New Cold War Archives - The Automatic Earth

If you’re wondering whether you’re living in tyranny, ask yourself how many of his political opponents Joe Biden is sending to prison. Steve Bannon is the latest.

(2:14) Why is Congress going after Steve Bannon?
(7:28) Biden Regime Wants Complete Power
(16:03) The Future of War… pic.twitter.com/21GBKKpMbv

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) June 11, 2024

Vucic

Serbia's President Vucic:
“We are heading for a MAJOR CATASTROPHE and it seems that the train has already left the station and can no longer be stopped. No one in the West is talking about peace anymore – only more WAR”pic.twitter.com/KVNJUxUU8S

— أبو عمّار (@MaajidNawaz) June 10, 2024

RFK Trump
https://twitter.com/i/status/1800576436731781143

The founder of Telegram, which has nearly a billion users, planned to HQ the company in San Francisco until he got attacked walking its streets pic.twitter.com/QWBxmMewHc

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) June 11, 2024

“..a previously-unreleased video..”

The Jan 6 committee decided to hold it back so they could promote false allegations against Trump. They must be investigated.

• Pelosi Admits Fault for the Lack of Jan 6 Security Precautions (Turley)

For years, some of us have asked why the Capitol was so poorly prepared for the January 6th riot. As part of the coverage on that day, I remarked at the start of the protests that I had never seen the Capitol so thinly protected for a major demonstration. Some paths to the Capitol were protected by a handful of bicycle officers and thin barriers. Now, a previously-unreleased video taken on Jan. 6, 2021 shows then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., admitting that she was responsible for the lack of preparedness. The video was disclosed in a posting on X by a House Republican panel. The video shows Pelosi in an exchange with Chief of Staff Terri McCullough on the evacuation.

Pelosi states: “We have responsibility, Terri. We did not have any accountability for what was going on there. And we should have. This is ridiculous. You’re going to ask me in the middle of the thing when they’ve already breached…that, should we call the Capitol Police? I mean the National Guard? Why weren’t the National Guard there to begin with?…They clearly didn’t know, and I take responsibility for not having them just prepared for more.” The video was never released by the J6 Committee, which was criticized for its highly choreographed and scripted hearings with little balance in the presentation of evidence. The lack of emphasis on the security issues was glaring and raised by critics throughout the hearings. While Democrats and the media dismissed the issue and claims that Trump offered to supply the national guard, it was later confirmed that those offers were made to Congress and rejected.

A report from Capitol Police Inspector General Michael Bolton also found that Capitol police were told that they could not use critical riot materials and tactics in preparation for the Jan. 6th protests. What was so curious about the lack of precautions that morning is that the Capitol had just experienced the violence outside of the White House in the Lafayette Park protests. To this day, the media and many members continue to repeat false accounts of the Lafayette Park. Many still have stories posted that claim that Lafayette Park was cleared for Trump to hold a photo op in front of a church. I discussed those accounts in testimony before Congress and in columns on the clearing of the Lafayette Park area. NPR still has a story on its website entitled “Peaceful Protesters Tear-Gassed To Clear Way For Trump Church Photo-Op.” More officers were injured in the Lafayette Park protests than on January 6th.

As previously discussed in repeated columns, the House Democratic leadership refused to hold a single hearing with key witnesses on what occurred before the riot. After using a “snap impeachment,” weeks went by without calling such witnesses before the Trump impeachment trial. Such evidence would have challenged the narrative and raised questions over decisions made by Congress that left the Capitol vulnerable to such an attack.In the Lafayette Park protests, White House officials feared that the compound could be breached by violent protesters who had injured dozens of officers and engaged in arson and attacks around the White House during that weekend. They decided to clear the area to install fencing (which Congress only ordered after the Jan. 6th riot). They also deployed the National Guard and the “heavier, less lethal weapons” that the Inspector General found were denied to the Capitol Police.

Had Pelosi and others accepted National Guard support and installed fencing as was done at the White House, it is doubtful that the riot on January 6th would have occurred or any disruption would have been far more limited in scope. The fact that the J6 Committee downplayed this major factor in the riot further undermines how the investigation was framed by the Democratic leadership. Pelosi barred the GOP members selected for the committee, hand picking two anti-Trump Republican members.

The absence of any balance on the committee was evident from the start. There was little effort to present alternative explanations or defenses to critical issues raised in hearings. No opposing witnesses were called who might contradict the narrative put forward by the Committee, including witnesses who would debunk the much-repeated, false claim that Trump wrestled with his driver to gain control of the presidential limo to drive to the Capitol. With the Speaker admitting on tape that she bore responsibility for the lack of precautions, one would think that the J6 Committee, including then Vice Chair Liz Cheney, would consider that relevant for the public to understand the underlying facts. Instead, it was buried with much other countervailing evidence.

Tucker Jan 6
https://twitter.com/i/status/1800541468051804485

“..the downward trend for Biden means that dropping out of the race is worth discussing, even though it “would be a big risk” for the Democrats..”

• Biden Campaign Claims Trump “Has Praised The Third Reich” (MN)

Biden campaign senior adviser Adrienne Elrod claimed Monday that Donald Trump has “praised the Third Reich” and intends to rule as a racist dictator. During an interview with CNN, Elrod was asked to comment on Republicans who “worship” Trump, and responded “I think that rhetoric speaks for itself.” “Donald Trump and his MAGA allies are focused on seeking revenge and retribution,” Elrod asserted, adding “They are running a negative campaign that is not focused on the American people, but is focused on themselves.” She continued, “Trump has made it very clear that if he steps back into that White House, he will rule as a dictator on day one. He will seek — he will use the White House to seek political revenge and retribution on his political enemies.” Trump actually said he won’t do that, but it doesn’t fit the Biden campaign’s narrative.

While she was at it, Elrod painted up Trump as an admirer of Hitler. “You know, he has said things that — you know, he’s praised the Third Reich. He has used, you know, racist rhetoric at every chance that he has,” she claimed. Praised the Third Reich? Presumably she is referring to this…

The desperation among the Biden campaign is palpable. His approval rating just hit a new all-time low of 37.4 percent. FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver noted that the downward trend for Biden means that dropping out of the race is worth discussing, even though it “would be a big risk” for the Democrats. “But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk,” Silver commented, adding “Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask.” “If I’d told you 10 years ago a president would seek re-election at 81 despite a supermajority of Americans having concerns about his age, and then we’d hit 8% inflation for 2 years, you wouldn’t be surprised he was an underdog for reelection. You’d be surprised it was even close!” Silver further wrote.

Lock him up. Throw away the key.

• NIH Scrambled After ZeroHedge Report On Fauci Beagle Experiments (ZH)

Last week, Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene took a detour from grilling Anthony Fauci over COVID-19, to confront him with photos of beagles who had been subjected to animal testing experiments widely reported to be funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) under the National Institutes of Health (NIH), following a 2021 investigation series by the group White Coat Waste Project. “We should be recommending you to be prosecuted,” Greene told Fauci. “We should be writing a criminal referral because you should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity. You belong in prison,” she continued, adding “That man does not deserve to have a license. As a matter of fact, it should be revoked and he belongs in prison.” This opened up a can of worms which includes a response from White Coat Waste, and triggered the Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler to do a deep dive into ‘Beaglegage’ in an effort to debunk Greene.

“When we first saw Greene hold up the photo, we figured this would be easy to debunk — another in a string of misleading attacks against Fauci, who became the public face of the government’s response to the pandemic.” -Washington Post. Only to discover that the NIH appears to have lied about funding the experiment, which involved beagles between 6 and 8 months old obtained from the kennels of the Pasteur Institute of Tunis. In the study, the beagles were sedated and then exposed to hundreds of sand flies that had been deprived of food for 24 hours. This exposure took place as part of research into zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL), a disease carried by sand flies that can affect dogs and humans. After ZeroHedge amplified the White Coat Waste report (archived), there was a full blown panic.

In late October 2021, CNN asked Fauci to appear for an interview, and one of his staff members suggested late on Oct. 24 that Fauci pause any TV interviews “until we get a handle on this.” Early the next morning, Fauci emailed 12 officials and asked them to “tell me what grant or contract they are referring to.” Within two hours, one replied that they might have identified the grant. (Most staff members’ names are redacted.) “Let us find out for sure if it is that grant, and then let us take a look at what the experimental design is, and importantly whether it has received the appropriate ethical and animal care consideration,” Fauci replied in an email. “I want this done right away since we are getting bombarded by protests.”

Within two hours, one of the researchers involved, Abhay Satoskar, a professor of pathology and microbiology at Ohio State University, emailed to say that NIAID had been mistakenly cited as a funder of the study and that he would seek a correction from the journal. One NIAID official wrote in an email that Satoskar “stated that it was mistakenly cited because he was not clear of the true purpose of US funding acknowledgment” and that the program in question had been funded only by the Pasteur Institute. Satoskar, meanwhile asked Shaden Kamhawi, the editor of the journal, to correct the article. Kamhawi initially agreed, but noted internally that she may have a conflict of interest as a NIAID employee. She then sent an email in a panic over the ZeroHedge article potentially inviting “a lot of noise & unwanted attention for [Fauci]. They also called us an “illegitimate blog of no credibility,” which is high praise considering the source.

When the story broke in 2021, the NIH scrubbed it from its database and then fed WaPo disinformation: When The Post reported on the controversy in November 2021, the article noted: “The trapped-beagles study does not appear in a database of NIH-funded projects.” The emails show that, while it was removed before the publication of The Post article, the study had been listed in the database for months and was still listed as of the previous month, when Fauci first asked about the controversy. “We need that to be corrected too, ASAP please,” one NIH staffer wrote on Oct. 27. The anxiety level rose as officials realized it would take several days, until Nov. 1, before the project would be removed from the database — where reporters could not then find it. -WaPo.

“..Platkin’s office has announced that it is “reviewing” whether to pull the liquor licenses for Trump golf clubs since he is now convicted of felonies in New York..”:

• New Jersey Announces Investigation into Trump Liquor Licenses (Turley)

Many of us have expressed alarm at the politicization of the criminal justice system in New York by figures such as Attorney General Letitia James and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. It now appears that New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin is angling to get into the lawfare frenzy. The conviction of Trump on 34 felonies has either thrilled or repelled citizens. For many of us, it is a sign of the degradation of our legal system. Even the chief CNN legal analyst has acknowledged that Bragg contorted the law to bring the recent case against former President Donald Trump in an unprecedented prosecution. Yet, the use of the legal system for political purposes is clearly popular in New York where people were literally dancing in the street outside of the courthouse after the recent verdict against Trump.

Now Platkin’s office has announced that it is “reviewing” whether to pull the liquor licenses for Trump golf clubs since he is now convicted of felonies in New York. It appears that lawfare is nothing if not intoxicating for Democratic politicians. According to an article in the Hill, the New Jersey Attorney General’s Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control is “reviewing the impact of President Trump’s conviction” on his liquor licenses for the Trump National Golf Club in Colts Neck, Lamington Farm Club, and Trump National Golf Club Philadelphia in Pine Hill. The latest effort is based on a vague standard governing crimes of “moral turpitude” under New Jersey law: “No license of any class shall be issued to any person under the age of 18 years or to any person who has been convicted of a crime involving moral turpitude. A beneficiary of a trust who is not otherwise disqualified to hold an interest in a license may qualify regardless of age so long as the trustee of the trust qualifies and the trustee shall hold the beneficiary’s interest in trust until the beneficiary is at least the age of majority.”

A “crime of moral turpitude” is a familiar, though dated, standard in American law. I teach the standard in torts as one of the traditional “per se” categories for slander under the common law. It was generally used to denote conduct of immorality or serious offenses to norms of society. New Jersey defines it as including “any offense that carries the possibility of one year in jail and involves acts of baseness, vileness, or depravity in the private and social duties which a man owes to his fellowmen, or to society in general. Even the New Jersey Alcoholic Beverage Control handbook notes that in “some instances, it may be unclear whether a conviction involves an element of moral turpitude.” Yet, Trump has a way to bringing clarity for his critics whenever they must chose between politics and principle.

For most of us, it is hard to see how falsifying business records would constitute “acts of baseness, vileness, or depravity in the private and social duties which a man owes to his fellowmen, or to society in general.” However, for Democrats, it seems that any act by Trump is by definition base, vile, and depraved. The piling on of investigations and charges by Democratic officials has reinforced Trump’s long narrative of a weaponization of the legal system against him and his supporters. Polling shows that most citizens view some of these cases as political prosecutions and that they are having diminishing impact on voter preferences. Yet, they remain thrilling for Democratic voters who lionize prosecutors who come up with novel or unprecedented avenues to hammer Trump or hit his businesses. It does not seem to matter that removing the liquor licenses of these clubs can endanger thousands of jobs of citizens or chill other businesses in considering investments in New York or New Jersey. In the end, the effort is hardly surprising. Lawfare is like binge drinking: the excess is the very measure of its success.

“Crooked Joe Biden’s reign over the Biden Family Criminal Empire is all coming to an end on November 5th, and never again will a Biden sell government access for personal profit..”

• ‘We Are So Proud’: Bidens React To Hunter Verdict (RT)

US President Joe Biden and his wife Jill love their son and intend to respect the judicial process, according to a statement released on Tuesday in response to a Delaware jury finding Hunter Biden guilty of federal gun crimes. Biden’s younger son was charged with three felonies based on a 2018 firearm purchase while being a crack cocaine addict and lying about it on a gun control form. Tuesday’s verdict made him the first son of a sitting president to be convicted in federal court. “Jill and I love our son, and we are so proud of the man he is today,” Biden said in the statement. “I will accept the outcome of this case and will continue to respect the judicial process as Hunter considers an appeal. Jill and I will always be there for Hunter and the rest of our family with our love and support. Nothing will ever change that.”

Joe Biden married Jill Jacobs in 1977, five years after losing his first wife Neilia and their daughter Naomi in a car crash. Hunter and his older brother Beau were seriously injured in the accident. Biden was sworn in as US senator in their hospital room. Beau Biden died of brain cancer in 2015. Hunter later ended up romantically involved with Beau’s widow Hallie. It was Hallie who found the illegally purchased Colt Cobra revolver in Hunter’s truck and threw it in the trash. Believing the gun had been stolen, Hunter set the Secret Service scrambling to recover it. The entire episode was revealed thanks to Hunter Biden’s laptop, which he left in a Delaware repair shop while high on crack and subsequently forgot about it. The laptop’s contents emerged during the 2020 presidential election, but social media companies censored the New York Post for publishing the story while Biden had current and former US intelligence officials denounce it as “Russian disinformation.” The trial confirmed that the laptop and its contents were authentic.

Hunter’s verdict came as his father was scheduled to appear at a gun control event in Washington, DC. At the end of May, a New York jury convicted Biden’s main rival for the presidency, Donald Trump, on 34 counts of “falsifying business records.” The Biden campaign rushed to declare Trump a “convicted felon” and argued no one should vote for him. While some Republicans gloated at the Delaware verdict, many pointed out that Hunter was not brought up on far more serious charges involving foreign bribery or tax evasion. Trump’s campaign called the trial “nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family, which has raked in tens of millions of dollars from China, Russia and Ukraine.” “Crooked Joe Biden’s reign over the Biden Family Criminal Empire is all coming to an end on November 5th, and never again will a Biden sell government access for personal profit,” Trump campaign spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said.

“..a ‘New War of Independence’ can be held aloft before the Israeli public as the metaphysical ‘vision’ of the way ahead..”

• Israel and the Misjudgement of Reality (Alastair Crooke)

On all fronts, the Israeli internal paradigm is fracturing; and externally, the West is itself fissuring, and becoming a pariah on the global stage. The western leaderships’ explicit facilitation of a bloody cleansing of Palestinians has incised the old spectre of ‘Orientalism’ and colonialism onto the skyline. And is gyring the West towards being ‘the world’s untouchable’ (along with Israel). Overall, Israel’s government objective looks to be to converge and then channel – multiple tensions into a wide military escalation disgorgement (a big war) – that somehow would bring a restoration of deterrence. Such a course concomitantly implies that Israel would thus turn its back to western pleas that it somehow act ‘reasonably’. The West mostly defines this ‘reasonableness’ as Israel accepting the chimaera of a passage to ‘normality’ arriving through the Saudi Crown Prince bestowing it, in return for a contrite Israel undoing seven decades of Jewish supremacism (i.e. accepting a Palestinian State).

The core tension within the Western-Israeli calculus is that the U.S. and the EU are moving in one direction – back to the failed Oslo approach – whilst polling underscores Jewish electors firmly marching in the other direction. A recent survey conducted by the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs shows that since 7 October, 79% of all Jewish respondents oppose the establishment of a Palestinian State on 1967 lines (68% were opposed prior to 7 Oct); 74% are opposed even in exchange for normalisation with Saudi Arabia. And reflective of the internal Israeli divide, “only 24% of left-wing voters support a [Palestinian] State without conditions”. In short, as the western institutional leadership clings to the shrinking Israeli secular liberal Left, Israelis as whole (including the young) are moving hard Right. A recent Pew poll shows that 73% of the Israeli public support the military response in Gaza – albeit a third of Israelis complained it had not gone far enough. A plurality of Israelis think Israel should govern the Gaza Strip. And Netanyahu, in the aftermath of the ICC arrest threat, is overtaking Gantz (leader of the National Union) in approval ratings.

It seems that the ‘western consensus’ prefers not to notice these uncomfortable dynamics. Additionally, a separate Israeli divide concerns the purpose of the war: Is it about restoring to Jewish citizens the sense of personal, physical security, which was lost in the wake of 7 Oct? That is to say: Is it the sense of Israel as a redoubt, safe space in a hostile world that is being restored? Or alternatively, is the present struggle one of establishing a fully Judaicised Israel on the ‘Land of Israel’ (i.e. all the land between the river and the sea) the prime objective? This constitutes a key divide. Those who see Israel primarily as the safe redoubt to which Jews could flee in the wake of European holocaust, naturally are more circumspect at the risking of a wider war (i.e. with Hizbullah) – a war that could see the civilian ‘rear’ directly attacked by Hizbullah’s vast missile arsenal. For this constituency, safety is a premium.

On the other hand, a majority of Israelis sees the risk of wider war as inevitable – indeed to be welcomed by many, if the Zionist project is to be fully established on the Land of Israel. This reality may be difficult for secular westerners to grasp, but the 7 October has re-energised the Biblical vision in Israel, rather than excite a surfeit of caution about war, or a desire for rapprochement with Arab States. The point here is that a ‘New War of Independence’ can be held aloft before the Israeli public as the metaphysical ‘vision’ of the way ahead, whilst the Israeli government attempts to pursue the more mundane path of playing the long game, leading to the full military matrix control over the land between the river and the sea, and the removal of populations that will not submit to the Smotrich dispensation of ‘acquiesce or leave’.

Sachs hostages
https://twitter.com/i/status/1800314333576196369

“..a long period of confrontation with the West, led by the US, lies ahead of us for about a generation..”

• How Russia Can Prevent WW3 (Dmitry Trenin)

We can say that a new phase in relations between the world’s nuclear powers has begun. Many of us are still psychologically somewhere in the 1970s and 1980s. That is a kind of comfort zone. Back then, relations between the USSR and the US were based on the two superpowers’ strategic and political parity. In the military-strategic sphere, Washington was forced to deal with Moscow on an equal footing. After 1991, this parity disappeared. For the US, since the 1990s, Russia has been a declining power; throwing its weight around, always reminding itself of its former greatness, snapping back, even dangerous at times – but on a downward spiral. The difficult opening phase of the Ukraine conflict gave the Americans hope that the fields of that country would be the grave of the Russian superpower. They have since sobered up a bit, but equal status between Moscow and Washington is out of the question for them.

This is the main difference between the current state of relations and the ‘golden’ period of the Cold War – the 1960s and early 1980s. And Russia has yet to prove the Americans wrong. As they say, it is always difficult to predict anything, especially the future. But today we have to assume that a long period of confrontation with the West, led by the US, lies ahead of us for about a generation. The future of our country, its position and role in the world, and to a large extent the state of the global system as a whole, will depend on the outcome of this confrontation, the main front of which is not in Ukraine, but within Russia: in the economy, in the social sphere, in science and technology, in culture and art. Internally, because the enemy realises the impossibility of defeating Moscow on the battlefield, but remembers that the Russian state has collapsed more than once as a result of internal turmoil.

This may, as in 1917, be the result of an unsuccessful war. Hence the bet on a protracted conflict in which they know they have more resources. During the Cold War there were five nuclear powers, but then the only real poles were the US and the USSR, plus China with its then small nuclear arsenal. Now Beijing is moving towards (at least) parity with America and Russia, while India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel remain independent players (unlike NATO members Britain and France). The classic Cold War notion of strategic stability – i.e. the absence of incentives for the parties to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike – is not only inadequate but sometimes inapplicable when characterising relations between the great powers today.

Look at Ukraine: Washington is increasing arms supplies to Kiev, encouraging and providing for its provocative attacks on Russia’s strategic infrastructure (early warning stations, strategic airfields), while at the same time proposing Moscow resumes dialogue on strategic stability! In the emerging world order, strategic stability will have to mean the absence of reasons for military conflict (even indirect) between the nuclear powers. This, in turn, will be possible if the powers respect each other’s interests and are ready to solve problems on the basis of equality and the indivisibility of security. Ensuring strategic stability between all nine powers will require enormous efforts and the formation of a fundamentally new world order model, but it (strategic stability in the broad, i.e. real sense of the word) is quite realistic between pairs of states (Russia-China, the US-India, etc.). For Russia, only three of the other eight nuclear powers – the US, Britain and France – remain problematic.

“.. the “collective West” is a minority whose worldview is not shared by the global majority..”

• BRICS Must Prevent New ‘Cold War’ – China (RT)

The BRICS countries should work together to promote peace and prevent the onset of a new Cold War, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said. Speaking at the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod on Monday, Wang stated that some major powers still harbor a “Cold War mentality.” According to the diplomat, this attitude directly contradicts UN Security Council resolutions and undermines the authority of multilateral mechanisms. China is willing to work with Russia to maintain strategic cooperation, respond to external pressures, and promote the sustained progress of bilateral relations, he said. Describing BRICS as an important platform for unity and cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, Wang said the expanded BRICS mechanism will play a crucial role in creating a more just and reasonable global governance system.

He accused the West of the “politicization and excessive securitization” of economic issues, which has resulted in “rampant” unilateral sanctions and technological barriers for countries such as Russia and China. Wang urged the “big BRICS to “leverage” its political significance and transform the group into a new type of multilateral cooperation mechanism. The BRICS grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa was joined by Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates in early 2024. “By expanding our membership, we have ushered in a new era of joint self-reliance for the Global South, with the influence and appeal of BRICS continually rising,” Wang stated.

He added that in a “contest” where some forces promote global multipolarity while others maintain a “unipolar hegemony,” the BRICS countries should “stand on the side of fairness and justice, and make the right choices.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed last week at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that Western governments are “obsessed” with the idea of global dominance. She argued that Western leaders continue to adopt “exceptionalism” at the expense of other ethnic and cultural identities. However, the “collective West” is a minority whose worldview is not shared by the global majority, which has already embraced the concept of multipolarity, Zakharova insisted.

“..that Kubrakov’s ouster had been orchestrated by Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, described as the “de facto head of state.”

• West ‘Losing Trust’ In Ukraine – FT (RT)

Vladimir Zelensky’s recent purges of government officials have damaged the confidence of Ukraine’s foreign supporters, the Financial Times has reported, citing multiple sources in Kiev.The head of the State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development, Mustafa Nayyem, tendered his resignation on Monday. He was followed by officials responsible for procurement and anti-corruption policy.Their departure is the latest in a series of personnel changes “that have shaken the confidence of western partners” in Vladimir Zelensky’s government, according to the FT. “The US and other western partners want a normal, predictable relationship with their Ukrainian counterparts,” one concerned Ukrainian official told the outlet on condition of anonymity. “Right now they are losing trust in Ukraine’s government because of personnel decisions that they do not understand.”

A spree of firings, resignations, and reassignments overseen by Zelensky in recent months has “caused tension” between Kiev and the countries financing Ukraine, six Ukrainian and Western officials told the outlet on condition of anonymity. They also said they had warned the Ukrainian leader about the “disruptive and inexplicable” moves. Nayyem’s resignation letter, seen by FT, said he was leaving due to “constant opposition, resistance and the creation of artificial obstacles” by Prime Minister Denis Shmygal. According to the outlet, Nayyem spoke to two dozen USAID and other Western officials two weeks ago, telling them he expected to be fired.

He urged Kiev’s foreign backers to continue working with his replacement, but one USAID representative was perturbed by changes to “ our most important partnership,” according to an audio recording of the meeting. Last month, Zelensky dismissed Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Alexander Kubrakov. He and Nayyem were in charge of both reconstruction and the building of defensive fortifications. Two Ukrainian officials told FT that Zelensky viewed Kubrakov as “too cozy” with the Americans. Nayyem had warned USAID to expect a government probe into Kubrakov. FT reported last week that Kubrakov’s ouster had been orchestrated by Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, described as the “de facto head of state.”

“This situation is really bad for [the] perception of the Ukrainian government and Ukraine generally,” Gleb Vishlinsky, the executive director at the Center for Economic Strategy in Kiev, told FT. He added that the firing of Kubrakov and Nayyem’s resignation, “build an image of weak and unpredictable governance.” Kubrakov’s sacking in particular attracted “backlash” from the US and its allies. The US, German, French, and EU ambassadors in Kiev posted messages of support for the minister on May 9 and complained about his departure to Shmygal four days later. A meeting that was supposed to be about the dire condition of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure reportedly turned into an argument about the absence of Kubrakov and Nayyem.

” Hungary is scheduled to take over the presidency in July.”

• Eastern NATO Club May Kick Hungary Out For Dissent – FT (RT)

A club of Eastern European and Baltic NATO nations is considering forcing out Hungary, a member state, for refusing to take the same stance on Ukraine, the Financial Times has reported, citing sources. The Bucharest Nine was founded in 2015 and includes Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Senior officials from the regional group regularly meet to coordinate their foreign and security policy; a gathering of its leaders is scheduled to take place in Riga on Tuesday. Hungary, however, may be expelled from the club over its refusal to endorse joint statements of support for sending military aid to Ukraine and otherwise support Kiev in its confrontation with Moscow, insider sources told The Financial Times.

”We are likely meeting in this format for the last time,” one of the people familiar with the situation told the newspaper, calling the discussions “very serious.” All members of the Bucharest Nine were either Warsaw Pact nations or Soviet republics during the Cold War, and joined NATO during its expansion after the USSR collapsed. Hungary, however, is at odds with the other countries over the Ukraine conflict. Budapest opposes the continued arming of Kiev, saying this only prolongs the hostilities, and advocates for immediate peace talks instead. It is also highly skeptical of Western promises to eventually bring Ukraine into NATO and the EU. Supporters of Kiev have branded the government of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban “pro-Russian” over the position, which he says is guided by his nation’s interests.

A similar push to ostracize Hungary is reportedly underway within the EU, where some members have called for suspending its voting rights. Belgium, which holds the rotating presidency in the European Council, believes that the future of the bloc may depend on it, Politico reported last week. ”This is a moment of truth,” Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib told the news outlet, referring to the so-called Article 7 proceedings against Hungary. “If we go all the way with this mechanism, it must work. If it doesn’t work, we have to reform it. That’s the future of the European Union.” Hungary is scheduled to take over the presidency in July.

Because they know what Russia thinks about that.

• US ‘Flirting With Neo-Nazis’ – Kremlin (RT)

Washington will stop at nothing, including the use of neo-Nazis, to damage Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, following a US decision to lift a ban on supplying weapons to Ukraine’s Azov Brigade. The unit has notoriously welcomed into its ranks people who espouse ultranationalist and neo-Nazi ideologies, and has been described by the Western press as a magnet for such individuals from across the world. On Monday, the US Department of State cleared the brigade to receive American military assistance, stating that it found no evidence of human rights violations by the group. “This sudden change of stance by Washington proves that [US officials] would stoop to anything in their attempts to suppress Russia, using the Ukrainian people as a tool. They are even fine with flirting with neo-Nazis,” Peskov told journalists during a media briefing. Azov was founded as a volunteer battalion of Ukrainian nationalists in 2014 by white supremacist Andrey Biletsky.

People who came to power in Kiev following the Western-backed armed coup that year used Azov fighters in an attempt to violently quash a rebellion against the new government in the east. The battalion was incorporated into Ukraine’s National Guard the following year. In 2018, the US Congress banned the delivery of arms to the Azov Brigade, citing its ties to neo-Nazi ideology. Since the outbreak of conflict with Russia, Ukrainian officials and Azov members worked to rebrand the unit. Its insignia, which originally paid homage to Nazi symbology, was replaced with less offensive imagery, and its messaging changed to claim that the unit had distanced itself from its roots. Some former and serving US officials, such as ex-ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, helped Azov’s efforts by organizing events for them on American soil. However, Moscow insists that the nature of the unit has not significantly changed. It remains an “ultranationalist armed group,” Peskov stated.

Not much left of Zelensky’s plan. Wonder why.

• Ukraine ‘Peace Conference’ Will Not Urge Withdrawal Of Russian Troops (RT)

A draft joint statement prepared for an upcoming ‘peace conference’ on Ukraine in Switzerland will likely fall short of demanding the withdrawal of Russian forces from all territories claimed by Kiev, NHK has reported. The document also omits any mention of restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the Japanese news organization said on Tuesday after reviewing the draft statement. The agenda will reportedly address only three out of the ten points promoted by Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, such as the safety of nuclear power plants, food security, the release of prisoners and the return of children evacuated by Russia from the conflict zone, NHK’s English-language news site said.

Zelensky’s topline demands when they were first floated in late 2022 included a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from all territories that Ukraine considers its own, that Russia pays reparations and submits its officials to war tribunals, all dismissed out of hand by Moscow. The points have been dropped from the draft joint statement because it took into account the stance of some Asian and Middle Eastern states that maintain ties with Russia, diplomatic sources told NHK. The draft also states that all parties should take part in the search for peace, and stresses the importance of Russia’s participation in future discussions, according to article. Russia has not been invited to the international gathering, due to take place on Saturday and Sunday at the Burgenstock Resort near Lucerne. Zelensky opposed the presence of a Russian delegation at the Swiss-hosted conference, saying it would enable Moscow to derail Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told RT earlier that it was “absurd” to hold a meeting on settling the conflict between Russia and Ukraine without Moscow attending. “This conference is completely without prospects,” he stressed.The Russian authorities instantly rejected Zelensky’s ten-point plan as “unacceptable” when it was first presented. According to Moscow, the proposal disregards the actual situation on the ground, and is a sign of Kiev’s unwillingness to engage in negotiations.Last week, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin reiterated that Moscow is ready to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis, but stressed that “fantasies” cannot be a basis for peace talks. “All negotiations are based on either military defeat, or military victory. Of course, we will win,” Putin said.

Biden still
https://twitter.com/i/status/1800361106520604994

Elon Xmas

The story behind Elon Musk firing 80% of Twitter's staff pic.twitter.com/50KkcDTPYx

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) June 10, 2024

Elon AI1

"I have a concern with companies like Google, Gemini, OpenAI & Meta that they are not maximally truth seeking. Their A.I. are pandering to political correctness and are being trained to lie.

The safest thing for AI is to be maximally truth seeking even if the truth is unpopular" pic.twitter.com/XPPdMSntX9

— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) June 11, 2024

Eat

They all patiently wait for their turn to eat! pic.twitter.com/SdwiZJjI6I

— B&S (@_B___S) June 11, 2024

Jaguar

Nature is awesome pic.twitter.com/gvnYVnKyY4

— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) June 10, 2024

Kind

There is no bigger
Or more important lesson
To teach our children
Than to be kind. pic.twitter.com/cCVMcPKILf

— Ramblings (@ramblingsloa) June 11, 2024

Friendship
https://twitter.com/i/status/1800223297256489410

Cheetah
https://twitter.com/i/status/1800570165580669162

Blue whale

Blue Whale being chased by Orcas. pic.twitter.com/Vw1nN5M7KC

— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) June 11, 2024

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US Plans Hybrid War vs Wagner In Africa

May 122023

May 12, 2023 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 1:25 pm Finance Tagged with: Africa, CAR, Congo, France, hybrid war, Kremlin, New Cold War, Wagner 6 Responses »

Jean-Michel Basquiat In this case 1983

Andrew Korybko:

Politico published a very detailed piece on Sunday about how “To counter Russia in Africa, Biden deploys a favored strategy”, which cites four unnamed US officials with knowledge of their country’s plan for waging Hybrid War against Wagner in Africa. Just like the French one that was reported by Axios last October, which was analyzed at the time here, the US’ also focuses a lot on information warfare. Taken together, they prove that the West intends to turn Africa into a major battleground in the New Cold War.

According to Politico’s sources, “The aim (of the latest effort) is to highlight for African officials how working with Wagner is likely to sow chaos in the long term despite its promises to bring peace and security to countries facing political turmoil and violence…it underscores the degree to which the Biden administration believes Wagner — and the Kremlin — pose a long term threat to U.S. interests on the continent.”

In other words, it builds upon the French’s fearmongering about Wagner’s “Democratic Security” services (counter-Hybrid War tactics and strategies that were earlier elaborated upon here), but openly acknowledges that these narratives are being spread in pursuit of the US’ own interests. This candid admission inadvertently discredits one official’s claim that “they create more terrorists than they actually eliminate”, which the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali know for a fact isn’t true.

The only terrorists “created” in those countries after their cooperation with Wagner are the ones clandestinely armed by America and France on the pretext of them supposedly being ‘freedom fighters’, but who in reality function as the West’s anti-Russian proxies there. Once again, the CAR authorities know this for a fact, which makes one wonder why the US would waste its time spewing this information warfare narrative to them like Politico reported that they’ve already attempted to do.

This curious question is answered when it’s later revealed in the article that “The idea is that if Wagner is seen as disrupting the flow of trade and investment, it could drive a wedge between Beijing, a long-time investor in Africa, and Moscow — an alliance that has only strengthened in recent months and continues to concern Washington.” Of relevance, the West ridiculously claimed in late March that Wagner allegedly slaughtered Chinese miners in the CAR, which was analyzed here right after it started circulating.

This adds crucial context to the US’ Hybrid War on Wagner in Africa since it shows that disinformation is being relied upon in a desperate attempt to divide the Sino-Russo Entente. That’s a wishful thinking fantasy if there ever was one since these two’s efforts on the continent complement one another: China’s game-changing Belt & Road Initiative investments can actually be protected from Western-connected Hybrid War threats via Russia’s “Democratic Security” services provided by Wagner.

The other countries that have been on the receiving end of this propaganda campaign are Burkina Faso, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Rwanda, each of which is unlikely to bite the West’s bait. Regarding the first, its interim leader declared last week that his country is in a “strategic alliance” with Russia, while the second expelled the German Ambassador for meddling instead of the Russian one early last month after the US falsely claimed that Wagner was plotting a coup there.

As for the DRC and Rwanda, those two are presently engaged in their own Hybrid War with one another over the former’s resource-rich eastern region whose rebels are allegedly backed by the latter, with the case compellingly being made here that France is exploiting their conflict for divide-and-rule purposes. Furthermore, Russian-Congolese ties have only strengthened in recent months despite the US’ reported sharing of anti-Wagner disinformation, while Russia and Rwanda defended the CAR’s capital in late 2020.

Although Politico didn’t report that related falsehoods were shared with Sudan, they nevertheless devoted part of their article to discussing Wagner’s alleged activities there, which aims to advance America’s latest fake news campaign attempting to pin the blame for its ongoing conflict on Russia. The motivations behind them doing so were recently explained here, which touched on the intent to have Sudan cut Russia/Wagner off from the CAR together with assembling a regional coalition against it.

The abovementioned assessment of the US’ motivations was just confirmed in Politico’s piece after they admitted that “American officials have shared intelligence specifically related to Wagner’s business operations in the [CAR] and shared it not only with local officials but also officials from neighboring countries with an interest in removing Wagner from the region.” Considering the military context and prior disinformation provocation, it’s likely that Chad is the primary target of this influence operation.

Its envisaged role as the vanguard of the West’s Hybrid War on Wagner in Africa was analyzed in the hyperlink that was shared a few paragraphs above regarding that country’s expulsion of the German Ambassador instead of the Russian one after the US falsely claimed that Wagner was plotting a coup there. Intrepid readers should review it if they’re interested since repeating the pertinent points in this piece would be redundant, but it’s enough for casual readers to simply know that this is the US’ goal.

All told, while America is ramping up its operations to counter Wagner’s growing popularity across Africa, it lacks the credibility to advance its goal through information warfare alone as proven by its cited failures in Burkina Faso, the CAR, Chad, the DRC, Rwanda, and Sudan. This observation strongly suggests that it’ll therefore increasingly resort to kinetic measures like arming terrorist groups under the pretext of them supposedly being ‘freedom fighters’, which could even result in a false flag attack against Chad.

This regional power is the primary target of the US’ efforts since it urgently requires someone on the continent to serve as the vanguard of its campaign. Chad’s expulsion of the German Ambassador instead of the Russian one after the US claimed that Wagner was plotting a coup there, however, shows that N’Djamena doesn’t believe a word that Washington says about Russia. In a desperate last-ditch attempt to trick Chad into playing this proxy role, it might thus launch a false flag attack against it from the CAR.

That wouldn’t be too difficult to do either since large parts of this country still remain outside the control of the Russian-backed authorities, with those lawless regions being the realm of jointly supported American-French terrorists who masquerade as rebels. Having already preconditioned the public to expect a supposedly Wagner-driven coup against Chad from the CAR via the false report that the US previously shared and just reminded everyone of in Politico’s piece, this scenario cannot be discounted.

To be clear, this doesn’t mean that it will definitely happen, nor that Chad would fall for this provocation. Even so, there’s still a chance that this sequence of events unfolds, in which case this regional military power would be manipulated into serving as the US’ vanguard in its Hybrid War on Wagner in Africa. This could take the form of Chad intervening in CAR and/or against the allegedly Wagner-aligned Rapid Security Forces in Sudan’s “deep state” war, both possibilities of which would be very destabilizing.

Observers should therefore closely monitor this latest front of the New Cold War for any signs that events are moving in this direction, while Russian and Chadian military-security officials should immediately enter into close contact in order to preemptively avert the US’ divide-and-rule plot against them. It would be mutually detrimental if America’s potential provocation succeeds, which could plunge this part of Africa into a protracted conflict that risks reversing its multipolar progress of the past year.

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India Takes A Leading Role In De-Dollarization

Mar 112023

March 11, 2023 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 1:15 pm Finance Tagged with: De-Dollarization, diversify, India, New Cold War, oil, Russia, sanctions, Soros, trifurcation 4 Responses »

Henri Matisse Young Woman at the Window, Sunset 1921

Andrew Korybko:

Reuters reported on Wednesday that “India’s Oil Deals With Russia Dent Decades-Old Dollar Dominance”, which informed their audience that the growing trend of those two using national or third-party currencies like the UAE’s is something significant for everyone to pay attention to. To that outlet’s credit, it also reminded readers that IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath foresaw in the month after Russia’s special operation began that the West’s sanctions “could erode the dollar’s dominance”.

Lo and behold, that’s precisely what happened, with India of all countries accelerating de-dollarization through its non-dollar-denominated energy deals with Russia. About them, Russia has since become India’s largest supplier over the past year and now provides a whopping 35% of that country’s needs, which is also the world’s third-largest oil importer and fifth-largest economy. Their new energy ties, and particularly the growing de-dollarization dimension of their deals, are thus globally important.

None of what was just described is driven by any anti-American animus on India’s part since everything is purely motivated by the pursuit of that country’s objective national interests. Delhi had no choice but to gradually diversify away from dollar-denominated energy deals with Moscow due to Washington’s illegal sanctions. Its multipolar leadership wasn’t going to let the world’s most populous country slip into an economic crisis just to please the US by eschewing the import of discounted oil from Russia.

By defying American pressure upon it to unilaterally concede on those aforementioned objective national interests, India’s economy ended up growing at twice the pace of China’s, which contributed to catapulting that country to the forefront of the global systemic transition to multipolarity. Amidst the impending trifurcation of International Relations, India is now poised to de facto lead the Global South in helping fellow developing countries balance between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente.

Had India complied with the US’ illegal sanctions, then the New York Times wouldn’t have recently admitted that those restrictions failed just like the West’s efforts to “isolate” Russia did as well. It was largely due to that South Asian Great Power’s truly independent grand strategy that this latest phase of the New Cold War didn’t decisively end in the Golden Billion’s victory over Russia and the restoration of unipolarity, which would have been detrimental to India and every other developing country’s interests.

India therefore changed the course of history by remaining committed to the pursuit of its objective national interests, which to remind everyone, aren’t driven by any desire to harm the interests of third parties like the US. Its leading role in de-dollarization via its increasing number of non-dollar-denominated energy deals with Russia is also reshaping the global financial system by reducing that currency’s prior dominance and thus leading to a more multipolar state of affairs for everyone.

Even the US itself seems to have finally accepted that it can’t reverse this trend, which is evidenced by former Indian Ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal recently telling TASS that “Lately, the discourse from Washington has changed and India is no longer being asked to stop buying oil from Russia. In a recent visit to India, the US Treasury Secretary actually said that India can buy discounted oil from Russia as much as it wants so long as western tankers and insurance companies are not used.”

Nevertheless, radical liberal–globalist ideologues like Color Revolution mastermind George Soros are still desperately clinging to the dream of restoring the US’ rapidly declining unipolar hegemony, hence why he de facto declared Hybrid War against India during the Munich Security Conference last month. It remains unclear whether he and his network have enough support in the Western Establishment to advance that regime change agenda, but his threat is still worrisome and should be taken seriously.

Reuters’ latest report about India’s role in accelerating de-dollarization might fuel interest among likeminded “Western Exceptionalists” in supporting his de facto Hybrid War against that country so observers should closely monitor related developments in order to assess whether this happens. In any case, those who sincerely support multipolarity should loudly applaud India for its indispensable role in comprehensively facilitating this process, especially its financial dimension as described in this analysis.

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Sanctions Made India Indispensable To The Global Energy Market

Feb 092023

February 9, 2023 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 5:11 pm Finance Tagged with: crude, Golden Billion, India, New Cold War, principled neutrality, refiners, Russia, supply lines 6 Responses »

Anthony Van Dyck Self portrait with sunflower 1632

More from Andrew Korybko on a interesting theme: how the sanctions on Russia created a whole new energy supply line.

Andrew Korybko:

Indian media revealed in mid-January that their country had been processing and re-exporting discounted Russian oil to the West, including the US, in a move that discredited the spirit of that de facto New Cold War bloc’s anti-Russian sanctions. Most observers brushed off those reports since they went against their worldview wherein it was taken for granted that the US-led West’s Golden Billion wouldn’t ever relieve pressure on Russia by having India serve as the middleman in their oil trade.

According to an expert quoted by Bloomberg in their latest report titled “Oil’s New Map: How India Turns Russia Crude Into The West’s Fuel”, “India’s willingness to buy more Russian crude at a steeper discount is a feature, not a bug, in the plan of Western nations to impose economic pain on Putin without imposing it on themselves.” Another one was cited as saying that “US treasury officials have two main goals: keep the market well supplied, and deprive Russia of oil revenue.”

That other expert added that “They are aware that Indian and Chinese refiners can earn bigger margins by buying discounted Russian crude and exporting products at market prices. They’re fine with that.” This insight from Bloomberg, which is held in high regard as one of the world’s premier business outlets, completely shifts the paradigm through which observers interpret the energy dimension of the Golden Billion’s anti-Russian sanctions.

The “official narrative” up until this point was that they were aimed bankrupting the Kremlin in the hopes that it would immediately stop its ongoing special operation and perhaps even “Balkanize” if the desired economic collapse catalyzed uncontrollable socio-political processes like during the late 1980s. The New York Times recently admitted that the anti-Russian sanctions failed, however, pointing to reputable evidence that this targeted state’s economy has stopped contracting and even began to grow.

In the face of these “politically inconvenient” facts, it was thus foreseeable in hindsight that the “official narrative” would have to more comprehensively change in an attempt for the Golden Billion to “save face” before its people, ergo Bloomberg’s latest contribution to this perception management end. The public is now being gaslighted into thinking that the sanctions were never meant to bankrupt the Kremlin, stop its special operation, or “Balkanize” Russia, but just erode a little bit of its revenue.

The reality is that the outcome reported upon by Bloomberg is indeed a “bug” and not a “feature” like they’re claiming in hindsight out of desperation to revise history for self-interested soft power reasons. The Golden Billion didn’t fully forecast the lasting consequences of their sanctions since they naively took for granted that they’d immediately bankrupt the Kremlin, stop its special operation, and subsequently “Balkanize” Russia, none of which ultimately transpired.

They can’t rescind their unilateral economic restrictions though since that would be an unprecedented soft power victory for Russia, hence why they began putting feelers out across the market to explore alternative workarounds for ensuring the reliability of their imports, albeit at a premium. India’s pragmatic policy of principled neutrality towards the Ukrainian Conflict in full defiance of US demands upon it to “isolate” Russia ended up being an inadvertent godsend for the West in this context.

Had that globally significant Great Power not ramped up its purchase of Russian oil to the extent that it did in order to withstand the systemic shocks caused by the West’s sanctions and which destabilized dozens of fellow Global South states, then there wouldn’t be excess supply for re-export. After helping them meet their needs, which wasn’t part of some “5D chess master plan” between India and the West but the organic outcome of how events unfolded, they reduced their pressure upon it as a quid pro quo.

It was difficult to explain late last year why the US noticeably began reducing pressure on India to distance itself from Russia, but it was thought at the time that this was simply a delayed recognition of geostrategic reality and was being done for pragmatism’s sake to retain their strategic ties. Now, however, it appears as though India’s indispensable role in the global energy market as the middleman in facilitating the now-taboo Russian-Western energy trade played a role in the US’ policy recalibration.

From this insight, it can be concluded that India succeeded not only in resisting US-led Western pressure upon it vis-à-vis its relations with Russia, but also unwittingly ended up doing the Golden Billion a favor in the process by placing itself in the position to ensure the reliability of their energy imports. This observation speaks to its newfound role as the kingmaker in the New Cold War, which will imbue it with increasingly more influence within the global systemic transition the longer that this struggle continues.

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Debt Rattle March 21 2019

Mar 212019

March 21, 2019 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:37 am Finance Tagged with: assault weapons, Brexit, extension, Fed, kale, loneliness, markets, MMT, New Cold War, New Zealand, pesticides, Ukraine, William Blum 12 Responses »

Pablo Picasso Bathers with ball 3 1928

• Why The Fed Keeps Propping Up The Market (Colombo)

• Fed’s New Balance Sheet Plan: Get Rid of MBS (WS)

• EU Will Only Back Short Brexit Delay If May’s Deal Passes First (G.)

• Remain Would Win Second Brexit Referendum Clearly, Poll Indicates (Ind.)

• Theresa May: Don’t Blame Me For Brexit Crisis, Blame MPs (G.)

• MPs Furious After May Blames Them For Crisis (Ind.)

• New Zealand Bans All Assault Weapons Immediately (AP)

• Stagnant Capitalism (Varoufakis)

• Exposing the Myth of MMT (Rickards)

• Australia Construction Slowdown A Major Threat To The Economy (ABC.au)

• As Russia Collusion Fades, Ukrainian Plot To Help Clinton Emerges (Solomon)

• Sucking Liberals into a New Cold War (William Blum)

• Loneliness Estimated To Shorten A Person’s Life By 15 Years (SciAm)

• Kale Is Now One Of The Most Pesticide-Contaminated Vegetables (CNBC)

Yeah, no, more Fed crap and comments about markets and I’ve had enough. A market should be recognized as an action, a process, not as a thing or an object. And the action is price discovery. If that is not taking place you don’t have a market. Anything the Fed props up is not a market. One necessary aspect of price discovery is honesty, people must believe they’re not being tricked. With the way people talk about this now, the language they use risks losing all meaning. Enough already, and that goes for Jesse Colombo too. Who also posted this one on Twitter, which is a lot more relevant than his article. But that’s just me.

• Why The Fed Keeps Propping Up The Market (Colombo)

The bull market of the past decade since the Great Recession has been an unusual one: despite all of the economic damage that occurred during the global financial crisis and rising risks (including global debt rising by $75 trillion), it has been the longest bull market in history. The explanation for this paradox is simple: it’s not an organic bull market because the Fed and other central banks keep stepping in to prop up the market every time it stumbles. Though the Fed has two official mandates (maintaining stable consumer prices and maximizing employment), it has taken on the unofficial third mandate of supporting and boosting the stock market since the Great Recession.

The chart below, which was inspired by market strategist Sven Henrich, shows how the Fed or other central banks have stepped in with more monetary stimulus (quantitative easing, promises to keep interest rates low, etc.) every time the S&P 500 has stumbled over the past decade:

An economy that is growing at 2%, inflation near zero, and Central banks globally required to continue dumping trillions of dollars into the financial system just to keep it afloat is not an economy we should be aspiring to. But despite commentary the financial system has been ‘put back together again,’ then why are Central Banks acting?

Get rid of them or they’ll blow up America.

• Fed’s New Balance Sheet Plan: Get Rid of MBS (WS)

The Fed has a new plan for what to do with its balance sheet and today announced several major components of it:

• Begin tapering the “runoff” of Treasury securities in May. • End the runoff of Treasury securities on September 30. • Continue shedding mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at the current maximum of $20 billion a month, essentially until their gone. • After September, reinvest MBS principal payments into Treasury securities. • Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference that the balance sheet will by then be “a bit above $3.5 trillion.” • The balance sheet will remain at this level even as the economy grows, thus slowly shrinking in relationship to GDP. • The Fed may sell MBS outright to speed up the process of getting rid of them. • No decision has been made on the delicate issue of the maturity composition of the balance sheet – which would require buying short-term bills for the first time in years to replace longer-term notes and bonds.

The stated balance-sheet doctrine now is that the Fed wants to have sufficient reserves (money that banks deposit at the Fed) to conduct monetary policy efficiently. The interest it pays the banks on those reserves is one of its major tools to manage short-term interest rates.

It’s not even the main trump card the EU has.

• EU Will Only Back Short Brexit Delay If May’s Deal Passes First (G.)

Donald Tusk has put a no-deal Brexit back on the table by saying EU leaders will only agree to a short delay if MPs back Theresa May’s deal next week, on a day of high drama in Brussels and London. After belatedly receiving the prime minister’s formal letter requesting a three-month extension of article 50, and taking a late afternoon phone call with her, the European council president admitted that success appeared “frail, even illusory” on the eve of Thursday’s summit. The German foreign minister, Heiko Maas, tweeted: “The letter from Theresa May has not solved any problem yet. If the European council [summit of leaders] is to decide on an extension of the deadline for Britain, we would like to know what is the concrete purpose.”

But Tusk said the EU would seek until the very last moment to avoid the UK crashing out without a deal and show “patience and goodwill” despite the “Brexit fatigue” in the capitals. The EU27’s heads of state or government would be likely to agree in principle at the summit on Thursday to an extension up to 23 May or 30 June, and sign it off without needing to meet next week should May be able to find a majority in the Commons at the third time of asking, he said. The European commission is insisting that an extension beyond the date of the European elections on 23 May would require British MEPs to be elected, although others believe there is little risk as long as the UK has left by 1 July when the parliament formally convenes.

“In the light of the consultations that I have conducted over the past days I believe that a short extension will be possible but to be conditional on a positive vote on the withdrawal agreement in the House of Commons,” Tusk said. “A question remains open as to the duration of such an extension. Prime Minister May’s proposal of the 30 June, which has its merits, creates a series of questions of a legal and political nature. Leaders will discuss this tomorrow.”

The frustration and “tension”, as one senior EU diplomat described it, was made clear by the French foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, who told the French parliament on Wednesday afternoon that Paris was willing to block an extension. He said there were only two ways to leave the EU: ratify the withdrawal agreement or a no-deal exit. If parliament did not ratify the withdrawal agreement “the central scenario is a no-deal exit”, he said, adding: “We’re ready.” He stated that if May could not present “sufficient guarantees of the credibility of her strategy” that would lead to the extension being refused and a no-deal exit.

But it would be undemocratic?!

• Remain Would Win Second Brexit Referendum Clearly, Poll Indicates (Ind.)

Nearly two-thirds of people would vote to remain in the EU rather than for Theresa May’s deal if a referendum offering those options were called, a snap poll by YouGov has found. Sixty-one per cent of the population would vote to remain while 39 per cent would opt for the existing deal, However, if people were asked in a public vote whether they would prefer to remain in the EU or leave with no deal in place, Remain would still win, though by the smaller margin of 57-43 per cent. It shows a 22-point lead for Remain over Ms May’s deal, or a 14-point lead for Remain over no deal at all.

The poll, carried out on behalf of the Put it to the People campaign, comes as second referendum expectations have risen. [..] A march in support of a Final Say second referendum takes place on in central London on Saturday and is expected to attract hundreds of thousands of protesters. Meanwhile a “Leave means Leave” protest, also known as the “Brexit betrayal march”, is underway with Brexit supporters walking for two weeks from Sunderland to London demanding the UK leaves the EU on 29 March.

Carefully crafted utter panic.

• Theresa May: Don’t Blame Me For Brexit Crisis, Blame MPs (G.)

Theresa May is facing a furious backlash from her own backbenchers and calls for her resignation after she blamed squabbling MPs for delaying Brexit. In a defiant statement on Wednesday night she told the British public: “I am on your side,” and now hopes to force her deal through parliament next week at the third time of asking. Less than an hour earlier, she had been warned in a private meeting with Conservative MPs that her bid to delay leaving could end up losing her even more votes from her own party.

“She is going into an ever narrower cul-de-sac,” said one former minister. Speaking in Downing Street in a televised address, May said the three-month Brexit delay she had earlier in the day formally requested from EU27 leaders was “a matter of great personal regret for me” – and she would not countenance a longer extension of article 50. With just nine days to go before Britain is due to leave the EU, she laid the blame for the crisis squarely at the door of parliament.

“Of this I am absolutely sure: you the public have had enough.”

What she missed is that it’s her they’re tired of.

• MPs Furious After May Blames Them For Crisis (Ind.)

MPs have called Theresa May “irresponsible”, “disgraceful” and “toxic” after she blamed them for for the UK’s impending failure to leave the EU on 29 March. Labour’s Wes Streeting accused the prime minister of putting MPs’ lives in danger with an “incendiary” address. Ms May used a Downing Street speech to criticise the very people she needs to get her Brexit deal through the Commons at the third time of asking, telling voters that she was “sure” that “you, the public, have had enough” of political games. She said: “You’re tired of the infighting, you’re tired of the political games and the arcane procedural rows, tired of MPs talking about nothing else but Brexit when you have real concerns about our children’s schools, our National Health Service, knife crime. “You want this stage of the Brexit process to be over and done with. I agree. I am on your side.”

It can be done. Just not in the US, too many guns there already.

• New Zealand Bans All Assault Weapons Immediately (AP)

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says New Zealand is immediately banning sales of military style semi-automatic rifles and high-capacity magazines like the weapons used in last Friday’s attacks on two Christchurch mosques. Ardern announced the ban Thursday and said it would be followed by legislation to be introduced next month. She said the man arrested in the attacks had purchased his weapons legally and enhanced their capacity by using 30-round magazines “done easily through a simple online purchase.” [..] The New Zealand government is asking all owners of assault weapons or now-banned attachments to report them to the government in the next two days before turning them in.

I think manipulation by central banks is a much bigger problem than stagnation.

• Stagnant Capitalism (Varoufakis)

When the Great Depression followed the 1929 stock-market crash, almost everyone acknowledged that capitalism was unstable, unreliable, and prone to stagnation. In the decades that followed, however, that perception changed. Capitalism’s postwar revival, and especially the post-Cold War rush to financialized globalization, resurrected faith in markets’ self-regulating abilities. Today, a long decade after the 2008 global financial crisis, this touching faith once again lies in tatters as capitalism’s natural tendency toward stagnation reasserts itself. The rise of the racist right, the fragmentation of the political center, and mounting geopolitical tensions are mere symptoms of capitalism’s miasma.

A balanced capitalist economy requires a magic number, in the form of the prevailing real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate. It is magic because it must kill two very different birds, flying in two very different skies, with a single stone. First, it must balance employers’ demand for waged labor with the available labor supply. Second, it must equalize savings and investment. If the prevailing real interest rate fails to balance the labor market, we end up with unemployment, precariousness, wasted human potential, and poverty. If it fails to bring investment up to the level of savings, deflation sets in and feeds back into even lower investment.

It takes a heroic disposition to assume that this magic number exists or that, even if it does, our collective endeavors will result in an actual real interest rate close to it. How do free marketeers convince themselves that there exists a single real interest rate (say, 2%) that would inspire investors to funnel all existing savings into productive investments and spur employers to hire everyone who wishes to work at the prevailing wage?

I’ve kept my distance from the discussion, but this is nice.

• Exposing the Myth of MMT (Rickards)

When critics hear that a Green New Deal could potentially cost something like $97 trillion, or proposals for Medicare for all, free tuition, free child care or guaranteed basic income, they say, “That all sounds nice, but we just can’t afford it.” That’s their main argument — that no matter how desirable these programs might be in theory, we just can’t afford them. Most criticism of MMT falls along those lines. Even the Keynesians like those I mentioned earlier, who generally favor large amounts of government spending to stimulate the economy, have come out against MMT. Besides that claim that we can’t afford it, even the Keynesians say MMT would be highly inflationary. If you printed that much money and start handing it out to people, demand would outstrip the output capacity of the economy and you’d get high inflation.

But the MMT advocates have an answer to these objections. They’re not the least bit intimidated by critics who say we can’t afford it. They say, “Yes, we can, and Modern Monetary Theory proves it. Just print the money and monetize the debt. Japanese debt is 2.5 times the United States’ debt, and China’s is higher than ours.” They haven’t collapsed, so we can take on far more debt than we have today. Furthermore, QE did not create much inflation. In fact, the Fed would like to see more inflation than it has. It still can’t produce a sustained 2% inflation rate after all these years. You might think the argument is ridiculous. After all, do we really want to become Japan? But in important ways, the MMT crowd has the upper hand in the debate.

After 27 years, Australia is finally hitting a recession.

• Australia Construction Slowdown A Major Threat To The Economy (ABC.au)

The property market upheaval brings billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s oft-quoted piece of wisdom to mind: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” We are witnessing more naked developers as half-finished projects dot the landscape of our major cities. As the year progresses, many more operators who’ve pushed the boundaries will join them. “Areas of oversupply will see a bit more chaos in the next six to twelve months,” Scott Gray-Spencer, local head of capital markets at the global real estate firm CBRE, told ABC’s The Business. Mr Gray-Spencer sees areas more than 10 kilometres from the city centres of Sydney and Melbourne, and parts of Queensland, as the most vulnerable.

Property investors, who were major targets of the crackdown, accounted for almost 50 per cent of mortgages two to three years ago. They have largely left the market and political uncertainty may keep them on the sidelines for longer as they await the outcome of the looming federal election. Should Labor win, it’s likely investors will wait to see how its plans to curb the negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions pan out. Even though Labor’s proposed negative gearing changes will not affect new housing, investors may still be worried about price growth because the next buyer is unable to negatively gear. So it could be some time before developers see an important group of buyers return in force. If the banks don’t stop them, the less generous tax laws might.

A half-finished apartment block in Cronulla sits idle while it waits for a buyer. (ABC News: John Gunn)

At first sight it looked like a parody.

• As Russia Collusion Fades, Ukrainian Plot To Help Clinton Emerges (Solomon)

After nearly three years and millions of tax dollars, the Trump-Russia collusion probe is about to be resolved. Emerging in its place is newly unearthed evidence suggesting another foreign effort to influence the 2016 election — this time, in favor of the Democrats. Ukraine’s top prosecutor divulged in an interview aired Wednesday on Hill.TV that he has opened an investigation into whether his country’s law enforcement apparatus intentionally leaked financial records during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign about then-Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort in an effort to sway the election in favor of Hillary Clinton.

The leak of the so-called “black ledger” files to U.S. media prompted Manafort’s resignation from the Trump campaign and gave rise to one of the key allegations in the Russia collusion probe that has dogged Trump for the last two and a half years. Ukraine Prosecutor General Yurii Lutsenko’s probe was prompted by a Ukrainian parliamentarian’s release of a tape recording purporting to quote a top law enforcement official as saying his agency leaked the Manafort financial records to help Clinton’s campaign. The parliamentarian also secured a court ruling that the leak amounted to “an illegal intrusion into the American election campaign,” Lutsenko told me.

Lutsenko said the tape recording is a serious enough allegation to warrant opening a probe, and one of his concerns is that the Ukrainian law enforcement agency involved had frequent contact with the Obama administration’s U.S. embassy in Kiev at the time. “Today we will launch a criminal investigation about this and we will give legal assessment of this information,” Lutsenko told me.

A memorial service was held on Sunday in Washington for William Blum, a former State Department official whose disillusionment with the Vietnam War turned him into a fierce critic of U.S. foreign policy. Blum educated a generation of Americans about the rapacious aims of the U.S. abroad, debunking the myth of Washington’s good intentions for the peoples of the world. Blum died on December 9, 2018.

• Sucking Liberals into a New Cold War (William Blum)

Cold War Number One: 70 years of daily national stupidity. Cold War Number Two: Still in its youth, but just as stupid. “He said he absolutely did not meddle in our election. He did not do what they are saying he did.” – President Trump re Russian President Vladimir Putin after their meeting in Vietnam. [Washington Post, Nov.e 12, 2017] Putin later added that he knew “absolutely nothing” about Russian contacts with Trump campaign officials. “They can do what they want, looking for some sensation. But there are no sensations.” Numerous U.S. intelligence agencies have said otherwise. Former Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, responded to Trump’s remarks by declaring: “The president was given clear and indisputable evidence that Russia interfered in the election.”

As we’ll see below, there isn’t too much of the “clear and indisputable” stuff. And this of course is the same James Clapper who made an admittedly false statement to Congress in March 2013, when he responded, “No, sir” and “not wittingly” to a question about whether the National Security Agency was collecting “any type of data at all” on millions of Americans. Lies don’t usually come in any size larger than that. Virtually every member of Congress who has publicly stated a position on the issue has criticized Russia for interfering in the 2016 American presidential election. And it would be very difficult to find a member of the mainstream media who has questioned this thesis. What is the poor consumer of news to make of these gross contradictions?

Time to rephrase ‘social media’. Man evolved living in groups, it’s simple.

• Loneliness Estimated To Shorten A Person’s Life By 15 Years (SciAm)

Thanks to remarkable new technologies and the widespread use of social media, we are more “connected” than ever before. Yet as a nation, we are also more lonely. In fact, a recent study found that a staggering 47 percent of Americans often feel alone, left out and lacking meaningful connection with others. This is true for all ages, from teenagers to older adults. The number of people who perceive themselves to be alone, isolated or distant from others has reached epidemic levels both in the United States and in other parts of the world. Indeed, almost two decades ago, the book Bowling Alone pointed to the increasing isolation of Americans and our consequent loss of “social capital.” In Japan, for example, an estimated half million (known as hikikomori) shut themselves away for months on end.

In the United Kingdom, four in 10 citizens report feelings of chronic, profound loneliness, prompting the creation of a new cabinet-level position (the Minister for Loneliness) to combat the problem. While this “epidemic” of loneliness is increasingly recognized as a social issue, what’s less well recognized is the role loneliness plays as a critical determinant of health. Loneliness can be deadly: this according to former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, among others, who has stressed the significant health threat. Loneliness has been estimated to shorten a person’s life by 15 years, equivalent in impact to being obese or smoking 15 cigarettes per day. A recent study revealed a surprising association between loneliness and cancer mortality risk, pointing to the role loneliness plays in cancer’s course, including responsiveness to treatments.

Wasn’t kale supposed to not need any?

• Kale Is Now One Of The Most Pesticide-Contaminated Vegetables (CNBC)

Often touted for being highly nutritious, kale has joined the list of 11 other fruits and vegetables known to be “dirty,” according to an analysis by the Environmental Working Group. The watchdog group publishes its “Dirty Dozen” list annually, in which it ranks the 12 produce items that contain the highest amount of pesticide residues. The group analyzes data from the Department of Agriculture’s regular produce testing to determine the list. Ranked alongside kale on the list are strawberries, spinach, nectarines, apples, grapes, peaches, cherries, pears, tomatoes, celery and potatoes.

The last time kale was included in the USDA’s produce tests was 2009 and it ranked eighth on the Dirty Dozen list. “We were surprised kale had so many pesticides on it, but the test results were unequivocal,” said EWG Toxicologist Alexis Temkin in a release. More than 92 percent of kale had residue from at least two pesticides after washing and peeling the appropriate vegetables, according to the report. Some had up to 18. Almost 60 percent of the kale samples showed residual Dacthal, a pesticide that is known as a possible human carcinogen. The group releases its “Clean Fifteen” list as well, highlighting the 15 produce items with the least amount of pesticide residue detected. It includes avocados, sweet corn, pineapples, frozen sweet peas, onions, papayas, eggplants, asparagus, kiwis, cabbages, cauliflower, cantaloupes, broccoli, mushrooms and honeydew melons.