Apr 282015
 
 April 28, 2015  Posted by at 5:03 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,  5 Responses »


Harris&Ewing Ford Motor Co. New medical center parking garage, Washington, DC 1938

Dutch daily Algemeen Dagblad ran a little article recently that we’re surprised no other news organization picked up. It concerned a proposal in the European Parliament in which the parliamentarians got to vote on raising their own paycheck (always a good idea). The best thing about the story is that not everyone voted in favor.

Most did though. It much amused me to see that apparently it was Angela Merkel’s party, the German Christian Democrats, which was behind the proposal. Initially, they had even wanted double what they actually got. Here’s some numbers and details – and please forgive me for not being a math wizard -.

A Member of the European Parliament (MEP), according to the article, receives the following for their valiant and entirely selfless efforts at public service:

• Salary: €8000+
• Expenses: €4300
• A per diem allowance of €300 for every day a meeting is attended.

Per year that adds up to: €147.600 + €30,000 if 100 meetings are attended. Let’s say €180,000.

On top of that, the Parliament pays into MEPs pension funds, but we’ll leave that alone for now.

There are 751 MEPs, so total ‘salary’ costs are €135,180,000. But that’s just the start.

And we’re not yet adding translation costs, which apparently can add up to over €120,000 per day (!), or perhaps some €30-40 million per year.

Nor are we taking into account the estimated at least €200 million per year it takes to have the entire Parliament (MEPs, assistants, translators, employees, in total about 4000 people) move between Brussels and Strasbourg every month, an oddity that springs from a drawn-out power poker play between Germany and France. Do note: the constant move costs way more than all 751 MEP’s base salary + expenses.

No, the proposal discussed, concerns the added expense accounts MEPs receive for their assistants. At present, the amount involved is over €21,000 per month, and according to the people who receive it – and vote on raising it -, that’s not enough.

Typically, says the Dutch paper, an MEP has 3 assistants, all of whom get paid €2500 a month. They’re also in a special low Brussels income tax bracket. This means each MEP receives €252.000 per year in ‘assistant costs’, and spends €90,000 in salary costs, leaving €162,000 for food and lodging. Since there are 751 MEPs, the total adds up to €15,771,000 per month or €189,252,000 per year.

And they want more.

The original proposal called for another €3000 per month. Because some MEPs protested against this, it was reduced to €1500. Or €18,000 per year per MEP, times 751, a cool €13,518,000. Just in extra costs they voted in all by themselves.

There are many many stories about people living the high life once they get voted into the Brussels/Strasbourg traveling circus. The majority have lucrative jobs at home. They stay in swanky hotels. They collect per diems for meetings they don’t actually attend. They lay the basis for lucrative corporate careers after they exit the Parliament. It’s democracy in theory but not in practice.

Brussels/Strasbourg is no stranger to corruption, or whatever word you would want to to use to describe what goes on. Still, there are lots of MEPs who are completely on the up and up, and many who even pay back a lot of their ‘compensation’ into either the Parliament itself or into their own – national – part coffers, because they say the payments are exorbitant. But they don’t speak up. At least not outside of the confines of the Parliament itself.

But these are also – all of them put together – the people who uphold the EU policies versus Greece, where there are really many children who are hungry, and seniors who can’t get proper health care. Faced with a situation like that, one would think a proper parliament of a proper union wouldn’t dare raise its own expenses – which have to be paid by member countries’ taxpayers – before and until all children in the union are properly fed, and all grandmas properly taken care off by qualified medical personnel.

One would think. These are also the people responsible for the EU support that allows the Kiev army’s mass killings of its own people. And for the continuation of the anti-Russia and anti-Putin stance that’s become so popular across the western world. They may not be the daily executives of the circus, but they still are the responsible at the end of the day.

They are also the people who voted to cut down the budget for the Mediterranean refugee patrol missions, money saved that, if you want to take a cynical enough view, was freed to raise their own stipends. As thousands drown.

And so again we would like to raise that question: why would anyone, any country, want to have these people take their decisions for them? What would make you think when you live in Greece that these traveling circus clowns would be better at protecting and defending your interests than your own people, who live where you live, who see what you see on a daily basis?

It’s fine, and it’s perhaps even logical, at first glance, for Greeks and Italians to want to remain part of the euro. But when you look closer, you can’t avoid the notion that by being part of the euro, you give up the autonomy you also crave. And that the price you pay for being a part of the euro, and of the EU, makes you a serf to greater and richer interests that care about you about as much as they care about flies on their walls.

This one story about what MEPs vote themselves is but one example. Why not send us an example of where and how you feel Brussels protects your interests better than your own governments? We’re really curious to know. Because we don’t see it.

Apr 212015
 
 April 21, 2015  Posted by at 6:50 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  5 Responses »


Alfred Palmer Women as engine mechanics, Douglas Aircraft, Long Beach, CA 1942

That Europe let almost 1000 people die in the Mediterranean in one night shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, at least not to those who are still occasionally awake. The Club Med migrant crisis has been going on for a long time, and the EU’s only reaction to it has been to slash its budget and operations in the area, not to expand them.

So when the New York Times opens with “European leaders were confronted on Monday with a humanitarian crisis in the Mediterranean..”, they’re a mile and a half less than honest. Brussels has known what was going on for years, and decided to do less than nothing.

The onus was put on Italy, Malta, Greece and a handful of private compassionate activists to handle the situation, as if it was some sort of local, or even tourist, issue, while Europe’s finest went back to festive gala openings of their €1 billion+ ‘official’ edifices, and back to forcing more austerity on member nations. Somebody has to pay for those buildings.

The EU took over rescue operations from Italy late last year and promptly cut the budget by two-thirds. Saving migrant lives was deemed just too expensive. You don’t survive in European politics if you don’t get your priorities straight.

On March 8, I wrote ‘Europe, The Morally Bankrupt Union’, and things have only deteriorated from there. If the international press, and various world leaders, wouldn’t have called them out over the weekend, the Brussels class would still not do a thing about the migrant drama, and would still feel comfortable hiding behind the factoid that most migrants drown outside European waters.

In their meeting on Monday, a bunch of EU interior and foreign ministers once again didn’t reach any meaningful conclusions; it’ll be up to presidents and prime ministers to do this on Thursday. One might almost hope for another huge tragedy before that date, just so the cynical hypocrisy that rules Europe would be exposed once again for all to see. From my March 8 piece:

To its south, the EU faces perhaps its most shameful -or should that be ‘shameless’? – problem, because it doesn’t do anything about it: the thousands of migrants who try to cross the Mediterranean to get to Europe but far too often perish in the process. The Italians spend themselves poor, trying to save as many migrants as they can (170,000 last year!), and there are private citizens – Americans even – pouring in millions of dollars, but the EU itself has zero comprehensive policy as people keep dying on its doorstep all the time. The official line out of Brussels is that the EU polices only the European coastline, but the drownings mostly take place off the Lybian coast. At least Italy and others do sail there to alleviate the human misery.

And now the problem threatens to expand into a whole new and additional dimension, with Muslim extremists like ISIS set to travel alongside the migrants to gain entry into Europe with the aim of launching terror attacks. Having turned a blind eye to the issue for years, Europe will now find itself woefully unprepared for this new development. Still, expect more bluster and brute force where there was never any reason or need for it. That the EU’s MO today.

And whaddaya know: brute force it is.

EU To Launch Military Operations Against Migrant-Smugglers In Libya

The EU is to launch military operations against the networks of smugglers in Libya deemed culpable of sending thousands of people to their deaths in the Mediterranean. An emergency meeting of EU interior and foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, held in response to the reported deaths of several hundred migrants in a packed fishing trawler off the Libyan coast at the weekend, also decided to bolster maritime patrols in the Mediterranean and give their modest naval mission a broader search-and-rescue mandate for saving lives. A summit of EU leaders is to take place in Brussels on Thursday to hammer out the details of the measures hurriedly agreed on Monday. [..]

The meeting “identified some actions” aimed at combatting the trafficking gangs mainly in Libya, such as “destroying ships”, Mogherini said. Dimitris Avramopoulos, the European commissioner for migration issues, said the operation would be “civil-military” modelled on previous military action in the Horn of Africa to combat Somali piracy. The military action would require a UN mandate. No detail was supplied on the scale and range of the proposed operation, nor of who would take part in it. But European leaders from David Cameron to Angela Merkel and Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, were emphatic on Monday in singling out the fight against the migrant traffickers as the top priority in the attempt to rein in a crisis that is spiralling out of control.

That not everyone on this planet has completely lost their sense of moral values doesn’t count for much if those who have none left are time and again ‘elected’ to the highest posts. But still:

[..] Save the Children accused the EU of dithering as children drowned, after they failed to agree immediate action to set up a European search and rescue operation in the Mediterranean. Save the Children CEO Justin Forsyth said: “What we needed from EU foreign ministers today was life-saving action, but they dithered. The emergency summit on Thursday is now a matter of life and death. “With each day we delay we lose more innocent lives and Europe slips further into an immoral abyss. Right now, people desperately seeking a better life are drowning in politics. We have to restart the rescue – and now.”

That is very true. But drowning in politics is precisely what the EU elite, as well as Cameron, Merkel and Renzi have made a career of. They would like nothing better than to drown everyone around them in it too, and they certainly would feel no qualm about a few nameless and faceless poor sods their voters may not have enough sympathy for to give them a slice of moldy bread.

Ironic, since, as Patrick Boyle rightly remarks today: “We fear the arrival of immigrants that we have drawn here with the wealth we stole from them.” But that may never be recognized.

Instead of making sanity heard, Europe’s leaders grow more wary by the day of the potential electoral losses that may result from the growing xenophobia spreading around the continent. Politics is a calculated game ruled exclusively by the lowest common denominator. Not by morals.

But of course, they still know how to talk the talk, as the BBC reports :

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the 10-point package set out at talks in Luxembourg was a “strong reaction from the EU to the tragedies” and “shows a new sense of urgency and political will”. “We are developing a truly European sense of solidarity in fighting human trafficking – finally so.” [..]

That Europe has the guts to say such things says a lot about who their audience is: the vast majority are people who are not paying any attention, who don’t give a damn, or who think the fewer Africans make it to Europe, the better.

In a functioning democratic system, you would say throw out those who failed, let them as it used to be called “face the consequences of their actions”, but Brussels has no such system. Mogherini should obviously be put out by the curb, since the final political responsibility for the tragedy is hers, but she won’t go.

And there is certainly no mechanism for throwing out the leaders of the various member governments. Other, perhaps, than elections that are mostly years away, by which time their disgraceful behavior will have either long been forgotten or overshadowed by ‘more important’ issues like road building, gasoline taxes and pension cuts.

Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat said Sunday’s disaster off Libya was “a game changer”, adding: “If Europe doesn’t work together history will judge it very badly.”

No worries, Mr. Muscat, history will judge the EU very badly regardless of what it does from here on in, and for many reasons. Homicidal negligence is but one of many.

Meanwhile Martin Schulz, apparently not the fastest cookie in the jar, volunteers to indict himself:

Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament, expressed dismay at what he characterized as European apathy over the migration crisis. “How many more people will have to drown until we finally act in Europe?” he asked in a statement. “How many times more do we want to express our dismay, only to then move on to our daily routine?”

Indeed, Mr. Schulz, how many more times will you? I’m thinking, if given a chance, you will do just that a lot more times. And I don’t hear anyone calling for your resignation, so you would seem to be off the hook too. If, on the other hand, you’d like to claim that even the president of the European Parliament doesn’t have the power to save human lives, you have us wondering why such a parliament exists, and has a president, in the first place.

You either have the power or you don’t. And if you do have the power, you have the responsibility too. That’s how politics used to be structured, and for good reason. If and when people die because of what you either do or neglect to do, you “face the consequences”. The fact that such a mechanism doesn’t even begin to exist in the EU speaks volumes about how poorly and badly it was constructed in the first place.

And neither does the EU just fail spectacularly in the waters of the Mediterranean. It fails as badly in Greece, where it keeps pushing demands for more austerity on people going hungry, and in Ukraine, where the EU is an accomplice, through a ‘government’ it supports, to the loss of what German intelligence claims are as many as 50,000 human lives.

The body count is rising, and Brussels itself will never call it quits. It really is high time to halt this unholy union.

Mar 202015
 
 March 20, 2015  Posted by at 8:59 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  7 Responses »


DPC Provision store. Caracas, Venezuela 1905

Once again, a look at Greece and the Troika, because it amuses me, it angers me, and also because it warms my cockles, in an entirely metaphorical sort of way. The Troika members love to make it appear (and everyone swallows it whole) as if in their ‘negotiations’ with Greece all sorts of things are cast in stone and have no flexibility at all. Humbug.

First, another great piece by Rob Parenteau (via Yves Smith), who lays it out in terms so simple they can’t but hit the issue square on the nose. For Europe and the Troika, there’s Greece, and then there’s the rest. No money for the Greeks lining up at soupkitchens (not even for the soupkitchens themselves), but $60 billion a month for the bond market. The $200 million anti-poverty law – a measly sum in comparison – that Athens voted in this week is a no-no because Greek government has to ask permission for everything in Brussels first, says Brussels, no matter that that only prolongs the suffering. It’s not about money, in other words, it’s about power, and the Greeks must be subdued.

Both the financial and the political press have by now perfected their picture of Yanis Varoufakis as a combination of some kind of incompetent blunderer on the one hand, and a threat the size of Vladimir Putin on the other, while the rudeness of German FinMin Schäuble is not discussed at all. The media are no longer capable of reporting anything outside of their propaganda models. The ‘middle finger’ video turns out to be a fake, but who cares, it’s done its damage. Parenteau:

Goebbelnomics – Austerian Duplicity and the Dispensing of Greece

So let’s get this straight. The Troika does not have enough money to roll over Greek debt (in a Ponzi scheme like fashion, mind you) – debt that was incurred not so much as a bailout of Greece, but more as a bailout of German and other core nation banks and insurance companies and private investors who made stupid loans to or investments in Greece, but refused to fob them off on their own taxpayers.

But the Troika does have enough money to adequately perform damage control for the eurozone if Greece, because, you know, Greece is a “dispensable” eurozone member – even though ECB lawyers themselves say there is no legal mechanism for disposing of eurozone members in any such fashion.

No money in Greece for humanitarian aid in a country that may be on its way to becoming a failed nation state. No money outside Greece to roll over existing debt, or when necessary to extend and pretend, add more debt on existing debt to service the old debt, Charles Ponzi style. But somehow there is still “sufficient” money to ring fence Greece from the rest of the eurozone once Greece figures out it is dispensable and so must exit.

But that is not even the whole deception. It turns out the ECB does happen to have enough money to buy €60 billion per month of bonds from now until at least September 2016. Which means the same bondholders who are benefitting from the misnamed “bailout” funds used to keep the core nation financial institutions from collapsing under the weight of failed loans, can now count on a monthly government handout, courtesy of the ECB.

Some are more equal than others, in other words. That is true also of Ukraine, which gets to issue bonds guaranteed by the American taxpayer. If Greece could do that, they‘d have a way out of the dark pit austerity has thrown it in. And Greece isn’t even killing its own people…. But then Kiev doesn’t need to be subdued, it’s already being ruled exclusively by US stooges.

To come back to Schäuble lack of basic civil manners for a moment, it’s of course not true that Germany has an ironclad case against the Greek demands for WWII reparations. If it did, none of the rudeness would be necessary. And aside from that, even if the case was indeed closed, Germany would still need to be open and respectful and way more civilized than it is at present. WWII is a very black chapter in world history, and it’s not some very remote event. Even if post-WWII German schoolchildren never learned anything about what their parents and grandparents had done.

Maybe there’s a task here for the world Jewish community. Schäuble’s attitude smacks of denial, much more than respect for victims and their surviving family members. And besides, there were a lot of Greek Jews who became victim of German atrocities.

But to focus for now on the purely legal side of the matter, there’s at the very least a large grey area:

Legal Experts: Greece Has Grounds for WWII Reparations

A growing number of legal experts are supporting Greece’s demands over the German war reparations from the country’s brutal Nazi occupation during World War II. Despite the official German refusal to address the issue, legal experts say now Athens has ground for the case. The hot issue is expected to be brought up by Greece’s newly elected Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras during his official visit to Berlin on Monday, where he is scheduled to hold a meeting with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. [..]

The Greek leftist-led coalition government has repeatedly raised the issue causing Germany’s firm reaction as expressed by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who recently warned Athens to forget the war reparations, underlining that the issue has been settled decades ago. Central to Germany’s argument is that 115 million deutschmarks have been paid to Greece in the 1960s, while similar deals were made with other European countries that suffered a Nazi occupation.

At the same time, though, lawyers from Germany and other countries have said the issue is not wrapped up, as Germany never agreed a universal deal to clear up reparations after its unconditional surrender. The German answer on that is that in 1990, before its reunification, the “Two plus Four Treaty” agreement was signed with the United Kingdom, the United States, the former Soviet Union and France, which renounced all future claims. According to Berlin, this agreement settles the issue for other states too.

“The German government’s argument is thin and contestable. It is not permissible to agree to a treaty at the expense of a third party, in this case Greece,” international law specialist Andreas Fischer-Lescano said, as cited by Reuters. Mr. Lescano’s opinion finds several other experts in agreement. One of them, the Greek lawyer Anestis Nessou, who works in Germany highlighted that “there is a lot of room for interpretation. Greece was not asked, so the claims have not gone away.”

Merkel had better start taking the matter very serious, and in a very respectful way to boot. Because no matter how well oiled the publicity spin machine is, Schäuble’s attitude, mirrored by many of his countrymen, will awaken in countries all across Europe the realization that they don’t want this from Germany, they won’t be ruled by Berlin, and they won’t stand for more German uncivilized behavior either. The memories are far too fresh for that.

As I said the other day, Merkel had better take the reins in all this, because she risks blowing up the entire European Union if she lets things slip further. Let Greece go, if only by trying to force it into some sort of debt servitude which the Greek people deem unacceptable on moral grounds, and the EU project will start shaking on its already feeble foundations.

There’s only one thing that can save the Union now: for Merkel to show compassion, with the Greeks, and with all other weaker members. And to stop the anti-Greek propaganda, immediately. Or else. It’s nonsense to pretend that this is merely a business issue, as is made clear by Parenteau above: there is very clearly plenty space to negotiate solutions with Greece that preserve everyone’s dignity. Refuse that, and you can kiss the EU goodbye. There’s alot more that plays into this than mere money issues. Ignore that, and you might as well dismantle the Union right now.

And there are indeed other approaches too. Like that of the German couple, whose story I picked up some 24 hours ago on RT, and which has since appeared on a whole scale of media:

German Couple Pays €875 To Greece For Their Share Of WWII Reparations

A German couple visiting Greece have handed over a check for €875 to the mayor of the seaport town of Nafplio, saying they wanted to make amends for their government’s attitude for refusing to pay Second World War reparations. Nina Lahge, who works a 30-hour week, and Ludwig Zacaro, who is retired, made the symbolic gesture and explained that the amount of €875 would be the amount one person would owe if Germany’s entire war debt was divided by the population of 80 million Germans.

“If we, the 80 million Germans, would have to pay the debts of our country to Greece, everyone would owe €875 euros. In [a] display of solidarity and as a symbolic move we wanted to return this money, the €875 euros, to the Greek population,” they said.

They apologized for not being able to afford to pay for both of them. “We are ashamed of the arrogance, which our country and many of our fellow citizens show towards Greece,” they told local media in Nafplio, southern Greece. The Greek people are not responsible for the fiasco of their previous governments, they believe.

“Germany is the one owing to your country the World War II reparation money, part of which is also the forced loan of 1942,” they added. The couple was referring to a loan which the Nazis forced the Greek central bank to give the Third Reich during the WWII thus ruining the occupied country’s economy. The mayor of Nafplio, Dimitris Kotsouros, said the money had been donated to a local charity.

And a perhaps even better story comes, almost entirely under the radar, through Kathimerini. Turns out, where Brussels and Berlin spend their time blaming Tsipras and Varoufakis for everything that happens, Norway, not an EU or eurozone member, steps in to alleviate the worst of the suffering:

Athens Mayor Unveils Scheme To Support Poor With Help From Norway

Athens Mayor Giorgos Kaminis, Norwegian Ambassador Sjur Larsen and the president of nongovernmental organization Solidarity Now, Stelios Zavvos, on Wednesday inaugurated a new program to provide support to the Greek capital’s poor. The Solidarity & Social Reintegration scheme comprises a food program benefiting 3,600 households, as well as a space provided by City Hall and managed by Solidarity Now where the organization will provide social, medical and legal aid, among other services.

“The aim is the immediate relief of those in need by providing food, medical care, social services, legal support, help finding employment, and support for single-parent families, children and other vulnerable groups,” said Larsen, whose country has donated 95.8% of the €4.3 million needed to fund the program. The other donors are Iceland and Liechtenstein.

Note: Brussels and the IMF have refused to do what Norway does. They have also refused to let the elected Greek government take care of its own people, without first asking permission to do so. It’s an insane situation, if you ask me. And I don’t see why the Greeks would stand for it any longer. If they vote to leave the eurozone, and perhaps the EU, they will have a hard time for a while, for sure, and it will be made much harder by the Troika, simply out of spite.

But they would face an at least equally hard time if they choose to stay inside the shackles Brussels and Berlin want to lock them in. The EU is supposed to be made up of independent nations. And while it’s certainly true that that is perhaps its fatal flaw, trying to take away that status from the Greeks will drive them away, and warn other countries as well that they could be next in line for the same shackles.

We’re looking at economic warfare here, and there can be no doubt that it will end with only losers on all sides. Unless Merkel wakes up and smells the roses.

Sep 292014
 
 September 29, 2014  Posted by at 10:59 pm Finance Tagged with: , , ,  14 Responses »


W.H. Jackson Rice Creek near Brown’s Landing, Putnam County, FL 1890

Something tells me I make get into trouble with my Czech and Slovak friends – and readers – over this, but I was still struck by the following interview with former Czech prime minister and president Václav Klaus. I know he’s not uncontroversial, hence the anticipated ‘trouble’.

What Mr. Klaus says in this interview with the Daily Spectator’s Neil Clark is so clear and correct and to the point and glaringly obvious on what is wrong with Europe these days, that his words provide an overriding sense of remembering something that was never there, of what we’ve been missing for years now from leading European politicians. And then we can, and should, wonder why that is, why that sanity has gone MIA.

Europe, or rather Brussels, has become a political-religious cult that tolerates no doubt and no discussion. Or, as Klaus says: “The EU is a post-democratic and post-political system.” . At present, there are no politicians in any of the 28(!) EU member nations, other than your right wing Marine Le Pens and Farages, and your non-aligned Beppe Grillos, who dare utter even one serious word of criticism of the grand EU project. The EU is good, and more EU is better.

And that’s all you need to know, that epitomizes precisely what’s so deeply wrong with the project, why it should be halted before things get even worse and even more people fall victim to the grandiose illusions of what has collapsed into nothing but yet another ordinary power game. That is, there is no dialogue left, it’s been utterly stifled, and that in turn is precisely why it will fail. Here’s Klaus:

NOTE: I’m not sure why the editors picked this title, the word monstrous is not in the text, and the URL tells me it was originally called Europe Needs Systemic Change. Which, admittedly, is less catchy.

Vaclav Klaus: The West’s Lies About Russia Are Monstrous

An interview with the former Czech president, possibly the West’s last truly outspoken leader

Václav Klaus has made a habit of saying things others shy away from saying, but it doesn’t seem to have done him much harm in the popularity stakes. Quite the opposite: the 73-year-old ardently Eurosceptic free-marketeer has legitimate claims to be regarded as the most successful ‘true blue’ conservative politician in Europe over the past 25 years. He was, after all, prime minister of the Czech Republic from 1992 to 1998 and then his country’s president for a further ten years, from 2003 to 2013.

[..] What effect does Klaus think a British referendum on EU membership — and the prospect of a UK withdrawal — might have for the Continent?

‘It would send a strong signal. I was very angry, even in the communist era, looking at Britain from the outside, from behind the Iron Curtain, that Britain decided to leave EFTA to join the EEC in the early 1970s.’

It was a Conservative prime minister, Edward Heath, who took that momentous step. What, I wonder, does Klaus think of the present Conservative leader’s line on Europe?

‘I have met Mr Cameron several times and I am not so sure about his credentials on the EU. I understand he must somehow reflect the division in the whole country and in his party, but nevertheless I don’t think that in a secret ballot in a referendum that he would vote yes [for Britain to remain in the EU] — but this is only my guesstimate.’

Listen to Klaus in full flow on the absurdities of the EU and it’s hard to think why any sane individual — on left or right — would want their country to stay in it.

‘A few days ago I studied the names of the EU commissioners under Mr Juncker, and their portfolios. We in my country say that 16 is already too high for having meaningful portfolios. But the EU now has 28, more than in any country in our part of the world. If you look at the names of those portfolios, I really don’t believe my eyes.

The former Estonian prime minister is a commissioner for digital markets. As an economist I really don’t know what the term “digital markets” means. Plus there is another, a German politician, Günther Oettinger, who is the commissioner for “digital economy and society”. We would laugh in the communist era to have such names for the members of our cabinet. I can’t imagine what these commissioners are doing.’

I put it to Klaus that in the bloated and bureaucratic EU economic model, we have the worst of all worlds — one which pleases neither genuine socialists, nor Thatcherite free-marketers, and he readily agrees. ‘What we have in Europe now is not the German Soziale Marktwirtschaft — the social market economy — but the German model deteriorated by another adjective, “ecological”.’

‘I started my political career after the fall of communism with a well-known slogan: “I want to introduce markets without adjectives.” There was a big fight in the country about this phrase. They said, “Klaus wants to introduce markets without social policy.” “No,” I said. “There can be a social policy, but the slogan means a market economy with an additional social policy and not a social market.”The sequence of the words is all important. At present we are going deeper and deeper and deeper into the ecological and social market economy.’

Whatever we decide to call the current system, he adds, it clearly isn’t working for Europe.

‘I am really shocked to see leading EU and European politicians pretending that everything is OK, which is ridiculous and funny,’ Klaus says. ‘I recently read an article by a well-known German economist, Professor Sinn, who has studied the situation in Italy. He presented statistical data which showed that GDP in Italy has declined by 9% since 2000. It’s unimaginable! I don’t think communist Czechoslovakia would have survived such a long-term decline. At the same time, industrial output declined in the same period by 25%! One quarter of the economy simply disappeared.’

Klaus believes the EU is beyond reform and has called for it to be replaced with an ‘Organisation of European States’ — a simple free trade association which would not pursue political integration. He recalls his own experience at the forefront of Czechoslovakia’s Velvet Revolution in 1989.

‘When we started to change my country we quite deliberately did not use the term “reform” — we used the word “transformation”, because we wanted a systemic change. Such a systemic change is needed in Europe today.’

It’s not just on the economy that Europe has got it wrong, says Klaus. He doesn’t agree with the western elite’s current hostility towards Russia, which he believes is based on a false and outdated view of the country.

‘I remember one person in our country who at one moment was minister of foreign affairs, telling me that he hated communism so much that he was not even able to read Dostoevsky. I have remembered that statement for decades and I am afraid that the current propaganda against Russia is based on a similar argument and way of thinking. I spent most of my life in a communist Czechoslovakia under Soviet domination.

But I differentiate between the Soviet Union and Russia. Those who are not able to understand the difference are simply not looking with open eyes. I always argue with my American and British friends that although the political system in Russia is different from the system in our countries and we wouldn’t be happy to live in such a system, to compare the current Russia with Leonid Brezhnev’s Soviet Union is stupid.’ ‘The US/EU propaganda against Russia is really ridiculous and I can’t accept it.’

Klaus wants to transfer other democratic decision-making powers back to the nation states.

‘I’m not just criticising the EU arrangements — at the same time I’m very critical of global governance and the shift to transnationalism. A week ago I was in Hong Kong and I criticised the naive opening up of countries without keeping or maintaining the anchoring of the nation state. Doing this leads either to anarchy, or to global governance.

My vision for Europe is a Europe of sovereign nation states, definitely. But we have already gone well beyond simply economic integration.

The EU is a post-democratic and post-political system.’

Klaus has spent his political career standing up for sovereignty and rejecting the dominant orthodoxies of the day. Unlike other leaders in the former Soviet bloc countries, he did not feel inhibited about criticising western policies when the Berlin Wall came down. He was one of the few to oppose the Clinton/Blair ‘humanitarian’ bombardment of Yugoslavia in 1999 (he was also strongly critical of the Iraq war).

Yet he feels the freedom to hold — and express — ‘unfashionable’ views in the West is now under increasing threat.

‘If you ask me whether I think liberty is under huge attack in Europe now, I would say yes. I feel repressed by not being allowed to express my views. I have permanent troubles with this. Suddenly I have discovered, for the first time in 20 years, having been invited to be a keynote speaker at a conference, that the organisers find out I have reservations about the EU, about same-sex marriages, about the Ukraine crisis, and they say, “We are very sorry, we have already found a different keynote speaker, thank you very much.” This is something I had experienced in the communist era but not in so-called free Europe. Only a very narrow range of opinions is now considered politically correct.’

It’s to fight this worrying trend that Klaus has decided to launch a new project. ‘I am planning, if we can get the money and people together, to start a new quarterly journal in 2015 called Europe and Liberty.’

It’s hard not to wish him well. In the not too distant past, Europe did have leaders who had clear and distinct visions: on the left, the likes of Sweden’s Olof Palme and Austria’s Bruno Kreisky; on the right, de Gaulle and Margaret Thatcher. You could agree or disagree but you could never say you didn’t know what they believed in, or that the views they held were not sincere. But they’ve been replaced by a generation of bland, uninspiring, consistently ‘on-message’ politicians.

Václav Klaus is different, a throwback to the days when our leaders did stand for something and weren’t afraid to speak their minds. Let’s hope he does not turn out to be Europe’s last conviction politician.

Fisher: Fed To Release ‘Some Data That Will Knock Your Socks Off’ (Bloomberg)

The Federal Reserve mustn’t “fall behind the curve” as it weighs when to start raising interest rates, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said, citing strengthening U.S. growth and building wage-price pressures. Fisher, a vocal advocate for tighter monetary policy to protect against inflation, also said today that two soon-to-be-released economic reports from his Fed district would “knock your socks off.” “I don’t want to fall behind the curve here,” Fisher said in a Fox News interview. “I think we could suddenly get a patch of high growth, see some wage-price inflation, and that is when you start to worry.” Fisher dissented on Sept. 17 at the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, when the Fed retained a pledge to keep rates near zero for a “considerable time” after its asset purchases halt at the end of next month.

He called U.S. second-quarter growth “uber strong,” referring to the upward revision last week to an annualized rate of 4.6% from 4.2% previously estimated, and said history had shown that wage pressures could accelerate when unemployment got below current levels of 6.1%. In addition, Fisher said surveys of wage-price pressures in the Dallas Fed’s district, which includes Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico, were the highest since before the recession, and other indictors were also buoyant. “We’re going to be releasing some data on Monday and Tuesday, our new surveys, that I think will just knock your socks off,” he said.

Read more …

Morgan Stanley Warns On Asian Debt Shock As Dollar Soars (AEP)

Debt ratios in developing Asia have surpassed extremes seen just before the East Asian financial crisis blew up in the late 1990s and companies have borrowed unprecedented sums in dollars, leaving the region highly vulnerable to US monetary tightening. Morgan Stanley said foreign debt in emerging Asia has soared from $300bn to $2.5 trillion over the last decade, creating the risk of a currency shock as the dollar surges to a four-year high and threatens to smash through key technical resistance. “High dollar liabilities do not bode well for emerging markets. In Asia (excluding Japan), the credit-to-GDP gap has reached levels higher than 1997,” it said. The US bank warned clients that local lenders in Asia have relied increasingly on the wholesale capital markets – a little like Northern Rock before 2007 – allowing them to expand credit faster than deposit growth. This leaves them exposed if liquidity dries up.

Asia’s credit-to-GDP gap measures how far loan expansion has pulled ahead of the underlying trend growth of the economy. It peaked at 10pc in 1997. This time a flood of cheap money from Western central banks and the Chinese authorities has pushed it to 15pc, clear evidence of credit exhaustion as productivity stalls and the region’s economic model looses steam. The bank’s currency team said the region could be hit on two fronts at once: a credit squeeze as rising US rates push up borrowing costs across the world, combined with an exchange rate squeeze on “short” dollar positions. The response to one complicates the other. Morgan Stanley’s technical analysts say the dollar is poised to break its thirty-year downtrend as the Fed turns hawkish. It expects the dollar index – a broad gauge of the dollar exchange rate — to surge towards 92 by next year if it breaks through resistance at 87. Such a move would be comparable to the global dollar shock that caused such strains twenty years ago.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned last week that the area should brace for “tighter liquidity” and possible “capital outflows” as the US ends quantitative easing in October. “While the region’s bond markets have been calm in 2014, the risks are rising, including earlier than expected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,” it said. The Fed was buying $85bn of bonds each month as recently as January. A fall to zero amounts to a major shift in global financial dynamics even before rates rise. The ADB said in its Bond Monitor that emerging Asia issued a record $1.1 trillion of local currency bonds in the second quarter of 2014, pushing the total stock to $7.9 trillion. Most debt is at maturities below thee years, creating roll-over risk. This does not include $1.5 trillion of cross-border bank loans and over $1.2 trillion in foreign currency bonds on latest estimates, mostly in dollars and owed by companies.

Read more …

Put Everything In Goldman Sachs Because These Guys Can Do What They Want (ZH)

When we first covered the Carmen Segarra lawsuit alleging the capture of the NY Fed by Goldman Sachs back in October 2013, we didn’t have much hope for justice to get done. We said that “while her allegations may be non-definitive, and her wrongful termination suit is ultimately dropped, there is hope this opens up an inquiry into the close relationship between Goldman and the NY Fed. Alas, since the judicial branch is also under the control of the two abovementioned entities, we very much doubt it.” Sure enough, the lawsuit was dropped (and no inquiry was opened) but not before it became clear that the very judge in charge of the case, U.S. District Judge Ronnie Abrams, was herself conflicted, after it was revealed that her husband, Greg Andres, a partner at Davis Polk & Wardwell, was representing Goldman in an advisory capacity.

Curiously, before she assumed her current office in March 2013, back in 2008 Abrams returned to Davis Polk herself as Special Counsel for Pro Bono. She had previously worked at the firm from 1994 to 1998. As a result of this fiasco, some wondered just how far do Goldman’s tentacles stretch not only at the money-printing (i.e., NY Fed) level, not only at the legislative level, but at the judicial as well. And then, on Friday, the Segarra case against the Federal Reserve branch of Goldman Sachs got a second wind, when as a result of another disclosure, ProPublica revealed “How Goldman Controls The New York Fed in 47.5 Hours Of “The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes.” That is to say, nothing new was revealed per se, because as anyone who has read this website for the past 6 years knows just how vast Goldman’s network is not only at the Fed, but in that all important other continent too, Europe.

But before we put this topic to bed, here is Raúl Ilargi Meijer explaining why “The US Has No Banking Regulation, And It Doesn’t Want Any”

Read more …

Kiwi Intervention Drives Australian Dollar Down (SMH)

The Australian dollar fell close to a four-year low on Monday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand confirmed it had intervened in currency markets last month. The local currency dropped as far as US86.84¢ in late trade after coming under pressure around midday when the RBNZ announced it sold a net $NZ521 million in August, the biggest sale since July 2007 Monday’s fall extended this month’s hefty sell-off to 7.25 per cent and took the Aussie to its lowest since January when it dropped to US86.60¢. The last time the currency traded below that level was in July 2010. The New Zealand dollar was hit even harder on Monday, slumping as much as 2 per cent to US77.09¢ – a one-year low – before part-way recovering to $US74.54¢. The Australian dollar was quick to follow the Kiwi down, but it was not as severely hit.

“The argument that the New Zealand dollar is overvalued, which the RBNZ has done and used it to justify its intervention, is very much the same case in Australia. It’s driven by a commodity price story,” RBS Morgans currency strategist Gregg Gibbs said. “[The strength of the greenback] has been the story in currency markets over the last month. You could argue that the RBNZ is coming in at a time of dollar strength to help get the wind behind their sails in getting the Kiwi lower and that certainly has helped.” There is no economic data on the calendar for Australia on Monday. Private sector credit is scheduled for release on Tuesday, retail sales on Wednesday and building approvals on Thursday. Both the Aussie and the New Zealand dollar came under pressure on Thursday when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Graeme Wheeler released an unscheduled statement saying the Kiwi’s strength was “unjustified and unsustainable”.

Read more …

Greenberg Team to Grill Bernanke, Geithner on AIG Bailout (Bloomberg)

In Maurice “Hank” Greenberg’s telling, the $182 billion taxpayer bailout that saved American International Group (AIG) and perhaps all of Wall Street during the 2008 financial collapse was a government rip-off. It trampled the rights of shareholders, denying them more favorable terms offered to banks and companies that foundered during the meltdown, according to Greenberg, who built AIG into the world’s biggest insurer before leaving in 2005. Greenberg’s Starr International Co., AIG’s largest shareholder when the financial crisis struck, sued the government, calling its assumption of 80% of the insurer’s stock an unconstitutional “taking” of property that requires at least $25 billion in compensation. A trial of his claims begins today in Washington, where David Boies, Greenberg’s famed litigator, will question the architects of the bailout, including Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner.

“I think they’re going to lose,” Marcel Kahan, a New York University law professor who specializes in corporate finance and governance, said of Greenberg and Boies. “I think they realize they’re going to lose. But you never know what’s going to happen.” The complaint by Starr International, Greenberg’s Swiss-based investment company, doesn’t question the necessity of a rescue that began under Republican President George W. Bush and continued under Democrat Barack Obama. Rather, Starr claims AIG was singled out for punitive treatment that violated shareholders’ constitutional rights to due process and just compensation for their property. While Greenberg faces long odds of winning, he could succeed in putting the bailout on trial, a potential payback for the mistreatment he claims in his suit, Kahan said. “If you can depose Obama’s former Treasury secretary and high-level politicians, God knows what you will uncover that would be embarrassing for the Obama administration,” he said.

Read more …

Bill Black: Eric Holder Struck Our Every Time, Never Even Took A Swing (TRNN)

Eric Holder has surprised me. I always predicted that he would at least find one token case to prosecute some bank senior executive for crimes that led to the creation of the financial crisis and the global Great Recession. He’s actually going to leave without even a token conviction, or even a token effort at convicting. So, in baseball terms, he struck out every time, batting 0.000, but he actually never took a swing. So he was called out on strikes looking, as we would say in baseball. And I couldn’t believe that he would leave without at least having one attempted prosecution against these folks. So he hasn’t done the most–he never did the most elementary things required to succeed. He never reestablished the criminal referral process, which is from the banking regulatory agencies, who are the only ones who are going to do widescale criminal referrals against bank CEOs, because, of course, banks won’t make criminal referrals against their own CEOs.

Holder could have reestablished that criminal referral process in a single email on the first day in office to his counterparts in the banking regulatory agencies, and he’s going to leave never having attempted to do so. On top of that, if you’re not going to have criminal referrals from the agencies, the only other conceivable way that you’re going to learn about elite criminal misconduct of this kind is through whistleblowers. And as you mentioned, this administration, and Eric Holder in particular, are known for the viciousness of their war against whistleblowers. What the public doesn’t know – and it doesn’t know because of Eric Holder – is that in the three biggest cases involving banks – again, none of them, not a single prosecution of the elite bankers that drove this crisis–all three of those cases, against Citicorp, against JPMorgan, and against Bank of America, were made possible by whistleblowers.

Eric Holder was the czar at the Department of Justice press conferences in each of these three cases, and he and the Justice Department officials, the senior Justice Department officials, at those press conferences, never mentioned the role of the whistleblowers–never praised the whistleblowers and never used those press conferences as a forum for asking whistleblowers to come forward. And so your viewers should take a look at the Frontline special on this, where the Frontline producers made clear that as soon as word got out that they were investigating the area, dozens of whistleblowers came forward, and each of them had the same story: the Department of Justice had never contacted them.

Read more …

While ECB Struggles, Fed Sees Recovery (Reuters)

On one side of the Atlantic they’re trying to refill the punchbowl. On the other they’re getting ready to take it away. This week, investors may get a clearer idea why. The European Central Bank will spell out on Thursday its latest attempt to steer the euro zone away from the prospect of damaging deflation, following the latest snapshot of consumer price pressures on Tuesday. U.S. jobs numbers on Friday will probably confirm that the fast-recovering American economy has reached the point where the Federal Reserve can finally halt its massive bond-buying stimulus. The contrast between the U.S. and euro zone economies has grown increasingly stark, adding to the pressure on the ECB and European leaders to revive growth in their corner of the world.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew last week laid bare Washington’s long-standing frustrations with the reluctance of European governments to increase public spending. The risk of the euro zone sliding into deflation and deeper stagnation is adding to the drag on the global economy from a slowdown in China, where authorities are trying to rein in lending, and concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But instead of fiscal action by European governments, it is action by the ECB that is the most likely spur for the region. After surprising markets with an interest rate cut at its September meeting and trying to get banks to take cheap loans to boost lending, the ECB on Thursday is due to give details of its plan to unblock corporate credit by buying repackaged loans.

Read more …

Political Reticence Blunts ECB’s Asset Purchase Plan (FT)

The European Central Bank will this week unveil details of its plan to save the eurozone from economic stagnation by buying hundreds of billions of euros-worth of private-sector assets. But one of the most crucial questions surrounding the purchases of bundles of loans, known as asset-backed securities, looks set to remain unanswered for some time. The governing council will meet in Naples, where it is expected on Thursday to reveal which asset-backed securities and covered bonds the central bank plans to buy to revive growth and boost inflation. Analysts say inflation is likely to have fallen to a five-year low this month. The purchases will work in tandem with the central bank’s offers of cheap four-year loans, under what it dubs its targeted longer term refinancing operations, to bloat its balance sheet by as much as €1tn between now and the end of 2016.

But one of the most vital pieces of information about the programme will almost certainly be missing. Whether the ECB can buy the riskier parts of securitisations, the so-called mezzanine tranches, is up to governments. With the new European Commission not yet in place, eurozone finance ministers are unlikely to discuss the issue until the end of October, with a decision weeks later. The early indications are that Germany and France will not support the plan. The ECB’s president, Mario Draghi, said earlier this month that the central bank would buy the safest slices of securitisations, known as senior tranches. But the ECB is cautious of taking too much risk on to the central bank’s balance sheet. To avoid that, Mr Draghi said the ECB would buy the mezzanine tranches only if governments would guarantee any losses.

Read more …

Quiet Build-Up of Greek Private Bad Debt Casts Long Shadow (Bloomberg)

To Aristides Belles, it’s clear what’s blocking Greece’s recovery: a quiet build-up of about €164 billion ($208 billion) in private bad debts. “The inability of Greek companies to repay their loans to banks and to the state is clearly holding back Greece’s return to growth,” said the chief executive officer of Athens-based Nireus Aquaculture, a producer of sea bream, sea bass and processed fish. “It’s more necessary than ever for all parties involved – banks, corporates and the state – to agree on an arrangement.” As Greece and its euro-area creditors meet tomorrow to review its progress ahead of another round of talks on repayment terms for its public debt, a less-visible crisis is looming on another front: bad debts of households and companies. The borrowings, amounting to about 90% of Greece’s gross domestic product, are weighing on the country’s hopes of recovering from the steepest and longest recession on record.

Non-performing loans at Greece’s banks have reached almost €80 billion, according to the country’s Growth and Competitiveness Minister Nikolaos Dendias. To top that, Greek households and corporations had overdue taxes of €69.2 billion in August, data from the public revenue secretariat show. Also, “collectible” social arrears to pension funds exceed €14.5 billion, according to labor ministry figures. “Some of this debt can never be recovered and should be written off,” said Panos Tsakloglou, a professor at the Athens University of Economics and Business who was Greece’s representative in the working group of senior euro-area finance ministry officials until June. Although Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis expects Greece to return to growth in the third quarter this year, the bad debt threatens to curb new lending needed to stimulate the economy.

Read more …

Why Peripheral Eurozone Debt Is Toast (Tavares)

Can market forces prevail in the Eurozone? With another round of central bank intervention coming four plus years after the start of the Eurozone debt crisis, this is a question worth considering, at a time when the Southern Eurozone members – Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, which collectively account for over 30% of the GDP of the early adopters of the Euro as a whole – continue to struggle. This is a complex topic for sure, but a simple economic indicator can be used to help frame the situation. The Real Effective Exchange Rate, or “REER”, is a weighted average of a country’s currency relative to an index or basket of other major currencies adjusted for the effects of inflation. A country with higher inflation will seek to devalue its currency to maintain competitiveness in relation to its trading partners (the reverse also applies of course, but these days nobody seems to want a strong currency). The REER therefore provides a gauge of that country’s competitiveness in foreign markets.

Under a fixed foreign exchange regime, policy options are much more limited. A Eurozone member can become much less competitive relative to another member with a lower inflation rate. Stated differently, its REER will increase in that situation. This dynamic provides an insight as to how the Southern European countries got into trouble in the first place, and some of the challenges associated with its resolution. The oil shocks of the 1970s had very damaging effects in the southern contingent of the Eurozone, with inflation rates skyrocketing. Devaluations were therefore a necessity to regain competitiveness, although these also provided an inflationary feedback loop. In contrast Germany, and to a lesser degree France, more or less kept inflation under control during this turbulent period.


Figure 1: Historical CPI Inflation in Selected Eurozone Countries, 1965-2001 Source: https://www.inflation.eu

It is important to understand this context, as these economies evolved out of a system that systematically used currency devaluation as a policy tool for many years. In the 1980s, Portugal, Greece and Spain formally joined the European Community, having just transitioned to a democratic system in the prior decade. A program to promote economic convergence with the European “core” was then implemented. This included the establishment of trading bands with other European currencies in order to avoid wild swings and competitive devaluations between trading partners, as well as facilitate greater economic integration going forward.

Read more …

The Ingredients of a Market Crash (John Hussman)

My sense is that a great many speculators are simultaneously imagining some clear exit signal, or the ability to act on some “tight stop” now that the primary psychological driver of speculation – Federal Reserve expansion of quantitative easing – is coming to a close. Recall 1929, 1937, 1973, 1987, 2001, and 2008. History teaches that the market doesn’t offer executable opportunities for an entire speculative crowd to exit with paper profits intact. Hence what we call the Exit Rule for Bubbles: you only get out if you panic before everyone else does.

Meanwhile, with European Central Bank assets no greater than they were in 2008, and more fiscally stable European countries quite unwilling to finance the deficits of unstable ones, the ECB has far more barriers to sustained large-scale action than Draghi’s words reveal. Moreover, to the extent that the ECB intends to buy asset-backed securities (ABS), which have a relatively small market in Europe, the primary effect (much like the mortgage bubble in the U.S.) will be to encourage the creation of very complex, financially engineered, and ultimately really junky ABS securities that can be foisted on the public balance sheet. Watch. In any event, even if such monetary interventions continue indefinitely, I have no doubt that we’ll have the opportunity to respond more constructively at points where we don’t observe upward pressure on risk-premiums and extensive deterioration in market internals.

I should be clear that market peaks often go through several months of top formation, so the near-term remains uncertain. Still, it has become urgent for investors to carefully examine all risk exposures. When extreme valuations on historically reliable measures, lopsided bullishness, and compressed risk premiums are joined by deteriorating market internals, widening credit spreads, and a breakdown in trend uniformity, it’s advisable to make certain that the long position you have is the long position you want over the remainder of the market cycle. As conditions stand, we currently observe the ingredients of a market crash.

Read more …

Billions Fly Out The Door At Pimco (WSJ)

Pacific Investment Management Co. suffered roughly $10 billion of withdrawals following the Friday departure of co-founder Bill Gross, a person familiar with the matter said, a sign of how quickly Mr. Gross’s surprise move is reshaping the bond-investing landscape. Pimco is bracing for more outflows on the heels of the veteran investor’s departure after months of internal strife over his leadership. At the same time, some managers say they remain committed to the firm. Some within the Newport Beach, Calif., investment firm are projecting it will lose at least $100 billion or more in assets due to withdrawals, the person familiar with the matter said, and some analysts peg the estimate higher. Pimco Chief Executive Douglas Hodge said in a statement his firm “manages nearly $2 trillion in assets, and we are confident that the vast majority of our clients will continue to stand with us.”

Pimco executives are confident the firm can thrive, according to interviews with executives and people familiar with the matter, partly because the firm has had good performance in many of its funds and now has more money to retain its stars and lure new talent. The flight of $100 billion, more assets than many mutual funds hold, could roil some parts of the bond market with limited trading activity, experts say, as Pimco sells assets to meet investor redemptions and other managers put new money to work. Rivals are trying to position themselves to attract some of the Pimco outflows. “There is a good chance that Pimco will lose its dominant position as a fixed-income manager as assets find their way into other investment managers, thereby leveling the playing field in fixed income,’’ said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading in New York at Deutsche Bank’s private wealth-management unit.

Read more …

Yellen Aims to Mimic Greenspan on Jobs, Avoid Misfire on Bubbles (Bloomberg)

Janet Yellen looks to be taking one page out of Alan Greenspan’s playbook while tearing up another as she plots monetary strategy for 2015 and beyond. The Federal Reserve chair and her colleagues signaled this month they would be willing to push unemployment below its so-called natural rate — a feat Greenspan as chairman managed in the late 1990s without fanning much inflation. Yellen showed less desire to pursue her predecessor’s “measured” approach to raising interest rates in the mid-2000s, suggesting his strategy may have fostered complacency that made a small contribution to the financial crisis. The late 1990s “was a very good period for the U.S. economy, and Greenspan made the correct call on monetary policy,” said Michael Gapen, a former Fed official who is now senior U.S. economist for Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. On the other hand, “there is a general consensus the way they did policy wasn’t right” in the run-up to the housing bust that preceded the 2007-2009 recession.

Yellen stressed to reporters on Sept. 17 that the Fed’s actions would depend on how the economy evolves. “There is no mechanical” approach to carrying out policy, she said, adding that “many people” think the Fed relied too much on a lock-step strategy in the mid-2000s. James Bullard, St. Louis Fed president, is among those who argue that approach led to complacency about the Fed’s intentions and too much risk-taking by investors and home buyers. “The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle was way too mechanical,” he said Sept. 23. “There was so much predictability there that I think it did foster asset-price bubbles.” Yellen’s strategy has its risks. A persistently easy monetary policy designed to push unemployment down could unleash unexpectedly strong wage and price pressures, leading to what former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer called the “nightmare” scenario of rising inflation expectations. It could also lead to distortions in financial markets — even without adoption of Greenspan’s lock-step rate increases — a danger some Fed officials warned about in a paper this month.

Read more …

Interest On Debt Grows Without Rain (Steen Jakobsen)

[‘Interest on debt grows without rain’ – Yiddish proverb] This proverb explains most of what goes on in policy circles these days. We are now watching Extend-and-Pretend, Episode VI: Promises for improvement amid ever growing debt levels. In brief, we’re still working with the same dog-eared script we were introduced to all of five years ago, when markets had stabilised in the wake of the financial crisis: maintain sufficiently low interest rates to service the debt burden. In other words, pretend to have a credible plan, but never address the structural problems and simply buy more time. But while we were able to get away with this theme for an awfully long time, the dynamic is now changing as the risk of low inflation (and even deflation) is a brick wall for the extend-and-pretend meme. Yes, interest does grow without rain, and the cost of maintaining and servicing debt grows especially fast in a deflationary regime. Mads Koefoed, Saxo Bank’s macro economist, projects US growth at around 2.0% for all of 2014.

That will be the sixth year with US growth near 2.0%, so despite lower unemployment and a record high S&P500, the economy has a hard time escaping that 2.0% level. Any talk of higher interest rates is hard to take seriously when US growth is going nowhere and world growth is considerable weaker than was expected back in January (or as recently as July, for that matter). It seems everyone has forgotten that even the US is a part of the global economy. The fourth quarter is always the most politically interesting time of year. Countries need to get their new budgets in order. The EU, IMF and World Bank will need to pretend they agree or accept the weaker data, which has to mean bigger deficits. It’s a tiresome exercise to watch denial-in-action as EU governments and other policymakers try to make something so obviously unpalatable go down easy in their internal reporting.

Read more …

Hong Kong Protesters Defy Tear Gas, Batons To Renew Democracy Call (Reuters)

Hong Kong democracy protesters defied volleys of tear gas and police baton-charges to stand firm in the center of the global financial hub on Monday, one of the biggest political challenges for Beijing since the Tiananmen Square crackdown 25 years ago. The unrest, the worst in Hong Kong since China resumed its rule over the former British colony in 1997, sent white clouds of gas wafting among the world’s most valuable office towers and shopping malls as the city prepared to open for business. Televised scenes of the chaos also made a deep impression on viewers outside Hong Kong, especially in Taiwan, which has full democracy but is considered by China as a renegade province which must one day be reunited with the Communist-run mainland.

The protests, led mostly by young tech-savvy students who have grown up with freedoms not enjoyed in mainland China, represent one of the biggest threats confronted by Beijing’s Communist Party leadership since it launched a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy student protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989. “Taiwan people are watching this closely,” Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou said in an interview with Al Jazeera. China rules Hong Kong under a “one country, two systems” formula which accords the territory limited democracy. The protesters are demanding Beijing give them full democracy, with the freedom to nominate election candidates, but China recently announced that it would not go that far.

Organizers said as many as 80,000 people thronged the streets over the weekend, after the protests flared on Friday night. No independent estimate of crowd numbers was available. Banks in Hong Kong, including HSBC, Citigroup, Bank of China, Standard Chartered and DBS, temporarily shut some branches and advised staff to work from home or go to secondary branches. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the city’s de facto central bank, said it had activated business continuity plans, as had 17 banks affected by the protests. The HKMA said the city’s interbank markets and Currency Board mechanism, which maintains the exchange rate, would function normally on Monday. It said it stood ready to “inject liquidity into the banking system as and when necessary”.

Read more …

“How The Media Controls Britain” (Zero Hedge)

We have yet to read Owen Jones’ “The Establishment… And how they get away with it”, although Russell Brand’s take of the author has certainly piqued our interest: ”Owen Jones may have the face of a baby and the voice of George Formby but he is our generation’s Orwell and we must cherish him.” We do know, however, that the young author and Guardian columnist is one of those who are not afraid to think critically while accepting there is far more than meets the eye, and certainly than the controlled media would like revealed. To wit, from the book’s official blurb:

Behind our democracy lurks a powerful but unaccountable network of people who wield massive power and reap huge profits in the process. In exposing this shadowy and complex system that dominates our lives, Owen Jones sets out on a journey into the heart of our Establishment, from the lobbies of Westminster to the newsrooms, boardrooms and trading rooms of Fleet Street and the City. Exposing the revolving doors that link these worlds, and the vested interests that bind them together, Jones shows how, in claiming to work on our behalf, the people at the top are doing precisely the opposite. In fact, they represent the biggest threat to our democracy today – and it is time they were challenged.

Read more …

China’s One-Two Punch Could Hit Economic Growth (MarketWatch)

The strength of China’s long-term economic growth depends on whether it can accomplish two feats at the same time: purging corrupt officials while taking sweeping steps to restructure the economy.The risk? That the purge blunts the overhaul and the economy falters over time.A downturn in China would be a blow to the global economy, which counts on the Asian giant to suck in imports and provide opportunities for investment. That’s why the U.S., Europe and others in Asia are watching events in China so closely.China’s anticorruption drive began in late 2012 as a way to cleanse the ruling Communist Party and convince ordinary Chinese that the system isn’t rigged against them.

Investigators are targeting some of China’s most powerful officials and disciplining tens of thousands of lower-echelon officials who party investigators contend got used to padding their salaries. The worry now is that the headline-grabbing campaign could disrupt plans, launched the same year, to open the financial sector, reduce the role of bureaucrats, give rural residents more rights and limit the power of big state-owned firms, among other changes. A slowing of the economic overhaul would weaken growth prospects over the next decade, rather than strengthening them as Communist Party chief Xi Jinping intends.

One big problem: Mr. Xi must rely on bureaucrats across the country to enact the economic shifts, many of whom are being targeted in the corruption probe and fear what’s coming next.”Since publicly opposing reform is risky, officials will choose to drag their feet,” says Minxin Pei, a China specialist at Claremont McKenna College in California. He likens it to pilots following air-traffic rules to the letter and slowing the system to a crawl.Chinese officials describe the anticorruption push and economic overhaul as a one-two punch. First, frighten execs at state-owned firms and the bureaucrats who protect them. Then sock them with economic changes to clip their power. They will be too frightened to resist.

Read more …

Yuan-Euro Direct Trading Begins Tomorrow as China Promotes Usage (Bloomberg)

China will start direct trading between yuan and the euro tomorrow as the world’s second-largest economy seeks to spur global use of its currency. The move will lower transaction costs and boost use of yuan and the euro in bilateral trade and investment, the People’s Bank of China said today in a statement on its website. HSBC said separately it has received regulatory approval to be one of the first market makers when trading begins in China’s domestic market. The euro will become the 6th major currency to be exchangeable directly for yuan in Shanghai, joining the U.S., Australian and New Zealand dollars, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The European Central Bank is able to draw on a maximum 350 billion yuan ($57 billion) swap line from the PBOC under the terms of an agreement signed in October 2013. “It’s a fresh step forward in China’s yuan internationalization,” said Liu Dongliang, an analyst with China Merchants Bank. “However, the real impact on foreign exchange rates and companies may be limited as onshore trading volumes between yuan and non-dollars are still too small to gain real pricing power.”

Read more …

Russia Foreign Minister Calls For ‘Reset 2.0’ Of Relations With US (Guardian)

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has called for a “reset” with the United States, following statements by western leaders that their sanctions could be lifted if Russia works toward peace in Ukraine. In an interview with Russian Channel Five, Lavrov accused the west of setting off the Ukraine conflict in the pursuit of its own interests but also said Russia wanted to improve relations with the US. Western countries have imposed sanctions against Russia’s financial, oil and defence sectors over Moscow’s reported support for pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine. Russia responded in August by banning food imports from Europe and North America. “The main problem is that we’re absolutely interested in normalising these relations, but it wasn’t us who ruined them. And now we need what the Americans will probably call a ‘reset,’” Lavrov said. “Something else will probably be thought up, ‘reset number two’ or ‘reset 2.0.’”

Lavrov was referring to President Barack Obama’s initiative in 2009 to improve ties between the former cold war enemies, which started off on the wrong foot when then secretary of state Hillary Clinton presented Lavrov with a badge labeled “reset” that was misspelled in Russian to read “overload”. Any progress on improving relations was soon again set back by the US Magnitsky Act banning Russian officials implicated in the death of the whistleblower Sergei Magnitsky and Moscow’s retaliatory ban on adoptions by American families. Lavrov’s comments come amid talk that the western sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis could be softened or even lifted. Obama said last week US sanctions could be lifted if Russia “changes course” and stops its “aggression” in Ukraine, where it has been accused of providing men and weapons to rebels in the eastern part of the country.

Read more …

The Secret Weapon Of The Sheikhs To Open Oilfields To The World (Telegraph)

In response to Iran’s strategic grip over oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a new export route for crude from the Persian Gulf is growing on the coast of the Arabian Sea, with the potential to transform global energy markets. Giant tankers now queue in lines stretching for miles to load oil or refuel at Fujairah – a sleepy sheikhdom in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – after the government invested billions of dollars into building a giant oil pipeline across the rugged Hajar mountains, with the aim of ending the potential stranglehold that Iran could place on the nation’s exports of crude. The 21-mile-wide Hormuz channel handles a third of the world’s oil-tanker traffic and connects the Persian Gulf’s sheikhdoms to the Arabian Sea. Fears that Tehran could choke off exports shipped through it have been a concern weighing on oil markets for decades. In 2008, worries that Iran would blockade the strait helped to send oil prices skyrocketing to a record $147 per barrel, a level not achieved since.

But the opening of a 240-mile long, 48in-wide export pipeline two years ago, linking the UAE’s biggest oil fields with the Arabian Sea has alleviated these concerns and could now transform Fujairah from a quiet port used by ships to refuel into a global energy trans-shipment hub. “Fujairah is the only emirate that has significant access to the ocean, and it has been on our eye to utilise this strategic position and location as an export route,” Suhail Al-Mazrouei, minister of energy for the UAE told The Daily Telegraph, on the sidelines of an energy forum hosted by The Gulf Intelligence. “The infrastructure that Fujairah now has today and will have in the future makes it a major city and a major destination for the energy sector.” The logic of shifting more export capacity outside the Gulf is also catching on with other exporters in the region. Oman is planning to build a new multi-billion-dollar oil export hub at Ras Markaz, about 450 miles south of the UAE.

Although the sultanate already loads and stores its own crude from outside the Gulf, the Ras Markaz will provide it with enough capacity potentially to export oil from other countries in the region. In addition, the government of the UAE plans to invest billions of dollars to build the largest facilities to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the entire Middle East at Fujairah to help meet surging domestic demand for electricity and desalinated water. According to Mr Al-Mazrouie, Fujairah is the most strategically secure location in the emirates to build the new facilities. “We are going to import LNG and the UK is already importing LNG so that makes the people of the UAE and the UK concerned about the security of the same commodity. “It is the same when you are talking about the utilisation of energy as a whole. I think energy, whether in the UK or Germany or here, is everyone’s concern.

Read more …

Sep 082014
 
 September 8, 2014  Posted by at 7:24 pm Finance Tagged with: , ,  11 Responses »


Esther Bubley Greyhound bus at Washington Court House, Ohio Sep 1943

You know they’re desperate when they play the royal card and announce a new baby on the way. Britain, and especially Downing Street 10, got a huge scare last week when a poll showed the Scottish independence movement is now favorite to win the September 18 referendum. It’s not entirely clear, but I don’t think Cameron and his crew would be able to stay on if Scotland secedes from the UK.

So who would do the negotiations for what remains united under the Queen? That’s the first bit of confusion and mayhem I very much hope will turn into an absolute mess that will break the EU and the eurozone as they presently exist. Simply because something needs to be the catalyst that makes it happen.

Brussels has turned into a convoluted monstrosity that makes far too many victims just to allow a few handfuls of people with extreme and contorted power dreams to ejaculate. The EU is way past its best before date, and the rot and decay can only possibly lead to more victims if it isn’t halted.

It was a nice idea 60-odd years ago, but it’s fallen into the hands of the wrong cabal, and when you look at how things have evolved during that time, it’s not that hard to recognize the entire set-up was doomed to lead where it has. There was never any positive feedback built into the system, i.e. Brussels was handed more power all the time as time went by, until it became more powerful than its member states (with the possible exception of Bonn/Berlin).

It has become self-propelling, for the simple reason that it was built that way. An ideal opportunity for psychopathic schemers to live out the fantasies such people have, and which they will live to the fullest unless they’re kept in check. The same thing that’s painfully evident in places like Washington or Beijing.

Only with even less democracy. Voters in European nations may still have a token influence through their national ballot boxes, but the big decisions are made in Brussels. And all the politicians they get to choose from, at least those in the parties that matter, all support the EU project, more often than not because they too dream of centralized power.

There is no longer a choice available to reject Brussels, or reject the Euro, or reject what either the ECB or the European Commission – both of which are extremely ‘light’ on democracy – dictate. That’s the heart of the European problem, and that’s what will finish it off. Only, if that last bit takes too long, it will cause a lot of additional damage throughout the EU.

It’s a project with its own demise built in. A good idea with a fatally defective architecture. As always, nobody notices in times of plenty and abundance. But when those proverbial ‘seven years’ have gone, people won’t want to belong to some larger block anymore; when the alleged advantage of the bigger unity has evaporated, people don’t want their decisions to be made by someone they don’t know and who doesn’t speak their language or know their culture.

But according to Brussels, and to all the national politicians who support the EU project, there is now no longer a way back. The euro can’t be undone, and neither can the EU. The narrative is that Brussels must, of necessity, absorb ever more power from national governments, and hence ever more power from the people they represent, and that’s exactly the way the entire monstrous project was constructed. Perhaps not intentionally, but still.

Point in case: the EU is set to announce new sanctions against Russia, still based on zero evidence about anything at all, and the best part is they seek to hurt the oil industry but not the gas industry, because they need the latter. And what’s going to keep Russia from saying if you want one you must take both? What would keep Moscow from closing its airspace to EU airlines and bankrupting a whole series of them? In Brussels, arrogance, hubris and stupidity are in a fierce battle for first place.

Scotland is the first EU region to try and break free from a larger entity, and, oh sweet irony, many of the pro-independence Scots will vote Yes because they like the EU so much (or at least more than the UK presently does). But let’s not let a bit of irony get in the way, shall we?

If only because a win for the Yes side has the potential to cause so much disruption it won’t matter what caused the disruption. The Yes side wants to be part of the CTA, which allows free flow of people between England and Scotland, no passports etc. But whether that’s acceptable to the EU, or the UK, is doubtful.

The Yes side wants to keep using the British pound, in a scheme they call sterlingization, and there are tons of questions there as well. Will the UK allow it, will the EU, can you be an EU member when you use someone else’s currency, can you be without having your own central bank, plenty of delightful conundrums that so far nobody has provided a conclusive answer for.

If and when Scotland votes for independence 10 days from now, the confusion and mayhem and anger and bitterness will be the only things deemed worth talking about in Albion. Royal baby or not. But the whole thing will be resolved at some point, not to everybody’s whole content, and not with every politician still in the seats they occupy today, but one thing’s for sure: it will be a breath of fresh air that Europe desperately needs.

Because if Scotland can do it, so can Catalunya, and the Basque, and Venice, and so many other regions that would rather decide about their own future than have some ‘higher power’ do it for them. As is their right as per the UN charter on self-determination.

The EU has become a straight-jacket that restricts the freedom of far too many people, and they’re going to break free. It’s only a matter of time. Of course it more likely that the UK will opt to leave the EU than for Scotland to be put out on the curb, but that’s fine by me: what’s important right now is that somebody starts rattling the cage, and starts calling out for freedom. It’s inevitable that it will take place, and the sooner that happens the better, because we don’t want violent unrest to erupt.

In yet another twist of irony, I am most likely to see my wish of an EU break-up fulfilled by someone I have grave doubts about: Marine Le Pen of the Front National in France. She called yesterday on President Hollande – and his 13% approval rating – to dissolve parliament, and she leads in all the polls. Le Pen would take France out of the EU in only a few simple steps, and that would be the end, since without France there is no EU.

It’s for the people in Greece, Italy, Spain etc. that this is the most crucial. Until the moment that their countries break free of the Brussels shackles, their economies will continue to suffer, and so will they.

Unemployment numbers are still at insane levels there, debt levels are, if possible, even crazier, and there’s no way out because they are forced to live in a sort of Germany by the olive trees. All their ‘leaders’ since the crisis hit have been EU happy technocrats, who talk of reforms until the cows come home but do thing to alleviate unemployment numbers, undoubtedly the biggest problem around.

My point is, we need something that will lead to the dissolution of the EU as it exists today. And then all parties involved can go back to the drawing board. Some form of European cooperation is of course fine, and can be very beneficial, but not the one there is today.

So come on Scotland, help make it happen. We’re counting on you guys.

New EU Sanctions to Stop Fundraising by 3 Russian Oil Giants (WSJ)

New European Union sanctions on Russia will expand the number of Russian companies unable to raise money in the bloc’s capital markets to include three major state-owned oil companies, according to documents seen by The Wall Street Journal. Under a modest expansion of sanctions introduced in late July, the three oil companies— Gazpromneft, the oil-production and refining subsidiary of OAO Gazprom, oil transportation company Transneft, and oil giant Rosneft—will be forbidden from raising funds of longer than 30 days’ maturity. Five state-controlled banks, including Sberbank and VTB Bank, already barred from raising funds for longer than 90 days under the July sanctions, will also have the maximum maturity cut to 30 days. The new sanctions are expected to be implemented Tuesday. They include for the first time a measure preventing the named companies from raising new bank loans in the EU of longer than 30 days’ maturity.

Three companies involved in military production—Oboronprom, United Aircraft Corp. and Uralvagonzavod—will also be barred from future EU fundraising. The sanctions will also bar new contracts for services needed for oil exploration and production in deep water, the Arctic or shale-oil projects. The restrictions will bar sales from the EU of so-called dual-use technologies—meaning they have both civil and military applications—to nine Russian companies providing services to the Russian military. The list includes electronic-optics company JSC Sirius, mechanical engineering company OJSC Stankoinstrument, and the small-arms manufacturer JSC Kalashnikov.

European leaders said late last week the new measures could be lifted if there were clear evidence that Moscow was helping forge a genuine political solution in Ukraine. According to an EU spokeswoman, that evidence would need to include permanent monitoring of the Russia-Ukrainian border, the withdrawal of illegal armed groups from Ukraine and of Russian forces illegally operating on Ukrainian territory. On Sunday, fighting in two Ukrainian cities called into question a cease-fire agreed to on Friday. The documents show the EU seeking to hit Russian oil companies, but leaving unscathed those involved in gas production and export, which are critical to many European countries’ energy supplies. They also make some exceptions for exports destined for the Russian space and civilian nuclear industries.

Read more …

Russia may close its airspace. Goodbye EU airlines.

Medvedev: New Sanctions Against Russia May Provoke ‘Asymmetric Response’ (RIA)

New Sanctions against Russia in energy or finance sectors could trigger an asymmetric response from Moscow, such as closing its airspace, Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told the Vedomosti newspaper in an interview released Monday. “It is them [the West], who should be asked whether there will be new sanctions. But if there are sanctions, linked with energy, [or] further restrictions on our finance sector, we will have to respond asymmetrically. For instance, [with] restrictions in transport area. We act on the premise of friendly relations with our partners, and this is why the sky above Russia is open for flights. But if we are restricted, we will have to answer,” Medvedev added.

The prime minister argued that certain Western airlines could go bankrupt in case they are banned to use Russia’s airspace. “But this is a bad option. I just would like our partners to realize it at a certain moment. Especially, [considering the fact] that the sanctions do not help to establish peace in Ukraine. They miss [beside the mark], and an absolute majority of the politicians understand it. There are just an inertness of thinking and, unfortunately, the will to use force in international affairs,” Medvedev stressed. Earlier, a number of European politicians told RIA Novosti that Brussels would introduce a new wave of sectoral sanctions against Russia on Monday. Late July, the European Union and the United States imposed restrictions against Russia’s oil and banking sector over Moscow’s stance in the Ukrainian internal conflict. In response, Russia banned certain food products importation from the Western nations, which introduced anti-Russian sanctions.

Read more …

Four NATO Allies Deny Ukraine Statement On Providing Arms (Reuters)

A senior aide to Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko said on Sunday that Kiev had agreed at the NATO summit in Wales on the provision of weapons and military advisers from five NATO member states, but four of the five swiftly denied any such deal had been reached. NATO officials have previously said the alliance will not send arms to non-member Ukraine, but have also said individual allies may do so if they wish. A NATO official contacted by Reuters on Sunday on the Lytsenko comment reiterated this policy. “At the NATO summit agreements were reached on the provision of military advisers and supplies of modern armaments from the United States, France, Italy, Poland and Norway,” Poroshenko aide Yuri Lytsenko said on his Facebook page. Lytsenko gave no further details. He may have made his comment for domestic political reasons to highlight the degree of NATO commitment to Ukraine and to its pro-Western president.

A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, denied that the United States had made such a pledge. The official told Reuters, “No U.S. offer of lethal assistance has been made to Ukraine.” Asked about Lytsenko’s comments, defence ministry officials in Italy, Poland and Norway also denied plans to provide arms. In France, an aide at the Elysee palace declined to comment. “This news is incorrect. Italy, along with other EU and NATO countries, is preparing a package of non-lethal military aid such as bullet-proof vests and helmets for Ukraine,” an Italian defence ministry official told Reuters. Norwegian Defence Ministry spokesman Lars Gjemble, speaking to the NTB news agency, said, “We’re participating with staff officers in two military exercises in Ukraine, but it’s not correct that we’re delivering weapons to Ukraine.”

Read more …

Fools.

US, Ukraine Start Black Sea Naval Exercises (Eurasianet)

United States-led, Ukraine-hosted naval exercises will start this week in the Black Sea, ahead of NATO exercises in Western Ukraine later this month. While both exercises are iterations of annual drills and so not directly in response to the events in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the fact that they’re going ahead is nevertheless a signal of U.S. support for Kiev. The naval exercises, Sea Breeze, are usually held in July but were put off until September this year. They’ll be led by the U.S. destroyer USS Ross and also include ships from Ukraine, Georgia, Romania, Turkey, Canada, and Spain.

One apparent concession to the heightened tension in the region this year: unlike in previous years, no U.S. or NATO ships will dock in Ukraine this time. “Much of the exercise will focus on maritime interdiction operations as a primary means to enhance maritime security,” announced U.S. European Command in a statement. “The other key components of the exercise focus on communications, search and rescue, force protection and navigation.” Ukraine’s navy was in a woeful state before the current crisis; since then its main base at Sevastopol was annexed by Russia, its commander defected to Russia, and many of its ships were seized by Russia. In that context, this sentence from the U.S. statement could be interpreted in various ways: “Leaders from Ukraine and the U.S., co-hosts for the 13th iteration of the exercise, share sentiments about the progress of both the exercise and maritime security in the Black Sea that have occurred since the exercise’s inception.”

One wonders about Ukrainian leaders’ sentiments about “progress” in Black Sea maritime security… No Russian official appears to have commented directly on the exercise, but RIA Novosti writes: “Sea Breeze exercises by NATO forces began in 1997, and have often been met with hostility by anti-NATO political forces in Ukraine. NATO has been flexing its muscles near the Russian border since Crimea’s reunification with Russia in March. Moscow has repeatedly expressed concern over Western pressure on Russia.” The exercises are scheduled for September 8-10

Read more …

Sheehan’s piece is as well-documented as it is frightening.

Sell Financial Stocks and Bonds: The Fed’s Illegal Seizure Of AIG (Sheehan)

Reserve Your Seats: On August 26, 2014, for what seems the fiftieth time, the U.S. Court of Federal Claims rejected the U.S. government’s attempt to extinguish Starr International Co. v. United States. Judge Thomas Wheeler said the case brought by Hank Greenberg’s AIG (specifically, Starr International Co., which owned 12.5% of the shares on September 15, 2008) will go to trial on September 29, 2014. Wheeler stated: “The complexity of the submissions and the factual disagreements strongly point to the need for a trial.” According to Reuters, “a U.S. Department of Justice spokeswoman declined to comment.” On the other hand, David Boies, the Attorney of Record from Boies, Schiller & Flexner, LLP, representing Starr International, did comment: “The decision speaks for itself.” Former AIG Chairman Hank Greenberg has sued the U.S. government for $25 billion as compensation for the shares owned by Starr International. According to Reuters, “The trial is expected to last six weeks.”)

The news sounds reassuring: “U.S. bank regulators plan to adopt rules on [September 3, 2014] forcing big banks to hold more assets that they could sell easily in a credit crunch, a requirement that is closely linked to the experience of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.” It is possible the rules will work. However, no formula will capture rising or falling confidence in a financial company at some future date. We are vectoring towards another 2008. Confidence, on the part government and Federal Reserve officials, financial institutions, and the public, are intertwined. When financial institutions are afraid to lend to each other liquid assets will be held for dear life.

There are two topics in store. First, changes to financial institution bankruptcy law may prompt a bank run. Second, depositions in Starr International Company, Inc. v. United States should awaken investors to our “policy makers” disintegration when we needed a leader. (It is significant when the bureaucratic meritocracy rose to positions of leadership, it changed its role to that of “policymakers.” That it did not and does not want to lead is the reason it is spent.) In the discussion about financial institution bankruptcy (topic number one), it is well to keep in mind consequences are magnified by topic number two. As a footnote, it is inconceivable the government and Fed models, such as those used to calculate the September 3, 2014, bank liquidity rules, include an exponential factor that kicks in when the combined worries of a Dodd-Frank “call” and a heavy-handed government rescue mission hit simultaneously. [..]

Given the cleavage from reason by our policy makers (one last, irresistible Fact: no one from AIG was allowed in the room during its nationalization), consider: (1) interests you may hold in financial institutions and (2) Paul Singer’s description of the now legal means to redistribute those interests. Financial firms are more leveraged than is generally understood. Sell their securities.

Read more …

And this is why.

Fed Seeks to Calm Congress Demand for More Oversight (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has tried to repair damaged relations with Congress during her first seven months in office. The fix-up isn’t going very well. Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee started the year promising a series of inquiries into the nation’s central bank. New legislation aimed at reducing the Fed’s discretion on monetary policy and bank supervision has been proposed. A bipartisan group of 15 House and Senate members sent a letter to the Fed, asking it to clarify how it would use its emergency lending authority in another crisis. The efforts signal growing discomfort with policy makers’ unusual reach in financial markets and their expanding regulatory powers.

The Fed is “moving into new territory,” said Representative William Huizenga, a Michigan Republican, whose exchange with Yellen at a July 16 hearing turned tense, as each briefly spoke over the other. “They don’t feel like they need to explain it to us.” Yellen has worked hard at reconciliation after relations soured under her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. His unprecedented actions during the financial crisis – including an $85 billion rescue of insurer AIG — raised concerns the central bank was growing too powerful while resisting scrutiny of its actions. She sat for more than five hours of testimony at her first semi-annual appearance before the House committee and has supported changes, at the request of Democrats, in the way the Fed handles enforcement actions.

Still, interviews with members of Congress and their current and former staff show the distrust that sprouted during the crisis has taken deep root, especially among Republicans, who could have a Senate majority after November’s mid-term elections. Some legislators say the Fed has confused its independence on monetary policy with independence from their oversight, an attitude they resent. Huizenga’s office said the Fed recently took six months to respond to questions on the Volcker Rule, which limits risky trading by banks. “Getting ignored on the legislative side and then being beaten about the head any time you want to question what they are doing – it’s an arrogance that comes out there that is stunning,” he said.

Read more …

Eurozone Faces Another Recession As Investor Confidence Plunges (Telegraph)

A key gauge of euro area confidence saw a “collapse” this month, as efforts to revive the currency bloc failed to excite investors. Falling to its lowest level in over a year, both components of the Sentix Investor Confidence index – assessing the current situation and investors’ six-month expectations – were both in negative territory. The headline reading dropped to 2.7 to -9.8 in September, while analysts had expected to see just a slip in confidence, to 2.0. Sebastian Wanke, senior analyst at Sentix, said that “this constellation signals a renewed recession for the eurozone”. Last Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) slashed three of its key interest rates, and announced plans to deploy a new stimulus package.

Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, unveiled a scheme to purchase asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage bonds, in an attempt to revive the flagging economy. Mr Wanke said that the reading “is all the more noteworthy as during Mr Draghi’s presidency the ECB has managed on several occasions to turn round investors’ economic expectations. Now, this does not seem to work”. Eurozone growth ground to a halt in the second quarter, statiscians confirmed on Friday. Meanwhile annual inflation remains well below the ECB’s target of just under 2pc, falling to a five-year low of 0.3pc in August. Frederik Ducrozet, of Crédit Agricole, questioned whether the Sentix reading pointed to a recession. He tweeted that the gauge was “a market-based indicator with little macro content”.

Read more …

What Would Independence Really Mean For Scotland’s Economy? (Guardian)

Alistair Darling seems to be a sucker for punishment. He was chancellor of the exchequer on the blackest day of the global financial crisis in the autumn of 2008, when the Royal Bank of Scotland was forced to tell the government that its cash machines would run out of money within three hours. Six years on, Darling has another exceptionally tough job: fronting the campaign seeking to prevent Scotland voting for independence on 18 September as the polls show support for his side slipping. In a faint echo of those turbulent days after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the City has woken up to the possibility that the Scots will decide to go it alone. Sunday’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times showing the first ever lead for yes – albeit at 51% to 49% – should clarify thinking further. The Bank of England has begun to draw up contingency plans to cope with the potential fallout from the end of a union that has lasted for more than 300 years.

On the estates of Glasgow, where Iain Duncan Smith once came to outline his vision for welfare reform, supporters of independence are telling people who haven’t voted since Margaret Thatcher used them as guinea pigs for the poll tax that they have the chance to be rid of the Tories for ever. The narrowing polls raise the prospect of a divorce that could be long, complex and bitter. The pound has been coming under pressure as it has become clear that the race is rapidly becoming a far closer call than anyone but diehard Scottish nationalists had ever envisaged. “In some ways it is a bigger challenge than 2008,” Darling says during a visit to Aberdeen. “This is about the future of the country in which I live. I don’t want to take a leap into the unknown.”

Clearly not all Scots see it that way. Many say they are taking the leap with their eyes wide open. They have been told by George Osborne and Ed Balls that there is no possibility that an independent Scotland could forge a monetary union with the rest of the UK. They have been told by the country’s acknowledged oil expert, Sir Ian Wood, that the reserves of oil may not be as plentiful as previously thought. They have been served notice by some big employers that they will up sticks and leave in the event of a yes vote. But Dave Moxham, deputy general secretary of the Scottish TUC, says: “The direction is only one way. And that is from undecided voters to yes. Whether it will be enough to win I am not sure, but it is a noticeable trend.” John Swinney is the Scottish National party’s answer to Darling: calm, cautious, a safe pair of hands. Sitting in Yes Scotland’s HQ in Hope Street, Glasgow, he puts the case for independence in one short sentence. “I think we will make a better job of running the country ourselves rather than having decisions made by the UK government.”

Read more …

London Press Reflects Panic At Scottish Poll (Guardian)

Suddenly, Scottish independence is front page news for the London-based national press. The narrowing of the polls has concentrated editors’ attention as never before. The splash headlines of the Daily Telegraph (“Ten days to save the Union”), the Independent (“Ten days to save the United Kingdom”) and the Guardian (“Last stand to keep the union”) convey the mounting sense of panic about the possibility of the Yes side winning the vote on 18 September. The Times’s splash, “Parties unite in last-ditch bid to save the Union”, reports that “David Cameron and Ed Miliband will unite this week” in order to back “a government paper that commits to handing more powers to Scotland within days of a ‘no’ vote.” Three tabloids play the royal card: “Queen’s fear over break up of Britain” (Daily Mail); “Don’t let me be last Queen of Scotland” (Daily Mirror); and “Queen’s fears for Britain’s break-up” (Daily Express). Metro reminds its readers of a central bone of contention between the two sides: “No, we will NOT share the pound”.

And the Sun? Well, as you might expect, it manages to find a pun: “Jocky horror show”. (But it must take the subject seriously because it has not run its usual topless page 3 girl). The panic page 1 headlines are echoed in leading articles. The Telegraph’s full-length editorial concedes that “it is now at least conceivable that a fortnight from today negotiations will be under way to administer the break-up of the United Kingdom.” It believes Alex Salmond’s “appeal to national sentiment has superseded the anxieties many Scots felt when confronted with concerns about their ability to make their way in the world economically… with 10 days to go, the final appeal – as Mr Salmond intended it should be – is to the heart and not the head.” The Telegraph attacks Labour for “a desperate 11th-hour attempt to shore up the house they helped undermine” and contends that it is “incumbent upon Labour, who have run the Better Together campaign often to the deliberate exclusion of the Tories, to get their supporters to the polls next Thursday to save the Union.”

Read more …

Scottish Independence Looms as Iceberg Moves Toward UK (Bloomberg)

Scottish independence increasingly looks like an iceberg that could sink Prime Minister David Cameron’s government and the opposition Labour Party. And like the passengers on the Titanic, they never saw it coming. Yesterday’s YouGov Plc (YOU) poll putting the Yes vote on 51% sparked a fresh effort from supporters of the union to urge Scots to come back from the brink. About 100 Labour lawmakers will travel to Scotland this week to campaign for a No vote, while Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne offered more powers over taxes and spending to the Scottish Parliament — if voters opt to stay part of the U.K. Cameron was staying with Queen Elizabeth II at Balmoral Castle in northeast Scotland when he learned that the independence campaign had moved into the lead.

“These polls can and must serve as a wake-up call to anyone who thought the referendum result was a foregone conclusion,” Alistair Darling, the leader of the Better Together campaign, which opposes independence, said in a statement. “It never was. It will go down to the wire.” Scottish independence would bring the curtain down on a 307-year-old union that created one of the most influential countries in the world. It would also constitute the biggest crisis of Cameron’s premiership. The prospect of the U.K.’s demise raises as yet unresolved questions over the future of the country’s nuclear deterrent, currently based on Scotland’s west coast, and so its diplomatic standing. Yet Cameron was so unconcerned that his office said he didn’t watch either of the televised debates between Darling and Scottish nationalist leader Alex Salmond. After challenging the economic viability of an independent Scotland, the prime minister has mixed that message with an appeal to the shared history of the nations in the U.K.

It was a Scot, William Paterson, who founded the Bank of England.

Read more …

Only?

Japan Q2 GDP Revised Down To A 7.1% Contraction (Reuters)

Japan’s economy shrank an annualised 7.1% in April-June from the previous quarter, revised down from a preliminary 6.8% contraction due to weaker-than-expected capital spending, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday. The revised contraction was the biggest since a 15.0% decline marked in January-March 2009. The result compared with a median forecast for a 7.0% contraction in a Reuters poll of economists. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank 1.8% in the second quarter, compared with a preliminary reading of a 1.7% contraction. The result matched the median market forecast.

Read more …

Economists Point To Emerging ‘Draghinomics’ (FT)

Eurozone officials attending the Ambrosetti forum over the weekend welcomed the European Central Bank’s moves to cut interest rates and signal forthcoming purchases of asset-backed securities, with some private-sector economists suggesting this could herald a new policy mix. Even though the ECB’s long-term forecasts of moderate recovery remain unchanged, the bank’s board members have grown increasingly worried about the recent downward pressure on prices and the softening of consumer confidence. Its latest moves are designed to stave off deflation and jolt the sluggish eurozone economy back to life. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, said ECB president Mario Draghi’s remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers signalled an important evolution of thinking. Mr Draghi said at the symposium that monetary policy should be supported by increased spending by countries with strong fiscal positions and structural reforms in economies such as France and Italy.

Mr Roubini labelled the emerging policy mix “Draghinomics” because of its similarity to the three arrows of Abenomics in Japan. “Abenomics has three arrows: monetary and fiscal easing and structural reforms. The eurozone is in near deflation and the recovery is not happening. Monetary and fiscal easing cannot resolve the problem on their own. The ECB has recognised that structural and supply-side reforms are fundamental,” Mr Roubini told the Financial Times. Jyrki Katainen, the European Commission’s vice-president for economic and monetary affairs, said that member states needed to stick to the fiscal discipline that had helped stabilise the currency bloc. But in an interview with the Financial Times, he suggested there was some “fiscal space” in the eurozone as a whole to increase public investment spending. The commission would put renewed emphasis on structural reforms.

“I very much agree with Mario Draghi and what he said that there is a huge need for pursuing structural reforms to improve competitiveness in Europe,” Mr Katainen said, highlighting labour and product market reforms, pension reforms, and liberalising some professional services in various countries. He also said that public spending across the eurozone should be adapted to encourage investment. One other senior eurozone official attending the Italian forum which gathers together policy makers, business people and academics said: “Structural reforms are key. Those countries that have made these efforts are performing better: Ireland, Spain and Portugal. Italy and France should think a little bit about this.” Members of the ECB’s governing council applauded Mr Draghi’s performance to the press on Thursday, saying his remarks accurately characterised the debate between policy makers. It was during the press conference following the rate cut announcement that the ECB president acknowledged the council was split for the first time since last November.

Read more …

China is one big udder for Oz.

China’s Housing Market Nears Collapse. Should Australia Worry? (Guardian)

After a decade of riding on the back of China with little concern about falling off, recent data has many economists worried that the ride is about to get much bumpier. It’s perhaps not surprising that China is important not just to Australia’s economy, but the whole world’s. But just how important it has become is surprising. Back at the start of this century the Chinese economy was around 11% the size of the US; now it is nearly 60% the size of the US. But despite that massive growth, it wasn’t until 2007 that China became more important than the US to world economic growth. Before 2007, the US was easily the biggest contributor to the growth of the world’s economy. In 2004, for example, the world economy grew by 12.8% (nominal terms) to which the US contributed two percentage points.

By way of context, the UK and Japan that year contributed 0.9 percentage points, France 0.7 and Germany 0.8. China also contributed 0.8 percentage points. In 2007, the world’s GDP grew by a similar 12.7%, but this time China was the biggest contributor with 1.6 percentage points worth, and the US contributing just 1.2. And since then, China has remained the biggest driver of the world’s economic growth: To put it in even more stark terms, from 2007 to 2013, the world’s economy grew by 31% and China contributed nearly a third of that, with 10.1 percentage points worth. Plucky little Australia with 1 percentage point chipped in for 3.2% of the world’s growth in the period – not bad given that we only account for around 2% of the size of world’s economy:

Read more …

China Posts Record Surplus as Exports-Imports Diverge (Bloomberg)

China’s trade surplus climbed to a record in August as exports rose on the back of increased shipments to the U.S. and Europe, while imports fell for a second month as a property slump hurt domestic demand. Exports increased 9.4% from a year earlier, the Beijing-based customs administration said today, compared with the 9% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Imports unexpectedly dropped 2.4%, leaving a trade surplus of $49.8 billion. Divergent directions for exports and imports show China is some way from providing the global growth boost that IHS Inc. this month forecast will see it eclipse the U.S. economy in 2024. Languishing domestic demand underscores risks to the government’s economic-growth target this year of about 7.5% as home prices and construction fall, boosting chances of additional stimulus.

“A targeted cut in mortgage rates is more and more likely,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “If the weakness in the property market can’t be reversed, it’s difficult for the government to reach its annual growth target of 7.5%.” Sustaining export gains may also be challenging because geopolitical risks are weighing on Europe’s economic outlook, said Shen, who formerly worked at the European Central Bank. The increase in exports follows a previously reported 14.5% jump in July and compares with analysts’ estimates for gains ranging from 4.9% to 17%. The median projection for imports was a 3% increase, after a 1.6% drop in July, and the trade surplus was forecast at $40 billion, following a previous record of $47.3 billion in July.

Read more …

China is doing much worse than reported.

China Commodity Imports Flashing Warning Signs (Reuters)

If you were trying to distil China’s commodity imports for August into a single word, that word may be cautious. Crude oil imports rose 6% from a month earlier, but China was a net fuel exporter for a fourth month this year, meaning that some of the additional crude imports were shipped out as refined products. In assessing the state of Chinese oil demand, the impact of the trade in refined products is becoming increasingly important, as the trend is now clearly toward rising net exports, particularly of diesel. Crude imports were 5.93 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, slightly below the average of 6.03 million bpd for the first eight months of the year. This represents a gain of 450,000 bpd over the 5.58 million bpd imported in the first eight months of 2013.

However, net fuel imports in the first eight months of last year amounted to about 246,000 bpd, while this year there are a paltry 17,000 bpd. If the net fuel imports are added to crude imports, it takes year to date imports for 2014 to 6.047 million bpd, and to 5.826 million bpd for the same period last year, a difference of just 221,000 bpd. This is probably a more accurate reflection of the true state of Chinese fuel demand, and even this picture may be overstated, given the likelihood that strategic storages were being filled in the first half of 2014. What this means is that the International Energy Agency’s forecast for Chinese oil demand to rise 2.9% in 2014 may be too optimistic, and a figure closer to 2% is more likely.

Other commodity imports are also sending warning signals, with unwrought copper flat on month, iron ore dropping 9.3% and coal slumping 18.1%. Unwrought copper imports were 340,000 tonnes in August, bringing the year-to-date total to 3.2 million tonnes, a gain of 14.3% from the same period last year. This is still a relatively strong outcome, and given concern over the strength of manufacturing and housing construction, it would seem that imports are likely running ahead of actual consumption, meaning that stockpiling for financing purposes is still boosting demand.

Read more …

Weak China Iron Ore Imports Weigh On Prices (FT)

China’s iron ore imports dipped in August, contributing to a $10 a tonne drop over the past month in seaborne prices for the key ingredient in steel to the lowest level since October 2009. Reduced imports of iron ore and coal, plus lower prices for other bulk commodities, helped push China’s August import data into negative territory. China’s total imports shrank 2.4% last month, while a 9.4% growth in exports reflected strong demand from the US and Europe. Weak Chinese manufacturing data for August have raised expectations for further domestic stimulus measures, following gradual easing of local housing policies. A slowdown in construction combined with overcapacity has helped pressure markets for steel and other metals.

China imported 74.9m tonnes of iron ore in August – down 9% from July and roughly equivalent to June – as steel mills cut operating rates to their lowest level since March. However, iron ore imports are still up nearly 17% for the year to date, illustrating how falling prices have helped imported ore maintain market share at the expense of more expensive domestic iron ore mines. In spite of the drop in prices, an official at the central planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, lectured BHP Billiton’s China head on the need for a “new model” in pricing, according to a transcript of the meeting last week released by the agency. Her remarks raised concern that international iron ore miners could join the ranks of foreign industries targeted for “monopoly” pricing practices.

Read more …

Marine Le Pen Calls To Dissolve France’s Lower House (RT)

France is in a “catastrophic situation” and the newly reshuffled cabinet is a “circus,” National Front party leader Marine Le Pen said on Sunday, urging President Hollande to dissolve the National Assembly. Speaking to French media, the head of France’s right-wing National Front likened the recent reshuffle of Prime Minister Manuel Valls’ cabinet to an “illusionist performance,” calling it a “circus.” Le Pen suggested that French President Francois Hollande should dissolve the National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament. She added that it was “more than necessary” and “the only responsible decision” Hollande would make since he became head of state five years ago. “Francois Hollande tries to save time, but the damage is too deep,” Le Pen argued. In August, Hollande asked Valls to form a new government following tensions within his cabinet over the country’s economic policy. The decision came after strong criticism of the country’s economic direction – which the outgoing economy minister, Arnaud Montebourg, voiced as he called for a “major shift.”

“My responsibility as economy minister is to tell the truth, and observe…that not only are these austerity policies not working but they are also unfair,” Montebourg said in a statement at a media conference on August 25. He frontally attacked German Chancellor Angela Merkel for imposing “austerity police” across Europe. Hollande appointed a new government composed of core allies, casting aside high-profile, left-wing critics – including Montebourg, Culture Minister Aurélie Filippetti, and Minister for Education Benoît Hamon. The move was the second government reshuffle in less than six months. The latest polls have indicated that Le Pen’s popularity is on the rise. A survey released on Friday estimates that the nationalist leader would beat Hollande in the second round of the 2017 elections after grabbing over 30% of the vote in the first round.

Read more …

EU Banks Sidestepping Bonus Limits Face Regulatory Crackdown (Bloomberg)

Banks in the European Union that attempt to evade new bonus rules face a “coordinated policy response” from the bloc’s regulators. Michel Barnier, the EU’s financial-services chief, called for action on the “politically very important matter” of lenders that have turned to so-called allowances to get around an EU ban on bonuses worth more than twice fixed pay. “I would like to underline my strong concerns with regard to the continuing reports of the use of these allowances,” Barnier wrote in a Sept. 4 letter to Andrea Enria, chairperson of the European Banking Authority. “It is important to show a collective proactive stance on this important matter and address the claims made that the spirit, if not the letter, of union law is being disregarded.”

Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland are among banks that have introduced allowances in response to the bonus limit. Lenders have warned that the cap will harm their competitiveness and force them to increase fixed pay. Allowances, also known as role-based pay, are a regularly adjustable part of employees’ pay packets. They are considered by the banks to be part of salary unaffected by the bonus cap. Barnier asked Enria to share the results of the EBA’s investigation into bonus-cap evasion by the end of the month “in order to ensure that we can address any concerns in a timely manner through a coordinated policy response.” The European Commission provided a copy of the letter.

Read more …

And then?

Snowden ‘To Get Swiss Asylum If He Testifies On NSA’ (RT)

Switzerland has reportedly decided it will not extradite National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden to the US if he comes to testify against the NSA’s spying activities, Swiss media said. In the document, titled “What rules are to be followed if Edward Snowden is brought to Switzerland and then the United States makes an extradition request,” Switzerland’s Attorney General stated that Snowden should be guaranteed safety if he arrives to the country to testify, Sonntags Zeitung reported. In particular, the report proposes to ensure the whistleblower’s safety by inviting him as a witness to a parliamentary hearing focusing on the NSA’s surveillance practices. In the document, the authority said that Switzerland does not extradite a US citizen, if the individual’s “actions constitute a political offense, or if the request has been politically motivated,” Swiss ATS news agency reported.

Snowden’s safety can thus be guaranteed if it is ruled that the charges against him have a “predominantly political character,” the document concluded. The only obstacle for that could be “higher-level government commitments,” the Office of the Attorney General said, adding that it must be verified if such obligations do, in fact, exist. The document was reportedly requested last November. Snowden’s Swiss lawyer, Marcel Bosonnet, said he is pleased with the Attorney General’s conclusions. “The legal requirements for safety are met,” he assured, adding that Snowden has already showed interest in testifying. Immigration rights activist Sarah Progin-Theuerkauf hinted that Snowden might even have a shot at Swiss asylum following the proposed testimony. “There is evidence that Edward Snowden meets the criteria of refugee status under the Geneva Convention and therefore should be granted asylum,” she told Sonntags Zeitung. Swiss politicians meanwhile are calling to welcome Snowden to Switzerland as soon as possible.

Read more …

Interesting.

Venezuelan Default Suggested by Harvard Economist (Bloomberg)

As Venezuela racks up billions of dollars of arrears with importers that are fueling the worst shortages on record, one of the nation’s top economists is questioning the government’s decision to keep servicing its foreign bonds. A “massive default on the country’s import chain” is part of what has allowed the nation to keep paying its foreign bonds, Ricardo Hausmann, a former Venezuelan planning minister who is now director of the Center for International Development at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said by phone from Boston. “I find the moral choice odd. Normally governments declare that they have an inability to pay way before this point.” While Hausmann declined to say if he’s specifically recommending a default, he said he found “no moral grounds” for the government and state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA to make $5.3 billion of bond payments due in October.

With foreign reserves at an 11-year low and arrears to importers growing, Venezuelans are struggling to find everything from basic medicines to toilet paper. And prices are surging on the goods that they can buy, saddling the country with the world’s highest inflation rate. The nation’s bonds are sinking as President Nicolas Maduro fails to stem the crisis. The extra yield investors demand to own Venezuelan sovereign bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries has jumped 1.92 percentage point in the past month to 12.3 percentage points, the highest since March, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The spread is the highest in emerging markets. Bonds slumped last week after Maduro removed Rafael Ramirez, the country’s main economic policy maker, fueling concern the government may delay or scrap measures to ease the hemorrhaging of dollars, including a currency devaluation and increase in gasoline prices.

Marcos Torres, the head of economy and finance at the central bank, didn’t reply to an e-mail seeking comment on Hausmann’s statements. An official at the Information Ministry declined to comment when reached over the weekend. Hausmann has been a public figure in Venezuela for more than two decades, having served as planning minister in the government that the late Hugo Chavez, Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, tried to topple in a 1992 coup attempt. Hausmann then joined the Inter-American Development Bank, where he was chief economist, before leaving for Harvard in 2000. In a Sept. 5 piece published in Project Syndicate that was titled “Should Venezuela Default?”, Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos, a Harvard research fellow, highlighted how the import arrears and shortages are imposing hardship on Venezuelans. “The fact that his administration has chosen to default on 30 million Venezuelans, rather than on Wall Street, is not a sign of its moral rectitude,” they wrote. “It is a signal of its moral bankruptcy.”

Read more …

Aug 252014
 
 August 25, 2014  Posted by at 10:03 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , ,  5 Responses »


Dorothea Lange Saturday afternoon. 10 cent store, Siler City, North Carolina July 1939

Well, it’s not as if nothing ever happens. One government and one parliament down, all in one day. One planned, the other not so much.

Ukraine president Poroshenko dissolved parliament so he can have sole control for the next two months. And smile with a smirk at Putin when they meet tomorrow. Wonder what ‘progress’ they’ll make. Judging from all the accusations thrown around just today, and the plans announced, they’re not going to be short of material.

RT has the rebels claim they have thousands of Ukraine soldiers cornered, Kiev claims Russian tanks have entered the country on their way to Mariupol on the Azov Sea. A city where Ukraine did some unpalatable things earlier this year, by the way.

But the Ukraine battle is going to go on long enough to get back to on some other day, it’s not even close to being over. France is the potentially more interesting situation in today’s news.

French prime minister Manuel Valls has offered the resignation of his 4 month old (young?!) government. President François Hollande has accepted (after first insisting he’d do it) and ordered him to form a new one as soon as tomorrow. All this came after a hefty weekend in which Hollande and Valls’ policies were criticized by their own economy minister, Arnaud Montebourg.

The cabinet shuffle is aimed at getting rid of him, and of education minister Benoît Hamon and culture minister Aurélie Filippetti, who openly agreed with Montebourg’s criticisms.

Whether the shuffle would have taken place if Montebourg wouldn’t have included Germany in his tirade will probably remain an open question. What is sure is that Angela Merkel and the Bundesbank will, certainly in France, come under increasing fire for their insistence that all of Europe obey the harsh austerity measures Berlin has hammered into the EU and ECB.

And it’s not an easy position Hollande has maneuvered himself into. It may even be hopeless. It’s by no means sure that the new cabinet Valls is set to unveil tomorrow will be accepted by the French parliament. And that may be the end of that parliament too, and new elections. Which Marine Le Pen’s right wing Front National has already called for anyway.

And with Hollande’s approval rating at 17%, a more than 50-year low for a French president, that could mean big changes. Valls’ approval is at 36%, not sparkly either.

The critical voices are all part of Hollande’s own Socialist party, they’re just more left than he is. And that left is still a strong voice in France. Seeing it split into multiple factions cannot possibly be good for a president with that sort of ratings. He’ll soon be in single digits.

Then again, the right is growing stronger too. France is becoming a vastly more polarized nation, at a time when the truth about its economy is seeping through the cracks of the political system.

The options on the table are: Hollande and Valls stay in power, and continue to adhere to the Berlin/Brussels austerity model. If, and only if, they can guide a new cabinet through the National Assembly tomorrow. But they’ve now lost the far left wing of their own party, which is opposed to more austerity, though it does want the EU.

Option no. 2 is the far left gets the power, where it would have to either get Brussels to do a 180º on austerity or flip it the bird and start spending no matter what. Not an easy thing to when your central bank effectively resides in Frankfurt.

Option no. 3 is new elections, and the very real risk of Marine Le Pen and the Front National coming out on top. They want out of the euro and out of the EU.

Those new elections may well be written in stone already. The left has failed its constituents, because France is in the doldrums economically and there’s really no way out other than through means that will lead to mass protest. Which the French are very good at.

The left could try to save the very large entitlement programs, but that would mean ever more debt, and a potential rift with Germany and Brussels. The right would certainly tell everyone who’s not French to go stuff themselves, but it would still have to deal with millions upon millions of people who officially have jobs but in reality live off the state. Not to mention the workers, still organized in strong unions.

Does Le Pen want a civil war, or a revolution and counter revolution? She may think her party’s strong enough to do any of the above. Plenty of French will listen to a message that says Berlin should not dictate Paris, especially when it means poverty for the French people.

Can Brussels conjure up an autocrat, like they did in Italy, Greece, Portugal? That looks quite a bit harder to do in France. But we shouldn’t ignore the ruling classes under the surface, which have governed the country for a very long time, the landowners and industrialists who’ve all attended the same schools for generations. And who now, no doubt, start feeling the crisis too, even though its true numbers haven’t even been published yet.

France is a very proud nation. It’s also very large in the European context. Without it there is no EU, and no euro. We might just have seen the beginning of the end for both.

French Government Dissolved Amid Row Over Economy (RTE)

France has been thrown into fresh crisis after President Francois Hollande told his prime minister to form a new government. This followed a much-criticised show of insubordination by the country’s firebrand economy minister. Mr Hollande ordered Prime Minister Manuel Valls to form a new cabinet “consistent with the direction he has set for the country”, the presidency said in a statement. It did not give any reasons, but the move came after Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg bad-mouthed the country’s economic direction and ally Germany at the weekend in a move that angered Mr Valls. This morning, Mr Valls offered the resignation of his government. Mr Valls was asked by President Francois Hollande to form a new team only four months ago but has continually had to reconcile policy differences between leftists such as Mr Montebourg and more centrist members of his Socialist-led government.

President Hollande’s office said in a statement a new government would be formed on Tuesday in line with the “direction he (the president) has defined for our country.” Mr Montebourg at the weekend said deficit-reduction measures carried out since the 2008 financial crisis were crippling the eurozone’s economies and urged governments to change course or lose their voters to populist and extremist parties. Finance Minister Michel Sapin acknowledged this month that weak growth would mean France missing its deficit-reduction target for this year but stressed the government would continue cutting the deficit “at an appropriate pace”. The weakness of the economy was a major factor in Mr Valls seeing his approval rating drop to a new low of 36% this month, while Mr Hollande remained the most unpopular president in more than half a century, an Ifop poll showed on Sunday. Mr Valls was appointed to lead the government in a cabinet reshuffle in March, after the ruling Socialists suffered a bruising defeat in local elections.

Read more …

French Ministers Criticize Economic Austerity Policies (WSJ)

Senior French ministers called for changes to President François Hollande’s tax and spending cuts plan over the weekend, saying alternatives are possible and attacking austerity policies in France and the euro zone. In interviews with the French press and speeches at a Socialist gathering Sunday, Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg and Education Minister Benoît Hamon said forcibly reducing budget deficits as the economy wilts is driving up unemployment, fueling political extremism and risks tipping the economy into recession. “The priority must be exiting crisis and the dogmatic reduction of deficits should come second,” Mr. Montebourg said in an interview with Le Monde published ahead of the annual Fête de la Rose meeting of Socialist Party activists at Frangy-en-Bresse in eastern France.

The minister also turned on Germany: “We need to raise the tone. Germany is caught in the trap of austerity that it is imposing across Europe.” Mr. Hamon joined Mr. Montebourg’s call for a change of course. He said the Socialist government needs to reconnect with its electorate and boost demand by increasing tax cuts for households after defeats in local and European elections this year . “The worst thing would be to think of French people as children who haven’t understood,” Mr. Hamon said, speaking after Mr. Montebourg at the Socialist meeting. This isn’t the first time the Mr. Montebourg has attacked French government policy. In July, he proposed a string of measures to boost domestic demand and advocated handing more tax cuts to consumers.

But the criticism comes at a difficult moment for the French president, who said earlier this week he will push ahead with a three-year plan to cut public spending to fund tax cuts for business even as the economy stagnates. Businesses continued cutting investment in the second quarter despite receiving the first payouts from labor-tax reductions. Critics of Mr. Hollande’s plans have seized on the economy’s disappointing performance in the first half of the year to argue the Socialist leader needs to rethink the balance of cuts. “Promising to get the economy going again, on the path to growth and full employment, hasn’t worked. Honesty obliges us to acknowledge this,” Mr. Montebourg said in a speech to supporters. “The role of the economy minister and any statesman in his place is to confront the truth—even it is cruel—and propose alternative solutions,” he added.

Read more …

And everything lese.

Fears Of Slowdown As German Business Morale Drops (CNBC)

Fears of a German economic slowdown were further heightened on Monday, as a key business survey fell short of analyst expectations. The Ifo Business Climate index, which measures German business sentiment, showed signs of continued weakness in August, falling for the fourth consecutive month. The index slipped to 106.3 in August, down from 108.0 in July and missing analyst expectations of 107.0 “The German economy continues to lose steam,” Hans-Werner Sinn, the president of the Ifo Institute, said in a statement, adding that this month’s reading marked the index’s lowest level since July 2013. Ifo economist and deputy director Klaus Wohlrabe told Reuters that domestic consumption in the country remained solid, but warned that the Ukraine crisis was a “burdensome factor” for the country’s economy.

Germany is the European country with the highest exposure to Russia, and Wohlrabe added that German firms with business ties to Russia were “more pessimistic”. The weak number follows disappointing gross domestic product (GDP) data for the country earlier this month. The figures showed that the economy in Germany – often referred to as Europe’s growth engine – had contracted for the first time in over a year in the second quarter. It showed a marked slowdown from the January to March period, when the economy grew strongly. Wohlrabe told Reuters that Ifo was now likely to reduce its GDP forecast for the country to 1.5% growth, down from the 2% predicted.

Read more …

Yeah right.

IMF Chief Lagarde: Germany Should Drive Economic Recovery In Europe (AFP)

IMF chief Christine Lagarde wants Germany to play a bigger role in propelling economic recovery in Europe, she hinted in an interview broadcast on Monday, suggesting that German wages should rise. Part of her remarks may be interpreted by personalities on the left of French politics as going in the same direction as criticism of French, German and European Union austerity policies by French Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg at the weekend. Montebourg’s attack on the thrust of the French Socialist government’s policy caused a crisis on Monday when President Francois Hollande told Prime Minister Manuel Valls to form a new government. Lagarde told Swiss public broadcaster RTS: “What I think is very important for Germany is to participate in the recovery movement in a very intense way. It has the means to do so.”

Describing the European economic recovery as “labourious”, the head of the International Monetary Fund stressed that the continent’s economic powerhouse had “room for manoeuvre”, as seen in recent wage negotiations. “That leeway has been disclosed in the salary negotiations between the unions and the employers’ organisations,” she said, adding that “hopefully that movement will be amplified and will help propel the European recovery.” Last month, Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann said that German wages had scope to rise by up to to three% because “we are practically in a situation of full employment”. But this runs counter to many on the German right, including Chancellor Angela Merkel, who believe that low-wage policy has given the country its competitive edge.

Read more …

A disgrace.

Over 50% Of Americans On Welfare Or Other Government Assistance (Mish)

As a result of Obamacare Medicaid expansion coupled with means-tested Obamacare assistance, I estimate welfare rolls expanded from 35.4% of the population in 2012 to about 40% in 2014. Let’s go through the math to see how I make that estimate. The latest welfare statistics are from year-end 2012. Those figures show 35.4%] 109,631,000 on Welfare.

109,631,000 living in households taking federal welfare benefits as of the end of 2012, according to the Census Bureau, equaled 35.4% of all 309,467,000 people living in the United States at that time.

When those receiving benefits from non-means-tested federal programs — such as Social Security, Medicare, unemployment and veterans benefits — were added to those taking welfare benefits, it turned out that 153,323,000 people were getting federal benefits of some type at the end of 2012. Subtract the 3,297,000 who were receiving veterans’ benefits from the total, and that leaves 150,026,000 people receiving non-veterans’ benefits. The 153,323,000 total benefit-takers at the end of 2012, said the Census Bureau, equaled 49.5% of the population. The 150,026,000 taking benefits other than veterans’ benefits equaled about 48.5% of the population. In 2012, according to the Census Bureau, there were 103,087,000 full-time year-round workers in the United States (including 16,606,000 full-time year-round government workers). Thus, the welfare-takers outnumbered full-time year-round workers by 6,544,000.

Read more …

Fewer Economists Believe US Policy On Right Track (CNBC)

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is headed in the right direction, but the U.S. also needs to enact structural policies in order to stimulate stronger economic growth, according to a new survey released Monday. The National Association for Business Economics’ economic policy survey found 53% believe U.S. monetary policy is on the right track, that’s down slightly compared with 57% in February 2014. And 39% felt that the current economic policy was too stimulative. When asked how policy makers should address deficit problems and their impact on gross domestic product, 36% of respondents said the U.S. should enact structural policies to spur stronger GDP. Last year, only 20% supported this approach. According to the survey, a majority of economists were less concerned about fiscal policy uncertainty in comparison to earlier polls. “While there is no clear consensus on current fiscal policy, the share expressing approval has increased markedly to 42% compared to just 31% one year ago,” says NABE president Jack Kleinhenz.

“Over this same period, the panel’s approval of Federal Reserve policy has edged downward.” The semiannual survey of 257 members was conducted between July 22 and August 4, around the same time as the Fed’s most recent policy meeting—which concluded on July 30. The Federal Open Market Committee intends to end its monthly asset purchases by October, but the plan hinges on whether the economy improves as it expects. However, the Fed will continue to reinvest principal payments of Treasury debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Some 30% of panelists said the Fed should stop such reinvestment by the end of 2014, but only 7% expect it to do so by then. Over half of the respondents, 54%, said they expect the Fed to stop in 2015, while nearly a quarter, 23%, expect it to stop in 2016 or later. Similar to the results of the previous survey, nearly 70% consider the Fed’s quantitative easing a success.

Read more …

S&P broke 2000.

‘Groundbreaking’ Draghi Brings Cheer To Markets (CNBC)

European markets cheered dovish words by Mario Draghi at the start of the week, after the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a wide-ranging speech which many deemed to mark a key turning point in rhetoric. Draghi’s comments, at the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers in Wyoming on Friday, raised expectations of further policy easing by the central bank. Hopes of further stimulus pushed stocks in Europe higher on Monday. The euro, meanwhile, stumbled to 1.3189 against the dollar – a level not seen since September 2013. German sovereign bond yields also eased lower amid expectations that the ECB could begin a major asset-buying program. “This could actually go down as one of the major speeches by Draghi, signaling another potential policy shift that is in the making,” Christoph Rieger, head of fixed-income strategy at Commerzbank, told CNBC on Monday morning. Taking the stage after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday, Draghi’s words on weak inflation in the region were of particular interest to analysts.

Notably, the ECB President bulked out his speech and drifted away from pre-prepared comments. Draghi cited the risks of a further drop in euro zone inflation, which stood at just 0.4% in July, and said the bank would use all available instruments within its mandate to ensure price stability over the medium term. He also highlighted that market-based long-term inflation expectations had recently fallen. Philippe Gudin, an economist at Barclays, called Draghi’s speech a “major breakthrough”, and said his comments on inflation were a sign the bank could be readying additional easing measures in the near term, such as a quantitative easing (QE) program. “This speech represents a significant breakthrough in the ECB rhetoric and will probably have significant implications regarding the debate just about to start between European governments on policies that need to be deployed to avoid a ‘triple-dip recession’ and a fall in outright deflation,” he said in a research note on Sunday evening.

Read more …

There’s A Big Problem With The Dow (CNBC)

If you follow the Dow Jones industrial average, you may be wasting your time. And if you invested in the Dow instead of the S&P 500 this year, you’ve actually missed out on a lot of gains. Despite a 1% rally on Monday, the Dow is up just 1.6% since the start of 2014. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has gained 6.7%. So what explains the discrepancy? “For at least the past decade, if not longer, [the Dow] really is too concentrated, too focused on large caps,” said Erin Gibbs, equity chief investment officer at S&P Capital IQ. “Inherently, [it] has some problems with it being representative of the overall market.” While the Dow is composed of just 30 stocks, the S&P 500 index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 companies. The funny thing is that both are among the 830,000 indexes administered by S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“The S&P 500 really just has a much more diverse and broad array of industries and sectors you can have exposure to,” said Gibbs. “So our preference is heavily the S&P 500, but mainly because of the valuations and the growth when you look at the two indexes.” According to Gibbs , the outperformance may continue. The S&P 500 is valued at roughly 15.6 times the next 12 months’ earnings, while the Dow is at 16.2 times its forward earnings. Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, agrees with Gibbs. “I don’t think the Dow is a great reflection of the market anymore,” Wald said. “It only covers 30 stocks. It also puts too much emphasis on the price rather than a market’s capitalization.”

Read more …

It’s not as if anyone else does.

Russia Plans to Send Second Aid Convoy to Eastern Ukraine (Bloomberg)

Russia plans to send a second convoy loaded with humanitarian aid to eastern Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, days after the first delivery sparked international condemnation by crossing its neighbor’s border without authorization. The government in Moscow has informed Ukraine of plans to dispatch another column of trucks this week, with the convoy taking the same route through rebel-held territory as the lorries that returned to Russia two days ago, Lavrov told reporters in Moscow today. Lavrov said Russia hoped for no delays and called on the Red Cross and Ukraine to help with the delivery as the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate in the war-torn regions.

Speaking a day before the leaders of Russia and Ukraine meet in the Belarus capital of Minsk, Lavrov said the talks between President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko will focus on economic ties, the humanitarian crisis and the prospects for a political resolution in Ukraine. The armed conflict with pro-Russian rebels has shown no signs of abating since the insurrection started after Putin’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula in March. All of about 280 trucks that carried what Russia says is humanitarian aid have returned on Aug. 23, according to the Foreign Ministry in Moscow. The U.S. and the European Union condemned the decision to send the convoy, which the government in Kiev called an “invasion.”

Read more …

Russia Asks If US Still Fit To Help Solve International Problems (Zero Hedge)

Yesterday it was China slamming America’s superpower status (and thus dollar reserve currency status) when in Sina News it stated the following:

Their various reconnaissance aircraft have been wandering around foreign airspace for decades and watching the military secrets of other countries like a disgusting thief spying over his neighbor’s fence. However, when the neighbor comes back with a big stick, the thief will turn tail and run away, blaming the neighbor. [..] When you show people weakness, they will bully you. When you show people strength, they will respect you. [..] We [the newspaper] believe the Chinese Air Force and Naval aviation should maintain a high level of vigilence and morale in southeast coastal region to prevent the further US action. America has lost face and does not want to show the world they are sick. They have been lording over other countries for so long, and they will never let it go after they eat this loss.

Now it is Russia’s turn, whose Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on Friday, following the UN’s delay in adopting a statement calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine after the US once again opposed Russia, which claimed among other things that “if the US opposes an absolutely non-confrontational, reconciliatory text, there can be no doubts that Washington intends to have the armed confrontation in Ukraine continued. It could be seen only as an attempt to ‘undermine’ the humanitarian mission.” A mission which Russia greenlighted despite stern US opposition, and also concluded without incident as we reported yesterday, when the convoy returned to Russia after a brief stay in east Ukraine. Moscow believes that such policy is hypocritical, the ministry added. Of course, if indeed the Ukraine economic crisis is the direct result of US and CIA meddling as the Victoria Nuland intercepted recording validates, then Russia has every right to such an opinion. The punchline:

“Cynical disregard for the fate of civilians and ‘couldn’t care less’ attitude toward the international humanitarian law when it comes to geopolitical interests, becomes the core of the policy of the United States and its European satellites regarding Ukrainian,” the statement read. [..] “More and more questions are being raised about the ability of the current US administration to participate in the development of realistic and pragmatic approaches to international problems, to adequately assess the situation in the various regions of the world,” the Russia Foreign Ministry noted.

One wonders if based on his recent track record in the international arena, the president of the US wouldn’t agree.

Read more …

How wrong is he?

‘Russia Seems Only Party Still Interested In MH17 Investigation’ (RT)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has announced plans for a second humanitarian convoy to be sent to eastern Ukraine, urging all foreign actors and agencies to participate. Failure to do so would constitute a violation of international law, he warned. “Anyone in need of aid shall receive it,” the FM said, stressing that it is important to learn from the mistakes of the first attempt and to look forward to closer cooperation with the Ukrainian authorities this time around. He stressed that as the indiscriminate shelling of areas such as Lugansk continues, the humanitarian need for water and food grows. This has been acknowledged by humanitarian agencies and itnernational actors at large. The distribution of aid is currently underway, and is headed by the ICRC. The FM also added that the shelling of schools, hospitals, kindergartens and other vulnerable institutions and structures can no longer be excused by claims of “wrongful shooting” or be written off as “accidental.”

Minister Lavrov emphasized that Russia is willing and ready to participate in full in any type of negotiations on ending hostilities in the east, and expressed hope that Tuesday’s meeting in Minsk will include a focus on the crisis in Ukraine. “We certainly expect that tomorrow’s meeting in Minsk will feature a discussion on the humanitarian crisis,” Lavrov said. “We express hope that all participants will urge for the removal of any obstacles to smooth aid delivery to those who are most in need of it,” he added. The upcoming gathering will be attended by the Customs Union, the Ukrainian authorities and members of the EU. Sergey Lavrov was asked a wide range of questions on the situations in Ukraine, including the claims that Russian arms were crossing the border. Allegations of Russian attempts to smuggle military equipment into Ukraine are false and are the latest in a string of bad information that has been circulating in recent days, the minister said. No one, including Ukraine’s special services, could confirm those suspicions.

Lavrov went on to stress that reports of Russian forces crossing into Ukraine have not been confirmed by the OSCE, which is evidenced in their report. He further mentioned OSCE concerns that indiscriminate arrests carried out by the militias are beginning to resemble a “witch hunt.” The people migrating into the west are not being taken in, nor are their children being given places in schools, he stressed. If this is the sort of national unity Klichko, Tyangibok and Yatsenyuk spoke of, they lied to their own people, he said, referring to national unity agenda promoted by the leaders of opposition to former president Viktor Yanukovich. The minister was dismayed at the ongoing investigation into the downing of flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine, which aroused much controversy and finger-pointing. He said that at this point it would appear that Russia “seems to be the only interested party in giving this serious issue any further attention.”

Read more …

War In East Ukraine Leaves Economy In Ashes. Who Will Pay For Recovery? (RT)

The turmoil in eastern Ukraine has devastated the economy, putting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other Western backers under pressure to save the sinking financial wreck. “If the conflict lingers for another few months in its current form the cost to the Ukrainian economy would be huge,” Vitaly Vavryshchuk, an analyst at Kiev-based SP Advisors, told the Financial Times. The MF has delayed Ukraine’s second $1.4 billion aid installment, and now Kiev is asking to combine the third and fourth tranche into a $2.2 billion package, according to Ukraine’s Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak. In order for the loans to be disbursed, the IMF has to confirm the multi-billion dollar debt restructuring plan is sustainable, which it may not be at present. Gabriel Sterne of Oxford Economics predicts that Ukraine’s GDP-to-debt ratio is on the rise, and by 2018 could hit 87%. “We think the Ukraine economy and the IMF program face such difficulties that a default is likely, possibly imminent,” Sterne wrote in an August report.

“It could take the form of a ’precautionary’ default in which debt falling due over the next three years is forcibly rolled over. If there is a full-blown Russian invasion then deeper haircuts may be required,” Sterne wrote. The IMF approved a two-year $17 billion loan package in April, and the first disbursement of $3.2 billion was delivered in May. If the IMF program falls apart, the country faces default, which would further discredit the lending institution after its failed efforts in Greece and other debt-ridden economies. Before, the IMF money was a sure thing; now many analysts predicted Ukraine could default by the end of the year. Another looming financial burden hanging over Kiev is the $3 billion in Eurobonds issued from Russia in December 2013. Moscow can demand repayment before the bonds are due in 2015 if Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP surpasses 60%, which at present, seems likely. [..]

Gaping holes in Ukraine’s state budget and foreign reserves, and instability in financial markets have brought havoc to Ukraine’s macroeconomic situation. Ukraine’s Economy Minister Pavel Sheremeta resigned on Thursday frustrated with the slow pace of economic reform. Sheremeta, who was appointed soon after the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovich in February, said on his Facebook page that he no longer wanted to “fight against yesterday’s system.” Fitch Ratings predicts the economy will contract by 5% in 2014, a pretty conservative estimate compared to other analysis, which predict a 6.5% drop (IMF) or even 8% (Oxford Economics). In 2013, GDP growth was zero.

Read more …

Sanctions? Not us.

Russian Oil Company Rosneft To Take 30% Stake In Norwegian Driller (RT)

Russia’s biggest oil company Rosneft has agreed to purchase a stake in Norway’s North Atlantic Drilling (NADL) through an asset swap, which appears to show businesses remain undeterred by political sanctions. Rosneft has agreed to take a 30% of North Atlantic in return for 150 onshore drilling assets in Russia, and some cash. The final terms of the deal, including the amount of investments in the Norwegian company, will be set after it passes due diligence, which is expected to be done by the end of the year, Rosneft said in a statement Friday. Rune Magnus Lundetrae, Chief Financial Officer of Seadrill, which owns 70% of North Atlantic, told Bloomberg Rosneft would also buy 100 million new shares at $9.25 apiece. The deal comes amidst sanctions tension between Russia and the West and shows that foreign businesses still want to cooperate with Russia, leaving politics aside. “We’re very pleased with the execution of this important transaction and welcome Rosneft as an equity partner and to our board of directors,” Alf Ragnar Lovdal, CEO of North Atlantic, said in a statement.

“We’re not very worried” that the sanctions will affect any part of these deals, Lundetrae told Bloomberg by phone. “Rosneft is a very good and constructive partner for us.” Friday’s deal marks the second step under a framework agreement signed in May. Last month, just days before the EU imposed tighter economic sanctions against Russia; the two companies completed the lease of offshore rigs. Under the July agreement, Rosneft and NADL will cooperate in shelf drilling, with the Norwegian company providing Rosneft with six sea drilling units till 2022 to conduct shelf drilling in harsh weather conditions. ExxonMobil and Norway’s Statoil have also confirmed they would continue offshore Arctic drilling with Rosneft, despite politicians in the EU and the US seeking to make Russia change its policy over Ukraine by putting on economic pressure. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, was shelving its $2 billion deal with Rosneft.

Read more …

Is China About To Step On Stimulus Pedal Again? (CNBC)

As China’s fragile economic recovery loses momentum, expectations are growing that Beijing will unleash fresh stimulus to ensure delivery on its growth target of 7.5%. The last month has seen a slew of disappointing economic data – from manufacturing to credit growth – raising concerns that the world’s second-largest economy may be headed into a renewed soft patch. HSBC’s preliminary reading of China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the month of August dipped to 50.3 from July’s 18-month high of 51.7, missing forecasts for 51.5. Meanwhile, lending unexpectedly slowed in July. A broad measure of new credit stood at 273.1 billion yuan ($44.3 billion) the lowest monthly total since October 2008. Policymakers appear more nervous, particularly on the back of the weak credit growth, and will roll out more measures to bolster the economy, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist, Asia ex-Japan at Credit Agricole. He expects a re-acceleration of fiscal spending, expansion of the pledged supplementary lending program and a relaxation of the window guidance for bank lending.

Last Thursday, he raised his estimate on the likelihood of a system-wide reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the second-half to 35% from 25%. In June, the People’s Bank of China cut the level of reserves banks must hold for certain banks that have sizable loans to the farming sector and small- and medium-sized firms. “July will prove to be a bump on the road rather than the beginning of a serious downturn. Perhaps second half will be more difficult than first half was, but China will still achieve its growth target of ‘about 7.5%’,” he said. So far this year, the government has implemented targeted measures to support growth including accelerating spending on railways and other infrastructure projects and lowering tax rates for smaller companies, refraining from big-bang stimulus. Jiang Chang, China economist at Barclays agrees more policy easing is unavoidable. “The government faces a trade-off between ‘tolerating lower growth’ and ‘rolling out more stimulus’ amid a property market correction and uncertain external demand,” Chang wrote in a note published on Thursday.

Read more …

One trick pony.

Western Australia State Stripped of Top Credit Rating by Moody’s (Bloomberg)

Western Australia was stripped of its top credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service as the state’s increasing reliance on resource royalties threatens efforts to repair its finances. Moody’s lowered the state’s ranking to Aa1 from Aaa and changed its outlook to stable from negative, according to a statement today. The government’s assumptions for mining royalties are based on a “fairly optimistic forecast” for iron ore prices, while the state faces spending pressures due to rapid population growth, the ratings company said. “Western Australia’s debt burden has risen sharply in recent years,” Moody’s said. “The state will be hard pressed to meet its very low spending growth targets, unless the government’s fiscal resolve strengthens and new measures are identified.”

The spot price of iron ore, the state’s largest export, has dropped 33% since Dec. 31 to $90.10 a ton, according to The Steel Index. While Western Australia has based its spending plans on the price averaging $122.70 a ton this fiscal year, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the steelmaking material will hold closer to current levels through 2018. The downgrade by Moody’s follows Standard & Poor’s decision to remove its top credit grade last September. The state’s operating surplus for the current period was forecast at just A$175 million ($163 million) and the iron-ore plunge means inflows could be trailing estimates, according to revenue sensitivities provided in the state’s May budget. The government’s plans to address its fiscal problems “are positive steps but are not expected to lead to significant improvements in the near term,” Moody’s said. “Minimal improvement is expected in the financial performance in” the current financial year.

Read more …

Oh, great!

Microplastic Contaminates Found In Sydney Harbor Threat To Food Chain (ABC)

The bottom of Sydney Harbour has been contaminated by widespread microplastic pollution which could be entering the food chain, scientists say. Professor Emma Johnston from the Sydney Institute of Marine Science said the microplastics, or fragments of plastic less than five millimetres long, represented the “emergence of new contaminants in our harbours and waterways”. In the first study of its kind, 27 sites were tested across the harbour, with researchers discovering up to 60 microplastics per 100 milligrams of sediment. The environmental effects of the contaminants are largely unknown, but there have been moves to ban their use in products overseas. Professor Johnston said some of the microplastic contamination was coming directly into the harbour. “For example when we wash our fleecy jackets in the washing machine, lots of particles of microplastics, thin threads, come off and enter our waterways,” she said. “But there are also microplastics from facial scrubs and there are breakdown products from macro debris, like plastic bags or plastic bottles.”

A PhD candidate at the University of New South Wales, Vivian Sim, said several hotspots were identified and the worst-affected area was in the pristine-looking waters of Middle Harbour. “Something interesting is going on here, but we’re not sure what,” she said. In Middle Harbour, microplastic threads were more common than flakes or balls, but it was unclear where they came from. “We should be worried about it,” Ms Sim said. “We actually managed to pull up a sipunculid worm today. “It’s got sand going through all of it, so you can see that it’s ingesting it. “So if your microplastic fragments are as small as a sand grain, then [the worm] is going to take up the plastics and contaminants, and then if something else comes along and eats that worm it’s going to go further up the food chain.” It was not clear what impact microplastics were having on the organisms that were eating them, but Professor Johnston said some contained materials such as flame retardants.

Read more …

Lots of areas where it’s hard to keep track of what goes on. And densely populated.

British Ebola Victim Flown Home As Epidemic Spreads To Congo (Reuters)

A British medical worker was flown home from West Africa on Sunday after becoming the first Briton infected in an Ebola epidemic, and a separate new outbreak of the disease was detected in Democratic Republic of Congo. A specially adapted Royal Air Force cargo plane picked up the male healthcare worker in Sierra Leone on Sunday after British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond authorized his repatriation for treatment. The Department of Health said the patient – whose identity has not been disclosed – was “not currently seriously unwell”. The man will be transported to an isolation unit at the Royal Free Hospital in London.

The hemorrhagic fever has killed at least 1,427 people, mostly in Sierra Leone, Liberia and neighboring Guinea, the deadliest outbreak of the disease to date. The disease also has a toehold in Nigeria, where it has killed five people. In Democratic Republic of Congo, Health Minister Felix Kabange Numbi said an Ebola outbreak had been confirmed in the remote northern Equateur province – 1,200 km (750 miles) from the capital Kinshasa – but it was a different strain of the virus from the West African one. There have been six outbreaks of Ebola in Democratic Republic of Congo since the disease was discovered there in 1976, with a total of more than 760 deaths. The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that more than 225 health workers have fallen ill and nearly 130 have lost their lives to Ebola since the West African outbreak was detected in the jungles of southeast Guinea in March.

Read more …

Sierra Leone ‘Hero’ Doctor’s Death Exposes Slow Ebola Response (Reuters)

When two American aid workers recovered from Ebola after being treated with an experimental drug, the grieving family of Sierra Leone’s most famous doctor wondered why he had been denied the same treatment before he died from the deadly virus. Sheik Umar Khan was a hero in his small West African country for leading the fight against the worst ever outbreak of the highly contagious hemorrhagic fever, which has killed 1,427 people mostly in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. When Khan fell sick in late July, he was rushed to a treatment unit run by Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) where doctors debated whether to give him ZMapp, a drug tested on laboratory animals but never before used on humans. Staff agonised over the ethics of favouring one individual over hundreds of others and the risk of a popular backlash if the untried treatment was perceived as killing a national hero. In the end, they decided against using ZMapp. Khan died on 29 July, plunging his country into mourning.

A few days later, the California-manufactured pharmaceutical was administered to US aid workers Kent Brantly and Nancy Writebol who contracted Ebola in Liberia and were flown home for treatment. It is not clear what role ZMapp played in their recovery but the two left hospital in Atlanta last week. Khan is among nearly 100 African healthcare workers to have paid the ultimate price for fighting Ebola, as the region’s medical systems have been overwhelmed by an epidemic which many say could have been contained if the world had acted quicker. In their village of Mahera, in northern Sierra Leone, Khan’s elderly parents and siblings asked why he did not get the treatment. Khan saved hundreds of lives during a decade battling Lassa fever – a disease similar to Ebola – at his clinic in Kenema and was Sierra Leone’s only expert on haemorrhagic fever. “If it was good enough for Americans, it should have been good enough for my brother,” said C-Ray, his elder brother, as he sat on the porch of the family home. “It’s not logical that it wasn’t used. He had nothing to lose if it hadn’t worked.”

Read more …

Cascading dominoes.

500 Methane Vents Detected On Ocean Floor Off US East Coast (BBC)

Researchers say they have found more than 500 bubbling methane vents on the seafloor off the US east coast. The unexpected discovery indicates there are large volumes of the gas contained in a type of sludgy ice called methane hydrate. There are concerns that these new seeps could be making a hitherto unnoticed contribution to global warming. The scientists say there could be about 30,000 of these hidden methane vents worldwide. Previous surveys along the Atlantic seaboard have shown only three seep areas beyond the edge of the US continental shelf. The team behind the new findings studied what is termed the continental margin, the region of the ocean floor that stands between the coast and the deep ocean. In an area between North Carolina and Massachusetts, they have now found at least 570 seeps at varying depths between 50m and 1,700m.

Their findings came as a bit of a surprise. “It is the first time we have seen this level of seepage outside the Arctic that is not associated with features like oil or gas reservoirs or active tectonic margins,” said Prof Adam Skarke from Mississippi State University, who led the study. The scientists have observed streams of bubbles but they have not yet sampled the gas within them. However, they believe there is an abundance of circumstantial evidence pointing to methane. Most of the seeping vents were located around 500m down, which is just the right temperature and pressure to create a sludgy confection of ice and gas called methane hydrate, or clathrate. The scientists say that the warming of ocean temperatures might be causing these hydrates to send bubbles of gas drifting through the water column. They do not appear to be reaching the surface. “The methane is dissolving into the ocean at depths of hundreds of metres and being oxidised to CO2,” said Prof Skarke.

Read more …

Flaring, though it’s not mentioned in the article, is a very polluting “acitivity”.

Inside North Dakota’s Latest Fracking Problem (CNBC)

From his driveway, Tom Wheeler’s view of North Dakota’s sprawling grasslands seems endless. Fields of soy, wheat and canola stretch to the horizon in all directions. But as drillers flock to the state to cash in on North Dakota’s booming shale play, that horizon has become increasingly marked by natural gas flares. Wheeler, 59, owns 3,000 acres of farmland in Ray, the heart of the state’s oil-rich Bakken Basin, one of the world’s largest shale formations. Shale gas is natural gas, which is found trapped within shale formations. Still farming the land his grandfather homesteaded in 1902, Wheeler can give a first-hand account of the oil industry’s boom and bust cycles in North Dakota, sometimes known as the “Roughrider State.” During the area’s last boom in the ’70s, Wheeler spent his winters working on an oil rig. And while he knows just how much an energy surge can change a community, he’s never experienced one that’s transformed the landscape quite like the recent boom. “In the ’70s we had so many dry holes that you never noticed the flares,” Wheeler said.

“But now every well is productive—and the flares are everywhere.” In the Bakken, flaring has become synonymous with drilling. The prairies—once dotted only with cattle and an occasional lazy oil derrick—are now marked by thousands of flares, open pits or steel pipes burning off excess natural gas, a byproduct of the rapid rise in oil drilling. New wells are coming online so quickly that the pipeline infrastructure for natural gas has not been able to keep pace. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, forces natural gas and crude oil out of shale buried deep below the earth by using highly pressurized and treated water. Drillers seek out valuable crude oil, but natural gas comes out of the ground, too. Flaring is the burning of natural gas that can’t be processed or sold.All those flares, meanwhile, are adding up. They burn so brightly that NASA astronauts have taken pictures of their glow from space. Many oil drillers are unable to direct the flow of natural gas coming off wells into existing pipelines, which already are at full capacity.

Now regulators are cracking down. North Dakota passed new flaring standards, with the goal of capturing more natural gas. Energy companies are scrambling to meet the rules and curb flaring—some with creative technologies. In Ray, Hess has a gas compression station bordering Wheeler’s property. Natural gas is pumped from several surrounding oil wells, before being transported to a larger processing facility in Tioga. A four-burner flare sounds like a jet engine, and the 20-foot flame, sitting atop the 30-foot torch, can be seen for miles. “It’s not just a waste to the landowner or the tax collector, it’s a waste of the land’s natural product,” Wheeler said. “When I was growing up, we were taught not to waste anything.” Every day, drillers in the Bakken burn off about 350 million cubic feet of natural gas. That comes to more than $100 million worth of gas burned off each month – a figure that makes the state’s mineral rights holders’ unhappy. There are at least 12 class-action law suits filed against the drillers by mineral rights holders seeking lost revenue.

Read more …

Jul 292014
 
 July 29, 2014  Posted by at 3:49 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , ,  15 Responses »


Arthur Rothstein Elm Street, Theater Row, Dallas Jan 1942

I don’t think it’s ever a good sign, no matter how funny it may look, when the US state Department makes one think of Monty Python. But it does. With a Silly Claims instead of Silly Walks department. Would these people really sit around a big table in the evening and brainstorm about what anti-Russia statement to feed to the press the next morning? What else could possibly be going on here? I mean, just look at this bit from the New York Times:

US Says Russia Tested Cruise Missile, Violating Treaty

The United States has concluded that Russia violated a landmark arms control treaty by testing a prohibited ground-launched cruise missile, according to senior American officials, a finding that was conveyed by President Obama to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in a letter on Monday. It is the most serious allegation of an arms control treaty violation that the Obama administration has leveled against Russia [..]

At the heart of the issue is the 1987 treaty that bans American and Russian ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles capable of flying 300 to 3,400 miles. That accord, which was signed by President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, helped seal the end of the Cold War and has been regarded as a cornerstone of American-Russian arms control efforts.

Russia first began testing the cruise missiles as early as 2008, according to American officials, and the Obama administration concluded by the end of 2011 that they were a compliance concern. In May 2013, Rose Gottemoeller, the State Department’s senior arms control official, first raised the possibility of a violation with Russian officials. The New York Times reported in January that American officials had informed the NATO allies that Russia had tested a ground-launched cruise missile [..]

If we are to believe the NYT, Russia started testing the system 6 years ago, it then took the US at least 3 years to ‘conclude’ it was ‘a compliance concern’, another 18 months or so to ‘raise the possibility of a violation with Russian officials’, 8 more months after that to inform NATO – and have the NYT write it up – and another half year on top of that for Obama to write a letter to ‘President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia’ (excellent choice of title, love the extra V.) and feed the press.

Whereas we can all agree that timing is everything, how many of you recognize that any and every single day over the past 6 years and change would have been better to go public with this than today? In all the papers, we can read that ‘Senior American officials’ stress that this is ‘a serious violation’.

Look, we know you’re trying to make Russia look bad. We get it. But we also know that if this would have been such a serious violation, you would have spoken out a long time ago. We therefore have no other choice but to file this under ‘whatever’. And wait with glee for what you come up with tomorrow.

By the way, while reading up on this, I happenstanced upon something else in the field of nuclear treaties. And since you guys insisted on putting us in Python mood, here goes. This is from the Santa Barbara Independent:

Feds Looks to Quash Nuclear Treaty Lawsuit

Federal attorneys have made their first big move to dismiss a lawsuit that alleges the United States, along with eight other countries, has violated a 46-year-old treaty to dismantle its nuclear arsenal. The lawsuit was filed in April — in U.S. Federal Court as well as in the International Court of Justice in The Hague – by the tiny Pacific nation of the Marshall Islands, which the U.S. bombarded with nuclear weapons tested between 1946 and 1958. Marshall Islands officials maintain that radioactive fallout from the tests sickened citizens and rendered some territories unlivable.

“Our people have suffered the catastrophic and irreparable damage of these weapons,” said Marshall Islands Foreign Minister Tony de Brum in May, “and we vow to fight so that no one else on Earth will ever again experience these atrocities.” The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was signed in 1968 and mandates that the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea “pursue negotiations in good faith” to end the nuclear arms race “at an early date and to work toward worldwide nuclear disarmament.”

Attorneys for the Marshall Islands argue that the countries have instead increased and modernized their nukes over the decades. [..] In the fed’s Motion to Dismiss, the government claims the lawsuit should be thrown out because of procedural and jurisdictional issues. “The U.S.… does not argue that the U.S. is in compliance with its NPT disarmament obligations,” the NAPF explained in a prepared statement. “Instead, it argues in a variety of ways that its non-compliance with these obligations is, essentially, justifiable, and not subject to the court’s jurisdiction.”

That doesn’t exactly make that claim against Russia look better, does it? Anything else? Alright then, moving on. The Financial Times has a particularly spicy rendering of the Yukos lawsuit story in which Russia was ordered to pay $50 billion in damages:

‘Yukos Is Insignificant, There Is A War Coming In Europe’

Beleaguered shareholders of Yukos could scarcely have imagined when they launched arbitration in 2005 they would one day be awarded $50bn in damages – nor that the ruling would be released into the febrile atmosphere that exists between Russia and the west today.

Just six months ago, say legal experts, Russia still seemed interested in being part of international “clubs” like the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the group of mainly rich countries. As the Ukraine crisis worsens, protecting its international reputation no longer seems a priority. “If one were to be quite cynical, I think the reputational consequences for Russia [of not paying] will be very limited indeed, because they have already been through a lot of things,” said Loukas Mistelis, director of the School of International Arbitration at Queen Mary University of London. “I think they would be prepared to take quite a bit of risk.” [..]

… if Russian state businesses find themselves hit both by western sanctions and attempts to seize assets by Yukos shareholders, relations between the Kremlin and the west could sour further. One person close to Mr Putin said the Yukos ruling was insignificant in light of the bigger geopolitical stand-off over Ukraine.

“There is a war coming in Europe,” he said. “Do you really think this matters?”

I don’t know. I catch myself thinking at times that there’s already a war going on in Europe. It could certainly expand and accelerate a lot further, but the sanctions the US and EU intend to slam on Russia sure look like economic warfare to me. As do the innuendo, the lack of evidence, the constant stream of smear stories leaked through fuzzy channels, it all fits the picture.

The Yukos case is already causing people to wake up from various stages of slumber. BP reported ‘great’ profits today, largely from their interest in Russian oil giant Rosneft (got to love the irony), but it also said the sanctions that are being prepared could hurt its shares, because it has a 19% stake in Rosneft.

What it didn’t say out loud, but what is certainly an added threat, is that the parties who won the case can now go sue BP to get their $50 billion. Because of the same 19% stake. And given that many of the stakeholders of the other 81% will be hard to go after, BP could face a bit of a problem.

But something tells me that’s still not Beyond Petroleum’s biggest worry: the deals with Rosneft gave it the prospect of actual recognized fossil fuel reserves, something BP, like all western oil behemoths, has far too little of. Exxon, too, has Rosneft deals, as does Norway’s Statoil, both for Arctic drilling projects. Shell, though Sakhalin developement(s), may well be the largest foreign investor in Russia.

At some point Big Oil will need to write down reserves; at some point their shares will fall for real. That sanctions originating in western anti-Putin sentiments may accelerate the process is something that, I’m not even sorry to say it, amuses me.

To get some perspective on the whole story, here are a few principle ideas it is based on. The west – US and EU – tries to squeeze Russia, and Rosneft. The west also – so far – seems to think this would surprise Putin and hurt his plans. Many people for instance claim that he will lose popularity at home if his economy takes a southbound turn.

Me, I’m not so sure. I think Putin must have seen all of this coming from a long time and a long distance away. The US keeps trying to pull him into proxy wars, but he’s not biting (which is why they turn to unsubstantiated claims).

Russian speaking Ukrainians are getting killed by the dozen with western support, and he must detest that. But sending in his troops would be just what the west wants, and it would lead to far more bloodshed. As long as he and his people officially stay on sovereign Russian soil, he’s OK.

As for economic sanctions, Russia is not that vulnerable. While the US tries to break the bond between Russia and Europe, Russia can try the same for the bond between US and EU. What’s more, Putin knows the ‘leadership’ in Brussels is not overly competent, and dreams away in grand visions of power, of an equal partnership with their American friends. Vladimir V. knows the US has no intention of granting Brussels any such power.

The sanctions will eventually lead to either a break between US and EU -because European business interests get hurt too much -, or – more likely for now – it will lead to $200 a barrel oil, huge increases in EU heating costs and a sharp dip in the euro that will make that $200 a lot more still.

Putin’s fine either way. Sell 50% less to Europe at 100% higher prices, why not? Let’s see EU member Slovakia send Russian gas back to Ukraine – or however that reverse flow is supposed to work -. Putin can simply cut overall gas delivery to Europe by 25%, and 50% if they try it again. There’s no love lost between Putin and Europe in the aftermath of the crash and the things that have been said about him.

And I think Vladimir must know how the US feels about this. Washington sees the advantages of making Europe their bitch, pardon my French. With half of the old world in the cold come winter, the US can greatly enhance its influence there. The Americans think that with their domestic shale wealth – they’re wrong, but they think it -, $200 a barrel oil in international markets would suit them just fine for a while.

As I said last week, we have entered the next phase in the energy equals power battle, and we entered it for good. This should be evident from looking at the sanctions and the Yukos case, and the fall-out this will have on western oil companies. You can be a big wig in Brussels and feel nice about yourself negotiating punishments for Vladimir V. Putin, but that doesn’t mean you’re ready to play with the big boys. And from here on in, it’s a big boys game only.

Note: Holland announced today that 195 of the 298 people who died in the MH17 crash had the Dutch nationality; some had dual citizenship. The one person they added to the list was a 2-year old girl. Isn’t that just the saddest thing on the planet? And then the US and EU have the audacity to play a propaganda war over that, blaming people for killing that little girl without any proof? Also, finally, 12 days after the crash, the Dutch government is calling on Ukraine to stop the fighting on the crash site and let forensic experts do their job. President Poroshenko has promised for while that they would. But nothing changed. There are still dozens of bodies and body parts decomposing in the fields. Best remember who your friends are. Same question again: who’s commanding that army?

But hey, stock markets are up … What more can we ask for?

‘Yukos Is Insignificant, There Is A War Coming In Europe’ (FT)

Beleaguered shareholders of Yukos could scarcely have imagined when they launched arbitration in 2005 they would one day be awarded $50bn in damages – nor that the ruling would be released into the febrile atmosphere that exists between Russia and the west today. The award is a landmark not just for its size – 20 times the previous record for an arbitration ruling. The tribunal also found definitively that Russia’s pursuit of Yukos and its independently-minded main shareholder, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a decade ago was politically motivated. Through inflated tax claims, the ruling said, senior officials set out to destroy Russia’s then biggest oil company, transfer its assets to a state-controlled competitor – Rosneft – and put Mr Khodorkovsky in jail. “The tribunal confirmed what the [Yukos shareholders] have been saying all along,” said Tim Osborne, director of GML, the Yukos holding company. [..]

Just six months ago, say legal experts, Russia still seemed interested in being part of international “clubs” like the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the group of mainly rich countries. As the Ukraine crisis worsens, protecting its international reputation no longer seems a priority. “If one were to be quite cynical, I think the reputational consequences for Russia [of not paying] will be very limited indeed, because they have already been through a lot of things,” said Loukas Mistelis, director of the School of International Arbitration at Queen Mary University of London. “I think they would be prepared to take quite a bit of risk.” [..]

Emmanuel Gaillard of Shearman & Sterling, which represented the Yukos claimants, said he was confident of eventually “piercing the veil” around assets of Russian state companies such as Rosneft, the oil company, and the natural gas monopoly, Gazprom. He added that the principle that state-controlled businesses could be a kind of proxy for the state was already inherent in sanctions over Ukraine against companies such as Rosneft – which has been targeted by the US. But if Russian state businesses find themselves hit both by western sanctions and attempts to seize assets by Yukos shareholders, relations between the Kremlin and the west could sour further. One person close to Mr Putin said the Yukos ruling was insignificant in light of the bigger geopolitical stand-off over Ukraine. “There is a war coming in Europe,” he said. “Do you really think this matters?”

Read more …

BP: Russia Still Key As Production Set To Dip (CNBC)

BP, the U.K. oil giant, announced a 34% rise in profits Tuesday – but its results highlighted concerns over its important Russian joint venture. The company’s 19.75% stake in Rosneft is regularly cited as one of the most lucrative deals which could be threatened if sanctions imposed against Russia in the light of the Ukrainian crisis escalate. The company confirmed these concerns in the statement accompanying its second-quarter results: “If further international sanctions are imposed on Rosneft or new sanctions are imposed on Russia or other Russian individuals or entities, this could have a material adverse impact on our relationship with and investment in Rosneft, our business and strategic objectives in Russia and our financial position and results of operations.”

BP also warned that third-quarter production would be lower than the second quarter, blaming seasonal slowing. Output from the Gulf of Mexico helped push overall underlying production of oil and gas, excluding Russia, up by over 3% compared to a year earlier. The company also hiked its provision for litigation related to the Gulf of Mexico oil by $260 million, bringing the total potential bill for the accident to $43 billion.

Read more …

BP Warns On Russia Sanctions Despite Rosneft Profits (Guardian)

BP has earned bumper profits from its stake in the Kremlin-controlled oil company Rosneft since the start of the year, but warned investors that it could be hurt by western sanctions against Russia. The FTSE 100 company, which owns one fifth of Russia’s largest oil company, made $1.6bn (£950m) from Rosneft in the first six months of 2014, an 80% increase on last year. On top of this BP was paid a $700m dividend from Rosneft in July. But with the European Union poised to announce tougher sanctions against Russia, BP acknowledged that its reputation was at stake over its ties with the Russian state oil giant. “Further economic sanctions could adversely impact our business and strategic objectives in Russia, the level of our income, production and reserves, our investment in Rosneft and our reputation,” the company said. Earlier this month the United States added Rosneft to its sanctions list and EU is expected to approve a ban on the export of advanced technology that could be used to drill for oil in Russia.

Igor Sechin, the chairman of Rosneft and a close friend of President Vladimir Putin, has been on the US sanctions list since April. As EU leaders have struggled to keep a united front amid the conflict in eastern Ukraine, BP has stuck to a business-as-usual policy with Russia. In May BP and Rosneft struck a deal to exploit shale reserves in the Urals at a ceremony attended by Putin at the St Petersburg Economic Forum, a Russian Davos that was shunned by many other western business leaders. BP’s exposure to Russia was highlighted on Monday when a tribunal in the Hague ruled that Rosneft had been the prime beneficiary from a “devious and calculated expropriation” by the Russian government against Yukos, once Russia’s largest private oil company, broken up by the Russian government after its boss fell foul of Putin. Rosneft went on to acquire Yukos’s prime assets at rock-bottom prices. Shareholders have vowed to pursue Rosneft for a $50bn damages claim and indicated they may also pursue BP.

Read more …

Ambrose gets a lot wrong here.

BP’s Faustian Pact With Russia Goes Horribly Wrong With Yukos Verdict (AEP)

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has thrown the book at the Russian state, or more specifically at Vladimir Putin and his Soliviki circle from the security services. The $51.5bn ruling against the Kremlin unveiled this morning has no precedent in international law. The damages are 20 times larger than any previous verdict. Lawyers for the Yukos-MGL-Khodorkovsky team tell me that they cannot pursue the foreign bond holdings of the Russian central bank if the Kremlin refuses to pay up when the deadline expires on January 15, as seems likely. Moscow has already dismissed the case as “politically motivated”. Nor can they go after embassies and other sovereign assets that enjoy diplomatic immunity, though they are eyeing a list of Russian state targets that slipped through the net. What they can certainly do – and have every intention of doing – is attacking the assets of state-owned companies that act as instruments of the Russian government.

Above all, they intend to pursue Rosneft, the venture built from the expropriated assets of Yukos. That means they also intend to pursue BP (indirectly), since BP owns a fifth of Rosneft shares as a legacy from the TNK-BP debacle. Rosneft is the world’s biggest traded oil company with production of 4m barrels a day. It is run by Mr Putin’s close friend Igor Sechin, a former KGB operative in Africa, a loyalist in Mr Putin’s political machine in St Petersburg, and the architect of Russia’s energy strategy for the last decade. The Court’s ruling made it clear that Rosneft is not a commercial company with a (passive) state shareholder. It said the Rosneft was “the vehicle” used to expropriate Yukos and has acted as an instrument of the state. Mr Putin himself said at the time that the purpose was to reverse the giveaway privatisation of Russia’s natural resources and sovereign heirlooms in the bandit era of the 1990s. “The State, resorting to absolutely legal market mechanisms, is looking after its own interest,” he said.

Read more …

US Says Russia Tested Cruise Missile, Violating Treaty (NY Times)

The United States has concluded that Russia violated a landmark arms control treaty by testing a prohibited ground-launched cruise missile, according to senior American officials, a finding that was conveyed by President Obama to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in a letter on Monday. It is the most serious allegation of an arms control treaty violation that the Obama administration has leveled against Russia and adds another dispute to a relationship already burdened by tensions over the Kremlin’s support for separatists in Ukraine and its decision to grant asylum to Edward J. Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor. At the heart of the issue is the 1987 treaty that bans American and Russian ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles capable of flying 300 to 3,400 miles. That accord, which was signed by President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, helped seal the end of the Cold War and has been regarded as a cornerstone of American-Russian arms control efforts.

Russia first began testing the cruise missiles as early as 2008, according to American officials, and the Obama administration concluded by the end of 2011 that they were a compliance concern. In May 2013, Rose Gottemoeller, the State Department’s senior arms control official, first raised the possibility of a violation with Russian officials. The New York Times reported in January that American officials had informed the NATO allies that Russia had tested a ground-launched cruise missile, raising serious concerns about Russia’s compliance with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or I.N.F. Treaty as it is commonly called. The State Department said at the time that the issue was under review and that the Obama administration was not yet ready to formally declare it to be a treaty violation.

In recent months, however, the issue has been taken up by top-level officials, including a meeting early this month of the Principals’ Committee, a cabinet-level body that includes Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, the defense secretary, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the secretary of state and the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Senior officials said the president’s most senior advisers unanimously agreed that the test was a serious violation, and the allegation will be made public soon in the State Department’s annual report on international compliance with arms control agreements. “The United States has determined that the Russian Federation is in violation of its obligations under the I.N.F. treaty not to possess, produce or flight test a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) with a range capability of 500 kilometers to 5,500 kilometers or to possess or produce launchers of such missiles,” that report will say.

Read more …

US Looks to Quash Nuclear Treaty Lawsuit (Santa Barbara Independent)

Federal attorneys have made their first big move to dismiss a lawsuit that alleges the United States, along with eight other countries, has violated a 46-year-old treaty to dismantle its nuclear arsenal. The lawsuit was filed in April — in U.S. Federal Court as well as in the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands — by the the tiny Pacific nation of the Marshall Islands, which the U.S. bombarded with nuclear weapons tested between 1946 and 1958. Marshall Islands officials maintain that radioactive fallout from the tests sickened citizens and rendered some territories unlivable.

“Our people have suffered the catastrophic and irreparable damage of these weapons,” said Marshall Islands Foreign Minister Tony de Brum in May, “and we vow to fight so that no one else on Earth will ever again experience these atrocities.” The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was signed in 1968 and mandates that the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea “pursue negotiations in good faith” to end the nuclear arms race “at an early date and to work toward worldwide nuclear disarmament.”

Attorneys for the Marshall Islands – and with the law firm Keller Rohrback LLP, which has an office in Santa Barbara and specializes in constitutional and treaty law – argue that the countries have instead increased and modernized their nukes over the decades. Santa Barbara’s Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF) is a consultant to the Marshall Islands on the legal and moral issues involved in the case, which has received attention all over the globe and the support of Nobel Prize winners. In the fed’s Motion to Dismiss, the government claims the lawsuit should be thrown out because of procedural and jurisdictional issues. “The U.S.… does not argue that the U.S. is in compliance with its NPT disarmament obligations,” the NAPF explained in a prepared statement. “Instead, it argues in a variety of ways that its non-compliance with these obligations is, essentially, justifiable, and not subject to the court’s jurisdiction.”

Read more …

Very good point.

Fed Creates Asset Bubbles To Paper Over Decline In Quality Of Life (Phoenix)

Many commentators have previously argued that the Fed is too dumb or too inept to identify of categorize asset bubbles. By focusing on the Fed’s mental acuity, these commentators are overlooking a key factor: the Fed WANTS asset bubbles. The reason for this? Asset bubbles, at least according to the Fed’s models, will paper over the steady decline in quality of life that began in the US roughly 50 years ago. This fact is staring everyone in the face, though few people make it explicit. Back in the 1950s, the average American family had one working parent and was able to get by just fine. Today, most families have two working parents, sometimes working more than two jobs and they’re still not able to live a stable life. Indeed, a 2012 study by NYU Professor Edward Wolff found that the median net worth of American households was at a 43-YEAR LOW. The average American in the 21st century was in worse shape than his 1970s counterpart. This process began to accelerate in the late ‘90s. Indeed, looking at real media household income, one can see clearly that things have generally been downhill for nearly 20 years now.

It is not coincidence that the Fed began blowing serial bubbles starting in the late ‘90s. The Fed is aware on some level that quality of life in the US has fallen. The Fed’s answer, rather than focus on items that it doesn’t understand (job growth, income growth, etc.) was to blow bubbles to paper over this decline. This is why we’ve had bubble after bubble after bubble in the last 15 years. The Fed doesn’t have a clue how to create jobs or boost incomes. Why would it? Most of the Fed’s Presidents are academics with no real world business experience. Instead, the Fed believes in the “wealth effect” or the theory that when housing prices or stock prices soar, people feel wealthier and so go out and spend more money. This theory is baloney. People spend based on their incomes, NOT the value of their homes or portfolios.

After all, both assets only convert into actual cash once the owner sells the asset. Anyone who goes out and spends more money because their home went up in value will only end up with credit card debt, which combined with their mortgage, puts an even greater strain on their financial resources. The Fed wants asset bubbles because they hide the rot within the US economy. If the Fed didn’t raise stock or housing prices, people might actually start to wonder… “hey, why is my life getting more and more difficult despite the fact that I’m working all the time?” The Fed wants bubbles. So we’re doomed to keep experiencing them and the subsequent crashes.

Read more …

Agree.

Housing Bubble May Pop Entire U.K. Economy (Bloomberg)

You may not want to bring this up at any London dinner parties, but there are tentative signs that the bubble in U.K. housing prices that’s helped boost the economic recovery by underpinning consumer confidence may be running out of puff. Given the British obsession with home ownership, any evidence of real-estate deflation will complicate the Bank of England’s efforts to nudge borrowing costs higher. July marked the first month of no growth in London house prices since December 2012, according to figures last week from research company Hometrack Ltd. A different gauge showed the slowest pace of London gains in 15 months in June, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. And today, Lloyds Banking Group’s mortgage-lending unit reported that only five% of people say the coming year is a good time to buy a home, a 29-point drop in just three months.

With earnings still in the dumps – wages grew just 0.3% in May, while annual inflation was 1.5% – houses are becoming less and less affordable, hence the U.K. central bank’s imposition of new rules on mortgage lending in recent months. Some 71% of U.K. couples with at least one child own their own homes, rising to 80% for childless couples; U.S. home ownership is 65%, while in the euro region the rate is about 67%. Prices in the futures market suggest investors are currently less concerned about the Bank of England’s appetite for interest-rate increases than they were five weeks ago, when Mark Carney first raised the prospect of a shot across the bows of the monetary-policy landscape.

Read more …

How much longer till Nippon sinks into the ocean?

Japan’s Retail Sales Drop in Challenge to Abe Reflation (Bloomberg)

Japan’s retail sales fell more than forecast in June, capping a weak quarter that challenges Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s bid to reflate the economy while heaping a heavier tax burden on consumers. Sales dropped 0.6% from a year earlier, the trade ministry said in Tokyo today, steeper than a median forecast for a 0.5% decline in a Bloomberg News survey. In the second quarter, sales slumped 7% from the previous three months. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is counting on consumers to bear a higher sales levy even as the Bank of Japan drives the cost of living upward with record monetary easing. The risk is that spending fails to regain vigor, sapping strength from an economy lacking support from exports.

“The government and the BOJ say the economy is recovering from the slowdown after the sales-tax increase, but it’s too early to tell,” said Koya Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “There’s a chance consumption will remain below year-earlier levels in the July-September quarter.” Abe’s effort to stoke a sustained recovery in domestic demand is running up against a failure of companies to pass along record cash holdings in the form of higher wages that could help households cope with rising prices and the heavier tax burden.

Read more …

China Trade Numbers Still Don’t Add Up Post-Fake Exports (Bloomberg)

China’s trade numbers still don’t add up. A discrepancy between Hong Kong and Chinese figures for bilateral trade remains even after a crackdown last year on Chinese companies’ use of fake export-invoicing to evade limits on importing foreign currency. China recorded $1.31 of exports to Hong Kong in June for every $1 in imports Hong Kong tallied from China, for a $6.4 billion difference, based on government data compiled by Bloomberg News. Analysts offered at least three possible explanations for the gap, including differences in how China and Hong Kong record trade in goods that pass through the city, as well as a persistence in fraud at a lower level. Any discrepancies make it tougher to gauge the impact of global demand on a Chinese economy that’s projected for the slowest growth in 24 years. “Sporadic fake exports certainly still exist,” said Hu Yifan, chief economist at Haitong International Securities Co. in Hong Kong.

The longer the data gap remains at this level, the more likely it’s a permanent fixture: “If the ratio stays at 1.3 throughout the year, I think that’s consistent,” Hu said. Distortions in China’s trade data have abated since the State Administration of Foreign Exchange started a campaign in May 2013 to curb money flows disguised as trade payments. The initial crackdown may have failed to eliminate deception. SAFE said in December that it would boost scrutiny of trade financing and that banks should prevent companies from getting financing based on fabricated trade. The State Administration of Taxation said earlier this month that it found instances of fraudulent exports used to obtain tax rebates by some companies. “You can’t exclude the possibility that capital flows are being disguised as exports” in the China-Hong Kong figures, said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “As the capital account becomes more open, the flows will show up in the places they should.”

Read more …

Mind you: ‘Unexpectedly’.

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Unexpectedly Decrease (Bloomberg)

Fewer Americans than forecast signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in June, a sign residential real estate is struggling to strengthen. The index of pending home sales declined 1.1% from the month before after rising 6% in May, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected sales would rise 0.5%. Limited availability of credit and sluggish wage growth are making it harder for prospective buyers to take the plunge, threatening to throttle the pace of the housing recovery.

Continued gains in employment and a bigger supply of available homes will be needed to help accelerate the industry’s progress, which Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said is lackluster. “Unfortunately, I don’t see much of an acceleration in housing demand going forward until we get a significant improvement in the labor market and the income part of it in particular,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York, who forecast a 1% decrease in pending sales. “An uneven recovery in the housing market is really one of the biggest concerns of the Fed.”

Read more …

Short on moral values. Not uncommon among the rich.

Qatar World Cup Migrant Workers Not Paid For A Year (Guardian)

Migrant workers who built luxury offices used by Qatar’s 2022 football World Cup organisers have told the Guardian they have not been paid for more than a year and are now working illegally from cockroach-infested lodgings. Officials in Qatar’s Supreme Committee for Delivery and Legacy have been using offices on the 38th and 39th floors of Doha’s landmark al-Bidda skyscraper – known as the Tower of Football – which were fitted out by men from Nepal, Sri Lanka and India who say they have not been paid for up to 13 months’ work. The project, a Guardian investigation shows, was directly commissioned by the Qatar government and the workers’ plight is set to raise fresh doubts over the autocratic emirate’s commitment to labour rights as construction starts this year on five new stadiums for the World Cup.

The offices, which cost £2.5m to fit, feature expensive etched glass, handmade Italian furniture, and even a heated executive toilet, project sources said. Yet some of the workers have not been paid, despite complaining to the Qatari authorities months ago and being owed wages as modest as £6 a day. By the end of this year, several hundred thousand extra migrant workers from some of the world’s poorest countries are scheduled to have travelled to Qatar to build World Cup facilities and infrastructure. The acceleration in the building programme comes amid international concern over a rising death toll among migrant workers and the use of forced labour.

Read more …

The Agricultural Holocaust Explained: GMOs (Natural News)

Here are the top 10 ways GMOs threaten us all:

#1) Every grain of GM corn contains poison
#2) GMOs have never been safety tested for human consumption
#3) GMOs transform farming freedom into farming servitude
#4) GMOs run the very real risk of runaway self-replicating genetic pollution and ecocide
#5) GMO agriculture is breeding a new generation of chemical-resistant superweeds
#6) GMOs may have long-term unintended consequences on the environment
#7) GMOs collapse biodiversity
#8) GMOs put control over the food supply into the hands of profit-driven corporations
#9) GMOs may be harming pollinators
#10) The kind of scientists who collaborate with biotech companies are the most dishonest, corrupt and unethical scientists in our world

Read more …

I’m shocked!

UK Bee Research Funded By Pesticide Manufacturers (Guardian)

Criticial future research on the plight of bees risks being tainted by corporate funding, according to a report from MPs published on Monday. Pollinators play a vital role in fertilising three-quarters of all food crops but have declined due to loss of habitat, disease and pesticide use. New scientific research forms a key part of the government’s plan to boost pollinators but will be funded by pesticide manufacturers. UK environment ministers failed in their attempt in 2013 to block an EU-wide ban on some insecticides linked to serious harm in bees and the environmental audit select committee (EAC) report urges ministers to end their opposition, arguing there is now even more evidence of damage. Millions of member of the public have supported the ban.

“When it comes to research on pesticides, the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) is content to let the manufacturers fund the work,” said EAC chair Joan Walley. “This testifies to a loss of environmental protection capacity in the department responsible for it. If the research is to command public confidence, independent controls need to be maintained at every step. Unlike other research funded by pesticide companies, these studies also need to be peer-reviewed and published in full”. The EAC report found: “New studies have added weight to those that indicated a harmful link between pesticide use and pollinator populations.” Walley said: ”Defra should make clear that it now accepts the ban and will not seek to overturn it when the European commission conducts a review next year.” She added that ministers should make it clear that attempts to gain “emergency” exemptions, as pesticide-maker Syngenta did recently, will be turned down.

Read more …

No more hobbits.

New Zealand Dramatic Ice Loss Causes Severe Decline Of Glaciers (Guardian)

New Zealand’s vast Southern Alps mountain range has lost a third of its permanent snow and ice over the past four decades, diminishing some of the country’s most spectacular glaciers, new research has found. A study of aerial surveys conducted by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) discovered that the Southern Alps’ ice volume has shrunk by 34% since 1977. Researchers from the University of Auckland and University of Otago said this “dramatic” decrease has accelerated in the past 15 years and could lead to the severe decline of some of New Zealand’s mightiest glaciers. Glaciers, made up of ice that collects above the permanent snowline, have their size and shape altered by various conditions, such as temperature, wind and rainfall.

The Niwa data shows that New Zealand’s glaciers experienced three growth spurts during the 1970s and 1980s due to a change in the Pacific climate system that generated more wind. But since that wind circulation has returned to its previous state, rising global temperatures have caused the glaciers to retreat dramatically. About 40% of the recorded ice loss has been in the dozen largest New Zealand glaciers, including the Tasman, Murchison and Maud glaciers. These huge slabs of ice and snow, supported by rock, take many years to respond to changing temperatures but are now collapsing, according to researchers. “We are losing the bottom half of these large glaciers as they sink into lakes,” Trevor Chinn, a glaciologist at Niwa, told Guardian Australia. “We are also losing access to the upper glaciers. We used to be able to walk up them but it’s much harder now because the ridges are turning into gravel cliffs and they collapse.

Read more …

“With global carbon emissions already too high because of fossil-fuel use, he says, “why do we have to look for more?”

For New Zealand Town, Oil Brings Debate Over Economy, Environment (WSJ)

A government push to lure oil companies to New Zealand offers the promise of diversifying the country’s economy, long dependent on wool and, more recently, Hobbit-inspired tourism. But in the university town of Dunedin, the oil push has also locked residents in a debate over how to balance economic gains with environmental consequences. Local business leaders welcome the boats that have been prospecting offshore over the past few years. “It would be a real boon to have an industry that would be able to employ a lot of people,” says Peter Brown, the head of Dunedin’s port. Business from exploration vessels is “massive for us,” says Nicky Gibbs, who runs a business supplying boats from a quay-side warehouse here. “Our income will at least double in any month that you have them here.”

But ecotourism entrepreneurs and environmental activists say looking for oil undermines New Zealand’s work to conserve land and reduce carbon emissions, especially because the country itself has scant demand for new oil and gas sources. “You’d have to have rocks in your head” to believe petroleum prospecting is good for Dunedin ecotourism, says Lisa King. For three generations, her family has brought tourists to see endangered yellow-eyed penguins that nest on their 1,500-sheep farm. Driving a 1980s-vintage bus atop a bluff where penguins nest in the scrub below, Ms. King’s brother Brian McGrouther says watching helicopters fly to exploration ships “right out there on the horizon” this year unsettled him. An oil spill off the coast could hurt the birds or the already-waning fish populations they depend on for food. “Our community has concerns around risk,” says Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull. With global carbon emissions already too high because of fossil-fuel use, he says, “why do we have to look for more?”

Read more …

May 162014
 
 May 16, 2014  Posted by at 2:33 pm Finance Tagged with: , , ,  7 Responses »


Harris & Ewing Sandwich vendor, Washington DC 1919

In essence, it’s really simple. We’ve seen over the last few days that the European Union is a federation of sovereign countries whose leadership has been found painfully – if not criminally – lacking in democratic principles, and several leaders of member states have been accomplices, on more than one occasion, in assaults on elected fellow leaders. That should say enough, and there is no doubt that down the line it will. It’s now a question of how do we get here from there, of how will Brussels be dismantled.

First, there was a passage from Tim Geithner’s new book. Then, there was a 3-part series ‘How The Euro Was Saved’ by Peter Spiegel for the Financial Times. Together, they deliver the following storyline: EU leaders refused to let Greece have a referendum on its bail-out, and toppled PM Papandreou to kill it. Then, afraid that Italian PM Berlusconi would make good on his threat to return to the lira if they stuck to their bail-out conditions, they toppled him. What this means to Europeans is that if they elect a government for their country, and it subsequently falls out of favor with Brussels, they can expect to see it overthrown, and likely have it replaced by a technocrat handpicked by the EU leadership (as happened in Greece and Italy). Ergo: Europe is not a democracy, and pretending otherwise is foolish. Democratic elections in member states are merely empty lip service exercises, because on important topics governments of member states have no say.

The EU leaders have been Brussels stalwarts for ages, and they’ll do anything they can to preserve their jobs and their status. Anything, in this case, includes overthrowing elected governments. The excuse for such behavior is that the EU and the euro MUST survive. The problem with that is that both only CAN survive if and when democratic rules are obeyed by all parties involved. Apparently, they are not. And that means it’s time to close the doors, and perhaps take legal action against those responsible for the coups in Athens and Rome. Don’t hold your breath for that to happen. And don’t think it won’t cause a bitter fight. The stalwarts are delusional and megalomaniacal enough to think that the end justifies the means, and that to hold together their idea of what Europe should be, which happens to be tied to their own cushy jobs and political power, they were right to execute the two coup d’états (three if you count Ukraine, but that’s another story).

The main candidates to be appointed head of the European Commission, a decision linked to next week’s European Parliament elections are Jean-Claude Juncker (center-right), a former Luxembourg PM, Martin Schulz (left), current chairman of the parliament, and Guy Verhofstadt (center), former Belgium PM. That’s basically all the flavors there are, and they all taste suspiciously equal. As I wrote yesterday, anyone who’s not happy with the direction Europe is taking – of more Europe, more Brussels all the time – has nowhere to go but fringe parties, mostly on the far right. Beppe Grillo’s Italian M5S movement is the only exception to that rule that I know of. Grillo wants an Italian referendum on EU and eurozone membership. Well, “they” don’t like referendums, as we know.

In a first debate late April between the 3 main candidates – they did throw in an obsolete Green “leader” for good measure -, when they were asked about the rise of Eurosceptic and extremist parties across Europe, Schulz said: “The tendency is European citizens not taking these elections seriously. If they don’t take this seriously we’re going to get more of these people in the parliament. For me as a German it is unacceptable that a nazi party would sit in the next parliament”. He then referenced ‘the ghost of Adolf Hitler’. If you follow the line of thinking here, it suggests that anyone skeptical of what happens in Brussels is automatically painted in a shade of fascism.

The three candidates represent the full spectrum of European politics: right, center, left. Those are your choices, the rest are suspect, if not outright nazi’s. Everyone you can vote for who can make an actual difference, or an actual decision for that matter, is pro-Brussels. And if you are not, you will have to vote for some fringe party, or stay home. But if you vote fringe, you’re labeled bordering-on-fascist. It’s eerily similar to Washington, where two parties, not even three, hold all the power and will continue to do so because they receive all the money.

It no longer matters, or means anything, that EU leaders or pro-EU leaders of member states will continue to claim that what goes on in Brussels is a democratic process, as they point to the elections. We now know those elections are but a curtain behind which anyone who doesn’t agree with the party line can count on being sacrificed for the greater good.

This is not to say that the original idea behind the EU was all that bad, or that not one single decision made in Brussels has been beneficial, but things went wrong along the way, the leadership overstepped their mandate in ways that can’t tolerate daylight. Replacing them, which will be hard enough to begin with as they’ve become so entrenched in their revolving door positions, wouldn’t do much good either: there’s a climate that has allowed for their actions, in what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard calls a ‘monetary dictatorship’, that will still be there. Brussels has turned into Rome in its last days -and so has Washington-. Megalomania and moral corruption lead to moral bankruptcy which leads to overall bankruptcy. It took a long time, and a lot of blood, to dissolve Rome. It would be in every European’s interest if it didn’t take that long to sweep the streets of Brussels clean. But it won’t be achieved through elections. For that, you’d need a democracy.

Oh, and large parts of Europe have hardly any fossil fuels left – except for coal in some cases, but there seems to be a problem with that 😉 -. One year of oil and gas left for Italy and France, five for Britain. It’s just like the Romans running out of resources. Brussels might want to give that some thought while they’re busy scheming for power. Or are they already planning to topple Putin next? We should almost hope so. They’d be run out of Dodge impaled on baguettes and wieners. The EU is a nice idea that’s run completely out of hand and out of control, even more than the US, and that’s saying something.

The first member state to leave the eurozone wins. Guaranteed. And one WILL be the first, that’s guaranteed too. Be your own boss, things will be hard enough going forward no matter what you do. Why would anyone want the incessant threat of a coup in their country hanging over their heads, every time they choose leaders who don’t toe Europe’s ‘official’ line? Why bother? Brussels makes you richer, you say? Even if that were true, which is highly doubtful, look at the price you’re paying to feel richer.

UK’s Oil, Coal And Gas ‘Gone In Five Years’ (BBC)

In just over five years Britain will have run out of oil, coal and gas, researchers have warned. A report by the Global Sustainability Institute said shortages would increase dependency on Norway, Qatar and Russia. There should be a “Europe-wide drive” towards wind, tidal, solar and other sources of renewable power, the institute’s Prof Victor Anderson said. The government says complete energy independence is unnecessary, says BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin. The report says Russia has more than 50 years of oil, more than 100 years of gas and more than 500 years of coal left, on current consumption. By contrast, Britain has just 5.2 years of oil, 4.5 years of coal and three years of its own gas remaining.

France fares even worse, according to the report, with less than year to go before it runs out of all three fossil fuels. Dr Aled Jones, director of the institute, which is based at Anglia Ruskin University, said “heavily indebted” countries were becoming increasingly vulnerable to rising energy prices. “The EU is becoming ever more reliant on our resource-rich neighbours such as Russia and Norway, and this trend will only continue unless decisive action is taken,” he added. The report painted a varied picture across Europe, with Bulgaria having 34 years of coal left. Germany, it was claimed, has 250 years of coal remaining but less than a year of oil. Professor Anderson said: “Coal, oil and gas resources in Europe are running down and we need alternatives. “The UK urgently needs to be part of a Europe-wide drive to expand renewable energy sources such as wave, wind, tidal, and solar power.”

Read more …

France, Italy Have ‘Less Than One Year’ Of Fossil Fuels Left (ITV)

France will run out of its natural gas, oil and coal supplies within the next year, according to experts. The Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University also found:

• Italy has less than a year of gas and coal, and only one year of oil.
• Some Eastern European members fare much better, with 73 years left of coal in Bulgaria and 34 years of coal in Poland.
• Germany has over 250 years left of coal but less than a year of oil and only two years of gas.
• Russia has over 50 years of oil, over 100 years of gas and over 500 years of coal, based on their current levels of internal consumption.

Read more …

EU Officials Plotted IMF Attack To Bring Rebellious Italy To Its Knees (AEP)

The revelations about EMU skulduggery are coming thick and fast. Tim Geithner recounts in his book Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises just how far the EU elites are willing to go to save the euro, even if it means toppling elected leaders and eviscerating Europe’s sovereign parliaments. The former US Treasury Secretary says that EU officials approached him in the white heat of the EMU crisis in November 2011 with a plan to overthrow Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s elected leader. “They wanted us to refuse to back IMF loans to Italy as long as he refused to go,” he writes. Geithner told them this was unthinkable. The US could not misuse the machinery of the IMF to settle political disputes in this way. “We can’t have his blood on our hands”.

This concurs with what we knew at the time about the backroom manoeuvres, and the action in the bond markets. It is a constitutional scandal of the first order. These officials decided for themselves that the sanctity of monetary union entitled them to overrule the parliamentary process, that means justify the end. It is the definition of a monetary dictatorship. Mr Berlusconi has demanded a parliamentary inquiry. “It’s a clear violation of democratic rules and an assault on the sovereignty of our country. The plot is an extremely serious news which confirms what I’ve been saying for a long time,” he said.

There has been a drip-drip of revelations. Italy’s former member on the ECB’s executive board, Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, suggested in his book last summer that the decision to topple Berlusconi (and replace him with ex-EU commissioner Mario Monti) was taken after he started threatening a return to the Lira in meetings with EU leaders. I have always found the incident bizarre. Italy had previously been held up an example of virtue, one of the very few EMU states then near primary budget surplus. It was not in serious breach of deficit rules. It was in crisis in the Autumn of 2011 because the ECB had raised rates twice and triggered what was to become a deep double-dip recession. Yet the blame for this disastrous policy error was displaced on to Italy’s government.

Fresh details emerged this week in a terrific account of the crisis by Peter Spiegel in the Financial Times. The report recounts the hour-by-hour drama at the G20 Summit in Cannes as the euro came close to blowing up. It culminates in the incredible scene when President Barack Obama takes over the meeting and tells the Europeans what to do, causing Chancellor Angela Merkel to break down in tears: “Ich bringe mich nicht selbst um.” I won’t commit suicide. That particular spasm of the crisis – and there have been three episodes (May 2010, Nov 2011, and July 2012) when the eurozone would have splintered without drastic action – was set off by the shock decision of Greek premier Georges Papandreou to call a referendum on the austerity terms of his country’s bail-out. He thought a vote was needed to stop Greece spinning out of control, and to pre-empt a possible military coup (as he saw it). [..]

Parliamentary formalities were upheld in both Italy and Greece. The presidents appointed the new leaders in each of the two countries. Both Monti and Papademos are honourable and dedicated public servants. Yet these were clearly coups d’etat in spirit, if not in constitutional law.

Read more …

ECB Urged to Buy Bailout Bonds; Rate Cut Won’t Aid Growth (Bloomberg)

Mario Draghi could end the search for an asset worth buying if he’d only turn to the euro area’s jointly issued crisis bonds. That’s the analysis of Guntram Wolff, director of the Bruegel institute in Brussels, who is a frequent contributor to closed-door meetings of euro-area finance ministers. He proposes that the European Central Bank president tap a 490-billion-euro ($669 billion) pool of debt issued by agencies that include the region’s two bailout funds. ECB officials faced with a stumbling economy and inflation stuck at less than half their goal have floated the idea of adding stimulus via asset purchases, akin to quantitative easing, only to be confronted with a shortage of suitable instruments.

The complexity presented by 18 government debt markets means Draghi is instead priming investors for more limited action such as interest-rate cuts for now. Debt issued by the bailout funds represents “the only ‘European sovereign bonds,’ if you wish; they’d be European assets which have European quality, and therefore would be of low risk,” Wolff said in an interview in Berlin yesterday. “My feeling is that the ECB is still very shy. The easy thing will be to lower the deposit rate. We all know the effect of this is not very big.” [..] Any measure is unlikely to resemble the QE programs deployed by the U.S. and U.K., where central banks have bought swathes of domestic public debt to boost prices, according to Wolff.

The ECB would have to deal with the politics and practicalities of intervening in so many different markets. “There’s no way you can avoid that,” Wolff said. “It’s always a political debate, and that’s why my sense is that they’ll probably shy away from government bonds because government bonds are even more political than others. Debt traded on secondary markets issued by the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechanism, which since 2010 have lent cash to crisis states such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal, provide a simpler alternative, he said. The bonds are backed by guarantees from the euro-area governments.

Read more …

How The Euro Was Saved part 2: Inside Europe’s Plan Z (FT)

It was yet another near-catastrophe in Greece – which by mid-2012 had experienced street riots, soaring unemployment and austerity that had produced four years of Great Depression-style economic contraction – that would spark European leaders to act decisively. Since 2009, Greece’s economy had shrunk by 20%. At no time in the crisis was Europe’s single currency more at risk of blowing apart than the weeks either side of the Greek parliamentary election in June. Grexit planning took on new urgency when it appeared that the leftist Syriza party – led by anti-bailout insurgent Alexis Tsipras – was on the verge of winning. “That was the time when we really said: We’ve got to finalise our work,” said another person involved in Plan Z.

With most of the world’s economic leadership flying to Los Cabos, Mexico, for the annual Group of 20 summit the same weekend as the Greek vote, a small group of top EU officials stayed at their desks in case Plan Z had to be activated. They were led by Olli Rehn, EU economic commissioner, who cancelled his flight to Mexico to stay in Brussels. Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank chief, remained in Frankfurt and Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who headed the eurogroup of finance ministers, was also on call.

Plan Z was never used. Mr Tsipras’s Syriza party finished second, allowing Greece’s mainstream parties to form an uneasy coalition that eventually agreed to stay the bailout course. But senior officials said the near-miss that summer, and the ensuing debate about Greek membership, helped focus minds in capitals across the eurozone – particularly Berlin, where fights over the advisability of Grexit raged for three more months, before Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, finally put an end to them.

Read more …

How The Euro Was Saved part 3: ‘If The Euro Falls, Europe Falls’ (FT)

Since the start of the crisis, ECB firefighting power had been politically constrained by Germany. Mr Monti’s idea of the ECB buying bonds of struggling countries had long been seen as the solution to the crisis among policy makers from Washington to Paris. If the ECB made such a commitment, especially if it were unlimited, no bond trader would dare challenge its bottomless pockets. Panicked sell-offs could end overnight, advocates argued. But many in Berlin saw such ECB action as improper. Buying eurozone bonds was, in essence, lending those governments money printed by the central bank, a practice known as “monetary financing”. That not only put off the day of reckoning for ministers tasked with balancing budgets, it could also spur inflation.

Mr Trichet had twice pulled the euro back from the brink – when he agreed to purchase Greek bonds at the outset of the crisis in May 2010 and when he expanded the bond-buying programme to Italy and Spain in the turbulent summer of 2011. But his plans were always described as limited. “It was a way for governments to buy time,” said Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, an ECB executive board member under Mr Trichet. “It was not something to save the euro.” When Mr Draghi took the ECB helm in November 2011, the bank resembled a foreign outpost in enemy territory. The German public, never enthusiastic about bailouts, were outright hostile towards Mr Trichet’s bond-buying.

His efforts, formally known as the security markets programme or SMP, had been challenged in the German constitutional court and survived. But they also led to the resignation of Axel Weber, the Bundesbank chief. Mr Trichet’s decision in August 2011 to expand SMP to Spain and Italy also led to the loss of a second German who, until then, had kept his objections private: Jürgen Stark. The lone German on the ECB executive board, Mr Stark had been uncomfortable with Mr Trichet’s approach but had refrained from public objections. “I was loyal maybe for too long to the ECB,” Mr Stark said. The day after the ECB board approved Italian and Spanish bond-buying, Mr Stark resigned. There was little doubt in Berlin who would be next in line: Jörg Asmussen, the shaven-headed economist who had been the finance ministry’s point man since the crisis began.

Read more …

‘I Have A ‘Sick Feeling’ A 25% Crash Is Ahead’ (CNBC)

Ralph Acampora, who is often known as the godfather of technical analysis, tends to be bullish on stocks. But on Thursday, as the major averages all dropped more than 1%, he expressed a massively bearish view on U.S. equities. On “Futures Now,” Acampora predicted that the S&P 500 would drop “10, maybe 15% between now and maybe October,” but said it would be much worse for small caps, mid-caps and tech stocks. “If you ask me about the Russell and the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P MidCap, I think you’re talking about 20, 25%. And I call it a stealth bear market going on.” The charting guru, who is director of technical research at Altaira, says he’s reminded of the way markets were behaving 20 years ago. “The last time I saw anything like this was in 1994, when the Dow and the S&P were in a 10% trading range all year, and then under the surface they were just ripping them apart. I have a sick feeling that we might be doing that again,” he said.

Read more …

Tick, Tick, Tick.

China Bad Loans Rise Most Since 2005 as Economy Slows (Bloomberg)

Chinese banks had the biggest quarterly increase in bad loans since 2005 as a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy causes defaults to rise. Nonperforming loans rose by 54 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) in the three months through March to 646.1 billion yuan, the highest level since September 2008, according to data released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission yesterday. Bad loans accounted for 1.04% of total lending, up from 1% three months earlier. The 10th straight quarterly increase in defaults adds to concern banks’ profitability may slip as they build buffers to cover loan losses.

Policy makers have also been cracking down on financing to weaker borrowers to rein in total debt that has climbed to more than double the nation’s gross domestic product. “Asset quality is now the biggest overhang on the banking sector,” Rainy Yuan, a Shanghai-based analyst at Masterlink Securities Corp., said by phone. “The government’s reluctance to use stimulus and ease monetary policy has made it difficult for many borrowers to repay debt.” Concern that profitability will decline further dragged the Hong Kong shares of China’s five biggest banks down by an average 7.3% this year to yesterday, compared with the benchmark Hang Seng Index’s 2.5% drop. The lenders traded at an average 4.8 times estimated 2014 profit, close to the lowest valuations on record.

Read more …

I smell an implosion.

Mediterranean Stocks Plummet As GDP Disappoints (CNBC)

Spanish, Italian, Greek and Portuguese stocks tumbled on Thursday, after euro zone growth data disappointed and uncertainty lingered about the prospect of the European Central Bank announcing monetary stimulus soon. Preliminary data for Greece showed that economic activity contracted in the first three months of the year, down 1.1% on the same quarter a year before. The Cypriot economy contracted by a massive 4.1% over the period, while the Italian economy shrunk 0.5%. Economic activity across the region disappointed with the exception of Germany, which saw expansion double. The 18-country bloc saw economic growth of 0.2% in the first quarter, compared with fourth quarter 2013. This missed analyst expectations of 0.4% growth. In the fourth quarter last year GDP also grew by 0.2%, data from Eurostat showed.

After the data was released, the Greek benchmark stock index closed down around 4.6%. Portuguese and Italian stocks closed unofficially down 2.8% and 3.7% respectively. “It is not surprising, and disappointing GDP will continue for the next two years if we do not facilitate the life of the business community,” Secretary-General of Eurochambres Arnaldo Abruzzini told CNBC. “It is true that certain members states are seeing a rebound on a GDP basis, but this is minimal. Many businesses – particularly those that have been hit hard by the crisis – are still struggling. In Italy, Greece, Spain, the rate of businesses that close down still outweighs those that are being created,” he said.

Read more …

What do you mean, that’s not funny?

Portugal Laden With $293 Billion Debt Exits Bailout Plan (Bloomberg)

Portugal exits its international bailout program tomorrow, regaining the economic sovereignty the nation lost after the European debt crisis erupted while facing enduring challenges to its finances. The Iberian country’s 214 billion euros ($293 billion) of debt is the third highest in the euro region as a percentage of gross domestic product. The economy is about 4% smaller than in 2010, a year before the government had to ask for an international rescue. Borrowing costs based on 10-year bond yields are almost twice those of France and all three major ratings companies consider the country non-investment grade.

“There will now be two or three decades of lean times for the state, which will have to purge that debt burden,” said Diogo Teixeira, chief executive officer of Optimize Investment Partners, a Lisbon-based firm that manages 87 million euros in assets including Portuguese government debt. “The debt burden is sustainable, but it’s heavy.” Portugal decided to mimic Ireland in exiting the bailout without the safety of a precautionary credit line after last month auctioning bonds for the first time since requesting the 78 billion-euro rescue package. While the country has emerged from its longest recession in at least 25 years, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho’s government must trim spending this year and next to meet deficit targets.

Read more …

Protectionism! They might as well leave the EU.

France Issues Law To Block Foreign Takeovers Of Strategic Firms (Reuters)

The French government has issued a decree allowing it to block any foreign takeovers of French companies in”strategic” industries, throwing up a potential roadblock to General Electric’s planned $16.9 billion bid for Alstom’s energy assets. The decree published in the official state gazette onThursday, and seen by Reuters, will give the state much-increased powers to block foreign takeovers in the energy, water, transport, telecoms and health sectors. Any such acquisition will now need the approval of the Economy Minister, the decree published in France’s Official Journal said.

The government had not previously given any hint it was considering such a measure, although Economy and Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg has openly criticized the Alstom-GE proposal and instead advocated a European tie-up with Germany’s Siemens. The French engineering group has given itself until the end of the month to review its options. “With this decree, we’re armed to continue discussions and negotiations with the two companies that have expressed an interest,” a source close to Montebourg said. Cash-strapped Alstom, which builds France’s high-speed trains, was bailed out by the French government a decade ago and is seen by many in France as an embodiment of the country’s engineering prowess. “This decree will smooth the way for talks with GE and Siemens and allow our demands to get more of a hearing,” the source said. The veto will not necessarily be used, the source added, but is aimed at giving France a seat at the table.

Read more …

Whatever.

Carlyle to TPG Grab Discarded Company Assets as LBOs Slump 90% (Bloomberg)

If you can’t buy whole companies then buy bits and pieces of them. That’s the logic propelling private-equity firms this year as they gobble up divisions shed by their parent. These so-called carve-outs are giving private-equity firms something to buy and clean up, at a time when leveraged buyouts of entire companies have all but stopped, as U.S. stock indexes reach records. Through April, carve-out deals accounted for a quarter of all U.S. private-equity purchases this year, up from an average of 13% in the previous decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. LBOs — which can generate healthy returns with relatively less effort — are just 6% of all deals compared with an average of 50% over 10 years.

“In an environment where it’s difficult to pay a premium to buy publicly traded companies, divestitures are one of the most attractive deals for private equity,” said Chris Sullivan, head of the Americas financial sponsors group — which is charged with advising private-equity firms on deals — at Barclays Plc. These transactions jumped to $13.3 billion this year through April, from an average of $8.8 billion in the same period over the previous decade. That extends a trend from last year, when private-equity firms bought 180 corporate spinoffs, the most since 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Carlyle Group LP bought three business units, including Johnson & Johnson’s medical diagnostics business, accounting for almost all of its $9.8 billion total deal value so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Read more …

I thought they all wanted it this way?!

Britain’s Richest 1% Own As Much As Poorest 55% Of Population (Guardian)

Britain’s richest 1% have accumulated as much wealth as the poorest 55% of the population put together, according to the latest official analysis of who owns the nation’s £9.5tn of property, pensions and financial assets. In figures that also lay bare the extent of inequality across the north-south divide, the Office for National Statistics said household wealth in the south-east had been rising five times as fast as across the whole country. The average wealth of households in the southeast had surged to £309,000 at the end of 2012, up 30% since the first wealth report published by the ONS covering 2006-8 – while the average rise in England was only 6%. But wealth in the north-east had fallen, the only region where it did so, to an average of just under £143,000. In Scotland the figure was £165,500.

The data also shows that one in nine households have second homes or rental properties and one in 14 sport a personalised number plate on their car. Northern regions lost out after a dramatic rise in stock market values that was grabbed mostly by households in the south east, the ONS figures show. The situation is likely to have worsened following an 18% surge in house prices over the past year in the south-east and even higher at the top end of the market. A rush to save among richer households as the recession deepened boosted the nation’s total wealth and ensured Britain’s long-established financial inequality remained in place, with the top 10% laying claim to 44% of household wealth – while the poorest half of the country had only 9%.

Rachael Orr, Oxfam’s head of poverty in the UK said the figures were a “shocking chapter in a tale of two Britains”. The charity recently reported that five billionaire families controlled the same wealth as 20% of the population. “It is further evidence of increasing inequality at a time when five rich families have the same wealth as 12 million people,” she said. “We need our politicians to grasp the nettle and make the narrowing gap between the richest and poorest a top priority. It cannot be right that in Britain today a small elite are getting richer and richer while millions are struggling to make ends meet.”

Read more …

Huh? Bubble? Where?

Britain’s Buy-to-Let Landlords Borrow 70% More In A Year (Telegraph)

Loans to landlords are almost 70pc higher in value than a year ago, running at over £2bn per month. The growth in this form of lending outstrips the growth in most other mortgages, as the popularity of buy-to-let investment continues to gain hold. The Council of Mortgage Lenders’ March figures, published on Thursday, revealed a continuing recovery in lending across the whole housing market. First-time buyers continued to flock through lenders’ doors, with loans to that group 34pc higher than in March 2013. Loans to home-movers – those who are moving up the housing ladder – were 11pc higher.

The number of loans taken out as “remortgages”, where property owners stay put but switch their loan for a better rate, showed a modest 5pc year-on-year increase. But buy-to-let lending was the outlier in terms of growth. In March 16,200 loans were advanced, an increase in number on March 2013 of 56pc. The value of the loans, at £2.2bn, was up by 69pc on March 2013. By contrast first-time buyers took out 24,400 loans in the month, worth £3.4bn. Home-movers (ie, excluding those remortgaging), who borrowed to purchase another property in which to live, took out 50,500 loans worth £8bn. The figures showed that for every £5 lent to a home buyer or mover, £1 was lent to a property investor.

Read more …

And he never will. Drag him before the Senate, put him under oath!

Geithner Still Can’t Explain Lehman (Bloomberg)

One of the most puzzling aspects of the financial crisis was the zig-zag-zig by the U.S. authorities, who saved Bear Stearns from bankruptcy, then let Lehman Brothers fall off the cliff only to rescue AIG a day later. After plowing through the first half of Tim Geithner’s book “Stress Test,” I’m none the wiser. Geithner, who was at the helm of the New York Federal Reserve during the meltdown and then became President Barack Obama’s Treasury secretary in its aftermath, has no time for “moral hazard fundamentalists” who object to bailouts for banks. “The truly moral thing to do during a raging financial inferno is to put it out,” he argues. So why didn’t he throw buckets of dollars on Lehman when it was blazing away?

After saying his book isn’t meant to cast him as the Cassandra of the financial crisis, Geithner tries to convince us that he was ahead of the curve from the moment he arrived at the Fed. “Even though the financial sector seemed healthy, I talked about the systemic risks in almost every speech I delivered as New York Fed President.” That talk failed to translate into action. In 2005, Geithner advisers Lee Sachs and Stanley Druckenmiller started bringing him graphs showing the U.S. credit boom, which the trio dubbed “Mount Fuji” charts. The alarms that should have sounded didn’t go off. In August 2006, he played truant from a conference to go fly fishing and his guide, a mortgage broker, told him “horror stories of sketchy loans to homeowners with sketchy credit.” Still the bells stayed silent.

A year later Countrywide, the largest mortgage lender in the U.S. with $500 billion of housing loans in 2006, got into trouble. In mid-August 2007, Bank of New York Mellon threatened to pull Countrywide’s funding unless the Fed indemnified it against potential losses. Geithner refused; instead, he strong-armed the bank into holding fire in exchange for Countrywide upgrading its collateral. Then the funding that kept Bear Stearns afloat disappeared almost overnight: “This felt much darker than the Countrywide scare, because Bear seemed more systemic, and the broader financial world was in a much more fragile place,” Geithner writes.

Read more …

Nassim Taleb vs Larry Summers On Too-Big-To-Fail (MarketWatch)

A riveting debate between “Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb and former Treasury secretary and White House adviser Larry Summers captivated the SALT hedge-fund conference in Las Vegas Thursday. Taleb, who recently authored a paper entitled “Skin in the Game,” argued that the aftermath of the financial crisis unfairly rewarded bad actors and that the system remains dangerous. Summers, who served as Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton and more recently as an adviser to Barack Obama, took exception and charged that Taleb was being unrealistic about the difficulties identifying the institutions that pose systemic risk. Summers told Taleb that he was for more capital, more liquidity, living wills for banks and procedures to wind them down. “What are you for?” he challenged.

“I’m for punishment,” Taleb replied. Taleb outlined a system in which everyone would know which systemically important banks would be bailed out, but would presumably see strict oversight of bonuses and operations afterward. Other institutions would be left to fail, he said. Summers countered that such a system was in place prior to the financial crisis. But when push came to shove, Bear Stearns, an investment bank that wasn’t envisioned as systemically important, was rescued. And then we all know what happened when Lehman Brothers failed. Summers said that building a system is sort of like saying you’ll never pay ransom to kidnappers. It sounds good in practice, but in reality sometimes even the Israelis pay ransom, he said. Taleb had the final word, saying the system should be designed so that you can’t get upside without being exposed to the downside.

Read more …

US politics at its finest.

Fannie, Freddie and Renewed Gutting Of Mortgage Standards (Alhambra)

The latest noises out of both Fannie and Freddie are for increasing intrusion into housing, which is a sharp departure from where this was all heading (and where it should). The previous GSE administration (Ed DeMarco left in January, replaced by Mel Watts) had left the impression of winding down the troubled firms that have been in conservatorship since the week before Lehman failed. Now Watts has made the statement that Fannie and Freddie are actively seeking a new entrance (really a return) to GSE favored status. As part of winding down these government hybrids (in name), the plan was to reduce the ceiling on individual mortgage loans, thereby requiring more and more private participation in mortgages. Under Watts, that has apparently been scrapped.

Instead, it looks like Fannie and Freddie are seeking to reduce the credit standards for loan put-backs – legal instruments put in place after the collapse where it was “noticed” that banks “sold” all manner of junk loans to the GSE’s. The put-back clauses basically require any loan that begins toward NPL is mandatorily repurchased by the originator, indemnifying the GSE’s (and thus taxpayers) from more imprudent losses (really the breakdown of actual intermediation). That has led, rightfully, to a dramatic tightening of lending standards since banks do not want put-back risk after sale.

The theory that Watts seems to be courting, and which Santelli is rightfully upset about, is that reducing put-back standards amounts to the same type of behavior as we saw during the big housing bubble. In reality, it is an attempt to inject more leverage into housing. I don’t think the timing is coincidental here, particularly as even FOMC members and Janet Yellen herself have gone soft on housing interpretations lately. It has become pretty clear that the mini-bubble of Bernanke’s QE3 is being burst with his taper gift to the new regime. What better way to try to mitigate the damage (decimation) in mortgages than stirring up GSE favoritism.

Read more …

But of course.

Subprime 2.0: US 125% LTV Loans Are Coming Back (Zero Hedge)

Yesterday we mocked China for being desperate enough to push its tumbling housing market (which directly and indirectly accounts for some 80% of Chinese GDP per SocGen estimates) no matter the cost, that at least 20 developers were offering the kinds of mortgages that resulted in the first credit bubble crack up boom and collapse, namely “Zero money down.” Little did we know that the US, never one to lag in the financial innovation department had once again one-upped China, by bringing back from the dead the company that according to Housing Wire was “once a poster child for pre-crash subprime lending” – Ditech Mortgage Corp. Don’t remember ditech? Then you certainly were not in the housing market during the peak bubble years last time around: ditech, which hasn’t been in the news in nearly five years, will also be developing co-branded and joint-ventures with financial institutions that want to offer mortgages.

Supposedly, ditech is one of the better-known brands thanks to its heavy consumer advertising in the first half of the 2000s – remember the “Lost another loan to ditech!” ads? But best of all, ditech was known as a leader in subprime. The bulk of the mortgages were interest-only, low-documentation subprimes, and ditech was a pioneer in offering 125% loans allowing the borrower to borrow more than the sale price. So just how does Ditech plan on making its grand (re)entrance? With a bang, of course: “Ditech Mortgage Corp. is launching a new three-pronged approach to staking out territory with direct consumer lending, retail lending and correspondent lending with their 600-plus institutional partners. (In all nonformal references, the company goes with a lower-case spelling.)

Read more …

How is it not a religion if all the Lord created can be expressed in dollar terms?

Climate Change To Hit Credit Ratings (CNBC)

Climate change will be a significant factor in sovereign credit ratings and is already putting them under downward pressure, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (S&P) warned on Thursday. In a new report, S&P argued that climate change – and particularly global warming – will hit countries’ economic growth rates, their external performance and public finances. “Climate change is likely to be one of the global mega-trends impacting sovereign creditworthiness, in most cases negatively,” it said in the report. Recent bouts of extreme weather – from Typhoon Haiyan in the Phillipines to heavy flooding across the United Kingdom — have drawn attention to the financial and economic effects of climate change.

They have also highlighted the growing cost of natural disasters. According to reinsurer Munich Re, overall losses in East Asia, for instance, used to be below $10 billion per year, but over the past decade have regularly topped $20 billion – and peaked at over $50 billion. But despite this surge in extreme weather events, S&P has not, to date, revised the rating of a sovereign as a result. “However, assuming that extreme weather events are on the rise in terms of frequency and destruction, how this trend could feed through to our ratings on sovereign states bears consideration,” it said in the report.

According to S&P, poorer and lower-rated countries will be the hardest hit by climate change. All of the 20 nations ranked most-vulnerable by S&P are emerging markets, with the vast majority in Africa or Asia. “This is in part due to their reliance on agricultural production and employment, which can be vulnerable to shifting climate patterns and extreme weather events, but also due to their weaker capacity to absorb the financial cost,” S&P said. It added that this could contribute to rising global rating inequality.

Read more …

I’m game.

GMO Producers Should Be Punished As Terrorists, Russian MPs Say (RT)

A draft law submitted to the Russian parliament seeks to impose punishment up to criminal prosecution to producers of genetically-modified organisms harmful to health or the environment. The draft legislation submitted on Wednesday amends Russia’s law regulating GMOs and some other laws and provides for disciplinary action against individuals and firms, which produce or distribute harmful biotech products and government officials who fail to properly control them. At worst, a criminal case may be launched against a company involved in introducing unsafe GMOs into Russia. Sponsors of the bill say that the punishment for such deeds should be comparable to the punishment allotted to terrorists, if the perpetrators act knowingly and hurt many people.

“When a terrorist act is committed, only several people are usually hurt. But GMOs may hurt dozens and hundreds. The consequences are much worse. And punishment should be proportionate to the crime,” co-author Kirill Cherkasov, member of the State Duma Agriculture Committee told RT. Russian criminal code allows for a punishment starting with 15 years in jail and up to a life sentence for terrorism. Less severe misdeeds related to GMOs would be punishable by fines. For instance the administrative code would provide for up to 20,000 rubles (US$560) in fines for failure to report an incident of environmental pollution, which would also cover harmful GMO contamination, if sponsors of the bill have their way.

Russia gave the green light to import of GMOs and planting of bioengineered seeds as part of its accession to the WTO, but the Russian government remains skeptical of GMOs. In April, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced that his cabinet will postpone the beginning of certification of GMO plants for growth in Russia due to lack of proper infrastructure needed to test their safety. The government also opposes imports of GMO food, saying the country has enough farmlands to provide enough regular food to feed itself.

Read more …