Aug 212016
 


Dorothea Lange Home of rural rehabilitation client, Tulare County, CA 1938

 

Our by now regular contributor Dr. Nelson Lebo III, the New Englander ‘lost’ in New Zealand, sent me another article, and it’s great (well, in my view). His title for the article may put some people on the wrong foot, but I think that’s alright.

I’ve been to New Zealand a few times, and Nicole of course has even moved there, so I was aware of how poorly constructed many homes are -and often made of wood-, but I’d never heard of ‘curtain banks’. Still, they exist all over the country. Turns out, lots of New Zealand homes are so damp and moldy that curtains can literally save lives, and certainly make them more comfortable/bearable. But many people are too poor to be able to afford curtains. Hence the curtain banks. I’d be curious to know if similar initiatives exist anywhere lese on the planet. Do let me know.

Nelson’s second ‘bank’ is made of/filled with water. Agriculture, in particular the one-trick pony of the dairy industry, has caused the land to deteriorate so badly that water washes off the hillsides and the land without natural barriers like trees and shrubs left to stop and naturally regulate it. In other words, there is no ‘water bank’ or ‘stream bank’ left. I really like Nelson’s comparing this velocity of water to the velocity of money in a financial system.

 

 

Dr. Nelson Lebo III: Banks…what is there to say that hasn’t already been said? If you read the Automatic Earth, if you watch Max Keiser, if you’ve followed The Crash Course, there is no comment about financial institutions I can make that would add to the critique. That’s not my gig anyway. My gig is to offer realistic, achievable, grass roots, no-excuses alternatives to the dominant neoliberal consumerist paradigm. One approach I’ve gravitated toward over the years goes by the name of permaculture.

Permaculture has been around for decades. You’ve probably heard of it but do you know what it is? Yeah, that’s the problem. My observations are that the eco design methodology known as permaculture suffers in two fundamental ways: a confusing name and dogmatic application by inexperienced converts. The name is the name – no changing it at this point – and there is no antidote for dogma. But for a general audience of readers I’d like to lay out the ethics and practice of permaculture in the clearest ways possible – by using concrete examples.

 

Example One: The Permaculture Ethics

When engaging with permaculture as a design methodology, practitioners are bound to follow a simple code of ethics: care for the environment; care for people; and, share surplus resources. I appreciate this ethical code because it helps distinguish a permaculturist from anyone else who may be involved in some aspect of the ‘sustainability movement’ such as an organic farmer, recycler, green builder, eco-entrepreneur or local currency advocate.

This is not to say that a permaculturist cannot engage in all of these (indeed they do), but that anyone who practices one or more than these is not necessarily engaging with the permaculture ethics. Think of large-scale organic farms in California that truck in “certified organic” inputs and ship out bags of lettuce thousands of miles to the East Coast. Not permaculture.

People may take a permaculture course or buy a permaculture book for various reasons, but these do not necessarily make them a practicing permaculturist. I like to make the point that the difference between a permaculturist and a survivalist is 100 cases of baked beans and a gun. If you ain’t sharing, it ain’t permaculture.

I also appreciate the ethics because they are an integral part of the design process. In other words, the ethics can be used to help shape a larger project. An example of this is the ‘curtain bank’ that we recently opened in our community.

 

 

Those unfamiliar with curtain banks can be forgiven as many developed countries around the world have decent standards for housing that include high performance windows and central heating. But most of the New Zealand housing stock has been variously described as “sub-standard”, “abysmal”, “horrid”, and “a joke.” Mind you, that’s a bad joke instead of a funny one.

The majority of homes in this country are so cold that curtains must be used as a serious way to reduce heat loss. It is not uncommon for overnight indoor temperatures to drop into the mid-single-digits Celsius and daytime indoor temperatures to barely reach double-digits. I’ve heard stories of frost on the inside of windowpanes.

To add insult to injury, we also suffer from wealth and income inequality that make the purchase of new or even second-hand curtains out of reach for many families. As a result curtain banks have popped up in cities around the nation to redistribute second-hand curtains free of charge.

 

Applied Permaculture Ethics

Sharing surplus resources : People of means replace their curtains for various reasons, but most often for aesthetic ones. If the curtains are still in good condition and free of mould, they can be dropped off at the curtain bank, which makes them available for other households. Like any bank it accepts deposits and grants withdrawals. No fees. No contracts. No interest rates.

While traditional banks have the privilege to ‘lend money into existence’ we cannot lend curtains into existence, although it would be nice. We rely on donations from good people in our community to be passed on to other good people in our community. Which brings us to the next ethic.

Caring for people : It’s no secret that there is a link between sub-standard housing and illness in New Zealand. Sadly, most of the housing in our city is cold and/or damp. These unhealthy homes are especially hard on children and seniors. Many lack adequate curtaining.

Getting properly installed curtains, insulating blinds and window blankets into as many homes as possible helps make the occupants more comfortable and healthier. This is straight up caring for people by addressing some fairly basic needs.

Care for the earth : Improving the ‘thermal envelope’ of a home is the best way to save the energy required for heating and cooling. Saving energy is generally considered good for the environment by reducing carbon emissions or reducing the number of rivers dammed or even reducing the number of solar panels that need to be manufactured.

In these ways curtain banks tick all of the boxes for the permaculture ethics.

 

Example Two: Applied Eco-Design

The other example I’ll share is a direct application of eco-design: imitating nature to develop or reestablish robust ecological systems. The latter of these is sometimes called ‘regenerative design’.

Most of New Zealand is plagued by a legacy of bad farming practices most easily described as overgrazing steep slopes and allowing stock to foul streams.

We took possession of our small farm two years ago and have been working persistently to – dare I say it – ‘heal the land.’ Currently we are in the process of reestablishing a wetland and protecting the streams from stock. Additionally, we are planting native trees and poplar poles on steep hillsides to prevent slips, reduce erosion and provide bee fodder.

We are doing all this because that’s what nature wants. In other words, that’s the way the land was 1,000 years ago (less the non-native poplars) and given enough time that’s what it would revert to after the permanent removal of large hooved mammals. Our work just speeds up the process and allows for a continued agricultural function, which we are still figuring out.

All of this work is supported by our amazing Regional Council, which offers expert advice, low-cost poplar poles, and matching funding for fencing and native plantings. I cannot speak highly enough of these programmes. Horizons Regional Council does a fantastic job of looking at the big picture and applying holistic solutions. Unlike most government bodies and agencies, they get it.

 


Lake Horowhenua Planting Day

 

Forests and wetlands play important roles in moderating seasonal water flows across large land areas. In other words they store water high on the landscape during wet periods and release it slowly during dry periods. It works like a bank by accepting deposits and granting withdrawals.

Much of the farmland in our region suffers from extreme weather on both ends – wet and dry. Neither is good for stock, nor good for farmers, nor good for water quality, nor good for anyone living downstream. It’s a lose-lose-lose-lose situation and the reasons are clear: not enough trees on hillsides and streamsides. That’s basically it.

The solution is to build resilient waterways by imitating nature. Projects like ours are the best way that landowners and supportive communities can directly address the extreme weather events associated with a volatile changing climate.

The restoration work on our farm will help – to a tiny degree – everyone who lives and works downstream and downriver from us by keeping water out of the system during peak rain events. This is critical to our community that already faces tens of millions of dollars in repair bills from the last two major rain events that occurred just 13 months apart.

Given enough farmers with enough will and enough government assistance there is no reason we could not fence off all the streams in our region and plant all the steep hillsides to appropriate species. It’s much cheaper than cleaning up over and over again after serial flood events.

 

Alternative Banking

So what this is all about is developing alternative banking systems – stream banks and curtain banks among others – and getting communities involved. This is what resilience is all about (see also Resilience is The New Black and Climate, Energy, Economy: Pick Two)

This is the heart and soul of permaculture design thinking, and it is the best way to address the two biggest issues facing humanity: wealth inequality and climate change.

When I dip my toe into the financial news media on occasion I hear this phrase: “the velocity of money” as it pertains to the “health of the economy.”

I thought of the phrase the other day while meeting with a client on managing storm water on their large rural property after they had already done everything wrong. Yes, they had done absolutely everything wrong and I was trying to get them to understand that channelizing water only makes it go faster and cause more damage. The damage was obvious after the last major rain event – that’s why they called me in for an assessment.

As I explained the biological – rather than engineering – solutions, I felt we were going around in circles because they did not really want to hear what I had to say. They just wanted to be rid of the water. Sorry, but that’s not an option without over half a million dollars to spend on massive underground drains, which don’t solve the problem but simply pass it on to everyone downstream. And besides, they don’t have the money anyway.

Finally, I simply said, “The only possible solution is to slow the water and spread the water. It’s the only way to stop the damage.”

And that has me thinking. Should we apply the same approach to dollars?

I reckon a critical piece of the puzzle for neglected rural economies like ours is to slow and spread the flow of money as much as possible before it inevitably drains back to the major centres of power and wealth.

 

 

Dorothea Lange wrote about the photograph at the top, back in November 1938:

“Home of rural rehabilitation client, Tulare County, California. They bought 20 acres of raw unimproved land with a first payment of 50 dollars which was money saved out of relief budget (August 1936). They received a Farm Security Administration loan of $700 for stock and equipment. Now they have a one-room shack, seven cows, three sows, and homemade pumping plant, along with 10 acres of improved permanent pasture. Cream check approximately 30 dollars per month. Husband also works about ten days a month outside the farm. Husband is 26 years old, wife 22, three small children. Been in California five years. ‘Piece by piece this place gets put together. One more piece of pipe and our water tank will be finished’. From Shorpy.

 

 

Jul 212016
 


DPC City Hall and Market Street and west from 11th, Philadelphia 1912

S&P Issues ‘Crexit’ Warning as Corporate Debt to Swell to $75 Trillion (CNBC)
The Entire Market is Driven by a “Once in History” Bubble About to Burst (P.)
Bank Of England Report Finds Economy Has Not Slowed Since Brexit Vote (G.)
US Links Malaysia PM, Wolf of Wall Street to Millions Stolen From 1MBD (WSJ)
Singapore Finds UBS, DBS, StanChart ‘Failings’ in 1MDB Probe (BBG)
Erdogan Declares State Of Emergency, Warns S&P ‘Don’t Mess With Turkey’ (ZH)
Wikileaks, About To Expose Turkish ‘Coup’, Under ‘Sustained Attack’ (TAM)
Reports Of Turkish Commandos In Greek Aegean Put Athens On Alert (Kath.)
A Turkey of a Coup (Dmitry Orlov)
More Pain Seen For US Crude As Product Glut Adds To Gloom (R.)
New Zealand House Bubble Warning Will ‘Shake Government’ (NZH)
Greek Brain Drain Amounted To 223,000 People In 2008-2013 (Kath.)
Warmer Water, Not Air, Drives Antarctic Peninsula Glacier Melt (CB)

 

 

Too late to take away the punch bowl. It’s set to end up on the floor in a thousand pieces when someone knocks it over.

S&P Issues ‘Crexit’ Warning as Corporate Debt to Swell to $75 Trillion (CNBC)

Corporate debt is projected to swell over the next several years, thanks to cheap money from global central banks, according to a report Wednesday that warns of a potential crisis from all that new, borrowed cash floating around. By 2020, business debt likely will climb to $75 trillion from its current $51 trillion level, according to S&P Global Ratings. Under normal conditions, that wouldn’t be a major problem so long as credit quality stays high, interest rates and inflation remain low, and there are economic growth persists. However, the alternative is less pleasant should those conditions not persist. Should interest rates rise and economic conditions worsen, corporate America could be facing a major problem as it seeks to manage that debt.

Rolling over bonds would become more difficult should inflation gain and rates raise, while a slowing economy would worsen business conditions and make paying off the debt more difficult. In that case, a “Crexit,” or withdrawal by lenders from the credit markets, could occur and lead to a sudden tightening of conditions that could trigger another financial scare. “A worst-case scenario would be a series of major negative surprises sparking a crisis of confidence around the globe,” S&P said in the report. “These unforeseen events could quickly destabilize the market, pushing investors and lenders to exit riskier positions (‘Crexit’ scenario). If mishandled, this could result in credit growth collapsing as it did during the global financial crisis.” In fact, S&P considers a correction in the credit markets to be “inevitable.” The only question is degree.

[..] “Central banks remain in thrall to the idea that credit-fueled growth is healthy for the global economy,” S&P said. “In fact, our research highlights that monetary policy easing has thus far contributed to increased financial risk, with the growth of corporate borrowing far outpacing that of the global economy.” Between now and 2020, debt “flow” is expected to grow by $62 trillion – $38 trillion in refinancing and $24 trillion in new debt, including bonds, loans and other forms. That projection is up from the $57 trillion in new flow S&P had expected for the same period a year ago. [..] China is expected to account for the bulk of the credit flow growth, with the nation projected to add $28 trillion or 45% of the $62 trillion expected global demand increase. The U.S. is estimated to add $14 trillion or 22%, with Europe adding $9 trillion, or 15%.

Read more …

“Buying stocks for their yield because bonds are at their lowest yields in 5000 years is like switching to cigarettes from crack for health purposes.”

The Entire Market is Driven by a “Once in History” Bubble About to Burst (P.)

Since QE 3 ended in October 2014, stocks have traded in a large range between roughly 2,130 and 1800 on the S&P 500.

During this time, whenever stocks began to breakdown in a serious way, a clear intervention was staged in which someone manipulated the markets higher. Regardless of whether you are a bull or a bear, none of those rallies felt normal or sane in any way. No one panic buys every single day at the exact same time for days on end. Which brings us to today. Stocks have broken out of the trading range to the upside hitting new all-time highs.

They are doing this despite the US entering a recession, China continuing to devalue the Yuan, Italy facing a banking crisis, etc. The explanation the bulls are giving for the breakout is that stocks supposedly hitting all time highs because with $13 trillion in bonds posting negative yields, stocks’ 2.4% or so in dividends are extremely attractive from a yield perspective. Yes, we’ve reached the point at which investors are buying stocks for yield and bonds for capital gains. This is extremely problematic in that it implies that all equity purchases are being driven by a “once in history” bond bubble.• German bond yields are negative out to nearly 10 years. • Japanese bond yields are negative out to 10 years. • Swiss bond yields are negative out to 50 years.

These are completely unsustainable developments. Buying stocks for their yield because bonds are at their lowest yields in 5000 years is like switching to cigarettes from crack for health purposes. At some point something will break in the bond markets. Central Banks are attempting to corner the asset class that is the benchmark for the risk-free rate globally. Put another way, investors are willing to PAY for the right to lend to these Governments for up to and even over a decade. At some point something is going to break here. When it does, stocks will implode below the 2008 lows. It’s only a matter of time.

Read more …

It’s not fair! They promised us the sky would fall…

Bank Of England Report Finds Economy Has Not Slowed Since Brexit Vote (G.)

Theresa May’s new administration has received a significant boost from a Bank of England report showing that the economy has been resilient in the first few weeks since the Brexit vote and displays no general signs of slowing down. The monthly survey by the Bank’s regional agents – considered to be the “eyes and ears” of policymakers in Threadneedle Street – found that a majority of firms questioned were not planning to mothball investment or change hiring plans. Even so, City analysts said the Bank was still likely to announce fresh stimulus measures for the economy next month in anticipation that the better-than-expected economic news since the referendum would not last.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “While there may be some relief that the economy may have dodged an immediate sharp slowdown from the Brexit vote, the danger is still very much there given the major uncertainty that is apparent – and there seems a compelling case for the Bank of England to deliver a substantial package of measures at its August meeting to try and bolster business and consumer confidence” The agents’ report was released at the same time as the Office for National Statistics reported that the labour market remained solid in the period from March to May, the first three months of the referendum campaign, with the jobless rate falling to its lowest level in more than a decade.

Read more …

Question: why did this talke so long?

US Links Malaysia PM, Wolf of Wall Street to Millions Stolen From 1MBD (WSJ)

U.S. prosecutors have linked the prime minister of Malaysia, a key American ally in Asia, to hundreds of millions of dollars allegedly siphoned from one of the country’s economic development funds, according to a civil lawsuit seeking the seizure of more than $1 billion of assets from other people connected to him. The Justice Department filed lawsuits Wednesday to seize assets that it said were the result of $3.5 billion that was misappropriated from 1Malaysia Development Bhd., or 1MDB, a fund set up by Prime Minister Najib Razak in 2009 to boost the Malaysian economy. The move sets up a rare confrontation between U.S. prosecutors and an important partner in the fight against terrorism.

The moderate Muslim nation is also a counterpoint to China’s rising ambitions in Asia. Among the Justice Department’s assertions: That some $1 billion originating with 1MDB was plowed into hotels; luxury real estate in Manhattan, Beverly Hills and London; fine art; a private jet and the 2013 film “The Wolf of Wall Street.” Among those behind the spending, the lawsuit alleges, was Riza Aziz, stepson of Mr. Najib. No criminal charges were filed. The Malaysian people were defrauded on an enormous scale, said Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe at a news conference announcing the complaints. The asset seizure would be the largest ever by the Justice Department’s anticorruption unit.

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Excuse me, but how did Goldman Sachs end up not being mentioned?

Singapore Finds UBS, DBS, StanChart ‘Failings’ in 1MDB Probe (BBG)

Singapore vowed to take action against four banks for failures in anti-money laundering controls and said it seized S$240 million ($177 million) in assets linked to alleged fraud at the Malaysian state investment company known as 1MDB. Preliminary findings uncovered “instances of control failings” in UBS’s Singapore branch, Standard Chartered’s local unit and DBS, as well as “substantial breaches” of anti-money laundering regulations at Falcon Private Bank in the city-state, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in a statement Thursday. The regulator’s probe, which started in March 2015, is part of global investigations into 1Malaysia Development Bhd. that stretch across Abu Dhabi, Switzerland, the Caribbean, Hong Kong and the U.S.

More than $3.5 billion was misappropriated from the Malaysian firm, and about $1 billion laundered through the U.S. banking system, the U.S. Justice Department said Wednesday as it launched what could potentially be its biggest ever seizure for such ill-gotten gains. “Supervisory examinations of financial institutions with 1MDB-related fund flows have revealed a complex international web of transactions involving multiple entities and individuals operating in several jurisdictions,” the Singapore central bank said. “Certain financial institutions in Singapore were among those used as conduits for these transactions” and MAS will be taking actions against them, it said.

Read more …

It’s really years too late to blame ratings agencies for one’s troubles.

Erdogan Declares State Of Emergency, Warns S&P ‘Don’t Mess With Turkey’ (ZH)

Having warned earlier of the possibility, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday announced a three-month state of emergency, saying this would enable the authorities to take swift and effective action against those responsible for last weekend’s failed military coup. He explicitly focused on the effort across his nation to “effectively tackle the Gulen movement,” as Erdogan stated that there might be more plans to continue coup attempts. The state of emergency, which comes into force after it is published in Turkey’s official gazette, will allow the president and cabinet to bypass parliament in passing new laws and to limit or suspend rights and freedoms as they deem necessary. The decision has immediately raised fears of more arbitrary arrests, killings and disappearances.

“The aim of the declaration of the state of emergency is to be able to take fast and effective steps against this threat against democracy, the rule of law and rights and freedoms of our citizens,” the president said. Erdogan, who has launched mass purges of state institutions since the July 15 coup attempt by a faction within the military, said the move was in line with Turkey’s constitution and did not violate the rule of law or basic freedoms of Turkish citizens. The president added that “citizens should have no concerns for democracy,” and warned ratings egency S&P “not to mess with Turkey” and comforted his citizens that a “state of emergency does not mean military rule” and that the decision was not against the constitution.

Erdogan said regional governors would receive increased powers under the state of emergency, adding that the armed forces would work in line with government orders. But most amusingly, Erdogan promptly warned S&P, which earlier today downgraded Turkey to BB, “not to mess with Turkey” and that the decision to downgrade the country was political. Finally, he lashed out at Europe, “which he said does not have the right to criticize this decision,” anticipating expressions of “concern” from the European Union, which has become increasingly critical of Turkey’s rights record and has urged restraint as Ankara purges its state institutions since the abortive coup.

Read more …

Ther are people who think they can shut down WikiLeaks? What do they think the US has been trying to do for years?

Wikileaks, About To Expose Turkish ‘Coup’, Under ‘Sustained Attack’ (TAM)

Wikileaks claimed Monday it was under attack after it announced it would release hundreds of thousands of documents related to Turkey and the failed military coup attempted Friday, CNET reported. The organization, which has released information on everything from war crimes to Hillary Clinton’s email scandal, announced Sunday it would be releasing 100,000 documents related to Turkey’s “political power structure,” some of which detail the “leadup” to the coup.

ANNOUNCE: Get ready for a fight as we release 100k+ docs on #Turkey’s political power structure. #TurkeyCoup #Soon
— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) July 18, 2016

Wikileaks anticipated the release would be censored in Turkey, cautioning in a three-part tweet posted Monday: “Turks will likely be censored to prevent them reading our pending release of 100k+ docs on politics leading up to the coup. We ask that Turks are ready with censorship bypassing systems such as TorBrowser and uTorrent and that everyone else is ready to help them bypass censorship and push our links through the censorship to come.” The Turkish government, headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has increasingly ramped up censorship efforts against journalists, lending credibility to Wikileaks suspicions their release may not fully reach Turkish citizens—especially considering the latest leak concerns his ruling party, AKP.

As CNET noted: “Facebook, Twitter and YouTube were reportedly blocked in Turkey during the attempted coup Friday, but many residents appear to have gotten around the blocks, posting messages and videos, likely using VPNs or other anonymizing services.”
Throughout Monday, Wikileaks continued to promote the release. (“Turks ask whether WikiLeaks is pro or anti-AKP. Neither. Our only position is that truth is the way forward. 100k+ docs serves all sides. – WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) July 18, 2016”). They then tweeted that instead of 100,000 documents, they would actually be releasing far more. “Our pending release of 100k docs on Turkish political power? Just kidding. The first batch is 300k emails, 500k docs,” they announced.

But just hours later, they alerted followers their website was being attacked. “Our infrastructure is under sustained attack,” they tweeted, alongside the hashtag, #TurkeyPurge. “We are unsure of the true origin of the attack. The timing suggests a Turkish state power faction or its allies. We will prevail & publish,” Wikileaks tweeted shortly after.

Read more …

Greece will be nervous.

Reports Of Turkish Commandos In Greek Aegean Put Athens On Alert (Kath.)

Reports that a group of Turkish military commandos tried to cross from Turkey to the island of Symi, in the southeastern Aegean, put the Greek armed forces on alert on Wednesday amid fears that ties between Greece and Turkey could be tested in the wake of a failed coup in the neighboring country. The Greek Coast Guard was on alert from around 11 a.m. when a group of inflatable dinghies and other vessels were seen departing from Datca, on the Turkish coast, in the direction of Symi. Confused intelligence referred to the presence of around 20 Turkish commandos on those vessels. Athens had been anticipating a possible attempt by participants in the failed coup to come to Greece and so took the reports seriously.

Later in the day, citing Turkish military officials, Reuters reported that Turkish F-16 fighter jets were scrambled to check reports that missing Turkish coast guard vessels had appeared in Greek waters in the Aegean. Some Turkish military hardware was stolen and used in the failed coup but Turkish government officials have insisted that no military equipment remains unaccounted for. Later on Wednesday, the Turkish interior ministry denied claims that rebel soldiers might have “hijacked” a vessel to flee to Greece, Reuters reported. Sources of the Hellenic Air Force confirmed that two Turkish F-16s had conducted patrols but they said they remained in Turkish air space. The Greek Coast Guard monitored the movements of the Turkish vessels, which remained in Turkish waters. Also, a contingent of the Greek Police was dispatched to Symi to conduct checks there.

The developments came after a statement by Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias on the anniversary of the Turkish occupation of Cyprus prompted a terse reaction by Ankara. “Greece does not and will never accept the consequences of the Turkish invasion,” Kotzias said. “It has made it clear to all sides that the elimination of the anachronistic system of guarantees and the withdrawal of all Turkish occupation forces – which, as the recent events in Turkey confirmed, undermine rather than ensure constitutional order and democratic normalcy – are an integral part of the solution of the Cyprus problem.” The Turkish Foreign Ministry responded that linking the Cyprus situation to recent events in Turkey was “ill-intentioned” and “unfortunate,” and called on Athens to avoid trying to benefit from the events and to display good neighborly behavior.

Read more …

Orlov contends that Erdogan is simply not that smart.

A Turkey of a Coup (Dmitry Orlov)

A lot of words have already been said in the past few days about the Turkish coup that couldn’t fly, but strangely enough some rather obvious things went unmentioned, so I’ll try to fill in a few gaps. Specifically, a lot of the things that have been said range from feeble-minded to utterly preposterous. If this is propaganda, then it sounds like very bad, weak propaganda. Still, there is no shortage of people endlessly repeating these talking points, whether because they get paid to or because they don’t know better. They are the ones I want to address.

Idiotic Theory #1: Erdogan staged his own coup in order to consolidate his power. Prior to the putsch, Erdogan went on vacation, which is traditionally the best time to overthrow a leader. For example, Gorbachev’s tenure as “president” of USSR was ended by a putsch in August 1991 while he was on vacation. People who are busy staging a putsch to consolidate their power don’t go on vacations; they are too busy plotting and orchestrating. Erdogan attempted to fly back to Turkey, only to find that he couldn t land at Istanbul Ataturk, then found himself chased by hostile F-16s. He then flew toward Europe and requested political asylum in Germany, which was refused (bye-bye, Germany!). At some point it dawned on him that most of the army and virtually all of the people in Turkey were on his side, and so he called upon them to take to the streets in defense of the legitimate government.

He did this using an improvised public communications technique that was almost a mockery of itself: his face on a cell phone held in front of a television camera. What followed wasn’t some peaceful, timid demonstration in support of the status quo but gonzo political action, complete with civilians laying down in front of tanks and getting crushed, followed by other civilians jumping on top of tanks and slitting the drivers’ throats. The putsch crumbled. The optics of all of this are hard to misread. He went on vacation; he tried to flee; he begged his people for help over a cell phone. He ended up looking like a very weak and confused leader in a region where leaders either look strong or they don’t stay leaders for long. Do you still think that he planned all this? I don’t.

Read more …

Demand.

More Pain Seen For US Crude As Product Glut Adds To Gloom (R.)

A glut of refined products has worsened the already-grim outlook for U.S. crude oil for the rest of the year and the first half of 2017, traders warned this week, as the spread between near-term and future delivery prices reached its widest in five months. A stubborn, massive supply overhang punished crude over the winter as U.S. oil futures hit 12-year lows in February. As supply outages and production cuts increased, crude rallied and spreads tightened significantly in May. But the unusually large amount of gasoline and oil in storage, combined with expectations of a ramp-up in crude production, has made traders more bearish on the price outlook for late 2016 and early 2017.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for delivery in September traded at a discount of as much as $2.23 to those for delivery in December on Wednesday, the biggest this year. Turnover in that spread soared, touching a record high of more than 19,000 contracts, or about 19 million barrels of oil. December spreads, which are the most actively traded, have also blown out in the past month. The discount of the WTI December 2016 contract to December 2017 widened to $4.11 last week. On Wednesday it traded as wide as $3.92 with over 15,000 lots traded. In May that spread had narrowed to just 50 cents, the tightest since November 2014.

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The craziest thing of all is foreign buyers often get credit from foreign banks, so New Zealand can only do so much; other than ban foreign buyers outright.

New Zealand House Bubble Warning Will ‘Shake Government’ (NZH)

A top banker’s dire warning about New Zealand’s overheated house prices shows the market is in crisis and an immigration rethink is needed, Labour says. In a strongly worded opinion piece, ANZ chief executive David Hisco has warned Auckland property prices are over-cooked and the end would likely be messy. He has joined several leading establishment figures in calling for stronger action on housing, and warns yesterday’s Reserve Bank lending restrictions did not go far enough. Hisco’s comments come after Finance Minister Bill English and Housing Minister Nick Smith signalled they expected property values to slow or drop.

Both told first home buyers to ride the bubble out before buying. Labour finance spokesman Grant Robertson said Hisco’s message reflected the fact the housing market was in crisis. “This is the kind of warning from inside the system that should, if nothing else, shake the Government.” Labour policy is to ban foreign buyers, extend the “bright line” test to five years so investment properties on-sold within five years have to pay a tax on the capital gains achieved, fast-track the building of affordable homes and begin consultation on ending negative gearing.

[..] NZ First leader Winston Peters said Hisco’s warning of a “messy end” was totally predictable and avoidable but had been ignored by the Government and others for too long. “There will be a correction. It is going to be enormously painful for hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders and that’s the sad part about it. Many people will lose their equity. But any conception such a build up in the house price bubble could go on shows what enormous denial the political system is in.” Peters said English and Smith were trying to stave off the inevitable. He did not believe the Reserve Banks’ moves this week to increase loan to value radios for investors from 30 to 40 per cent deposits would have much impact. “It’s crude, it’s blunt and not helpful.”

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Note: this is well before the ‘Greece crisis’, and well before Syriza was elected.

Greek Brain Drain Amounted To 223,000 People In 2008-2013 (Kath.)

A special study by the Bank of Greece on Wednesday showed that 223,000 young people left the country from 2008 to 2013 in search of a better future abroad, constituting the so-called “brain drain.” The results of recent research point to the vast majority of people aged between 25 and 39 years who left the country in the first five years of the Greek recession being single and with a university degree. The young Greeks left not only due to unemployment and adverse economic conditions but also because of state’s failure to provide and generate opportunities for professional evolution.

The Bank of Greece study revealed that the momentum and magnitude of the phenomenon makes it essential to record its characteristics and to investigate the factors that are in play before analyzing the negative consequences for the local economy. The main characteristic identified is that it mainly concerns the section of the workforce that is healthy, educated and specialized, and has high mobility and employability rate. The central bank also attributed the growth of the brain drain to the failure of the local education system to produce high-quality human capital and to the inability of the domestic economy to hold on to and attract talented workers.

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It’s not the air.

Warmer Water, Not Air, Drives Antarctic Peninsula Glacier Melt (CB)

The Antarctic Peninsula is a long, relatively narrow limb extending 800 miles out from West Antarctica, and is home to hundreds of glaciers. These rivers of ice ooze their way down through the Peninsula’s rocky mountain range and into the ocean, powered by gravity and their own weight. But of the 674 glaciers on the Peninsula’s western side, almost 90% are retreating. This happens when their ice melts faster than new snowfall can replenish it. The prevailing theory has been that warming air are melting the glaciers. But a new study, just published in Science, finds that the main cause is actually rising ocean temperatures. As the Peninsula’s glaciers are among the main contributors to sea level rise, knowing how and why they’re changing will help make predictions more accurate, the lead author tells Carbon Brief.

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth. Temperatures have risen by more than 3C over the past 50 years. The warming atmosphere has caused some remarkable changes to the eastern side of the Peninsula. The Larsen ice shelf, a floating sheet of ice formed from glaciers spilling out onto the cold ocean, has lost two of its four sections in recent decades. Larsen-A collapsed in 1995, followed by its neighbour, Larsen-B, in 2002. Rising air temperatures are also contributing to the thinning of Larsen-C, which is now at risk of collapse. Over on the western side of the Peninsula, around 600 small glaciers of various shapes and sizes have also been melting.

Scientists had thought that warming air temperatures were the likely cause of these retreating glaciers, says lead author Dr Alison Cook, a research fellow at the Durham University. She explains to Carbon Brief: “Few of these glaciers had been studied in detail and it was thought that their retreat was in response to the atmospheric warming, which has been the predominant driver on the eastern side.” However, recent research suggests the glaciers are retreating even more quickly than can be explained by just the warming atmosphere. Cook’s study finds that the main cause of glacier melt actually lies deep in the ocean – several hundred metres beneath the surface.


Average ocean temperatures (at a depth of 150m) and change in glacier size (in % per year) for 1945-2009 on the Antarctic Peninsula. The size and colour of the dots indicates glacier change – the larger, red dots showing the largest decrease, and the blue dots show stable glaciers that aren’t retreating. Ocean circulation and types of water mass are labelled as follows: Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), Shelf Water (SW), Bransfield Strait Water (BSW), and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Source: Cook et al. (2016)

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Jun 102016
 
 June 10, 2016  Posted by at 8:24 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  8 Responses »


Lewis Wickes Hine Workers in Maryland packing company 1909

Marc Faber: Brexit Would Be Best Thing To Happen in Britain’s History (CNBC)
Brexit Might Trigger Run On Britain’s Record Financial Debts, S&P Warns (AEP)
Heavy Cost Of UK’s Access To The Single Market In Europe (Connolly)
Germans Get Richer While Southern Europe Lags (R.)
Bill Gross Says Negative Rates Are Like ‘Supernova’ That Will Explode (BBG)
It Took The US $10 In New Debt To Create $1 Of Growth In Q1 (ZH)
Global Investors Are Fleeing US Stocks at a Record Pace (BBG)
US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession? (Mish)
Ready, Set, Crash – Could New Zealand Be Next To Fall? (NZ Herland)
Pity Poor China: There’s No Easy Fix to the S-Curve (CH Smith)
China’s Propaganda Department Not Good Enough At Propaganda (AFP)
How Mishandling Classified Info Affects People Not Named Clinton (USA T.)
They Died of Progress (Greer)
The Money Cult (Dmitry Orlov)
In Greek Refugee Camps, Wait For Asylum Fuels Unrest (R.)
3,000 Migrants Rescued Off Italian Coast; Two Bodies Found (R.)

Not a fan of the Union.

Marc Faber: Brexit Would Be Best Thing To Happen in Britain’s History (CNBC)

As investors wring their hands over the impact of Britain’s potential withdrawal from the European Union, otherwise known as “Brexit,” one of the market’s biggest bears delivered a surprising message. “I happen to think that a Brexit would be bullish for global economic growth,” Marc Faber told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday. “It would give other countries incentive to leave the badly organized EU.” The editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report emphasized that a vote on June 23 by Britain to leave the EU would be an ideal course of action for the country. Additionally, Faber expressed the belief that small countries like Croatia, Estonia and Malta would also prosper as independent nations versus being a part of a larger system.

Currently, the EU has 28 members that operate within a single market with the goal of encouraging the free movement of goods and services. British Prime Minister David Cameron has expressed disdain for leaving the bloc, explaining in a piece for The Telegraph that doing so would “be the gamble of the century.” However, that’s a risk that Faber says Britain should be willing to take and noted that the EU is an “empire that is hugely bureaucratic.” Faber further reasoned that a Brexit would not be a disaster. “On the contrary, it would be the best thing for Britain that would ever happen!” Faber defended his case by citing Switzerland, which is not a member of the EU nor the European Economic Area, but instead operates in the “single” market. That enables the Swiss to have rights in the U.K., but theoretically allows them to operate independently of both groups.

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“The level of debt coming due over the next 12 months is 755pc of the country’s external receipts..”

Brexit Might Trigger Run On Britain’s Record Financial Debts, S&P Warns (AEP)

Britain is the world’s most vulnerable state on a key measure of short-term debt and credit markets might suddenly seize up if voters opt for Brexit, Standard & Poor’s has warned. The US credit rating agency is crystal clear that Britain will be stripped of its coveted AAA status immediately and may face a double-barrelled downgrade if the country takes a leap in dark, jeopardizing its trading and financial ties to its biggest market. “We are categorical about this,” said Moritz Kraemer, the agency’s head of sovereign ratings. “There is no clear ‘Plan B’ in the UK and we are not going to wait until we find out what the British position actually is. We could potentially see a two-notch downgrade,” he told The Daily Telegraph.

Mr Kraemer said the British financial system is extremely dependent on external financing. This is the Achilles Heel for an economy that relies so heavily on the City of London, and has a current account deficit above 5pc of GDP – the highest in Britain’s peace-time history. The level of debt coming due over the next 12 months is 755pc of the country’s external receipts, the highest for all 131 sovereign states rated by S&P. This compares to 318pc for the US and 316pc for France, the next two states most exposed. Much of this short-term debt is owed by banks operating in the City, some of them American, Japanese, European, or Mid-East institutions.

In theory, the liabilities are matched by assets and therefore simply ‘net out’ if stress forces banks to shrink their operations, but crises have a nasty habit of revealing skeletons in the cupboard. “If there is no currency and maturity mismatch, then there is no big issue. But we don’t know that for sure,” Mr Kraemer said. “These sums are very large and have to be rolled over constantly. Nobody has ever hesitated in the past because it was always assumed that Britain is a safe haven and there is no risk,” he said.

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Bernard Connolly was never a fan of the EU. He sees Germany take over if Britain remains in the Union.

Heavy Cost Of UK’s Access To The Single Market In Europe (Connolly)

We are told that Britain’s net contribution to the EU budget, about 0.5pc of our GDP after the rebate (our gross contribution is much bigger; what we “get back” is EU payments to universities and interest groups as part of the EU’s subversion strategy) is the entry fee we must pay for “access” to the EU single market. Why do numerous other countries, with equal access to the single market, receive substantial net payments from the EU – that is, from us and a few other countries? Jean-Claude Juncker has said that France gets away with breaking the budgetary rules “because it’s France”. Britain is gleefully given the rough end of the stick by our partners “because it’s Britain”.

What access brings to Britain is the enormous cost of single market regulations imposed on all firms, not just the very small minority of exporters to the EU. It also brings higher prices in the shops because we are forced to apply the EU’s common external tariff to imports from third countries. Importantly, it brings a massive deficit with the EU on trade in goods and services – reducing the amount we can spend without borrowing from abroad by close to a massive 4pc of our GDP. But we do borrow. The trade deficit with the EU is the biggest single contributor to Britain’s unsustainable current-account position.

We do not yet have much net debt to the rest of the world. But if the current account deficit continues at anything like its present rate it will not be long before we build up foreign debt that leaves us with four choices: default; an economic depression like that in Greece; substantial sterling depreciation; and total political submission to Germany in the hope of getting permanent transfers from that country. The last option is far-fetched beyond science fiction. The first and second are obviously unthinkable for a country such as Britain, at least if we restore control over our own affairs by leaving the EU. That leaves just sterling depreciation, and the sooner it happens the less disruptive it will be. The more Leave thrives in the opinion polls, the better it is for the prospect of avoiding default and depression.

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Why the eurozone should fall. Everything moves towards the center. Design flaw, intentional or not, can’t be fixed.

Germans Get Richer While Southern Europe Lags (R.)

The wealth disparity in the euro zone is increasing, with rising property prices helping Germans get richer while southern European countries lag behind, a study has found. While the gap between northern countries, such as the Netherlands, and southern states like Portugal has long been a feature of the euro bloc, the study by an arm of German fund manager Flossbach von Storch shows it is getting ever wider. Taking a basket of items including property, stocks, art and expensive wine, the research concluded that wealth in Germany and Austria jumped more than 7% at the end of 2015 compared to a year earlier.

That was roughly twice the growth rate of Italy and Spain, while Greeks saw their wealth drop by more than 4%. Property prices, which, for example, jumped by more than 6% in Germany, are the biggest driver of wealth. This difference leads to political tension in the 19-member euro zone, while weak property prices in southern countries hit their banks, which hold homes and commercial property as security for loans. “Until 2006 when the bubble burst, countries in the south were really taking off. Now they are in a Japan-like situation,” said Thomas Mayer, founder of the research institute that carried out the study.

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Inevitable.

Bill Gross Says Negative Rates Are Like ‘Supernova’ That Will Explode (BBG)

Bill Gross, the manager of the $1.4 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, warned central bank policies that pushed trillions of dollars into bonds with negative interest rates will eventually backfire violently. “Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history,” Gross, 72, wrote Thursday on the Janus Twitter site. “$10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day.” A supernova is a star at the end of its life that suddenly increases greatly in brightness because of a catastrophic explosion that ejects most of its mass. Gross has argued for some time that the economy is at the end of a decades-long cycle of expanding credit that has culminated in negative interest rates, a situation he said is unsustainable.

Rather than spurring economic growth, low rates are promoting asset bubbles as investors reach for higher yields while punishing individual savers and industries that rely on interest rates, such as bank and insurance companies, according to Gross. He said in a June 2 note that the era of 7.5% annualized investment gains is history and that investors should eventually take positions to protect principal or profit from market declines. Returns will be low, risk will be high and at some point the ‘Intelligent Investor’ must decide that we are in a new era with conditions that demand a different approach,” he wrote. “Negative durations? Voiding or shorting corporate credit? Buying instead of selling volatility? Staying liquid with large amounts of cash? These are all potential ‘negative’ carry positions that at some point may capture capital gains or at a minimum preserve principal.”

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You can neither purchase nor borrow growth. When China reaches this phase, watch out.

It Took The US $10 In New Debt To Create $1 Of Growth In Q1 (ZH)

today we had a chance to update the total US credit following the release of the Fed’s Flow of Funds (Z.1) statement, which is usually parsed for its tracking of changes to household wealth. And while it showed that in  the first quarter the net worth of US residents, mostly the wealthy ones as the bulk of financial assets is held by a small fraction of the total population, rose by $837 billion to $88 trillion mostly as a result of a change in real estate holdings, we were more interest in the aggregate picture. It wasn’t pretty.

As a reminder, according to the latest BEA revision, nominal Q1 GDP was $18.23 trillion, an increase of just $65 billion from the previous quarter or an annualized 0.7% rate, the question is how much credit had to be created to generate this growth. Well, according to the Z.1, total credit rose to a new record high $64.1 trillion. This was an increase of $645 billion from the previos quarter. It means that in the first quarter, it “cost” $10 in new debt to generate just $1 in new economic growth!

 

And here are the two other key charts: the first, showing total credit (debt and loans) vs GDP growth since 1950. The trend is hardly anyone’s friend, except for those who create the debt out of thin air to pocket the ever lower cash flows associated with it (and await the next inevitable bailout):

 

More importantly, on a leverage ratio basis, the US economy is now at a level of 352% total credit/GDP, the highest since Q1 2013, and a level which has been relatively flat since it peaked at 380% just before the crash. One way to read this chart perhaps is that the “carrying debt capacity” of the US economy is roughly 380% at which point something “unexpected” happens. At the current rate of surging credit relative to slowing GDP, the US economy should be there in the not too distant future.

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This supposes people merely switch their money somewhere else, but some may simply need it fr other purposes.

Global Investors Are Fleeing US Stocks at a Record Pace (BBG)

The most determined seller of U.S. stocks may not be in the U.S. at all. Investors outside the country dumped $128 billion in American shares over the past year, data from the U.S. Treasury International Capital System show. Despite the higher quality of companies in the U.S., long-term investors may be drawn to the faster pace of growth in other economies, said Stewart Warther, an equity strategist at BNP Paribas.

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There’s those nasty pesky withholding taxes again.

US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession? (Mish)

US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey. The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession. Is it different this time?

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Boy oh boy.

Ready, Set, Crash – Could New Zealand Be Next To Fall? (NZ Herland)

“We’ve almost got the perfect storm,” says veteran fund manager Brian Gaynor as he reels off the many reasons New Zealand house prices and debt levels are soaring to precipitous heights. There are many ingredients. But right now, New Zealand seems to have them all: not enough building, restrictions on development, surging migration, baby boomer savings, low interest rates and banks that are all too happy to lend for property investment. “When you get the perfect storm like we did in the 1980s with the sharemarket, you see things just go up and up. People start to believe they will never fall,” he says.

“People didn’t believe the sharemarket would fall in the 80s. I’d come in from a trip to Australia and the guy at customs wouldn’t let me in unless I gave him sharemarket tips. It was just euphoria. Everyone was talking about the sharemarket. Now everyone is talking about the property market.” New Zealand’s gross debt is a whopping half trillion dollars; housing now accounts for $218 billion of that. As of April that housing debt was growing at an annualised rate of 8.3% – and that rate is accelerating. The median price of an Auckland house has almost doubled since the bottom of the last cycle in 2009, in the depths of the global financial crisis. The boom has now spilt over into the regions, with places like Hamilton and Tauranga surging 26 and 23% respectively in the past 12 months.

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We should think about how scary this is.

Pity Poor China: There’s No Easy Fix to the S-Curve (CH Smith)

The fundamental context of China’s economy is that it has traced out an S-Curve – as did previous fast-developing nations such as Japan and South Korea. The S-Curve can be likened to a rocket’s trajectory: first, there’s an ignition phase, as the fuel of financialization, cheap labor and untapped productive capacity is ignited. The boost phase lasts as long as credit-fueled production and consumption expand rapidly. In the boost phase, investors and financial authorities can do no wrong. The high growth rate of credit and production overwhelms all other factors, as the virtuous cycle of expanding profits and production increases wages which then support further expansion of credit and consumption which then supports more production, and so on.

A vast tide of foreign investment fuels an equally vast expansion of fixed capital assets such as factories and new homes. But then the fuel of financialization is consumed, and the previously fast-growing economy slows to stall speed. Depending on how much leverage, corruption and wealth has piled up in the boost phase, this phase may last a few years. This is the top of the S-Curve. As the economy weakens, everything that worked in the boost phase no longer works: expanding credit no longer boosts growth, inflating yet another real estate bubble no longer generates a widespread wealth effect, and every effort to shift from being an export-dependent economy to a self-supporting consumer economy fails to achieve liftoff.

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Study western media to see how it’s done?!

China’s Propaganda Department Not Good Enough At Propaganda (AFP)

hina’s propaganda department, tasked with controlling the media and arts, has been given a slap on the wrist for not being good enough at shaping public opinion, according to a report on a government website. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) posted an article on its website Wednesday that described findings from its two-month-long probe of the ruling Communist party’s propaganda department, which began in February. Leaders in the department did not feel a sufficient sense of responsibility for undertaking ideological work, the piece cited CCDI member and investigation spokesman Wang Huaichen as saying. Art was not directed clearly enough towards socialist aims and political thought not emphasised enough in universities, he was quoted as saying.

News propaganda was not targeted or effective enough, especially in the field of new media, where the department had failed to fully implement the principle of “the party controlling the media”, the post cited him as saying. Wang called upon the department to make propaganda appear more valid by enhancing its attractiveness and appeal, it said. The Communist party tolerates no opposition to its rule and newspapers, websites, and broadcast media are strictly controlled. An army of censors patrols social media and many Western news websites are blocked. President Xi Jinping reminded top state media outlets to “strictly adhere to the orders of the Chinese Communist Party” during a series of high-profile visits to their headquarters in February.

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How Hillary stands out against the US Marine Corps. Click the link to read a young man’s sense of duty and honor. Perhaps a bit overcharged, but what Clinton tries to get away with drags down the entire nation. She’s not the only one to flaunt the rules, but if the commander-in-chief -supposing she’s elected- does this, what does that tell everyone else? I can’t see the military and the FBI accepting it. Maybe the higher-ups would, but you don’t want widespread unrest in the ranks.

How Mishandling Classified Info Affects People Not Named Clinton (USA T.)

Clinton is the antithesis of that young captain, someone with no honor, little courage and commitment only to her endless ambition. This has nothing to do with gender, party affiliation, ideology or policy. It is a question of character — not just hers, but ours. Electing Clinton would mean abandoning holding people accountable for grievous errors of integrity and responsibility. What we already know about her security infractions should disqualify her for any government position that deals in information critical to mission success, domestic or foreign. But beyond that, her responses to being found out — dismissing its importance, claiming ignorance, blaming others — indict her beyond anything the investigation can reveal. Those elements reveal her character. And the saddest thing is that so many in America seem not to care.

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The downfall of the tech religion?!

They Died of Progress (Greer)

[..] the unspeakable has become the inescapable in today’s world. It’s become a running joke on the internet that the word “upgrade” inevitably means poorer service, fewer benefits, and more annoyances for those who have to deal with the new and allegedly improved product. The same logic can be applied equally well across the entire landscape of modern technology.  What’s new, innovative, revolutionary, game-changing, and so on through the usual litany of overheated adjectives, isn’t necessarily an improvement. It can be, and very often is, a disaster. Examples could be drawn from an astonishingly broad range of contemporary sources, but I have a particular set of examples in mind. 

To make sense of those examples, it’s going to be necessary to talk about military affairs. As with most things in today’s America, the collective conversation of our time provides two and only two acceptable ways to discuss those, and neither of them have anything actually useful to say. The first of them, common among the current crop of American pseudoconservatives, consists of mindless cheerleading; the second, common among the current crop of pseudoliberals all over the industrial world, consists of moralizing platitudes. I don’t particularly want to address the moralizing platitudes just now, other than to say that yes, war is ghastly; no, it’s not going away; and it’s not particularly edifying to watch members of the privileged classes in the countries currently on top of the international order insist piously that war ought to be abandoned forever, just in time to keep their own nations from being displaced from positions they won and kept at gunpoint not that many decades ago. 

The cheerleading is another matter, and requires a more detailed analysis. It’s common among the pseudoconservative right these days to insist that the United States is by definition the world’s most powerful nation, with so overwhelming a preponderance of military might that every other nation will inevitably have to bow to our will or get steamrollered. That sort of thinking backstops the mania for foreign intervention that guides neoconservatives such as Hillary Clinton on their merry way, overthrowing governments and destabilizing nations under the fond delusion that the blowback from these little adventures can never actually touch the United States. 

In America these days, a great deal of this sort of cheerleading focuses on high-tech weapons systems—inevitably, since so much of contemporary American pop culture has become gizmocentric to the point of self-parody. Visit a website that deals with public affairs from a right-of-center viewpoint, and odds are you’ll find a flurry of articles praising the glories of this or that military technology with the sort of moist-palmed rapture that teenage boys used to direct to girlie-mag centerfolds. The identical attitude can be found in a dizzying array of venues these days, very much including Pentagon press releases and the bombastic speeches of politicians who are safely insulated from the realities of war. There’s only one small difficulty here, which is that much of the hardware in question doesn’t work. 

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Lovely from Dmitry.

The Money Cult (Dmitry Orlov)

are there any unintended consequences of negative interest rates? Unintended consequences are hard to think about, and most people get a headache even trying. How can it be that clean, plentiful nuclear energy will eventually pollute the whole planet with long-lived radionuclides, resulting sky-high cancer rates? How can it be that wonderful genetically modified seeds will render us sickly and infertile in just a few generations? And how can it be that ingenious mobile computing technology has turned our children into zombies who are constantly twiddling their smartphones as they sleepwalk through life? It s hard to think about any of this without taking some happy pills; and how can it be that taking those happy pills has… you get the idea.

The unintended consequence of negative interest rates is that they destroy money. This is true in an entirely trivial sense: if you deposit x dollars at -p% annual, then a year later you will only have x(1-p) dollars because xp dollars has been destroyed. (In case you prefer to count on your fingers and toes, if you deposit $10 at -10% annual, then a year later you will only have $9 because $1 has been destroyed.) But what I mean is something slightly more profound: negative interest rates erode the very concept of money. To get at the reason for this, we have to ask a slightly more profound question: What is money? I think that money is the cult of the god Mammon.

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“Despite its intention to process all cases, Greece lacks the manpower to deal with the volume of applications. It says it needs more help from EU institutions. As many as 6,656 people applied for asylum in March and April this year, up from 1,899 in those months last year. Even if it could hire more people, they would need to be highly qualified legal experts, government officials say.”

In Greek Refugee Camps, Wait For Asylum Fuels Unrest (R.)

Tents were set on fire, punches were thrown, children cried through the night and families were forced to flee the burning detention camp and sleep in open fields. The tension is palpable on Greece’s islands, where about 8,000 asylum seekers feel stranded by a European Union deal with Turkey to stem the arrival of refugees and other migrants on European shores from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond. The deal, hailed a success by its European architects, prevents migrants from going beyond Greece – or even its islands – in their search for a new home in Europe, until their asylum claims are processed and those rejected are sent back to Turkey, from where they arrived. But some European officials say the assessment has been slow, and the wait long for those confined to often overcrowded camps.

In June, the most violent month yet, dozens were injured in clashes on three islands, police said. Videos in Greek media showed clouds of smoke rising over the centers on three occasions. In clashes on Lesvos the night of June 1-2, families with young children had to flee and spend the night in nearby fields or Mytilene town, several kilometers away, Amnesty International said. Many returned to burned down tents and destroyed belongings. Women told Amnesty they “live in constant fear” in camps where fights break out in food queues. Journalists are barred from entering the camps on the islands. But humanitarian organizations and police officials on the ground speak of people on edge. “They’re reacting. They want to leave the islands,” said a police official for the northern Aegean region which includes the islands of Lesvos, Samos and Chios where rival migrant groups brawled. “We’re bracing for all eventualities.”

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We will never know how many people drown unnoticed. If a tree falls in a forest…

3,000 Migrants Rescued Off Italian Coast; Two Bodies Found (R.)

More than 3,000 boat migrants have been rescued in the Mediterranean over the past two days and two bodies have been recovered, Italy’s coastguard said on Thursday. The coastguard coordinated rescues of migrants from 15 different boats on Thursday, bringing 1,950 people to safety. Two bodies were recovered from a rubber boat. Some 1,100 migrants were rescued at sea on Wednesday. The coastguard had no details about the nationalities of the migrants, nor about the two deaths.

All the rescues took place between Italy and Libya, where people-smugglers operate with impunity amid the chaos of civil war. Britain’s HMS Enterprise and Germany’s FGS Frankfurt, patrolling the area as part of the European Union’s anti-people-smuggling operation, together rescued migrants from seven boats, a coastguard spokesman said. A Doctors without Borders vessel, the Dignity 1, rescued almost 500 from four boats, while the Phoenix, run by humanitarian group Migrant Offshore Aid Station, took 243 people from two boats.

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May 112016
 
 May 11, 2016  Posted by at 3:39 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , ,  10 Responses »


Irving Underhill Irving Trust Building, Trinity Church, Wall Street, New York 1931

Last night, I made it back to Athens, still half a cripple, but there must be someone in this city who knows how to stick needles in the appropriate muscles, right?!, paid the rent for the Social Kitchen big house/nerve center late this morning, a tough 1 mile walk for my leg muscles -they kill me!-, still, that’s done, and hoping to get back to writing articles very soon, but having an ouzo right now just to make sure I blend in with the Romans. One can never be too sure.

Ergo: first here is, once again, our dearly beloved New England-raised friend from New Zealand, Nelson Lebo III, touching on a theme that will be found to have legs once the world sees Janet Yellen has no clothes on (and I DO understand the problem with that visual) :

Nelson Lebo: “Our already horrendous suicide rate hit a new record high last year.” The news of New Zealand’s suicide rate did not surprise me when I heard it on the radio earlier this week. Anyone who pays attention to global trends could see this coming. “Psychotherapists say we need a wide-ranging review into the mental health system before there are more preventable deaths” reported Newstalk ZB.

At lighter moments I joke that the best thing about living in New Zealand is that you can see worldwide trends that are heading this way, but the worst part is that no-one believes you. This is not a lighter moment. Suicide is a serious issue and one that is growing dramatically among my peer group: white middle-aged men.

The first people to notice the emerging pattern in the United States were Princeton economists Angus Deaton and Anne Case. The New York Times reported on 2nd November, 2015 that the researchers had uncovered a surprising shift in life expectancy among middle-aged white Americans – what traditionally would have been considered the most privileged demographic group on the planet.

The researchers analyzed mountains of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as other sources. As reported by the Times, “they concluded that rising annual death rates among this group are being driven not by the big killers like heart disease and diabetes but by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse: alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids. The mortality rate for whites 45 to 54 years old with no more than a high school education increased by 134 deaths per 100,000 people from 1999 to 2014.”

The most amazing thing about this discovery is that the Princeton researchers stumbled across these findings while looking into other issues of health and disability. But as we hear so often, everything is connected. A month before releasing this finding Dr. Deaton was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics based on a long career researching wealth and income inequality, health and well-being, and consumption patterns.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences credited Dr. Deaton for contributing significantly to policy planning that has the potential to reduce rather than aggravate wealth inequality. In other words, to make good decisions policy writers need good research based on good data. Too often this is not the case. “To design economic policy that promotes welfare and reduces poverty, we must first understand individual consumption choices. More than anyone else, Angus Deaton has enhanced this understanding.”

Days before hearing the news about New Zealand’s rising suicide rate I learned of another major finding from demographic researchers in the United States. For the first time in history the life expectancy of white American women had decreased, due primarily to drug overdose, suicide and alcoholism. This point is worth repeating as it marks a watershed moment for white American women. After seeing life expectancies continually extend throughout the history of the nation, the trend has not only slowed but reversed. Data show the slip is only one month, but the fact that it’s a decrease instead of another increase should be taken as significant milestone.

Please note that the following sentence is not meant in the least to make light of the situation, but is simply stating a fact. The demographic groups that are experiencing the highest rates of drug overdose, suicide and alcoholism are also the most likely to be supporters of Donald Trump in his campaign for the U.S. Presidency. It does not take a Nobel Laureate to observe a high level of distress among white middle-class Americans. Trump simply taps into that angst.

As reported by CBS News, “The fabulously rich candidate becomes the hero of working-class people by identifying with their economic distress. That formula worked for Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s. Today, Donald Trump’s campaign benefits from a similar populist appeal to beleaguered, white, blue-collar voters – his key constituency.”

I don’t blame most Americans for being angry. That the very architects of the global financial crisis have only become richer and more powerful since they crashed the world economy in 2008 is unforgivable. The gap between rich and poor continues to widen and the chasm has now engulfed white middle-aged workers. As the Pope consistently tells us, wealth and income inequality is the greatest threat to humanity alongside climate change.

Instead of going down the Trump track for the rest of this piece, I’d rather wrap it up by bringing the issue back to Aotearoa (New Zealand) and my small provincial city of Whanganui. To provide some background for international readers, the NZ economy relies significantly on dairy exports and many dairy farmers hold large debts. Dairy prices are known for their volatility, and recently the payouts have dropped below break-even points for many farmers.

Earlier this month Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy announced that the government would invest $175,000 to study innovative, low cost, high performing farming systems already in place in New Zealand. Stuff.co.nz reported, “The government is set to pick the brains of New Zealand’s top dairy farmers in an effort to help those struggling with the low dairy payout.”

That is great news, but the government’s investment in researching the best of the best farmers is a pittance when compared with what is spent addressing issues of depression and suicide prevention among Kiwi farmers. Isn’t this a case of putting the cart ahead of the horse, or treating symptoms instead of causes?

Research shows that financial stress contributes significantly to the increasing suicide rates here and abroad. We know that innovative farmers who use low-input/high-performance systems are more profitable that their conventional farming brethren. Would it then be a stretch to conclude that depression and suicide is much lower among these innovative and profitable farmers? At the same time, research shows that wealth and income inequality in our more urban centres contribute to anti-social behaviours such as crime, domestic abuse and illegal drug usage.

Angus Deaton, the Nobel-winning economist, would argue that in order for policy planners to address these issues effectively they must understand the underlying causes and resultant costs. Thankfully, we do see glimmers of that from central government instead of the usual neoliberal claptrap. Credit must be given to Finance Minister Bill English for his actuarial approach to some social issues rather than the inaccurate dogmatic position often adopted by the right.

But closer to home for me, such enlightened policy planning has yet to reach our city by the awa (river). To start off, the Council’s rates structure is stunningly regressive, clearly taking significantly higher proportions of household wealth from low-income families than from high-income families. If we believe the research in this field (ie, The Spirit Level, etc) wouldn’t we expect the widening gap between rich and poor to result in even more anti-social behavior in our city that already suffers from reputation problems nationwide?

Secondly, the council’s vision documents and long-term plan are nearly devoid of intelligent strategies to address the underlying issues of anti-social behaviour, depression, poor health, and domestic problems that afflict our community. The Council pours mountains of money into an art gallery and arts events while providing token services and events for low-income families.

Will it take our own Trump or Sanders running for office to stimulate a populist revolt against regressive policies that potentially do more harm than good to our community? What will it take for us to finally get it? I first wrote about these issues in our city’s newspaper, the Chronicle, two and a half years ago… but, apparently, no one believed me. Welcome to provincial New Zealand!

Sep 172015
 
 September 17, 2015  Posted by at 9:48 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  2 Responses »


NPC Newsstand with Out-of-Town Papers, Washington DC 1925

Europe Faces Several Decades Of Heavy Immigration (NY Times)
The Growth of Refugee Inc. (WSJ)
Refugees Face Tear Gas, Water Cannons As They Cut New Paths Through Europe (WaPo)
Turkey Threatens To Oust Refugees Camped Near Greek Border (Guardian)
Bulgaria Sends Troops To Guard Border With Turkey (Reuters)
The German Town Offering Refugees Work For €1 An Hour (Bloomberg)
Fed Decision-Day Guide: Zero Hour for Moves on Rates, Dot Plot (Bloomberg)
QE’s Cost: Fed Exit May Hit Economy Faster Than in Past Cycles (Bloomberg)
World Bank Fears ‘Perfect Storm’ As Fed Weighs First Rate Hike Since 2008 (AFP)
China Stocks Sink in Late Trade With Volatility at 18-Year High (Bloomberg)
Japan Rating Cut by S&P as Abe Falls Short of Early Promise (Bloomberg)
Goldman Sees 15 Years of Weak Crude as $20 U.S Oil Looms (Bloomberg)
Shale Oil’s Retreat Threatens to Leave US Short on Natural Gas (Bloomberg)
Macquarie: Emerging Markets Not Facing 1997-Style Crisis, But Worse (Bloomberg)
The African Nations Most Exposed to China’s Slump (Bloomberg)
Jeremy Corbyn’s QE For The People Is Exactly What The World May Soon Need (AEP)
Ukraine Bans Journalists Who ‘Threaten National Interests’ From Country (Guardian)
New Zealand Blocks Farm Purchase By Chinese Firm (BBC)
Look Out New Zealand, Here Comes Another Act of God (Bloomberg)

“..a wave of migration that makes current debates about accepting hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers seem irrelevant..”

Europe Faces Several Decades Of Heavy Immigration (NY Times)

European leaders probably don’t want to hear this now, as they frantically try to close their borders to stop hundreds of thousands of desperate migrants and asylum seekers escaping hunger and violence in Africa and the Middle East. But they are dealing with the unstoppable force of demography. Fortified borders may slow it, somewhat. But the sooner Europe acknowledges it faces several decades of heavy immigration from its neighboring regions, the sooner it will develop the needed policies to help integrate large migrant populations into its economies and societies. That will be no easy task. It has long been a challenge for all rich countries, of course, but in crucial respects Europe does a particularly poor job.

Perhaps it’s not surprising, as a recent report by the OECD found, that it is harder for immigrants to get a job in EU nations than in most other rich countries. But that doesn’t explain why it is also harder for their European-born children, who report even more discrimination than their parents and suffer much higher rates of unemployment than the children of the native-born. Rather than fortifying borders, European countries would do better to improve on this record. The benefits would be substantial, for European citizens and the rest of the world. Over the summer, as Hungary hurried to lay razor wire along its southern border and E.U. leaders hashed out plans to destroy smugglers’ boats off the coast of North Africa, the United Nations Population Division quietly released its latest reassessment of future population growth.

Gone is the expectation that the world’s population will peak at 9 billion in 2050. Now the U.N. predicts it will hit almost 10 billion at midcentury and surpass 11 billion by 2100. And most of the growth will come from the poor, strife-ridden regions of the world that have been sending migrants scrambling to Europe in search of safety and a better life. The population of Africa, which has already grown 50% since the turn of the century, is expected to double by 2050, to 2.5 billion people. South Asia’s population may grow by more than half a billion. And Palestine’s population density is expected to double to 1,626 people per square kilometer (4,211 per square mile), three times that of densely populated India.

Over the next several decades, millions of people are likely to leave these regions, forced out by war, lack of opportunity and conflicts over resources set in motion by climate change. Rich Europe is inevitably going to be a prime destination of choice. “With Africa’s population likely to increase by more than three billion over the next 85 years, the EU could be facing a wave of migration that makes current debates about accepting hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers seem irrelevant,” wrote Adair Turner, the former chairman of Britain’s Financial Services Authority and now chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking.

Read more …

Quite a story.

The Growth of Refugee Inc. (WSJ)

The annual report in 2013 from a multibillion-dollar London private-equity firm that counts a French pastry baker and a Dutch shoemaker among its holdings touted a new opportunity with “promising organic and acquisitive growth potential.” That investment was the management of refugee camps. “The margins are very low,” said Willy Koch, the retired founder of the Swiss company, ORS Service, which runs a camp in Austria that overflowed this summer with migrants who crossed from the Balkans and Hungary. “One of the keys is, certainly, volume.” Since early 2014, more than a million people have claimed asylum in the EU. Germany alone is preparing for at least 800,000 asylum-seekers this year. The surge, experts say, amounts to the biggest movement of people in Europe since World War II.

The crisis has produced harrowing tales of tragic deaths and lives in upheaval. It is also giving shape to an industry that everyone from small Greek shop owners to some of America’s biggest pension funds are benefiting from: the business of migration. In many ways, private companies are increasingly defining the European migration experience. In some cases, the companies see potential to win favor with a future group of European consumers, a welcome jolt amid the Continent’s economic doldrums. In other cases, they are stepping in to help provide services that governments can’t or won’t. At times they have provoked protests from advocacy groups who accuse them of cutting corners in order to profit from human misery. Some of the businesses, in turn, say they are sensitive to the risks of working with vulnerable people, and they argue that neither governments nor charities can meet on their own the huge range of demands resulting from the tide of migrants now arriving in Europe.

“Because of our involvement it is a better service run more efficiently,” said Guy Semmens, partner at Geneva-based private-equity firm Argos Soditic, which previously invested in ORS. There are also profits to be made. In Germany, Air Berlin was paid some $350,000 last year operating charter flights to deport rejected asylum seekers on behalf of the government. In Sweden, the government paid a language-analysis firm $900,000 last year to verify asylum-seekers’ claims of where they were from. In Athens, a Western Union branch has been disbursing €20,000 a day to migrants, reaping fees on each transaction. “I’m making at least twice the money I was making last year,” said Mohammed Jafar, the Afghanistan-born owner of the branch. “I wouldn’t make this in any other country in Europe.”

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Let’s see Hungary attract tourists after this.

Refugees Face Tear Gas, Water Cannons As They Cut New Paths Through Europe (WaPo)

Refugees blazed a new pathway through Europe on Wednesday, with hundreds hiking through cornfields to reach welcoming Croatia even as others faced tear gas and water cannons from Hungarian police determined to turn them away. The contrasting scenes along the Serbian border highlighted both the make-or-break resolve of the asylum seekers and the growing friction facing Europe, which has failed to create a coordinated policy for the unprecedented influx of economic migrants and war refugees from the Middle East, Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan. “We hit a stone and we flow around it”, said Arazak Dubal, 28, a computer programmer from Damascus, who had been on the road for 18 days.

He and his three companions reached Belgrade only to discover on Facebook and WhatsApp that the Hungarian border was closed to refugees. “So I went to Google Maps, and here we are”, said Dubal, huffing in the hot afternoon as he trudged across the farm fields. A two-hour drive to the northeast -along Serbia’s frontier with Hungary- the route was slammed shut. Just steps from Hungary, thousands of people spent the night in the wet grass on the Serbian side of the border. Hours later, hundreds tried to punch through the cordon of razor wire and riot police massed near the Serbian border town of Horgos. But they ran headlong into security forces≠ who unleashed tear gas and pepper spray to drive them back. Some refugees were swatted by batons and crumpled to the ground in pain.

“Open the door! the refugees yelled as they hurled water bottles and debris at riot police. Nearby, children screamed for their missing parents. Water cannons sprayed crowds on the Serbian side, forcing refugees to retreat to a squalid squatters camp that took root just after Hungary closed the border Tuesday. There were no major injuries, but some refugees were treated by Serbian authorities for respiratory problems from the tear gas and at least one migrant had a leg injury, AP reported. It was the first major clash between security force and migrants since police used stun grenades to stop refugees from crossing into Macedonia from Greece almost a month ago “We fled wars and violence and did not expect such brutality and inhumane treatment in Europe”, said Amir Hassan, who was drenched from a water cannon and tried to wash tear gas from his eyes, according to AP.

Read more …

“Turkey is hosting approximately 2 million refugees..”

Turkey Threatens To Oust Refugees Camped Near Greek Border (Guardian)

Turkish authorities have announced that hundreds of refugees who have set up camp on a main road at Edirne near the Greek border will be forcibly removed in three days if they refuse to leave. Many others are holding out at Istanbul’s main bus station in the hope of reaching northern Europe by land rather than risk the perilous sea journey. Bus services from the main terminal in Istanbul to cities on the Greek and Bulgarian borders were suspended last week, prompting several hundred refugees, most of them Syrians, to take to the road in an attempt to reach the European Union on foot. In the small green spaces around the bus terminal, some refugees have set up camp, with families trying to shelter smaller children against the sun with blankets and jackets.

Renas, 25, a Syrian-Kurdish construction worker from Qamishli, said he had no other hope than trying to reach Europe to claim asylum. “We are running away from a war and from the oppression of [Syrian president] Bashar [al-Assad]. There is nothing in Syria anymore, no jobs, no life, no future. In Turkey life is very difficult, because we are not allowed to work and there are no jobs here.” Turkey is hosting approximately 2 million refugees, the largest such population in the world. But increasingly difficult living and working conditions, as well as the impossibility of claiming asylum in the country, has led a growing number of people to try to reach Europe via smugglers’ routes.

Renas said he did not want to risk the dangerous journey by sea. “I have several relatives who drowned on their way to Greece,” Renas said. “These boats are nothing but floating death traps, they are not safe at all.” On Tuesday at least 22 people drowned off the Turkish coast after their boat capsized. Most refugees have resorted to paying smugglers to take them from the Turkish coast to Greek islands after authorities cracked down on the routes from Turkey to Greece and Bulgaria via the land borders.

Read more …

All together now!

Bulgaria Sends Troops To Guard Border With Turkey (Reuters)

Bulgaria is sending more soldiers to strengthen controls along its border with Turkey and avoid a refugee influx that has overwhelmed its neighbours, Defense Minister Nikolay Nenchev said on Wednesday. “There is a change in the situation in the past few days and it is hard to predict where the refugee wave will head…so we are standing ready,” Nenchev told public BNR radio. Fifty soldiers have been sent to the border and a further 160 could be deployed by the end of Thursday. The Bulgarian army could send up to 1,000 troops to back up border police if needed, he added.

Bulgaria took the measures after reports that hundreds of mostly Syrian refugees have spent the night in the open near the Turkish border with Greece, which is also very close to Bulgarian-Turkish border. Bulgaria is a member of the European Union but not the border-free Schengen Area. About 660 migrants have tried to cross the Bulgarian-Turkish border in the past 25 hours but have returned voluntarily after they had seen that the border was well-guarded, the chief secretary of the interior ministry Georgi Kostov, told reporters. Bulgaria is a member of the European Union but not the border-free Schengen Area.

Read more …

“.. the maximum allowed for new arrivals. ..”

The German Town Offering Refugees Work For €1 An Hour (Bloomberg)

Anas Al-Asadi spent three months and €6,000 making his way from his home in Damascus to Germany, braving the frigid waters of the Mediterranean aboard leaky, overcrowded ships on three separate occasions, culminating in a rescue by the Italian Coast Guard and finally a bus across the Alps. For the next four months, he was bored stiff. Then the 26-year-old got a job through a municipal program in Pfungstadt, a German town 25 miles south of Frankfurt, where he landed in February. The work wasn’t exactly challenging for Al-Asadi, who had been an attorney in Syria, and it certainly wasn’t well paid. His employer was a local youth club, since private companies are barred from hiring people without work permits, and he earned just €1 per hour, the maximum allowed for new arrivals.

But he says even simply vacuuming and sorting library books helped him better understand German culture and forced him to learn the language. “I was just sitting there sleeping, eating, doing nothing,” said Al-Asadi, who has since gotten asylum and just started working as a waiter in a local cafe. “I asked if I could do something – anything.” The town of 24,000 is home to more than 100 refugees seeking to start the formal asylum process and 50 others who have been granted residency, with more sure to come. The best way to integrate them, local officials say, is to help them find work, even if it’s odd jobs at community centers.

Read more …

2 pm EDT.

Fed Decision-Day Guide: Zero Hour for Moves on Rates, Dot Plot (Bloomberg)

Here’s what to look for when the Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement along with quarterly economic projections at 2 p.m. Thursday in Washington, and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. he FOMC will weigh the impact on the U.S. outlook from slowing growth overseas and falling stock prices, as committee members determine whether to end almost seven years of near-zero interest rates. Economists are close to evenly divided on the outcome, with 59 of 113 surveyed by Bloomberg expecting the Fed to stand pat “It is a very finely balanced question,” said Jonathan Wright, a professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a former economist at the central bank’s Division of Monetary Affairs. “It is close to a 50-50 call.”

While economic data have been “pretty compelling,” investors are skeptical the FOMC will want to move in the face of recent financial turbulence, said Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities. The FOMC’s forecasts of the benchmark fed funds rate, revealed in dot-filled charts representing each official’s projections, may suggest a more gradual pace of tightening over the next few years than was suggested in June, said Michael Hanson at Bank of America. “The most important thing investors will try to ascertain is the pace of hikes going forward,” he said. “Yellen has emphasized that it is not liftoff that matters but it is the pace of tightening and we will get some additional information on that.”

Read more …

New tricks, never tested, eyes wide shut and costing trillions.

QE’s Cost: Fed Exit May Hit Economy Faster Than in Past Cycles (Bloomberg)

Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee wrap up a two-day meeting on Thursday to debate whether to increase the benchmark federal funds rate, which they have held near zero since late 2008. If and when they do move, it won’t be like before, and they’ll be using new tools to lift rates higher. In the past, the central bank kept the fed funds rate at or near the target chosen by policy makers by injecting or draining bank reserves from the system via the New York Fed’s trading desk. The amounts of cash involved were small and the Fed was pretty good at hitting its desired rate. Not anymore. Three rounds of so-called quantitative easing from 2008 to 2014, in which the Fed bought bonds to support the economy, has swamped banks with cash –deposited with them by investors who sold bonds to the Fed.

That added $2.6 trillion of reserves in excess of requirements to banks’ accounts held at the Fed. It also boosted the size of the Fed’s own balance sheet to $4.5 trillion, a five-fold increase from pre-crisis levels. [..] With so much cash and little need for banks to borrow in the fed funds market, the Fed has lost the ability to lift the funds rate in the way that it did before the crisis. It has also decided for now against selling the bonds back to investors, which would shrink its own balance sheet and extinguish the excess reserves. Instead, Fed officials designed new tools to help the central bank raise rates without reducing its balance sheet, which it hopes to slowly shrink over years by letting the bonds it now holds mature, without reinvestment. Officials say they expect to phase out reinvestments sometime after liftoff.

Their main innovation, an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, is a powerful solution, but heavy usage may cause problems for banks trying to comply with new regulations installed in the wake of the financial crisis, said Zoltan Pozsar at Credit Suisse. The facility promises to drain reserves from the banks by encouraging investors to withdraw the deposits created when they sold bonds to the Fed, and place the cash in money-market mutual funds. Through overnight reverse repos, the Fed can borrow the cash from money funds at a specified rate and post securities as collateral, unwinding the trades the next day. In effect, the Fed will be borrowing back the money it created to buy the bonds while cutting out the middlemen in the banking system.

Read more …

No doubt there. But is that so bad?

World Bank Fears ‘Perfect Storm’ As Fed Weighs First Rate Hike Since 2008 (AFP)

The U.S. Federal Reserve opened a two-day meeting Wednesday to weigh a historic interest rate increase amid calls for it to move gingerly as world economic growth slows. The World Bank has warned developing economies to prepare for more capital and currency market turmoil while the OECD urged the Fed to move slowly and make its policy plans clear, whatever it decides. Most analysts saw the Fed again putting off the long-awaited increase to the benchmark federal funds rate, which has been locked at 0-0.25% since the 2008 crisis, giving the world a massive supply of cheap dollars. While U.S. growth has been strong, still-weak inflation and the recent China-driven turmoil in global markets “most likely mean that the FOMC will leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting,” said Harm Bandholz of UniCredit.

The Fed has not raised rates in more than nine years, and what would probably amount to an increase of 0.25 percentage point would represent a momentous break with the extraordinary crisis stance it has adopted since the 2008-2009 recession. It would begin what is expected to be a slow series of rate hikes toward a “normal” monetary policy stance of around 3% in the next two years. But it would also make the dollar more expensive and hike borrowing costs for developing economies around the world. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, led by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, will announce a decision at 1800 GMT Thursday. Yellen will then address the media, with analysts saying her justification will be as crucial to markets as the decision itself.

Read more …

Zero faith in Beijing left. This could get very ugly very fast.

China Stocks Sink in Late Trade With Volatility at 18-Year High (Bloomberg)

China’s stocks sank in the last 30 minutes of trading in thin volumes as traders tested the limits of state support amid the biggest price swings since 1997. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 2.1% to 3,086.60 at the close, wiping out an advance of as much as 1.7%, as material and drug companies slumped. The benchmark gauge jumped 4.9% on Wednesday in a last-hour rally – the hallmark of state-backed fund buying – after falling dropped 6.1% in the first two days of the week. Volatility is surging and turnover is slumping on concern government intervention will fail to shore up the world’s second-largest stock market amid signs of a deeper economic slowdown.

Price swings have been exacerbated by state investigations into market manipulation as well as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate meeting this week. “The market is becoming increasingly volatile as state support has caused confusion to the market and investors,” said Li Jingyuan, head of securities investment at Shanghai Zhaoyi Asset Management. “Information on state buying isn’t transparent and it seems that the national team doesn’t have a clear strategy and tactics. So you see a volatile market as investors don’t follow state buying.”

Read more …

Abenomics’ third arrow turns out to be a downgrade.

Japan Rating Cut by S&P as Abe Falls Short of Early Promise (Bloomberg)

Standard & Poor’s cut Japan’s long-term credit rating one level to A+, saying it sees little chance of the Abe government’s strategy turning around the poor outlook for economic growth and inflation over the next few years. The move comes just a day after the Bank of Japan refrained from boosting record asset purchases, betting there will be a resumption in growth and inflation. That’s left the onus on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Cabinet to consider a fiscal stimulus package to boost what evidence indicates is a lackluster recovery in the second half of the year so far. “We believe that the government’s economic revival strategy – dubbed “Abenomics” – will not be able to reverse this deterioration in the next two to three years,” S&P said in a statement. “Economic support for Japan’s sovereign creditworthiness has continued to weaken.”

Japan’s problems are mounting, with inflation near zero, the economy contracting last quarter and debt rising as the population ages. The IMF estimates public debt will increase to about 247% of gross domestic product next year. Japan’s sovereign debt yield and bond risk have stayed low as the Bank of Japan pushes on with its unprecedented asset purchases. The benchmark 10-year government bond yield was at 0.37% on Wednesday, after touching a record low of 0.195% in January. Credit-default swaps insuring Japan’s sovereign notes have dropped 30 basis points this year to 37 basis points, according to data provider CMA. “The government’s fiscal reform plan released in June lacked details and specifics, making it look unreliable on how to ensure fiscal sustainability,” said Masaki Kuwahara at Nomura in Tokyo, who said the downgrade wasn’t a surprise after a cut by Moody’s in December.

“Today’s downgrade is a message that the government will need to have a more credible fiscal reform plan.” Toshihiro Uomoto, a credit strategist at Nomura, said the risk now is that overseas investors will take a more critical view of Abenomics. “Japan is trying to escape from deflation, but it’s not succeeding,” he said. “The perception is that the Bank of Japan’s policy isn’t having as much of an impact as it was originally aiming for.” Japan is now rated lower than China and South Korea – two of its key economic rivals – by S&P. South Korea was lifted one level to AA- on Tuesday, with S&P citing the nation’s sound fiscal position and relatively strong economic performance.

Read more …

Take out the zombie capital and restructure. Only way forward.

Goldman Sees 15 Years of Weak Crude as $20 U.S Oil Looms (Bloomberg)

A glut of crude may keep oil prices low for the next 15 years, according to Goldman Sachs. There’s less than a 50% chance that prices will drop to $20 a barrel, most likely when refineries shut in October or March for maintenance, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at the bank, said in an interview in Lake Louise, Alberta. Goldman’s long-term forecast for crude is at $50 a barrel, he said. Goldman cut its crude forecasts earlier this month, saying the global surplus of oil is bigger than it previously thought and that failure to reduce production fast enough may require prices to fall near $20 a barrel to clear the glut. Prices may touch that level when stockpiles are filled to capacity, forcing producers in some areas to cut output, Currie said Wednesday.

“When we think of the longer term oil price, yes we put it at $50 a barrel,” he said. “However the risks are to the downside given what’s happening in the other commodity markets and the macro markets more broadly.” Lower iron ore, copper and steel prices as well as weaker currencies in commodity-producing countries have reduced costs for oil companies, according to Currie. The world is shifting from an “investment phase” of a 30-year commodity cycle to an “exploitation phase,” with shale fields as an important source of output, he said.

Read more …

Rest of the world will keep pumping all out.

Shale Oil’s Retreat Threatens to Leave US Short on Natural Gas (Bloomberg)

The retrenchment in drilling for U.S. oil is threatening to leave a different market short: natural gas. “The impacts of oil rig counts extend beyond oil: the outlook for U.S. natural gas is critically dependent on the outcome of this balancing act in U.S. oil rigs,” Anthony Yuen, a strategist at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in a report to clients Wednesday. “If the oil market remains oversupplied and oil-rig counts fall, the decline in associated gas production would leave the market short of gas.” Associated gas is the gas that comes out of oil wells along with the crude. Supplies of this byproduct from fields including the Bakken formation in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas may fall by about 1 billion cubic feet a day next year as drillers idle rigs in response to the collapse in oil prices, Yuen said.

That’s about 7% of U.S. residential gas demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has already forecast that shale gas production will drop in October for the fourth straight month, a record streak of declines. U.S. oil has lost half its value in the past year amid a worldwide glut of crude. Drillers have responded by sidelining almost 60% of the country’s oil rigs since Oct. 10. Crude producers in the lower 48 states may have to keep the number of working rigs low for a while longer to balance the global market, Yuen said. A recovery in the rig count may “exacerbate the current oversupplied environment” and weaken prices, he said.

Read more …

Back 100 years?!

Macquarie: Emerging Markets Not Facing 1997-Style Crisis, But Worse (Bloomberg)

If the 1997 Asian financial crisis was a heart attack for emerging markets, the current situation is akin to chronic cardiovascular disease, according to Macquarie analysts led by Viktor Shvets and Chetan Seth. In 1997, speculative attacks against the Thai baht forced the country to float and devalue its currency in a move that was swiftly followed by the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. Then came a massive decline in Hong Kong’s stock market that led to losses in markets around the globe. While parallels exist between 1997 and the current emerging market selloff (notably in the form of a stronger dollar, which makes it more expensive for emerging-market countries to finance their debts, plus lower commodity prices and slowing trade), the Macquarie analysts reckon the current situation might actually be worse.

Instead of sharp heart attack (a la 1997), it is far more likely that EM economies and markets would face an extended period that can be best described as a “chronic disease”, with limited (if any) cures or exits, punctuated by occasional significant flare-ups (short of an outright heart attack). In many ways it is likely to be a far more painful and insidious process. In the meantime, any signs of significant strain (either at a country or corporate level) could easily freeze up the emerging market universe.

The crux of their argument is that despite the difficulties of 1997, its effects were mitigated by rising global leverage, liquidity, and trade shortly thereafter. This time around, those factors might not be there.

[A c]ombination of excessively loose monetary policies (particularly post 2000 bursting of dot-com bubble) and China’s integration into global trade systems has enabled both EMs and DMs to recover quickly. This does not describe the environment facing EMs and DMs over the next five to ten years. The combination of long-term structural shifts (primarily driven by the grinding deflationary progress of the Third Industrial Revolution, which first became apparent in early 1990s but matured into a global phenomenon over the last decade), is aggravated by the more recent impact of overleveraging and associated overcapacity.

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“If you are at the top of the list in terms of dependence on China and your economy is not well diversified, there are a bunch of negative things which can fall like dominoes..”

The African Nations Most Exposed to China’s Slump (Bloomberg)

China’s slowdown is rippling across Africa and these three nations are the most exposed, relying on demand from the Asian economy for almost half their exports: Republic of Congo, Angola and Mauritania. Oil accounts for the bulk of Angola’s and Congo’s exports, damaging their prospects after crude prices plunged 55% since the beginning of June last year to below $50 a barrel. The price of iron ore, which makes up more than 40% of Mauritania’s exports, has dropped by almost a third in the past year. The three nations each shipped more than 45% of their exports in 2014 to China, data from the IMF shows. “For countries like Angola, which basically only has one commodity, there is a huge knock when prices fall and less oil is being exported to China,” Christie Viljoen at NKC African Economics, said.

“It’s a case of when things are good, it’s really good, but when it turns bad, it’s really bad.” Angola, Africa’s second-largest oil producer after Nigeria, has been forced to devalue its currency twice since June and has slashed its budget by a quarter following a slump in revenue. Congo’s fiscal deficit almost doubled to 8.5% of gross domestic product in 2014 from the previous year and in May Finance Minister Gilbert Ondongo cut $500 million of spending from the 2015 budget to bring it down to $4.5 billion. Reliance on a single commodity and exposure to one country for the bulk of exports is a double-whammy. China’s slowdown means weaker currencies and higher import prices for these African nations, which in turn feeds into more pressure on their exchange rates and a run down of central bank reserves, said Viljoen.

“If you are at the top of the list in terms of dependence on China and your economy is not well diversified, there are a bunch of negative things which can fall like dominoes,” he said. While South Africa is the continent’s single biggest exporter to China – with shipments totaling $45 billion in 2014 – its exports are more diversified and destined to a wider range of countries. China buys 37% of South Africa’s goods, followed by the European Union at 20%. Commodities such as gold, platinum and iron ore still make up the bulk of exports at just over half, though vehicle shipments have grown in importance to reach 13% of the total, according to data from the South African Revenue Service.

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Ambrose is confused.

Jeremy Corbyn’s QE For The People Is Exactly What The World May Soon Need (AEP)

There are many good reasons to gasp at Jeremy’s Corbyn’s planned assault on capital, but his enthusiasm for “People’s QE” is not one of them. Overt monetary financing of deficits – the technical term – is exactly what the world will need if the global economy tips into another recession with interest rates already at zero and debt ratios stretched to historic extremes. Governments that do not have such a contingency plan in place to combat a potential deflationary shock from East Asia should be hauled before their respective parliaments to account for their complacency. HSBC’s chief economist, Stephen King, argues such drastic measures may be our last resort in a “Titanic” world with few lifeboats left, if anything goes wrong. He is not alone in the City of London.

“A pervasive sense that the financial elites pulled a blinder – while austerity is for little people – explains in part why Mr Corbyn has suddenly stormed into the limelight, and why the US socialist Bernie Sanders has so upset the Democratic primaries” Jeremy Lawson, from Standard Life, gave his blessing to radical action this week, arguing central banks should be willing to fund fiscal stimulus directly, and even inject money “directly into household bank accounts” if need be. Mr Corbyn’s ideas are a variant of “helicopter money”, the term coined by Milton Friedman, the doyen of monetary orthodoxy, lest we forget. Friedman did not, of course, mean that banknotes should be dropped from the sky, though they could be in extremis, but rather that central banks have the means to create money to fund tax cuts, or to cover state spending, until the economy comes back to life.

We cannot revert to plain vanilla forms of quantitative easing at this stage. The various rounds of QE by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England after the Lehman crisis were assuredly better than nothing. They averted a depression. But little more can be extracted from pulling down long-term interest rates by a few more basis points. The trade-off between risk and reward has, in any case, turned negative. Much of the money has leaked into asset booms, greatly enriching the “haves”, with a painfully slow trickle-down to the rest of society. A pervasive sense that the financial elites pulled a blinder – while austerity is for little people – explains in part why Mr Corbyn has suddenly stormed into the limelight, and why the US socialist Bernie Sanders has so upset the Democratic primaries.

This is not a criticism of the Anglo-Saxon central banks. The public would not have accepted avant-garde QE or helicopter money at the time. The Fed’s Ben Bernanke faced impeachment calls by hard-liners in Congress even as it was. He did what was humanly possible. Yet if we have to do QE again – and right now the US and the UK are preparing to tighten, so it is not imminent – it would surely be better to inject the money directly into the veins of the real economy.

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Journalists from BBC, El Pais, Die Zeit, RT and more. In total nearly 400 individuals from France, Greece, Israel, Spain, Italy, USA, Russia, Poland, Switzerland, Germany, the UK and several other countries..

Ukraine Bans Journalists Who ‘Threaten National Interests’ From Country (Guardian)

President Petro Poroshenko has banned two BBC correspondents from Ukraine along with many Russian journalists and public figures. The long-serving BBC Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg and producer Emma Wells have been barred from entering the country, according to a list published on the presidential website on Wednesday. The decree says those listed were banned for one year for being a “threat to national interests” or promoting “terrorist activities”. BBC cameraman Anton Chicherov was also banned, along with Spanish journalists Antonio Pampliega and Ángel Sastre, who went missing, presumed kidnapped, in Syria in July. The list targeted people involved in Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the aggression in eastern Ukraine, Poroshenko said, referring to the conflict with Russia-backed rebels that has continued in certain hotspots this year despite a February ceasefire.

Andrew Roy, the BBC’s foreign editor, said: “This is a shameful attack on media freedom. These sanctions are completely inappropriate and inexplicable measures to take against BBC journalists who are reporting the situation in Ukraine impartially and objectively and we call on the Ukrainian government to remove their names from this list immediately.’ The reason for the BBC correspondents’ ban was not clear, but media coverage of the conflict with the rebels – whom the authorities and local media often call “terrorists” – has been a sensitive subject. Russian television has covered the Ukrainian crisis in a negative light, frequently referring to the new Kiev government as a “fascist junta”, while international media has focused on civilian casualties and the use of cluster munitions in populated areas by both sides.

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One moment of clarity.

New Zealand Blocks Farm Purchase By Chinese Firm (BBC)

New Zealand’s government has blocked the $56m (£36m) purchase of a local farm by Chinese firm Shanghai Pengxin. The government said it was not satisfied that the sale of the Lochinver farm would be of substantial benefit to the country, which is a key requirement for a big land purchase. The surprise move comes after the body that oversees bids for sensitive assets in New Zealand had approved the sale. There have been growing concerns about foreign land ownership in New Zealand. Those fears were stoked after Shanghai Pengxin New Zealand, which is a unit of the Chinese parent firm Shanghai Pengxin, bought 16 dairy farms in the country in 2011. China is New Zealand’s biggest market for many dairy and meat products. Dairy products are also New Zealand’s biggest export.

The Chinese firm said in a statement that it was “surprised and extremely disappointed with the decision and will be considering our options”. The 13,800-hectare Lochinver farm is located in North Island and is used to breed sheep, as well as cattle for beef and dairy products. The Chinese government has encouraged its companies to look to overseas markets to meet the demands of its growing consumer class. Stevenson Group, the company selling the farm, said it was also disappointed by the outcome after a 14-month process. “We are unclear as to why this property is different to the many others that have been approved through the Overseas Investment Office process, given the obvious benefits both to the farm and to Stevenson Group,” it said in a statement.

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El Niño.

Look Out New Zealand, Here Comes Another Act of God (Bloomberg)

As if a sharp fall in the price of milk, New Zealand’s biggest export, wasn’t bad enough, the country is now bracing for a summer drought that could further hurt farmers and raise the risk of recession. The most severe El Nino weather pattern in at least 18 years is brewing and set to bring dry winds and below-average rainfall to the South Pacific nation in the months ahead. That will play havoc with dairy farmers and other agricultural producers that together account for a third of New Zealand’s export earnings. While no economists are yet forecasting a recession, central bank Governor Graeme Wheeler last week said if the El Nino is severe and continues into the middle of 2016, a contraction could be the result. The National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research says soil moisture levels are already falling in eastern regions and there is an elevated risk of drought later in the summer amid signs the weather event may be the worst since 1998.

New Zealand’s economy, while among the world’s most developed, is particularly vulnerable to nature turning against it. The country suffered its most recent recession in 2010 after an earthquake struck the city of Christchurch, while the two previous economic contractions in 2008 and 1998 coincided with severe droughts and slumps in financial market sentiment. Agriculture and food processing industries make up about 9% of the nation’s GDP, making the economy sensitive to climate swings and global demand. “Over history, to get into recession we need to have multiple shocks,” said Nathan Penny, an economist at ASB Bank Ltd. in Auckland. “A drought makes us vulnerable, and if we got a drought plus say a shock from China then that would make a recession quite possible.”

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Jul 112015
 
 July 11, 2015  Posted by at 10:57 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  3 Responses »


Jack Delano Mother of three, wiper at the roundhouse. Chicago & North Western R.R.” 1943

Greece Needs $83 Billion in Fresh Funding (WSJ)
Several Eurozone Parliaments To Vote On New Greek Debt Deal (AFP)
Crippled Greece Yields To Overwhelming Power As Deal Looms (AEP)
Greeks Wonder Whether Tsipras Folded or Restored Dignity (NY Times)
OXI-Dation: Has Greece Missed Its Chance To Create A Healthier Europe? (Evel)
Half-Century of European Integration at Stake in Greece Meeting (Bloomberg)
Is A Two-Tiered Europe What’s Next After Greece? (Reuters)
Germany Won’t Spare Greek Pain – It Has An Interest In Breaking Us (Yanis Varoufakis)
Overwhelming Majority Of Greeks Want To Keep Euro (Reuters)
It’s All Greek To Me: The Politics Of Syriza And The Troika (Steve Keen)
Putin Calls US Debt ‘Serious Problem’ as He Defends Greece (Bloomberg)
Greek Deal In Sight As Germany Bows To Huge Global Pressure For Debt Relief (AEP)
France Takes Greece’s Side Against Germany (Crook)
Greek Cash Crunch Goes to Market (NY Times)
Refugees Stuck On Greek Border Have Nothing Left To Lose (Guardian)
Will We Crash Again? -FT/Alphaville Presentation- (Steve Keen)
The Goldman Sachs Banker Who Got Rich Getting Greece Into The Euro (Armitage)
Goldman Could Be Sued For Helping Greece Hide Debts When It Joined Euro (Ind.)
Obama Pushes Trade Partners To Add Drug Rules He Opposes In US (Bloomberg)
Special Investigation: Auckland House Prices (NZ Herald)
Auckland Housing: ‘We’ve Got Chinese Buyers’ (NZ Herald)

Merkel’s nightmare.

Greece Needs $83 Billion in Fresh Funding (WSJ)

Greece will need €74 billion ($82.55 billion) in fresh funding, the three institutions overseeing the eurozone bailout program said in their assessment of the country’s request for a new aid package, according to three European officials. The €74 billion could include €16 billion from the IMF, should the Washington-based institution decide to participate in the new aid program, the officials said. A fourth official said some funding could come from Greece raising money on debt markets. Two officials said the institutions found Greece’s proposals for new overhauls and budget cuts to be a basis for negotiating a new bailout “under certain conditions.”

The development indicates some of the struggles that could lie ahead this weekend, when eurozone finance ministers and leaders meet to decide on how much money they are willing to commit to keeping Greece in their currency union. The institutions’ assessment was sent to eurozone finance ministries Saturday morning. In the early hours on Saturday, Greece’s Parliament passed the new proposal, which included cuts to pensions and tax increases, with the backing of 251 out of 300 lawmakers. The vote was supported by center-right and center-left opposition parties, while 17 lawmakers from Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s own left-wing Syriza party failed to support their own government, with two voting against Mr. Tsipras and others abstaining or staying absent.

Eurozone finance ministers are set to meet Saturday to decide how much more money and political capital they are prepared to spend on keeping the flailing country afloat. Only unanimous agreement on the amount of new rescue loans and debt relief to grant Athens will allow the country to avoid full-on bankruptcy and Greek banks to reopen Monday with euros in their tills. Some European officials cautioned that even a broad deal this weekend could collapse later once it comes to nailing down the details and implementing the new measures. The two sides “might end up in agreement in principle,” said one official. “But whether [a bailout] program [is] ever accepted or money disbursed is another thing.”

Greece’s international creditors told national finance ministries early Saturday that they believe the country is eligible for another support program, according to a European official. An official familiar with those talks said new financing needs had been the most divisive issue during that quality check.

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Could still be prickly.

Several Eurozone Parliaments To Vote On New Greek Debt Deal (AFP)

If Greece and its European partners reach a deal on a third aid programme on Sunday, it will still have to be approved by at least eight different national parliaments. And the German Bundestag will even get to vote on it twice. If in most countries, despite certain grumblings, approval of the deal is not really in any doubt, the matter is more complicated in countries such as Slovakia and Latvia. And opposition would grow if the deal includes a write-down of Greece’s debt. In the Netherlands, lawmakers will decide themselves whether to hold a vote or not. The Irish government doesn’t have to ask for parliamentary approval, but it could choose to seek lawmakers’ backing. A majority would near-certain given its majority in the assembly.

The parliaments of Belgium, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Lithuania, Italy, Spain and Portugal will not hold a vote. Neither will the parliaments in Malta or Slovenia, as long as the total financial aid to Greece does not increase. That is unlikely to be the case, if the money comes from the European Stability Mechanism, which euro members paid into in 2012. Slovenian lawmakers will, however, vote if there is some write-off of Greece’s debt. Slovenia has the largest exposure to Greek debt in the euro area as a proportion of its GDP, so parliament may be difficult to convince.

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“The most humiliating and unbearable choice is an agreement that will surrender and loot our country and subjugate our people..”

Crippled Greece Yields To Overwhelming Power As Deal Looms (AEP)

Greece’s Left-wing Syriza government has agreed to draconian austerity terms rejected by the Greek people in a landslide referendum just five days ago, capping one of the most bizarre political episodes of modern times. Prime minister Alexis Tspiras sought to put the best face on a painful climbdown, recoiling from a traumatic fight that would have led to Greece’s ejection from the euro as soon as Monday. He implicitly recognised that the strain of capital controls and economic collapse has been too much to bear. “We are confronted with crucial decisions. We got a mandate to bring a better deal than the ultimatum that the Eurogroup gave us, but we weren’t given a mandate to take Greece out of the eurozone,” he said.

Hopes for a breakthrough set off euphoria across Europe’s stock and bond markets, though Greece still has to face an emergency meeting of Eurogroup ministers on Saturday, and probably a full-dress summit of the EU’s 28 leaders on Sunday. A top Greek banker close to the talks said there is now a “90pc chance” of clinching a deal, thanks both to intervention behind the scenes by a team from the French treasury and to aggressive diplomacy by Washington. Inflows of tourist cash means that there is still €2.75bn of liquidity available, enough to keep ATM machines stocked until Monday night. Greeks will be able to withdraw the daily allowance of €60. Pensioners will continue to draw €120 a week. “We are preparing to open up branches for normal banking services next week. Capital controls will last for a while but not for as long as in Cyprus. The situation is very fluid but we don’t think we will need a major recapitalisation of the banks,” said the source.

An estimated €40bn of money stashed in “mattresses” should flow back into deposits as confidence returns. One or two of the weaker banks may need a capital boost of €10bn to €15bn, involving a potential “bail-in” of savings above the insured threshold of €100,000. Any deal almost certainly means the European Central Bank will lift its freeze on emergency liquidity for the Greek financial system as soon as Monday, entirely changing the picture. Syriza accuses the ECB of deploying “liquidity asphyxiation” to bring a rebel democracy to its knees. The ECB freeze has been a controversial political and legal move – given the bank’s treaty obligations to uphold financial stability – and is likely to be dissected by historians for years to come.

A final deal to end the long-running saga is still not certain. The outcome depends on how much debt relief the creditor powers are willing to offer, and whether it is a contractual obligation written in stone or merely a vague promise for the future. Yet the broad outlines are taking shape after Syriza agreed to three more years of fiscal tightening, with deep pension cuts and tax rises, and a raft of “neo-liberal” reform measures that breach almost all the party’s original red lines. Panagiotis Lafazanis, head of Syriza’s Left Platform, protested bitterly, saying it would be better for Greece to restore sovereign self-government and return to the drachma. “The most humiliating and unbearable choice is an agreement that will surrender and loot our country and subjugate our people,” he said.

Party insiders did not hide their disgust, though Mr Tsipras managed to quell a full-scale mutiny. “It is a total capitulation. We never had a ‘Plan B’ for what to do if the ECB cuts off liquidity and the creditors simply destroyed our country, which is what they are doing,” said one Syriza veteran. “We thought that when the time comes, Europe would blink, but that is not what happened. It should have been clear since April that the markets were not going to react to Grexit.” Yanis Varoufakis, the former finance minister, said he would back his successor and close friend, Euclid Tsakalotos, but only for the next two days. “I will reserve my judgment. I have serious doubts as to whether the creditors will really sign on the dotted line and offer substantive debt relief. My fear is that they will make all the right noises, but then fail to follow through, as in 2012,” he told The Telegraph.

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Both.

Greeks Wonder Whether Tsipras Folded or Restored Dignity (NY Times)

Did Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras betray his principles and cave in to Greece’s creditors? Or did he fight valiantly and succeed in establishing that his nation’s debt load is not sustainable and has to be reduced? Those were the questions being asked across Greece on Friday in the wake of Mr. Tsipras’s abrupt decision to give the creditors nearly all of what they have sought throughout the long and contentious negotiations over keeping Greece afloat. From the halls of Parliament to streets filled with people who have suffered through five years of severe economic hardship, Greeks were struggling to process the news, gird themselves for further budget cuts and assess what they had gotten for their efforts to stand against the European orthodoxy.

Some Greeks said they felt betrayed by what they saw as a quick about face. Hundreds of people marched in Athens on Friday night in a rally organized by the Communist Party to protest the reversal of the “no” vote in Sunday’s referendum. A Twitter trend was formed under the hashtag #ExplainNoToTsipras, with some wondering what the point of the referendum was. “And this whole time I thought it was Merkel who was bluffing,” one user wrote, referring to the expectation that Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany would blink first in the showdown with Mr. Tsipras. In Parliament, opposition parties took to the floor to excoriate Mr. Tsipras’s latest proposals as even worse than those that Greeks rejected in the referendum.

They chided him as naïve for thinking that he would get a better deal from the creditors than the opposition parties had when they ran the country – though early Saturday lawmakers did vote to approve his new package of proposals. “We have to vote yes,” said Harry Theoharis, a member of the new To Potami centrist party. “It’s a bad deal, but it’s this deal or catastrophe.” Evangelos Venizelos, the former leader of Greece’s Socialist Party, even asked Mr. Tsipras’s finance minister whether he would, in effect, apologize for past statements suggesting that the previous government had been incompetent. Early in the day, the government released a photograph of Mr. Tsipras smiling and receiving a standing ovation after briefing members of his Syriza Party on the state of his negotiations with European officials.

But later, on the chamber floor, one Syriza member, Rachel Makri, took the microphone to criticize the new deal and announce that she would not vote for it. “Under no circumstances will I approve proposals that align with the lenders by 80%,” she said. Ms. Makri added that the proposals were what 60% of voters on Sunday had rejected. The mandate from the referendum, she said, would not allow reductions in pensions, one of the concessions made by Mr. Tsipras.

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Love the word choice.

OXI-Dation: Has Greece Missed Its Chance To Create A Healthier Europe? (Evel)

Oxidation can have destructive effects, like rusting. But it’s a process that has great benefits too: it lowers the risk of cancer, improves metabolism, increases the production of energy, and helps weight loss. Could the Greek people’s Oxi vote and its effect on the EU have healthy qualities too? Not likely now, given Syriza’s decision to perform a backflip: the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is presenting a memorandum to the Greek parliament that is similar, if not harsher, to the one rejected in the referendum. I’ve heard a lot of odd things in the streets of Athens recently. Foremost among these is the view that we’re heading for an imminent Grexit. We see now that the chances of this happening are about as great as a meteorite hitting New York City tomorrow morning.

I have even wagered a souvlaki (extra onions, no sauce) with a friend, another teacher at the high school where I work, that a new memorandum will soon be signed between Greece’s “radical left” Syriza government and the EU-ECB-IMF troika. All along I’ve maintained Syriza will perform a backflip. As of course, will the establishment in Berlin, Brussels, Frankfurt, and New York. After all, who needs a Grexit? Do German and French banks want a Lehman Brothers-style domino effect financial disaster? Is China interested in seeing Greece forced out of the eurozone? Has the Red Dragon’s huge China Ocean Shipping Company – Cosco – leased the gateway to Europe only to find that the port of Piraeus is no longer in the eurozone? Russia, embattled and politically isolated with tremendous problems of its own?

Or does the United States want Greece out of the EU, with a potentially tempestuous geopolitical seachange at the crossroads of three continents? President Barack Obama and IMF boss Christine Lagarde do not appear to. Even Germany is showing greater “flexibility”. And this makes sense. How could Angela Merkel and her Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble be such blind eurocrats as to be motived only by the thirst for revenge — to punish the Greek voters who stubbornly asserted their right to adopt polices incompatible with their obligation as a member of the eurozone?

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Integration was killed in the 5 month negotiation.

Half-Century of European Integration at Stake in Greece Meeting (Bloomberg)

For European leaders gathering in Brussels Sunday to find a way to keep Greece in the euro, the credibility of a half-century of economic and political unification is on the line. Failing to find a solution to Greece’s five-year debt crisis would be arguably the greatest setback in the history of what proponents call “the European project.” Europe’s integration, born in the aftermath of World War II, was always designed to be permanent and irrevocable, the better to make future conflict impossible. A so-called Grexit would dramatically undermine those principles. Even as a proposed deal has taken shape, the EU’s cohesion is under assault on multiple fronts. “This crisis, it seems to me, is calling into question all that the European project has achieved,” said Giles Merritt, secretary general of the Brussels research institute Friends of Europe.

The Greek turmoil “has really showed us where all the weaknesses lie,” he said. In the U.K., Prime Minister David Cameron has promised a referendum on membership in response to relentless criticism of the EU by members of his own Conservative Party and much of the media. In France, Italy, and Spain, populist parties hostile to integration are gaining increasing support, some of them questioning the single currency as well as the pro-European consensus that’s dominated their politics for decades. The leaders of all 28 EU states will try to decide this weekend whether to grant Europe’s most indebted country a new bailout in exchange for economic reforms and spending cuts. France is trying to broker a compromise between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s left-wing government and more hawkish countries like Germany and the Netherlands.

Investors were hailing the possibility of avoiding a breakdown of the most fundamental principle of the European project: its irreversibility. The first sentence of the Treaty of Rome, the 1957 founding document of what is now the EU, described its intent to “lay the foundations of an ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe.” As the EU grew to become the world’s largest trade bloc and granted citizens the right to work in every member state, leaders differed widely over how far and fast integration should proceed. The toughest question: whether it should focus on political union or primarily on trade and economics.

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Isn’t that what we already see? Not as if all have equal votes.

Is A Two-Tiered Europe What’s Next After Greece? (Reuters)

The continuing euro crisis is providing Europe with some tough Greek lessons. First, Europe must avoid overreach. What was politically feasible on the eve of monetary union in the late 1990s is proving less economically sustainable today. Greece should never have been admitted to the euro in 2001. It did not qualify. The numbers were largely fabricated. By 2004, the Greek government confessed its budget deficit was 3.8%, not the statutory 3% required for admission. The euro zone refused to question Greece’s membership, though. This was compounded by years of economic profligacy and endemic political corruption. In addition, a feeding frenzy ensued through an influx of short-term money seeking big profits and readily available credit. Since the EU’s inception, the prospect of membership has carried enormous leverage.

After all, if aspiring member states were able to meet European standards – often achieved by instituting sweeping economic and political reforms – they would win a ticket to first-world status. The inclusion of Spain, Portugal and Greece in the 1980s, and the post-Cold War accession of former communist states of Central and Eastern Europe, were history in the making. The vision of modern Europe’s founding fathers, including German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, who rebuilt his country into a powerful state after World War Two, and Jean Monnet, the key economic architect of European unity, was becoming a reality. The current woes, however, prove even Europe has its limits. The EU must now be more realistic about its ability to deliver on and manage expectations.

The euro zone needs to get its existing house in order and streamline its institutions. Any talk of further expansion must be placed on hold for the foreseeable future – with the exception of the western Balkans. The security factor still looms large there, particularly in the states of former Yugoslavia. More than 20 people died in Macedonia in May after violence broke out between government forces and an ethnic Albanian paramilitary group. The incident sparked fears of renewed ethnic conflict in the region. Even in pursuit of geopolitical aims, however, the EU must insist on full compliance with accession standards.

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“..accept the bailout’s “logic” and drop any demands for debt restructuring or your loan agreement will “crash” – the unsaid repercussion being that Greece’s banks would be boarded up.”

Germany Won’t Spare Greek Pain – It Has An Interest In Breaking Us (Yanis Varoufakis)

Greece’s financial drama has dominated the headlines for five years for one reason: the stubborn refusal of our creditors to offer essential debt relief. Why, against common sense, against the IMF’s verdict and against the everyday practices of bankers facing stressed debtors, do they resist a debt restructure? The answer cannot be found in economics because it resides deep in Europe’s labyrinthine politics. In 2010, the Greek state became insolvent. Two options consistent with continuing membership of the eurozone presented themselves: the sensible one, that any decent banker would recommend – restructuring the debt and reforming the economy; and the toxic option – extending new loans to a bankrupt entity while pretending that it remains solvent.

Official Europe chose the second option, putting the bailing out of French and German banks exposed to Greek public debt above Greece’s socioeconomic viability. A debt restructure would have implied losses for the bankers on their Greek debt holdings. Keen to avoid confessing to parliaments that taxpayers would have to pay again for the banks by means of unsustainable new loans, EU officials presented the Greek state’s insolvency as a problem of illiquidity, and justified the “bailout” as a case of “solidarity” with the Greeks. To frame the cynical transfer of irretrievable private losses on to the shoulders of taxpayers as an exercise in “tough love”, record austerity was imposed on Greece, whose national income, in turn – from which new and old debts had to be repaid – diminished by more than a quarter.

It takes the mathematical expertise of a smart eight-year-old to know that this process could not end well. Once the sordid operation was complete, Europe had automatically acquired another reason for refusing to discuss debt restructuring: it would now hit the pockets of European citizens! And so increasing doses of austerity were administered while the debt grew larger, forcing creditors to extend more loans in exchange for even more austerity. Our government was elected on a mandate to end this doom loop; to demand debt restructuring and an end to crippling austerity. Negotiations have reached their much publicised impasse for a simple reason: our creditors continue to rule out any tangible debt restructuring while insisting that our unpayable debt be repaid “parametrically” by the weakest of Greeks, their children and their grandchildren.

In my first week as minister for finance I was visited by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup (the eurozone finance ministers), who put a stark choice to me: accept the bailout’s “logic” and drop any demands for debt restructuring or your loan agreement will “crash” – the unsaid repercussion being that Greece’s banks would be boarded up.

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Who did the polling?

Overwhelming Majority Of Greeks Want To Keep Euro (Reuters)

A total of 84% of Greeks want to keep the euro, an opinion poll released on Friday showed, with just 12% favoring a return to the drachma, as the country races to clinch a cash-for-reforms deal with its creditors. The poll by Metron Analysis for Parapolitika newspaper showed that although the overwhelming majority of those polled want to remain in the single currency, 55% said it was the right choice to vote ‘No’ in last weekend’s referendum on tough austerity measures.

SYRIZA maintained a commanding lead over the opposition conservatives with 45.6% of Greeks saying they would vote for the leftist party of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras were there to be parliamentary polls, up from the 36.3% the party garnered in January’s election. The center-right New Democracy has seen its support drop from 27.8% to 22.7%. It was not immediately clear when the poll was conducted.

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Steve’s dark view.

It’s All Greek To Me: The Politics Of Syriza And The Troika (Steve Keen)

I have to admit that I was flummoxed by the political developments in Greece this week. After winning a referendum based on rejecting the Troika’s terms, Tsirpas capitulated to those same terms—if anything, to somewhat harsher terms—less than a week later. I have given up believing that Syriza was executing a straightforward political strategy—negotiate to get less extreme conditions plus some debt relief—and can now see only 4 other interpretations:
• One of two Byzantine political strategies;
• Absolutely no strategy and chaos that appears Byzantine; or
• They were broken by the EU and have capitulated.

The Troika’s strategy, on the other hand, is pretty straightforward to interpret: an intention to either break Syriza or (preferably) force them out to office, to be replaced by a more compliant party; and an imposition of austerity for both moral reasons, and because, as Ordo-Liberals, they actually think that hard work and reform are all that are needed. Interpreting what’s going on with Syriza is only of peripheral interest: unless they do something absolutely stunning, like default on all their debts and introduce the Drachma overnight, what happens in Greece will be determined by the Troika. So I’m going to address those who support the Troika’s approach first with a plea based on a medical analogy.

Schaeuble’s diagnosis is that market correction of a mis-pricing of Greek risk was the cause of the crisis, and to end it Greece must regain the trust of the international community by undertaking serious reforms. Spreads will fall, and growth will occur, once these reforms are in place. Let’s assume that is correct. What is then being undertaken on Greece is like an emergency medical procedure, from which the patient is expected to emerge cured and stronger. This medical operation analogy can be carried further: when you are undertaking surgery on a patient, what do you do to their vital physical systems? You anaesthetise their brains and nervous systems so that they don’t feel the pain, and you give them an ongoing blood transfusions to make up for the blood lost during the operation.

Is this how the Troika’s program is being administered? It would be, if the huge changes to legal and taxation and subsidy and workplace and privatisation rules were accompanied by allowing a substantial government deficit. The cash flow from the deficit would soften the blow on Greek businesses and societies as they made the painful transition from rules befitting a patronage state across to those of an efficient, modern society.

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“Russia, of course, is able to offer help to its partners regardless of today’s difficulties with the economy..”

Putin Calls US Debt ‘Serious Problem’ as He Defends Greece (Bloomberg)

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of dangers to the global economy from U.S. borrowing while saying Greece isn’t solely to blame for its debt crisis. “It’s a serious problem not just for the United States but for the whole world economy,” Putin told reporters Friday in the Russian city of Ufa in response to a question on the prospects of the biggest developing nations. “Debt exceeds gross domestic product there.” Putin said he’s concerned about Greece and hopes its crisis will be resolved soon, reiterating that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras hasn’t asked him for financial aid. Even so, he said Russia has the resources to help its partners. Putin is battling his own economic woes after sanctions over Ukraine and a drop in oil prices triggered Russia’s first recession in six years.

This isn’t the first time the Russian leader has attacked U.S. economic policy: he’s previously derided the “dollar monopoly” that allows the U.S. to act like a “parasite” on the global economy. The ruble is the second-worst performer against the dollar in the past year among more than 150 global currencies tracked by Bloomberg, with a 40% dive. Russia’s central bank resumed purchases of foreign-currency assets in May, planning purchases of $100 million to $200 million a day to replenish reserves. The U.S. ratio of government debt to GDP will fall to 104% in 2018 from 105% in 2014, the IMF predicts. Russia drained its foreign-currency stockpiles as fighting raged in Ukraine and global energy prices plunged. That hasn’t left the government in a position where it can’t assist its allies, according to Putin.

Russian reserves were $359.6 billion as of July 3. “Russia, of course, is able to offer help to its partners regardless of today’s difficulties with the economy,” he said after a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. “We’re helping some countries.” Putin said Russia and Greece, both of which are majority Orthodox Christian, have a special relationship. Being a euro member, the government in Athens is unable to take measures such as devaluation to help revive its economy, according to Putin. “Greece is an EU country and within its obligations is conducting rather difficult negotiations with its partners,” he said. “Mr. Tsipras hasn’t approached us regarding aid. And that’s generally understandable because the numbers are big and we know what’s at stake.”

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Let’s see what Bundestag does.

Greek Deal In Sight As Germany Bows To Huge Global Pressure For Debt Relief (AEP)

Germany is at last bowing to pressure as a chorus of countries and key institutions demand debt relief for Greece, a shift that could break the five-month stalemate and avert a potentially disastrous rupture of monetary union at this Sunday’s last-ditch summit. In a highly significant move, the European Council has called on both sides to make major concessions, insisting that the creditor powers must do their part as the radical Syriza government puts forward a new raft of proposals on economic reforms before a deadline expires tonight. “The realistic proposal from Greece will have to be matched by an equally realistic proposal on debt sustainability from the creditors,” said Donald Tusk, the European Council president.

This is the first time Europe’s institutions have acknowledged clearly that Greece’s public debt – 180pc of GDP – can never be repaid and that no lasting solution can be found until the boil is lanced. Any such deal would give Greek premier Alexis Tspiras a prize to take back to the Greek people after they voted by 61pc to 39pc to reject austerity demands in a landslide referendum last weekend. While he would still have to deliver on tough reforms and breach key red lines, a debt restructuring of sufficient scale would probably be enough to clinch a deal, and allow him to return to Athens as a conquering hero. The Greek parliament is due to vote to ratify the measures on Friday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “a classic haircut” is out of the question, but tacitly opened the door to other forms debt restructuring, conceding that it had already been done in 2012 by stretching out maturities.

The contours of a deal on Sunday are starting to emerge. Syriza has requested a three-year package of loans from the eurozone bail-out fund (ESM) – perhaps worth as much as €60bn – and is reportedly ready give ground on tax rises and pension cuts. Germany’s subtle shift in position comes as the United States, France, and Italy joined in a united call for debt relief, buttressed by a crescendo of emphatic statements by Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF. “Greece is clearly in a situation of acute crisis, which needs to be addressed seriously and promptly. We remain fully engaged in order to find a solution to restore stability, growth and debt sustainability,” said Ms Lagarde.

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Far too late.

France Takes Greece’s Side Against Germany (Crook)

You can’t exaggerate the importance of France’s decision to align itself with Greece before this weekend’s crisis meetings. As Wolfgang Munchau correctly notes in the Financial Times, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has finally succeeded in dividing the creditors. A split between Germany and France, no less, and on an issue as momentous as this – on the course of the entire European project – isn’t just any division. Ignore all the expressions of bewilderment over Tsipras’s acceptance of terms he and his country just roundly rejected. That’s all beside the point. He had already capitulated – weeks ago – on the larger part of the fiscal obligations in the creditors’ last offer. He was holding out for a commitment to debt relief now, rather than talks about it later.

That’s the condition he’s dropped, and rightly, because a consensus has finally emerged that debt relief, one way or another, will follow if some kind of deal is done. In return, he’s secured France as an ally against Germany. That’s a pretty good deal for Greece. The much more consequential U-turn is in Paris. Suddenly, Tsipras’s promises on fiscal policy are “serious, credible,” according to President Francois Hollande. In truth, of course, they are exactly as serious and credible as they have been for the past five months. Even if Tsipras becomes a born-again fiscal conservative and actually tries to keep these promises, he’ll fail – and everybody knows it. A tightening of fiscal policy as the economy falls further into recession is anti-growth and fiscally counterproductive. Those primary-surplus targets that the creditors want carved in stone are almost impossible to hit.

The crucial thing about the new Greek proposals is not that they’re significantly different from the last set, but that French officials helped to shape them. In this long and convoluted saga, that’s a stunning development. Instead of the usual pre-emptive dismissal from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble – saying the new offer has nothing new, is worthless, and what do you expect from the Greeks? – we have a pre-emptive declaration of breakthrough from Hollande. This by no means guarantees success. Certainly, the chances of a genuinely good outcome – softer fiscal targets, prompt agreement on debt relief, and a fully functioning lender of last resort – are still vanishingly small.

But the likelihood of a bad agreement, one that keeps Greece in the euro system and lets its banks reopen without resolving the underlying problems, has surged. I maintain that a bad agreement of that kind is somewhat better than none, and since those sad alternatives are all the EU seems able to contemplate, I suppose I shouldn’t complain. The question for France is, what took you so long? If Hollande had intervened this forcefully five months ago, the savings for European taxpayers, to say nothing of Greece’s citizens, would have been colossal. The question for Berlin is, how much does your alliance with Paris still matter to you?

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Behind the obvious.

Greek Cash Crunch Goes to Market (NY Times)

Athens’s Ichthyoskales fish auction is the largest in Greece, but capital controls and bank closings have hurt its ability to function.

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If the EU doesn’t move now, it’ll will have a nightmare on its hands. And blood.

Refugees Stuck On Greek Border Have Nothing Left To Lose (Guardian)

In a dusty field that straddles the Greek-Macedonian border, quite where one country ends and the other begins is not entirely clear. But several Macedonian soldiers in the area are very certain. “Get back,” one shouts through the darkness, herding hundreds of refugees a couple of metres further south from where they stood a moment ago. “Get back to the Greek border.” The crowds shuffle briefly backwards, and the soldiers seem satisfied. “Please,” a Syrian mother calls back, a toddler in her arms. “We are a family. Where should we go now?” It is a filthy spot, filled with the detritus of past travellers. Surrounded by farmland, the only lighting comes from a nearby train track, and the only bedding is the sand the woman stands on.

“You must sleep here,” the Macedonian replies. It is an alarming order – not just for these refugees, who have walked 40 miles to reach this point, but for the people of the country they have just crossed. Greece has received nearly 80,000 refugees this year, a record figure that has seen it overtake Italy as the primary migrant gateway to Europe. Migrants are arriving in such high numbers by dinghy from Turkey that the authorities – already battling an economic crisis – cannot feed, house, or process their paperwork fast enough, leading to bottlenecks on the Greek islands. One factor helping relieve the pressure was the constant stream of refugees out the other side of Greece, near the northern border town of Idomeni, into Macedonia.

But in the past fortnight, the Macedonian government has begun to regulate the flow. Until a few days ago the route had been blocked for a whole week – raising the spectre of a refugee bottleneck at both ends of Greece, at a time when the country is struggling to support its own citizens, let alone a record wave of refugees. “At a certain point there were more than 2,000 waiting there,” says Stathis Kyroussis, head of mission for MSF, one of the few aid groups helping migrants in this remote area. “People started getting angry, and big groups of two or three hundred tried to force their way through.” By his account, Macedonian soldiers had to use their truncheons to maintain order, and fired in the air to keep people back. “This fact of sealing the border,” says Kyroussis, “coupled with the fact that the flows from the island have really exploded, means that we’ve had many more people coming to Idomeni, and not many passing through.”

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Crystal clear: we will and must China within 1-2 years. Private debt says it all.

Will We Crash Again? -FT/Alphaville Presentation- (Steve Keen)

This is the talk I gave at the FT/Alphaville conference in London last week. A number of people asked me to send the PPT to them, and I got buried in other work and the emails are long lost in my Gmail queue. My apologies to those correspondents to whom I haven’t replied directly.

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Your country can be proud of you, lady.

The Goldman Sachs Banker Who Got Rich Getting Greece Into The Euro (Armitage)

If you thought the Goldman Sachs banker who did the deal to get Greece into the euro might have been chased out of the City of London, think again. Antigone Loudiadis, more widely known as “Addy”, has been richly rewarded by the bank for her dealmaking prowess and now sits atop one of Europe’s fastest growing insurance companies, Rothesay Life. The 52-year-old, who lives with her family in a vast stucco house in west London, was one of the brightest stars in Goldman’s Fleet Street headquarters. While she lists her nationality as Greek, her education was as English as can be. Schooled at Cheltenham Ladies’ College, she went on to Oxford University before joining JPMorgan, and then Goldman, gaining partner status in 2000.

Colleagues describe her as “fiercely clever”, although by some accounts, she was simply fierce. It is said some of her staff would pretend to be on the phone when she walked past them in the office to avoid her infamous rollockings. Although her Continental twang remains hard to place, her fluency in Greek and strong connections in the country were instrumental in winning the lucrative mandate to create the financial deals that would flatter the country’s debts. Christoforos Sardelis, former boss of Greece’s Debt Management Agency who worked on the trades with her, told Bloomberg she was “very professional – a little bit aggressive as is everyone at Goldman Sachs”. But she was trusted by the government which, it should be remembered, was far more right wing than the Syriza party.

What it most liked about her seems to be the way she could magic away the country’s dismal financial position. The trade she came up with is reported to have made the bank hundreds of millions of dollars, although only Goldman knows the true figure. Reports suggest she was paid up to $12m a year by the time she was named co-head of the investment banking group. Not that it wasn’t a stressful job. In an interview in 2005 she told the Wall Street Journal she was “your typical Type A workaholic smoker” with a “stressful schedule”.

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Could.

Goldman Could Be Sued For Helping Greece Hide Debts When It Joined Euro (Ind.)

Goldman Sachs faces the prospect of potential legal action from Greece over the complex financial deals in 2001 that many blame for its subsequent debt crisis. A leading adviser to debt-riven countries has offered to help Athens recover some of the vast profits made by the investment bank. The Independent has learnt that a former Goldman banker, who has advised indebted governments on recovering losses made from complex transactions with banks, has written to the Greek government to advise that it has a chance of clawing back some of the hundreds of millions of dollars it paid Goldman to secure its position in the single currency. The development came as Greece edged towards a last-minute deal with its creditors which will keep it from crashing out of the single currency.

Goldman Sachs is said to have made as much as $500m from the transactions known as “swaps”. It denies that figure but declines to say what the correct one is. The banker who stitched it together, Oxford-educated Antigone Loudiadis, was reportedly paid up to $12m in the year of the deal. Now Jaber George Jabbour, who formerly designed swaps at Goldman, has told the Greek government in a formal letter that it could “right historical wrongs as part of [its] plan to reduce Greece’s debt”. Mr Jabbour successfully assisted Portugal in renegotiating complex trades naively done with London banks during the financial crisis. His work helped trigger a parliamentary inquiry and cost many senior officials and politicians their jobs. It also triggered major compensation payments by banks to the Portuguese taxpayer.

Mr Jabbour, who now runs Ethos Capital Advisors, has also helped expose other cases including allegations against Goldman Sachs and Société Générale over their dealings with Libya relating to financial transactions that left the country’s taxpayers billions of dollars out of pocket. Both banks deny wrongdoing. Based on publicly available information, he believes the size of the profit Goldman made on the transactions was unreasonable. Scrutiny and analysis of the documents and email exchanges could give Greece grounds to seek compensation and assess if the deals were executed for the sole purpose of concealing the country’s debts.

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Typical?!

Obama Pushes Trade Partners To Add Drug Rules He Opposes In US (Bloomberg)

The Obama administration is caught in a trap as it tries to bring home a trade deal with its Pacific Rim partners. Some of the chief beneficiaries may be big drug companies like Novartis, Roche Holding, and Pfizer while the losers could be consumers in both the U.S. and the region. The administration says it’s bound by congressionally imposed instructions to try to get as much current U.S. law as possible into trade accords – including stringent protections for patented drugs that it’s repeatedly tried to ease at home to encourage more cost-saving generics. The disconnect has put U.S. negotiators in the position of pushing provisions in the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership that would preclude the administration from making further attempts to win the legal changes.

It also has negotiators pressing the region’s developing countries to sign onto a schedule for adopting the stronger rules, reversing previous exemptions to allow them easier access to cheap medicines. Even though U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman says the talks are “in a closing mode,” American proposals for tough intellectual-property protections for drugs are meeting resistance from Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other Pacific Rim nations. Chile’s foreign minister, for one, has said flatly that his country won’t accept some key provisions. At stake: hundreds of billions of dollars or more in extra costs that consumers may have to pay if the proposals make it harder for cheaper generics to win approval.

That, or the loss of protections sought by the U.S. for movies, music and software as well as drugs if no agreement is reached on the deal’s intellectual-property provisions. “The USTR’s drug proposals are an astonishing effort to require other countries to adopt policies that aren’t in their best interests and lock in policies here that the Obama administration doesn’t support,” said Frederick Abbott, a Florida State University law professor and veteran consultant to the World Health Organization and the United Nations on health and trade issues. Negotiators returned to bargaining this week to try to wrap up the most ambitious trade deal in at least a generation covering about 40% of global output. In the U.S., any final accord must be submitted to Congress for an up-or-down vote with no amendments allowed.

U.S. negotiators want to win makers of advanced drugs 12 years of exclusivity for data that might otherwise help competitors produce similar, cheaper versions. The administration has repeatedly sought to cut that period to seven years in domestic law. Negotiators are also seeking language to make it easier for the big drugmakers to win “secondary” patents to strengthen their control over products. The administration has proposed changing U.S. law to make it harder to get such add-ons.

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The denials are the best part.

Special Investigation: Auckland House Prices (NZ Herald)

The first picture has emerged of Chinese buying patterns in Auckland’s pressure-cooker housing market — and it suggests a powerful, big-spending influence. Real-estate figures leaked to the Labour Party, which cover almost 4,000 house sales by one unidentified firm from February to April, indicate that people of Chinese descent accounted for 39.5% of the transactions in the city in that period. Yet Census 2013 data shows ethnic Chinese who are New Zealand residents or citizens account for just 9% of Auckland’s population. The percentage of Chinese buyers in the sales figures rises with the price of houses, peaking at just over 50% for those that sell for more than $1 million.

A similar trend appears in a frequency comparison of buyers’ names — Chinese names make up about eight out of the 20 most common ones among Auckland residents but fill 19 of the top 20 places for house buyers. It is not known if the Chinese buyers were based here or overseas. Labour housing spokesman Phil Twyford claimed the data, which represents 45% of all Auckland sales over the three months, showed for the first time the scale of an issue that was pricing first-home buyers out of the market. “It’s staggering evidence that strongly suggests there’s a significant offshore Chinese presence in the Auckland real estate market. It could not possibly be all Chinese New Zealanders buying; that’s implausible.”

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Got a kitchen sink for sale?

Auckland Housing: ‘We’ve Got Chinese Buyers’ (NZ Herald)

It seems everyone in Auckland has a story to tell about Chinese buyers wanting their house. One elderly Takapuna man was startled to hear a Chinese syndicate was interested in buying his well-established family home. His place wasn’t even on the market when a real estate agent door-knocked the 82-year-old last month, said a relative. “A Chinese syndicate was wanting to buy a series of sections to build a block of apartments. The hard-sell was on apparently, but thankfully he resisted the temptation.” A few suburbs away in Birkenhead, another real estate agent cold-called, leaving his card in the front door of a huge, stately white house, also not on the market.

“It was the smiley face (on the card) which made me call him,” confessed the owner, who had just finished extensive renovations on his three-level wooden villa. “He said ‘we’ve got Chinese buyers’. So we’ve got a CV of $1.9 million but I asked for $3 million. I haven’t heard back.” It’s not surprising the owner deliberately pushed the price up. The willingness of overseas-based Chinese buyers to pay above the odds has become the stuff of Auckland legend – a perception enthusiastically fuelled by many agents. “Our Chinese buyers helped us [at] Harcourts Flat Bush push the house price even higher in East Auckland yesterday and set a new record high price,” agent Tom Chen wrote to his clients in June about an auction, which he said was “again, dominated by Chinese buyers” with “a much higher budget”.

Chen told the Weekend Herald he meant Chinese people who live here, not foreigners, but the evidence suggests most of the big money is coming from overseas. Local agents aggressively market Auckland houses throughout Asia to Chinese buyers, who can borrow money at much lower interest rates. In April, an ad on a Singaporean radio station promoted Auckland as “an investor’s dream”, with no land tax, stamp duty or capital gains tax. In 2013 a Chinese TV producer offered local sellers commercial spots in Asian markets “to get the attention of the majority of the affluent Chinese community”.

The trend has even alarmed some real estate agents – Barfoot and Thompson’s Ian Thornhill raised concerns in 2013 when a Chinese investor with “surplus funds” bought an Epsom house, reportedly for more than $2 million, and then left it empty. “I don’t think it’s a good thing at all,” he told the Herald. “Kiwis are getting really upset. They can’t compete with Asians who have the money and they pay more … It’s as plain as the nose on your face, what’s happening in the auction rooms each week.”

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Apr 182015
 
 April 18, 2015  Posted by at 10:06 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  7 Responses »


George N. Barnard Atlanta, Georgia. View on Marietta Street 1864

US Is ‘World Leader’ In Child Poverty (Alternet)
‘This Is Far From Over’, ‘We’re All Frogs In Boiling Water’ (Zero Hedge)
US Should Write Laws Of Global Economy, Not China – Obama (RT)
Greece’s Main Creditors Said to Be Unwilling to Allow Euro Exit (Bloomberg)
Let’s Face Reality, Greece Is Bankrupt: Marc Faber (CNBC)
Greek Crisis Comparable to Great Depression: Blanchflower (Bloomberg)
IMF’s Lagarde To Greece: Pay Us Or Else (Forbes)
Quarantine For Greek Bank Subsidiaries In Neighboring Countries (Kathimerini)
Obama Calls For Flexibility In Brief Exchange With Varoufakis (Kathimerini)
IMF Urges EU To Slim Down Its Demands On Greece (Guardian)
ECB Examines Possible Greek IOU Currency In Case Of Default (Reuters)
Greece’s Binary Outlook Gives Markets a Headache (WSJ)
New Zealanders Make More On Their Homes Than They Earn At Work (NZ Herald)
Rock-Star Economy Loiters At Rocky Road To Recession (NZ Herald)
NATO Activity Near Russian Borders Increased By 80% in 2014 (RT)
Hillary Clinton’s Fake Populism Is a Hit (Matt Taibbi)
Ben Bernanke Isn’t the Problem, the System Is (Atlantic)
EU -Under TTIP Pressure- Clears Path For 17 New GMO Foods (Guardian)
Dry Wells Plague California as Drought Has Water Tables Plunging (Bloomberg)
Global Temperature Records Just Got Crushed Again (Bloomberg)

Well done, America.

US Is ‘World Leader’ In Child Poverty (Alternet)

America’s wealth grew by 60% in the past six years, by over $30 trillion. In approximately the same time, the number of homeless children has also grown by 60%. Financier and CEO Peter Schiff said, “People don’t go hungry in a capitalist economy.” The 16 million kids on food stamps know what it’s like to go hungry. Perhaps, some in Congress would say, those children should be working. “There is no such thing as a free lunch,” insisted Georgia Representative Jack Kingston, even for schoolkids, who should be required to “sweep the floor of the cafeteria” (as they actually do at a charter school in Texas). The callousness of U.S. political and business leaders is disturbing, shocking. Hunger is just one of the problems of our children. Teacher Sonya Romero-Smith told about the two little homeless girls she adopted: “Getting rid of bedbugs, that took us a while. Night terrors, that took a little while. Hoarding food..”

America is a ‘Leader’ in Child Poverty The U.S. has one of the highest relative child poverty rates in the developed world. As UNICEF reports, “[Children’s] material well-being is highest in the Netherlands and in the four Nordic countries and lowest in Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and the United States.” Over half of public school students are poor enough to qualify for lunch subsidies, and almost half of black children under the age of six are living in poverty.

$5 a Day for Food, But Congress Thought it was Too Much. Nearly half of all food stamp recipients are children, and they averaged about $5 a day for their meals before the 2014 farm bill cut $8.6 billion (over the next ten years) from the food stamp program. In 2007 about 12 of every 100 kids were on food stamps. Today it’s 20 of every 100.

For Every 2 Homeless Children in 2006, There Are Now 3 On a typical frigid night in January, 138,000 children, according to the U.S. Department of Housing, were without a place to call home. That’s about the same number of households that have each increased their wealth by $10 million per year since the recession.

The US: Near the Bottom in Education, and Sinking The U.S. ranks near the bottom of the developed world in the percentage of 4-year-olds in early childhood education. Early education should be a primary goal for the future, as numerous studies have shown that pre-school helps all children to achieve more and earn more through adulthood, with the most disadvantaged benefiting the most. But we’re going in the opposite direction. Head Start was recently hit with the worst cutbacks in its history.

Children’s Rights? Not in the U.S. It’s hard to comprehend the thinking of people who cut funding for homeless and hungry children. It may be delusion about trickle-down, it may be indifference to poverty, it may be resentment toward people unable to “make it on their own.” The indifference and resentment and disdain for society reach around the globe. Only two nations still refuse to ratify the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child: South Sudan and the United States. When President Obama said, “I believe America is exceptional,” he was close to the truth, in a way he and his wealthy friends would never admit.

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Hunt’s a smart dude.

‘This Is Far From Over’, ‘We’re All Frogs In Boiling Water’ (Zero Hedge)

Global debt has expanded by $35 trillion since the credit crisis and as Lacy Hunt exclaims, “that’s a net negative, debt is an increase in current consumption in exchange for a decline in future spending and we are not going to solve this problem by taking on more and more debt.” Santelli notes that debt will actually keep growth “squashed down” and points out the low rates in Europe questioning the ability of The ECB’s actions to save the economy which Hunt confirms as “longer-term rates are excellent economic indicators” and that is not a good sign for Europe. “This process is far from over,” Hunt concludes, “rates will move irregularly lower and will remain depressed for several years.” Santelli sums up perfectly, “we’re all frogs in boiling water,” as we await the consequences of central planning.

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“The laws of the global economy should be written by the United States and not by the likes of China..”

US Should Write Laws Of Global Economy, Not China – Obama (RT)

The laws of the global economy should be written by the United States and not by the likes of China according to President Obama, as concern over China’s influence is growing. Washington hopes a Pacific free trade pact will curb Beijing’s investment bank. “When 95% of our potential customers live abroad, we must be sure that we are writing the rules for the global economy, not a country like China,” Obama said in his special message to Congress on Thursday, RIA reports. The statement comes after an agreement by US lawmakers to fast-track international trade bills earlier on Thursday. The White House is now looking forward to completing the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement this year to remove trade barriers between the participating nations which account for 40% of the global economy and more than a third of global trade.

“Our exports support more than eleven million jobs, and we know that exporting companies pay higher wages than others. Today we have the opportunity to open even more new markets to goods and services backed by three proud words: Made in America,” Obama added. Meanwhile, the US and Japan are the largest economies in the 12 Pacific nations bloc and view it as a strategic economic partnership. The two countries have been voicing concerns over China’s increasing influence in Asia and did not join the Chinese Investment bank (AIIB). The AIIB is expected to challenge the Washington-based World Bank and rival Japan’s Asian Development Bank. It currently has 57 countries from 5 continents as founding members including the biggest European nations. International trade and investment institutions are the latest contest issues between Beijing and the Washington-Tokyo alliance for influence in Asia.

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They want to keep them aboard as feudal servants?!

Greece’s Main Creditors Said to Be Unwilling to Allow Euro Exit (Bloomberg)

Greece’s major creditors are not ready to let the country drop out of the euro as long as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shows willingness to meet at least some key demands, according to two people familiar with the discussions. Chancellor Angela Merkel will go a long way to prevent a Greek exit from the single currency, though only so far, one of the people said. Every possibility is being considered in Berlin to pull Greece back from the brink and keep it in the 19-nation euro, the person said. For all the foot-dragging in Athens, some creditors are willing to show Greece more flexibility in negotiations over its finances to prevent a euro exit, the second person said. The red line is that the Syriza-led government shows readiness to commit to at least some economic reform measures, said both people, who asked not to be named discussing strategy.

“Our view is that Greece is not going to exit the euro,” Stephen Macklow-Smith at JPMorgan Asset Management in London, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Friday. While both sides have “very entrenched positions” in the negotiations, “if you look at the way the euro-zone crisis has developed, in every case what you’ve seen is in return for firm action you get concessions.” The brinkmanship has sent Greek government bonds heading toward their worst week since Tsipras’s election in January at the head of an anti-austerity coalition. While the public rhetoric has escalated amid a standoff over releasing the last tranche of aid, creditors are willing to cut Greece some slack, the second person said.

Euro-area finance ministers are next due to discuss progress on Greece at their meeting on April 24 in the Latvian capital, Riga. Greece’s government remains confident an interim agreement with its creditors allowing disbursement of bailout funds can be reached by the end of April, a Greek official told reporters in Athens on Friday. “We’re of the view that Greece will hold to the commitments it made to the institutions,” Georg Streiter, Merkel’s deputy spokesman, said when asked about the chancellor’s stance. A deal won’t be ready by April 24 and could come together in the following weeks, Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters in Washington. “I don’t believe in this game-of-chicken rubbish,” Dijsselbloem said. “We don’t know what the risks are.”

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“If they don’t want to pay what are you going to do, invade and hang them all up?”

Let’s Face Reality, Greece Is Bankrupt: Marc Faber (CNBC)

Greece is bankrupt and should default, well-known investor Marc Faber told CNBC Friday, arguing that a “geopolitical game of chess” was being played out in the region. The comments by Faber, the editor of the “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” came at a time of heightened tensions between Greece and its international creditors. The organizations overseeing the country’s two international bailouts – worth a combined €240 billion – have said the country will not receive a last tranche of aid, worth 7.2 billion euros, until it makes far-reaching reforms. But Faber, a bearish investor known as “Dr. Doom,” said the country’s fiscal situation was unsalvageable. “Even if Greece grows at 10%per annum for the next ten years, it will not be able to pay its debts back,” he told CNBC.

“It’s bankrupt. We better face the reality and not kick the can the can down the road. Greece should default.” Faber said that while Greece could leave the euro zone and adopt a parallel currency, there that geopolitics were coming in to play and there was no appetite in Europe to let the country exit from the single currency bloc. “I personally think it’s not so much of an economic issue as a political issue,” he told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box.” “Europe, and in particular NATO and the U.S. do not want Greece to leave (the euro zone) because if they do, other people are going to knock on Greece’s door – like the Russians or the Chinese maybe. It’s very much a geopolitical game of chess that’s being played.” Greece and its creditors disagree on which reforms should be implemented, however, and as such the much-needed aid remains under lock and key.

T his has prompted speculation that the country could soon run out of money and default on its forthcoming debt repayments to the IMF and ECB, which could, in turn, result in the country leaving the euro zone. Greece denies this is the case and ECB President Mario Draghi said earlier this week that he has not even considered a default. On Friday, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis will meet Draghi and IMF officials in Washington. The ECB stands to lose a lot if Greece does default, Faber argued, and thus Greece was in strong position to negotiate better terms for its bailout program and debt repayments. “I think that the ECB and European banks will have to take huge losses on their loans to Greece and bond purchases they have made (if it defaults),” he said. “I think Greece is in a very strong negotiating position. If they don’t want to pay what are you going to do, invade and hang them all up?”

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Blanchflower can’t stop laughing about the whole thing.

Greek Crisis Comparable to Great Depression: Blanchflower (Bloomberg)

Dartmouth College’s Danny Blanchflower discusses the Greek debt crisis with Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox on “Taking Stock.”

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“We’re not actually in a rules based world here, we’re in a politically determined one. If the other eurozone members think that keeping Greece solvent , in the euro and functioning is sufficiently important then they will do that.”

IMF’s Lagarde To Greece: Pay Us Or Else (Forbes)

It’s long been true that welshing on debts to the IMF is just something that a civilised country just doesn t do. Thus there’s little surprise when Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, points out to Greece that there’s really no mileage in that country thinking about not paying the IMF back the money it s owed. Because, you know, that s just not something that civilised countries do. There is however a sting in the tail here. For there’s no formal method of dunning a country that does fail to repay the IMF on time. It takes at least a month after the payment doesn t appear for the IMF to go through its own internal reporting processes and then another couple of weeks for it to declare actual default.

And there’s politics in there as well: they can, quite happily, say that, well, they re trying to pay, they ve paid a bit perhaps, so we ll not actually say that they are in default. The point being that the rules aren’t hard and fast. What really matters is what other people think of a skipped IMF payment and here it’s the ECB that is most important. Here’s Lagarde:

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned that she wouldn’t let Greece skip a debt payment to the lender, shutting down a potential avenue to buy the Greek government some financial leeway. We never had an advanced economy actually asking for that kind of thing, delayed payment, Lagarde said in an interview Thursday in Washington with Bloomberg Television. And I very much hope that this is not the case with Greece. I would certainly, for myself, not support it.

It’s almost ritualistic, her saying that of course. But that it has been said does bind in a way future actions. Having gone public with said statement then the IMF can’t really turn around and say Well, it doesn’t matter if Greece is late with a payment.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, said the IMF is worried about the liquidity situation in Greece but made it clear that the institution would not give the country any leeway on ¨ 1bn of debt repayments coming due in early May.

This is almost like the Kremlinology of old of course, looking for the runes in such remarks, but by the standards of these things it’s a fairly firm statement. But it’s really the ECB that matters here. Assume that Greece did delay the IMF payment (as one minister has said they would, if faced with a choice of paying the bank or paying the country s pensions). Not a great deal would happen immediately as a direct result. What would actually matter is what the ECB did:

With Greek sovereign yields blowing wider on Thursday (and pretty much staying there), it s worth revisiting what exactly might happen if, say, May 1 arrives and Greece fails to pay the €200m due to the IMF that day. Received wisdom has it that the ECB will withdraw the ELA emergency liquidity assistance currently propping up the Greek banking system, which will promptly collapse; Tsipras and Co would then be forced to bring back the Drachma (or similar) and Greece would exit the eurozone. But what do the rules here say?

Well, actually, the rules are written in such a flaccid manner that the ECB could do anything it liked. They could conclude that it’s temporary, no biggie, and keep supporting the Greek banks. Or they could conclude that it’s not, it is a biggie, and close them down and thus force default and Grexit. But the point is that a putative default to the IMF doesn’t really change that situation. Because the rules are sufficiently flaccid that pretty much anything can be interpreted as being a reason to withdraw EULA support: or nothing. We’re not actually in a rules based world here, we re in a politically determined one. If the other eurozone members think that keeping Greece solvent , in the euro and functioning is sufficiently important then they will do that. If they don’t they won’t: there’s really no rules here that can insist that they go either way.

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“This quarantine was deemed necessary after the aggressive rhetoric of the new Greek government..”

Quarantine For Greek Bank Subsidiaries In Neighboring Countries (Kathimerini)

Neighboring countries have effectively quarantined Greece in a bid to minimize the consequences on their credit systems in case of a Greek “accident.” Kathimerini understands that the central banks of Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania, Serbia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia have all forced the subsidiaries of Greek banks operating in those countries to bring their exposure to Greek risk (bonds, treasury bills, deposits to Greek banks, loans etc.) down to zero in order to shield themselves and minimize the danger of contagion in case the negotiations between the Greek government and the eurozone do not bear fruit. This quarantine was deemed necessary after the aggressive rhetoric of the new Greek government – particularly in the first few weeks after the election – regarding a debt restructuring, the non-completion of the creditors’ assessment and so on.

Special care was taken for the subsidiaries of Greek lenders, which have a major presence in neighboring states, to make sure that they would not proceed to new positions in Greek bonds, T-bills, deposits in Greek banks or interbank funding. The Greek government recently put press pressure on banks to think how they could get around the ECB’s ban on the acquisition of more T-bills. Another concern for local bank groups is the threat of a reduction in the Greek element of their subsidiaries in neighboring countries in case of turmoil in Greece. Don’t forget that the Cypriot-owned bank branches in Greece changed hands virtually overnight in March 2013 during the Cyprus bank bail-in process.

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“But we are not going to end up ‘being’ compromised. This not what we were elected for.”

Obama Calls For Flexibility In Brief Exchange With Varoufakis (Kathimerini)

US President Barack Obama spoke with Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis on the sidelines of an event at the White House honoring Greece’s Independence Day with the former stressing the need for flexibility from all sides in ongoing reform negotiations between Greece and its creditors, according to sources. The conversation between Obama and Varoufakis lasted for around 12 minutes, according to sources who said Varoufakis asked Obama to keep pressing European leaders so that a solution is found to Greece’s problem. Varoufakis agreed with Obama that all sides need to show flexibility and also highlighted the need to remain focused on the goal and on the process that Greece is involved in with its creditors. The event at the White House was also attended by US Vice President Joe Biden and Greek Archbishop Demetrios.

Varoufakis is to meet on Friday with US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew at 10.30 p.m. Greek time following a scheduled meeting at 6 p.m. with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. On Thursday, in a speech at the Brookings Institution, Varoufakis underlined the difficulties in Greek negotiations with its creditors but said Greece was more keen than anyone for a deal to be reached. Nevertheless, Greece will not approve more austerity, he said. “We will not sign up to targets we know our economy cannot meet by means of policies that our partners should not wish to impose,” he said. “We will compromise, we will compromise and we will compromise in order to come to a speedy agreement. But we are not going to end up ‘being’ compromised. This not what we were elected for.”

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“..the reforms being demanded from Athens in exchange for a vital €7.2bn in rescue funds should be simplified and slimmed down.”

IMF Urges EU To Slim Down Its Demands On Greece (Guardian)

The IMF has urged EU negotiators to slim down their list of demands in debt talks with Greece amid fears that time is running out to reach a deal. The intervention by one of the country’s three main lenders came as the UK chancellor, George Osborne, said the impasse posed the biggest immediate threat to the global economy. Poul Thomsen, head of the IMF’s European department, said the reforms being demanded from Athens in exchange for a vital €7.2bn (£5.2bn) in rescue funds should be simplified and slimmed down. European finance ministers and senior officials have warned that Greece is running out of time to secure the payment and avert a disorderly exit from the eurozone. Osborne said the situation in Greece was “the most worrying for the global economy”.

Speaking at the IMF’s spring meeting in Washington,he said discussions about Greece had “pervaded every meeting” and that “the mood is notably more gloomy than at the last international gathering”. He added: “It’s clear now to me that a misstep or a miscalculation on either side could easily return European economies to the kind of perilous situation we saw three to four years ago.” Osborne’s German counterpart, Wolfgang Schäuble, repeated his criticism of the radical left Syriza government’s negotiating tactics and warned that it was harming the economy. He said Greece was in a “very difficult situation” after Syriza demanded a new deal with its creditors – the IMF, the EU and the ECB – which had delayed reforms and hit the country’s already struggling economy.

Schäuble said it was unlikely that next week’s deadline for Athens to submit reform proposals would be met. The reforms are scheduled to be discussed at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Riga, Latvia next Friday, followed by a further gathering in Brussels on 11 May that is being seen as the crunch point for Athens. Greece is scheduled to make a €747m repayment to the IMF on 12 May and there are fears that Athens will be unable to meet the deadline as cash runs out of state and domestic bank coffers.

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“..the so-called adverse scenarios group.”

ECB Examines Possible Greek IOU Currency In Case Of Default (Reuters)

The ECB has analysed a scenario in which Greece runs out of money and starts paying civil servants with IOUs, creating a virtual second currency within the euro bloc, people with knowledge of the exercise told Reuters. Greece is close to having to repay the IMF about €1 billion in May and officials at the ECB are growing concerned. Although the Greek government has repeatedly said that it wants to honour its debts, officials at the ECB are considering the possibility that it may not, in work undertaken by the so-called adverse scenarios group. Any default by Greece would force the ECB to act and possibly restrict Greek banks’ crucial access to emergency liquidity funding.

Officials fear however that such action could push cash-strapped Athens into paying civil servants in IOUs in order to avoid using up scarce euros. “The fact is we are not seeing any progress… So we have to look at these scenarios,” said one person with knowledge of the matter. A spokesman for the ECB said it “does not engage in speculation about how specific scenarios regarding Greece could unfold.” One Greek government official, who declined to be named, said there was no need to examine such a scenario because Athens was optimistic it would reach a deal with its international lenders by the end of the month. Greece has dismissed a recent report suggesting it would need to tap all its remaining cash reserves across the public sector, a total of €2 billion, to pay civil service wages and pensions at the end of the month.

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“But if Greece leaves, all bets are off.”

Greece’s Binary Outlook Gives Markets a Headache (WSJ)

The conundrum that Greece presents for most investors is simple, but troubling. It is either mostly irrelevant, or one of the biggest threats to markets this year. The war of words over Greece and its attempts to strike a deal with its partners in recent days has deepened. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble warned that time was “running out” for Greece to strike an accord over its bailout program. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said talks were nowhere near the point where money could be disbursed. And IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Thursday advised Greece to “get on” with fixing the economy. Greece has so far kept up with debt service, and retained access to very short-term market funding. But some very chunky payments come due in the summer months.

Standard & Poor’s this week cut Greece’s rating to triple-C-plus, warning that without deep reforms or further relief, Greece’s obligations would become unsustainable. Fears of a eurozone exit are building again. Financial markets are beginning to feel the jitters. Thursday, Greek bonds fell sharply, with two-year yields rising above 26%. Yields on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds rose, widening the gap with Northern Europe. German bond yields fell to record lows, partly due to the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program, but partly due to nerves about Greece. As long as Greece stays in the eurozone, most investors can afford to pay it little attention. It accounts for just 1.8% of the currency bloc’s economic output.

The lowly rating on Greece’s bonds means they are off-limits for most funds; the volatility of Greek stocks will have deterred others from dipping into the market. The bigger factors affecting markets have been the ECB’s actions, the pickup in eurozone economic data, and the moves in currency markets. But if Greece leaves, all bets are off. The initial impact is probably containable, again due to Greece’s relatively small size economically. The ECB’s bond-purchase program should help stem financial-market contagion. But the second-round effects and political fallout are unknowable. UBS’s economists, for instance, warn that the apparent lack of bond-market concern over Greece is an unreliable indicator of calm; they argue that the real risk would come from bank runs in other highly-indebted countries. Undoubtedly, the remaining members of the eurozone would seek to circle the wagons and declare Greece unique once more, but the credibility of that effort might fall short.

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How to destroy an economy. “God help New Zealand.”

New Zealanders Make More On Their Homes Than They Earn At Work (NZ Herald)

A three-bedroom North Shore “do-up” has earned its owner nearly $1000 a day – just shy of the salary of a High Court judge – in Auckland’s red-hot property market. A Weekend Herald investigation into soaring house prices comes amid warnings from the Reserve Bank about the housing market and calls for immediate action by the country’s chief human rights watchdog. Stuart Duncan sold his 1982 fibre-cement home at 116 Oaktree Ave in Browns Bay in November 2013 for $751,000. Now the new owners have on-sold for $1,205,000 – despite doing little work on the property – giving them a 16-month profit of $454,000 – about $940 a day. “I’m still in shock,” Mr Duncan said after learning how much his old property fetched. “It’s just disbelief. “It was an 80s house, three-bedroom do-up. Where is the market going? God help New Zealand.”

The Weekend Herald has analysed annual house sale figures and compared them to wages earned in the country’s 12 regional council areas to calculate whether people’s homes are earning them more than they get from working. In Auckland, the average house earned nearly $230 a day in the past year – about twice the average worker’s pay. That’s about the same as an entry-level doctor or high school head of department with responsibility for 10 teaching staff. The one-bathroom Browns Bay property has a CV of just $800,000 and comes with a garage and carport. It sits on 1043sq m freehold and is zoned for Rangitoto College. Barfoot & Thompson agent Eve Huang said though the vendors had done little work on the property, they had obtained resource consent for the large section to be subdivided into two lots, which increased its value.

Mr Duncan said he couldn’t believe how the market had taken off, and blamed foreign buyers with deep pockets for what was fast becoming a housing crisis. “Every auction you go to, if they want it they just don’t give up. It’s a bottomless pit. It just doesn’t seem right. We’re going to end up with a generation that don’t own property.”

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An economy on the verge of implosion. How can these people not have learned from the US et al? They do have TV and papers here after all. Oh, wait, that is the very problem..

Rock-Star Economy Loiters At Rocky Road To Recession (NZ Herald)

A much-anticipated return to surplus somehow metamorphoses into yet another unwelcome deficit; dairy prices slump ever lower; the New Zealand dollar keeps rising ever higher; the overheated Auckland property market makes the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s look like an exercise in financial probity. Is this the so-called rock-star economy? Or the rocky road to recession? It is not raining on John Key and his colleagues. It is pouring. Still smarting at the mass defection of erstwhile supporters which the party took for granted in the Northland byelection, National is currently exhibiting the self-absorbed demeanour of someone who cannot quite work out what is happening to himself or herself and is not sure what to do about it.

Not that National can do much anyway to halt the rise in the currency or stimulate the international milk market. In the past week the Prime Minister and his Finance Minister have also appeared to accept they will fail to meet their long-established target date this year for a resumption of Budget surpluses. As for Auckland house prices, well, the warning from the Reserve Bank on Wednesday of a potential downward, disruptive correction in prices could not have been blunter. The Reserve Bank’s worry is that the trading banks, which have 60% of their lending in residential mortgages, could find themselves in dire straits such that credit dries up with the result that the economy goes into a severe downturn.

Key’s response was literally “crisis, what crisis?” But that hellish scenario ought to chill Key and Bill English to the bone. But the Reserve Bank has not stopped there. It is strongly urging the Government to give “fresh consideration” to ways and means of shutting property speculators attracted by untaxed capital gains out of the Auckland market. Key’s difficulty is that he has long ruled out a capital gains tax. His one consolation is that Labour leader Andrew Little has effectively done likewise. But Little is not in Government. Key is.

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We need to stop our own war mongerers, not someone else’s.

NATO Activity Near Russian Borders Increased By 80% in 2014 (RT)

There was a sharp increase the intensity of the training of NATO troops near the borders of Russia last year, Russian General Staff said. “In 2014, the intensity of NATO’s operational and combat training activities has grown by 80%,” Lieutenant General Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Main Operation Directorate of General Staff. The leadership of NATO made no effort to hide the clear anti-Russian orientation of these activities, he added. “During this period, NATO created a grouping of its member states’ forces in the Baltic States, consisting of over 10,000 troops, about 1,500 armored vehicles, 80 planes and helicopters and 50 warships,” Kartapolov said during the IV Moscow Conference on International Security.

According to the Lieutenant General, strategic bombers from the US Air Force were used to perform strategic tasks during those exercises. He also said that the US plans to supply its Eastern European allies with JASSM-ER long-range aviation cruise missiles, which will enable NATO warplanes to hit targets 1,300 kilometers inside the Russian territory. “In the case of a military conflict, critical facilities on the territory of almost the entire European part of Russia will be vulnerable to NATO’s air attack, with the flight time of the missiles reduced by half,” Kartapolov warned.

The General Staff official also spoke about increased intelligence activity by NATO in the Black Sea. He said that US Global Hawk drones were spotted in Ukrainian air space in March, with the UAVs increasing “the depth of reconnaissance on the territory of Russia by 250-300 kilometers.” Since Russia’s reunion with Crimea and the start of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine last spring, NATO forces have stepped up military exercises along the Russian border – in the Baltic States and Eastern Europe.

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I know, I said no more Hillary, but I’ll make an exception for Taibbi.

Hillary Clinton’s Fake Populism Is a Hit (Matt Taibbi)

Hillary Clinton ran onto the playing field this week, Rock and Roll Part 2 blaring in the background, and started lying within minutes of announcing her entry into the presidential election campaign. “There’s something wrong,” she told a crowd of Iowans, “when hedge fund managers pay lower taxes than nurses or the truckers I saw on I-80 when I was driving here over the last two days.” Oh, right, that. The infamous carried interest tax break, the one that allows private equity vampires like Mitt Romney and Stephen Schwartzman to pay a top tax rate of 15% while all of the rest of us (including the truckers Hillary “saw” – note she didn’t say “hung out with Bill and me over chilled shrimp at the Water Club”) pay income taxes.

The carried interest loophole is an absurd, completely unjustifiable handout to the not merely well-off but filthy rich, and it’s been law in this country for about three decades. Raise your hand if you really think that Hillary Clinton is going to repeal the carried interest tax break. We’ll come back to that in a minute. In the meantime, the reaction to Hillary’s campaign announcement went exactly according to script. Newspapers and news sites ever-so-slightly raised figurative eyebrows at the tone of Hillary’s announcement, remarking upon its “populist” flair. This is no plutocrat who plans to ride to the White House upon a historically massive assload of corporate money, the papers declared, this is a candidate of the people!

“Hillary’s Return: Her Folksy, Populist Re-Entry,” proclaimed Politico. “Populist Theme, Convivial In Tone!” headlined the Los Angeles Times. “Hillary Lifts Populist Spirits,” commented The Hill, hook visibly protruding from its reportorial fish-mouth. Having watched this campaign-reporting process from both the inside and the outside for a long time now, I knew what was coming after the initial wave of “Hillary the Populist!” stories. In presidential politics, every time a candidate on either the left or the right veers in a populist direction – usually with immediate success, since the American populace is ready to run through a wall for anyone who makes the obvious observation that they’re being screwed by someone up above – it takes about two or three days before the “Let’s let cooler heads prevail!” editorials start trickling in.

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As I said this week, they want the Bernank not for what he knows, but who he knows: “..it’s fairly clear that what Citadel wants is inside information..”

Ben Bernanke Isn’t the Problem, the System Is (Atlantic)

So Ben Bernanke wants to make a buck. Who can blame him? The guy is one of the most esteemed economists of his generation. He served his country admirably; his term as chairman of the Federal Reserve was probably the single most stressful term in that role in history. He resigned from his tenured professorship at Princeton when he joined the Fed board. What else is the guy going to do? This is, of course, how systemic problems work—few individual cases are obviously unacceptable, but the whole is horrifying. In this case, it’s the “revolving door” of movement between government positions and the financial sector—that is to say, from modestly paying positions in the public sector, overseeing financial firms, to higher-paying jobs in the private sector.

Bernanke is going to work for Citadel, a $25 billion hedge fund that is one of the country’s largest. While Bernanke is a talented economist, he has also never worked in the industry, so it’s fairly clear that what Citadel wants is inside information—either things he knows because he remains close with people in positions of authority, or his insight into ongoing negotiations. That’s why he’s been in high demand by financial-industry powers ever since stepping down last February. For example, The New York Times noted that he analyzed the Fed’s true feelings about inflation at a dinner with hedge funders in Las Vegas—allowing several to make profitable moves. Another lamented that he didn’t pay closer attention: “He gave this stuff out, but I didn’t realize what he was saying at the time, so I didn’t do a great trade.”

Quantifying the revolving door is difficult—it involves a series of subjective choices about what constitutes the revolving door, what level of employees should be counted, and so on. (One study from Notre Dame found a double-digit increase between 2001 and 2013.) But there’s ample anecdotal evidence. In fact, Bernanke isn’t even the first Federal Reserve alum to jump to a hedge fund in the last month. Jeremy Stein, a former governor, was hired by BlueMountain Capital Management in late March. And as Rob Copeland notes, this is just the latest in a stream of prominent government officials: Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and ex-Reagan economic adviser Martin Feldstein accepted paid roles on a now-disbanded economic advisory board at John Paulson’s hedge-fund firm that started in 2008.

More recently, former Obama administration chief of staff William Daley joined Swiss hedge fund Argentiere Capital, while former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and former CIA chief David Petraeus took posts at private-equity firms Warburg Pincus and KKR, respectively. And just this week, former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick was introduced as a new managing director at Bain Capital. That doesn’t even include non-hedge-fund and private-equity moves. Peter Orszag, who led President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget, took a job with Citigroup when he left. The Obama administration had been closely involved with Citi in the aftermath of the financial collapse, and the bank received nearly $500 billion in bailouts.

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Nobody wants GMO, nobody wants the TTIP. So what do we get? And have we forgotten how long DDT was considered safe? Declaring GMO safe is not science. Wait a hundred years.

EU -Under TTIP Pressure- Clears Path For 17 New GMO Foods (Guardian)

Seventeen new genetically modified food products will be authorised for import to Europe before the end of May in a significant acceleration of biotech trade, the Guardian has learned. An announcement could be made as early as next week, sources said, when a meeting of EU commissioners has been pencilled in to review adoption of new rules for approving GM imports. Europe currently imports around 58 GM products from abroad, mostly US maize, cotton, soy bean and sugar beet. But Greenpeace said that the US has raised the issue of a large logjam in biotech authorisations in talks over a free trade deal known as TTIP. “With transatlantic trade talks ongoing, pressure has been mounting from the biotech industry and the US government to break open the EU market to GM imports and to speed up authorisation procedures,” Marco Contiero, Greenpeace EU’s agriculture director, told the Guardian.

“The possible authorisation of 17 GM crops by the commission in the next few days is a likely result of this pressure.” “The timing is still being discussed but it is just a question of internal procedure now,” a source familiar with the discussions told the Guardian. “It is clear that the 17 strains will be authorised at the same time as the review meeting or just after. I would say it will happen before the end of May for sure.” Under proposed new GM import rules seen by the Guardian, future authorisations would automatically follow approval of new strains by the European Food and Safety Agency (Efsa). Individual countries would be given a similar opt-out to the one agreed for GM cultivation in a law passed earlier this year.

“It will be up to each member state wanting to make use of this ‘opt-out’ to develop this justification on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the GMO [genetically-modified organism] in question, the type of measure envisaged and the specific circumstances at national or regional level that can justify such an opt-out,” the draft said. Opposition from some EU states to draft GM authorisations is “usually not based on science but on other considerations reflecting the societal debate existing in the country,” the commission argues. So opt-outs will not be granted to EU states who seek it on health or environmental grounds, after Efsa has deemed a product safe. “The scope for the exceptions [opt-outs] will probably be less than in the cultivation proposal because we are talking about the internal market here,” an informed source said. “You will have to have a really solid reason. Otherwise it would be attacked as a disruption to the market.”

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“When you’re 400 yards from the lake and you have no water, you’re in trouble..”

Dry Wells Plague California as Drought Has Water Tables Plunging (Bloomberg)

Near California’s Success Lake, more than 1,000 water wells have failed. Farmers are spending $750,000 to drill 1,800 feet down to keep fields from going fallow. Makeshift showers have sprouted near the church parking lot. “The conditions are like a third-world country,” said Andrew Lockman, a manager at the Office of Emergency Services in Tulare County, in the heart of the state’s agricultural Central Valley about 175 miles north of Los Angeles. As California enters the fourth year of a record drought, its residents and $43 billion agriculture industry have drawn groundwater so low that it’s beyond the reach of existing wells. That’s left thousands with dry taps and pushed farmers to dig deeper as Governor Jerry Brown vorders the first mandatory water rationing in state history.

“The demand we’re placing on the aquifer and the deep bedrock drilling, which is going on at an alarmingly fast pace, is really scary,” said Tricia Blattler, executive director of the Tulare County Farm Bureau. “Folks are really concerned we’re not going to be able to find water in the groundwater system much longer. We are tapping it way too quickly.” Nowhere has lack of rain been felt more than in Tulare County, in a valley dotted with dairy farms and walnut orchards at the foot of the Sierra Nevada mountains. With 458,000 residents, it’s home to 1,013 dry wells, accounting for more than half of those that have failed in the state since January 2014.

Outside Porterville, in a dusty, unincorporated hamlet populated by many Latino citrus-farm workers, some residents use donated bottled water to drink and cook. About 40 people a day wash in the 26 showers set up in trailers next to the parking lot of Iglesia Emmanuel church. They lug nonpotable water home from county tanks for their toilets. Annette Clonts began bathing at friends’ homes or sneaking middle-of-the-night showers at Lake Success’s recreation area after the well near her trailer ran low two years ago. When the lake showers started sputtering in November, she turned to those at the church. “When you’re 400 yards from the lake and you have no water, you’re in trouble,” said Clonts, a 57-year-old retired cook.

[..] “We’ve got to find a way to survive, to hold on,” said Gallegos, who lives with her husband and two daughters. “Right now, we don’t have the money to drill a deeper well. You’re talking about $15,000.” That’s the starting price for residential wells, which range from 30 to 150 feet (9 to 46 meters) and can cost as much as $45,000, said Blattler, the official with the county’s farm bureau. Agricultural wells, which are about 1,000 to 1,800 feet, run $250,000 to $750,000, she said. There are so many customers, they’ll have to wait as long as two years.

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With an El Nino yet to come.

Global Temperature Records Just Got Crushed Again (Bloomberg)

It just keeps getting hotter. March was the hottest month on record, and the past three months were the warmest start to a year on record, according to new data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s a continuation of trends that made 2014 the most blistering year for the surface of the planet, in to records going back to 1880. Thirteen of the 14 hottest years are in the 21st century, and 2015 is on track to break the heat record again. Results from the world’s top monitoring agencies vary slightly. NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency both had March as the hottest month on record. NASA had it as the third-hottest. All three agencies agree that the past three months have been the hottest start to a year.

The heat was experienced differently across the world. People in the U.S. and Canadian Northeast had an unusually cool March. But vast swaths of unusually warm weather covered much of the globe, and records were broken from California to Australia. The sweltering start to 2015 may be just the beginning. The National Weather Services predicts that a pattern of unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean, known as El Nino, will most likely persist well into the second half of the year. And this El Nino could be a big one. El Nino conditions transfer heat that’s been building in the ocean into the atmosphere, affecting weather around the world. A strong El Nino could possibly bring relief to California’s unprecedented drought in the form of heavy rains, but would likely add yet another year to a pile of broken temperature records.

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 April 13, 2015  Posted by at 10:16 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  3 Responses »


George N. Barnard Nashville, Tennessee. Rail yard and depot. 1864

China’s March Exports Shrink 15% Year-on-Year In Shock Fall (Reuters)
China’s March Exports Come In Far Worse Than Expected (WSJ)
China’s Trade Collapse Raises Fears Of Growth Slowdown (Telegraph)
World Bank Warns Of Hit To Australia As Chinese Growth Falters (AAP)
China’s Stock Surge May Very Well End In Tears (MarketWatch)
The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher (Bloomberg)
Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil (Bloomberg)
Greece May Have Blown Best Hope Of Debt Deal (Reuters)
Greece Defends Bailout Tactics As Latest Deadline Looms (Guardian)
UK Economy Poised To Welcome ‘Deflation’ For First Time Since 1960 (Guardian)
Sales Of London Luxury Homes Drop 80% In One Year (FT)
Quarter Of World’s Copper Mines Operating At A Loss (Reuters)
Bundesbank Tells German Heta Creditors To Expect 50% Loss (Bloomberg)
Sweden Confirms Mystery ‘Russian Sub’…Was In Fact A Workboat (RT)
Default In Ukraine ‘Virtual Certainty’: S&P Cuts Rating To ‘CC’ (RT)
Protests Across Brazil Seek Ouster Of President (AP)
Auckland Housing Bubble ‘Floats Off Into Its Own Orbit’ (Hickey)
40% Of Houses In Auckland Are Bought By Investors (Interest.co.nz)
New Zealand PM Denies There Is A Housing Bubble (NZ Herald)
The Shadowy History of the Secret Bank that Runs the World (LeBor)

15% is a devastating number. But they’re just going to announce 7% GDP growth no matter what.

China’s March Exports Shrink 15% Year-on-Year In Shock Fall (Reuters)

China’s export sales contracted 15% in March while import shipments fell at their sharpest rate since the 2009 global financial crisis, a shock outcome that deepens concern about sputtering Chinese economic growth. The tumble in exports – the worst in about a year – compared with expectations for a 12% rise and could heighten worries about how a rising yuan CNY=CFXS has hurt demand for Chinese goods and services abroad, analysts said. In a sign that domestic demand was also tepid, imports into the world’s second-biggest economy shrunk 12.7% last month from a year ago, the General Administration of Customs said on Monday. That was the biggest slump in imports since May 2009, and compared with a Reuters poll forecast for a 11.7% drop.

“It’s a very bad number that was much worse than expectations,” Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS in Hong Kong, said in reference to the export data. “It leads to warning flags both on global demand and China’s competitiveness.” Buffeted by lukewarm foreign and domestic demand, China’s trade sector has wobbled in the past year on the back of the country’s cooling economy, unsettling policymakers. Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang was quoted by Xinhua state news agency as saying earlier this month that authorities must act to arrest China’s export slowdown lest it further dampens economic growth.

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“The fall defied the expectations of economists who said exports usually rebound after the Lunar New Year..”

China’s March Exports Come In Far Worse Than Expected (WSJ)

China’s exports fell sharply in March while imports slumped once again, suggesting to economists that the world’s second largest economy is being hit with sluggish demand at home and abroad. The nation’s exports slid 15% from a year earlier in March while imports dropped 12.7%, according to data released Monday by the General Administration of Customs. “Domestic demand is still sluggish,” said Kevin Lai, economist at Daiwa Capital. “Other than the U.S., the export situation isn’t looking very strong.” The fall defied the expectations of economists who said exports usually rebound after the Lunar New Year, which fell in February this year. In February, customs data showed exports up 48.3% from a year earlier while imports were down 20.5%.

Exports are no longer the big engine for the Chinese economy that they once were but the absence of growth in that once-critical area is a further drag on already weak growth. China’s economy posted growth of 7.4% last year, its slowest pace in 24 years, and the government has set an even lower target of about 7% growth for this year. Beijing has used a host of targeted measures to boost the economy, ranging from increased infrastructure spending and reductions in electricity tariffs to two cuts in interest rates to lower the cost of borrowing for domestic companies.

Data for the first quarter are due to be released Wednesday, and many economists project growth at less than 7% from a year earlier. Economists expected an increase of about 10% for exports in March and a drop of 12% for imports, according to a poll of analysts by The Wall Street Journal. China posted a trade surplus of 18.16 billion yuan in March, or about $2.93 billion, well below the $60.6 billion surplus in February.

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“..concerns about the state of the global recovery..” No kidding.

China’s Trade Collapse Raises Fears Of Growth Slowdown (Telegraph)

China’s exports fell by a spectacular 15pc in March reviving fears of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. Trade data showed imports also fell by 12pc year-on-year, resulting in a sharp drop in the country’s trade surplus and leading to concerns economic growth will register a significant slowdown when figures are released on Wednesday. China’s economy has been in the throes of a managed slowdown in the last few years. Beijing has set a target of 7pc GDP growth in 2015 as the country seeks to move towards a more sustainble rate of growth. GDP expanded by 7.4pc in 2014, its slowest rate of output growth in nearly a quarter of a century.

The Australian dollar, which is closely linked to the trade fortunes of the Chinese economy, fell to a six-year low on the back of the news. A significant brake on Chinese growth could now “ripple out across the globe,” said Michael Hewson of CMC Markets. “These data misses raise concerns that not only is the Chinese economy failing to rebalance with demand remaining low, but also the global economy’s demand for Chinese exports is also falling back raising concerns about the state of the global recovery as well,” said Mr Hewson. The sluggish numbers come despite stimulative action from China’s central bank to cut interest rates, and ease bank reserve targets.

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Australia already knows.

World Bank Warns Of Hit To Australia As Chinese Growth Falters (AAP)

A Chinese economic slowdown will hit Australia as iron ore prices tumble, the World Bank has said. The bank said Australia’s growth pace had deteriorated sharply since the first quarter of 2014 as declining prices for export commodities depressed mining investment and weakened the Australian dollar. The warning came as poor Chinese trade figures underlined the continued slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Exports were down 14.6% in March from a year ago while imports fell 12.3% on the same measure. The Australian dollar fell more than half a US cent to hover around the US76c mark. The World Bank predicted that a further slowdown in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, would affect Australia and its neighbours.

The bank’s east Asia and Pacific economic update said: “The significant negative impact on Australia and New Zealand, among the world’s largest commodity suppliers, would lead to indirect spillovers on the Pacific Island countries, given their tight links through trade, investment and aid.”. China’s growth pace in 2014 was the weakest since 1990 but the World Bank said things were set to get worse – just a month after the Chinese government cut its growth target to 7%. Chinese growth would ease from 7.4% in 2014, to 7.1% in 2015, 7% in 2016 and 6.9% in 2017.

China is a major buyer of Australian iron ore, which is used to make steel. The World Bank said: “In China, as it shifts to a consumption-led, rather than an investment-led, growth model, the main challenge is to implement reforms that will ensure sustainable growth in the long run.” Sudhir Shetty, the World Bank’s chief economist for east Asia and the Pacific region, said many risks remained for east Asia Pacific region “both in the short and long run”. The gloomy prediction comes as the treasurer, Joe Hockey, forecast the iron ore price dropping to $35 a tonne, which could see commonwealth revenue fall $25bn over four years.

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Again: they’re just going to say 7% growth no matter what.

China Growth Last Quarter Seen Worst Since Global Recession

While the central bank has cut interest rates twice in the last six months to cushion a slowdown, rising bad debts and a crackdown on shadow lending are making banks reluctant to lend to smaller firms. “It’s a structural problem that can’t be quickly addressed,” said Zhao Yang, the Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Nomura. “China’s financial system is not friendly to private businesses, and for the central bank, it has few short-term options but to cut required reserve ratios or benchmark interest rates further.” The benchmark one-year lending rate in China is now 5.35%, versus near-zero levels in the U.S., euro zone and Japan. The Wenzhou Private Finance Index, a measure of non-bank lending rates among private companies, is around 20%. State-owned enterprises, traditionally with easier access to credit, have seen output weighed by a restructuring drive and crackdown on corruption and pollution.

That leaves People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan juggling financial reforms to try to steer toward a more market-driven economy with the need to ensure growth doesn’t slow too fast. GDP data scheduled for Wednesday will probably show the economy expanded 7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 38 economists in a Bloomberg survey as of April 10. That would be the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2009, when China was hit by the global financial crisis, prompting then Premier Wen Jiabao to unleash a massive stimulus package that featured a record credit boom. To achieve this year’s growth target of about 7%, current Premier Li Keqiang may need to add policy support, something he flagged last month he stood ready to do. The consumer-prices index held steady at a 1.4% increase in March from a year earlier, giving room to act.

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Fighting in the streets more likely.

China’s Stock Surge May Very Well End In Tears (MarketWatch)

Once dismissed as a “ghost train,” the trading scheme — known variously as the “new China through train” or Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect — roared to life last week, helping send the Hang Seng Index HSI, +2.22% to a seven-year high. But this awakening brings not just welcome stock gains, but also fear of a rerun of the euphoric boom and bust of 2007, when a previous through-train plan was announced, only to be later shelved. This time, a possible bust may also challenge the Hong Kong dollar’s currency peg. Unlike the failed 2007 scheme, the new Stock Connect was designed to limit exuberant cross-border money flows, as it operates under a closed loop.

That may be easier said than done. Hong Kong holds a unique position as the first and only stop for mainland Chinese who want to buy foreign equities. This will not be lost on global funds which may want to hitch a ride on this through train, even if it is a roller coaster. All signs suggest the trading scheme will be extended. Hong Kong’s political leader, Chief Executive C.Y. Leung, has been quick to laud the “win-win” of deepening cooperation with Shanghai. Already, it is expected daily trading limits — 10.5 billion yuan ($1.69 billion) going south, and 13 billion yuan going north — will be expanded. Many were caught unaware by the by speed of the post-Easter-holiday surge in southbound investment. As these quotas were filled for the first time, the benchmark Hang Seng Index finished the week up 7.9%.

One explanation for the rush south was a new insurance-investment policy, which allows Chinese mutual funds to participate in the Stock Connect. Another is an inevitable catch-up, with the A-share (Shanghai) rally spilling into H-shares (Hong Kong) as mainland investors come south to pick up bargains. (See previous column on the divergence between the two markets.) Yet turnover figures suggest the Hang Seng Index’s surge past the 27,000 mark cannot be a result of the Stock Connect alone. On Thursday, for instance, volume reached a record 293.9 billion Hong Kong dollars ($37.9 billion), three times normal levels. Analysts are offering different explanations for the surge. Bank of America writes that we are witnessing a “Keynes beauty contest,” in which the jump in money flows is likely driven by some investors anticipating other investors’ reaction to government policy.

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“Sovereign and corporate borrowers outside America owe a record $9 trillion in the U.S. currency, much of which will need repaying in coming years..”

The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher (Bloomberg)

Investors speculating the dollar rally is fizzling out may be overlooking trillions of reasons why it will keep on going. There’s pent-up demand for the U.S. currency that will underpin years of appreciation because the world is “structurally short” the dollar, according to investor and former International Monetary Fund economist Stephen Jen. Sovereign and corporate borrowers outside America owe a record $9 trillion in the U.S. currency, much of which will need repaying in coming years, data from the Bank for International Settlements show. In addition, central banks that had reduced their holdings of the greenback are starting to reverse course, creating more demand. The dollar’s share of global foreign reserves shrank to a record 60% in 2011 from 73% a decade earlier, though it has since climbed back to 63%.

So, the short-term ebbs and flows caused by changes in Federal Reserve policy or economic data releases may be overwhelmed by these larger forces combining to fuel more appreciation, according to Jen, the London-based co-founder of SLJ Macro Partners LLP and the former head of currency research at Morgan Stanley. “Short-covering will continue to power the dollar higher,” said Jen, who predicts a 10% advance in the next three months to 96 cents per euro. “The dollar’s strength is not just about cyclical factors such as growth. The recent consolidation will likely prove to be temporary.” The U.S. currency was at $1.0593 per euro at 12:09 p.m. in Tokyo. The last time it traded at 96 cents was June 2002.

Most strategists and investors agree on the reasons for the dollar’s advance versus each of its major counterparts during the past year: the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates while other nations are loosening policy. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers including the euro and yen, has surged 20% since the middle of 2014. The gains stalled recently, sending the index down more than 3% in the three weeks through April 3, as Fed officials tempered investors’ expectations about the pace of rate increases.

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“Demand will peak way ahead of supply..”

Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil (Bloomberg)

Last fall, as oil prices crashed, Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s petroleum minister and the world’s de facto energy czar, went mum. He still popped up, as is his habit, at industry conferences on three continents. Yet from mid-September to the middle of November, while benchmark crude prices plunged 21% to a four-year low, Naimi didn’t utter a word in public. For 20 years, Bloomberg Markets reports in its May 2015 issue, the world’s $2 trillion oil market has parsed Naimi’s every syllable for signs of where supply and prices are heading. Twice during previous routs—amid the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and again when the global economy melted down 10 years later—Naimi reversed oil’s free fall by orchestrating production cutbacks among members of OPEC. This time, he went to ground.

At the cartel’s semiannual meeting on Nov. 27 in Vienna, Naimi shot down proposed output reductions supported by a majority of the 12 members in favor of a more daring strategy: keep pumping and wait for lower prices to force high-cost suppliers out of the market. Oil prices fell a further 10% by the end of the next day and kept going. Having averaged $110 a barrel from 2011 through the middle of 2014, Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped below $50 in January. “What they did was historic,” Daniel Yergin, the pre-eminent historian of the oil industry, told Bloomberg in February. “They said: ‘We resign. We quit. We’re no longer going to be the manager of the market. Let the market manage the market.’ That’s when you got this sort of shocked reaction that took prices down to those levels we saw.”

Naimi, 79, dominated the debate at the November meeting, according to officials briefed on the closed-door proceedings. He told his OPEC counterparts they should maintain output to protect market share from rising supplies of U.S. shale oil, which costs more to get out of the ground and thus becomes less viable as prices fall. In December, he said much the same thing in a press interview, arguing that it was “crooked logic” for low-cost producers such as Saudi Arabia to pump less to balance the market. Supply was only half the calculus, though. While the new Saudi stance was being trumpeted as a war on shale, Naimi’s not-so-invisible hand pushing prices lower also addressed an even deeper Saudi fear: flagging long-term demand.

Naimi and other Saudi leaders have worried for years that climate change and high crude prices will boost energy efficiency, encourage renewables, and accelerate a switch to alternative fuels such as natural gas, especially in the emerging markets that they count on for growth. They see how demand for the commodity that’s created the kingdom’s enormous wealth—and is still abundant beneath the desert sands—may be nearing its peak. This isn’t something the petroleum minister discusses in depth in public, given global concern about carbon emissions and efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. But Naimi acknowledges the trend. “Demand will peak way ahead of supply,” he told reporters in Qatar three years ago. If growth in oil consumption flattens out too soon, the transition could be wrenching for Saudi Arabia, which gets almost half its gross domestic product from oil exports.

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“There’s just no appetite in the euro zone for a grand bargain to take over Greece’s debt to the IMF and the ECB.”

Greece May Have Blown Best Hope Of Debt Deal (Reuters)

Even if it survives the next three months teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, Greece may have blown its best chance of a long-term debt deal by alienating its euro zone partners when it most needed their support. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist-led government has so thoroughly shattered creditors’ trust that solutions which might have been on offer a few weeks ago now seem out of reach. With a public debt equivalent to 175% of economic output and an economy struggling to pull out of a six-year depression, Athens needs all the goodwill it can summon to ease the burden. It owes 80% of that debt to official lenders after private bondholders took a hefty writedown in 2012.

Since outright debt forgiveness is politically impossible, the next best solution would be for Greece to pay off its expensive IMF loans early, redeem bonds held by the ECB and extend the maturity of loans from euro zone governments to secure lower interest rates for years to come. “This step would save Greece’s budget billions of euros, while reforming the Troika arrangement, eliminating the IMF’s and the ECB’s financial exposure to Greece,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who advocates such an arrangement. It would lower the effective interest rate on Greek debt to less than 2%, far less than Athens was paying before the euro zone debt crisis began in 2009, and radically reduce the principal amount to be repaid over the next decade, giving Greece fiscal breathing space to revive its economy.

And unlike ideas floated by Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis to swap euro zone loans for GDP-linked bonds and ECB holdings with perpetual bonds, paying out the IMF and the ECB early would be legal and supported by precedent. But if the economics make sense for Greece, the politics no longer add up for its partners. A euro zone official said there had been exploratory talks with the previous conservative-led Greek government about such a plan last year, before then Prime Minister Antonis Samaras chose to bring forward an election he lost rather than complete a bitterly unpopular bailout program. “Now it’s a political non-starter,” said a euro zone official. “There’s just no appetite in the euro zone for a grand bargain to take over Greece’s debt to the IMF and the ECB.”

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“..the newspaper will have difficulty justifying its headline and the content of its article.”

Greece Defends Bailout Tactics As Latest Deadline Looms (Guardian)

Greece has denied being intransigent in its dealings with eurozone officials, ahead of another crucial week for the cash-strapped country. Greece’s finance ministry dismissed on Sunday a report by a German newspaper which reported that eurozone officials were “disappointed” by Greece’s failure to come up with plans for economic reforms at last week’s talks in Brussels. The mood between Greece’s leftist government and its eurozone partners has remained tense during negotiations to determine whether or not the country qualifies for further financial aid from international lenders. Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) cited officials at last week’s meeting as saying they were shocked by the lack of progress, and that the new Greek representative just asked where the money was – “like a taxi driver” – and insisted his country would soon be bankrupt.

Eurozone officials disagreed with this assessment, saying Athens was still able to meet its international obligations, and regarded its ability to pay public sector wages and pensions as a domestic problem, according to the report. They deplored Greece’s unwillingness to discuss cuts to public sector pensions. The finance ministry in Athens hit back on Sunday, saying: “When the readers of FAS read the minutes … the newspaper will have difficulty justifying its headline and the content of its article. Such reports undermine the negotiation and Europe.” Greece made a €450m loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund last week. A further €747m payment is due on 12 May. There are fears that Athens could run out of cash in coming weeks. It needs to pay out more than €1.5bn of social security payments for April this week.

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said last week that talks between Greece and its creditors had been “difficult on almost a daily basis”. She added: “What really matters now is for Greece and the three institutions to get on with the work so we can identify together the measures that will take Greece out of the very bad economic situation it could be in if those measures are not taken.” A meeting of deputy finance ministers – called the Euro Working Group – last Thursday gave Athens six working days to come up with a convincing economic reform plan before eurozone finance ministers meet on 24 April to decide whether to unlock €7.2bn of bailout funds. Greece has been on the verge of bankruptcy since 2009 and has depended on rescue loans totalling €240bn from the EU and IMF to stay afloat.

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“..describing the falling oil price as “unambiguously good” for the economy…”

UK Economy Poised To Welcome ‘Deflation’ For First Time Since 1960 (Guardian)

Britain could fall into deflation this week for the first time in more than half a century, the result of an escalating supermarket price war and falling energy prices. Inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index, fell to zero in February for the first time since comparable records began in 1989. Estimates from the Office for National Statistics suggested that it was the lowest reading since 1960. The statistics office will release the latest inflation figures, for March, on Tuesday morning. City economists say it is going to be a close call between a zero reading and a 0.1% dip. Petrol prices rose 3.6% last month, reflecting a rebound in global oil prices, which is expected to push up the inflation rate by 0.1 %age points.

This will be offset, however, by the 5% cut in gas prices by British Gas, Britain’s largest energy supplier, and low food price inflation. Fierce competition from discount chains has forced the major supermarket groups to slash prices on basic items such as bread, with the discounter Aldi overtaking Waitrose to become the UK’s sixth-largest grocer recently. Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank, said: “While food price deflation of close to 4% year on year may sound extreme, this represents something of a relief after years of rapid price increases. More specifically, over the seven years between 2007 and 2013, the average annual pace of increase in food price inflation was 5% per year. Enjoy the cheap food and fuel while it lasts!”

Even if the UK avoids deflation in March, it will probably enter a period of falling prices at some point soon – following in the footsteps of other countries. Eurozone inflation has been negative since December, and the US rate turned negative in January before recovering to zero in February. There is no reason to panic, according to the Bank of England and City analysts. They claim any period of UK deflation is likely to prove temporary, unlike the deflationary spiral in Japan, where people have lived with falling prices for two decades. Bank of England governor Mark Carne, has sought to allay fears that Britain faces a 1930s-style deflationary spiral, describing the falling oil price as “unambiguously good” for the economy. An oil glut pushed the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, down by more than 50% from last summer to a six-year low earlier this year.

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“It is like the 1970s again, when waves of wealthy people left Britain and it was a disaster..”

Sales Of London Luxury Homes Drop 80% In One Year (FT)

Wealthy foreigners are shunning London’s luxury housing market following Labour’s announcement that it will end their “non-dom” status if it wins the UK’s general election, according to estate agents. Property deals have begun to fall through in the days since Ed Miliband laid out his plans, they revealed, with some foreign residents also putting their homes up for sale and fleeing the UK. The announcement, combined with Labour’s plan to introduce a mansion tax on high-value homes, has led many foreigners to conclude that the UK is no longer an attractive and reliable home for the rich, agents said. During the past two years Conservative chancellor George Osborne has also made tax changes that have increased the burden on the affluent.

The introduction of capital gains tax on the proceeds of property sales came into force on April 6 and is believed by agents to have contributed to owners’ jitters. Ed Mead, a director of Douglas & Gordon estate agents, said his company had carried out 37 valuations in the past month for owners of high-end homes who were thinking of selling up, when the normal level is about six. “It is like the 1970s again, when waves of wealthy people left Britain and it was a disaster,” Mr Mead said. Sales of homes worth more than £2m have dropped by 80% in the past year, according to Douglas & Gordon.

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Commodities are a disaster across the board.

Quarter Of World’s Copper Mines Operating At A Loss (Reuters)

Nearly a quarter of the world’s major copper mines are running in the red, even after producers including Codelco and BHP Billiton engage in their deepest cost-cutting in years, according to a Reuters analysis. A 17% slump since last July has pushed copper futures on the London Metals Exchange to under $6,000 a ton, the lowest since 2009, is the first major test of producers’ margins since the global economic crisis, forcing a new reckoning after five years of relatively consistent profitability. Codelco, the Chilean state miner that produces about 8% of the world’s copper, will review the cost reduction plan at its Salvador mine as it prepares to restart operations there after torrential rains shuttered the complex in March, said a source close to the state-run miner.

The company has an ambitious target to slash total costs by as much as $1 billion this year. Salvador produced copper at a cost of some $11,439 per tonne in the fourth quarter last year, the highest out of 91 mines analyzed by Thomson Reuters unit GFMS as part of its Copper Mine Economics database. The mines account for more than two-thirds of global output, and almost a quarter of them had production costs late last year above current prices. The GFMS analysis, which is based on quarterly and semi-annual filings by 26 mining companies, gives the deepest insight yet into the voracious pace of cost-cutting by miners late last year as the sell-off in copper quickened, a hot topic at CRU Copper’s conference in Santiago this week.

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Austria’s pulling off quite a feat. In almost total silence.

Bundesbank Tells German Heta Creditors To Expect 50% Loss (Bloomberg)

German banks should expect to lose at least half of their investments in bonds of Austrian bad bank Heta Asset Resolution and make the appropriate provisions, the Bundesbank director responsible for bank supervision said. “I think this situation has to be taken seriously by the German banks,” Andreas Dombret, also a member of the board of the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism, said in an interview in Johannesburg on Friday. “It’s advisable and recommendable to take provisions on this, and if I were to put a number on this I would say it should be a minimum of a 50% provision for potential losses.” German lenders and insurers have emerged as the biggest creditors of the bad bank set up after the collapse of Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank, with about €7.1 billion at risk.

Heta was taken over last month by Austrian regulators, who ordered a debt moratorium and said they will impose losses on creditors to fund the bank’s wind-down. Bayerische Landesbank, a former owner of Hypo Alpe, has the biggest exposure among German banks, as around €2.4 billion of loans to the former subsidiary weren’t repaid. Commerzbank, Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, NordLB, and a German unit of Dexia all own Heta debt. While BayernLB has said it will set aside provisions equal to about half of what Heta owes it, Dombret’s recommendation goes further than some of the disclosed provisions other banks have made. Deutsche Pfandbriefbank said it wrote down its €395 million investment by €120 million, or 30%. Austria’s Hypo NOE Gruppe Bank said it provisioned its €225 million holding by “about a quarter.”

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“The massive hunt was used by the Swedish Defense Ministry to justify a six billion kronor ($696 million) hike in defense spending..”

Sweden Confirms Mystery ‘Russian Sub’…Was In Fact A Workboat (RT)

The unknown foreign vessel the Swedish Navy searched for near Stockholm last autumn was actually a “workboat,” a senior navy official says. Local media had alleged a hunt was on to try and find a Russian submarine, which was believed to be in the area. Swedish Rear Admiral Anders Grenstad told the Swedish TT news agency on Saturday that what was thought to be a vessel or a foreign submarine was actually just a “workboat.” The Swedish Navy changed the wording from “probable submarine” to “non-submarine” when referring to the reconnaissance mission connected to the unidentified vessel spotted in the Stockholm archipelago. The massive hunt was used by the Swedish Defense Ministry to justify a six billion kronor ($696 million) hike in defense spending between 2016 and 2020.

The drama started after an amateur photograph of an alleged underwater vessel of unidentified origin was sent to the ministry. The man who took the photo raised the alarm because he thought he saw the object surface and disappear again. Sweden undertook an intense one-week search in late October, looking for possible “foreign underwater activity” near Stockholm. During the operation, the Swedish Navy reportedly used over 200 troops, helicopters, stealth ships and minesweepers to search the waters of the Baltic Sea. During the search, the Swedish media exaggerated the story, claiming country’s navy was looking for a submarine in the Baltic Sea, which allegedly belonged to Russia.

Meanwhile, naval officials from Sweden and Russia maintained there was no substance to the reports, which was confirmed by Grenstad. “From the information we have, we cannot draw the same conclusion as the media that there is a damaged U-boat. We have no information about an emergency signal or the use of an emergency channel,” the navy official said. A full report of the search operations will be published later this spring, the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet reported.

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“Ukraine’s total debt is estimated at $50 billion, and it has to service about $10 billion of that debt this year..”

Default In Ukraine ‘Virtual Certainty’: S&P Cuts Rating To ‘CC’ (RT)

Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to CC, a notch lower than the previous CCC- level. A default on Ukraine’s foreign-currency debt is a “a virtual certainty,” according to the agency. The ratings agency has said that the outlook remains negative. Ukraine’s foreign currency rating is the world’s second worst, behind Argentina which has a rating of ‘SD’. It is still ahead of Venezuela, which S&P has assigned a ‘CCC’ rating. “The negative outlook reflects the deteriorating macroeconomic environment and growing pressure on the financial sector, as well as our view that default on Ukraine’s foreign currency debt is virtually inevitable,” the ratings agency said in a statement.

Ukraine’s total debt is estimated at $50 billion, and it has to service about $10 billion of that debt this year, including corporate and sovereign loans and bonds. It will receive about $40 billion in IMF loans in the next four years, as well as separate loan guarantees from the US, Europe, and other allies. Public sector debt rose to 71% of Ukraine’s gross domestic product, and is due to rise to 94% of GDP in 2015, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

Paying back debt is becoming more difficult for Ukraine as the national currency, the hryvnia, continues to plummet in value. It was the worst performing currency in 2014, and lost more than 34% on February 5, when the Central bank said it could no longer support the beleaguered currency. On February 5 the currency hit a historic low of 24.5 per 1 USD, and at the time of publication has only recovered slightly, to 23.4 versus the US dollar. Officially, foreign currency reserves stood at $5.6 billion at the end of March, compared to the $36 billion level in 2011.

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Rousseff had better wisen up and leave. But that would open her up to prosecution.

Protests Across Brazil Seek Ouster Of President (AP)

Nationwide demonstrations calling for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff swept Brazil for the second day in less than a month, though turnout at Sunday’s protests appeared down, prompting questions about the future of the movement. A poll published over the weekend suggested the majority of Brazilians support opening impeachment proceedings against Rousseff, whose second term in office has been buffeted by a corruption scandal at Brazil’s largest company, oil giant Petrobras, as well as a stalled economy, a sliding currency and political infighting. Only 13% of survey respondents evaluated Rousseff’s administration positively.

Sunday’s protests, which took place in cities from Belem, in the northern Amazonian rainforest region, to Curitiba in the south, were organized mostly via social media by an assortment of groups. Most were calling for Rousseff’s impeachment, but others’ demands ranged for urging looser gun control laws to a military coup. While last month’s protests drew substantial crowds in several large cities, Sunday’s turnout was lackluster. In Rio, several thousand people marched along the golden sands of Copacabana beach, many dressed in the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag. The March 15 protest, by contrast, drew tens of thousands. In the opposition stronghold of Sao Paulo, about 100,000 people marched on the city’s main thoroughfare, according to an estimate by the respected Datafolha polling agency.

The crowd was less than half the size of last month’s demonstration here, when more than 200,000 people turned out, making it the biggest demonstration in Sao Paulo since 1984 rallies demanding the end of the military dictatorship. “I was on the avenue on March 15 and without a doubt, today’s demonstration was much smaller,” said Antonio Guglielmi, a 61-year-old sales representative for construction materials company, vowing, “I will keep coming back to demonstrations like this one — big or small — because it is the best way for us to make our voices heard and demand an end to the Dilma government and the PT and end to corruption. The country cannot go on like this.”

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New Zealand’s set to land very hard.

Auckland Housing Bubble ‘Floats Off Into Its Own Orbit’ (Hickey)

If you are reading this and you don’t own Auckland property, then it would be a good idea not to read any further because it will probably ruin your Sunday. Figures released this week by Barfoot & Thompson, Auckland’s biggest real estate agency group, confirmed everyone’s worst fears (or biggest hopes if they owned property in the city). Auckland’s housing market has officially floated off its New Zealand moorings into its own orbit. The Reserve Bank can now have no doubts or caveats around the seasonality or size of the trend — the housing market in New Zealand’s biggest city is booming. The average three bedroom house price on the isthmus of Auckland that used to be the old Auckland Council rose over NZ$1 million for the first time in March.

The average house price in West Auckland rose 20.5% over the last year to NZ$632,032. Barfoot sold 420 homes worth more than NZ$1 million each in the 31 days of March, while selling just 300 homes for less than NZ$500,000. Barfoot’s agents would have collected almost NZ$1 million of commissions each day in March as they sold over NZ$1.2 billion worth of houses over the month. Auckland house prices are now rising at double digit rates on an annual basis, while the rest of the country is growing at less than 5%, or not at all. Even in Christchurch, house price inflation is subdued as a wall of new houses hits the market to soak up demand and replace quake-damaged buildings. Prices are still falling in some regional cities where populations and work are drying up.

Unfortunately for the Reserve Bank, taxpayers outside of Auckland and Auckland’s renters, there is no relief in sight. Net migration is rollicking along at record highs and at least half of new migrants end up in Auckland, or just as importantly, aren’t leaving Auckland. Longer term fixed mortgage rates are low and falling. Employment growth is strong and rental property investors are stocked up with plenty of fresh equity to gear up with much bigger and often interest-only mortgages. New mortgage lending is growing at over 20% per year.

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Bubbles have their own dynamics. Politicians won’t touch them.

40% Of Houses In Auckland Are Bought By Investors (Interest.co.nz)

All we are hearing is about supply and what’s being done there, through such strategies as the Auckland Housing Accord. In his Radio NZ interview the PM banged on and on about what the Government is doing to help supply. There’s two issues here: One, it will take years not months to ramp up the supply of Auckland housing. Two, the Government and other politicians can happily talk and talk and talk about supply because it’s essentially a positive thing to talk about. We’ll build houses, and we’ll create jobs and people will have places to live. Marvellous. But, dear politicians, there’s another side to this and it’s the side you don’t want a bar of because if you are seen to be doing anything about this, well, then it would be negative. Yes, I’m talking about demand.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler recently suggested that about 40% of houses in Auckland were being bought by investors. Now, whatever you want to say about Auckland’s perceived housing supply shortage, if 40% of the available houses are being bought as investments then clearly there’s a hell of a demand issue as well. But what’s the Government doing about that? They could immediately do something about about the high levels of immigration that have seen a net 55,000 people arrive in New Zealand – about 25,000 of them in Auckland – in the past 12 months. They could do something to limit the numbers of offshore-based investors buying properties by introducing a rule that any overseas buyer of a house has to come and actually live in the house, or alternatively that offshore investors must build new houses.

They could introduce capital gains tax on investment properties. They won’t. Why not? Because these things would be unpopular. It’s much easier to talk about building new houses than any measures that might discourage investors from pumping more and more money into the inflated Auckland market. So, we’ll keep talking and talking and talking about supply. And who knows, if enough people believe the mantra then maybe there really will be a whole lot more houses built in Auckland eventually – possibly just in time to coincide with a global event that sees our 40% of investor-buyers take fright of the housing market and disappear overnight.

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But of course. With exports plunging, the housing bubble is what keeps up appearances.

New Zealand PM Denies There Is A Housing Bubble (NZ Herald)

Prime Minister John Key has again denied there is a housing crisis or bubble developing in Auckland, despite figures from Barfoot and Thompson last week showing average prices hitting record highs of over NZ$1 million in the old Auckland Council area of the isthmus and the Government itself seeing a supply shortage in Auckland of more than 20,000 dwellings. Key told Morning Report the current double-digit price rises were not sustainable, but the Government had already taken action to free up land supply in Auckland and that restricting migration would frustrate employers looking for skilled staff. “In the end, it’s not sustainable for house prices to rise 10-12-13% per year. The only answer to that is to do what what we’re doing, which is allocate new land and build more houses,” he said, adding continued inflation “forever” at that level would lead to a “bubble”, although he denied it was currently a bubble.

He said the Government’s moves to introduce Special Housing Areas to circumvent the Metropolitan Urban Limit would add new housing supply to the market and slow that double-digit house price inflation, although this would take time while the necessary infrastructure and housing was built. He would not give a time-frame for the supply-driven slowdown in Auckland house price inflation, but “sooner as opposed to later is my guess.” Key referred to the recent supply-driven slowdown in Christchurch house price inflation and downplayed suggestions of tightening migration rules, saying the Government would have to reduce the numbers coming in for skilled occupations and for construction if it was to use the migration lever.

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Must read.

The Shadowy History of the Secret Bank that Runs the World (LeBor)

The world’s most exclusive club has eighteen members. They gather every other month on a Sunday evening at 7 p.m. in conference room E in a circular tower block whose tinted windows overlook the central Basel railway station. Their discussion lasts for one hour, perhaps an hour and a half. Some of those present bring a colleague with them, but the aides rarely speak during this most confidential of conclaves. The meeting closes, the aides leave, and those remaining retire for dinner in the dining room on the eighteenth floor, rightly confident that the food and the wine will be superb. The meal, which continues until 11 p.m. or midnight, is where the real work is done. The protocol and hospitality, honed for more than eight decades, are faultless. Anything said at the dining table, it is understood, is not to be repeated elsewhere.

Few, if any, of those enjoying their haute cuisine and grand cru wines— some of the best Switzerland can offer—would be recognized by passers-by, but they include a good number of the most powerful people in the world. These men—they are almost all men—are central bankers. They have come to Basel to attend the Economic Consultative Committee (ECC) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which is the bank for central banks. Its current members [ZH: as of 2013] include Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve; Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England; Mario Draghi, of the ECB; Zhou Xiaochuan of the Bank of China; and the central bank governors of Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Canada, India, and Brazil. Jaime Caruana, a former governor of the Bank of Spain, the BIS’s general manager, joins them.

In early 2013, when this book went to press, King, who is due to step down as governor of the Bank of England in June 2013, chaired the ECC. The ECC, which used to be known as the G-10 governors’ meeting, is the most influential of the BIS’s numerous gatherings, open only to a small, select group of central bankers from advanced economies. The ECC makes recommendations on the membership and organization of the three BIS committees that deal with the global financial system, payments systems, and international markets. The committee also prepares proposals for the Global Economy Meeting and guides its agenda.

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Apr 092015
 
 April 9, 2015  Posted by at 11:23 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »


Harris&Ewing Treasury Building, Fifteenth Street, Washington, DC 1918

The Oil Industry’s $26 Billion Life Raft: Derivatives (Bloomberg)
Oil Tumbles 6.6%, Erasing This Year’s Gains (Reuters)
Exxon, BP in Deal Spotlight After Shell Buys BG Group (Bloomberg)
Shell-BG Deal Could Face Bumpy Ride From Partner Rights (Reuters)
Bankers Set To Reap $155million In Fees On Shell-BG Takeover (Bloomberg)
The US Government’s $800 Billion Gamble on Student Loans (Bloomberg)
Bernanke-Summers II: Savings Glut, Investment Shortfall or Monty Python? (Keen)
How China Wants to Overhaul its $16 Trillion Corporate Monster (Bloomberg)
Europe’s Manhandling Of Greece Is A Strategic Gift To Putin (AEP)
Athens Welcomes Germany’s Response To ‘War Debt’ Demand (Guardian)
Piketty Says EU Politics Risks Driving Greece Out of Euro (Bloomberg)
‘Odious Debt’ Is Finally Here: Greece To Write Off ‘Illegal’ Debt (Zero Hedge)
Tsipras Asks Europe To End Russia Sanctions, Cites ‘New Cold War’ (Guardian)
Turkish Stream Will Make Greece Europe’s Energy Hub – Putin (RT)
Russia Weighs Pre-Payment To Greece For Turkish Stream Pipeline (Reuters)
Khazin: Global Recession To Exceed The Great Depression By 2.5 Times (FRU)
US Cops Killed More People In One Month Than The UK Did In 100 Years (TFTP)
New Zealand’s Top Economic Risk Is Australia: PM Key (CNBC)
House Prices Represent Success In Life (NZ Herald)

We’re all a casino now.

The Oil Industry’s $26 Billion Life Raft: Derivatives (Bloomberg)

For U.S. shale drillers, the crash in oil prices came with a $26 billion safety net. That’s how much they stand to get paid on insurance they bought to protect themselves against a bear market – as long as prices stay low. The flipside is that those who sold the price hedges now have to make good. At the top of the list are the same Wall Street banks that financed the biggest energy boom in U.S. history, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. While it’s standard practice for them to sell some of that risk to third parties, it’s nearly impossible to identify who exactly is on the hook because there are no rules requiring disclosure of all transactions. The buyers come from groups like hedge funds, airlines, refiners and utilities.

“The folks who were willing to sell it were left holding the bag when prices moved,” said John Kilduff at Again Capital. The swift decline in U.S. oil prices – $107.26 on June 20, $46.39 seven months later – caught market participants by surprise. Harold Hamm, the billionaire founder of Continental Resources Inc., cashed out his company’s protection in October, betting on a rebound. Instead, crude kept falling. Other companies purchased insurance. The fair value of hedges held by 57 U.S. companies in the Bloomberg Intelligence North America Independent Explorers and Producers index rose to $26 billion as of Dec. 31, a fivefold increase from the end of September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Though it’s difficult to determine who will ultimately lose money on the trades and how much, a handful of drillers do reveal the names of their counterparties, offering a glimpse of how the risk of falling oil prices moved through the financial system. More than a dozen energy companies say they buy hedges from their lenders, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of America. At the end of 2014, JPMorgan had about $671.5 million worth of derivatives exposure to five energy companies, including Pioneer, Concho, PDC. and Antero, according to company records. That’s the amount JPMorgan would have owed if the contracts were settled Dec. 31, not including any offsetting trades the bank made. It’s a similar story for Wells Fargo, which was on the hook for $460.9 million worth of oil and natural gas derivatives for companies including Carrizo, Pioneer, Antero, Concho and PDC, according to regulatory filings.

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Oh no! What happened? 😉

Oil Tumbles 6.6%, Erasing This Year’s Gains (Reuters)

Oil futures settled nearly 7% lower on Wednesday after government data showed the largest weekly increase in U.S. crude inventories since 2001 and a day after Saudi Arabia reported record production in March. U.S. May crude closed down $3.56, or 6.6%, at $50.42 a barrel. The commodity has erased 2015’s gains and is now down 5.4% on the year. Meanwhile, Brent May crude was down $3.30 at $56.90 a barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories surged 10.95 million barrels to a record 482.39 million in the week to April 3, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report. A Reuters survey of analysts had yielded a forecast for a build of 3.4 million barrels.

“The report is very bearish with the large crude oil inventory build and the somewhat surprising rise in gasoline inventories,” said John Kilduff at Again Capital. Crude oil inventories at the Cushing OK storage hub and delivery point for the U.S. crude contract rose by 1.2 million barrels, the EIA said, a much bigger jump than expected. U.S. crude oil imports rose by 869,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 7.7 million bpd. Gasoline inventories rose 817,000 barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1 million barrel drop, as refiners increased capacity utilization. The reported build sent U.S. RBOB gasoline futures went into sharp retreat, down 9.20 cents at $1.7689 a gallon. The EIA data arrived a day after Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said that Saudi Arabia’s output would likely remain around 10 million bpd after posting a record high of 10.3 million bpd in March.

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Survival of the limping.

Exxon, BP in Deal Spotlight After Shell Buys BG Group (Bloomberg)

Now that Royal Dutch Shell Plc has made its move for BG Group, Exxon Mobil and BP could contemplate deals – perhaps even with each other. Speculation of an Exxon-BP combination surfaced last year after oil prices declined sharply, increasing the appeal of big mergers that could yield massive cost savings. BP has largely put behind it the legal morass surrounding the 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill. Still, the $124 billion company remains among the cheapest major producers relative to estimated profit, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. There are, of course, other targets for Exxon and BP that have gotten less expensive in recent months. Anadarko, Cabot, Pioneer, Occidental and Tullow are among those that have risen to the top of analysts’ lists.

Their market values span Tullow’s $4.2 billion to Occidental’s $59 billion. Exxon is valued at $353 billion. The oil slump of the late 1990s sparked a merger boom. BP was the one that kicked things off when it announced plans to buy Amoco. Exxon and Chevron also struck deals at the time. Should prices remain depressed, history could repeat itself. “There’s the potential for a lower-for-longer scenario when it comes to oil prices, which suggests that the majors should at least be considering the playbook they used at the turn of the last century,” said Eric Gordon, a Baltimore-based energy analyst for Brown Advisory, which manages $52 billion. “You really have to spend time thinking about not just the next chess move, but two and three moves out.”

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Who knew what?

Shell-BG Deal Could Face Bumpy Ride From Partner Rights (Reuters)

Royal Dutch Shell’s agreed $70 billion takeover of rival BG Group could trigger pre-emption rights in key oil and gas fields that would erode the potential benefits of the deal for the Anglo-Dutch oil giant. Shell said a main driver of its bid for BG Group was the gas-focused British group’s position in Brazil. Two exploration blocks, named BM-S-9 and BM-S-11, account for almost all the value of BG’s Brazil assets. But, BG said in its annual report published last week: “In certain specific circumstances, it is possible that BG Group’s partners in BM-S-9 (Petrobras and Repsol Sinopec Brasil) have a right of first refusal to acquire BG Group’s interest .. in the event of a change of control of BG Group plc”.

When Shell Chief Executive Ben van Beurden was asked about change of control provisions on an analyst call on Wednesday, he said these could trigger pre-emption rights in relation to BG’s stake in Karachaganak, a field in Kazakhstan. He did not mention BM-S-9, which contains the Sapinhoa and Lapa fields. Analysts said that failing to secure BG’s stake in Karachaganak might not affect the key strategic drivers of the deal. However, not buying BM-S-9 would be a big loss. “Brazil is central to the acquisition,” said Neill Morton, oil analyst at Investec. “Sapinhoa is pretty important. It’s one that Shell is looking to get its hands on.”

Block BM-S-9 is estimated to contain billions of barrels of oil that can be extracted at moderate costs. Analysts at Bernstein estimated last month that Sapinhoa could be worth $6.5 billion, while Morton said the Reading-based group’s stake in the block could be worth $10 billion. Tom Ellacott, head of the corporate analysis team at research group Wood Mackenzie, said a failure to secure BM-S-9 probably would not be a deal-breaker but would likely force a rethinking of the terms of the deal.

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How many jobs will be lost through this deal?

Bankers Set To Reap $155million In Fees On Shell-BG Takeover (Bloomberg)

Robey Warshaw, a two-year-old investment bank with less than ten employees, is about to share a massive payday with two of Wall Street’s largest firms. As an adviser to BG Group on its sale to Shell, the London-based firm will split as much as $90 million in fees with Goldman Sachs, according to estimates from Freeman & Co. Because of its size, Robey Warshaw may receive a smaller chunk of that amount. Also set for a large payout is Bank of America, which was the only adviser to Shell and could reap as much as $65 million for its work. The 47 billion-pound ($70 billion) deal is the largest takeover announced in 2015, and the oil and gas industry’s biggest merger in at least a decade.

Robey Warshaw is one of a handful of boutiques – including Zaoui and LionTree – that have sprung up in recent years as some of New York and London’s top dealmakers left major institutions, winning mandates on large deals even without the resources of a major bank. Started in 2013 by London bankers Simon Robey and Simon Warshaw – veterans of Morgan Stanley and UBS – Robey Warshaw also served as an adviser to AstraZeneca as it resisted a takeover approach from Pfizer.

Shell’s purchase is adding to what’s proving to be an already robust year for M&A advisers – with about $327 billion in deals struck by European companies alone. That total is set to rise as the euro’s decline against the dollar and renewed confidence in an economic recovery make Europe appealing for global acquirers. Goldman Sachs, which also advised on Ball Corp.’s acquisition of Rexam, holds the top spot for merger advisory services in Europe this year. Bank of America is ranked second while its role on the Shell-BG deal has vaulted Robey Warshaw to third, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

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“But I think the problem is that we’ve got double-digit delinquencies on student loans, and the problem only seems to be getting worse.”

The US Government’s $800 Billion Gamble on Student Loans (Bloomberg)

One of the big potential costs to U.S. taxpayers over the next years is an enterprise that’s currently estimated to be even a bit profitable for them: financing student loans. Right now, the federal government borrows money at interest rates that are lower than the rates it charges students. That means the U.S. makes about 14 cents on every dollar lent, according to the Congressional Budget Office. It’s a win-win for the government – make a little cash while helping young Americans pursue an education so they can earn more down the road. There’s no guarantee this will stay this way, however, if more students start to delay or renege on their obligations. While the CBO expects the government to continue to make money on the business until at least 2025, gains are forecasted to shrink.

On subsidized student loans (the most basic kind), the government is forecast to start losing money as early as next year. The CBO already revised up its estimate of how much the loans will cost the government for 2016-2025 by 30%, citing higher estimates of the number of loans in default (which in turn would mean the government won’t be able to collect on as many payments as initially thought). There’s already almost $800 billion in student loans that’s directly on the government’s balance sheet, according to Wall Street experts who advise the U.S. Treasury on its borrowing strategy. And that represents a ballooning share of the debt that the government has issued. Student loans loans in February were worth more than half the value of outstanding Treasury debt with a maturity of 10 years or more.

“If you were fairly confident that all those loans are going to be paid back, then it wouldn’t be that big of an issue,” said Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont. “But I think the problem is that we’ve got double-digit delinquencies on student loans, and the problem only seems to be getting worse.” Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show that 11.3% of student loans were delinquent in the final three months of 2014, up from 11.1% in the prior quarter. The federal student loan default rate declined to 13.7% for borrowers who would have begun paying in 2011, the Education Department said in September. The rate was 14.7% a year before.

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Steve at his finest: “..even I didn’t fully appreciate how tiny the intellectual gene pool behind these ideas was.

Bernanke-Summers II: Savings Glut, Investment Shortfall or Monty Python? (Keen)

A Twitter follower accused me of being “a little nasty” with my last blog post. He was right, and I don’t apologize. I’ve spent 40 years trying to highlight just how limited the dominant ideas in economics are. But even I didn’t fully appreciate how tiny the intellectual gene pool behind these ideas was. Then, as I started to write a post on the economic issues in the Bernanke-Summers debate, I re-read Summers’ original secular stagnation post and realized that, not merely were the ideas coming from a single perspective, most of the major proponents of these ideas came not only from the same University (MIT), and even the same seminar (Class 14462, conducted by Stanley Fisher). Think of the dominant names in economics and there are a few obvious entries: Ben Bernanke; Larry Summers; Paul Krugman; Olivier Blanchard; Ken Rogoff.

Summers acknowledged all of them (bar Krugman) as classmates from Stanley Fisher’s seminar, while Krugman did his PhD at MIT (as did the other dominant macro textbook author—and ex-advisor to George W. Bush and Mitt Romney—Gregory Mankiw). This goes well beyond the dominance of economics by a single school of thought, and I felt that “in-breeding” was a nasty but evocatively accurate way to express just how narrow the so-called “economic debate” had become—and therefore how justified were student calls for pluralism in economics. Hell, we don’t simply need pluralism: we need to hear opinions from people who didn’t attend Stanley Fisher’s lectures. Maybe being nasty about this might get people to realize why economics needs to change.

To see how inbred this Bernanke-Summers debate really is, let’s look at the explanations they’re putting forward for the persistently disappointing growth rates being experienced around the world—even in countries that, like America, can now claim to have recovered from the financial crisis of 2007. Bernanke is blaming a “savings glut”, and directs the blame at savers in countries like China:

My conclusion was that a global excess of desired saving over desired investment, emanating in large part from China and other Asian emerging market economies and oil producers like Saudi Arabia, was a major reason for low global interest rates. (Bernanke in “Why are interest rates so low, part 3: The Global Savings Glut”)

Summers, on the other hand, argued that there is a secular decline in the level of investment, coming from a number of long-term factors, including lower population growth, lower rates of technical progress, and rising inequality:

Slower population and possibly technological growth means a reduction in the demand for new capital goods… Rising inequality operates to raise the share of income going to those with a lower propensity to spend… (Summers in “Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis’”.

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“The main goal of the reforms is not to dramatically reduce the state sector. It is to have a better-performing state sector.”

How China Wants to Overhaul its $16 Trillion Corporate Monster (Bloomberg)

How do you dismantle a $16 trillion government behemoth that controls everything from nuclear power plants to tourism kiosks? That’s the task facing Chinese President Xi Jinping as part of the biggest shake-up of state-run companies since the late 1990s, when millions lost their jobs as unprofitable units were sold or shuttered and bigger companies listed their best parts on the stock market. This time, instead of using the shock therapy of mass privatizations championed by Britain in the 1980s, China is trying to improve state industries without putting thousands out of work during an economic slowdown. Policymakers are proposing to strip government holdings from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, or Sasac, the agency that also regulates the more than 100 non-financial companies.

“When China today talks about SOE reform they do not have in mind anything like what we saw in Eastern Europe in the 1990s or other emerging markets or the U.K. in the Thatcher era,” said Andrew Batson at GaveKal Dragonomics in Beijing. “The main goal of the reforms is not to dramatically reduce the state sector. It is to have a better-performing state sector.” The proposed overhaul would bundle companies by industry and hand their control to state asset-management firms, the people familiar with the plans said last month, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The changes would reduce Sasac’s role to that of regulator.

Sasac was created in 2003 under the State Council, China’s cabinet, to oversee government conglomerates. The commission supervises non-financial companies that build weapons and spacecraft, fly planes, forge steel, mine coal, distribute salt, trade silk and buy art, among much else. Many of its units have stakes in joint ventures with private firms, spreading their tentacles throughout the economy. “Sasac is a gigantic failure,” said Nicholas Lardy, who’s studied China for more than three decades and is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The return on assets is going down at state-owned firms under Sasac’s watch and that’s translating into a “big drag on economic growth,” he said in an interview in Beijing.

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Long piece from Ambrose. He can’t make up his mind who he dislikes more, Brussels or Putin. “The Greek government has understood that it cannot find any common ground with the Eurogroup and the ECB, unless it accepts unconditional capitulation..”

Europe’s Manhandling Of Greece Is A Strategic Gift To Putin (AEP)

The European Union has presented Vladimir Putin with an irresistible strategic prize, on a platter. By insisting rigidly that Greece’s radical-Left government repudiate its electoral pledges and submit to ritual fealty – even on demands of little economic merit, or that might be unwise in the particular anthropology of a post-Ottoman society – it has pushed the Greek premier into the arms of a revanchist Kremlin. The visit of Alexis Tsipras to Moscow has been a festival of fraternity. On Wednesday he laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and spoke of the joint struggle against Fascism, and the unstated foe. The squalid subject of money was of course avoided. “Greece is not a beggar,” he said. “The visit could not have come at a better time,” said Mr Putin, purring like the cat who ate the cream.

EU sanctions against Russia will expire in June unless all 28 states agree to roll them over, and Mr Tsipras has already signalled his intent. “We need to leave behind this vicious cycle,” he said. “Greece is a sovereign country with an unquestionable right to implement a multi-dimensional foreign policy and exploit its geopolitical role,” he added, for good measure. A Greek veto on sanctions will embolden Hungary’s Viktor Orban to join the revolt, this time in earnest. His country has just secured a €10bn credit line from Russia to expand its Paks nuclear power plant, a deal described as a “purchase of political influence” by a leading critic. Slovakia is quietly slipping away from what was once a united (if fractious) EU front to deter further Kremlin moves into Ukraine. There is safety in numbers for this evolving constellation, what Mr Putin’s foes would call the EU’s internal “Fifth Column”.

Brussels can bring one to heel, but not a clutch of rebels. It is becoming powerless. Needless to say, a failure to renew sanctions at a time when the Donbass is still under the control of Mr Putin’s proxy forces would drive a wedge between the US and Europe, further draining the life-blood from the Atlantic alliance and what remains of the Western security structure. But it does not stop there. The EU project is close to unravelling in the East. We thought we knew where we stood when the final decision was made in June of 2003 – in Athens of all places – to admit the former captive nations of the Soviet bloc, all clamouring to join what seemed to be an enlightened club of democracies under the rule of law.

I was there for The Telegraph when Tony Blair stood at the Stoa of Attalos, near the colonnades of Socrates and Plato, and exalted in their newly-won freedom from “dictatorship and repression”. Now we have a government in Budapest that scoffs at press freedom and judicial independence, and a government in Athens that is desperately defending its own democracy against the EU itself. Mr Putin merely has to bide his time and the EU’s southeastern flank will fall apart. Europe’s creditor powers have warned Greece not to trifle with them, or to play off Brussels against Moscow, but seem strangely unaware that they too must make concessions to prevent matters spinning out of control, for them as well as for Greece.

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Got to love it. If confusion is their aim, boy are they doing a fine job.

Athens Welcomes Germany’s Response To ‘War Debt’ Demand (Guardian)

The row between Germany and Greece over war reparations has intensified after Athens hit back at Berlin’s description of its demand for a staggering €278.7bn (£202bn) in compensation as “stupid”. Insisting that Greece’s leftist-led administration had “a historical duty” to seek compensation for atrocities committed by Nazi forces between 1941-44, the politician in charge of the campaign said on Wednesday that he welcomed the German reaction. “The response may have been ‘this is foolish, you have plucked this number out of the blue’ but for me it was also very positive,” Costas Isychos, the deputy defence minister, told the Guardian. “There was an admission that despite disagreeing with the figure a debt is owed, and that is very good.”

On Tuesday, Germany’s economy minister and vice-chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, not only branded the demand boneheaded, but suggested it had been motivated by Athens’ interest in squeezing a bit of leeway out of its eurozone partners to overcome its debt crisis. “And this leeway has nothing to do with the second world war or reparations,” said Gabriel, who leads the Social Democrats, the junior partner in the ruling coalition of the chancellor, Angela Merkel. Berlin has provided the bulk of the €240bn bailout that has kept the insolvent Greek economy afloat since 2010. But while the claim exceeds that amount, Isychos vehemently denied it was linked to the country’s economic plight, or the tough austerity measures Berlin has pressed for in exchange for international aid.

He implied the figure could in fact be much bigger when interest payments were also taken into account. “We will push for this as much as we can,” he said, describing the war reparations as “an open wound” for a country that had suffered one of the most brutal occupations under Hitler. “We have to close this wound. It is not related, whatsoever, to Greek debt or any policies connected to the memoranda,” he said, referring to the deeply unpopular bailout accords. “They are two very different issues. The left has always been sensitive to this issue.” The timing of the demand was coincidental, he said. “It is a very good coincidence for the Greek people but a very bad coincidence for those who want to connect it to the memoranda.”

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Thomas, you’re not an authority on every topic.

Piketty Says EU Politics Risks Driving Greece Out of Euro (Bloomberg)

Thomas Piketty, the French economist whose 2013 book on wealth inequality became an international bestseller, said he sees a risk of politicians in the European Union forcing Greece out of the euro area. “The attitude of a number of people in Brussels and Berlin looks like: push Greece out,” Piketty said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Paris. Greece, Europe’s most-indebted state, is negotiating with euro-area countries and the IMF on the terms of its €240 billion rescue. The standoff, which has left Greece dependent upon ECB loans, risks leading to a default within weeks and its potential exit from the euro area.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly said that she wants Greece to stay in the euro and along with French President Francois Hollande last week expressed concern that time is running short. “There’s no time to lose,” Merkel said at a news conference with Hollande after they met in Berlin March 31. Hollande said too much time has been lost already, adding that he would like an agreement and “the sooner, the better.” Piketty said that lack of institutional coherence has damaged the euro area. Germany and France aren’t just mistreating Greece, “they’re mistreating themselves,” Piketty said. “We need more political integration, more democratic institutions. You can’t just do it with summits of finance ministers.”

Separately, the 43-year-old Piketty said that the main cost of a British exit from the EU would be to Britain and not its continental partners. Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on the U.K.’s membership in the European Union if he’s re-elected next month. “Many people on the continent are a little bit tired with Britain’s attitude and will say ‘if they leave, it’s too bad for them,’” Piketty said. “The main cost will be incurred by Britain, not by the continent.”

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War reparations, odious debt, they’ve been studying the books.

‘Odious Debt’ Is Finally Here: Greece To Write Off ‘Illegal’ Debt (Zero Hedge)

It was back in June 2011 when we first hinted that the time of Odious Debt is rapidly approaching. As a reminder, this is what Odious Debt is: In international law, odious debt is a legal theory which holds that the national debt incurred by a regime for purposes that do not serve the best interests of the nation, should not be enforceable. Such debts are thus considered by this doctrine to be personal debts of the regime that incurred them and not debts of the state. In some respects, the concept is analogous to the invalidity of contracts signed under coercion.

Today, nearly four years later, Odious Debt is now a reality in Greece, where Zoi Konstantopoulou, the head of the Greek parliament and a SYRIZA member, released two videos which have promptly gone viral, designed to promote the investigative parliamentary committee to look into the circumstances surrounding the signing of the country’s two bailout agreements that led Greece to implement its austerity measures. That this concept emerges now is perhaps confusing: it was just a few days ago when the Greek FinMin promised to the IMF that Greece would honor all of its debt commitments. Should Greece decide that some (or all) of its debt was illegal and unenforceable, this will clearly not happen.

Then again, this is the same political party that made pre-election promises whose execution would require about €30 billion according to German calculation, so the relentless flipflopping is not very surprising. On the other hand, while perhaps Greece was hoping for a more favorable outcome from Tsipras’ meeting with Putin today, the resultant outcome which led to virtually nothing (that was revealed at least) may embolden the Greek nation to push on with this track which is certain to infuriate the Troika. According to Greek Reporter, Konstantopoulou has said that the newly established “Debt Truth Committee,” will investigate how much of the debt is “illegal” with a view to writing it off.

Proving that this is more than just a populist stunt, during a vote that took place early yesterday, out of the 300 Greek MPs, 156 voted in favor of establishing the public debt auditing committee. “The committee will examine how Greece entered into the bailout agreements with its international lenders, as well as any other matter related to the memoranda’ implementation,” SYRIZA Parliamentary Secretary Christos Mantas had explained earlier. “We are fulfilling our commitment and the social demand to explore the causes and responsibilities of an unprecedented crisis that devastated the vast majority of society,” Mantas added.

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And he’s damn right too.

Tsipras Asks Europe To End Russia Sanctions, Cites ‘New Cold War’ (Guardian)

The Greek prime minister has called on Europe to end its sanctions against Russia during a visit to Moscow, warning that they could lead to a “new cold war”. Alexis Tsipras also rebuked other European leaders who had criticised his two-day visit to the Russian capital, after meeting Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin on Wednesday. Brussels is nervous that the new Greek government is breaking European unity over Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and Tsipras’s words in the Kremlin would have been music to Putin’s ears. However, fears that the Russian president might seek to build closer economic ties with Greece by offering a loan – a possibility floated in a Russian newspaper report this week – or by lifting a ban on Greek food imports, proved unfounded.

Tsipras, speaking at a press conference alongside Putin after their talks, expressed his opposition to the sanctions imposed by the EU and US on Russia over its intervention in Ukraine. “The counter-sanctions imposed by Russia have inflicted pain on the Greek economy. But we know the retaliations were a response to sanctions [against Russia], the logic of which we do not entirely share,” he said. “We openly disapproved of the sanctions. It is not an efficient solution. We think it could bring about a new cold war between Russia and the west. “To get out of this profound crisis we need to leave behind this vicious cycle of sanctions,” he said. Tsipras also emphasised that Greece is a “sovereign country with an irrevocable right to conduct a multi-faceted foreign policy”. Putin said he welcomed the Greek position, while Tsipras said it was “springtime for Russian-Greek relations”.

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Love it.

Turkish Stream Will Make Greece Europe’s Energy Hub – Putin (RT)

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras said he is hopeful Greece will play a big role in the Turkish Stream pipeline project, making it a hub between Turkey and the European gas market, after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin Wednesday. “The new route will provide for European fuel needs, and would allow Greece to become one of the main power distribution centers on the continent, and could help attract significant investment into the Greek economy,” Putin said at a joint news conference with Tsipras. The new Turkish Stream pipeline will travel to the Turkish town of Ipsila close to the Greek border. The possibility is that 47 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas can be delivered to Central Europe, the Balkans, and possibly Italy via the new pipeline.

The Greek PM sees the project as a way to boost jobs and investment in the Greek economy, which has been in recession for the last six years. “Our pipelines will receive gas from the Turkish border, and will provide energy security for both Greece and the European market,” Tsipras said. Greece is interested in attracting investment, from Russia and others, to construct the pipeline on Greek territory. Russia is considering giving Greece funds based on future profits that Athens would earn from shipping gas to Europe, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing a Greek government official. The source added that Greece would pay back the prepayment after the pipeline started operating. Lower prices for Russian gas would also be linked to the project, the source said.

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And the follow-up. We can’t give you money. Oh, wait…

Russia Weighs Pre-Payment To Greece For Turkish Stream Pipeline (Reuters)

Russia is considering soon giving Greece funds based on future profits Athens would earn from shipping Russian gas to Europe as part of an extension of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project, a Greek government official said. Plans for the pipeline taking Russian gas from Turkey to Europe via Greece would be linked to lower Russian gas prices, the official added. Greece would pay back the Russian prepayment after the pipeline started operating, the official said.

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Thought provoking?!

Khazin: Global Recession To Exceed The Great Depression By 2.5 Times (FRU)

The trend of centralization of the global economy will remain in the past. It will be replaced by regionalization. In today’s economic instability, only systems with 0.5 to 1 billion people can be effective, says the economist, member of the Izborsky Club, Mikhail Khazin. According to him, the formation of such systems will begin after the onset of the crisis, and the first prototypes have already appeared. Khazin noted that the world economy has developed in the framework of expanding markets over the last 400 years. As a result, today it is in a very unstable state, since household spending is several times higher than income: by $3.3 trillion in the US and $2.5 trillion in the EU. The purchasing power of the average salary in the U.S. is at the level of 1958, all the rest – is induced demand due to the growth of private and public debt, said Khazin.

“The global economy harbors a potential recession, exceeding the scale of the Great Depression by 2.5 times,” said Khazin. Globalist tendencies are replaced by regionalization trends, smaller systems become more cost-effective. “A norm is an economic system with 0.5 to 1 billion people. This means that the world economy should fall into 5-6 relatively independent units as a result of the crisis. An additional factor is that the dollar ceased to be the investment asset for the world economy. The value added generated by the economy today, is insufficient to ensure the normal investment process,” explains Khazin. In this situation, the trend will be the creation of regional emission centers. This issue is raised in Russia: President Vladimir Putin at the regular meeting of the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union talked about the necessity of creating a monetary union.

The prototype of the regional economic zone is now the EEU. “We see that, despite all the talk that it is nonsense, in spite of all the opposition to the IMF, the trends are there. Moreover, not only in the EEU. China is creating its own periphery, the EU has long been engaged in it, Brazil is active in Latin America and South Africa. Processes are caused by objective circumstances and they will continue”, – said Khazin, adding that the EEU is only a “fetus”, from a geo-economic point of view, it should be joined by Turkey, Vietnam, United Korea and Japan. “They have nowhere else to go, because Vietnam, and Korea, and Japan, and Turkey are export countries. If Turkey’s main partner is the EU, for the rest – it’s the US. Once the demand in these regions falls, and they begin to close their borders, these countries will be left “hanging”.

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“.. the deaths follow a national pattern: suspects were mostly people of color, mentally ill, or both.”

US Cops Killed More People In One Month Than The UK Did In 100 Years (TFTP)

A new report by ThinkProgress.com unearthed disturbing figures when it came to the number of police-related deaths that occurred in America in the month of March alone. Just last month, in the 31 days of March, police in the United States killed more people than the UK did in the entire 20th century. In fact, it was twice as many; police in the UK only killed 52 people during that 100 year period. According to the report by ThinkProgess, in March alone, 111 people died during police encounters — 36 more than the previous month. As in the past, numerous incidents were spurred by violent threats from suspects, and two officers were shot in Ferguson during a peaceful protest. However, the deaths follow a national pattern: suspects were mostly people of color, mentally ill, or both.

This high number in March increased the average for police killings from every 8.5 hours, to nearly 1 police killing every 6.5 hours in the US. These numbers are staggering and show a serious problem of the violent tendencies within the US policing apparatus. Let’s look at our immediate neighbors to the north, Canada. The total number of citizens killed by law enforcement officers in the year 2014, was 14; that is 78 times fewer people than the US. From 2010 through 2014, there were four fatal police shootings in England, which has a population of about 52 million. By contrast, Albuquerque, N.M., with a population 1% the size of England’s, had 26 fatal police shootings in that same time period. China, whose population is 4 and 1/2 times the size of the United States, recorded 12 killings by law enforcement officers in 2014. On average, US police kill people at a rate 70 times higher than any of the other first world countries as they “protect and serve” the American citizens.

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Clueless ‘R’ Us.

New Zealand’s Top Economic Risk Is Australia: PM Key (CNBC)

While the drivers for New Zealand’s economy remain largely intact, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in neighboring Australia poses a threat to growth, Prime Minister John Key warned. “The big drivers of economic growth are net migration being strong, the Christchurch rebuild adding a lot of stimulus and huge investment in Auckland happening in infrastructure, and generally, putting dairy to one side, commodity prices being quite strong, it’s all going to help us,” Key told CNBC. “But if you say what can trip us up, unquestionably Australia is a big factor, because [it’s] a big part of our economy,” he added. Other risks stem from a continued loss of momentum in China’s economy as well as the domestic housing market, he said.

Australia – New Zealand’s largest trading partner – is a critical destination for Kiwi producers and manufacturers. Last year, New Zealand exported almost $9 billion of goods to Australia, creating 18 cents of every dollar of export revenue New Zealand received, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. Its top bilateral exports are oil, gold, wine and cheese. As such, the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar has become a headache for the country’s export and tourism sector.
“[Australia is] our largest source of tourists by quite some margin. It won’t stop them coming, the question is will they just spend a little less when they’re here.

If they bring $5,000 to spend over the weekend, they’d probably still bring $5,000 but if the exchange rate is a little worse, they will spend less in local currency,” he said. “So we do worry about that with Australia.” The Kiwi dollar, as it is known, has strengthened 6% against the Aussie over the past year. New Zealand’s economy has been the envy of the developed world with steady growth, falling unemployment and low inflation. The economy expanded 3.3% last year, the fastest since 2007, underpinned by its tourism sector, construction activity and net immigration – which has supported jobs growth and spending.

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No, this is not a comedy sketch. This is New Zealand’s own douchebag.

House Prices Represent Success In Life (NZ Herald)

It is hard to know what I am more excited about this week, our dollar or our houses. Records all over the place. But both signs of just how well we are doing. Barfoot & Thompson, who sell the bulk of Auckland’s homes, saw an average price of 776 grand. And in one of those lines with an appropriate amount of flourish, they said that “never had there been a March to compare” to the month just past. I, like so many, am obsessed with housing, but unlike so many I have loved every bit of it. With the possible exception that young people are being locked out. My wife told me of yet another person she knows, a young person, who just can’t afford to buy here. So she and her partner have worked out it’s cheaper back in the home town of Palmerston North, so they’re off. They won’t be alone.

Buying your first home where the average price is over $700,000 is a sobering experience and one made worse by the control freaks at the Reserve Bank who saw LVRs as some sort of pricing solution. What fools they are being shown to be as investor after investor steps into the young couples’ place at the auction and snaps up the fresh pickings. Mind you, having said that, a family friend the other day secured their first home for $335,000. No it’s not in Remuera or Parnell, and no, it doesn’t have a lot of indoor-outdoor flow leading to any pool. But then again nor did my first house. But they are proof you can still do it if you want to … just.

What the house prices represent is not dissimilar to what the dollar represents: success. Success is the outworking of demand. People want what you’ve got, they want the houses because they have decided to live here, or they feel confident enough to borrow more money because their jobs are going well and they want a bigger or better place, or they want a second home. They want our dollar because they see the fundamentals are sound. They see the growth and investment, they see the expansion. They look to the big country to the left and see all its problems. And they compare their lot with our lot, and they like the look of our lot, so they buy … they buy the currency, they buy the housing.

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Apr 072015
 
 April 7, 2015  Posted by at 8:44 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  5 Responses »


NPC Shad fishing on the Potomac 1920

Oil Slump Pushes S&P Toward First Profit Decline Since 2009 (Bloomberg)
How America Became an Oligarchy (Ellen Brown)
Fidelity’s Wolf Says Zero Rate Inescapable in Oil-Shocked Canada (Bloomberg)
Greece Offers 5 Key Points For Consensus With Creditors (RT)
Greece Puts Figure Of €278.7 Billion On Claim For German Reparations (Guardian)
Varoufakis Extends DC Charm Offensive After Talks With Lagarde (Guardian)
Frustrated EU Officials Want Greek Premier To Ditch Syriza Far Left (FT)
Alexis Tsipras’s Soft Fruit Ploy With Moscow Set To Antagonise EU (FT)
Why Hugh Hendry Went From China’s Biggest Bear To Its Biggest Bull (Zero Hedge)
How Rich and Poor Spend -and Earn- Their Money (WSJ)
Jobs Shocker May Show That US Economy Is In Real Trouble (CNBC)
The Global South Has Free Trade To Thank For Obesity And Diabetes (Guardian)
The School of Globalism (Jim Kunstler)
Russia Says Ukraine Should Seek Direct Debt-Restructuring Talks (Bloomberg)
Canadian Orchestra Drops Ukraine-Born Pianist Over Anti-Kiev Twitter Posts (RT)
Four-Bedroom House In Spain ‘Sold’ In €10 Raffle (Guardian)
New Zealand Dairy Giant Fonterra’s China Sales Fall 61% (NZ Herald)
Italians Rescue 1,500 Migrants In 24 Hours In Mediterranean (BBC)
Mapping America’s Exceptional Drought Conditions (Reuters)

There’s a limit to what QE can buy.

Oil Slump Pushes S&P Toward First Profit Decline Since 2009 (Bloomberg)

Tumbling oil prices and a stronger dollar are pushing down U.S. corporate profits for the first time in more than five years, hurting companies from Exxon Mobil to Wal-Mart. First-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 may have fallen about 5.8%, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg, in the first year-over-year decline since 2009’s third quarter. As earnings season gets its unofficial start this week with Alcoa, the biggest drag will come from a 63% profit decline at energy companies. Oil prices have fallen by about half from a year ago as companies pumped their way into a global glut, and the dollar’s climb of about 25% against a basket of currencies since last summer has chipped away at revenue for companies such as United Technologies.

“There are all these cross currents going on right now heading into earnings season,” said Todd Lowenstein at HighMark Capital. “You’re going to have at least on paper a technical earnings recession, meaning two consecutive quarters of negative growth, in the first and second quarters.” The effects ripple across industries. US Steel last month announced plans to shut an Illinois mill partly on falling demand from the energy companies. The dollar’s surge helped make steel imports cheaper, hurting producers such as Nucor. At Dow Chemical profit is poised to drop as plastics prices decline with oil and farmers buy fewer chemicals because their crops are selling for less. United Technologies has said it expects foreign exchange to cut $100 million from first-quarter profit on sales of its jet engines, elevators and air conditioners. “That still remains the biggest watch item for me,” CFO Akhil Johri told investors on March 12.

The slowdown is showing in some U.S. economic reports. The Labor Department reported Friday that employers added 126,000 jobs in March, the fewest since December 2013. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% at 9:38 a.m. Monday in New York, the first trading day after the report. Once energy companies are pulled out of the picture, S&P earnings look a bit better, with a projected rise of 1.9%. Alcoa is poised to report a higher profit in part because of rising aluminum demand from automakers and airlines – – two industries that are both benefiting from lower oil prices. Profits at auto manufacturers and their suppliers may jump 42%, the estimates show. “People know that energy prices are down, they know the dollar’s up,” said Jim Paulsen at Wells Capital. “What is less known here is what does the earnings performance look like outside the energy industry.”

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“Can we justify sending troops into other countries to spread a political system we cannot maintain at home?”

How America Became an Oligarchy (Ellen Brown)

According to a new study from Princeton University, American democracy no longer exists. Using data from over 1,800 policy initiatives from 1981 to 2002, researchers Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page concluded that rich, well-connected individuals on the political scene now steer the direction of the country, regardless of – or even against – the will of the majority of voters. America’s political system has transformed from a democracy into an oligarchy, where power is wielded by wealthy elites. “Making the world safe for democracy” was President Woodrow Wilson’s rationale for World War I, and it has been used to justify American military intervention ever since. Can we justify sending troops into other countries to spread a political system we cannot maintain at home?

The Magna Carta, considered the first Bill of Rights in the Western world, established the rights of nobles as against the king. But the doctrine that “all men are created equal” – that all people have “certain inalienable rights,” including “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” – is an American original. And those rights, supposedly insured by the Bill of Rights, have the right to vote at their core. We have the right to vote but the voters’ collective will no longer prevails. In Greece, the left-wing populist Syriza Party came out of nowhere to take the presidential election by storm; and in Spain, the populist Podemos Party appears poised to do the same. But for over a century, no third-party candidate has had any chance of winning a US presidential election. We have a two-party winner-take-all system, in which our choice is between two candidates, both of whom necessarily cater to big money. It takes big money just to put on the mass media campaigns required to win an election involving 240 million people of voting age.

In state and local elections, third party candidates have sometimes won. In a modest-sized city, candidates can actually influence the vote by going door to door, passing out flyers and bumper stickers, giving local presentations, and getting on local radio and TV. But in a national election, those efforts are easily trumped by the mass media. And local governments too are beholden to big money. When governments of any size need to borrow money, the megabanks in a position to supply it can generally dictate the terms. Even in Greece, where the populist Syriza Party managed to prevail in January, the anti-austerity platform of the new government is being throttled by the moneylenders who have the government in a chokehold. How did we lose our democracy? Were the Founding Fathers remiss in leaving something out of the Constitution? Or have we simply gotten too big to be governed by majority vote?

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Join the club.

Fidelity’s Wolf Says Zero Rate Inescapable in Oil-Shocked Canada (Bloomberg)

Canada’s central bank will eventually join global peers by cutting interest rates to zero to revive flagging output, said Fidelity Investments’ David Wolf. The world’s 11th-largest economy is hobbled by weak oil prices, indebted consumers and a currency that remains too strong to draw new business investment, Wolf, a former Bank of Canada adviser under Mark Carney, said Monday from Toronto. Stephen Poloz, Carney’s successor, already cut rates once in January to 0.75% as “insurance” against plummeting crude prices. Swaps trading shows investors are betting on just one more rate cut this year. That probably won’t be enough for Canada to avoid becoming mired in weak global demand like other major economies have, Wolf said.

“There’s a reason why rates are zero just about everywhere else in the developed world,” Wolf, who co-manages the C$7.4 billion Canadian Asset Allocation Fund, said. In Canada, zero rates are “what eventually will happen” as well, he said. The Bank of Canada makes its next interest-rate decision on April 15. Carney cut the benchmark overnight lending rate to 0.25% in April 2009, saying it was effectively zero, and laid out principles for potential quantitative easing. Canada never joined the U.S., Europe and Japan in using that unconventional policy of asset purchases.

Given the unprecedented experience global central banks have had with QE since the financial crisis, and with pushing policy rates to zero or even lower, Canada would need to revisit its 2009 guidelines if policy makers decided to pursue extraordinary stimulus, Wolf said. “No doubt the bank would take a fresh look at what options would be appropriate,” he said. Canada’s dollar is at “roughly fair value” today, Wolf said, and needs to weaken further before companies are encouraged to make new investments to expand locally. The currency traded at C$1.2463 against its U.S. counterpart at 2:02 p.m. in Toronto, and is down about 6.8% this year. “Just going from overvalued to fair valued historically hasn’t been enough to prompt those changes and I don’t think will be in this case either,” he said.

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First time I see a Greece bad bank being discussed.

Greece Offers 5 Key Points For Consensus With Creditors (RT)

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has unveiled his plan on reviving the Greek economy by both meeting the IMF requirements and circuiting the austerity measures. A preliminary agreement over proposal is expected on April 24. “Negotiations [with international lenders – Ed.] will be completed when we come to a decent agreement that will give a real prospect of stabilization and further substantial growth to the Greek economy,”Varoufakis said in an interview to Naftemporiki newspaper published Monday. The minister also noted that his Cabinet won’t agree to carry out measures leading to a recession. Greece requires a new agreement with Europe to make its €324-billion debt sustainable, as now it accounts for 178% of GDP, said Varoufakis pointing out five terms on which the plan is expected to work out.

First, it is a reasonable level of primary budget surplus about 1.5% of GDP instead of 4.5% agreed by the previous government which has led to a severe recession. Secondly, it is a reasonable debt restructuring that will link payments with the growth rate of nominal GDP. In addition, Greece needs an investment package from the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund, which should be placed mainly in the private sector in accordance with the new, non-bureaucratic procedures. Fourth, Greece should pass on effective restructuring of troubled loans by allocating them to a ‘Bad Bank’ unlike other resources of the Fund for financial stability. The fifth thing is significant reforms that will give support to creative people and businesses that produce tradable goods, with export prospects, he added.

Greece expects to reach a preliminary agreement with creditor countries on financing the economy and the external debt at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers on April 24, Varoufakis said. “Preliminary results will be achieved at the meeting of the Eurogroup on April 24,” he said adding that Greece expects to negotiate the unblocking of the last tranche of €7.2 billion from the EU loan program, and to negotiate restructuring of external debt by June.

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And 25 cents.

Greece Puts Figure Of €278.7 Billion On Claim For German Reparations (Gaurdian)

Greece’s deputy finance minister has said that Germany owes it nearly €279bn (£205bn) in reparations for the Nazi occupation of the country. Greek governments and private citizens have pushed for war damages from Germany for decades but the Greek government has never officially quantified its reparation claims. A parliamentary panel set up by Alexis Tsipras’s government started work last week, seeking to claim German debts, including war reparations, the repayment of a so-called occupation loan that Nazi Germany forced the Bank of Greece to make and the return of stolen archaeological treasures.

Speaking at a parliamentary committee on Monday, the deputy finance minister, Dimitris Mardas, said Berlin owed Athens €278.7bn, according to calculations by the country’s general accounting office. The occupation loan amounts to €10.3bn. The campaign for compensation has gained momentum in the past few years as the Greeks have suffered hardship under austerity measures imposed by the EU and IMF in exchange for bailouts totalling €240bn to save Greece from bankruptcy. Tsipras has frequently blamed Germany for the hardship stemming from the imposition of austerity. The Greek prime minister has angered Berlin by threatening to push for reparations in the middle of talks to unlock aid for Greece. Germany has repeatedly rejected the country’s claims and says it has honoured its obligations, including a 115m deutschmark payment to Greece in 1960.

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Consider me amused. Looks more like Shakespeare than Greek drama, though.

Varoufakis Extends DC Charm Offensive After Talks With Lagarde (Guardian)

Varoufakis’ surprise trip to Washington was reportedly instigated by Lagarde after ministers began suggesting the government would prefer to pay pensions and salaries than the IMF loan – in keeping with its philosophy to support those hardest hit by the crisis. Failure to meet bondholder obligations could spark a dangerous chain reaction for a country saddled with €320bn in debt – the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in Europe. As such, Lagarde was quick to say she welcomed the news that Athens would honour the loan repayment. Reports indicated the IMF chief had also pressed Varoufakis to agree to pension cuts and raise VAT. Both are anathema to a government that has refused outright to adopt any more “recessionary” measures.

Varoufakis, who has repeatedly said a euro exit would be catastrophic for Greece, promised to break the deadlock by improving the efficacy of negotiations with creditors. “There will be topics established in order to reach deals faster and to reach better quality deals,” he told reporters. “Our government is a reformist government, we are intent upon reforming Greece deeply. This is our promise to the Greek people so having an opportunity to discuss the reform programme here at the IMF with the managing director is an excellent step towards that direction.” Yet such reforms – including the sale of state assets – will not be easy. Internal dissent within Syriza, the governing party, has peaked in recent days with far-left militants, led by the energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, robustly rejecting any suggestion of rolling back on pre-election pledges.

Lafazanis, a Marxist who openly supports improving ties with Moscow, controls around a third of Syriza’s MPs and could easily bring down the government by voting against reforms when they are brought before the 300-member house. With the young premier clearly at odds over how to deal with the hardliners, there is growing speculation, not least among eurozone officials, that a new bailout accord to keep the country afloat can only be achieved if Tsipras agrees to dismember his own party and join up with centrist forces to form a new coalition. That would require him also cutting links with his rapidly anti-austerity rightwing junior partner Anel.

“Either Tsipras makes the policy U-turns being demanded of him, or Greece crashes,” said Dimitris Keridis, political science professor at Panteion University. “In that sense this government cannot survive in its current form.” Piling on the pressure, the Greek parliament late on Monday began debating the need to form a committee to investigate how Greece ended up being “stripped of its sovereignty” under its bailout agreement and placed under the surveillance of the EU and IMF. Analysts believe the move will almost certainly inflame relations with Athens’ creditors further.

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Brussels is always willing to help out a democracy.

Frustrated EU Officials Want Greek Premier To Ditch Syriza Far Left (FT)

Eurozone authorities frustration with Greece has grown so intense that a change in the current Athens government s make-up, however far-fetched, has become a frequent topic of conversation on the sidelines of bailout talks. Many officials up to and including some eurozone finance ministers have suggested privately that only a decision by Alexis Tsipras, Greek prime minister, to jettison the far left of his governing Syriza party can make a bailout agreement possible. More The idea would be for Mr Tsipras to forge a new coalition with Greece s traditional centre-left party, the beleaguered Pasok, and To Potami (The River), a new centre-left party that fought its first general election in January. Tsipras has to decide whether he wants to be prime minister or the leader of Syriza, said one European official.

A senior official in a eurozone finance ministry added: ‘This government cannot survive’. Members of Syriza’s moderate wing admit there is a problem with the Left Platform, the official internal opposition that represents about a third of the party and controls enough MPs to bring down the government if it were to rebel in a parliamentary vote. We used to be more debating society than political party … so it is hard to get a system of party discipline up and running, said one Syriza official. But you have to remember we’ve been in power less than 100 days. Under the leadership of Panayotis Lafazanis, almost as popular a figure in the party as the prime minister, Left Platform members say they will veto structural reforms that are being pushed hard by Greece’s creditors in the current round of bailout talks.

Yet even though Mr Tsipras had adopted a more moderate stance in his dealings with Brussels and Berlin, it is too soon to expect him to risk an open clash with his left wing, according to observers in Athens. To win the support of Pasok and To Potami, Mr Tsipras would also have to dump his right-of-centre coalition partner, the nationalist Independent Greeks. It would be desirable to move to a more coherent pro-European centre-left coalition compared with this unseemly union of the radical left with the populist right, said George Pagoulatos, a professor of political economy at Athens business university. But it is premature for the moment. Eurozone officials insist they are not trying to force a change in the government sensitive to accusations the EU was complicit in ending the tenure of George Papandreou, Greece’s prime minister at the start of the eurozone crisis, and Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian premier until late 2011.

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Some pretty vicious anti-Putin stuff af FT today. Münchau wrote one I won’t even bother to post here. I’m surprised Tsipras didn’t go see Putin way before.

Alexis Tsipras’s Soft Fruit Ploy With Moscow Set To Antagonise EU (FT)

When Alexis Tsipras visits Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin on Wednesday there is a chance the Greek premier’s eastern manoeuvre will immediately bear fruit: kiwis, peaches and strawberries to be precise. Athens is hopeful that Moscow will lift a retaliatory ban on Greek soft fruits to demonstrate the abiding strength of Russo-Greek relations, just as both leaders feel a diplomatic chill with Europe over the Ukraine crisis and Athens’ bailout saga respectively. But what worries European diplomats is that the Putin-Tsipras gladhanding amounts to something more significant than fruit trade. The big fear, in the words of one suspicious senior official, is a “Trojan horse” plot, where Russia extends billions in rescue loans in exchange for a Greek veto on sanctions — a move that would kill western unity over Ukraine.

No such shock is expected this week. But as Athens nears the brink of insolvency there is growing alarm that Mr Tsipras’s radical left government might turn to Moscow in desperation. It would set off the biggest panic over Greece’s strategic alignment since the 1947 US Marshall Plan, initiated to save the country from communist fighters that Mr Tsipras’ Syriza party lionise to this day. Others argue that Mr Tsipras’ Russia card is but a ploy in bailout talks with Germany and the eurozone. In spite of historic cultural ties and Syriza’s Soviet romanticism, analysts think Greece is too tied to the west – through EU and Nato membership – and too deep in debt for sanctions-damaged Russia to buy it off as a reliable ally.

“The Greeks are using Russia as a way to piss off Berlin, to frighten them. Tsipras wants to show he has other options,” said Theocharis Grigoriadis, a Greece-Russia relations expert at the Free University of Berlin. “But he has no intention of making Greece a Russian satellite. The Russians know that. The Germans know that. It is pure theatre, a Greek game, and I’m afraid it looks like a poodle trying to scare a lion.” From his first day in office Mr Tsipras’ administration has stoked Russian paranoia in western capitals. During his debut at an EU foreign ministers meeting, Greece’s Nikos Kotzias angrily waved a rolled-up Russian sanctions proposal in his hand as he condemned the measures. “We argue and squabble but it is like a family, we’re supposed to share the same world view,” said one official present. “That meeting was something else — it felt like the UN Security Council.”

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Central Bank Omnipotence, Hugh?

Why Hugh Hendry Went From China’s Biggest Bear To Its Biggest Bull (Zero Hedge)

Back in the day, Chinese stocks had no greater nemesis than Hugh Hendry, whose “China Short” fund soared by 52% in 2011. The (anti) investment thesis was simple: the Chinese economy is bogged down by unprecedented overcapacity. Well, it still is, but Hugh Hendry sensed which way the wind was blowing for the last central bank left to unleash QE, and some time ago, ahead of a gargantuan, liquidity and margin-debt driven Shanghai Composite rally, the Scotsman warned, so far presciently that “To Bet Against China Is To Bet Against Central Bank Omnipotence.”

Considering that Chinese equities are the best performing market in USD terms (second only, oddly enough, to Russia) in 2015, one can see why after a disappointing 2012 and 2013, and modest 2014, Hendry has hit 2015 out of the park with a bang, generating a 10.6% return in the first two months of the year. So is Hendry still bullish on China’s stock market prospects? Why yes, and then some. But is he is contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian? Does he see something in China that nobody else does? Or is he simply right… or wrong, as the case may be? We will let readers decide. Here is his full “managers’ commentary” from his most recent letter to investors dedicated entirely to China.

So much is written about China, and of late very little has been bullish. The notion of impending renminbi devaluation has taken root as traders worry that the dollar rally has pulled its reluctant Chinese counterpart higher, especially against the euro and the yen. Indeed, it seems that shorting the renminbi has become the new equivalent to the JGB short in macro circles. But having shared these doomsday prophecies back in 2010, when the consensus was less negative, I have recently become less concerned about China. Here’s why. First China has recalibrated its growth model. Between 2001 and 2011, China had a very comparable decade to the US economy during the 1920s. Both boomed on surging productivity, high returns on capital, massive gross fixed capital formation and a fervent desire by the rest of the world to participate.

We know that both economies should have boomed; indeed they did. However I would contend that they should have boomed even more. That they didn’t was because of hawkish macro policy. In the 1920s, the Fed refused to allow the high powered money entering its economy via the gold standard to boost credit further. The Chinese discriminated against their household sector: the currency was never allowed to appreciate as much as the boom justified; wages never fully captured the dramatic gains in productivity; and real interest rates were consistently negative. Together, these measures robbed the household of anything between 5% and 7% of GDP per annum, statistically depressing income’s share of GDP and hence boosting involuntary saving. No one really complained, everyone felt better off, but they could have done even better.

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What money?

How Rich and Poor Spend -and Earn- Their Money (WSJ)

For many Americans, the rise in food and housing prices is a tough squeeze. That’s because—even in an era with low overall inflation—low-income Americans spend a disproportionate share of their money on food and housing. New data from the Labor Department show the extent of the discrepancy. The bottom 10% of Americans, by income, devote 42% of their spending to housing and an additional 17% to food–nearly 60% of their total spending, according to the Consumer Expenditures Survey. By contrast, the wealthiest 10% of Americans dedicate only 31% of their spending to housing and 11% to food–closer to 40% of total spending. This underscores one reason that inflation feels different household to household: People spend their money in such different ways. A parent with children in college or daycare might scoff at the notion that inflation has been low for the last five years.

Conversely, someone with no car payment and no mortgage but who does a lot of driving may be feeling flush from the plunge in gas prices. This year, the expenditure survey added new data breaking down Americans into tenths. Approximately 12.5 million consumer units are in each tenth. In the bottom three brackets are individuals earning around $20,000 a year or less, and spending more than they bring in. The survey breaks out their sources of income. The poorest 10% receive more public assistance than any other group. The second 10% receive more than half their income from Social Security and retirement programs. The third and fourth 10% also receive large shares of their income from retirement programs, suggesting that retirees make up a large share of the lower-middle part of the income distribution.

The top half of Americans receive at least three-quarters of their income from wages and salaries. (The complete definition of the income sources is available here. The chart above combines “regular contributions for support” with “public assistance, supplemental security income and food stamps.”) The sixth through ninth decile in this survey earn between $51,000 and $112,000 a year. The top 10% earn an average of $220,000. Even among this group, the vast majority of annual income comes from wages, although they also receive 10% of their income from other sources, primarily self-employment. As consumers become wealthier, their spending patterns change, sometimes dramatically.

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“Investors are going to freak out if earnings turn negative..”

Jobs Shocker May Show That US Economy Is In Real Trouble (CNBC)

In the wake of March’s tepid jobs creation, it may be time to take a harder look at this soft patch. Even ahead of Friday’s employment report, concerns were mounting about a growing pile of weak data. JPMorgan’s economic research team cut their first quarter GDP growth forecast to a mere 0.6% on Thursday, citing poor consumer spending data. Recent manufacturing data have also looked especially bad, with the ISM manufacturing index’s March reading showing the slowest growth since May 2013. Separately, housing market indicators have been mixed, perhaps due to the harsh winter weather. Amid all of the concerns, many economists have held out hope because of the string of strong employment reports, which have indicated that growth remains strong where it matters most.

Now, that story changed after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that a mere 126,000 jobs were created in March, compared to broad expectations of another 200,00-plus report. “While the jobs report was disappointing, in some ways it confirms what we already know,” commented Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy with Brown Brothers Harriman. “The U.S. economy slowed markedly in Q1 2015.” In the 45 minutes of futures trading that followed the report (which was released on a day when the stock market was closed for the Good Friday holiday) S&P 500 futures fell by 1%, while bond futures marched higher. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar fell sharply across the board.

While the jobs number may have somewhat shifted expectations about when the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates, these moves are all consonant with shifting perceptions of the American economy—and not with shifting expectations about the Fed. After all, with all else being equal, a more dovish Fed would be good rather than bad for stocks. For Brian Stutland of Equity Armor Investments, the jobs disappointment couldn’t come at a worse time. Earnings season is around the corner, and analysts are already predicting an earnings decline. “You have to worry about whether valuations are correct if earnings are flat to down,” Stutland said. “Investors are going to freak out if earnings turn negative, and you could see a snowball effect.”

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And Warren Buffett.

The Global South Has Free Trade To Thank For Obesity And Diabetes (Guardian)

The North America Free Trade Agreement, signed in 1993, triggered an immediate surge of direct investment from the US into Mexico’s food processing industry. Between 1999 and 2004, three-quarters of the country’s foreign investment went into the production of processed foods. At the same time, sales of processed foods went up by 5-10% per year. Mexico is now one of the ten biggest producers of processed food in the world, with total sales reaching $124bn in 2012. The corporations running this business – such as PepsiCo, Nestlé, Unilever and Danone – made $28bn in profits from these sales, $9bn more than they made in Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy. Mexico is now one of the ten biggest producers of processed food in the world, with total sales reaching $124bn in 2012.

The corporations running this business – such as PepsiCo, Nestlé, Unilever and Danone – made $28bn in profits from these sales, $9bn more than they made in Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy. Mexico offers the global food industry not only low operation costs, but a network of trade agreements that provide access to big markets such as the European Union and the US. At the same time, these corporations are investing heavily in taking over local distribution. The number of supermarkets, discount chains and convenience stores exploded: in 1997, their numbers went from 700 to 3,850; there were 5,730 such stores in 2004. Today, Oxxo, a convenience store chain owned by a unit of Coca-Cola Mexico, is opening an average of three stores a day, and aims to inaugurate its 14,000th store in Mexico this year.

One of the main effects of all this has been a radical change in people’s diets and a disproportionate increase in malnutrition, obesity and diabetes. Mexico’s National Institute for Public Health reports that, between 1988 and 2012, the proportion of overweight women between the ages of 20 and 49 increased from 25% to 35.5%; the number of obese women in that age group increased from 9.5% to 37.5%. A staggering 29% of Mexican children between the ages of five and 11 were found to be overweight, as were 35% of the youngsters between 11 and 19, while one in 10 school age children suffers from anaemia.

The level of diabetes is equally troubling. The Mexican Diabetes Federation says there are up to 10 million people who suffer from diabetes in Mexico; around two million of them are unaware that they have the disease. This means that more than 7% of the Mexican population has diabetes. The incidence rises to 21% for people between the ages of 65 and 74. In 2012, Mexico ranked sixth in the world for diabetes deaths and specialists predict that there will be 11.9 million Mexicans with diabetes by 2025. Obesity and diabetes function together, interacting so strongly that a new term has emerged: “diabesity”. Who can we thank for this? The transnational food industry supported by governments that share their interests.

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Larry Summers redux.

The School of Globalism (Jim Kunstler)

One might say the main effect of the 50-year-long Friedman globalism orgy was the schooling of other nations in American-style financial fraud. Surely China has now surpassed the USA, considering the structural perversities of their banking and government relations. They really don’t have to account to anybody, including themselves, and the numbers they publish must be even more fantastical than the junk statistics produced by the US BLS. Europe has been a star pupil and only a few months ago announced a Quantitative Easing (fake capital creation) program as ambitious as America’s have been. Japan, of course, is just marking time until it quietly slips away and goes medieval.

Global disintegration has advanced furthest, not surprisingly, in the fragile band of regions most strung out on the primary commodity: oil. The Middle East/North Africa/Central Asia war zone is steadily combusting, and there is no sign of resolution across the whole of it, only the promise that conflict will get worse. Saudi Arabia was the cornerstone of that district, and the senile Saudi leadership finds itself in peril as its military pretends to support splintering Yemen. The other Arabian princes of other non-Saud clans must be watching the spectacle with wonder and nausea. When Arabia blows up, that will truly be the beginning of the end. The foregoing leads to that other original question: what is that “capital” we’re counting on? I’d propose that it doesn’t exist. It is a figment engraved on the hard drives of the world, a ghost that haunts the people still in charge of that disintegrating global economy. There is still wealth in the world, but a lot less than people such as Larry Summers say there is.

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Ukraine needs regime change. Who has experience with that?

Russia Says Ukraine Should Seek Direct Debt-Restructuring Talks (Bloomberg)

Russia said only direct talks with Ukrainian authorities may change its refusal to join debt restructuring negotiations. No official contacts have taken place with Ukraine’s Finance Ministry about renegotiating $3 billion of Eurobond debt, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergey Storchak said in an April 3 interview in Moscow. Russia expects to be paid on time and in full when the debt matures in December, he said. “We are not going to join any offer that they are getting ready,” Storchak said. “Only one thing can influence our position — some direct contact with the debtor.” Ukraine wants to restructure all external sovereign debt incurred before March 2014 in negotiations to save $15.3 billion in public sector financing under its bailout agreement with the IMF, the Finance Ministry in Kiev said on Saturday.

Russia, the second-largest bondholder after Franklin Templeton, refuses to join restructuring talks, saying the debt it holds was official aid to Ukraine’s struggling economy under former President Viktor Yanukovych. Russia purchased $3 billion of bonds in December 2013 after Yanukovych rejected an association agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with the government in Moscow. He was ousted in February last year and fled Ukraine after violent clashes between police and protesters who supported the trade pact with the EU. Ukraine’s Finance Ministry “publicly invited all bondholders” through the clearing system to take part in debt negotiations, including those holding bonds issued in December 2013, the ministry said in e-mailed comments on April 6. “To date, the Ministry has not received any response through the designated website to its invitation from the holders of such bonds.”

Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said in March that all loans and bonds should be treated the same. The debt Russia holds should be considered “official” state aid, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on March 27. The only concession it was willing to make was not to enforce a clause providing for early repayment once Ukraine’s public debt surpassed 60% of gross domestic product, he said. Holders of Ukraine’s bonds have suffered losses of more than 40% since the beginning of 2014, the worst performance among countries in the Bloomberg USD Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Index. The bonds handed investors a 25.7% loss this year, while the index gave a return of 2.64%.

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Strange story.

Canadian Orchestra Drops Ukraine-Born Pianist Over Anti-Kiev Twitter Posts (RT)

A Ukrainian-born pianist was barred from playing at Canada’s Toronto Symphony Orchestra (TSO) for expressing views on the situation in Ukraine via Twitter, according to the soloist herself. The move led to a social media storm tagged #LetValentinaPlay. The orchestra has officially announced its decision to drop pianist Valentina Lisitsa from its Rachmaninoff Concerto #2 program earlier this week. TSO President and CEO Jeff Melanson cited “ongoing accusations of deeply offensive language by Ukrainian media outlets,” adding that Lisitsa’s “provocative comments” had allegedly “overshadowed past performances.” In the statement, Melanson seems to be referring to Lisitsa’s Twitter posts, in which she expresses her views on the situation in Ukraine.

Lisitsa turned to Facebook on Monday with a plea, asking her fans for support to “tell Toronto Symphony that music can’t be silenced.” “Someone in the orchestra top management, likely after the pressure from a small but aggressive lobby claiming to represent Ukrainian community, has made a decision that I should not be allowed to play,” she wrote, referring to her TSO performances on Wednesday and Thursday. “I don’t even know who my accusers are, I am kept in the dark about it.” After expressing her views, Lisitsa claimed to have received numerous death threats. The last straw was the decision to drop her performance: “My haters didn’t stop there. Trying, in their own words, to teach me a lesson, they have now attempted to silence me as a musician.”

Lisitsa revealed that TSO offered to cover her entire fee for the canceled program, if she chose to stay silent about the reason behind the decision. “They even threatened me against saying anything about the cause of the cancellation … If they do it once, they will do it again and again, until the musicians, artists are intimidated into voluntary censorship,” she wrote. The reaction on Twitter was massive, with the hashtag #LetValentinaPlay surging in popularity and thousands of supporters speaking out. International concert violinist and recording artist Hannah Woolmer tweeted: “To me, this IS a VITAL campaign pls can all my followers retweet if they agree that @TorontoSymphony should #letvalentinaplay.”

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Who’s next to try this??

Four-Bedroom House In Spain ‘Sold’ In €10 Raffle (Guardian)

A stone’s throw from a former palace and vestiges of a medieval wall, this four-bedroom house in rural Valencia boasts a prime location, 20 miles from the beach and 50 miles from the nearest ski hill. And it is a steal – given that its newest owner paid just €10 (£7.35) for it in a raffle. When the previous owners, the Bolumar family, first wanted to sell the house they had inherited two years ago in Segorbe, a town of 9,300, they tried to do it the traditional way, listing it for €90,000. But the struggling Spanish housing market yielded few potential buyers. “It was really complicated,” said Pepe Bolumar, 35. The family began considering other ways to sell.

Most ideas were dismissed quickly, save one. “Raffling it off seemed interesting – people would have the chance to acquire a home for a low cost and we would still end up covering the cost,” Bolumar said. From there began a year-long project, with the family wrestling their way through seemingly endless amounts of red tape to obtain authorisation from the country’s tax authorities to be the first in Spain to raffle off a house. The €10 tickets, sold from a kiosk in Valencia as well as online, offered the chance to win the 141 sq metre home, no strings attached. As news of the raffle spread through Facebook and Twitter, 32,000 tickets were sold, the majority of them in Spain but also as far away as Australia and Canada. Those in Florida, he said, seemed to be particularly taken with the idea.

“Lots of people from Florida called us, also from England,” said Bolumar. Some of the calls that came in were heartbreaking, he said, from families who had been evicted from their homes or who had fallen on tough times and were desperately hoping to win the house. As the family prepared to gather together with a notary to watch the numbered balls drop from a borrowed lottery machine, Bolumar was confident that the family had recouped the original sale price of the house, estimating it would walk away with further €10,000. “It’s less than what it appears. We didn’t receive €320,000, because we have to cover our costs of the past year,” he said, pointing to publicity as well as the cost of servers and maintenance for the website.

The family will also cover any taxes incurred by the winner from the transfer of the house. “The winner doesn’t have to pay a thing more.” Throughout the process, Bolumar said the family regularly received phone calls from others interesting in raffling off their own houses. It now plans on keeping its website open to offer guidance to others looking to do the same. “It was a huge amount of effort. It took up a whole year and became a second job for me,” said Bolumar, who manages a small business in Valencia. But it proved to be an effective way to beat the tumbling Spanish property market, he said. “If you’re trying to sell your home and its not working, this might be the solution for you.”

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“So when might Chinese demand return to normal?” You’re looking at it.

New Zealand Dairy Giant Fonterra’s China Sales Fall 61% (NZ Herald)

Fonterra’s half-year result – which revealed a 16% profit drop and a cut to the forecast dividend – was a disappointment for farmers and investors in the co-operative’s listed shareholders’ fund. But an aspect of the interim financials that didn’t get much attention last week was the precipitous decline in Chinese revenue the company experienced in the six months to January 31. Sales in Fonterra’s largest market slumped to $1.2 billion from $3.1 billion in the same period a year earlier. That’s a whopping 61% decline, well ahead of the next biggest geographical revenue fall of 29% in Europe. It underlines the extreme volatility Fonterra has been dealing with in China and the ongoing challenges it faces there.

Aggressive Chinese buying during the latter part of 2013, into early 2014, helped to inflate global dairy prices and resulted in a massive build-up of inventory in China. To put it in perspective, the $3.1 billion Chinese revenue Fonterra posted for the six months to the end of January 2014 was a 138% increase on the $1.3 billion it reported for the half-year up to January 2013. But the spike in demand wasn’t to last. High inventory levels had put the brakes on Chinese buying by the middle of last year. That drop in demand has been a factor in the dairy price downturn New Zealand farmers are now facing.

Speaking to the Business Herald last week, Fonterra chief financial officer Lukas Paravicini attributed the half-year slump in Chinese revenue to a combination of lower dairy prices, which were a negative for the co-op’s ingredients business, and weak demand. It appears the latter factor was the biggest contributor to the decline. Fonterra’s half-year revenue across the rest of Asia fell only 5%, to $2.6 billion, despite falling dairy prices. So when might Chinese demand return to normal? Paravicini expressed some optimism, saying Fonterra’s core ingredients business in China had experienced “a bit” of a recovery. “We’re still in a supply-rich and demand-weak environment and that includes China,” he said.

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Europe’s shame continues. Anybody seen a task force announced? Neither have I.

Italians Rescue 1,500 Migrants In 24 Hours In Mediterranean (BBC)

Some 1,500 migrants have been rescued from boats trying to cross to Italy in the space of 24 hours, the Italian coastguard has said. The navy and coastguard despatched vessels to rescue the migrants from five different boats. The UNHCR says almost 3,500 people died and more than 200,000 were rescued trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe last year. The chaotic political situation in Libya has added to the crisis. The coastguard despatched four vessels and the navy another after receiving satellite telephone distress calls from three migrant boats. Two more boats were found to be in trouble when the rescuers arrived. The migrants were transferred to Lampedusa island and the ports of Augusta and Porto Empedocle in Sicily. Last year, Italy dealt with 170,000 migrants who entered the EU by sea. Officials say the numbers for the first two months of this year are up 43% on January and February in 2014.

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“..more than half of the U.S. is affected by water shortages..”

Mapping America’s Exceptional Drought Conditions (Reuters)

As government websites go, the U.S. Drought Portal sounds full of promise. Fun even. But alas, recent news from the site’s weekly reports on things like U.S. drought conditions and wildfire risks, has been anything but fun.

As this Reuters graphic shows, more than half of the U.S. is affected by water shortages, and the problem is growing worse. The number of people affected by extreme or exceptional drought conditions is approaching 40 million, many of those in California, where Gov. Jerry Brown last week ordered a 25% cut in domestic water use for the first time in state history.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, California’s 2014 Water Year was the third driest in 119 years and the warmest on record, so perpetual wildfire season looks like the new normal. And there’s little relief on the horizon: The National Weather Service’s seasonal drought outlook predicts developing, persisting or intensifying drought conditions for most of the American West through at least the end of June.

DroughtConditions040615-620

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