Doc Robinson
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Another perspective…
The US stock markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq) fell further this past quarter than the FTSE 100 or the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell during the entire past year (or any year this past decade)..
“Some data from the articles: Dow, S&P down about 5-6% for the year, when in 2008 they lost 30-40%. Perspective. The FTSE 100 tumbled by 12.5% during 2018, The pan-European Stoxx 600 ended the year down 13%..”
Looking at the Q4 drops shows a somewhat different picture, with the American stock markets (S&P500, Nasdaq) falling more than the European (FTSE, STOXX).
“US Stocks Post Worst Year In A Decade, S&P Falls More Than 6% In 2018 (CNBC)”
Of course the sidebar for that CNBC article shows a trending article titled,
“Why 2019 could be very good for stocks, after the worst year in a decade”
with this quote from an equities strategist at a big bank:
“Based on fundamentals, I don’t think the pullback we had in this market was ever justified. Markets will do what they’ll do. I think you have significant upside here. Therefore, we would think that the bottom has been put in this market.”‘”Sometimes I think that if all my friends are leaving, why would I stay behind?”
Some friends are still here.Bellini’s John the Baptist looks more like a wilderness dweller than Caravaggio’s from two days ago. Yet, “The most ancient pictures represent him as meagre and wasted, with unshorn beard and hair. This would seem the true way; but often in later times he is made beautiful, and even dressed in rich mantles which cover the garment of camel’s hair.”
https://archive.org/details/handbookofchrist00waterich/page/158
Francisco Goya Witches’ Sabbath 1797-98
“Goya’s depictions of such scenes mocked what he saw as medieval fears exploited by the established order for political and capital gain.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witches%27_Sabbath_(Goya,_1798)Roofs of Paris 1886
Wondering how much more crowded that view would look today, I was surprised to find that the population of the city of Paris in 1886 was higher than it is now.
1886: 2.345 million
2018: 2.241 millionHowever, “the population of the surrounding suburbs is estimated to be around 10.5 million, which makes it the most populous urban area in the European Union.”
http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/paris-population/Picasso story
Somebody was saying to Picasso that he ought to make pictures of things the way they are — objective pictures. He mumbled he wasn’t quite sure what that would be. The person who was bullying him produced a photograph of his wife from his wallet and said, “There, you see, that is a picture of how she really is.” Picasso looked at it and said, “She is rather small, isn’t she? And flat?”
(attributed to Gregory Bateson)
“Remarkably, the house price-to-income ratio is lower in Germany today than it was in 1995, while in the UK it has nearly tripled over the same time period.”
That is eye-opening. More from that excellent OpenDemocracy article:
“So while German property owners have not benefited from skyrocketing house prices in the way that they have in Britain, the flipside is that German renters only spend 25% of their incomes on rent on average, while British renters spend 40%. The former is captured in the OECD’s measure of wealth, while the discounted value of the latter is not…”
“None of this means that Germany is poorer than Britain. Instead, it just reflects the fact that German capitalists and landowners have less bargaining power than they do in the UK, while [German] workers and tenants have more power. While lower shareholder returns and house prices are reflected in the OECD’s measure of wealth, better pay and conditions and lower rents are not.”
“The U.K. government is demanding action from the European Union (EU) amid strong frustration over the lack of proposals from Brussels on a post-Brexit relationship.”
After reading Article 50 this morning, I think the UK gov has a point. “… the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…”
Below is the text of Article 50 [from Investopedia]
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
Ilargi: “If people want a second vote, isn’t that democratic?”
Good question. The most recent polls I found are fairly evenly split for the UK overall, in contrast with polls for Northern Ireland and Scotland, which indicate a larger majority (more like 2 out of 3) wanting to remain in the EU. With so much local opposition, are Scotland and Northern Ireland being treated more like colonies, instead of the country/province that they supposedly are?
“Britons would vote 52 to 48 percent in favor of remaining in the European Union were there to be another Brexit referendum”
[Reuters, 27 Sept 2018]“Brexit support plummets in Northern Ireland as 69% back remain”
[Independent, 21 May 2018]“66% of Scottish voters (excluding don’t knows) support staying in the EU”
[The Guardian, 15 Aug 2018]“Time for a boycott. Demand labels that say whether glyphosate was used in crops.”
I agree. And no need to go hungry in the meantime, since (in the USA, at least) there currently is a food label that indicates that glyphosate was NOT used for the crop, and the food is non-GMO as well:
“100% Organic”V. Arnold
Yes, I wonder why five owls, and why are they joined with/ blended into the leaves. Also unmentioned in the quoted interpretation is the folklore associating owls with impending doom and death. Such symbolism appears in Shakespeare’s works..V. Arnold
René Magritte, Companions of fear, 1942For what it’s worth, a description and interpretation from Wahoo Art:
“The Companions of Fear original oil painting by René Magritte is among this surrealist painter’s most intriguing art works. Many of Magritte’s later oil paintings take the humorous edge: In this way The Companions of Fear is somewhat different – Humor ebbs toward the darker side of irony.
The Companions of Fear was produced in 1942. In 1926 Magritte produced his first surrealist oil painting. 1927 his first exhibition at Galerie le Centaure was crucified by the critics. He moved to Paris, was befriended by André Breton and so was involved with the Surrealist group. However, Magritte returned to Brussels in 1930 after making little impression within the Parisian art world. The Companion of Fear was produced as the German army took control of Belgium. In 1946 Magritte renounced the pessimism of his earlier works.
Magritte liked to challenge the viewer’s perception and encourage them to use their intuition. Owls symbolize wisdom. In many cultures they are believed to be able to see all things that are usually hidden – In the world of magic, dreams and clairvoyance. This oil painting depicts two Barn owls which are believed to ‘see without physical sight and hear what is not spoken.’ The other two birds are long eared owls with have remarkable hearing – Indeed, once again Magritte presents another intriguing hypothesis for the viewer.”Regarding comments being trashed, I don’t try to edit my comments after I post them here, because on two different occasions it resulted in the comment disappearing. I attribute it to some glitch that might be affecting others, too.
“Caring only about your own children while throwing the rest away with the bathwater is neither feasible nor viable. You’re bringing up children destined to fight and hate each other. For no reason that I can see at all. Do you enjoy the world of John McCain, where children were bombed for 50 years in two dozen or so countries? Or do you think that’s not such a good idea?”
“McCain could succeed only because his country, and the world around him, failed. Don’t set up your children, and all children, to fail in the same way he did.”
That was worth repeating. Thanks for posting it, Ilargi. Yet, however well reasoned and logical the arguments about the children, it seems unlikely for someone to “Love thy neighbor as thyself” (or “Love the neighbor’s children as one’s own) without some type of opening, or dropping of defenses, or heartbreak that we allow ourselves to feel, some recognition of connection at a deeper level.
With so many Christians (for example, as one religion of many) in the world, relatively few seem to allow themselves to understand and follow the “Love thy neighbor as thyself” commandment from the Old Testament, despite Jesus later clarifying this “greatest commandment” by using the Parable of the Good Samaritan (illustrating who can qualify as one’s neighbor). Other religions have similar teachings, of course.
I think that humanity needs to have a critical mass of those who “get it” and care enough to break the cycles of abuse and violence in our families and communities and countries. I think that essays like “Bathwater” are good reminders that can help with this.
The recently featured paintings of Étretat motivated me to learn more about that area, and I was please to see that the fields on top of those cliffs are still open space, without housing developments. Then I saw another photo, from a different angle, that showed a golf course up there.
V. Arnold,
Yes, I agree that training tends to be overrated. The best training I ever received wasn’t about art, but it applies to just about anything in life (including art, politics…), and can be summarized in two words: pay attention.
I’m late to Van Gogh’s party tonight, but despite the magical colors, it looks like a rather staid assemblage of people. Maybe that’s his point? The portrayal of the twinkling stars and the blue nighttime sky made me realize that the magic comes from what’s essentially a “long exposure”, letting in more light (and color and reflection) than we typically notice. (At least, that’s my off-the-cuff, untrained reaction.)
Thanks for posting it, Ilargi, much appreciated.
I didn’t know how to pronounce “yuan” and some family members told me it rhymed with the name “Juan”. I joked that maybe it rhymes with the name “Luann.” I then checked online and was surprised to hear that I was correct.
Reminds me of my favorite discussion about art:
Calvin:
A painting. Moving. Spiritually enriching. Sublime. …“High” art!
The comic strip. Vapid. Juvenile. Commercial hack work. …“Low” art.
A painting of a comic strip panel. Sophisticated irony. Philosophically challenging. …“High” art.Hobbes:
Suppose I draw a cartoon of a painting of a comic strip?Calvin:
Sophomoric, intellectually sterile. …“Low” art.from Calvin and Hobbes
by Bill Watterson“The balloon”… “I wonder where that place is…”
I suspect a mis-translation at some point, because that looks like a ball, not a balloon. “The scene takes place at the “Relais”, the property of Thadée Natanson, editor in chief of the Revue Blanche , and Misia Godebsta, his wife, in Villeneuve sur Yonne,” or so says the Google translation of the linked page, along with lots of analysis of the painting:
http://mieux-se-connaitre.com/2012/02/le-ballon-de-felix-valloton/My personal take is that a moving ball is being chased by a moving child who is in turn being “chased” by the moving shadows of the tree; all this in contrast to the immobile, staid adults in the background. A commentary on youth? I’ve often witnessed a similar scene involving a puppy and an older dog in the background.
“I saw something, of course can’t find it back, where a craft brewery…”
A great idea, with the packaging material being a by-product of the brewing process. They’re hoping to get the big brewers to do likewise.
Saltwater Brewery in Delray Beach, Florida, recently released edible six-pack rings, a brand-new approach to sustainable beer packaging. These six-pack rings are 100 percent biodegradable and edible—constructed of barley and wheat ribbons from the brewing process. This packaging can actually be safely eaten by animals that may come into contact with the refuse.
V. Arnold, my take on The Human Condition is that despite being part of nature, we can see ourselves (and our habitats, etc.) as being apart from nature, and we sometimes deal with mere representations of nature. That’s how it affects me, at least.
“They’re a bit naive.”
[Britannica .com]: Naïve art, also spelled naïf art, work of artists in sophisticated societies who lack or reject conventional expertise in the representation or depiction of real objects.
stephff cartoonist
Full-time professional political cartoonist living in Bangkok. Also painter . And primitive art and Thai khon masks collector
Tweets by stephffartV. Arnold,
One interpretation (with online translation attempt):
Tête noire, vers 1957-1959
Un des aspects philosophiques du projet de Giacometti : arriver à faire le portrait d’ « un homme fait de tout les hommes, qui les vaut tous et que vaut n’importe qui », selon le mot de Sartre en 1964. Ce plâtre peint de 1958 Grande tête illustre cette tentative sans cesse recommencée de fixer un réel en permanente mutation qui a animé l’artiste sa vie durant, aboutissant à une des plus hautes expressions de l’art du XXe siècle.(Definitions of fixer: verb, Déterminer de façon précise…)
Black head, circa 1957-1959
One of the philosophical aspects of Giacometti’s project: to paint a portrait of “a man who is all men, who is worthy of them all and who is worth anybody”, in the words of Sartre in 1964. This plaster painted with 1958 Great head illustrates this constantly renewed attempt to fix a permanently changing reality that animated the artist throughout his life, resulting in one of the highest expressions of 20th century art.(Definitions of fix: verb, Determine precisely…)
https://www.franceinter.fr/culture/alberto-giacometti-espace-tete-figure
Not seeing evidence of why the wife of an accused sex abuser shouldn’t be on the Nobel committee, as claimed by the three members who resigned in protest. Guilt by association?
If your slimy spouse cheats on you, then you’ve done something wrong? Spouses of American politicians and entertainment figures might be interested.
From a professor at the University of Edinburgh:
Chemical Attack in Douma: a false pretext for escalating war against Syria?
Chemical Attack in Douma: a false pretext for escalating war against Syria?Update to briefing note ‘Doubts about Novichoks’
Update to briefing note ‘Doubts about Novichoks’Key Points
There is no corroboration of Mirzayanov’s story of a secret Russian “Novichoks” programme to develop a new class of nerve agents, although the compounds described in his book in 2008 are real structures.
There is evidence that the US government has concealed what it knows about these compounds: specifically
A record in a public database showing that one of these compounds had been synthesized around 1998 by the US Army’s chemical defence lab (Edgewood) has been deleted
When the structures of these compounds were published in 2008 the US government sought to discourage discussions of the matter at OPCW and another international forum for chemical weapons prohibition.
The UK government has asserted that “No country bar Russia has combined capability, intent and motive” to carry out the Salisbury poisonings. Published studies show that these compounds can be synthesized at bench scale (sufficient for an assassination) in other countries. The UK government’s declared case therefore rests only on subjective judgements of “intent and motive”, which are open to question.
Re: Bitcoin taxes
The Florida ruling designated Bitcoin as “property” instead of currency (and money laundering laws thus didn’t apply to the case being tried). Capital gains tax laws still apply to sales of appreciated property, don’t they? There are some exceptions (like house sales under certain conditions), but generally if you buy some property (a painting, a classic car, a share in a company, a bitcoin), and you sell it later for more than what you paid, it seems like the government wants a slice of the pie, regardless of what property was sold (although they may turn a blind eye to car wash tokens and grocery coupons).
It gets messy, and this article from Investopedia attempts to spell it out, but they seem to make the mistake of assuming that Bitcoin’s value will only go up, resulting in capital gains (not losses):
“The IRS has made it mandatory to report bitcoin transactions of all kinds, no matter how small in value. Thus, every US taxpayer is required to keep a record of all buying, selling of, investing in, or using bitcoins to pay for goods or services (which the IRS considers bartering). Because bitcoins are being treated as assets, if you use bitcoins for simple transactions such as buying groceries at a supermarket you will incur a capital gains tax (either long-term or short-term depending on how long you have been holding the bitcoins).”
Are There Taxes On Bitcoins? By Kushal Agarwal, InvestopediaIndividually we cannot change the system. And we obviously can’t really “get away from it all”, not with radioactivity in the wind, mercury in the rain, and plastic (and other accumulating pollutants) in the seas… So, what to do with this life during our sojourn?
I think of our society (or body politic) as being like an ameoba, with individual people being like the molecules of protoplasm within its membrane. The direction the amoeba takes us depends on the overall effect of the churning protoplasm. We can individually be passive, and get pulled along regardless of our preferences. Or we can attempt to go in a certain direction, and if enough other individuals also attempt to go in the same direction, then that’s the way we’ll go. We’ll never know if we could make enough difference to change direction unless we are actually trying. If the direction doesn’t change today, keep trying, perhaps enough individuals will be trying tomorrow.
“While several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the mechanism of amoeboid movement, the exact mechanism is still unknown… Locomotion of an amoeba is thought to occur due to the sol-gel conversion of the protoplasm within its cell… Inside the amoeba, there are proteins that can be activated to convert the gel into the more liquid sol state.” –Wikipedia
Compared to conventional debt, it sounds like “Sovereign GDP-linked Bonds” have a similar risk for the banks, but a much bigger potential for reward to the banks.
With both types of debt, if the country’s GDP tanks, then the debt repayments decrease (in one case by necessity and another case by design). However, if the county’s GDP goes higher than expected, then it’s a windfall for the bank (at the expense of the country’s economy).
The article’s title is “How economies could insure themselves against the bad times”. A better title would be “How banks could extract even more from economies during good times”.
Re: “Five of the countries… Angola, Lebanon, Ghana, Chad and Bhutan – were spending more than a third of government revenues on servicing debts.”
What happened to Bhutan? High interest rates charged by outside investors, coupled with project delays and cost overruns. Three unfinished hydropower projects have racked up debts equivalent to 87% of the country’s GDP (and 77% of its total debt, as of July 2017). Costs for one of these ongoing projects have doubled over the past two years, while the costs for the other two projects have tripled, and the scheduled completion has been delayed more than five years. The annual interest rate that Bhutan is being charged on this debt: ten percent.
Re: Krill fishing
That Guardian article doesn’t mention the use of krill for fish farming aka aquaculture. “Most krill is used as aquaculture feed and fish bait; other uses include livestock or pet foods. Only a small percentage is prepared for human consumption.” [Wikipedia]
One pound of farmed fish (salmon, etc.) typically requires multiple pounds of krill and/or other wild-caught species to make the feed. Protein from soybeans, for example, can also be used, as done with beef, which results in a low-PROPI (protein returned on protein invested).
Ilargi, thank you for your service, and thanks for sharing. (That’s the concise version, totally sincere.)
I believe what we as individuals can do about entrenched problems comes down to who or what we are serving during our brief lives. Ilargi points out the flaws and ongoing shenanigans in the systems (increasing awareness of some readers more than others), but his service and sharing goes far beyond this. He found a way to “do what he can”, at an up-close-and-personal level, to reduce suffering in his European backyard. “Every penny goes where it belongs, nobody gets a salary.” Inspirational.
Re: “The rich could have gone on enjoying their privileges for a long time…”
The gross inequalities may continue past the expected breaking point. The US, Canada, W. Europe, et al. are still playing catch-up with Latin America and other regions, when it comes to inequality. Somehow it hasn’t been overturned there, yet.
V. Arnold said, “…I’ll not get involved with a system such as that. We’re fast outpacing our ability to deal with the complexities of western societies. With infrastructure failing all around us…”
The systems required for Bitcoin (et al.) seems far less “resilient” than those required for cash, checks, and credit cards (which were around long before high speed internet connections).
The border with Ireland shouldn’t be a deal-breaker. Canada and the US don’t have an “open border”, yet somehow they manage when the border goes through towns and even buildings.
“There are 15 official border crossings along Vermont’s boundary, averaging out to one every six miles.”
“[In] the community of Derby Line, Vermont/Stanstead, Quebec… a large Victorian house is divided by the boundary.”
“[Also] bisected by the line is the Haskell Library and Opera House, intentionally built on the line by its benefactors in 1904, to celebrate the friendship between the two countries. The line hits the east side of the building obliquely, where two separate fire escapes had to be built, one in the US, and one for Canada. Many such redundancies and building code complexities have to be tolerated by the building managers. After repairing the roof a few years ago, the building’s owners were sued for not hiring a Canadian contractor to work on the Canadian portion of the roof.”
Re: “It now requires ever increasing levels of debt to create each $1 of economic growth… It now requires nearly $4.00 of debt for each $1.00 of economic growth.”
There’s some hocus-pocus going on. Debt (an account balance expressed in dollars), when divided by GDP (a periodic production expressed in dollars per unit of time, typically per year) actually results in a number with the units of time, not a percentage. If it’s shown as a percentage, as in this article, the correct implication is that it’s a percentage of a full year.
Thus, a Debt/GDP ratio of 4.00 means that it would hypothetically take 4.00 years of the full production value to pay off the debt (in other words, 400% of the specific year’s production value). This does not mean that $4.00 is required “for each $1.00 of economic growth”, as claimed. Growth isn’t even part of the picture being considered at this point!
For conclusions about growth, we’d obviously have to examine the changes in GDP, but this just appears as an “ornamental” blue line on the graphs.
Re: “I don’t normally post 3-week-old articles…”
No worries, you already posted it on September 28.
Why that forced low volatility is so dangerous. No price discovery.
• China’s Mortgage Debt Bubble Raises Spectre Of 2007 US Crisis (SCMP)
Young Chinese like Eli Mai, a sales manager in Guangzhou, and Wendy Wang, an executive in Shenzhen, are borrowing as much money as possible to buy boomtown flats even though they cannot afford the repayments…https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/opinion/hurricane-puerto-rico-jones-act.html
The link was missing the “l” in the .html
I’m strongly anti-debt, but the following could be misleading:
“For each $1.00 the economy grew in this 1 year period the total debt outstanding increased by $5.48.”I won’t go into the portion of the $5.48 that is due to the increase in residential mortgages outstanding, which doesn’t really grow the economy anyway (except for the fraction related to new construction). Instead, I take issue with it being presented as some sort of cost/benefit relationship, with the “benefits” of the growth being limited to the single year that it grew.
A simplified example:
Joe’s income has stagnated. He could acquire additional credentials, which would raise his income, but he would have to borrow money to do it. The credential program for Joe has a one-time charge of $5,480. Should Joe take on $5,480 of debt if it would raise his annual income by $1,000? Joe’s growth in income would occur just one year, and then it would be stagnant again. But Joe would reap the benefits of that growth (the extra $1,000 of annual income) every year thereafter. (Until the economy crashes and nobody is hiring…) If the interest rate on the loan is “reasonable”, then a typical cost/benefit analysis could conclude that Joe should take on the $5,480 of debt.Not mentioned is military service, a form of indentured servitude that survives today. Add a draft (for both genders?) and presto, coerced servitude. In the name of Homeland Security, to prevent and quell uprisings? To keep the “have nots” in their designated places (once they become too numerous to ignore)?
Conditions in “Third World” countries could provide glimpses of the rest of the world’s future. Shantytowns, household servants galore (for the privileged class), and people willing to work for a pittance to scrape by.
I recall a stunt by “The Yes Men” where the speaker impersonated an official from the WTO. He gave a talk about slavery being economically inefficient, with the present day practices of paying low wages, and letting the workers feed and house themselves, being less costly for the employers.
Found it:
