ted
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I think you don’t quite understand…history does not repeat it rhymes ….this fall will not be identical to the great depression…there is a lot less oil and a lot more people, if the system falls it will be hard for the PTB to hold on….I know that privately they think they can but I don’t believe they can .There is just too much debt in the system…A great depression would be nice but I think unfortunately it is worse…………. that this is just not 1929……..
It appears that you are being drowned out from the websites that are all predicting a full out mad max collapse of society and zombies running in from all sides….shoot to kill etc……
How do your opinions differ from say a Gail the Actuary or an Orlov? And what can one do to prepare or should we even bother….DanI am wondering if all this will make more money flow to develop methane hydrates faster. If they do find a cheap way to develop them then it is all over for Russia….Japan thinks they are 7 years off….Ted
I If You Don’t Need It, DON’T BUY IT —- I wish it was that simple…but it is not….too many people now and not enough easy to get oil…few of us will survive…fewer will not want to survive…
It is hard to say professor…..there are a lot of strange things afoot….I have read so many blogs I think I am going to puke…I have noticed that the drumbeat is getting louder….That might be because on our finite world they are predicting collapse in less than 2 years and then a mad max type scene and then caveman status….I think things are bad but I wonder how much sensationalism adds to ones blog. That is why I like AE it does not seem to make predictions on a social level more of the facts….Ted
I can’t see how we don’t have a complete government takeover as well…the system is so broken we don’t have anything to compare to…the Great Depression…I wish we just had a Depression but I think by reading this and other blogs we are in a lot worse shape this time. I wonder if China is collapsing right now…Where I live, we had train after train taking coal to China now that number seems way down. They have a housing crises that makes our 08 crises look tiny, I expect as they fall you will see commodities come down a lot including Gold….
I prefer the comments here to the ones I have been reading on “our finite world” which all appear to be panic “We are all going to die!” comments. There will be no more oil almost over night etc….population decrease to 1 billion in 2 years….I am not saying it isn’t going to be hard going forward, but extremism on either side is hard to swallow… Their argument is that right now we are spending $1.50 to make a $1.00 in the oil industry…yes I agree with that but then you have deflation and at some point it should be effective to pull the oil out, you can’t give up oil completely and I don’t think we will. I believe that as Nicole put it we will have up swings and down swings from here on out. Ted“Interesting how fast things evolve these days.” Well while you were bragging about China look at this article that came out
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/china-yuan-set-for-worst-month-in-20-years-on-band-widening-bets.htmlRussia, Europe, England, Japan, China, the U.S what country is not bankrupt?! It all makes me think they will be more likely to sign a treaty, or some sort of debt write off…..What option do they have? Collapse, world war, starvation…..Ted
You are not a deflationist because you are holding a lot of precious metals….ie…Gold….and you have an emotional attachment to the situation at hand. Ted
I was listening to an economist on the BBC today and he said everything is fine for the U.S and Great Britain because they can purchase bad debt through the FED and then just write it off and it is gone…viola! I had a friend who is a physicist tell me the same thing…I did not know it was so easy! But seriously what happens to the debt that they purchase it has to go somewhere…it can’t just disappear …
I agree with you Rapier…it is like worrying about climate change when we might not even make it another 10 years….looks like collapse is getting closer and closer….Vegas odds are on 2 years right now…Danny
What do you mean restructuring of bank debt? Wouldn’t that cause a loss of confidence? I see hope in you that I don’t have any more. I see the system collapsing due to the many black swans out there….I don’t see a way out….Ted
Income inequality? While I agree it is a problem and sucks etc….it is really small potatoes now…the whole system is about to implode and it won’t make a difference if you were rich or poor when the collapse happens. With such an intrinsic system and no cheap easy to get oil. I think you should be feeling sorry for the rich who can’t do a damn thing with their hands except type letters to their lawyers. When the system does crash all that paper money that they are holding could be worthless….what are they going to do?….scary for them…..Ted
Just read Time magazine waiting at the Dr office and Yellen says she predicts the economy to really pick up in 2014. Where do they get this stuff….I guess they have to..,otherwise they have panic…Ted
Professor , I wish you were right but I don’t think you are. Well in some respects you are–yes prices won’t fall to ridiculous low prices. What will come out of this is anybody’s guess but I think it will be much different in form, lots of suffering and death. I started off this journey with much more optimism and hope about 13 years ago. The one thing I did not count on was the intrinsic nature of oil and how when cheap oil declines and is replaced with debt the societal structure breaks down. I was hoping for a stair step down.
TedI know you don’t like to comment on metals etc… but is there any truth to this story?
Why is the FED tapering? https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/30/fed-tapering/
“We’re going to need a generous laugh track when watching Washington, Wall Street and the financial media fall over each other in their attempts to spin that one into a feel good scene, ” We already have here is one from NPR, they state 3 times that the deficit is not a problems and most Americans are not worried about it…. https://www.npr.org/2014/02/04/271273908/the-deficit-the-talk-is-big-but-the-number-is-shrinking…. Ted
I like your articles and advice and I only have one problem with the basic ideas. And that is the statement “8) Be worth more to your employer than he is paying you.
That statement seems like a lack of understanding of the crash. What employer? What would that employer pay you with? Getting bogged down with someone who is paying you with empty promises will only set you back at the most important time. I am an electrician that is independent but if I went to work for someone else it would mean less money and less free time and less of a flexible schedule etc…it would not make sense in a collapse to work for someone else unless they could guarantee some sort of realistic payment and in a collapse that seems futile……Ted“The Fed’s control over interest rates is hot air entirely dependent on faith. Markets will let the illusion stand as long as the Fed feeds them for free, and as long as all parties confidently believe it will keep on doing it going forward. When it threatens to stop, real asset values must and will come into focus once more, and the markets will set interest rates.” While I agree with you on this one, when we get to this point it will be game over and all hell will break loose. At this point we have no idea what will happen, like a nuclear reaction we just don’t know how far everything will go. I don’t mean to be American centric but with everything based in U.S dollars we will be the last straw before the collapse. Nicole is right we are the best horse in the glue factory.
Is this another warning sign…. Germany must use its military more https://www.cnbc.com/id/101382198…. Will the banks be bailed out again this time? If the equity markets cease to be productive for banks will they start to lend out the money they have. I can’t understand the language of the FED they say they will keep interest rates at zero but how can they do this…..sorry for the convoluted message….
So if someone has money invested in the stock market and pension from the state university system and house paid off; how much at risk are they? I tried to explain to my father-in-law but he thinks he is untouchable because he did everything right. If the wealthy start to lose their money that is when you really see panic. But that is a lot of the problem is lot of people see problems ahead but as long as they play by the rules everything will be just fine. And while I agree it is nice to play along and agree that everything is working just fine, it can be overwhelming to plan for an outcome that you have no idea how bad it is going to be. The farm thing sounds great and all but what happens when you are overrun by starving people ravaging your crops? Ted
Can the U.S ever let interest rates rise. It seems like if they do then it is game over for all world economies.
Raleigh , That is pretty funny and sad at the same time!
Can anyone tell me when the collapse is close, there is a lot of people I want to give a big Fyou to…..I keep thinking it is just around the corner and then it is not…..it is starting to be like a biblical prediction. But it must be close no?
I cringe at the idea of “developing countries” and such….because it give the air of the United States has been helping this country out and it is in much better than the rest of the world. I think we are more vulnerable. Just like the Germans beating their chest and blaming the rest of Europe for being “lazy” and not saving. I believe in the bigger they are the harder they fall idea. Maybe things are as bad as they seem and we need the spying and heavy hand…just to prolong BAU for a little longer. Thanks Ben for giving us a few more years of peace before all hell breaks loose. Unless you believe this collapse is going to be orderly…..not here it won’t. Ted
Morgan’s research suggests that going from EROEIs of 80:1 to 20:1 isn’t disruptive. But once the ratio gets below 15:1, energy becomes a lot more expensive. He suggests the ratio will decline to 11:1 by 2020 and the cost of energy will increase by 50% as a consequence. What was the price of oil in 2005 and what is it now? Isn’t that a 50% increase. To say that it is only going to go up 50% ….well that sounds optimistic to me as we know that the shale plays will be about dead by then.
Andrew, There are a lot of straws on the camel’s back….which one that finally breaks it is still hard to tell but I am afraid we are getting very close. The FED has to pull back again on its QE and when it does enough the markets are going to go in a tailspin and then they will have to go back to QE and reveal that they have no control of the market. I used to think that Bernanke was making a big mistake….now I believe he was just buying us a few more years before collapse..He is quoted as saying when they see the situation they will understand why I did what I did. I wish we had 3 or 4 more of BAU but I am afraid we will be lucky to get out of 2014 without the water pulling out. It is easy to blame our leaders but what would you have them do…the are only human and scared for their families too. Their lives will be in jeopardy too… Ted
I believe you will be sitting at your computer to write one of these post and you will see it spread across the net like a great tsunami….and watch with awe as it comes.
Ilargi,
Well you are right…but what does it matter. The collapse that is coming will wash over all of us and very few will survive. Unless you were think a soft landing but I am afraid that even when you look at the facts that is not possible. The destruction that comes with financial collapse will be horrendous….What is going on with the U.S government? Janet Yellen was appointed to head the FED and there was not much of a hearing on it no real questioning of the FED spending. Spending of over a Trillion dollars is approved without much fanfare… are they finally getting the picture and so scared that they don’t know where to stand anymore? I know Janet Yellen must be scared and if she is not, she is not very bright; which may be why she got the job. I know people talk about slow collapse but that is not the nature of collapse; when people see what the readers here and elsewhere they will run for the hills as fast as their chubby legs can carry them. I know it is coming I just don’t know how my government will react and how much panic there will be. But I have noticed a lot more chatter on the anti BAU sites…so if that is any guage I think we are getting really close….Ted
I hate to say it but it is almost futile to prepare for an economic collapse. If you really want to move to a farm and do permaculture do it because you enjoy it…not because it will keep you safe….If you have food and everyone is starving around you do you really think you will be able to keep it? If there is the collapse you are talking about there will be no police to protect you…Canada the U.S or else where. It is best to enjoy your time now and love those around you and visit people while you still can. You can prepare for a collapse but without knowing how it all falls out will be like building the Maginot line…Ted
I have heard talk of a re-issue of currency…is that possible? I am sure they are trying think of everything…and before collapse we will see everything and things we never thought possible. There is all this talk that the FED won’t print money and hand it out….but put a gun to their head and I think they will see things differently. Ted
Yes but isn’t all the shale oil being funded by quantitative easing. You take away the FED and how do you finance drilling dry holes before you find a wet one? There would be no Baakan and Eagle Ford…The only thing I wonder about is the actions of humans….it has been said that the FED won’t put the money in the hands of the middle class and I think they might if the Barbarians are at the gate. I think we will be surprised what they do to save their skin. I don’t count anything out…..Ted
I too have missed out on money in the stock market….I have taken everything out….if it was still in the market how would I feel? Not very confident, being that I could not use it for another 35 years and projecting out there I think the world will be a different place by then. I think 4 years from now the world will be a different place! You have to be patient and go with the fundamentals and if you do that you know the markets are screwed up. The only real uncertainty is how the humans and governments will react. I should become a therapist there will be a lot of people losing their minds or on an optimistic note maybe finding their minds! Ted
Count me in…I need to get the video. There are so many sites out there that have so many pay walls that nickel and dime you. And I sometimes wonder if they are just trying to sell me precious metals etc….And where else can you ask the author questions and get them answered in a short time? Thanks for the Automatic earth and all your hard work. With the complexity of what is going on we need this website to disseminate and discuss the details. For example I was reading a blog called Financial Armageddon and they were saying that the FED is not monetizing debt….everything was behind pay walls so I could not read the full article but there are so many people out there claiming so many different things. Have you thought of putting your blog on for kindle readers? I know you tend to be Luddites but I would pay… Ted
It is always said that the U.S will be a reserve currency but what if other countries ie….Japan and China have to start bringing their money home out of the U.S market?
Nicole, recently the FED has said it will keep interest rates low for the next 3 or 4 years. Does it have the ability to do this? With the dollar as the reserve currency it seems that they will for some time. Ted
Can we actually say that governments can’t create inflation? My fear is that even though you have been spot on so far can it be possible that you are too invested in a “deflationary” outcome and miss seeing some other possible scenario that could happen. It seems like when talking about people’s behaviors we have no idea what the outcome will be. Why can’t we have Wiemar republic type inflation? Ted
There is always talk of deflation but if inflation happens then we have a totally different outcome and if one prepares for only deflation but then we have massive inflation…that puts someone in jeopardy. I don’t think we can underestimate the governments ability to manipulate currencies to keep status quo going on. I am not saying it is a fair system it is just one that wants to keep the system going for as long as it can at all cost. Ted
