Menu Icon

Debt Rattle May 6 2026

May 062026
 
 May 6, 2026  Posted by at 10:07 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  24 Responses »


Gustav Klimt Lady with a fan 1917-18
(sold for $108.4m June 27 2023)


• Trump Pauses Project Freedom (ZH)
• Strait of Hormuz Standoff Exposes Tehran’s Weakness (JTN)
• It’s Official: The Climate Scam Was a Scam All Along (Stephen Green)
• Canadian Prime Minister is Playing a Very Dangerous Game (CTH)
• Palantir Touts Record Expansion and ‘Battlefield’ AI Value (RT)
• How A Musk Victory Vs. Altman Would Reset America’s AI Roadmap (ZH)
• EU Slammed Over Multi-Billion AI Infrastructure Splurge Plan (RT)
• Elon Musk Reaches $1.5 Million Settlement With SEC Over Twitter Stake (ET)
• Russia Disregards EU As Possible Mediator In Negotiations On Ukraine (TASS)
• Colorblind Constitution: The Roberts Court Ends a ‘Sordid Business’ (Turley)
• Supreme Court Clears Way for Louisiana Immediate Redistricting (CTH)
• Samuel Alito Brutally Destroyed Ketanji Brown Jackson (Matt Margolis)
• Amsterdam Bans Advertisements Featuring Meat and Fossil Fuels (Turley)
• Ivermectin + Mebendazole In Cancer Patients (Nicolas Hulscher, MPH)

 


 

https://twitter.com/JDVance_News/status/2051094917544316977?s=20

 


 


Some of the confusion is deliberate. But not all of it. Trump doesn’t want to waste time with debates on/in Congress, where plenty folk are against anything he does just because it’s him.

• Trump Pauses Project Freedom (ZH)

There is a knee-jerk wave of optimism across assets with WTI crude futures lower, US equity contracts and Treasury futures higher after President Trump said Project Freedom will be paused.Trump also said there is progress toward a final agreement with Iran which is what investors really want to see as it could potentially mean a reopening of Hormuz. Trump statement on his TruthSocial feed (emphasis and spacing ours):


“Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally… …the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran……we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.” WTI crude futures are testing back below $100…

Polymarket odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has jumped to better than a coin-flip… Don’t hold your breath though as there have been several false starts of this kind before, and traders will soon lose faith unless there are more details from the Iranian side. Additionally late Tuesday, a French cargo ship was confirmed hit in a missile attack, injuring crew members: A cargo ship in the Gulf region was hit by a possible land-attack cruise missile, causing several injuries among the ship’s Filipino crew, two U.S. officials told CBS News.

The hit on the CGM San Antonio — which is owned by a French firm — took place late Tuesday evening local time, the officials said. The ship was near Dubai as of midday on Tuesday, but it is not clear whether the vessel has moved since then, according to public ship tracking data.

Rubio Declares Conflict in New Stage
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced Tuesday afternoon that offensive stage of Iran war is ‘over’. He further said that ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz are facing a humanitarian crisis and accused Iran of holding the world hostage by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is denying that it attacked the United Arab Emirates, with the foreign ministry saying its ‘defensive actions’ were ‘exclusively directed at the U.S.’ Operation Epic Fury is over, now Project Freedom. The remarks were issued just as a new attack is unfolding on a foreign cargo ship in the strategic waterway:

…as the goalposts keep shifting:

Trump Asked Whether Ceasefire is Dead
A revealing exchange in the Oval Office strongly suggests that even amid a second Iranian attack wave on the UAE Tuesday, the White House is unwilling to say that the ceasefire has collapsed – also given there’s yet been no direct exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces: President Trump, taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, would not specify what Iran would need to do to violate the cease-fire.

Asked by a reporter what would constitute a violation, considering that the country has fired on U.S. ships several times, Trump said: “Well, you’ll find out, because I’ll let you know.” He added that “they know what to do,” and “they know what not to do, more importantly.” Earlier the Pentagon clearly indicated that the ceasefire is still active, from Washington’s point of view. The Iranian government is meanwhile trying to bat down rumors of a division between the presidency and the IRGC/military apparatus.[..]

Read more …

“It is just complete, systematic dismantlement of the Iranian economy. And they have days, not weeks, left in terms of their oil storage. That’s 90% of their economy. They’re about to lose that. And their currency has lost 98% of its value over the last 10 years.”

• Strait of Hormuz Standoff Exposes Tehran’s Weakness (JTN)

Iran launched missiles at U.S. military ships and the United Arab Emirates, and American forces returned fire amid a fragile ceasefire. But Monday’s volley exposed the increasingly limited options Tehran faces with a severely diminished military and economy as it tries to counter the U.S. Navy’s assistance to commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. While Tehran managed to damage a South Korean tanker and an oil facility in UAE, it suffered the loss of seven gunboats sunk by U.S. return fire and faces increasingly dire circumstances as its drilling wells are near bursting because there is nowhere to ship its oil, experts said.


“This is all sort of coming down to, I believe, the final days here,” former Deputy National Security Advisor Victoria Coates told Just the News. “…Iran is obviously still trying to lash out, but the farthest they can get their missiles at this point is UAE. They’re looking for proximate targets. They don’t even try and shell Israel anymore.” “Their ability to strike others may be very limited, and then they’re really out of cards,” she added. Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, revealed Monday the U.S. military launched an effort to clear the way for dozens of commercial ships trapped in the Arabian Gulf to transit through the Strait of Hormuz off the Iranian coast.

The Iranians had responded to this effort by attempting to attack both the commercial ships and the U.S. naval vessels protecting them, he said. “The cruise missiles were going after those U.S. Navy ships, but mostly after commercial shipping. We defended both ourselves consistent with our commitment,” Cooper explained. “We defended all the commercial ships. We’ve had drone launches against commercial ships, all of which were defended against, consistent with our commitment. “And then the small boats were all going against commercial ships, and all were sunk by Apaches and Seahawk helicopters,” he added.

The admiral said that “there’s been no U.S. military ships hit” and that “there have been no U.S. flagships that have been hit.” The CENTCOM leader declined to say whether Iran’s attempted strikes were a violation of the weeks-old ceasefire struck between the Trump administration and the remaining Iranian leaders. “I wouldn’t go into details of whether the ceasefire is over or not. I think the key thing for us is we are merely there as a defensive force and in force to give a very thick layer of defense for commercial shipping to proceed out of the Arabian Gulf,” he said. “That is what we are focused on,” the admiral said.

Operation Epic Fury, launched just over two months ago, eliminated a raft of Iranian political and military leaders and did extensive damage to Iranian military capabilities, but the Iranians responded by seeking to control the strait. President Donald Trump had announced in a Truth Social post on Sunday that the U.S. military would be launching the “Project Freedom” effort to increase freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The president had also said there would be consequences if the Iranians tried to interfere.

“Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders!” Trump said. The president said that “for the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.”

The president also warned that “if, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully.” Cooper revealed Monday that the Iranians had indeed sought to interfere with this effort. Mike Waltz, a former Republican congressman and now the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, tweeted Sunday that “regardless of how you feel about the conflict over their nuclear program, Iran laying sea mines indiscriminately in international waters and attempting to ‘toll’ civilian commercial shipping is illegal and unacceptable.” He promised that “the U.S. and our Gulf partners will lead the way to defend global freedom of navigation.”

Admiral says blockade continues — and Project Freedom will pursue freedom of navigation Cooper explained Monday the U.S. naval blockade of Iran was continuing, and that the new Project Freedom effort to help guide commercial ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz was purely defensive.n“Today, the U.S. military is taking two separate actions in two separate bodies of water. First, we are enforcing the blockade in the Gulf of Oman. There is no commerce going into and out of Iran, and we will be sustaining this effort,” the admiral said. “Second, we have now opened a passage through the Strait of Hormuz to allow for the free flow of commerce to continue.”

The ongoing blockade “is going exactly as designed, and in fact exceeding my expectations,” Cooper added. That blockade, experts said, is putting Iran’s oil industry in an existential crisis because it will soon have to cap overflowing oil wells with nowhere to export the fuel. “The second front of this war is economic,” Coates told the Just the News, No Noise television show on Monday evening. “It is just complete, systematic dismantlement of the Iranian economy. And they have days, not weeks, left in terms of their oil storage. That’s 90% of their economy. They’re about to lose that. And their currency has lost 98% of its value over the last 10 years.”

Read more …

“The first is whether the American news media will follow the BBC’s lead and stop scaring people with end-of-the-world stories. The second is what the Left will use to scare us with next.”

• It’s Official: The Climate Scam Was a Scam All Along (Stephen Green)

It’s nice when something you knew was a fraud all along turns out to be a fraud, but it’s even nicer when the people perpetrating the fraud admit it was a fraud all along. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just published the next generation of climate scenarios,” science policy analyst Roger Pielke Jr wrote late last week, and in what he called “big news,” the new framework “eliminated the most extreme scenarios that have dominated climate research over much of the past several decades.” So the oceans aren’t about to boil off or freeze over or whatever the current scare story is?


Exactly: “The IPCC and broader research community has now admitted that the scenarios that have dominated climate research, assessment and policy during the past two cycles of the IPCC assessment process are implausible. They describe impossible futures.” This is important because the IPCC’s changes resulted in “an update to the Science Based Targets initiative’s rules eliminates the need for steep emission cuts by 2030,” Trellis reported on Friday. In other words, even the people committed to radically reduced carbon emissions now say we don’t need to radically reduce carbon emissions to save the world or whatever.

Without getting too technical — you can read Pielke’s full report for that, should you feel the need to go shoulder-deep in the weeds — the upshot is that the previous frameworks lacked “any systematic effort to evaluate plausibility of scenarios.” Now, however, “the new HIGH scenario is exploratory — a thought experiment, not a projection.” My guess is that the IPCC still includes the non-scientific, scary-sounding “HIGH scenario” because otherwise the money might dry up. Pielke added that “users of climate models and model output based on legacy scenarios will now face decisions about if and how they’d like to realign with the latest scientific understandings versus continuing to rely on outdated research.”

We’ll see how that works out. The new IPCC framework actually dates back to 2021, but is only now becoming “news” because a bunch of slow-moving pieces have finally lined up. That’s just how science works. But Pielke’s analysis is a week old, and the only way I learned about it was thanks to a Toby Young post on X — he’s editor-in-chief of the UK’s Daily Sceptic — that PJ Media’s own Charlie Martin found. Why, it’s almost as though the mainstream media doesn’t want to cover stories like this one. But for once, I don’t digress.

Even though it might be “purely anecdotal, the Daily Sceptic’s Chris Morrison believes that even the notoriously scaremongering BBC “seems to have moderated its wilder climate stories of late, with the ‘Climate’ topic on its News site relegated to the second tier of subjects,” effectively demoting climate scares to “rubbing shoulders with the picture gallery and the dumbed-down ‘Newsbeat’ offering.” So while today’s news is good — maybe even great — it does leave me with two questions. The first it whether the American news media will follow the BBC’s lead and stop scaring people with end-of-the-world stories. The second is what the Left will use to scare us with next.

Read more …

Carney is the no.1 WEF pawn against Trump. But not the only one. It’s Trump vs the world.

• Canadian Prime Minister is Playing a Very Dangerous Game (CTH)

Anyone who has ever dealt with a toxic narcissist understands the psychology behind their manipulative language, words and intents. What Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is doing here is very dangerous, particularly for the Canadian people. After a year of increased provocative language intended to confront President Trump for U.S. nationalist policy changes on economics, trade and security, Prime Minister Carney travelled to Europe where he again delivered strong remarks saying that Europe is now the center of the “rules based international order,” the western government control mechanisms that have maintained economic and security relationships for the past one-hundred years.


Essentially, Carney, after saying the USA was no longer a reliable or obedient partner, emphasized the opposition to state nationalism must come from a collective decision to retain the old geopolitical structures. President Trump must be opposed, and Europe -according to Carney- represents the assembly that will not permit state government nationalism (sovereignty) to replace their long-constructed globalist systems. Today, Prime Minister Carney faced questions about those remarks. I don’t want to influence the audience, but with the context in mind, watch and listen closely to his response. [Prompted]

[NOTE: The question comes from the Toronto Star, the only ‘conservative’ media outlet permitted under the rules of the Canadian regime to ask questions. All other outlets who might challenge the government viewpoints are strictly controlled and not permitted audience. Notice how Carney divides the world of opposition to President Trump, indicating the 5-Eyes nations of Canada, Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand are in opposition to Trump and in alignment with the old control mechanisms. Adding to this grouping, Carney pulls in the entire European continent and boldly proclaims his position as lead diplomat and representative for their effort against the USA.

This is a very dangerous game that Prime Minister Carney is choosing to play here. This is the behavior of a person who is toxically narcissistic and prepared to claim victim status as soon as his target hits back. Carney has carefully and purposefully deceived his domestic audience, and things are about to get very ugly. I must say something of a personal frustration…. In the bigger picture, expanding on the ancillary aspects that pertain to the geopolitical landscape that surrounds us, Carney is able to push this line this far because we have internal friction driven by people like Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens and other short-sighted “influencers, who do not recognize the scale of the moment.

President Trump is standing up to a globalist system that weakened the United States over several generations. The same voices who understand how toxic the United Nations, NATO, USAID and other international influences are to what remains of U.S. sovereignty, are the same voices attempting to divide Trump’s base of support while our President battles multinational influence operations; all because they have the same traits as Mark Carney underpinning their psychology. You either affix your bayonet against these forces, or in our lifetime there will be nothing left to fight over.

Read more …

“CEO Alex Karp casts the surveillance giant as “sentinels of the inner sanctum, against the assault of AI slop”.

‘Battlefield’ AI value’? What does that mean?

How do we react when AI is utilized to kill people? What becomes the winner in the AI field? The system that can kill most people?

• Palantir Touts Record Expansion and ‘Battlefield’ AI Value (RT)

Palantir Technologies reported a blowout first quarter, saying revenue rose 85% year on year to $1.63 billion as its US business more than doubled, driven by rapid growth across both commercial and government customers. The company said in its Q1 report, published Monday, that US revenue jumped 104% to $1.28 billion, with commercial revenue up 133% to $595 million and government revenue up 84% to $687 million. The results beat Wall Street estimates, and the company also raised its full-year guidance, saying it now expects 2026 revenue of up to $7.66 billion, implying annual growth of about 71%. CEO Alex Karp, who has increasingly framed Palantir’s AI tools as central to Western military and industrial power, said the “twin pistons of our US business are now firing in sync.”


“Palantir reports Q1 ‘26 U.S. revenue growth of 104% Y/Y and revenue growth of 85% Y/Y; raises FY ’26 revenue guidance to 71% Y/Y growth and U.S. comm revenue guidance to 120% Y/Y, crushing consensus expectations.Q1 U.S. commercial revenue grew 133% y/y and adjusted operating… ” “We believe it is not hyperbolic to say that nearly all AI workflows that actually create value – especially on the battlefield – are built on Palantir,” Karp wrote in an accompanying letter to shareholders, stating that the company “was founded to strengthen US national security, to protect Americans and their freedom.”

Palantir – named after the obsidian seeing-stones from Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings, through which the dark lord Sauron keeps watch on his underlings – is a software firm primarily serving the defense and intelligence sectors. Palantir’s flagship product is a system called Gotham, which pulls together and analyzes satellite footage, human intelligence from the CIA, signals intelligence from the NSA, and other data that might otherwise take days to sift through. Gotham and MOSAIC – another Palantir target-identification program that pulls digital data, including surveillance footage and IP addresses, from a target area – use AI to label the most effective targets for military strikes.

The US has acknowledged using these programs to select targets during its ongoing war on Iran, but insists that humans make the final decision to fire. Abroad, Palantir’s technology is used by the British Ministry of Defence, the Israel Defense Forces, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The company’s earnings update came weeks after Palantir drew criticism for a 22-point manifesto summarizing themes from Karp’s book The Technological Republic. The manifesto argued that Silicon Valley has an “obligation” to participate in national defense, that “hard power” will be built on software, and that AI weapons are inevitable. Critics labeled it a blueprint for “technofascism.”

Read more …

A lot hangs on this. If Musk doesn’t win, we get uncontrolled AI.

• How A Musk Victory Vs. Altman Would Reset America’s AI Roadmap (ZH)

A courtroom victory for Elon Musk in his high-stakes federal trial against Sam Altman and OpenAI would deliver one of the most disruptive blows to the artificial intelligence sector in its brief but explosive history – potentially forcing the $850-billion-plus company to unwind its for-profit empire, ousting its top leaders, and handing Musk a symbolic and financial hammer to reshape the global race for AGI while weakening one of its fiercest competitors.


The case is now being argued in a federal courtroom in Oakland, before Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers. The trial opened on April 28 and entered its second week on Monday, when OpenAI president Greg Brockman took the stand and confirmed his personal stake in the company is worth roughly $30 billion. Musk’s counsel returned to the figure more than a dozen times in two hours of questioning.

The Case
Musk co-founded OpenAI in late 2015 as a nonprofit and contributed roughly $38 million in its early years. He left the board in 2018. The following year, OpenAI created a capped-profit subsidiary to attract the capital that frontier AI now requires; Microsoft has since invested more than $13 billion. ChatGPT launched in November 2022. By 2025, OpenAI was preparing for what would have been one of the largest initial public offerings in history.

Musk sued in 2024. The original complaint contained twenty-six claims; only two survive – breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment – while the fraud claims were dismissed before trial. Microsoft is named as a co-defendant for allegedly aiding and abetting the breach, a detail often elided in summary coverage.The remedies sought are unusually sweeping. Musk wants OpenAI’s for-profit structure unwound and its assets returned to the nonprofit foundation. He wants Sam Altman and Brockman removed from leadership. And he is seeking up to $150 billion in damages from OpenAI and Microsoft combined, with any award flowing directly to OpenAI’s charitable arm rather than to Musk personally.

Structure of the Trial
Judge Gonzalez Rogers has bifurcated the proceedings into a liability phase, expected to conclude around May 21, and a separate remedies phase that would follow only if the defendants are found at fault. A nine-person jury sits during liability alone, and its verdict is advisory. Structural remedies – including any order to dissolve the for-profit subsidiary – fall solely to the judge. This procedural detail matters more than it may appear. Coverage that casts the jury as the decisive actor misreads the case. The jury can shape narrative momentum and offer a finding the judge may weigh, but it cannot order OpenAI to unwind anything. Whatever the verdict, Gonzalez Rogers writes the remedy.

What a Musk Win Would Actually Mean
Setting aside the $150 billion headline – which is a ceiling, not a floor, and is divided across defendants – three concrete consequences would follow a substantive ruling against OpenAI.

The first is restructuring. A finding that the 2019 capped-profit conversion and its 2025 successor breached a charitable trust would, at minimum, force a reorganization placing the nonprofit foundation back in unambiguous control. The IPO would be delayed indefinitely, if not foreclosed. Investor returns would be capped or rewritten. Microsoft’s roughly $13 billion stake, and the larger commitments that followed from Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia, would all face revaluation.

The second is leadership. Musk’s complaint seeks the removal of Altman and Brockman. Whether the court orders that remedy in full is uncertain; partial governance reform is the likelier outcome. Either way, the result would be destabilizing for an organization whose competitive position rests substantially on the people at the top of it.

The third is precedent, and it may prove the most durable. A ruling for Musk would establish that nonprofit-to-commercial transitions in American technology can be reversed years after the fact, once the entity has grown large enough to be worth reversing. Founders, donors, and investors in mission-driven labs would have to reckon with a previously hypothetical risk: that the structure they signed up for is the structure they will be held to, indefinitely.

The Defense
OpenAI’s response, articulated by lead counsel William Savitt, is that Musk himself supported a for-profit restructuring as early as 2017 – as long as he was placed in charge of it. When the other founders declined, he left, predicted the company’s failure, and later launched a competitor. The obvious angle here is that the lawsuit is a delayed instrument of competitive harm rather than a vindication of charitable principle. The defense will lean on contemporaneous evidence: Musk’s own emails proposing for-profit structures; his instruction to associates to register a for-profit corporation in OpenAI’s name; and Brockman’s private journal, which Musk’s team has used to suggest financial motive but which also records the founders’ resistance to handing OpenAI to Musk.

What Remains
Several witnesses are still to come. Altman has not yet testified. Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella is expected. Stuart Russell, the Berkeley computer scientist, will appear as Musk’s expert on AI risk; the judge has already declined a request from Musk’s counsel that Russell be permitted to range beyond his written report into extinction scenarios. Two days before the trial began, Musk texted Brockman to gauge interest in settlement. When Brockman proposed mutual dismissal, Musk replied that he and Altman would be the most hated men in America by week’s end. The judge declined to admit the exchange. No settlement has materialized.= The trial is expected to run another two to three weeks. The remedies phase, if it comes, will follow.

Read more …

“Brussels is set to announce plans to build massive computing hubs while critics stress there is almost no domestic artificial intelligence industry to use them”

The cart and the horse. They will have the infrastructure. But nothing and nobody to use it. Oh well, ask Santa.

• EU Slammed Over Multi-Billion AI Infrastructure Splurge Plan (RT)

The EU’s plan to spend over €20 billion ($23.5 billion) on AI gigafactories has drawn sharp criticism ahead of its formal launch as lawmakers and experts question whether there is any real demand for the facilities. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen first outlined the plan in February 2025 as the EU’s answer to large-scale US computing projects. It involves building four or five mega facilities with a formal call for proposals set for this spring. However, the project has been met with pushback from lawmakers. “Nobody could explain to me what is the business case they are planning with these gigafactories,” German Greens MEP Sergey Lagodinsky has said.


“I talked to some who are saying: ‘we just need more compute in Europe.’ But then, when I ask them, ‘what for?’ They say ‘it doesn’t matter, we just need more compute.’” Lagodinsky was quoted as saying by Politico. It is also unclear who the facilities would be used by, according to Nicoleta Kyosovska, a research assistant at a Brussels-based think tank. She described the planned datacenters as “cathedrals in the desert,” noting that Europe has only one AI company capable of using such infrastructure – the French startup Mistral, which is already building its own data centers. A Commission spokesperson has defended the plan by arguing that Europe requires computing sovereignty to avoid dependence on other continents.

The skepticism comes amid broader concerns over global AI overspending. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft reportedly plan to spend a combined $725 billion this year on AI infrastructure. However, Gary Marcus, a professor emeritus at New York University, has described the planned spending as the “greatest capital misallocation in history.” Tech analyst Ed Zitron has also noted that the economics of data centers “do not make sense” given that most AI startups are unprofitable and the majority of data center credit deals are rated junk grade.

Meanwhile, consumers have also been venting their anger over the global chip crisis sparked by overzealous AI development plans. “The reason why RAM has become four times more expensive is that a huge amount of RAM that has not yet been produced was purchased with non-existent money to be installed in GPUs that also have not yet been produced, in order to place them in data centers that have not yet been built, powered by infrastructure that may never appear, to satisfy demand that does not actually exist and to obtain profit that is mathematically impossible,” software engineer Jatin K Malik surmised.

Read more …

A $44 billion purchase and a $1.5 million settlement of the lawsuit the SEC hung on it. What percentage of it is that? 1% of $44 billion is $440 million, I think. You take it from there.

• Elon Musk Reaches $1.5 Million Settlement With SEC Over Twitter Stake (ET)

Tech billionaire Elon Musk on May 4 agreed to pay $1.5 million to resolve a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit alleging he violated securities laws over the delayed disclosure of his Twitter stake. A filing dated May 4 states that Musk’s revocable trust will pay a civil penalty of $1.5 million to the commission as part of the settlement, subject to approval by the court. According to the filing, once the proposed settlement is approved by the court, the SEC will “file a stipulated dismissal of Elon Musk in his personal capacity, which will resolve this case in its entirety.”


The SEC filed the lawsuit in January 2025, alleging that Musk violated federal securities laws by delaying disclosure of his stake in Twitter before his bid to buy the platform in 2022. The regulator said Musk crossed the 5 percent ownership threshold in March 2022, triggering a 10-day deadline to make the holding public. Musk did not disclose his holdings until April 2022, when he had already acquired a more than 9 percent stake in Twitter, according to the filing. The SEC said the delay had allowed Musk to buy shares at “artificially low prices” and enabled him to underpay by at least $150 million for his shares after his beneficial ownership report was due.

Musk had previously sought to have the SEC suit dismissed. In August 2025, his lawyers argued that the SEC targeted Musk over his outspoken criticism of the regulator and “government overreach.” Separately, in March, a federal jury held Musk liable for misleading Twitter shareholders by driving down the social media platform’s stock price months before acquiring it. The decision followed a civil class action lawsuit filed by Twitter investors in October 2022. Musk agreed to buy Twitter at $54.20 per share in April 2022 but later sought to back out of the deal, prompting the company to take legal action to enforce the deal. He ultimately completed the acquisition in October 2022 and rebranded Twitter as X.

In a verdict on March 20, jurors found Musk liable for misleading investors through two social media posts he shared in 2022. The first post said the deal was “temporarily on hold” pending verification that bots accounted for less than 5 percent of users on the social media platform. In the second post, Musk suggested that the percentage of bots could exceed 20 percent and said the buyout of Twitter could not go forward until he received confirmation that it was less than 5 percent. Musk’s legal team has said they plan to appeal the verdict.

Read more …

The EU is a direct participant in the conflict. They also want to be a mediator.

• Russia Disregards EU As Possible Mediator In Negotiations On Ukraine (TASS)

Russia does not see the European Union as a potential mediator in the negotiations on Ukraine, as it has become a direct participant in the conflict, said Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik.


“The European Union has made a lot of efforts to avoid being considered a neutral party in any capacity. And this is the main requirement for conducting or mediating the negotiation process. The EU has today taken over financial and military support for the continuation of hostilities and bloodshed in Ukraine. This is why, in this case, it is completely illogical to even raise the question that the direct participants, sponsors and stimulators of the process can act as intermediaries for dialogue,” the diplomat told Izvestia newspaper.

Miroshnik noted that Brussels has never proposed any specific ways of settlement, but if in theory it publicly expresses a unified position, Moscow will study it.

Read more …

“He holds the quaint idea that when the drafters of the 14th Amendment barred discrimination on the basis of race, they meant it.”

• Colorblind Constitution: The Roberts Court Ends a ‘Sordid Business’ (Turley)

The Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, barring racial gerrymandering, has many on the left feigning vapors, despite the predictions of many of us that this result was likely. While figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) declared that the court itself has been “gerrymandered” to rig the upcoming elections, this decision is actually the culmination of decades of jurisprudence by various justices — particularly Chief Justice John Roberts.


Indeed, the decision will cement the legacy of the Roberts Court in moving the country toward a colorblind system of laws. Like most Americans, Roberts abhors racial discrimination in any form. He holds the quaint idea that when the drafters of the 14th Amendment barred discrimination on the basis of race, they meant it. This is why, in 2006, Roberts famously wrote, “It is a sordid business, this divvying us up by race.” Roberts sees no difference between such discrimination when it disfavors one or another race. It is all a sordid business, and he has spent decades writing eloquent arguments for the court to abandon its conflicted and hypocritical approach to racial discrimination.

The court has struggled to rationalize using race to discriminate when it serves a higher purpose, such as greater equity or affirmative action. Some of those opinions were constitutionally incomprehensible. For example, in 2003, in Grutter v. Bollinger, the court divided five to four on whether to uphold racial admissions criteria used to achieve “diversity” in a class at the University of Michigan Law School. However, in her opinion with the majority, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor stated that she “expects that 25 years from now, the use of racial preferences will no longer be necessary to further the interest approved today.”

Few of us could understand how O’Connor found a type of expiration date on permissible racial criteria in the Constitution. Throughout that period, however, certain justices held firm that there is a bright-line rule against such racial criteria. That includes the author of the court’s Callais decision, Justice Samuel Alito, but also Roberts, who in 2007, put it succinctly: “The way to stop discriminating on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” One can certainly disagree with this interpretation and the low tolerance for racial criteria. However, this had nothing to do with the midterm elections. It is the result of dozens of opinions building up to this point.

From college admissions to gerrymandering, the court has created the bright line that figures like Roberts have long sought. In doing so, they have moved this country closer to a colorblind jurisprudence than at any time in our history. The Biden administration was found repeatedly to have violated the Constitution through racial discrimination in federal programs. Democratic leaders have fought this trend and have pledged to reverse these decisions. Some even demand that Democrats pack the Court with a liberal majority as soon as they retake power.

Last year, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services that whites cannot be placed under additional burdens when bringing discrimination lawsuits. Much of the coverage of the Callais decision is long on rhetoric and short on substance. The court did not “gut” the Voting Rights Act. It also did not strike down Section 2 of the act. Rather, the court held that neither the act nor the Constitution gives legislators authority to manipulate districts so as to effectively guarantee the race of the elected representatives — any race.

For decades, the courts have faced endless litigation over district configurations designed to elect minority representatives. It is a system that gave candidates an advantage based solely on their race. The court held that such racial gerrymandering is unlawful. The Voting Rights Act will now be read to prevent intentional racial discrimination. Courts will still bar any districts designed “to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race.” That does not mean that racial discrimination has been eliminated in our nation, or that we do not need to commit ourselves wholly to its eradication. The stain of slavery and segregation remains with us, as does the lingering scourge of racial prejudice.

African Americans and other minorities still face invidious discrimination that cannot be tolerated in our system. We still have much work to be done. In the area of voting rights, the courts have and will continue to strike down any rules designed to suppress or block minority voters. Despite this ongoing struggle with racism, there are reasons to be hopeful. As the Rev. Martin Luther King put it, “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” Non-whites are now powerful players in American politics. White voters are expected to be a minority in this country within two decades.

We have now elected a black president and a black vice president. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (who declared the Court “illegitimate” after the Callais opinion) expects to be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives. This progress was hard-fought, and both the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act played important roles in achieving greater racial diversity in our society. And the Callais decision is also part of that progress. We are moving into a new era where racial criteria and discrimination are neither rationalized nor tolerated. There is now reason to hope that we will indeed end “this sordid business, this divvying us up by race.”

Read more …

Gerrymander your heart out.

• Supreme Court Clears Way for Louisiana Immediate Redistricting (CTH)

The Supreme Court ruled Monday its prior ruling on race-based congressional districts takes immediate effect. The order {SEE HERE} speeds up the normal 32-day timeline and puts the State of Louisiana on notice their current districts are not constitutional.


Effectively the Louisiana Governor and legislature have delayed the election to address the districts. However, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was not happy with the immediacy ruling and wrote a dissent that was so ridiculous none of the other minority justices would sign on to it. Jackson said the majority “unshackles itself” from “constraints.” The court should follow the default rule, she insisted.

As noted by Politico, Justice Samuel Alito responded to Jackson’s accusation of political bias in a concurring opinion supported by Justices Clarence Thomas and Niel Gorsuch. Alito wrote that by suggesting that “running out the clock” by following the court’s default procedures may indicate bias “on behalf of those who may find it politically advantageous to have the election occur under the unconstitutional map.”

Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry has delayed the primary so state Republicans could get to work on a new map.
Read more …

“The dissent accuses the Court of ‘unshackl[ing]’ itself from ‘constraints.’ It is the dissent’s rhetoric that lacks restraint.”

• Samuel Alito Brutally Destroyed Ketanji Brown Jackson (Matt Margolis)

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Louisiana’s congressional map with a second gerrymandered majority-minority district was unconstitutional. That ruling put Louisiana officials on the clock — they need to redraw their congressional maps before this year’s midterms. On Monday, the court issued an order immediately putting last week’s Louisiana redistricting ruling into effect.

https://twitter.com/scotus_wire/status/2051442579430834263


And, of course, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson decided to make a scene about it. Justice Samuel Alito made sure she regretted that decision. Normally, the Supreme Court waits 32 days after issuing a ruling before formally sending the case back to a lower court. Challengers to Louisiana’s map asked the justices to skip the wait — and the court agreed, issuing an unsigned order to accelerate the timeline so the lower court could oversee an orderly map-drawing process before elections.

Jackson couldn’t let that stand without throwing a hissy fit. She called the order “unwarranted and unwise,” and claimed the court was “unshackling” itself from procedural “constraints.” Her central argument was that the court should stick to its default 32-day rule, and that by moving faster, the majority was essentially sanctioning chaos in Louisiana’s election calendar. It was a sweeping condemnation of her colleagues — rhetorical and forceful.The only problem? Nobody signed onto it with her.

Not one other justice — not even the two liberals who dissented in the underlying ruling — attached their name to Jackson’s dissent. That’s a remarkable fact. When you write a fiery dissent accusing your colleagues of abandoning judicial restraint, and even the justices who agree with you on the merits don’t want their names on it, something has gone wrong. This is par for the course with Jackson; even her fellow left-wing justices think that she’s a moron.

But the best part is that Alito wasn’t about to let the accusations stand. He issued a sharp written response, joined by Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, firing back with surgical precision. “The dissent in this suit levels charges that cannot go unanswered,” Alito wrote, rejecting Jackson’s framing and pointing out that her approach would force Louisiana to hold elections under a congressional map that the Supreme Court had already ruled unconstitutional.

Think about what that would mean in practice. A state holds an election. The map used to conduct that election has been struck down by the highest court in the land. Jackson’s answer to that problem is essentially: wait the 32 days anyway. Alito closed by turning Jackson’s own language against her: “The dissent accuses the Court of ‘unshackl[ing]’ itself from ‘constraints.’ It is the dissent’s rhetoric that lacks restraint.”

In short, that’s Alito telling Jackson, in print, that her writing lacks the basic discipline she claims to be defending. Unlike her dissent, Alito was joined by two colleagues who clearly felt the response was necessary. Now that’s a humiliating public rebuke. Jackson consistently positions herself as the court’s conscience — the justice willing to call out her colleagues for breaking norms. But, ultimately, she just positions herself as the court’s jester, who isn’t even that funny. It’s actually kind of frightening that she’s in such a powerful position.

Read more …

Amsterdam is the capital of Holland, but it’s not where the government is. That’s The Hague.

• Amsterdam Bans Advertisements Featuring Meat and Fossil Fuels (Turley)

In “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I write about how censorship often becomes an insatiable appetite once countries go down the road of speech regulation. There is no better example than the Dutch and their recent ban on public ads for meat and fossil fuels. Activists have imposed similar limitations on advertising for products in the United States, from alcohol to tobacco. However, the Dutch law reflects how this tendency can metastasize into shielding citizens from unhealthy choices or influences. It appears that Dutch painters such as Pieter Aertsen (with his work A Meat Stall with the Holy Family Giving Alms, above) were promoting harmful imagery in their work. As for Rembrandt’s “Slaughtered Ox,” the Dutch master is now little more than a climate change denier.


Starting on May 1, the ban on such images became part of Amsterdam’s push to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. While purportedly neutral on carbon, it is manifestly negative on free speech. As with other anti-free speech measures in Europe, this push again came from the left. The GreenLeft Party’s Anneke Veenhoff explained “I mean, if you want to be leading in climate policies and you rent out your walls to exactly the opposite, then what are you doing?” The answer is engaging in free speech. This is, of course, commercial speech, which is often subject to a lower level of protection. However, this shows the danger of using the differential standard to target products or industries viewed as unhealthy or ill-advised for consumers.

In Amsterdam, the ban will cover industries such as airlines, including KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, one of the largest employers and revenue generators in the country. Notably, activists compare this to cigarette advertising bans, confirming the very slippery slope danger that those companies raised when they were targeted. Hannah Prins, a paralegal at Advocates for the Future, is quoted as saying, “I don’t think it’s normal to see murdered animals on billboards. So I think it’s very good that that’s going to change.”bOther Dutch cities are now following suit, including Haarlem, Utrecht, and Nijmegen.

Of course, prostitutes still advertise live in Amsterdam and marijuana is a major industry for tourists. If you want drugs, there are ample choices. However, if you want a steak, you will have to rely on word-of-mouth directions.

Read more …

I saw Paul Craig Roberts post it, so I will too. It’s important. Even if I can’t give it the space it needs.

• Ivermectin + Mebendazole In Cancer Patients (Nicolas Hulscher, MPH)

Largest Real-World Analysis of Shows 84.4% Clinical Benefit — Nearly HALF Report Cancer Disappearance or Regression After just 6 months, 48.4% of cancer patients taking ivermectin and mebendazole reported no evidence of disease (32.8%) or tumor regression (15.6%), while 36.1% reported disease stabilization.


We have completed the largest real-world human analysis to date evaluating ivermectin and mebendazole in cancer patients—and the results represent one of the most compelling clinical signals ever documented for repurposed anti-parasitic therapies in oncology. The manuscript is now available as a preprint on the Zenodo research repository, operated by the European Organization for Nuclear Research, while undergoing peer review at leading oncology journals: “Real-World Clinical Outcomes of Ivermectin and Mebendazole in Cancer Patients: Results from a Prospective Observational Cohort.”

In this real-world prospective clinical program evaluation, a diverse population of cancer patients (n=197) were prescribed compounded ivermectin–mebendazole, with each capsule containing 25 mg ivermectin and 250 mg mebendazole. At approximately six months post-treatment initiation, we observed an 84.4% Clinical Benefit Ratio (CBR), with nearly half of cancer patients (48.4%) reporting either no evidence of disease (32.8%) or tumor regression (15.6%). An additional 36.1% reported disease stabilization. This means more than four out of five patients reported either improvement or stabilization of their cancer.

These results indicate that the inexpensive and safe off-label applications of these medications could be an important complement in the treatment of cancer. The groundbreaking analysis was made possible through a unique collaboration between The Wellness Company, the McCullough Foundation, and the Chairman of the President’s Cancer Panel—uniting real-world clinical data, frontline medical experience, and high-level epidemiologic expertise to deliver urgently needed insights in oncology.

 

 

PROJECT DESIGN: REAL-WORLD DATA, PROSPECTIVE FRAMEWORK

We analyzed a prospective observational cohort of 197 cancer patients, with 122 completing structured follow-up at approximately six months (61.9% response rate). Patients were prescribed a compounded ivermectin–mebendazole protocol by licensed U.S. providers, and outcomes were collected through standardized digital surveys assessing cancer status, adherence, and safety. Each capsule contained 25 mg ivermectin and 250 mg mebendazole, with dosing individualized by clinicians—most commonly 1–2 capsules per day, though a subset of patients used higher daily dosing or cyclic regimens depending on disease status and tolerance.

Importantly, this was a prospective, structured clinical program evaluation, capturing longitudinal patient-reported outcomes rather than retrospective recall alone—strengthening the internal consistency of the findings.

 

 

PATIENT POPULATION: ADVANCED, DIVERSE, AND CLINICALLY RELEVANT
Our cohort represents a broad and clinically meaningful cross-section of cancer patients, including prostate (27.9%), breast (18.3%), lung (8.6%), colon (5.1%), and a wide range of additional malignancies. This was not a population limited to early-stage or low-risk disease.

At baseline:
• 37.1% of patients reported actively progressing cancer

• Nearly half were within one year of diagnosis, while others had long-standing disease

• Many had already undergone standard therapies:
• •Chemotherapy (31.5%)
  • •Radiation (28.9%)
• •Surgery (42.1%)

This reflects a real-world oncology population, including patients with treatment exposure, ongoing progression, and complex clinical histories.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/GuntherEagleman/status/2051374459940946031?s=20

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Debt Rattle March 23 2026

Mar 232026
 
 March 23, 2026  Posted by at 9:42 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  106 Responses »


Claude Monet Misty Morning on the Seine 1897

This website relies exclusively on readers’ support.


• Saudi Arabia & UAE Inch Closer To Joining US-Israeli War (MEE)
• Trump Gives Iran 48-Hour Ultimatum on Strait of Hormuz (Catherine Salgado)
• Iran’s New Supreme Leader Has Never Been Seen Since Taking Office (ZH)
• Netanyahu: 48 Hours Proved Iran Is the ‘Enemy of Civilization’ (Salgado)
• America’s War With Iran Could Destroy NATO From Within (Sadygzade)
• The Middle East Crisis Is Rewriting Energy Security Doctrine (Vaid)
• Join The US Military – Kill And Die For Israel (McGlinchey)
• Artificial Intelligence Is Taking Over Political Campaigns (George Caldwell)
• Report: Pentagon to Adopt Palantir as Core U.S. Military System (CTH)
• Trump Says ICE Will Run Airport Security If Dems Don’t Fund TSA (Salgado)
• Senate Democrats Are Quietly Plotting To Oust Chuck Schumer (ZH)
• Russia to Refer Childless Women for Psychiatric Evaluations (Martin Armstrong)
• Rhinos back in African Park For First Time After 40 Years (RT)

 


 

https://twitter.com/Thevictoria76/status/2035326809483706368?s=20 https://twitter.com/Neccccy/status/2035362915256016913?s=20 https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/2035321243969241307?s=20

 


 


Splitting up the Arab world.

• Saudi Arabia & UAE Inch Closer To Joining US-Israeli War (MEE)

Earlier this month, Elbridge Colby, a senior official in the US Department of War, held a call with Saudi Arabian Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, who is also the brother and top adviser to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Iran’s attacks on US bases in the Gulf were heating up, and the US needed expanded access and overflight permissions. Saudi Arabia agreed to open King Fahd Air Base in Taif, in Western Saudi Arabia, to the Americans, multiple US and western officials familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.


The base is important because it is farther from Iranian Shahed drones than Prince Sultan Air Base, which has come under repeated Iranian attacks. Taif is also close to Jeddah, the Red Sea port that has become a critical logistics hub since Iran effectively took control of the Strait of Hormuz. Current and former US officials tell MEE that if the Trump administration is preparing for a longer war on Iran, Jeddah may be critical for sustaining US armed forces. Thousands of US ground troops are en route to the region from East Asia.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to expand base access, current and former officials say, underscores a shift in how the kingdom and some other Gulf states are responding to the US-Israeli war on Iran. “The attitude in Riyadh has shifted towards supporting the US war as a way to punish Iran for strikes,” a western official in the Gulf told MEE. Trump and the Saudi crown prince have been holding regular phone calls for the last three weeks, the US and western officials told MEE. The UAE has also told the US that it is geared up for a long war, putting no pressure on Washington to wrap up the conflict soon. In a phone call earlier this month, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told his counterpart, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that the UAE is prepared for the war to last up to nine months, the US official told MEE.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar lobbied US President Donald Trump against attacking Iran. While they host US military bases, the states insisted that they not be used as launchpads when the US joined Israel on 28 February to attack Iran. Despite this, the Gulf states have paid the heaviest price for the US’s decision to go to war. The UAE alone has intercepted 338 ballistic missiles and 1,740 drones since the start of the war. Qatar suffered the worst attack of any Gulf state despite being a critical mediator that has consistently focused on de-escalation. Iran responded to an Israeli attack on its South Pars gas field this week by launching missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery. The damage will take three to five years to repair and affects 17 percent of Qatar’s gas production, according to Qatari energy minister Saad al-Kaabi.

Some states, like Oman, have said that Israel hoodwinked the US into launching an unlawful attack on Iran. There is also anger at the US over its value as a security guarantor. The US has been unable to replenish the Gulf states’ Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence interceptors. The US bases in the Gulf, meant to protect the Arab monarchies, have been targeted. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports have ground to a halt. Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi wrote in The Economist this week that this is “not America’s war” and that Washington’s allies needed to make clear to the US that it was dragged into a conflict with little to gain.

Busaidi’s remarks contrasted with those of Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. After Riyadh and the port of Yanbu were attacked by Iran, he delivered a blistering message to the Islamic Republic. One former US intelligence official described it as “fighting words”. Farhan said Iran had committed “heinous attacks” which “are an extension of [Iran’s] behavior that is based on extortion and sponsoring militias, threatening the security and stability of neighbouring countries”. “Saudi Arabia has repeatedly tried to extend its hand to the Iranian brothers…but the Iranians did not reciprocate,” he said, adding that the kingdom reserved the right to take “military action”.

While no one in the Gulf wanted a war with Iran, the Gulf states are approaching the conflict from varied, evolving perspectives as it drags into its fourth week, experts say. Saudi Arabia is the largest country in the region, and like the UAE, it has ambitions to project hard power abroad. In fact, Saudi Arabia attacked the UAE’s allies in Yemen just before the war on Iran erupted. Oman has carved out a niche for itself as a mediator. As one of the countries least hit by Iran in the region, the relative security of its capital, Muscat, is also being noticed by expatriates leaving Dubai. “There is a divide emerging in the Gulf,” Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, who speaks with the Saudi Arabian crown prince, told MEE.

“Saudi Arabia and the UAE were neutral before this war. But as they have been attacked, they have come to the realization that they cannot live with this hardline Iranian regime next door, which can, at a moment’s notice, extort the region by closing the Strait of Hormuz,” he added. The Saudi capital, Riyadh, and the kingdom’s energy infrastructure have been targeted by Iran. But the conflict is widely seen in the region, and increasingly inside the US, as an Israeli power grab. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said that Israel is guilty of committing genocide in Gaza. The Israeli war on the enclave has killed over 72,000 Palestinians since it started in October 2023.

Read more …

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!”

• Trump Gives Iran 48-Hour Ultimatum on Strait of Hormuz (Catherine Salgado)

President Donald Trump has delivered a specific deadline to the terror-sponsoring Iranian regime to stop terrorizing a strategic waterway or face devastating consequences. On the afternoon of Saturday, March 21, Trump posted on Truth Social, “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”


The Trump administration has been trying to pressure other nations into helping patrol the Strait of Hormuz, which is actually much more necessary for their economies than for ours, but most of the governments have been reluctant to commit any resources. Great Britain, Japan, France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands finally issued a joint statement expressing a willingness to help protect the strait, but it is not clear if they have actually provided the means to do so as of yet.

Besides Israel, which has been America’s partner in the joint Iran operation, none of our allies seemed eager to step up to the plate, and many of them actively complained about the operation. The Republic of Somaliland has offered a long-term military and economic partnership with the United States in exchange for recognition, but the Trump administration has not yet accepted the offer. Besides our allies’ whining and moaning, one of Trump‘s pet peeves throughout this Iran operation has been Western mainstream media claiming the operation has been a disaster for America. He addressed another such claim on Truth Social just before delivering his ultimatum to the Iranian regime.

“The United States has blown Iran off of the map, and yet their lightweight analyst, David Sanger, says that I haven’t met my own goals,” the president posted. “Yes I have, and weeks ahead of schedule! Their leadership is gone, their navy and air force are dead, they have absolutely no defense, and they want to make a deal. I don’t! We are weeks ahead of schedule. Just like their incompetent Election coverage of me, The Failing New York Times always gets it wrong!”Trump also hinted that the Iran operation is going so successfully that it might be coming to a close soon. In a Friday post, he declared:

We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.”

As noted above, the strait remains a key area of concern for him as foreign hysteria about it impacts international energy prices. “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” Trump wrote bluntly. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”Israel and America are doing the whole world a favor by taking down the worst terror-sponsoring regime on the planet.

Read more …

First ever AI leader.

• Iran’s New Supreme Leader Has Never Been Seen Since Taking Office (ZH)

Amid widespread reporting that Iran had long ago moved into a emergency wartime decentralized command among autonomously-acting units, serious questions persist as to the role of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his slain father, longtime leader Ali Khamenei. What’s clear is that the new, younger Khamenei – who may have been wounded in the early days of US-Israeli strikes, hasn’t been seen in any public way, not even on TV, throughout the war. There have not so much as been official recent images of him circulated. This has raised obvious questions on the degree to which the Ayatollah is actually running the country and the wartime response, also after national security official Ali Larijani was killed. Larijani had clearly been the interim public face of the Islamic Republic, before his death less than a mere week ago (reportedly on March 17).


In the meantime The Wall Street Journal on Saturday writes that Iran is filling the gap of the Ayatollah’s public absence with AI and voice-overs: In his first, fiery address to the Iranian nation on March 12, new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to “avenge the blood of our martyrs” and to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. That message of defiance wasn’t delivered by Khamenei himself: It was read out on state television by a female news anchor. Since then, the mystery surrounding Khamenei’s whereabouts and well-being has only deepened. Khanenei hasn’t appeared in public, nor has the Iranian government issued new images of him or even recordings of his voice.

His 86-year old father did not appear to have been in hiding at all when he was slain by airstrike on the very first day of Operation Epic Fury. It could be that the younger Khamenei is directing the war from a much more secure and hidden setting, for example a deep underground bunker – or in a remote part of the country. Axios newly reports:The CIA, Mossad and other intelligence agencies around the world were watching during Nowruz on Friday to see whether Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei would follow his father’s tradition and give a new year’s address.The intrigue: When the holiday passed with only a written statement from Mojtaba, the mystery around his physical condition, whereabouts and role in Iran’s war effort deepened.

As for who is really at the helm of the Iranian state, there’s little doubt that the elite IRGC is now largely driving the response. To some degree, amid ongoing reports of assassinations by aerial bombing of a slew of top military leaders, it doesn’t ultimately matter who precisely is in charge. Iranian institutions have deep benches, in the sense that especially high military officials are replaceable.

https://twitter.com/MirzaMahan/status/2035371388861571168

At the same time, Tehran has signaled it is ready for a ‘long war’ – and will keep fighting while imposing a high cost on its attackers. This means it doesn’t have to ‘win’ in a conventional sense, but just has to survive and exact pain. The WSJ writes, “Three weeks into the war, the Iranian regime is signaling that it believes it is winning and has the power to impose a settlement on Washington that entrenches Tehran’s dominance of Middle East energy resources for decades to come.”

Read more …

And Bibi’s the friend?!

• Netanyahu: 48 Hours Proved Iran Is the ‘Enemy of Civilization’ (Salgado)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu impressed upon foreign nations griping about the joint U.S.-Israel Iran operation that the Islamic regime of Iran is an enemy to civilization — and even to human life itself.It is rare to find a conflict in history where one side is thoroughly evil and even demonic, while the other side is fighting for truly noble goals. But the fight between America and Israel (and the Persian people) on oneside and the terrorist Iran regime on the other is just such a conflict. The Iranian regime is literally illustrating that more every single day.


Just after an Iranian strike caused a mass casualty event in Arad, at least 25 people including a 10-year-old boy also suffered injuries from Iranian missile fire striking the city of Dimona, Israel. From the scene of the strike, Netanyahu said, “If anyone needed explanation of why Iran is the enemy of civilization, and the enemy and the danger to the entire world you got it in the last 48 hours.”

He explained further, “In the last 48 hours, they fired … on civilians, on children. There’s a children’s nursery here. There’s an old …person’s home here. Civilians, families, they fire terror weapons on civilians. And often they use cluster bombs, which are forbidden by international law.” Besides that, Netanyahu emphasized, “The second thing that [Iran’s regime] did is that they fired on Jerusalem right next to the holy places. They sent ballistic missiles that could have destroyed the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, Al Aqsa Mosque, and the Western Wall, the three holiest sites to the three monotheistic religions, they don’t care. They fired at everyone.” https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/2035025896440996079

Thirdly, Netanyahu stated, Iran’s regime “fired an intercontinental ballistic missile 4,000 kilometers right into Diego Garcia, the American British base. They can reach down with these ballistic missiles everywhere in Europe, almost everywhere in Europe. I’ve been warning that for years.” This is why NATO needs to quit whining about Donald Trump and realize this is their war too. Speaking of which, Netanyahu’s fourth point was Iran’s regime having “shut down the important maritime Strait of Hormuz trying to blackmail the world with oil — terror blackmail. Four things that they’re doing in 48 hours.”

Read more …

EU countries are doing that. Ever since it was founded.

80 years later, Trump is the first one to say something.

• America’s War With Iran Could Destroy NATO From Within (Sadygzade)

The widening confrontation driven by the military actions of the US and Israel against Iran is exposing something far larger than a regional crisis. It is revealing the accelerated decomposition of Western unity at the very moment when the old architecture of unchallenged American hegemony is visibly fading. In that sense, the strikes on Iran are not simply an act of escalation in one theater. They are a historical stress test for NATO itself, for the credibility of Washington’s leadership, and for the entire Western claim to strategic coherence in an age of global turbulence.


For decades, the Atlantic alliance rested on a simple assumption. The US would lead, Europe would follow, and even when there were frictions, the structure would hold because all parties believed that the preservation of American primacy was identical with the preservation of their own security. That formula is breaking down in real time. The war around Iran has made this impossible to ignore. Western European leaders are no longer merely expressing discreet discomfort or ritual concern. They are publicly and demonstratively refusing to be drawn into an American military adventure whose goals they do not understand, whose consequences they do not control, and whose costs they know they will be forced to absorb. Germany, France, the UK, and Spain have all rejected direct involvement in the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, while leading European officials have stated in essence that this is not their war, that Europe had not been properly consulted, and that Washington had not offered any convincing plan for success.

That matters because the dispute is not about tactics alone. It goes to the heart of alliance politics. If Washington can ignite a conflict with enormous global implications and then demand support from its allies after the fact, while offering neither consultation nor a credible endgame, then NATO ceases to function as an alliance of coordinated strategy and begins to resemble a system of imperial requisition. The Europeans understand this. Their refusal is a message, that the US increasingly treats its allies not as sovereign partners but as instruments to be mobilized after decisions have already been made in Washington and West Jerusalem. It says that when the strategic center becomes erratic, unilateral, and ready to externalize risk, the periphery begins to detach.

Donald Trump’s own rhetoric has thrown this reality into even sharper relief. When NATO members refused to support the American effort around Iran and to commit naval forces to the Strait of Hormuz, Trump did not respond as the steward of an alliance. He responded as a resentful patron whose clients had failed to obey. Media reports quoted him calling NATO’s refusal a very foolish mistake and making it clear that the US would remember that everyone agreed in words but did not want to help in deeds. In the same political atmosphere, he also signaled that because of American military power, the US no longer needed or desired NATO assistance and, in essence, never truly had. Washington is increasingly willing to threaten, humiliate, or discard its own allies whenever they cease to be tactically useful.

This is why the current split is so serious. It is not only Europe resisting a war. It is Europe being forced to confront the possibility that the US would rather risk the cohesion of NATO than restrain its own escalation. In other words, Washington appears increasingly ready to sacrifice not only the comfort and stability of its allies, but potentially the political substance of the alliance itself, if preserving American freedom of action requires it. That is what imperial decline often looks like. A hegemon in ascent builds institutions because institutions extend its reach. A hegemon in decay empties those same institutions of meaning because they begin to constrain its impulses.

Read more …

The EU is the odd one out.

• The Middle East Crisis Is Rewriting Energy Security Doctrine (Vaid)

Missile and drone attacks on energy hubs across the Gulf have drawn the wider US-Israeli war with Iran directly into the core of global energy routes. Within three weeks, the region has shifted from a zone of latent risk to the epicenter of heightened security concerns around energy infrastructure and commercial shipping. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 21% of global petroleum liquids, has transformed from background anxiety to an overt risk corridor. As insurers reassess exposure and tanker activity slows, the chokepoint itself has become the flashpoint for geopolitical contagion into energy markets.


A week into the conflict, the United States pledged naval escorts and broader supply side measures, however it failed to secure backing from European allies to get involved militarily. On March 19 a host of European countries, as well as Japan and Canada, had expressed their readiness to contribute to efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters on the same day in Brussels that Berlin would only involve itself in the region after military action comes to a halt, stating, We can and will only be able to get involved once the guns fall silent.

While various data and media report suggest that some tankers are effectively able to traverse the Straight, for which some countries, including Pakistan, China, Iraq, and Malaysia are having talks with Iran, safe navigation has still not been fully restored, and markets remain unconvinced that diplomatic signaling alone can quickly normalize flows.

Oil markets reacted swiftly, as Brent rose above $119 per barrel on March 19 before easing to about $109.85 on March 20, still leaving it nearly 7% higher for the week. More strikingly, the benchmark Middle East Dubai crude hit a record of around $166.80 per barrel, underlining how physical market tightness is now outpacing headline futures benchmarks. Analysts continue to warn that any sustained Hormuz disruption could push crude far higher. Even absent a full blockade, costlier freight, insurance, and rerouting are embedding a durable war premium, redefining OPEC+ s role, and especially the Saudi Russia axis, as guardians not just of oil prices but of the credibility of Gulf sea lane security itself.

Read more …

“Once again, US service members are thrown into an unjust war for a foreign power ..”

• Join The US Military – Kill And Die For Israel (McGlinchey)

President Trump’s decision to join Israel in launching a regime-change war on Iran has so far cost the lives of at least 13 American service members. More than 200 have been wounded, dozens seriously enough to require evacuations to military hospitals in Europe and the United States. Among them are individuals who’ve suffered traumatic brain injuries, burns and shrapnel wounds. One was facing potential amputation of an arm or leg. As much as these service members and their families are victims of Iran’s justified retaliation for a surprise attack perpetrated amid ongoing negotiations, they’re victims of a betrayal perpetrated by their president and the joint chiefs of staff, who cast them into an unconstitutional war of aggression, packaged in lies and initiated to advance the agenda of a foreign government, while undermining the security of their own country.


Of course, US casualties comprise a small subset of the total bloodshed. In executing this unjust war, Americans have collectively inflicted far more death and dismemberment than they’ve endured, teaming up with their Israeli counterparts to kill more than 3,000 Iranians, including some 150 schoolgirls — mostly between age 7 and 12 — whose school was destroyed by Tomahawk cruise missiles at the war’s very start.

Though it should have already been apparent, Operation Epic Fury should make clear that — service members’ good intentions aside — combat waged under the US flag rarely has anything to do with American security. Moreover — and I say this as former Army Reserve enlistee and Regular Army officer — anyone thinking of starting or extending a military career should understand that their government may send them to be killed, maimed or psychologically damaged, and to slaughter foreign innocents, so long as it helps those in power remain in the good graces of the extremists who rule Israel, and their powerful collaborators inside the United States.

A New Regime-Change War Built On False Premises
Under international law, a war of aggression is considered a supreme war crime unto itself, and Operation Epic Fury is precisely that. Like so many of America’s wars before it, this one was launched on false premises. Contrary to the US-Israeli narrative… Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon. In 2007, the US intelligence community assessed that Iran halted any effort to develop a nuclear weapon in 2003. Since then, the intelligence community has periodically re-validated that conclusion, most recently in March 2025. Belying Trump’s claim that the United States had only two weeks in which to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard this week testified that Iran had made “no efforts” to rebuild its enrichment capacity after it was devastated by last summer’s US bombing.

Note that, in 2005, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa — a formal interpretation of Islamic law — asserting that “the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the Islamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire these weapons.” In the opening act of their latest warfare on Iran, the United States and Israel collaborated to kill him.

Iran did not stray from the 2015 nuclear deal until Trump did. When Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was in full compliance. Among other things, the JCPOA required Iran to eliminate its medium-enriched uranium, slash its cache of low-enriched uranium by 98%, limit future enrichment to 3.67%, agree to even more external monitoring than it was already submitting to, and render its heavy-water reactor worthless by filling it with concrete. After Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in 2018 and reinstated sanctions, Iran waited a year, but then began straying from its own commitments, using elevated enrichment as a lever to push for a new agreement and relief from suffocating sanctions. Iran says the JCPOA permitted it to suspend its commitments after Trump’s withdrawal, citing language governing “material breaches” and “significant non-performance.”

Read more …

How far can you go? What if you make your opponent say terribly racist things in AI?

• Artificial Intelligence Is Taking Over Political Campaigns (George Caldwell)

Artificial intelligence is dominating the 2026 midterms—and not just as a political issue. Major congressional campaigns are increasingly using “deepfake” AI technology in videos that slam their opponents and amplify endorsements from allies. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, is seeking to fend off a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and is employing some unusual strategies. The Cornyn campaign released an AI-generated music video with a parody of the B-52s’ 1989 hit “Love Shack” as the soundtrack. It depicts an animated likeness of Paxton engaged in corruption and marital infidelity.


The B-52s told TMZ in a statement upon the ad’s release, “Today we learned that our song ‘Love Shack’ is being used without our approval for a political attack between two politicians in the beautiful state of Texas. We do not endorse either candidate. We have already formally demanded the song immediately cease to be used in this tasteless and illegal way.” The Cornyn campaign declined to comment on the ad’s use of AI and whether it had responded to the band’s request. Paxton’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) recently employed deepfake technology to go after Texas Democrat Senate nominee James Talarico for past social media posts.

The state representative is attempting to win in a state that has not elected a Democrat U.S. senator since 1988. “Radicalized white men are the greatest domestic terrorist threat in our country,” a realistic likeness of Talarico says, quoting an actual 2021 social media post from the candidate. The NRSC ad includes a small watermark in the corner stating that the content is “AI generated.”

“In my faith, God is non-binary,” Talarico’s likeness says later, quoting another 2021 post. Talarico’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the video’s representation of him. Jesse Jackson Jr., who lost in the Democrat primary for Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District on Tuesday, used AI to amplify an endorsement from former Rep. Bobby Rush, who represented the state’s 1st Congressional District for three decades. Rush’s voice has been weakened due to throat cancer. At the beginning of the advertisement, he speaks with his natural voice before his digitally altered voice kicks in.

“Cancer damaged my vocal cords, but it didn’t take away my voice,” Rush says. “I’ve asked the producers to use AI, artificial intelligence, to help me.” He says in his altered voice, “Like me, Jesse is a lifelong social justice warrior and passionate advocate for the marginalized.” Jackson, the son of the late Rev. Jessie Jackson, served in Congress from 1995 to 2012 alongside Rush, but left amid a fraud investigation, for which he later spent time in prison. He lost his primary on Tuesday.

Read more …

AI.

• Report: Pentagon to Adopt Palantir as Core U.S. Military System (CTH)

Recently when the Anthropic software and ideology conflict with the Pentagon surfaced as a result of limits placed by the provider, alternative provider Palantir’s CEO remarked that any AI developer who challenges the U.S. military application of the product was foolish because the U.S. government could just take control of the company under the claim of national security.In essence, Palantir CEO Alex Karp was saying AI developers who contract with the govt ultimately become bound to the limits or lack thereof as determined by the govt. If software developers want to contract with the military, then fight the Pentagon over use of those software applications, they will lose.


In response to the Anthropic issue, the Pentagon withdrew from their purchase arrangements and blacklisted them from further federal contracts. Now a report is highlighting that Palantir will take the lead position in providing the software, the Maven Smart System, for the core U.S. military functions.As described, “Maven is a software platform that uploads information from drones, satellites, sensors, radar, and other battlefield intelligence sources. The system then analyzes battlefield data in real time, identifying and prioritizing potential targets — including buildings, enemy vehicles, and weapons and ammunition stockpiles — for intelligence analysts to review and act on.”

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) – Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across the U.S. military. In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters “with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains”.

The decision is expected to go into effect by the close of the current fiscal year, which ends in September, according to the letter, which was reviewed by Reuters and has not been previously reported.Maven is a command-and-control software platform that analyzes battlefield data and identifies targets. It is already the primary AI operating system for the U.S. military, which has carried out thousands of targeted strikes against Iran over the last three weeks.

Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX) and Alex Karp (Palantir)
Read more …

“.. Trump and the American people are fed up with the nonsense, all inflicted on behalf of illegal alien criminals.”

• Trump Says ICE Will Run Airport Security If Dems Don’t Fund TSA (Salgado)

President Donald Trump just made a major power move in the ongoing fight with Democrats over funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), as he threatened to put immigration officers in charge of airport security if funding is not immediately forthcoming. Chaos continues to reign at many American airports as the partial Democrat shutdown lengthens and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees increasingly don’t show up for work, leading to extremely long lines and travel delays. The Democrat congressmen who don’t have to deal with ordinary TSA lines don’t care, but Trump and the American people are fed up with the nonsense, all inflicted on behalf of illegal alien criminals.


Trump warned on Truth Social Saturday, “If the Radical Left Democrats don’t immediately sign an agreement to let our Country, in particular, our Airports, be FREE and SAFE again, I will move our brilliant and patriotic ICE Agents to the Airports where they will do Security like no one has ever seen before, including the immediate arrest of all Illegal Immigrants who have come into our Country.” With tens of millions of illegal aliens in our country, the likelihood is that a fair number of them are using air travel. Wouldn’t it be interesting to know just how many? And to top it off, Trump promised Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers would have a “heavy emphasis on those from Somalia, who have totally destroyed, with the approval of a corrupt Governor, Attorney General, and Congresswoman, Ilhan Omar, the once Great State of Minnesota. I look forward to seeing ICE in action at our Airports. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Honestly, it would be pretty amazing to see this threat put into action, partly out of curiosity to see just how many illegal aliens and criminals ICE would find flying, and partly because Democrats’ heads would literally explode. The DHS funding showdown affects millions of people. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy posted on X in frustration, “Hardworking TSA agents are sleeping in their CARS to save money on gas because Democrats won’t end the SCHUMER SHUTDOWN and fund DHS! What happened to the Democrats who claimed to be the party of the WORKING CLASS?!” The party of slavery has always lied about its dedication to the American working class, but its false pretense is particularly obvious right now.

This is exactly the way that Republicans should be dealing with Democrats, not granting them concessions, but putting the pressure on them to do the right thing. We cannot trust anything Democrats say, and multiple Republican presidents have found out to their cost after they made unwise concessions that they were the only ones who intended to uphold the bargain. Our national security and immigration enforcement are much too important to gamble away bit by bit on trying to please Democrats who will never be happy with any amount of compromise. So instead, Republicans should be threatening consequences that will panic Democrats, like replacing TSA with ICE.

Read more …

They want someone who refuses all talk.

• Senate Democrats Are Quietly Plotting To Oust Chuck Schumer (ZH)

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has had a fractured relationship with the Democratic Party base ever since he voted to fund the government last March. Unfortunately for him, time hasn’t healed that wound, and there’s a growing resistance to Schumer that hopes to oust him from his leadership position after the midterms. The Wall Street Journal, drawing on more than four dozen interviews with Democratic senators, candidates, current and former congressional aides, activists, and advisers, found widespread unease about the New York senator’s grip on the party’s direction. The report makes it clear that Schumer’s own colleagues increasingly see him as an anchor, slowing their response to President Trump, steering primaries toward centrists they don’t want, and draining the fundraising pipeline that Democrats desperately need heading into the midterm elections.


According to the report, last month, Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut met with progressive activists at a French restaurant in Georgetown. The conversation turned to what to do about Schumer. According to people familiar with the dinner, Murphy disclosed that some lawmakers had already been running informal vote counts to see whether enough support existed to remove Schumer from his leadership post. Murphy added that Schumer had enough backing to survive. But the fact that anyone was counting at all said something. Murphy has since walked it back, carefully. “Could someone infer from that that someone was keeping a count? Maybe, but that’s not what I meant,” he told reporters. “I meant that he has the support of the caucus.”

But Murphy’s backpedaling doesn’t change the reality. Murphy is reportedly part of a group of senators who have been actively canvassing colleagues about their frustrations with Schumer. This group, nicknamed “Fight Club,” (hey…) is a Signal chat group where progressives coordinate strategy around opposing Schumer’s preferred candidates in key 2026 races. The Fight Club’s grievance, at its core, is that Schumer is tilting the playing field toward centrists while an insurgent energy on the left goes untapped. The group includes Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) and Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), and it appears that Warren has been initiating those conversations directly. Smith’s advisers have gone further, holding discussions with other Senate staff about concrete scenarios to challenge Schumer’s leadership.

The concern isn’t purely ideological. It’s financial, and that’s where things get uncomfortable. Schumer’s aligned super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, got outpaced by its Republican counterpart last year. Entering 2026, the Democratic super PAC had $36 million in cash on hand and $12.4 million in debt. The GOP’s equivalent had $100 million on hand and zero debt. In the money primary – the one that quietly decides Senate races before a single vote is cast – Schumer’s side is getting lapped Making matters worse for Schumer, meetings among Democratic Senate chiefs of staff, which should be routine operational sessions, have reportedly become forums for airing discontent with Schumer’s stewardship. The pressure building in those rooms is aimed at a specific outcome: Schumer commits to retiring from the Senate when his seat is up for re-election in 2028, clearing a path for whoever comes next.

That next person may already have a name attached. Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii has been identified as Schumer’s own preferred successor. Apparently, Schumer has thought this through enough to have a pick. But Schatz isn’t moving until Schumer moves first. His posture, per senators and aides familiar with the discussions, is to wait it out. Schumer may have the votes to survive a mutiny for now. But his colleagues are doing the math, his fundraising is underperforming, his preferred candidates are generating internal blowback, and the party seems anxious to see him go. The caucus isn’t in open revolt yet, but it’s not looking good for Chuck Schumer.

Read more …

It’s global. Armstrong can’t explain it either.

• Russia to Refer Childless Women for Psychiatric Evaluations (Martin Armstrong)

Russia is now advising psychological counseling for women who do not intend to have children, which is precisely the type of response governments default to when they refuse to confront economic reality. They search for cultural or emotional explanations when the issue is economical. Russia’s fertility rate has fallen to roughly 1.4 children per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement level, and total births have declined to near post-Soviet lows at just over 1.2 million annually. This decline has been persistent, not cyclical, and the population is aging rapidly as deaths continue to exceed births. At the same time, the war has removed a significant portion of young men from the population.


The same pattern is unfolding across all developed economies. Europe’s fertility rate is now near 1.3. Spain and Italy are closer to 1.1. Germany is around 1.4. France, once the exception, has fallen sharply and recently recorded more deaths than births for the first time in decades. Japan has been below replacement for years and continues to contract. Even countries that implemented aggressive family subsidies, such as Norway and Hungary, have failed to reverse the trend.

Globally, fertility has collapsed from more than 5 children per woman in the 1960s to just above two today, and the developed world is already well below replacement. The common explanation offered by governments is psychological or social. They speak of changing values, delayed adulthood, or lifestyle preferences. That explanation collapses under scrutiny because it ignores the economic structure that determines behavior.

People do not make long-term commitments, such as having children, without confidence in their financial future. Children represent the largest long-term investment a household can make. When confidence declines, that investment is postponed or abandoned. At the same time, dual-income households became the norm not by choice but by necessity. A single income no longer supports a family in most developed economies. This fundamentally changes having children because both parents must remain in the workforce to maintain financial stability. Long ago, children helped to secure a family’s financial future, but the opposite rings true today.

Russia’s situation simply reflects these dynamics in a more concentrated form. Economic uncertainty, war, sanctions, and structural inefficiencies amplify the same forces present elsewhere. When surveys show that a large percentage of women do not plan to have children in the near term, that is not a psychological condition. It is a rational response to economic instability amid war. Women in Russia must now face the harsh reality that their husbands will face a compulsory draft, and they will be left raising children alone.

Historically, birth rates rise during periods of expansion and confidence. The post-World War II baby boom occurred because housing was affordable, employment was stable, and future prospects were positive. The economic structure supported family formation. Today, the structure works in the opposite direction. Housing costs, taxation, childcare expenses, and job insecurity create an environment in which the cost of raising children exceeds the perceived benefits. Governments attempt to offset this with subsidies, but those programs do not address the core issue, whixh is the declining return on productive activity relative to cost.

This is why policies focused on incentives have failed. Hungary introduced substantial financial benefits for families. Norway expanded welfare support. France has long provided family subsidies. None of these measures reversed the long-term decline because they do not change the underlying economic equation. The demographic consequences are significant. A declining birthrate leads to a shrinking workforce, increasing dependency ratios, and pressure on pension systems. Governments respond by raising taxes or increasing borrowing, which further reduces the net income available to working households. This creates a feedback loop that reinforces the decline.

When confidence in the future declines, long-term investments decline. Children are the most fundamental long-term investment in any society. The decline in birth rates is therefore not a social anomaly but a direct reflection of economic confidence. Russia proposing psychological counseling illustrates how far removed policy responses have become from reality. This is not a question of convincing people to want children. It is a question of creating an economic environment where having children is viable.

Read more …

Got to try.

• Rhinos back in African Park For First Time After 40 Years (RT)

Uganda has begun reintroducing rhinos to its Kidepo Valley National Park, marking the species’ return to the area 43 years after it was wiped out by poaching, the Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) has reported. The first two southern white rhinos were transported from Ziwa Rhino Sanctuary to Kidepo on Tuesday, part of a phased plan to relocate a total of eight animals, according to UWA. The effort is aimed at restoring a population that disappeared from the park in the early 1980s.


The move follows years of preparation, including the construction of a fenced sanctuary, ranger outposts, and monitoring systems to ensure the animals’ protection and adaptation to the new environment. The park, one of Uganda’s most intact savannah ecosystems, was identified as suitable after feasibility studies assessed habitat conditions and security. “This moment marks the beginning of a new rhino story for Kidepo Valley National Park,” UWA Executive Director James Musinguzi said, adding that the translocation was the first step toward re-establishing a population.

Officials said the animals will initially be kept under close observation inside a secure sanctuary before being gradually integrated into the wider park ecosystem.Rhinos once roamed widely across Kidepo Valley, but heavy poaching led to their local extinction, with the last recorded animal killed in 1983. Conservation efforts accelerated in 2005 with the launch of a breeding program at Ziwa Rhino Sanctuary, helping rebuild Uganda’s rhino population to more than 60. Authorities say the return of rhinos is expected to boost biodiversity and tourism while supporting efforts to restore endangered wildlife species in one of Africa’s most isolated national parks.

In January, UWA relocated four southern white rhinos from Ziwa sanctuary to Ajai Wildlife Reserve in northwestern Uganda and aims to move up to 20 rhinos to the reserve. Uganda’s move comes amid wider efforts across Africa to protect rhino populations. Separately, Kenya in December opened what it says is the world’s largest rhino sanctuary in Tsavo West National Park, bringing together around 200 black rhinos in a protected area of more than 3,200 square kilometers.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/HungaryBased/status/2035408598038405213?s=20 https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/2035350715695276059?s=20

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Debt Rattle March 5 2025

Mar 052025
 
 March 5, 2025  Posted by at 10:45 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  64 Responses »


Gustave Courbet The desperate man (self portrait) 1852

 

• Common Sense Revolution: Trump Outlines Sweeping Vision For Next 4 Years (JTN)
• Trump’s Big Speech Proves To Be Optics Nightmare For Democrats (JTN)
• Half of Democrat Voters Are Tired Of Far-Left Politics (ZH)
• Did Palantir Give Trump & Vance the Real Ukraine Intel? (Sp.)
• Musk Offers Zelensky To Give Up Power, Leave Ukraine (TASS)
• Zelensky Reverses Hardline Position On Peace Talks (RT)
• Musk Wants ‘Actions, Not Words’ From Zelensky (RT)
• Musk Says All Government Agencies ‘Cooperating With DOGE’ (ET)
• NATO Could Collapse Like a Balloon With a Slow Leak (Sp.)
• Reality Confronts The Euro Ruling-Strata (Alastair Crooke)
• Kaja Kallas Is Ill-Equipped To Take Stock Of EU Foreign Policy (Proud)
• Eating Crow (Stephen Karganovic)
• The Apocalyptic Trump Choice Facing The EU (Lukyanov)
• EU’s von der Leyen Unveils $840bn Rearmament Plan (RT)
• EU Spent More Money On Russian Energy Than Ukraine Aid Last Year (ZH)
• Sanctions Have To Go, Kremlin Tells Trump (ZH)
• Putin Agrees To Mediate US/Iran Nuke Talks After Trump Request (ZH)
• Government Advisor Warns UK is Heading For Civil War (MN)

 

 

 

 

FBI

Vance


https://twitter.com/i/status/1896754941575983386

Kari Lake

Fentanyl

Sachs
https://twitter.com/i/status/1896608908430672272

Sachs

Ursula

 

 

 

 

Common sense indeed. That’s all that’s needed. But the Democrats have lost it, and now they barely exist anymore. Watching bits of Trump’s speech last night, that’s what I was thinking: they’re gone, they’re around only in name. They took the knee to support BLM as it burnt down US cities unpunished. They insisted males must have access to girls’ dressing rooms. But countless Americans are (grand-) parents of young girls, and they want no part of that. Yesterday, their perhaps main point appeared to be that the world’s richest man is stealing granny’s pension and Medicare. Stick a fork in them and turn them over; they’re done. But that leaves Trump with no resistance; not sure that’s a good thing. And since we stopped last year with one Dem candidate who was too demented, followed by one who was too unpopular, it’s not clear at all what future they have, if any.

• Common Sense Revolution: Trump Outlines Sweeping Vision For Next 4 Years (JTN)

President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening delivered an optimistic speech outlining his vision for the next years, alternating between a pugilistic and jovial tone as he showed to Democrats that he would not back off of his core campaign promises and invited them to participate in his efforts to reshape the nation. “I return to this chamber tonight to report that America’s momentum is back. Our spirit is back. Our pride is back. Our confidence is back, and the American Dream is surging bigger and better than ever before,” he began. “The American dream is unstoppable, and our country is on the verge of a comeback, the likes of which the world has never witnessed and perhaps will never witness, again, never been anything like it.”

Focusing on a “common sense revolution” that he framed part as a global movement, he highlighted his early efforts to rebuild the American economy and declared that “among my very highest priorities is to rescue our economy and get dramatic and immediate relief to working families.” To that end, he pointed to his administration’s plan to reduce egg prices, bolster American energy production, encourage auto-manufacturing in the U.S., and revitalize the shipbuilding industry through a dedicated White House office. Though not technically a State of the Union address, the speech served a similar function and Trump used the opportunity to deliver a number of partisan blows to his opponents while attempting to win them over on key points.

“This is my fifth such speech to Congress, and once again, I look at the Democrats in front of me, and I realize there is absolutely nothing I can say to make them happy or to make them stand or smile or applaud, nothing I can do,” he said. “I could find a cure to the most devastating disease, a disease that would wipe out entire nations or announce the answers to the greatest economy in history, or the stoppage of crime to the lowest levels ever recorded. And these people sitting right here will not clap, will not stand, and certainly will not cheer for these astronomical achievements,” he went on. “So Democrats sitting before me for just this one night, why not join us in celebrating so many incredible wins for America, for the good of our nation, let’s work together and let’s truly make America great again.”

Prior to the speech, reports had suggested that Democrats would take a more subdued approach to protesting Trump’s remarks. But such reports were disproven as raucous jeering from the conference prompted repeated admonishment from House Speaker Mike Johnson, who ultimately ordered the removal of Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, from the chamber. The opposition’s frequent refusal to stand or applaud throughout the speech, moreover, attracted considerable online attention, especially as Trump highlighted the death of Laken Riley and the presence of a 13-year-old child with cancer. Riley’s death served as the keynote of Trump’s discussion on illegal immigration as the first law he signed upon returning to office bore her name.

“Last year, I told Laken’s grieving parents that we would ensure would not have died in vain. That’s why the very first bill I signed into law as your 47th president mandates the detention of all dangerous criminal aliens who threaten public safety, very strong, powerful act,” he said. Much of the speech saw Trump urge Congress to pass his legislative priorities, including a call for a balanced budget, making interest payments on car loans tax deductible if the vehicle was made in America, and banning child sex changes. Trump used much of speech to Congress to highlight his efforts to fight inflation, bolster energy production, and strengthen the U.S. economy, outlining his overall plan and touting his early accomplishments.

“Among my very highest priorities is to rescue our economy and get dramatic and immediate relief to working families. As you know, we inherited from the last administration an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare,” he declared. “Their policies drove up energy prices, pushed up grocery costs and drove the necessities of life out of reach for millions and millions of Americans, if not never had anything like it.” “We suffered the worst inflation in 48 years, but perhaps even in the history of our country, they’re not sure. As President, I’m fighting every day to reverse this damage and make America affordable again,” he declared. “Joe Biden especially let the price of eggs get out of control. The egg prices out of control, and we’re working hard to get it back down. Secretary, do a good job on that. You inherited a total mess from the previous administration.” Trump further pointed to his efforts to construct a national gas pipeline, encourage foreign investment, and to cut government waste.

Read more …

It’s very sad, too.

• Trump’s Big Speech Proves To Be Optics Nightmare For Democrats (JTN)

President Donald Trump’s joint address to Congress on Tuesday night proved to be an optics nightmare for Democrats as one of their own was booted from the House chamber by the sergeant at arms and social media lit up over liberal lawmakers’ refusal to stand for a boy with cancer being made a member of the Secret Service. House Speaker Mike Johnson had Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, removed from the House chamber during Trump’s joint address for disrupting the speech. Johnson banged the speaker’s gavel as Democrats disrupted Trump’s speech, before instructing them to follow decorum and ordering Green’s removal.

“Members are directed to uphold and maintain decorum in the House and to cease any further disruptions,” Johnson said. “That’s your warning. Members are engaging in willful and continuing breach of decorum, and the chair is prepared to direct the sergeant at arms to restore order to the joint session. Mr. Green, take your seat. Take your seat, sir. Take your seat. Finding that members continue to engage in willful and concerted disruption of proper decorum, the chair now directs the sergeant at arms to restore order. Remove this gentleman from the chamber.” Shortly after Johnson’s order to remove Green from the chamber, Trump said, “This is my fifth such speech to Congress, and once again, I look at the Democrats in front of me, and I realize there is absolutely nothing I can say to make them happy or to make them stand or smile or applaud, nothing I can do.

“I could find a cure to the most devastating disease, a disease that would wipe out entire nations or announce the answers to the greatest economy in history, or the stoppage of crime to the lowest levels ever recorded. And these people sitting right here will not clap, will not stand, and certainly will not cheer for these astronomical achievements. They won’t do it, no matter what — five times I’ve been up here, it’s very sad, and it just shouldn’t be this way,” he continued. “So Democrats sitting before me for just this one night, why not join us in celebrating so many incredible wins for America, for the good of our nation, let’s work together and let’s truly make America great again.” Trump also pointed out a 13-year-old boy in the gallery who is battling cancer and has been made an honorary police officer. The president said that he was making the child an agent of the Secret Service.

“Joining us in the gallery tonight is a young man who truly loves our police. His name is DJ Daniel, he is 13 years old, and he has always dreamed of becoming a police officer,” Trump said. “But in 2018, DJ was diagnosed with brain cancer, the doctors gave him five months at most to live. That was more than six years ago. Since that time, DJ and his dad have been on a quest to make his dream come true, and DJ has been sworn in as an honorary law enforcement officer, actually a number of times. The police love him, the police departments love him. “And tonight, DJ, we’re going to do you the biggest honor of them all. I am asking our new Secret Service Director, Sean Curran, to officially make you an agent of the United States Secret Service. Thank you, DJ. DJ’s doctors believe his cancer likely came from a chemical he was exposed to when he was younger. Since 1975, rates of child cancer have increased by more than 40%.”

Wile Republicans gave DJ a standing ovation, only about a dozen Democrats joined them. The rest sat without recognizing the boy. Former Arizona Assistant Attorney General Jennifer Wright (R) reacted to the Democrats’ reaction in post on X on Tuesday, writing, “The congressional democrats are horrible human beings. They couldn’t even stand to applaud newly sworn in Secret Service Agent DJ, a child battling cancer!!” A brief clip that Wright reposted on X showed the majority of Democrats remaining seated while Republicans gave DJ a standing ovation. During Trump’s address, some Democrats in the chamber held up circular black signs with white lettering that had statements such as “Protect Veterans,” “False,” “Save Medicaid,” and “Musk Steals.” Near the start of the speech, Democrats started booing Trump, before being drowned out by Republicans chanting, “USA!”

As Trump entered the House chamber for his address, Rep. Melanie Stansbury, D-N.M., held up a sign next to the president that read, “This is NOT Normal.” White House Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich posted a thread on X on Tuesday of several occasions in Trump’s speech that Democrats didn’t clap for.

Read more …

“..if the polls are correct then nearly half of Democrats are burnt out on the wacky Manson Family behavior of their activist counterparts..”

• Half of Democrat Voters Are Tired Of Far-Left Politics (ZH)

Can Democrats learn to admit when they’re wrong? It might depend on the variety of Democrat. Woke activists have proven time after time that they will double down on every incorrect position because they don’t care at all about being right; they only care about winning and destroying anyone who stands in their way. But this is psychopathic behavior that should be common only among the fringes of ideological debate. Are all Democrats woke and crazy, or do a lot of them go along with the extremist mob because they’re too afraid to speak against their own side? Or, perhaps a lot of people that lean to the left of the political spectrum have a habit of blindly following the lemmings in front of them, even if it means going off a cliff in the end.

Whether it was psychopathy, cowardice or trend chasing, millions of US voters thought it was a good idea to jump on the woke bandwagon and support authoritarianism, collectivism and moral relativism for at least a solid four years. No moderation was allowed. No nuance was discussed. No centrist ideals entertained. During the Biden Administration and the Kamala Harris campaign ESG, CRT, DEI, LGBT and Net Zero were the message and the madness. It was everywhere and there was no escape. Not surprisingly, the zealotry of the political left created massive blowback that they just could not comprehend. Using billions in government funds from agencies like USAID to saturate the culture with race communism and trans cultism did not help them in the long run. In fact, most of the population became fed up and angry. The Democratic Party fully embraced the woke militants and ended up alienating half of their own voter base.

After the Democratic Party’s well-publicized setbacks during the November elections, a recent national poll indicates 45% of Democrats want their party to go moderate and move away from the terminally woke. That’s up 11 points from 2021. Only 31% of respondents in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted last month had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, with 57% seeing the party in an unfavorable light. Polls also show that Democrats in congress hit an all-time-low approval rating last month as the party is finding it increasingly difficult to counter Donald Trump’s government accountability message. To oppose government audits suggests they have something to hide. Democrat politicians have come out publicly in recent weeks to admit that overt “wokeism” is ruining the party. Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, asserts:

“I think the Democrats’ brand is really bad, and I think this was an election based on culture. And the Democrats’ failure to connect on a cultural basis with a wide swath of Americans is hugely problematic…” “I think the majority of the party realizes that the ideological purity of some of the groups is a recipe for disaster and that, candidly, the attack on over-the-top wokeism was a valid attack.” In other words, Get Woke – Go Broke. It took several years and a severe beat down in the elections to draw out even a modicum of awareness from leftists and it’s unlikely that they will abandon identity politics in the near term. But, if the polls are correct then nearly half of Democrats are burnt out on the wacky Manson Family behavior of their activist counterparts. This means that without dramatic changes, the Dems will not be winning any elections anytime soon.

Read more …

“Palantir Turns Ukraine Into an AI War Lab.”

• Did Palantir Give Trump & Vance the Real Ukraine Intel? (Sp.)

While Volodymyr Zelensky brazenly questioned JD Vance’s knowledge of Ukraine in the White House slapdown, Donald Trump and his veep may have already exposed all his corrupt schemes. Time Magazine boasted that tech giant Palantir Technologies embedded its state-of-the-art analytics AI software into Ukraine’s government operations in June 2022. More than half a dozen Ukrainian agencies, including its Ministries of Defense, Digital Transformation, Economy, and Education, now rely on Palantir. The company has access to virtually all Ukraine’s data, from real-time satellite and drone footage to financial and economic records, according to the media. Beyond its military AI solutions, Palantir is also tasked with “rooting out corruption” in Ukraine – effectively making it the Zelensky regime’s invisible watchdog.

Founded in 2003, Palantir was backed by the CIA’s venture arm, In-Q-Tel, and worked on US-NATO operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. What’s more, billionaire Peter Thiel, Palantir’s co-founder, has been a loyal Trump ally since 2016. Thiel mentored JD Vance since 2011, backed his Narya Capital, and donated $10 million to his Senate campaign in 2021. With Palantir’s insider access, it likely holds intel on Ukraine’s corruption, misuse of US funds, forced conscriptions, and more – intel Thiel could have shared with Trump and Vance. Rumors suggest Palantir’s AI may have been used by Elon Musk’s DOGE team, hinting that Kiev’s schemes could already be exposed, much like USAID’s murky dealings.

Read more …

At least it makes sense. But I don’t have the feeling it’s his decision.

• Musk Offers Zelensky To Give Up Power, Leave Ukraine (TASS)

The leader of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, should resign and leave Ukraine, US entrepreneur and Head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Elon Musk said. “As distasteful as it is, Zelensky should be offered some kind of amnesty in a neutral country in exchange for a peaceful transition back to democracy in Ukraine,” Musk wrote on his X social media page. On February 28, Vladimir Zelensky visited the White House for a meeting with US President Donald Trump. Their televised exchange, with reporters present, devolved into a shouting match, with Trump reprimanding that Zelensky was ungrateful to the United States for the support provided to Kiev, and Vice President JD Vance pointing out that Zelensky showed a disrespectful attitude towards the US. The press conference following their meeting was canceled. Trump posted a statement on the Truth Social network asserting that Zelensky disrespected the US and displayed reluctance to seek a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict.

Read more …

He’ll say anything he’s told to say.

• Zelensky Reverses Hardline Position On Peace Talks (RT)

Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky has said that Kiev is ready to engage in peace negotiations with Russia, to be brokered by US President Donald Trump. The statement comes after the White House reportedly stopped all military aid to Kiev following a disastrous meeting in the Oval Office between the two leaders, for which US officials have demanded Zelensky apologize. Zelensky made a concession-filled post on X on Tuesday, saying his public feud with Trump in the Oval Office was “regrettable.” “We are ready to work fast to end the war,” Zelensky wrote. He has frequently said in the past that Ukraine would fight as long as necessary and that peace talks could only happen on Ukraine’s terms. He proposed the release of prisoners and establishing “truces” on both the air and sea fronts, echoing suggestions by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron in a meeting with him in London on Sunday.

The French-UK plan envisages a temporary, month-long “truce in the air, on the seas, and on energy infrastructure.” Moscow has repeatedly ruled out a temporary ceasefire with Kiev, insisting on a permanent, legally binding peace deal that addresses the root causes of the conflict. On Monday, Trump reportedly ordered a temporary halt to all US military aid to Ukraine, aiming to pressure Zelensky into negotiations to end the conflict with Russia. An unnamed senior administration official told Fox News that military assistance would stay suspended until the Ukrainian leadership demonstrates a genuine commitment to peace talks. “Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer,” Zelensky continued on X, offering his appreciation for Washington’s support. “My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts,” he added.

“’Ready’ is good, it is positive,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted to the statement. During the Friday meeting, Trump accused Zelensky of ingratitude and “gambling with World War III” by refusing to work towards a halt to hostilities. On Sunday, Zelensky told reporters that “an agreement to end the war is still very, very far away, and no one has started all these steps yet.” Trump condemned his statement on social media, promising that “America will not put up with it for much longer.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated Moscow’s readiness to resolve the Ukraine conflict through peaceful means. He emphasized Russia’s aim of establishing an international system that ensures a balanced and mutual consideration of interests, creating a long-term, indivisible European and global security framework.

Additionally, Zelensky highlighted his willingness to swiftly finalize a minerals deal with the US, viewing it as a step toward “toward greater security and solid security guarantees.” Trump has declined to provide specific promises on security, such as admitting Ukraine to NATO or contributing American troops to a future peacekeeping mission. He has also argued that Kiev’s ambition to join NATO was “probably the reason this whole thing started.” Moscow has welcomed Trump’s NATO comments, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying the US president is “the first and only” major Western leader to publicly name NATO expansion and Ukraine’s desire to join the bloc as a key cause of the ongoing conflict.

Read more …

“The Kremlin also said that Kiev must renounce its claims to Crimea and four other regions that have voted to become part of Russia.”

• Musk Wants ‘Actions, Not Words’ From Zelensky (RT)

Words alone would not be enough to restore trust in Kiev, Elon Musk has said in a response to Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky’s announcement that he was ready to sign a deal with the US on rare-earth minerals and agree to a ceasefire with Moscow. “Actions, not words, are what matter. Let’s see what actions take place,” the billionaire and top adviser to US President Donald Trump wrote on X on Tuesday. Zelensky had earlier expressed his regret that last Friday’s meeting in Washington “did not go the way it was supposed to.” The US and Ukraine were supposed to sign a rare-earths deal during Zelensky’s visit to the White House. The signing was abruptly canceled following a heated argument in the Oval Office, during which Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance accused Zelensky of not being grateful for American aid to Kiev.

Trump later claimed that his guest was acting disrespectfully and did not want to achieve peace with Russia. On Tuesday, Zelensky said that Kiev was ready to sign the minerals agreement at “any time and in any convenient format.” He stated that Ukraine was also ready for a prisoner exchange and a truce, with a “ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy, and other civilian infrastructure.” He thanked Trump, the US Congress, and the American people but stopped short of formally apologizing for the Friday incident. Following a shouting match in the White House, Trump told reporters that Zelensky would need to be ready for peace with Russia if he wanted to be welcomed back.

Fox News cited a senior US official on Monday as saying that Zelensky should issue a public apology if he wants to sign the minerals deal. Later reports said, however, that Trump was planning to announce the agreement during his address to Congress on Tuesday evening. Moscow welcomed Zelensky’s overtures as a “positive” development. “It is good that he [Zelensky] is ready [to go back to the talks with the US],” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalist Pavel Zarubin from the TV channel Rossiya-1 on Tuesday. Moscow has insisted that peace should be made on its terms, including the transformation of Ukraine into a neutral country. The Kremlin also said that Kiev must renounce its claims to Crimea and four other regions that have voted to become part of Russia.

Read more …

“I think that email perhaps was misinterpreted as a performance review, but, actually, it was a pulse check review…”

• Musk Says All Government Agencies ‘Cooperating With DOGE’ (ET)

Adviser to President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, said Saturday that some federal agencies will respond on behalf of employees to an email asking what federal workers did in the past week and that all agencies are cooperating with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which was created last month to cut waste, fraud, and excess spending. “All federal government departments are cooperating with DOGE,” he wrote. For the Departments of State, Defense Department, and “a few others, the supervisors are gathering the weekly accomplishments on behalf of individual contributors,” Musk wrote on his social media platform, X. Over the weekend, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) sent out a second round of emails to multiple agencies asking all federal employees to list five things they accomplished that week.

Earlier on Saturday, Musk said in a separate X post that responding to the email “is mandatory for the executive branch” and that “anyone working on classified or other sensitive matters is still required to respond if they receive the email, but can simply reply that their work is sensitive.” An email that was sent to Defense Department civilian employees, seen by The Epoch Times, provided guidance to the “what you did last week” email and said employees must respond to it within 48 hours. “A response to this email satisfies all OPM requirements for the past two weeks,” the email to Pentagon employees added. Musk, with Trump’s backing, has pressed for the emails as a means to hold workers accountable and as a “pulse check” to make sure all federal employees on the payroll actually exist.

The emails are part of broader efforts by Musk and DOGE to downsize the federal government and reduce spending. Musk and Trump have said that the organization is needed to find and eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse. Democratic lawmakers and labor unions have criticized DOGE, saying that widespread cuts could hamper crucial government functions and services. Musk and DOGE have been targeted by multiple lawsuits seeking to block them from accessing government systems and confidential data. The suits allege that Musk and DOGE are violating the Constitution by wielding the kind of vast power that only comes from agencies created through the Congress or appointments made with confirmation by the Senate. At the first Trump Cabinet meeting held last week, Musk explained the role that DOGE will play. He also addressed the mass emails that were sent to federal employees.

“I think that email perhaps was misinterpreted as a performance review, but, actually, it was a pulse check review,” Musk said, adding that “this is not a high bar.” “What we are trying to get to the bottom of is we think there are a number of people on the government payroll who are dead, which is probably why they can’t respond,” he said. Shortly before the first round of emails were sent out last month, Trump had called on Musk to “get more aggressive” with spending cuts and reform to the government. After they were sent out, Trump told reporters in the White House, alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, that those who do not answer the email are at risk of termination.

Musk is not a Cabinet-level official and has been listed as a presidential adviser to Trump with a special government employee status. The Trump administration has given conflicting statements on the exact role that Musk plays within DOGE or whether he actually heads it. In court papers last month, a senior White House official said that Musk is not in charge of DOGE, nor an employee of the department. Trump later said that Musk is effectively leading the organization.

Read more …

“NATO has been ‘unified’ for the past 40 years in letting the US foot the bill and supply the manpower for Europe’s defense..”

• NATO Could Collapse Like a Balloon With a Slow Leak (Sp.)

Former Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis earlier warned that the end of NATO could be “days away.” Before entering office, then-President-elect Donald Trump vowed to consider withdrawing the US from NATO. However, the US won’t leave the alliance abruptly, Come Carpentier de Gourdon, a geopolitical analyst and the convener of the editorial board of World Affairs journal, told Sputnik.The US may “gradually starve NATO of funds and other resources by repatriating most of the US personnel from bases in Europe, for instance,” which would prod European states to maintain the alliance at their costs, Gourdon said.

Washington may also push NATO members to raise their defense budgets to 5% which “would probably put an unacceptable burden on those states,” he went on. “In that situation, NATO would become moribund and many of its countries would look for alternative arrangements,” the analyst concluded. It looks like US President Donald Trump has decided NATO’s “free ride is over,” Michael Shannon, political commentator and Newsmax columnist, said in an interview with Sputnik. “NATO has been ‘unified’ for the past 40 years in letting the US foot the bill and supply the manpower for Europe’s defense,” he noted.

The alliance “can pay its fair share in troops, money and equipment or it can watch the US leave them to their feckless fate. US taxpayers get nothing from this arrangement while EU taxpayers get everything,” Shannon stressed. It’s unclear if the US will formally withdraw from NATO, but one can see “a major cutback in NATO spending and a drawdown of US manpower in the EU,” according to the analyst. “When that happens and the other NATO members fail to shoulder their own burden, I can see NATO slowly collapsing like a balloon with a slow leak,” the commentator pointed out.

Read more …

‘Through the tear in the fantasy bubble, they see their own demise..’

• Reality Confronts The Euro Ruling-Strata (Alastair Crooke)

They (the Euro-élites) don’t have a chance: “If Trump imposes this tariff [25%], the U.S. will be in a serious trade conflict with the EU”, the Norwegian Prime Minister threatens. And what if Brussels does retaliate? “They can try, but they can’t”, Trump responded. Von der Leyen has, however, already promised that she will retaliate. Nonetheless, the combined suite of the Anglo administrative forces is still unlikely to compel Trump to put U.S. military troops on the ground in Ukraine to protect European interests (and investments!). The reality is that every European NATO member – to varying degrees of self-embarrassment – admits publicly now that none of them want to participate in securing Ukraine without having U.S. military troops provide ‘backstop’ to those European forces.

This is a palpably obvious scheme to inveigle Trump into continuing the Ukraine war – as is Macron and Starmer’s dangling of the mineral deal to try to trick Trump to recommit to the Ukraine war. Trump plainly sees through these ploys. The fly in the ointment, however, is that Zelensky seemingly fears a ceasefire, more than he fears losing further ground on the battlefield. He too, seems to need the war to continue (to preserve continuing in power, possibly). Trump calling time on the Ukraine war that has been lost has seemingly caused European elites to enter some form of cognitive dissonance. Of course, it has been clear for some time that Ukraine would not retake its 1991 borders, nor force Russia into a negotiating position weak enough for the West to be able to dictate its own cessation terms. As Adam Collingwood writes:

“Trump has torn a huge rip in the interface layer of the fantasy bubble … the governing élite [in the wake of Trump’s pivot] can see not just an electoral setback, but rather a literal catastrophe. A defeat in war, with [Europe] left largely defenceless; a de-industrialising economy; crumbling public services and infrastructure; large fiscal deficits; stagnating living standards; social and ethnic disharmony – and a powerful populist insurgency led by enemies just as grave as Trump and Putin in the Manichean struggle against vestiges of liberal times – and strategically sandwiched between two leaders that both despise and disdain them …”. “In other words, through the tear in the fantasy bubble, Europe’s elites see their own demise …”. “Anybody who could see reality knew that things would only get worse on the war front from autumn 2023, but from their fantasy bubble, our élites couldn’t see it. Vladimir Putin, like the ‘Deplorables’ and ‘Gammons’ at home, was an atavistic daemon who would inevitably be slain on the inexorable march to liberal progressive utopia”.

Many in the Euro ruling-strata clearly are furious. Yet what can Britain or Germany actually do? It has quickly become clear that European states do not have the military capacity to intervene in Ukraine in any concerted manner. But more than anything, as Conor Gallagher points out, it is the European economy, circling the drain – largely as a result of the war against Russia – that is dragging reality to the forefront. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has shown himself to be the most implacable European leader advocating both military expansion and youth conscription – in what amounts to an European resistance model mounted to confront Trump’s pivot to Russia. Yet Merz’s winning CDU/CSU achieved only 28% of votes cast, whilst losing significant voter share. Hardly an outstanding mandate for confronting both Russia – and America – together!

“I am communicating closely with a lot of prime ministers, and heads of EU states and for me it is an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that we achieve independence from the U.S., step by step”, Friedrich Merz said. Second place in the German election was taken by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 20% of the national vote. The party was the top vote getter in the 25-45 year-old demographic. It supports good relations with Russia, an end to the Ukraine war, and it wants to work with Team Trump, too. Yet AfD absurdly is outcast under the ‘firewall rules’. As a ‘populist’ party with a strong youth vote, it becomes automatically relegated to the ‘wrong side’ of the EU firewall. Merz has already refused to share power with them, leaving the CDU as pig-in-the-middle, squeezed between the failing SPD, which lost the most voter share, and the AfD and Der Linke, another firewall outcast, which, like AfD, gained voter share, especially among the under-45s.

The rub here – and it is a big one – is that the AfD and the Left Party, Der Linke (8.8%), which was the top vote getter in the 18-24 demographic, are both anti-war. Together these two have more than one third of the votes in parliament – a blocking minority for many important votes, especially for constitutional changes. This will be a big headache for Merz, as Wolfgang Münchau explains: “For one thing, the new Chancellor had wanted to travel to the NATO summit this June, with a strong commitment to higher defence spending. And even though the Left Party and the AfD hate each other in every other respect, they agree that they won’t give Merz the money to strengthen the Bundeswehr. More important, though, is the fact that they won’t support a reform to the constitutional fiscal rules (the debt brake) that Merz and the SPD are desperate for”.

Read more …

“No one voted for Kallas to occupy her office in Brussels. While Zelensky has only been unelected since May of 2024, Kallas will only ever be an unelected apparatchik.”

• Kaja Kallas Is Ill-Equipped To Take Stock Of EU Foreign Policy (Proud)

Now that Zelensky has been battered by Trump and abandoned by Starmer, he can fall back of Europe’s leading diplomat, Kaja Kallas. God help us all. The earth is still shaking from President Trump and Vice President Vance’s tag team annihilation of Volodymir Zelensky at the White House. The 27 February meeting between Trump and Keir Starmer was a more convivial affair, with the British Prime Minister quiet on Ukraine while promoting the idea of much prized trade talks with America. That was the first signal of the UK getting real about its foreign policy disaster in Ukraine and recognising that it needs trade with America far more than it needs the huge cost of propping up an unwinnable war. This leaves Zelensky’s fate in the hands of the European Union. And with Kaja Kallas, the current EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the omens aren’t promising.

Kallas’ problem is threefold. First, she is not diplomatic. If the biggest foreign policy challenge in Kallas’ in-tray right now is the war in Ukraine, then her ingrained hatred of Russia makes her a singularly bad choice as Europe’s lead diplomat. Her worldview is carved out of her experience growing up in the Soviet Union the child of a woman who was deported to Siberia in 1949. She looks at Russia through a shattered lens of Estonia’s suffering during the so-called communist terror after the end of World War II. How she sees events in Ukraine today is simply a continuum of the folklore of her life. Russia is the hated enemy, and, at some point, Russia will return to conquer Estonia once more. In her statements before war in Ukraine started, Kallas reaffirmed her view that Estonia could be the next country that Russia invades. As a NATO country, I have never seen any evidence that Russia has a plan to do this.

Kallas has called for NATO troops to be deployed to Ukraine, to ensure Russia’s total defeat. She has suggested that Russia be broken up into a series of smaller states. She once implied that Ukraine should inflict more civilian casualties on Russian citizens, to balance the number of casualties in Ukraine. Even as President Trump has said that NATO membership for Ukraine is unrealistic, she has continued to push for this to be kept on the table, despite it having been a redline for Russia for nineteen years. Almost everything that she says is rooted in her unshakeable belief that defeating Russia is vital for the world to become a safer place. The world is full of extremists, of course. However, she claims to be the leading diplomat of Europe. She seems singularly ill-suited to that role. But will nonetheless still support Zelensky, I’m sure.

Which ushers in her second problem, the absence of a democratic mandate. Countries that are sceptical about the European project often express concerns about the lack of democratic accountability of EU institutions. No one voted for Kallas to occupy her office in Brussels. While Zelensky has only been unelected since May of 2024, Kallas will only ever be an unelected apparatchik.

Read more …

“You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

• Eating Crow (Stephen Karganovic)

For those unfamiliar with this colourful American idiom, “eating crow” means “to undergo the humiliation of having to retract a statement or admit an error.” It is a rough equivalent of the Biblical practice of putting on a sackcloth and covering oneself with ashes. Something of the sort has indeed happened with two major collective West narratives, the war in Ukraine and the “genocide” Xinjiang. The Ukraine narrative maintained that the conflict that started in February 2022 was an unprovoked act of “Russian aggression.” The equally bogus Xinjiang narrative rested on the groundless premise that the Chinese government was conducting an extermination campaign targeting the Uyghurs, a Turkic Muslim ethnicity, in its Northwestern province of Xinjiang.

Both assertions have now been debunked as completely false. That was accomplished in part by those who were aggressively promoting those narratives. The one misrepresenting the conflict in Ukraine imploded with a huge bang, whilst the Xinjiang genocide fabrication did so with a whimper. But it hardly matters; they are both effectively dead now. The key ground of the Russian aggression claim was debunked recently by its most prominent promoters. In pursuing dialogue with Russia as a means of settling the conflict in Ukraine, the new Trump administration, in the face of fierce vested interest and deep state resistance and however grudgingly, has finally made an important admission. It is that the operational premise of the hostility to Russia which at several junctures had brought the world to the brink of war was in fact false.

That is the plain meaning of President Donald Trump’s remark, addressed to the Ukrainian leadership with reference to responsibility for the war: “You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.” As if on cue, administration officials are also changing their tune. The President’s adviser and special envoy Steve Witkoff articulated Washington’s new position in no uncertain terms: “The war didn’t need to happen. It was provoked.” But who provoked it? The key takeaway from Witkoff’s remarks concerns the genesis of the conflict, although what he said may strike informed people as merely conceding the obvious: “It doesn’t necessarily mean it was provoked by the Russians. There were all kinds of conversations back then about Ukraine joining NATO. The president has spoken about this — that didn’t need to happen. It basically became a threat to the Russians, and so we have to deal with that fact.”

There is an immense difference between “unprovoked full scale aggression,” which was the party line until a few days ago, and the new position consisting of the explicit recognition that Russia’s military operation was provoked, because it occurred in response to a threat. The acid test of Trump administration’s commitment to the revised view of the conflict was the way it would vote in the UN on the resolution proposed by Ukraine, regurgitating the three-year “Russian unprovoked aggression” propaganda claims. Refreshingly, this time round the U.S. joined Russia to vote against it.

The lie concerning the Chinese “genocide” in Xinxiang has now also been laid bare and once more the truth has been affirmed by the most authoritative source, the original slanderers themselves.It should be recalled that Great Britain not only spearheaded the charge that China was committing genocide in Xinxiang but had also made its facilities available in 2021 to an NGO specifically set up for the purpose of conducting a kangaroo court trial in order to give the charge a veneer of legitimacy. The veneer was rather short lived, as it turned out, because Dr. Alena Douhan, the UN Human Rights Rapporteur, evidently intrigued by the Xinxiang genocide frenzy, actually took the trouble to go there and check for herself. In her findings she reported that no evidence of genocide was detected and asked that sanctions based on the unfounded allegation be removed.

Easier said than done because the Xinxiang controversy has nothing to do with verifiable human rights abuses, much less the crime of genocide, and everything to do with the Chinese province’s pivotal position on the Great Chessboard. Quite simply, as we had stated before, “Xinjiang happens to be the most convenient land route corridor which China’s Belt and Road Initiative must inevitably take if it is to be viable. Accordingly, make Xinjiang a sufficiently hazardous place and for all practical purposes B&R trade goes up in smoke. Chinese products cannot reach their foreign destinations, and neither can the products of foreign partners be reliably delivered to the Chinese market.”

Read more …

“They have pushed Washington to find a resolution to the Ukraine conflict that aligns with European interests. But the now-public rupture between Zelensky and Trump has stripped them of that opportunity..”

• The Apocalyptic Trump Choice Facing The EU (Lukyanov)

Friday night’s dramatic events at the White House, featuring Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, have placed Western Europe in an extremely difficult position. Many of the region’s leaders, who range from moderate to intense skeptics of US President Donald Trump, have nonetheless attempted to preserve the traditional transatlantic alliance. They have pushed Washington to find a resolution to the Ukraine conflict that aligns with European interests. But the now-public rupture between Zelensky and Trump has stripped them of that opportunity. Whether by design or by accident, Zelensky has forced the United States to clarify its stance: Washington is a mediator, not a combatant, and its priority is ending escalation, not taking sides.

This marks a stark departure from the previous position, in which the US led a Western coalition against Russia in defense of Ukraine. The message is clear – American support for Kiev is not a matter of principle but merely a tool in a broader geopolitical game. The EU has loudly declared that it will never abandon Ukraine. But in reality, it lacks the resources to replace the United States as Kiev’s primary backer. At the same time, reversing course is not so simple. The price of trying to defeat Russia is too high, and the economic toll too severe, but a sudden shift in policy would force Western European leaders to answer for their past decisions. In an EU already grappling with internal unrest, such a reversal would hand ammunition to the political opponents of the bloc’s leaders.

Another key reason Western Europe remains on this path is its post-Cold War reliance on moral arguments as a political tool – both internally and in its dealings with external partners. Unlike traditional powers, the EU is not a state. Where sovereign nations can pivot and adjust policies with relative ease, a bloc of more than two dozen countries inevitably gets bogged down in bureaucracy. Decisions are slow, coordination is imperfect, and mechanisms often fail to function as intended. For years, Brussels attempted to turn this structural weakness into an ideological strength. The EU, despite its complexity, was supposed to represent a new form of cooperative politics – a model for the world to follow. But it is now clear that this model has failed.

At best, it may survive within Western Europe’s culturally homogeneous core, though even that is uncertain. The world has moved on, and the inefficiencies remain. This makes the dream of an independent, self-sufficient “Europe” – one capable of acting without American oversight – an impossibility. Western Europe may attempt to endure the turbulence of another Trump presidency, just as it did during his first term. But this is not just about Trump. The shift in US policy is part of a deeper political realignment, one that ensures there will be no return to the golden age of the 1990s and early 2000s.

More importantly, Ukraine has become the catalyst for these changes. The EU does not have the luxury of waiting things out. Its leaders must decide – quickly – how to respond. Most likely, they will attempt to maintain the appearance of unity with Washington while adapting to new US policies. This will be painful, especially in economic terms. Unlike in the past, modern America acts solely in its own interests, with little regard for the needs of its European allies. One indicator of Western Europe’s shifting posture may be the upcoming visit of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to Washington. At present, Merz presents himself as a hardliner. But if history is any guide, he may soon shift positions, aligning more closely with Washington’s new direction.

Read more …

Maybe if they had a reserve currency…

• EU’s von der Leyen Unveils $840bn Rearmament Plan (RT)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed that member states spend about $840 billion on defense to strengthen their military self-sufficiency – an amount more than double total EU defense expenditure in 2024. In a statement on Tuesday, the EU chief cited the “most dangerous of times” and the “grave” threats facing the bloc as reasons to assume greater responsibility for its own security. “We are in an era of rearmament,” von der Leyen declared, adding that she had sent a letter outlining her ‘ReArm Europe Plan’ to member state leaders ahead of the European Council meeting later this week. “ReArm Europe could mobilize close to €800 billion ($840 billion) for a safe and resilient Europe,” she said. “This is a moment for Europe. And we are ready to step up.”

Official data shows the bloc’s total defense spending reached an estimated $344 billion last year, marking an increase of more than 30% since 2021. The new plan includes $158 billion in loans available to member states to invest in what von der Leyen described as “pan-European capability domains,” including air and missile defense, artillery systems, missiles and ammunition, drones, and anti-drone technology. It will also address other needs, from cybersecurity to military mobility. The proposed five-part strategy is also designed to address the “short-term urgency” of supporting Ukraine, the EU chief said. Von der Leyen did not specify a detailed timeline, but emphasized that defense spending must increase “urgently now but also over a longer period over this decade.” Her announcement came just hours after news agencies reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump had ordered a pause on military aid to Ukraine.

Trump has repeatedly accused Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky of refusing to negotiate peace with Russia and exploiting US support for his own gain. Following Zelensky’s public clash with Trump and US Vice President J.D. Vance on Friday, the US president said America would no longer tolerate the Ukrainian leader’s attitude. The EU has historically depended significantly on the US for its security, primarily through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). However, the Trump administration has recently signaled a major policy shift, urging European nations to take the lead in their own defense, as well as Kiev’s. Last month, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said that Washington intended to refocus its military priorities on countering China, warning the EU not to assume that American forces would remain in the region indefinitely.

Trump has previously warned that under his leadership the US would not defend NATO countries that fail to meet their financial commitments. He has floated the idea of raising mandatory defense spending by members to 5% of GDP, though none – including the US – currently meet that threshold. His push for increased defense spending has drawn mixed reactions, with some EU officials questioning its economic feasibility. European officials have occasionally raised concerns that Trump could pull the US out of the organization. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko recently warned that NATO appears to be preparing for war with Moscow, arguing that its current course poses a threat both to Russia and to overall security architecture.

Read more …

Trump talked about this report.

• EU Spent More Money On Russian Energy Than Ukraine Aid Last Year (ZH)

A new report reveals that the anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine EU – spent more money on Russian oil and gas in 2024 than they did on military aid to Ukraine. According to the report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the EU spent approximately $23 billion on Russian fossil fuels vs. $19.6 billion on military and financial aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, China purchased at least $82 billion of Russian energy, India spent $51 billion, and Turkey spent $36 billion. In total, Russia raked in $254 billion on energy exports. “Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Europe has made significant progress in terms of energy independence. Imports of Russian oil and gas have decreased substantially, with gas imports dropping from 45% in 2021 to 18% in 2024,” said EU MP Thomas Pellerin-Carlin in response to the report.

“However, a quarter of Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues still come from Europe,” he continued. And despite EU efforts to reduce Russian dependence, member nations spent 7 billion euros ($7.3 billion) on Russian natural gas in the third year of the Ukraine war – an increase of 9% vs. 2023. According to CREA, increased sanctions on Russia could reduce the Kremlin’s fossil fuel revenues by $51 billion euros ($53.3 billion). “Due to insufficient sanctions and loopholes, Russia has earned over 825 billion euros ($862.9 billion) from fossil fuel exports since the start of their invasion of Ukraine,” according to Isaac Levi, CREA’s Europe-Russia Energy policy analyst. As American Greatness’ Eric Lendrum notes further, Overall, Russia’s oil exports have decreased by just 8% since the start of the war in 2022, despite overwhelming condemnation and sanctions from most Western nations.

Since the war began in February of 2022, Russia has made nearly $1 trillion in oil exports alone. One major reason for Russian exports remaining strong is that, even after numerous sanctions, the average price of Russian oil is still cheaper than other sources such as the Middle East. Another reason why Europe has remained dependent on Russian energy is the anti-energy policies of the previous Biden Administration. After the start of the war, many European countries prepared to abandon Russian energy in favor of American exports. However, Biden’s White House soon banned liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the name of combatting so-called “global warming,” thus forcing Europe back to the Russian energy market. President Donald Trump rescinded the LNG export bans with an executive order on his first day back in office.

Read more …

“If the United States has really decided to suspend military aid to Ukraine, it may coerce the Kiev regime to engage in a peace process..”

• Sanctions Have To Go, Kremlin Tells Trump (ZH)

Russia has informed the Trump administration on Tuesday that any normalization of relations with the United States must be accompanied by the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Monday reports saying Trump has ordered options be drawn up to potentially give Russia sanctions relief amid ongoing direct talks to prepare for peace negotiations to end the Ukraine war. “It is probably too early to say anything. We have not heard any official statements, but in any case, our attitude towards sanctions is well known, we consider them illegal,” Peskov said. “And, of course, if we talk about normalizing bilateral relations, they need to be freed from this negative burden of so-called sanctions.”

Several waves of sanctions have been slapped on Russia both by the prior Biden administration and the European Union, targeting especially banking, energy, and defense sectors – as well as many measures against Putin and his top officials, as well as Russian oligarchs. Given the dramatic and rapid moves coming out of the White House, this moment could be the best opportunity for Russia to get its wish of sanctions relief, though this is less likely to come from the European side. Monday saw the White House announce a pause in all US defense aid to Ukraine, amid ongoing pressure to ensure Zelensky signs Trump’s controversial minerals deal. Putin’s office has of course responded favorable to this unexpected development, with Russian media reporting the following new words, per TASS:

“If the United States has really decided to suspend military aid to Ukraine, it may coerce the Kiev regime to engage in a peace process, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. …The order came into effect in the early hours of Tuesday. A Pentagon official told TASS that the US Armed Forces had suspended supplies of military aid to Ukraine. According to him, the move concerns all US military equipment that has not yet reached Ukraine, including weapons transported by aircraft and vessels or waiting to be shipped from transit zones in Poland. “Undoubtedly, we have yet to figure out the details but if it’s true, then this is a decision that really can push the Kiev regime towards a peace process,” the Russian presidential spokesman noted. ”

That decision came the same day Reuters reported “The White House has asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for US officials to discuss with Russian representatives in the coming days as part of the administration’s broad talks with Moscow on improving diplomatic and economic relations, the sources said.” These developments will likely accelerate the US-Russia talks and process of bettering ties, which could lead to actual economic cooperation down the line. Washington has also likely perceived by now that its anti-Russian sanctions have by and large not worked, or backfired. In many ways they have only strengthened Moscow’s relations and trade with leading BRICS nations like China and India, as well as Iran. Meanwhile, the below archived clip is subject of a lot of commentary this week, given where things now stand…

Read more …

Trump is fast.

• Putin Agrees To Mediate US/Iran Nuke Talks After Trump Request (ZH)

A very unexpected and unlikely development and plan is being widely reported Tuesday: Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to help the Trump White House broker talks with Iran on curtailing the country’s nuclear program. Trump reportedly relayed the request for Putin to play a direct role in new negotiations with Iran during their February phone call. The topic was further broached and more details were discussed during the US-Russia Riyadh talks which followed, reports Bloomberg on Tuesday. Neither the Iranian nor US governments have publicly commented on the Bloomberg report specifically, which was based on anonymous sourcing. But Russian state media did quickly acknowledge that Moscow stands ready to help the US and Iran resolve their issues through talks.

A TASS headline issued almost simultaneous to the Bloomberg report says as follows: “Moscow believes that Washington and Tehran should settle all their differences through talks and is ready to contribute to this, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Bloomberg. “Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations,” he said, adding that Moscow “is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this.” This response from Peskov appears to support the Bloomberg report. This response marks something unexpectedly positive given that both Russia and Iran are heavily sanctioned by the United States – measures put in place under the Biden administration. Biden officials had castigated the Iranians as part of the axis attacking Ukraine, given that Iranian-supplied suicide drones have been heavily relied upon by Russian forces throughout the more than three-year long conflict.

Iran has only offered very vague comments, with a foreign ministry spokesman saying Monday it is “natural” for countries to offer to help negotiations along in the cause of diplomacy. “It’s possible that many parties will show good will and readiness to help with various problems,” the spokesman stated. “From this perspective, it’s natural that countries will present an offer of help if it’s needed.” Previously Tehran leaders, including the Ayatollah himself, expressed that at this point it’s somewhat futile to engage in direct talks with Washington – given Iran in good faith entered into the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal with Obama, but then Trump unilaterally pulled out in 2018. The Ayatollah said in recent comments this means there’s no way to know if a future US administration will honor prior commitments and deals.

There’s also the greater complication of the standoff with Israel. Iran’s missile sites are at the ‘ready’ amid constant fears of an Israeli preemptive attack on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. Trump has been seen as giving Israel free reign to attack if it sees itself as under threat by Iran or its proxies in the region.

Read more …

It’s not just Britain.

• Government Advisor Warns UK is Heading For Civil War (MN)

A top academic and government advisor warns that the UK will experience a civil war within the next five years caused by the “destruction of legitimacy” brought about by the government’s failure to secure the border. Professor David Betz made the comments during a podcast appearance with journalist and author Louise Perry. Betz teaches at Kings College London and has advised or worked with the UK MOD and GCHQ as well as being a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The professor, who describes himself as a “classic member of the establishment,” told Perry that British society is now “explosively configured” to suffer mass unrest. He said the fallout began with the fracture of the social contract after the political establishment in the UK tried to subvert the Brexit vote.

Subsequent years have brought about a “destruction of legitimacy” as a result of successive governments’ open border policy and their inability to protect children from grooming gangs, in addition to a two-tier justice system presided over by a highly-politicised judiciary. “If you want to create domestic turmoil in a society, then what the British government has been doing is almost textbook exactly what you would do,” said the professor. Betz said that the situation is now “too far gone” and that a national eruption which will outstrip last summer’s riots is likely to happen within half a decade. Writing on his Substack, Paul Embery outlined some of the other arguments Betz made during the podcast that led the professor to make his fateful prediction.

“Betz contends that we now live in a deeply fractured nation and one that has much less connection to those aspects of its history which previously made it content and well governed. The nefarious activities of certain individuals and groups serve to exacerbate and magnify our divisions. So, can a society in which such realities are playing out be said to be destined for civil war? Well, here comes the interesting bit. Betz explains that highly-heterogenous societies (those comprised of many different social, cultural and ethnic groups) in which there is no single dominant cohort are not especially prone to civil war. That is because no group has enough power or status to co-ordinate a widespread revolt. Similarly, highly-homogenous, or ‘unfactionated’, societies are not particularly vulnerable on account of the fact that it is generally easy to arrive at consensus positions.

The danger area, Betz asserts, is in the middle – societies that are becoming more heterogenous and in which a previously dominant social majority fears that it is losing its place. In such societies, a nativist sentiment manifests in a narrative of what Betz calls ‘downgrading’ and ‘displacement’ – the most powerful causes of civil conflict. Throw in long-term structural economic decline and the apparent inability of the government to offer ‘bread and circuses’, and the sense of dispossession deepens. He also addressed the phenomenon of ‘asymmetric multiculturalism’ in which ‘in-group preference, ethnic pride, and group solidarity – notably in voting – are acceptable for all groups except whites, for whom such things are considered to represent supremacist attitudes that are anathematic to social order’. This ‘provides an argument for revolt on the part of the white majority (or large minority) that is rooted in stirring language of justice’.”

On the surface, the United Kingdom would seem like the least likely country to be susceptible to mass civil disorder, but thanks to years of societal malaise and mass immigration, it unfortunately feels like we’re on the brink of experiencing just that.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1896823198953726216

 

 

Measles
https://twitter.com/i/status/1896720120871002449

 

 

Scofield

 

 

Snoot rubs
https://twitter.com/i/status/1896681968177132008

 

 

Mama horse
https://twitter.com/i/status/1896971400591880684

 

 

Concrete wood

 

 

Lion

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Debt Rattle April 13 2021

Apr 132021
 
 April 13, 2021  Posted by at 9:02 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,  88 Responses »


Johannes Vermeer The Concert 1663
Stolen from Gardner Museum March 18 1990, the single largest art theft in the world. Never recovered

 

• Where Is the U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Headed? (FRBSF)
• Britain Sees World’s Sharpest Fall In Covid Cases (Nelson)
• Domestic Covid-19 Identity Documents Must Be Resisted (Craig Murray)
• Digital Proof Of Vaccination Will Come In The Second Half Of 2021 (SB.de)
• Apple and Google Block NHS Covid App Update Over Privacy Breaches (G.)
• India Opens Door To Sputnik V For More Than One Billion People (RT)
• AAP Helps Pediatricians Prepare To Vaccinate Children, Adolescents (AAP)
• Rollout Of Eye-Scan Test For Coronavirus Targeted By German Firm (R.)
• Forced Masking Is Behavioral Science, Not Medical (TH)
• Health Experts Are Telling Healthy People Not to Wear Face Masks (Time)
• Washington Mulls Digital Dollar, Sees Chinese e-Yuan As Potential Threat (RT)
• A Hundred Days of Joe (Jim Kunstler)
• Japan To Start Releasing Fukushima Water Into Sea In 2 Years (AP)
• Zuckerberg Group Gave Detroit $7.4 Million To ‘Dramatically’ Expand Vote (JTN)
• The Military Origins of Facebook (Whitney Webb)
• Media Relieved To Be Covering The Good Kind Of Riots Again (BBee)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central bankers discussing Covid is always a bit weird, but this from Daniel J. Wilson at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is quite interesting. Any fall in cases has been in the models for a long time. It’s unfortunate his models stop at June.

• Where Is the U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Headed? (FRBSF)

This Economic Letter describes an econometric model useful for forecasting COVID-19 infections at the county and national levels, detailed in Wilson (2021). I base my model on a standard SIR—susceptible-infectious-removed—epidemiological framework, using near real-time data on local mobility behavior, weather, and COVID-19 cases to date. This data-driven, econometric forecasting approach can be thought of as a hybrid between the two general approaches used in other COVID-19 forecasts: structural epidemiological models and nonstructural machine-learning approaches. I combine the basic structural SIR model with parameter estimation based on high-frequency, geographically granular data on transmission factors and COVID-19 cases. This econometric forecast, along with an array of forecasts using the other two approaches, is included in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 forecasting site.

The model forecasts a steady decline in infections through early June. Analyzing the contributing factors in the model indicates that population immunity acquired from prior infections is the primary driver of recent declines in infections and should continue to exert strong downward pressure on infections going forward. I base my forecasting model on a standard SIR epidemiological model of infectious disease spread (see, for example, Brauer, Castillo-Chavez, and Feng 2019). The SIR model posits that the growth rate of active infections for any infectious disease is determined by the current share of the population that is susceptible multiplied by the current transmission rate, which reflects how much the virus is passing from person to person.

Figure 1 shows the latest national forecast, based on data through March 27, 2021, along with the historical data to date. Active infections are predicted to fall steadily through early June. In particular, the forecast predicts a 71% decline for the 30-day-ahead horizon, equivalent to a drop from approximately 18 daily infections per 100,000 persons recorded as of March 27, 2021 to around 5 per 100,000.

One useful way to evaluate the reliability of these forecasts is to examine how well the model performs when using past data to predict actual infections, shown in Figure 2. The solid and dashed dark blue lines represent the same actual and forecast infections as shown in Figure 1. The other lines show previous forecasts based on data and the estimated model as of the start of each forecast period, indicated by the first dot for each series.

The forecasts have tended to be fairly accurate and have improved over time. Notably, the forecast based on data as of November 17, 2020 (red line), when infections were increasing rapidly, predicted a continued rapid climb for the next 40 days before hitting a peak and starting to decline. That forecast proved broadly accurate except that the actual peak occurred about 10 days later than the forecast predicted. The latest national forecast predicts a steady decline in active COVID-19 infections through early June. To assess what is driving this decline, I use my statistical model to “zero out” each factor’s contribution to the forecast; comparing the result to the full model forecast yields the impact of each factor, shown in Figure 3.


First, eliminating the temperature effect (gold line) yields a slightly slower predicted decline, suggesting that recent warmer temperatures are expected to lower infection rates going forward. Second, eliminating the mobility effect (green line) yields a slightly faster predicted decline, suggesting that increased mobility in recent weeks is slowing down the decline in infections. Third, eliminating the effect of vaccinations to date (red line) yields a modestly slower predicted decline, indicating that vaccinations are contributing to the forecasted decline. Yet, because the share of the population that has been fully vaccinated to date remains relatively modest, vaccinations are not the primary driver of the predicted decline in infections.

Read more …

Yes, vaccines work up to a point, their risk is that we don’t know the risk. And the downward trend is the same as that in the models in the first article.

What’s best about this article is the suggestion that Britain is doing well now BECAUSE they messed up so terribly before:

“..the severity of the spread in UK has left higher recovery immunity even in unvaccinated age groups (almost half of under-25s have antibodies)..”

• Britain Sees World’s Sharpest Fall In Covid Cases (Nelson)

At The Spectator’s data hub, updated daily, we keep track of the situation here and around the world. There have been several milestones recently: antibody levels hitting 55 per cent amongst the general population and above 85 per cent for pensioner-aged (who account for the vast majority Covid deaths). Vaccination is paying off: the below graph shows a breakdown by age group. The under-65s are in red.

The UK vaccine rollout has been in the world’s top five. And for all its recent troubles, AstraZeneca has shown in real-world tests to be every bit as effective as suggested in trials — as evidenced by antibody growth. This morning we added another table, seeing where Covid infections are relative to their peak. Britain is now 97 per cent below the peak hit before lockdown — the sharpest decline in the developed world. The below is a section of the G20 countries, but with fully-reopened Israel added in. As you can see, it’s right on our tail. Of course, under the Prime Minister’s roadmap, this won’t change the date ending lockdown: 21 June. But this perhaps gives ground for the reopening of hairdressers next week.


I’d personally advocate decriminalisation of all Covid rules at this point, downgrading the guidelines to ‘advice’ and trust people’s judgment a bit more. If every rule was abolished on Monday, I suspect it would take a long time for people to regain the confidence to resume normal life. Britain has had one of the worst Covid death tolls in the world: today’s success in driving down cases should be seen in that context. But the severity of the spread in UK has left higher recovery immunity even in unvaccinated age groups (almost half of under-25s have antibodies, according to the ONS) which limits the size of any third wave. UCL argues that we’ll hit herd immunity this week: we discuss this in the latest edition of The Spectator’s Coffee House Shots podcast. In general, Covid is back down to (or below) summer levels and almost all of those at risk of fatal infection have been protected.

Read more …

Murray appears to confuse himself a bit, saying it’s immoral not to get vaccinated, but we should never force anyone. But calling someone immoral is also a way of forcing, Craig.

• Domestic Covid-19 Identity Documents Must Be Resisted (Craig Murray)

Discrimination against people on the grounds of their health status is not acceptable, while the ever increasing reach of the surveillance state is pernicious. The idea of people without Covid-19 antibodies being treated as second class citizens should be anathema to anybody with concern for human liberty. It is improbable that Covid-19 will be eliminated from the world in the forseeable future. Like Spanish flu or Hong Kong flu, it will lurk around in the mix of seasonal infections for many years to come, hopefully, but not necessarily, like them becoming less severe through serial mutations. It appears likely that, as with flu, there may be a regular vaccination cycle.

Just now, England and Wales are in negative excess deaths. Less people are dying than normally do at this time of year, on a rolling average of the last five years. I presume Scotland will be similar, though I cannot immediately find current figures. The number of people dying within 28 days of a covid diagnosis is down to approximately 300 a week in the entire UK, and has been steadily falling. How much of this fall is due to vaccination and how much due to lockdown is an open question. But it remains a stubborn and undeniable fact, much as some people do not like it said, that Covid-19 has never been a major threat to young and healthy people. Older people and those in vulnerable groups have in very large majority been at least partially vaccinated now. The odds of those in the unnvaccinated groups dying of covid are really very low indeed.

A medical member of the UK government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Innoculation stated on BBC News on Friday that the risk of mortality to a healthy person under 30 who caught coronavirus was 117,000. He was explaining that this is such a remote risk, that it was almost as remote as the chances of a serious side effect from the Astra Zeneca vaccine, and that was why the use of that vaccine in that age group was being suspended; not that the vaccine was dangerous to this age group, but that they didn’t need it enough to justify even a miniscule risk. The point of vaccinating the healthy middle aged and under is not that Covid-19 is a serious risk of death to them; it is not. It is simply to break transmission.

Now I have had my first shot of vaccine myself, and urge everyone to take their vaccine. I have expressed before my view that I believe that refusing to be vaccinated is an immoral position; it is to benefit from herd immunity while refusing to accept the very small personal risk from the vaccine itself. But I utterly reject the notion of compulsory vaccination or of penalising those who do not wish to vaccinated by limiting their lives. Health is a personal matter, and discrimination on the basis of health status cannot be correct, nor the revelation of details of health status to people other than medical professionals employed in care.

Read more …

Google translate.

• Digital Proof Of Vaccination Will Come In The Second Half Of 2021 (SB.de)

According to the federal government, the digital vaccination certificate should be available by the beginning of the second half of 2021 at the latest. From 2022, the vaccination certificate will be part of the electronic patient record (ePA) in the telematics infrastructure, according to the Federal Government’s response to a request from the FDP parliamentary group. The digital vaccination certificate is an additional option for the yellow vaccination card to document vaccinations against Covid-19. In the future, users should also be able to save the information on their smartphones. The digital vaccination certificate includes a vaccination certificate app, a test app and a back-end system for integration in medical practices and vaccination centers.


The use of the digital vaccination certificate should be free of charge, the certificate should be created by the institutions authorized to vaccinate, such as vaccination centers, medical practices or hospitals. The necessary requirements for integrating a structured vaccination card are only available with the electronic patient record in version 2.0. This will be available as planned on January 1, 2022. Due to the technical dependencies and complexity, an early implementation is not possible. The whole is realized, among other things. from e IBM Deutschland GmbH. According to the current state of planning, costs of EUR 2.7 million are expected.

Read more …

If even Big Tech protests….

• Apple and Google Block NHS Covid App Update Over Privacy Breaches (G.)

Ministers have paused a planned update to the NHS Covid-19 app after Apple and Google blocked it from their stores over privacy violations. The app, which aids contact tracing in England and Wales, uses technology built by the Silicon Valley companies to track interactions between users with their bluetooth signals and venue “check-ins”. It was to have been updated on 8 April, in time for lockdown easing and the introduction of free rapid coronavirus testing for everyone in England. So far, it has allowed people to check into indoor places such as bars and restaurants by scanning a QR code before they enter, but the data was kept on the individual’s phone. Should a venue be identified as a potential virus hotspot, every device is then sent this data, allowing the app to crosscheck with the owner’s own log of locations and alert them if they might have been exposed.


A new version of the app was planned to automate the process further, instead asking users’ permission to upload their venue history if they test positive. The move, however, broke the rules set by Apple and Google when they built the contact-tracing technology last summer, leading both to prevent the government rolling out the new version of the app. When they released their technology for health services’ use, the companies stipulated that any apps would have to work in a “decentralised” way, avoiding privacy violations that could result from tracking the movements of an entire population and saving them in a centralised database. The plan to allow venue histories to be shared was supposed to be a way around such restrictions because it required active voluntary consent, was only triggered by users who already had a positive test and did not directly use the technology created by Apple and Google, called the Exposure Notification API.

Read more …

Large scale.

• India Opens Door To Sputnik V For More Than One Billion People (RT)

Reports say that India has given the go-ahead to begin immunizations with the Sputnik V Covid-19 jab, developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute. The world’s second most populous nation becomes the 60th state to approve the formula. On Monday, according to the national paper of record, the Times of India, authorities in the capital, New Delhi, granted Emergency Use Authorization to the Russian-made vaccine. The move comes after an expert committee met earlier this week and agreed to request more information from Hyderabad-based healthcare giant Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, a domestic pharmaceutical company licensed to test and manufacture Sputnik V under agreement with its Russian developers.


The country has seen a record-breaking spike in cases in recent weeks, with 168,912 positive tests recorded in the country on Sunday alone. Since the beginning of the pandemic last march, more than 170,000 people have died with the virus, according to government figures. The South Asian nation was home to 1.36 billion people as of 2019, and forecasts anticipate that it will overtake China as the world’s most populous country within the next five years. India has also been instrumental in the testing of a number of potential vaccine candidates, including British pharma company AstraZeneca’s formula. [..] Another 59 nations have already signed off on the use of Sputnik V, covering a total population of more than 1.5 billion people, many in developing countries. Mexico, Vietnam, Kenya and Hungary are among those already using the jab as part of national immunization programs.

Read more …

I can not wrap my head around injecting vulnerable (but not to Covid) small people with unknown substances.

“The right to refuse the vaccine begins at age 16..”

• AAP Helps Pediatricians Prepare To Vaccinate Children, Adolescents (AAP)

Pfizer has already requested an EUA for vaccinating children age 12-15, and it “could be available this summer.” For infants, toddlers, and children from 6 months to 11 years, “health officials have estimated vaccination in this age group could start in late 2021 or early 2022.” The right to refuse the vaccine begins at age 16, according to this article from the American Association of Pediatrics. As COVID-19 vaccines inch closer to becoming available for children and adolescents, the AAP is helping pediatricians prepare to administer them…


Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine is the only one available for teens as young as 16. However, each manufacturer has been studying its vaccines in adolescents as young as 12, and at least one could be available this summer… Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna also are conducting trials of their mRNA vaccines in children ages 6 months through 11 years. Health officials have estimated vaccination in this age group could start in late 2021 or early 2022… Adolescents who are at least 16 do not need special consent to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, but pediatricians should inform them about the FDA’s EUA, the potential risks and benefits, their option to accept or refuse and any available alternatives.

Read more …

We love QR codes, don’t we?

• Rollout Of Eye-Scan Test For Coronavirus Targeted By German Firm (R.)

A Munich-based company hopes to help usher in a new era of coronavirus testing with an eye scan that, it says, takes just three minutes to identify carriers of the disease and has a hit rate of 95%.Semic RF has developed its scanning app with colleagues in the United States and, pending regulatory approval, hopes to start rolling it out there by the end of next month, says its managing director, Wolfgang Gruber. It uses a photo of the eye taken with a smartphone, and identifies the virus by means of a symptomatic inflammation called “pink eye.” “We managed to isolate Covid-19 from over two million different shades of pink,” Gruber told Reuters.


He says the app, already tested on over 70,000 individuals, can process up to a million scans per second and the option to expand that capacity further – potentially allowing crowds back into mass-attendance events like concerts and football matches. “You take your app, take a picture of both eyes, send it for evaluation, and then you can have the evaluated result stored as a QR code on the tested person’s smartphone,” Gruber added. The app is initially being targeted at companies and commercial users, at a cost of 480 euros ($570) per month, with a later rollout to private individuals planned.

Read more …

“….And They’ve Been Playing Us The Whole Time…”

• Forced Masking Is Behavioral Science, Not Medical (TH)

Most people probably think of epidemiologists as simply doctors who specialize in contagious illness, but that would be only part of the story. Indeed, rather than studying and finding cures for diseases, arguably the most important component of the field is increasingly being viewed as something else entirely – the molding of public behavior. This explains why so many who go into epidemiology hold undergraduate degrees in public health, which focuses on the social and behavioral sciences, instead of the more hard-core sciency stuff studied by their medical doctor peers, like biology or biochemistry. So when epidemiologists like Dr. Anthony Fauci make pronouncements from on-high, one must always be aware of the motive behind their messaging – to get YOU to do what THEY tell you to do, purportedly in an effort to “stop the spread” of whatever contagion they are fighting.

Except, if you do a deep dive into the nature of most of the world’s response to today’s particular disease du jour, COVID-19, you’ll see that little of it ever had to do with actual science or data. Instead, the bulk of it has focused on implementing and forcing the public to comply with certain non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), like lockdowns and masking, settled upon early on in the pandemic. While discussing his epic bestseller “Faucian Bargain: The Most Powerful and Dangerous Bureaucrat in American History” with Fox News host Tucker Carlson, radio host Steve Deace described perhaps the most critical 11 days in recent U.S. history: “On February 28 of last year, Fauci wrote in the New England Journal of Medicine that when he analyzed the data for COVID-19, he thought it would be just about as bad as a pandemic-level flu,” said Deace.

“And then 11 days later, he went to Congress and told everybody that this was gonna be Captain Trips [the name for the ultra-deadly antigen that exterminates 99.4% of the human population in Stephen King’s “The Stand”], and that’s what shut the country down.” Citing the known case and infection fatality rates – at around 1.8 percent and .18 percent respectively – Deace described Fauci’s “original cautious and modest expectations” as having turned out to be true. “So why did he abandon those for the fear porn we’ve seen the past year?” he asked. “We must get answers to questions like that … What changed those 11 days, because it changed the fate of America.”

At one point during those 11 days, on March 8, Fauci also gave his now-infamous interview to “60 Minutes” in which he declared that the general public should not “be walking around with a mask.” The next month, of course, the CDC did a complete 180-degree reversal, and Fauci later attributed his earlier stand, which was based on sound science and is still provably correct a year later, to a ‘noble lie’ of sorts, that he was merely saving PPE for healthcare workers. Riiight. As if there wasn’t enough T-shirt material, bandanas, and neck gaiters to go around, or something. The ‘good’ doctor also hilariously claimed that the possibility of asymptomatic spread wasn’t “clear” in March, even though the news-following public, including myself, was well aware of the claim as early as January 2020.

Read more …

March 4, 2020. What happened since?

• Health Experts Are Telling Healthy People Not to Wear Face Masks (Time)

As the new coronavirus COVID-19 spreads in the U.S., people who are well want to stay that way. But since no vaccines are currently available, the strongest weapons Americans have are basic preventive measures like hand-washing and sanitizing surfaces, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The simplicity of those recommendations is likely unsettling to people anxious to do more to protect themselves, so it’s no surprise that face masks are in short supply—despite the CDC specifically not recommending them for healthy people trying to protect against COVID-19. “It seems kind of intuitively obvious that if you put something—whether it’s a scarf or a mask—in front of your nose and mouth, that will filter out some of these viruses that are floating around out there,” says Dr. William Schaffner, professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University.

The only problem: that’s not effective against respiratory illnesses like the flu and COVID-19. If it were, “the CDC would have recommended it years ago,” he says. “It doesn’t, because it makes science-based recommendations.” The science, according to the CDC, says that surgical masks won’t stop the wearer from inhaling small airborne particles, which can cause infection. Nor do these masks form a snug seal around the face. The CDC recommends surgical masks only for people who already show symptoms of coronavirus and must go outside, since wearing a mask can help prevent spreading the virus by protecting others nearby when you cough or sneeze. The agency also recommends these masks for caregivers of people infected with the virus.

The CDC also does not recommend N95 respirators—the tight-fitting masks designed to filter out 95% of particles from the air that you breathe—for use, except for health care workers. Doctors and health experts keep spreading the word. “Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!” tweeted Dr. Jerome Adams, the U.S. Surgeon General, on Feb. 29. “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!” [..] But people keep buying and wearing masks.

Some believe that wearing a mask reduces how many times they touch their nose and mouth, “but there aren’t any data to support that that’s a useful intervention,” Schaffner says. Other reasons are purely psychological. One stems from the fear of losing control to a virus we know little about preventing. “There’s not much we can do, so we’re all walking around feeling rather victimized by this virus,” says Schaffner. “By using a mask, even if it doesn’t do a lot, it moves the locus of control to you, away from the virus. It gives the individual a greater sense of control in this otherwise not-controlled situation.”

Read more …

With inbuilt expiry dates?

• Washington Mulls Digital Dollar, Sees Chinese e-Yuan As Potential Threat (RT)

Top US officials are reportedly calling for a hard look at China’s plans for a digital yuan, after raising concerns that the new currency may potentially challenge the greenback as the world’s dominant reserve currency. Officials at the Treasury, State Department, Pentagon, and National Security Council are currently trying to explore the potential implications of China’s new sovereign digital currency, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The presidential administration is reportedly not concerned about the immediate challenge the e-yuan might pose to regulatory frameworks and monetary systems. However, American officials are worried that the new Chinese currency may be used to bypass US sanctions. Moreover, the government officials would like to know how the digital yuan will be distributed.


Last year, the People’s Bank of China revealed plans to have its sovereign digital currency ready in time for the 2022 Winter Olympics. China became the first country in the world to test such a product on a national level. According to the Chinese central bank, the new currency will share some features with cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. The digital yuan is projected to replace banknotes and coins. The White House is said not to be planning any measures against the e-yuan, but is highly interested in creating a digital dollar. So far, members of Congress have reportedly asked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the issue in hearings earlier this year.

Read more …

“..perhaps nobody is in charge?”

• A Hundred Days of Joe (Jim Kunstler)

Is the Democratic Party determined to drive the nation insane? Kind of looks like that. They certainly seem bent on fomenting a race war. That would be insane, but the Democratic Party’s will to punish the nation eclipses all its other hopes, dreams, and aims — and that degree of sadism tends to indicate a mental health problem. Prior to 2020, they had already destroyed at least a dozen US cities via sheer mal-administration, and the George Floyd riots across the country successfully wrecked much of what bad governance plus the Coronavirus lockdowns had left behind.

Wouldn’t you think that things are already bad enough, for instance, in Minneapolis, what with the Derek Chauvin trial about to entertain the defense’s case, and the courthouse secured like Fort Apache? And so, a fresh incident occurred on Sunday involving one Duante Wright, 20, shot during a traffic stop. Apparently, there was a warrant out for Mr. Wright, meaning he was a suspect in a crime. When the police tried to detain him, he got back into his car against their clear instructions, raising the possible inference that he might be going for a gun. The officer shot him. A riot ensued, of course. In the chaos, some looting occurred. Black Lives Matter turned out in a matter of minutes, along with members of Duante Wright’s family. Is another martyr being manufactured?

What message do you suppose the Minneapolis city council sent last month when it settled $27-million on the family of George Floyd — before the trial in the matter even began? It looks more and more like a high stakes hustle: Whatever the truth is about an incident that involves the police, the city will burn and large cash settlements await. Calling personal injury attorney Ben Crump…. And so, the riot season has arrived, as if right on schedule. If Minneapolis and other cities start burning again, will Mr. Biden be positioned to ignore it as he’s ignored the now-lawless situation at the border? Will his managers wind him up to inveigh against “white supremacy?” Or have they set a dynamic feedback loop in motion that is fast running beyond their control — making it clear that perhaps nobody is in charge?

Read more …

@jonmitchell_jp writes in his new book POISONING THE PACIFIC about the human costs to US sailors of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.

• Japan To Start Releasing Fukushima Water Into Sea In 2 Years (AP)

Japan’s government decided Tuesday to start releasing treated radioactive water from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean in two years — an option fiercely opposed by fishermen, residents and Japan’s neighbors. The decision, long speculated but delayed for years due to safety concerns and protests, came at a meeting of Cabinet ministers who endorsed the ocean release as the best option. The accumulating water has been stored in tanks at the Fukushima Daiichi plant since 2011, when a massive earthquake and tsunami damaged its reactors and their cooling water became contaminated and began leaking. The plant’s storage capacity will be full late next year. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said ocean release was the most realistic option and that disposing the water is unavoidable for the decommissioning of the Fukushima plant, which is expected to take decades.


He also pledged the government would work to ensure the safety of the water and to prevent damaging rumors. The plant’s operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co., and government officials say tritium, which is not harmful in small amounts, cannot be removed from the water, but all other selected radionuclides can be reduced to levels allowed for release. Some scientists say the long-term impact on marine life from low-dose exposure to such large volumes of water is unknown. The government stresses the safety of the water by calling it “treated” not “radioactive” even though radionuclides can only be reduced to disposable levels, not to zero. The amount of radioactive materials that would remain in the water is also still unknown.

Read more …

“Such action is wrong, unlawful and dramatically undermined the integrity of the 2020 election. We must not let a shadow government run our elections to the benefit of favored candidates and political parties.”

• Zuckerberg Group Gave Detroit $7.4 Million To ‘Dramatically’ Expand Vote (JTN)

The Center for Tech and Civil Life (CTCL), a voter advocacy group funded by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, donated $7.4 million last year to Detroit to, among other things, “dramatically expand strategic voter education and outreach” in a blue city key to Joe Biden’s 2020 election win, according to memos obtained by Just the News under an open records request. Detroit received three grants in 2020 from CTCL for $200,000, $3,512,000, and $3,724,450, according to the records released under Michigan’s Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). The amount augmented by more than half the city’s $13 million election budget, and dwarfed it the $6.3 million in grants that CTCL gave five Wisconsin cities, a series of donations that has generated accusations that private money was wrongly used to influence state and local election judges and administrators.


The reach of Zuckerburg’s money has created a backlash in some GOP states like Georgia and Arizona, where lawmakers have moved since November to ban private money from being donated to election administrators. Phill Kline, head of the nonprofit Amistad Project, which has contested private financing of election administration in several states, said the Detroit memos show another instance in which Zuckerberg money was allowed to influence a key battleground during the 2020 election. “The records obtained in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan show the Zuckerberg monies were used to buy off government officials dictating the manner in which the election was conducted and using government to target Democrat strongholds to turn out the vote for Mr. Biden,” Kline said. “Such action is wrong, unlawful and dramatically undermined the integrity of the 2020 election. We must not let a shadow government run our elections to the benefit of favored candidates and political parties.”

Read more …

Two part article from Whitney. Must read.

• The Military Origins of Facebook (Whitney Webb)

A few months into Facebook’s launch, in June 2004, Facebook cofounders Mark Zuckerberg and Dustin Moskovitz brought Sean Parker onto Facebook’s executive team. Parker, previously known for cofounding Napster, later connected Facebook with its first outside investor, Peter Thiel. As discussed, Thiel, at that time, in coordination with the CIA, was actively trying to resurrect controversial DARPA programs that had been dismantled the previous year. Notably, Sean Parker, who became Facebook’s first president, also had a history with the CIA, which recruited him at the age of sixteen soon after he had been busted by the FBI for hacking corporate and military databases. Thanks to Parker, in September 2004, Thiel formally acquired $500,000 worth of Facebook shares and was added its board.

Parker maintained close ties to Facebook as well as to Thiel, with Parker being hired as a managing partner of Thiel’s Founders Fund in 2006. Thiel and Facebook cofounder Mosokvitz became involved outside of the social network long after Facebook’s rise to prominence, with Thiel’s Founder Fund becoming a significant investor in Moskovitz’s company Asana in 2012. Thiel’s longstanding symbiotic relationship with Facebook cofounders extends to his company Palantir, as the data that Facebook users make public invariably winds up in Palantir’s databases and helps drive the surveillance engine Palantir runs for a handful of US police departments, the military, and the intelligence community.

In the case of the Facebook–Cambridge Analytica data scandal, Palantir was also involved in utilizing Facebook data to benefit the 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign. Today, as recent arrests such as that of Daniel Baker have indicated, Facebook data is slated to help power the coming “war on domestic terror,” given that information shared on the platform is being used in “precrime” capture of US citizens, domestically. In light of this, it is worth dwelling on the point that Thiel’s exertions to resurrect the main aspects of TIA as his own private company coincided with his becoming the first outside investor in what was essentially the analogue of another DARPA program deeply intertwined with TIA.

Read more …

Only partly funny.

• Media Relieved To Be Covering The Good Kind Of Riots Again (BBee)

Media organizations across the country announced today they are relieved to be covering the good kind of riots again, now that people are looting Targets for justice again instead of protesting their government. “It was pretty rough there for a while,” said Rachel Maddow. “We had to cover the dark days of the violent insurrection. But now that people are stealing Nikes to protest racial injustice, we can return to feel-good reporting about the good riots that are happening.” “It’s just the Spring of Love around here!” she added happily.


Many journalists are calling this the shot of positivity the nation really needed in the aftermath of the worst days in our country’s history following the riot at the Capitol. Finally, they say, the nation has remembered what protests are for: stealing stuff and burning things down before any facts have come in. “I was pretty depressed having to cover the worst riots our nation has ever seen,” said Brian Stelter as he wiped tears from his eyes on his Sunday program. “We can finally get back to what the people want: puff pieces minimizing the violence and destruction wrought by protests that we agree with.” “But don’t worry — we will continue to watch Fox News and yell at it, just for you.”

Read more …

 

We try to run the Automatic Earth on donations. Since ad revenue has collapsed, you are now not just a reader, but an integral part of the process that builds this site. Thank you for your support.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in virustime. Click at the top of the sidebars to donate with Paypal and Patreon.

 

Debt Rattle April 20 2018

Apr 202018
 
 April 20, 2018  Posted by at 8:32 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , ,  12 Responses »


Daniel Garber The quarry 1917

 

• The World’s First Total Bubble (MB)
• Now Even a Fed Dove Homes in on the “Everything Bubble” (WS)
• Recession Risks Are Increasing – Axel Weber (CNBC)
• The Faster Tesla Makes Model 3’s, The More Money They Will Lose (SM)
• Marx Predicted Our Present Crisis – And Points The Way Out (Varoufakis)
• Market Power Wielded By US Tech Giants Concerns IMF Chief (G.)
• Bill Gates Backs Plan to Surveil the Entire Planet From Space (Gizmodo)
• Palantir Knows Everything About You (BW)
• Comey Memos Already Leaked To AP (ZH)
• US Sorghum Armada U-Turns At Sea After China Tariffs (R.)
• EU to Reject UK Brexit Plan for the Irish Border (BBG)
• Turkey Snap Election All About Power And A ‘Deteriorating’ Economy (CNBC)
• Brazil Prosecutor Recommends Denying Total Oil License Near Amazon (AFP)
• Cow Could Soon Be Largest Land Mammal Left Due To Human Activity (R.)

 

 

Australians think they won.

• The World’s First Total Bubble (MB)

The regulators, yes, they’ll have to be reformed. But it doesn’t stop there. They were just the elite enablers. The corruption at the heart of the great Australian property bubble seeped into our entire economy and culture. It oozed under every door, entered every home and visited every BBQ. It bent every business. It ruined our media and distorted our politics. It infected our entire place in the world, disenfranchised from the Australian dream entire generations. It has choked our cities. And sold out the national interest to Chinese speculators, threatening our very freedom. There has never been a more comprehensive bubble in any nation. We have been engulfed by it. The world’s first total bubble.

Yet at its heart was not a miracle but prosaic bank corruption. Only the failure to assess expenditures and incomes, the failure to report accurately and honestly, the failure to advise with integrity and responsbility made any of it possible. Everything else flows outward from this black singularity. Your wealth. Your lifestyle. Your retirement plan. The roof over your head not being over someone else’s. All of it stems from the core corruption of a banking system that disgorged massive sub-prime mortgages across our firmament. I really have no idea what attempted snow job we will see next. But it is over. It is now only a matter of time before the Australian housing supernova collapses towards the banking black hole at its centre, sucked back into the void from whence it came. We’re all the royal commission now.

Read more …

Brainard. Warning about what the Fed itself has built.

• Now Even a Fed Dove Homes in on the “Everything Bubble” (WS)

“If we have learned anything from the past, it is that we must be especially vigilant about the health of our financial system in good times, when potential vulnerabilities may be building,” explained Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard in a speech in Washington, D.C., this morning. This was a reference to a time-honored banker adage, now mostly forgotten after nearly nine years of easy money: Bad deals are made in good times. Brainard fills one of the seven slots on the Board of Governors. Two slots are filled by Chairman Jerome Powell and by Randal Quarles. Four slots remain vacant, waiting for Trump appointees to wend their way. She is a strong “dove” in the world of central banks, and she just pointed at why the Fed is tightening – and will continue to tighten: the Everything Bubble.

After rattling off a litany of indicators showing why and how the economy’s “cyclical conditions have been strengthening,” she added this gem, there being nothing like Fed-speak to make your day: “Currently, inflation appears to be well-anchored to the upside around our 2 percent target.” “Well-anchored to the upside” of the Fed’s target – and then she moved on to the “signs of financial imbalances.” “Financial imbalances,” in Fed speak, are asset bubbles, a phenomenon when prices are out of whack with economic reality. In a credit-based economy, assets are collateral for debt. And inflated asset prices put the financial system, meaning the lenders, at risk when those asset prices deflate. Since the Fed has to take care of the financial system, and since it blew up so wonderfully last time due to asset bubbles deflating, the Fed is right to be worried about it. At first the hawks, the rare ones; and now even the doves

Read more …

“Risks will begin materializing in 3 years ‘at the latest..'”

• Recession Risks Are Increasing – Axel Weber (CNBC)

The world economy is set for one of its best years since the global financial crisis, with both developed and emerging countries growing while inflation is still subdued and monetary conditions remain largely accommodative. But such a good run could end in the next two to three years, according to UBS Chairman Axel Weber. “We’re at the end of a long recovery and, two to three years from now, at the latest, some of the risks could materialize. The recession risks are increasing,” Weber told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche this week at the Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. The IMF this week kept its forecast for 2018’s global growth at 3.9 percent which, if it materializes, would be the fastest expansion since 2011.

But the agency warned that global debt levels have hit a record, and governments should start reducing their indebtedness and build buffers for “challenges that will unavoidably come in the future.” Financial institutions should also brace for such risks, said Weber, adding that he thinks banks have become better prepared compared to before the last crisis. Like many in the industry, Weber said he doesn’t think a full-fledged trade war will happen as a result of the ongoing dispute between the U.S. and China. But, he added that it’s time to reassess Beijing’s role in the World Trade Organization, especially given projections that China will one day become the world’s largest economy. Weber added that companies from around the world should be allowed to do business in China more freely.

Read more …

“..a “they will take over the world” and a “they will save the world” combination of hopes..”

• The Faster Tesla Makes Model 3’s, The More Money They Will Lose (SM)

A few weeks ago, we shared a note about Tesla from the hedge fund Vilas Capital Management. The firm, which is short the shares, said “Tesla is going to crash in the next 3-6 months.” I received an update from Vilas this morning explaining why they’re even more bearish on Tesla today. The firm pared its short positions after the recent selloff. And Telsa now comprises about 98% of their short book. Clearly Vilas thinks Tesla’s reckoning is imminent. You can read the rest of Vilas’ thoughts on Tesla below:

We added meaningfully to our Tesla position in the first quarter at prices in the $340 range. We continue to believe that Tesla is extremely overvalued and that it will experience significant financial difficulties over time. All companies in a capitalistic system need to earn profits and those profits need to be attractive relative to the amount of shareholder capital employed. Tesla has never earned an annual profit. Along with digital currencies and Unicorns, Tesla appears to be caught up in a gold-rush-fever type of emotional response, both from a “they will take over the world” and a “they will save the world” combination of hopes, instead of their owners looking at the numbers.

Tesla bulls will argue that their production will rise to 5000 Model 3’s per week soon and, therefore, the stock will trade meaningfully higher. Given that the company lost $20,000 per Model S and X sold for roughly $100,000 each last year, due to the fact that it cost more to build, sell, service, charge and maintain these cars than they collected in revenue, as it is important to include all costs when evaluating a business, we predict it will impossible for Tesla to make a profit on a $35,000 to $50,000 car. As anyone with automotive experience knows, profit margins are far higher on bigger, more expensive cars. Therefore, the faster Tesla makes Model 3’s, the more money they will lose.

Read more …

Das Kapital.

• Marx Predicted Our Present Crisis – And Points The Way Out (Varoufakis)

To see beyond the horizon is any manifesto’s ambition. But to succeed as Marx and Engels did in accurately describing an era that would arrive a century-and-a-half in the future, as well as to analyse the contradictions and choices we face today, is truly astounding. In the late 1840s, capitalism was foundering, local, fragmented and timid. And yet Marx and Engels took one long look at it and foresaw our globalised, financialised, iron-clad, all-singing-all-dancing capitalism. This was the creature that came into being after 1991, at the very same moment the establishment was proclaiming the death of Marxism and the end of history.

Of course, the predictive failure of The Communist Manifesto has long been exaggerated. I remember how even leftwing economists in the early 1970s challenged the pivotal manifesto prediction that capital would “nestle everywhere, settle everywhere, establish connexions everywhere”. Drawing upon the sad reality of what were then called third world countries, they argued that capital had lost its fizz well before expanding beyond its “metropolis” in Europe, America and Japan.

Empirically they were correct: European, US and Japanese multinational corporations operating in the “peripheries” of Africa, Asia and Latin America were confining themselves to the role of colonial resource extractors and failing to spread capitalism there. Instead of imbuing these countries with capitalist development (drawing “all, even the most barbarian, nations into civilisation”), they argued that foreign capital was reproducing the development of underdevelopment in the third world. It was as if the manifesto had placed too much faith in capital’s ability to spread into every nook and cranny. Most economists, including those sympathetic to Marx, doubted the manifesto’s prediction that “exploitation of the world-market” would give “a cosmopolitan character to production and consumption in every country”.

As it turned out, the manifesto was right, albeit belatedly. It would take the collapse of the Soviet Union and the insertion of two billion Chinese and Indian workers into the capitalist labour market for its prediction to be vindicated. Indeed, for capital to globalise fully, the regimes that pledged allegiance to the manifesto had first to be torn asunder. Has history ever procured a more delicious irony?

Read more …

Yeah, sure.

• Market Power Wielded By US Tech Giants Concerns IMF Chief (G.)

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has expressed concern about the market power wielded by the US technology giants and called for more competition to protect economies and individuals. Speaking at a press conference to mark the start of the IMF’s spring meeting in Washington, Lagarde said breaking up companies was not the solution, but added that her organisation was monitoring their impact on prosperity, financial stability and the workplace. “Competition is needed. From competition you get productivity growth and innovation. Too much concentration, too much market power in the hands of the few is not helpful to the economy or to the wellbeing of individuals.”

Pressure has been building in the US for antitrust laws to be used to break up some of the biggest companies, with Google, Facebook and Amazon all targeted by critics. Lagarde said: “I am not sure breaking up some of the tech titans in this country [the US] or in other countries will be the right answer. It used to be the right answer, but when most of the assets are intangible, how do you break them up? How do you facilitate access and allow market disruptors to operate? I think that is where a lot of new thinking has to be done.”

The IMF is carefully monitoring new digital currencies such as Bitcoin, which it says are prone to fraud and can be used for money laundering. “We have seen a flourishing of cryptocurrencies. There are now more than 100. That has stability implications eventually. We do not think it is systemic at this point in time but regulators and supervisors have to be watchful.” Lagarde expressed concern at the growing threat of a trade war between the US and China, saying that protectionism posed a threat to the upswing in the global economy and to an international system that had served countries well.

Read more …

Facebook is peanuts.

• Bill Gates Backs Plan to Surveil the Entire Planet From Space (Gizmodo)

EarthNow is a new company looking to provide satellite imagery and live video in virtually real-time. Its unsettling pitch describes a network of satellites that can see any corner of the globe and provide live video with a latency of about a second. And a look at the startup’s top investors gives a lot of confidence that this thing is happening. On Wednesday, EarthNow announced that it will emerge from the Intellectual Ventures ISF Incubator to become a full-scale commercial business. Its first round of investors is comprised of a small group of complimentary powerhouses: AirBus, the SoftBank Group, Bill Gates, and satellite-industry vet Greg Wyler.

The amount of the initial investment hasn’t been disclosed, but the announcement says the funding “focuses primarily on maturing the overall system design to deliver innovative and unique real-time Earth observation services.” That makes it sound like the company is in its very early stages, but don’t be so sure. Wyler’s OneWeb has already deployed highly advanced satellites with a blazing fast 130ms latency and its goal is to have a constellation of hundreds of satellites beaming broadband around the globe by 2020.

EarthNow will use an upgraded version of OneWeb’s technology with a lot of hardware power packed into a 500-pound unit. “Each satellite is equipped with an unprecedented amount of onboard processing power, including more CPU cores than all other commercial satellites combined,” the announcement says. The satellites will also do an onboard analysis of the live imagery using machine learning, but the company doesn’t go into detail about what it will analyze or why it would be necessary to dedicate that processing onboard.

Read more …

“Wall Street meets Apocalypse Now,..”

• Palantir Knows Everything About You (BW)

High above the Hudson River in downtown Jersey City, a former U.S. Secret Service agent named Peter Cavicchia III ran special ops for JPMorgan Chase & Co. His insider threat group—most large financial institutions have one—used computer algorithms to monitor the bank’s employees, ostensibly to protect against perfidious traders and other miscreants. Aided by as many as 120 “forward-deployed engineers” from the data mining company Palantir, which JPMorgan engaged in 2009, Cavicchia’s group vacuumed up emails and browser histories, GPS locations from company-issued smartphones, printer and download activity, and transcripts of digitally recorded phone conversations.

Palantir’s software aggregated, searched, sorted, and analyzed these records, surfacing keywords and patterns of behavior that Cavicchia’s team had flagged for potential abuse of corporate assets. Palantir’s algorithm, for example, alerted the insider threat team when an employee started badging into work later than usual, a sign of potential disgruntlement. That would trigger further scrutiny and possibly physical surveillance after hours by bank security personnel. Over time, however, Cavicchia himself went rogue. Former JPMorgan colleagues describe the environment as Wall Street meets Apocalypse Now, with Cavicchia as Colonel Kurtz, ensconced upriver in his office suite eight floors above the rest of the bank’s security team.

People in the department were shocked that no one from the bank or Palantir set any real limits. They darkly joked that Cavicchia was listening to their calls, reading their emails, watching them come and go. Some planted fake information in their communications to see if Cavicchia would mention it at meetings, which he did. It all ended when the bank’s senior executives learned that they, too, were being watched, and what began as a promising marriage of masters of big data and global finance descended into a spying scandal. The misadventure, which has never been reported, also marked an ominous turn for Palantir, one of the most richly valued startups in Silicon Valley. An intelligence platform designed for the global War on Terror was weaponized against ordinary Americans at home.

Read more …

It took less than an hour.

• Comey Memos Already Leaked To AP (ZH)

Update 3: President Trump is up late tonight, we suspect reading through former FBI Director Comey’s leaked memos as he exclaims: “James Comey Memos just out and show clearly that there was NO COLLUSION and NO OBSTRUCTION.” Trump is also quick to remind Americans of one of the reasons he fired him: “Also, he leaked classified information,” and ended with a jab at the endless farce: “WOW! Will the Witch Hunt continue?”

Update 2: Less than an hour after Comey’s memos were released by DOJ to Congress, the 15 pages have miraculously “become available” to The Associated Press. Given that no source is provided, we assume they were leaked with the intent to embarrass President Trump. Comey’s memos detail private dinner conversations with the President in January 2017, during which Trump asked him to pledge his loyalty. Another conversation about former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn is also detailed in the memos. In a memo dated Jan. 28, 2017, Comey recounted a dinner he had with Trump at the White House shortly after the president’s inauguration.

Trump asked Comey who he thought he should be in contact with in the administration, and Comey mentioned the national security adviser. The president said Flynn had “serious judgment issues,” Comey wrote in his memo. Trump then explained to Comey that when the president had complimented British Prime Minister Theresa May on being the first to congratulate him on his election, Flynn interjected that another leader had called first. That was the first time Trump learned of the other leader’s call, Comey wrote.

Read more …

Why is US farmland used to provide Chinese animal feed? Isn’t that perhaps what’s wrong with global trade?

• US Sorghum Armada U-Turns At Sea After China Tariffs (R.)

Several ships carrying cargoes of sorghum from the United States to China have changed course since Beijing slapped hefty anti-dumping deposits on U.S. imports of the grain, trade sources and a Reuters analysis of export and shipping data showed. Sorghum is a niche animal feed and a tiny slice of the billions of dollars in exports at stake in the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, which threatens to disrupt the flow of everything from steel to electronics. The supply-chain pain felt by sorghum suppliers on the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans underscores how quickly the mounting trade tensions between the U.S. and China can impact the global agricultural sector, which has been reeling from low commodity prices amid a global grains glut.

Twenty ships carrying over 1.2 million tonnes of U.S. sorghum are on the water, according to export inspections data from the USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service. Of the armada, valued at more than $216 million, at least five changed course within hours of China’s announcing tariffs on U.S. sorghum imports on Tuesday, Reuters shipping data showed. The five shipments, all headed for China when they were loaded at Texas Gulf Coast export terminals owned by grain merchants Cargill or Archer Daniels Midland would be liable for a hefty deposit to be paid on their value, which could make the loads unprofitable to deliver. Beijing, which is probing U.S. imports for damage to its domestic industry, announced Tuesday that grains handlers would have to put up a deposit of 178.6% of the value of the shipments.

Read more …

Thie red lines are far apart. Hard to see how they will resolve this.

• EU to Reject UK Brexit Plan for the Irish Border (BBG)

European Union officials are set to reject a potential U.K. solution to the crucial issue of what happens to the Irish border after Brexit, deepening the stalemate in negotiations. While the U.K. hasn’t made a formal proposal, it has indicated that the bloc’s “backstop” solution for maintaining an invisible border should apply to the whole of the U.K., according to three people familiar with the EU position. It would mean the whole U.K. stays in parts of the single market and customs union as a last resort to avoid a border on the island of Ireland. But the European Commission opposes it and only wants to offer that special status to Northern Ireland, according to the people, who declined to be named.

Finding a way to avoid customs checks on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit is proving the biggest obstacle for U.K. and EU negotiators trying to get a deal on Britain’s divorce from the bloc. While both sides agree that withdrawal treaty must include a “backstop” on Ireland in case a better option doesn’t emerge from the final trade deal, they can’t agree on what it should look like. As talks fail to yield solutions, pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Theresa May at home to backtrack on one her main Brexit pledges and keep the U.K. in the EU’s customs union after Brexit.

That would go a long way to solve the Irish border issue and would also please businesses that are keen on keeping cross-border trade easy. The Commission’s proposal would effectively cut Northern Ireland off from mainland Britain and May has said no British prime minister could accept that. In December, the two sides agreed on a backstop that would have applied to the whole of the U.K., rather than just Northern Ireland. The U.K. stands by that agreement, which also pledged that “no regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.”

Read more …

Remember: Jim Rickards predicted Turkish default recently. Erdogan may see it too.

• Turkey Snap Election All About Power And A ‘Deteriorating’ Economy (CNBC)

Turkey’s president surprised markets Wednesday by announcing that he would hold snap presidential and parliamentary elections in June with experts saying the move is a sign of both panic and genius. Recep Tayyip Erdogan said elections will be held on June 24, far earlier than previously expected, saying uncertainty over Turkey’s neighbor Syria, and macroeconomic imbalances, were a reason not to delay the vote originally scheduled for November 2019. He also said the country urgently needed to make the switch to an executive presidency, implementing changes to the Turkish constitution which give the president more power.

Fadi Hakura, Turkey analyst at Chatham House, told CNBC Thursday that the move was a sign of panic amid a deteriorating economy. “Erdogan’s calling of the election is a sign of panic and despair. Erdogan has previously viewed early elections as weakness and dishonorable to democracy, but now he’s panicking over the state of the Turkish economy,” Hakura said. “The very fact he’s called brought them forward by almost a year and a half should mitigate the fallout of a worsening economy on his popularity,” he said. [..] If Erdogan wins the election, as widely expected, he will be able to consolidate power following changes to the constitution which have changed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic, concentrating power in the hands of the president.

It will not be plain sailing for the president, however, with Turkey’s economy dealing with high inflation (at 10.2 percent) fueled by fiscal and monetary policies that have promoted rampant growth — the economy expanding 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the last reading available. The Turkish lira has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent months, reflecting wider fears on the prioritization of growth over inflation control, but the announcement of a snap election — and the likelihood that Erdogan will win – has calmed the currency somewhat.

Read more …

WIth Brazil as corrupt as it is, how long will this hold?

• Brazil Prosecutor Recommends Denying Total Oil License Near Amazon (AFP)

A Brazilian prosecutor warned of “ecocide” in recommending against a drilling license for French oil major Total close to a huge coral reef near the mouth of the Amazon River. The prosecutor’s office for Amapa state said “the only way to guarantee avoiding environmental damage to the area is to deny the license.” “Authorizing oil drilling activity without adequate studies violates the international obligations that Brazil has signed,” the prosecutor’s office said late Wednesday, warning of “large-scale environmental destruction that would amount to ecocide and a crime against humanity.”

The recommendation was sent to the government environmental agency Ibama, which has 10 days to respond. On Tuesday, environmental campaigners Greenpeace said that a previously discovered coral reef had been found to extend right into where Total plans to drill. The enormous reef was found in 2016, but is only now said to overlap directly with Total’s blocks, 75 miles (120 km) off the Brazilian coast, the group said. The finding, made during a research expedition, invalidates Total’s environmental impact assessment, which is based on the reefs being located at least five miles (eight kilometers) from drilling, Greenpeace said.

Read more …

People say it won’t be that bad, because elephants do well in protected parks. But isn’t that the problem? That the best we can do is build big zoos?

• Cow Could Soon Be Largest Land Mammal Left Due To Human Activity (R.)

The cow could be left as the biggest land mammal on Earth in a few centuries, according to a new study that examines the extinction of large mammals as humans spread around the world. The spread of hominims – early humans and related species such as Neanderthals – from Africa thousands of years ago coincided with the extinction of megafauna such as the mammoth, the sabre-toothed tiger and the glyptodon, an armadillo-like creature the size of a car. “There is a very clear pattern of size-biased extinction that follows the migration of hominims out of Africa,” the study’s lead author, Felisa Smith, of the University of New Mexico, said of the study published in the journal Science on Thursday..

Humans apparently targeted big species for meat, while smaller creatures such as rodents escaped, according the report, which examined trends over 125,000 years. In North America, for instance, the mean body mass of land-based mammals has shrunk to 7.6kg (17lb) from 98kg after humans arrived. If the trend continues “the largest mammal on Earth in a few hundred years may well be a domestic cow at about 900kg”, the researchers wrote. That would mean the loss of elephants, giraffes and hippos. In March, the world’s last male northern white rhino died in Kenya. [..] Smith said “my optimist hat would like to say that it’s not going to happen because we love elephants”. But she said populations of large land mammals were falling and “declining population is the trajectory to extinction”.

Read more …