Saudi Arabia Archives - The Automatic Earth

The picture is getting clearer. We are now experiencing a massive ai powered fearporn psyop campaign. https://t.co/99btwIVI9i
— Robert W Malone, MD (@RWMaloneMD) September 15, 2026

The FBI File on Trump's Assassin Just Leaked…Everything They Told You is A Lie

New evidence just blew up the Thomas Crooks narrative.

Two mystery men were with him at a gun store weeks before Butler. Another unidentified man trained with him the day before.

Even more… pic.twitter.com/51DVuUmd18
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 15, 2026

BREAKING: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says every car in the world will become autonomous. https://t.co/O5vMJDgHQz pic.twitter.com/W86zJjHdhv
— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) September 14, 2026

https://twitter.com/DN_degen/status/2100146408900694283?s=20

Ursula von der Leyen is the product of indirect democracy. It’s as if Congress elected the US president.

There are good reasons why it doesn’t.

Biut von der Leyen does have a lot of power. Which is a really bad idea.

Europe, since 2019, when she first appeared, has lost a lot of terrain. And money.

The EU is a costly facade that doesn’t do anything countries’ governments couldn’t do better.

It’s sad to watch a globalist mob destroy an entire continent.

• State of the Union: Five takeaways From Ursula Von Der Leyen’s Speech (Euronews)

Canada, hybrid warfare, climate change, digital safety and migration were front and centre at Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” With this iconic Charles Dickens quote, Ursula von der Leyen began her one-hour-long State of the Union speech in Strasbourg, laying out solutions to cope with the “exceptional” challenges and the “incredible” change that Europe is undergoing.”In this world, Europe has chosen to forge its own path. And a stronger, independent Europe is now emerging,” she told lawmakers. “Europe is there for Europeans. And that in the cold fragility of today’s world, only Europe can provide true sovereignty to Europeans.”
Here are the five takeaways from the address.
‘Associate membership’ for Canada
This was the day’s jaw-dropping moment. The European Commission president offered to create a tailor-made status of “associate membership” to bring Canada ever closer to the bloc. “We share one ocean, one set of values, one way of seeing the world. And we will now build our shared future as well,” she told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who flew from Ottawa to Strasbourg to attend the speech as guest of honour.
She hailed the dawn of an “alliance for the future” to deepen EU-Canada cooperation in areas such as economic security, intelligent manufacturing, cutting-edge technology, defence, energy, critical minerals and batteries, as well as the Arctic region. However, details of what “associate membership” would mean in practice were left unsaid. It remains unclear how it would fit in the current structures of the EU treaties. A previous attempt by the German chancellor to grant “associate membership” to Ukraine swiftly disappeared after backlash from capitals.
Von der Leyen simply said the newfound status would bring EU-Canada relations “to the highest level possible”, prompting loud applause inside the hemicycle. Ahead of the speech, a poll conducted by Abacus Data showed that 49% of Canadians supported EU membership, while 30% opposed it and 21% were unsure. These are exceptional numbers for a country that lies on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean and reflect the political damage inflicted by US President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs and repeated attempts to annex Canada.
Climate action made a comeback for self-evident reasons.
Von der Leyen framed the summer of 2026 as the “summer of truth”, pointing to wildfires, retreating glaciers, water shortages, crop losses and extreme heat that have wreaked havoc across the continent. She cited 660,000 hectares burned, 12 million tonnes of crops lost and more than 35,000 additional deaths during heatwaves. “Science is clear. Europe is warming at double the global rate. Of course, the transition is complex. And we will need to adjust and learn along the way,” she said.
The immediate response will be a European Heatwave Plan, which von der Leyen said will address early-warning systems, health preparedness, urban adaptation, cooling and protection for vulnerable groups. Her Commission is set to present a new climate resilience framework next month, already expected, that will identify 100 of the bloc’s most vulnerable territories, assess their risks and determine the appropriate level of responsibility for managing them. Insurance was another major vulnerability flagged by von der Leyen.
Only around 25% of catastrophe losses in Europe are currently covered by private insurance, she said, leaving governments to act as the insurer of last resort. Her services will put forward a Climate Insurance Alliance to close that glaring gap. She also promised a European Water initiative to fix costly leaks and a European firefighting fleet to respond to wildfires.
As expected, defence featured high in the speech, which came amid a string of hybrid attacks, some of which were attributed to Russia, that have rattled Europe. “We should be under no illusions about what is happening here: hybrid threats facing Europe are less and less hybrid and less and less threats,” von der Leyen said. “Cyberattacks and sabotage, arson and drone incursions. They are ramping up every day. So, as the threat level climbs, so must Europe’s preparedness.”
She then proposed a brand-new mechanism fashioned on NATO’s Article 4 that member states would trigger in the event of a hybrid attack. This would launch political consultations to “coordinate” an EU response and “deter further escalation”. Article 4 in the NATO context means that any country of the 32-strong alliance can call for an urgent meeting to discuss a new threat. It is the precursor to collective defence under Article 5, which stipulates that an attack on one is an attack on all.
Von der Leyen also pitched creating a “European Security Council” to bring together the leaders of Ukraine, the UK, Norway, Canada and other democratic partners. “This is even more urgent now, given the nature and scale of the risks at play,” she said.= How this Council will go from idea to reality is anyone’s guess at the moment.

“..potential rival to NATO ..”

• Von der Leyen To Call For ‘European Security Council’ (EurActiv)

The potential rival to NATO will come with a call for an ‘Alliance for the future’ with Canada, according to a draft

– Ursula von der Leyen will propose a radical change to Europe’s security architecture and the NATO Western alliance when she takes the floor in the European Parliament on Wednesday. Leaders from the EU, plus Ukraine, Britain, Norway, Canada and others, should convene in a new format to coordinate responses to mounting security threats, she will say according to a draft of her annual State of the EU speech seen in advance by Euractiv.
“This is even more urgent now, given the nature and scale of the risks at play. This is why we will set out our ideas to make a European Security Council a reality,” the draft speech reads. The EU should also create a new “security protocol” – modelled on NATO’s Article 4 – which an EU member state could trigger in order to convene all others. The NATO article allows members of the alliance to request consultations when they believe their security or territorial integrity is under threat.
“We are strengthening our work with NATO. But our doctrine, our institutions and our decision making have not kept pace with the new reality,” she will say, according to the draft. The idea of creating a European Security Council, which has previously been floated as a Franco-German initiative, gained renewed momentum following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius repeatedly calling for its establishment.
It would emerge as a potential rival to NATO, and it’s unclear whether Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary-general, or Donald Trump, the US president, would welcome such a format. Von der Leyen’s plan is a major departure from her previous speech in 2025.
Alliance building
In the presence of Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, von der Leyen will pitch Canada as a key partner for Europe, proposing an “Alliance for the future” to deepen cooperation between the two sides. The new relationship is being touted as everything but full membership of the EU, which the Commission views as legally impossible due to the North American country’s geography.“We want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible,” she will say, according to the draft.
[…]
The Commission president’s speech will focus on three tipping points: climate, AI and industrial competitiveness. She is expected to invite tech heavyweights for a discussion on pacing AI development. Her speech will also formally announce that the EU will present a Kids Act on Thursday, and, according to previous reporting from Euractiv on the leaked text, it will limit access to online services for children under 15 years old.
“I am aware that many perceive the power of big tech as overwhelming,” von der Leyen is expected to say, adding that “Europe has the power to act. It is us who decide our rules, not big tech”. She is also expected to announce an EU-wide heatwave plan for early-warning detection and health planning.As previously reported by Euractiv, the Commission president will also put forward a new migration initiative following the Ceuta crisis in Spain.
Von der Leyen will propose a “European Emergency Response Framework” to guide the EU’s response to what she will define as “engineered and weaponised” mass movements. “It will only be triggered under a strictly defined set of criteria. And in those cases, it will allow for a time-limited and strictly defined flexibility of standard procedures,” the draft reads.

Trump may close the border.

• EU Opens Door For Canada To Become Bloc’s First-Ever “Associate Member” (ZH)

Thanks to how mean President Trump has been, Canada could become the first-ever “associate member” of the European Union under a proposal unveiled Wednesday by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as Ottawa looks to reduce its economic dependence on the United States.

Speaking during her annual State of the Union address in Strasbourg, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the front row as the first foreign head of government ever to attend the speech, von der Leyen said Brussels wants to take its relationship with Canada to an unprecedented level. “We must urgently reimagine our partnerships,” von der Leyen said, before telling Carney she wanted to work with him on “opening the door for Canada to be the first associate member of the EU.” There is just one complication: no such status currently exists.
EU treaties allow European countries to apply for full membership, while Brussels maintains an assortment of trade, association and single-market agreements with countries outside the bloc. But “associate membership” would be something new, meaning its rights, obligations and legal structure would have to be negotiated essentially from scratch. Reuters notes that any serious move toward such a status would also face the politically difficult task of winning support from all 27 EU member states.
And Carney himself has stopped short of calling for full EU membership. On Sunday, after a Wall Street Journal report that Canada was exploring membership, he described what Ottawa is seeking as a “unique alliance” with Europe. He addresses the European Parliament on Thursday. The substance of what Brussels is proposing, however, goes considerably beyond another trade agreement.
Canada and the EU already have CETA, their comprehensive free-trade deal. Von der Leyen said Wednesday that the two sides now want to move “from CETA to an Alliance for the Future” encompassing manufacturing, technology, defense, energy, critical minerals, batteries, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cybersecurity and Arctic security. “We will integrate defence industrial bases,” she said. That process has already begun.
Canada became the first non-European country allowed to participate in the EU’s €150 billion SAFE defense procurement program under an agreement signed in February and formally concluded by the EU Council in June. The arrangement allows eligible Canadian companies and Canadian-origin products to participate in procurement financed by the program. The EU-Canada defense relationship has also expanded into military mobility, interoperability, maritime and space security and defense-industrial cooperation.
Then there’s the economics of the idea. Roughly 70% of Canadian exports go to the United States, making any rapid decoupling unrealistic. At the same time, Trump’s tariffs and repeated talk of a 51st state have given Ottawa a powerful incentive to diversify. Europe, meanwhile, needs resources. Von der Leyen warned Wednesday that Europe remains more than 80% dependent on China for many critical raw materials, with dependence reaching 90% for some rare earths. “No country can do this alone,” she said.
Canada possesses significant reserves of nickel, uranium, potash, cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements, among other commodities increasingly regarded as strategic inputs for batteries, semiconductors, defense equipment and energy infrastructure. That makes a deeper Canada-EU relationship potentially complementary: Europe gets another source of strategic commodities and energy while Canada gets a large alternative market, industrial investment and greater access to European defense and technology programs.
There is nevertheless a potentially uncomfortable tradeoff for Ottawa. If “associate membership” eventually includes meaningful access to the EU’s roughly €18 trillion single market, Canada could be required to align portions of its regulatory regime with EU rules. Reuters notes that this could leave Ottawa accepting European regulations without receiving the voting rights enjoyed by actual EU members. Canada could gain market access while becoming, at least in some areas, a rule-taker rather than a rule-maker.

He’s a little man.

• Mark Carney Is Leading Canada ‘Right Over the Cliff’ (Victor Davis Hanson)

I know we’ve talked a lot about the current Canadian-American trade dispute, but it involves larger issues of globalism versus nationalism versus North American relations versus the United States paradigm versus the EU paradigm, etc., etc. And what’s happened is I would call it [Canadian Prime Minister] Mark Carney’s fantasy house, Mark Carney’s dream house, Mark Carney’s imaginarium. He has no … It doesn’t seem like he has any connection with reality. His economy has lost 41,000 jobs. It depends on exporting to the United States 72% to 76% of all of its products.
That is going to be very difficult. It is now difficult. It’s going to be almost impossible if he continues. He has to keep his oil wells going, and given the fact that other provinces have not been ready and willing to make pipelines to the rich tar sands of Alberta, he depends on a 4 million-barrel export a day to the United States. Some of it is thick tar sands, some of it has been diluted and is marketable elsewhere, but it’s a very good deal for Canada. When you talk about cutting that off, you’re talking about cutting your nose to spite your face.
This would be the most self-destructive thing. The fact that Canada even mentions it shows that they’re entering a period of delusional thinking. This new relationship with China, they’re bringing in 48,000 low-tariff, I think it’s only 6%, EVs. They’re going to ruin what little they had left of the Canadian auto industry. But more importantly, that trade agreement is ushering in a whole set of new agreements, some of them military.
Does Canada know, does Mark Carney know, that if Canada negotiates a special military relationship with China and it’s on our borders and we have NATO relations, that will endanger the alliance and it will permanently wreck the relationship between Canada and the United States?
The other thing that’s very disturbing is right now, as we speak, the European Union model is under assault, not by America, but by Europeans. They don’t believe the socialist model of open borders, illegal immigration, dismantling fossil fuels, not using fossil fuel resources, subsidized expensive green energy, de-arming, disarming, whatever term we use, low fertility, works. They used to have, about a quarter-century ago, the 470 million Europeans, they had about the same gross domestic product as the United States.
Now they’re $10 trillion at least smaller. So, why is Canada emulating the EU failed model? Forty-five percent of your population was not born in Canada or their parents weren’t born. Why are you subsidizing green energy and you’re not utilizing this rich resource in Alberta? Why are you disarmed? Why won’t you meet your 2% commitments? You may or may not have done it just one year, but why do you repeatedly not do that when you have such a vast nation and it is so exposed in a very dangerous world, in the Arctic, in the Northwest Passage, and the airspace over North America?
And the answer is your economic model does not allow you much margin. Your immigration model does not allow you much margin of error to compensate for these decisions that you’ve made for a weaker, poorer, more disunited Canada. You feel you can’t arm yourself because the United States will protect you. You feel that you need a $50 billion surplus because the United States is far wealthier and you’re in dire straits.
Next problem. You don’t express your disagreement or anger at the United States over trade policy by warming up to, and allying with China, which is the greatest trade violator in history with its patent theft, copyright theft, dumping product below the cost of production, currency manipulation, forced labor camps.
And you don’t win yourself national support when no other country except you and China have slapped counter-tariffs, not because they didn’t want to, not because they couldn’t do it, but because they realized they were running surpluses for years with the United States, and they could still make money with a more symmetrical trade agreement.
You apparently don’t think that. You think if you lose your special $50 billion surplus relationship, or you might have to rearm, the choices that you’ve made on energy and immigration and economic policy prevent you from being competitive, and you need to be thus indirectly subsidized.
But more importantly, you’re not going to win world sympathy, at least among the United States and other countries that are its allies.

Not directly. But both Putin and Trump see the advantages. Make Europe need Russian oil.

• Very Interesting – Saudi Arabia Cancels Oil Shipments to Europe (CTH)

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen reportedly hit Saudi Arabia’s east/west pipeline with drones. President Trump did not strike the Houthi’s. Despite knowing oil prices would jump, President Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon to approach the issue carefully. Reuters, citing an Axios report based on two US officials, said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump twice on Thursday and pressed for military action. Trump rejected the request, according to the report.

Why would President Trump ‘not’ strike back against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, knowing the drone attack on the Saudi pipeline would only worsen the oil issue? Well, you won’t read this anywhere else…. However, if Saudi Arabia shut down the east/west pipeline for a while (they just did), then the oil flowing to the Red Sea that ends up in Europe would be halted (it just was). Think about it. All of a sudden Europe cannot get oil from Mohammed bin Salmon. So, how does that change the dynamic of President Trump’s desired leverage toward Europe in his approach to bringing Russian oil back into the market.

I hope everyone can see the dynamic. All of a sudden that Russian oil Europe hates so much, turns into dependency leverage against EU antagonisms against solving the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This is not happening accidentally. Oil Price News – Saudi Aramco has canceled or delayed crude deliveries to European refiners after the shutdown of the kingdom’s East-West pipeline cut into one of its remaining routes around the Strait of Hormuz.
At least three European refiners have had late-September cargoes canceled or pushed as far out as November, according to market sources cited by Argus. Two more expect notices covering September supplies. The 7-million-bpd East-West pipeline has been offline since a September 10 attack. The pipeline carries crude from eastern Saudi oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz. One market source told Argus that every Saudi cargo scheduled for the final 10 days of September could be at risk.
The same source estimated that Yanbu had roughly five days of crude inventories remaining. Argus could not independently confirm that estimate, and Aramco declined to comment.mIn August, Bloomberg had reported that Aramco would supply full contractual crude volumes to at least three European refiners for September. But no Saudi crude has departed Yanbu since September 11, according to Vortexa data cited by Argus. (read more) Essentially, the Houthi “attack” on the Saudi pipeline just shut down oil going to Europe.
Europe needs oil. This is not an optional dynamic.
Russia has the oil that Europe now desperately needs. Suddenly, the geopolitical dynamic has shifted, as an outcome of the economic/energy dynamic shifting, at a very opportune time for President Trump to hold optimal leverage to get Europe to reconsider their opposition to a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

“Mark Zuckerberg macrodoses mushrooms and fights Dario Amodei in his mindspace ..”

• Zuck Torches Dario’s AI Nanny State, Wants ‘Trust Us Bro’ Instead (ZH)

After Anthropic’s Dario Amodei set off a firestorm on Saturday calling for a ‘pause’ in AI development until hand-picked arbiters are installed inside the frontier labs (a gift to Beijing), Mark Zuckerberg sided with the testosterone wing of the tech-bro complex with a builder’s response: police yourselves. You don’t need anyone’s permission – or a cartel, to do it.

Mark Zuckerberg macrodoses mushrooms and fights Dario Amodei in his mindspace (probably)
Amodei published a 3,800-word essay, “We Must Pace the Frontier” – telling the industry to slow down before its own agents got loose, and the response was a group hug: Sam Altman fell in line within hours, Elon Musk said “Dario is right,” and by Monday Congress was drafting ways to put the genie back in the bottle. Zuck’s plan is different: Frontier Justice.
According to Investor Nic Carter;
Zuck pretty handily dismantles Dario’s talking points here:
– people want models that are *aligned with them* (subtly punches back at Anthropic’s normative constitutional approach)
– labs already face liability if they screw up, so incentives to release aligned models is already baked in
– Meta delayed Muse for alignment reasons but didn’t make a whole song and dance about it
– Subtly questions Anthropic trying to kingmake METR (implies METR is an Anthropic patsy)
– Meta doesn’t need to coordinate with anyone to work on alignment, it’s just something labs should naturally do

Dario’s Plan
Amodei’s essay says the newest models have begun improving themselves and a swarm of agents could take over significant parts of the internet within six to twelve months, so the labs should slow the rate at which they add capability. The fix comes in three steps: outside inspectors, with the nonprofit METR as the model, embedded in every lab with employee-level access and the right to publish; a narrow waiver from antitrust law so the frontier labs can agree among themselves on standards and speed; and, eventually, red lines negotiated with China (mmhmm).
Before that negotiation, Dario wants Washington to keep the chip ban, crack down on distillation (training a cheap model on an expensive one’s answers), lock up model weights, and widen America’s lead over the next three to five years. The Global Times counted twelve references to China in a document about safety, and Beijing’s Foreign Ministry answered in less than two days, calling it “fearmongering.”
To some, the whole thing seemed highly choreographed. Last week an OpenAI-turned-Anthropic researcher quit in protest – saying the industry was gambling with our lives. Two of the three researchers who resigned that week went to METR, as we noted Saturday. By Tuesday the House AI safety bill’s Republican co-sponsor, Rep. Jay Obernolte of California, was telling reporters he had met OpenAI’s top lobbyist the day before the company endorsed the bill’s 3rd party evaluator provision.
Meanwhile, a New York assemblyman whose campaign was backed by an Anthropic-funded PAC had launched a $30 million push to make AI safety the Democrats’ 2028 platform, and Anthropic’s IPO was reportedly in the works. The referee is family too: METR’s reported funders are the same donors who financed Anthropic’s early rounds and hold its equity, and under the essay’s own terms the inspectors sign a contract the lab writes. David Sacks, the former White House AI czar, needed one sentence: stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. None of this proves coordination. All of it explains the salt.
.@DavidSacks says if Dario Amodei truly believes frontier AI could end humanity, he has no business running Anthropic. Make it safe, shut the lab down, or step aside. pic.twitter.com/tec7eACwdG
— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) September 14, 2026

Dario Vs. Zuck What is the danger? Amodei says capability: systems that improve themselves faster than anyone can check. Zuckerberg says concentration. The argument he made in a July Wall Street Journal essay, The AI Future Is for Everyone, is that a world where a few companies hold the most capable systems is the dangerous one: one person with a superintelligent lawyer wins unfairly, everyone with one gets a fairer system.
Who checks? Amodei wants an embedded referee with a badge. Zuckerberg wants users and courts. An agent that ignores the people it works for gets abandoned, a lab that ships harm gets sued, and a few billion users correcting a product every day is a larger alignment dataset than any written constitution. Outside evaluators, he says, are “industry best practice” that Meta Superintelligence Labs already uses; they are a tool, not a license.
Who sets the pace? Amodei wants a shared speed limit the labs agree to, with government permission to agree. Zuckerberg’s answer is that Meta already paced itself: it sat on its Muse models for months to harden them, “didn’t call for everyone else to do this before we would,” and shipped. The cleanest speed limit, he argues, is putting most of your compute into serving people rather than into racing self-improvement, a choice visible in capital spending and product cadence rather than in an inspector’s report.
What about China? Amodei wants to widen the lead first and negotiate later, arguing the restrictions raise the leverage of democracies and make a deal more likely. Zuckerberg’s position, and Beijing’s, is that the open-weight world already exists and exclusion makes it less safe, not more. “The key to building a positive future for everyone is maintaining the right balance of power.”

World War Reddit. “This claim, originally attributed to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was entirely fabricated and soon debunked. However, that didn’t stop Zelenskyy from making the claim to the American audience of CBS, yesterday. ”

• Zelenskyy Tells CBS Russia Drones Tried to Take Down His Airplane (CTH)

What would make Volodymyr Zelenskyy appear on CBS News to tell a debunked story about his airplane being targeted by Russian drones in Moldova? Answer the question honestly.

Appearing on CBS News, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Russian drones tried to attack his airplane in Moldova. This claim, originally attributed to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was entirely fabricated and soon debunked. However, that didn’t stop Zelenskyy from making the claim to the American audience of CBS, yesterday. WATCH:

The reality is the drone in question was detected inside Ukraine over 160km from where Zelenskyy was in Chisinau International Airport. Zelenskyy and/or Moldova itself was never under any threat.
“After 5:20 p.m. (local time, 4:20 p.m. Paris time), authorities confirmed that the drone had fallen and exploded about 160 km from Chisinau International Airport. Flight restrictions were then lifted and the Ukrainian president’s plane took off later than planned,” he added. A source in the Ukrainian presidency told AFP that Zelensky was at the slightest risk was “exaggerated”. {SOURCE}
In the BIG PICTURE, it is fake stories like this, false and fictitious narratives, that give us appropriate context for the latest leftist/political effort to control information via a new regulatory process under the guise of AI regulation. This latest AI panic is “digital covid.”
Frontier Labs = Wuhan Labs
Anthropic = NIH
Rogue AI = SARS-CoV-2
Regulation = Vaccination
COVID panic = Election/Control
AI panic = Election/Control
The only thing we are waiting now is patient zero, the AI ‘false flag’ (cyberattack).

Remember the air raid sirens when Biden walked across the square in Kiev?

The EU made it dirt poor.

• Greece Wants To Become Europe’s Next Hedge Fund Hub (ZH)

Athens is emerging as an unlikely contender in the competition for Europe’s hedge fund money, with Greece using favorable tax treatment, an improving economy and Mediterranean living to attract financiers looking beyond London and other established financial centers, according to Bloomberg.

That campaign has already produced some notable converts. Millennium Management has established an operation in Athens, while billionaire hedge fund manager Chris Rokos is heading to Greece after deciding to leave Britain. Greek officials are betting that attracting firms of that caliber will make it easier to persuade smaller funds and finance professionals to follow.
It is a striking development for a country that spent much of the previous decade synonymous with sovereign debt problems and economic instability. Greece has since repaired its public finances, regained investment-grade credit ratings and posted stronger economic growth than much of Europe. Its government can now borrow at lower yields than several much larger economies.
That turnaround is central to the sales pitch. “Greece is fiscally healthy, it constantly produces surpluses and, as a result, it provides tax predictability and macroeconomic stability,” said Vasilis Karatzas, an adviser to Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis.

Bloomberg writes that there is also plenty of financial incentive to make the move. Greece continues to offer qualifying wealthy newcomers a €100,000 annual flat tax on foreign income, a program that has remained unchanged since 2019. By comparison, Italy has repeatedly increased the cost of its competing program. Greece has now sweetened the deal for the investment industry specifically, allowing eligible fund managers who become Greek tax residents to pay 5% on carried interest and bonuses.
The government says it isn’t simply trying to become another European parking lot for wealthy foreigners. The larger ambition is to get investment firms to actually operate from Athens, bringing well-paid finance jobs, encouraging talented Greeks working abroad to return and creating the foundation for a domestic money-management industry.
Timing could be working in Greece’s favor. Higher taxes have made Britain less attractive to some wealthy financiers, while geopolitical instability has introduced another consideration for people who had been looking toward financial centers in the Middle East. Athens suddenly finds itself competing for people who might previously have considered London, Milan, Dubai or Abu Dhabi the obvious choices.
There are still practical obstacles. Athens will need more luxury housing, strong private schools and the broader infrastructure expected by highly paid international finance workers and their families. And a couple of prominent arrivals hardly make Greece the next Mayfair. “The country won’t become a wealth hub overnight. It will take years,” Karatzas said.
Still, Millennium and Rokos give the Greek experiment something more important than another tax incentive: validation. Once major funds demonstrate that Athens is a viable place to operate, Greece’s hope is that the next wave of managers becomes considerably easier to convince.

“.. 9/11, an inside orchestration by the American Zionist neoconservatives to produce the “new Pearl Harbor” needed for Washington’s 21st century attacks ..”

• The Road to Armageddon (Paul Craig Roberts)

The world is faced with two major war fronts, both of which are widening and could spin out of control.

Ukraine is Washington’s proxy in the West’s war against Russia, a war that has moved deep within Russia herself far from the Donbas front. Nato countries such as Germany and Great Britain are openly involved in the conflict against Russia as is the US. Germany and Great Britain make the long range drones that Ukraine uses with Washington’s targeting system to attack Russian oil production, oil refineries, and energy depots inside Russia, as well as airports, civilian housing, children’s schools, and vacationeers. The Russian president refuses to acknowledge these attacks as attacks of war and calls them “terrorist actions.” Putin pretends that the conflict is merely a “special military operation” confined to Ukraine in Donbas.
The “Special Military Operation” has continued for 4.5 years, during which two more countries have joined NATO and aligned against Russia. More NATO members have changed their policies and have announced their willingness to host Washington’s nuclear weapons on their territory on Russia’s border. NATO countries speak openly of preparing for a war against Russia in three years.
Every weapon system that Washington and NATO members said would not be sent were sent to Ukraine. Russia’s peace talks with Trump went nowhere, but Putin still believes in them. Zelensky now threatens with his German and British drones to close down Russia’s air space from commercial flights. Russia is fighting the West’s proxy–Ukraine–not Russia’s Western enemy. Ukraine is in the fight only because of the support and instigation from the West.
Obviously, Russia is in an existential conflict. There is a limit to how long Russia can deny reality, and when that limit is reached, Russia’s back is likely to be to the wall, in which case out come the Russian nukes. In the Middle East Iran is engaged not with Iran’s enemy, but with the proxy–Washington–of Iran’s enemy–Israel. So we have two wars in which the proxies, not the instigators, suffer the consequences. As this serves the instigators, as they bear no cost, the conflicts can continue until they become unmanageable.
We have before us the enormous self-delusion of Russia and Iran. Russia is fighting Ukraine, a former part of Russia, not Washington and NATO. Iran is fighting Washington, not Israel whose puppet Washington is. So we have two countries under attack, neither of which confront its actual enemy. It is a perfect scenario for matters to get out of hand.
With this point made, now ask yourself why the US is at war with Iran. We know why Washington is at war with Russia. Russia is a risen power that constrains Washington’s hegemony over the world and is, therefore, in the way of Washington’s hegemony. America’s foreign policy doctrine–the Wolfowitz Doctrine–says that it is the principle purpose of US policy to prevent the rise of any country that can serve as a constraint on Washington’s unilateralism.
Russia and China are obviously world powers, but why Washington’s hegemonic concern with Iran, which is not? The answer is that Iran is in the way of the Israeli Zionist Agenda of Greater Israel, which defines the territory of the Israeli state to be from the Nile to Pakistan.
For the entirety of the 21st century Washington has been fighting for Greater Israel. That was the purpose of 9/11, an inside orchestration by the American Zionist neoconservatives to produce the “new Pearl Harbor” needed for Washington’s 21st century attacks that have destroyed not the specified “seven countries in five years,” but three of the countries–Iraq, Libya, and Syria–in 25 years, with the current attack on Iran underway. That is a lot of fighting for Israel.
What I have presented is the truth. But no awareness or discussion of this truth results or is possible in America or Western Europe. The powerful Israel Lobby has defined all truth unfavorable to Israeli expansion to be antisemitic. Unless they are retired, no professor, no foreign policy analyst, no government official or student can survive being labeled an antisemite. The power of the Israeli’s self-justifications for wars and genocide is extraordinary. There are only 7.7 million Jews in Israel; yet they control the discussion of the violence of which they are themselves responsible.

He appointed the man?

• Trump Slams Former FBI Director Chris Wray Over Butler Investigation

The criticism comes after the FBI released new documents related to the investigation, which included revelations that shooter Thomas Crooks had been emotionless since birth and never had friends in middle or high school. President Donald Trump slammed former FBI Director Christopher Wray on Tuesday, claiming the man should pay a price for his handling of the investigation into the assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania.

The criticism comes after the FBI released new documents related to the investigation, which included revelations that shooter Thomas Crooks had been emotionless since birth and never had friends in middle or high school. “Everybody knows the Crooked Joe Biden FBI didn’t do what they should have with respect to the lunatic who shot me in Butler, PA,” Trump said on Truth Social. “By the time I got into office, on January 20th, most of the information was missing, altered, corrupted, or gone.
“New info was just found! Why wasn’t it seen long ago? This was all a Democrat plot, to get me out of the election, that failed,” he continued. “Dirty Cop Christopher Wray should pay a price for the way he handled this assassination attempt, and certainly for the things he said.” Trump appointed Wray to replace former FBI Director James Comey in 2017. Wray was eventually replaced with current FBI Director Kash Patel in the second Trump administration.
The documents are part of the Senate Judiciary Committee’s ongoing inquiry into the Trump assassination attempt on July 13, 2024, in Butler. While Trump survived the assassination attempt, an innocent bystander was killed in the shooting. The documents showed that Crooks’ actions were a surprise to his family, and his motive remains a mystery.

FBI and politics, great combo.

• FBI Agent Wanted To Criminally Investigate Elon Musk, Email Shows (ET)

An FBI agent pitched investigating Elon Musk for his work with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), according to an email released on Sept. 15. FBI agent Kevin Gounaud wrote in the Feb. 22, 2025, missive to a supervisor that he wanted to recommend opening a criminal investigation into the person or people at the Office of Personnel Management who approved transmitting an email to government workers about what they had done the previous week. That person was conspiring with Musk “to violate government-wide security policy and transmit sensitive government information outside of a strict need to know,” Gounaud said.

“Furthermore, Musk used a non-government system (Twitter) to relate information that allegedly was for official purposes,” he said. “In doing so, because he is monetized … he likely generated income for himself based on Twitter’s monetization and/or advertising revenues.” Gounaud compared Musk’s action to how former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used a private email server to conduct government business. The FBI declined to take action against Clinton, determining she lacked criminal intent.
Gounaud said Musk also likely violated a federal law that bars executive branch employees from participating in government matters that impact their own interests. “Happy to write the case opening and find a prosecutor (or at least try),” the agent told the supervisor. He added later, “And no, I’m not kidding.”
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) released the letter as senators questioned FBI Director Kash Patel during a hearing in Washington. Grassley said the email, along with other evidence from actions taken by additional agents, “undercut public statements by former FBI officials that agents don’t get to pick their cases.” [..] Patel told senators that the FBI has fired agents who were involved in certain probes, including collecting intelligence in a malfeasant manner. “And in terms of criminal investigations that sprout from that, I can only comment on what’s been public, but there are a number of ongoing investigations regarding this illegal conduct,” he said.
Gounaud is no longer with the FBI, as of February, according to his LinkedIn page. He had been with the bureau since 2004. Musk’s time as a special government employee concluded in the spring of 2025, while DOGE formally shut down in July. Musk has not been charged to date. It was not clear whether Grassley has obtained other emails involving Gounaud, including any responses the latter received to his pitch for a probe of Musk.

“AI doomers should be held accountable for their doomsday claims. It’s made up… It’s irresponsible. We ought to just keep track of all that and remind people when their claims don’t come true”—@JensenHuang NVIDIA

I agree and hold the CEOs and executives of the companies that…
— Brian Roemmele (@BrianRoemmele) September 16, 2026

Optimus will make the future much more productive

And also much more fun pic.twitter.com/xsNNrGGW88
— Optimus (@Optimus_RH) September 15, 2026

THIS ROBOT JUST LEARNED TO JUGGLE – AND IT CHANGES WHAT HUMANOIDS CAN DO!

In just 20 seconds, the humanoid robot goes from holding 2 tennis balls to tracking, catching, and throwing them while maintaining its balance. That means its cameras, motion planning, hands, and legs have… https://t.co/VtD6tvggjl pic.twitter.com/YghE1T5uIL
— Future Memo (@TheFutureMemo) September 16, 2026

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Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar

Mar 162023

March 16, 2023 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 2:51 pm Finance Tagged with: Belt & Road, BRICS, China, dollar, Iran, MBS, NSTC, Saudi Arabia, SCO 9 Responses »

Jacob Lawrence Struggle: From the History of the American People, Panel 8 1954

Andrew Korybko:

Eurasia’s geo-economic integration took a great leap forward as a result of the Iranian–Saudi rapprochement, which unlocks the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) trade potential with Russia and China. Its wealthy members can now tap into two series of Iranian-transiting megaprojects in one fell swoop through this deal, with the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) connecting them to Russia while the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor (CCAWAEC) will do the same vis-à-vis China.

The bloc’s de facto Saudi leader has been prioritizing a comprehensive economic reform policy known as “Vision 2030” that was introduced by Crown Prince and first-ever Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) upon his rise to power in 2015. It regrettably stumbled as a result of the disastrous Yemeni War that he’s been waging since that same year, but everything is now back on track and more promising than ever after securing $50 billion worth of investments from China last December.

The People’s Republic regards Vision 2030 as complementary to its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) due to MBS’ focus on real-sector investments for preemptively diversifying the Saudi economy away from its presently disproportionate dependence on oil exports. His country’s location at the crossroads of Afro-Eurasia also makes investments there extremely attractive from the perspective of China’s logistical interests, hence its massive commitment to his comprehensive economic reform policy.

Without last week’s Beijing-brokered deal, China would have had to rely on maritime routes under the control of the powerful US Navy to facilitate the forthcoming explosion in bilateral real-sector trade, but now everything can be conducted much more securely via the Iranian-transiting CCAWAEC. Looking forward, there’s also a theoretical possibility of Chinese energy investments in Iran connecting the Gulf to Central Asia and thenceforth to the People’s Republic, thus fully securing its strategic interests.

That’s still a far way’s off, if it even happens at all that is, but it nevertheless can’t be ruled out. Saudi Arabia’s desire to join BRICS and the SCO, which are the most influential multipolar organizations in the world right now, could turn this scenario into a reality a lot sooner than even the most optimistic observers might have expected. All of this in and of itself will herald a revolution in geo-economic affairs, and that’s even without Saudi Arabia having yet to throw its full support behind the “petroyuan”.

Once this major oil exporter begins to sell its resources in non-dollar-denominated currencies like China’s, then the petrodollar upon which the economic-financial aspect of the US’ unipolar hegemony is predicated will be dealt a deathblow. The global systemic transition to multipolarity and the impending trifurcation of International Relations that will precede the final inevitable form of this process would unprecedentedly accelerate once this happens, thus further hastening America’s ongoing demise.

About those aforementioned processes, they were already made irreversible by the special operation that Russia was forced to commence in defense of its national security red lines in Ukraine after NATO clandestinely crossed them there and subsequently rejected Moscow’s security guarantee requests for politically resolving their resultant security dilemma. Over the past year, the New York Times was forced to admit that not only did the sanctions fail, but even the plot to “isolate” Russia did too.

These outcomes were largely the result of Russia’s example inspiring the Global South to rise up against neo-colonialism by refusing to comply with the demands placed upon them by the US-led West’s Golden Billion to unilaterally sacrifice their own interests simply to serve that de facto New Cold War bloc’s. India played the leading role in this respect due to its status as the world’s largest developing country, which gave comparatively medium- and smaller-sized ones the confidence to follow in its footsteps.

That globally significant Great Power, which sits on the South Asian end of the NSTC that transits through Iran en route to Russia, also scaled up its purchases of discounted oil from Moscow to the point where its decades-long strategic partner is nowadays its largest supplier. Of crucial significance to the present analysis, a growing number of its deals are in non-dollar-denominated currencies, which sped up de-dollarization processes to such an extent that even Reuters felt compelled to write about this.

Considering this newfound financial context, there’s no doubt that upcoming Saudi moves in support of the petroyuan that are taken in coordination with Iran and Russia would catalyze the next natural phase of de-dollarization. Russian-GCC real-sector trade that’ll be carried out via Iran across the NSTC will be conducted in national currencies and thus prepare those three for the moment when they finally decide to deal a deathblow to the petrodollar.

All in all, it’s not hyperbole to declare that the dollar’s prior dominance is done for as a result of the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement. That Beijing-brokered deal makes this outcome an inevitability unless some subversive black swan event takes place such as a US-backed coup against MBS, though that’s unlikely to happen after he successfully consolidated his power in late 2017. With this in mind, it can confidently be declared that that last week’s development will be seen in hindsight as a game-changer.

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Debt Rattle January 31 2023

Jan 312023

January 31, 2023 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:56 am Finance Tagged with: Antarctica, biolabs, Crimea, Croatia, Erdogan, EU, redemption, right whale, Russiagate, Saudi Arabia, Veritas 78 Responses »

John M. Fox WCBS studios, 49 East 52nd Street, NYC 1948

• The War Against Us (Jim Kunstler)

• Ukraine Will Never Retake Crimea – Croatian President (RT)

• Is NATO Helping Ukraine Fight Russia Or Using Ukraine To Fight Russia? (Diesen)

• Ukrainian PM States Timeline For EU Membership Hopes (RT)

• Beijing Explains US Role In Ukraine Conflict (RT)

• US Skeptical Of UK Military – Sky News (RT)

• Erdogan Questions Macron’s Competence (RT)

• Russian Company Offers $70,000 Reward For Destroying NATO Tanks (RT)

• If You’re Expecting Redemption… (Denninger)

• Why Hasn’t Antarctica Warmed for Over 70 Years Despite Rise in CO2? (DS)

• Why Environmentalists May Make This Whale Species Extinct (Public)

• Growing Number of Doctors Say They Won’t Get COVID-19 Booster Shots (ET)

• Putin Talks Cooperation With Saudi Arabia (RT)

• Moscow Provides More Evidence Of US Biolabs In Ukraine (RT)

• Does the “Word of a Biden” Extend to the Biden Documents? (Turley)

• Elon Musk Mocks Left-wing Think Tank Over Russiagate Claims (RT)

• The Press Versus The President, Part One (CJR)

Tucker Pfizer

Bizarre: Pfizer's response to undercover video pic.twitter.com/S1R87IngMw

— Wittgenstein (@backtolife_2023) January 31, 2023

Fourth Reich
https://twitter.com/i/status/1619821761239085057

Joe Rogan cobalt

The reality of Cobalt mining for rechargeable batteries is horrifying.

Clean sustainable energy is another narrative & lie they want you to believe.

They don't care about child labor & human rights if they can profit from it.

Listen to Siddharth Kara with Rogan here. pic.twitter.com/358XmQwN8S

— New World Odor™ (@hugh_mankind) January 29, 2023

Rogan diver
https://twitter.com/i/status/1619856341904035840

Trump Star Wars
https://twitter.com/i/status/1620248325546209280

“..who can tell whether accountability might restore our institutions at this point. We may be too far gone.”

• The War Against Us (Jim Kunstler)

All this criminal misconduct is connected in a foul matrix of lawbreaking. The fact-patterns are well-established. Dozens of excellent books have catalogued the misdeed of RussiaGate and scores of websites daily dissect the shady intrigues around the “vaccine” crusade. The infamies of gross election interference have been systematically laid-out in the Twitter Files of the past two months. Many books, published essays, and videos substantiate the reality of massive ballot fraud in 2020 and 2022, including the felonious role of Mark Zuckerberg’s front org, the Center for Tech and Civic Life, and the election law manipulations or Lawfare goblin Marc Elias. There’s an understandable wish that upcoming hearings in Congress will lead to a reckoning for all of this. To banish consequence from public life, as we have done, is a pretty grave insult to nature, but who can tell whether accountability might restore our institutions at this point. We may be too far gone.

The US is visibly collapsing now: our economy, our financial arrangements, our culture, our influence in world affairs, and our basic consensus about reality. We’re entering a phase of disorder and hardship that is likely to moot the further depredations of a government at war with its people. For one thing, it’s becoming impossible to pretend that this vicious leviathan has the money to carry on because the money is only pretending to be money. It’s no wonder that the collective ability for sense-making has failed. It will be quickly restored by each of us in the scramble to survive these disorders and hardships. The bewildering hypotheticals of recent years begin to dissolve like mist on the mountain and things come back into focus: your health, your daily bread, your shelter, your associations with other people close to you, your values, and most of all the power of your own choices. Nature, much insulted and maligned, will sort out the rest.

Why are the voices of reason always the smaller, less powerful EU nations?

• Ukraine Will Never Retake Crimea – Croatian President (RT)

Increasingly lethal military aid to Ukraine from NATO powers is “deeply immoral” and will only extend Kiev’s bloody conflict with Russia, causing more casualties and heightening the risk of nuclear war in a pointless pursuit of absurd goals, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic has claimed. “I am against sending any lethal weapons there,” Milanovic told reporters at a briefing in Petrinja, south of Zagreb. “It’s only prolonging the war. What’s the goal? Carving up Russia? Regime change? They’re talking about partitioning Russia. This is madness.” Milanovic made his comments after the governments of Germany and the US last week announced that they had decided to send battle tanks to Ukraine.

Moscow has warned that such aid creates a greater risk of escalation, especially if Western weapons are used to strike Russian cities or try to seize Russian territory. Nevertheless, Washington and its top NATO allies have pledged to continue arming Ukraine for as long as it takes to win the conflict – however Kiev defines victory. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has vowed to retake all lost territories, including Crimea, which became part of Russia following the overthrow of Kiev’s elected government in 2014. Milanovic argued that Crimea “will never be Ukraine” – a point on which even Germany’s generals agree. “This is deeply immoral, what we’re doing, the collective West,” the Croatian president said. “German tanks will just unite the Russians, and China. My goal is to distance ourselves [Croatia] from it, to not be circus dogs. Any kind of participation in this is deadly dangerous.”

Milanovic said efforts to provoke conflict with Russia had been ongoing since 2014, “and a war broke out.” He warned that NATO leaders shouldn’t assume that they can treat Russia like Serbia, which the Western bloc bombed in 1999 amid violence in Kosovo. The breakaway province later declared its independence from Serbia. “Please understand Russia is not the same as Serbia,” Milanovic said. “That’s a painful fact, and dangerous. We annexed Kosovo, us and the international community. It was taken from Serbia. Did we not do it? Did we not recognize Kosovo? Oh it’s not an annexation, it’s a seizure? Whatever. This isn’t about Kosovo, but about the concept.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1620116326101712896

The Western public, like others, are justly appalled by the human suffering and the horrors of the Ukrainian war. Empathy is one of the great virtues of humanity, which in this instance translates into the demand for helping Ukrainians. Yet, propaganda commonly weaponizes the best in human nature, such as compassion, to bring out the worst. As sympathy and the desire to assist the displaced are used to mobilize public support for confrontation and war with Russia, it is necessary to ask if the Western public and Ukrainians are being manipulated to support a proxy war. The US-led military bloc commonly depicts itself as an innocent third party that merely responds to the overwhelming desire of the Ukrainian people to join its ranks.

Yet, for years NATO has attempted to absorb a reluctant Ukraine into its orbit. A NATO publication from 2011 acknowledged that “The greatest challenge for Ukrainian-NATO relations lies in the perception of NATO among the Ukrainian people. NATO membership is not widely supported in the country, with some polls suggesting that popular support for it at is less than 20%”. In 2014, this problem was resolved by supporting what Statfor’s George Friedman labelled “the most blatant coup in history” as there were no efforts to conceal Western meddling. Regime change was justified as helping Ukrainians with their “democratic revolution”. Yet, it involved the unconstitutional removal of the elected government as a result of an uprising that even the BBC acknowledged did not have majority support amongst the general public.

The authorities elected by the Ukrainian people were replaced by individuals handpicked by Washington. An infamous leaked phone call between State Department apparatchik Victoria Nuland and Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt revealed that Washington had chosen exactly who would be in the new government several weeks before they had even removed president Yanukovich from power. Donbass predictably rejected and resisted the legitimacy of the new regime in Kiev with the support of Russia. Instead of calling for a “unity government”, a plan for which Western European states had signed as guarantors, NATO countries quietly supported an “anti-terrorist operation” against eastern Ukrainians, resulting in at least 14,000 deaths. The Minsk-2 peace agreement of February 2015 produced a path for peace, yet the US and UK sabotaged it for the next 7 years.

Furthermore, Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Francois Hollande recently admitted that both Germany and France considered the deal an opportunity to buy time for Ukraine to arm itself and prepare for war. In the 2019 election, millions of Ukrainians were disenfranchised, including those living in Russia. Nevertheless, the result was a landslide with 73% of Ukrainians voting for Vladimir Zelensky’s peace platform based on implementing the Minsk-2 agreement, negotiating with Donbass, protecting the Russian language, and restoring peace with Moscow. However, the far-right militias that were armed and trained by the US effectively laid down a veto by threatening Zelensky and defying him on the front line when he demanded to pull back heavy weapons.

Pressured also by the US, Zelensky eventually reversed the entire peace platform the Ukrainians had voted for. Instead, opposition media and political parties were purged, and the main opposition leader, Viktor Medvedchuk was arrested. Subverting the wishes of Ukrainians in order to steer the country towards confrontation with Russia was yet again referred to as “helping” Ukraine. [..] Following NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s recent Orwellian statement that “weapons are the way to peace”, it is worth assessing if NATO is helping Ukraine or using Ukraine. NATO powers have stated that they are supplying Ukraine with weapons to have a stronger position at the negotiating table, yet one year into the war, no major Western leaders have called for peace talks. NATO has a powerful bargaining chip that would actually help Ukraine, which would be an agreement to end NATO expansion toward Russian borders. However, whitewashing the bloc’s direct contribution to the war prevents a negotiated settlement.

US munitions

RT reporter reviews stocks of U.S. munitions abandoned by retreating #Ukrainian troops. pic.twitter.com/BBaN7o0oeY

— tim anderson (@timand2037) January 30, 2023

The EU will not survive this.

• Ukrainian PM States Timeline For EU Membership Hopes (RT)

Ukraine sees itself as part of the EU in two years, but even its most ardent supporters in the bloc believe that target to be overambitious, Politico reported on Monday. The deadline was set by Prime Minister Denis Shmigal ahead of an EU-Ukraine meeting in Kiev next Friday. “We expect that this year, in 2023, we can already have this pre-entry stage of negotiations,” Shmigal told the news outlet. Ukraine applied for EU candidate status last February, after Russia launched its military operation. Brussels granted Kiev that status in June, though the timing for accession remains a matter of debate. Kiev and its biggest backers, such as Poland, claim Ukraine deserves to be fast-tracked to full membership. More skeptical nations have argued that it may take considerable time before the country meets the criteria.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned in May that the accession process “would probably take several decades,” unless the EU lowers its requirements “and also partially the principles that we hold.” Türkiye has been kept waiting on the EU’s doorstep since 1999, while Ankara’s request to join the European Economic Community, the EU’s predecessor, was filed in 1987. European Council President Charles Michel, who traveled to Kiev earlier this month to offer reassurances that Ukraine will eventually become part of the EU, indicated that the bloc’s leadership has no intention of bending the rules. “If it means changing the rules and procedures, no, because we believe in and defend the rule of law,” Michel said in an interview last week when discussing what fast-tracking Ukraine could mean.

Politico described Shmigal’s deadline as “throwing down a gauntlet to the EU establishment.” The head of the Ukrainian cabinet said he expects progress in specific areas, including the continued suspension of tariffs and quotas for Ukrainian goods, and inclusion into the EU’s mobile roaming area. Kiev could take certain steps to allay any criticism from the EU, such as rolling back controversial legislation which regulates how justices of the Constitutional Court are appointed, according to Politico. The reform was passed in December, with Kiev ignoring recommendations from the Venice Commission to modify the draft to prevent political influence on a special body tasked with screening candidates. President Vladimir Zelensky has been at loggerheads with the Constitutional Court since 2020, when he launched a campaign to remove the chief justice after the court struck down a bill that the presidential office wanted passed into law.

“..the stage for the conflict was set by NATO’s expansion in Europe and its refusal to acknowledge Russia’s security concerns.”

• Beijing Explains US Role In Ukraine Conflict (RT)

The US is the “initiator and biggest promoter” of the crisis in Ukraine, Beijing has said, commenting on Washington’s reported claims that state-run Chinese companies were providing non-lethal aid to Russia. If the US government actually wants to help the Ukrainian people and see the crisis end as soon as possible, it should “stop sending weapons and reaping the benefits of war,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Monday during a news briefing. She dismissed the claims of assistance to Moscow, which were reported in the Western media last week, as “unfounded suspicion and accusations” and said Beijing would not accept “groundless blackmail” or discrimination against Chinese companies by Washington.

The reports were based on an anonymous source described by Reuters as “familiar with the situation.” “What we’re seeing is non-lethal military assistance and economic support that stops short of wholesale sanctions evasion,” the source was quoted as saying. The person added that Washington was not sure if the Chinese government was aware of the “activity” and that it had communicated its concerns to Beijing. The US government publicly threatened China with consequences for any assistance to Russia in circumvention of the economic sanctions imposed by Washington and its allies.

When asked about the alleged assistance last Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the US was “monitoring the situation” and would “continue to communicate to China the implications of providing material support” to Russia. She pledged that the US would support Ukraine for “as long as needed.” The US has already allocated over $100 billion related to propping up Kiev in its fight against Moscow. Beijing has criticized Russia for sending troops against its neighbor but has said that the stage for the conflict was set by NATO’s expansion in Europe and its refusal to acknowledge Russia’s security concerns.

“..leaving the British army with hardware that is at least 30 years old and in dire need of replacement.”

• US Skeptical Of UK Military – Sky News (RT)

A senior US military official confidentially told British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace that the UK’s armed forces are no longer on par with those of the leading world powers, Sky News claims. The broadcaster, citing anonymous defense sources, said that years of cost-cutting measures by successive governments have made the country’s military a “hollow force.” The report, which came out on Monday, alleges that the unnamed American general had a frank conversation with Wallace and several other British officials last fall. The conclusion of the US general regarding the UK’s fighting capabilities was unsettling for London: “You haven’t got a tier one. It’s barely tier two.” According to Sky News, the general classed the armed forces of the US, China, Russia, and France as tier-one powers, with Germany and Italy representing tier-two armies.

Several unnamed British defense sources confirmed to the broadcaster that the nation’s military is currently in a sorry state. One official was quoted as saying: “It’s an entire service unable to protect the UK and our allies for a decade.” The UK military would reportedly run out of ammunition “in a few days” if a conflict broke out. Moreover, the armed forces would likely be unable to defend the skies against the level of missile and drone strikes currently seen in Ukraine, the broadcaster claimed. The report said that 10 Downing Street has repeatedly cut the defense budget following the end of the Cold War, leaving the British army with hardware that is at least 30 years old and in dire need of replacement.

London’s active role in supplying Ukraine with weapons over the past 11 months has further diluted its own fighting capabilities, the news outlet said. Another major issue highlighted by anonymous defense sources is chronic staffing shortages. With only 76,000 personnel, the British armed forces are less than half the size they were in 1990, Sky News claims. However, according to the government’s plans, the military will shed 3,000 more troops down the road, while new weaponry is not expected to be procured for a few years, the report notes.

Erdogan plays the muslim card. For domestic purposes.

• Erdogan Questions Macron’s Competence (RT)

Emmanuel Macron is unfit to be French president and has overseen a significant deterioration in relations with Africa, his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan has suggested. Erdogan claimed that with Macron at the helm, Paris is losing influence globally. Speaking at a youth gathering in Bilecik province in western Türkiye on Sunday, Erdogan said that “the person at the head of France does not have the experience to be at the head of that state.” The Turkish leader pointed to recent developments in Paris’ relations with African nations to support his case. “Look, they are exploiting African countries right now. Mali is in a complete break with France right now,” Erdogan argued. The Turkish president also noted that Burkina Faso has given French troops one month to leave the country.

Earlier in January, the West African nation suspended a 2018 agreement on the deployment of French service members on its territory. Relations between Paris and its former colony have been on a downward spiral, with the local population blaming France for its perceived inability to combat Islamic extremists. “And I think that Togo, they will send [the troops out] too,” Erdogan added. According to the Turkish leader, France “is rapidly losing its reputation” in Africa. “We have had many meetings with them, at international meetings and so on, but they are not honest,” Erdogan claimed. Macron has also “lost his credibility in parliament,” the Turkish president stated. “France is constantly losing credibility, and it is losing credibility in the international community.”

“Of course, there are many leaders like this in the world,” Erdogan continued, without elaborating. Unfortunately, “in the relations with Greece in the Mediterranean, they ignore Türkiye and enter into different relations with them.” Macron and Erdogan have frequently engaged in verbal clashes. One of the most notorious incidents took place in 2020, when the Turkish president suggested that his French counterpart “needs mental treatment” while criticizing Macron’s attitude toward Islam and Muslims. At the time, Macron said that radical Muslims in France were guilty of “Islamist separatism.” In response to Erdogan’s comments, Paris recalled its ambassador to Türkiye for consultations.

“Politico reported last week that it could take “many months, or potentially years” before they roll onto the battlefield.”

• Russian Company Offers $70,000 Reward For Destroying NATO Tanks (RT)

Fores, a Russian chemical manufacturer, is offering bounties to soldiers for destroying M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks in Ukraine. The news comes after Washington and Berlin approved the deliveries to Kiev last week. “Russian servicemen that destroy or capture a German Leopard 2 battle tank or an American Abrams will receive a monetary reward,” the company said in a statement on its website on Friday. “Fores will pay 5 million rubles [$70,700] for the first trophy. The payment for every next one … will be 500,000 rubles [$7,070].” The company added that if Ukraine ever acquires F-15 and F-16 jet fighters, Fores would hand out a 15-million-ruble ($212,100) prize for the first downed aircraft.

“The decision to transfer Western tanks to Kiev shows that NATO is not only delivering defensive weapons to Ukraine, which highlights the need for consolidation and support for our army. We have been doing this since the first days of [Russia’s] special military operation and will continue to support our servicemen”. Founded in 2000, Fores makes and sells proppant, a grainy substance used by oil and gas companies for fracking, according to its website. The company’s office is in Ekaterinburg, Russia. On Sunday, Russian actor Ivan Okhlobystin, who is known for having hawkish views, announced a similar bounty on his blog. “Certain members of the big business community have authorized me to inform you that they are setting a 10-million-ruble ($143,900) prize for every destroyed Abrams,” he wrote.

Berlin said last week that it would supply Kiev with 14 Leopard 2s and has greenlighted deliveries of the German-made tanks from other European countries. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany and its partners were looking to supply 112 tanks in total. Meanwhile, the 31 Abrams tanks pledged by the US must be assembled first. Politico reported last week that it could take “many months, or potentially years” before they roll onto the battlefield. Russia has maintained that foreign weapons would lead to escalation, but will not change the course of the conflict. The Kremlin says that Western tanks in Ukraine will be treated as legitimate targets.

“The mechanism that led Congress and the White House to believe they could get away with this – trade sequestration – is gone. We destroyed it with the Russian sanctions..”

• If You’re Expecting Redemption… (Denninger)

… from The Fed, or from Biden, you’re certifiable. The Fed meeting is coming. PPI and CPI have relaxed somewhat, but the key is — somewhat. Problem: The Omnibus spending isn’t in the system yet, and thus its impact isn’t in there either. But it will be because there’s no effective means to stop it other than a refusal to raise the debt ceiling. Biden has said he will veto any attempt to roll back the spending bill, and there’s no chance of an override given Congressional makeup. Therefore, what’s done is done. But – and this is important – Biden also, in the last couple of days, has reiterated that he intends to “strengthen” Medicare and has said nothing, of course, about using the 100 year old laws that make virtually all of the pricing systems in the medical area of our economy felonious. The issue is that without fixing that specific area — CMS in the Federal Budget, which is Medicare and Medicaid — the government cannot resolve the spiral of deficits and inflation.

Let me be absolutely clear in that Social Security, while it has a cash-flow funding deficit, is fixable without a large and nasty set of changes. For example increasing the OASDI tax rate (the Social Security portion of FICA) from 12.4% (today) to 14%, still split as it is today, would increase the rate you “see” in your check by 0.8% and account for more than half of the cash-flow deficit. Partially lifting the cap to, for example, $250,000 (from the 2023 $160,200) and indexing it to wage increases rather than CPI or other indications of inflation would likely close the gap entirely — and permanently. Indeed within the next 15-20 years the “hump” of boomers retiring and ultimately dying will crest and with it the draw on the retirement side of that fund.

(As an aside let me point out that Social Security’s retirement fund is already wildly progressive. That is, you get much more back for each dollar you put in as a lower-income earner than a higher-income earner, so the often-repeated screeching about denying wealthier people funds from it is fundamentally stupid. You want people to earn a lot of money and pay into the fund because they get less back than the less-well-paid do already; anything you do that disincentivizes that higher earning person from earning that higher wage and thus contributing more on a per-paid-out dollar basis will do even more damage to the fund’s stability.) Medicare’s portion of the FICA tax, however, cannot be fixed. CMS, which is the department that funds Medicare and the federal portion of Medicaid, took in about $339 billion dollars last fiscal year but spent $2,067 billion — over two trillion dollars and thus only one dollar in six or 16% of its spending is funded by tax receipts. This cannot be fixed with tax increases as you’d have to multiply the tax rate by six in order to do so. The only way to fix this is to destroy every single medical monopolist and thus collapse costs.

This has been going on for the last three decades and I’ve been raising Hell about it since my time running MCSNet because what it was going to do was obvious if it was not stopped. It has not only not been stopped it has accelerated; about ten years ago that funding percentage was about 20% and today is is 16% — materially worse. The mechanism that led Congress and the White House to believe they could get away with this – trade sequestration – is gone. We destroyed it with the Russian sanctions; it was not imposed on us, so that was a choice and we made it. I doubt anyone in the Executive considered this, but that’s irrelevant now because what’s done is done.

The whole discussion needs to restart. No such thing as settled science.

• Why Hasn’t Antarctica Warmed for Over 70 Years Despite Rise in CO2? (DS)

Scientists are scrambling to explain why the continent of Antarctica has shown Net Zero warming for the last seven decades and almost certainly much longer. The lack of warming over a significant portion of the Earth undermines the unproven hypothesis that the carbon dioxide humans add to the atmosphere is the main determinant of global climate. Under ‘settled’ science requirements, the significant debate over the inconvenient Antarctica data is of necessity being conducted well away from prying eyes in the mainstream media. Promoting the Net Zero political agenda, the Guardian recently topped up readers’ alarm levels with the notion that “unimaginable amounts of water will flow into oceans”, if temperatures in the region rise and ice buffers vanish.

The BBC green activist-in-chief Justin Rowlatt flew over parts of the region and witnessed “an epic vision of shattered ice”. He described Antarctica as the “frontline of climate change”. In 2021, the South Pole had its coldest six-month winter since records began in 1957, a fact largely ignored in the mainstream. One-off bad weather promoter Reuters subsequently ‘fact checked’ commentary on the event in social media. It noted that a “six-month period is not long enough to validate a climate trend”.

A recent paper from two climate scientists (Singh and Polvani) accepts that Antarctica has not warmed in the last seven decades, despite an increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gases. It is noted that the two polar regions present a “conundrum” for understanding present day climate change, as recent warming differs markedly between the Arctic and Antarctic. The graph below shows average Antarctica surface temperatures from 1984-2014, compared to a base period 1950-1980.

The scientists note that over the last seven decades, the Antarctica sea ice area has “modestly expanded” and warming has been “nearly non-existent” over much of the ice sheet. NASA estimates current Antarctica ice loss at 147 gigatons a year, but with 26,500,000 gigatons still to go, this works out at annual loss of 0.0005%. At current NASA ice loss melt, it will all be gone in about 200,000 years, although the Earth may well have gone through another ice age, or two, before then. Most alarmist commentary centres around the cyclical loss of sea ice around the coast and some warming on parts of the west of the continent. But sea ice cover is running at levels seen around 50 years ago, as the graph below shows. Small rises and falls in the early 2010s have been followed by a reversion to the mean.

Climate denier

There is no climate crisis: Tom Harris
Source: Fox News (Youtube) pic.twitter.com/ZKpOcsRNFQ

— Wittgenstein (@backtolife_2023) January 30, 2023

“Their average life expectancy has declined from a century to 45 years..”

• Why Environmentalists May Make This Whale Species Extinct (Public)

Since the passage of the 1973 Endangered Species Act, environmentalists have fought for strict protections for endangered species. They have demanded that the government apply what is known as the “precautionary principle,” which states that if there is any risk that a human activity will make a species extinct, it should be illegal. And yet here we are, on the 50th anniversary of the Endangered Species Act, watching the whole of the environmental movement — from the Audubon Society and the National Wildlife Federation to scientific groups like the Woods Hole Institute, New England Aquarium, and Mystic Aquarium — betray the precautionary principle by risking the extinction of the North Atlantic right whale.

The cause of this environmental betrayal is massive industrial wind energy projects off the East Coast of the U.S. The wind turbine blades are the length of a football field. Sitting atop giant poles they will reach three times higher than the Statue of Liberty. The towers will be directly inside critical ocean habitat for the North Atlantic right whale. There are only 340 of the whales left, down from 348 just one year earlier. So many North Atlantic right whales are killed by man-made factors that there have been no documented cases of any of them dying of natural causes in decades. Their average life expectancy has declined from a century to 45 years. A single additional unnatural and unnecessary death could risk the loss of the entire species.

Surveying for, building, and operating industrial wind projects could harm or kill whales, according to the U.S. government’s own science. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has given the wind industry 11 “incidental harassment authorizations,” or permits to harass hundreds of whales, including 169 critically endangered right whales. The industry will bring more ships into the areas that could strike and kill whales. Submarine noise pollution from the wind farm’s construction and operation, and entanglements in equipment, also add to the risk. So too could air turbulence generated by the turbines harm or destroy zooplakton feeding grounds. And, now, wind developers are demanding higher speed limits for their boats. If they don’t get them, the industry claims, it will need to build hotels for the workers at the sites, right in the middle of right whale habitat.

Defenders of the wind projects say they can reduce and mitigate the noise and ship traffic from the wind farm construction, but a senior scientist with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) contradicted that claim last spring when he wrote in a letter that “oceanographic impacts from installed and operating [wind] turbines cannot be mitigated for the 30-year lifespan of the project unless they are decommissioned.” Scientists representing many of the same environmental groups supporting the industrial wind energy projects wrote in a 2021 letter that “the North Atlantic right whale population cannot withstand any additional stressors; any potential interruption of foraging behavior may lead to population-level effects and is of critical concern.” Industrial wind projects “could have population-level effects on an already endangered and stressed species,” concluded the NOAA scientist, Sean Hayes. What are “population-level effects?” In a word: extinction.

Just stop it.

• Growing Number of Doctors Say They Won’t Get COVID-19 Booster Shots (ET)

A growing number of doctors say that they will not get COVID-19 vaccine boosters, citing a lack of clinical trial evidence. “I have taken my last COVID vaccine without RCT level evidence it will reduce my risk of severe disease,” Dr. Todd Lee, an infectious disease expert at McGill University, wrote on Twitter. Lee was pointing to the lack of randomized clinical trial (RCT) results for the updated boosters, which were cleared in the United States and Canada in the fall of 2022 primarily based on data from experiments with mice. Lee, who has received three vaccine doses, noted that he was infected with the Omicron virus variant—the vaccines provide little protection against infection—and described himself as a healthy male in his 40s.

Dr. Vinay Prasad, a professor of epidemiology and biostatics at the University of California, San Francisco, also said he wouldn’t take any additional shots until clinical trial data become available. “I took at least 1 dose against my will. It was unethical and scientifically bankrupt,” he said. Allison Krug, an epidemiologist who co-authored a study that found teenage boys were more likely to suffer heart inflammation after COVID-19 vaccination than COVID-19 infection, recounted explaining to her doctor why she was refusing a booster and said her doctor agreed with her position. She called on people to “join the movement to demand appropriate evidence,” pointing to a blog post from Prasad. “Pay close attention to note this isn’t anti-vaccine sentiment. This is ‘provide [hard] evidence of benefit to justify ongoing use’ which is very different. It is only fair for a 30 billion dollar a year product given to hundreds of millions,” Lee said.

Dr. Mark Silverberg, who founded the Toronto Immune and Digestive Health Institute; Kevin Bass, a medical student; and Dr. Tracy Høeg, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco, joined Lee and Prasad in stating their opposition to more boosters, at least for now. Høeg said she did not need clinical trials to know she’s not getting any boosters after receiving a two-dose primary series, adding that she took the second dose “against my will.” “I also had an adverse reaction to dose 1 moderna and, if I could do it again, I would not have had any covid vaccines,” she said on Twitter. “I was glad my parents in their 70s could get covid vaccinated but have yet to see non-confounded data to advise them about the bivalent booster. I would have liked to see an RCT for the bivalent for people their age and for adults with health conditions that put them at risk.”

Welcome to the BRICS+.

• Putin Talks Cooperation With Saudi Arabia (RT)

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have discussed bilateral cooperation and measures to stabilize the global oil market in a phone call, the Kremlin stated on Monday. “Issues of further development of bilateral cooperation in the political, trade, economic and energy fields” were discussed, according to the Kremlin. Furthermore, the two leaders spoke of “cooperation within the framework of OPEC Plus to ensure the stability of the world oil market.” Putin and Prince Mohammed have spoken several times since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine last February, with these calls taking place amid a growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the US, the Kingdom’s closest international partner.

Over the last year, Riyadh has deepened its ties with Beijing and declared its readiness to trade oil for Chinese yuan, a move that would threaten the US dollar’s standing as the world’s dominant petrocurrency. As the de-facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia further snubbed the US last July when it refused to increase oil production following a meeting between Prince Mohammed and US President Joe Biden. An increase would have simultaneously benefited Biden by lowering gas prices in the US ahead of November’s midterm elections, and weakened the Russian economy by reducing its oil revenue. Instead, OPEC and its allies (a group of nations including Russia that make up the ‘Plus’ in the organization’s title) agreed in October to cut production by two million barrels per day, a move that kept prices steady for the benefit of producers.

With Moscow and Riyadh both interested in maintaining their petroleum profits, the US-backed price cap on Russian oil is viewed in both capitals as a potential threat to revenue. Furthermore, OPEC’s members worry that the measure could become “a global price cap” in the future, potentially ruining their economies. Washington responded to Saudi Arabia’s refusal to boost production by threatening to re-evaluate its relationship with Riyadh “in a very deliberate fashion.” Democratic lawmakers pressed Biden to halt arms sales to the Kingdom unless it would reverse OPEC’s production cut, accusing the Saudis of “colluding” with Russia.

“The evidence “confirms the focus of the Pentagon on creating biological weapons components and testing them on the population of Ukraine and other states along [Russia’s] borders..”

• Moscow Provides More Evidence Of US Biolabs In Ukraine (RT)

Russia’s Defense Ministry on Monday laid out more evidence that US-funded laboratories were working in Ukraine. Documents and materials recovered by Russian troops showed that Western pharmaceutical companies operating in territory under Kiev’s control conducted HIV/AIDS research on Ukrainian military personnel. The commander of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Defense Forces, Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov, presented Ukrainian-language documents referring to HIV infection studies that began in 2019. The list of targeted groups shows service members alongside prisoners, drug addicts and other “patients at high risk of infection.” According to Kirillov, the Russian military has recovered more than 20,000 documents and other materials related to the biological programs in Ukraine, while interviewing eyewitnesses and participants.

The evidence “confirms the focus of the Pentagon on creating biological weapons components and testing them on the population of Ukraine and other states along [Russia’s] borders,” the general told reporters. Based on documents originating with the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), the Russian military identified eight more individuals involved in the US-funded research in Ukraine. Among the names Kirillov singled out was Karen Saylors of Labyrinth Global Health, previously of Metabiota, a company linked to US President Joe Biden’s son Hunter. The latest trove of documents, belonging to the company Pharmbiotest, was unearthed in Lisichansk in the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) early in January, Kirillov noted.

“Clinical samples and patient records with their personal data were buried, and not cremated or destroyed in a proper fashion. This suggests that the destruction of this evidence was carried out in extreme haste,” the lieutenant general said. In October 2022, Russia filed an official complaint over alleged US-backed biological activities in Ukraine and requested a UN probe into the matter. The UN Security Council rejected Moscow’s proposal after the US, UK, and France voted against it. The US opposition “once again confirms that Washington has something to hide, and that ensuring the transparency of biological research is contrary to US interests,” Kirillov said.

As evidence of the widespread threat posed by the Pentagon’s biological research conducted beyond America’s borders, Kirillov referred to the previously mentioned US involvement in coronavirus studies, including by funding the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance that contracted with the laboratory in Wuhan, China. Kirillov also brought up the 1977 outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt, near a biological laboratory run by the US Navy. The disease previously known only south of the Sahara made a surprise appearance in Cairo a few months after the lab employees were vaccinated against it, the general said. Moreover, the Cairo strain was “highly pathogenic” compared to the disease’s normal flu-like symptoms, suggesting the involvement of gain-of-function experiments.

“..the status of the University of Delaware documents is becoming more and more untenable for the White House..”

• Does the “Word of a Biden” Extend to the Biden Documents? (Turley)

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has repeatedly assured the public that President Biden is committed in the classified-document scandal to move forward in “a very transparent way.” Putting aside the refusal to share any information beyond a desire to be fully transparent, Biden has one major test awaiting him on his pledge: his senatorial records. There has been much discussion of a classified document being found in his personal library in Wilmington, but there is a huge library of Biden documents sitting in the University of Delaware. The university is sitting on Biden documents due to a cynical 2012 arrangement made by Biden when he was vice president and contemplating a run for the presidency. The president effectively locked away his records by giving them to the university, which has claimed for a decade that it is still working to organize and catalog the documents.

He has refused to allow the public or the press to see the documents. With the recent reports that Biden may have included classified information in notebooks found at his residence, the status of the University of Delaware documents is becoming more and more untenable for the White House. The University of Delaware has been used for years to shield potentially embarrassing documents from public review for the Biden family, including allegations that the president engaged in sexual harassment or assault as a member of the Senate. The university effectively agreed to serve as a type of lock box for the Bidens to prevent a review of his senatorial records as he ran for higher office.At great public cost, the university has fought efforts by the media and the public to allow access to the documents. It is a troubling position for any institution of higher education to fight access to historical materials . . . for years.

Now, however, there is growing concern that the files may not only include incriminating information on past sexual-assault allegations but actual classified information. There is already confirmation that Biden removed classified information from the Senate more than 14 years ago. It now appears he also may have transferred classified information from briefings and documents to his notebooks. That raises the question of whether such information is contained in the notebooks and papers housed at the university. If President Biden is ready to embrace transparency, he can start by finally dropping his opposition to any review of his senatorial documents. At a minimum, the FBI should request access to determine if his violation of classified rules extends to this mountain of material given to the university.

“This is the biggest journalism scam in a very long time,” replied Musk..”

• Elon Musk Mocks Left-wing Think Tank Over Russiagate Claims (RT)

Elon Musk has hit out at the Alliance for Security Democracy (ASD) and its so-called “Russian bot dashboard” Hamilton68 for labeling Twitter accounts that it disagreed with as assets supposedly linked to the Kremlin. The billionaire illustrated his point with a mockup of a children’s book on justifying political failures in the media and government, titled ‘Everyone I don’t agree with is a Russian Bot’. His response comes after internal Twitter messages published by journalist Matt Taibbi on Friday revealed that the Hamilton68 dashboard knowingly mislabeled the accounts of real Americans as “Russian Bots.” The creators of the tool at one point claimed to be tracking over 600 accounts with alleged ties to the Kremlin to provide the West with an authentic view on Russian “influence operations.”

Hamilton68 was later used as a source by numerous major Western media outlets and even academic publications to claim that Russian bots were pushing conspiracy theories and promoting terms like “deep state” as well as hashtags such as #ReleaseTheMemo, #SchumerShutdown, #AlabamaSenateRace, and #ParklandShooting. However, the latest Twitter Files have revealed that the social media platform’s employees analyzed Hamilton68’s list of supposed “Russian bots,” only to find that these accounts were “neither strongly Russian nor strongly bots” and primarily consisted of real people living in the US, Canada, and the UK. “It was a scam. Instead of tracking how ‘Russia’ influenced American attitudes, Hamilton 68 simply collected a handful of mostly real, mostly American accounts, and described their organic conversations as Russian scheming,” wrote Taibbi.

The ASD has since attempted to defend its dashboard, claiming it was not meant as a list of Moscow-backed opinion leaders, but was a “nuanced” tool that was misunderstood by journalists. However, the committee’s own members have previously been on record as claiming that the Hamilton68 list included accounts used by Moscow to “discredit the FBI… attack ABC news… critique the Obama administration… and warn about violence by immigrants.” “This is the biggest journalism scam in a very long time,” replied Musk, who criticized the ASD’s attempts to shrug off any responsibility as a “disingenuous response.”

“In fact, Baquet added, “I think we covered that story better than anyone else..”

• The Press Versus The President, Part One (CJR)

The end of the long inquiry into whether Donald Trump was colluding with Russia came in July 2019, when Robert Mueller III, the special counsel, took seven, sometimes painful, hours to essentially say no. “Holy shit, Bob Mueller is not going to do it,” is how Dean Baquet, then the executive editor of the New York Times, described the moment his paper’s readers realized Mueller was not going to pursue Trump’s ouster. Baquet, speaking to his colleagues in a town hall meeting soon after the testimony concluded, acknowledged the Times had been caught “a little tiny bit flat-footed” by the outcome of Mueller’s investigation.

That would prove to be more than an understatement. But neither Baquet nor his successor, nor any of the paper’s reporters, would offer anything like a postmortem of the paper’s Trump-Russia saga, unlike the examination the Times did of its coverage before the Iraq War. In fact, Baquet added, “I think we covered that story better than anyone else” and had the prizes to prove it, according to a tape of the event published by Slate. In a statement to CJR, the Times continued to stand by its reporting, noting not only the prizes it had won but substantiation of the paper’s reporting by various investigations. The paper “thoroughly pursued credible claims, fact-checked, edited, and ultimately produced ground-breaking journalism that has proven true time and again,” the statement said.

But outside of the Times’ own bubble, the damage to the credibility of the Times and its peers persists, three years on, and is likely to take on new energy as the nation faces yet another election season animated by antagonism toward the press. At its root was an undeclared war between an entrenched media, and a new kind of disruptive presidency, with its own hyperbolic version of the truth. (The Washington Post has tracked thousands of Trump’s false or misleading statements.) At times, Trump seemed almost to be toying with the press, offering spontaneous answers to questions about Russia that seemed to point to darker narratives. When those storylines were authoritatively undercut, the follow-ups were downplayed or ignored.

Smart art
https://twitter.com/i/status/1619676345583439872

Baby polar bear

The first weeks of life of an orphaned baby polar bear pic.twitter.com/TZkv0F8jDG

— Gabriele Corno (@Gabriele_Corno) January 29, 2023

Waterfall elephant

Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated. pic.twitter.com/Ik7n1eNCv9

— Gabriele Corno (@Gabriele_Corno) January 30, 2023

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You Thought The Saudis Were Kidding?

Dec 242014

December 24, 2014 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 1:13 am Finance Tagged with: oil, OPEC, Putin.Texas, Saudi Arabia, Shale 17 Responses »

NPC Sidney Lust’s 18th Street cinema decorated for Halloween, Washington, DC Oct 1920

There are many things I don’t understand these days, and some are undoubtedly due to the limits of my brain power. But at the same time some are not. I’m the kind of person who can no longer believe that anyone would get excited over a 5% American GDP growth number. Not even with any other details thrown in, just simply a print like that. It’s so completely out of left field and out of proportion that you would think by now at least a few more people understand what’s really going on.

And Tyler Durden breaks it down well enough in Here Is The Reason For The “Surge” In Q3 GDP (delayed health-care spending stats make up for 2/3 of the 5%), but still. I would have hoped that more Americans had clued in to the nonsense that has been behind such numbers for many years now. The US has been buying whatever growth politicians can squeeze out of the data and their manipulation, for many years. The entire world has.

The 5% stat is portrayed as being due to increased consumer spending. But most of that is health-care related. And economies don’t grow because people increase spending on not being sick and/or miserable. That’s just an accounting trick. The economy doesn’t get better if we all drive our cars into a tree, even if GDP numbers would say otherwise.

All the MSM headlines about consumer confidence and comfort and all that, it doesn’t square with the 43 million US citizens condemned to living on food stamps. I remember Halloween spending (I know, that’s Q4) was down an atrocious -11%, but the Q3 GDP print was +5%? Why would anyone volunteer to believe that? Do they all feel so bad any sliver of ‘good news’ helps? Are we really that desperate?

We already saw the other day that Texas is ramming its way right into a recession, and North Dakota is not far behind (training to be a driller is not great career choice going forward), and T. Boone Pickens of all people confirmed today at CNBC what we already knew: the number of oil rigs in the US is about to do a Wile E. cliff act. And oil prices fall because global demand is down, as much as because supply is up. A crucial point that few seem to grasp; the Saudis do though. Good for US GDP, you say?

What I see more than anything in the 5% print is a set-up for a Fed rate hike, through a variation on the completion backward principle, i.e. have the message fit the purpose, set up a narrative that makes it make total sense for Yellen to hike that rate. And Wall Street banks (that’s not just the American ones) will be ready to reap the rewards of the ensuing chaos.

And I also don’t understand why nobody seems to understand what Saudi Arabia and OPEC have consistently been saying for ever now. They’re not going to cut their oil production. Not going to happen. The Saudis, probably more than anyone, are the guys who know what demand is really like out there (they see it and track it on a daily basis), and that’s why they’ll let oil drop as far as it will go. There’s no other way out anymore, no use calling a bottom anywhere.

In the two largest markets, US demand is down through far less miles driven for a number of years now, while domestic supply is way up; at the same time, real Chinese demand is way below what anybody projects, and oil is just one of many industries that have set their – corporate – strategies to fit expected China growth numbers that never materialized. Just you watch what other – industrial – commodities fields are going to do and show in 2015. Or simply look at prices for iron ore, copper etc. today.

OPEC Leader Vows Not To Cut Oil Output Even If Price Hits $20

In an unusually frank interview, Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, tore up OPEC’s traditional strategy of keeping prices high by limiting oil output and replaced it with a new policy of defending the cartel’s market share at all costs. “It is not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is,” he told the Middle East Economic Survey. “Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant.” He said the world may never see $100 a barrel oil again.

The comments, from a man who is often described as the most influential figure in the energy industry, marked the first time that Mr Naimi has explained the strategy shift in detail. They represent a “fundamental change” in OPEC policy that is more far-reaching than any seen since the 1970s, said Jamie Webster, oil analyst at IHS Energy. “We have entered a scary time for the oil market and for the next several years we are going to be dealing with a lot of volatility,” he said. “Just about everything will be touched by this.”

Saudi Arabia is desperate alright, but not nearly as much as most other producers: they have seen this coming, they’ve been tracking it hour by hour, and then made their move. And they have some room to move yet. Many other producers don’t. Not inside OPEC, and certainly not outside of it. Russia should be relatively okay, they’re smart enough to see these things coming too, and adapt accordingly. Many other nations don’t and haven’t, perhaps simply because they have no room left. Anatole Kaletsky makes quite a bit of sense at Reuters:

The Reason Oil Could Drop As Low As $20 Per Barrel

… the global oil market will move toward normal competitive conditions in which prices are set by the marginal production costs, rather than Saudi or OPEC monopoly power. This may seem like a far-fetched scenario, but it is more or less how the oil market worked for two decades from 1986 to 2004.

Whichever outcome finally puts a floor under prices, we can be confident that the process will take a long time to unfold. It is inconceivable that just a few months of falling prices will be enough time for the Saudis to either break the Iranian-Russian axis or reverse the growth of shale oil production in the United States. It is equally inconceivable that the oil market could quickly transition from OPEC domination to a normal competitive one.

The many bullish oil investors who still expect prices to rebound quickly to their pre-slump trading range are likely to be disappointed. The best that oil bulls can hope for is that a new, and substantially lower, trading range may be established as the multi-year battles over Middle East dominance and oil-market share play out. The key question is whether the present price of around $55 will prove closer to the floor or the ceiling of this new range. [..]

… the demarcation line between the monopolistic and competitive regimes at a little below $50 a barrel seems a reasonable estimate of where one boundary of the new long-term trading range might end up. But will $50 be a floor or a ceiling for the oil price in the years ahead?

There are several reasons to expect a new trading range as low as $20 to $50, as in the period from 1986 to 2004. Technological and environmental pressures are reducing long-term oil demand and threatening to turn much of the high-cost oil outside the Middle East into a “stranded asset” similar to the earth’s vast unwanted coal reserves. [..]

The U.S. shale revolution is perhaps the strongest argument for a return to competitive pricing instead of the OPEC-dominated monopoly regimes of 1974-85 and 2005-14. Although shale oil is relatively costly, production can be turned on and off much more easily – and cheaply – than from conventional oilfields. This means that shale prospectors should now be the “swing producers” in global oil markets instead of the Saudis.

In a truly competitive market, the Saudis and other low-cost producers would always be pumping at maximum output, while shale shuts off when demand is weak and ramps up when demand is strong. This competitive logic suggests that marginal costs of U.S. shale oil, generally estimated at $40 to $50, should in the future be a ceiling for global oil prices, not a floor.

As Kaletsky also suggests, there is the option of a return to an OPEC monopoly and much higher prices, but I personally don’t see that. It would need to mean a return to prolific global economic growth numbers, and I simply can’t see where that would come from.

Meanwhile, there’s the issue of ‘anti-Putin’ sanctions hurting western companies, with an asset swap between Gazprom and German chemical giant BASF that went south, and a failed deal between Morgan Stanley and Rosneft as just two examples, and that leads me to think pressure to lift or ease these sanctions will rise considerably in 2015. Why Angela Merkel is so set on punishing her (former?) friend Putin, I don’t know, but I can’t see how she can ignore domestic corporate pressure to wind down much longer. Russia is part of the global economic system, and excluding it – on flimsy charges to boot – is damaging for Germany and the rest of Europe.

Finally, still on the topic of oil and gas, Wolf Richter provides another excellent analysis and breakdown of US shale.

First Oil, Now US Natural Gas Plunges off the Chart

It’s showing up everywhere. Take Samson Resources. As is typical in that space, there is a Wall Street angle to it. One of the largest closely-held exploration and production companies, Samson was acquired for $7.2 billion in 2011 by private-equity firms KKR, Itochu Corp., Crestview Partners, and NGP Energy Capital Management. They ponied up $4.1 billion. For the rest of the acquisition costs, they loaded up the company with $3.6 billion in new debt. In addition to the interest expense on this debt, Samson is paying “management fees” to these PE firms, starting at $20 million per year and increasing by 5% every year.

KKR is famous for leading the largest LBO in history in 2007 at the cusp of the Financial Crisis. The buyout of a Texas utility, now called Energy Future Holdings Corp., was a bet that NG prices would rise forevermore, thus giving the coal-focused utility a leg up. But NG prices soon collapsed. And in April 2014, the company filed for bankruptcy. Now KKR is stuck with Samson. Being focused on NG, the company is another bet that NG prices would rise forevermore. But in 2011, they went on to collapse further. In 2014 through September, the company lost $471 million, the Wall Street Journal reported, bringing the total loss since acquisition to over $3 billion. This is what happens when the cost of production exceeds the price of NG for years.

Samson has used up almost all of its available credit. In order to stay afloat a while longer, it is selling off a good part of its oil-and-gas fields in Oklahoma, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado. It’s shedding workers. Production will decline with the asset sales – the reverse of what investors in its bonds had been promised. Samson’s junk bonds have been eviscerated. In early August, the $2.25 billion of 9.75% bonds due in 2020 still traded at 103.5 cents on the dollar. By December 1, they were down to 56 cents on the dollar. Now they trade for 43.5 cents on the dollar. They’d plunged 58% in four months.

The collapse of oil and gas prices hasn’t rubbed off on the enthusiasm that PE firms portray in order to attract new money from pension funds and the like. “We see this as a real opportunity,” explained KKR co-founder Henry Kravis at a conference in November. KKR, Apollo Global Management, Carlyle, Warburg Pincus, Blackstone and many other PE firms traipsed all over the oil patch, buying or investing in E&P companies, stripping out whatever equity was in them, and loading them up with piles of what was not long ago very cheap junk bonds and even more toxic leveraged loans.This is how Wall Street fired up the fracking boom.

PE firms gathered over $100 billion in their energy funds since 2011. The nine publicly traded E&P companies that represent the largest holdings have cost PE firms at least $12.7 billion, the Wall Street Journal figured. This doesn’t include their losses on the smaller holdings. Nor does it include losses from companies like Samson that are not publicly traded. And it doesn’t include losses pocketed by bondholders and leveraged loan holders or all the millions of stockholders out there.

Undeterred, Blackstone is raising its second energy-focused fund; it has a $4.5 billion target, Bloomberg reported. The plunge in oil and gas prices “has not created a lot of difficulties for us,” CEO Schwarzman explained at a conference on December 10. KKR’s Kravis said at the same conference that he welcomed the collapse as an opportunity. Carlyle co-CEO Rubenstein expected the next 5 to 10 years to be “one of the greatest times” to invest in the oil patch.

The problem? “If you have an asset you already own, it’s probably going to go down in value,” Rubenstein admitted. But if you’ve got money to invest, in Carlyle’s case about $7 billion, “it’s a great time to buy.” They all agree: opportunities will be bountiful for those folks who refused to believe the hype about fracking over the past few years and who haven’t sunk their money into energy companies. Or those who got out in time.

We live in a new world, and the Saudis are either the only or the first ones to understand that. Because they are so early to notice, and adapt, I would expect them to come out relatively well. But I would fear for many of the others. And that includes a real fear of pretty extreme reactions, and violence, in quite a few oil-producing nations that have kept a lid on their potential domestic unrest to date. It would also include a lot of ugliness in the US shale patch, with a great loss of jobs (something it will have in common with North Sea oil, among others), but perhaps even more with profound mayhem for many investors in US energy. And then we’re right back to your pension plans.