Doc Robinson
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“Contra Costa… virtually all those now being infected have not gotten their shots.”
To me, “virtually all,” as used here, is an exaggeration which can be misleading if the numbers aren’t actually revealed and understood. In addition to the questions raised earlier (by upstateNYer) about testing and “cases,” I have some comments.
“As of Friday, the daily average of new cases in Contra Costa County over the previous week among those who have been fully vaccinated was 0.6 per 100,000 residents. But it was 6 per 100,000 among those who are not inoculated — 10 times higher.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-tale-of-two-counties-this-bay-area-county-sorts-into-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated/ar-AALtpGyAssuming that their 7-day sample is sufficient data… the 10-times higher infection rate for the unvaccinated is about what would be expected with a 90% effective vaccine. Doesn’t seem as big a deal as it’s made out to be. But I wonder how low this 10-times factor has dropped in other weeks (which could be evidence that the vaccines aren’t actually working as advertised)? Sometimes what’s left out speaks louder than what’s included.
The absolute risk reduction (by what percentage does the vaccine reduce my chances of becoming infected) is very low (about 1% on average, and much less for younger people), and this seems more relevant to the “vaccine hesitant” than the relative risk reduction (especially when considering the actual likelihood of Covid infection), along with concerns about adverse reactions and potentially harmful long-term effects of the vaccines.
Going beyond the number of infections (which are mostly mild cases anyway), the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 in Contra Costa County has been only 1 per week since the beginning of June. (The published data doesn’t disclose how many of the fatalities were vaccinated.) One death per week out of more than a million people.
And the Covid deaths in that county have been mostly among older people. Since the pandemic started, there have been only 2 deaths from Covid for people age 30 and under, in that county. Meanwhile, “Suicide is the third leading cause of death every year among Contra Costa County residents ages 15 – 34.” That’s during a normal year without lockdowns.
An ABC News story from Contra Costa County last year:
Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek [in Contra Costa County] say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus.
The head of the trauma in the department believes mental health is suffering so much, it is time to end the shelter-in-place order… The numbers are unprecedented, he said.
“We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” he said. “I mean we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.“
https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/
Links with data related to my previous comment:
Raúl: “Why is the R rate highest in the most vaccinated countries?”
Going a little deeper, the top 3 “most vaccinated” countries (looking at the percentage of the population that’s fully vaccinated against Covid) are Israel (60%), Bahrain (57%), and Chile (54%). (Our World in Data)
Israel’s vaccines have been 100% Pfizer.
Bahrain’s vaccines have been mostly Sinopharm (more than 60%).
Chile’s vaccines have been mostly Sinovac (around 80%).This month (June 2021), the R rate for Bahrain and Chile have been trending downward, with both countries now having an R of less than 1, while Israel’s R rate has been trending upward and is currently greater than 2.
Related data links will appear in my next comment.
@ John Day
That linked page (missing) was primarily about a video which can still be viewed via Cummins’ twitter page:
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1409156353986269186“Fortunately there are enough un-vaccinated people that the Marek’s Disease sort of disaster will not happen so long as enough people refuse..” (Denninger)
I had to look up Marek’s Disease since Denninger didn’t provide further information. The related problem with the vaccines for Covid-19 is that they are “leaky.” ”
“It’s important to note childhood vaccines for polio, measles, mumps, rubella and smallpox aren’t leaky”
The deadliest strains of viruses often take care of themselves — they flare up and then die out. This is because they are so good at destroying cells and causing illness that they ultimately kill their host before they have time to spread.
But a chicken virus that represents one of the deadliest germs in history breaks from this conventional wisdom, thanks to an inadvertent effect from a vaccine. Chickens vaccinated against Marek’s disease rarely get sick. But the vaccine does not prevent them from spreading Marek’s to unvaccinated birds…
In fact, rather than stop fowl from spreading the virus, the vaccine allows the disease to spread faster and longer than it normally would, a new study finds. The scientists now believe that this vaccine has helped this chicken virus become uniquely virulent.
The reason this is a problem for Marek’s disease is because the vaccine is “leaky.” A leaky vaccine is one that keeps a microbe from doing serious harm to its host, but doesn’t stop the disease from replicating and spreading to another individual. On the other hand, a “perfect” vaccine is one that sets up lifelong immunity that never wanes and blocks both infection and transmission.
It’s important to note childhood vaccines for polio, measles, mumps, rubella and smallpox aren’t leaky; they are considered “perfect” vaccines. As such, they are in no way in danger of falling prey to this phenomenon.
But the results do raise the questions for some human vaccines that are leaky…
The 1970s introduction of the Marek’s disease immunizations for baby chicks kept the poultry industry from collapse, but people soon learned that vaccinated birds were catching “the bug” without subsequently dying. Then, over the last half century, symptoms for Marek’s worsened. Paralysis was more permanent; brains more quickly turned to mush.
This chicken vaccine makes its virus more dangerous
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous• Half Of New Israel Covid-19 Cases In Last Month Were Fully Vaccinated
Something odd which I noticed today:
This month, the effective reproduction rate (R) for Israel soared from 0.79 to 2.29 (as of June 22).
For Israel, this is the highest that R has been since March of 2020.
Above 1.0 is bad news.
The US is currently at 0.88, and Sweden is at 0.46, as of June 22.
The US has been below 1.0 since mid-April of this year, and so has Greece (for example).Estimate of the effective reproduction rate (R) of COVID-19
The reproduction rate represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual. If the rate is greater than 1, the infection is able to spread in the population. If it is below 1, the number of cases occurring in the population will gradually decrease to zero.Link to graph showing this, where any country can be added:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Reproduction+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=ISR~SWE~USA~GBR• Nearly All US COVID Deaths Now Among Unvaccinated People (NYP)
Using the CDC’s numbers (which they say are “likely an undercount”) , it works out to 2.26% of “Covid-19 deaths” were in the fully vaccinated group, during the period from May 1 to June 14. (The number of fully vaccinated people on May 1 was 101 Million, and on June 14 was 144 Million.)
The vaccines supposedly reduce an individual’s chances of catching Covid-19 by around 1% (as enumerated at the top of today’s Debt Rattle), but in a population of more than 300 million people, the total number of “Covid-19 deaths” added up to 22,566 during that period, with only 511 of those deaths attributed (by the CDC) to vaccine breakthrough cases.
To be clear, the estimates I made earlier (using the CDC’s numbers) about the relative number of hospitalizations and deaths of breakthrough cases are looking at what happens once a vaccinated person gets a symptomatic infection.
So, the limited data indicates that the vaccinated have less chance of becoming a Covid case statistic (and I don’t know how much of the difference in numbers is actually due to the vaccine, and how much is potentially due to multiple other causes, such as prevention behaviors, undercounting, etc.)
But, according to the CDC data I presented earlier, for the fully vaccinated people who later get a symptomatic case of Covid, they have a significantly higher chance of being hospitalized or dying, compared to unvaccinated people with symptomatic infections.
And it’s all conditional on the quality of the data.
From the original AP article:
“The CDC itself has not estimated what percentage of hospitalizations and deaths are in fully vaccinated people, citing limitations in the data.”From the CDC:
“The number of COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections reported to CDC likely are an undercount of all SARS-CoV-2 infections among fully vaccinated persons… These surveillance data are a snapshot and help identify patterns and look for signals among vaccine breakthrough cases.”https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htmRegarding the parenting of children, I think that overblown fears can warp the good intentions, such that a line is crossed, into the territory of harmful (irrational, even) actions. (I’m mixing the metaphors tonight.)
Regarding the “covid!!!” and “vaccine!!!” scary stories, I’m resisting the push to move in any direction (other than the one already determined by me), if it doesn’t ring true to me.
upstateNYer: “that stat on kids under 12 is disturbing”
Yes, it’s saddening. Reminds me of the saying, “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” But in this case, instead of “good intentions” it looks more like “overblown fears.”
A recent study on breakthrough infections of fully vaccinated military personnel (most of them without any comorbidities) found that severe symptoms can occur among the non-hospitalized cases (which are not being counted by the CDC, by the way), transmission is possible from the fully vaccinated, and found an unexpected range of Covid variants (in the breakthrough cases) “not previously associated with significant vaccine immune escape in-vitro, including B.1.1, B.1.1.519, B.1.2, and B.1.243 genotypes.”
Abstract
Little is known about SARS-CoV-2 ‘vaccine-breakthrough’ infections (VBI). Here we characterize 24 VBI in predominantly young healthy persons. While none required hospitalization, a proportion endorsed severe symptoms and shed live virus as high as 4.13 x 10 3 PFU/mL. Infecting genotypes included both variant-of-concern (VOC) and non-VOC strains.The SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine breakthrough infection phenotype includes significant symptoms, live virus shedding, and viral genetic diversity
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab543/6297424phoenixvoice: “I’ve spoken about Covid vaccination with each of my 3 teens… My kids trust me.”
That’s probably the best news I’ve read today.
On the other hand, I saw some CDC data for “Age Groups of People Fully Vaccinated” which shows that in the US, 96,957 children under age 12 are now fully vaccinated for Covid-19, plus another 59,238 kids (under 12) got the second shot less than 14 days ago. This is despite the fact that the FDA hasn’t authorized the vaccines for anyone under age 12 (Pfizer) or age 18 (Moderna and J&J).
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic
Israel’s prime minister gave a deadline for people (especially children) to get vaccinated. He says they don’t have vaccines available for anyone who doesn’t get their first dose by July 9.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned that Israel’s vaccine stock would soon expire… The prime minister called for all children from age 12 to be vaccinated as soon as possible…”Most of the vaccines we hold will expire by the end of July, and so it is necessary to receive the first dose by July 9. For anyone who is not vaccinated by then, we don’t have vaccines for later. At the moment we have stocks. The rate of vaccination is not good, just 2,000 daily. I call on parents: Go out immediately and have your children vaccinated.
https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-dont-travel-abroad-bennett-tells-israelis-1001375553
Meanwhile, those vaccines aren’t working as well as hoped against the new variants.
Government admits that half of new Covid-19 cases in last month were fully vaccinated
Despite data, government is launching expanded campaign to vaccinate everyone over 12.• Israel Urges Parents To Vaccinate Kids Ages 12-15 (JPost)
In an article I read yesterday (can’t find it at the moment), a spokesperson in Israel said that they have a large number of vaccine doses on hand that are near their expiration date, and they are now encouraging children to get their first dose by June 29, so these doses can be used.
Article from today, about the vaccines doses rejected by the Palestinian Authority (PA):
Health chief: Same vaccines rejected by PA being given to our kids ‘right now’
Palestinians sent back 90,000 vaccines expiring at end of June, saying they were not okay, but Israel using doses with same expiration date to vaccinate children aged 12-15• More Than 2m Adults In England Have Had Long Covid For Over 12 Weeks (G.)
Raúl is right: ‘Many healthy people also have “fatigue-related symptoms” due to lockdowns.’
“Fatigue is one of the most common symptoms of depression. There can be physical effects (lack of energy), emotional effects (apathy), and cognitive effects (difficulty concentrating).” [quoted from a quick search result]
Tiredness is one of the 29 symptoms that would indicate Long Covid in the study (if at least one of the 29 symptoms is experienced for 12 weeks or more). “Difficulty concentrating” sounds like the brain-fog mentioned in the study.
There was no control group, almost like the study was designed to overestimate the prevalence of Long Covid. Especially since the researchers were obviously aware of this limitation: “However, as the study was based on self-reported data and because many of the symptoms are common and not specific to COVID-19, we may, as noted, have overestimated the prevalence of persistent symptoms.”
The self-selected respondents to a large survey (less than 30% responded) may have tended to be those with more persistent symptoms, and as the researchers wrote in the paper, “it is plausible that people with persistent symptoms may have been more likely to participate in order to ascertain their antibody status [since a home antibody self-test was being offered to participants].”
Looking at the tabular results for comorbidities, it’s interesting that the participants with a prior history of depression had “Long Covid” more frequently than the participants who had a prior history of diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, liver disease, cancer, asthma… Hmm.
And gross household income had a big influence. For participants in a household with less than 15,000 income, 51% got Long Covid, compared to 32% of those with at least 50,000 income getting Long Covid.
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/89844
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/89844/2/REACT_long_covid_paper_FINAL.pdfIsrael says it’s facing a new COVID-19 outbreak fueled by the Delta variant, despite having the world’s most vaccinated population
https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-seeing-new-covid-19-outbreak-despite-vaccine-success-2021-6
• Mass Vaccination Drives A Rapid Evolutionary Response Of SARS-CoV-2 (VDBossche)
VDBossche was expecting a surge of cases in Israel, “due to resistance of the virus to vaccinal antibodies in vaccinees,” to occur “before summer.”
FAQ updated: May 25, 2021
[#13 ]
How can it be explained that in Israel it seems that the massive vaccination has almost stopped the pandemic and no dramatic effects are being observed over people that have been vaccinated?It’s just a matter of weeks for a surge in Israel to occur due to resistance of the virus to vaccinal antibodies in vaccinees. I expect this surge to occur before summer.
https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/faq
Well, summer has arrived, and is there a surge in Israel? I don’t know, but one might be starting. 10 out of “at least a dozen” new cases among teachers at one school were vaccinated. The government’s response: Vaccinate the kids! (even though the vast majority of infected kids don’t get more than mild symptoms).
June 21, 2021
Israel urges parents to vaccinates kids ages 12-15 amid COVID outbreakAt least a dozen teachers at a special needs school in the Sharon region tested positive for coronavirus, including 10 who were vaccinated…
On Saturday, the ministry announced that several coronavirus cases had been discovered in a school in Binyamina. After some 45 students tested positive, the ministry ordered on Sunday that masks must be worn… Only nine of the students who tested positive were reported to have been experiencing any coronavirus symptoms.
Some 46 people were identified as coronavirus carriers on Saturday, with 0.3% of the tests performed returning a positive result.
For clarification, the disadvantages of vaccination shown in my comment above are only related to Covid-19 infections, and don’t include any hospitalizations or deaths due to adverse reactions from the vaccines.
• Nearly 4,000 Fully Vaccinated People in MA Positive for COVID-19
Data for such “breakthrough cases” is being selectively released, and with major spin. I assembled some of the limited data that is available, and made some very rough estimates. It doesn’t look good for the vaccinated.
Among those who get a Covid-19 infection that’s symptomatic, the fully vaccinated (breakthrough cases) have a significantly higher likelihood of hospitalization than the unvaccinated. And looking at the resulting deaths as a percentage of the number of those hospitalized with a Covid-19 infection, the fully vaccinated are dying at a significantly higher rate than the unvaccinated.
Percentage of Symptomatic cases which are Hospitalized:
Unvaccinated 5.8%
Vaccinated 9.4%Deaths as a percentage of Hospitalized cases:
Unvaccinated 10%
Vaccinated 19%Below is the data and math behind my estimates (for the US).
For the Unvaccinated:
Covid-19 Symptomatic Illnesses from Feb 2020 to March 2021 (CDC estimate) = 97.1 Million
Covid-19 Hospitalizations from Feb 2020 to March 2021 (CDC estimate) = 5.6 Million
Percentage of Symptomatic cases which are Hospitalized = 5.6/97.1 = 5.8%
(This is the same percentage as for Feb-Dec 2020 when almost zero percent of the population was fully vaccinated.)
Covid-19 Deaths through March 2021 = 0.569 Million [Worldometer]
Deaths as a percentage of Hospitalized cases (unvaccinated) = 0.569/5.6 = 10%For the Fully Vaccinated:
Using CDC data through April 30
“A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30, 2021. Among these cases, 6,446 (63%) occurred in females, and the median patient age was 58 years (interquartile range = 40–74 years). Based on preliminary data, 2,725 (27%) vaccine breakthrough infections were asymptomatic, 995 (10%) patients were known to be hospitalized, and 160 (2%) patients died. Among the 995 hospitalized patients, 289 (29%) were asymptomatic or hospitalized for a reason unrelated to COVID-19… 28 (18%) decedents were asymptomatic or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19.” [CDC data through April 30]
Number of Symptomatic breakthrough cases = 10,262-2,725 = 7,537
Number of Symptomatic breakthrough cases which are Hospitalized = 995-289 = 706
Percentage of Symptomatic breakthrough cases which are Hospitalized = 706/7,537 = 9.4%
Hospitalized (symptomatic) breakthrough cases resulting in death from Covid-19= 160-28 = 132
Deaths as a percentage of Hospitalized (symptomatic) cases (fully vaccinated) = 132/706 = 19%Using CDC data through June 14
Hospitalized COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC as of June 14 = 3,538
Fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC as of June 14 = 671
Deaths as a percentage of Hospitalized cases (fully vaccinated) = 19%Links to the published data (CDC) will be given in my next comment below.
Another example of mainstream “news” disinformation, stoking fear and maintaining the narrative:
Unvaccinated Americans are at risk of an aggressive and more dangerous Covid-19 variant. These are the most vulnerable states
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/21/us/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
absolute galore: “Re: kid’s face masks. My son developed a mask rash…”
“Maskne” is now a thing, and mask wearing can lead to at least 10 types of dermatosis, affecting 54% of mask wearers (in one study). Yet another cost to the practice of mask wearing, making it more difficult to justify their widespread use.
An underreported problem with the “follow the science” narrative is that even among scientists, their opinions vary and their judgments are based on personal interpretations and values (not “science”.)
For example, it doesn’t seem widely understood that even the FDA’s advisory committee (of vetted experts) is divided on whether the Covid vaccines should be authorized for children. There is significant disagreement among the scientists.
Several committee members said they didn’t feel the U.S. was still in an emergency with COVID, and couldn’t see the FDA allowing a vaccine to be used in kids that wasn’t given the agency’s highest level of scrutiny, particularly with reports of adverse events like myocarditis coming to light…
“FDA can only approve a medical product in a population if the benefits outweigh the risks in that population,” says Peter Doshi, PhD, assistant professor of pharmaceutical health services research in the University of Maryland’s School of Pharmacy.
“If benefits don’t outweigh risks in children, it can’t be indicated for children. Full stop,” adds Doshi, who is also an editor at the BMJ.
There’s another way to give children access to vaccines, he says: through an expanded access or compassionate use program. Since most pediatric COVID deaths have been in children with underlying health conditions, Doshi and others say it might make sense to allow expanded access — which would get vaccines to children at high risk for complications — before turning them loose on millions before they are more thoroughly studied.
“It’s not a particularly attractive option for industry, because there’s no money to be made. Your medicine can’t be commercialized under expanded access. The most you can reap is manufacturing cost, which is not a lot,” he says.”
Another example where esteemed scientists and experts are contradicting the mainstream narrative:
Why we petitioned the FDA to refrain from fully approving any covid-19 vaccine this yearWhy we petitioned the FDA to refrain from fully approving any covid-19 vaccine this year
Government site where that petition has been posted:
@ DarkMatter
I suggest that you (and everyone here) download this letter to the FDA sent earlier this month by a group of concerned medical professionals (including Peter Doshi, associate editor at the British Medical Journal BMJ.)
This letter (a petition actually) spells out, in detail, why the Covid vaccines should not be licensed (approved) until some specific studies are done to ensure their long-term safety. There is a lot of information presented here, including biodistribution study results from Pfizer and Moderna.
The references at the end of the document include links to the various related studies and articles..
https://downloads.regulations.gov/FDA-2021-P-0521-0001/attachment_1.pdf
Below are some quotes from the petition. The reference numbers throughout the text correspond to the linked studies and article listed at the end of the document.
“Recently, evidence of systemic circulation of spike protein or its components in subjects post-immunization was reported.15 All studies we are aware of to date raise concerns about the safety of spike protein,16–28 and the concentration of circulatory spikes was correlated to the disease severity in COVID-19 patients.29”
“The vaccines induce the generation of antibodies to attack spike protein, which are genetically similar to proteins produced by the placenta.30 To date, no vaccine sponsors have conducted immunologic studies of spike protein involvement with proteins involved in placental development.”
“Carcinogenesis. There is preliminary and theoretical evidence that the spike protein may promote cancer.31,32 Considering the potential for annual booster vaccinations, COVID-19 vaccines should be treated similarly to medication taken for chronic conditions on a long term basis. Carcinogenic potential is important to characterize”
“Transmission of spike protein (or its fragments) from vaccinated individuals, such as through breast milk and associated risk in neonates and infants. According to the UK Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, there are 921 reports of exposure via breast milk following AstraZeneca’s vaccine and 215 reports following Pfizer’s vaccine.”
“4. Require data from biodistribution studies investigating the actual COVID-19 vaccines.
Rationale:
Data from the biodistribution studies submitted by Moderna and Pfizer suggests that the vaccines distribute widely in the body, including to the liver, brain, heart, lung, adrenals, ovaries, and testes, among many other tissues.34,35 (See Tables 1a, 1b, and 2 below for studies R-[?]-0072 and 185350 submitted by Pfizer and study 5002121 submitted by Moderna.)
b. However these were not studies of the currently authorized products: Pfizer’s BNT162b2, Moderna’s mRNA-1273, or Janssen’s Ad26.COV2.S.34–36
c. Instead of presenting novel biodistribution studies of the COVID-19 vaccine formulations, sponsors presented substitute studies to FDA for an EUA during the pandemic.34–36
d. Therefore, novel biodistribution studies investigating the actual COVID-19 vaccines are necessary.
e. Biodistribution studies would be required for any small molecule pharmaceutical drug submitted for approval (i.e. New Drug Application), and should be conducted on the COVID-19 vaccines as well as these novel vaccines which work on the premise of gene delivery–very different to conventional vaccines.”CNBC article from today;
“Biden says delta Covid variant is ‘particularly dangerous’ for young people”President Joe Biden on Friday doubled down on his administration’s plea to Americans to get vaccinated against Covid-19 as quickly as possible, warning the highly transmissible delta variant appears to be “particularly dangerous” for young people.
“The data is clear: If you are unvaccinated, you’re at risk of getting seriously ill or dying or spreading it,” Biden said during a news conference from the White House.
Delta, the Covid variant first identified in India, “will leave unvaccinated people even more vulnerable than they were a month ago,” he added. “It is a variant that is more easily transmissible, potentially deadlier and particularly dangerous for young people.”
Biden said the best way young people can protect themselves is to get fully vaccinated. “Please, please if you have one shot, get the second shot as soon as you can,” he said.
In the UK, a government advisor is also ramping up the fear. “Sixty per cent more infectious is extremely worrying…” And the infamous Niel Ferguson weighed in with this, which speaks for itself:
“There’s still quite a lot of uncertainty about what the vaccine efficacy against the delta will be for those more severe forms of disease. It’s well within the possibility that we could see another third wave, at least comparable in terms of hospitalisations, maybe not as severe as the second wave. Almost certainly I think that deaths probably will be lower. The vaccines are having a highly protective effect, and cases in hospital are milder, but still it could be quite worrying. There is a lot of uncertainty.”
Yet, in the same article from the British Medical Journal BMJ, from June 15, the risk to children is downplayed (despite the fact that the Delta variant “now accounts for 90% of UK cases”).
We’re not seeing any evidence of an increase in paediatric admissions with covid. A very small number of admissions who test positive for covid is what we’d expect.
“Our experience over the last 15 months is that many children who test positive have come into hospital for something else, like broken bones. At the moment the situation in the UK is stable. The number of children in hospital with covid remains very low.”
Delta variant: What is happening with transmission, hospital admissions, and restrictions?
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1513.fullRegarding the fearsome Delta variant, I’ve seen many articles touting this new-and-improved coronavirus (“60% more transmissible.”)
I tracked down the actual study to see how this 60% number was obtained. The study looked at household transmission, comparing households with clustered infections (at least 2 cases within 2 weeks) to households with a single (“sporadic”) case of Covid.
The Covid variant was determined for each of the households with a cluster (of at least 2 cases), and for each of the households with a single cases of Covid. The idea is that a single case in a household would tend to be associated with a less-transmissible variant, while a cluster of cases in a household would tend to be associated with a more-transmissible variant.
Here is the result (which works out to “60% more transmissible” after various adjustments):
5.8% of cases in household clusters were confirmed Delta variant compared to 4.7% of sporadic cases.That’s it. Doesn’t sound so scary now. Even less scary when you consider that the researchers didn’t know the household sizes, meaning that the sporadic cases could have been in a household consisting of a single person, making transmission within the household impossible since there was nobody else there.
There are several limitations to this study. Firstly, we did not have information on household size, which is likely to have an effect on the estimates of transmissibility. For example, some controls (sporadic cases) will have lived alone and have no chance of onward transmission within their residence and becoming a household cluster...
Furthermore, the vaccination status of household contacts, which would impact onward transmission in this setting, was unknown…
Increased household transmission of COVID-19 cases associated with SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern B.1.617.2: a national case control study
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/405676950/Increased+Household+Transmission+of+COVID-19+Cases+-+national+case+study.pdf/7f7764fb-ecb0-da31-77b3-b1a8ef7be9aaI unsuccessfully tried to post a comment with some data about adverse reactions to the vaccines in Hong Kong, so I’m hoping that Ilargi can unblock it.
Only two types of Covid vaccines are given in Hong Kong: Pfizer and Sinovac. Guess which one has the worst adverse events.
• Hong Kong Pays Off 3 Patients Who Suffered “Adverse” Reaction To Vaccines (ZH)
I think the real story is: Which vaccine is causing the worst adverse reactions in Hong Kong?
Hong Kong is giving only two types of Covid vaccine: Pfizer (“Comirnaty”) and Sinovac (“CoronaVac”). Through the end of May, they’ve given 1.3 million injections of the Pfizer, and 1.0 million of the Sinovac.
Hong Kong’s records of major adverse events such as hospitalization or death, during the last two weeks of May:
Deaths: Pfizer 1, Sinovac 0
Hospitalizations: Pfizer 34, Sinovac 18
Bell’s Palsy: Pfizer 10, Sinovac 4
Guillian-Barre Syndrome: Pfizer 1, Sinovac 0For the entire vaccination period (not just the last two weeks of May), the data in the report was limited, but this was noted:
Total number of adverse event reports (including the less serious symptoms): Pfizer 1,502, Sinovac 1,787
Bell’s Palsy (per million doses): Pfizer 29, Sinovac 37
Deaths reported (supposedly not linked to the vaccines): Pfizer 8, Sinovac 13
Thrombocytopenia: Pfizer 1, Sinovac 0https://www.drugoffice.gov.hk/eps/do/en/doc/Safety_Monitoring_of_COVID-19_Vaccines_in_Hong_Kong.pdf
Tomorrow (Friday) is the CDC’s “emergency meeting” to discuss the unexpected heart inflammation problems following the mRNA injections, along with a “benefit-risk” discussion regarding adolescents.
Funny how the CDC changed the name from
“June 18, 2021 emergency meeting”
to
“June 18, 2021 COVID-19 meeting”Archived:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210612063727/https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/index.htmlCurrently:
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/index.htmlRelated comments can be made here:
https://www.regulations.gov/document/CDC-2021-0060-0001/WES: “I also wonder if the Sinovac is causing fewer adverse reactions?”
Based on the data from the vaccine trials, I’d expect significantly fewer.
The Sinovac vaccine is getting some bad press today about breakthrough cases in Indonesia, without any comparison to the number of breakthrough cases in the US.
But, looking at the limited data that’s available, the breakthrough cases in the US (primarily mRNA vaccines) could be worse than the Sinovac breakthrough cases in Indonesia.
US
102 per million (before the CDC stopped counting them)
27% asymptomatic
2% diedIndonesia
? per million
“Most” of them asymptomatic
1.7% diedHundreds of vaccinated Indonesian health workers get COVID-19, dozens in hospital
USA breakthrough cases (data from the CDC):
A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30, 2021… Based on preliminary data, 2,725 (27%) vaccine breakthrough infections were asymptomatic, 995 (10%) patients were known to be hospitalized, and 160 (2%) patients died…
As of April 30, 2021, approximately 101 million persons in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections Reported to CDC — United States, January 1–April 30, 2021
10,262 out of 101 million =
102 per million (US)
27% asymptomatic
10% hospitalized
2% diedIndonesia breakthrough cases (data from the Reuters article linked above):
More than 350 doctors and medical workers have caught COVID-19 in Indonesia despite being vaccinated with Sinovac and dozens have been hospitalised, officials said… Most of the workers were asymptomatic and self-isolating at home… Across Indonesia, at least five doctors and one nurse have died from COVID-19 despite being vaccinated, according to LaporCOVID-19, although one had only received a first shot.
As of 17 June 2021… 11,999,104 people had been fully vaccinated [in Indonesia]. (Wikipedia)
? per million got Sinovac (in Indonesia)
“Most” were asymptomatic
6 reported deaths = 1.7% of 350 cases.In the attempt to stabilize the spike protein in the pre-fusion configuration, Pfizer and Moderna are using the 2P proline substitution, while vaccine developers in Australia used another approach. They introduced a fragment of an HIV protein to the spike, which stabilized it. What could possibly go wrong? All of the participants in the vaccine trials tested positive for HIV as a result (“false positive”), and the vaccine was scrapped.
Coronavirus vaccine from UQ and CSL abandoned after HIV response which scientists say was ‘unexpected’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/covid19-vaccine-csl-uq-hiv-element-what-went-wrong/12973952• The Killer in the Bloodstream: the “Spike Protein” (Whitney)
The defenders of the mRNA vaccines insist that the spike proteins resulting from the vaccines are not a problem, because the spikes have been stabilized in the “pre-fusion” configuration, by having “two proline substitutions” (2P) engineered into them.
In theory, if the spike proteins are stabilized this way, they cannot fuse with cells in the body.
In the real world, however, the 2P spike proteins are still “unstable,” according to an article in the journal Science. So who knows what’s they’re actually doing in the body. Because of these problems with the 2P substitution (used in the current mRNA vaccines), researchers are working on a version of the spike protein with six substitutions.So, despite all the “debunking” and censoring of claims about the vaccines being able to cause damage from spike proteins circulating in the body, a couple dozen medical professionals and professors, including Peter Doshi (senior editor at the BMJ), Peter McCullough, and Patrick Whelan, submitted a related petition to the FDA two weeks ago.
Here’s a portion of their petition which relates to the spike proteins caused by the vaccines:
3. Require data on the safety and pharmacokinetic profiles of the spike protein.
Rationale:
a. In-situ production of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is the target mechanism of action of all COVID-19 vaccines with an EUA at present. Therefore, the safety profile of spike protein itself (i.e., in the absence of virus) must be thoroughly understood in the range of populations on the indications list.
b. Recently, evidence of systemic circulation of spike protein or its components in subjects post-immunization was reported.15 All studies we are aware of to date raise concerns about the safety of spike protein,16–28 and the concentration of circulatory spikes was correlated to the disease severity in COVID-19 patients.29
c. Required studies must, at a minimum, address these concerns:
i. Coagulopathy issues, including blood clots, hemorrhage, thrombocytopenia, heart attack, and strokes. According to the VAERS, as of May 21, 2021, there have been a total of 1,222 reports of thrombocytopenia/low platelets; and 6,494 (112 in 0-24 year-olds) reports of blood clots/strokes.
ii. Reproductive issues, including menstrual irregularities, reduced fertility, miscarriages, and preterm births. According to VAERS, as of May 21, 2021, there were 511 reports of miscarriage and 522 reports of uterine hemorrhage (including 88 in women older than 50 years). The vaccines induce the generation of antibodies to attack spike protein, which are genetically similar to proteins produced by the placenta.30 To date, no vaccine sponsors have conducted immunologic studies of spike protein involvement with proteins involved in placental development.
iii. Carcinogenesis. There is preliminary and theoretical evidence that the spike protein may promote cancer.31,32 Considering the potential for annual booster vaccinations, COVID-19 vaccines should be treated similarly to medication taken for chronic conditions on a long term basis. Carcinogenic potential is important to characterize.
iv. Transmission of spike protein (or its fragments) from vaccinated individuals, such as through breast milk and associated risk in neonates and infants. According to the UK Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, there are 921 reports of exposure via breast milk following AstraZeneca’s vaccine and 215 reports following Pfizer’s vaccine.
v. Neurological disorders, including Guillain-Barré syndrome, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, transverse myelitis, encephalitis, myelitis, encephalomyelitis, meningoencephalitis, meningitis, encephalopathy, demyelinating diseases, and multiple sclerosis.
vi. Cardiac issues, including myocardial infarction, myocarditis and pericarditis, among others. According to the VAERS, as of May 21, 2021, there have been a total of 1,598 reports of heart attacks (24 reported in 0-24 year-olds; 501 resulted in death).
vii. Autoimmune diseases, including thyroiditis and diabetes mellitus, immune thrombocytopenia, autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, systemic sclerosis, autoimmune disease for skeletal muscles (myasthenia gravis, myositis such as polymyositis, dermatomyositis, or other inflammatory myopathies)
viii. Studies should be conducted in individuals of both sexes33 and all ages. We cannot assume that the effects of spike protein are the same across populations of all ages, sex, and across pre-existing conditions.
https://www.regulations.gov/document/FDA-2021-P-0521-0001
https://downloads.regulations.gov/FDA-2021-P-0521-0001/attachment_1.pdf
Reference to “unstable” 2P spike proteins
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6510/1501.fullSorry about the wrong link to the video clip, which is now correct:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofQ6i9I1IYYWes: “The drug companies and corrupt public health officials getting kick backs all feel this was a small price for others to pay, so they could make tens of billions in quick profits.”
The potential deaths of others is a risk they are willing to take.
[10 second clip from Dumb and Dumber]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofQ6i9I1IYY@ phoenixvoice
The CDC has decreed that people are fully vaccinated if “they have received the requisite doses of any of the vaccines authorized by the W.H.O.” So, Sinovac’s vaccine qualifies in the US.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tried to provide guidance. The agency considers people fully vaccinated several weeks after they have received the requisite doses of any of the vaccines authorized by the W.H.O., said a spokeswoman, Kristen Nordlund.
Besides the three vaccines currently available in the United States under emergency authorization by the F.D.A., the world body has, according to its website, also approved three versions of the AstraZeneca vaccine, including one made in England and one made in India; the Sinopharm vaccine, which is manufactured in China; and, as of this week, the Sinovac vaccine, also made in China.
@ phoenixvoice
New York Times article from June 3:
Colleges Say Students Must Get a Covid Vaccine. But No, Not That One.
Vaccine requirements were designed mostly for American students. That is presenting hurdles for international students without access to one of the eight W.H.O.-approved vaccines.Fortunately, the Sinovac vaccine is “WHO-approved.” If it’s good enough for college students living in dorms, it should be good enough for other students and employees. I think that schools and employers who wouldn’t accept a “WHO-approved” vaccine would be on shaky legal ground.
“Psychologists call this ‘projection’.”
It sounds like religious fervor and religious intolerance.
“Jesus in a syringe.”
Open up the gates of the church and let me out of here
Too many people have lied…
For anyone to heed the call
So many people have died…
That I can’t believe it allfrom Cathedral
Crosby, Stills, & Nash
