Doc Robinson

 
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  • in reply to: Debt Rattle March 8 2021 #70793
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    The CDC admits that this change in policy is being made to get more people to accept the vaccine. They also admit the decison is a judgement call (not simply and strictly following “the science”), where benefits may (or may not) outweigh the risks.

    “Additionally, taking steps towards relaxing certain measures for vaccinated persons may help improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake.”

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 8 2021 #70792
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Increasing the pressure to get vaccinated:

    As of today, the CDC now says “Fully vaccinated people can visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing.” (This applies to non-healthcare settings.)

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 8 2021 #70788
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    My previous comment shows a graphic from that CDC report, with their summary that dumbs down the data and puts a different spin on it:

    “In counties where states required masks,
    case and death rates slowed.”

    “In counties where states allowed on-site restaurant dining,
    case and death rates sped up.’

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 8 2021 #70787
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 8 2021 #70786
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    • CDC: Face Masks Have Negligible Impact On Coronavirus Numbers (OAN)

    The CDC’s takeaway from that study was different.

    What are the implications for public health practice?
    Mask mandates and restricting any on-premises dining at restaurants can help limit community transmission of COVID-19 and reduce case and death growth rates. These findings can inform public policies to reduce community spread of COVID-19.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 8 2021 #70784
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    • Stay-at-Home Policy Is A Case Of Exception Fallacy (Nature)

    The study “found no evidence that the number of deaths/million is reduced by staying at home,” and suggested that “regional differences in treatment methods” (instead of lockdowns) may better explain the differences in death rates.

    Treatment methods such as prescribing ivermectin? (instead of proscribing ivermectin?)

    In conclusion, using this methodology and current data, in ~ 98% of the comparisons using 87 different regions of the world we found no evidence that the number of deaths/million is reduced by staying at home. Regional differences in treatment methods and the natural course of the virus may also be major factors in this pandemic, and further studies are necessary to better understand it.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84092-1

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 6 2021 #70680
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    That link from island raider (above) has a good critique of the ivermectin study published by the JAMA (March 4).

    Early treatment study, López-Medina et al., JAMA
    Effect of Ivermectin on Time to Resolution of Symptoms Among Adults With Mild COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial

    RCT low risk patients, 200 ivermectin and 198 control, showing lower mortality, lower disease progression, lower treatment escalation, and faster resolution of symptoms with treatment, without reaching statistical significance.

    With the low risk patient population, there is little room for improvement with an effective treatment… Less than 3% of all patients ever deteriorated.

    The primary outcome was changed mid-trial, it was originally clinical deterioration, which is more meaningful, and shows greater benefit. The new outcome of resolution of symptoms includes “not hospitalized and no limitation of activities” as a negative outcome and is not very meaningful in terms of assessing how much treatment reduces serious outcomes. Using this measure could completely invalidate results – for example a treatment that eliminates all COVID-19 symptoms but has a temporary minor adverse event could be seen as worse.

    Authors state that “preliminary reports of other randomized trials of ivermectin as treatment for COVID-19 with positive results have not yet been published in peer-reviewed journals”, however there was actually 8 peer-reviewed RCTs with positive effects published prior to this paper (and 19 total peer-reviewed studies with positive effects).

    Authors advised taking ivermectin on an empty stomach, reducing lung tissue concentration by ~2.5x.

    76 patients were excluded due to control patients receiving ivermectin. However, there was a similar percentage of adverse events like diarrhea, nausea, and abdominal pain in both treatment and control groups. These are potential non-serious side effects of treatment and suggest that it is possible that many more control patients received some kind of treatment.

    The study protocol specifically allows “the use of other treatments outside of clinical trials”. The paper provides no information on what other treatments were used, but other treatments were commonly used at the time, for example [2]. Additionally, the control group did about 5x better than anticipated for deterioration, also suggesting that the control patients used some kind of treatment. Patients which enroll in such a study may be more likely to learn about and use other treatments, especially since they do not know if they are receiving the study medication.

    Most data was collected via surveys, without physical examination.

    Grants and/or personal fees, including in some cases during the conduct of the study, were provided by Sanofi Pasteur, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Merck, and Gilead.

    87% medication adherence.

    https://c19ivermectin.com/

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 6 2021 #70669
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    • Ivermectin Does Not Alleviate Mild Covid-19 Symptoms – Study (NYT)

    Details of that study show that the ivermectin wasn’t taken by the patients until almost a week after the onset of symptoms. (The time from symptom onset to randomization was 4-6 days, median 5 days, plus perhaps another day before the ivermectin was dispensed.) Is this early enough to test the study’s hypothesis that “ivermectin would accelerate recovery in patients with COVID-19 when administered during the first days of infection.”

    The JAMA article has this published response with some excellent questions from Eric Osgood, MD:

    1. “Having received ivermectin within the previous 5 days,” was an exclusion criterion. The drug is used prophylactically monthly or every 2 weeks. Do we know if participants used it during a window outside the 5 days but recently enough where residual levels could have effects? If it does have benefit, couldn’t this explain why deterioration was so much rarer than anticipated based on the literature?

    2. What measures were taken to ensure the placebo arm did not receive active drug prior to 9/29/20? Shouldn’t all placebo subjects have had serum ivermectin levels drawn?

    3. Is “total symptom resolution” a validated metric?

    4. Why do authors propose initial clinical deterioration rate of 18% was not even close to being met, and only 3.5% in the placebo arm worsened by 2 points? Could an explanation be what I proposed in question 1? With a placebo arm doing this well, would a statistically significant benefit of experimental arm even be mathematically possible?

    5. Bioavailability of ivermectin is much greater if taken with a lipid-rich meal. Why were participants instructed to take it on an empty stomach?

    6. Why was there no virological assessment?

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777389

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 5 2021 #70653
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Updated stats on excess deaths in Europe were published yesterday.

    The most recent weekly excess deaths (from all causes) are not only below the corresponding data from 2019, they are below the baseline (less than zero) for every age grouping.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
    (choose Weekly instead of Cumulated)

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 5 2021 #70652
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    • Majority of Brits Say They Will “Miss” Some or Many Aspects of Lockdown

    One aspect of the British lockdown:
    Alcohol deaths rise sharply in England and Wales (BMJ, 05 March 2021)

    January-March, a 9.7% increase compared with 2019.
    April-June, a 17.7% increase compared with 2019.
    July-September, a 22.6% increase compared with 2019.

    The alcohol-specific death rate reached its highest peak since the data time series began in 2001

    Alcohol-specific deaths only include those health conditions where each death is a direct consequence of alcohol misuse (that is, wholly attributable causes such as alcoholic liver disease).

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/quarterlyalcoholspecificdeathsinenglandandwales/2001to2019registrationsandquarter1jantomartoquarter3julytosept2020provisionalregistrations

    in reply to: Covid Rattle March 4 2021 #70566
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    • New York Rolls Out ‘Covid Passport’ At Event Venues

    Besides the obvious flaw that the Covid vaccines aren’t known to stop transmission, it seems that the “passes” could be easily gamed at event venues and other places where everyone’s individual IDs aren’t scrutinized the way they are at airports.

    Sure, the QR code on the phone screen (or paper printout) may say you’re clear, but is that really your QR code (or could it be someone else’s)? Or are they scanning your face at the same time, to match your face with the name?

    It goes without saying that such methods of surveillance and control are ripe for abuse. At the very least, they can be used to selectively harass and detain certain individuals. “Your papers, please…”

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 3 2021 #70494
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Noirette: “Finland Had a Patent-Free COVID-19 Vaccine Nine Months Ago — But Still Went With Big Pharma.” (Why?)

    Thanks for that link, the article is illuminating. For example…


    In fact, the development of all first-generation COVID-19 shots has been straightforward.

    “The background research was finished in an afternoon, which then set the direction for all of them,” Saksela says. “Based on what we already know about SARS-1 and MERS, it was all quite obvious — not some triumph of science.” Instead of introducing an inactivated or weakened germ into the human body, the new coronavirus shots train our immune system to respond to a “spike protein” — in itself, harmless — which forms the characteristic protrusions on the virus’s surface.

    The widely shared understanding of this mechanism predates the pharmaceutical companies’ contributions. This raises questions about the impact of patent-driven research on the end product. To what extent is the work guided by medical efficacy, and how much is based on the need to retain proprietary ownership?

    “Different biotech firms would slap the spike protein onto some type of delivery mechanism, whether it was RNA technology or something else,” Saksela explains. “And typically, the choice is based on what applications they have a patent on, whether it’s the best option or not.”

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 2 2021 #70399
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Data On Long Covid In UK Children Is Cause For Concern, Scientists Say (G.)
    “Recently published data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has caused worry. The data suggest that 13% of under 11s and about 15% of 12- to 16-year-olds reported at least one symptom five weeks after a confirmed Covid-19 infection.”

    A recent letter in the British Medical Journal BMJ gives more context about these “long covid” symptoms, and points out the lack of a “comparator group” in that data. Some of the reported symptoms are in line with, or lower than, the prevalence in the general population.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) prevalence of 12.9% (primary school age) and 15% (secondary school age) of long covid are widely quoted. So how much should parents and their children worry, and does this worry warrant vaccination?

    The ONS figures need context. Our understanding is that they represent the proportion of children who—within five weeks of a positive covid-19 test—have one of the following symptoms: fatigue, cough, headache, loss of taste or smell, myalgia, sore throat, fever, shortness of breath, nausea or vomiting, diarrhoea, or abdominal pain. For some of these symptoms the ONS reported prevalence is as follows: fatigue 3.5%; cough 4%; headache 5.3%; loss of taste or smell 2%; myalgia 1.7%. These seem in line with or lower than the population prevalence—for example, cough reported in an unselected cohort of 7670 children aged 1-18, or headache and fatigue in children from a representative Finnish cohort. Given current high levels of family and community stress we would expect the prevalence of some of these symptoms to be higher.

    The prevalence estimates being discussed need a comparator group, and to be interpreted with much more caution, especially given the lack of a dedicated case definition for children. Specifically, we need to know how many survey participants (by age) without covid-19 had similar symptoms.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n520

    in reply to: Emergency vs Humanity #70382
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Re: the Australian narrative provided by ezlxa1949

    The FDA report I linked above is much more honest (about the vaccine) than that panel of cheerleaders assembled by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

    For example, the FDA report goes over the known and potential risks of the vaccine, and tries to assess whether the known and potential benefits outweigh these risks.

    “…based on the totality of scientific evidence available, it is reasonable to believe that the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine may be effective in preventing COVID-19 in individuals 16 years of age and older, and [do] the known and potential benefits of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine outweigh its known and potential risks for use in individuals 16 years of age and older.”

    The FDA’s advisory committee had to vote on these two questions. The winner of the vote was “Yes” but it wasn’t a slam dunk. Not everyone on the committee voted “Yes”.

    in reply to: Emergency vs Humanity #70379
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    The latest weekly data for Influenza in the US is showing the lowest possible minimal activity level in every state:
    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/main.html

    This seems unusual, since influenza activity often spikes around February (weeks 5-8):

    in reply to: Emergency vs Humanity #70377
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    For Europe, the aggregated data at this site shows the weekly excess deaths (from all causes) to be approaching zero, and excess deaths are are significantly below the 2019 deaths for all age categories (for Week 7, the most recent data).

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
    click on Weekly instead of Accumulated

    in reply to: Emergency vs Humanity #70376
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    The current “emergency” has not caused any more deaths than normal in the US during February, according to the CDC (even after they adjusted for the expected late reports). Excess deaths from all causes are down to ZERO (or less than zero) for February through the 13th (the most recent data):

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    in reply to: Emergency vs Humanity #70367
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    The FDA document I quoted above:

    FDA Briefing Document
    Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine

    https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

    By the way, I am not a medical doctor and have no medical training.

    in reply to: Emergency vs Humanity #70362
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    A comment I tried to post yesterday, in response to the story about Israel’s “Green Pass”:

    This vaccine “pass” “is valid for six months after a second dose.”
    Four shots per year per person? What a windfall for Big Pharma and its shareholders.
    Never mind all the still-questionable benefits and unknown risks of the Covid vaccines, according to the FDA:

    8.2. Unknown Benefits/Data Gaps
    Duration of protection
    Effectiveness in certain populations at high-risk of severe COVID-19
    Effectiveness in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2
    Effectiveness in pediatric populations
    Future vaccine effectiveness as influenced by characteristics of the pandemic, changes in the virus, and/or potential effects of co-infections
    Vaccine effectiveness against asymptomatic infection
    Vaccine effectiveness against long-term effects of COVID-19 disease
    Vaccine effectiveness against mortality
    Vaccine effectiveness against transmission of SARS-CoV-2

    8.4. Unknown Risks/Data Gaps
    Adverse reactions that are very uncommon or that require longer follow-up to be detected
    Vaccine-enhanced disease

    …However, risk of vaccine-enhanced disease over time, potentially associated with waning immunity, remains unknown and needs to be evaluated further in ongoing clinical trials and in observational studies that could be conducted following authorization and/or licensure.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 27 2021 #70252
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Expect more pressure in the coming months?


    ‘There’s a degree of mistrust’: a third of US military personnel refuse Covid vaccine

    “Reluctance to be vaccinated for Covid-19 is now rife in the US military, with about a third of troops on active duty or in the national guard refusing to be administered the vaccine… At the large Fort Bragg military base in North Carolina, acceptance rates for the vaccines are below 50%…”

    “Soldiers have previously been given approved vaccines on a mandatory basis but because the vaccines for the coronavirus have only been given an emergency use authorization by the Food and Drug Administration, members of the military are able to opt out…”

    “According to a CBS poll released on Friday, a quarter of Americans said they will not take the vaccine, with a further quarter only saying they would “maybe” get the jab.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/27/covid-coronavirus-us-military-vaccine

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 26 2021 #70221
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    HerrWerner: “She links to several sources and particularly calls out an mRNA rabies vaccine trial to support her case. No adverse events are noted in the study. This trial involved 101 participants and ended in 2017.”

    If that’s what she wrote, then she’s not a trustworthy source of information (for whatever reasons). No adverse events?

    Actually, 78% reported systemic adverse events in that trial.
    And 10% reported “Grade 3 events
    — which means the reaction is severe enough to cause hospitalization, and/or is disabling (but not immediately life threatening.)

    Safety and immunogenicity of a mRNA rabies vaccine in healthy adults: an open-label, non-randomised, prospective, first-in-human phase 1 clinical trial
    The Lancet, September 2017
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140673617316653

    …we enrolled and vaccinated 101 participants... 50 (78%) of 64 intradermally vaccinated participants and 29 (78%) of 37 intramuscularly vaccinated participants reported solicited systemic adverse events, including ten grade 3 events… intradermal or intramuscular needle-syringe injection was ineffective, with only one participant (who received 320 μg intradermally) showing a detectable immune response.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 26 2021 #70215
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Yesterday, Pfizer and Moderna got their Covid vaccine EUA reissued by the FDA, and the duration of the EUA can last until the emergency declaration is “terminated.”

    IV. Duration of Authorization
    This EUA will be effective until the declaration that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of the emergency use of drugs and biological products during the COVID-19 pandemic is terminated under Section 564(b)(2) of the Act or the EUA is revoked under Section 564(g) of the Act.

    https://www.fda.gov/media/144412/download
    https://www.fda.gov/media/144636/download

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 26 2021 #70214
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    In the US, the emergency declaration can be renewed. An EUA is in effect for one year, or shorter if the emergency declaration is no longer in effect. The EUA can be revoked if the criteria are no longer met (such as, the requirement that “there is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the product for diagnosing, preventing, or treating the disease or condition.”)


    Criteria for EUA Authorization—The FDA will issue an EUA if the FDA commissioner finds all of the following:

    The CBRN agent specified in the declaration of emergency can cause a serious or life-threatening disease or condition.
    Based on the scientific evidence available, it is reasonable to believe that the product may be effective in diagnosing, treating, or preventing the disease or condition specified in the declaration of emergency or caused by another medical product to diagnose, treat, or prevent a disease or condition caused by the specified agent.
    The known and potential benefits outweigh the known and potential risks of the product when used to diagnose, prevent, or treat the serious or life-threatening disease or condition that is the subject of the declaration.
    There is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the product for diagnosing, preventing, or treating the disease or condition.

    The EUA is in effect for one year from the date of issuance or for as long as the HHS secretary’s §564 emergency declaration is in effect, whichever is shorter. The emergency declaration can be renewed. The EUA can be amended and may be revoked earlier if the criteria for issuance are no longer met or revocation is appropriate to protect public health or safety.

    https://astho.org/Programs/Preparedness/Public-Health-Emergency-Law/Emergency-Use-Authorization-Toolkit/Section-564-of-the-Federal-Food,-Drug,-and-Cosmetic-Act-Fact-Sheet/

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 26 2021 #70212
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Q: …If states/countries now want to open up again, it would appear that they -legally- have to lift their State of Emergency. But then they can no longer allow people to be vaccinated with the vaccines, can they?

    In the US, a Determination of Public Health Emergency is used to justify the Emergency Use Authorization of some vaccines, but travel restrictions are not necessarily required during the Public Health Emergency.

    https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/02/07/2020-02496/determination-of-public-health-emergency
    https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/03/27/2020-06541/emergency-use-authorization-declaration

    If there is no Public Health Emergency, then there can be no Emergency Use Authorization, and the Covid vaccines could not be widely distributed until getting FDA approval after years of testing.

    Even if there is a Public Health Emergency, the Covid vaccines could not obtain Emergency Use Authorization if an effective treatment is acknowledged to be available.

    With a Public Health Emergency in place, the PREP act (Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act for Medical Countermeasures Against COVID-19) provides liability immunity to both public and private distribution channels for the vaccines, including those who prescribe, dispense, and administer the vaccines.

    “Liability immunity” means that the “covered person is immune from suit and liability under Federal and State law with respect to all claims for loss caused by, arising out of, relating to, or resulting from the administration or use of a covered countermeasure [such as a vaccine].”

    In addition, “to the extent that any State law that would otherwise prohibit the employees, contractors, or volunteers who are a “qualified person” from prescribing, dispensing, or administering COVID-19 vaccines or other Covered Countermeasures, such law is preempted.”

    https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/02/16/2021-03106/sixth-amendment-to-declaration-under-the-public-readiness-and-emergency-preparedness-act-for-medical

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 23 2021 #70130
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    “Brosh said that this does not mean the vaccine changes people’s genetic code. Rather, he said it is more like a USB device (the mRNA) that is inserted into a computer (your body). It does not impact the hard drive of the computer but runs a certain program.”

    So a USB thumb drive that’s put into your computer cannot have unintended and unforeseen consequences, like infecting and corrupting your hard drive?

    Dystopian novel idea:
    Vaccine “passports” that indicate that the holder has not received the faulty vaccines having whatever long-term effects that were discovered too late. This passport would be required before someone is allowed to procreate.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 21 2021 #70059
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    The excess deaths (from all causes) in the US has dropped below zero in the latest prediction from the CDC (for the week ending February 6.)

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 21 2021 #70057
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Across the country, 161,000 nursing home and other long-term care residents have died from Covid-19, an astonishing 36 percent of the total coronavirus deaths in the U.S.

    And over 80% of the total deaths from Covid-19 are in the 65-and-over age group (latest CDC data as of 2/17/2021)

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 19 2021 #69965
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    A recent study is critical of the CDC, and hints at how the CDC neglected to base some key Covid policy decisions on good data (the science was missing.) “CDC scientists and staff have authored a large number of studies on COVID-19; however, the majority are descriptive and provide low-quality evidence for policy and management decisions.“

    “The Missing Science: Epidemiological data gaps for COVID-19 policy in the United States”
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.11.21251602v1.full

    “Current guidance for COVID-19 community mitigations relies primarily on indirect evidence. For example, pre-symptomatic transmission, proximity, and an inability to mask are the facts used to justify restrictions on indoor dining in restaurants; [91] Such restrictions may well be protective; however, rigorous studies quantifying transmission risks for restaurant settings have not been undertaken.”

    “While several case series and outbreak investigations have highlighted potential hazards in “essential” and frontline work settings such as food production, no identified analytic studies quantified determinants of risks of transmission in workplace settings.”

    “CDC’s estimates of the infection-fatality ratios (IFR) based on studies in six European countries may not be generalizable to the US. County to country differences in the prevalence of vulnerability factors, medical care, and ascertainment of infection affect this parameter.”

    “To monitor disease burden, the CDC has routinely reported several measures of infection and disease incidence at the national and state level; however, these measures have limited geographical resolution. Each state has utilized its own distinct sets of state and regional indicators, [96] along with state-specific benchmarks, to guide control activities.”

    “A robust, national approach to monitoring COVID-19 in every region using multiple measures of disease incidence should be feasible.”

    “Disaggregating measures of infection and disease burden by community setting (e.g. residential setting, workplaces, neighborhoods) could further aide in targeting public health responses and focusing resources for testing, contact tracing and outbreak investigations.”

    “The US currently lacks regional estimates of the cumulative infection prevalence. Regional differences in prevalence could explain part of the variation in the pace of infectious spread.”


    Conclusions

    Twelve months after the identification of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the understanding of COVID-19 transmission, infection severity and disease burden has advanced, yet estimates of several essential epidemiological parameters remain absent or uncertain. Missing are comparative measures of transmission risk and disease burden for community exposure settings, including work in “essential occupations.” Estimates for infection fatality and infection hospitalization ratios representative of US settings do not exist. Indicators of disease burden, though available, have insufficient resolution to inform targeted policy and programmatic responses.

    These epidemiological data gaps may be limiting the most efficient and equitable response to the COVID-19 epidemic and underscore the importance of standardizing data collection priorities and protocols early during a rapidly emerging infectious disease epidemic. CDC scientists and staff have authored a large number of studies on COVID-19; however, the majority are descriptive and provide low-quality evidence for policy and management decisions. The content of their investigations raises questions about whether and how an explicit national research agenda guided CDC epidemiological endeavors.

    CDC scientists have the access to data, the expertise, and the resources to provide the data necessary for an optimal epidemic response. Moving forward, the CDC should now plan for how it might develop and implement a timely, strategic, and prioritized national epidemiological data collection and research agenda for the next emerging infectious disease epidemic.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 19 2021 #69953
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Regarding Sweden and the UK, the most recent estimate for “excess deaths” (Week 6, 2021) is showing significant excess for UK (England), and near-zero excess for Sweden.


    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 19 2021 #69947
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    “Saved this for last because I would like some comments.”
    “Even more than a year into all of this, we still don’t really know if vitamin D does anything for Covid-19 at all.”

    It’s a high bar, and a dual standard about what “we don’t really know.”

    This approach seems backwards:
    If “we don’t really know” how effective it is (but we do really know it’s safe), then it’s rejected.
    If we “sort of know” how effective it is (but we don’t really know about its long-term safety), then it’s recommended.

    For something that won’t make a lot of money for Big Pharma (Vitamin D, Ivermectin…), but having a track record of safety going back decades, it’s not recommended because “we don’t really know” exactly how effective it is. The research and track record shows it’s safe, but there are not enough studies to prove how effective it is.

    For something that will make a lot of money for Big Pharma (mRNA vaccines…), despite having no track record of safety (we really don’t know about the long-term effects), but with some bigger studies done to put a number on the effectiveness, then it’s recommended and pushed on the public.

    Below is another example where we don’t really know about the vaccine safety, but they are recommended anyway because “experts believe” that a substantial risk is “unlikely.”


    Miscarriage reports are not proof of Covid-19 vaccine danger to pregnancy

    “Based on how mRNA vaccines work, experts believe they are unlikely to pose a specific risk for people who are pregnant.”

    https://factcheck.afp.com/miscarriage-reports-are-not-proof-covid-19-vaccine-danger-pregnancy

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 18 2021 #69905
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    “Pandora opened that box… It’s enough to make a person pray for some kind of answer or help.”

    Reminds me that “Hope” (or expectation) was in Pandora’s jar of evils, as if Hope was one of the evils. Or maybe not. Prometheus not only gave fire to humanity, he gave hope.

    Prometheus – I stopped mortals from foreseeing their fate.
    Chorus – What kind of cure did you discover for this sickness?
    Prometheus – I established in them blind hopes.

    (from Prometheus Bound by Aeschylus)

    https://reasonandmeaning.com/2017/03/11/hope-and-pandoras-box/

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 18 2021 #69903
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    The latest Excess Mortality estimates for Europe (Week 6, 2021) are less than the corresponding 2019 numbers for all ages.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
    (click on “Weekly” instead of “Cumulated”)

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 16 2021 #69776
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    “We make this stuff so complicated”

    And expensive.
    30 ml (1 ounce) of the French water costs €14.90 (US$18)

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 16 2021 #69773
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    New French nasal spray eliminates 99% of Covid virus

    60% water plus 40% water equals 100% water.
    Not effective if you inhale some virus through your mouth.

    Spraying water up your nose is what a former commenter here was recommending early last year (I forget his name, Robin something?)

    From the article linked by Ilargi:

    Not a cure, but prevention

    The spray is not a treatment for Covid-19 but an extra barrier method…

    It can be used, for example, after returning home from going outside in public spaces, where you may have come into contact with many other people – such as using public transport or going shopping.

    After spraying it into your nose, you should blow your nose strongly, to get rid of any potentially-infected mucus; and carefully and securely dispose of any tissues used, to avoid spreading the virus.

    in reply to: Heal the Planet for Profit – Redux #69726
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Bill Gates on Bill Gates:

    “The world is not exactly lacking in rich men with big ideas about what other people should do, or who think technology can fix any problem. I own big houses and fly in private planes – in fact, I took one to Paris for the climate conference, so who am I to lecture anyone on the environment?”

    “It’s true that my carbon footprint is absurdly high. For a long time I have felt guilty about this… In 2020, I started buying sustainable jet fuel…”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/13/bill-gates-on-the-climate-crisis-i-cant-deny-being-a-rich-guy-with-an-opinion

    in reply to: Quo Vadis Media #69708
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    France Soir: Ivermectin is a victim of dishonest attacks

    From that article in France Soir, linked above by Polder Dweller (translated):

    So I went to the WHO database, Vigibase , which collects [suspected adverse effects] data from pharmacovigilance centers such as ANSM in France, from more than 130 countries. In 30 years, 175,208 adverse effects for Aspirin, 159,824 for Paracetamol and 4,614 for Ivermectin. On more than 4 billion doses prescribed over this period, this makes 0.0001%. Since the beginning of the year if we type Corminaty (Pfizzer vaccine) we have 65,188 declarations, against 46 for Ivermectin .

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 14 2021 #69680
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    I commented yesterday with links to UK data listing the reported reactions to the Covid vaccines, including (for the Pfizer vaccine) reports of blindness, deafness, paralysis, immune system disorders…

    A clarification for WES, I didn’t mention the number of reported deaths, but it’s listed in the data and article.
    “The MHRA received 107 reports of death after the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, 34 after the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, and 2 in which the brand of vaccine was unspecified.”

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 13 2021 #69666
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    The data for the reported reactions to the Covid vaccines in the UK (through Jan 31) were made public recently.
    Just a few of the many reactions listed just for the Pfizer vaccine:

    Deafness (12 reports)
    Blindness (5 reports)
    Blindness transient (2 reports)
    Vision blurred (126 reports)
    Immune system disorders (308 reports)
    Herpes zoster [shingles] (97 reports)
    Locked-in syndrome (1 report)
    Paralysis (15 reports)
    Abortion spontaneous (5 reports)
    Hallucination (38 reports)

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/960150/COVID-19_mRNA_Pfizer_BioNTech_vaccine_analysis_print.pdf
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions

    A related article in the British Medical Journal (BMJ):

    The UK’s medicines regulator has described the first safety data related to covid-19 vaccines as “reassuring,” with most side effects reported being mild and in line with those seen with other types of vaccine. “The benefits continue to far outweigh the risks,” said June Raine, chief executive of the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).
    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n363

    A response to that article, from a retired public health physician in England:

    Respectfully, I remind the CE, that she has barely a few weeks of Yellow Card Reports. These are early side-effects. How does she jump from the early reports to the assumption that there will not be any significant severe effects in the longer term?
    https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n363/rapid-responses

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 12 2021 #69606
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    By the way, the official number for the Total U.S. Government Gold Reserve is 261,498,926.241 troy ounces. Perhaps the three decimal place “accuracy” is meant to inspire confidence, but for me the effect is the opposite.

    1/1000 ounce of gold is 0.031 grams, a small flake.

    https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/gold-report/current.html

    in reply to: Debt Rattle February 12 2021 #69604
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    • The Only Way Out of the Death Trap (Rickards)
    “A rise in the price of gold from $1,900 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce is a massive devaluation of the dollar… FDR did this to perfection in 1933, and his actions began to dig us out of the Great Depression.”

    That would make gold investors like Rickards happy, but I don’t believe it would solve the problem. The US government under Roosevelt had more than twice the gold and less than 1% of the money supply it has now. The problem is much worse now.

    The M2 money supply rocketed from $55 Billion in 1940, to $19,400 Billion in 2021.

    The US Total Gold Reserves were 628.3 million troy ounces in 1940, but are now 261.5 million troy ounces (if not less).

    Dividing the M2 money supply dollars by the number of reserve ounces of gold gives $87 per ounce in 1940, and $72,000 per ounce in 2021.

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