Doc Robinson
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Yuri says “HCQ actually KILLED up to 100,000 extra Covid patients worldwide.” [Twitter]
The “evidence” for this claim apparently are some shaky extrapolations supposedly based on a meta-analysis (by Axfours et al.) which relied heavily on the flawed RECOVERY trial of HCQ in the UK.
My earlier comment about that RECOVERY trial (the one with very high doses of HCQ given too late), from the June 6, 2020 Debt Rattle:
That drug trial was done on patients who were already in bad enough condition to be admitted to a hospital in the UK, before the HCQ was started. By this point, the patients were sick enough that their mortality rate was around 25% (with or without HCQ).
“No clinical benefit from use of hydroxychloroquine in hospitalised patients with COVID-19… There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care…”
Of course, HCQ is supposed to be given sooner (with zinc), before the symptoms get so bad.
The Axfours meta-analysis, which was based mainly on that flawed RECOVERY trial outcome:
Mortality outcomes with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine in COVID-19 from an international collaborative meta-analysis of randomized trials
We present a rapid meta-analysis of ongoing, completed, or discontinued RCTs on hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment for any COVID-19 patients… Results for hydroxychloroquine are dominated by RECOVERY and WHO SOLIDARITY, two highly pragmatic trials, which employed relatively high doses and included 4716 and 1853 patients, respectively (67% of the total sample size)… We found that treatment with hydroxychloroquine is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 patients, and there is no benefit of chloroquine.
phoenixvoice: “I remember two studies mentioned on TAE that addressed this [80% of the population is not really susceptible to the virus]. One corroborated the 80%/20% narrative, the other was a lower percentage, don’t recall it as clearly, maybe around 60%/40%?
Off the top of my head, there was a study in Germany which indicated that around 80% of the population already had existing antibody reactivity against the Covid-19 virus, while a study in the UK showed around 56%. I did a quick look for those studies today, but did not find them.
I did find this study in Canada which estimates that “between 90% and 99% of adults show positive antibody reactivity for SARS-CoV-2 spike, RBD, or the N antigen.”
A majority of uninfected adults show preexisting antibody reactivity against SARS-CoV-2The main finding in this study is that, at a population level, the vast majority of [uninfected] adults show antibody reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 antigens… we estimate that between 90% and 99% of adults show positive antibody reactivity for SARS-CoV-2 spike, RBD, or the N antigen. Prepandemic sera showed similar antibody reactivity, therefore excluding the possibility that the reactivity in adults after the first pandemic wave is due to undiagnosed exposures to the virus in the study population. This baseline, preexisting SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity in uninfected adults was evenly distributed according to age, sex, travel history, or whether participants were healthcare workers (HCW), and the data were independent of participants’ reporting “COVID-19-like” symptoms.
https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/146316
Note that in this graphic the “Covid-19 Convalescent” (after being infected) have the most antibody reactivity against Covid-19.
https://df6sxcketz7bb.cloudfront.net/manuscripts/146000/146316/medium/jci.insight.146316.ga.jpgFrom an article published yesterday, at least 233 staff at two San Francisco hospitals tested positive in July, and an overwhelming majority of them were fully vaccinated.
233 Staff at 2 San Francisco Hospitals Test Positive in JulyAt least 233 staff members at two major San Francisco hospitals, most of them fully vaccinated, tested positive for the coronavirus this month, and most, according to a hospital official, involved the highly contagious Delta variant…
About 75 to 80 percent of the more than 50 staff members infected at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital were fully vaccinated, Dr. Lukejohn Day, the hospital’s chief medical officer, said in an interview on Saturday. The University of California, San Francisco Medical Center said in a statement issued on Friday that 153 of its 183 infected staff members [84%] had been fully vaccinated.
https://newsweek365.com/2021/07/31/233-staff-at-2-san-francisco-hospitals-test-positive-in-july/
Dr. D: Does someone have an actual breakdown of unvaccinated?
You inspired me to look at some of the official numbers of the fully vaccinated in the US, for what it’s worth. The CDC presents it in a way that, to me, obscures the real picture. I did a simple analysis using spreadsheet data from the CDC, with some help from the census.gov sites.
The CDC data currently shows 164,446,964 people in the US are fully vaccinated (which is 49% of total US population, including children).
Race/Ethnicity was reported for 103,554,182 (63%) of the people fully vaccinated.
Race/Ethnicity was not reported for 57,892,782 (37%) of the people fully vaccinated.Below is the breakdown for the numbers of the fully vaccinated (where the Race/Ethnicity was reported), shown as a percentage of the total population of each Race/Ethnicity grouping in the US.
(Keep in mind that the Race/Ethnicity for more than a third of the fully vaccinated has not been identified, so the actual numbers in this breakdown should be higher, but that still leaves a lot of unvaccinated people, slightly more than half of the total population).At least 23% of the Black (Non_Hispanic) population are known to be fully vaccinated.
At least 28% of the Hispanic/Latino population are known to be fully vaccinated.
At least 30% of the White (Non_Hispanic) population are known to be fully vaccinated.
At least 30% of the Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander (Non_Hispanic) population are known to be fully vaccinated.
At least 34% of the Asian (Non_Hispanic) population are known to be fully vaccinated.
At least 36% of the American Indian/Alaska Native (Non_Hispanic) population are known to be fully vaccinated.
At least 109% of the Multiple/Other (Non_Hispanic) population are known to be fully vaccinated. (This could mean that more people were identifying as “Multiple” or “Other” race/ethnicity when vaccinated, compared to in the census data.)https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic
https://www.census.gov/popclock/Meanwhile, in Sweden…
In contrast to its European neighbors, Sweden is welcoming tourists. Businesses and schools are open with almost no restrictions. And as far as masks are concerned, not only is there no mandate in place, Swedish health officials are not even recommending them.
What are the results of Sweden’s much-derided laissez-faire policy? Data show the 7-day rolling average for COVID deaths yesterday was zero
Sweden dropped its last remaining mask recommendation – related to public transport – on July 1. While Sweden’s public health agency has supported measures such as social distancing and remote working, it has no recommendations for the use of face coverings in public spaces.
https://www.rt.com/news/530759-sweden-delta-masks-zero-covid-deaths/
This simple graph shows how the delta variant is far less deadly than earlier variants in the UK.
Cases compared to Deaths, for each of the three waves.
https://blog-gerard.maudrux.fr/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/image-16-768×568.pnghttps://blog-gerard.maudrux.fr/2021/07/26/le-variant-delta-en-chiffres/
From the CDC’s report showing how the vaccines are failing against the Delta variant.
74% of cases occurred in fully vaccinated persons
vaccination coverage among eligible Massachusetts residents was 69%.
79% [of] vaccinated patients with breakthrough infection were symptomatic.
Among five COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized, four were fully vaccinated; no deaths were reported.
Cycle threshold values were similar among specimens from patients who were fully vaccinated and those who were not.Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings — Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021
Early Release / July 30, 2021
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm7031e2_wDr. Fauci now points out why vaccine passports, and blaming the unvaccinated, are unjustified.
“You can make a reasonable assumption that vaccinated people can transmit the virus just like unvaccinated people can.”
In the state of Massachusetts, for the week ending July 23, “the breakthrough cases account for 38.1 percent of all new COVID-19 cases.”
Numbers from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health show there have been 6,373 cases of COVID-19 in fully vaccinated individuals as of July 24, a significant jump from the 5,166 cases reported as of July 17 and 4,450 reported a week earlier.
The DPH reported 3,161 new positive COVID-19 cases between July 17 and July 23.
When analyzing the number of overall COVID-19 cases reported by the DPH between July 17 and July 23, the breakthrough cases account for 38.1 percent of all new COVID-19 cases.
Covid outbreak at Provincetown, Mass.
Lots of breakthrough infections.As of Thursday, 882 people were tied to the Provincetown outbreak. Among those living in Massachusetts, 74% of them were fully immunized, yet officials said the vast majority were also reporting symptoms. Seven people were reported hospitalized.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cdc-mask-decision-stunning-findings-cape-cod-beach/story?id=79148102
@ Upstate NYer
John Day: “My blog is on a Google platform.”With Google blogs, there’s usually an option for anyone to comment as “Anonymous” which doesn’t require logging in to a Google account (like Gmail).
@ absolute galore
Yeah, the stories are slanted, and the Florida statistics being disclosed will selectively go into detail about certain aspects, but leave out some vital information.
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_20210723.pdfClarification:
“Compared to 3,080 Covid deaths in only one month (January), for the most recent two months there were less than 1,000 Covid deaths reported in Illinois.”
3,080 deaths in just one month, January.
Less than 1,000 deaths in the most recent two months combined.• 159 Dead, 593 Hospitalized in Illinois Breakthrough COVID Cases (NBC)
“…equates to 2.3% of COVID-19 deaths in the state since Jan. 1, officials said.”
“Illinois’ top doctor said last week that breakthrough cases of COVID-19 in fully vaccinated residents are a “unicorn” as she again urged those who have not yet gotten vaccinated to do so.”Shame on you, “top doctor,” for misleading the public.
1 out of 8 Covid deaths (in the past couple months) is not really a “unicorn,” especially when less than half the population is fully vaccinated.
And 2.3% is too low, if a meaningful comparison is the the goal.
12% of Illinois’ Covid deaths since June 9 were fully vaccinated, according to the reported data.The state officials cite a misleading 2.3% because they are starting their count in January, in the midst of the biggest wave, when there were more than 3,000 deaths in Illinois in that one month, while only 2% of the state’s population was fully vaccinated by January 31.
Compared to 3,080 Covid deaths in only one month (January), for the most recent two months there were less than 1,000 Covid deaths reported in Illinois.
Unlike the state officials, I’m not cherry-picking the data, I’m just using what limited data is being disclosed to the public.
…as of July 21, 159 fully vaccinated deaths in Illinois
…as of June 9, 106 fully vaccinated deaths in Illinois
Fully vaccinated Covid deaths from June 9 to July 21 = 159 – 106 = 53…as of July 21, 25,854 total Covid deaths in Illinois
…as of June 9, 25,413 total Covid deaths in Illinois
Total Covid deaths from June 9 to July 21 = 25,854 – 25,413 = 441Percentage of Covid deaths from June 9 to July 21 that were fully vaccinated = 53/441 = 12%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/illinois/
https://ourworldindata.org/us-states-vaccinationsFor those Novia Scotia numbers, even if I lowball it by assuming only half (11) of those 22 cases were in the 20-29 age group for males, then the risk would be 500 per million, which is still 10 times greater than the numbers given by the CDC.
But, “mostly arisen in males between 20 and 30 years old” sounds like it’s significantly more than half.
Nova Scotia census data:
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/Page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=PR&Code1=12&Geo2=&Code2=&Data=Count&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=AllVaccine Uptake by Age Group
Last updated 22 Jul 2021
[change “Tests” to “Vaccine Uptake”]
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/204d6ed723244dfbb763ca3f913c5cadThe CDC says the risk of myocarditis/pericarditis after vaccination is only around 40 per million for that age group (nowhere near the 1,000 per million estimate based on Nova Scotia data).
Hereafter, myocarditis is used to refer to myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis… Myocarditis reporting rates were 40.6 cases per million second doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines administered to males aged 12−29 years and 2.4 per million second doses administered to males aged ≥30 years; reporting rates among females in these age groups were 4.2 and 1.0 per million second doses, respectively. The highest reporting rates were among males aged 12−17 years and those aged 18−24 years (62.8 and 50.5 reported myocarditis cases per million second doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine administered, respectively).
“22 cases of heart inflammation in nova scotia, canada”
22 cases of heart inflammation reported in the province after immunization with Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines… have mostly arisen in males between 20 and 30 years old who recently received their second doses of vaccine
To get a rough idea of the risk:
Census data for number of males age 20-29 in Nova Scotia:
54,940Vaccinated percentage of this age group in Nova Scotia:
40%Vaccinated number of males in this age group:
(.40)(54940) =
21,976Risk of heart inflammation after vaccination:
22 cases out of 21,976 vaccinations
or
1 out of 1,000
or
1,000 per millionThis seems much higher than what the CDC is reporting for the US cases, but it’s just a rough estimate.
democritus: “I decided on balance that the vaccine was less risky than the risk of getting covid19”
The risks of Covid-19 are individualized, not universal, and I support your right to make such a personal decision.
• Vaxxed Employees Of CA City Must Wear Stickers To Work Without Masks
“the CDC offers a selection of printable stickers that workplaces can provide to employees who get vaccinated.”
For adults, really? Pathetic, at best.
Something odd seems to be happening with the mortality of the 15-44 age group in Israel.
Looking at all the weekly mortality data for Israel (listed at the Euromomo site), which goes back to the end of 2015, the top 3 weeks for mortality in this age group occurred this year, during the past few months.
In the graph shown below, the three spikes at the right, at Weeks 17, 24, and 26 of 2021, are higher than any other week in the entire data set.
The latest round, from today, of Rand Paul vs. Anthony Fauci
Indonesia is getting some attention with stories like this:
“Covid-19: Indonesia becomes Asia’s new pandemic epicentre as delta variant spreads” (BMJ)But looking the numbers of Covid deaths (per million people) adds some perspective. The graph below shows that from the beginning of the pandemic until this past month, Indonesia’s daily Covid deaths never reached more than about 1 per million, while the UK had two big waves peaking at around 13 and 18 per million, and the US deaths were up around 7 and 10 per million.
[graph from Our World in Data]Now, Indonesia’s daily deaths are approaching 4 per million, but the curve might level off soon and then drop, similar to India’s outbreak which only reached 3 per million. We’ll see whether it does. Indonesia recently authorized ivermectin as a treatment for Covid.
Ivermectin Authorized in Indonesia as Pharma Issued License for Production to Battle COVID-19
[This comment wouldn’t post earlier today, so I’m trying a third time, with no links.]
A misleading article about breakthrough cases, from July 14:
2% of COVID Deaths in Illinois This Year Have Been Fully Vaccinated ResidentsIllinois’ top doctor said Tuesday that breakthrough cases of COVID-19 in fully vaccinated residents are a “unicorn” as she again urged those who have not yet gotten vaccinated to do so.
(NBC Chicago dot com)
They are including the big increase in cases during January, when only 2% of the state’s population was fully vaccinated by the end of the month. What about the more relevant (but unpublicized) numbers for the most recent month?
Digging through data at the Illinois Department of Public Health, with help from the Wayback Machine, it becomes clear that we are not in “unicorn” territory. The 2% jumps up to around 12% for the most recent month. It’s on its way to the levels already reached in Israel and the UK.
Data and calculations:
Covid deaths for the fully vaccinated in Illinois
as of July 14, 151 deaths
as of June 9, 106 deaths
from June 9 – July 15, 151 – 106 = 45 deaths
Total Covid deaths in Illinois from June 9 – July 15 = 390
Percentage of Covid deaths, fully vaccinated = 45/390 = 12%Mr. Roboto: “I just looked at Google’s “new cases” graph for Missouri. What the Sam Freaking Hill happened on March 8 in that state???”
March 8, 2021: Missouri began reporting probable cases identified through antigen testing, resulting in a one-day increase in total cases. [NYTimes]
Official stats for Missouri’s hospitalizations “confirmed or suspected to have COVID-19” compared to the number of hospital beds.
COVID-19 Patients in the Hospital
1,424
[confirmed or suspected to have COVID-19]
(as of 7/14/2021)440 in the ICU
207 on ventilatorsHospital Capacity: The numbers above reflect only COVID-19 patients. They do not include other patients in the hospital. As of October, Missouri has over 22,000 hospital beds, including over 2,700 ICU beds. Hospitals have over 2,300 ventilators, and the state stockpile has an additional 240 ventilators.
https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/data/public-health/
UK news from the BMJ:
Covid-19: Vaccine centres operating at 30% capacity as young people stay away
we’ve got absolutely lots of vaccine and we don’t have the people coming forward
• Question Everything (Ballan)
“Studies indicate that 25 cycles are enough to detect an infectious virus.”The GOV.UK publishes data showing the Ct values for the UK’s positive Covid tests. Here’s a snippet, with the 75th percentile of Ct values for every week of 2021. This means that 25% of the positive tests for the week had Ct values higher than the number listed.
COVID-19 positive cases by Ct value, UK
75th Percentile31.4 (week starting 04 Jan 2021)
33.4 (week starting 11 Jan 2021)
33.7 (week starting 18 Jan 2021)
33.8
33.7
33.8
33.4
33.1
33.6
33.4
34.0
33.6
33.7
33.7
33.3
32.4
32.4
33.4
33.8
33.8
33.7
33.3
33.1
31.9
32.7
31.9
29.8 (week starting 05 July 2021)from an Excel spreadsheet linked to this page:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/covid19infectionsurveytechnicaldata• Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection Rescues B And T Cell Responses To Variants (SciMag)
“After vaccination, naïve individuals developed antibody responses similar to those seen in naturally infected persons, but T cell responses were more limited and sometimes absent. However, antibody and memory responses in individuals vaccinated after infection were substantially boosted to the extent that a single vaccine dose is likely to protect against the more aggressive B.1.1.7 variant.”Translation: Covid vaccination gives less protection (less, and possibly zero T cell responses) than having recovered from Covid. But if you give one shot of the vaccine to those who already recovered from a Covid infection, it’s “likely” to give even more protection against variants. (Not examined: whether the previously infected already have enough protection against variants, without the vaccine.)
Interesting comments by Craig Murray on Twitter:
I am about as clinically vulnerable to Covid as you can get, but I should be horrified if other people were obliged to wear masks to protect me. For God’s sake I was not designed to live forever, and nor were you. Sucking the joy out of other people’s lives is not my goal.
But this started as a conversation about my not wanting people to be forced to wear masks to protect vulnerable people like me now that healthy vaccinated people are not at serious risk. It morphed into healthy people yelling that vulnerable people should be forced to wear masks or locked up, to protect healthy people.
Rolling Stone: “99.2 Percent of All U.S. Covid Deaths Are Unvaccinated, New Analysis Shows”
The 99.2 figure comes from this calculation:
“According to the analysis of government data from May, released on Thursday, out of the 18,000 Covid-19 deaths during the month, approximately 150 were fully vaccinated people. That comes out to 0.8 percent.”I didn’t check that month’s data, but I did look at the latest month of data (June 6 to July 7) from the CDC, which shows 385 breakthough case deaths, compared to 8781 total Covid deaths, which makes 4.4% (quite a jump from the prior month’s 0.8%). Taking out the numbers for fatal breakthough cases “reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19” results in 230 deaths or 2.6% of the total Covid deaths reported for that period. (I suspect that the total Covid deaths include some fatalities similarly “”reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19” but that data is not available.)
In any case, from May to June in the US there was evidently a big jump in the percentage of Covid deaths which were vaccinated. Perhaps the trend will continue in the coming months, bringing the US numbers more in line with the UK and Israel.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
Maxwell: “She walked up to me waving her finger…”
Reminds me of the film Invasion of the Body Snatchers.
CJ Hopkins: “these people have surrendered their rationality…”
Invasion of the Rationality Surrenderers?
@ WES
With 33% of the reported deaths (so far) being listed as having an “Unknown” age, you may still be right about the CDC withholding age data.
More VAERS data: shows 7,397 cases where patient became disabled after getting the Covid vaccination. Below is the age distribution. Here’s the first case listed (out of 7,397):
Vaccinated: 2020-12-16
Onset: 2020-12-16
Permanent Disability? Yes
Hospitalized? Yes, 3 daysWrite-up: Patient is a pleasant 83 y.o. female pediatrician with history of Sjogren”s, hypothyroidism, hyperlipidemia, hypertension who had been at Hospital to get her Covid vaccine. 30 minutes after doing so she reports being in the lobby and about to walk upstairs and feeling fine. The next thing she knows she wakes up on the stairs with her nose and face bleeding surrounded by healthcare team. She denies any precipitating symptoms such as chest pain, shortness of breath, fevers dizziness, headache. She reports feeling well otherwise in the last few days. I did a thorough bony palpation exam including spine and he only point of tenderness besides on her face was the area above her right ankle. She does not have a history of syncope or collapse
From the 7/2/2021 release of VAERS data:
Found 7,397 cases where Vaccine is COVID19 and Patient Did Not Die and DisabledAge Serious Count Percent
< 3 Years Yes 3 0.04%
3-6 Years Yes 4 0.05%
6-9 Years Yes 1 0.01%
12-17 Years Yes 23 0.31%
17-44 Years Yes 1,592 21.52%
44-65 Years Yes 2,402 32.47%
65-75 Years Yes 1,139 15.4%
75+ Years Yes 846 11.44%
Unknown Yes 1,387 18.75%
TOTAL 7,397 100%VAERS currently shows 41,015 “serious” problems after Covid vaccination. Here’s the age distribution:
From the 7/2/2021 release of VAERS data:
Found 41,015 cases where Vaccine is COVID19 and SeriousAge Serious Count Percent
< 3 Years Yes 16 0.04%
3-6 Years Yes 8 0.02%
6-9 Years Yes 3 0.01%
12-17 Years Yes 602 1.47%
17-44 Years Yes 7,052 17.19%
44-65 Years Yes 10,052 24.51%
65-75 Years Yes 6,696 16.33%
75+ Years Yes 8,976 21.88%
Unknown Yes 7,610 18.55%
TOTAL 41,015 100%Here’s the age distribution of the VAERS data for deaths following the Covid vaccines.
From the 7/2/2021 release of VAERS data:
Found 9,048 cases where Vaccine is COVID19 and Patient DiedAge Serious Count Percent
< 3 Years Yes 3 0.03%
12-17 Years Yes 9 0.1%
17-44 Years Yes 270 2.98%
44-65 Years Yes 1,028 11.36%
65-75 Years Yes 1,305 14.42%
75+ Years Yes 3,360 37.14%
Unknown Yes 3,073 33.96%
TOTAL 9,048 100%Yesterday, the British Medical Journal BMJ published this opinion piece from one of its editors:
Covid-19 vaccines for children: hypothetical benefits to adults do not outweigh risks to children…there are multiple assumptions that need to be examined when judging calls to vaccinate children against covid-19.
First, the disease in children is commonly mild, and serious sequelae remain rare. Despite “long covid” recently garnering increased attention, two large studies in children show that prolonged symptoms are uncommon and overall similar or milder in children testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared to those with symptoms from other respiratory viruses.
Covid-19 vaccines for children: hypothetical benefits to adults do not outweigh risks to children
