Figmund Sreud
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@ Dr. Day – It’s post peak oil “trauma”.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/03/22/273-systemic-jeopardy/
——————————-Thanks. Nice, … nice write up. Nicely put. I’m fully in agreement with a whole thesis! General trouble, however, with all that stuff is projection vis-a-vis one’s time factor. The author states, “Are we – to put it colloquially – heading into a re-run of the Wall Street crash and the ensuing Great Depression?
The answer is that we are.”
… in moi situation, it is when? Time is precious for me. I no longer have much time left, so I’m forced to play market presenting itself today, tight now, … plus three days or so of projection. An example:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/image-55.png… as opposed to long term as depicted in following cartoon:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Bull-Bear-Markets-2-052220.pngBest,
F.S.
P.S., … thanks for digging up Alex Kreiner essay, too. I have spent large parts of my existence on both sides he writes about as well, … and so I largely concur with his assessment.
The West’s Reckoning?
“Western leaders are experiencing two stunning events: defeat in Ukraine, and genocide in Palestine. The first is humiliating, the other shameful. Yet, they feel no humiliation or shame. Their actions show vividly that those sentiments are alien to them – unable to penetrate the entrenched barriers of dogma, arrogance, and deep-seated insecurities. The last are personal as well as political. Therein lies a puzzle. For, as a consequence, the West has set itself on a path of collective suicide. Moral suicide in Gaza; diplomatic suicide – the foundations laid in Europe, the Middle East, and across Eurasia; economic suicide – the dollar-based global financial system jeopardized, Europe deindustrializing. It is not a pretty picture. Astoundingly, this self-destruction is occurring in the absence of any major trauma – external or internal. Therein lies another, related puzzle. […]
Gorilla Radio
Ken Stone and fighting for peace in the Middle East from Canada. John Helmer and Europe’s mental quagmire in the second half.
https://gradio.substack.com/p/gorilla-radio-with-chris-cook-ken-cec
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Jeremy Grantham’s March 11 update. He points out that the current Shiller PE over 34 for the S&P 500 represents the most expensive 1% of all historical incidents. It has happened at a time when profit margins have also been at all-time highs and unemployment near all-time lows. What could possibly go wrong?
THE GREAT PARADOX OF THE U.S. MARKET!
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-great-paradox-of-the-u.s.-market_viewpoints#Mirror, mirror on the wall, … The mirror never lies! The fate of nations is ultimately a tow to Aliaga*) in Turkey. Sad, …
The fastest ocean liner to cross the Atlantic faces eviction from a pier
https://www.npr.org/2024/03/11/1237529064/the-fastest-ocean-liner-to-cross-the-atlantic-faces-eviction-from-pier*) Aliaga, Turkey – https://i.insider.com/63cff0b3758d620019b66dd4?width=1300&format=jpeg&auto=webp
Alastair Crooke:
“[T]he White House is coming to terms with a new experience: The limitations to U.S. power and to automatic compliance by other states – even the closest of allies.
The U.S. can neither force its will on Israel, nor compel an ‘Arab Contact Group’ to come into being, nor compel a putative Arab Contact Group to support and fund Biden’s “fantastical” Gaza ‘solutions’. It is a salutary moment for U.S. power.
‘Out of Touch With Reality’ – White House Fails to Navigate the Israeli Re-calibration
“America is rising,” POTUS declared last night. “We have the best economy in the world.”
… have-a-lookie at following cartoon:
Anyway, … related: Douglas Macgregor chimes in:
F.S.
Who knew?
International Court Accuses 2 Russian Officers of War Crimes in Ukraine
The International Criminal Court on Tuesday issued arrest warrants for two top Russian military officers, accusing them of war crimes in Ukraine for targeting civilians and destroying crucial energy infrastructure.
The two officers — Lt. Gen. Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash and Adm. Viktor Nikolayevich Sokolov — are accused in a court statement of being personally responsible for numerous missile strikes by their forces on electrical power plants and substations in multiple locations between October 2022 and March 2023.
The wintertime strikes were defined as war crimes because they were largely directed against civilian targets, causing “excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects,” the court said.
… of course, Gaza, West Bank, Palestine? Crickets, … absolute silence; no communication.
And so it goes, …
Everything You Wanted to Know About Secret Biolabs in Ukraine, Now Revealed!
DOD Operation Warp Speed confirms – pathogens are made in the labs. It’s ok when WE do it! It’s to save grandma and for warfighter readiness…
From “Opinion[ated]” Times this a.m. ( … via my inBox), boldadded by moi
Nuclear War: The Rising Risk, and How We Stop It
Few nations on earth are unaffected. If the strike happens in a country like Ukraine, among the largest grain-exporting nations in the world, the impact spreads quickly. The attack prompts an agricultural embargo to contain potentially contaminated crops, creating a domino effect of food shortages that spread across the Middle East, South Asia, North Africa and West Africa.
Fear is as dangerous as contamination itself: Panic over radiation exposure and its long-term effects drives people from their homes, regardless of whether the threat in their community is real or not. Border crossings are quickly overrun.
Anxieties over a wider nuclear war immediately spike, causing the New York Stock Exchange to plunge. Lockdown orders trigger a rush on groceries, wiping markets’ shelves clean.
No one can say what would happen next. If it was Vladimir Putin who launched an attack on Ukraine, the U.S. has warned there would be “catastrophic consequences.” But the response might not be nuclear. It could be a devastating aerial bombardment aimed at Russia’s naval fleet, or Washington could decide to target a base in Belarus, where Russia has recently deployed nuclear weapons, avoiding a direct attack on Russian territory.
A tit-for-tat escalation, once touched off, is difficult to stop. If the end result was a thermonuclear exchange between nuclear powers, like the U.S. and Russia, the impact on humanity would be swift and long-lasting.
Even a limited nuclear war could be catastrophic. A 2022 scientific study found that if 100 Hiroshima-size bombs — less than 1 percent of the estimated global nuclear arsenal — were detonated in certain cities, they could generate more than five million tons of airborne soot, darkening the skies, lowering global temperatures and creating the largest worldwide famine in history.
An estimated 27 million people could immediately die, and as many as 255 million people may starve within two years.
the rapidly eroding Anglo-American empire will now be compelled to swallow the bitter pill of decisive strategic defeat on the same eastern European steppes where its predecessors were served their own banquet of consequences. – from https://imetatronink.substack.com/ [ … nice find, btw. Thanks.]
____________________________You wish, … you cannot underestimate very next actions of a cage animal! Precious little does the world know, caged animal will most often scrape the inner walls of its mind until it gets what it wants! Thucydides’ Trap, … I will stick to that term, …
F.S.
You need to look up The Moning Newsletter – The New York Times this a.m. It starts with:
Good morning. We’re covering the Republican fascination with Vladimir Putin — as well as the U.S.-Mexico border, Gaza and the subway.
… follows with a large, large pix of Putin, … than goes with this – I copy and paste since link function does not want to cooperate:
Enemy or ally?
Large parts of the Republican Party now treat Vladimir Putin as if he were an ideological ally. Putin, by contrast, continues to treat the U.S. as an enemy.This combination is clearly unusual and sometimes confusing. It does not appear to stem from any compromising information that Putin has about Donald Trump, despite years of such claims from Democrats. Instead, Trump and many other Republicans seem to feel ideological sympathies with Putin’s version of right-wing authoritarian nationalism. They see the world dividing between a liberal left and an illiberal right, with both themselves and Putin — along with Viktor Orban of Hungary and some other world leaders — in the second category.
Whatever the explanation, the situation threatens decades of bipartisan consensus about U.S. national security.
Already, House Republicans have blocked further aid to Ukraine — a democracy and U.S. ally that Putin invaded. Without the aid, military experts say Russia will probably be able to take over more of Ukraine than it now holds.
If Trump wins a second term, he may go further. He has suggested that he might abandon the U.S. commitment to NATO, an alliance that exists to contain Russia and that Putin loathes. He recently invited Russia to “to do whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries that don’t spend enough on their own defense. (Near the end of his first term, he tried to pull American troops out of Germany, but President Biden rescinded the decision.)
Trump has also avoided criticizing Putin for the mysterious death this month of his most prominent domestic critic, Aleksei Navalny, and has repeatedly praised Putin as a strong and smart leader. In a town hall last year, Trump refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine or Russia to win the war.
There are some caveats worth mentioning. Some skepticism about how much money the U.S. should send to Ukraine stems from practical questions about the war’s endgame. It’s also true that some prominent Republicans, especially in the Senate, are horrified by their party’s pro-Russian drift and are lobbying the House to pass Ukraine aid. “If your position is being cheered by Vladimir Putin, it’s time to reconsider your position,” Senator Mitt Romney of Utah said last month.
But the Republican fascination with Putin and Russia is real. The Putin-friendly faction of the party is ascendant, while some of his biggest critics, like Mitch McConnell, who announced this week that he would step down this year as the Republican Senate leader, will soon retire.
(We recommend this article — in which Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent, explains that while McConnell sees the U.S. as the world’s essential force, a growing number of Republicans do not.)
In the rest of today’s newsletter, we’ll walk through the evidence of this shift.
Ukraine aid
The Senate has passed an additional $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, with both Republican and Democratic support. But the House, which Republicans control, has so far refused to pass that bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is close to Trump, has not allowed a vote on the bill even though it would likely pass if he did.A few Republicans have gone so far as speak about Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in ways that mimic Russian propaganda. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has accused Ukraine of having “a Nazi army,” echoing language Putin used to justify the invasion.
Military experts say that if Ukraine does not receive more U.S. aid, it could begin losing the war in the second half of this year. “Not since the first chaotic months of the invasion, when Russian troops poured across the borders from every direction and the country rose up en masse to resist, has Ukraine faced such a precarious moment,” wrote our colleagues Andrew Kramer and Marc Santora, who have been reporting from Ukraine.
(Related: Ukrainians who live to the west of the recently captured Avdiivka are poised to flee in the face of a Russian onslaught.)
Alexander Smirnov
House Republicans hoping to impeach President Biden have repeatedly promoted information that appears to have been based partly on Russian disinformation. One example: The Republicans cited an F.B.I. document in which an informant accused Biden and his son, Hunter, of taking $5 million bribes from the owner of Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company.But federal prosecutors have now accused the informant, Alexander Smirnov, of fabricating the allegation to damage Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. Smirnov has told the F.B.I. that people linked to Russian intelligence passed him information about Hunter Biden.
A federal judge has ordered Smirnov detained and called him a flight risk.
Tucker Carlson
Tucker Carlson is not a Republican Party official, but he is an influential Trump supporter, and Carlson has often echoed Russian propaganda. At least once, he went so far as to say he hoped Russia would win its war against Ukraine.Last month, Carlson aired a two-hour interview with Putin in which Putin made false claims about Ukraine, Zelensky and Western leaders with little pushback from Carlson. In a separate video recorded inside a Russian grocery store, Carlson suggested life in Russia was better than in the U.S. (Watch Jon Stewart debunk those claims here.)
Republican voters
The shift in elite Republican opinion toward Russia and away from Ukraine has influenced public opinion.Shortly after Russia invaded, about three-quarters of Republicans favored giving Ukraine military and economic aid, according to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Now, only about half do.
Republican voters are also less likely to hold favorable views of Zelensky. In one poll, most Trump-aligned Republicans even partly blamed him for the war. Republicans also support NATO at lower rates than Democrats and independents, a shift from the 1980s.
More on the war
“Donald Trump views himself as a Putinesque, dictatorial figure,” Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic House leader, has said. “We should believe him that he wants to go down this road.” Jeffries also told The Times how he hoped Ukraine aid could pass.
The Biden administration is considering giving Ukraine weapons from Pentagon stockpiles even though it lacks money to replace them, a short-term bid to aid Ukraine until Congress acts.
Putin warned that direct Western intervention in Ukraine would risk nuclear war, alluding in a speech to the French president’s recent comments about sending NATO troops there.
Trump plans to meet next week with Viktor Orban, Hungary’s right-wing prime minister.There is more in that Morning Newsletter, … you may want to search for it. Most of it is behind a paywall. But if you quickly punch an “easy reader” function, it generally captures it all.
… fwiw,
F.S.
Following is commentary of the future of electric vehicles
THE NORWEGIAN ILLUSION
Starting mid-point last decade, the investment community became convinced EV adoption would quickly surge. EV penetrations would become so great that global oil consumption would imminently peak, or so consensus opinion widely believed. 2019 was repeatedly referenced as the year that oil demand would peak and then decline. In retrospect, these concerns were misplaced. Despite the massive COVID-19 disruption, oil demand in 2024 should reach 103 m b/d – 2.3 m b/d greater than 2019. Undeterred by the surprising surge indemand, manyanalystsremainconvincedthat“peakoildemand”isstillimminent. The investment community’s belief that EVs will displace the internal combustion engine remains as strong as ever. We vigorously disagree.
In our last letter, we predicted that global energy demand would consistently exceed expec- tations for the next twenty years. Never before have so many people been simultaneously in their period of energy-intensive economic development. Our essay focused broadly on total energy demand and specifically avoided oil consumption. Our choice was deliberate: we wanted to highlight the critical drivers of total energy demand and avoid getting distracted by the debate on EV penetration. Today’s essay focuses on oil and explains why we believe demand will surprise to the upside for years to come.[…]… Never in history has a less efficient “prime mover” displaced a more efficient one. We believe this time will be no different.
… and a written word from Alastair Crooke:
Puzzling, … few days ago – out of the blue – Canada’s CBC aired following vid on mainstream tv feed, … all about Russia’s new hypersonic missile:
Why? What prompted their propaganda department to air it now? Scare tactic of sort?
Interesting take:
Over the last four quarters, Tesla generated total revenue and earnings of $96 billion and $15 billion, respectively. Toyota’s revenue and earnings are roughly three times larger at $299 billion and $44 billion. Yet Tesla’s market cap is more than double that of Toyota.
Tesla shares have soared since going public, while Toyota and other major auto manufacturers’ shares have meandered along. Since going public in 2010 at $1.59 (split adjusted), Tesla shares are up nearly 12,000%. That figure is more stunning, considering it’s down 50% since late 2021.
Is Toyota The Next Tesla?
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-toyota-the-next-tesla/What do you know, … it’s harder to get insurance. It’s is a game changer:
Last year saw a record-breaking number of natural catastrophes causing at least $1bn in insurance losses: 37 separate events, according to data from insurance broker Aon. That included 25 so-called severe convective storms, of which 21 were in the US. It is the growing weight of events such as storms and wildfires — and the broadening of the areas that are exposed to them — that is raising anxiety in the sector, and changing the way risk is viewed.
Auto insurance premiums rose 20.6% year over year, … tenant and household insurance rose 6% annualized over just the last three months.
https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Insurance-claims-extreme-weather.png
The uninsurable world: what climate change is costing homeowners [ … this usually is behind a paywall]
https://www.ft.com/content/ed3a1bb9-e329-4e18-89de-9db90eaadc0bF.S
ICYMI, … or didn’t pay much attention to Putin’s near-monologue:
Putin explains dollarama:
https://youtu.be/ZoJHcX09MlU?si=B6J1A9_6geuo_E7e
F.S.
Making an alternate type of minced meat* out of Tucker Carlson – Ben Norton
F.S.
*) Tucker’s warmongering against China
“We have to vaccinate some bankers!” – Dr. Dave Collum ( at ~ 1:24:08)
Anyway, … answers to just about anything and everything from Collum!
F.S.
Linh Dinh’s short story on Kafka’s “Jackals and Arabs” in this new booklet of his – read free at:
… fwiw,
F.S.
Swiftonomics
Special Report: Taylor Swift’s Impact on the Economy in Los Angeles County
Think about it: … those not fortunate enough to get tickets directly must pay an average resale price of U$1,611 per SeatGeek. U$1,611 just gets you in the doors!
… more: Call it a gold rush: Taylor Swift is adding billions to the U.S. economy.
The Economy (Taylor’s Version)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/13/taylor-swift-eras-tour-money-jobs/F.S.
Yield curve reinventing! Recession is officially on, …
Re-steepening of the yield curve signals rising unemployment and deepening bear markets
…fwiw,
F.S.
Alastair Crooke
… The latest Peace Index survey reflects the pervasive gloom: 94% percent of Jews think Israel has used the right amount of firepower in Gaza (or “not enough” (43%)). Three-quarters of all Israelis think the number of Palestinians harmed since October is justified to achieve its aims; a full two-thirds of Jewish respondents say numbers of casualties are definitely justified (only 21% say “somewhat” justified).
Linh Dinh, originally of “Postcards from the End of [the] America[n Empire]” fame: … his latest:
Conversation with Dzuy in DC Homestay:
Of Vietnam, Dzuy claimed it’s one of the poorest countries on earth, “It’s ranked 176 out of 200!”
“That’s obviously not true! Just in this region, we’re doing better than Laos and Cambodia, and the Philippines, too, I think. If not, we’re close.”
“We’re not doing better than Laos.”
“I just spent six months over there! They’re poorer.”
“Then why do Vietnamese go there to work?”
“So what?! Chinese are in Africa. That doesn’t mean China is poorer than Africa.”
Dzuy also dismissed my observation that most of Sub-Saharan Africa is poorer than Vietnam. Hell, even China’s rise is illusory.
“They steal technology, make junk no one wants to buy and erect buildings that crumble!”
“In Laos, China just finished a rail system that’s superior to anything in the USA.”
“Impossible!”
“In Indonesia, Chinese built trains are twice as fast those in the USA.”
Dzuy shot me a look of disgust tinted with anger, “Nonsense!”
“So China has made no progress?”
“It’s an illusion. It will disappear. People who go there are shocked by how poor they are. China is like this puffed up pastry. There’s nothing inside!”
“They have enough money to flood over here as tourists.”
“So what? Even some Vietnamese go places.”
“So who’s doing well?”
“America!”
“What about Russia?”
The word alone made Dzuy glower, “Russia is so backward, uses 1980’s technology and can’t even beat Ukraine!”
“So they’re losing that war?”
“Of course!”
To Dzuy, Russia is just a thinly disguised Soviet Union,headed by a KGB goon, Putin. Together with China, it will collapse soon enough. The future is in the West.
“Russia is so far behind! They’re Vikings! Pirates!”
I didn’t bother to correct him. As for Americans living in tents and under bridges, they’re just drug addicts or lazy.
“The US is humane and tries to help everyone, but some people just can’t be helped.”
“Did the USA help Afghanistan, or did it make money then run?”
To this, Dzuy could only mumble, “That situation was complicated. Afghanistan was part of the Silk Road…”
“Didn’t the USA abandon South Vietnam?”
“No, that was our fault.”
“Didn’t it kill Ngo Dinh Diem? They propped him up, then killed him.”
“What are you basing that on?”
“It’s a fact. During the war against the French, Diem lived in New Jersey. As for the coup, our generals wouldn’t have dared to stage it without American approval. They did pay for everything.”
Kissinger himself said, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
… continues at:
“Russia is So Backward, Uses 1980’s Technology and Can’t Even Beat Ukraine!”
https://linhdinh.substack.com/p/russia-is-so-backward-uses-1980s?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2@ Dr. Day – Please Pause Genocide
———————————————-Yes, most appropriate headline vis-a-vis the Hague-based court order to Israel. Blasphemy!
Me, when I read the final court’s decision, all I could think of is a headline along the lines alike, ‘when raping (crime) withdraw momentarily when ejeculating!
F.S.
Helmer:
The Foreign Ministry and Security Council meetings confirm there is now a new definition of “terrorism” in Russian warfighting strategy, in which there is both public and secret support for Hamas, the Houthis, and other groups in Lebanon and Iraq fighting for national liberation against Israel and the US.
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY TIES RED SEA BLOCKADE TO GAZA BLOCKADE, BACKS HOUTHIS IN MOSCOW MEETING
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY TIES RED SEA BLOCKADE TO GAZA BLOCKADE, BACKS HOUTHIS IN MOSCOW MEETING
Tucker Carlson in Cowtown!*
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*) Udderly Art Pasture
Calgary, AlbertaAnd so, it’s all about Trump, … yet another round, once again!
… from my in-Box this a.m. (via TD WebBroker)
David Rosenberg: What another Trump term could mean for markets
Former President Donald Trump may well have created a chaotic environment within his administration, but there is no doubt that his four years in the White House from 2016 to 2020 juiced up investors’ “animal spirits.”
Who knows what his economic vision is going to be, assuming he emerges victorious this coming November, but what we do know is that:
• He measures his success by the direction of the equity market.
• He will use executive order to deregulate.
• He doesn’t give a hoot about fiscal deficits and is sure to boost spending and either extend his prior tax cuts or reduce them even further, especially for businesses (Trump added US$8 trillion to the national debt in his four years… he is a classic fiscal expansionist).
• He had no problem pursuing a soft U.S. dollar policy.
• Tariffs and other trade protectionist initiatives are sure to rear their heads (little difference from Joe Biden here).
• He loves inflation and low interest rates (he is, after all, a real estate guy).
• He has made no bones about getting rid of Jay Powell at the Federal Reserve.
No wonder gold did so well in his previous tenure, especially in his last two years when the yellow metal soared nearly 50%. True to form, in his first two years in office, the total return in the S&P 500 was 23%, even with a ton more volatility. The combination of the tax cuts and the Fed’s tightening program caused a bear flattener in the Treasury market – when short-term interest rates rise faster than long-term interest rates – and moderately negative returns. But the risk-on trade was underscored by the vast outperformance of corporate bonds.
The dollar was weak, and gold held its value.
And with all the drilling, oil prices remained broadly stable.
What’s interesting is that in Trump’s last two years where the GOP lost its grip on Congress, the stock market did even better. The S&P 500 soared 50% — gridlock is obviously good. But even bond yields fell sharply, and Treasury returns were spectacular — the long bong rose by nearly 40%. Not even his tax cuts, immigration policies, tariffs, and a 3.5% unemployment rate could muster up much, if any, inflation. And the Fed spent 2019 cutting rates. But one common theme was U.S. dollar depreciation and strength in both gold and oil.
Nothing is saying that if Trump wins the election, we will necessarily see a repeat. But what we do know is that he is a big fan of debt and loves a weaker dollar.
The fact that he grades his performance based on the S&P 500 means we probably will need to shift to a more constructive stance on the market if he wins and add some gold to the portfolio while screening all the holdings against U.S. dollar weakness.David Rosenberg is founder of Rosenberg Research, and author of the daily economic report, Breakfast with Dave.
F.S.
