oxymoron
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Lost for words.
Nope found some….
This liquidity crunch and the virus is some dark stuff from ye olde human perspective.
I’d hate to own a dating app right now.
Gotta get work when you can and keep whatever money coming in as there is now a whole world of purse strings tightening like a noose.Thank God I paid attention (and took action) to those bloody TAE primers all those years ago.
Strangerdanger457 I think the titanic metaphor is useful here but not perfect. It is about timing – if the ship is actually going down then the rush is on already and the strategies you are contemplating may be a little late in the piece. Holding cash is always good as a hedge and buying something even this week may be hard or impossible as business everywhere is going full tilt wind back. Rototillerman’s advice above is spot on – spread your resilience into many areas including skill set and health. If you can buy without debt now – it may be safer than to try and hold large liquid sums in what ever form through the slide in prices. Avoid debt but trying to spot a bargain in this time is a high risk high speculation proposition in my opinion but I’m not an expert.
All the best and remember this virus in terms of actual percentage of the population dying may not be high but the risks are still there so focus on health as per John Day’s recommendations.John, pill bugs are the worst. In this dry climate they are great decomposers but shocking with vegetables. So hot and dry you need mulch in summer but if you put it down they ringbark every seedling. Our answer is to plant into tin cans open top and bottom dug into earth as a barrier. Also removing mulch until the plant stem hardens off.
Keep up the good work,
Oh and the cabbage whitefly can jump off a cliff- they are the worst.
The quote from Raul I posted was more for interest sake and review but re-reading some of their primers from way back reminded me of the value of this type of analysis. Raul, Nicole and David Holmgren amongst others have put their necks out with commentary and information sharing for a long time now and I for one am just so much better positioned during this Monetary reset and cultural chaos period because of them.
Life goes on (maybe not for the bazillion species now lost to history from our industry). Let’s keep digging people. There is a lot of bullshit to wade through.Oh and the Primer “40 ways to lose your future” – scary.
Raul, this is something you wrote in 2008- And after reading the room (there was a knife wielding in a supermarket over toilet paper) I reckon the trust horizon is shrinking so damn fast that I thought we could all have a re-read :
We have lived through a time of unprecedented affluence, and we have seen it as normal, and told ourselves we deserved all of it, that we are entitled to what it has given us. But it’s over, and it will be no more, nor will it ever return in our lifetimes. If we are to live in a functioning society in the years to come, we will have to share much of our riches, and we will have to find out how to be fulfilled with much less material wealth. If we don’t, our societies will collapse, and we will lose that wealth regardless. But looking around me, I see little hope that we will do all these things before it’s too late. It you don’t volunteer to share, the difference in wealth between you and your own children’s generation will become so glaring that they will come and take it away from you.
An era is over. We have been the last of the affluent, the carefree and the innocent. Not that we’re really all that innocent, mind you, it was all just pretense all the way, many millions of people have died for our affluence. We just never told ourselves their life stories. They will be our stories soon.
Are you now ready to fight in the streets, to protect your family, to share your meal with the hungry? It’s not about being a leftie, or a softie, and I certainly am neither. It’s about survival. It’s about being smart enough to read the world you live in. The model of the nuclear family will die with the affluence. It’s never been but an aberration. You will, like your ancestors before you, need your family, your friends, and your neighbors.
Life itself is about to come calling.
The US is now Australia’s no 1 infection vector. The Victorian Premier is asking why we are not cancelling flights from the US. Also the US has the lowest testing per capita in the world for countries affected by corona
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-15/three-reasons-why-america-coronavirus-testing-is-so-low/12052936It’s true about the planes and billionaires. What did Australia’s first people know about the black plague? 60 thousand years of doin’ stuff and then multi-national travel kicks in – boom small pox and all the rest. It’s been a long expansionist fuckup. But
We are the world,
We are the children,
We are the ones who make a brighter day
So let’s start giving, let’s start giving
But there’s a chance we’re taking,
We’re taking our own lives
It’s true we’ll make a brighter day
Just you and meAlso – this is huge, but woke up this morning and thought of Dr D’s position and then Yemen came to mind and I thought 5000 people…. I know more will die but there is just so much death going on that is preventable by govt. and popular action. People the world over can mobile so fast out of self interest but can’t seem to see the ‘other’ as a brother from another mother.
Same with nature.I’m gunna get back into meditation
Yeah Doc Robinson, not sure myself about the higher temperatures thingy. Australia seems to be following the same pattern of rising infections and according to that temperature map we be the hottest place on earth. So from a climate change perspective – reduction in industrial output is supposed to make me feel bad?…..
Very confusing times.“When schools close, mothers get worried – and this stops economic activity,” industry consultant and former GM executive Warren Browne said.
Damn! I had a feeling all along it was women and children responsible for the ecological holocaust of the modern market economy. Damn them.
So glad I was finally told what’s been going on.Raul – you know we all hang out for the feed and analysis. Now lock down is happening, waiting for your post is like being one of those morons standing outside the department stores for after christmas sales.
Also thanks to all of you contributing to comments for additional info and analysis.Fourth turning is making me dizzy. Ok, so I have always had an emergency cash and dry goods supply for me and the family – in case of fire, accident, war whatever. But if everyone is gunna rush the stores now I am going to have to refine the plan….. and get more – this thing could drag on…
Definitely getting the hot water jacket hooked up to the stove – wood I own, Gas, well the Oligarchs may need to sell it for more than I can afford.
Soon we will get to the social distancing here in Australia and kids won’t go to school so it’s bulk buying time I am afraid.Clearly we should run an 80 year old with 5 heart attacks who can’t stand up for 30 minutes rather than a 40-year-old decorated woman-of-color Army Major centerfold surfer. That’s just common sense!
Nope, you are not running out of words.
If you were a Jazz musician I’d tell you to write pop songs Dr D. You got licks for days.But hang on, I thought the dems wanted the next president a woman.
Still no toilet paper at the super market. I was chuckling looking at the huge empty space in the consumer vortex, however a reasonable young woman of about 20 was not as impressed – but it was even funnier because we both knew as we stood there we were thinking about poo and our toilets and what was missing as interface between them. I have a wife and two kids – 2 and 10. I have in the wood shed about 2 years worth of newspaper the council shoves in my letter box so luckily I have the composting toilet.Speaking of not caring. Wars are so boring when it’s just other people with our guns.
Outbreak. Virus. Pandemic. Lockdown. Pathogen. Vaccine.
I mean they just read well – hashtag trendingThe Media can’t help themselves.
No toilet paper on the shelves.
It’s getting a reaction
Damn Covid-19’s got traction.Sorry…… I should be at the piano but this crazy dumb-shit world!
Interesting Dr.D re the Italians locking down to ride out ye olde black plague way back when- that again originated in the East or Far East – China. Why do so many the nasty virusy thingies come from China? (Although it may have come from somewhere else). Some of the best bacterially dominated soils on earth with crap loads of humans and wide variety of dietary habits?
I dunno but it is weird. And those poor Italians – I didn’t know Florence took so damn long to recover – economically and socially (well socially they have really hung on to dark horror movies so……).
Still not a lot of people dying yet so I am backing your horse in this race.
We have some mud slinging going on here in Australia between politicians (protecting the people on the front line) and rich doctors (desperate to keep the good name of their practice clean now that one has gotten all Corona).Everyone is doing the funky chicken over this virus. I am glad TAE is covering the show.
It has the strange effect economically of kind of giving the population a little shake that says ‘hey the govt’ won’t really look after you. The media lie to you. The banks and corporations are out to get you. You have to start to look after yourselves’
That’s what this tiny little virus mixed in the age of too much fake news and weirdness is telling us.
In Australia the reaction has been to clean out all the supermarkets of toilet paper – which is Freud for “I am now shitting myself”
I just look forward to the seed section being cleaned out. Then we are headed in the right direction.
Dr D. You are onto it – it is a thing but it is a heist. Even if it is not a bullshit story there are just so many bullshit stories that you have to just put it in there with the rest by default.Assange is just being tortured. It is cruel and these people are able to just go about their business doing this harm and get paid for it by taxpayers. The Judge is just a straight up piece of shit. It is a crazy world full of crazy people. We need more love man. We really do.
Nice pick of Dr John there too.That graph on dependency relationships to China did not have Australia on it. Weird coz we are ALL IN!
I see a major reset on the horizon. Well maybe the horizon is a bit far. I see it in my lounge room. I actually see a big mess. Businesses the world over are just gonna be making phone calls like crazy – (invest in telecommunications!) Trying to order some version of stock from somewhere else. Perhaps this is the dawn of the Repair Cafe. Mend and make do mutha ‘ckers2 things. Can Trump throw Julian a bone then?
Can the British just enough already with the Antiques Roadshow mania. It is getting boring now. It’s there’s give it back, if nana still wants it too bad, be a grown up. You’ll survive. Although I wonder if your zero carbon emissions would survive a thorough review of the financial services sector and it’s funding arm? Carbon free off shore account activities and shell companies – I don’t f’ing think so.Any of these philanthropists are absolutely morally bankrupt. How can you be in the business of destroying huge parts/components/regions of the environment and then say you are making an attempt to save it? It is by definition insanity. I really want to have compassion for these people who are literally, clinically insane but they make me angry. I think of indigenous elders and chiefs just looking at the invaders taking down 3000 year old trees or damming rivers and I can see the same case. It is looking at an insane person and having compassion but knowing they will ultimately kill you and the world you love. It is the great plains with more than 60 million bison to 540 animals in 100 years. It really pisses me off.
The manufacturing of key components of medicine in China is fascinating to me. This outsourcing and just in time delivery thingy is brittle at the core. This virus is just one of many potential threats to the reliable arrival of what we need. This is really starting to look like a big time humanitarian disaster rolling out. I hope things get better soon. The Chinese are just stuck in their houses with no work and a huge sense of fear. They must be getting stir-crazy too. As for being on that cruise ship – bugger that!
Dr D. the top 10 logical fallacies with bonus number 11 was great – I’d like to add my newest favourite is virtue signalling. It is so hot right now. I read the internet so I must be a smart person who knows all about stuff.
Actually I am completely lost.Holy Crap! exponential and not quadratic. Seems obvious now it’s laid out….. Shit – this could get a lot worse before it gets better. Thanks so much for putting this article together Raul, it explains so many things – the massive lockdown – which would only have been done for the gravest of reasons, the delays in all info etc. The Spanish flu wiped out so many people but at a time when there wasn’t that many people so on a purely “it’s just math” level we could see a lot of people die and a lot of MAJOR disruption to markets and regular going’s on…
Great thread today but maybe I just get off on disaster-porn. Pensions are a bomb waiting to go off, the FED is absolutely driving everyone against the wall – all central banks are the same. Too many humans equals this virus going ape-shit. China is the weak link in the chain of supply if you can believe that sentence could be true. Maybe we are entering some crazy-arse Mayan calendar shit this year or something.
It must be said I agree about the bees- if the climate is so hard for the little guys then what the fuck are they doing here in Australia? I have 14 hives and they are going gangbusters. We got minus 4 celsius in winter and then reached 45 degrees this summer. They are fine…. Just stop dropping Napalm on them in the morning and they will keep thriving- I hate that smell.BTWSo I guess it’s time to start taking Zinc and vitamin D 3 then…… I mean I’m very fit and healthy ( install edible food gardens for my day job and homestead other times) but I’m not eating enough greens.
On another note – If nicole and Raul were advocating for a little cash hoarding and paying down your debts last time round – what is the best thing that China supply that I should stock up on so I can make a killing when it all runs out? Oh hang on that is like everything
Maybe it’s just mung beans, rice and some safety masks. A sense of humour has gotta be worth somethin’ too. World is getting heavy as shit right now.I think you can write what ever you want. We nearly lost the Debt rattle not so long ago. Just keep writing about what ever inspires you. But if I had my way it would be less US politics and more environmental shift and change which the virus most definitely falls under. The bigger the system the more interesting for me and lets face it the US is not that interesting.
The old folks on the cruise ship are doing their bit for the environment. In other news so is the oil industry by saving some of it for the future (even though they wanna use it up as fast as they can for dollars, I think also the airlines are helping hugely. They must have asked the question – “We have declared a climate emergency now what do we do?” Ah get a real job and learn to use your damn hands again or alternatively …..
Do nothing and all things will be done.I know people have to eat and protect crops but at some stage in the future aerial spraying of pesticide is gonna produce worse outcomes than we are getting now. Feedback loops etc. Crazy times indeed
In September last year the BOM National weather agency – issued a statement indicating stratospheric warming above the south pole that hadn’t occurred in a century or so. This air dumped across the mid latitudes of the Australian continent and they saw it coming. Cold water off the west coast of Australia (in dynamics with the warm as hell water off the east coast of Africa) only added to the drying of the air mass and the accumulation of searing desert air that has to periodically vent in a large circle. This very hot and super dry air picks up speed as it leaves these seemingly endless thermal storage areas of Australia and then flows over high rainfall forests. These forests produce seed that are largely only germinated by fire so it was always going to happen. The climate is changing but an event like this would have to occur (although less intensely) every so often. The original human inhabitants of this continent were quite aware they weren’t living in humid temperate areas. The landscape has always had periods of drought and that is why fire stick culture was used to burn the place.
When you have the sun’s energy stored in such perfect and efficient vessels (Eucalypts and Acacias and the rest) it is disaster waiting to happen – something TAE is well equipped to understand. It’s like Hubbert’s peak ramping to a cliff.
It is a tricky one for us who know better. We don’t have firestick knowledge and we have to stay still because land is an asset now. But we know this land needs fire. But needs a personal touch. You can’t get agencies to do this right – it has to be the job of family and tribe.
So what do we do?
For now…. build houses that are designed for these events. Cut down and manage trees with wider spacings to mimic pre-european landscapes. And never ask a politician to lead you back to nature…..Thanks so much for the suggestions and helping me relax re the tone…. I really appreciate the thoughtful response to my question and as always – to the crazy fucked-up world today.
There is a high likelihood I’ll be interviewing Julian Assange’s father on public radio in the next week or so and I am nervous about it. Does anyone have key questions they believe I should ask him other than the obvious health issues and state of the man?. I want the listeners to get maximum benefit from the opportunity and I don’t want to screw it up – after all I’m not the towering intellect of Dr D 🙂
Thanks Raul, that poem by Clive is really beautiful. Particularly the middle section where he is aware of his end but becomes more in the present. I hope to take that tone more going forward, been a bit up tight with worldly fools…
That stuff you wrote about Monbiot is true. The meal ticket kills all the truth that he would believe and packages it within that greasy newspaper. Like putting lipstick on a pig. Tell it like it is Ilargi.
Also, when you are planting fruit trees and installing veggie gardens and the rest as your way of generating income – as I do, you do sometimes scratch your head and wonder why so many of us want so many useless and lifeless things like gaming consoles and methamphetamines, I was netting Cherries for one of my clients today and took home a bunch and thought to my self so many of us could actually just do shit like this but we come up with a lot of reasons to eat up a lot of the earths energy.
Very confusing….it’s quite the balancing act – you have to be self-employed to pull it off – that of earning just enough income to have very little or no tax (here in Australia). You also want to get most of your money immediately spent on useful things like buildings, fencing, water tanks and earthworks. Things hard to steal and somewhat diffuse. A few truckloads of topsoil and some bird netting too.
Oh and Ilargi the Nate Hagens article was such a nice summary of things as they are in the human superorganism and gave me a lot of food for thought and a real desire for more action on my end.So thanks for thathttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919310067#bib0530
I know I’m off topic but that last article by Hagens got me thinking of energy in decline right now.
My chainsaw playing up and was talking to the old timer at the repair joint today, who told me that a life time of fixing small engines has brought him to the conclusion that the fuel is inferior to what it used to be and a major reason for the rising repair rates of high quality brands like Stihl and Husqvarna. But I guess now Morales is out we can get those battery operated ones and throw all the old ‘polluting’ ones in the bin. And anyway Australia is the worlds biggest producer of lithium so we’ll soon be able to visit the “Elon Musk future museum theme park” on our flying vac-bots all the way to Mars baby.I think Raul is right to posit the bullshit thrown at Trump, not because poor Donald needs our defence but because we are looking for the truth in the lies here. Sure Trump is a dickhead but the circus going on to win the minds of the voters is tearing the country apart it would seem. Just make some good policy and go for it. Sell it. DO SOMETHING in opposition.
And as for Dr D’s comments on the climate yesterday – typically ‘yawn’ Northern Hemispheric view – it’s okay, I grew up with it – we are called Down Under after all but It is so goddam hot here it is not funny and I reckon your chilly bidness that is apparently so cold that farming is a drag must be getting eclipsed here by our heat 16 heat records for November broken in a day in One State Alone. 44 celsius in spring aint no cold world. Nope
Not At All Cold. Not even slightly. It’s just fire in every state of our Union down here. Summer is December and January and Feb and it’s not here yet. God Help Us.
