chooch
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(11 months before invasion)
“We tend to repeat what worked. Political scientists call it “path-dependence.” Finding himself now in what could be a tighter bind, politically and economically, than in 2012-13 and with the “Crimean consensus” eroding, Putin may reach for that which has done very well by him in the past: short victorious wars.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/15/russia-putin-invasion-ukraine-baltics-nato-475527
(4 months before invasion)
“Ukraine is considering several scenarios for the development of the military situation and carries out strategic planning in case it has to repel a full-scale invasion of the aggressor. Oleksiy Arestovich, advisor to the head of the President’s Office, speaker of the Ukrainian side in the Trilateral Contact Group, spoke about this on the air of the Ukraine 24 TV channel.”
“There are 9 scenarios”: Arestovich revealed the secrets of Ukraine’s preparation for a big war
Thanks for that Dr. D,
God is a paradox (not really)
Life is a mystery (thank God)
Man chooses to create hell on earth.
Cell phones have played an outsized role in the Ukraine war. In particular, they have been used to geolocate sensitive military sites, giving the Ukrainians the ability to target Russian ships, ammunition depots, troop clusters and weapon locations.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/the-fatal-failure-of-russias-era-cryptophone-system/?amp_markup=1
The point about troop clusters seems to bare out. As the Ukrainians battle with the Russians in Severodonetsk, Russian reserves are pulled for elsewhere creating weak links in the line where effective counter offensives can be launched.
The snippet with Doug Macgregor about WH sending high tech missile systems to Ukraine.
“I don’t know how they are going to acquire targets.” (Macgregor)
The US military news portal reports that soldiers’ mobile phone signals can be located in order to fire rockets at positions with pinpoint accuracy
The Ukrainians claim to have killed 12 general Russian officers since late February, in part because the Russians have resorted to using cell phones when their communications systems break down.
Russian troops are proving that cell phones in war zones are a very bad idea
Cell phones have played an outsized role in the Ukraine war. In particular, they have been used to geolocate sensitive military sites, giving the Ukrainians the ability to target Russian ships, ammunition depots, troop clusters and weapon locations.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/the-fatal-failure-of-russias-era-cryptophone-system/?amp_markup=1
The point about troop clusters seems to bare out. As the Ukrainians battle with the Russians in Severodonetsk, Russian reserves are pulled for elsewhere creating weak links in the line where effective counter offensives can be launched.
John,
That’s certainly what Putin would want everyone to believe. Just changing my focal length. It appears there are Nazis being lead by war criminals on both sides.
In Luongo recent commentary he asks, “What would you do to survive? To protect your family? Your position? Your conception of yourself? Everyone’s morality has limits.”
When I was “doom scrolling” the other day I came across a video of a line Ukrainian soldier pinned down in a trench being fired upon by a group of Russian soldiers. All human, someone’s brother?son? father? Yet all convinced the other is less than human.
How do you get to be that guy in trench? The ones firing upon him? The guy holding the camera? Could I have found myself in such a situation had I made different choices in my youth? Will I find myself in such a situation in the future?
4/1 – Izyum (retreated)
4/18 – Kremennays (retreated)
5/8 – Popasnaya (retreated)
5/12 – Rubezhnoye (retreated)
5/20 – Mariupol (surrendered)
Soon- Severodonetsk (in retreat)With the battle for Severodonetsk becoming a lost cause, the Ukrainians seem determined to get as much ranged weaponry as possible for a significant attempt to degrade Russian forces from a distance. Then what, guerrilla style warfare behind the Donbas line?
It’s debatable (could be intentional) but the Russians have not been able to dominate the air over the battlefield so by and large we have witnessed a reliance on massive artillery barrages to take these towns and cities.
Did Russia really plan for this bloody war of attrition? Russia may be counting on to a long war to test the West’s true commitment to Ukraine’s defense & ability to reclaim its territory.
It’s seems like a frozen conflict is a probability and then east/west Ukraine? Somehow I suspect Putin wants more than that, maybe not all of Ukraine, but certainly Kyiv, preferably in tact not reduced to rubble.
Interesting,
Peak to trough ~90 days
Peak to peak ~180 daysBrief trip back into Covid data today:
Promising news from South Africa, where the BA.4 / BA.5 variant wave has passed quietly, with high levels of immunity meaning this wave has had little impact on rates of severe illness or death pic.twitter.com/C5W6iZzDLK
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) May 30, 2022
Can’t stop itching.
A new global Monkeypox tracker shows that there are currently 590 suspected and confirmed cases of Monkeypox worldwide in the latest outbreak. The highly contagious disease has already spread to every continent except Antarctica.
The global dashboard can be accessed at https://monkeypox.healthmap.org/
Since stress affects the immune system, many researchers believe that stress could be a trigger for shingles. Researchers in multiple studies have linked chronic, daily stress, and highly stressful life events as risk factors for shingles.
Deja vu, we just need more testing.
Archie,
I’m not sure that would be the takeaway. (Just glad I don’t live on the east or west coast). Seriously though, here are the competing narratives if you will.
Either the Ukrainians are basically on the point of collapse in the Donbas and the Russians are about to storm ahead–or the Russians are running very short on resources and getting a little desperate.
It seems both sides are desperate.
But given the fact that the Russian army numbers about 900,000 men , and before the invasion, probably at least 20% of its personnel was concentrated near Ukraine’s borders.
The remaining combat-ready formations of ground forces are located near the western borders due to possible confrontation with the NATO.
The 15th Alexandria Motorized Rifle Brigade from the village of Roshchinskiy in the Samara Oblast has also been sent to invade Ukraine. This brigade is the only peacekeeping unit in the country that Russia can send to solve international conflicts under the aegis of the UN.
All the units of the Russian Armed Forces capable of attacking are taking part in the operation.
The motorized, artillery and anti-aircraft units of all 12 Russian land armies and a separate tank division ;all airborne offensive forces: five airborne assault divisions, two airborne divisions, and one special forces brigade; six reconnaissance brigades of the General Staff ;marines of all four fleets and surface ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet; fighter, assault and bomber regiments of the Russian Air and Space Forces and fleet aviation; police and National Guard (Rosgvardiya) forces.
This seems a bit surprising and the messaging on state TV seems to support it.
I think I remember from previous posts that you severed. Not sure how Memorial Day sits with you, but we’ll wishes nonetheless.
We will be here all week……. https://t.co/t0MXim3zfN
— Nuno Felix (@Felix_Nuno) May 30, 2022
Sickening https://t.co/MOpPIC23lN
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) May 30, 2022
(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
Not sure if the is true (nyet).
Interview with Retired Russian General,
A must-see for everyone who is pushing Ukraine for “compromise” with Russia https://t.co/sHv0yuRSKu
— Andrij Melnyk (@MelnykAndrij) May 30, 2022
Eye Candy meets patriotism.
This is not a parody
Moscow plastic surgeon Yevgeny Dobreykin is promoting his new Росгрудь breast implants for "real patriots"
They're available in camouflage or the colours of the Russian flag pic.twitter.com/7VxUbylT0Y
— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) May 30, 2022
“Putin cannot be defeated. And this is a big problem. Because, excuse me, a nuclear power and this increase in rates is going on all the time. And now the United States is trying to drag out the proxy war with Russia as much as possible, the White House is constantly considering the possibility of transferring systems to Kyiv salvo fire, Zelensky is begging for them. But Biden understands, just a minute, that if Russian nuclear power plants are in the affected area, if our cities are hit with a large number of victims, then we can generally consider this whole situation differently. We we can say: you supplied American weapons, you are to blame and we can strike at decision-making centers, we don’t give a damn about Article 5 or not”– said Solovyov on the air of his program.”
Kremlin propagandist Solovyov again threatens with a nuclear strike: who this time (video)
Just for fun,
Oroboros, I bet you have a Putin poster hanging in your place.
and some Bonnie Tyler on your iTunes.
Do not know if this true yet as Russia has been calling this the red line.
US approves transfer of long-range multiple-launch rocket systems to Ukraine: Report
Also,
Kremlin considering another assault on Kyiv and planning victory in Ukraine by fall – Meduza citing sources inside Putin administration.
And
Russia’s Defense Ministry said its hypersonic cruise missile Zircon launched from the Barents Sea hit a target in the White Sea. Russia has been threatening Sweden & Finland amid their plans to join NATO.
Russia going Abe Lincoln.
Russia can simply issue its own "investment money" in place of the $350b frozen by the West, Russian space chief Dmitry Rogozin confidently declares.
Russia's financial & economic officials should "think very seriously about this" pic.twitter.com/jNte2W9c8q
— Scott Rose (@rprose) May 28, 2022
Oroboros, why do you want to paint me as a nazi?
Anyway, here is an update from O’Brien.
Ukrainian strategy in the Donbas has certainly been the subject of some discussion–primarily because they have taken the decision to fight for what seems like a shrinking pocket which the Russians are clearly trying to encircle. https://t.co/6hMYD1EQvF
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 28, 2022
Russian forces are heavily degraded and will struggle to replace further losses.
Ukrainian defense are also depleted, but remain “effective overall”.General Zaluzhnyi: “It’s very difficult for us but we hold the ground. We fight for every stretch of the front and each settlement.”
For clarity, changes in the administration of territories in the Donbas over the past 2 weeks, from Friday May 13 to Friday May 27. pic.twitter.com/HcVnLHiRUm
— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) May 27, 2022
The tide has been turning, it will become more obvious once the military kit/forces from the West becomes operational. Also sanctions are impacting military supply chains in Russia.
As of late, Russians have been deploying 50 year old T-62 tanks to the theater of action.
There seem to be two completely different narratives emerging about the Battle of the Donbas, one on the micro level and one from the larger perspective, and its fascinating to see the differences. Thought I would try and summarize.
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) May 27, 2022
Russian advances in the Donbas are prompting a lot of commentary, including some irrational enthusiasm and gloom. It's worth looking at the bigger picture, as @ian_matveev (follow him!) has done in a thread which I've translated below with his permission. pic.twitter.com/mcTTLPbIrc
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 26, 2022
Per the New Russian Recruitment Bill,
“Highly professional specialists are needed to use high-precision weapons and operate weapons and military equipment,” said one note accompanying the bill.
https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1529487015087063041?s=20&t=3sO0u6eBi9dN226eVVRUcw
According to Trent Telekom (Retired DoD Civil Servant)
The US military and most other western aligned militaries build guided missile preventative maintenance programs around long service, highly trained non-commissioned officers (NCO’s).
Russia does not have a professional NCO corps as the West understands the term.
There are contract Praporshchik & Senior Praporshchik and junior officers who do a lot of technical subject related maintenance.
And the levels of Kleptocracy rampant in the Russian military since the 2012 ascension of Defense Minister Shoigu means training & expensive diagnostic equipment have been defrauded.
Russian Lawmakers Scrap Upper Age Limit for Military Service
Analysts say Russia may be seeking to loosen requirements for contract soldiers in hopes of shoring up its manpower in Ukraine without resorting to potentially unpopular measures like mass mobilization.
“If the Russians are to make any serious advances from now on, it will have to be with slow, methodical operations with a significant investment in resource and manpower.”
So Kissinger said,
“Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome.”
This two month window of time keeps cropping up whether it is the remilitarization of the Ukraine forces and the deployment of trained guerillas to be deployed in Russian occupied regions.
For Russia, they need the two month window to mobilize more troops to back fill so they can redeploy their battalion groups for the next phase of the offensive.
Then of course, the Chinese are running air and sea combat drills while Biden is in the Region. Recordings of Chinese Twain invasion planning are leaked. How much is misinformation/misdirection?
I don’t think XI has the cojones and Putin needs an off ramp. I guess we will find out this summer. Who is gonna take the coup dog seriously? Maybe for that reason alone they should. Life seems to have no value. The irony of it all.
Most will be swallowed up in death simply because that is what we choose.
Underscoring this commitment, and as #monkeypox is of global public health importance as identified by the @WHO, we are investigating potential monkeypox vaccines at a preclinical level. pic.twitter.com/4VfLrxybNn
— Moderna (@moderna_tx) May 23, 2022
The Gates of Hell
WHY is this dropout speaking on epidemiology and clinical infectious disease? Listen to the end. @DrJBhattacharya @MartinKulldorff https://t.co/RzI3eKxzbj
— Dr. Lynn Fynn (Fan Account) (@fynn_fan) May 24, 2022
I am dumbfounded, but Kissinger for Secretary of State.
Shoigu said, Russian troops are not carrying out strikes on civilian infrastructure where there may be people nearby. Instead, identified firing positions and Ukrainian military facilities are being hit with “high-precision weapons,” he added.
Moscow explains Ukraine operation slowdown The move is intentional and allows civilians the chance to evacuate, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu says
(Shoigu is almost Bidenesque)
But given the slowdown spin, Orlov thinks WW3 will still be over in 20 more days. (That’s good, because it will probably take more than 20 to get those Harpoons operational)
Something a Z-tard would say,
“Now that, Western arms shipments notwithstanding, the Ukrainian military is being whittled away at a rate that will finish it off in approximately 20 days (the calculated “Day Z”), Russia is poised to emerge as an outright victor in World War III which, just like the Cold War, which it had lost, was barely even fought. This will restore Russia’s military’s mystique of being perpetually victorious.”
Video from today's 13-hour joint Sino-Russian strategic bomber flight with Russian Tu-95MS and Chinese H-6 bombers and a Russian Su-30SM fighter escort over the Sea of Japan and East China Sea.https://t.co/WIGmASCx0Chttps://t.co/iDxuCv3jsz pic.twitter.com/CAE1LRYIc6
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 24, 2022
Whatever you consume will consume you.
[..] Jesus said to them, “Very truly I tell you, unless you eat the flesh of the Son of Man and drink his blood, you have no life in you.
[..] For my flesh is real food and my blood is real drink. Whoever eats my flesh and drinks my blood remains in me, and I in them.
[doubting..] Thomas said to him, “Lord, we don’t know where you are going, so how can we know the way?”
Jesus answered, “I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me. If you really know me, you will know my Father as well. From now on, you do know him and have seen him.”
Dr. D,
Basically, Lincoln was capitalizing on the premise that you can’t be oppressed by a debt you owe to yourselves.
I find financial topics very overwhelming, but it seems we currently have some debt we owe ourselves that we could default on and no big deal.
I miss my 5% savings account from childhood.
What Russians are being told (60 minutes tv program in Russia)
https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/status/1527621536831635456?s=20&t=A2ywQbDND2JJatHblX0AJg
What Janet Yellen said,
Missing Kovid.
[…] Why did the Ministry of Defense pay a company that is supposedly a “global company for engineering, procurement, consulting and construction specialized in infrastructure development” to help implement the “program to reduce the biological threat in Ukraine”?
And why did both DOD and the company pay Labyrinth Global Health INC to conduct the KOVID-19 study in Ukraine at least a month before the alleged appearance of the new coronavirus, and three months before it was officially named Kovid-19?
[..] The Wuhan Institute of Virology is believed to have engaged in the risky form of research regarding bat coronaviruses, as now-deleted webpages reveal the lab manipulating bat coronaviruses to “replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV.”
Now, the latest edition of the lab’s journal, Virologica Sinica, appears to contain a similar style of research with the H7N9 virus in chickens and mice. The publication’s Editor-in-Chief is Wuhan’s infamous “bat lady,” Shi Zhengli, who is the lab’s premier bat coronavirus researcher and a recipient of funds from Anthony Fauci through Peter Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance.
Virologica Sinica published the study “Combined Insertion of Basic and Non-basic Amino Acids at Hemagglutinin Cleavage Site of Highly Pathogenic H7N9 Virus Promotes Replication and Pathogenicity in Chickens and Mice” in its most recent edition, published February 2022.
Lira. I hadn’t listened to him since before his catch and release. Saw that you linked it and figured it might be worth a listen. Never make that mistake again. (Just kidding).
Anyway, relieved he wasn’t harmed. His release from the SBU implies a few things, either what he has been saying is highly credible and whacking him would only confirm that or they found what he was saying was incredible and harmless for the most part ( though he must have hit a nerve). There is the counter intelligence angle to consider too.
I thought Brian Eno did a good job framing the discourse challenge.
The destruction of Mariupol.
The two memes.
Meme1
The Truth About Nazism in Ukraine: And Why the Media is Covering It Up…
Meme2
They speak with fork tongues
Western serpent
Eastern serpent
Interesting from Vladimir Solovyov tonight:
He says the huge Victory Day turnout was "such a mandate" for Putin that he can count on Russians' full support if he shifts the "special military operation" up to a "turbo military operation"
"The people are ready!"
(with subtitles) pic.twitter.com/vmbnJdnaOi— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) May 11, 2022
Recently, there was a leaked audio regarding Taiwan and Chinese war mobilization plans.
Here is a transcript provided by Jennifer Zeng. She has an Odysee channel, Inconvenient Truths.
https://zzeng97.blog.bannedbook.org
And the audio
It was released by Lude Media
Politico article from yesterday evening.
U.S. officials are pushing their Taiwanese counterparts with new urgency to look to Ukraine’s success in fending off Russian forces as a blueprint for countering a Chinese attack, former and current U.S. officials tell POLITICO.
