Apr 032015
 
 April 3, 2015  Posted by at 9:19 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  10 Responses »


G.G. Bain Pelham Park Railroad, City Island monorail, NY 1910

‘EU Has Already Collapsed’– Beppe Grillo (RT)
The Principal And Interest On Debt Myth (Steve Keen)
Greece Scraps Hospital Visit Fee, To Hire 4,500 Health Workers (Reuters)
Greek Reforms: Right Direction Or Road To Ruin? (CNBC)
Greece Draws Up Drachma Plans, Prepares To Miss IMF Payment (AEP)
Tsipras To Seek ‘Road Map’ During Russia Visit (Kathimerini)
Eurozone Officials: No Loan Tranches For Partial Greece Agreement (Kathimerini)
Euro Debate Ignites in East EU in Face of Public Skepticism (Bloomberg)
Oil Falls Nearly 4% After Tentative Nuclear Deal For Iran (Reuters)
Crude Oil Futures Retreat After Iran Nuclear Deal Reached (Bloomberg)
US to Press for Guilty Plea From Citibank in Currency Probe (Bloomberg)
Why Brazil Has A Big Appetite For Risky Pesticides (Reuters)
Turkey’s 10-Hour Blackout Shows World Power Grids Under Threat (Bloomberg)
Nestlé Called Out For Bottling, Selling California Water During Drought (Reuters)

“I am an ordinary man, a comic, who has found his niche in this world and who woke up one day with a determination to dedicate a bit of his experience, wits and money to the cause of common good.”

‘EU Has Already Collapsed’– Beppe Grillo (RT)

RT: Is the Italian population ready to abandon euro and come back to the lira?

BG: Yes, the lira. Rather, a lira. Not the lira we used to have twenty years ago. But let’s call this new currency lira, with the lira-euro rate 1 to 1. For me, leaving the Eurozone means primarily launching a currency I call lira, which is not the lira we had 20 years ago, but let’s retain the name lira all the same. When we switch to the new lira its value will automatically decline by 20-30%. It will be an immediate shock. And what will happen next? We’ll have to pay more for commodities. But we do not market commodities, what we do is process them. We buy oil and refine it, we buy soybeans and grain and process them. We refine oil to produce petrol getting back the 30% in added value, and it won’t significantly affect the final petrol price – 5-10 cents per liter at most. And we’ll get a 30% export benefit. I think we’ll become number one in Europe, since we are absolute leaders in terms of industrial production.

Our foreign debt will be reduced by 30%, our credits too. What is there to be afraid of? They do their best to scare you as soon as you start considering the option of walking out. They start shouting, “Oooooh, what a catastrophe”. It is their problem, their catastrophe, not ours, it is unrelated to intelligent, hardworking people who are intent on doing this. It’s the catastrophe for those who earn money staying at home, abusing the financial system, receiving capital gains, who don’t work for real and are not part of the real economy. Yes, considering that the financial transaction volume, as it seems, exceeds global GDP by 10-15%. Take the German Bundesbank. If you inspect its balance you’ll find there 70 thousand billion dollars in derivatives, hedge funds, financial products etc.

And you want them to invest in real economy – in small factories and that sort of thing! But mind you, Germany is also having a hard time. We should treat this issue with utmost care and attention. The problem, as I see it, largely depends on you, my friends, on how you translate this interview, which parts you’ll choose to broadcast and what your audience will eventually be able to make out of what I said here. Here’s the real problem. We don’t have facts any more, reliable truthful facts. We know nothing about the situation in Afghanistan, or about Iran. We don’t have a slightest idea of what Putin says, because everything is delivered to us in translation made by some American or Israeli language services agency. We can’t have the truth.

So first we need to imagine what this truth may be like and go search for it, even if we have to sacrifice something. I appeal to you- go and look for information. Look at me. Dig for truth and don’t believe the journalists who stick labels calling me a rightist, a leftist, a homophobe, a racist and what not. They call me all kinds of names. And, in fact, I am an ordinary man, a comic, with 40 years of professional career under belt, who has found his niche in this world and who woke up one day with a determination to dedicate a bit of his experience, wits and money to the cause of common good. This is what scares people.

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Buddy Steve takes you through it one more time.

The Principal And Interest On Debt Myth (Steve Keen)

There are many ways that you can divide the world into two groups. Men and women, for example—with the former being about 50.2% of the population and the latter 49.8%. Or those that like math and those that don’t—where there are no accurate figures, but I’d hazard a guess at a 10% to 90% split. The (almost) binary grouping that motivated this post is between those who reckon that banks, debt and money are of no real consequence in capitalism, and those who believe that the mere mechanics of banking guarantee that capitalism is doomed. The former includes the vast majority of economists, who delusionally model the macroeconomy as if banks, debt and money don’t exist. The latter includes most of the general public, who know that banks create money when they create a loan, and think that because banks insist on interest on loans, the money supply has to grow indefinitely.

I reckon the split in this binary division is about 0.1% in the “banks don’t matter” camp, and 99.9% in the “debt can’t be paid” group. But there is also a statistically insignificant handful who reckon that both groups are wrong. I’m one of that handful, and both other groups exasperate the hell out of me, and my sprinkling of like-minded colleagues—hi Stephanie, Scott, Richard [both of you] and a few others. A tweet from one the 99.9% finally pushed me over the edge on Twitter this weekend—see Figure 1—and I promised that I’d devote my next column on Forbes to debunking this myth.

The myth itself is clearly stated in Bernie King’s tweet: because banks lend principal, but insist that principal and interest be paid by the debtor, the money supply has to grow continuously to make this possible. The corollary is that since debt creates money, debt has to grow continuously too—faster than income—and that’s why capitalism has financial crises. So why is it wrong? In words, it’s because it confuses a stock (debt in dollars) with a flow (interest in dollars per year). But I’m not going to stick with mere words to try to explain this, because it’s fundamentally a mathematical proposition about accounting—that money must grow to allow interest to be paid on debt—and it’s best debunked using the maths of accounting, known as double-entry bookkeeping. So if you want to know why it’s a myth, brace yourself to do some intellectual work to follow the logic.

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As brave as it is necessary.

Greece Scraps Hospital Visit Fee, To Hire 4,500 Health Workers (Reuters)

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said a €5 fee to access state hospitals had been scrapped and 4,500 healthcare workers would be hired, the latest move by his leftist government to ease what it calls a humanitarian crisis in the country. The move is likely to further endear Tsipras to austerity-weary Greeks but represents yet another potential outlay by the cash-strapped government at a time when its European and IMF lenders are demanding a commitment to fiscal rigour. Still, the abolition of the 5 euro fee for hospital visits would hurt the budget by less than €20 million annually and the health workers are expected to be hired without running afoul of Greece’s pledge to trim the public sector.

“We want to turn the health sector from a victim of the bailouts, a victim of austerity, into a fundamental right for every resident of this country and we commit to do so at any cost,” Tsipras said, adding he would fight “barbaric conditions” in public hospitals and corruption in the sector. His government would unify data systems as part of measures to boost transparency and save money, he said, in a nod to a longtime demand from international lenders. In a package of reforms sent to lenders on Wednesday, Greece said it planned comprehensive healthcare reform with the universal right to quality healthcare. It cited a fiscal impact of €2.1-2.7 billion without specifying if that represented outlays or potential revenues from tackling corruption.

Greece spends €11 billion a year on its public healthcare system – accounting for about 5% of its total economic output, which Tsipras said represented the lowest level of health spending among EU countries. Years of deep cuts in health spending have hurt standards of care in Greece’s state hospitals where there is often a shortage of basic supplies while fewer doctors and nurses look after more patients, an increasing number of whom are uninsured. About 2.5 million Greeks have no health insurance, Tsipras said. Health officials caution that despite the worsening conditions in the sector, most Greeks are able to access the health system without insurance. “All citizens, after this terrifying crisis, should have access to healthcare irrespective of whether they have insurance or not,” Tsipras said. “We will not tolerate the exploitation of human pain.”

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“While it has cut government spending, Greece has also suffered from falling tax revenues, which means that its deficit figures are worse than its targets..”

Greek Reforms: Right Direction Or Road To Ruin? (CNBC)

Greece may have put together an updated list of reform proposals, but as its new government finds it more difficult to secure concessions, there are still fears the country could crash out of the euro zone. The contents of the new reforms list, which has been published by the Greek press and involves raising an extra €4.7-6.1 billion in government revenues, represents “a clear step in the right direction” according to economists at Barclays Capital. This means that, in effect, the Greek government has offered some concession to European authorities on the continuing wrangles over the austerity measures imposed as part of its bailout. Since Greece elected a new government in January, led by the left-wing Syriza party, which promised to bring an end to austerity, the tone of its negotiations with international creditors has changed, raising fears that it may end up defaulting on its debt repayments and exiting the euro zone.

What is certain is that Greece still needs external financial support, particularly the €7.2 billion in bailout funds which it hopes to unlock from its international lenders. To date, Greece has received two bailouts worth a total of €240 billion. Its lenders are keeping up the pressure on Greek politicians to reach a compromise. On Wednesday, the ECB raised Greece’s emergency liquidity by a modest €700 million to €71.8 billion, which Rabobank strategists argued continues “a strategy whereby Greece’s leeway in terms of liquidity is strictly rationed.” While it has cut government spending, Greece has also suffered from falling tax revenues, which means that its deficit figures are worse than its targets, and its deficit was still rising at the end of February. The other peripheral euro zone economies which were bailed out during the credit crisis are in various stages of recovery, but Greece has lagged behind. “Greece’s budget consolidation is unravelling,” Jessica Hinds at Capital Economics wrote in a research note.

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That’s exactly what I wrote a few days ago: of course they’re preparing to leave. But that’s all you can read into this. Ambrose may count for more than me, but it’s the same message.

Greece Draws Up Drachma Plans, Prepares To Miss IMF Payment (AEP)

Greece is drawing up drastic plans to nationalise the country’s banking system and introduce a parallel currency to pay bills unless the eurozone takes steps to defuse the simmering crisis and soften its demands. Sources close to the ruling Syriza party said the government is determined to keep public services running and pay pensions as funds run critically low. It may be forced to take the unprecedented step of missing a payment to the IMF next week. Greece no longer has enough money to pay the IMF €450 million on April 9 and also to cover payments for salaries and social security on April 14, unless the eurozone agrees to disburse the next tranche of its interim bail-out deal in time “We are a Left-wing government. If we have to choose between a default to the IMF or a default to our own people, it is a no-brainer,” said a senior official.

“We may have to go into a silent arrears process with the IMF. This will cause a furore in the markets and means that the clock will start to tick much faster,” the source told The Telegraph. Syriza’s radical-Left government would prefer to confine its dispute to EU creditors but the first payments to come due are owed to the IMF. While the party does not wish to trigger a formal IMF default, it increasingly views a slide into pre-default arrears as a necessary escalation in its showdown with Brussels and Frankfurt. The view in Athens is that the EU creditor powers have yet to grasp that the political landscape has changed dramatically since the election of Syriza in January and that they will have to make real concessions if they wish to prevent a disastrous rupture of monetary union, an outcome they have ruled out repeatedly as unthinkable.

“They want to put us through the ritual of humiliation and force us into sequestration. They are trying to put us in a position where we either have to default to our own people or sign up to a deal that is politically toxic for us. If that is their objective, they will have to do it without us,” the source said. Going into arrears at the IMF – even for a few days – is an extremely risky strategy. No developed country has ever defaulted to the Bretton Woods institutions. While there would be a grace period of six weeks before the IMF board declared Greece to be in technical default, the process could spin out of control at various stages. Syriza sources say are they fully aware that a tough line with creditors risks setting off an unstoppable chain-reaction. They insist that they are willing to contemplate the worst rather than abandon their electoral pledges to the Greek people.

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“Greece ‘will reassure the Russians, not the Westerners.'”

Tsipras To Seek ‘Road Map’ During Russia Visit (Kathimerini)

The aides of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Greek and Russian embassies in Moscow and Athens, are feverishly preparing for a scheduled visit by Tsipras to the Russian capital on April 8 and 9 which the Greek government hopes will serve to significantly upgrade bilateral ties. According to a well-informed source, Tsipras is expected to seek agreement for a “road map” of initiatives on the political and economic levels. Talks are expected to touch on several topics of bilateral interest, including “commercial and financial cooperation, investments, energy, tourism and cooperation in matters of education and culture,” according to Tsipras’s office.

Other topics on the agenda include “the relationship between Russia and the European Union, as well as regional and international issues.” Tsipras is expected to emphasize Greece’s respect for its commitments as a member of the EU and NATO on the one hand while underlining his conviction that the European Union’s “security architecture” should include Russia. Amid European concerns about Greece’s position vis-a-vis EU sanctions against Russia, Greek officials have sought to offer reassurances, suggesting that Athens will not actively oppose the EU line. But sources close to Tsipras said the government will continue to express its disagreement with sanctions as a policy.

As for a likely bilateral cooperation in the energy sector, a high-ranking government source told Kathimerini that Greece “will reassure the Russians, not the Westerners.” According to sources, Energy Minister Panayiotis Lafazanis has already agreed in principle to a proposal made by the head of Russian giant Gazprom, Alexey Miller, for a new gas pipeline through Turkey to be extended through Greek territory. The plan foresees the creation of a consortium in which Greece’s Public Gas Corporation (DEPA) would play a key role along with Russian funds and possibly also European clients of Gazprom, Kathimerini understands.

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As the game continues, it inevitably becomes less transparent.

Eurozone Officials: No Loan Tranches For Partial Greece Agreement (Kathimerini)

Greece is revisiting the possibility that it might be able to get some of the €7.2 billion remaining in bailout funding in return for part of the reforms being demanded by creditors but Kathimerini understands that the eurozone does not believe this option is available. Three European officials who spoke to Kathimerini on Thursday on condition of anonymity said there is no question of Athens receiving funding unless there is first an agreement on the entirety of the reform package. “There cannot be a partial agreement,” one of the three said. The next time Greece will be discussed is at a Euro Working Group (EWG) on April 8, a day ahead of Athens having to pay €450 million to the IMF.

Unnamed eurozone officials told Reuters that Greece expressed fears during the last EWG that it would run out of money on April 9. However, this claim was immediately denied by the government. “The Finance Ministry categorically denies an anonymous report by Reuters on issues which were supposedly discussed during the Euro Working Group on April 1,” the Finance Ministry said in a statement. Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said negotiations with Athens are “improving” but that there is still much ground for Greece and its lenders to cover before an agreement on reforms could be reached. “They deliver more and more proposals that are more and more detailed.

On some parts, we will definitely reach an agreement,” he said, adding that he does not expect the Eurogroup to meet next week to discuss Greek reforms. “There must be a good package which can also be realized in the four months we’re talking about,” Dijsselbloem said. “The clock continues to tick.” The Finance Ministry insisted on Thursday that Greece’s primary surplus target for this year will be 1.2 to 1.5% despite the fact that the proposals it sent to lenders, which were leaked on Wednesday, indicated a goal of 3.1 to 3.9%.

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Only fools and horses would volunteer to join the euro at this point.

Euro Debate Ignites in East EU in Face of Public Skepticism (Bloomberg)

While Greece may have one foot out the door, policy makers in the European Union’s east are reopening the debate about whether to join the euro area after years of shunning the currency during the global financial crisis. In the Czech Republic, the prime minister said on Wednesday that joining the euro soon would help the economy after the president challenged the central bank’s long-standing resistance with a vow to appoint policy makers who favor the common currency. In Poland, the main divide between the top two candidates in the May 10 presidential election is whether the region’s biggest economy should ditch the zloty. “It’s quite interesting how the sentiment has shifted — I’m slightly surprised by this,” William Jackson at Capital Economics said.

“As the story coming from the euro zone in recent years has been negative, it’s very hard to imagine how the euro case for the public would be made now.” The obstacles are many. Romania, which has set 2019 as a potential target date, and Hungary don’t meet all the economic criteria. Poland faces legal hurdles and the Czech government has said it won’t set a date during its four-year term. As a standoff between Greece and euro-area leaders threatens to push the country into insolvency and potential exit, opinion polls show most Czechs and Poles oppose a switch.

The appeal of the euro, which all European Union members save Britain and Denmark are technically obliged to join, suffered when the area had to provide emergency loans to ailing members during the economic crisis. While five ex-communist countries that joined the trading bloc in 2004 – Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – have acceded, the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary don’t have road maps. The region’s three biggest economies argued that floating currencies and control over monetary policy helps shield themselves against shocks like the euro crisis even if smaller countries may benefit from lower exchange-rate volatility and reduced trade costs. Facing weakening in their korunas, zlotys, and forints, some politicians in eastern Europe are questioning that logic.

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The new US balance act make everybody wobble on their feet.

Oil Falls Nearly 4% After Tentative Nuclear Deal For Iran (Reuters)

Brent oil fell nearly 4% on Thursday after a preliminary pact between Iran and global powers on Tehran’s nuclear program, even as officials set further talks in June and analysts questioned when the OPEC member will be allowed to export more crude. Traders had been fixated on the talks held in Lausanne, Switzerland for over a week as Iran tried to agree with six world powers on concessions to its nuclear program to remove U.S.-led sanctions that have halved its oil exports. The sanctions against Iran will come off under a “future comprehensive deal” to be agreed by June 30, after it complies with nuclear-related provisions, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told a news conference. “If nothing is going to be signed until June, something could go wrong between now and then,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

Bob McNally, an adviser to former U.S. president George Bush who heads energy research firm Rapidan Group, noted Iran will need much patience as the “sanctions are not likely to be lifted until late 2015 or early 2016, though we could see slippage beforehand.” North Sea Brent crude futures, the more widely-used global benchmark for oil, settled down $2.15, or 3.8%, at $54.95 a barrel, almost $1 above the session low. U.S. crude futures settled down 95 cents, or 2%, at $49.14 a barrel, after falling nearly $2 earlier. “I think the market over reacted and is now sitting back a little to think there is a lot more work to be done,” said Dominick Chirichella at the Energy Management Institute. Under the preliminary deal, Iran would shut down more than two-thirds of its centrifuges producing uranium that could be used to build a bomb, dismantle a reactor that could produce plutonium and accept intrusive verification. Iran also needs to limit enrichment of uranium for 10 years.

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“Prices pared losses on speculation no additional Iranian oil will flow into the global market in the short term.”

Crude Oil Futures Retreat After Iran Nuclear Deal Reached (Bloomberg)

Crude oil futures declined after Iran and world powers said they reached an outline accord that keeps them on track to end a decade-long nuclear dispute. Brent slid 3.8% in London, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.9% in New York. The sides now have until the end of June to bridge gaps and draft a detailed technical agreement that would ease the international sanctions imposed on Iran, including oil exports. Prices pared losses on speculation no additional Iranian oil will flow into the global market in the short term. “This is mildly bearish,” Michael Lynch at Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said by phone. “We were expecting more Iranian oil to hit the market regardless of the outcome of the talks. They are not about to dump oil on the market.”

Iran, a member of OPEC, could boost shipments by 1 million barrels a day if penalties are lifted, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said March 16. Extra supplies would add to a worldwide glut that’s sent oil prices 50% lower since last year. WTI for May delivery settled down 95 cents to end at $49.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract climbed $2.49 to $50.09 on Wednesday, the biggest gain since February. Brent for May settlement declined $2.15 to $54.95 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.81 to WTI on the ICE. Both exchanges are closed April 3 for the Good Friday holiday. Sanctions against oil exports will be lifted upon the deal’s completion, Iran’s Tasnim news service reported.

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Some criminals just negotiate, knowing they don’t risk any penaties thermselves, only their firm will get wrist-slapped. “Citigroup has countered with an offer that the plea come from a subsidiary that’s smaller than the Citibank NA unit..”

US to Press for Guilty Plea From Citibank in Currency Probe (Bloomberg)

The U.S. Department of Justice is pressing for Citigroup’s main banking subsidiary to plead guilty to a felony tied to the rigging of foreign-exchange markets, according to two people briefed on the matter. Citigroup has countered with an offer that the plea come from a subsidiary that’s smaller than the Citibank NA unit, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private negotiations. An agreement could come as soon as May and the related fine probably won’t exceed $1 billion, one of the people said. Two other people said the Justice Department is weighing all options and hasn’t decided on a particular entity. A guilty plea by its main banking unit might threaten Citigroup’s ability to operate certain types of businesses through that subsidiary, which accounted for more than 70% of the firm’s revenue last year.

The Justice Department has been investigating banks’ alleged manipulation of currency benchmarks for almost two years, and is pressing to resolve the probe with settlements that include guilty pleas, people familiar with the negotiations have told Bloomberg.
Authorities want the pleas to come from entities of greater importance within the banks, while the companies would prefer smaller units, according to two people briefed on the talks. JPMorgan, for example, would rather have its U.K.- based subsidiary plead guilty, arguing the behavior occurred there, the people said. Citibank reported $10.3 billion of net income in 2014 and at year-end it held assets of $1.36 trillion, or 74% of Citigroup’s total, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data.

The parent company books the vast majority of its derivatives trades through the unit, which typically benefits from a higher credit rating and lower funding costs. A guilty plea by the nation’s third-biggest bank would set a new bar for criminal enforcement in the U.S. financial industry. While JPMorgan and Citigroup have paid billions of dollars in fines to resolve probes into their business practices since the 2008 financial crisis, neither has been convicted of a crime in the U.S. Settlements with the two New York-based firms would come around the same time as at least three other banks, one person said, declining to identify them. Another person familiar with the matter said last month that Citigroup and JPMorgan were in settlement talks along with UBS, Barclays and RBS.

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“What’s toxic in one place is toxic everywhere, including Brazil.”

Why Brazil Has A Big Appetite For Risky Pesticides (Reuters)

The farmers of Brazil have become the world’s top exporters of sugar, orange juice, coffee, beef, poultry and soybeans. They’ve also earned a more dubious distinction: In 2012, Brazil passed the United States as the largest buyer of pesticides. This rapid growth has made Brazil an enticing market for pesticides banned or phased out in richer nations because of health or environmental risks. At least four major pesticide makers – U.S.-based FMC, Denmark’s Cheminova, Helm of Germany and Swiss agribusiness giant Syngenta – sell products here that are no longer allowed in their domestic markets, a Reuters review of registered pesticides found. Among the compounds widely sold in Brazil: paraquat, which was branded as “highly poisonous” by U.S. regulators. Both Syngenta and Helm are licensed to sell it here.

Brazilian regulators warn that the government hasn’t been able to ensure the safe use of agrotóxicos, as herbicides, insecticides and fungicides are known in Portuguese. In 2013, a crop duster sprayed insecticide on a school in central Brazil. The incident, which put more than 30 schoolchildren and teachers in the hospital, is still being investigated. “We can’t keep up,” says Ana Maria Vekic, chief of toxicology at Anvisa, the federal agency in charge of evaluating pesticide health risks. FMC, Cheminova and Syngenta said the products they sell are safe if used properly. A ban in one country doesn’t necessarily mean a pesticide should be prohibited everywhere, they argue, because each market has different needs based on its crops, pests, illnesses and climate.

“You can’t compare Brazil to a temperate climate,” says Eduardo Daher, executive director of Andef, a Brazilian pesticide trade association. “We have more blights, more insects, more harvests.” Public-health specialists here reject that argument. “So what if the needs of crops or soils in Brazil are different?” says Victor Pelaez, a food engineer and economist at the Federal University of Paraná, in southern Brazil. “What’s toxic in one place is toxic everywhere, including Brazil.”

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Who in the west will not think: oh, well, Turkey, isn’t that the third world?

Turkey’s 10-Hour Blackout Shows World Power Grids Under Threat (Bloomberg)

A massive power failure that crippled life in Turkey for almost 10 hours on Tuesday highlights the threats facing grids worldwide. Turkey’s most extensive power failure in 15 years, which left people stranded in elevators and traffic snarled, wasn’t the result of a lack of electricity. The prime minister said all possible causes – including a cyber-attack – were being investigated. While the source of the problem is still unknown, recent revelations that a 2008 oil pipeline explosion in Turkey was orchestrated via computer and the high-profile attack last year on Sony Pictures Entertainment demonstrate the increasing ability of hackers to penetrate systems. For power grids, technology being added to make them more reliable and productive is also giving attackers an entry point into vital infrastructure.

“Every country, including the U.S., will be looking at it to see what the vulnerabilities were and learn some lessons about protection,” said Kit Konolige, a New York-based utility analyst for Bloomberg. “An electric grid is a complex system and it’s hard to ensure that it’s defended everywhere.” Several foreign governments have hacked into U.S. energy, water and fuel distribution systems and might damage essential services, the National Security Agency said in November. A report by California-based cybersecurity company SentinelOne predicts that such attacks will disrupt American electricity in 2015.

“More and more attacks are targeting the industrial control systems that run the production networks of critical infrastructure, stealing data and causing damage,” said David Emm, a principal researcher at Moscow-based security company Kaspersky Lab Inc., which advises governments and businesses. All power use was previously measured by mechanical meters, which were inspected and read by a utility worker. Now, utilities are turning to smart meters, which communicate live data to customers and the utility company. This opens up the systems to hackers.

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“Nestlé may be bottling more than locals drink from the tap.”

Nestlé Called Out For Bottling, Selling California Water During Drought (Reuters)

Nestlé is wading into what may be the purest form of water risk. A unit of the $243 billion Swiss food and drinks giant is facing populist protests for bottling and selling perfectly good water in Canada and drought-stricken California. Nestlé Waters says it does nothing harmful in the watersheds where it operates. Its parent company also signed and strongly supports the United Nations-sponsored CEO Water Mandate, which develops corporate sustainability policies. The company is under fire in British Columbia, though, for paying only $2.25 for every million liters of water it withdraws from local sources. Yet the provincial government sets the price and until this year charged nothing. The rates are also far higher in Quebec, which charges $70, and Nova Scotia, where the price is $140.

Nonetheless, 132,000 people have signed an online petition demanding the government stop allowing Nestlé to take water on the cheap. The company’s reputation may be at even greater risk in California, whose severe drought is in its fourth year. The Courage Campaign has organized an online petition, with more than 40,000 signatures so far, that demands Nestlé Waters stop bottling H2O during the drought. There are several local protests, too. The Swiss firm drew 50 million gallons from Sacramento sources last year, less than 0.5% of the Sacramento Suburban Water District’s total production. It amounts to about 12% of residential water use, though, and is just shy of how much water flows from home faucets in the United States, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

In other words, Nestlé may be bottling more than locals drink from the tap. Consumers can only blame themselves, of course, for buying so much bottled water. The average price for a gallon is $1.21, according to the International Bottled Water Association. For just $1.60, Californians could purchase 1,000 gallons of tap water, according to the National Resources Defense Council. Moreover, Nestlé’s water business is its smallest and least profitable, generating a trading operating profit last year of 10.3% – less than half that of its powdered and liquid beverages unit. With California imposing a 25% cut on residential water use, Nestlé Waters may want to consider turning off its own taps.

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Mar 012015
 
 March 1, 2015  Posted by at 12:58 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  4 Responses »


NPC K & W Tire Co. Rainier truck, Washington, DC 1919

Forget All Our Other Troubles – The Russians Are Coming! (Neil Clark)
What Is Money And How Is It Created? (Steve Keen)
Humiliated Greece Eyes Byzantine Pivot As Crisis Deepens (AEP)
Poll Surge For Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza As Greeks Learn To Smile Again (Guardian)
Greece’s Lenders Skeptical On New Bills But Focus On Funding Needs (Kathimerini)
Greece To Prioritize IMF Repayments But Wants Talks On ECB-held Bonds (AP)
Schäuble Softens Tone On Greece and Varoufakis (AFP)
Greek PM Accuses Spain, Portugal of Anti-Athens ‘Axis’ (Reuters)
Eurozone Negative-Yield Bond Universe Expands to $1.9 Trillion (Bloomberg)
US Cuts Off Student-Loan Collectors for Misleading Debtors (Bloomberg)
Shadow Banking Shrinks to Least Since 2000 as Liquidity Declines (Bloomberg)
Fed Independence Is A Joke, So Why Not Audit? (Freedomworks)
China Factory Sector Still Shrinking, Official PMI Shows (Reuters)
Crude Price Shock Sends Canadian Oil Service Companies Into Whirlwind (RT)
Ukraine Pays Gazprom $15 Million For 24 Hours Worth Of Gas (RT)
Mass Anti-Immigration Rally In Rome (BBC)
Uruguay Bids Farewell To Jose Mujica, Its Pauper President (BBC)
Why Iceland Banned Beer 100 Years Ago (BBC)

“..the BBC News website ran an article entitled “How to spot a Russian bomber.” I printed the guide out and thanks to it I was able to rule out the possibility that the plane flying over my local playing fields was a Tupolev Tu-22M3 and was able to sleep easily in my bed that night..”

Forget All Our Other Troubles – The Russians Are Coming! (Neil Clark)

The gap between the rich and the poor continues to grow. Train and bus fares continue to rise. Twice as many people are living in poverty than 30 years ago. And our National Health Service is being privatized before our very eyes. But hey – we Brits must forget about all those things – because there’s something far more important to worry about. The Russians are coming! That “sinister tyrant” Vladimir Putin, doesn’t’ just threaten the whole of Ukraine – and the Baltic States – but even poses a “threat” to Britain too! This simply must be true (says author, tongue firmly in cheek), because the claims are being made by prominent members of the British political and media establishment – you know the same bunch who in 2003 told us Iraq had WMDs, who in 2011 told us that toppling Gaddafi was a great idea, and who in 2013 wanted us to bomb Syria and topple a secular government that was fighting ISIS.

UK Defense Secretary Michael Fallon (who voted for the Iraq war in 2003), raised the specter last week of Putin targeting the Baltic States. “I’m worried about Putin. I’m worried about his pressure on the Baltics, the way he is testing NATO,” Fallon said. “It’s a very real and present danger,” the Minister went on, just in case we still didn’t appreciate the Russian ‘threat’. “He (Putin) flew two Russian bombers down the English Channel two weeks ago. We had to scramble jets very quickly to see them off. It’s the first time since the height of the Cold War; it’s the first time that’s happened.” Sir Adrian Bradshaw, the NATO Deputy Supreme Commander in Europe, went even further than Fallon, saying that “the threat from Russia” represented “an existential threat to our whole being.”

Meanwhile, the former Air Chief Marshall Lord Jock Stirrup raised the horrifying prospect that civilian planes containing holidaymakers could be brought down by Russian jets. In case these warnings weren’t enough to give us palpitations the so-called Russophobic hack pack – the group of mutually-adoring propagandists who obsess about Russia – weighed in to reinforce the message that we all ought to be jolly scared about Putin. [One] commenter provided useful advice on “How to stop Putin nuking us all” (which includes blocking RT). While ordinary people in Britain struggle to make ends meet, for theelite, the big burning question of the day is not “What can we do to reduce bus and train fares?” but “How can we can deal with the Russian ‘threat?’”.

“Can the UK handle the Bear threat from Russia? “asked the Independent. “With bad guys about, you can’t ignore defense” was the title of one comment piece in Rupert Murdoch’s Times. “Putin’s war on the West” was the cover story of the Economist. “As Ukraine suffers, it is time to recognize the gravity of the Russian threat – and to counter it.. The EU and NATO are Mr. Putin’s ultimate targets.” Very helpfully, amid all these concerns, the BBC News website ran an article entitled “How to spot a Russian bomber.” I printed the guide out and thanks to it I was able to rule out the possibility that the plane flying over my local playing fields was a Tupolev Tu-22M3 and was able to sleep easily in my bed that night.

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And now you know!

What Is Money And How Is It Created? (Steve Keen)

[..] Only one person ever really did work out what money really is.—and no, it wasn’t Ayn Rand. It was Augusto Graziani, an Italian Professor of Economics, who died early last year. He understood what money is because he posed and correctly answered a simple question: how does a monetary economy differ from one in which trade occurs by barter? This ruled out gold being money, since gold is a commodity that anyone can produce for themselves with a bit of mining (and a lot of luck). So even though gold is really special and incredibly rare, it is in the end, a commodity: an economy using gold for trade is really a barter economy, not a monetary one. As Graziani put it:

a true monetary economy is inconsistent with the presence of a commodity money. A commodity money is by definition a kind of money that any producer can produce for himself. But an economy using as money a commodity coming out of a regular process of production, cannot be distinguished from a barter economy. A true monetary economy must therefore be using a token money, which is nowadays a paper currency. [He wrote this in 1989, before our modern electronic money system had developed]

That doesn’t rule out a world in which gold is used as the basis for commerce of course: it just says that that’s not a monetary economy. Those who say we’d be better off “going back to gold” are really saying that they don’t like a monetary economy, and reckon we would be better off in a barter economy instead. Identifying money as a paper token wasn’t enough, however, since there are some paper tokens—such as a “bill of exchange”—which are used in transactions, but leave a debt obligation between the buyer and the seller. An economy using bills of exchange was not a monetary economy, Graziani argued, but a credit economy:

If in a credit economy at the end of the period some agents still owe money to other ones, a final payment is needed, which means that no money has been used.

So to be money, the token given in exchange for a good must be accepted as a final payment—but this carried the danger that whoever produced the token might be able to “get something for nothing”. In an ideal system, this had to be ruled out as well.

This gave Graziani three basic conditions that had to be met for something to be called “money”:

a) money has to be a token currency (otherwise it would give rise to barter and not to monetary exchanges);

b) money has to be accepted as a means of final settlement of the transaction (otherwise it would be credit and not money);

c) money must not grant privileges of seignorage to any agent making a payment.

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“The euro is more than just money. It is talismatic for the Greeks. It was only when we joined the euro that we felt truly European. There was always a nagging doubt before.. ”

Humiliated Greece Eyes Byzantine Pivot As Crisis Deepens (AEP)

Greece’s new currency designs are ready. The green 50 drachma note features Cornelius Castoriadis, the Marxisant philosopher and sworn enemy of privatisation. The Nobel poet Odysseus Elytis – voice of Eastward-looking Hellenism – honours the 200 note. The bills rise to 10,000 drachma, a wise precaution lest there is a hyperinflationary shock as Greece breaks out of its debt-deflation trap at high velocity. The amateur blueprints are a minor sensation in Greek artistic circles. They are only half in jest. Greece’s Syriza radicals have signed a fragile ceasefire with the eurozone’s creditor powers. Few think this can last as escalating deadlines reach their kairotic moment in June. Each side has agreed to a deception with equal cynicism, knowing that the interim deal evades the true nature of Greece’s crisis and cannot bridge the immense political divide.

They have bought time, but not much. “I am the finance minister of a bankrupt country,” says Yanis Varoufakis, the rap-artist Keynesian with a mission to correct all of Europe’s economic ills. First he has to deal with his own liquidity crisis. Tax arrears have reached €74bn, rising by €1.1bn a month. “This isn’t tax evasion. These are normal people who can’t pay because they are in distress,” he told the Telegraph. The Greek Orthodox Church is struggling to pick up the pieces. “The local councils can’t cope, so people come to us for food,” said Father Nicolaos of St Panourios parish in a working-class district of West Athens. “We’re feeding 270 people and it is getting worse every day. Today we discovered three young children going through rubbish bins for food. They are living in a derelict building and we have no idea who they are,” he said, sitting in a cramped office packed with bags of bread and supplies.

“We rely on donations from the local bakery. If we run out of beans or lentils, I put out a call, and everybody brings in what they can. There is this spirit of solidarity because nobody feels immune,” he said. His poor parish in Drapetsova was built by refugees from Smyrna and Pontus, victims of the “Catastrophe” in 1922, when ethnic cleansing extinguished the ancient Greek communities of Asia Minor. He lovingly showed me the historic icons and prayer books they hauled with them in wagons, now in the church basement. The utility companies have been cutting off the electricity as arrears rise – and sometimes the water too – leaving 300,000 Greeks in the dark. “They come and ask for candles. They can’t use their fridge. They can’t cook. Their children can’t do their homework,” he said. It is almost a description of a failed state.

Restoring electricity is the first order of business in Syriza’s “Thessaloniki programme”, along with food stamps, a halt to property foreclosures, and a month’s extra pension for the less affluent. Father Nicolaos urged Syriza to stand its ground. “Yes, we Greeks played our own part in our downfall, but Europe played its part too. We must not sell out at any cost, or sell our monuments to pay our debts. We must fight,” he said. Syriza has a peculiar mandate. The Greeks voted for defiance, and also to stay in the euro, two objectives that are hard to reconcile. Views are divided over which emotion runs deeper, therefore which way the inscrutable Alexis Tsipras will pivot. The boyish prime minister has yet to show his hand. “When it comes to the choice, I fear Tsipras will abandon our programme rather than give up the euro,” said one Syriza MP, glancing cautiously around in case anybody was listening as we drank coffee in the “conspiracy” canteen of the Greek parliament.

“The euro is more than just money. It is talismatic for the Greeks. It was only when we joined the euro that we felt truly European. There was always a nagging doubt before,” he said. “But you can’t fight austerity without confronting the eurozone directly. You have to be willing to leave. It is going to take a long time for the party to accept this bitter reality. I think the euro was a tremendous historic mistake, and the sooner they get rid of it, the better for all the peoples of Europe, but that is not the party view,” he said.

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“They’ve given us our voice back,” “For the first time there’s a feeling that we have a government that is defending our interests.”

Poll Surge For Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza As Greeks Learn To Smile Again (Guardian)

Alexis Tsipras’ left-led government may be the bane of Europe’s political establishment, but in Greece support is soaring as Athens’ new political class negotiates the country’s economic plight. One month and three days after the tough-talking firebrand assumed power, Greeks of all political persuasions appear to like what they see. A Metron Analysis poll published on Saturday showed popularity ratings for the prime minister’s radical left Syriza party at an all-time high: from the almost 36% it won in snap polls on 25 January, support for Syriza has jumped to 47.6%, a record for a movement that only three years ago was on margins of Greek politics. In a triumphant address Tsipras attributed the surge to restored pride after five rollercoaster years of being humbled and humiliated by the debt-stricken nation’s worst economic crisis in modern times.

“The Greek people feels it is regaining the dignity that it has been doubted and denied,” the leader told Syriza’s central committee at the weekend. “From the very first day of the new [coalition] government, Greece stopped being a pariah, executing orders and enforcing memorandums,” he said, referring to the EU- and IMF-sponsored bailout accords Athens signed to keep afloat. On the street, optimism has returned. People worn down by gruelling austerity, on the back of unprecedented recession, are smiling. Government officials have taken to walking through central Athens, instead of ducking into chauffeur-driven cars to avoid protesters. Last week, finance minister Yanis Varoufakis – a maverick to many of his counterparts – was mobbed by appreciative voters as he ambled across Syntagma square.

“They’ve given us our voice back,” said Dimitris Stathokostopoulos, a prominent entrepreneur. “For the first time there’s a feeling that we have a government that is defending our interests. Germany needs to calm down. Austerity hasn’t worked. Wherever it has been applied it has spawned poverty, unemployment, absolute catastrophe.” The approval is all the more extraordinary, given the policy U-turns the anti-austerity government has been forced to make – concessions that have sparked fierce opposition within the ranks of Syriza. Faced with the reality of governing, Tsipras has dropped demands for a reduction of the country’s monumental debt; agreed to continued supervision by auditors at the EU, ECB and IMF (now named “the institutions” rather than the maligned “troika”); and abandoned pre-election pledges by promising not to take “unilateral” steps that might throw the budget off-balance.

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“We have not discussed anything with the Greek side,” a European official told Sunday’s Kathimerini..”

Greece’s Lenders Skeptical On New Bills But Focus On Funding Needs (Kathimerini)

European officials have expressed concern that the Greek government has not consulted with its partners over its plans to bring new legislation to Parliament this week but the greatest focus appears to be on how Athens will cover its immediate funding needs. “We have not discussed anything with the Greek side,” a European official told Sunday’s Kathimerini after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced on Friday night that four bills would be tabled in the House this week. In a televised address to his cabinet, Tsipras said that four draft laws would be unveiled this week in order to tackle the social impact of the crisis, to introduce a new payment scheme for overdue debts to the state, to protect primary residences from foreclosures and to reopen public broadcaster ERT.

At the Eurogroup on February 20, Greece and its lenders agreed that the government would not adopt any measures unilaterally that “would negatively impact fiscal targets, economic recovery or financial stability, as assessed by the institutions.” It is not clear if Greece’s creditors believe that the bills due to be submitted to Parliament this week fall into this category but sources suggested that there is concern about the lack of of communication between Athens and its partners. However, the immediate problem that must be overcome is ensuring that the government can meet its funding needs over the next few months, starting with a €1.6 billion payment to the IMF in March.

On Saturday, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis went as far saying that Athens would try to negotiate the summer payment of €6.7 billion worth of Greek bonds held by the ECB. “Shouldn’t we negotiate this? We will fight it,” he told Skai TV. “If we had the money we would pay… They know we don’t have it.” Greece’s lenders, however, believe that they may be able to use this inability to pay to their advantage and pressure the government to carry out reforms before the country’s funding needs become less significant. “Now is the time that we can exercise pressure on the Greek government,” a European official told Kathimerini.

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“.. the ECB repayments are in a different league and we shall have to determine this in association with our partners and the institutions.”

Greece To Prioritize IMF Repayments But Wants Talks On ECB-held Bonds (AP)

Greece will prioritize debt repayments to the International Monetary Fund, some of which come due in March, but repayments to the European Central Bank are «in a different league» and will need discussion with Greece’s creditors, the country’s finance minister said Saturday. In an interview with The Associated Press, Yanis Varoufakis also said Athens intends to start discussions with its creditors on debt rescheduling in order to make the country’s massive debt sustainable, at the same time as working on reform measures that need to be cemented by April, the finance minister said Saturday.

“The IMF repayments of course we are going to prioritize, we are not going to be the first country not to meet our obligations to the IMF,» the 53-year-old said, speaking in his office in the finance ministry overlooking Athens’ central square and the country’s parliament. “We shall squeeze blood out of stone if we need to do this on our own, and we shall do it.” However, “the ECB repayments are in a different league and we shall have to determine this in association with our partners and the institutions.” The ECB has always insisted on full repayment and it’s not clear they would accept a rescheduling.

Greece faces IMF repayments in March of about €1.5 billion, and about €6.7 billion to the ECB in the summer. But it is facing a cash crunch and will struggle with scheduled repayment of its debts. Athens wouldn’t ask for a delay in repayment in its ECB obligations, the minister noted, but rather something that would make the repayments easier to achieve. “I do not believe the ECB would accept a delay, but what we can do is we can package a deal that makes these repayments palatable and reasonably doable as part of our overall negotiation regarding the Greek debt, and the next … contract for growth for the Greek economy between us and the partners.”

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Almost kissed him.

Schäuble Softens Tone On Greece and Varoufakis (AFP)

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Sunday Greece’s new government needs «a bit of time» but is committed to implementing necessary reforms to resolve its debt crisis. “The new Greek government has strong public support,» Schaeuble said in an interview with German newspaper Bild am Sonntag. “I am confident that it will put in place the necessary measures, set up a more efficient tax system and in the end honour its commitments. “You have to give a little bit of time to a newly elected government,» he told the Sunday paper. «To govern is to face reality.”

Schaeuble also insisted that his Greek counterpart Yanis Varoufakis, despite their policy differences, had «behaved most properly with me» and had «the right to as much respect as everyone else». mIt was a marked change in tone for the strait-laced Schaeuble, who has repeatedly exchanged barbs with Varoufakis, his virtual opposite in both style and politics, since January’s watershed Greek elections brought in an anti-austerity government. Schaeuble last week sternly warned that Greece would not receive «a single euro» until it meets the pledges of its existing €240 billion bailout programme.

But he put his weight behind a four-month extension, to the end of June, approved overwhelmingly by the German parliament on Friday after a complex compromise reached between eurozone finance ministers and Athens. In exchange, Greece has pledged to implement reforms and savings. Schaeuble reiterated the ground rules for the aid programme extension, stressing that «Greece must meet its commitments. Only then will it receive the promised aid payments.” Asked about repeated comments from the new Greek government against austerity measures and for a debt haircut, Schaeuble said that «contracts are more important than statements».

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Technocrats are sore losers.

Greek PM Accuses Spain, Portugal of Anti-Athens ‘Axis’ (Reuters)

Greece’s leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras accused Spain and Portugal on Saturday of leading a conservative conspiracy to topple his anti-austerity government, saying they feared their own radical forces before elections this year. Tsipras also rejected criticism that Athens had staged a climbdown to secure an extension of its financial lifeline from the euro zone, saying anger among German conservatives showed that his government had won concessions. Greeks have directed much of their fury about years of austerity dictated by international creditors at Germany, the biggest contributor to their country’s €240 billion bailout.

But in a speech to his Syriza party, Tsipras turned on Madrid and Lisbon, accusing them of taking a hard line in negotiations which led to the euro zone extending the bailout program last week for four months. “We found opposing us an axis of powers … led by the governments of Spain and Portugal which for obvious political reasons attempted to lead the entire negotiations to the brink,” said Tsipras, who won an election on Jan. 25. “Their plan was and is to wear down, topple or bring our government to unconditional surrender before our work begins to bear fruit and before the Greek example affects other countries,” he said, adding: “And mainly before the elections in Spain.”

Spain’s new anti-establishment Podemos movement has topped some opinion polls, making it a serious threat to the conservative People’s Party of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in an election which must be held by the end of this year. Rajoy went to Athens less than a fortnight before the Greek election to warn voters against believing the “impossible” promises of Syriza. His appeal fell on deaf ears and voters swept the previous conservative premier from power. Portugal will also have elections after the summer but no anti-austerity force as potent as Syriza or Podemos has so far emerged there.

In an interview published before Tsipras made his speech, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho denied that Portugal had taken a hard line in negotiations on the Greek deal at the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers. “There may have been a political intention to create this idea, but it is not true,” he told the Expresso weekly newspaper. Passos Coelho aligned himself with euro zone governments which have called for policies to promote economic growth but without trying to walk away from austerity as in Greece. “We were on the same side as the French government, with the Italian and Irish governments. I think it’s bad to stigmatize southern European countries,” he said.

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“It sounds very awkward in a sense, but if you look at it more, the central bank has a deposit rate in negative territory, and there’s a huge bond-buying program coming.”

Eurozone Negative-Yield Bond Universe Expands to $1.9 Trillion (Bloomberg)

The European Central Bank’s imminent bond-buying plan has left $1.9 trillion of the euro region’s government securities with negative yields. Germany sold five-year notes at an average yield of minus 0.08% on Wednesday, a euro-area record, meaning investors buying the securities will get less back than they paid when the debt matures in April 2020. By the next day, German notes with a maturity out to seven years had sub-zero yields, while rates on seven other euro-area nations’ debt were also negative. While some bonds had such yields as far back as 2012, the phenomenon has gathered pace since the ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate to below zero last year. Even when investors extend maturities, and move away from the region’s core markets, returns are becoming increasingly meager.

Ireland’s 10-year yield slid below 1% for the first time this week, Portugal’s dropped below 2%, while Spanish and Italian rates also tumbled to records. “It is something that many would not have pictured a year ago,” said Jan von Gerich at Nordea Bank in Helsinki. “It sounds very awkward in a sense, but if you look at it more, the central bank has a deposit rate in negative territory, and there’s a huge bond-buying program coming. People are holding on to these bonds and so you don’t have many willing sellers.” 88 of the 346 securities in the Bloomberg Eurozone Sovereign Bond Index have negative yields, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Euro-area bonds make up about 80% of the $2.35 trillion of negative-yielding assets in the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index, the data show.

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Huge disgrace. But since when would the US government take that as an insult?

US Cuts Off Student-Loan Collectors for Misleading Debtors (Bloomberg)

The U.S. Education Department, citing “inaccurate representations” to student-loan borrowers, will end debt-collection contracts with Navient and four other companies. Representatives of these companies, which pursue students who default on their loans, made misleading statements about programs that help borrowers get back on track, the agency said in a statement late Friday. The companies include Pioneer Credit Recovery, a unit of Navient, which was split off last year from SLM, commonly known as Sallie Mae, the largest U.S. education finance company. “Federal Student Aid borrowers are entitled to accurate information as they make critical choices to manage their debt,” Under Secretary Ted Mitchell said in a statement. “Every company that works for the Department must keep consumers’ best interests at the heart of their business practices by giving borrowers clear and accurate guidance.”

The government turns to 22 debt-collection companies to put the squeeze on borrowers who are defaulting on their loans. In 2012, Bloomberg News reported that the private contractors chasing these debts collected about $1 billion annually in commissions and faced growing complaints that they were insisting on stiff payments, even when borrowers’ incomes make them eligible for leniency. Pioneer said in a statement that the Education Department has conducted 17 exams since the beginning of 2014, listening to 600 phone calls, and had not raised concerns about the company’s rates of inaccurate or misleading information to borrowers. In April, it received written confirmation from the agency that its policies complied with regulation.

“We were blindsided by the Department of Education’s actions,” Pioneer said. Navient’s revenue from collecting for the Education Department totaled $65 million last year. The agency said it will “wind down” its contracts with the five companies and transfer their business to other agencies with contracts. The four other companies losing contracts are Coast Professional, Enterprise Recovery Systems, National Recoveries and West Asset Management, according to the statement. Those companies couldn’t be reached for comment after business hours. “This is a huge step forward for student loan borrowers who are too often the victims of dishonest debt-collection practices,” Maggie Thompson, campaign manager for Higher Ed, Not Debt, said in a statement. “We are happy the Department of Education protected borrowers by ending the contracts of some of the most abusive debt collectors in the business.”

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End of the Ponzi.

Shadow Banking Shrinks to Least Since 2000 as Liquidity Declines (Bloomberg)

The financing markets that grease the wheels of most debt trading have contracted to the smallest in 15 years as liquidity declines, adding to concern U.S. economic stability is at risk. The amount, known as shadow banking, was $4.13 trillion last month, down from a peak of $7.61 trillion in March 2008, according to data compiled by the Center for Financial Stability, a nonpartisan research group. The CFS measure, which includes money-market funds, repurchase agreements and commercial paper, all adjusted for the impact of inflation, is at the lowest since January 2000.

“Market finance is suffering, and it has been inextricably linked to growth in the economy and financial stability,” Lawrence Goodman, president of CFS and author of the report, said. “The fact that we are seeing bumps in varying asset classes suggests that cracks are evident in the financial system. In part, this is a direct function of limited liquidity.” Global regulators have focused on reducing the footprint of shadow banking, which was viewed as a catalyst for the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 that shook markets worldwide, accelerating the financial crisis. In the process, market finance has contracted to an “excessively steep” degree that “starves financial markets from needed liquidity and is detrimental to future growth,” according to a Feb. 25 report from the CFS.

Repurchase agreements, or repos, are a source of short-term finance for banks, allowing them to use securities as collateral for short-term loans from investors such as other banks or money-market mutual funds. The amount of securities financed through a part of the market known as tri-party repo fell to an average $1.58 trillion as of Jan. 12, from $1.96 trillion in December 2012, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve. Tighter market liquidity and a resulting surge in volatility were both on display Oct. 15, when Treasuries suddenly careened through the biggest yield fluctuations in a quarter-century without being spurred by any concrete news. While that extreme loss of liquidity in Treasuries has faded, the day-to-day dealings in 10-year Treasuries have worsened this year, according to analysis by Deutsche Bank.

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“The people – those plain people who think economics is about supply and demand rather than complicated math formulas – deserve some level of sway over the Fed’s operations..”

Fed Independence Is A Joke, So Why Not Audit? (Freedomworks)

If Janet Yellen didn’t resemble a bookwormish teetotaler, perhaps she’d join her colleagues in a toast to suppressing democratic accountability. For now, she’ll order a club soda while working vigorously to keep Congress, and thus the people, out of her business of running the country’s central bank. Yellen has only been Chair of the Federal Reserve for one year, but she’s already facing pressure to open the books from the new Congress. Leading the charge are two statesmen from Kentucky: Representative Thomas Massie and Senator Rand Paul. Both have introduced audit the Fed legislation in their respective chambers. Wall Street’s cadre of financial oligarchs are predictably up in arms over an audit of their free money machine.

Think tankers are antagonizing the campaign, with Jim Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute asserting that Sen. Paul has “a poor understanding of what’s actually on the Fed balance sheet and how the bank operates.” It’s expected President Obama would veto an audit the Fed bill. Even local bankers are scaremongering over the prospect of the Fed losing autonomy. Yellen, for her part, isn’t about to let the nosy wolves in her henhouse. In a recent interview, she said she would stand “forcefully” against any audit measures. She justified her intransigence by citing the importance of “central bank independence” and being able to act without interference. Nothing says limited government and separation of powers like a bureaucracy unaccountable to the voice of the people! Then again, Yellen doesn’t care much for democratic oversight.

She’s a caricature of Randian libertarianism: someone who wants to do whatever, whenever, without rulers. The problem is Yellen isn’t operating a private railroad company. She’s the figurehead for a government institution created by Congress. If democracy means anything, it’s that voters have some measure of control over political bureaucracies. So apologies Janet, you don’t operate in a bubble (insert Fed pun here). The people – those plain people who think economics is about supply and demand rather than complicated math formulas – deserve some level of sway over the Fed’s operations. So why not an audit by the Government Accountability Office? Last I heard, President Obama was all about accountability. Yellen and company aren’t buying it. They don’t want anyone butting in on their micromanagement of the money supply. Outside observers would interfere with the Fed’s independence, which is a sacrament of the central bank.

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Bub. Ble.

China Factory Sector Still Shrinking, Official PMI Shows (Reuters)

Activity in China’s factory sector contracted for a second straight month in February on unsteady exports and slowing investment, an official survey showed on Sunday, reinforcing bets that more policy loosening is needed to lift the economy. The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched up to 49.9 in February from January’s 49.8, a whisker below the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a weaker reading of 49.7. A separate official services PMI, also released on Sunday, showed growth in the sector accelerated to 53.9, up from 53.7 in January. Accounting for 48% of China’s $10.2 trillion economy last year, the services sector has weathered the growth downturn better than factories, partly because it depends less on foreign demand.

The official PMIs were released shortly after China’s central bank cut interest rates late on Saturday, the latest effort to support the world’s second-largest economy as its momentum slows and deflation risks rise. The PMIs are the last official Chinese data to come out before the opening this week of the annual session of China’s legislature, where leaders will announce a growth target for 2015. The final February reading for the HSBC manufacturing PMI survey will be announced on Monday. The flash estimate showed factory growth edged up to a four-month high in February, but export orders shrank at their fastest rate in 20 months. To boost a sagging economy, China’s central bank lowered the reserve requirement – the ratio of cash that banks must set aside as reserves – in February for the first time in over two years.

That was after it had cut interest rates in November, also for the first time in more than two years. Despite the raft of stimulus moves, a newspaper owned by the central bank warned on Wednesday that China is dangerously close to slipping into deflation, highlighting the nervousness among policymakers about a sputtering economy that is not gaining speed. A housing slump, erratic growth in exports and a state-led slowdown in investment to help restructure China’s economy dragged growth to 7.4% last year – a level not seen since 1990. Reflecting China’s “new normal” of slower but better-quality growth, economists at state think-tanks with knowledge of policy discussions said the government is likely to lower its 2015 economic growth target to around 7%, from last year’s 7.5%.

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Ha. Ha.: “Customers are taking a cautious approach until there is more certainty as to when oil prices will recover..”

Crude Price Shock Sends Canadian Oil Service Companies Into Whirlwind (RT)

The crude oil price collapse has forced some Canadian oil service companies to cut their workforces, budgets, and salaries, as their energy-producing customers have been struggling with their own budget cuts and market uncertainty. Calfrac Well Services and Trican Well Service, both based out of Calgary, are two of the most recent examples of companies showing signs of a struggle amid a slowdown in drilling activity across North America. Oilfield services and hydraulic fracturing company Calfrac announced on Wednesday that it will cut over $25 million from its general and administrative costs, as it released its fourth quarter revenue report. The firm will be slashing executive salaries by around 10% and directors’ pay by 20% starting in April. Calfrac was also forced to shut down its operations in Colombia.

“As a result of the decline in crude oil prices, the company’s customers in Canada and the United States have lowered their 2015 capital budgets in the order of 20 to 40 per cent from 2014,” Calfrac’s president and chief executive, Fernando Aguilar, told analysts. The biggest concern is how cheaper crude will impact equipment utilization and pricing in 2015. “Customers are taking a cautious approach until there is more certainty as to when oil prices will recover,” Aguilar added. One of Calfrac’s biggest competitors, Trican, announced similar cuts – including slashing salaries and costs – after cutting 600 positions. All Canadian and US employees will receive a 10% cut in average compensation, according to the firm’s press release.

Oil prices have plummeted by at least 50% since the summer. The situation was made worse when OPEC opted not to cut its daily output levels in November. In reaction to new oil price projections, the Bank of Canada (BoC) unexpectedly cut its interest rate to 0.75% in January, with markets pricing in another rate cut in March. The central bank also lowered its economic growth and inflation forecasts, warning of widespread negative effects of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy. Just last week, BoC Deputy Governor Agathe Cote stressed the significance of the oil-price shock. “This shock will delay the economy’s return to full capacity by undermining both investment in the oil sector and gross domestic income,” she said, noting that personal wealth is likely to be reduced and interprovincial trade affected.

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And counting.

Ukraine Pays Gazprom $15 Million For 24 Hours Worth Of Gas (RT)

Ukraine’s Naftogaz has paid Gazprom $15 million for gas delivery. At current levels, the prepayment covers one day’s gas consumption and will be spent by Tuesday, Gazprom spokesperson Sergey Kupriyanov said. “Today at 9:20am MSK Gazprom received a payment from Ukraine’s Naftogaz in the amount of $15 million. At the current level of supply this sum will be enough roughly for one day,” he said. “If Naftogaz paid for another 24 hours, it means the resources would last through Monday till Tuesday,” he said. The relatively small prepayment suggests Kiev is buying time before trilateral talks in Brussels on march 2nd. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak had warned Kiev’s failure to pre-pay would mean a cut-off.

In a letter sent to Gazprom late Wednesday, Naftogaz said it had a total of 206 million cubic meters of Russian gas pre-paid. “The concerns and worries are caused first of all by the fact that not much prepaid gas is left. If there is no money the supplies will stop starting from Tuesday,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. “The payment should be completed Friday so that the gas is supplied starting from Tuesday,” Novak said. “If there is no payment there will be a break in gas supplies to Ukraine. The European consumers will fully receive gas.” “We are worried about the situation with the problem of prepayment for the gas delivery. On Friday morning, the rest of the gas, prepaid by Ukraine, accounted for 123.8 mln cubic meters.

Taking into consideration the fact that on the average we supply [Ukraine] with 42 mln cubic meters, without DPR and LPR [Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic], in fact, the remains of the gas will be enough only for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday,” Novak said, according to RIA-Novosti. In a new gas standoff, deliveries to the conflict-plagued Donbass region have become a new bone of contention between Russian and Ukraine. Last week Kiev suspended deliveries to the area, citing damage to the pipeline. Russia then launched a separate gas supply to Donbass, with President Vladimir Putin saying that cutting the war zone off gas “smells like genocide.” Gazprom said Thursday it was ready to separate gas supplies to Ukraine and Donbass.

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Europe better watch out.

Mass Anti-Immigration Rally In Rome (BBC)

Thousands of supporters of Italy’s Northern League have poured into one of Rome’s biggest squares for a rally against immigration, the EU and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s government. League leader Matteo Salvini accused Mr Renzi of substituting the country’s interests to those of the EU. He also criticised the government’s record in dealing with Romanian truck drivers, tax, banks and big business. A large counter-demonstration against Mr Salvini was also held in Rome. Opinion polls suggest that Mr Salvini is rapidly gaining in popularity. They show him as being second only to Mr Renzi, prompting some to dub him as “the other Matteo”.

The Northern League was once a strong ally of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, but it has sought to find new allies as he struggles to shake off a tax fraud conviction that forced him out of parliament. Mr Salvini’s fiery rhetoric against the European Union, immigration and austerity politics had led to comparisons being drawn between him and French National Front leader Marine Le Pen. The counter-demonstration staged by an alliance of leftist parties, anti-racism campaigners and gay rights groups was held only a few hundred metres from the Northern League rally. Many protested under the banner “Never with Salvini”.

“The problem isn’t Renzi, Renzi is a pawn, Renzi is a dumb slave, at the disposal of some nameless person who wants to control all our lives from Brussels,” Mr Salvini told the rally at the Piazza del Popolo. He told his supporters that the prime minister was the “foolish servant” of Brussels. Mr Salvini spoke of a “different Europe, where banks count for less, and citizens and small businessmen count for more”. “I want to change Italy. I want the Italian economy to be able to move forward again, something that is obstructed by Brussels and mad European policies,” he said, describing the government’s immigration policies as “a disaster”.

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A fine man.

Uruguay Bids Farewell To Jose Mujica, Its Pauper President (BBC)

Whatever your own particular “shade” of politics, it’s impossible not to be impressed or beguiled by Jose “Pepe” Mujica. There are idealistic, hard-working and honest politicians the world over – although cynics might argue they’re a small minority – but none of them surely comes anywhere close to the outgoing Uruguayan president when it comes to living by one’s principles. It’s not just for show. Mujica’s beat-up old VW Beetle is probably one of the most famous cars in the world and his decision to forego the luxury of the Presidential Palace is not unique – his successor, Tabare Vasquez, will also probably elect to live at home. But when you visit “Pepe” at his tiny, one-storey home on the outskirts of Montevideo you realise that the man is as good as his word.

Wearing what could best be described as “casual” clothes – I don’t think he’s ever been seen wearing a tie – Mujica seats himself down on a simple wooden stool in front of a bookshelf that seems on the verge of collapsing under the weight of biographies and mementoes from his political adversaries and allies. Books are important to the former guerrilla fighter who spent a total of 13 years in jail, two of them lying at the bottom of an old horse trough. It was an experience that almost broke him mentally and which shaped his transformation from fighter to politician. “I was imprisoned in solitary [confinement] so the day they put me on a sofa I felt comfortable!” Mujica jokes. “I’ve no doubt that had I not lived through that I would not be who I am today. Prison, solitary confinement had a huge influence on me. I had to find an inner strength. I couldn’t even read a book for seven, eight years – imagine that!”

Given his past, it’s perhaps understandable why Mujica gives away about 90% of his salary to charity, simply because he “has no need for it”. A little bit grumpy to begin with, Mujcia warms to his task as he describes being perplexed by those who question his lifestyle. “This world is crazy, crazy! People are amazed by normal things and that obsession worries me!” Not afraid to take a swipe at his fellow leaders, he adds: “All I do is live like the majority of my people, not the minority. I’m living a normal life and Italian, Spanish leaders should also live as their people do. They shouldn’t be aspiring to or copying a rich minority.”

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If only Al Capone had known.

Why Iceland Banned Beer 100 Years Ago (BBC)

.. for much of the 20th Century it was unpatriotic – and illegal – to drink beer. When full prohibition became law 100 years ago, alcohol in general was frowned upon, and beer was especially out of favour – for political reasons. Iceland was engaged in a struggle for independence from Denmark at the time, and Icelanders strongly associated beer with Danish lifestyles. “The Danes were drinking eight times as much alcohol per person on a yearly basis at the time,” says historian Stefan Palsson, author of Beer: Around the World in 120 Pints. As a result, beer was “not the patriotic drink of choice”. The independence and temperance movements reinforced each other, and in 1908, four years after gaining home rule, Iceland held a referendum on a proposal to outlaw all alcohol from 1915. About 60% voted in favour. Women, who still didn’t have the vote, were vocal in their support.

“Prohibition was seen as progressive, like smoking [bans] today,” says Palsson. It didn’t take long for Prohibition to be undermined. Smuggling, home-brew and ambassadors lobbying for alcohol to oil the wheels of diplomacy all played a part. “Doctors started prescribed alcohol as medicine and they did so in huge quantities, for more or less everything. Wine if you had bad nerves, and for the heart, cognac,” says Palsson. But beer was never “what the doctor ordered”, despite the argument some put forward that it was a good treatment for malnourishment. “The head doctor put his foot down and said beer did not qualify as a medicine under any circumstances,” Palsson says.

There were other leaks in the Prohibition armour too. “Prohibition supporters complained that painters who never used to use spirits to clean their brushes were now getting litres and litres each year,” says Palsson. “So alcohol was flowing in from all directions.” Then the Spanish threatened to stop importing salted cod – Iceland’s most profitable export at the time – if Iceland did not buy its wine. Politicians bowed to the pressure and legalised red and rose wines from Spain and Portugal in 1921. Over time, support for prohibition dwindled. It had already been repealed by all the other European nations that had experimented with it (apart from the Faroe Islands) when in 1933 Icelanders voted to reverse course.

But even then the ban remained in force for beer containing more than 2.25% alcohol (about half the strength of an average-strength beer). As beer was cheaper than wines or spirits, the fear was that legalising it would lead to a big rise in alcohol abuse. The association of beer with Denmark also continued to tarnish its image in a country that only achieved full independence in 1944. However, beer remained accessible, just about, to those who really wanted it. “If you knew a fisherman, he may have had a few cases stashed in his garage – usually the cheapest and strongest beer available, often stored too long,” says Palsson Also popular, according to Ingvarsson, was tipping brennivin (burning wine), a potato-based vodka, into non-alcoholic beer – which tasted, as he puts it, “interesting and totally disgusting”.

Read more …

Feb 192015
 
 February 19, 2015  Posted by at 4:51 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , ,  2 Responses »


DPC Snow removal – Ford tractor Washington, DC 1925

As Germany is set to reject a Greek loan extension request (and no, international press, that is not the same as an extension of the bailout program), Steve Keen uses proprietary numbers issued by the OECD – which is supposed to be on Germany’s side?! – to show how dramatically austerity has failed in Europe- that is, if the recovery of the Greek and Spanish economies was ever the real target. It certainly failed the populations of the countries.

The problem is that nobody, not even the OECD can for Germany to answer to a report. But that does not make the case that is made, any less obvious, or bitter for that matter. Not many people remain ready to think that Greece will do what it has said it will, but I think they have been very consistent in their stated goals, and people get distracted too much by semantics at their own peril.

As Steve shows, and Syriza proclaims, more of the same is not on the table, for good reason. It will and can only make matters worse for Greece. Germany – and the ECB – choose to entirely ignore the consequences of their theories, in particular the humanitarian crisis they have caused in Greece. And any political union that ignores the misery it unloads upon its citizens has a short shelf life.

I see a majority voices out there claiming that Syriza is busy capitulating, but I don’t think that. They’ve always said they are willing to go far to reach consensus with Brussels in order to stay in the EU and eurozone. And that’s what they’re showing. In the world of political dealing and scheming, the Greeks have been remarkable consistent; so much so that this is itself leads people to claim they are not.

But I still wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Varoufakis has long come to the conclusion that the eurozone must and will implode no matter what anybody does, and that he’s simply jockeying for the best position when the time comes to leave the eurozone.

Germany’s bullying- which is how its actions are being perceived by fast growing numbers of people – will come back to hurt it. The eurozone is made up of independent nations, most with their own specific culture and their own language. Trying to browbeat them all into submission, and yes, that is where Germany’s stance is leading, will only lead to much bigger trouble.

But first, it’s still ‘merely’ and economic issue, and it’s therefore the economic ideas behind EU policies that need to be discussed and revised. Unleashing misery on entire nations is indefensible not only from a humanitarian point of view, but also from a historical one. Who in the present context would know that better than Germany?

What Germany holds in its hands, but does not at all realize, is the survival of the European common currency. It must realize that the euro will fail if it tries only to dictate all policies to everyone at every turn. If Germany insists on applying the kind of dictatorship to Europe that it has been doing, the euro is dead. Both for political and historical reasons – nobody will accept being bullied by the Germans for long – and for economic reasons, because Germany’s economic ideas are simply too damaging for other eurozone nations.

Germany – and Holland – are so full of themselves at present – both the politicians and the people – that they are busy blowing up the EU, their cash cow, without realizing this even one moment.

If Greece gives in, Germany will have won, but its bully status will come to bite it in the face. European nations don’t accept bullying, and certainly not from Germany. It’ll be a Pyrrhic victory: the beginning of the end. If Greece however stands firm in its demands, it’s also curtains for the EU. If Greece leaves, it won’t leave alone.

Only the third option, Germany caving to Greek demands, can save the EU. But Merkel and Schäuble have prepped their people to such an extent with the wasteful lazy Greeks narrative that they would have a hard time explaining why they want to give in. The EU may thus fall victim to its own propaganda. That would be funny, no matter how tragic it is at the same time. But it would be an open invitation to the far right as well.

Steve Keen:

For Greece And Many Others, Economic Reform Is Bad For Your Economic Health

A quick quiz: which four countries do you think have done the most to reform their economies over the last seven years? OK, who said Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain? No one? Actually, someone did: the OECD. Yes, I kid you not, according to the OECD, the country that has done the most to reform its economy over the last seven years—that is, from before the 2008 economic crisis until well after it—is Greece. Followed at some distance by Portugal, Ireland and Spain.

I saw this in a tweet, and I simply had to go searching to see for myself. And there it was, on page 111 of the OECD’s publication Going For Growth 2015, released on February 9. The top economic reformers were the basket cases of Europe and the world in general. Unemployment in Greece is 27%; in Portugal it’s 15%, Ireland 12%, and Spain 25%. Those are very, very sick economies. And yet they are also the OECD’s top reformers.

You are, I hope, wondering “how come? Isn’t reform supposed to be good for you?” Well, that’s the fairy story—sorry, theory: reform your economies according to our recommendations, and—whatever else happens—your economy will grow more rapidly and be more stable to boot. Unfortunately for those purveying this fairytale, they also developed metrics by which the degree of reform could be measured, so that a decade later, we can compare the fairy story to the reality.

The EU program that Greece is currently refusing to continue implements part of what is known as the ”Stability and Growth Pact” or SGP—which a radio interviewer last week realized has (with just a slight rearrangement of the letters) a much more apt acronym of GASP. And the other countries that are also under the control of GASP include… Portugal, Ireland and Spain.

Greece is refusing to continue with this program, not because it is “refusing its medicine”, but because the medicine is actually poison. And Greece itself is not the proof of that: the other countries on this list are—especially Spain. Spain did everything that the GASP and mainstream economics recommended, not merely after the crisis but before it as well. The GASP required that member countries of the Eurozone have a government debt to GDP ratio of 60% or below, and run a maximum deficit of 3% or less of GDP.

Spain was doing both before the crisis. Its government debt ratio was below 60% from early 2000, and trending down—hitting a low of below 40% shortly after the crisis began.

Its deficit was even better—not only was it below 3% of GDP at the introduction of the Euro, by 2001 it was in surplus—hitting a peak of 2.5% of GDP in 2007.

Before the crisis hit, Spain was being lauded as a success story for the GASP, and superficially for good reason: not only was it following the GASP program by running surpluses, and reducing its government debt, its economy was booming. Unemployment, which had always been high, trended down from 12.5% at the start of the Euro to 8% by 2007. And then it all went pear-shaped.

This raises two questions, the answers to which cement the case that the EU’s austerity program should end everywhere—and not just in Greece. Firstly, how did Spain appear to be doing so well, and then collapse so badly? And did the EU’s policies contribute to Spain’s problems?

The answer to the first question involves what happened to the debt that GASP ignores (as do conventional economists everywhere): private debt. While the GASP imposed strict controls on government debt, it ignored the blowout in private debt on the erroneous argument that private debt is economically unimportant. Private debt rose from about 120% of GDP in early 2000 to over 200% by the time the crisis began, and peaked at 225% of GDP when the GASP’s austerity program kicked in, as Figure 5 shows.

The growth in private debt gave the economy an enormous boost as it financed Spain’s housing bubble, and the tax revenue from this bubble was the main reason that the government was in surplus from 2000 until the crisis hit. The rise in private debt dwarfed the decline in government debt, and the huge stimulus from private sector borrowing more than compensated for the drag on the economy from the government surplus. As the government was “salting away pennies”, the private sector was wallowing in new debt-financed spending.

But to do so, the private non-bank sector had to get more indebted to the banks—as Figure 5 shows. When growth in private debt turned around, the housing bubble collapsed and private sector borrowing went into free-fall. Then, and only then, did government debt rise—as increased government spending slightly compensated for the plunge in private debt-financed spending. Ultimately, by 2010, the stimulus from rising government spending slowed down the decline in private borrowing. But then austerity kicked in and the government stimulus stalled. Consequently the private sector went from mild deleveraging into heavy deleveraging—reducing its debt by as much as 20% of GDP per year.

Don’t get me wrong here: I am a critic of private debt financed spending when it finances Ponzi Schemes like Spain’s housing bubble, and I believe that sustained recovery will not happen until private debt levels are drastically reduced. But when a private debt bubble bursts, government spending attenuates the downturn. To limit the growth in the government deficit makes the crisis worse, without doing much to reduce private debt compared to GDP because GDP collapses along with the falling private debt.

So these crises—in the OECD’s pin-up countries of Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal—are the product of the EU’s policies. The only way out of the crisis is to end the policies themselves, as Greece is demanding now.

And if Syriza gives in and the EU’s policies are maintained? Then this will go from being an economic and social tragedy to a political one as well. If Syriza caves in, then the Greeks who voted for a left anti-austerity party will switch allegiance to a right anti-austerity party—the fascist Golden Dawn—because they will claim that only they have the balls to actually do in office what they promise in opposition.

Feb 192015
 
 February 19, 2015  Posted by at 1:20 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  2 Responses »


Russell Lee “Yreka, California, seat of a county rich in mineral deposits” 1942

The US Will Have To Bail Out Greece (MarketWatch)
Greece – It’s a Revolution, Stupid! (Mathew D. Rose)
Germany Rejects Greece’s Application To Extend Its Loan Agreement (CNBC)
Europe and Greece Are at War Over Nothing (Bloomberg ed.)
How I Became An Erratic Marxist (Yanis Varoufakis)
For Greece And Many Others, Economic Reform Kills Economic Health (Steve Keen)
February 24 To Be The First Crunch Day For Greek State Coffers (Kathimerini)
Greek Debt Payment Plan Offers Huge Haircut (Kathimerini)
Greek Philosophy: Conflict Of Ideas Driving The Crisis (CNBC)
Greece Runs Up The Austerity White Flag In Brussels (Guardian)
Besieged Ukraine Town Debaltseve Falls (Reuters)
‘Guantanamo of the East’: Ukraine Locks Up Refugees at EU’s Behest (Spiegel)
Ukraine Finance Minister’s American ‘Values’ (Robert Parry)
Are the World’s Biggest Banks Moving Money for Terrorists? (Bloomberg)

“The IMF looks to have abdicated all responsibility for fixing the mess.”

The US Will Have To Bail Out Greece (MarketWatch)

Fighting has flared up again in the Ukraine. The Egyptians are sending soldiers into Libya as another North African state collapses into chaos. The militants of Islamic State are spreading their influence across the region. You’d think Barack Obama might have bigger foreign policy issues to worry about than a small state of 10 million people on the eastern edges of the Mediterranean. But Greece may be about to turn from a European into an American problem. As the game of brinkmanship between the radical Syriza government elected last month and the European Union gets played out, it has become increasingly clear that both sides may have a strong interest in the talks failing. The IMF looks to have abdicated all responsibility for fixing the mess.

The worrying point is this: Both sides have an increasing interest in a catastrophic failure. But the U.S., with the U.K. perhaps in a subsidiary role, has an equally strong interest in a stable Greece. If a crunch comes, America will have no choice but to bail Greece out. How? It may well need to extend emergency loans, prop up its banks, and if necessary help it establish a new currency as well. On Monday, talks between Greece and the finance ministers of the eurozone ended chaotically. The Syriza government, led by the charismatic young Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, is committed to ending the austerity regime imposed on Athens by the EU and the IMF and is refusing to borrow any more money under the terms of the bailout agreement.

The rest of the EU, led by Germany, is standing firm. It may be willing to make some minor concessions, such as rebranding the loans or extending their duration. But it does not look willing to compromise on the core issue — that Greece has to stick to the austerity plan, and keep tight controls on public spending. There may still be a deal to be struck. Greece after all only accounts for a small percentage of the total eurozone economy. Its debts amount to just 315 billion euros, hardly a massive sum in the context of an economic bloc with a total gross domestic product of €9.5 trillion. But the worrying point is this: Both sides have an increasing interest in a catastrophic failure.

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“The German government has never wanted democratic reform in Greece..”

Greece – It’s a Revolution, Stupid! (Mathew D. Rose)

I fear most people have become so fixated on the Greek debt and the fate of the Euro, that they have completely ignored the political dimensions of the current conflict in Europe, shich are no less dramatic. The ongoing dispute between the German and Greek governments is nothing less than a democratic revolution against German hegemony and the attempt of the Germans and their paladins in the EU to dictate Greek domestic policy. It is a struggle by the Greeks to re-establish national sovereignty. What is more, this is the first time in the history of the EU that a political party with true leftist credentials has led a member nation. For reactionary Germany, with its neoliberal agenda, that is intolerable. This conflict is profound, if not existential, and thus could well be intractable.

The Greek people have made a decision to liberate themselves from a repressive regime of austerity and its incumbent humanitarian disaster. The Germans on the other hand refer to the developments of the past five years in Greece as a success. Yes, it has been a success in the sense that the Germans and French were able to rescue their banks and leave the Greek people to foot the bill. It was even more successful in that Greece was stripped of its political and economic autonomy – with the assistance of the quislings Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos. The German government has never wanted democratic reform in Greece, leaving the perpetrators of the Greek financial crisis, the political and financial elites, unscathed.

Success has meant Greece being reduced to a vassal state, raising the market above all other values, where multinational corporations, including German companies, could take over profitable state assets cheaply and German tourists could enjoy cut-rate holidays or buy holiday homes at bargain prices. What occurred in Greece with the bailout is an occupation, not with troops and panzers, but by financial means. Following the recent elections in Greece, Germany and its EU compradors are making it clear who is in charge. The Germans are currently not offering any compromise, but iterate the same blunt demand: Greece has to accept what is being dictated; in other words, capitulate or be annihilated. This time it will not be the Wehrmacht und Luftwaffe that are to force the Greek nation into submission, but a weapon just as lethal: national bankruptcy.

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“The letter does not meet the criteria agreed by the Eurogroup on Monday..”

Germany Rejects Greece’s Application To Extend Its Loan Agreement (CNBC)

Germany has rejected Greece’s application to extend its loan agreement and renegotiate the terms of its bailout, raising the very real threat of Athens running out of money in the coming weeks. The Berlin government Thursday said Greece’s application for a six-month extension of its loan and a renegotiation of some its terms was “no substantial solution.” “In truth it goes in the direction of a bridge financing, without fulfilling the demands of the program. The letter does not meet the criteria agreed by the Eurogroup on Monday,” German finance ministry spokesman Martin Jaeger said in a statement.

Earlier Thursday Athens had formally placed a request to prolong its “master financial assistance facility agreement.” In the proposal the left-leaning Syriza Party had offered a series of concessions to the previous hardline stance that it would unilaterally scrap the austerity measures imposed as part of the country’s €240 billion bailout. However, the Greek proposal Thursday had pledged to work with the EU and the IMF in reworking the terms of the bailout and to not make any unilateral decisions when it came to the terms of the austerity package.

The Eurogroup of finance ministers from the 19 countries that use the single currency is due to meet on Friday to discuss the Greek plan. There has to be unanimous agreement among the group for any policy decision to go ahea.d The current program – which included the EU and IMF as creditors – was due to expire in little more than a week. Without further funds, Greece would soon run out of money rasing the prospect of a default on its bonds and a possible exit from the euro zone.

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“The EU is staking the future of its monetary union not on principles but on semantics.”

Europe and Greece Are at War Over Nothing (Bloomberg ed.)

Even by the demanding standards of European dysfunction, the continuing standoff between Greece and the other euro countries is impressive. On substance, the distance between the two sides has narrowed almost to nothing — yet the stalemate and the risk of a new financial crisis drag on as if it were vast. The EU is staking the future of its monetary union not on principles but on semantics. Initially, the new Greek government was at fault for making reckless election promises and presenting these to its European Union partners as non-negotiable. It has since climbed down a long way – in particular, dropping its demand for big debt write-downs. Now it wants a new bailout with softer terms and a temporary arrangement to bridge the financing gap between the present deal and the new one.

Reportedly, it’s even willing to call this bridge an “extension.” With Germany’s government leading the demand for strict propriety, Europe’s response has been to say that the current program must be successfully concluded, perhaps with some flexibility, before anything else can be discussed. So here’s the puzzle. What’s the difference between an extension that’s a bridge to a new program and an extension with flexibility pending agreement on a new program? To the sane observer, too little to care. Yet because of this difference, whatever it may be, the euro system threatens to break apart. Funny, isn’t it, that Europe’s voters express growing disenchantment with the whole project?

The situation is all the more absurd because the details of any transitional provisions don’t much matter anyway. What’s crucial are the terms of the new longer-term agreement — which the EU is refusing to discuss until Greece capitulates. The need for a new deal isn’t seriously disputed. The existing bailout imposed too tight a fiscal squeeze, which held back growth. The country’s debt burden therefore failed to shrink as intended in relation to gross domestic product. The error has been widely acknowledged, including by the International Monetary Fund (one of the plan’s architects) and by other EU governments.

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“Europe’s crisis is far less likely to give birth to a better alternative to capitalism than it is to unleash dangerously regressive forces..”Europe’s crisis is far less likely to give birth to a better alternative to capitalism than it is to unleash dangerously regressive forces

How I Became An Erratic Marxist (Yanis Varoufakis)

In 2008, capitalism had its second global spasm. The financial crisis set off a chain reaction that pushed Europe into a downward spiral that continues to this day. Europe’s present situation is not merely a threat for workers, for the dispossessed, for the bankers, for social classes or, indeed, nations. No, Europe’s current posture poses a threat to civilisation as we know it. If my prognosis is correct, and we are not facing just another cyclical slump soon to be overcome, the question that arises for radicals is this: should we welcome this crisis of European capitalism as an opportunity to replace it with a better system? Or should we be so worried about it as to embark upon a campaign for stabilising European capitalism?

To me, the answer is clear. Europe’s crisis is far less likely to give birth to a better alternative to capitalism than it is to unleash dangerously regressive forces that have the capacity to cause a humanitarian bloodbath, while extinguishing the hope for any progressive moves for generations to come.For this view I have been accused, by well-meaning radical voices, of being “defeatist” and of trying to save an indefensible European socioeconomic system. This criticism, I confess, hurts. And it hurts because it contains more than a kernel of truth. I share the view that this European Union is typified by a large democratic deficit that, in combination with the denial of the faulty architecture of its monetary union, has put Europe’s peoples on a path to permanent recession.

And I also bow to the criticism that I have campaigned on an agenda founded on the assumption that the left was, and remains, squarely defeated. I confess I would much rather be promoting a radical agenda, the raison d’être of which is to replace European capitalism with a different system. Yet my aim here is to offer a window into my view of a repugnant European capitalism whose implosion, despite its many ills, should be avoided at all costs. It is a confession intended to convince radicals that we have a contradictory mission: to arrest the freefall of European capitalism in order to buy the time we need to formulate its alternative.

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“I want you to bear this empirical reality in mind when you consider the pressure that is being applied to Greece to get it to “stick with the program..”

For Greece And Many Others, Economic Reform Kills Economic Health (Steve Keen)

A quick quiz: which four countries do you think have done the most to reform their economies over the last seven years? OK, who said Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain? No one? Actually, someone did: the OECD. Yes, I kid you not, according to the OECD, the country that has done the most to reform its economy over the last seven years—that is, from before the 2008 economic crisis until well after it—is Greece. Followed at some distance by Portugal, Ireland and Spain. I saw this in a tweet, and even though I am a total sceptic on the value of what conventional economists call “economic reform”, I still couldn’t believe this graphic: surely it was an Onion spoof? I simply had to go searching to see for myself.

And there it was, on page 111 of the OECD’s publication Going For Growth 2015, released on February 9 (in a slightly different form, and with New Zealand pipping in between Ireland and Spain—maybe this graphic was revised later). The top economic reformers were the basket cases of Europe and the world in general. Unemployment in Greece is 27%; in Portugal it’s 15%, Ireland 12%, and Spain 25%. Those are very, very sick economies. And yet they are also the OECD’s top reformers. You are, I hope, wondering “how come? Isn’t reform supposed to be good for you?” Well, that’s the fairy story—sorry, theory—purveyed and fervently believed in by mainstream economists: reform your economies according to our recommendations, and—whatever else happens—your economy will grow more rapidly and be more stable to boot.

Unfortunately for those purveying this fairytale, they also developed metrics by which the degree of reform could be measured, so that a decade later, we can compare the fairy story to the reality. And one quick look shows that we’ve been had. We were told to expect the beautiful Cinderella at the economic ball; instead we got one of her ugly step-sisters. I’ll cover at length someday soon why economic reform as recommended by mainstream economists will normally make your economy more dysfunctional and unstable. For now, I want you to bear this empirical reality in mind when you consider the pressure that is being applied to Greece to get it to “stick with the program” invented for it by the EU.

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“Finance Ministry officials assure they have identified resources they could tap if a small extension on Greece’s bailout obligations, up to the first week of March, is granted from the eurozone.”

February 24 To Be The First Crunch Day For Greek State Coffers (Kathimerini)

February 24 is expected to be the first crucial day for state finances, as projections of cash flows see state coffers starting to run dry on that date. Finance Ministry officials, however, assure they have identified resources they could tap if a small extension on Greece’s bailout obligations, up to the first week of March, is granted from the eurozone. The state of cash reserves – not robust before – has deteriorated further in recent days due to a shortfall in revenues, as a €1 billion hole in January revenues is putting the execution of the state budget in jeopardy and hampering the management of cash reserves. According to figures released yesterday by the Bank of Greece, in January the net cash result of the central administration posted a deficit of €217 million, against a surplus of €603 million in January 2014.

Budget revenues reached €3.1 billion, against 4.4 billion in January 2014, while expenditure dropped to €3.2 billion from €3.6 billion last year. Given these figures, the Finance Ministry estimates that cash reserves will run out next Tuesday. It has the option, however, of using the reserves of general government entities kept in commercial banks in order to cover short-term needs next week. However, the problem that cannot be addressed as things stand concerns needs for the first week of March. Unless something changes drastically to the country’s funding, Greece will not be able to fulfill all of its March obligations. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had called on the ECB to increase the limit of treasury bills to €23 billion from the current 15 billion in a bid to address this shortfall.

The additional funds would have covered the state’s short-term obligations while also providing a cushion until the Greek government is able to strike a deal with its eurozone partners. The request, however, was rejected, as the ECB deemed it an act of direct monetary funding: In practical terms the European Central Bank would have been financing the obligations of a state, which contravenes its regulations.

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“Depending on the number of installments, there will be a reduction to penalties and fines ranging from 30% to 90%..”

Greek Debt Payment Plan Offers Huge Haircut (Kathimerini)

A new repayment plan for expired debts to the state and social security funds announced by the government on Wednesday provides for a reduction to the fines and penalties levied against debtors as well as for a writedown of the original debt, reaching as much as 50% rate in some cases. The new scheme, which has already generated concern among Greece’s international creditors but also among consistent taxpayers, foresees the repayment of debts in up to 100 monthly installments regardless of their size. The minimum installment will be set at €20, while for debts up to €5,000 there will be no interest attached. Depending on the number of installments, there will be a reduction to penalties and fines ranging from 30% to 90%, and in cases of repayment in a lump sum the penalties will be written off entirely.

Crucially, for debts generated up until December 31, 2013, a part of the original debt can be written off, by as much as 50% in certain cases. The plan further waives the limit of 1 million euros for debts that can be negotiated for settlement, making repayment easier for major state debtors. In presenting the new scheme yesterday, Alternate Finance Minister Nadia Valavani stressed that this will be the very last opportunity given to taxpayers to settle their debts to the state. She added that at a later stage there will be another, more favorable plan, concerning only those who find themselves in financial hardship. Ministry calculations show that out of the €76 billion of outstanding debts by taxpayers and corporations to the state, no more than €9 billion can actually be collected.

Social security funds are anticipating a total of €1.2 billion from debt repayments this year thanks to the new plan, from total arrears of €20 billion. The bill in Parliament, which Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Tuesday would be put before Parliament on Thursday, has been postponed until next week. The official explanation cites a need for technical changes to be made to draft, though it has been suggested that the postponement of the process was decided in order to prevent a reaction from the country’s creditors in this week’s crucial negotiations.

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“Whether “doing what is right” in this case means “doing what Varoufakis wants” is, of course, open to debate.”

Greek Philosophy: Conflict Of Ideas Driving The Crisis (CNBC)

As European politicians ponder how to solve the current impasse over Greece’s debts to international creditors, some of the key players seem to be digging out their philosophy books.The country’s erudite Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis, cited German philosopher Immanuel Kant in a New York Times editorial published Tuesday – a nice reminder of Europe’s shared cultural history – as he pled with those reading to help the Greek people escape the bonds of austerity. Kant “taught us that the rational and the free escape the empire of expediency by doing what is right,” he argued.

Whether “doing what is right” in this case means “doing what Varoufakis wants” is, of course, open to debate. Wolfgang Schaueble, the German finance minister, seemed to be adopting a rather dogmatic philosophy, by contrast. When asked about the potential for changes to the existing programme by German state television channel ZDF Tuesday night, he said: “It’s not about extending a credit programme but about whether this bailout programme will be fulfilled, yes or no.”

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I don’t think so.

Greece Runs Up The Austerity White Flag In Brussels (Guardian)

The white flag has been raised over Athens. Greece has bowed to the intense pressure of its eurozone partners and will stick to austerity. After defiantly saying for the past three weeks that it will end the country’s fiscal waterboarding, the Syriza-led government is suing for peace. That, bluntly, is the only way to interpret news that Greece has formally asked for a six-month extension to its bailout agreement. There is no longer the pretence that the bailout is to be replaced by a loan agreement with no strings attached. The hated troika of the European Central Bank, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will be monitoring Greece’s economy for the next six months, something that has been anathema to Syriza until now.

The Greek government has some demands of its own. It wants to negotiate a new growth deal for the four years until 2019. It is asking for debt relief under the terms of the bailout agreement signed in November 2012. And it wants to be able to take steps to deal with the humanitarian crisis caused by the 25% collapse in the size of the economy over the past five years. None of these demands are unreasonable. Indeed, they are all entirely sensible. As Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research has noted, for every euro the Greek government has saved through spending cuts or tax increases the economy has contracted by €1.2. Austerity has resulted in Greece’s debt to GDP ratio going up, not down. A change of tack is overdue. It is unlikely, though, that Syriza will get much of what it wants. The rest of Europe does not really want to negotiate with Alexis Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis; it wants capitulation.

What’s more, it is in a position to get it. Tsipras has two big weaknesses. Firstly, Greece is suffering from capital flight and is dependent on emergency support from the ECB for its banks. This funding has just been increased by the ECB but not by as much as Greece would have liked. The life support could be cut off at any time. Secondly, and perhaps more significantly, Greece has failed to deploy its most potent weapon: a threat to leave the euro. For all the talk in Brussels and Berlin that the single currency could withstand a Greek departure from the single currency, the threat of withdrawal would have put the frighteners on. Would the euro group really want to risk chaos given the shaky state of the economy? Would Angela Merkel want to go down in history as the German chancellor responsible for rolling back more than half a century of European integration?

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Curiously left out of the ceasefire deal.

Besieged Ukraine Town Debaltseve Falls (Reuters)

Ukraine pulled thousands of troops out of an encircled town on Wednesday after a massive assault by pro-Russian rebels, who ignored a new ceasefire to seize the strategic railway junction. The fall of the besieged town of Debaltseve was one of the worst defeats of the war for Ukraine’s troops, who proved unable to stop an advance by Moscow-backed rebels fighting for territory the Kremlin calls “New Russia”. President Petro Poroshenko told security chiefs on Wednesday night that six Ukrainian soldiers had been killed during the pullout from Debaltseve. “According to preliminary data, six Ukrainian heroes were killed during the withdrawal, more than 100 were wounded,” he said, according to Interfax news agency.

Twenty-two Ukrainian soldiers had earlier been killed in the town in the past few days, the Ukrainian military high command said, with more than 150 wounded. Poroshenko, who flew to the frontline, nevertheless tried to cast the battle in a positive light, saying that by holding out as long as they had, Ukraine’s troops had exposed “the true face of the bandits and separatists who are supported by Russia”. The Ukrainian troops had held out for three days beyond the start of a Europe-brokered ceasefire, forcing the rebels to disavow the truce to pursue their advance on the town. Ukrainian troops, their faces blackened, some in columns, some in cars, arrived in Artemivsk, about 30 km (20 miles) north of Debaltseve in government-held territory.

Fighting did not halt with the retreat. A Reuters correspondent near Debaltseve saw black smoke rising over the town and heard loud blasts hours after the withdrawal began. “One hundred and sixty-seven wounded have been taken to Artemivsk. They did not pick up a lot of bodies. I don’t know the total figure,” Semen Semenchenko, who heads the Donbass paramilitary battalion, said on Facebook.

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Bet you never knew.

‘Guantanamo of the East’: Ukraine Locks Up Refugees at EU’s Behest (Spiegel)

Hasan Hirsi has been learning German for the last year and a half, and recently even enrolled in a class that meets for five hours a day, from 1 to 6 p.m. Nevertheless, he still has no words to describe what happened to him before his arrival in Germany. Hirsi, a 21-year-old refugee from Somalia, is huddled on a worn sofa in an apartment in Landau, a small town in southwestern Germany, which he shares with three other Somalian asylum-seekers. He is wearing a gray hoodie and has short, black hair. A retiree from Landau who has volunteered to assist the refugees is sitting next to him. He wants to help Hirsi adjust to his new life in Europe.

But Hirsi is finding it difficult to forget the past. Indeed, he still has nightmares about Ukraine, a place where he became stranded for a lengthy stay on his way to Europe. He now refers to the country as “hell.” Staring at the floor, Hirsi says: “It is difficult.” He repeats the same word, “difficult,” in different languages. After fleeing from Somalia in the summer of 2008, Hirsi tried several times to reach Europe through Ukraine. He was detained once each by Ukrainian and Hungarian border patrols, and twice by police in Slovakia. Ukrainian security forces robbed, beat and tortured him, he says. After being apprehended, he spent almost three years in four different Ukrainian prisons – for committing no crime other thanseeking shelter and protection in Europe.

Most migrants reach Europe through Italy or Greece and many of them die on the way. A broad coalition, ranging from Pope Francis to German President Joachim Gauck, is demanding better protection for refugees on Europe’s southern border and the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, describes the route across the Mediterranean as the world’s deadliest. But when it comes to the eastern route, and the fate of migrants like Hasan Hirsi, interest has thus far been limited. SPIEGEL and “Report Mainz,” a program on Germany’s ARD public television network, have now taken a closer look at the stories of refugees who were locked up in Ukrainian prisons for months during their journeys to Europe.

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Bad smell.

Ukraine Finance Minister’s American ‘Values’ (Robert Parry)

Ukraine’s new Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko, who has become the face of reform for the U.S.-backed regime in Kiev and will be a key figure handling billions of dollars in Western financial aid, was at the center of insider deals and other questionable activities when she ran a $150 million U.S.-taxpayer-financed investment fund. Prior to taking Ukrainian citizenship and becoming Finance Minister last December, Jaresko was a former U.S. diplomat who served as chief executive officer of the Western NIS Enterprise Fund (WNISEF), which was created by Congress in the 1990s and overseen by the U.S. Agency for International Development (U.S. AID) to help jumpstart an investment economy in Ukraine.

But Jaresko, who was limited to making $150,000 a year at WNISEF under the U.S. AID grant agreement, managed to earn more than that amount, reporting in 2004 that she was paid $383,259 along with $67,415 in expenses, according to WNISEF’s public filing with the Internal Revenue Service. Later, Jaresko’s compensation was removed from public disclosure altogether after she co-founded two entities in 2006: Horizon Capital Associates (HCA) to manage WNISEF’s investments (and collect around $1 million a year in fees) and Emerging Europe Growth Fund (EEGF) to collaborate with WNISEF on investment deals. Jaresko formed HCA and EEGF with two other WNISEF officers, Mark Iwashko and Lenna Koszarny. They also started a third firm, Horizon Capital Advisors, which “serves as a sub-advisor to the Investment Manager, HCA,” according to WNISEF’s IRS filing for 2006.

U.S. AID apparently found nothing suspicious about these tangled business relationships – and even allowed WNISEF to spend millions of dollars helping EEGF become a follow-on private investment firm – despite the potential conflicts of interest involving Jaresko, the other WNISEF officers and their affiliated companies. For instance, WNISEF’s 2012 annual report devoted two pages to “related party transactions,” including the management fees to Jaresko’s Horizon Capital ($1,037,603 in 2011 and $1,023,689 in 2012) and WNISEF’s co-investments in projects with the EEGF, where Jaresko was founding partner and chief executive officer. Jaresko’s Horizon Capital managed the investments of both WNISEF and EEGF.

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Interesting lawsuit.

Are the World’s Biggest Banks Moving Money for Terrorists? (Bloomberg)

Steven Vincent had just left a money exchange in the southern Iraqi city of Basra when a group of men in police uniforms drove up in a white truck and grabbed him and his translator. It was Aug. 2, 2005. Vincent, a freelance American journalist, had reported on the war for two-and-a-half years. British troops occupied Basra, but he operated without an embed arrangement. British and Iraqi authorities later found Vincent on the outskirts of the city shot dead. The Iraqi translator survived. Three days earlier the New York Times had published an op-ed article by Vincent, Switched Off in Basra, in which he described the infiltration of the local police by Iranian-backed Islamic extremists. Steven was executed for what he wrote, says his widow, Lisa Ramaci.

She’s set up a foundation in his name that donates money to the families of Iraqis injured or killed because of their work with U.S. journalists. And Ramaci did something else. In November she joined a lawsuit on behalf of relatives of U.S. soldiers and civilians who’ve died in Iraq as a result of violence linked to Iranian-backed militias and terrorist groups. The suit, filed in federal court in Brooklyn, seeks hundreds of millions of dollars not from death squads, whose members aren t likely to show up with lawyers in tow. Instead, it targets five of the largest banks in the world: HSBC, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Standard Chartered, and Royal Bank of Scotland. Defendants, the suit declares, committed acts of international terrorism. The suit, known as Freeman v. HSBC, takes its name from lead plaintiff Charlotte Freeman, whose husband, Brian, an Army captain, died in a Jan. 20, 2007, attack by Iranian-trained militants in Karbala, Iraq.

This far-fetched-seeming attempt to pin culpability for violent deaths on bankers relies on an intricate theory of causation: The European-based banks have handled hundreds of billions of dollars in international transfers for Iranian financial institutions. The Iranian financial institutions, in turn, have moved money for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite Iranian paramilitary organization, and for Hezbollah, the militant Shia movement based in Lebanon and backed by Iran. The Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah have trained and armed Shia groups in Iraq that have kidnapped, shot, and blown up Americans, including Vincent and Freeman. Can the global banking industry be held liable for the detonation of improvised explosive devices and destruction of lives? It may sound wild-eyed or quixotic, but that s what we re trying to do, says Gary Osen, the New Jersey lawyer who recruited the 230 plaintiffs for Freeman v. HSBC.

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 February 11, 2015  Posted by at 11:09 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »


John M. Fox WCBS studios, 49 East 52nd Street, NYC 1948

Truth to Power: This Man Will Never Be Invited Back On CNBC (Zero Hedge)
Nobody Understands Debt – Including Paul Krugman (Steve Keen)
Cornered Greeks Brace For Confrontation (BBC)
Greek PM Tsipras Wins Confidence Vote Before Talks With Creditors (NY Times)
Greece’s Last Minute Offer To Brussels Changes Absolutely Nothing (AEP)
Europe’s Greek Showdown: The Sum Of All Statist Errors (David Stockman)
Germany Rejects Greek Claim For World War II Reparations (Reuters)
Lazard Sees $113 Billion Greek Debt Cut as ‘Reasonable’ (Bloomberg)
Wednesday is Going to be Huge for Europe (Bloomberg)
Germans Swoon Over Greek God, Yanis (Irish Ind.)
Schaeuble Says ‘Over’ for Greece Unless Aid Program Accepted (Bloomberg)
EU-Greek Relations Soured by Leaks; Sides Further Apart (MNI)
Getting Rich Greeks to Pay Taxes Is Tsipras Biggest Test at Home (Bloomberg)
Greece To Collect €2.5 Billion From Tax Evaders ‘Straight Away’ (Kathimerini)
Greece Inches Closer to Renewal of Debt Crisis (Spiegel)
Meet Greece Halfway, Europe (Bloomberg Ed.)
EC President Juncker Poses Challenge To Merkel And Austerity Policies (Spiegel)
This Single Currency Move Pressures The Entire Eurozone (Das)
US Farmers Watch $100 Billion-a-Year Profit Fade Away (Bloomberg)
Moody’s: Lower Oil Prices Won’t Boost Global Growth In Next 2 Years (MW)
World’s Biggest Oil Trader Warns Crude Prices Could Dive Again (Bloomberg)
OPEC Producers Cut Oil Prices to Asia in Battle for Market Share (Bloomberg)
Ukrainians Rage Against Military Draft: “We’re Sick Of This War” (Antiwar.com)

Brilliant.

Truth to Power: This Man Will Never Be Invited Back On CNBC (Zero Hedge)

And now for something completely unexpected: 2 minutes of pure truth (courtesy of Mizuho’s Steve Ricchiuto) on CNBC… 148 seconds of awkward uncomfortable truthiness…

While Steve had a number of hard to hear quotes for the CNBC anchors – such as: “There is no acceleration in underlying economic activity,” and “There’s this wrong concept that I keep on hearing about in the financial press about the acceleration in economic growth… It’s not happening!” A stunned Simon Hobbs rebuffs, “That’s a long list of non-ideal situations we find ourselves in,” to which Ricchiuto snaps back “and we can keep on going!”

“After a string of dismal data on durable goods, retail spending, and inventories, we get a good jobs number and everyone saying the economy’s good – it’s not good! It was Sara Eisen that had the quote of the brief clip… (which has unbelievably been edited out since we posted it seems at around the 1:40 mark) when faced Steve’s barrage of facts about the real economy, replied: “but the key is that’s not what The Fed is telling us.” Summing up the unbelievable ‘faith’ (misplaced beyond all reputational loss) that so many have in the central planners of the world.

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Very lucid explanation of one of Steve’s longtime big themes and squabbles with Krugman: the role of banks in debt creation.

Nobody Understands Debt – Including Paul Krugman (Steve Keen)

Paul Krugman has published a trio of blog posts on the issue of debt in the last week: “Debt Is Money We Owe To Ourselves” (February 6th at 7.30am), “Debt: A Thought Experiment” (same day at 5.30pm), and finally “Nobody Understands Debt” (February 9th in an Op Ed). There is one truly remarkable thing about all three articles: not one of them contains the word “Bank”. Now you may think it’s ridiculous that an economist could discuss the macroeconomics of debt, not once but three times, and never even consider the role of banks. But Krugman would tell you why you don’t need to consider banks when talking about debt, and call you a “Banking Mystic” if you persisted. Well Krugman would be wrong, and you would be right.

This is one of the many times where “experts” in economics have it all wrong, and the general public’s gut feelings about banks, debt and money are closer to the truth. Bank lending is fundamentally important to the performance of the economy, and it is also fundamentally different to lending between individuals. But mainstream economics has convinced itself of the opposite propositions—that lending (most of the time) has trivial macroeconomic implications (the exception being during a “liquidity trap”), and that bank lending to individuals is really no different to lending between individuals. Bunkum—and it’s easy to show why using that boring but vital tool of the accountant, double-entry bookkeeping.

Imagine that you want to buy a new iPhone 6, but you don’t have the $299 Apple wants for it. There are two ways you can get the money: you can borrow from a friend—who transfers money from her bank account to yours—which we can call “Peer to Peer” lending. Or you can add to your credit card debt with your bank—which obviously is “Bank Lending”. Are the two operations macroeconomically equivalent? Or if they are not, are there rules that constrain bank lending so that it’s effectively just the same as “peer to peer” lending? I’ll consider the first point in this article and tackle the second in a later post.

If you borrow from a friend—let’s call you “Impatient” and your friend “Patient” to borrow Krugman’s terminology—then from the situation, as seen from the bank’s point of view, is as shown in Table 1. When you borrow the money, Patient’s deposit account falls by $299, while yours rises by $299. Then when you buy the iPhone, your account falls by $299, and Apple’s rises by $299. Apple gets an extra $299 in income, but since Patient’s bank account has fallen by that much, she is likely to spend less over time, which will reduce someone else’s income by about as much as Apple’s income rose.

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“Nothing is going to go worse, every day is the worst day.”

Cornered Greeks Brace For Confrontation (BBC)

Everyone in Greece has been watching closely as the rhetoric hardens, because they all have something at stake. At a union office in a northern suburb of Athens, a radio programme was going on air. Former employees of the former state broadcaster, ERT, who were abruptly fired in 2013, are still working without pay, determined to talk to the nation. Their makeshift studio is just across the road from their old headquarters, and Syriza has promised to rehire them and reopen ERT. “If we’re building a new country,” argued radio host Andreas Papastamatiou, “we have to [give people] the proper information.” “But we must [also] find a way to live together as European countries. Not as the emperor and his subjects.”

Opinion polls suggest that a growing number of people like the fact that Greece is trying to stand up for itself, and is taking its argument to the rest of the Europe. But they know they will not get everything they want. Now as eurozone finance ministers prepare to meet for what could be a stormy emergency session, the Greek government is floating proposals it clearly sees as a compromise. “What we are proposing,” the Minister for International Economic Affairs, Euclid Tsakalotos, told me, “is that we are given some room for manoeuvre.” “We are presenting a fair case – you cannot reform when people are frightened and uncertain. You need a certain amount of stability first.” [..]

An hour’s drive west of Athens tugboats pull large cargo ships along a narrow channel between the sheer limestone walls of the Corinth Canal. There is no room for manoeuvre – a familiar story for the Greek economy. But it is not hard to find out why Syriza is determined to negotiate some wiggle room. In a cafe overlooking the entrance to the canal, locals described the economy as a disaster, and their own prospects as bleak. The cafe owner, Vassiliki Kourtaki, said she was well aware of the increasingly bitter dispute between Greece and some of its Eurozone partners. But the sense of looming confrontation no longer scared her. “Scary is what we have now,” Vassiliki said. “Nothing is going to go worse, every day is the worst day.”

“The government has to do something now, because we need a lot of help. “And when you are down, the only way is up.” That is where Syriza believes its mandate comes from. And the tone of the prime minister’s speech suggests that he is willing to take his country right to the brink if necessary. The recent history of the European Union suggests that compromise is still on the cards. But if there is no deal by the end of the month the money will run out. And there is a clear and present danger of failure, with consequences impossible to predict.

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“There is no way back,” he said. “As long as we have the people by our side, we cannot be blackmailed by anyone.”

Greek PM Tsipras Wins Confidence Vote Before Talks With Creditors (NY Times)

With Greece preparing for tough talks with creditors in Brussels, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government easily won a confidence vote in Parliament early Wednesday with assurances that it would reverse an economic program that has slashed living standards. Speaking to Parliament before the vote, Mr. Tsipras said his government would seek a short-term “bridge” agreement to a new deal and a “necessary” reduction of Greek debt. He appealed for “space and time,” instead of an extension of the current loan program, saying the country could not “return to an age of bailouts and suppression.” Mr. Tsipras told lawmakers, “This is our red line” – a short-term bridge agreement without further austerity.

In the vote, his government, which came to power last month, secured the support of all 162 coalition lawmakers in the 300-seat House. But winning over international creditors – the EC, ECB and IMF, which have extended Greece more than $270 billion in bailout loans since 2010 – will be much more difficult. Mr. Tsipras said he was optimistic about a “mutually acceptable agreement” with creditors. But earlier in the day, Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister of Germany, which has championed austerity in economically troubled eurozone states, appeared to dismiss the prospect of a new plan for Greece. “We are not negotiating a new program,” Mr. Schäuble said amid a flurry of diplomacy aimed at laying the groundwork for a compromise.

Greece’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, is expected to present his compromise plan at a summit meeting Wednesday in Brussels. The proposal anticipates a bridge financing program through the end of August and a change in the mix of economic measures imposed by creditors, a Greek official said Monday. Mr. Tsipras did not give details on the proposal but indicated that Greece would press its case. “There is no way back,” he said. “As long as we have the people by our side, we cannot be blackmailed by anyone.” Polls indicated that seven in 10 Greeks backed the tough stance toward the country’s creditors. The same proportion said they wanted Greece to remain in the eurozone “at all costs” amid renewed speculation about the Greece’s defaulting on its huge debt, which stands at 175% of GDP, and about its leaving the single-currency union.

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“Greece is in a sense escalating its demands. It now wants to repeal the Troika Memorandum, and raise its T-bill issuance limit by a further €8bn, AND secure loans as well. Good luck.”

Greece’s Last Minute Offer To Brussels Changes Absolutely Nothing (AEP)

The art of Game Theory brinkmanship is to convince opponents that you are utterly defiant, almost insane, and willing to bring the temple crashing down on everybody’s heads. Then you smile and talk turkey. Greece’s Syriza radicals are proving good at this, at least in demonstrating, or feigning, madness. Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis – by all reports the new heart-throb for the thinking German woman – is a theorist on the subject. He wrote a book, “Game Theory: A Critical Text” in 1995. Now he is putting it into practice with great relish. His latest letter to European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker is a sudden switch in tone. You can almost hear the sighs of relief in Brussels. The Eurogroup may not have to hit the pre-GREXIT button this week after all. The crunch can be put off for a bit longer. Greek newspaper Ekathimerini calls it a plan with four pillars:

1) Keep 70pc of the “good” EU-IMF Troika reforms. This means scrapping the other 30pc of course, as yet unnamed. These will be replaced ten new reforms in cooperation with the OECD that in principle go deeper and tackle the cartel/oligarchy system of the old dynasties. Abolish the Troika. Europe could live with this.

2) Cut the target for the primary budget surplus to 1.5pc of GDP over the next two years, instead of 3pc in 2015 and 4.5pc in 2016 as demanded by the Troika. This will stabilize fiscal policy, and open the way for durable recovery. Europe will scream, fretting that fiscal discipline will collapse across Club Med. The Spanish will scream because it will embolden Podemos. But the Americans and Chinese will scream at Europe. The G2 superpowers matter.

3) A debt swap to replace €195bn of loans from EMU governments and rescue funds. These will be GDP-linkers based on Keynes’s Bisque Bonds. No growth, no interest payments. Creditors put their money where their mouth is. The €27bn owed to ECB will be turned into “perpetual bonds”, parked on ECB balance sheet, more or less for ever. This averts a debt write-off – and therefore spares Chancellor Angela Merkel the unpleasant task of explaining to the Bundestag and Bild Zeitung why German taxpayers have just lost a great deal of money – but it amounts to the same thing by the back door. It is further debt relief. Lazard in Paris said today -seemingly on behalf of Athens – that Greece wants a €100bn cut in the ultimate debt stock. They are pitching their opening bid very high.

Europe will scream. Italy and Spain will scream loudest, since they pay too. If they accept this, it would amount to capitulation by Brussels. Furthermore, Mr Varoufakis is extending the plan until September 1. He wants to bite deep into the next Troika loan payment – something Syriza said before that it would never do – in order to pay off ECB loans. This means Europe will have to hand over fresh money. Greece is in a sense escalating its demands. It now wants to repeal the Troika Memorandum, and raise its T-bill issuance limit by a further €8bn, AND secure loans as well. Good luck. The country has funding needs of €17bn by the end of August. Some of this can be covered from a plethora of extraordinary items if EMU wants to play ball, but not all.

4) An emergency humanitarian plan worth €1.86bn. Food stamps. Free power for 300,000 homes below poverty threshold. Free health and transport for the poor. A pension boost for lowest cohort. Europe can live with this. So there we have it. Syriza has not backed down (though I note that the rise in the minimum wage is not on this very provisional list). Its core demands remain. Panagiotis Lafazanis, head of Syriza’s powerful Left Platform, reiterated in the Greek parliament that there will be no fundamental concession. “Greece is not a protectorate. If the EU’s ruling elites think they can blackmail us, they are very wrong,” he said.

What has changed is that Mr Varoufakis will go to Brussels on Wednesday with a package that will most likely throw enough sand in everybody’s eyes – and exploit mounting alarm in EMU circles that this showdown is becoming dangerous – to force a delay. EMU lives on. Yet nothing of substance has changed. The eurozone still faces its Morton’s Fork: either it finds a way to surrender to the Greek mutineers on austerity and debt (calling it victory), or it persists in holding Syriza to the letter of a discredited and destructive Troika deal agreed by a previous government, and in doing so risks blowing up the European Project. Either way, we are already in an entirely different Europe.

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“The real nightmare for Merkel’s government is that the next two largest countries in the capital key are on a fast track toward their own fiscal demise.”

Europe’s Greek Showdown: The Sum Of All Statist Errors (David Stockman)

The politicians of Europe are plunging into a form of ideological fratricide as they battle over Greece. And “fratricide” is precisely the right descriptor because in this battle there are no white hats or black hits – just statists. Accordingly, all the combatants—the German, Greek and other national politicians and the apparatchiks of Brussels and Frankfurt – are fundamentally on the wrong path, albeit for different reasons. Yet by collectively indulging in the sum of all statist errors they may ultimately do a service. Namely, discredit and destroy the whole bailout state and central bank driven financialization model that threatens political democracy and capitalist prosperity in Europe – and the rest of the world, too. The most difficult case is that of the German fiscal disciplinarians.

Praise be to Angela Merkel and her resolute opposition to Keynesian fiscal profligacy and her stiff-lipped resistance to the relentless demands for “more stimulus” from the likes Summers, Geithner, Lew, the IMF and the pundits of the FT, among countless others. At least the Germans recognize that if the EU nations are going to devote 49% of GDP to state spending, including nearly a quarter of national income to social transfers, as was the case in 2014, then they bloody well can’t borrow it. Notwithstanding the alleged German led austerity regime, however, that’s exactly what they are doing. Germany has managed to swim against the surging tide of EU public debt, lowering its leverage ratio from 80% to 76% of GDP in the last four years.

Indeed, Germany’s frustration with the rest of the European fiscal sleepwalkers is more than understandable, as is its fanatical resolve not to give an inch of ground to the Greeks. Or as Merkel’s deputy parliamentary leader, Michael Fuchs told Bloomberg, “There is no way out” for Greece from its treaty obligations….. conditions set for Greece by The Troika (EU, ECB, IMF) for bailout funds “have to be fulfilled…. That’s it, very simple.” This isn’t just teutonic rigidity. It’s actually all about the so-called capital contribution key—-the share of the EU bailout fund that must be covered by each member country in the event of a default.

At dead center of Greece’s $350 billion of debt is $210 billion owed to the Eurozone bailout mechanism. Germany’s share of that is 27% or roughly $57 billion. Yet the prospect of tapping the German taxpayers for some substantial part of that liability in the event of a Greek default is not the main problem—-even as it would mightily catalyze Germany’s incipient anti-EU party. The real nightmare for Merkel’s government is that the next two largest countries in the capital key are on a fast track toward their own fiscal demise. So what puts a stiff spine into its insistence that Greece fulfill the letter of its MOU obligations is that if either France or Italy is called upon to cover losses, the whole bailout scheme will go up in smoke.

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“As part of a wider appeal to Europe for solidarity, Greece’s new finance minister has suggested a parallel between his country and the rise of Nazism in a bankrupt Germany in the 1930s..”

Germany Rejects Greek Claim For World War II Reparations (Reuters)

– Germany said on Monday there was “zero” chance of it paying World War Two reparations to Athens, following a renewed demand from Greece’s new leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Tsipras, in his first major speech to parliament on Sunday, laid out plans to dismantle Greece’s austerity program, ruled out any extension of its €240 billion international bailout and vowed to seek war reparations from Berlin. The demand for compensation, revived by a previous Greek government in 2013 but not pursued, was rejected outright by Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice chancellor and economy minister. “The probability is zero,” said Gabriel, when asked if Germany would make such payments to Greece, adding a treaty signed 25 years ago had wrapped up all such claims.

Germany and Greece share a complex history that has complicated the debt debate. Greece was occupied by German troops in World War Two, an issue that has resurfaced since it has been forced to endure tough reforms in return for a financial bailout partly funded by euro zone partners. Many Greeks have blamed euro zone heavyweight Germany for the austerity, leading to the revival of a dormant claim against Berlin for billions of euros of war reparations. As part of a wider appeal to Europe for solidarity, Greece’s new finance minister has suggested a parallel between his country and the rise of Nazism in a bankrupt Germany in the 1930s, referring to Greece’s far-right Golden Dawn party.

Gabriel referred to the “Treaty on the Final Settlement with respect to Germany”, also known as the “Two plus Four Treaty” signed in September 1990, by the former West and East Germanys and the four World War Two allies just before German reunification. Under its terms, the four powers renounced all rights they formerly held in Germany. For Berlin, the document, also approved by Greece among other states, effectively drew a line under possible future claims for war reparations. Germany thus denies owing anything more to Greece for World War Two after the 115 million deutsche marks it paid in 1960, one of 12 war compensation deals it signed with Western nations. But Athens has said it always considered that money as only an initial payment, with the rest of its claims to be discussed after German reunification, which eventually came in 1990.

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“Greece is in a situation of financial distress, it knows a humanitarian crisis like Europe has not known since World War II..”

Lazard Sees $113 Billion Greek Debt Cut as ‘Reasonable’ (Bloomberg)

Canceling €100 billion of Greece’s debt would enable the country to cut the load in line with targets set by the international authorities that bailed out the nation, the country’s debt adviser, Lazard Ltd.’s Matthieu Pigasse, said in a radio interview Tuesday. A debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio of 120% in 2020 is “a target that looks reasonable to me and that effectively allows bringing Greece into a sustainable pattern,” Pigasse, who leads Lazard’s sovereign advisory team, said on France Inter radio. “An effort is absolutely necessary” and negotiations are ongoing, he said, speaking in French.

European leaders on Monday urged Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to pare back his ambitions for easing the financial pressure on his people, saying they would go against the conditions attached to the country’s bailout. Greece’s public debt currently stands at more than €320 billion, or about 175% of GDP, making it Europe’s most-indebted state when measured against output. “It’s a negotiator’s position,” said Michel Martinez, an economist at SocGen in Paris. “A debt cut of this magnitude politically is very difficult, or even unacceptable. One should explain to German and French taxpayers that have lent to Greece that there will be losses,” Martinez said.

Canceling the debt isn’t the only option to reduce Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio, and interest rate cuts and longer maturities are also possible, he said. Debt can be canceled, or reduced, in several ways, Lazard’s Pigasse said, without elaborating. “Greece is in a situation of financial distress, it knows a humanitarian crisis like Europe has not known since World War II,” Pigasse said. “The austerity cure that was imposed to Greece by what’s called the troika, which is the IMF, the ECB and European states has led to a true disaster.”

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Find the common thread.

Wednesday is Going to be Huge for Europe (Bloomberg)

[Today] sees two big meetings in Europe, the success or failure of which could have major repercussions for markets, and the European political landscape. In Minsk, Belarus, the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia are due to meet to try to hammer out a peace agreement. Failure to reach an agreement will lead to further EU economic sanctions against Russia, which were delayed at yesterday’s EU foreign minister’s meeting meeting to allow time for the diplomatic offensive tomorrow. Failure would also make it easier for The United States to step up its plans to send lethal aid to Ukraine – plans that US president Barack Obama has not yet committed to. If the prospect of all out war on its eastern border is not enough for Europe to worry about, there is also the real prospect of a major sovereign debt blow-up on its southern border.

Tomorrow evening the finance ministers of the euro area meet to see if a new deal can be done for Greece. Greece is pushing for a €10 billion bridging loan to allow it avoid a funding crunch, while also giving the new Greek government time to come up with a new plan for the sustainability of Greek finances. So far Greek plans have met with very little support from other euro area finance ministers, with German’s Schaeuble saying that Greece must agree to a full plan, rather than a bridging loan, or commit to the existing bailout program. There are hints this morning that there may be some room to compromise on both sides ahead of the meeting tomorrow, but with both the Greeks and the other euro area finance minsters still seeming so far apart on the details, chances of failure are still high.

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“Visually, he’s someone you could imagine starring in a film like ‘Die Hard 6’..”

Germans Swoon Over Greek God, Yanis (Irish Ind.)

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has become an improbable heartthrob in Germany, where his charm and appearance have not gone unnoticed. ZDF television has even lampooned its own news anchor for enthusiastically comparing the minister with Hollywood tough guy Bruce Willis, while ‘Stern’ magazine published a gushing article on Varoufakis’s “classical masculinity”. “Varoufakis is without doubt a man full of charisma,” ZDF anchor Marietta Slomka said on air. “Visually, he’s someone you could imagine starring in a film like ‘Die Hard 6’ – he’s an interesting character.” Varoufakis’s casual appearance – and the fact that he does not tuck his shirts in and leaves their tops unbuttoned – was an unlikely focus of news reports in Germany. “What makes Yanis Varoufakis a sex icon” was a headline in the conservative newspaper ‘Die Welt’ while ‘Stern’ magazine wrote that Varoufakis’s appearance reminded Germans of a Greek hero in marble, even though media elsewhere in Europe say he looks more like a bouncer.

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Bluster.

Schaeuble Says ‘Over’ for Greece Unless Aid Program Accepted (Bloomberg)

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble doused expectations of a positive outcome for Greece at an emergency meeting with its official creditors tomorrow, saying there are no plans to give the country more time. Speaking to reporters in Istanbul after a two-day meeting of finance chiefs from the Group of 20, Schaeuble said “it’s over” if Greece doesn’t want the final tranche of the current aid program. Greece’s creditors also “can’t negotiate about something new,” Schaeuble said. Greek government bonds had risen today for the first time in five days on optimism there might be room to move toward an agreement that will help ensure the nation isn’t left short of funds. That had come after Greece had offered compromises in a bid to push for a bridge plan to stave off a funding crunch and to buy time for negotiations to ease austerity demands.

Any accord, however, would require an easing of Germany’s stance in the standoff between Greece and its creditors over conditions attached to its €240 billion lifeline. An impasse risks leaving Greece without funding as of the end of this month, when its current bailout expires, and may put Europe’s most-indebted state’s euro membership in danger. Schaeuble damped expectations, saying euro region finance ministers meeting in Brussels tomorrow won’t negotiate a new program for the cash-strapped country as a program is already in place and was arrived at after “arduous” negotiations. He also said media reports that the European Commission will give Greece six more months to reach an aid deal “has to be wrong” because he’s not aware of such a plan and the commission isn’t in charge of making such decisions. Schaeuble said he had discussed the rules of the aid programs at a meeting with his Greek counterpart Yanis Varoufakis in Berlin last week.

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Not a good tone to start a debate with: “A senior European official described the situation as “berserk” and said, “there is no plan.”

EU-Greek Relations Soured by Leaks; Sides Further Apart (MNI)

The carefully orchestrated dance between the new Greek government and its European creditors appeared to crack Tuesday, with top Brussels officials infuriated by what they see as wildly misleading claims coming from Athens. Apparent claims from Athens officials to other governments and media suggesting that the U.S. Treasury supports a plan by the Syriza-led government to alleviate Greece’s debt, and that the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker either backed the plan or had an alternative himself, have enraged senior economic officials in Brussels. A senior European official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the situation as “berserk” and said, “there is no plan.” He added that the European Commission and U.S. Treasury were both perturbed at the way they had apparently been represented externally by Greek officials.

A team from the U.S. Treasury led by Daleep Singh, deputy assistant secretary for Europe & Eurasia, was in Athens late last week. “The Greeks are digging their own graves,” the EU official said. At the G-20 meeting in Istanbul Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury secretary Jack Lew said that Greece and its international creditors must find a pragmatic solution to that country’s debt crisis, adding that US officials would like to see rhetoric on the issue toned down. “I don’t think that there should be casual talk about the kind of resolution that would end up leaving Greece in a place that is unstable or the EU in a place that is unstable,” Lew said. Early Tuesday, Greece floated its latest funding plan via press leaks, including to the Kathimerini newspaper, proposing a bridge financing programme that would lead to a “new deal” with creditors from September onwards.

There were reportedly four parts to the new deal: 30% of the existing memorandum with the Troika will be cancelled and replaced with 10 new reforms agreed with the OECD; Greece’s primary surplus target would be cut from 3% of GDP this year to 1.49%; Greek debt would be reduced via an already announced swap plan; and the “humanitarian crisis” would be alleviated via policies announced by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras Sunday. Putting aside frustrations about communications from Athens, initial reactions from Eurozone capitals to the ideas in the draft plan have not been positive.The first official described the plan as “hopeless” and added, “how can you have a plan when you make no payment obligation till the autumn and then you probably scrap that.”

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Boy, would they be welcome: “German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he repeated his offer to send 500 German tax officials to Greece to tackle the problem..”

Getting Rich Greeks to Pay Taxes Is Tsipras Biggest Test at Home (Bloomberg)

As Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras goes into a Battle of the Titans with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he may find he has as big a fight closer to home: taking on rich tax-evaders. People like Angeliki Katsarolia, a waitress at the Julia café lounge bar in the rundown neighborhood of Omonia in Athens, want to see him cast his net wide. Gesturing to a receipt for coffee curled up in a small glass on a recent afternoon, one of the few signs of success in five years of attempts to get Greeks to pay taxes, she said she’s doing her bit. “I pay my taxes straight from my wages,” said Katsarolia, 38, who gave up working in luxury hotels where her employers avoided paying her. “I can’t accept that big employers aren’t taxed. They have to pay their taxes too.”

The age-old problem of getting more Greeks to pay their taxes adds pressure on Tsipras, who’s trying to convince Merkel and other euro-area partners he can put his fiscal house in order while raising wages and reinstating government workers. He wants his official creditors to ease the austerity demands that have helped wipe out a quarter of gross domestic product since the start of the crisis. His election pledge to snag Greeks who under-pay or don’t pay their taxes is key both to his rise to power and to his staying there. Germany, the largest holder of Greek debt among euro-area countries and vital to any compromise that will keep Greece in the euro, remains skeptical. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, meeting his Greek counterpart Yanis Varoufakis in Berlin last week, said he repeated his offer to send 500 German tax officials to Greece to tackle the problem, an offer that has not yet been taken up.

“We can well understand and support it that the wealthy in Greece must also contribute, that the tax base gets broadened and the efficiency of tax administration is improved, that corruption is fought energetically,” Schaeuble said. Greek wage-earners and pensioners have suffered punishing taxes to plug a yawning budget deficit revealed in 2009 in five years of an overhaul of Greek taxes that the International Monetary Fund, one of Greece’s lenders, said could have been more fairly distributed. Just a day after Tsipras’s election on Jan. 25, figures from the finance ministry showed that revenue for the government last year amounted to €51.4 billion, lower than a €55.3 billion target, in part due to a €1.4 billion shortfall in tax revenue. “The great struggle is the struggle against tax evasion, which is the real reason our country reached the brink,” Tsipras said in parliament on Feb. 8. “The new government guarantees that in this country justice will be served.”

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“..a law allowing SDOE to rubber-stamp the imposition of tax rather than having to pass it over to tax offices, which often lack the resources to follow up..”

Greece To Collect €2.5 Billion From Tax Evaders ‘Straight Away’ (Kathimerini)

The strengthening of the Financial Crimes Squad (SDOE) will lead to Greece immediately collecting €2.5 billion from tax evaders, State Minister for Combating Corruption Panayiotis Nikoloudis said Tuesday. Nikoloudis, the former head of the anti-money laundering authority, said the government would pass a law allowing SDOE to rubber-stamp the imposition of tax rather than having to pass it over to tax offices, which often lack the resources to follow up. He said there are currently some 3,500 cases of tax evasion, totaling €7 billion, which have been unearthed by authorities but the state has yet to collect the taxes due. He said that €2.5 billion of this total could be retrieved straight away.

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The view from Berlin.

Greece Inches Closer to Renewal of Debt Crisis (Spiegel)

After new Greek Finance Minister Giannis Varoufakis had been repeatedly rebuffed on his introductory tour of European capitals, he opted for flattery and solicitation during his visit to Berlin last week. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, Varoufakis said, had been an object of his admiration since way back in the 1980s for his dedication to Europe. He said that his host’s career, focused as it has always been on European unity, has been impressive. Varoufakis went on to say that Germans and Greeks are linked by their experiences of suffering. Just like the Germans, who were yoked with the burdensome Versailles Treaty after losing World War I, his country too has been humiliated by agreements forced onto it from the outside.

Both countries, he said, suffered from deflation and economic depression, the Germans in the 1930s and the Greeks today. “The Germans understand best how the Greeks are doing,” Varoufakis said. Schäuble’s sympathy for Varoufakis’ plight was limited. Indeed, the German finance minister sees Greek demands for an end to the troika and for a renegotiation of previous agreements as an affront. “We agreed to disagree,” is how Schäuble summed up their meeting, a tête-à-tête that took 45 minutes longer than the one hour that had been scheduled.

Just one day prior to his meeting with Schäuble last Thursday, Varoufakis had been given the cold shoulder at European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt. ECB head Mario Draghi rejected virtually all of Varoufakis’ requests, including his demand for more leniency on debt repayments. That evening, the ECB opted to stop accepting Greek government bonds as collateral, a move which will make it even more difficult for banks in Greece to access liquidity. The move came as a surprise to Varoufakis. Draghi had told him nothing about it during their meeting that morning.

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“If Greece declines Germany’s offer of national humiliation, and the other EU governments follow through on Schaeuble’s threat, Greece will have no recourse but to default..”

Meet Greece Halfway, Europe (Bloomberg Ed.)

Varoufakis wants a bridge loan while talks take place on the consolidation of Greece’s enormous external debts. So far, the rest of the euro area has said, “No way.” Greece’s initial position deserved a stone-faced response because it seemed to allow for no compromise: Greece’s debts would have to be partly written off, whether Europe liked it or not. But on his tour of EU capitals last week, Varoufakis climbed a long way down from that. He now says Greece wants not outright forgiveness but further debt restructuring, including a swap into debts with repayment linked to growth rates. Rather than refusing to have policy conditions tied to the new deal, he’s indicating that many of the reforms bundled into the existing bailout program will stay in place, together with some new ones.

These proposals aren’t as bad as the initial pitch would have led you to expect. Actually, they make a lot of sense. The existing bailout program is widely recognized to have failed: It imposed too much austerity, flattened the economy and, as a result, failed to get the ratio of debt to national income under control. Right or wrong, Greece’s modified position should be seen, at the very least, as a basis for negotiation. Yet some EU governments, and Germany’s especially, are refusing to budge. There’s nothing to talk about, they say. On Tuesday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ominously pronounced that if Greece doesn’t want the final tranche of the bailout program, “it’s over.” Greece’s creditors “can’t negotiate about something new,” he added. Why on earth not?

Missed targets, failed programs and renegotiated agreements aren’t exactly unheard of in the EU: A cynic might call that sequence standard operating procedure. It seems perverse bordering on deranged to try to break this habit at the very moment when a sudden commitment to unwavering rigidity threatens the survival of the euro system. Taken at his word, Schaeuble is telling Greece that nothing short of unconditional surrender will do. What are Greek voters, rallying behind their new government, to make of that? If Greece declines Germany’s offer of national humiliation, and the other EU governments follow through on Schaeuble’s threat, Greece will have no recourse but to default and, in all likelihood, to impose capital controls as a prelude to exit from the euro system. EU creditors will be worse off than if they’d come to an accommodation – and possibly much worse off, if the collateral damage from a Greek exit can’t be contained.

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Power struggle in the EU.

EC President Juncker Poses Challenge To Merkel And Austerity Policies (Spiegel)

Jean-Claude Juncker deliberately chose to deliver his warning in German. “Commissioners are proposed by the member states, but they do not represent the interests of their member state,” the newly appointed president of the European Commission said as he introduced his team last September. In the event a commissioner confused “national and European policies,” he threatened, he would move that appointee to another portfolio. Germany’s Commissioner Günther Oettinger paid little heed to the warning. On Jan. 8, he met in Hamburg with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble to warn them that Juncker was planning to loosen the rules of the Stability Pact for the common currency zone. The three quickly agreed at the meeting that the development would not be in Germany’s interest, and they agreed to thwart Juncker’s plans.
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It had been clear for some time that Europe’s most powerful leader would eventually clash with the head of the European Commission, the EU’s executive, but it happened earlier than some might have expected. Juncker’s commission hasn’t even been in office for 100 days yet and conflicts between Berlin and Brussels are already surfacing. Policy differences are at the forefront, with Juncker feeling that Merkel has bound Europe to austerity policies for too long. But the conflict also touches on a more fundamental question: Who holds the power in Europe?Merkel’s ascendency to the most powerful woman in Europe is rooted to a large degree in the euro crisis, which shifted the balance of power from the European Commission to the European Council, the body representing the leaders of the 28 member states.

As the crisis heated up, leaders gathered regularly to hold crisis summits under the auspices of the European Council in order to save the common currency from collapse. The decisions fell to the European Council because it was European leaders who had to make money available for the bailout packages. Given that Germany had the most money to offer, Merkel quickly became the most important player. Juncker now wants to level the playing field again. He’s the first Commission president to have campaigned as a leading candidate in European Parliament elections to head the commission, and he sees his rebellion against Merkel as an act of emancipation. He believes that the man backed by European Parliament should be at the European helm rather than the woman backed by money.

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“Insofar as the SNB decision was dictated by concern about the risk of losses from continued expansion of its balance sheet, it highlights the limit to central bank actions.”

This Single Currency Move Pressures The Entire Eurozone (Das)

A more serious problem will be externally induced deflationary forces, which will affect the Swiss economy through the stronger currency. It will accelerate deflationary pressures, expected to reach as much as negative 2% to 3%. This will create problems for both asset prices and the increased levels of debt. The Swiss are already being forced to contemplate measures such as capital inflow controls to minimize further pressure on the currency. But the biggest ramifications of the abandonment of the ceiling will be felt outside Switzerland. First, the move opens a new front in the currency wars. There will be pressure on other currencies. Following the Swiss decision, the Danish central bank has cut interest rates three times in a few weeks to a record low, from minus 0.05% to minus 0.75%.

This was designed to discourage capital inflows and due to speculation that Denmark would be forced to discontinue its peg to the euro. It also increases speculation on the sustainability of the euro itself. The Swiss decision will drive reductions in interest rates and currency devaluations as nations seek to preserve competitiveness and limit unstable capital movements. The Swiss National Bank set an interest rate on sight deposit accounts of minus 0.75%, well below the minus 0.25% previously assumed to be the effective lower-bound on interest rates. Other countries may be forced to follow, sending global interest rates even lower. This may exacerbate asset price bubbles, increasing the risk of future financial system problems.

Second, the Swiss now have drawn attention to the ability of central banks to intervene in and control market prices. Given assurances from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in late 2014 about the continuation of the ceiling, the change in policy reduces trust in central banks’ forward guidance. Insofar as the SNB decision was dictated by concern about the risk of losses from continued expansion of its balance sheet, it highlights the limit to central bank actions. Central banks can operate without conventional capital, creating reserves and printing money. However, a large loss may affect a bank’s credibility and ability to perform its functions and implement policies. It may also affect market acceptance of the currency. This means that it would require recapitalization by governments, which would draw political attention to the issue.

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Where commodities go to die. Grow your own!

US Farmers Watch $100 Billion-a-Year Profit Fade Away (Bloomberg)

The squeeze on U.S. farmers is getting worse as low crop prices and rising costs erode incomes that not long ago were the highest ever. Illinois grower Jason Lay said he will buy 30% less fertilizer for his 2,500 acres of corn and soybeans, and 7% fewer seeds for spring planting. After his most profitable year ever in 2012, Lay said he upgraded his combine, tractor, sprayer and planter. With crop futures now near five-year lows, he has no plans to buy any new equipment. “You spend when times are prosperous so you don’t need to when they’re not,” Lay, 41, said by telephone from outside Bloomington, Illinois. “That’s how you make it through.” He estimates his profit is down by a quarter from its peak. Farm income in the U.S., the world’s top agricultural producer and exporter, is poised to drop for a third straight year in 2015.

While raising livestock remains profitable, as tight meat supplies keep prices high, growers of corn, soybeans and wheat saw crop and land values fall faster than many of their costs. That’s pinching sales for equipment maker Deere and seed and chemical producers including DuPont. “The budget picture for corn and soybeans is as negative as we’ve seen in a long time,” said Brent Gloy at Purdue University in Indiana. “You will see some farmers not able to cover their production costs.” The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in a report today at 11 a.m. in Washington, probably will forecast 2015 net-cash income from all farm activity at below $100 billion, which would be the lowest since 2010, Gloy said.

Last year, cash income dropped 17.5% to $108.2 billion, as expenses jumped to a record $370 billion and crop receipts tumbled 11.5%, USDA data show. Even a 14% increase in livestock receipts, which topped crop revenue for the first time in eight years, wasn’t enough to prevent a 2014 decline in overall farm profit. The agriculture industry has boomed over the past decade as record land and crop prices boosted sales of seed and farm equipment. Net net-cash income touched a record $137.1 billion in 2012. Land values have kept rising, up 8.1% last year to an all-time high of $2,950 an acre, while beef and pork prices were the highest ever.

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Duh!

Moody’s: Lower Oil Prices Won’t Boost Global Growth In Next 2 Years (MW)

Amid a death spiral for oil prices, a comfort in some corners has been the belief that lower energy prices will be a boon for global growth. Wrong, according to Moody’s Investors Service, which said Wednesday the pain of lower oil prices won’t result in any boost to global growth over the next two years, due to headwinds from the euro area, China, Japan and Russia. The only beneficiaries? The U.S. and India. Backing what plenty of economists have been saying, Moody’s said indeed, lower oil prices will give a lift to U.S. consumer and corporate spending over the next two years. The ratings service lifted its U.S. forecast for 2015 growth in GDP to 3.2%, from 3% in its last quarterly report. For 2016, it should stay strong at 2.8%, said Moody’s.

But for the Group of 20 countries as a whole, Moody’s expects growth of just under 3% for 2015 and 2016, mostly unchanged from 2014. That’s based on the assumption that Brent crude prices will average $55 a barrel this year, and rise to $65 in 2016. Moody’s expects oil prices will stick to current levels in 2015, because demand and supply issues won’t dramatically change in the near term. Where oil isn’t going to help much is in the eurozone. Moody’s is forecasting its GDP to increase just under 1% in 2015 — not much change from 2014 — and 1.3% in 2016.

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You betcha.

World’s Biggest Oil Trader Warns Crude Prices Could Dive Again (Bloomberg)

The world’s biggest independent oil trader said crude could resume a slump that saw prices fall 61% between June and January, as unrelenting growth in U.S. output leads to a “dramatic” build in the nation’s stockpiles. The oil market seems slightly oversupplied and another downward move is possible in the first half of this year, Ian Taylor, chief executive officer of Vitol Group, said Tuesday. There are no signs of slowing U.S. output even as the country’s drillers idle rigs, he said. Oil inventories in industrialized nations may climb near a record 2.83 billion barrels by the middle of the year because supplies remain abundant, the International Energy Agency said in a report.

Brent crude, a global benchmark, has rallied 29% from its low point this year. It’s still down by half from last year’s peak as the U.S. pumps the most oil in three decades and OPEC responds by maintaining its own output to keep market share. While companies have pulled rigs off oil fields and cut billions of dollars of planned spending, it will be some time before there is an impact on production, according to the IEA. “The market looks a little bit long in the first half of the year,” Taylor said in an interview at a conference in London. “We think there are going to be quite dramatic builds in stock for the next few months” before the market moves into balance in the second half.

The IEA, a Paris-based adviser to 29 nations, cut its forecast for oil-supply growth from nations outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for a second consecutive month Tuesday, citing cuts in company spending. Production will increase by 800,000 barrels a day this year, the slowest rate expansion since 2012 and down from an estimate of 1.3 million a day in December. “Extreme cuts in investment in output now could lead to an oil deficit by the fourth quarter,” Igor Sechin, chief executive of Russia’s largest oil producer OAO Rosneft, said in a speech at the London conference.

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“For the Saudis, it’s market share at any cost. Saudi is the leader in this and the others have to follow the leader.”

OPEC Producers Cut Oil Prices to Asia in Battle for Market Share (Bloomberg)

Iraq and Iran joined Saudi Arabia in cutting their March crude prices for Asia to the lowest level in more than a decade, signaling the battle for a share of OPEC’s largest market is intensifying. Iraq’s Basrah Light crude will sell at $4.10 a barrel below Middle East benchmarks, the lowest since at least August 2003, the Oil Marketing Co. said Tuesday. National Iranian Oil lowered its official selling price for March Light crude sales to a discount of $2.10 a barrel, the lowest since at least March 2000, according to a company official who asked not to be identified because of corporate policy.

The cuts come after Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, reduced pricing to Asia last week to the lowest in at least 14 years. OPEC left its members’ output targets unchanged at a November meeting, choosing to compete for market share against U.S. shale producers rather than support prices. Iraq is the second-biggest producer in OPEC and Iran is fourth. “This is an effort by some producers to protect market share,” Sarah Emerson, managing principal of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts, said by phone Tuesday. “It’s really straightforward; cutting prices is how you keep your foot in the door.”

Middle Eastern producers are increasingly competing with cargoes from Latin America, Africa and Russia for buyers in Asia. Oil prices have dropped about 45% in the past six months as production from the U.S. and OPEC surged. The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that the U.S. will contribute most to global growth in oil supplies through 2020 as OPEC’s attempts to defend its market share will hurt other suppliers including Russia more. “If they go out and sell at a higher price, they won’t sell much,” John Sfakianakis, Middle East director at Ashmore, a London-based investment manager, said in an interview in Dubai Tuesday. “For the Saudis, it’s market share at any cost. Saudi is the leader in this and the others have to follow the leader.”

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“Kotsaba’s particular crime, according to prosecutors, was in describing the conflict as a civil war rather than a Russian “invasion.”

Ukrainians Rage Against Military Draft: “We’re Sick Of This War” (Antiwar.com)

When Ukrainian army officers came to the Ukrainian village of Velikaya Znamenka to tell the men to prepare to be drafted, they weren’t prepared for what happened next. As the commanding officer was speaking, a woman seized the microphone and proceeded to tell him off: “We’re sick of this war! Our husbands and sons aren’t going anywhere!” She then launched into a passionate speech, denouncing the war, and the coup leaders in Kiev, to the cheers of the crowd. What she did is now a crime in Ukraine: the only reason she wasn’t arrested on the spot is that the villagers wouldn’t have permitted it. But in Ukrainian Transcarpathia, well-known journalist for Ukrainian Channel 112 Ruslan Kotsaba has been arrested and charged with “treason” and “espionage” for making a video in which he declared: “I would rather sit in jail for three to five years than go to the east to kill my Ukrainian brothers. This fear-mongering must be stopped.”

Kotsaba may sit in jail for twenty-three years, the prescribed term for the charges filed against him. Kotsaba’s arrest is part of a desperate effort by the Ukrainian government to intimidate the growing antiwar and anti-draft movement, which threatens to upend Kiev’s dreams of conquering the rebellious eastern provinces. Kotsaba’s particular crime, according to prosecutors, was in describing the conflict as a civil war rather than a Russian “invasion.” This is a point the authorities cannot tolerate: the same meme being relentlessly broadcast by the Western media – that an indigenous rebellion with substantial support is really a Russian plot to “subvert” Ukraine and reestablish the Warsaw Pact – now has the force of law in Ukraine. Anyone who contradicts it is subject to arrest.

Also subject to arrest, and worse: the thousands who are fleeing the country in order to avoid being conscripted into the military. In a Facebook post that was quickly deleted, Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak wrote: “According to unofficial sources, hostels and motels in border regions of neighboring Romania are completely filled with draft dodgers.” President Petro Poroshenko, the Chocolate Oligarch, is readying a decree imposing possible restrictions on foreign travel for those of draft age – which means anyone from age 25 to 60. Ukrainians may soon be prisoners in their own country – but they aren’t taking it lying down.

Draft resistance is at an all-time high: a mere 6% of those called up have reported voluntarily. This has forced the Kiev authorities to go knocking on doors – where they are met either with a mass of angry villagers, who refuse to let them take anyone, or else ghost towns where virtually everyone has fled.[..] The frantic Ukrainian regime is now contemplating conscripting women over 20.

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Feb 022015
 
 February 2, 2015  Posted by at 10:24 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  6 Responses »


DPC Fifth Avenue after a snow storm 1905

EU’s Juncker Wants To Scrap Troika’s Mission To Greece (Reuters)
Croatia Just Canceled The Debts Of Its Poorest Citizens (WaPo)
Greece’s Problems Result From Eurozone Having No Fiscal Policy (Guardian)
Greece Asks ECB to Keep Banks Afloat as Debt Deal Sought (Bloomberg)
Greece Wants Special ECB Help While Going ‘Cold Turkey’ on Aid (Bloomberg)
My Friend Yanis, The Greek Minister Of Finance (Steve Keen)
Obama Expresses Sympathy for New Greek Government (WSJ)
France Open to Easing Greek Debt Burden (Bloomberg)
Eurozone Alarm Grows Over Greek Bailout Brinkmanship (FT)
Syriza’s Cleaners Show Why Economics Needs A New Broom (Guardian)
Americans Are Failing To Pump Gas-Price Savings Back Into The Economy (WSJ)
Oil Workers in US on First Large-Scale Strike Since 1980 (Bloomberg)
Falling Prices Spread Pain Far Across The Oil Patch (WSJ)
Oil Companies Draw on Creative Financing to Stay Afloat (Bloomberg)
BP To Follow Shell In Cutting Spending (Guardian)
China’s Feeling the Pressure to Join Global Easing (Bloomberg)
ECB Bond-Buying Plan Has Investors Questioning How It All Works (Bloomberg)
Automakers Can’t Make Air Bags Work (Bloomberg)
Currency War Claims Another Casualty: Denmark (Bloomberg)
Is Reserve Bank of Australia The Next Central Bank To Ease? (CNBC)
US Companies Face Billions In Venezuela Currency Losses (Reuters)
Fleeing Capital Clips Wings On US Yields (CNBC)
Obama Targets Foreign Profits With Tax Proposal (Reuters)

Note that one down for Syriza. It’s the IMF that has the most detrimental impact, getting them out is a very good development.

EU’s Juncker Wants To Scrap Troika’s Mission To Greece (Reuters)

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wants to scrap the troika mission from international lenders that governs Greece’s €320 billion bailout, German daily Handelsblatt reported, quoting unnamed Commission sources. “We have to find an alternative quickly,” it quoted the sources as saying, in an extract from an article released ahead of publication on Monday. Berlin was also prepared to reform arrangements between the European Commission, ECB and IMF and Athens, seen by its new government as ‘insulting’ to Greek sovereignty, and establish more general economic targets, the paper quoted unnamed German government sources as saying.

However, this would only be possible if Greece accepted the need to stick to previously agreed reform and savings targets, the business newspaper said. The new left-wing government of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said it wants to end the bailout deal and will not cooperate with troika inspectors in Athens. It says it wants to negotiate directly with European authorities and the IMF over a new accord that will allow a reduction in its debt, which is equivalent to more than 175% of its gross domestic product. Juncker, who is due to meet Tsipras in Brussels on Wednesday, has said he was not prepared to accept any direct write-off of Greece’s public debt.

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More countriess should consider this. Restructuring, jubilee, call it what you want, it as old as society.

Croatia Just Canceled The Debts Of Its Poorest Citizens (WaPo)

Starting Monday, thousands of Croatia’s poorest citizens will benefit from an unusual gift: They will have their debts wiped out. Named “fresh start,” the government scheme aims to help some of the 317,000 Croatians whose bank accounts have been blocked due to their debts. Given that Croatia is a relatively small Mediterranean country of only 4.4 million inhabitants, the number of indebted citizens is significant and has become a major economic burden for the country. After six years of recession, growth predictions for Croatia’s economy remain low for this year. “We assess that this measure will be applicable to some 60,000 citizens,” Deputy Prime Minister Milanka Opacic was quoted as saying by Reuters. “Thus they will be given a chance for a new start without a burden of debt,” Opacic said earlier this month.

To be eligible, Croats need to fulfill certain criteria: Their debt must be lower than 35,000 kuna ($5,100), and their monthly income should not be higher than 1,250 kuna ($138). Those applying for the scheme are not allowed to own any property or have any savings. Among economists, the scheme is regarded as unprecedented and exceptional. “I can’t think of anything comparable,” Dean Baker at Center for Economic and Policy Research said. Although the program is expected to cost between 210 million and 2.1 billion Croatian kuna ($31 million and $300 million), according to conflicting reports by Austrian press agency APA and Reuters, the Croatian government expects economic long-term benefits that will outweigh the short-term investment.

Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic has convinced multiple cities, public and private companies, the country’s major telecommunications providers, as well as nine banks to clear some of their citizens of their debt. The government will not refund the companies for their losses. Overall, the debt of all Croats amounts to $4.11 billion – and the debt that is about to be wiped out accounts for about 1 to 7% of that. However, for those who are eligible the agreement will make a significant difference by enabling them to gain access to their bank accounts. By reducing debt by less than 10%, Croatia frees nearly 20% of the country’s debtors from their obligations.

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“Isn’t it the case that using Greece as a laboratory mouse for an austerity experiment has been a failure?”

Greece’s Problems Result From Eurozone Having No Fiscal Policy (Guardian)

Greece and Germany are on a collision course. Alexis Tsipras’s new Syriza-led government in Athens wants a big chunk of its debt written off. Angela Merkel is saying “nein” to that. If this were a western, Tsipras and Merkel would be the two gunslingers who have decided in time-honoured fashion that “this town ain’t big enough for the both of us”. But this isn’t Hollywood. There is no guarantee that this shootout will have a happy ending. Things look like getting nasty and messy. The five-year crisis in the eurozone has entered a dangerous new phase. How can this be? Isn’t Greece a small country, which accounts for less than 2% of the output of the European Union? Wouldn’t it be relatively easy and not particularly expensive for its creditors to write off its debts, mostly owned by governments or international bodies?

Isn’t it the case that using Greece as a laboratory mouse for an austerity experiment has been a failure? The answer to all three questions is yes. Greece is a small country. Writing off part of its debts or easing the repayment terms would be simple and painless. The obsession with deficit reduction has depressed growth not just in Greece, but in the whole of the eurozone. What’s more, the lesson from the last five years is that those countries that use the euro are paying a heavy price for the lack of a common system for transferring resources from one part of the single-currency area to another. There is one currency and one interest rate, but there is no fiscal union to stand alongside monetary union. So, unlike in the US or the UK, there is no large-scale method for recycling the taxes raised in those parts of the eurozone that are doing well into higher spending for those parts of the eurozone that are doing badly.

Mark Carney pointed out this weakness in a lecture in Dublin last week when he said: “It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that, if the euro were a country, fiscal policy would be substantially more supportive.” The governor of the Bank of England added that a “more constructive fiscal policy” would help mitigate the negative impact that structural reforms have on demand and would be consistent with the longer-term aim of closer integration. All this is music to the ears of Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, who will be in London for talks with George Osborne on Monday. Varoufakis, judging by his comments on Newsnight last week, thinks Germany should soften its approach not just because the current policy is not working but also as an act of European solidarity.

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This will not be denied.

Greece Asks ECB to Keep Banks Afloat as Debt Deal Sought (Bloomberg)

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras began the hunt for allies against German demands for austerity as his week-old government appealed to the European Central Bank not to shut off the money tap. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his country won’t take any more aid under its existing bailout agreement and wants a new deal with its official creditors by the end of May. While Greece tries to wring concessions on its debt and spending plans, it needs the ECB’s help to keep its banks afloat, Varoufakis said at a briefing in Paris late Sunday. “We’re not going to ask for any more loans,” Varoufakis said after meeting his French counterpart, Michel Sapin. “During this period, it is perfectly possible in conjunction with the ECB to establish the liquidity provisions that are necessary.”

Tsipras, who issued a statement Saturday promising to stick by Greece’s financial obligations, is seeking to repair damage after a rocky first week. Bond yields spiraled and banks stocks plummeted after German Chancellor Angela Merkel stonewalled his plans to ramp up spending and write down debt. The Greek leader visits Cyprus on Monday before trips to Rome, Paris and Brussels. He’s not scheduled to see Merkel, the biggest contributor to Greece’s financial rescue, until a EU summit on Feb. 12. Merkel wants to avoid getting drawn into a direct confrontation with Tsipras and is unlikely to agree to a face-to-face meeting with him at next week’s gathering of leaders, according to a German government official who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.

The chancellor’s goal is to show Tsipras that he is isolated, the official said. What’s more, she sees little margin for maneuver on the conditions of any further support for Greece and is skeptical about Tsipras’s claims that he can raise revenue by cutting corruption and increasing taxes on the rich, the official added. “Europe will continue to show solidarity with Greece, as well as other countries particularly affected by the crisis, if these countries undertake their own reforms and savings efforts,” Merkel said in an interview with Hamburger Abendblatt published Saturday.

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“During this period, it is perfectly possible in conjunction with the ECB to establish the liquidity provisions that are necessary.”

Greece Wants Special ECB Help While Going ‘Cold Turkey’ on Aid (Bloomberg)

Greece is counting on the European Central Bank to maintain a financial lifeline while the week-old government in Athens negotiates new terms on its international bailout package, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said. While the country is “desperate” for funds, it will forgo further disbursements of emergency aid until negotiating a “new social contract” with its creditors, he said. He set an end-May deadline for reaching a deal on a revamped rescue with the euro area and the IMF. “For that period, we’re not going to ask for any more loans,” Varoufakis told reporters today in Paris after meeting French Finance Minister Michel Sapin. “During this period, it is perfectly possible in conjunction with the ECB to establish the liquidity provisions that are necessary.”

The danger for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who won power on Jan. 25 following pledges to undo more than four years of austerity tied to emergency aid, is that both the country’s banks and the government could be left without funding as soon as next month. Greece has until end-February to qualify for an aid payment of as much as €7 billion and hasn’t indicated any willingness to seek an extension. Letting the review lapse under Greece’s €240 billion aid program could result in its banks effectively being excluded from ECB liquidity operations while the government is still shut out of international bond markets. At the moment, Greece has a special dispensation from the ECB because the country is considered to be complying with the bailout pact. That means its debt can be used in central-bank refinancing operations even though it is rated junk.

“There will be no surprises if we find out that a country is below that rating and there’s no longer a program that that waiver disappears,” ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said at an event in Cambridge, England, on Saturday. Varoufakis, whose Paris visit was the first of a series of trips to European cities to press his case, said he intends travel to Frankfurt to seek support for Greek banks from the ECB while a political accord on an aid overhaul is negotiated with the euro area and the IMF. He’s scheduled to see British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne in London tomorrow. A revamped rescue for Greece, where unemployment is more than 25%, would address a “humanitarian crisis,” the need for investment and the country’s debt mountain of about 180% of gross domestic product, he said. “What this government is all about is ending the addiction” to funds that are tied to demands for austerity, Varoufakis said. The government is willing to “go cold turkey for a while, while we’re deliberating,” he said.

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Steve paints a nice protrait.

My Friend Yanis, The Greek Minister Of Finance (Steve Keen)

I first met Yanis Varoufakis when he was a senior lecturer (the 3rd step in the 5-tiered Australian system, equivalent to a Professor in the USA) at Sydney University in the late 1980s, and I was a tutor (the 1st step) at the University of New South Wales. We’ve been friends ever since, and now he has become globally prominent as the Finance Minister of the most troubled and high profile economy on the planet, Greece. Yanis the man as well as Yanis the economist will come under intense scrutiny and pressure from the media and other politicians now. Much of this will have the intention of either cutting him down, or turning the dilemmas he faces in his serious role into a source of media entertainment. I want to describe the man and economist I know with neither objective in mind.

I’ll start with the man—since without doubt the first attacks on him will focus on his character rather than his intellect. Very few people make so strong an impression on you at first meeting that, decades later, you can still vividly remember the meeting itself. Yanis had such an impact. I went to attend a seminar at Sydney University where Yanis was the presenter. Most academic seminars are dull affairs; despite the fact that being an academic involves effectively being on stage, very few academics actually have stage presence. They will mumble, look around evasively, wander about talking as if in a madman’s monologue, or talk to their slides rather than the audience in what has rightly been called “Death By Powerpoint”. Yanis, in contrast, filled the stage as soon as he began to speak, engaged the audience with direct eye contact, and spoke like an orator rather than a mere academic.

His face also had a perennial wry smile to it, and his presentation included plenty as ironic humour as he pulled apart the conventional wisdom in his own field. That humour – and the penchant for oratorical expression – proved to be intimate aspects of his persona, as well as a general warmth and generosity of spirit towards humanity. Backing that generosity up is substantial strength – physical as well as intellectual and emotional. He can be angered by misanthropic individuals, as I can, but in confrontation with them he will attack their intellectual pretensions rather than the individuals themselves. This is reading like a hagiography, but only because Yanis is a genuinely good man. This was manifested in how he has reacted to the toughest experience in his life: having his daughter taken to Sydney against his will in 2005 by his Australian partner, after his return to Greece in 2000.

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Angela will not be amused.

Obama Expresses Sympathy for New Greek Government (WSJ)

President Barack Obama expressed sympathy for the new Greek government as it seeks to rollback its strict bailout regime, saying there are limits to how far its European creditors can press Athens to repay its debts while restructuring the economy. “You cannot keep on squeezing countries that are in the midst of depression. At some point there has to be a growth strategy in order for them to pay off their debts to eliminate some of their deficits,” Mr. Obama said in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria aired Sunday. He said Athens needs to restructure its economy to boost its competitiveness, “but it’s very hard to initiate those changes if people’s standards of livings are dropping by 25%. Over time, eventually the political system, the society can’t sustain it.” Mr. Obama expressed hope that an agreement would be reached so Greece can stay in the eurozone, saying, “I think that will require compromise on all sides.”

The comments come as Athens’s new antiausterity government begins a push this month to convince eurozone countries to ease the terms under which it received large international financial rescues in recent years. Options include reducing Greece’s budget constraints and debt-service burdens. Relations between Greece and the rest of the eurozone have been rocky since the left-wing Syriza party won Greek elections on Jan. 25. “More broadly, I’m concerned about growth in Europe, ” he added. He said fiscal prudence and structural changes are important in many eurozone countries, but “what we’ve learned in the U.S. experience…is that the best way to reduce deficits and to restore fiscal soundness is to grow. And when you have an economy that is in a free-fall there has to be a growth strategy and not simply the effort to squeeze more and more from a population that is hurting worse and worse.”

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Big opening.

France Open to Easing Greek Debt Burden (Bloomberg)

France is ready to offer Greece concessions on its debt to help the country’s new government revive its economy, Finance Minister Michel Sapin said. The French government is willing to discuss ways to ease Greece’s financial burden including extending the maturity of its debt, Sapin said Sunday in an interview with Canal Plus television before meeting with his Greek counterpart Yanis Varoufakis. He ruled out a full write-off and said the French government’s total exposure to Greece is €42 billion. “They say we cancel it, we just cancel it – no,” Sapin said. “We can discuss, we can postpone, we can alleviate. But we won’t cancel it.” The comments may offer encouragement to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras who begins a tour of European capitals tomorrow as he seeks support for a plan to ease the country’s debt burden to help him pay for a program of public spending to boost gross domestic product.

Tsipras said Saturday that Greece would repay its debts to the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, leaving the focus of any debt reduction on the other euro-area governments. Varoufakis appointed Lazard as adviser on issues related to public debt and fiscal management on Saturday. “There is a range of possible solutions: extending the maturities, lowering interests rates, and the much more radical solution, the haircut,” Matthieu Pigasse, the head of Lazard’s Paris office who has advised Greece in the past, said in a Jan. 30 interview on BFM Business television. “If we could cut the debt by 50%” he said, “it would allow Greece to return to a reasonable debt to GDP ratio.” He said Greece’s debt to public creditors was about €200 billion. “That people in Greece say ‘we need a bit of air’ I can understand that,” Sapin said. “It’s legitimate for them to say we want to discuss how we can lower the weight of this debt.”

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The FT, on the side of the banks, tries to spread the fear, but “The finance chief said Athens would make proposals within a month for a “new contract” with the euro zone, which would be in place by the end of May.”

Eurozone Alarm Grows Over Greek Bailout Brinkmanship (FT)

Eurozone officials are increasingly worried that Greece’s brinkmanship over its bailout will plunge the country into financial chaos after its finance minister said on Sunday that it would take up to four months to agree a “new contract” with creditors. Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s newly appointed finance minister, said Athens would reject any further loans under its international rescue plan, despite Greece’s €172bn bailout expiring at the end of the month. He also said he expected the ECB to prop up the country’s weakened banking system until a longer-term settlement could be reached. Mr Varoufakis said Greece had been living for the next loan tranche for the past five years. “We have resembled drug addicts craving the next dose. What this government is all about is ending the addiction,” he said, noting it was time to go “cold turkey”.

His comments on Sunday underscored the fears of euro zone officials that the Greek government was unaware of the precariousness of its financial situation. “Everybody [in the euro zone] wants a deal,” said one senior euro zone official. “But through their actions and their rhetoric, the new government is making a lot of people upset. They are putting themselves in an impossible situation.” Mr Varoufakis was speaking in Paris on the first leg of a European tour intended to garner support for a renegotiation of its debt burden. Greece’s anti-austerity government roiled markets during a tumultuous first week in power with 40% being wiped off the value of Greek banks following announcements to reverse spending cuts and privatizations.

Despite a more emollient tone from Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s radical left-wing prime minister, over the weekend, EU officials have been dismayed by Athens’ repeated rejection of a bailout extension — and refusal to co-operate with the troika of international creditors. German officials were also irritated at its refusal to engage with Berlin, although Mr Varoufakis said he had now been invited to the German capital. The finance chief said Athens would make proposals within a month for a “new contract” with the euro zone, which would be in place by the end of May. “We are not going to ask for any loans during this period. It is perfectly possible to establish liquidity provisions with the ECB.”

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The role of women.

Syriza’s Cleaners Show Why Economics Needs A New Broom (Guardian)

Among the most uplifting images from Syriza’s victory in Greece last week were the elated faces of a small group of fiercely determined women: the public sector cleaners who were laid off during the country’s brutal budget cuts and had been told they would be swiftly re-hired by the new government. The fate of a few low-paid mop operatives is a world away from the cut and thrust of international negotiations on debt relief for Greece. Yet it has so often been the fate of working-class women – standing in the bread queues, scrabbling to feed their families, laid off in their droves in the public sector job cuts mandated by the country’s troika of creditors – that has best illustrated the despair to which many in the recession-ravaged country have been driven.

Syriza had promised that “hope is coming”, injecting the language of emotion into dry debates about deficits and debt repayments. It remains to be seen how successful they will be in the high-stakes negotiation they must now enter with their eurozone partners, under the minute-by-minute scrutiny of the financial markets. But the party’s triumph – and the cleaning women’s plight – underlines the fact that economics is about not just the state of the public finances (improving, in Greece’s case) or GDP (on the up), but raw human experience in homes and families. One lesson from the crises that have roiled the eurozone over the past five-plus years is that anyone who tells you the only response to a public debt crisis is to slash spending and embark on “structural reform” is either masochistic or downright mad.

But we could take a more profound lesson away too, which so far most economists have failed to learn from the Great Recession and its long-drawn-out aftermath: the individualistic, neoliberal perspective on the world that bleaches out humanity in favour of equations needs to be junked too. Margaret Thatcher’s promise in 1979, “where there is despair, let us bring hope”, may have prefigured Syriza’s language, but her arrival in No 10 marked the start of an era in which we have increasingly come to see ourselves as “aspirational”, atomised individuals, scrabbling to make our way in a world without the support of the society Thatcher notoriously dismissed.

This approach was underpinned and apparently vindicated by the proliferation of economic models that conceived of people as cool, rational, drastically simplified robots who beetle around trying to maximise their utility. The market became seen as the ultimate expression of this calculating rationality, and its values – competition, self-interest, even greed – as the fundamental driving forces of life. Behavioural economists have spiced up this dull world with concepts such as irrational exuberance, helping to explain why even financial markets – supposedly the embodiment of hardnosed rationality – can experience moments of madness. And others show why the qualifier ceteris paribus – “all things being equal” – that always applies to these elegant mathematical constructions is a nonsense, because all things are never, ever equal.

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Economists are incapable of getting their head around the possibility that people may simply not have anything to spend.

Americans Are Failing To Pump Gas-Price Savings Back Into The Economy (WSJ)

Americans are taking the money they are saving at the gas pump and socking it away, a sign of consumers’ persistent caution even when presented with an unexpected windfall. This newfound commitment to frugality was illustrated this past week when the nation’s biggest payment-card companies said they aren’t seeing evidence consumers are putting their gasoline savings toward discretionary items like travel, home renovations and electronics. Instead, people are more often putting the money aside for a rainy day or using it to pay down debt. That more Americans are saving their bounty at the pump comes as a surprise, because the personal savings rate, after rising during and after the recession, has declined steadily over the past two years. “We haven’t seen the extra savings from lower gas prices translate into additional discretionary consumer spending,” said MasterCard CEO Ajay Banga on a conference call Friday.

The new data are perhaps the best indication to date that the pain of the recession remains fresh in the minds of many Americans, even as the economy picks up steam. The Commerce Department said Friday that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter. Personal consumption expenditures rose 4.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the last three months of 2014, representing the biggest increase since the first quarter of 2006. Also on Friday, the University of Michigan said consumer sentiment in January reached its highest level in 11 years. The closely watched index has increased in each of the past six months, rising 20% since July. But that positive outlook doesn’t mean consumers feel emboldened to splurge with their savings at the pump, and card-company executives said spending growth would have been higher if consumers had put their gas savings toward more big-ticket items rather than savings.

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“They continue to value production and profit over health and safety, workers and the community.”

Oil Workers in US on First Large-Scale Strike Since 1980 (Bloomberg)

The United Steelworkers union, which represents employees at more than 200 U.S. oil refineries, terminals, pipelines and chemical plants, began a strike at nine sites on Sunday, the biggest walkout called since 1980. The USW started the work stoppage after failing to reach agreement on a labor contract that expired Sunday, saying in a statement that it “had no choice.” The union rejected five contract offers made by Royal Dutch Shell Plc on behalf of oil companies including Exxon Mobil and Chevron since negotiations began on Jan. 21. The steelworkers’ union hasn’t called a strike nationally since 1980, when a stoppage lasted three months. A full walkout of USW workers would threaten to disrupt as much as 64% of U.S. fuel production. Shell and union representatives began negotiations amid the biggest collapse in U.S. oil prices since 2008.

“The problem is that oil companies are too greedy to make a positive change in the workplace,” USW International Vice President Tom Conway said in the statement. “They continue to value production and profit over health and safety, workers and the community.” Ray Fisher, a spokesman for Shell, said by e-mail on Saturday that the company remained “committed to resolving our differences with USW at the negotiating table and hope to resume negotiations as early as possible.” The USW asked employers for “substantial” pay increases, stronger rules to prevent fatigue and measures to keep union workers rather than contract employees on the job, Gary Beevers, the USW international vice president who manages the union’s oil sector, said in an interview in Pittsburgh in October.

The refineries called on to strike span the U.S., from Tesoro’s plants in Martinez, California; Carson, California; and Anacortes, Washington, to Marathon’s Catlettsburg complex in Kentucky to three sites in Texas, according to the USW’s statement. The sites in Texas are Shell’s Deer Park complex, Marathon’s Galveston Bay plant and LyondellBasell’s Houston facility, according to union. The walkout also includes Marathon’s Houston Green cogeneration plant in Texas and Shell’s Deer Park chemical plant. The refineries on strike can produce 1.82 million barrels of fuel a day, about 10% of total U.S. capacity, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “There will be a knee-jerk reaction in gasoline and diesel prices because we don’t know how long this is going to be or how extended it might be,” Carl Larry, director of oil and gas at Frost & Sullivan, said. “It’ll be bearish for crude, but we’ve already accounted for a lot of the fact that refineries are maintenance.”

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“Cutbacks aren’t yet reflected in broad data on employment, home sales or tax collections. For example, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics says that employment in oil and gas extraction rose in December to 216,100, the highest level since 1986.”

Falling Prices Spread Pain Far Across The Oil Patch (WSJ)

Rumor became reality here last week when dozens of workers lost their jobs at Laredo. The Oklahoma-based energy outfit said it closed its regional office to cope with plunging oil prices. The layoffs were “kind of like a death in the family,” says Robert Silver, age 62, a geophysicist who had helped Laredo decide where to drill in the Permian Basin in West Texas. Trouble has been looming over the oil patch since crude prices began falling last summer, from over $100 a barrel to under $50 today. But only now are the long-feared effects of a bust starting to ripple through the complex energy ecosystem, affecting Houston executives, California landowners and oil old-timers in Oklahoma. Many big energy companies have said they plan to slash billions of dollars in spending along with thousands of jobs; energy giant ConocoPhillips told employees Thursday to expect a salary freeze and layoffs.

Indicators like drilling permits in Texas have fallen sharply. Cutbacks aren’t yet reflected in broad data on employment, home sales or tax collections. For example, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics says that employment in oil and gas extraction rose in December to 216,100, the highest level since 1986. But fallout is beginning to affect people, starting with the legions working as suppliers to the energy industry. Eric Herschap is COO at Exclusive Energy a private company in Orange Grove, Texas, that offers services, including equipment rentals, to exploration companies. His customers are demanding price cuts of 15% to 25%, and Exclusive offers additional discounts beyond that, he says. So the company laid off 10 of its 45 employees and is cutting bonuses for those who remain. Mr. Herschap says his brightest engineers are now fielding phone calls from customers with technical questions.

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Casino.

Oil Companies Draw on Creative Financing to Stay Afloat (Bloomberg)

North America’s small and mid-sized energy companies are searching for creative ways to stay afloat as investors smell blood in the water from the almost 60 percent fall in the price of oil since June. Oil and natural gas companies are straining for solutions before cuts in credit lines and increases in lending rates hit home in April, when banks re-price the collateral used to secure revolving credit lines. Some are turning to more creative forms of financing as familiar sources of money dry up. That financing is coming from hedge funds, private equity shops and mega-wealthy investors like billionaire Carl Icahn who have the cash to weather a prolonged downturn and are on the hunt for deals among the wounded, bankers and analysts say. Oil operators, meanwhile, are laying off staff, freezing salaries and deferring investments to conserve cash.

“Companies have lived in a state of outspending cash flow, and the markets have facilitated that,” said Gregory Sommer at Deutsche Bank “But if prices persist at this level, you’re going to see some companies pulling back significantly” more than they already have. Eclipse turned to private equity investors in December after the cost to issue unsecured debt to fund capital spending became prohibitively expensive, according to Matthew DeNezza, the company’s chief financial officer. “Traditional, high-yield debt markets were not available” at reasonable prices, DeNezza said in a telephone interview. “The debt markets were closed to us.” Shares of the driller have fallen by 77% since it raised $818 million in its initial public offering on June 20, when U.S. oil prices were $107 a barrel.

In a deal announced three days before the new year, Eclipse sold $325 million in additional equity to its largest investor, EnCap Investments, and brought in extra money from private-equity firm KKR & Co. to help fund drilling operations in 2015, DeNezza said. Private equity investors, he said, can look past the market turmoil and “take a longer term view of what these assets are really worth.” The firms have already raised $15 billion for general energy investing in recent years. Carlyle Group LP, Apollo Global Management LLC, Blackstone Group LP and KKR are raising billions more for new funds created in the past few months to invest in distressed oil producers.

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As staff gets fired, “Bob Dudley, BP’s chief executive, is expected to further sweeten the pill for investors by making no changes to the dividend..”

BP To Follow Shell In Cutting Spending (Guardian)

BP will on Tuesday unveil plans to slash billions of pounds off its capital spending programme in a bid to counter the impact of plunging oil prices and a 40% fall in its fourth quarter profits. The company, which has already cut hundreds of jobs in Aberdeen and thousands around the world, is expected to announce spending reductions of over 10% bringing the official target below $22bn for 2015. Bob Dudley, BP’s chief executive, is expected to further sweeten the pill for investors by making no changes to the dividend while not making any further specific redundancies. BP said in December that it was taking a $1bn charge to pay for restructuring – almost all for job cuts – and has since made local announcements about new staffing levels in Houston, Trinidad and Azerbaijan. The latest cost-reductions come as BP is expected to report profits of around $1.5bn for the last three months of its financial year.

Peers such as Shell will reduce expenditure by $15bn over the next three years, Chevron is to cut 13% of spending to $35bn after reporting a 30% plunge in final quarter earnings, while ConocoPhillips slashed its capital expenditure by 33% to $11.5bn. ExxonMobil, the world’s largest quoted oil company, will also unveil its strategy for dealing with a Brent blend oil prices which has fallen to around $50 a barrel from $115 in June last year. BP’s previous target was to spend between $24bn and $25bn in 2014 although the final outturn for the year was expected to have already fallen to $23bn and the company is now expected to try to ensure the official target in 2015 is even lower. The company is particularly vulnerable to lower commodity prices because it is still suffering financially from ongoing fallout from the Deepwater Horizon accident of 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico and from its risky investments in Russia.

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As if it hasn’t yet?!

China’s Feeling the Pressure to Join Global Easing (Bloomberg)

The case for China to join the latest wave of global monetary easing has increased, with a manufacturing gauge signaling the first contraction in more than two years. The government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.8 last month from 50.1 in December, missing the median estimate of 50.2 in a Bloomberg survey of analysts and below the 50 level separating expansion and contraction. The slide follows the biggest weekly stock market drop in a year and fiscal data that showed the weakest revenue growth since 1991. Central banks from the euro zone to Canada and Singapore last month added monetary stimulus as slumping oil prices damp the outlook for inflation and global momentum outside the U.S. moderates.

China’s central bank, which cut interest rates in November for the first time in two years, has since added liquidity in targeted measures rather than with follow-up rate reductions or cuts to banks’ required reserve ratios. “We expect such data will weaken further and push the government to take further easing actions,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. Zhang and Lu Ting of Bank of America have been among economists who said the People’s Bank of China would delay lowering banks’ RRRs for risk of stoking an equities bubble. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell for a fifth day and was 2% lower at 10:17 local time. The yuan weakened.

Seasonal reasons, falling commodity prices, and weak domestic and international demand caused the decline in manufacturing PMI, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at NBS, said in a statement on the bureau’s website. Most sub-indexes fell, including new orders and new export orders. The sub-index of raw material purchasing prices decreased to 41.9, the lowest in at least a year, on the decline in commodity prices “China’s manufacturing sector is still facing de-leveraging pressure,” said Liu Li-Gang, head of Greater China economics at Australia & New Zealand Bank in Hong Kong. “Deflation in the manufacturing sector continues and the destocking process has not yet completed.”

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In the end, it’s all just words. ‘Whatever it takes’ worked wonders too, after all.

ECB Bond-Buying Plan Has Investors Questioning How It All Works (Bloomberg)

Mario Draghi’s trillion-euro puzzle is missing some key pieces. When the European Central Bank president announced a program on Jan. 22 to buy €60 billion of assets a month for at least 19 months to avert deflation, he surprised investors with the size of the stimulus. He also provided more details than anticipated. Yet analysts poring over the ECB’s statements are finding that several critical points remain unclear. “The ECB had to present a lot of details right from the beginning as they wouldn’t have been credible without them,” said Johannes Gareis at Natixis. “What is missing somewhat is the fine print, which might have quite an impact on the implementation.” Here’s what the ECB has and hasn’t revealed about Europe-style quantitative easing.

What will the asset mix be? The ECB’s monthly spending will include its existing programs to buy covered bonds and asset-backed securities. Of the added purchases, Draghi said 12% will be debt issued by European Union institutions and agencies, and the rest will be government bonds. The question is: how much does the ECB envisage spending on each type of asset? Draghi also said officials will buy bonds with maturities from 2 years to 30 years, without specifying an average target that could affect yield curves and borrowing costs. And while the central bank said eligible debt includes inflation-linked bonds, floating-rate notes and securities with a negative yield, it hasn’t given any indication of what the breakdown of purchases might be.

How transparent will the purchasing be? The ECB hasn’t said much about the mechanics of QE. When it bought sovereign debt from 2010 to 2012 under its now-halted, and far smaller, Securities Markets Program, it dipped into the market without prior announcement. ABS and covered-bond purchases are carried out by external asset managers. Those strategies contrast with the Federal Reserve, which issued a calendar for when it would make purchases under its QE programs and what type of securities it would buy. A public calendar would “ensure greater transparency and minimize market distortion,” said Riccardo Barbieri Hermitte at Mizuho in London.

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More recalls than sales.

Automakers Can’t Make Air Bags Work (Bloomberg)

U.S. regulators’ push for a second recall of 2.1 million cars and trucks whose air bags could go off while driving delivered more cautionary tales about a complex life-saving technology that’s had a very bad year. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration held an unusual Saturday press briefing to warn the public that an earlier recall of nine models from Fiat Chrysler, Honda and Toyota didn’t work entirely. The agency is asking vehicle owners who haven’t completed the first repair to do so now. That may mean a second trip to the dealership for consumers, assuming replacement parts for the new fix are available, which they may not be until year-end.

Added to the mix: Some of the cars being recalled for a second time were part of last year’s massive 10-automaker recall of Takata air bags for a different defect: inflators that could explode with deadly results. “If you own an affected vehicle, this means driving around with the knowledge your air bag might still randomly deploy,” said Karl Brauer, a senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “And just to keep it interesting, some of these vehicles are equipped with Takata air bags, meaning the random deployment could include metal shrapnel. What a mess.” It’s the biggest challenge to the technology since the mid-1990s, when NHTSA began investigating reports that first-generation air bags deployed with such force that children and small adults riding in front seats were being killed and, in some cases, decapitated.

“TRW is supporting its customers in these recalls fully, and will cooperate with NHTSA and provide information to the agency if requested,” John Wilkerson, a spokesman for TRW, said in an e-mailed statement. About 1 million of the Honda and Toyota vehicles listed on Saturday were previously recalled for defective Takata air bags, the agency said. “This is unfortunately a complicated issue for consumers, who may have to return to their dealer more than once,” said NHTSA Administrator Mark Rosekind. “But this is an urgent safety issue, and all consumers with vehicles covered by the previous recalls should have that remedy installed.” General Motors recalled at least 7 million vehicles in North America last year to fix faulty ignition switches that could cut power and disable air bags.

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“At some point, Denmark may well decide the fight isn’t worth it.”

Currency War Claims Another Casualty: Denmark (Bloomberg)

After half a decade of growing ever sleepier, the currency market has started the year with its most volatile period since 2011. As the victims of the Swiss franc detonation lick their wounds, Denmark is battling to avoid its krone becoming the next victim of the global currency wars, wielding a combination of negative interest rates plus market interventions to sell its own currency plus scrapping government bond sales as it defends its peg to the euro. I’ve seen this movie before; it never ends well. Denmark sprang a rate-cut surprise last week; the central bank will now charge you 0.5% for the privilege of having kroner on deposit. The bank’s third easing in less than two weeks came after it spent as much as 100 billion kroner ($15 billion) this month trying to weaken its currency, according to estimates by Scandinavian lender Svenska Handelsbanken. Taking on traders is an expensive business.

The Swiss National Bank reminded us a fortnight ago that nothing is ever truly sacred in financial markets, abandoning its cap to the euro just days after declaring the policy sacrosanct. Since then, keeping the Danish krone close to a central rate against the euro of 7.46 – the official wiggle room is a 2.25% corridor around that level, the actual room for maneuver has been more like 1% – has kept the central bank’s trading desk busy. The central bank shocks have certainly come thick and fast this year, from the European Central Bank finally getting religion on quantitative easing, to the Federal Reserve adding “international developments” to its list of metrics to watch, to the deployment of negative official interest rates as a deterrent to speculators. No wonder overall volatility in foreign exchange has spiked higher.

The genesis of the present currency war is the desire of every country for a weaker currency to boost exports and growth. That, of course, can’t happen, any more than you can mix heavy-metal music by making everything louder than everything else. So far, Denmark is a casualty of these wars, wounded but still in the fight. Economists are betting, though, that it will need to drive interest rates even further into negative territory to prevent speculators from bidding up the currency, which effectively punishes the nation’s savers. At some point, Denmark may well decide the fight isn’t worth it.

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Yes.

Is Reserve Bank of Australia The Next Central Bank To Ease? (CNBC)

Speculation is high that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be the next central bank to ease monetary policy at its meeting this week following a month of surprise policy changes across the globe. January saw unexpected loosening measures from a handful of central banks including Denmark, India and Singapore against a backdrop of increasing deflationary pressures as crude oil prices continue their descent. “Judging by price action in the market, there is a real belief the RBA are going to join New Zealand, Europe, Denmark, Switzerland and Canada in easing policy,” said Chris Weston, chief market analyst at IG in a note last week, adding that swaps markets are now pricing a 65% chance of a rate cut.

The RBA has held rates at 2.5% since August 2013. Many analysts expect the RBA to announce a 25 basis-point interest rate cut at Tuesday’s policy meeting to tackle 6% unemployment and sliding iron ore prices, one of the country’s biggest exports. Comments by Australian journalist Terry McCrann last week that a rate cut is “almost certain” heightened expectations, sending the Australian dollar to fresh five-and-a-half year lows at 77.22 U.S. cents on Friday. McCrann, a long-time RBA watcher, reasoned that the RBA will forecast inflation to be lower than the mid-point of its 2-3% target range, opening the way for further easing.

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“The official rate is at 6.3 bolivars to the dollar… The black market rate, though, was at about 190 bolivars to the dollar on Sunday..”

US Companies Face Billions In Venezuela Currency Losses (Reuters)

At least 40 major U.S. companies have substantial exposure to Venezuela’s deepening economic crisis, and could collectively be forced to take billions of dollars of write downs, a Reuters analysis shows. The companies, all members of the S&P 500, and including some of the biggest names in Corporate America such as autos giant General Motors and drug maker Merck, together carry at least $11 billion of monetary assets in the Venezuelan currency, the bolivar, on their books. The official rate is at 6.3 bolivars to the dollar and there are two other rates in the government system – known as SICAD 1 and SICAD 2 – at about 12 and 50. The black market rate, though, was at about 190 bolivars to the dollar on Sunday, according to the website dolartoday.com.

The problem is that the dollar value of the assets as disclosed in many of the companies’ accounts is based on either the rates at 6.3 or 12 and only a limited number of transactions are allowed at those rates. The assets would be worth a lot fewer dollars at the 50 rate in the government system and the dollar value would almost be wiped out at the black market rate. The currency system is also about to be shaken up following an announcement by Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 21, leading to fears of a further devaluation. American companies will also have additional exposure to the bolivar that isn’t disclosed because they don’t see the size of that exposure as material to their results. The Reuters analysis also doesn’t look at the thousands of publicly traded and private American companies that aren’t in the S&P 500 and will in some cases have bolivar assets.

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Bring home the buck.

Fleeing Capital Clips Wings On US Yields (CNBC)

The relentless fall in longer term U.S. Treasury yields doesn’t signal declining U.S. inflation expectations, but instead is a side effect of funds fleeing low yields elsewhere, say analysts. “Yields of U.S. Treasury’s have actually become increasingly appealing relative to those of government bonds in other developed countries,” Capital Economics Chief Markets Economist John Higgins said in a note published last week. “Increased appetite from overseas investors” have contributed – along with the now-phased out asset purchases by the Federal Reserve and extra demand from banks in response to the launch of Basel 3 – to the downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, he said. At the longer end, 10-year Treasury yields broke below the key 1.7% level and closed at 1.6329%.

The 10-year Treasury’s are just a tad off levels seen in early March 2013, before the Fed first broached the idea that it would begin tapering its purchases of Treasury’s, a process it completed in October of last year. The 30-year was seen at 2.2229%, close to a record low. In comparison, massive central bank bond purchase operations in Japan and Europe have sent yields tumbling, especially in Germany and Japan, where they are still hovering around record lows: the 10-year German bund yields just 0.304% and the 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) are at 0.290%. At the 30-year end, German yields are at 0.887% and its Japanese equivalent at 1.280%. Another central bank joined in two weeks ago – yields on Swiss government bonds sunk into the negative after a surprise rate cut and scrapping of its currency peg to the euro.

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“Given Washington’s current political division, much of what will be laid out on Monday is unlikely to become law.”

Obama Targets Foreign Profits With Tax Proposal (Reuters)

President Barack Obama’s fiscal 2016 budget will seek new taxes on trillions of dollars in profits accumulated overseas by U.S. companies, and a new approach to taxing foreign profits in the future, but Republicans were skeptical of the plan on Sunday. Reviving a long-running debate about corporate tax avoidance, Obama will target a loophole that lets companies pay no tax on earnings held abroad, the White House said. But his proposal was certain to encounter stiff resistance from Republicans. In his budget plan to be unveiled on Monday, Obama will call for a one-time, 14% tax on an estimated $2.1 trillion in profits piled up abroad over the years by multinationals such as General Electric, Microsoft, Pfizer and Apple.

He will also seek to impose a 19% tax on U.S. companies’ future foreign earnings, the White House said. At present, those earnings are supposed to be taxed at a 35-percent rate, but many companies avoid that through the loophole that defers taxation on active income that is not brought into the United States, or repatriated. The $238 billion raised from the one-time tax would fund repairs and improvements to roads, bridges, transit systems and freight networks that would replenish the Highway Trust Fund as part of a $478 billion package, the White House said. The annual budget proposal is as much a political document as a fiscal roadmap, requiring approval from Congress. Given Washington’s current political division, much of what will be laid out on Monday is unlikely to become law.

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Jan 262015
 
 January 26, 2015  Posted by at 11:35 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , ,  9 Responses »


Matson Aircraft refueling at Semakh, British Mandate Palestine 1931

In what universe is it a good thing to have over half of the young people in entire countries without work, without prospects, without a future? And then when they stand up and complain, threaten them with worse? How can that possibly be the best we can do? And how much worse would you like to make it? If a flood of suicides and miscarriages, plummeting birth rates and doctors turning tricks is not bad enough yet, what would be?

If you live in Germany or Finland, and it were indeed true that maintaining your present lifestyle depends on squeezing the population of Greece into utter misery, what would your response be? F##k ’em? You know what, even if that were so, your nations have entered into a union with Greece (and Spain, and Portugal et al), and that means you can’t only reap the riches on your side and leave them with the bitter fruit. That would make that union pointless, even toxic. You understand that, right?

Greece is still an utterly corrupt country. Brussels knows this, but it has kept supporting a government that supports the corrupt elite, tried to steer the Greeks away from voting SYRIZA. Why? How much does Brussels like corrupt elites, exactly? The EU, and its richer member nations, want Greece to cut even more, given the suicides, miscarriages, plummeting birth rates and doctors turning tricks. How blind is that? Again, how much worse does it have to get?

Does the EU have any moral values at all? And if not, why are you, if you live in the EU, part of it? Because you don’t have any, either? And if you do, where’s your voice? There are people suffering and dying who are part of a union that you are part of. That makes you an accomplice. You can’t hide from that just because your media choose to ignore your reality from you.

And it doesn’t stop there. It’s not just a lack of morals. The powers that be within the EU deliberately unleashed shock therapy on Greece – helped along by Goldman Sachs and the IMF, granted -. All supra-national organizations tend towards zero moral values. It’s inherent in their structures. We have NATO, IMF, World Bank, EU, and there’s many more. It’s about the lack of accountability, and the attraction that very lack has for certain characters. Flies and honey.

So that’s where I would tend to differ from people like Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis, the man seen as SYRIZA’s new finance minister, and also the man who last night very graciously, in the midst of what must have been a wild festive night in Athens, responded to my congratulations email, saying he knows what Dr Evil Brussels is capable of. I don’t see trying to appease Brussels as a successful long term move, and I think Athens should simply say thanks, but no, thanks. But I’m a writer in a glass tower, and they have to face the music, I know.

But let’s get a proper perspective on this. And for that, first let’s get back to Steve Keen (you now he’s a personal friend of The Automatic Earth). Here’s what I think is important. His piece last week lays the foundation for SYRIZA’s negotiations with the EU better than anything could. Steve blames the EU outright for the situation Greece is in. Let’s see them break down the case he makes. And then talk.

It’s All The Greeks’ Fault

Politically paralyzed Washington talked austerity, but never actually imposed it. So who was more successful: the deliberate, policy-driven EU attempt to reduce government debt, or the “muddle through” USA? [..]muddle through was a hands-down winner: the USA’s government debt to GDP ratio has stabilized at 90% of GDP, while Spain’s has sailed past 100%. The USA’s macroeconomic performance has also been far better than Spain’s under the EU’s policy of austerity.

[..] simply on the data, the prima facie case is that all of Spain’s problems – and by inference, most of Greece’s – are due to austerity, rather than Spain’s (or Greece’s) own failings. On the data alone, the EU should “Cry Uncle”, concede Greece’s point, stop imposing austerity, and talk debt-writeoffs – especially since the Greeks can argue that at least part of its excessive public debt ratio is due to the failure of the EU’s austerity policies to reduce it.

[..] why did austerity in Europe fail to reduce the government debt ratio, while muddle-through has stabilized it in the USA? .. the key factor that I consider and mainstream economists ignore—the level and rate of change of private debt. The first clue this gives us is that the EU’s pre-crisis poster-boy, Spain, had the greatest growth in private debt of the three—far exceeding the USA’s. Its peak debt level was also much higher—225% of GDP in mid-2010 versus 170% of GDP for the USA in 2009

[..] the factor that Greece and Spain have in common is that the private sector is reducing its debt level drastically – in Spain’s case by over 20% per year. The USA, on the other hand, ended its private sector deleveraging way back in 2012. Today, Americans are increasing their private debt levels at a rate of about 5% of GDP per year—well below the peak levels prior to the crisis, but roughly in line with the rate of growth of nominal GDP.

[..] the conclusion is that Greece’s crisis is the EU’s fault, and the EU should “pay” via the debt write-offs that Syriza wants – and then some.

That’s not the attitude Berlin and Brussels go into the talks with Tsipras and Varoufakis with. They instead claim Greece owes them €240 billion, and nobody ever talks about what EU crap cost the PIIGS. But Steve is not a push-over. He made Paul Krugman look like a little girl a few years ago, when the latter chose to volunteer, and attack Steve on the issue, that – in a few words – banks have no role in credit creation.

Back to Yanis. The right wing Daily Telegraph, of all places, ran a piece today just about fully – and somewhat strangely – endorsing our left wing Greek economist. Ain’t life a party?

Yanis Varoufakis: Greece’s Future Finance Minister Is No Extremist

Syriza, a hard left party, that outrightly rejects EU-imposed austerity, has given Greek politics its greatest electoral shake-up in at least 40 years.

Hold, wait, don’t let’s ignore that 40 years ago is when Greece ended a military dictatorship. Which had been endorsed by, you know, NATO, US … So “greatest electoral shake-up” is a bit of a stretch. To say the least. There was nothing electoral about Greece pre-1975.

You might expect the frontrunner for the role of finance minister to be a radical zealot, who could throw Greece into the fire He is not. Yanis Varoufakis, the man tipped to be at the core of whatever coalition Syriza forges, is obviously a man of the left. Yet through his career, he has drawn on some of the most passionate advocates of free markets. While consulting at computer games company Valve, Mr Varoufakis cited nobel-prize winner Friedrich Hayek and classical liberal Adam Smith, in order to bring capitalism to places it had never touched.

[..] while Greece’s future minister is a fan of markets in many contexts, it is apparent that he remains a leftist, and one committed to the euro project. Speaking to the BBC on Monday, he said that it would “take an eight or nine year old” to understand the constraints which had bound Greece up since it “tragically” went bankrupt in 2010. “Europe in its infinite wisdom decided to deal with this bankruptcy by loading the largest loan in human history on the weakest of shoulders, the Greek taxpayer,” he said.

“What we’ve been having ever since is a kind of fiscal waterboarding that have turned this nation into a debt colony,” he added. Greece’s public debt to GDP now stands at an eye watering 175%, largely the result of output having fallen off a cliff in the past few years. Stringent austerity measures have not helped, but instead likely contributed.

That last line, from a right wing paper? That’s the same thing Steve Keen said. Even the Telegraph says Brussels is to blame.

It will likely be Mr Varoufakis’ job to make the best of an impossible situation. The first thing he will seek to tackle is Greece’s humanitarian crisis. “It is preposterous that in 2015 we have people that had jobs, and homes, and some of them had shops until a couple of years ago, that are now sleeping rough”, he told Channel 4. The party may now go after multinationals and wealthy individuals that it believes do not pay their way.

[..]The single currency project has fallen under heavy criticism. The economies that formed it were poorly harmonised, and no amount of cobbling together could make the end result appear coherent. Michael Cembalest, of JP Morgan, calculated in 2012 that a union made up of all countries beginning with the letter “M” would have been more workable. The same would be true of all former countries of the Ottoman Empire circa 1800, or of a reconstituted Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, he found.

That’s just brilliant, great comparisons. Got to love that. And again, it reinforces my idea that the EU should simply be demolished, and Greece should not try and stay within eurozone parameters. It may look useful now, but down the line the euro has no future. There’s too much debt to go around. But for SYRIZA, I know, that is not the most practical stance to take right now. The demise of the euro will come in and of itself, and their immediate attention needs to go to Greece, not to some toxic politics game. Good on ’em. But the fact remains. The euro’s done. And SYRIZA, whether it likes it or not, is very much an early warning sign of that.

[..] A disorderly break up would almost certainly result in a merciless devaluation of whatever currency Greece launched, and in turn a default on debt obligations. The country would likely be locked out of the capital markets, unable to raise new funds. As an economy, Greece has only just begun to see output growth return. GDP still remains more than 26% below the country’s pre-crisis peak. A fresh default is not the lifeline that Greece needs.

Instead, it will be up to a Syriza-led government to negotiate some sort of debt relief, whether that be in the form of a restructuring, a deal to provide leeway on repayment timings, or all out forgiveness. It will be up to Mr Varoufakis – if he is selected as finance minister – and newly sworn in Prime Minister Alex Tspiras to ensure that this can be achieved without Greece getting pushed out of the currency bloc in the process.

And whaddaya know, Steve Keen finishes it off too. Complete with history lessons, a take-and-shake down of failed economic policies, and a condemnation of the neo-liberal politics that wrecked Greek society so much they voted SYRIZA. It’s not rocket politics…

Dawn Of A New Politics In Europe?

About 40 years ago, one of Maggie Thatcher’s chief advisors remarked that he wouldn’t be satisfied when the Conservative Party was in government: he would only be happy when there were two conservative parties vying for office. He got his wish of course. The UK Labour Party of the 1950s that espoused socialism gave way to Tony Blair’s New Labour, and the same shift occurred worldwide, as justified disillusionment about socialism as it was actually practiced—as opposed to the fantasies about socialism dreamed up by 19th century revolutionaries—set in.

Parties to the left of the political centre—the Democrats in the USA, Labour in the UK, even the Socialist Party that currently governs France—followed essentially the same economic theories and policies as their conservative rivals.

Differences in economic policy, which were once sharp Left-anti-market/Right-pro-market divides, became shades of grey on the pro-market side. Both sides of politics accepted the empirical fact that market systems worked better than state-run systems. The differences came down to assertions over who was better at conducting a pro-market economic agenda, plus disputes over the extent of the government’s role in the cases where a market failure could be identified.

So how do we interpret the success of Syriza in the Greek elections on Sunday, when this avowedly anti-austerity, left-wing party toppled the left-Neoliberal Pasok and right-Neoliberal New Democracy parties that, between them, had ruled Greece for the previous 4 decades? Is it a return to the pro-market/anti-market divides of the 1950s? No—or rather, it doesn’t have to be.

It can instead be a realisation that, though an actual market economy is indeed superior to an actual centrally planned one, the model of the market that both sides of politics accepted was wrong. That model—known as Neoliberalism in political circles, and Neoclassical Economics in the economic ones in which I move—exalts capitalism for a range of characteristics it doesn’t actually have, while ignoring characteristics that it does have which are the real sources of both capitalism’s vitality and its problems.

Capitalism’s paramount virtues, as espoused by the Neoliberal model of capitalism, are stability and efficiency. But ironically, the real virtue of capitalism is its creative instability—and that necessarily involves waste rather than efficiency. This creative instability is the real reason it defeated socialism, while simultaneously one of the key reasons socialism failed was because of its emphasis upon stability and efficiency.

[..] real-world capitalism trounced real-world socialism because of its real-world strength—the creative instability of the market that means to survive, firms must innovate—and not because of the Neoliberal model that politicians of both the Left and the Right fell for after the collapse of socialism.

Neoliberalism prospered in politics for the next 40 years, not because of what it got right about the economy (which is very little), but because of what it ignored—the capacity of the finance sector to blow a bubble that expanded for almost 40 years, until it burst in 2007. The Neoliberal model’s emphasis on making the government sector as small as possible could work while an expanding finance sector generated the money needed to fuel economic prosperity. When that bubble burst, leaving a huge overhang of private debt in its wake, Neoliberalism led not to prosperity but to a second Great Depression.

The Greeks rejected that false model of capitalism on Sunday—not capitalism itself. The new Syriza-led Government will have to contend with countries where politicians are still beholden to that false model, which will make their task more difficult than it is already. But Syriza’s victory may show that the days of Neoliberalism are numbered. Until Sunday, any party espousing anything other than Neoliberalism as its core economic policy could be slaughtered in campaigning by pointing out that its policies were rejected by economic authorities like the IMF and the OECD.

Syriza’s opponents did precisely that in Greece—and Syriza’s lead over them increased. This is the real takeaway from the Greek elections: a new politics that supports capitalism but rejects Neoliberalism is possible.

All Europeans, and Americans too, must now support SYRIZA. It’s not only the only hope for Greece, it is that for the entire EU. SYRIZA breaks the mold. Greeks themselves would be terribly stupid to start taking their money out of their accounts and precipitating bank runs. That’s what the EU wants you to do, create mayhem and discredit the younger generation that took over this weekend.

It’s going to be a bitter fight. The entrenched powers, guaranteed, won’t give up without bloodshed. SYRIZA stands for defeating a model, not just a government. Most of Europe today is in the hands of technocrats and their ilk, it’s all technocrats and their little helpers. And it’s no just that, it’s that the neo-liberal Brussels crowd used Athens as a test case, in the exact same way Milton Friedman and his Chicago School used the likes of Videla and Pinochet to make their point, and tens of thousands got murdered in the process.

It’s important that we all, European or not, grasp how lacking in morality the entire system prevalent in the west, including the EU, has become. This shows in East Ukraine, where sheer propaganda has shaped opinions for at least a full year now. It’s not about what is real, it’s about what ‘leaders’ would like you to think and believe. And this same immorality has conquered Greece too; there may be no guns, but there are plenty victims.

The EU is a disgrace, a predatory beast unleashed upon all corners of Europe that resist central control and, well, debt slavery really, if you live on the wrong side of the tracks.

SYRIZA may be the last chance Europe has to right its wrongs, before fighting in the streets becomes an everyday reality. Before we get there, and I don’t know that we can prevent it, hear Steve Keen: it’s not the Greeks that screwed up, it’s the EU. But they would never ever admit to that.

Jan 252015
 
 January 25, 2015  Posted by at 1:51 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  3 Responses »


DPC Sidewalk newsstand NY 1900

It’s All The Greeks’ Fault (Steve Keen)
Is Greece About To Call Time On Five Punishing Years Of Austerity? (Observer)
Draghi’s QE Promise To Greece Depends On Debt-Market Math (Bloomberg)
Spain’s Rajoy on the Defensive as New Generation Seeks Power (Bloomberg)
8 Ways ECB’s QE Will Hurt Everyone But The Wealthy (Zero Hedge)
Carney Warns Of Liquidity Storm As Global Currency System Turns Upside Down (AEP)
Devaluation And Discord As The World’s Currencies Quietly Go To War (Observer)
Oil Collapse Could Trigger Billions In Bank Losses (Telegraph)
Dalio’s Call for Doom Borne Out in Mom and Pop Fleeing Junk Debt (Bloomberg)
Get Ready For Negative Interest Rates In The US (Mises.ca)
Venezuela Currency Woes An Increasing Threat To US Corporate Profits (Reuters)
Hard Times Return As China Bids To Bring Its Economic Miracle To An End (Observer)
Ukraine Stiffs China for Billions Owed (RINF)
Fears Of Pension Chaos In Runup To UK Election (Observer)
You Don’t Understand How People Get Poor? You’re Probably A Sociopath (Guardian)
The Hunting of Billie Holiday (Politico)

Steve tackles two issues at once: austerity doesn’t work, and Greek debts were not nearly as bad as we were told.

It’s All The Greeks’ Fault (Steve Keen)

If the polls are right, then this Sunday Greece will elect Syriza, the left-wing coalition party (its name is actually a Greek acronym for “Coalition of the Radical Left”). This will bring to power the first staunchly anti-austerity party in the EU, and the first element in their policy document is to “Write-off the greater part of public debt”. That is likely to lead to some fractious negotiations with the EU, and possibly even a messy exit from the Euro. Before that happens, there will be some messy commentary in the media as well, and I fully expect most commentators to take a line like that in my title. After all, it’s common knowledge that the Greeks lied about their levels of public debt to appear to qualify for the EU’s entry criteria, which include that aggregate public debt should be below 60% of GDP.

Though there’s an argument that Goldman Sachs, many of whose ex-staff are now leading Central Bankers, helped the Greeks make this alleged lie, the responsibility for it will be shafted home to the Greeks, and that in turn will be used to argue that the Greeks deserve to suffer. The story, in other words, will be that the Greeks were architects of their own dilemma, and that therefore they should pay for it, rather than making the rest of the world suffer through a write-down of their debts. Emotion will rule the debate rather than logic. So to cast a logical eye over this forthcoming debate, I’m going to consider who is really to blame for the Greek dilemma by considering another country entirely: Spain.

Spain’s situation lets us get away from Greece’s emotional baggage. Today, Greece and Spain are in very similar situations, with unemployment rates of well over 25%—higher than the worst the USA recorded during the Great Depression (see Figure 1). But unlike Greece, Spain before the crisis was doing everything right, according to the EU. More importantly still, Spain’s government debt when the EU imposed its austerity regime (mid-2010) was still well below America’s, even though both had risen substantially since the crisis. Spain’s government debt ratio was 65% of GDP then, versus 78% for the USA.

The whole purpose of the EU’s austerity program was to reduce government debt levels. Reducing government debt was the political topic du jour in America as well from 2010 on, but the various attempts to impose austerity came to naught: instead, after shooting up because of deliberate policy at the time of the crisis America’s budget deficit merely responded to the state of the economy. Politically paralyzed Washington talked austerity, but never actually imposed it. So who was more successful: the deliberate, policy-driven EU attempt to reduce government debt, or the “muddle through” USA? [..] muddle through was a hands-down winner: the USA’s government debt to GDP ratio has stabilized at 90% of GDP, while Spain’s has sailed past 100%.

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“The European policy towards Greece has been determined by the will to experiment with the feasibility of shock therapies.”

Is Greece About To Call Time On Five Punishing Years Of Austerity? (Observer)

For Professor Constantine Tsoukalas, Greece’s pre-eminent sociologist, there is no question that, come Monday, Europe will have reached a watershed. I first met Tsoukalas in January 2009, in his lofty, book-lined apartment in Kolonaki. For several weeks Athens had been shaken by riots triggered by the police shooting of a teenage boy. The violence was tumultuous and prolonged. Looking back, it is clear that this was the start of the crisis – a cry for help by a dislocated youth robbed of hope as a result of surging unemployment and enraged by a system that, corrupt and inefficient, favoured the few. Tsoukalas knew that this was “the beginning of something” although he could not tell what. But with great prescience he spoke of the degeneration of politics – both inside and outside Greece – the rise of moral indignation, and the emptiness of a globalised market “that was supposed to put an end to ideology but, in crisis, has instead created this moment of great ideological tension”.

Six years later, following the longest recession on record, he is in little doubt that anger has fuelled the rise of Syriza. On the back of rage over austerity, the leftists have seen their popularity soar from 5% before the crisis to as high as 35% – more than the combined total of New Democracy and left-leaning Pasok, the two parties that have alternated in power since the restoration of democracy in 1974. Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, the group that has been the other beneficiary of despair – but whose support has dropped amid revelations of criminal activity – may yet surprise if it succeeds in coming in third. “The European policy towards Greece, to a large extent, has been determined by the will to experiment with the feasibility of shock therapies,” says Tsoukalas. “It worked, but the reaction is going to be a leftwing government. Europe cannot survive as it is. The rise of fascism … should be sufficient [evidence] to everyone that it has to change.”

If Greece’s rebellion was to occur in a coherent way, Tsoukalas, who is being fielded by Syriza as an honorary candidate, believes it would be only a matter of time before it was replicated in other parts of the continent. “These elections are important because they are a reminder to the people of Europe that there is another way out,” he insists. “That neoliberal orthodoxy is not an immovable problem.” The business community, no ally of the left in a nation where communists were hounded for much of the 20th century, is bracing itself for the inevitable. But it has found it hard to conceal its anxiety. With bailout funds guaranteed only until the end of February – and negotiations with creditors at the EU, ECB and IMF still stalled over the need for further austerity – there are fears of a bank run, or worse.

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Nice math.

Draghi’s QE Promise To Greece Depends On Debt-Market Math (Bloomberg)

Greece’s inclusion in the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan this year doesn’t just depend on its new government sticking to a bailout program. It also relies on some debt-market arithmetic. When ECB President Mario Draghi presented his quantitative- easing program on Jan. 22 in Frankfurt, he offered Greece the prospect of eligibility as existing securities roll off in the middle of the year. Those redemptions, he said, would bring the Mediterranean nation back below the ECB’s cap at 33% of an issuer’s debt, which the central bank imposed as Draghi presented initial guidelines. Even after debt matures in July and August, the institution’s share of Greek bonds won’t drop below 33% for the whole of 2015, assuming no new securities are issued, according to calculations based on data compiled by Bloomberg.

It takes the inclusion of treasury bills to bring the ECB’s holdings below the cap. It currently owns just under 33% of the entire Greek debt market, and that would fall further, creating room for QE purchases, once the 2015 bonds owned by the ECB mature. That calculation is based on the supply of bills, or short-term money-market securities, remaining constant. The ECB has yet to say precisely what will be included in its calculations on the allowance for its purchases and an ECB spokesman declined to comment on the calculations. The ECB and euro-area central banks currently own about €27 billion ($30.4 billion) of Greek bonds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, comprising 40% of the total outstanding market of about €67.5 billion.

At the end of this year, by which time €6.6 billion of bonds held by the ECB and in euro-area central banks’ investment portfolios under the Securities Markets Program are due to have been repaid, it would own €20.4 billion out of a total €60.5 billion. That equates to about 34%, still exceeding the limit set by Draghi. If the stock of bills remain the same and are included in the calculation, the ECB’s holdings would drop to 30% by the end of July and 27% by the end of the year. [..] “There are obviously some conditions before we can buy Greek bonds,” Draghi said Jan. 22 in Frankfurt. “There is a waiver that has to remain in place, has to be a program. And then there is this 33% issuer limit, which means that, if all the other conditions are in place, we could buy bonds in, I believe, July, because by then there will be some large redemptions of SMP bonds and therefore we would be within the limit.”

The ECB will buy €60 billion of public and private securities a month, starting in March, Draghi said, adding that the central bank will buy bonds due between two- and 30-years. About €45 billion probably would be sovereign debt, according to a central bank official. ECB buying will be carried out in proportion to each euro- area country’s contribution to the central bank’s capital, Draghi said. Adjusted for non-euro-region central banks, that works out as a 2.9% share for Greece, according to calculations based on data on the ECB’s website, equating to a pace of about €1.3 billion a month, if all other conditions are met.

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One more technocrat needs to go.

Spain’s Rajoy on the Defensive as New Generation Seeks Power (Bloomberg)

Mariano Rajoy is struggling to convince Spaniards he can lead the country into a new period of prosperity as a younger generation of politicians challenges his grip on power. The 60-year-old prime minister has been eclipsed in recent surveys by Pablo Iglesias, 36, the leader of the newly created anti-austerity party Podemos, while the 42-year-old Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez says Rajoy is out-of-date. Even within the government, 43-year-old Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria’s approval rating was 11%age points higher than her bosses, in a Metroscopia poll for El Pais newspaper released last month. Spanish voters are desperate for change after a seven-year economic slump pushed unemployment to a record 26% in 2013.

While Rajoy has stabilized the economy and forecasts the fastest growth in seven years for 2015, his support has plunged amid a series of corruption scandals. “Youth is not a political asset in itself, but Rajoy looks very old,” Podemos founder and executive committee member Juan Carlos Monedero, 51, said in an interview. “He would look like a member of the soviet old guard if he was sat round a table with Sanchez and Iglesias.” The prime minister will kick off his battle to prove his enduring relevance to Spaniards Friday in Madrid when his People’s Party begins its national conference. That will mark the beginning of a year of campaigning which will include local and regional elections in May and a ballot in Catalonia in September before a general election due around the end of year.

Rajoy appointed 33-year-old lawmaker Pablo Casado spokesman for the local election campaign Jan. 12. While the official agenda will be focused on PP plans to nurture the economy and boost living standards, talk on the sidelines may be dominated by the release on bail last night of the party’s former treasurer, Luis Barcenas. Barcenas told the National Court in 2013 that he helped manage a secret party slush fund over 20 years. He named Rajoy among the beneficiaries and gave the court handwritten ledgers showing the payments. Rajoy has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. Prosecutors are seeking a 42 1/2-year jail term for Barcenas for his role in the scheme.

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“..even the benefits to those who stand to gain the most from QE are only temporary. Because the same asset prices which rise thanks to money printing are only transitory, and ultimately mean reverting.”

8 Ways ECB’s QE Will Hurt Everyone But The Wealthy (Zero Hedge)

Over the past 48 hours, the world has been bombarded with a relentless array of soundbites, originating either at the ECB, or – inexplicably – out of Greece, the place which has been explicitly isolated by Frankfurt, that the European Central Bank’s QE will benefit everyone. Setting the record straight: it won’t, and not just in our own words which most are familiar with as we have been repeating them since 2009, but those of JPM’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who just said what has been painfully clear to all but the 99% ever since the start of QE, namely this: “The wealth effects that come with QE are not evenly distributing. The boost in equity and housing wealth is mostly benefiting their major owners, i.e. the wealthy.” Thank you JPM. Now if only the central banks will also admit what we have been saying for 6 years, then there will be one less reason for us to continue existing.

And of course, even the benefits to those who stand to gain the most from QE are only temporary. Because the same asset prices which rise thanks to money printing are only transitory, and ultimately mean reverting. To wit: “It potentially creates asset bubbles by lowering asset yields by so much relative to historical norms, that an eventual return to normality will be accompanied with sharp price declines.” So enjoy your music while it lasts dear 0.1%. Collateral eligible for monetization is becoming increasingly scarce and by our calculations there is about 2 years worth of runway left for G3 assets before central bank interventions in the private market result in a complete paralysis of virtually every asset class, and the end of capital markets as we know them. As for everyone else, here is a list of 8 ways that the ECB’s QE will hurt, not help, by way of JP Morgan.

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“The big question for us now is about liquidity cycles that come from fund managers that don’t have leverage. It’s $35 trillion of mutual funds that invest in relatively illiquid securities..”

Carney Warns Of Liquidity Storm As Global Currency System Turns Upside Down (AEP)

The Governor of the Bank of England has warned markets to brace for possible trouble in 2015 as the US Fed tightens monetary policy and liquidity evaporates, fearing that the new financial order has yet to face its first real test. Mark Carney said diverging monetary policies in the US, Britain, Europe, and Japan may set off further currency turbulence and “test capital flows across the global economy, including to emerging markets.” It is the latest sign that officials at Threadneedle Street are worried about the global fall-out from the rising dollar, which poses a mounting threat to companies in the developing world that have borrowed up to $9 trillion in US dollars. Mr Carney said regulators have cleaned up the banks and tried to prepare for the tectonic shift taking place in the international currency structure but major risks remain.

“This will test the resilience of that new financial system. It has a potential feedback and we have to be aware of that,” he told an elite group of central bankers at the World Economic Forum. “We are particularly concerned about an illusion of liquidity that has existed in a number of financial markets. I would say that illusion of liquidity is gradually being disabused,” he said, adding that the so-called ‘flash crash’ in the US Treasury market last October was a wake-up call even if the “bouts of losses” have been small so far. Mr Carney said the global authorities have clamped down on excess leverage and the sort of behaviour by banks that caused the financial crisis seven years ago, but new worries have emerged. “The big question for us now is about liquidity cycles that come from fund managers that don’t have leverage. It’s $35 trillion of mutual funds that invest in relatively illiquid securities,” he said.

Global watchdogs say the scale is so large – and subject to “clustering” and crowd psychology – that these funds may all rush for the exits at the same time in a crisis and amplify the effects. The concerns were echoed by Benoît Cœuré, board member of the ECB. “The system is untested. We had a wave of new financial regulation, which has mostly focussed on banks, so we’re pretty sure that banks are much safer,” he said. Mr Cœuré said the ECB was forced to throw caution to the winds and launch a €60bn blitz of bond purchases on Thursday, given that inflation expectations in the eurozone have collapsed, with outright deflation in December. “It was pretty clear we had to do something. The only discussion was how to do it,” he said.”Being patient is a risk that we just don’t want to take. We need growth in Europe. With entrenched unemployment, people are being forced out of the labour market, and we are seeing the whole foundation of the European project being weakened. This cannot last for too long,” he said.

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“Arguably Draghi is only reacting to the US and UK, which printed money to devalue the dollar and sterling immediately after the Lehman collapse, and the Japanese, who have halved the cost of their exports to the US in the last year..”

Devaluation And Discord As The World’s Currencies Quietly Go To War (Observer)

There is every sign that the European Central Bank’s €1.1 trillion stimulus package is going to unleash a long period of beggar-thy-neighbour currency wars. Maybe not quite in the way that wrecked the global economy in the 1930s – triggering retaliatory trade tariffs and sending industrial production spiralling downwards. But enough to dampen the enthusiasm of exporting companies which might be thinking of expanding output. This is a war that pits the central banks of the world’s major trading blocs against each other and, as currencies yo-yo in value, creates a nervousness and caution among investors that can create years of stagnation. Two economists who warned of a looming credit crunch in 2007 are now warning about the onset of competitive devaluations driven by central bank policies.

Before Davos, William White, a senior OECD official and a former chief economist to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), told the Daily Telegraph: “We’re seeing true currency wars and everybody is doing it, and I have no idea where this is going to end.” In the Guardian before Christmas, Nouriel Roubini, the economist known as Dr Doom for his prescient predictions of calamity, warned that while it was possible for one or two small nations to quietly devalue, a look around the world revealed almost every country devaluing against the dollar and each other. The euro has fallen almost 20% against the dollar over the past seven months and is destined to take another dive following the announcement last Thursday of the ECB’s QE scheme. Who knows, the euro could be below $1 in a few months’ time.

Last year it was worth almost $1.40. ECB president Mario Draghi says the value of the euro is not an official target. Yet he has talked at previous meetings about his concern that the currency is out of step with the poorly performing eurozone economy. He hoped currency traders would do his work for him. In the end he has been forced to print money, and lots of it, to drive down the euro’s value. Arguably Draghi is only reacting to the US and UK, which printed money to devalue the dollar and sterling immediately after the Lehman collapse, and the Japanese, who have halved the cost of their exports to the US in the last year by doing the same. In November, Japan’s central bank cranked up the printing presses further, saying it planned to increase QE asset purchases to $700bn a year. Ask Tokyo officials about the policy and they will say it is legitimate as a short-term fix while deeper structural reforms are pushed through. How long is the short term? Prime minister Shinzo Abe won’t say.

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Could? “Wells Fargo and JPMorgan have both been bookrunners on almost $100 billion [of leveraged oil and gas loans] since the start of 2011..”

Oil Collapse Could Trigger Billions In Bank Losses (Telegraph)

British banks including RBS and Barclays may be sitting on billions in losses from the collapse in oil prices after a surge in junk loans to the industry. UK banks have been behind more than $50bn of leveraged loans – high-yield, non-investment grade debt – to the oil and gas industry in the past four years, according to data from Dealogic. Although British lenders are not the most exposed to the oil collapse, with most debt issuance arranged by US and Canadian institutions, leveraged loans arranged by UK lenders have more than doubled since 2011 amid the North American shale boom. While low prices are likely to give a shot in the arm to consumers and manufacturers, many oil producers, particularly in America’s shale gas fields, are likely to be driven out of business. A lengthy period of cheap crude is likely to trigger widespread defaults and many oil and gas loans are now changing hands for well below their face value as investors fear they will not get their money back.

Banks will offload many of the loans and hedge their losses, and some will have stricter lending standards for high-yield loans than others. Losses will also depend on how long the oil price stays low, so it is unclear precisely how exposed the banks are to the energy industry’s woes. Some lenders have privately indicated that they consider the oil price fall to have a positive impact, with the wider economic benefits offsetting the loans they are writing off. However, significant losses are seen as inevitable if prices fail to rebound. Chirantan Barua at Bernstein Research has estimated that the combined losses of Barclays, RBS, HSBC and Standard Chartered from falling oil prices could amount to $3.4bn. “Someone is feeling the pain,” said Mr Barua. “When you see [this much] high-yield issuance in a sector that has been levering up across the supply chain, any shocks in the underlying business will have risk ripples across the financial system.”

According to Dealogic’s data, RBS has arranged $14.3bn of leveraged oil and gas loans in the past four years, making it the biggest UK player in the high-yield space. This compares to $10.5bn for Barclays and $4.7bn for HSBC, but is far less than the biggest Wall Street players. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan have both been bookrunners on almost $100bn since the start of 2011. Leveraged loans to the industry hit a record high of $72.7bn in the second quarter of last year, before crude’s collapse. They then fell to $53.4bn in the third quarter and $47.8bn in the fourth quarter of 2014.

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“The juicy yields that were around during the aftermath of the crisis are gone, and some investors, it would appear, are opting to just hang onto their cash instead.”

Dalio’s Call for Doom Borne Out in Mom and Pop Fleeing Junk Debt (Bloomberg)

The promise of yet another trillion-dollar cash infusion from a central bank isn’t enough to bring individual investors back into the market for risky corporate debt. In fact, they keep bailing. Investors pulled $523 million from global high-yield bond mutual and exchange-traded funds in the week ended Jan. 21, according to data compiled by EPFR Global. They withdrew $868 million from funds that buy U.S. speculative-grade loans, bringing their total assets below $100 billion for the first time since September 2013, Wells Fargo data show. The goal of the European Central Bank’s new 1.1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) euro bond-buying program announced Thursday is to push investors into less-creditworthy notes for bigger – or even just positive – returns.

So, why aren’t junk bonds getting a serious boost? Individual investors are either leaving a seemingly indefatigable party in risky debt too early, or their sentiment is a harbinger of a deeper, more worrisome idea: That policy makers’ main tool to ignite growth isn’t working so well anymore. With yields so low, “the transmission of the monetary policy mechanism will be less effective,” said Ray Dalio, the US hedge fund manager. “We have a deflationary set of circumstances,” which makes it appealing to just stuff your money under a mattress, he said at a panel discussion in Davos, Switzerland, this week. The $2 trillion market for global high-yield bonds was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve’s record stimulus in recent years.

The debt gained an annual 16.4% on average in the six years after 2008, with yields shrinking to 7% from a peak of 23% at the height of the credit crisis, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Average borrowing costs are up from a low of 5.6% last year on concern that plunging oil prices will leave speculative-grade energy companies unable to meet their obligations. While the Fed successfully got individuals to chase these risky credits, the ECB may now have a harder time doing the same. The juicy yields that were around during the aftermath of the crisis are gone, and some investors, it would appear, are opting to just hang onto their cash instead.

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Thing is, it wouldn’t make any difference. The dollar will continue to travel home no matter what they do.

Get Ready For Negative Interest Rates In The US (Mises.ca)

I predict that the Fed will start charging negative interest rates on bank reserve accounts, which will ripple through the markets and result in negative interest rates on savings at banks. I make this prediction only because it is the logical action of the Keynesian managers of our economy and monetary policy. Our exporters will scream that they can’t sell goods overseas, due to the stronger dollar. So, what is the Fed’s option? Follow the lead of Switzerland and Denmark and impose negative interest rates in order to drive down the foreign exchange rate of the dollar. It is the final tool in the war on savings and wealth in order to spur the Keynesian goal of increasing “aggregate demand”. If savers won’t spend their money, the government will take it from them.

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Not just pennies either. Ford $800 million, Kimberly-Clark $462 million in pre-tax charges.

Venezuela Currency Woes An Increasing Threat To US Corporate Profits (Reuters)

Venezuela’s deepening economic troubles, and in particular the weakness of the bolivar and restrictive currency controls, have hurt U.S. corporate profits for the fourth quarter of 2014 and are set to inflict further pain this year. In a likely sign of things to come from a number of companies this results reporting season, Ford on Friday said it was taking a pre-tax charge of $800 million for its Venezuela business. It blamed Venezuelan exchange control regulations that have restricted the ability of its operations in the country to pay dividends and obligations in U.S. dollars. Ford also said that it was unable to maintain normal production in Venezuela with the availability of vehicle parts constrained.

Also on Friday, diaper and tissue maker Kimberly-Clark said it took a fourth-quarter charge of $462 million for its Venezuelan business. That was after it concluded that the appropriate rate at which it should be measuring its bolivar-denominated monetary assets should be a Venezuelan government floating exchange rate – currently at around 50 bolivars to the dollar – rather than a fixed official rate of 6.3 to the dollar that it had previously been using. Kimberly-Clark blamed increased uncertainty and lack of liquidity in Venezuela for the move.

Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro said on Wednesday he was shaking up the complex currency controls in the socialist-run country, where dollars are sold on the black market for about 184 bolivars to the U.S. dollar instead of the country’s three-tiered exchange rate system that has ranged from the 6.3 official rate to two other rates, currently at about 12 and the one at around 50. Those latter two tiers of the system would be merged, he said, though it is not immediately known at what rate that would happen. Maduro also announced that another new rate would be introduced into the system to offer dollars via private brokers to vie with the black market rate.

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“Her analysis of Chinese data suggests growth is actually considerably slower than official figures suggest.”

Hard Times Return As China Bids To Bring Its Economic Miracle To An End (Observer)

China’s president, Xi Jinping, calls it the “new normal” – but strikes are increasing, wages going unpaid and businesses are struggling to survive as the vast economy adjusts to a more sedate pace of growth after more than a decade of explosive expansion. Official figures published last week showed that China’s GDP expanded by 7.4% in 2014. That was a significant drop from the 7.7% seen in 2013, and the weakest rate of growth since 1990, when the country was grappling with international sanctions in the wake of the Tiananmen Square massacre. And while the government has spun the downturn as a good thing, as it deliberately shifts from an unsustainable, export-led boom to relying on demand at home to fuel economic growth, people across the country are feeling the heat.

Coal and copper prices are down owing to lack of demand; strikes and protests are becoming increasingly common. The prospect of weaker demand from China has also been a key factor behind plunging global oil prices. “From an industry point of view, obviously the hardest hit are the miners and the upstream players – the iron ore industry, steel, refineries, they’re all being really squeezed,” said Andrew Polk, a senior economist at research group The Conference Board. “China’s consumption has held up relatively well so far, but [the slowdown] looks to be finally feeding through to the consumption side as well.” And while the downturn is, on one level, intentional, policymakers face a tough challenge in engineering a slowdown while maintaining enough control over the financial system to prevent a crash.

Growth is expected to slow further over the next three years, as officials act to control the sliding property market and rein in excessive borrowing by local government — the International Monetary Fund has projected a 2015 growth rate of 6.8%. “The financial crisis dealt a mortal blow to the export-led growth model, for two reasons,” said Diana Choyleva, an expert on China at consultancy Lombard Street Research. “One was the slowdown in global demand, and the other was the adjustment of the yuan against the dollar. Not only has the size of the pie reduced, but their ability to carve out ever-larger parts of it has diminished.” Her analysis of Chinese data suggests growth is actually considerably slower than official figures suggest.

Read more …

Note: the finance team in Kiev is now made up of Americans.

Ukraine Stiffs China for Billions Owed (RINF)

China paid Ukraine $3 billion two years ago for grain still not delivered, now demands refund. Another $3.6 billion that’s owed to China will probably also default. Russia’s RIA Novosti News Agency reported, on January 17th, that China is demanding refund of $1.5 billion in cash and of an additional $1.5 billion in Chinese goods that were paid in advance by China (in 2013), for a 2012 Chinese order of grain from Ukraine, which goods still have not been supplied to China. According to RIAN, “State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine supplied grain in 2013, elsewhere, but not to China. The new Kiev authorities had an opportunity to fix the short-sighted actions ‘of the [previous] Yanukovych regime,’ and to present a positive economic image to the Chinese.” But it didn’t happen.

Furthermore: “Prior to the Presidency of Yanukovych [which started in 2010], China’s leadership had simply refused to do business with the pre-Yanukovych Administration’s Yulia Tymoshenko, and they planned to wait until Yanukovych became President. He then came, and since has been ousted, and yet still only $153 million of grain has been delivered.” (None of the $1.5 billion cash that China advanced to Ukraine to pay for growing and shipping grain has been returned to China, but only the $153M that had essentially been swapped: Chinese goods for Ukrainian grain.) This $153 million was approximately as much as the interest that would be due on China’s prepayment, and so Ukraine still owes China the full $3 billion ($1.5 billion in cash, + $1.5 billion that China supplied in goods).

The RIAN report goes on to quote Alex Luponosov, a Ukrainian authority on Ukraine’s banking system, who says, “Ukraine won’t be able to supply the grain to China, because we don’t have it.” The reason he gives is that “there is a big shortage of technicians: combiners, adjusters, mechanics, farm-machinery operators — all of them were taken by the army.” Those men are being required to fight in Ukraine’s ‘ATO’ or ‘Anti Terrorist Operation,’ that’s occurring in Ukraine’s former Donbass region (the far-eastern tip of Ukraine), the place where the residents don’t accept the new Ukrainian Government’s legitimacy, and they are therefore being called ‘Terrorists’ by this new Government, which is thus bombing them, supposedly in order to convince them that this new Government’s authority over them is legitimate (even though the residents there never participated in its selection, and have been cut off even from Ukraine’s social-security payments).

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The policy may be a good idea, but the timing is unashamedly intended to buy votes.” Actually, the policy is toxic.

Fears Of Pension Chaos In Runup To UK Election (Observer)

Ministers have warned people who will be 55 or over this spring to delay exercising new rights to cash in their pension pots in April, amid rising fears that the industry will not be able to cope and that insufficient advice systems are in place. The cautionary message, issued by pensions minister Steve Webb, reflects growing nervousness in government that the pensions revolution of the chancellor, George Osborne – which he said would give people the right to “choose what they do with their money” from April – could turn into a fiasco in the runup to the 7 May general election. Leading pension providers and industry experts, although supporting the government’s objective of giving people greater access to their pensions savings, told the Observer that pensions companies face being swamped by demands for cash after 6 April, before the industry is ready, or customer advice networks have been established.

Tom McPhail, head of pensions research at leading pensions company Hargreaves Lansdown, said the government had tried to force through the changes at “reckless” speed in what seemed a clear attempt to make people feel richer before election day. “There is widespread support for these reforms, both from the pensions industry and from investors,” McPhail said. “The problem is the reckless pace with which the changes are being introduced. “There’s a pretty transparent political agenda to unlock billions of pounds of pension money just a month before the general election. The policy may be a good idea, but the timing is unashamedly intended to buy votes.” He added: “With such radical and profound reforms as these, under normal circumstances you’d expect to take at least another year before implementing them, in order to make sure all the various players involved were ready. Unfortunately the industry does not have that luxury and as a result many pension providers will be woefully unprepared on 6 April.”

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Good argument.

You Don’t Understand How People Get Poor? You’re Probably A Sociopath (Guardian)

I don’t understand how the people in charge of us all don’t understand. If you are genuinely unable to apply your imagination and extend your empathy far enough – and you don’t have to do it all at once; little by little will suffice, but you must get there – then you are a sociopath, and we should all be protected from your actions. If you are in fact able and choose not to, then you’re something quite a lot worse. So, these are the questions I’d like to see pursued once the televised prime ministerial debates begin (if enough speakers agree to turn up, natch): have you ever had a bad day? Have you ever been really, really tired? Have you ever been alone, or frightened, or not had a choice about something? If yes, was your response unique among man? If no, are you a madman or a liar? Do tell. Do tell.

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Big fan. Billie and Callas.

The Hunting of Billie Holiday (Politico)

One night, in 1939, Billie Holiday stood on stage in New York City and sang a song that was unlike anything anyone had heard before. ‘Strange Fruit’ was a musical lament against lynching. It imagined black bodies hanging from trees as a dark fruit native to the South. Here was a black woman, before a mixed audience, grieving for the racist murders in the United States. Immediately after, Billie Holiday received her first threat from the Federal Bureau of Narcotics. Harry had heard whispers that she was using heroin, and—after she flatly refused to be silent about racism—he assigned an agent named Jimmy Fletcher to track her every move. Harry hated to hire black agents, but if he sent white guys into Harlem and Baltimore, they stood out straight away. Jimmy Fletcher was the answer.

His job was to bust his own people, but Anslinger was insistent that no black man in his Bureau could ever become a white man’s boss. Jimmy was allowed through the door at the Bureau, but never up the stairs. He was and would remain an “archive man”—a street agent whose job was to figure out who was selling, who was supplying and who should be busted. He would carry large amounts of drugs with him, and he was allowed to deal drugs himself so he could gain the confidence of the people he was secretly plotting to arrest. Many agents in this position would shoot heroin with their clients, to “prove” they weren’t cops. We don’t know whether Jimmy joined in, but we do know he had no pity for addicts: “I never knew a victim,” he said. “You victimize yourself by becoming a junkie.”

He first saw Billie in her brother-in-law’s apartment, where she was drinking enough booze to stun a horse and hoovering up vast quantities of cocaine. The next time he saw her, it was in a brothel in Harlem, doing exactly the same. Billie’s greatest talent, after singing, was swearing—if she called you a “motherfucker,” it was a great compliment. We don’t know the first time Billie called Jimmy a motherfucker, but she soon spotted this man who was hanging around, watching her, and she grew to like him. When Jimmy was sent to raid her, he knocked at the door pretending he had a telegram to deliver. Her biographers Julia Blackburn and Donald Clark studied the only remaining interview with Jimmy Fletcher—now lost by the archives handling it—and they wrote about what he remembered in detail.

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Jun 272014
 
 June 27, 2014  Posted by at 2:54 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , ,  8 Responses »


John Vachon Times Square on a rainy day March 1943

Oh Japan, what are you doing, where are you going? As Japanese consumer prices rose 3.4% in May (and I do wish people would stop calling this inflation, it is not and never will be), consumer spending was down -8.9% (!). That is from a year earlier, so it has nothing to do with the April 1 tax hike! It’s an insane number when you think about it, and it’s the direct result of Abenomics tightening the thumb screws. With the population having seen their savings collapse, their wages move way down, and now rising prices for food and other basics. While the government and central bank are spending with unparalleled abandon, and pension funds are moving into riskier assets, away from government bonds, which have that same central bank as their only buyer left. Is it also going to purchase all the bonds the pensions funds will bring into the market? Frankly, how can it not?

As for the US, Lance Roberts at STA sums it up in just a few words:

The Great American Economic Growth Myth

… the economic prosperity of the last 30 years has been a fantasy. While America, at least on the surface, was the envy of the world for its apparent success and prosperity, the underlying cancer of debt expansion and declining wages was eating away at the core. The only way to maintain the “standard of living” that American’s were told they “deserved,” was to utilize ever increasing levels of debt. The now deregulated financial institutions were only too happy to provide that “credit” as it was a financial windfall of mass proportions.

When credit creation can no longer be sustained, the process of clearing the excesses must be completed before the cycle can resume. Only then can resources be reallocated back towards more efficient uses. [..] … fiscal and monetary policies, from TARP and QE to tax cuts, only delay the clearing process. Ultimately, that delay only potentially worsens the inevitable clearing process. The clearing process is going to be very substantial. The economy currently requires $2.75 of debt to create $1 of real (inflation adjusted) economic growth. A reversion to a structurally manageable level of debt would require in excess of $35 Trillion in debt reduction.

This is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels going into the future. We will continue to observe an economy plagued by more frequent recessionary spats, more volatile equity market returns and a stagflationary environment as wages remain suppressed while costs of living rise.

The Automatic Earth has been warning you about this for years now. I said again, only recently, that Japan’s biggest mistake has been that in the mid 1990s, it refused to accept restructuring and defaults of its financial sector debt. Now it has public debt of some 400% of GDP, a level that is miles beyond out-of-proportion. The only reason Japan hasn’t collapsed in the past 20 years is that the rest of the world plunged headfirst into excessive debt as well, and could therefore – seemingly – continue to afford to buy Japanese products. Shinzo Abe’s desperate reply to the demise of that insurance policy has been to pile in more debt, not to restructure the already humongous existing pile.

Neither are America or Europe doing it, their policies are solely based on declaring banks too big to fail, which precludes restructuring, a fatal error, at least from the point of view of the real economy and the majority of the population who depend on it for their incomes. As Roberts says, the restructuring of debt, or ‘clearing process’, is inevitable, and because of the shortsighted measures taken by myopic ‘leaders’ interested only in short term power, the process, when it comes, will bring with it deep and bitter misery for most.

And as I also said again yesterday, they couldn’t get away with it if they didn’t play masterfully on our own short term memories and interests. Just imagine what would happen if it were the US that announced an -8.9% plunge in consumer spending. Still, that is not much different from that -2.96% drop in US Q1 GDP. What is different is that the latter lies well in the rearview mirror, where objects always appear to be smaller, and our attention is without fail focused on today and tomorrow, not yesterday.

All it takes to divert attention away from Q1 GDP is rosy predictions for Q2 (we see nothing else, though ‘experts’ have hastily started backtracking). Predictions which can and will then subsequently be lowered time and again just like the last one. It’s a stupid ploy to fall for, but then we’re not all that bright to begin with at all. What will Q2 GDP be like? Tyler Durden has the perfect graph to show you:

Please Help Us Find The Q2 “Spending Surge”

US services (and thus services spending) account for 68% of US GDP and 4 out of 5 US jobs. Thus, without spending on services the US economy can barely grow. That much is clear. What is also clear is that pundit after pundit has been lining up to explain how the Q1 economic collapse is to be ignored because it was due to, don’t laugh, snow. Snow, which somehow wiped out of $100 billion in growth from initial expectations of Q1 GDP rising by 2.5%. [..] What is certainly clear is that without spending on services in the second quarter, it is impossible for US GDP to hit its much desired 4% “bounceback” GDP print. All of that is very clear. What is not at all clear is just where is this services spending spree.

Durden also dug up a video from April 2014 posted at Renegade Economist, which features longtime and dear friend of The Automatic Earth, Steve Keen, who we must congratulate on his recent appointment as professor and Head of the School of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University in London. Which means at least one university will teach something resembling sound economics.

In the video, which is an absolute must see and can’t miss, Steve explains exactly what is wrong with the US – and global – economy , as well as why and how this must be resolved the way it will be. It is not rocket science, it’s terribly simple really, we just have to deal with the constant stream of haze, befuddlement and discombobulation unleashed upon us by those who either have an active interest in keeping us locked up in a constant state of confusion, or are just not that sharp. That’s why the voice over in the video says “There are no black swans, there are just people who ignore the lessons of history”. And 2008 was just the beginning.

“In economics, [the mainstream] rely on experts who don’t know what they are talking about,” explains Professor Steve Keen in this brief but compelling documentary discussing ‘when the herd turns’. “Herd behavior is a fundamental aspect of capitalism,” Keen chides, but it is left out of conventional economic theory “because they don’t believe it;” instead having faith that investors are all “rational individuals”, which he notes, means “[economists] can’t foresee any crisis in the future.” The reality is – “we do have herd behavior” and people will follow the herd off a cliff unless they are aware it’s going to happen. “Contrary to herd wisdom, financial crises are not unpredictable black swans…”

To sum it up: it’s inevitable that there will be no economic recovery, and it’s equally inevitable that the economy must crash. If you move with the herd, you will be crushed.

The Great American Economic Growth Myth (STA)

The decline in economic growth over the past 30 years has kept the average American struggling to maintain their standard of living. As their wages declined, they were forced to turn to credit to fill the gap in maintaining their current standard of living. This demand for credit became the new breeding ground for the financed based economy. Easier credit terms, lower interest rates, easier lending standards and less regulation fueled the continued consumption boom. By the end of 2007, the household debt outstanding had surged to 140% of GDP. It was only a function of time until the collapse in the “house built of credit cards” occurred.

This is why the economic prosperity of the last 30 years has been a fantasy. While America, at least on the surface, was the envy of the world for its apparent success and prosperity; the underlying cancer of debt expansion and declining wages was eating away at the core. The only way to maintain the “standard of living” that American’s were told they “deserved,” was to utilize ever increasing levels of debt. The now deregulated financial institutions were only too happy to provide that “credit” as it was a financial windfall of mass proportions.

The massive indulgence in debt, what the Austrians refer to as a “credit induced boom,” has likely reached its inevitable conclusion. The unsustainable credit-sourced boom, which led to artificially stimulated borrowing, has continued to seek out ever diminishing investment opportunities. Ultimately these diminished investment opportunities repeatedly lead to widespread mal-investments. Not surprisingly, we clearly saw it play out “real-time” in everything from subprime mortgages to derivative instruments which were only for the purpose of milking the system of every potential penny regardless of the apparent underlying risk. We see it playing out again in the “chase for yield” in everything from junk bonds to equities. Not surprisingly, the end result will not be any different.

When credit creation can no longer be sustained, the process of clearing the excesses must be completed before the cycle can resume. Only then, and it must be allowed to happen, can resources be reallocated back towards more efficient uses. This is why all the efforts of Keynesian policies to stimulate growth in the economy have ultimately failed. Those fiscal and monetary policies, from TARP and QE to tax cuts, only delay the clearing process. Ultimately, that delay only potentially worsens the inevitable clearing process. The clearing process is going to be very substantial. The economy currently requires $2.75 of debt to create $1 of real (inflation adjusted) economic growth. A reversion to a structurally manageable level of debt* would require in excess of $35 Trillion in debt reduction. The economic drag from such a reduction would be dramatic while the clearing process occurs.

*Structural Debt Level – Estimated trend of debt growth in a normalized economic environment which would be supportive of economic growth levels of 150% of debt-to-GDP.

This is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels going into the future. We will continue to observe an economy plagued by more frequent recessionary spats, more volatile equity market returns and a stagflationary environment as wages remain suppressed while costs of living rise. Ultimately, it is the process of clearing the excess debt levels that will allow personal savings rates to return to levels that can promote productive investment, production and consumption. The end game of three decades of excess is upon us, and we can’t deny the weight of the debt imbalances that are currently in play. The medicine that the current administration is prescribing is a treatment for the common cold; in this case a normal business cycle recession. The problem is that the patient is suffering from a “debt cancer,” and until the proper treatment is prescribed and implemented; the patient will most likely continue to suffer.

Read more …

Please Help Us Find The Q2 “Spending Surge” (Zero Hedge)

US services (and thus services spending) account for 68% of US GDP and 4 out of 5 US jobs. Thus, without spending on services the US economy can barely grow. That much is clear. What is also clear is that pundit after pundit has been lining up to explain how the Q1 economic collapse is to be ignored because it was due to, don’t laugh, snow. Snow, which somehow wiped out of $100 billion in growth from initial expectations of Q1 GDP rising by 2.5%.

What is certainly clear is that without spending on services in the second quarter, it is impossible for US GDP to hit its much desired 4% “bounceback” GDP print. All of that is very clear. What is not at all clear is just where is this services spending spree. The chart below shows the monthly change in service spending as just reported by the BEA. The two bars comprising two-third of the second quarter are highlighted. So – can someone please help us find just where is this much-hyped consumer spending spreed is please?

Read more …

Longtime friend of The Automatic Earth, Steve Keen, features in this brilliant and absolutely must see April 2014 video from Renegade Economist, h/t Zero Hedge.

When The Herd Turns (Steve Keen)

“In economics, [the mainstream] rely on experts who don’t know what they are talking about,” explains Professor Steve Keen in this brief but compelling documentary discussing ‘when the herd turns’. “Herd behavior is a fundamental aspect of capitalism,” Keen chides, but it is left out of conventional economic theory “because they don’t believe it;” instead having faith that investors are all “rational individuals”, which he notes, means “[economists] can’t foresee any crisis in the future.” The reality is – “we do have herd behavior” and people will follow the herd off a cliff unless they are aware its going to happen. “Contrary to herd wisdom, financial crises are not unpredictable black swans…”

Read more …

This Has Never Happened Without The US Falling Into Recession (Zero Hedge)

With all eyes firmly focused on yesterday’s disastrous GDP report (and ultimately dismissing it as ‘weather’ and one-off exogenous factors), we thought Bloomberg Brief’s Rich Yamarone’s analysis of a lesser-known (yet just as key) indicator of the state of US economic health was intriguing. As he notes, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic analysis, there has never been a time in history that year-over-year gross domestic income has been at its current pace (2.6%) without the U.S. economy ultimately falling into recession. That’s more than 50 years of history, which is about as good as one could ever hope for in an economic indicator.

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Spending down -8% YoY, so not because of the April 1 tax hike. Abenomics is squeezing the Japanese.

Japan Consumer Prices Soar 3.4%, Spending Plummets -8% (CNBC)

Japan’s core consumer prices rose 3.4% in May from a year earlier, data on Friday showed, rising at their fastest pace since April 1982. The rise in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food prices, was in line with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3.4% rise. Annual consumer prices in Japan have risen for 12 straight months – a positive sign for the Bank of Japan and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to finally rid the world’s third biggest economy of deflation risks. “The inflation numbers have been driven by a rise in fresh food prices and utility prices,” said Glenn Levine, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. A slew of economic data released at the same time showed Japan’s household spending fell 8% in May from a year earlier, compared with forecasts for a 2% decline.

Japan lifted its consumption tax to 8% from 5% in April – and with consumers front-loading their spending before the tax increase, consumption has fallen since then. Other data showed Japan’s retail sales fell 0.4% in May on-year, smaller than the 1.8% fall anticipated by economists polled by Reuters. Japan’s jobless rate meanwhile fell to its lowest level in over a decade and a measure of labor demand rose to its highest in two decades. “The data, on aggregate, should be please the Bank of Japan and government,” said Levine. “The jobs data was strong and the retail sales numbers were better than expected,” he said, adding that the retail sales number gives a broader picture of Japanese consumer spending trends than the household consumption data.

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This is going to end so bad.

Japan Pension Fund ‘Not Ready To Move Into Riskier Assets’ (Bloomberg)

The world’s biggest pension fund is planning to buy more risky assets before it has the structure to cope with the investment overhaul, an economist specializing in state retirement programs said. The 128.6 trillion yen ($1.3 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund needs rules for cutting losses when asset prices fall, according to Yuri Okina. GPIF must also get agreement for a clearer mechanism for safeguarding the fund when its finances deteriorate. Governance changes should be completed before the portfolio overhaul, said Okina, who’s also an adviser to the finance ministry and a director of Bridgestone Corp. The bond-heavy fund is expected to boost local stocks to about 20% of assets in coming months after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ordered a faster review of its portfolio and included the overhaul in the nation’s growth strategies. Planned reform of its governance structure, including adding a board of directors, is taking longer after a bill to change it wasn’t submitted in the most recent Diet session.

“There’s a lot of focus on how GPIF can revitalize the stock market and that has been coming first,” Okina, an economist at Japan Research Institute Ltd., said in an interview in Tokyo on June 23. “The fund needs to decide on things like organizational structure and what its goals are at the same time.” “Given that Japan is exiting deflation, I do think GPIF needs to diversify its assets,” Okina said. “But it needs to be clearer on how it’ll do this. It needs more distance from the government and to be clear it’s for the benefit of pension savers and retirees.” Before taking on more risk, GPIF must set rules for when to cut its losses, Okina said. It must also reach a verdict with the health ministry on what to do when investment losses threaten the fund’s sustainability, she said, giving the example of whether it should cover shortfalls by asking for bigger contributions from workers or lowering payouts to retirees.

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We want our bubbles back!

US Treasury Begins Push to Revive Mortgage-Bond Market (Bloomberg)

The Treasury Department will start an initiative to revive the market for mortgage securities without government backing as part of an effort to aid recovery of the housing market, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said. The Treasury also will begin offering financing for loans for affordable apartment buildings and extend aid programs for troubled borrowers for an additional year, Lew said remarks prepared for a speech in Washington today. Together the moves are designed to bring more capital to the housing market to ease the crunch for those most affected by tight credit and a dwindling supply of affordable rentals, while aiding those still struggling with the aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis.

“Middle class families continue to find it difficult to find affordable housing,” Lew said. “And more than 6 million Americans still owe more on their homes than their homes are worth. That is why we remain focused on providing relief to responsible homeowners, rebuilding hard-hit communities, and reforming our housing finance system.” Homeowners having trouble making their loan payments will now have until December 31, 2016 to apply for a mortgage modification under Treasury’s Home Affordable Modification Program and other Treasury-run aid programs. The affordable apartment building loans would be backed by Federal Housing Administration and state housing agencies.

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Will we see all dark pools broken up?

Cracks Open in Dark Pool Defense With Barclays Lawsuit (Bloomberg)

Last October, managers told an employee in Barclays’ trading unit to keep from clients a report showing the bank routed most of their dark pool orders to itself, according to the New York attorney general. He refused, Eric Schneiderman said, and was fired the next day. The state’s top law-enforcement official released the account, which he said he got from the former Barclays senior director, in a 30-page document that portrayed the London-based bank as bilking its own customers to expand its dark pool. Schneiderman cited a pattern of “fraud and deceit” starting in 2011 in which Barclays hoarded orders for stocks and assured investors they were protected from high-frequency firms while simultaneously aiding predatory tactics.

“The behavior described in this complaint would put a bank’s financial interest in marketing its dark pool and profiting by providing access to predatory high-speed traders ahead of the interests of investors,” Senator Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat who leads the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, said in a statement. “Action is needed to end conflicts of interest in the U.S. stock market.” [..]

Scrutiny from law-enforcement authorities is increasing as concern grows that America’s fragmented and computerized market structure enriches professional traders at the expense of individuals. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Jo White proposed changes to the market this month, and the regulator this week announced it wants to test a curb on dark pool trading. Last week, Levin’s panel held hearings focused on where brokers send their customers’ orders. Schneiderman’s case is the boldest initiative and may open fissures in the decade-old defense of U.S. equity markets that has been championed by brokerages and traders. In their version of the story, dark pools serve as havens for institutional investors tired of seeing orders to buy and sell stocks front-run on public exchanges. According to Schneiderman, institutions may not have been much safer on Barclays’ platform.

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Building dominoes.

Shanghai Developer Halts Project on Funding Shortage (Bloomberg)

A closely held Shanghai developer has suspended construction at a property project due to a lack of funds, according to two government officials familiar with the matter. Construction at Shanghai Yuehe Real Estate’s mixed-use project, including residential, office and retail space, in the city was halted this month and the project was frozen by a court, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly about the matter. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, a medium-sized Chinese bank, loaned about 240 million yuan ($39 million) to the 220,000 square meter (2.4 million square foot) development in suburban Jiading district, they said.

“There will be more developers having troubles as the property downturn prolongs,” said Duan Feiqin, a Shenzhen-based property analyst at China Merchants Securities Co., in a phone interview today. “Many Chinese cities face oversupply of those mixed-use property projects amid the e-commerce boom, while a lot of developers, especially those small ones, are not capable of doing such developments.” Yuehe is the latest example of Chinese developers facing pressure as the nation’s slowing property market weighs on the growth of the world’s second-largest economy. Moody’s Investors Service in May revised its credit outlook for Chinese developers to negative from stable, citing a slowdown in home- sales growth as liquidity weakens and inventories rise.

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Juicy.

China’s Manhattan Project Turns Into Ghost Town (Bloomberg)

China’s project to build a replica Manhattan is taking shape against a backdrop of vacant office towers and unfinished hotels, underscoring the risks to a slowing economy from the nation’s unprecedented investment boom. The skyscraper-filled skyline of the Conch Bay district in the northern port city of Tianjin has none of a metropolis’s bustle up close, with dirt-covered glass doors and construction on some edifices halted. The area’s failure to attract tenants since the first building was finished in 2010 bodes ill across the Hai River for the separate Yujiapu development, which is modeled on New York’s Manhattan and remains in progress. “Investing here won’t be better than throwing money into the water,” Zhang Zhihe, 60, said during a visit to the area last week from neighboring Hebei province to look at potential commercial-property investments. “There will be no way out – it will be very difficult to find the next buyer.”

The deserted area underscores the challenge facing China’s leaders in dealing with the fallout from a record credit-fueled investment spree while sustaining growth and jobs in the world’s second-biggest economy. A Tianjin local-government financing vehicle connected to the developments said revenue fell 68% in 2013 to an amount that’s less than one-third of debt due this year. “There will have to be a reckoning,” said Stephen Green, head of Greater China research at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. Sales of bonds by local-government vehicles to repay bank loans are just “buying time,” he said. “The people will pay” for it through bank bailouts, recapitalization with public money or inflation.

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Hey, they just print it all anyway, and so does everyone else, so why not?

China Expands Plans For World Bank Rival (FT)

China is expanding plans to establish a global financial institution to rival the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, which Beijing fears are too influenced by the US and its allies. In meetings with other countries, Beijing has proposed doubling the size of registered capital for the proposed bank to $100bn, according to two people familiar with the matter. So far, 22 countries across the region, including several wealthy states in the Middle East, which China refers to as “West Asia”, have shown interest in the multilateral lender, which would be known as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. It would initially focus on building a new version of the “silk road”, the ancient trade route that once connected Europe to China. Most of the funding for the lender would come from China and be spent on infrastructure projects across the region, including a direct rail link from Beijing to Baghdad.

China’s push for a regional institution that it would control reflects Beijing’s frustration at western dominance of the multilateral bodies. Chinese leaders have demanded a greater say in institutions such as the World Bank, IMF and Asian Development Bank for years but changes to reflect China’s increasing economic importance and power have been painfully slow. “China feels it can’t get anything done in the World Bank or the IMF so it wants to set up its own World Bank that it can control itself,” said one person directly involved in discussions to establish the AIIB. “There is a lot of interest from across Asia but China is going to go ahead with this even if nobody else joins it.” [..] China has discussed its plans for an AIIB with countries in southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Australia and it has also contacted the US, India and arch-enemy Japan, according to people familiar with the matter. But these people also said the bank was specifically intended to exclude the US and its allies, or at least greatly reduce their influence.

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Qingdao goes on.

Risks Rising For China’s Commodity Traders (Reuters)

A warehouse fraud at China’s third-largest port has forced banks and trading houses to consider new controls in the country’s massive commodity financing business, which traders say could lead to drying up of credit for all but large firms and state-owned companies. On Thursday, Standard Chartered, a major foreign provider of such finance deals, become one of the first firms to put a dollar figure on its activities, saying its commodity-related exposure around the port was about $250 million, although not all of that was at risk. “That is across multiple clients, multiple locations, multiple types of facilities, not all of which will be affected,” CEO Peter Sands said on a conference call. China’s commodities trading is dominated by the large and state-owned companies but there are thousands of small firms in the market. Faced with tougher bank requirements for financing, they could sell down stockpiles, squeezing demand for metals and other raw materials such as rubber in the world’s biggest consumer of commodities.

Any new requirements would also ratchet up the risk that customers who do not regain credit lines may default on payments for services such as hedging, or for imports. “The fear is not so much about the big boys, but some of the other smaller, newer players, who may have only been in this commodity financing game for the last two to three years,” said Jeremy Goldwyn, a director with commodities broker Sucden in charge of Asia business. “If all of a sudden the tap is turned off to them, they might have more of a crisis. Is it having an effect on the market? Yes, people are very nervous. We obviously have a lot of business in China so we are watching it very closely,” he said. According to sources, Standard Chartered has suspended some commodity financing deals in Qingdao port after authorities there launched a probe into a private trading firm, Decheng Mining, that is suspected of duplicating warehouse certificates to use a metal cargo multiple times to raise financing.

A Standard Chartered spokesman in London said the bank was reviewing its exposure to commodity financing but was not “pulling back” from that type of business, or from China itself, which remains a “key market”. For Western banks such as Standard Chartered, HSBC and BNP Paribas, which are restricted in the domestic loan market in China, the metals financing business is a lucrative alternative but the Qingdao scandal has renewed focus on counterparty risk. Goldman Sachs estimates that commodity-backed deals account for as much as $160 billion, or about 30% of China’s short-term foreign-exchange borrowing. Besides metals, the banks are now taking a fresh look at loans backed by other commodities such as iron ore, soybeans and rubber, fueling concerns that any drying up of credit could spark a series of defaults on trade loans, or force other cash-strapped firms to cancel term shipments in the second half of this year.

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China’s water problems will rise to the fore in a very rapid fashion.

Water Shortages Threaten China’s Agriculture (BW)

China has a fifth of the globe’s population but only 7% of its available freshwater reserves. Moreover, its water resources are not evenly distributed. The lands north of the Yangtze River—including swaths of the Gobi desert and the grasslands of Inner Mongolia—are the driest, but more than half of China’s people live in the north. Water is not well managed in China. Nearly two-thirds of water withdrawals in China are for agriculture. Due to the use of uncovered irrigation channels (leading to evaporation) and other outdated techniques, a significant portion of that water never reaches the field.

A new paper by scientists in China, Japan, and the U.S. published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sounds the alarm: “China faces … major challenges to sustainable agriculture,” the authors write. Failure to conserve water resources could threaten China’s food security, a longtime priority for the country’s leaders. When it comes to fresh water, geography did not bless China. “Agriculture is located mainly in the dry north, where irrigation largely relies on groundwater reserves,” the authors write. Meanwhile, due to unsustainable withdrawals, China’s aquifers are fast being depleted. The paper analyzes water usage for four key crops (rice, wheat, soybeans, and corn) and livestock (poultry, pigs, and cows) in China. Taken together, those make up more than 90% of China’s domestic food supply.

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The obvious elephant.

The Coming Global Generational Adjustment (CH Smith)

Here’s what often happens when people start discussing Baby Boomers, Gen-X and Gen-Y online: rash generalizations are freely flung, everyone gets offended and nothing remotely productive results from the generational melee. These sorts of angry, accusatory generalizations reflect what I call the Generational Monster Id (GMI), the urge to list faults in generations other than our own. I think the source of generational angst and anger is the threat that the entitlements promised by the developed-world governments will not be delivered as promised. These entitlements range from healthcare to education to old-age pensions to “a good paying job now that I have a college degree.” The bottom line is that the promises cannot and will not be kept. The promises were issued in an era of cheap, abundant fossil fuels and favorable demographics: the next generation was considerably larger and more productive (due to more education, longer working lives, etc.) than the previous generation it would support through old age with taxes.

In that bygone era, there were as many as 16 workers for every retiree. Even 4 workers for every retiree is a sustainable level if energy remains cheap and full-time jobs remain plentiful. But the global reality is the Baby Boom generation is so large that it dwarfs the younger generations. Regardless of any other conditions, this reality negates all the promises issued to retirees: as the ratio of workers paying substantial taxes on their full-time earnings to retirees slips below two workers to one retiree, there is no way the workers can support the lavish costs of healthcare and old age pensions without becoming impoverished themselves. This is already a reality. As I have noted in this week’s series, there are 118 million full-time jobs in the U.S. and 57 million people drawing benefits from Social Security, and a similar number drawing Medicare and Medicaid benefits. As Boomers retire en masse in the decade ahead and full-time employment stagnates or declines, the ratio will slip to 1.5-to-1 or even lower. Many low-birth-rate European nations are facing worker-retiree ratios of 1-to-1. This is simply not sustainable.

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How ugly can this get? Vulture funds buy debt at 30%, and demand back 100%. The amounts involved are so huge they don’t mind waiting 10 years and paying millions in lawyer’s fees. And Argentine debt issues are decided in a US court. What kind of sovereignty is that?

Argentina Economy Minister Says Nation Being Pushed To Default (Reuters)

Argentina’s Economy Minister Axel Kicillof warned United Nations diplomats on Wednesday the country is being pushed toward a new default after a U.S. Supreme Court decision favored holdout creditors seeking payment on bonds it defaulted on in 2001-2002. Referring to those creditors as “vulture funds,” Kicillof said the June 16 decision by the top U.S. court to deny Argentina the chance to appeal a lower court ruling means it faces an insurmountable payment to all bondholders, given it has just $28.5 billion in foreign currency reserves. “So probably this is going to push us into a technical default,” Kicillof said through an interpreter. “Whichever way you look at it this ruling is forcing Argentina towards the risk of economic crisis.” The holdouts are led by Elliott Management’s NML Capital and Aurelius Capital Management. “Once these funds get recognition of 100% of the value of their bonds, which were purchased under vile conditions of having paid only 30 cents on the dollar, there could be more demand from other holders who did not participate in the restructurings,” Kicillof said. [..]

Argentine officials, including President Cristina Fernandez, have said the country will not pay these investors, arguing it could face potential demands for up to $15 billion from other holdouts not involved with the case – an amount representing more than half of the government’s $28.5 billion in foreign currency reserves. The United Nations trade agency, or UNCTAD, weighed in on the case on Wednesday, echoing concerns voiced by the United States as well as the International Monetary Fund that the ruling in favor of holdouts erodes sovereign immunity and is a setback for the debt restructuring process. However, investors and legal advisors alike note changes to the covenants in bond contracts have adapted to avoid such disputes and the legal battle with Argentina is so unique that chances for a repeat situation have been dramatically reduced.

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‘EU Trade Deal Is Economic Suicide For Ukraine’ (RT)

“For Ukraine, signing the agreement is economic suicide,” Sergey Glazyev, an economic aide to Russian President Putin said, warning of a sharp currency devaluation, soaring inflation, and lower living standards. Kiev’s new government [signed] a free trade agreement with the EU on Friday, after the previous government failed to sign the agreement in November leading to public protest and near all-out civil war. “There is no doubt that by signing this agreement it will result in an acute devaluation of the hryvnia, an inflation surge and in turn hyperinflation, and a drop in living standards,” Glazyev said on Tuesday. Glazyev, an outspoken opponent of Ukraine joining the EU’s orbit, echoed President Putin’s warning that Ukraine will no longer be able to import goods from Russia duty-free. Glazyev calculated last year, before the dispute with Russia began, that flooding Ukraine’s economy with European goods could cost the country $4 billion, or 2% of its GDP.

Ukraine signed the political portion of the treaty in March, but the economic content is much more significant as it sets a path for Ukraine to open itself to Europe’s $17 trillion market. Ukraine’s exports to Russia totaled over $16 billion last year, nearly a quarter of all goods, and exports to Europe were just over $17 billion, according to EU trade data. Russian Finance Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev also sees little value in the trade deal, as it will turn Ukraine into a “second-rate EU state”, but without any of the benefits. “By signing the Association Agreement the countries must restructure their laws to comply with European standards and open the markets. However, in return, they don’t receive any influence on European legislation or policy,” Ulyukaev said. He was referring to the cost of adopting 350 new laws and 200,000 pieces of legislation to ready the country for trade with Europe.

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The Anglo Saxon destruction machine is on a roll.

Australia’s Prime Minister Proposes Destroying Environment for Votes (Vice)

Since being elected to power last September, Australia’s conservative Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his Liberal-National coalition government have been attempting to scale back or altogether dispose of initiatives and policies important to environmentalists, while proposing initiatives that they hate. Abbott’s administration has axed the independently-run Climate Commission and legislation that would repeal Australia’s carbon tax, and has cut funding to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. It also approved the expansion of a coal port that would allow some 3 million cubic meters of soil to be dredged and dumped near the Great Barrier Reef, which is already frighteningly imperiled. Another of Abbott’s provocations concerned the protective boundaries of a World Heritage forest area in Tasmania. Last year, Australia’s previous and more progressive Labor government successfully proposed that the area’s boundaries be extended.

The current government wanted to reduce that extension by 43% — more than 180,000 acres — and open it up for logging. It argued that “these areas detract from the Outstanding Universal Value of the property” because they “contain plantations and logged and degraded areas.” This week, at a meeting of UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee in Qatar, the proposal was quickly and unanimously rejected. Early talk from the government and media suggested that the proposal stood a chance. It is clear, watching the committee discuss the proposal, that there was no way it would pass. There was no debate, and the seven minutes spent on the proposal was so short, there’s no link to it on the relevant UNESCO website. The delisting of land from World Heritage status for the sake of logging would have been a dangerous precedent. The committee in Qatar apparently agreed.

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Canada Is Drastically Cutting Environmental Research (Vice)

It’s no secret Canada faces tough environmental challenges in the next few decades. While the bitumen flowing from the Alberta tar sands produces revenues accounting for over 2% of our GDP in oil and other petrol-goodies—relying on extraction methods that provoke scientific concern and visceral horror, means increased emissions and brutal toxic pollution. These sort of problems tend to get taken to scientists with the questions “how bad is it?” and “what do we do?” attached. But Environment Canada claims to have Canadians covered, noting in their 2014-2015 Report on Plans and Priorities that they will “reduce threats to health and the environment posed by pollution and waste from human activities,” and “develop regulations in support of the sector-by-sector approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.” All of which sounds very reassuring until you notice the same report projects an overall funding decrease for the department of 37% over the next two years.

First let’s cover the good news: If you’re a fan of migratory birds, no stress, the money to continue preservation efforts is safe. Other projects aren’t so lucky. Funding for the Ecosystems Initiatives will fall from $53 to $26 million, Substance and Waste Management from $76 to $44 million, and the Climate Change and Clean Air budget will be reduced from $155 to $55 million—a staggering 64% lower than current funding levels. The report stresses that much of the planned funding reduction is due to “sun-setting,” referring to the expiry of temporarily funded programs, and that some programs may be extended, or replaced, which can’t be reflected in the projections. In a May 29 meeting of the Parliamentary Environment Committee, Liberal MP John McKay asked about the decrease in funding for the Clean Air and Climate Change Department. Minister of the Environment Leona Aglukkaq had a similarly noncommittal answer to those found in her report: “Decisions on the renewal of programs are yet to be made. We can’t anticipate what the next budget will be,” she said.

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Oh man, we’re so green!

Germany’s New Coal Plants Push Power Glut to 4-Year High (Bloomberg)

Germany is headed for its biggest electricity glut since 2011 as new coal-fired plants start and generation of wind and solar energy increases, weighing on power prices that have already dropped for three years. Utilities from RWE AG to EON SE are poised to bring units online from December that can supply 8.2 million homes, 20% of the nation’s total, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That will increase spare capacity in Europe’s biggest power market to 17% of peak demand, say the four companies that operate the nation’s high-voltage grids. The benchmark German electricity contract has slumped 36% since the end of 2010.

The new coal plants are starting as Germany aims to almost double renewable-power generation over the next decade. Wind and solar output has priority grid access by law and floods the market on sunny and breezy days, curbing running hours for nuclear, coal and gas plants, and pushing power prices lower. The profit margin for eight utilities in Germany narrowed to 5.4% last year from 15% a decade ago. “The new plants will run at current prices, but they won’t cover their costs,” Ricardo Klimaschka, a power trader at Energieunion GmbH who has bought and sold electricity for 14 years, said June 25 by e-mail from Schwerin, Germany. “The utilities will make much less money than originally thought with their new units because they counted on higher power prices.”

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I’d say it’s all of the above.

It’s Not Pesticides Hurting Moth Pollinators, It’s Car Fumes (Science 2.0)

Due to the president making bee colonies a national priority, there is a lot of talk from environmentalists about banning neonicotinoid pesticides but they may be blaming out of convenience rather than evidence. Car and truck exhaust fumes can be bad for humans and for pollinators too. In new research on how pollinators find flowers when background odors are strong, University of Washington and University of Arizona researchers have found that both natural plant odors and human sources of pollution can conceal the scent of sought-after flowers. When the calories from one feeding of a flower gets you only 15 minutes of flight, as is the case with the tobacco hornworn moth studied, being misled costs a pollinator energy and time.

“Local vegetation can mask the scent of flowers because the background scents activate the same moth olfactory channels as floral scents,” according to Jeffrey Riffell, UW assistant professor of biology. “Plus the chemicals in these scents are similar to those emitted from exhaust engines and we found that pollutant concentrations equivalent to urban environments can decrease the ability of pollinators to find flowers.” “Nature can be complex, but an urban environment is a whole other layer on top of that,” said Riffell. “These moths are not important pollinators in urban environments, but these same volatiles from vehicles may affect pollinators like honeybees or bumblebees, which are more prevalent in many urban areas.”

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