Professorlocknload
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Next up, the Crackup Boom.
Then the excruciatingly painful reset,,,finally leading to Ilargi’s “Deflation.”
The process could take years, or happen with astounding speed. The demise of confidence is a fickle thing to try and time. “Animal Spirits” are like that.
Those who make it to the “Other Side” relatively intact, will likely have done so with the help of a bit of barbaric yellow metal? Or at least some means of productive enterprise? Maybe a little of both and a heaping helping of luck?
Interesting times, these.
I have every confidence that Central Bank policy can remain irrational much longer than markets and market participants can remain solvent.
On the death of Capitalism, it died in 1913.
And yes, destruction of the currency is the inevitable end result of this “Extraordinary Popular Delusion.”
Get “real” or go down with the ship.
This deflation is killing me. Another huge rate hike by Pacific Gas and Electric here in California.
The only thing deflating here is the purchasing power of the Federal Reserve Note. Seems it buys less every day.
Silly wabbet,,,gumnuts don’t need to raise taxes to support debt spending. That’s old school stuff. Now all they need do is create more money.
And cash, in dollar form, is debt. The dollar is a debt instrument. A sort of bond. As in IOU. A certificate of confiscation. It WILL be devalued. No other choice. It’s just what Central Planners do.
And war it will be. Heck, read the other day the US is experiencing a bomb shortage?! :-/
War= mining boom, oil boom, manufacturing boom, hiring boom and a boom in the undertaker business,,,not to mention, it all needs to be financed. Enter it’s enabler, Wall Street.
Thing is, these children are playing with destructive forces unimaginable in wars past.
$50 million reward? Putin is really going to make bringing down a plane that profitable, for some sicko shysters to set up even more ideologically warped bombers in future? Like the real perpetrators won’t cull out some middleman scapegoat, or “drop” a passport somewhere in the process?
Again, Cui bono. And $50 mil is a lot of money.
Jal,
ISIS financed by the International Military Industrial Complex? The hell, you say! ;-).
Cui bono.
El Niño; food shortages, floods, disease and droughts,,,or, maybe not.
But the seed is thus planted in the minds of those who need to believe in disaster, so they will know what to look for and embellish.
Everyone must blame someone, so pointing fingers at the weather allows them to blame everyone,,,even themselves.
Had a hell fire preacher tell me, years ago, my car wouldn’t break down so often if I went to church. Told him the thing had a hundred fifty thousand miles on it, and asked if he had some connection that could roll back the odometer, or what?
There is no evidence the passport was not planted. FIFY, Dennis 😉
Giving .gov the benefit of any doubt is like attempting to kill a psychopath with kindness.
Bottom line in US/Western Foreign Policy,,,Blowback is a bitch. End of story.
Water shortages pending in the US? Hell, bring in millions more immigrants. That should improve the “Environment.”
True, nothing makes sense. Not much ever has.
In the end, unsustainable (familiar?) power structures fail. An uncomfortable thought for those who resist change. What to do?
“Do not look for sanctuary In anyone except your self.” Siddhartha Gautama
V. Arnold, maybe help in clarification,,,
“Each turning comes with its own identifiable mood. Always, these mood shifts catch people by surprise.”
The Fourth Turning.Ken,
What alternative sources of energy will have replaced oil and gas, to have rendered them unprofitable by 2030?
And here it is. News I can use;
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-26/fed-can’t-raise-rates-must-pretend-it-will
An inflationary depression. The only politically acceptable outcome.
Book it!
To clarify, Default extinguishes TPTB. Devaluation preserves TPTB a bit longer, so they may live to fight another day, or buy time to strip the copper wiring from the house of cards before it falls.
Why, again, are they called TPTB?
Of course, in the real end, the Fed, along with it’s currency will be gone. At that point, we are all where we are, then.
7 years of bureaucratic obfuscation later;
Subjective definitions of financial terms aside, there are really only two ultimate choices here for the creators of the debt based currency to extinguish unsustainable debt. Default or devalue.
All else is just noise,,, Bread and Circuses, as it were. The Fed is a political animal and will follow the path of least political resistance in the end.
A deflationist here might be selling farmland, tools, precious metals, houses,,,most anything “real,” in order to buy them all back at half price in future. He also might be tempted to hoard Federal Reserve IOU dollar debt instruments.
OTOH, looking at history, it isn’t likely the Dow goes back to 1000 as in the late 70’s, or a home to $5000 as in the early 60’s, or a new Chevy to $2400 as in 1973. Nickel beer? 25 cent burger?
Default or devalue. Place your bets.
When will the videos and photos of the carnage on the streets of Syria be uncensored so that those responsible for granting their governments consensus to commit these atrocities can view the results of their psychopathy? Up there on the big tv in the coffee shop, over their latte.
A few drowned kids take the center stage in the Psy Ops campaign, while thousands, maybe tens of thousands,are dismembered, dis figured and otherwise blown to bits. All the while, the political media protects the war criminals, as the Nobel Committee hands out Peace Prizes to the worst offenders. Oh, wait, what was Mr. Nobel famous for inventing?
Do not fear Economics/Societal breakdown such as warned about here and on a handful of fringe blogs. Do fear your government’s response to them!
– 0.1 inflation? Anyone who would believe that would likely even believe GDP numbers coming out of China and the West,,,
“Children are stil drowning, Angela. That should be your priority, not borders or camps.”
Maybe if children were not blown to bits in their own ME countries by Angela and Barrak and their allies, they might stop drowning?
Stocks as assets? Dollars as assets? Dollars are debt certificates. They are FRB IOU’s. They are shares of debt, just like any other paper promise.
An asset is something real that holds/increases it’s value over time. Even longer than the currency used to purchase it in most cases.
Cyclical bear market? In a secular bull market? Maybe be we are in a cyclical dollar bull market, within a secular dollar bear market?
Has the dollar not consistently lost value over time?
So, what’s next? No one knows, but I can give this “Neo New Deal” scenario some credence.
Sea change is over due here. Likely there will be a massive chopper drop in the forms of infrastructure boondoggles and war in combination, with some hefty redistribution as a side.
There is no international Central Banking cartel that is omnipotent in the long run. They all can only operate as long as enabled by the governments of the world, and these governments are vulnerable to turns in public sentiment. When consent is finally withdrawn and the pitch forks come out, all will change.
Certainly, the day will come when official currencies are no longer accepted and the so called “illuminati” will be dethroned. Likely they will chop each other up beforehand.
Meanwhile, accumulate “Things Real” while they are still cheap and available. You will need them on the other side of this.
“We bring mayhem wherever we go. Maybe we should leave.”
Though I have no love lost for the American Red Cross and the atrocious salaries it’s top dogs drag down, it is it’s Peace Prize winning man in the Oval Office that is adding to it’s humanitarian aid backlog.
Last I checked, the Realtors Association was one of the biggest American lobby groups, and the home builders and material suppliers are in there somewhere too. And, after all, home building is a big segment of GDP when going full on.
Has Fannie run out of freshly printed credit yet? Think they will?
“Q: what happens to house prices when the Chinese stop buying?”
Are we running out of Chinese? We certainly aren’t running out of “Dollars” with which to stuff their pockets full. And I would be willing to guess there are at least a few hundred million who would rather not hang around to participate in a return to iron fisted Maoism down the road.
In fact, immigration from all sources will inevitably absorb existing housing inventory, especially at present accelerating rates. Seems our .gov has decided unlimited immigration equals maximum economic growth. If this eventually ends up at a rate of, say, 20 million legal and illegal new entrants a year in a few years, well,,,Got House?
Indus,
“Princes and governments are far more dangerous than other elements within society.”
Machievelli, surprisingly enough.It only follows that the more revered and bigger, the more dangerous.
I know, I’m cluttering up the board again, but need to say this,,,and I believe it’s the way they think;
“There are 5 times more claims on dollars as dollars in existence” ??
‘Simple solution, create 5 times more dollars.’ Gramma Janet
There could ultimately be as many FRN’s created as there are electrons, but that’s getting into “Quantum” physics,,,and monetary policy.
Ken, I can relate, especially following the Feds revelation that all those who have fallen out of the workforce don’t want a job 😉
Kinda like saying all those in a depression clinic don’t want to get better?
Heather, perhaps of interest;
“But the simplest of principles stands no matter what: there’s no way out of this that doesn’t lead through the exact kind of massive debt deleveraging that all governments and central banks are ostensibly trying desperately to prevent.”
The only politically expedient way out of this is destruction of the Fed’s own currency. It’s baked in the cake. Asset prices may fall in real value in this process, but not in nominal terms. This is a sort of democracy, and there are elections to tend to.
Federal Reserve Note Credit holders, as well as the holders of most any “Security” will be washed away.
Federal Reserve Notes = Instruments of confiscation, through the stealth taxation of devaluation.
Bonds= Instruments of confiscation by the same process.
Asking a Central Bank to stand for deflation/revaluation is asking it to stand aside and close up shop. Along with the political machine that enables it.
Even FDR resorted to devaluation during the “Big One”
So, real “assets” are those items that preserve purchasing power through financial turmoil better than any other means of maintaining it. The antithesis of Federal Reserve credit (green backs) and Bonds.
Unless one believes TPTB will do the right thing and impose the ultimate form of austerity, by allowing the system to purge itself through mass default, (Fat Chance!) it might be prudent to consider trading ones debt holdings (Federal Reserve Notes) for anything one may perceive to be useful, after the backer of said funny money drowns in an ocean of it.
In one corner we have VW, an international dues paying member of the Corporatocracy.
In the other corner, the EPA, one of the worlds most efficient unelected bureaucracies at political shakedown techniques.VW should have stuck to financial fraud. It’s CEO might have eventually garnered a Nobel Prize instead of a Golden Parachute.
Hoo, boy,,,can’t imagine what the refugee crisis will look like when the war mongering EU and US/Canada declare war on India and China. But, I guess war is an inevitable form of population control among those who have not been part of the process of evolution. Or, hell, maybe designing more efficient methods (and reasons?) for killing is in itself evolution. Just don’t know any more.
Think it’s time to back off from all this and concentrate on the Zen thing at this point.
For Ilargi,
” Do not stand at my grave and weep
I am not there. I do not sleep.
I am a thousand winds that blow.
I am the diamond glints on snow.
I am the sunlight on ripened grain.
I am the gentle autumn rain.
When you awaken in the morning’s hush
I am the swift uplifting rush
Of quiet birds in circled flight.
I am the soft stars that shine at night.
Do not stand at my grave and cry;
I am not there. I did not die.” Mary Elisabeth FryeGreat synopsis!
And considering AU has pretty much outlasted governments for thousands of years, this one will likely be outlived by it as well. So, if one is simply looking for a portable bridge to the “Other Side,” well, we do still have options, no?
And considering the lust for power on the part of TPTB, shorting their abilities to crush deflation is a high risk proposition. Feel lucky?
Great estates are made of Real Estate, Precious Metals and Collectable Art. Most of these holdings are bought with no intention of selling, but to preserve wealth over very long periods. Don’t know of many old and lasting fortunes consisting only of fiat notes.
Also, this time around, I’m not too sure the general public is going to be as cooperative with government confiscation as in the past. California’s Prop 13 was an example.
Best point made in the article was one of priorities. Time to move to where one plans on making a stand for the duration. Mild climate, long growing season, reasonably sparse population density, water and wood sources etc. Skill sets and tools to fix or build things, and access to a sea port in case the best way to avoid trouble turns out to be to simply leave. Then, put any surplus in other tangibles.
Kerry,
Perhaps of interest.https://taskandpurpose.com/us-militarys-close-history-video-games/
Greenpa,
Some of the large scale corporate farmers I know freely admit they farm the government. They also acknowledge an unwritten policy of stepping on the competition while they are still ants.
One of these big “Starving Farmers” I heard of even had a full time mechanic crew specifically to work on his tractor used in “Tractor Pull Competition.” Also subsidized, no doubt.
Ah, the wonders of government protection.
On what constitutes an organic farm, one might want to talk to a professional Pesticide Applicator if he can find one who will speak off record. I know of one who works for an international chemical supplier who claims the lions share of his business is certified organic farms.
Humm, definitions established using the same semantics .gov is famous for? What the meaning of is, is, and such. But then, who does the FDA really represent?
rapier,
Truth is the first casualty of war. To counter the photo of a dead immigrant child on a beach, a rival political operator could, media willing, produce and circulate a photo of a child murdered by a refugee allowed legal status.
The trick is not to be lured in by the propaganda.
And, as always, when the elephants wrestle, the grass suffers, along with the truth.
Kind of off subject, but here ya go, for all the “Deflationists” out there,,,
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-02/hyperinflation-cannot-be-prevented-debtdeflation
Keep stacking those FRN’s at your own risk.
And one of these,,,https://www.zeromotorcycles.com
Wonder if I can get 0% Apr for around 10 years?
