Raúl Ilargi Meijer
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CWLF, yeah, that Ilargi guy is a crazy doomer, I betcha. Europe’s fine. Than again, I haven’t looked for 5 minutes, so you never know. Funny that mostly, exchanges are moves up in final trading, but both US and China did the exact opposite.
Chris, I don’t like using ‘organic’ in anything having to do with our economic system. Feels like blasphemy.
Greenpa et al,
I do think there are quite a few vey smart guys in Syriza -and in Popular Unity. But I also think some of the unity and friendships have taken a beating throughout 2015. Chances are that the entire bailout thing will be brought back on the table through the outcome of the upcoming elections. We’re not done.
I’m curious to see where Zoë Constantopooulou and Yanis Varoufakis end up. He insists he’s in it to stay. But he also says he won’t run with Tsipras. Who yesterday really offended Zoë. Can’t see either of them go with Lafazanis as a leader, either, though.
It all looks quite fluid to me. One thing’s certain: the protagonists need to sit down and talk. But ego’s may be too bruised to do that in time for the elections.
One last thing: Syriza under Tsipras had gone as far as it could. It was over no matter what. Elections were inevitable, not only because of changed relationships, but certainly also to find a way forward. And it’s very possible that Tsipras has calculated all that.
Long Varoufakis interview today in the Observer:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/23/yanis-varoufakis-convicted-high-treason-interview-greece-finance-minister-syrizaNew comment on the podcast thread posted a week ago:
August 16, 2015 at 8:48 am
Rogue EconomistJust thought I would let everyone know, this podcast with Nicole and Raul set all sorts of records in terms of listens. Over 4000 Listens in the first week.
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And of course I replied thusly:
August 16, 2015 at 9:55 am
Raúl Ilargi MeijerIt’s that charm thing.
xingu
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xingu
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H71,
A rally as a safe haven when all the currencies are perceived as not as safe. What happens next in your opinion? A strengthening dollar crushes debt holders and stocks?
Depends on how far you want to look into the future. The longer the less certain, obviously.
The stronger USD will crush EM first, then Europe, and it’s not good news for China, or the US economy, for that matter. But a few steps further, since US debt is so overwhelming, that can’t last either. It’ll be elites against the people everywhere then. How that plays out will differ from location to location. Far less firearms in Europe than the US, for example. Some countries will have fascist leaders. Some may go to war against each other. A large part of peaceful civilization will go. But not by next week. From a purely financial point of view, the dividing line is how much growth can be obtained per $1 of credit added to an economy. Many places are already below break even on that one. Overall, lots of falling apart.There’s no doubt I was veering into a large grey area. But then, that is exactly my point. Who has the capacity to decide purely political issues? Politicians. But who are they? How does one become one? In our present system(s), any power hungry nut can be elected. But that doesn’t make it right. The Troika-Greece talks are between an economist and a bunch of lawyers. Not the same skills, not the same language. In cases like this, the focus must be put on the highest leaders. Even if they are incompetent, they are the last resort. This gets deep into how our democracies work. They don’t.
Phil, I’m going to have to see. Quite aware of our limitations in face of the sheer size of those issues, though. We might want to opt for the smaller issues, because there we can make an actual difference. No easy options available.
“What I utterly fail to understand is; for what reason, can Greece not do, what Iceland did?”
Greece doesn’t have its own currency. Very different situation.
It’s also about 30 times as large, that should count for something.
Jim, to a very large extent that’s because it’s the Greek elite that has made the ‘mistakes’ that have led to where the country is now. It’s not the people here, or they wouldn’t be hungry and deprived of health care. Unless someone would want to argue they went on the biggest binge of all times?!
Now, one might want to argue that it”s the Greeks themselves that left these elites in place for far too long, but it’s the troika just as much that allowed that to happen. The ‘reforms’ they demand now should have been demanded at any time over the past 25 years. And weren’t.
There’s the Greeks, and then there’s the Greeks. And at the very moment the people finally screw up the courage to vote the elites out of power, whaddaya think happens? the troika demands them back.
Ludwig,
Wergeld is a nice theory. I think I like Zizek’s “superego” approach somewhat better, though it is largely similar:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/Slavoj-Zizek-greece-chance-europe-awaken
An ideal is gradually emerging from the European establishment’s reaction to the Greek referendum, the ideal best rendered by the headline of a recent Gideon Rachman column in the Financial Times: “Eurozone’s weakest link is the voters”.
In this ideal world, Europe gets rid of this “weakest link” and experts gain the power to directly impose necessary economic measures – if elections take place at all, their function is just to confirm the consensus of experts. The problem is that this policy of experts is based on a fiction, the fiction of “extend and pretend” (extending the payback period, but pretending that all debts will eventually be paid).
Why is the fiction so stubborn? It is not only that this fiction makes debt extension more acceptable to German voters; it is also not only that the write-off of the Greek debt may trigger similar demands from Portugal, Ireland, Spain. It is that those in power do not really want the debt fully repaid. The debt providers and caretakers of debt accuse the indebted countries of not feeling enough guilt – they are accused of feeling innocent. Their pressure fits perfectly what psychoanalysis calls “superego”: the paradox of the superego is that, as Freud saw it, the more we obey its demands, the more guilty we feel.
Imagine a vicious teacher who gives to his pupils impossible tasks, and then sadistically jeers when he sees their anxiety and panic. The true goal of lending money to the debtor is not to get the debt reimbursed with a profit, but the indefinite continuation of the debt, keeping the debtor in permanent dependency and subordination. For most of the debtors – for there are debtors and debtors. Not only Greece but also the US will not be able even theoretically to repay its debt, as is now publicly recognised. So there are debtors who can blackmail their creditors because they cannot be allowed to fail (big banks), debtors who can control the conditions of their repayment (the US government) and, finally, debtors who can be pushed around and humiliated (Greece).
Gee, I just read an entire Engdahl piece for the first time in years. Never do because he does NOT usually make (any) sense and has NOT provided accurate analysis for years. Engdahl’s a very loose cannon. This piece, again, is innuendo only and completely void of any proof. Not one shred. What does one make of that?
partica, john
I see nothing there that would indicate Greece still has the printing presses the drachmas were printed on.
From what I gather, see AEP and Helena Smith in today’s Debt Rattle, there has been friction about parallel currencies and what Yanis told AEP earlier this week about that.
Glennda
I’m set to make first major donation tomorrow at a clinic in Piraeus. Any goal is welcome. it’s hard to find things here, not in the least because I work at TAE all the time. But we’ll get it done. Very important to me. Big Responsibility. Which I take very serious. Spending other people’s money is not a light thing.
Craig,
but what change?
Ann,
How lovely to see you you have more of the exact same. Did you actually write that, or was it just copy and paste? And, you got a Nicole radar on somewhere? You’re more accurate with it than I am. I never have a clue when she’ll turn up. Keep me in the loop!
Craig,
How exactly was the TAE1 comments section different? It was still one per article…
Birdshak, I’m in the middle of the city here. ‘Fraid ag will have to wait. Sorry.
The link looks sensationalist to me, John. Old and young are in the same boat. In only because they’re all back living together. I was at Syntagma last night, and what struck me most apart from there being far too many people for my comfort, was that it was entirely peaceful and there was no tension in the air at all. Other than against Juncker. People tell me ever since Syriza took over, there have been no more riots. Tonight is a Yes demo, but they have no real leaders left. Greeks say Samaras and Venizelos are finished and who else is there? Could be interesting for sure.
Thanks V,
And you’re absolutely right. Don’t think I’ve sever seen so much mindless dribble floating to the top of the puddle. No-one of any ‘importance’ can issue one tiny fart without a 1000 so-called smart alternative bloggers reporting on it. Get a grip.
absolutely. Greenpa
China can print monopoly money up the wazoo, who’s going to protest? not western CBs who do the same only to a far lesser extent.
Something tells me Syriza has known this all along.
T-Bear:
A very astute observation. Tsipars cannot do it, the big NO, can’t even be seen as doing it. But at the same time, it will never be the entire Parliament. The other parties smell their shot at another stint in the Big House. Pro-euro demos are carefully scripted with flashy pamphlets and all, people tell me.
Nicole is of course very right – isn’t she always? – it’s about trust, as I wrote:
“None of these institutions, IMF, EU, ECB, has any raison d’être or any claim to fame unless there is explicit trust in what they represent. That trust is now gone, and it’s hard to see how it can ever be recovered.”
I might as well have said it’s impossible to see. We’ve passed beyond the trust horizon, we just don’t know it yet.
Greece can shake the EU on its foundations. France can topple it. The third dog in the bone fight is Italy. Spain can do a lot of damage.
tabarnac: yeah, there’s lots of it, I know, and I’m off to Athens tomorrow, so…
boogaloo: not sure that unhealthy is the issue, or perhaps we should say it relates to financial rather than physical health
koso man
I know what you’re saying, and I know it’s not just Greece, and I’m as much a victim of media focus as the rest, but just because it happens somewhere else too doesn’t mean it’s alright that it happens in Greece. The entire EU is immoral -or amoral-. So write to me about Kosovo, about what goes on where you live.
Thanks, Charles.
The Greeks are much better than Americans at community and sharing, or the misery would be much worse. They go a long way towards Twin Oaks. Whole families living on a single pension, that sort of thing. Entire hospitals more or less run by volunteers. And much more. But in a city things are harder at the same time. I know it’s not about money, but short term it’s not going to hurt. Hungry kids is a no-no.
tandy,
yeah, read that too last night. plus Ryan Gallagher’s piece:
https://notes.rjgallagher.co.uk/2015/06/sunday-times-snowden-china-russia-questions.html
Jeff,
If only I could remember. Doesn’t ring a bell right off the bat. That’s what you get with all the writing?! Maybe someone else knows? By all means, see if you can provide more clues, keywords etc.
Thanks for your donation.
Nicole addressed Wörgl here at TAE in Mitigating a Liquidity Crunch .
These two things contradict each other:
“I’m not a ninny. I know we are spoon-fed propaganda in the West.”
“I’m more concerned with Ukraine, a nation which has re-made and re-discovered itself over the past two years.”
Ed,
Our problem in the west is not Russia’s propaganda machine, it’s our own. We get fed the exact same made up narrative from a thousand sources. I for one am grateful that with RT there’s at least one counter source. The situation is so unbalanced that being critical of RT posting literal quotes from an Italian interview with Putin seems pretty silly from where I’m sitting. The entire Russia as aggressor story has been swallowed hook line and sinker on no evidence whatsoever, virtually all across the west. That is what we should be worried about. It’s also probably why you type ‘Russian separatists’ without blinking an eye.
