Jun 092024
 


George Grosz Apocalyptic landscape 1936

 

EU Could Stop Ukraine Conflict In 24 Hours – Orban (RT)
Macron Building ‘Coalition’ To Send Troops Into Ukraine (RT)
Macron Faces Crushing Defeat In EU Elections (RMX)
NATO Chief Scraps €100 Billion Ukraine Fund Plan (RT)
European Union: From Peace To Bellicosity (Dionísio)
Russia Vows Immediate Countermeasures Should West Take Its Assets (TASS)
Scott Ritter: Another American Voice For Sanity And Peace Cancelled (SCF Op-ed)
Scott Ritter Silenced by Liberal Authoritarians (Patrick Lawrence)
2024 Hillary vs Trump – Not Biden? (Martin Armstrong)
Hillary Clinton Slammed For Using D-Day To Call Trump Hitler (MN)
Alex Jones to lose InfoWars (RT)
Will Hunter Take the Stand? (Turley)
New Texas GOP Platform Calls For Secession Vote, Resistance (ZH)
Israel Kills Over 200 Palestinians to Rescue 4 Captives (Mondoweiss)

 

 

 

 

No convicted felon

 

 

David Sacks

 

 

Putin diverse world
https://twitter.com/i/status/1799219256854261777

 

 

Pepe
https://twitter.com/i/status/1799450850102051172

 

 

Maher Bezos
https://twitter.com/i/status/1799284489207624195

 

 

Tucker Massie AIPAC
https://twitter.com/i/status/1799237579071770927

 

 


Dostoevsky

 

 

 

 

He keeps making sense. That’s why they want to bar him.

EU Could Stop Ukraine Conflict In 24 Hours – Orban (RT)

The West is “within centimeters of a direct conflict” with Russia, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has warned, noting that both the EU and US need pro-peace forces to replace those currently in power in order to avoid this scenario. In an interview with TV2 on Friday, just two days before the European Parliament elections, Orban said that with all the discussions regarding sending additional weapons and even troops to Ukraine, the West “is on a straight road to war.” The prime minister noted that when the conflict began in 2022, most EU countries, including Germany, vowed to only send non-lethal aid to Kiev, such as helmets – and “there was no question of supplying equipment suitable for killing human life to the Ukrainians.” Since then, however, the Western powers have supplied Kiev with a wide range of weaponry and ammunition.

“At the rate this is going, it is not an exaggeration to say that we are centimeters away from the final stop when Western European or American soldiers appear in the territory of Ukraine, we are within inches of a direct collision [with Russia] at this moment,” he warned, lamenting that most leaders currently in power in the West “don’t see it, they want war.” He added, however, that the point of no return has not been reached yet, and to prevent a war with Russia from breaking out, there needs to be a change in Western governments. “We are at the penultimate moment to reverse the outbreak of the war. For this we need to achieve change in Brussels and Washington… If the European leaders wanted peace today, within 24 hours there would be a ceasefire at the front line.

All they would have to do was to say: Dear Ukrainians, a ceasefire is necessary, we need to stop, we will not give more weapons and money until there is a ceasefire and peace negotiations,” Orban said. He added that there would be a greater chance of reaching a peace deal if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November and “ends this war within 24 hours,” as he has pledged to do. Orban has insisted that Hungary should refrain from taking part in any potential NATO action in Ukraine, arguing that the military bloc was created with the purpose of defending member states from aggressors, not waging war outside its territory. Hungary has consistently criticized the Western approach to the Ukraine conflict, and opposed NATO’s funding and arming of Ukraine, as well as the sweeping sanctions on Russia – instead calling for a ceasefire and diplomatic solution.

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Macron makes no sense. So he’s popular..

Macron Building ‘Coalition’ To Send Troops Into Ukraine (RT)

French President Emmanuel Macron has gone beyond merely talking about the possibility of deploying NATO troops to Ukraine, taking steps to form a coalition of military trainers who would work inside the former Soviet republic preparing Kiev’s soldiers to fight Russian forces. “We want to have a coalition for reasons of efficiency, and several of our partners have already given their agreement,” Macron told reporters on Friday in Paris. “We will use the coming days to finalize the largest possible coalition capable of responding to Ukraine’s request.” Macron did not identify the countries, other than France, that have committed to sending trainers to Ukraine. He argued that dispatching specialists to do training work inside Ukraine should not provoke a Russian response.

“We are not at war with Russia,” Macron said. “We do not want an escalation, but we want to do everything in our power to help Ukraine resist. Is it an escalation if Ukraine asks us to train mobilized soldiers on its soil? No, that does not mean deploying people – European or allied soldiers – on the front line.” Macron made the comments after hosting a visit by Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky. He announced on Thursday that France will send Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Kiev and train Ukrainian pilots. It will reportedly take until around the end of this year to have pilots ready to fly the warplanes. French forces have already trained around 10,000 Ukrainian troops in France and other NATO countries. Lithuania and Estonia have also publicly suggested that they would be willing to deploy instructors inside Ukraine. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said last month that NATO trainers were already operating in the battle-torn country.

Russian officials have warned that any foreign military personnel in Ukraine would be considered legitimate targets for attack, regardless of their duties and locations. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Macron’s “belligerent rhetoric” and provocative statements had escalated the Ukraine crisis. Macron began making public comments about the possibility of troop deployments to Ukraine in February, triggering pushback from some NATO allies and a Kremlin warning that this step would inevitably lead to a direct conflict with Russia. US President Joe Biden reportedly rejected Macron’s proposal to send instructors to Kiev, citing concerns that they could be in the line of fire and spark an escalation.

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..popular in Brussels, that is. But not at home..

“..unchanged at 15 percent. At the same time, Marine Le Pen’s party is polling at 33 percent..”

Macron Faces Crushing Defeat In EU Elections (RMX)

President Emmanuel Macron’s party will suffer a historic defeat in the European Union elections on Sunday, Hungarian news portal Origo writes. It is not hard to guess that after this huge defeat, he will take even more refuge in foreign policy. Having failed in his own country, he is trying to achieve unquantifiable and non-existent successes in the international world. According to Wednesday’s opinion poll by IFOP-Fiducial, Macron’s party has been unable to improve four days before the European Parliament elections, standing unchanged at 15 percent. At the same time, Marine Le Pen’s party is polling at 33 percent. No governing party in France has lost by such a humiliating margin since 1979, the first European Parliament elections on party lists. True, it is also rare for a governing party to win what can be considered a roughly midterm election; the last time this happened was in 2009 when then President Nicolas Sarkozy won the EU parliament election.

Six French parties are now in the running for the European Parliament. After Marine Le Pen (RN) and Macron (a coalition of four parties), the Socialist Party will be third, with 13.5 percent, but they could easily overtake Macron in the end. The communist, anti-Semitic, pro-Muslim Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party could get 8 percent, the classic Gaullist, center-right party 7.5 percent and Éric Zemmour’s anti-immigration party, formed just two years ago and unrivaled among young people, 6 percent. IFOP’s seat estimates suggest that the far-left Green Party, still at 5 percent but in steady decline, will be eliminated. Voter turnout is now expected to slightly exceed 50 percent. Macron is currently midway through his second five-year term as president, and according to the French constitution, he cannot run for a third after his current term expires in 2027.

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“..since the aid was to be collected over five years, this meant NATO “expects the hostilities to continue for this period.”

NATO Chief Scraps €100 Billion Ukraine Fund Plan (RT)

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has ditched a five-year plan to provide Ukraine with €100 billion ($108 billion) in military aid after pushback from members of the bloc, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. In April, several Western media outlets reported, citing diplomatic sources, that Stoltenberg had presented a draft long-term military support plan for Ukraine, designed in part to guard against any cut in US support if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House. Earlier this year, Trump called for restricting aid to Ukraine to loans and insisted that European NATO members match Washington’s level of assistance to Kiev. The Stoltenberg plan was reportedly been questioned by several NATO members who sought clarification from the bloc’s secretary general on where and how the enormous sum of money involved would be obtained.

The unnamed officials told Politico last month that the plan was “confusing” and that the €100 million figure would be revised. Earlier this week, a NATO diplomat told the FT that Ukrainian authorities were “not super thrilled” with the idea either, pointing out that the package would in practice only duplicate bilateral and EU-managed commitments and not actually represent fresh cash. Instead, Stoltenberg is expected to submit an updated plan to provide Kiev with lethal and non-lethal aid of around €40 billion annually, the sources told Bloomberg. The new proposal will reportedly be discussed by NATO defense ministers next week. Under the new plan, which is aimed at providing more transparency about what Ukraine’s supporters contribute, the amount of assistance from each NATO member would be determined on the basis of a percentage of their GDP.

The US would reportedly account for nearly half of the aid, with the other 31 members providing the rest. The sources also told the news outlet that Türkiye has cautioned that any coordination of military assistance for Ukraine could create the perception of greater involvement of the bloc in the conflict. Last month, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that Budapest was opposed to the initial plan, explaining that since the aid was to be collected over five years, this meant NATO “expects the hostilities to continue for this period.” The diplomat added that Hungary does not plan to participate in arming Ukraine or training its soldiers. The country’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, has expressed the view that NATO is getting closer to war with Russia every week.

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“..a non-existent Europe will be sung, which, while celebrating “European values”, demands the fracture of continental Europe..”

European Union: From Peace To Bellicosity (Dionísio)

[..] this is what hurts to hear from Euroenthusiasts and Brussels fanboys. But, how is it that your favorite enchanting tale is nothing more than a deferred dream, whose assumptions indicate that, after all, this postponement is eternal, because, within the framework of the European division of labor, it is not up to the peripheral countries to develop high value added activities? And nothing highlights this reality more than the data regarding wage convergence: to the promise of future convergence, it was not just the Portuguese economy that did not live up to it, but all the peripheral economies of the European Union. Growing up, they were never able to converge, with the distances between those in the south and those in central and northern Europe almost always maintaining or increasing. The fact is that the only small and peripheral country that dared to break with this logic was Greece. Today, we all know where Greece ended up.

They accused the country of stealing, lying, falsifying, all because the respective government committed the “crime” of wanting to pay its people the same as workers in central and northern European countries earned. The largest European countries, which constantly exceed deficit limits, have never been subject to the “excessive deficit procedure” and austerity measures to correct it. Furthermore, in the Portuguese case, between funds received and the purchase of products and services provided by central and northern Europe, between 1996 and 2023, this country gave more than it received, explaining the real meaning of this European adventure. According to the Bank of Portugal, between what came in and what went out, the country had a negative balance of 61 billion euros. In conclusion, the carrot that attracts the donkey, European structural funds, are nothing more than disguised loans, disguised in the form of “investment”, but whose return is worth more to those who give them – the countries of northern and central Europe – than for those who receive them.

The “investment” in funds thus constitutes a double benefit: economic and political control over the beneficiaries of the subsidies; economic return in the medium and long term. The fact that these funds are allocated under strategies (Lisbon strategy; Strategy 2020 and 2030) designed in Brussels, determines that they do not aim to solve the real problems of peripheral countries. European funds aim to solve the problems that peripheral countries have so that they can be used as instruments to enrich central countries. The instrumentalization that the countries of central and northern Europe make of the eastern countries, with regard to the strategy of domination of Russian and Slavic lands, finds parallels in the countries of southern and Mediterranean Europe, namely by taking advantage of the intercontinental geographic links that such countries they mean, in addition to their significance as destination markets and as reserves of qualified and cheap labor, which is formed, satisfactorily, with the European Union’s own funds.

It is, therefore, imperative to dismantle and denounce this cycle of exploitation, whose benefits are not distributed equitably and which tends to maintain relative differences over time, a difference that aims to keep this cycle untouchable. Furthermore, coupled with this political-economic dimension, another one is added, which the conflict taking place in Ukraine unmasks. Peripheral and distant countries were suddenly elected as enemies of Russia, without their people being taken into account, who unconsciously watched the transfer of their funds to the war effort. The most tragic thing is that whoever denounces the failure of this European project is accused of being “anti-European”, as if this were the only possible formulation, as if human history did not have cemeteries full of inevitable stories. When this European Union enters its bellicose phase, it is more fundamental than ever to talk about a Europe of peace, cooperation and friendship between people. A Europe in which openness does not mean submission.

The upcoming elections for the European parliament will be yet another moment during which very little will be said about the European Union, its autocratic character, its macrocephalism. Instead, a non-existent Europe will be sung, which, while celebrating “European values”, demands the fracture of continental Europe. While celebrating “union”, it forces a country to give up it’s history and replace it with a whitewashing revisionism of their fascist past. While it demands the surrender of its economy, it replaces it with eternal dependence from the political power of monopolies, represented in Brussels. Belonging to the European Union begins to resemble those dreams that delight us while we sleep, but when we wake up, we realize that they are just that, dreams. The European project cannot survive even the light of day, much less when one wakes up.

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“..including in Europe. There is much more of their property and funds in Russia than America’s..”

Russia Vows Immediate Countermeasures Should West Take Its Assets (TASS)

Moscow will not wait to retaliate to the confiscation of its assets in the West, with a slew of political and economic countermeasures in its holster, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told a briefing on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). “They are planning to pledge Russia’s virtual reserves without preliminary permission, with future revenues from them not only to be immediately pocketed by the West but also spent on some other military ventures aimed against Russia. We will naturally respond appropriately to such steps, as we have always done. We have a range of political, economic countermeasures against those attempting to get hold of Russian reserves,” she said. “One should think long and hard before deciding to go ahead with this as countermeasures will follow,” the diplomat added.

In May, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on compensation for damage caused to Russia and its Central Bank due to the US’ unfriendly actions, Zakharova noted. “A similar mechanism may be applied to other countries as well, including in Europe. There is much more of their property and funds in Russia than America’s. Moreover, the US and the EU have already proven that they can no longer be regarded as reliable jurisdictions for foreign investors, whose investment can at any time be confiscated or stolen,” she said, adding that “those actions have no legal basis behind them, being simply outright theft.”

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“In the laudable spirit of 1930s U.S. Marine Major General Smedley D Butler, they have shown how “war is a racket”.

Scott Ritter: Another American Voice For Sanity And Peace Cancelled (SCF Op-ed)

The sinister prevention of Scott Ritter travelling to speak and broadcast from Russia this week by United States authorities is a sure sign that the Western imperialist warmongers are afraid of the truth. Indeed, there is a dark shadow cast on their pretensions of “democracy and freedom” – ironically in a week that supposedly commemorates the D-Day landings and the historic fight against fascism. The former U.S. Marine and United Nations weapons inspector has gained worldwide respect as an independent political commentator and analyst. Ritter has become a powerful critic of the United States and NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine. He has staunchly appealed for dialogue and diplomacy, warning that the reckless provocations by Washington and its allies towards Russia are driving the world to a nuclear conflagration. This week, Ritter was due to fly from New York to Istanbul, on his way to attend the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia.

The annual forum is attended by thousands of delegates from all over the world. He was hauled off the flight by U.S. police officers and his passport was confiscated before being escorted from the airport. There was no official explanation for the draconian interdiction to his travel plans. The U.S. State Department refused to comment on the matter, saying it was a private matter. However, there is no doubt, whatsoever, that the humiliating move was politically organized by powerful people, as Ritter claims. It was aimed at preventing him from going to Russia simply because of his outspoken political views. That is an incredible infringement of democratic rights and a revelation of the dark forces at work, which are now increasingly public and blatant. The incident is a grave illustration of how legally protected free speech rights are being trampled on in the United States and other NATO countries. Numerous other instances of censorship and “cancelling” are testimony to the intensity of the information war that the Western states are waging, not just against supposed foreign adversaries but against their own citizens.

Millions of Western citizens are being denied access to important independent news and other media simply based on official designation by unaccountable Western authorities that said information is “Russian disinformation”. Russian news outlets such as RT and Sputnik are banned from being accessed through normal channels. Scott Ritter is one of several respected American voices of sanity and genuine intelligence who are banished from so-called mainstream Western media. Other figures include Professors John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs, former ambassador to the Soviet Union Jack Matlock, former CIA analysts Ray McGovern and Larry Johnson and former senior Pentagon experts Doug Macgregor and Earl Rasmussen. All of these figures are articulate and informed critics of the U.S.-led NATO proxy war in Ukraine. They have been eminently capable of explaining how the war was fomented through illicit intervention in Ukraine over many years and how the prospects for a diplomatic and peaceful settlement are deliberately being sabotaged by Washington and its NATO vassals.

In the laudable spirit of 1930s U.S. Marine Major General Smedley D Butler, they have shown how “war is a racket”. The war in Ukraine has been sold to the world based on a fetid pile of lies and Russophobic prejudices. A heinous fraud is taking place, putting the world’s future at imminent peril. Scott Ritter, like the other voices cited above, is never or rarely interviewed on the corporate-controlled Western media channels precisely for the reason that the critical analysis he and they articulate debunks the war propaganda emanating from the U.S. government and its NATO allies – propaganda that is pumped and laundered non-stop to the Western public and presented as “news”. No dissenting voices are permitted under the tyranny that is Western imperialist warmongering. Just ask Robert Fico, the Slovakian prime minister who was shot and seriously wounded by a gunman on May 15 because, as Fico believes, he opposes the NATO war against Russia.

As the Irish playwright George Bernard Shaw once said, assassination is just an extreme form of censorship. A demonstration of the nefarious propaganda system was seen this week during the 80th anniversary of the D-Day Normandy landings. U.S. President Joe Biden and other Western leaders used the commemorative event in France to issue doom-laden warnings that “democracy is under attack” and to portray the war in Ukraine as a re-run of the standing up to Nazi Germany in World War Two with Russia projected as the reincarnation of Hitler’s Third Reich. The whole D-Day pomp and ceremony was a travesty. And yet such nauseating distortion of history was relayed to Western audiences by the likes of CNN and BBC, to mention just two channels, as if it were a noble reflection. Democracy and freedom are under attack alright – from Biden and the rest of the Western ruling elite whose basis of oligarchic power is increasingly appearing as outright fascism – albeit with “liberal” sounding rhetoric.

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“..I sense things may get a great deal worse from here on out..”

Scott Ritter Silenced by Liberal Authoritarians (Patrick Lawrence)

It is not difficult to be astonished these days, given how many things going on around us warrant astonishment. To pull something out of a hat at random, the Democratic apparatus has openly, brazenly politicized the judicial system—weaponized it, if you prefer—in its determination to destroy Donald Trump and now has the temerity to warn in the gravest terms that a second Trump term would mean… the politicization of American justice. Again at random, in The Washington Post’s June 7 editions George Will tells us President Biden “has provided the most progressive governance in U.S. history.” Yes, he wrote that. Give in to your astonishment. It is interesting in this case to note that, during the reign of Ronald Reagan 40 years ago, our George thought big government was bad, bad, bad. Now it is a fine thing that Biden is “minimizing the market’s role by maximizing the government’s role in allocating society’s resources and opportunities.”

Apart from turning his own argument hourglass upside-down, this assessment of our swiftly declining president is preposterously, right-before-your-eyes false. You cannot tell the AC’s from the DC’s these days. But this is not the half of it in the way of astonishing events, things done, things said and such like. Last week, as many readers will have noticed, Scott Ritter, the former weapons inspector and now a widely followed commentator, was about to board a plane bound for Turkey when armed police officers stopped him, confiscated his passport and escorted him out of Kennedy International Airport. Ritter was booked to transit through Istanbul for St. Petersburg, where he planned to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual gathering. Here is Ritter recounting this incident in an interview with RT International: “I was boarding the flight. Three officers pulled me aside. They took my passport. When asked why, they said, “Orders of the State Department.” They had no further information for me. They pulled my bags off the plane, then escorted me out of the airport. They kept my passport.”

No passport, no freedom to travel, no explanation. I have it on good authority that Ritter subsequently advised other Americans who were to attend the St. Petersburg events not to risk it. I have had countless conversations over many years in which the question considered has been “Is this as bad as the 1950s?” The matter has been especially vital since the Russiagate fiasco began during the Clinton–Trump campaign season in 2016. It was in the ensuing years that the authoritarianism implicit in American liberalism from the first burst upon us like some weird grotesque out of a Dr. Seuss book. I always urge caution when invoking comparisons between our corruptions and ideological extremes and those of the McCarthy era. Hyperbole and exaggeration never serve one’s understanding or one’s argument. But the confiscation of Scott Ritter’s passport on the instructions of Antony Blinken’s State Department seems to me a radical step too far.

The liberal authoritarians now in command of the nation’s major institutions, the House of Representatives among the only exceptions, have just signaled they are quite prepared to act at least as undemocratically as the House Un–American Activities crowd, the FBI and the rest of the national-security state did during the 1950s to preserve their political hegemony. When I think of confiscated passports I think of Paul Robeson, the gifted singer, the courageous political dissenter, the civil rights advocate—whose documents were seized in 1950 because he refused to indulge in the Cold War paranoia that was already prevalent. His performing career collapsed and he nearly went broke before a Supreme Court decision restored them in 1958. Or I think of all the screenwriters, novelists, poets, painters and activists whose papers were canceled while they were in Mexico—or in France or in Sweden or in England—to avoid HUAC and expatriation turned into exile.

And when I am finished thinking of these people, about whom there is a rich, inspiring literature, I think of how far America descended into a derangement we tend to look back upon in some combination of wonder, derision and contempt. We can no longer look back in this fashion. The revocation of Scott Ritter’s passport, along with the destruction of the judicial system, the myth-spinning about our purported leaders and all the rest pushes this in our faces. Let us give this a moment’s thought to see if we can determine what is likely to be in store. Why Scott Ritter, I have wondered these past few days. Of all the dissident commentators of too many stripes to count, why Scott?

I reply to myself, “Because Ritter is a former Marine Corps intelligence officer, a former U.N. arms monitor in Iraq and he enjoys big-time credibility as a patriotic American.” His voice, in short, is the sort that can carry weight in sectors of the voting public that may well prove key in determining the outcome in the Trump–Biden election this Nov. 5. Viewed in this context, I take the full-frontal suppression of Ritter’s rights last week as very likely tied to the liberals’ political prospects, other than brilliant as they are at this point. Censorship, suppression of various kinds taking various forms, “canceling”—these are nothing new, of course. But I sense things may get a great deal worse from here on out.

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“I still cannot see how the Neocons will allow Trump to win. There goes their dream of World War III..”

2024 Hillary vs Trump – Not Biden? (Martin Armstrong)

The press is starting to actually report that Biden is losing it. This is how they float a balloon to see if it will fly. The August Democratic Convention has been rumored for some time that they will DRAFT someone else to replace Biden. He swore he would never debate Trump. This may be setting the stage for him to step aside. The Neocons are delighted with Hillary, for she has been among the Neocons all along. She will have no problem nuking Russia. This will certainly make things interesting. Bill Clinton actually had cigar sex with an intern in the Oval Office when he was President! There was a phone call when he was getting into a Hummer, and he commented on the phone that he was sitting on the floor in the Oval Office on the seal of the USA at that moment. As the Washington story went, that is why the Republicans made a big deal out of his actions. Everyone had encounters with staff or lobbyists.

The staff of John McCain was very concerned about him and a lobbyist. However, Bill Clinton lied to the American people about it on national television. He paid off Paula Jones $850,000. That was far more than Trump paid Stormy Daniels, who was NOT even an intern as Monica and the famous blue dress. Clinton’s $850,000 payment to get rid of a sexual harassment claim while he’s President had NO criminal court charges for what was the same thing. Why was Clinton deemed exempt from what happened with Trump and Stormy?” The Democrats have been praying that the Criminal Convictions of Trump on these issues, which have nothing to do with his performance as President, are greatly disappointing. People are seeing through this onslaught against Trump, which the Neocons keep pushing for World War III ASAP. A vote for the Democrats is clearly a vote for World War III. If Hillary gets in, you better dig a bunker real deep under your house.

The polling averages haven’t budged in the direction that Democrats were hoping. At RealClearPolitics, Trump led Biden in head-to-head matchups by 0.8 percent on May 30, the day of the guilty verdict. Now, his lead is at 1.1 percent. In five-way surveys that include minor candidates, Trump’s lead at RCP has dropped from 2.2 percent on May 30 to 2.1 percent now. FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls that include Biden, Trump, and Kennedy show the Republican’s lead slipping marginally from 1.7 percent on May 30 to 1.4 percent now. Our computer has projected a Republican win on 4 out of 6 models. Two are quite dramatic. I still cannot see how the Neocons will allow Trump to win. There goes their dream of World War III. We are running our models on the likely outcome. This may end up being very surprising to many. We will let you know when it is ready.

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For decades, comparing someone to Hitler was taboo. Now it’s normal.

Hillary Clinton Slammed For Using D-Day To Call Trump Hitler (MN)

Two time presidential loser Hillary Clinton used the 80th anniversary of D-Day as a way of attacking Donald Trump and comparing him to Hitler. Hillary directly compared the fight against Nazi Germany during World War Two to voting against Trump in the upcoming election. Worse still, Clinton equated those who will vote against Trump to soldiers who put their lives on the line in the Normandy landings. Hillary disabled the comments on the post because the consensus among pretty much everyone who saw it is that it is disgusting and completely lacking in respect. As we highlighted earlier, Joe Biden couldn’t stay awake in France at the ceremony to mark the 80th year since the historic D-Day invasion of Normandy, France on June 6, 1944. Biden also used the occasion to attack Trump and also compare voting against him to fighting against Hitler.

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He’ll be around..

Alex Jones to lose InfoWars (RT)

Right-wing commentator Alex Jones has agreed to liquidate his assets in a bid to pay a court-imposed fine of $1.5 billion. Among Jones’ assets is the parent company of InfoWars, a platform used by the shock-jock to broadcast news, views, and conspiracy theories for more than two decades. Jones filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2022, after a Connecticut judge ordered him to pay the families of the Sandy Hook massacre victims $1.5 billion in damages. Jones had claimed on air that the mass shooting – in which a gunman killed 20 elementary school children and six adults – was staged by the US government in a plot to usher in draconian gun control laws. In filings made to a Texas bankruptcy court on Thursday, Jones’ lawyers requested that the Chapter 11 bankruptcy be converted into a Chapter 7 liquidation, as “there is no reasonable prospect of a successful reorganization” of his debts.

According to court documents, Jones’ assets will not be enough to cover the $1.5 billion fine. However, the Sandy Hook families agreed last year that Jones could liquidate his holdings in order to pay a minimum of $85 million over the next 10 years. In a motion filed earlier this week, the families stated that they want Jones to liquidate Free Speech Systems LLC, the parent company of the InfoWars platform, which has also sought bankruptcy protection. Jones founded InfoWars in 1999, and by 2017, the website was receiving around 10 million monthly visits – eclipsing many mainstream news sites. In his nightly broadcasts on InfoWars, Jones has launched tirades against Democrats, liberals, globalist politicians and NGOs, international financiers, and anyone else he accuses of helping usher in the ‘New World Order’ – a tyrannical system of global governance predicted by American conspiracy theorists since the 1980s.

In an interview with Jones earlier this year, American journalist Tucker Carlson noted that many of the Texan firebrand’s predictions – that the World Trade Center would be destroyed in 2001, that the federal government would introduce mask mandates during the Covid-19 pandemic, and that “a giant war” would break out in Ukraine in February 2022 – came true. Speaking on InfoWars last weekend, Jones claimed that the American “deep state” had orchestrated the legal campaign against him, adding that he was “out of options.” On Friday’s broadcast, Jones said that InfoWars would likely close down within several weeks, but that he may “relaunch” under a different brand.

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“The risk of testimony is that Hunter could burst into flames on the stand and torch any chance to nullify the crime..”

Will Hunter Take the Stand? (Turley)

This weekend, the Hunter Biden team is reportedly debating whether to have him take the stand on Monday, a move rife with risk. Most criminal defendants avoid such appearances given the potential damage of a withering cross examination. Those risks were evident in the recent testimony of Hunter’s daughter, Naomi, which backfired badly on key points. I have sometimes been in the minority among defense attorneys and legal commentators on this question. In celebrity trials, a jury can feel alienated or even disrespected by a defendant not taking the stand. That was the case, in my view, with Martha Stewart. When a defendant brings forth a host of others to speak for him or her, the refusal to testify can become more glaring and concerning. Hunter Biden is in that position. He has had a host of relatives testify, including his daughter Naomi. When you put your daughter on the stand and subject her to a tough cross examination, many jurors can wonder how you can stay safely behind the defendant’s table.

Yet, Naomi’s testimony is precisely why defense counsel are risk adverse on the question. She gave moving testimony on her love for her father and his struggle with addiction. However, her attempt to establish that Hunter was not using drugs at the time of his gun purchase fell apart on cross examination. She testified that she was thrilled during this period with how “healthy” and clean her father appeared: “He seemed like the clearest I had seen him since my uncle died…I told him I was so proud of him and I was proud to be able to introduce Peter to him.”

Prosecutors showed her text messages that told a different story. In some, Naomi appears alarmed by her father’s conduct and lack of responses. On October 18, for example, she texted “I’m sorry daddy, I can’t take this, I don’t know what to say.” That message coincides with messages from Hunter seeking to score drugs from a guy named Mookie and stating that he was doing crack in a car. In other messages, Naomi complains that he was not responding. She finally received a response when, at 2 a.m, Hunter asked her to have her boyfriend drop off keys to a truck for him in Manhattan. Naomi was asked if she saw the drug residue or paraphernalia in the truck. Any cross examination would focus less on Naomi than it would on Mookie.

Any decision to put Hunter on the stand is obviously dependent on your defense strategy. As I have previously written, all of the defenses suggested by Abby Lowell in his opening argument collapsed within two days. That includes the suggestion that someone else checked the box on the form denying that Hunter was using drugs. These claims seem so unbelievable and unsupported that they might insult a jury. However, the real strategy in this open-and-shut case appears to be simple jury nullification. The defense is trying to get one or more jurors to ignore the law and the evidence to acquit Biden. Nullification efforts in the case appear to be a combination of both political and social association. First and foremost, this is Bidentown. It is the hometown of President Joe Biden and voted overwhelmingly for him in past elections. It is the opposite of the Manhattan trial of former President Donald Trump. This is the best possible jury pool for a Biden.

Second, all of the jurors testified to knowing someone with drug problems. Hunter has written moving accounts of his struggle with addiction. Some jurors may resist convicting someone who has seemingly overcome the scourge of addiction. So, if this is a nullification strategy, does Hunter testifying help or hurt? The answer is that it could seal the deal or shatter it with jurors. Hunter will make a good witness on his struggle to overcome drugs and alcohol abuse. He can claim little or no memory of the gun store purchase. Hearing from him directly can establish a connection, even a bond, with jurors that could reinforce a nullification vote. However, it will also subject him to cross examination by prosecutors who have been lethal in their well-planned and well-executed case. They can delve into his texts and the later intervention by his family to deal with his self-destructive lifestyle. He also faces the potential of triggering new criminal offenses through perjury.

That latter concern is particularly real after the formal referral of three House committees to Attorney General Merrick Garland. Hunter is accused of lying to Congress in his recent testimony on key issues under investigation. While many expect Garland to ignore the referral to protect the President and his family, the allegations are compelling and the Justice Department has previously prosecuted individuals in cases with far less support. This would appear a relatively easy perjury prosecution, but the politics may be insurmountable for Garland. Most attorneys would advise Hunter to remain behind the defense table and not take the stand. After all, this is a great jury rendering a verdict on a Biden in Bidentown with the First Lady seated behind him for much of the trial. They just need one. The risk of testimony is that Hunter could burst into flames on the stand and torch any chance to nullify the crime. We will know soon. However, if Hunter checks this box and testifies, it is the one decision that he will not be able to blame on others.

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The Texas Stock Exchange intrigues me.

New Texas GOP Platform Calls For Secession Vote, Resistance (ZH)

Reflecting plummeting patience with overstepping federal overlords, the Texas Republican Party has adopted two platform planks that call for legislators to assert state sovereignty, and to schedule a secession referendum in the next general election after November’s. “This historic vote at the 2024 Republican Party of Texas Convention represents a substantial shift towards enhancing state sovereignty and exploring the potential for Texas to operate as an independent nation,” said the Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) in a statement. “It reflects the growing sentiment among Texans for greater autonomy and the protection of our rights against federal overreach.” Fittingly, that historic vote took place in San Antonio — home of the Alamo, aka “the cradle of Texas liberty.” Though it represented a setback, the 1836 Battle of the Alamo was a key chapter in the fight for independence that culminated in Texas becoming a self-governing republic.

The first plank asserts that the US government is infringing on powers reserved to Texas and all other states, and calls for unwarranted federal laws to be thwarted by Texas government. It also affirms the right of Texas to secede: “Pursuant to Article 1, Section 1, of the Texas Constitution, the federal government has impaired our right of local self-government. Therefore, federally mandated legislation that infringes upon the 10th Amendment rights of Texas shall be ignored, opposed, refused, and nullified. Texas retains the right to secede from the United States, and the Texas Legislature should be called upon to pass a referendum consistent thereto and pass the Texas Sovereignty Act as filed in the 88th Legislative Regular Session as HB 384.”

The second plank is a pointed directive to put the question of secession to the people of Texas in the next general election: “The Texas Legislature should pass a bill in its next session requiring a referendum in the next General Election for the people of Texas to determine whether or not the State of Texas should reassert its status as an independent nation. This referendum should be a legislative priority.” From the San Antonio convention, here’s a brief but interesting clip of the Texas Nationalist Movement’s Nate Smith speaking in support of the independence-minded platform planks — and ably fielding a question from a delegate who suggests TNM is guilty of treason.

We’d have liked to hear Smith answer his critic’s attempted second question — as to whether Smith had recited the Pledge of Allegiance earlier that day as part of convention rituals. It’s likely the questioner would have next pointed to the pledge’s reference to “one nation…indivisible.” In making a case for why patriots shouldn’t pledge allegiance, Brian McGlinchey has argued that, of several objectionable components of the pledge, “‘indivisible’ should give greatest offense to American patriots. The very existence of the United States — created by secession from the British empire — is a testament to political divisibility as a foundational human right…By reciting the Pledge of Allegiance and proclaiming the United States of America ‘indivisible,’ Americans disclaim their human right of self-determination.”

The Texas Nationalist Movement’s GOP convention success comes on the heels of a state Republican Party controversy over the issue. Despite TNM having amassed more than 139,000 signatures requesting that a secession question be placed on the March 5 primary ballot, the Texas GOP’s leadership refused to include it. TNM appealed to the state supreme court, which refused to hear the controversy. The party chair who presided over that decision, Matt Rinaldi, is out. Now, party’s top two officials are both signers of the “Texas First Pledge.” In addition to promising to place the interest of Texans “before any other nation, state, political entity, organization, or individual,” signatories commit to bringing about a secession referendum and, if it is approved by a majority of Texans, to work for an expeditious exit from the union.

After seceding from Mexico, Texas was an independent country from 1836 to 1845 and, economically, is extraordinarily well-suited for independence today. It’s by far the largest oil producer of any US state, accounting for a whopping 42% of American production, with no other state exceeding even 10%. It has deep-water ports, abundant agriculture, and is a major high-tech hub. There’s fixin’ to be another feather in Texas’s hat. As we examined earlier this week, the booming Lone Star State economy — and rising aggravation over compliance costs and woke regulations — has spurred BlackRock, Citadel Securities and other investors to back a new challenger to the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq: the Texas Stock Exchange.

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“..there are 120 captives still held in the Gaza Strip, including 43 who have been killed since October, many reportedly by Israel’s own forces..”

Israel Kills Over 200 Palestinians to Rescue 4 Captives (Mondoweiss)

At least 210 Palestinians were killed and hundreds of others were injured on Saturday [June 8] in the central Gaza Strip, in what Israel is celebrating as a “heroic” military operation to rescue four Israeli captives that were being held in Gaza. Palestinian media reported intense bombardment in the early afternoon local time in various areas in the Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip. Video footage from the main market in the Nuseirat refugee camp showed crowds of Palestinian civilians fleeing under the sound of heavy artillery fire. Al Jazeera reporter Anas al-Sharif reported that Israeli forces “infiltrated” the Nuseirat refugee camp in trucks disguised as humanitarian aid trucks. The Gaza government media office said in a statement that Israeli forces launched an “unprecedented brutal attack on the Nuseirat refugee camp” directly targeting civilians, and that ambulances and civil defense crews were unable to reach the area and evacuate the wounded due to the intensity of the bombing.

The media office added that according to its count, at least 210 Palestinians were killed and an estimated 400 others were injured during the Israeli operation. Video footage published on social media showed dozens of bodies of men, women and children lying in the streets in the Nuseirat area, as well as bloodied and injured civilians being rushed to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah. Al Jazeera quoted Dr Tanya Haj-Hassan with Doctors Without Borders as saying the emergency department at Al-Aqsa Hospital “is a complete bloodbath … It looks like a slaughterhouse.” “The images and videos that I’ve received show patients lying everywhere in pools of blood … their limbs have been blown off,” she told Al Jazeera, adding “That is what a massacre looks like.”

As the death toll from the central Gaza Strip continued to rise, Israeli reports emerged that four Israeli captives were rescued in the operation and transferred back to Israel. The four captives were identified as Noa Argamani, 26, Almog Meir Jan, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27, and Shlomi Ziv, 40. They were all reportedly taken on October 7th from the Nova Music festival in southern Israel close to the Gaza border. According to Israeli media, the four captives were found in good health, and were transferred to a hospital in Israel where they were reunited with their families. One member of the Israeli special forces was killed during the attack. Israeli newspaper Haaretz cited Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari as saying the captives were “rescued under fire, and that during the operation the IDF attacked from the air, sea, and land in the Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah areas in the center of the Gaza Strip.”

Haaretz added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant approved the operation on Thursday evening. Netanyahu hailed the operation as “successful,” while Gallant reportedly described it as “one of the heroic operations he had seen in all his years in the defense establishment, according to Israeli media. The families of Israeli captives held a press conference on Saturday afternoon in reaction to the news. Relatives of the four captives rescued on Saturday praised both the Israeli military and the government. Some relatives of the remaining captives still being held in Gaza demanded an end to the war and a prisoner exchange in order to secure the release of those still being held in Gaza.

On Saturday evening local time, spokesman for the Qassam Brigades Abu Obeida said “the first to be harmed by [the Israeli army] are its prisoners”, saying that while some of the captives were freed in the operation, a number of other Israeli captives were reportedly killed. The Israeli government and military have not commented on the reports that Israeli captives were killed in the operation. It is reported that there are 120 captives still held in the Gaza Strip, including 43 who have been killed since October, many reportedly by Israel’s own forces.

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Pediatricians
https://twitter.com/i/status/1799281058170405320

 

 

Nightmare

 

 

 

 

Fauci whipping boy

 

 

Firedog
https://twitter.com/i/status/1799191649945587886

 

 

Hamster

 

 

Black deer
https://twitter.com/i/status/1799416082341728390

 

 

Breach
https://twitter.com/i/status/1799404757980983589

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Oct 032017
 
 October 3, 2017  Posted by at 9:28 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  12 Responses »


Fan Ho Obsession 1964

 

Who Will Be There To Buy When Everyone Wants To Sell? – Howard Marks (FuW)
The Pricing of Risk is Kaput (WS)
Art Cashin: “I’ve Never Seen Anything Like Today’s Market Before” (ZH)
What You Are Not Being Told About The Economy – Steve Keen (RT)
An Accountant Smells a Rat in Our Global Credit Bubble (WS)
26 Recession-Free Years Hide a Darker Picture for Australia (BBG) >
Russia’s Rush For Gold Sees Record Reserves For Putin Era (II)
Fall of the Great Pumpkin (Jim Kunstler)
Spain’s Crisis Deepens as Catalonia Secession Clock Ticks Down (BBG)
Catalonia Set For General Strike Over Independence Poll Violence (AFP)
100,000s Of Puerto Ricans To Flee To Florida, New York (ZH)

 

 

 

 

A point I made again recentlly “It will continue to go up, but I will get out in time.» People overestimate their ability to get out in time. Who will be there to buy when everyone wants to sell? That’s wishful thinking.”

Who Will Be There To Buy When Everyone Wants To Sell? – Howard Marks (FuW)

It would be a dangerous bet to say interest rates are going to stay low forever, but I don’t see many people taking that bet. And you see, even if interest rates were to stay where they are, that would argue for P/E ratios to stay where they are. And if they do, then stocks will only appreciate at the same rate as earnings, which is not really fast; there would be no multiple expansion. This market is not built on some euphoric view of the future, but mainly on the unwillingness to accept zero or negative returns on cash and safe instruments. It’s based on the view that there is no alternative: people are afraid to be out of the market. But then again, a perceived lack of alternatives is not a good argument for chasing yield and taking big risks. That’s why I think this is the time to turn cautious.

It’s not smart, but people think that’s what they have to do now. You remember Chuck Prince, the CEO of Citigroup, who in July of 2007 said «when the liquidity dries up, this will end badly, but as long as the music is playing, you have to dance?» What does that even mean? People always say they’ll stay in the market, thinking it has further to go, but if it starts to turn down they will get out. Maybe that’s what people are thinking in today’s stock market: «It will continue to go up, but I will get out in time.» People overestimate their ability to get out in time. Who will be there to buy when everyone wants to sell? That’s wishful thinking.

[..] I see a lot of worries. One example: What’s going to happen when central banks start unwinding their balance sheets? We have no clue. There is no historical precedent for the measures they used to stimulate the economies in the past years, so we don’t know what will happen when they unwind them. If QE was stimulative, won’t the unwinding of it be the opposite of stimulative? I don’t know where the money came from for the QE programs, and I don’t know where the money will go to next. We don’t know what it will mean for interest rates and inflation.

Another worry is the low economic growth, combined with politics. All these right-wing populist movements – what are the implications of that? This is not imaginary. Where will the person with a low education level get a job in ten or twenty years, when all the cars are self-driving and all the stores have no clerks? I don’t know what the solution is. But I see a lack of political leadership around the world. Another worry concerns our pension systems. In the US and in other countries, defined benefit systems are hundreds of billions of dollars in the red. What’s going to happen to the people who expect to get their promised retirement payments? But today, nobody’s talking about the problems in our pension systems.

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“..when markets can no longer price risks, they cannot price anything at all because the price of risk underlies all prices in the financial markets.”

The Pricing of Risk is Kaput (WS)

US Treasury Securities with longer maturities fell this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 2.37% early on and currently trading at 2.34%. This is still low by historical standards, and it’s still in denial of the Fed’s monetary tightening: Four rate hikes since it started this cycle, and the QE unwind has commenced as of today. But it cannot hold a candle to the Draghi-engineered negative-yield absurdity still unfolding in the Eurozone. The average yield of junk bonds denominated in euros hit a new all-time record low at the close on Friday of 2.30%. Let that sink in a moment. These euro corporate bonds are rated below investment grade. Companies, unlike the US, cannot print their own money to prevent default.

There is little liquidity in the junk bond market, and selling these bonds when push comes to shove can be hard or impossible. The reason they’re called “junk” is because of their high risk of default. And yet, prices of these junk bonds have been inflated by the ECB’s policies to such a degree that their yield, which falls as prices rise, is now lower than that of 10-year US Treasury securities that are considered the most liquid securities with the least credit risk out there. The average yield of the euro junk bonds is based on a basket of below-investment-grade corporate bonds denominated in euros. Issuers include junk-rated American companies with European subsidiaries – in which case these bonds are called “reverse Yankees.”

They include the riskiest bonds. Plenty of them will default. Losses will be painful. Investors know this. It’s not a secret. But they don’t mind. They’re institutional investors plowing other people’s money into these bonds, and they don’t need to mind, but they have to buy these bonds because that’s their job. This chart, based on BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Index Effective Yield via the St. Louis Fed, shows that the average euro junk bond yield is on the way to what? Zero?

During the peak of the Financial Crisis, the average junk bond yield hit 25%. During the dog days of the euro debt crisis in the summer of 2012, when Draghi pronounced the magic words that he’d do “whatever it takes,” these bonds yielded about 9%. The yield dropped below 5% in October 2013, for the first time ever. This juxtaposition of the already low 10-year US Treasury yield and the even lower euro junk bond yield creates one of the most fascinating WTF-charts for our amusement at central-bank absurdist policies – and we’d be laughing at these bond investors gone nuts, if it weren’t so serious:

.. this is Draghi’s ultimate accomplishment in his nutty bailiwick: The total destruction of the market’s risk-pricing mechanism at the expense of other people’s money – this includes pension funds and life insurance companies that play a large role in Europe’s private pension system. They have to buy corporate bonds. Their beneficiaries that paid into the systems will have to bear the costs in future years. And then there’s the comforting thought that when markets can no longer price risks, they cannot price anything at all because the price of risk underlies all prices in the financial markets.

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“..when we had the taper tantrum they hadn’t even done anything yet, they’d just threatened to taper..”

Art Cashin: “I’ve Never Seen Anything Like Today’s Market Before” (ZH)

Market veteran Art Cashin, the head of NYSE floor operations for UBS, made an interesting observation earlier today just minutes before the close, as US stocks headed for another record finish after shrugging off the worst mass shooting in US history. Asked by CNBC’s Kelly Evans to explain how US stocks have continued to outperform while the 10-year Treasury yield has remained anchored below 2.5%, Cashin acknowledged that, during a career that’s spanned more than six decades, he’s never seen anything like today’s market. “I’ve been doing this for over 50 years and I’ve never seen anything like it so it is rather odd.” And given global stocks’ strong performance this year, with markets weathering a series of political crises, natural disasters, terror attacks and other nominally destabilizing events (with a little help from central banks, of course) – Cashin says the outlook isn’t as dire as some would believe.

“Right now, Europe’s doing all right emerging markets are okay, and maybe they’re not going to take away the punchbowl that quickly – so we’ll see,” Cashin said. In September, the Fed suggested that while it would likely raise interest rates more quickly than previously believed during the coming quarters, median forecasts for the Fed funds rate in 2019, as well as the longer-run median target, declined compared with a set of forecasts released in July. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the most pressing questions that investors should be asking themselves is ‘is this the quarter where tapering – or the expectation of further tapering – finally triggers a market correction.

“What’s really going to be interesting to watch in this final quarter, is will there be an impact of quantitative tightening. As Peter Boockvar points out…it’s only going to be a token amount. But when we had the taper tantrum they hadn’t even done anything yet they’d just threatened to taper. When asked what it would take to spark a meaningful correction in stocks, Cashin said he expects investors will take notice once the 10-year yield climbs above 3%. “I think we’ve got to get a bit higher. Probably up around 3% you start to get everybody’s attention and you’ll start to hear that in the conversation more and more.”

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Are you rational? Economics is not.

What You Are Not Being Told About The Economy – Steve Keen (RT)

As Karl Marx’s ‘Das Kapital’ turns 150 and the global financial crisis enters its tenth year, we ask why it is that we are still no closer to creating an economy that actually works. Perhaps more importantly, why do mainstream economists continue to miss the fundamental drivers of financial instability? Host Ross Ashcroft talks about what’s next for the global economy with Professor Steve Keen, an economist who correctly predicted the financial crisis and the author of ‘Debunking Economics.’

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“Economists can’t see it. They can’t model money and credit. ”

An Accountant Smells a Rat in Our Global Credit Bubble (WS)

Twenty years ago Doug Noland was so worried about imbalances surrounding the dot.com boom that he began to title his weekly reports “The Credit Bubble Bulletin. Years later, he warned the world about the impending 2008 crisis. However a coming implosion, he says, could be the biggest yet. “We are in a global finance bubble, which I call the grand-daddy of all bubbles,” said Noland. “Economists can’t see it. They can’t model money and credit. However, to those outside the system, the facts are increasingly clear.” Noland points to inflating real estate, bond and equity prices as key causes for concern. According to the Federal Reserve’s September Z.1 Flow of Funds report, the value of US equities jumped $1.5 trillion during the second quarter to $42.2 trillion, a record 219% of GDP.

Noland may be right. A report by the International Institute of Finance released in June estimated that global government, business and personal debts totaled $217 trillion earlier this year. That’s more than three times (327%) higher than global economic output. Adding to the complexity is the fact that not all debts are fully recorded. For example, according to a World Economic Forum study, the world’s six largest pension saving systems – the US, UK, Japan, Netherlands, Canada and Australia – are expected to experience a $224 trillion funding shortfall by 2050. Noland’s warnings come during a time of exceptional public trust in governments, central banks, regulators and other institutions. Market volatility is trending at near record lows. In June, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen spoke for many when she said that she did not see a financial crisis occurring “in our lifetimes.”

So why would Noland, who during his day job runs a tactical short book at McAlvany Wealth Management, see things that government, academic, and central bank economists don’t? One possibility is because Noland, who studied accounting and finance in college and began his career as a CPA at Price Waterhouse, is not an economist. He is thus not burdened with the “dismal science’s” limitations. Although Noland eventually completed an MBA and some doctoral studies, he was never forced to buy into the econometrics groupthink that plagues the profession. Noland is thus free to incorporate historical, financial, geographical and other data into his analyses. Another possible reason is that Noland (unlike almost all professional economists who missed both major market implosions/recessions of the last two decades) doesn’t hide it when he makes a bad call.

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But Australians won’t believe it until it hits them in the head.

26 Recession-Free Years Hide a Darker Picture for Australia (BBG)

The global crown for the longest stretch of uninterrupted economic growth is within sight for Australia. But it’s limping to the line as policy paralysis weighs on the nation’s prospects. Twenty-six years without recession have put Australia within two years of overtaking the Netherlands’ record growth streak and government, central bank and economist forecasts all suggest it’ll take the mantle. After all, the economy has a head start with 2.5% growth virtually baked in – 1.5% from population gains that are among the developed world’s quickest and 1% from resource exports feeding Asia’s giant economies. Yet the reliance on rapid immigration is straining infrastructure, while mining profits fuel riches for stakeholders but do little for the vast majority of Australians living in major cities.

Meantime, wages are barely growing, households carry some of the world’s heaviest debt loads, and productivity gains from the economic reforms of the 1980s and early 1990s have petered out. There’s been no major economic reform since the turn of the century, with just about every attempt reversed or cannibalized by toxic politics. And the impact is starting to show. Just when the economy needs growth drivers outside of mining, a slide in global rankings for innovation and education suggest living standards could decline. The miracle economy that shrugged off the global recession is turning mediocre. “Now that we don’t have the benefit of the mining boom, there’s nothing really that replaces it in terms of driving economic activity,” said Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments in Edinburgh and a former Reserve Bank of Australia economist.

“The really big task of governments over the next 5 to 10 years is to deal with these big structural issues that Australia is facing. Potential growth is relatively weak.” A decade of political infighting has seen the nation change prime ministers five times since 2007 and sidelined substantive policy debate. Meanwhile, attempts at reform have been held hostage by populists and single-issue parties who’ve harnessed voter frustration with mainstream politicians to take the balance of power in parliament’s upper house. That political dysfunction is threatening the nation’s prospects. A policy vacuum around energy has seen electricity prices surge to among the highest in the world, despite Australia holding some of the largest coal and gas reserves on the planet.

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“The gold rush is allowing the Bank of Russia to continue growing its reserves while abstaining from purchases of foreign currency for more than two years. ”

Russia’s Rush For Gold Sees Record Reserves For Putin Era (II)

Vladimir Putin is doing his part to keep the upswing in gold alive. Since the Russian president went on a geopolitical offensive in Ukraine in 2014, the haven asset had its first annual gain in four years in 2016 and is on track for another in 2017. A beneficiary of economic and political perils from North Korea to Brexit, it’s among the top-performing commodities this year. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia has more than doubled the pace of gold purchases, bringing the share of bullion in its international reserves to the highest of Mr Putin’s 17 years in power, according to World Gold Council data. In the second quarter alone, it accounted for 38pc of all gold purchased by central banks. The gold rush is allowing the Bank of Russia to continue growing its reserves while abstaining from purchases of foreign currency for more than two years.

It’s one of a handful of central banks to keep the faith as global demand for the precious metal fell to a two-year low in the second quarter. But what may matter most is that gold is as geopolitics-proof an investment as any in the age of sanctions and a deepening rift with the US. “Gold is an asset that is independent of any government and, in effect, given what is usually held in reserves, any Western government,” said Matthew Turner, metals analyst at Macquarie Group in London. “This might appeal given Russia has faced financial sanctions.” Besides being the largest official buyer of gold, Russia is also among the world’s three biggest producers, with the central bank purchasing from domestic miners through commercial banks and not in the open market. Since starting to accelerate bullion purchases in 2007, Russia’s holdings have more than quadrupled to 1,556 tonnes at the end of June, just behind China and more than Turkey, India and Mexico combined, bringing its share in Russia’s $427bn (€361bn) reserves to near 17pc.

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“Trump travels there this week. That may be exactly the moment that the Deep State moves to take him down.”

Fall of the Great Pumpkin (Jim Kunstler)

Welcome to the witching month when America’s entropy-fueled death-wish expresses itself with as much Halloween jollity and merriment as the old Christmas spirit of yore. The outdoor displays alone take on a Babylonian scale, thanks to the plastic factories of China. I saw a half-life-size T-Rex skeleton for sale at a garden shop last week surrounded by an entire crew of moldering corpse Pirates of the Caribbean in full costume ho-ho-ho-ing among the jack-o-lanterns. What homeowner in this sore-beset floundering economy of three-job gig-workers can shell out four thousand bucks to decorate his lawn like the set of a zombie movie? The overnight news sure took on that Halloween tang as the nation woke up to what is probably a national record for a civilian mad-shooter incident.

So far, fifty dead and two hundred wounded at the Las Vegas at the Route 91 Harvest Festival (one up in fatalities from last year’s Florida Pulse nightclub massacre, and way more injured this time). The incident will live in infamy for maybe a day and a half in the US media. Stand by today as there will be calls far and wide, by personas masquerading as political leaders, for measures to make sure something like this never happens again. That’s rich, isn’t it? Meanwhile, the same six a.m. headlines declared that S &P futures were up in the overnight markets. Nothing can faze this mad bull, apparently. Except maybe the $90 trillion combined derivatives books of CitiBank, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs, who have gone back whole hog into manufacturing the same kind of hallucinatory collateralized debt obligations (giant sacks of non-performing loans) that gave Wall Street a heart attack in the fall of 2008.

Europe’s quaint doings must seem dull compared to the suicidal potlatch of life in the USA, but, believe me, it’s a big deal when the Spanish authorities start cracking the heads of Catalonian grandmothers for nothing more than casting a ballot. The video scenes of mayhem at the Barcelona polls looked like something out of the 1968 Prague uprising. And now that the Catalonia secession referendum passed with a 90% “yes” vote, it’s hard to imagine that a good deal more violent mischief will not follow. So far, the European Union stands dumbly on the sidelines. (For details, read the excellent Raul Ilargi Meijer column on today’s TheAutomaticEarth.)

[..] Finally — well, who know what else may pop up now — there is the matter of Puerto Rico. Halloween there is not like New England, with our nippy fall mornings, steaming mugs of hot cider, and quickening fall color. It will remain 90-degrees-plus down there in the fetid, stinking ruins, with lots of still-standing water, broken communications, shattered supply lines, and very little electricity. FEMA and the US Military may be doing all they can now, but they must be on watch for the ominous blossoming of tropical disease epidemics. The story there is far from over. Trump travels there this week. That may be exactly the moment that the Deep State moves to take him down.

Read more …

Catalonia wants to talk. But it will no longer accept many of the things it would have before Sunday.

Spain’s Crisis Deepens as Catalonia Secession Clock Ticks Down (BBG)

In Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao and beyond, the question is the same: Now what? Sunday’s vote for independence in Catalonia, one of Spain’s most populous and prosperous regions, has thrust the country into its gravest political crisis since the days of the dictator Francisco Franco. Few see an easy way out. The results of the referendum give Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stark choices – try to deal a blow to the independence movement by suspending Catalonia’s semi-autonomous status, or meet the secessionists halfway and start talks with Catalan President Carles Puigdemont. Puigdemont said the vote, rejected by the central government as illegal, justifies a unilateral declaration of independence. That could come by the end of the week, if the regional parliament agrees.

The European Union refused to recognize the rebel region’s bid, but Spanish bonds and stocks fell Monday as the risks of a breakaway rose. The clash puts Rajoy in a tight corner. Head of a minority government that relies on support from regional parties to rule, he has pledged to protect Spain’s territorial integrity. His main ally in parliament, Ciudadanos party leader Albert Rivera, called on the prime minister to invoke a never-before-used article of the 1978 constitution and pull Catalonia’s special regional standing, which gives it certain administrative powers. “It’s the moment to act with calm but with firmness,” said Rivera, who is Catalan, after meeting with Rajoy on Monday. Rivera said an independence declaration may be 72 hours away and suggested invoking Article 155 would cut off any attempt to make such a move.

But Pedro Sanchez, head of the main Socialist opposition party, said after his own meeting with Rajoy that the central government should hold talks with the secessionists. While Sanchez made no mention of Article 155 in the statement he issued, socialists in Catalonia said the party wouldn’t support the prime minister taking that step. That means Rajoy will have little political cover if he opts to suspend Catalan self-government – the most powerful card he has left. The crisis has already caused him problems: Last week, he had to withdraw plans to present his 2018 budget after allies in the Basque PNV party withheld their support as they criticized his position on Catalonia.

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The Guardia Civil will have to leave Catalonia at some point. And what then?

Catalonia Set For General Strike Over Independence Poll Violence (AFP)

Large numbers of Catalans are expected to observe a general strike on Tuesday to condemn police violence at a banned weekend referendum on independence, as Madrid comes under growing international pressure to resolve its worst political crisis in decades. Flights and train services could be disrupted as well as port operations, after unions called for the stoppage to “vigorously condemn” the police response to the poll, in which Catalonia’s leader said 90% of voters backed independence from Spain. Barcelona’s public universities are expected to join the strike, as is the contemporary art museum, football club FC Barcelona and the Sagrada Familia, the basilica designed by Antoni Gaudi and one of the city’s most popular tourist sites. “I am convinced that this strike will be widely followed,” Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said ahead of the protest.

The central government has vowed to stop the wealthy northeastern region, which accounts for a fifth of Spain’s GDP, breaking away from Spain and has dismissed Sunday’s poll as unconstitutional and a “farce”. Violent scenes played out in towns and cities across the region on Sunday as riot police moved in on polling stations to stop people from casting their ballots, in some cases charging with batons and firing rubber bullets to disperse crowds. UN rights chief Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said he was “very disturbed” by the unrest while EU President Donald Tusk urged Madrid to avoid “further use of violence”. The European Parliament will hold a special debate on Wednesday on the issue. “We call on all relevant players to now move very swiftly from confrontation to dialogue. Violence can never be an instrument in politics,” European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said, breaking weeks of virtual EU silence on the Catalan issue.

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“Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in Florida..”

100,000s Of Puerto Ricans To Flee To Florida, New York (ZH)

As mayors of cities with large Puerto Rican populations continue to advocate for federal assistance to help with the resettlement of hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans who are expected to temporarily seek shelter with friends and families in the US, Florida Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in Florida, allowing state agencies to take extraordinary measures to assist families that will soon be arriving in droves to cities like Orlando and Miami, both of which feature large Puerto Rican populations. The Orlando Sentinel reports that Scott announced that disaster relief centers will be set up at Orlando International Airport and in Miami to help those seeking refuge in Florida. “Puerto Rico is absolutely devastated and so many families have lost everything,” Scott said in a released statement.

“Our goal is to make sure that while [Puerto Rican] Governor [Ricardo] Rosselló is working to rebuild Puerto Rico, any families displaced by Maria that come to Florida are welcomed and offered every available resource from the state.” The relief center at OIA, and two others at Miami International Airport and the Port of Miami, open Tuesday, according to a release from Scott’s office, just days after Puerto Rican airports reopened following the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria. [..] Scott’s emergency order will allow state agencies broad autonomy to waive regulations and do whatever is necessary to help Puerto Ricans. Importantly, it could also help bring more federal funding to help the state cope with aid efforts.

State lawmakers have said they expect at least 100,000 Puerto Ricans to flee to Florida because of Maria, forcing the state to step up its education, housing and job-placement offerings. It’s expected that some of those displaced by the storm could resettle permanently, as the reconstruction effort in Puerto Rico is expected to take months, if not years. State Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, D-Orlando, said the Legislature should hold a special session, as he estimates hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans are coming to Florida. The 2018 regular session starts in January. “FL needs 2 deal w/humanitarian crisis + over 100K Boricuas who’ll seek refuge here right now, not in Jan.,” he tweeted.

We now wait to hear from New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio. NYC officials have said more than 100,000 Puerto Ricans could arrive in NYC alone.

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Nov 062016
 
 November 6, 2016  Posted by at 10:54 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  2 Responses »


Ryan Redhawk Standing Rock 2016

David Stockman Warns Both Trump And Clinton Could Lead To 25% Sell-Off (CNBC)
Election Chaos Fears Have Preppers Stockpiling Survival Food (CNBC)
Exposing John Podesta (TeleSur)
The Secret World of the US Election: Julian Assange Talks to John Pilger (RT)
California Secession Group To Meet At State Capitol Day After Election (SFG)
Tech Is Disrupting All Before It – Even Democracy Is In Its Sights (Cadwalladr)
China Premier Li Says Economy To Maintain Steady Growth (R.)
Attempts To Cool Over-Heating Australia Property Market Are Failing (AFR)
May: Parliament Must Accept Brexit Vote Was Legitimate (R.)
Higher Prices And Rising Debt Threaten Millions In UK (G.)
Turkey Is Headed For A Bloodbath (Rubin)
Turkey Was Once A Free Society. Now It Is Rapidly Destroying Itself. (WaPo)
Germany Investigates 60 Possible Islamists In Armed Forces (R.)
German Ministry Wants Migrants Returned To Africa (R.)

 

 

“We are now in Watergate 2.0.” “Government is going to be totally paralyzed regardless of who wins..”

David Stockman Warns Both Trump And Clinton Could Lead To 25% Sell-Off (CNBC)

David Stockman, the man widely credited as the “Father of Reaganomics”, delivered an alarming message to investors. “The markets are hideously inflated,” warned Stockman on CNBC’s “Fast Money” this week. The former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan urged investors to dump stocks and bonds ahead of the dangers that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton pose to markets if either is elected as President. “If you don’t sell before the election, certainly do it afterwards. Government is going to be totally paralyzed regardless of who wins,” he said. “There could be a 25% draw down on markets.” Stockman posits that, under a Clinton administration, official investigations and new hacked email disclosures from Wikileaks will be non-stop.

Furthermore, he reasoned that the “house will become a killing field” for anything Clinton is trying to do. Ultimately, Stockman said the Democrat would enter the Oval Office bruised, bloody and all but lacking in legitimacy. “For six months, or even longer, there will acrimony, there will be brinkmanship, there will be paralysis. There will be a swarm of house committees doing investigations from all of these wiki leaks!” Stockman said of Clinton’s hypothetical early days in the White House. “Therefore, there will be no baton handed off from the Fed to fiscal policy as we slide into recession,” he added.

[..] Comparatively, Stockman likes that Trump appears ready to call out the Fed and breakup the “cozy” relationship that exists between Washington and Wall Street. However, that’s where his favorable opinion of the GOP nominee ends. “I like him because he’s against the establishment, but he has no economic program. Yes, he’s a disruptor, but has nothing to disrupt with,” Stockman said. “If elected, it will be partisan warfare and a total disaster,” Stockman explained to CNBC. “Under a Trump victory, all bets are off.”

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And guns, and gold, and fuel, etc.

Election Chaos Fears Have Preppers Stockpiling Survival Food (CNBC)

In case of an election night Doomsday, preppers are running up sales of emergency survival food. While sales for “long term food” typically see an increase around natural disasters and elections, “this is more intense than what we saw in 2012,” said Keith Bansemer, VP of marketing for My Patriot Supply, a manufacturer and seller of survival food. During the previous election his company saw sales double. This time it’s triple. “We have everyone we can on the phones,” he said. “We are overwhelmed.” Purchases at other long term food supply companies are up as well. Emergency preparedness online store TheEpicenter reports a 6% uptick in year over year sales. Another company, Legacy Foods, predicts they’ll see a 1-2 week spike in sales after the election — if Hillary Clinton wins, said owner Phil Cox.

The meals, sold by the plastic bucket or tote bin, are typically dehydrated or freeze-dried food in sealed military-grade Mylar packs. Menu items include pasta primavera, Hawaiian Style Sweet n’ Sour, cheesy broccoli and rice soup, orange energy drink mix and chocolate pudding. They’re sold in bundles based on how long they’ll feed you. For $2,000 spent at Legacy Foods, you could eat three square meals a day for an entire year. That’s 1,080 servings. TheEpicenter has a 14-day supply kit for $235 that’s recently been “selling really well,” said owner Bryan Nelson. The most popular entry-level seller at My Patriot Supply is a 3-month supply for $497. It comes a in nondescript gray slim line totes bin designed to be easy to stack in the back of a closet or slip under your bed.

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Lobbyists inside the government. Good exposé.

Exposing John Podesta (TeleSur)

With the Wikileaks release of thousands of emails belonging to John Podesta, very little is known in US society about Podesta himself. While he’s maintained a low profile, John Podesta is actually considered one of Washington’s biggest players, and one of the most powerful corporate lobbyists in the world. In this episode of The Empire Files, Abby Martin explores John Podesta’s political rise, his vast network of corporate connections and his think tank “Center for American Progress.” Learn why the Podestas and the Clintons are a match made in ruling class heaven.

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“I actually feel quite sorry for Hillary Clinton as a person. Because I see someone who’s eaten alive be their ambition. Tormented literally to the point where they become sick..”

The Secret World of the US Election: Julian Assange Talks to John Pilger (RT)

Whistleblower Julian Assange has given one of his most incendiary interviews ever in a John Pilger Special, courtesy of Dartmouth Films, in which he summarizes what can be gleaned from the tens of thousands of Clinton emails released by WikiLeaks this year.

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“..our continued statehood means California will continue subsidizing the other states to our own detriment, and to the detriment of our children.”

California Secession Group To Meet At State Capitol Day After Election (SFG)

An organization hoping to facilitate the secession of California from the Union is holding a meet and greet on the Capitol steps in Sacramento next Wednesday, the day after the presidential election. The Yes California Independence Campaign, which is based in San Diego, is aiming to qualify a citizen’s initiative in 2018 to get a referendum for secession on the ballot in 2019. They’ll be in Sacramento to garner support for their initiative. “In our view,” a statement on its website reads, “the United States of America represents so many things that conflict with Californian values, and our continued statehood means California will continue subsidizing the other states to our own detriment, and to the detriment of our children.” And it appears the organization has been considering its strategy for quite a while now. On its site, you’ll find a link to a 33-page “Blue Book” wherein the organization answers any hypothetical questions about the state becoming its own country.

The details for the secession — dubbed the #CalExit — include such topics such as “Will we join the United Nations?” and “Will we have our own Olympic team?”. While the notion of an independent California does seem well-intended — points about immigration, environmental concerns, and education are thoughtful — the practicality of such a proposal is tenuous at best. Will this secession campaign be viable? In a word: No. As we know from the Civil War, just because a state wants to secede doesn’t mean the Union will let it. As Washington Post writer Philip Bump wrote earlier this year, Congress simply would not, for many reasons, allow it. “There’s no mechanism for Congress to simply say, ‘Sure, off you go.’ Once you’re in, you’re in,” he wrote. “The United States was born an expansionist enterprise, and the idea of contraction, it seems, never really came up.”

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A failed attempt at a promising topic.

Tech Is Disrupting All Before It – Even Democracy Is In Its Sights (Cadwalladr)

[..] ..what the last week of this presidential campaign has shown us is that technology has disrupted, is disrupting, is threatening to upturn the democratic process itself – the best, most stable, most equitable form of governance the world has yet come up with. In many crucial ways, it doesn’t even matter who wins on Tuesday because perhaps the best thing you can say about Trump is that if it hadn’t been him it would have been someone else. It’s the opposite of the Great Man theory of history: a misogynistic ex-reality TV star is not the game-changer here, it’s technology. Two days ago, the same hackers who took down Twitter and Netflix and the Guardian and Reddit and CNN last week in the biggest attack of its kind that the world has ever seen, started practising on a country.

Computer malware had been used to infect inanimate objects in our homes – the connected devices that comprise the so-called internet of things and that, it’s been discovered, a bit late, are hopelessly insecure. It has harnessed these to create a gigantic internet-destroying machine, the so-called Mirai botnet, and it’s honing its power. Last week it took aim at an entire country – Liberia. A huge attack was launched against the two companies that own the only fibre going into the west African country — bringing its entire internet infrastructure to a halt. The worst case scenario? That the hackers behind it are “practising” for Tuesday, when they’ll aim their massed computing power against America. This is everyday objects in our own homes, “smart” objects, intenet-enabled toasters and refrigerators.

Because this is where we are: our toasters and refrigerators may be about to be used to subvert the democratic process of the greatest democracy on Earth. And if that reads like the most lunatic sentence you’ve ever read, you maybe haven’t been paying close enough attention to 2016. Because this is possibly, finally, the year when it hits home that technology is not just some cool titanium-coloured gadget in our pockets. It’s the facilitator of the degraded news space that treats facts and lies the same. That has enabled thousands of Twitterbots – algorithms – to scrape the internet for stories about Trump and then retweet them. It was robot accounts that caused “#TrumpWon” to trend after each TV debate and allowed Trump to claim “victory”.

It’s how a man who hasn’t set foot on the street for four years, can, with just his laptop, create havoc in the critical last week of the campaign. By leaking emails that potentially implicate Hillary Clinton, Julian Assange has inserted himself – like computer malware — into the heart of the American democratic process. He’s infected it. He is, like Donald Trump, the law of unintended consequences writ large, in human form. In 2010, we didn’t mind the fact that the data he leaked was stolen. Here in the liberal press, we championed it. Because it was stolen data that served to underscore our liberal sensibilities. Or, at least mine. And now? Not so much.

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Not a cloud in the sky…

China Premier Li Says Economy To Maintain Steady Growth (R.)

China will maintain steady growth and speed up economic transformation, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Saturday, adding that the world’s No. 2 economy would be able to overcome current challenges, official news agency Xinhua reported. China is trying to rebalance its economy to adapt to slower growth both at home and abroad but policymakers are struggling to contain a range of domestic issues such as surging home prices and rising debt levels. Li said China’s moves to ensure “supply-side structural reform” while appropriately expanding aggregate demand have boosted the domestic economy, and economic restructuring and liberalization have also generated new areas of growth.

Data released last month showed China posted economic growth of 6.7% in the third quarter, steady from the previous quarter, as increased government spending and a property boom offset stubbornly weak exports. China has full confidence in sustaining a “medium-high” growth rate, added Li, speaking on an official visit to Riga. He said that China has consistently followed proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and adopted new ways of macroeconomic regulation, reported Xinhua, while using “market-oriented and rules-based methods” to defuse risk.

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“..the number of interest-only loans is rising despite banks increasing interest rates..”

Attempts To Cool Over-Heating Australia Property Market Are Failing (AFR)

Attempts to cool the property market are failing as the number of interest-only loans surges back towards last year’s highs, an analysis of new lending figures reveals. The Reserve Bank of Australia said in its quarterly statement of monetary policy on Friday that despite recent strengthening in Sydney and Melbourne, “overall conditions in the established housing market have eased relative to mid last year”. The RBA said house price inflation remained below the peaks in 2015 and there had been a drop in the share of interest-only loans which raise concerns for regulators because of the risk that borrowers will not be able to repay once the interest-only period ends. Latest analysis, however, shows the number of interest-only loans is rising despite banks increasing interest rates on some products and toughening lending terms and conditions.

Loan volumes, which dropped from 40% to 30% of total lending in the nine months to March, have since risen back to 35% following recent rate cuts and better returns from property than other asset classes, such as shares and savings accounts. Martin North, principal of Digital Finance Analytics (DFA), a consultant to commercial and investment banks, said interest-only loans did fall last year but have since started to raise again. “Loan to value ratios are indeed down but that does not change the interest-only question, how many have a repayment plan and will need one the next loan review,” he said. “The RBA is sanguine on the housing market but ignores the highest ever household debt.”

Meanwhile there are fears thousands of property investors using the interest-only loans could be caught by rules that might force them to make bigger repayments five years into the term of the loan. “There is a trap being set for the unwary investors,” warns Mr North. Some lenders, such as Bankwest, a subsidiary of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, are telling their mortgage broker network to impose tough new conditions where a borrower wants to switch from a principal-and-interest to interest-only loan, or extend the interest-only period. Confidential documents show borrowers will be required to provide reasons for the change and “must” be informed of their potential repayment at the end of the interest-only period.

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I see a legal quagmire in your future.

May: Parliament Must Accept Brexit Vote Was Legitimate (R.)

Parliament must accept that Britain’s vote to leave the EU was legitimate and let the government get on with delivering Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday. May has said she is confident of overturning a British court ruling that the government needs parliamentary approval to start the process of leaving the EU. The government, which has given little away about its plans for Britain’s future relationship with the EU, has said that having to set out a detailed negotiating strategy to parliament would put it at a disadvantage in talks with the bloc. “While others seek to tie our negotiating hands, the government will get on with the job of delivering the decision of the British people,” May said in a statement ahead of her first trade trip to India on Sunday.

“It was MPs (members of parliament) who overwhelmingly decided to put the decision in their hands. The result was clear. It was legitimate. MPs and peers who regret the referendum result need to accept what the people decided.” May will use her first bilateral trade trip since taking office to try to boost ties with India before Britain leaves the EU and to pave the way for a free trade deal as soon as possible once Brexit is completed. Parliament could in theory block Brexit as most members supported staying in the EU in June’s referendum, although it is unlikely to do so. The ruling could allow lawmakers to temper the government’s approach, however, making a “hard Brexit” – where tight controls on immigration are prioritized over remaining in the European single market – less likely.

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Of course the headline said ‘higher inflation’, but it’s not. It’s currency devaluation.

Higher Prices And Rising Debt Threaten Millions In UK (G.)

UK households should brace themselves for a combination of rising inflation, low pay and increased debt that will squeeze living standards next year and push more people into financial difficulty, experts have warned. Higher inflation, weak wage growth and rising levels of consumer debt are expected to weigh on households next year as the economy adjusts to the post-referendum environment. Joanna Elson, chief executive of the Money Advice Trust, the charity that runs National Debtline, said: “The spectre of significantly higher inflation is a real concern. Many households have still not recovered from the last big squeeze on incomes in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The risk is that this new pressure on household budgets could tip many more people into financial difficulty.

“As a society we need to prepare for what could be a significant increase in problem debt in the years ahead.” Economists at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research are predicting inflation will rise from a current rate of 1% to almost 4% in 2017, as the sharp fall in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote makes imports more expensive. Wage growth on the other hand is expected to be weaker, as firms seek to control costs amid slowing economic growth and heightened uncertainty. There are also signs that household debt is returning to highs not seen since the financial crisis. The British Bankers’ Association has said that consumer credit is growing at the fastest rate in almost a decade, as record low interest rates fuel demand for personal loans and credit cards.

Gillian Guy, chief executive of Citizens Advice, said the rise in borrowing could lead to difficulties. “More people are turning to credit … While this borrowing might be manageable now, a sudden change in circumstances could lead to debt problems.”

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Sure looks that way.

Turkey Is Headed For A Bloodbath (Rubin)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the failed July 15 coup attempt a “gift from God.” The Turkish government immediately blamed Erdogan’s former ally-turned-rival Fethullah Gülen for being behind the plot, the genesis of which remains unclear. But the simple fact is that none of the material Turkish officials have given to their U.S. counterparts has yet risen to the standard of proof—let alone credible evidence—to support Erdogan’s charges. It is noteworthy that the Turkish press purports to describe the U.S. reaction as accepting of the Turkish material, yet no American officials have ever been quoted as saying anything near what the Turkish press describes. Indeed, alternate narratives about the July 15 coup attempt are equally compelling.

The only certainty is that the attempted coup became the excuse Erdogan needed or crafted in order to purge those opposed to or insufficiently enthusiastic about his agenda. Much of what has been reported in the Western media has focused on the ongoing purge of teachers and university professors. Certainly, there is a newsworthy irony to a man whose university diploma appears to be forged assuming the right to appoint university presidents through a board he has staffed with his cronies. But it is what Erdogan has done in recent days to the police that should put chills down the spines of those who care about his intent and Turkey’s future. Last week, Erdogan appointed new police chiefs for 61 out of Turkey’s 81 provinces. He also assigned 55 police chiefs to central departments that act as police professional bodies.

Some of the police chiefs Erdogan fired were religious, and some even supported him. None were followers of Gülen, simply because those who were had long ago been purged. Most of the chiefs whom Erdogan has appointed are fiercely nationalist, very young and relatively inexperienced, and so are likely to more easily defer to Erdogan’s orders. The problem seems to be not that Erdogan believed all the sacked chiefs disloyal—most were not, and he had appointed many in the first place. Rather, he considered them soft and unwilling to use the extreme violence he believes will be necessary to exert not only against Turkey’s Kurds but also against many liberal or apolitical Turks as he moves to further consolidate control.

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“..succumbing to a retro personality cult…”

Turkey Was Once A Free Society. Now It Is Rapidly Destroying Itself. (WaPo)

The speed of Turkey’s decline is mind-boggling, even when you live through its the day-to-day machinations. This week started with the Turkish government announcing plans to reintroduce the death penalty at the urging of the country’s strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in order to garner the support of ultra-nationalists in his bid to expand the powers of his presidency. Later in the week came the arrests of the editor-in-chief and columnists of Cumhuriyet, Turkey’s oldest paper and a symbol of its fast-eroding secularism, on trumped-up charges of terrorism. And finally, Thursday night brought the detentions of Selahattin Demirtas, the charismatic leader of the country’s pro-Kurdish party, and Figen Yuksekdag, the co-leader of the party. Ten other elected Kurdish deputies were also arrested.

As I write these lines, citizens cannot communicate to organize demonstrations — Twitter is down in Turkey, Facebook is unreachable, and social media applications such as WhatsApp remain blocked. The social media crackdown is an entirely unnecessary measure; who would go out and risk arrest when there is an emergency rule and a formal ban on protests? Protests happen in free and semi-free societies — or when people have the feeling that they have a chance to make an impact. There was a time when mass urban protests shook the country and pushed the government to announce a series of reforms. Today’s Turkey is a shell of itself. No such optimism remains.

The story of Turkey is fast becoming a heartbreaking saga of a budding Muslim democracy tossing out a historic chance at progress, only to settle for a familiar pattern of Middle East despotism by succumbing to a retro personality cult. A decade ago, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was applauded by the world for the pace of its reforms and advances toward EU membership. I myself was writing in praise of the ruling party AKP’s brand of “Muslim democrats,” which at the time seemed like a hopeful alternative to both the hard-line secularism of Kemalism and Islamic radicalism. A decade later, Turkey is barely able to hold civilized relations with its western allies, experiencing a rapid decline as rule of law, and has become a thorn in Europe’s side.

In this gradual decline, Demirtas was a breath of fresh air and one of the best things that happened in Turkish politics over the past few years. The 43-year-old former human rights lawyer commands only a small coalition of Kurds, leftists and minorities— with barely enough votes to pass the 10% national threshold. But Demirtas was effective with his powerful rhetoric on pluralism and democracy and able to project a power beyond his party’s base. This was a tale of David and Goliath. With his famous “We will not let you become an executive president” speech in March last year, and HDP’s electoral victory in June 2015 elections, Demirtas denied Erdogan the type of constitutional change and sweeping authority he wanted. With Demirtas’s detention, there are no more hurdles to Erdogan’s rise to absolute power.

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While it’s great that German military counter-espionage service is called MAD, this is false flag nonsense. No government agency would ever confirm anything on any such investigations, unless there are political reasons to do so. Merkel should not allow it. But she does.

Germany Investigates 60 Possible Islamists In Armed Forces (R.)

Germany plans security investigations of all military recruits from July 2017 after its military counter-espionage service (MAD) identified 20 Islamists in the country’s armed forces, German media group Funke reported on Saturday. A spokesman for the agency confirmed the figure, adding that 60 additional potential cases were under investigation. Draft legislation to be considered by the German parliament in the coming weeks would mandate investigations of all recruits to counter efforts by Islamic State to infiltrate the military and get weapons training, Funke Mediengruppe reported. A German Defence Ministry spokesman said existing law required investigations of soldiers after they were recruited. Before that, recruits had to provide police records and agree to unlimited access to their records in the federal register.

Recruiting offices had received an undisclosed number of queries from people who wanted to join the military for only a few months and expressed a keen interest in intensive weapons and equipment training, the MAD spokesman said. In a statement provided to the Funke media group, the agency said it was concerned about a July 2014 internet posting by Islamic State in which the group urged those with military training to join its ranks, and other calls for supporters to learn to shoot and to become familiar with weapons. German security services are on high alert after two Islamist militant attacks this summer. Almost 900,000 migrants arrived in Germany last year and while many Germans initially welcomed them, security concerns have since increased.

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And this is tied into the article above. Stoke the fear.

German Ministry Wants Migrants Returned To Africa (R.)

The German Interior Ministry wants to stop migrants ever reaching Europe’s Mediterranean coast by picking them up at sea and returning them to Africa, the Welt am Sonntag newspaper reported on Sunday. In what would be a huge shift for a country with one of the most generous asylum policies, the ministry says the EU should adopt an Australian-style system under which migrants intercepted at sea are sent for processing at camps in third countries. “The elimination of the prospect of reaching the European coast could convince migrants to avoid embarking on the life-threatening and costly journey in the first place,” the paper quoted a ministry spokeswoman as saying. “The goal must be to remove the basis for people-smuggling organizations and to save migrants from the life-threatening journey.”

The ministry’s proposal calls for migrants picked up in the Mediterranean – most of whom set off from conflict-torn Libya – to be sent to Tunisia, Egypt or other north African states to apply for asylum from there. If their asylum applications are accepted, the migrants could then be transported safely to Europe. The ministry is headed by Thomas de Maiziere, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats. Merkel has been under fire for her open-door refugee policy, with her party losing votes to the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in recent regional elections. The ministry said there were no concrete plans or discussions at EU-level about the proposal, but opposition politicians condemned the plan. Bernd Riexinger, head of the opposition Left party, said it would be “a humanitarian scandal and a further step toward elimination of the right to asylum.”

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