May 252015
 
 May 25, 2015  Posted by at 10:11 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  Comments Off on Debt Rattle May 25 2015


Harris&Ewing District National Bank, Washington, DC 1931

Memorial Day: Our Soldiers Died For The Profits Of The Bankers (Smedley Butler)
Europe’s Biggest Debt Collector: Central Banks’ Stimulus Has Failed (Bloomberg)
“It’s A Coup D’Etat”, “Central Banks Are Out Of Control” – David Stockman (ZH)
Unemployment Is a Big Threat to Eurozone Economy, Central Bankers Warn (WSJ)
HSBC Fears World Recession With No Lifeboats Left (AEP)
Did China Just Launch World’s Biggest Spending Plan? (Gordon Chang)
G7 Finance Ministers To Address Faltering Global Growth (Reuters)
Schaeuble Expects Conflict at Dresden G-7 Over Austerity Policy (Bloomberg)
Greece Hasn’t Got The Money To Make June IMF Repayment (Reuters)
Greece’s Misery Shows We Need Chapter 11 Bankruptcy For Countries (Guardian)
Greeks Back Government’s Red Lines, But Want To Keep Euro (AFP)
The Truth About Riga (Yanis Varoufakis)
The Bloodied Idealogues vs. The Bloodthirsty Technocrats (StealthFlation)
Spain’s Ruling Party Battered In Local And Regional Elections (EUObserver)
Catalan Independence Bid Rocked by Podemos Victory in Barcelona (Bloomberg)
Auckland Nears $1 Million Average House Price (Guardian)
Monsanto’s GMO Cotton Problems Drive Indian Farmers To Suicide (RT)
‘Incredibly Diverse’, Endangered Plankton Provide Half The World’s Oxygen (SR)

Smedley Butler knew it way back in 1933.

Memorial Day: Our Soldiers Died For The Profits Of The Bankers (Smedley Butler)

Memorial Day commemorates soldiers killed in war. We are told that the war dead died for us and our freedom. US Marine General Smedley Butler challenged this view. He said that our soldiers died for the profits of the bankers, Wall Street, Standard Oil, and the United Fruit Company. Here is an excerpt from a speech that he gave in 1933:

“War is just a racket. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of people. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the masses. I believe in adequate defense at the coastline and nothing else. If a nation comes over here to fight, then we’ll fight. The trouble with America is that when the dollar only earns 6% over here, then it gets restless and goes overseas to get 100%. Then the flag follows the dollar and the soldiers follow the flag. I wouldn’t go to war again as I have done to protect some lousy investment of the bankers. There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.

There isn’t a trick in the racketeering bag that the military gang is blind to. It has its “finger men” to point out enemies, its “muscle men” to destroy enemies, its “brain men” to plan war preparations, and a “Big Boss” Super-Nationalistic-Capitalism. It may seem odd for me, a military man to adopt such a comparison. Truthfulness compels me to. I spent thirty-three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country’s most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle- man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism.”

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“A rate that is too low, or a rate that many of us have never experienced, is so extraordinary that it doesn’t create any stability or faith in the future at all..”

Europe’s Biggest Debt Collector: Central Banks’ Stimulus Has Failed (Bloomberg)

The head of Europe’s biggest debt collector says the historic wave of stimulus spilling out of central banks has failed to fuel investment growth. Lars Wollung, the chief executive officer of Intrum Justitia AB, warned that record-low interest rates “don’t seem to lead to investments that create jobs,” in an interview in Stockholm. “A rate that is too low, or a rate that many of us have never experienced, is so extraordinary that it doesn’t create any stability or faith in the future at all,” he said. “Rather the opposite: one feels insecure and waits with expansion plans and to hire more people.” The comments mark a blow to central banks who have resorted to everything from negative rates to bond purchases to aid growth.

A study by Intrum Justitia shows 73% of the almost 9,000 European firms surveyed between February and April said low interest rates brought about “no change in investments.” Some even reported a decline. In Sweden, where the central bank’s main rate is minus 0.25%, 82% of companies said it made no difference to their investments. What companies need if they’re “to believe in the future” is certainty that their bills will be paid, Wollung said. That means clearer payments legislation and more incentives for borrowers to repay their debts on time, he said. Intrum Justitia has devoted resources to lobbying officials in Brussels in an effort to bring across its point, Wollung said.

In Germany and Scandinavia, where companies and borrowers can refer to clear and robust legal systems, unemployment is low and economic growth strong, he said. A German firm waits 17 days on average to get paid by a client company. In Italy, it takes 80 days, Intrum figures show. The survey indicates that about 8 million European companies would hire more people if they got their payments faster. “Late payments are a significant problem for companies,” Wollung said. Having a stable cash flow is “probably more important than if interest rates are at 1% or 0.5%,” he said.

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No holds barred.

“It’s A Coup D’Etat”, “Central Banks Are Out Of Control” – David Stockman (ZH)

We’re all about to be taken to the woodshed, warns David Stockman in this excellent interview. The huge wealth disparity is “not because of some flaw in capitalism, or Reagan tax cuts, or even the greed of Wall Street; the problem is central banks that are out of control.” Simply put, they have “syphoned financial resources into pure gambling” and the people that own the stocks and bonds get the huge financial windfall. “The 10% at the top own 85% of the financial assets,” and thus, thanks to the unleashing of almost limitless money-printing, which has created a massive worldwide financial inflation, “the central banks have created and exaggerated the wealth gap.” Stockman concludes, rather ominously,

“it’s a coup d’etat, the central banks have taken over – unconstitutional domination of the entire economy.” “Everywhere, misleading distorted signals are being given to both public and private sector players about financial values… the prices have been falsified by The Fed. We can’t print our way to prosperity… The Fed is now petrified that Wall Street will have a hissy-fit when they tighten.”

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Well, they caused it.

Unemployment Is a Big Threat to Eurozone Economy, Central Bankers Warn (WSJ)

High and divergent unemployment rates in Europe pose a serious threat to the region’s long-term economic health, central bankers and economists warned during a weekend conference held by the European Central Bank. But they stopped short of offering specific advice on the best steps to take. The ECB’s seminar, the second of what it plans as an annual conference in the resort town of Sintra on Portugal’s western coast, brought together central bankers and economists from Europe, the U.S. and Asia to examine the root causes of high unemployment and persistently weak inflation in Europe. The attendees dwelled extensively on an economic concept known as “hysteresis,” a reduction in economic output brought on by weak growth that gives rise to long-term unemployment.

The remedies to such problems, however, lie partly with fiscal-policy officials and not central bankers, who don’t set labor and other economic policies. The conference largely lacked representatives from finance ministries and businesses. But ECB President Mario Draghi signaled that the stakes were too high for central bankers to keep silent, particularly in the 19-member eurozone, where diverse countries ranging from powerful Germany to recession-ravaged Greece set their own economic and fiscal policies but share a single currency and monetary policy. “In a monetary union you can’t afford having large and increasing structural divergences between countries,” Mr. Draghi said on Saturday. “They tend to become explosive; therefore they are going to threaten the existence of the monetary union.”

The eurozone is the world’s second-biggest economy after the U.S. But in recent years it has emerged as one of the global economy’s main trouble spots, having struggled through a pair of recessions since 2009 that pushed the bloc’s unemployment rate into double digits. The region has started to recover, but the damage has resulted in huge gaps in unemployment across the eurozone. “Unemployment in Europe, notably youth unemployment, is not only unbearably high. It is also unbearably different across nations belonging to an economic and monetary union,” Tito Boeri, professor at Bocconi University, and Juan Jimeno of the Bank of Spain wrote in a conference paper.

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“JP Morgan estimates that the US economy contracted at a rate of 1.1pc in the first quarter..” “China accounted for 85pc of all global growth in 2012, 54pc in 2013, and 30pc in 2014. This is likely to fall to 24pc this year.”

HSBC Fears World Recession With No Lifeboats Left (AEP)

The world economy is disturbingly close to stall speed. The United Nations has cut its global growth forecast for this year to 2.8pc, the latest of the multinational bodies to retreat. We are not yet in the danger zone but this pace is only slightly above the 2.5pc rate that used to be regarded as a recession for the international system as a whole. It leaves a thin safety buffer against any economic shock – most potently if China abandons its crawling dollar peg and resorts to ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ policies, transmitting a further deflationary shock across the global economy. The longer this soggy patch drags on, the greater the risk that the six-year old global recovery will sputter out. While expansions do not die of old age, they do become more vulnerable to all kinds of pathologies.

A sweep of historic data by Warwick University found compelling evidence that economies are more likely to stall as they age, what is known as “positive duration dependence”. The business cycle becomes stretched. Inventories build up and companies defer spending, tipping over at a certain point into a self-feeding downturn. Stephen King from HSCB warns that the global authorities have alarmingly few tools to combat the next crunch, given that interest rates are already zero across most of the developed world, debts levels are at or near record highs, and there is little scope for fiscal stimulus. “The world economy is sailing across the ocean without any lifeboats to use in case of emergency,” he said.

In a grim report – “The World Economy’s Titanic Problem” – he says the US Federal Reserve has had to cut rates by over 500 basis points to right the ship in each of the recessions since the early 1970s. “That kind of traditional stimulus is now completely ruled out. Meanwhile, budget deficits are still uncomfortably large,” he said. The authorities are normally able to replenish their ammunition as recovery gathers steam. This time they are faced with a chronic low-growth malaise – partly due to a global ‘savings glut’, and increasingly to a slow ageing crisis across most of the Northern hemisphere. The Fed keeps having to defer its first rate rise as expectations fall short.

Each of the past four US recoveries has been weaker than the last one. The average growth rate has fallen from 4.5pc in the early 1980s to nearer 2pc this time. The US fiscal deficit has dropped to 2.8pc but is expected to climb again as pension and health care costs bite, even if the economy does well. The US cannot easily launch a fresh New Deal. Public debt was just 38pc on GDP when Franklin Roosevelt took power in 1933, and there were few contingent liabilities hanging over future US finances. “Fiscal stimulus – a novel idea at the time – may have been controversial, but the chances of it working to boost economic activity were quite high given the healthy starting position. Today, it is much more difficult to make the same argument,” he said.

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” The reason for the fall in new loans is clear. There is a fundamental lack of demand in China.”

Did China Just Launch World’s Biggest Spending Plan? (Gordon Chang)

Beijing has just initiated a round of accelerated government spending, and it will, in all probability, end up as the biggest such effort today. Wednesday, the Chinese central government announced both the allocation of 1.13 trillion yuan ($185.8 billion) for upgrading internet infrastructure and the creation of a 124.3 billion yuan fund for affordable housing. These expenditures follow Monday’s authorization of six new rail lines costing 250 billion yuan. This month, as Xinhua News Agency reports, Beijing has unveiled a “pro-growth measure” at the rate of one every two days. April was a banner month for Beijing’s spenders as well. The Ministry of Finance reported a 33.2% increase in fiscal spending compared with same month in 2014.

For the last several years, Beijing has been using fiscal stimulus in varying amounts to keep the economy humming. No one, however, thought Premier Li Keqiang, generally considered a reformer, would resort to the old-line, anti-reform tactic of massive government spending. There were two principal reasons for this belief. First, many thought Beijing had finally opted for fundamental restructuring to grow the economy. Analysts hailed the issuance of the Communist Party’s November 2013 Third Plenum decision, which promised substantial reforms, as proof of the political victory of those favoring progressive change.

Fiscal spending, on the other hand, has been considered the antithesis of reform because investment-led growth—the result of that spending—would only take China further away from the ultimate goal of reform, a consumption-based economy. Second, analysts believed just about everyone in Beijing had come to the inescapable conclusion that former Premier Wen Jiabao’s crash stimulus program, authorized in late 2008, was a huge mistake, largely because it had resulted in grossly inefficient usage of capital, large asset bubbles, and far too much debt. Yet the universally accepted view that there would be no large stimulus was premised on the assumption that the economy would respond to small-scale stimulus.

The economy, unfortunately, has not. Perhaps the most indicative statistic to come out of Beijing in recent days is that, despite all the monetary loosening since the end of last year, there were only 707.9 billion yuan of new loans in April, down from 1.18 trillion yuan in March. The reason for the fall in new loans is clear. There is a fundamental lack of demand in China.

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“..a preliminary Reuters poll last week predicted adjusted Q1 U.S. GDP numbers due on Friday would be massively revised down and show a 0.7% contraction..”

G7 Finance Ministers To Address Faltering Global Growth (Reuters)

Finance ministers from the world’s largest developed economies meet in Germany this week against a backdrop of faltering global growth, scant inflationary pressures and a bond market in turmoil. High on their agenda – even if unofficially – will be Greece and how it can stay in the troubled euro zone. Figures due on Friday from the United States that will almost certainly show the world’s biggest economy contracted last quarter are also likely to feature. “With the negotiations between Greece and the rest of the euro area at an impasse, an impatient German Chancellor Merkel has warned that an agreement must be reached before the end of the month,” said Thomas Costerg, senior economist at Standard Chartered.

Greece cannot make a payment to the IMF due on June 5 unless foreign lenders disburse more aid, a senior ruling party lawmaker said on Wednesday, the latest warning from Athens it is on the verge of default. Analysts largely agree the country’s cash squeeze is increasingly acute and fresh aid will be needed sooner or later to avoid bankruptcy. Merkel and French President Francois Hollande held talks on Thursday with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on the sidelines of a European Union summit in Riga, hoping to speed the resolution of Athens’ debt crisis. With business growth slowing in the euro zone and factory activity contracting again in China, market watchers have been looking to the United States to drive a pick-up in growth.

But a preliminary Reuters poll last week predicted that adjusted first quarter U.S. GDP numbers due on Friday would be massively revised down and show a 0.7% contraction in the first three months of this year. “The poor Q1 2015 performance follows growth of just 2.2% in Q4 2014, so there has been very little growth over the last couple of quarters,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. “As a result, market participants have started to wonder again whether the U.S. economy might be in an extended period of secular stagnation.”

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And there should be.

Schaeuble Expects Conflict at Dresden G-7 Over Austerity Policy (Bloomberg)

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble expects a political tussle with his partners over austerity policy when G-7 finance ministers meet on May 27-May 29 in Dresden. Germany’s advocacy of budget cuts to heal euro-zone woes will come under attack at the meeting, Schaeuble said in a pamphlet distributed Saturday. The German government will face “demand-side” opponents of its policy in Dresden, he said without mentioning France or Italy or the U.S. “’Demand-side’ advocates will make clear in Dresden that cutting public spending leads to weaker demand for goods and services,” the minister said in a pamphlet distributed in the Dresden newspaper Saechsische Zeitung.

Germany’s position is that “solid public finance” boosts investment and growth, he said. Risks to Europe’s economic outlook stemming from the unresolved Greek crisis as well concern over the U.S. trade gap may fuse an alliance of France, Italy and the U.S. in Dresden. All three states fret that Germany’s rigorous advocacy of budget austerity may be holding back economic growth in Europe. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew urged Germany to boost public investment to spur imports from Europe and spark a cycle of economic growth that would also benefit the U.S.

The U.S. trade gap widened in March to the biggest in more than six years while Germany in 2014 again reported a record surplus. The U.S. has also called for a quicker fix of Greece’s problems in a sign that it views Germany’s unmoving insistence that Greece fulfill bailout terms as a risk. Lew said Friday that failure to reach a deal quickly would create hardship for Greece, uncertainties for Europe and the global economy. Schaeuble remains adamant that Germany’s stance on sound budgeting is the right one, if unpopular. “Further convincing needs to be done” at Dresden, he said in his pamphlet.

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Next weekend is a holiday weekend in Greece. Fears of capital controls.

Greece Hasn’t Got The Money To Make June IMF Repayment (Reuters)

Greece cannot make debt repayments to the IMF next month unless it achieves a deal with creditors, its interior minister said on Sunday, the most explicit remarks yet from Athens about the likelihood of default if talks fail. Shut out of bond markets and with bailout aid locked, cash-strapped Athens has been scraping state coffers to meet debt obligations and to pay wages and pensions. With its future as a member of the 19-nation euro zone potentially at stake, a second government minister accused its international lenders of subjecting it to slow and calculated torture. After four months of talks with its euro zone partners and the IMF, the leftist-led government is still scrambling for a deal that could release up to 7.2 billion euros ($7.9 billion) in remaining aid to avert bankruptcy.

“The four installments for the IMF in June are €1.6 billion. This money will not be given and is not there to be given,” Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis told Greek Mega TV’s weekend show. Voutsis was asked about his concern over a ‘credit event’, a term covering scenarios like bankruptcy or default, if Athens misses a payment. “We are not seeking this, we don’t want it, it is not our strategy,” he said. “We are discussing, based on our contained optimism, that there will be a strong agreement (with lenders) so that the country will be able to breathe. This is the bet,” Voutsis said. Previously, the Athens government has said it is in danger of running out of money soon without a deal, but has insisted it still plans to make all upcoming payments.

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The unbalance of global power.

Greece’s Misery Shows We Need Chapter 11 Bankruptcy For Countries (Guardian)

Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s combative prime minister, is facing yet another week of fraught negotiations as he and his team struggle to agree a shopping list of economic reforms stringent enough to appease the country’s creditors, but different enough from the grinding austerity of the past five years to satisfy the Greek electorate. And all the while, bank deposits will leach out of the country, investment plans will remain on hold and consumers hammered by years of austerity will continue living hand to mouth. Change the actors – and the stakes – and it’s a tired plotline familiar to many governments across the world. According to Eurodad, the coalition of civil society groups that campaigns on debt, there have been 600 sovereign debt restructurings since the 1950s – with many governments, including Argentina for example, experiencing one wrenching write-off after another.

Many of these countries plunged deeper into recession as a result of the uncertainty and delay inherent in this bewildering process and the punishing austerity policies inflicted on them, with a resulting collapse in investor and consumer confidence. Argentina defaulted in 2001. Fourteen years later, it is still being pursued through the courts by so-called vulture funds, which buy distressed countries’ debts on the cheap and use every legal device they can to reclaim the money. Yet while the world’s policymakers have expended countless hours since the crisis of 2008 rewriting regulations on bonuses, mortgage lending, derivatives and too-big-to-fail banks, little attention has been paid to what should happen when a government is on the brink of financial meltdown.

Sacha Llorenti, the Bolivian ambassador to the UN, is currently touring the world’s capitals trying to change that. “We’re not just talking about a financial issue; it’s an issue related to growth, to development, to social and economic rights,” he says. The UN is not the obvious forum for discussing debt restructuring: unlike the IMF, it is not a lender of last resort with emergency cash to disburse, and doesn’t have a seat around the table when countries have to go to their creditors to ask for help. Yet also unlike the IMF, the UN general assembly is not dominated by the world’s major powers: each member country has one vote.

When Argentina tabled a motion calling for the UN to examine the issue of sovereign debt restructuring last autumn, 124 countries voted for it; 11, including the UK and the US, with their powerful financial lobbies, voted against; and there were 41 abstentions. Llorenti, who is chairing the UN “ad hoc committee” set up as a result of that vote, says the 11 countries that objected hold 45% of the voting power at the IMF. He believes they would prefer the matter to be tackled there, where they can shape the arguments: “It’s a matter of control, really.”

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Support for Syriza is still very high. But people are afraid to.

Greeks Back Government’s Red Lines, But Want To Keep Euro (AFP)

Cash-strapped Greeks remain supportive of the leftist government’s tough negotiating style, according to a new poll published Sunday, but hope for a deal with creditors that will keep the euro in their wallets. The poll conducted in May by Public Issue for the pro-government newspaper Avgi, shows 54% backing the SYRIZA-led government’s handling of the negotiations despite the tension with Greece’s international lenders. A total 59% believe Athens must not give in to demands by its creditors, with 89% against pension cuts and 81% against mass lay-offs. The SYRIZA-led government is locked in talks with the EU, ECB and the IMF to release a blocked final €7.2-billion tranche of its bailout.

In exchange for the aid, creditors are demanding Greece accept tough reforms and spending cuts that anti-austerity Syriza pledged to reject when it was elected in January. According to reports, creditors are demanding further budget cuts worth €5 billion including pension cuts and mass lay-offs. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras made clear on Saturday however that his government “won’t budge to irrational demands” that involve crossing Syriza’s campaign “red lines”. Greece faces a series of debt repayments beginning next month seen as all but impossible to meet without the blocked bailout funds. Failure to honour those payments could result in default, raising the spectre of a possible exit from the euro. That is a scenario Greeks hope to avert, with 71% of those polled wanting to keep the euro while 68% said a return to the drachma could worsen the economic situation.

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Yanies takes aim at the media.

The Truth About Riga (Yanis Varoufakis)

It was the 24th of April. The Eurogroup meeting taking place that day in Latvia was of great importance to Greece. It was the last Eurogroup meeting prior to the deadline (30th April) that we had collectively decided upon (back in the 20th February Eurogroup meeting) for an agreement on the set of reforms that Greece would implement so as to unlock, in a timely fashion, the deadlock with our creditors. During that Eurogroup meeting, which ended in disagreement, the media began to report ‘leaks’ from the room presenting to the world a preposterously false view of what was being said within. Respected journalists and venerable news media reported lies and innuendos concerning both what my colleagues allegedly said to me and also my alleged responses and my presentation of the Greek position.

The days and weeks that followed were dominated by these false stories which almost everyone (despite my steady, low-key, denials) assumed to be accurate reports. The public, under that wall of disinformation, became convinced that, during the 24th April Riga Eurogroup meeting, my fellow ministers called me insulting names (“time waster”, “gambler”, “amateur” etc. were some of the reported insults), that I lost my temper, and that, as a result, my Prime Minister later “sidelined” me from the negotiations. (It was even reported that I would not be attending the following Eurogroup meeting, or that I would be ‘supervised’ by some other ministerial colleague.) Of course none of the above was even remotely true.

My fellow ministers never, ever addressed me in anything other than collegial, polite, respectful terms.
• I did not lose my temper during that meeting, or at any other point.
• I continue to negotiate with my fellow ministers of finance, leading the Greek side at the Eurogroup.
• Then came a New York Times Magazine story which raised the possibility of a recording of that Eurogroup meeting. All of a sudden, the journalists and news media that propagated the lies and the innuendos about the 24th April Eurogroup meeting changed tack. Without a whiff of an apology for the torrent of untruths they had peddled against me for weeks, they now began to depict me as a ‘spoof’ who had “betrayed” the confidentiality of the Eurogroup.

This morning I went on the record on the Andrew Marr television show (BBC1) on this issue. I am taking this opportunity to commit the truth in writing also here – on my trusted blog. So here it goes:

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Bruno is dead on.

The Bloodied Idealogues vs. The Bloodthirsty Technocrats (StealthFlation)

On the grave Greek question, it appears that the moment of truth is finally upon us. After nearly four months of frenetic, fruitless and often feckless high level deliberations and negotiations, both sides remain essentially at an impasse, right where they started. The technocrats in Brussels want to see their austerity driven reform program carried forward and implemented unconditionally. As for the idealogues in Athens, they have pledged to put forth their own enlightened approach to rescue their sinking society. The Technocrats hold the purse strings, but the Ideologues hold the heart strings. For what it’s worth, that is typically a highly combustible combination, tick tock. With their recent cocksure bravado, are the Technocrats entirely misreading the desperate determination of the Idealogues?

Get ready for yet another Euro Summer swoon.. Everyone agrees that Greece, under a corrupt political oligarchy, grossly abused its privileges as a Eurozone member. In fact, with the help of a few sleazy sophisticated Goldman Sachs financiers, they actually cheated on their application forms in order to join the exclusive club to begin with. The illegitimate Ionian books were cooked from the get go, and it only got worse and worse over time. The self serving political elites and their self-seeking sponsors at multinational banks and corporations ran up a massive tab, while their ill-fated nation did not have the wherewithal to pay the astronomical bills. That is essentially what happened here. Oh, and the parties specifically involved all happened to personally get rather wealthy themselves along the way.

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National elections at the end of the year could reinforce the changes.

Spain’s Ruling Party Battered In Local And Regional Elections (EUObserver)

Spain took a turn towards the new left in Sunday’s regional and local elections, putting an end to the dominating two-party system. Despite having won the most votes in the elections across Spain on Sunday (24 May), Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s centre-right PP party has lost all of its absolute majorities and will now often depend on coalitions and pacts with other parties. Compromises and coalitions between parties is new in Spain where more than 30 years of alternating power between the socialists and the conservatives is being challenged by an ncreasingly fragmented political system including anti-austerity party Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos.

The biggest changes have been the move towards the new left parties in Barcelona and maybe also in Madrid – depending on a possible pact between a Podemos-supporting coalition called Ahora Madrid and the Social Democrats (PSOE). It would be the first time the Spanish capital would have a leftwing Mayor in the last 25 years. “It is clear that a majority for change has won,” said Manuela Carmena, the 71 year-old emeritus judge of the Spanish Supreme Court who wants to become Madrid’s new mayor. She is one seat short of Madrid’s former conservative Mayor Esperanza Aguirre. However, with the support of Social Democrats – who came third – the two left-wing parties could together hold the absolute majority in Madrid. Barcelona’s new Mayor Ada Colau calls for “more social justice” and leads a coalition of left-wing parties and citizens’ organisations called ‘Barcelona en Comú’, which includes members of Podemos.

“We are proud that this process hasn’t just been an exception in Barcelona, this is an unstoppable democratic revolution in Catalonia, in [Spain] and hopefully in southern Europe,” Colau said last night after it became clear that she had won a small majority in the Catalan capital. Colau, a former anti-eviction activist, was one of the founders of a platform for people affected by mortgages – Plataforma Afectados por la Hipoteca (PAH) – which won the European Parliament’s European Citizens’ Prize in 2013. The PAH was set up in response to the hike in evictions caused by abusive mortgage clauses during the collapse of the Spanish property market eight years ago. Colau herself entered politics last year calling for “more and better democracy” and a clean-up of corruption in politics.

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Curious development?!

Catalan Independence Bid Rocked by Podemos Victory in Barcelona (Bloomberg)

Catalan President Artur Mas’s bid to win independence from the rest of Spain was gasping for air on Sunday as voters in Barcelona ousted his party from city hall. Voters in the regional capital picked Podemos-backed activist Ada Colau as their next mayor, as the pro-independence parties Mas is aiming to lead to an overall majority in Catalonia won 45% of the vote. The regional leader has pledged to call an early regional election this year to prove to officials in Madrid the support for leaving Spain. “Mas is in deep trouble,” said Ken Dubin, a political scientist at the Instituto de Empresa business school in Madrid and Lord Ashcroft International Business School in Cambridge, England.

Colau, 41, gained national prominence during the financial crisis leading a campaign to stop banks evicting families from their homes after they defaulted on their mortgages. She joined forces with anti-austerity party Podemos, an ally of Greece’s governing party Syriza, for her assault on city hall. Her coalition, Barcelona en Comu, won 25% of the vote and 11 representatives in the 41-seat city assembly, the Spanish Interior Ministry said on its website. CiU won 10 seats compared with 14 in 2011. Barcelona accounts for about a third of the Catalan economy and hosts all the major regional institutions. “This result adds uncertainty to the planning process because it wasn’t considered a possibility,” said Jaume Lopez, a pro-independence political scientist at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. “We will see whether that uncertainty becomes a problem.”

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So screwed…

Auckland Nears $1 Million Average House Price (Guardian)

Economists in New Zealand have expressed alarm at a housing market boom which could soon see average prices of property in the country’s largest city pass the $1m mark. In Auckland, the cost of an average domestic property has risen from $550,000 during the last property boom in 2007 to nearly $810,000 now. House prices increased at a rate of 14% last year, while the rest of the country’s index remained stable. Some houses are increasing in value by $1,000 every day while 36 suburbs in the city now have an average house value of $1m or more. And at current rates the whole city’s average will be $1m within a year-and-a-half.

The National government has in part recognised the boom and taken action for the first time to tackle what many believe is a housing crisis. It announced a multimillion dollar development plan to build affordable homes, a move added to a previously announced tax on property speculators. But some economists believe more needs to be done, and while growth is expected to slow, that will merely move the $1m mark back a month or two. Small, one–bedroom apartments are selling for $800,000 and delapidated wrecks in barely desirable suburbs are fetching more than $1m. Senior research analyst Nick Goodall of property analytics company CoreLogic said: “It is inevitable the average price in Auckland will be $1m.”

In the past 15 years housing has seen a phenomenal investment in Auckland, as huge demand and limited supply has increased prices at record levels. Expensive land, and restrictions on building new and denser housing, has seen limited new stock come on the market. And a strong economy, record net migration, especially to Auckland, and banks happy to lend money in a market with significant capital gains, has seen people paying over the top of each other. “The narrative goes because it has been good in the last 10 or 15 years, it must be good forever,” said Shamubeel Eaqub, principal economist at the Institute of Economic Research. But it is impossible for this to continue, he says. “Auckland is in a massive bubble.”

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“.. it’s 8000% more expensive than normal cotton seed. But normal cotton seed is largely unavailable to Indian farmers because of Monsanto’s control of the seed market..”

Monsanto’s GMO Cotton Problems Drive Indian Farmers To Suicide (RT)

Hundreds of thousands of farmers have died in India, after having been allegedly forced to grow GM cotton instead of traditional crops. The seeds are so expensive and demand so much more maintenance that farmers often go bankrupt and kill themselves. “Nationally, in the last 20 years 290,000 farmers have committed suicide – this as per national crimes bureau records,” agricultural scientist Dr. G. V. Ramanjaneyulu of the Center For Sustainable Agriculture told RTD, which traveled to India to learn about the issue. A number of the widows and family members of Indian farmers with whom the journalists have spoken have the same story to share: in order to cultivate the genetically modified cotton, known as Bt cotton, produced by American agricultural biotech giant Monsanto, farmers put themselves into huge debt.

However, when the crops did not pay off, they turned to pesticides to solve the problem – by drinking the poison to kill themselves. “My husband took poison. [On discovering him dead], I found papers in his pocket – he had huge debts. He had mortgaged our land, and he killed himself because of those debts,” one widow told RTD. “[He killed himself] with a bottle of pesticide… All because of the loans. He took them for the farm. He told our kids he was bankrupt,” another widow said. “He worked all day, but it was hard to make the field pay,” her daughter added. Farming GM crops in rural India requires irrigation for success. However, since rich farmers often distribute the seeds directly to the poorer ones, many smaller, less educated farmers are not aware of the special conditions Bt cotton requires to be farmed successfully.

“Bt cotton has been promoted as something that actually solves problems of Indian farmers who are cultivating cotton. But something that has been promoted as a crisis solution, creates even more problems,” agricultural scientist Kirankumar Vissa said. “There are many places where it is not suitable for cultivation. On the seed packages, Bt cotton seed companies say that it is suitable for both irrigated and non-irrigated conditions – this is basically deception of the farmers,” the scientist said, adding that Monsanto also spends huge amounts of money on advertising in India, with paid for publications not always clearly marked as such.

Saying that only Bt cotton is available in India, Alexis Baden-Mayer, political director of Organic Consumers Association, says this crop requires many inputs. “It is incredibly expensive; it’s 8,000% more expensive than normal cotton seed. But normal cotton seed is largely unavailable to Indian farmers because of Monsanto’s control of the seed market,” she told RTD, adding that India is now the fourth largest producer of genetically modified crops.

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Genetic diversity is huge.

‘Incredibly Diverse’, Endangered Plankton Provide Half The World’s Oxygen (SR)

After a three-and-a-half year, sometimes harrowing, sea voyage covering some 87,000 miles of ocean, a team of researchers from the Tara Oceans Consortium is revealing details of “the most complete description yet of planktonic organisms to date,” co-author of a study published in the journal Science, Dr. Chris Bowler from the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris, told BBC News. Plankton is the term for a myriad of microscopic species that are at the ground floor of the oceans’ food chain. One type, zooplankton, gives sustenance to larger organisms, which are then consumed by larger animals, and so on. Without the tiny zooplankton, marine life could not sustain itself. Another type of plankton, called phytoplankton, produce their own food the same way plants do: through photosynthesis.

This process not only sucks up heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it produces oxygen upon which life on planet Earth depends. The researchers report collecting 35,000 samples from 210 sites around the world’s oceans. Their analyses reveal not only an astounding genetic diversity among the plankton—about 40 million genes, which is about four times more than are found in the human gut—but that these organisms contribute about 50% of all the world’s oxygen, according to report by Tech Times. “Plankton are much more than just food for the whales,” said Dr. Bowler, in a report by Reuters. “Although tiny, these organisms are a vital part of the Earth’s life support system, providing half of the oxygen generated each year on Earth by photosynthesis and lying at the base of marine food chains on which all other ocean life depends.”

But what worries scientists is that climate change and warming oceans are causing some plankton to die off, according several studies, including by researchers at two universities in the UK who published their 2013 study in the journal Nature Climate Change. This is because as oceans warm, the natural cycles of nitrogen, phosphorous, and carbon dioxide are disturbed—a disruption that negatively affects the plankton. Dr. Bowler and his team also found that many marine microorganisms are sensitive to variations in temperature, “and with changing temperatures as a result of climate change we are likely to see changes in this community,” he told the BBC. Because of the massive amount of DNA data now made available to scientists everywhere by the newly released study—only 2% so far has been analyzed, Bowler says—future research is sure to shed more light on the way marine ecosystems function.

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Apr 272015
 
 April 27, 2015  Posted by at 1:05 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  3 Responses »


Jack Delano Brakeman H.B. Van Santford on the AT&SF line from Summit to San Bernardino 1943

Debt Addiction Could Send Us The Way Of The Mayans (Satyajit Das )
Negative Interest Rates: The Black Hole of The Financial System (SI)
The S&P 500 Has A Serious Revenue Problem (CNBC)
Boston Fed Admits There Is No Exit, Suggests QE Become “New Normal” (Zero Hedge)
China Inc. Finds Cure to Debt Hangover in Stock-Market Boom (Bloomberg)
Chinese Energy Figures Suggest Much Slower Growth Than Advertised (Cobb)
China Considers Launching QE; Shanghai Stocks Soar (Zero Hedge)
Talking To My Daughter About The Economy (Yanis Varoufakis)
Greece’s Day of Reckoning Inches Closer as Debt Payments Loom
Greeks Add Pressure on Tsipras to Compromise as Talks Resume (Bloomberg)
The “War on Cash” in 10 Spine-Chilling Quotes (Don Quijones)
Deutsche Bank’s Record Fine Reveals Its Rotten Heart (Coppola)
World’s Coolest Economist Hot On His Numbers (NZ Herald)
Putin Says US Helped North Caucasus Militants In The 2000s (Guardian)
Russian Jews Face ‘Grave Dangers’ If Putin Is Ousted, Warns Senior Rabbi (RT)
Chipotle Removes All GMO Ingredients From Menu (WSJ)
Forget The ‘War On Smuggling’, We Need To Be Helping Refugees (Guardian)
Five Billion People ‘Have No Access To Safe Surgery’ (BBC)

“It isn’t that they can’t see the solution. It is that they can’t see the problem.”

Debt Addiction Could Send Us The Way Of The Mayans (Satyajit Das )

Nowadays many countries’ social and political structure relies on debt-driven consumption and increasing levels of entitlements. Blame the policy makers. To drive economic growth, boost living standards, and manage growing inequality, policy makers have used debt and monetary tools to create economic activity. This has resulted in excessive borrowing and imbalances in global trade and capital. Governments played a part, too, allowing the buildup of social entitlements to win or maintain office. Private companies also encouraged the growth of employee benefits to avoid immediate pressure on wages as well as boost current earnings and share prices. But such expensive commitments were rarely fully funded.

Rather than deal with the fundamental issues, policy makers substituted public spending, financed by government debt or central banks, to boost demand. Strong growth and higher inflation, they hoped or believed, would correct the problems. The current state of affairs echoes Archaeologist Arthur Demarest’s observation about the Mayan civilization: “Society had evolved too many elites, all demanding exotic baubles…all needed quetzal feathers, jade, obsidian, fine chert, and animal furs. Nobility is expensive, non-productive and parasitic, siphoning away too much of society’s energy to satisfy its frivolous cravings.” Seven years into this crisis, the level of debt in major economies has increased. Global imbalances have decreased, but primarily as a result of slower economic growth.

Countries such as China and Germany are reluctant to inflate their domestic economies, moving away from their export-driven model. Major borrowers, such as the U.S., refuse to reduce spending and bring their public finances into order. Enthusiasm for fundamental financial reform has dissipated, driven by concern that lower credit growth will decrease economic growth. Policy makers refused to acknowledge that available fiscal and monetary policy tools cannot address the underlying problems. They repeatedly use complex jargon, obscure mathematics and tired ideologies to disguise their failures and limitations. Perhaps, as the writer G. K. Chesterton suggested: “It isn’t that they can’t see the solution. It is that they can’t see the problem.”

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” If this is how the system ends up working, we fear that the effects will be irreversible.”

Negative Interest Rates: The Black Hole of The Financial System (SI)

A black swan event is a metaphor for an enormous problem that develops underneath the surface and then suddenly puts the whole financial system at risk. The financial crisis of 2008 was a black swan event, for example, that slowly developed in the US real estate market where excess had ruled in the years before. Today, market conditions are ideal for a new black swan event to develop. An event like this takes people by surprise, because it matures under the radar in places where no one is looking. Today, for example, everyone is afraid of deflation. That means that everyone is also trying to prepare for deflation.

If everyone takes measures against deflation you get a mass migration to cash and government bonds, however, which are the assets that perform the best in a deflationary environment. Take a look at Japan: the yen had been on the rise for years up until the Japanese central bank took exceptionally aggressive monetary measures to fight the trend (at which they succeeded). Japanese investors historically also like its country’s government bonds, however, ever since deflation tormented the country in the ‘90s. At one point you got a 5% yield on a 10-year Japanese government bond, today you get 0.3% per year for the next 10 years. [..]

Who is going to save money then? Not a single soul, of course. People will start to create debt en masse, because it is the better and cheaper option. The resulting investments will rise in value, moreover, when an increasing amount of people take on debt in search for returns. Things cannot get a lot crazier than this. If this is how the system ends up working, we fear that the effects will be irreversible. It is like a black hole that sucks in more and more matter – read: capital – and never lets go. This financial black hole story will also end with a sudden implosion, a flash of light and a big bang, just like in space, and those who do not own hard assets at that point in time could lose every bit of wealth they’ve ever accumulated.

As Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Fed and original promoter of monetary expansion, said once: “Or how you can lose your savings in a blink of an eye”. The big issue is that we do not see any measure that can reverse this process. Governments are not moving a finger to turn things around; and why would they? They are on the side of the debt creators; the ones that are profiting enormously from this black hole. Central bankers are frustrated, however, because they do not have a lot of tools other than to make monetary demands more flexible, which has the wrong effect: it accelerates the wildfire of negative interest rates.

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Why make money when stock proces keep rising and you can borrow your way into profit?

The S&P 500 Has A Serious Revenue Problem (CNBC)

The bottom line of earnings season adds up to this: companies are running into big trouble with their top lines. While companies generally tend to beat both earnings and revenue expectations, this year more have missed their first-quarter top-line estimates than beaten. Out of the first 201 S&P 500 Index companies to report first-quarter earnings, only 47% have beaten revenue estimates, according to FactSet. If this number holds, it will be the first time that more companies have missed than beaten earnings expectations since the first quarter of 2013.

Now, analysts on the whole expect to see S&P 500 revenue fall 3.5% year-over-year, whereas they had expected just a 2.6% drop when the first quarter ended. Meanwhile, earnings have surpassed analyst expectations nicely, with 73% of companies beating earnings-per-share estimates, according to FactSet. That’s equal to the five-year averag epercentage of beats. The surging dollar and sliding crude oil have certainly played a role in leading to this divergence.

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“.. the Fed’s exit strategy is that there should be no exit.”

Boston Fed Admits There Is No Exit, Suggests QE Become “New Normal” (Zero Hedge)

Perhaps it was inevitable. After all, the term “QEfinity” entered the financial lexicon long ago and there were already quite a few commentators out there suggesting that it may now be too late to remove the punchbowl, meaning an “exit” will not only prove difficult, but may well be impossible. Take Makoto Utsumi, who oversaw foreign-exchange policy at the Japanese Ministry of Finance from 1989-1991, for example. Utsumi recently said a BoJ QE exit was out of the question “for the foreseeable future” and went on to note that “even the thought of an exit is a nightmare.”

Meanwhile, it’s virtually impossible to say what effect Fed tightening will have in both the Treasury and corporate bond markets given the lack of liquidity in both and then there’s EM where carnage unfolded in 2013 after a certain bearded bureaucrat said the wrong thing about the direction of Fed policy. Given all of this, we’re not surprised to learn that in a new paper entitled “Let’s Talk About It: What Policy Tools Should The Fed ‘Normally’ Use?”, the Boston Fed is now suggesting that QE become a permanent tool at the disposal of the Fed. After all, “financial stability” depends on it…

During the onset of a very severe financial and economic crisis in 2008, the federal funds rate reached the zero lower bound (ZLB). With this primary monetary policy tool therefore rendered ineffective, in November 2008 the Federal Reserve started to use its balance sheet as an alternative policy tool when it began the large-scale asset purchases. Now attention is turning to how the Fed should transition back to a more conventional monetary policy stance. Largely missing from these discussions about the Fed’s “exit strategy” is a consideration that perhaps it should retain, not discard, the balance sheet tools.

Yes, oddly missing from the Fed’s exit strategy is the idea that there should be no exit.

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Sounds like a dangerous cure.

China Inc. Finds Cure to Debt Hangover in Stock-Market Boom (Bloomberg)

China Inc. is turning to the stock market for a cure to its unprecedented debt hangover. As authorities show a newfound tolerance for defaults and debt levels at Shanghai Composite Index members climb to all-time highs, Chinese companies are increasingly tapping the equity market for funds to pay down liabilities and invest in growth. They’ve announced $82 billion of secondary stock offerings in 2015, a figure UBS predicts will increase to a record $161 billion by December. That comes on top of $10 billion already raised through IPOs. Investor appetite for new shares has rarely been stronger after a world-beating rally in the Shanghai Composite added $4.4 trillion to China’s market capitalization over the past year.

While the gains came too late to stave off the first default on domestic debt by a state-run company last week, officials at both China’s securities regulator and the central bank have endorsed the flow of funds into equities as a way to support an economy growing at the slowest pace since 2009. “Valuations are very high now thanks to the stock rally and capital is very cheap,” said Xu Gao, the chief economist at China Everbright. “Companies that have access to the stock market will be able to tap the cheap funds.” Equity fundraising in China surpassed net sales of corporate debt last month for just the third time in the past three years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In one of the latest examples of the shift, China Eastern Airlines said on April 23 that it plans to sell as much as 15 billion yuan ($2.4 billion) of stock to fund the purchase of 23 planes and pay off debt. Shares rose 10% in Shanghai after the news as they resumed trading following a two-week halt.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, a drugmaker backed by billionaire Guo Guangchang, said April 16 it will raise as much as 5.8 billion yuan from a stock sale and apply more than 60% of the proceeds toward repaying debt. Lingyuan Iron & Steel, whose share price has more than doubled in the past 12 months, said in February it will sell as much as 2 billion yuan of shares in a private placement to repay bank loans. The aggregate debt-to-equity ratio for companies in the Shanghai Composite reached 165% in January, the highest level since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 2005.

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“February data showed a 6.3% decline in electricity consumption from the previous month. March saw another decline of 2.2%.”

Chinese Energy Figures Suggest Much Slower Growth Than Advertised (Cobb)

Last year China reported the slowest economic growth in 24 years, about 7.4%. But the true figure may actually be much lower, and the evidence is buried in electricity figures which show just 3.8% growth in electricity consumption. David Fridley, a staff scientist in the China Energy Group at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, has been a longtime collaborator with the Chinese on energy management, efficiency and policy. Fridley, who has held Chinese energy-related jobs for 35 years, believes that electricity consumption in China is a better indicator of its economic growth. Historically, electricity consumption and economic growth in China have been very closely linked. “From 2005 to 2013, the average elasticity of electricity demand was 1.09, meaning electricity demand was up about 1.09% for every % rise in GDP,” Fridley wrote.

“In 2014, that number fell to 0.51, the lowest in this 10-year period. During the economic crisis of 2008, it did fall below the average, to 0.60, but quickly rebounded to above 1.” That tells Fridley that something is up. He’s not the only one who thinks the government growth numbers aren’t reliable. China’s premier, Li Keqiang, has said China’s GDP figures are “for reference only.” Bloomberg reported that in a declassified U.S. diplomatic cable from 2007 then-U.S. ambassador Clark Randt related a dinner conversation with Li, secretary general of Liaoning Province at the time, in which Li revealed his preferred indicators of Chinese economic activity: rail cargo volume, loan disbursements and–wait for it–electricity consumption. China’s leaders don’t believe their own government growth numbers.

Fridley notes that electricity consumption figures are considered quite reliable and have suffered only minor revisions over the years. Preliminary numbers for the first quarter of 2015 suggest further slowing of the economy as year-over-year electricity consumption growth decelerated to just 0.8%. February data showed a 6.3% decline in electricity consumption from the previous month. March saw another decline of 2.2%. Fridley also notes that residential electricity growth registered an extraordinary fall: “From 1980 to 2013, residential electricity grew on average 13.5% a year—and last year it fell to 2.2%. From 2005 to 2013, elasticity of residential energy demand was 1.11, and fell to 0.30 in 2014. This is unprecedented.”

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“..finally leading to the terminal phase for fiat currencies.”

China Considers Launching QE; Shanghai Stocks Soar (Zero Hedge)

Nearly two months ago we explained “How Beijing Is Responding To A Soaring Dollar, And Why QE In China Is Now Inevitable” in which we cited Cornerstone who reminded us “that from 2007 to late 2008, U.S. fed funds dropped 500 bp, and then the Fed still needed to do QE? The backdrop for China looks a bit similar. We had a credit bubble, they have a credit bubble. We had a housing bubble, they have a housing/investment bubble. Will China eventually have to go down the same path as the U.S., and the Eurozone? … The PBoC will first cut rates to 0%, before contemplating QE.”

To this we added that “once China, that final quasi-Western nation, proceeds to engage in outright monetization of its debt, then and only then will the terminal phase of the global currency wars start: a phase which will, because global economic growth and that all important lifeblood of a globalized economy – trade – at that point will be zero if not negatve, will see an unprecedented crescendo of money printing by absolutely everyone, before coordinated devaluations mutate into uncoordinated, and when central bank actions morph from “all for one” to “each man for himself.” We may not have long to wait because just hours ago, MarketNews first among the wire services hinted at what we suggested was the endgame.

*PBOC DISCUSSING DIRECT PURCHASES OF LOCAL GOVT BONDS: MNI; *PBOC IS DISCUSSING UNCONVENTIONAL POLICIES: MNI

Bloomberg adds more, citing MNI as saying that the Chinese central bank discussing “adopting unconventional policies to rebuild its balance sheet and reinvigorate economy, including making direct purchases of local government bonds from market.” Of just as we predicted. MNI continues that “although wide range of possibilities tabled about how PBOC operations could change, common thread of discussion involves need to expand balance sheet to ensure supply of liquidity meets economy’s demands, report says.” In other words, China is about to engage in the biggest QE of them all, and drown the world with exported deflation as the global supply glut which we explained yesterday, hits unprecedented levels and ultimately leads to the biggest inventory dumping phase in global history which central bankers will have no choice but to offset with Friedman’s infamous “helicopter drop” of money, finally leading to the terminal phase for fiat currencies.

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“..European peoples [..] to be set apart by a… common currency.”

Talking To My Daughter About The Economy (Yanis Varoufakis)

One of the enduring memories from my early childhood is the crackling sound of Deutsche Welle radio transmissions. Those were the bleak years of our dictatorship (1967-1974) when Deutsche Welle was the Greeks’ most precious ally against the crushing power of state propaganda. Mum and dad would huddle together next to the wireless, sometimes covered by a blanket to make sure that nosy neighbours would not get a chance to call the secret police. Night after night these ‘forbidden’ radio programs brought into our home a breath of fresh air from a country, Germany, that was standing firm on the side of Greek democrats. While I was too young to understand what the radio was telling my mesmerised parents, my child’s imagination identified Germany as a source of hope.

As I am writing this preface to the German edition of a book aimed at another child, my daughter, I feel the urgent need to recount that memory. To turn it into a small homage to the idea of Europe as a realm of shared democratic ideals. A small gesture of defiance against the recent tendency for European peoples, who were hitherto coming closer and closer together, to be set apart by a… common currency. Our European Union began life under the presumption that to achieve political and social union we must first bind together our economic interests; that economics would lead the way to a united European polity. It was a good idea except that, as the years and the decades went by, a problem emerged: our collective understanding of ‘economics’ became increasingly crude.

We slipped into a simplistic mindset according to which the sphere of the economy began decoupling, separating itself from that of politics, of philosophy, of culture. As it did so, the economic sphere acquired massive discursive and social power for itself, thus causing democracy, politics and culture to fade out, to become shadows of their former selves. We economists were, I confess, responsible for this steady erosion of our collective understanding of the economic sphere. Before we knew it, markets were no longer means to be placed in the service of social ends but emerged surreptitiously as ends in themselves.

Under the influence of, on the one hand, financialisation and, on the other, economic theory, we began to resemble Oscar Wilde’s definition of the cynic: one who knows everything about prices and nothing about values. Naturally, our European Union’s institutions also tended towards the conviction that the large decisions should be taken by technocratic committees that constitute ‘politics-free zones’. In an ironic twist the language of economists helped usher in a mindset that jettisoned from the corridors of power and the halls of decision making not only politics and culture but also …economics.

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Daily dose.

Greece’s Day of Reckoning Inches Closer as Debt Payments Loom

Greece will look for ways to assemble enough cash to pay its pensioners and employees this week, after euro area finance ministers on Friday said they won’t disburse more aid until bailout terms are met. Europe’s most-indebted state will use the deposits of local governments, cities and other funds to meet end-of month payments totaling over €1.5 billion.. By doing so, they risk straining liquidity buffers, after households and companies withdrew almost €1.3 billion in savings last week, according to a person who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter.Greece has fought to unlock aid since striking a deal to extend its bailout program in February. The government has repeatedly expressed confidence that a deal was imminent, only to be rebuffed by euro-area officials seeking concrete steps.

Last week was no different: days after Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said views were converging, his counterparts across the region hit him with a volley of criticism.Greek bonds fell on Friday, sending yields on three-year notes up 144 basis points to 26.3%.Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week and later told reporters he was “very optimistic we are closer than before.”Still, support for his confrontational strategy fell to 46% in a University of Macedonia poll for Skai TV published on Tuesday, compared with 56% a month earlier. Researchers interviewed 1,007 people between April 15 and 17 and the margin of error was three percentage points.

The consensus at the IMF meetings in Washington this month was increasingly that a Greek default would be systemically manageable, UBS Chairman Axel Weber told the Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung. The Governing Council of the ECB may debate on May 6 whether to raise the haircut on Greek collateral posted against Emergency Liquidity Assistance, a decision that could worsen the country’s cash squeeze. ECB staff have already proposed increasing the discounts imposed on the securities banks post as collateral when borrowing emergency cash from the Bank of Greece. State coffers may be further depleted on the same day when Greece needs to find €200 million for an IMF payment. Bleeding deposits and unable to access ECB’s regular financing operations while the bailout review remains stalled, Greek lenders currently rely on a €75.5 billion ELA lifeline.

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Making it look like the Greeks hate Syriza. Predictable tactic.

Greeks Add Pressure on Tsipras to Compromise as Talks Resume (Bloomberg)

Greece resumed efforts to break a deadlock with its creditors as weekend polls showed a majority of the country’s people want the government to make compromises needed to release funds for its economy. Two opinion polls published over the weekend showed a continuing drop in support for the government’s confrontational stance in talks with the euro area and the IMF. More than half of respondents in an Alco survey in Proto Thema newspaper said the government should compromise even if creditors reject Greek demands.

“The Greek people are absolutely clear that they want to stay in the euro come what may,” said Aristidis Hatzis, associate professor of law and economics at the University of Athens. “They’ve understood that it will require hard compromises, even austerity.”
Greece is struggling to amass cash to pay its pensioners and employees this week. Europe’s most-indebted state is counting on deposits of local governments, cities and other funds to meet end-of-month payments of over €1.5 billion after euro-area finance ministers on Friday said they won’t disburse more aid until bailout terms are met. State coffers will be further strained on May 6, when Greece needs to find €200 million for an IMF payment.

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Cash will stay.

The “War on Cash” in 10 Spine-Chilling Quotes (Don Quijones)

The war on cash is escalating. As Mises’ Jo Salerno reports, the latest combatant to join the fray is JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S., which recently enacted a policy restricting the use of cash in selected markets; bans cash payments for credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans; and disallows the storage of “any cash or coins” in safe deposit boxes. In other words, the war has moved on from one of words to actions. Here are ten quotes that should chill the spine of any individual who cherishes his or her freedom and anonymity:

1. Kenneth Rogoff (from the intro to his paper The Costs and Benefits to Phasing Out Paper Currency): “Despite advances in transactions technologies, paper currency still constitutes a notable percentage of the money supply in most countries… Yet, it has important drawbacks. First, it can help facilitate activity in the underground (tax-evading) and illegal economy. Second, its existence creates the artifact of the zero bound on the nominal interest rate.”

In other words, cash (not money) is the source of all evil and must be destroyed because governments can’t trace its every movement, and it represents a limiting factor on central banks’ ability to continue their insane negative-interest-rate experiment.

2. Citigroup’s Chief Economist Willem Buiter responds to the monetary economist Charles Goodhart’s description of abolishing currency as “shockingly illiberal.” “(T)his cost has to be seen against the cost that the anonymity of currency presents to society. Even though hard evidence is hard to come by, it is very likely that the underground economy and the criminal community are among the heaviest users of currency.”

This, I believe, is the hidden intent behind all the excited talk about banning cash: to do away with the personal anonymity it offers.

3. France’s finance minister Michel Sapin adds a dose of scare-mongering, which can do wonders. In the wake of the Charlie Hebdo murders, he put much of the blame for the attacks on the assailants’ ability to buy dangerous things with cash. Shortly thereafter he announced a raft of capital controls that included a €1,000 cap on cash payments, down from €3,000. Such radical counter measures were necessary, he said, to “fight against the use of cash and anonymity in the French economy.”

4. Guillermo de la Dehesa, a Spanish economist, former senior civil servant and current international advisor to Banco Santander and… (cue drum roll) Goldman Sachs, already demonized cash (as opposed to digitalized bank credit) as a source of all crime and evil back in 2007, when he wrote the following in an El Pais article titled “The Great Advantage of a Cashless World”: “Without cash, we would live in a much safer, less violent world with enhanced social cohesion, since the major incentive fuelling all illegal activity [i.e. cash]… would disappear.”

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It’s the entire field. And they get away with it.

Deutsche Bank’s Record Fine Reveals Its Rotten Heart (Coppola)

Deutsche Bank has been issued with the largest fine of any bank for rigging international bank offer rates – what the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) calls “IBORs”. There are several of these rates: the best-known is Libor – “London Inter-Bank Offer Rate” – but there are also the EU’s Euribor, China’s Shibor and Japan’s Tibor. Deutsche Bank’s fine is specifically for the manipulation of Libor and Euribor. Libor and its siblings are commonly known as the rates at which banks lend to each other. But that is not their most important purpose. What is far more important is their role as benchmark rates for the pricing of all sorts of financial products. The NY Department of Financial Services has a useful summary:

The London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”) is a benchmark interest rate used in financial markets around the world. It is the primary benchmark for short term interest rates globally, written into standard derivative and loan documentation, used for a range of retail products, such as mortgages and student loans, and the basis for settlement of interest rate contracts on many of the world’s major futures and options exchanges. It is also used as a barometer to measure the health of the banking system and as a gauge of market expectation for future central bank interest rates.

For traders, a move of a few basis points in a Libor rate could make an enormous difference to their profits. The incentive for them to manipulate rates is obvious. Not that rate manipulation is solely the province of traders at investment banks. Until now, the largest fine issued by the FCA for benchmark rate rigging was issued to the UK retail bank Lloyds, which had the temerity not only to rig the Libor rate but also the repo rate used by the Bank of England to price emergency liquidity provided to, among others, Lloyds. The Guardian newspaper described this as “biting the hand that feeds it”. It is now clear that manipulating benchmark rates has been so widespread in the banking industry that it could be described as “the way we do things round here”. Eradicating this practice will require not just severe penalties, but a fundamental change in attitude.

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Nice little story.

World’s Coolest Economist Hot On His Numbers (NZ Herald)

Michael Pettis must be the world’s coolest economist. That’s a very uncool thing to say of course. He’d probably dispute it too. But it is hard to imagine a much cooler character than the casually dishevelled American who greets me at his hole-in-the-wall underground rock club, buried on an otherwise nondescript street in Beijing’s university district. There’s black paint falling off the walls, there are skateboards parked in the corner and the ashtrays are still full from the night before. If it wasn’t for the hip Chinese indie kids busily working around the place it might have been lifted up in its entirety from the New York post-punk scene and rebuilt in China like some crazy art installation.

In his day job Pettis is a finance professor at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University. He’s also a highly influential blogger and author when it comes to the Chinese economy. The club is a base for Maybe Mars, his independent record label, and the local avant garde music scene he is fostering. Broadly it’s art rock, he says. Think New York rockers Sonic Youth, a band which the 50-something Pettis – dressed today in black jeans, skater sneakers and unbuttoned business shirt – could easily pass for a member of. He grabs some Tsing Tao beers from behind the bar, we head up a claustrophobic stairway and grab a seat in his loft office where we talk some more about the peculiar administrative difficulties of trying to foster a music scene in Beijing.

“Do you like The Clean,” he asks, making the New Zealand connection via one of Dunedin’s legendary alternative rock acts. It turns out The Clean’s Hamish Kilgour has been producing for Carsick Cars, one of the hottest Beijing bands on Pettis’ label. You get the feeling he could talk all day about the music but of course that’s not what we are here for. We’re here because Pettis is considered one of the smartest and broadest thinkers in the world on the Chinese economic rebalancing act. Pettis is a rare breed in the world of academic finance and economics, he’s a Wall St veteran. Before moving to China in 2001, he was managing director and head of the liability management and Latin American capital markets groups at Bear Stearns. He has also run fixed income trading and capital market teams at CSFB and JPMorgan.

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“..a lot of presidents and prime minister told me later on that they had decided for themselves by then that Russia would cease to exist in its current form..”

Putin Says US Helped North Caucasus Militants In The 2000s (Guardian)

Intercepted calls showed that the US helped separatists in Russia’s North Caucasus in the 2000s, Russian president Vladimir Putin claimed in a new documentary in which he underscored his suspicions of the west. The two-hour documentary, to be aired on the state-owned Rossiya-1 TV channel later on Sunday, is dedicated to Putin’s 15 years in office. It focuses on Putin’s achievements as well as challenges to his rule – which the producers and Putin blame on western interference. Putin was elected Russian president on 26 March 2000, after spending three months as acting president, and was sworn in on 7 May 2000. The documentary shows Putin interviewed at the Kremlin in the dimly lit St Alexander’s Hall.

In excerpts released shortly before the film’s broadcast, Putin said Russian intelligence agencies had intercepted calls between the separatists and US intelligence based in Azerbaijan during the early 2000s, proving that Washington was helping the insurgents. He did not specify when the calls took place. Following a disastrous war in the 1990s, Russia fought Islamic insurgents in Chechnya and neighboring regions in the volatile North Caucasus. “They were actually helping them, even with transportation,” Putin said. Putin said he raised the issue with then-US President George W Bush, who promised Putin he would “kick the ass” of the intelligence officers in question.

But in the end, Putin said the Russian intelligence agency FSB received a letter from their “American counterparts” who asserted their right to “support all opposition forces in Russia”, including the Islamic separatists in the Caucasus. Putin also expressed his fears that the west wishes Russia harm as he recalled how some world leaders told him they would not mind Russia’s possible disintegration. “My counterparts, a lot of presidents and prime minister told me later on that they had decided for themselves by then that Russia would cease to exist in its current form,” he said, referring to the time period around the second conflict in the Caucasus. “The onl question was when it happens and what consequences would be.”

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“..Putin’s government provides more guaranteed support for the Jews than those in Europe and the US..”

Russian Jews Face ‘Grave Dangers’ If Putin Is Ousted, Warns Senior Rabbi (RT)

Russian Jews would be in serious danger if Russian President Vladimir Putin was ever ousted from power, a senior Russian rabbi has stated. He added, the current government guarantees the safety of Jewish people better than many Western powers do. “The Jews of Russia must realize the dangers inherent in the possible collapse of the Putin government, understand the rules of the game and be aware of the limitations,” the head of Russian Federation of Jewish Communities Aleksandr Boroda said at an annual Jewish learning event, which was organized by Limmud FSU. The conference, which saw around 1,400 participants attend, opened on Friday at the state-owned Klyasma resort in the Moscow region.

Boroda mentioned that Putin’s government provides more guaranteed support for the Jews than those in Europe and the US, adding that Russian religious institutions are better protected against anti-Semitism, while other countries don’t provide enough security. “In Russia, there is virtually unlimited freedom of religion and the Jewish community must ensure this situation continues,” Boroda said. “We do not have the privilege of losing what we have achieved and the support of the government for the community.” All Russian Jews, especially those who oppose Putin and his administration “must understand the grave dangers that they take upon themselves and the potential consequences,” he added.

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Let’s make this a wide campaign.

Chipotle Removes All GMO Ingredients From Menu (WSJ)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. said it has finished removing genetically modified ingredients from its foods, becoming the first major restaurant chain to do so amid growing U.S. consumer questions about the agricultural technology. Chipotle, which has 1,831 restaurants, has been working for more than two years to eliminate ingredients made with genetically modified organisms, or GMOs—corn, soybeans and other crops whose DNA is altered to achieve traits like pest-resistance. The company had said it hoped to be done by the end of 2014, but the transition “took a little longer than we thought,” a Chipotle spokesman said late Sunday.

The Food and Drug Administration has approved a number of genetically modified crops, which proponents, including many science groups, argue are safe. Critics claim they cause a variety of environmental ills and could be harmful to human health. The skepticism is part of a wider backlash in recent years among consumers seeking simpler, more natural ingredients. Chipotle in 2013 began telling consumers which of its menu items contained GMOs. Founder and co-Chief Executive Steve Ells has said Chipotle is making the move to avoid GMOs until the science around the technology is more definitive. The effort involved substituting a non-GMO sunflower oil for a genetically modified soybean oil it had been using, and sourcing non-GMO tortillas.

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But we don’t want to.

Forget The ‘War On Smuggling’, We Need To Be Helping Refugees (Guardian)

The crisis in the Mediterranean, which has led to more than 1,700 deaths already this year, has evoked an immediate response from European political leaders. Yet the EU response fundamentally and wilfully misunderstands the underlying causes. It has focused increasingly on tackling smuggling networks, reinforcing border control and deportation. Somehow European politicians have managed to turn a human tragedy into an opportunity to further reinforce migration control policies, rather than engage in meaningful international cooperation to address the real causes of the problem. The deaths in the Mediterranean have two main causes. First, the abolition in November 2014 of the successful Mare Nostrum search-and-rescue programme, which saved more than 100,000 lives last year, immediately led to a reduction in the number of rescues and an increase in the number of deaths.

Second, and most importantly, there is a global displacement crisis. We know that in last week’s tragedy – as with wider data on this year’s Mediterranean crossings – a growing proportion are coming from refugee-producing countries such as Syria, Eritrea and Somalia. These people are fleeing conflict and persecution. Of course, others are coming from relatively stable countries such as Senegal and Mali, but the majority now are almost certainly refugees. Around the world there are currently more displaced people than at any time since the second world war. More than 50 million people are refugees or internally displaced, and the current international refugee regime is being stretched to its absolute limits. For example, there are nine million displaced Syrians, of whom three million are refugees. The overwhelming majority are in neighbouring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

A quarter of Lebanon’s entire population is now made up of Syrian refugees. Yet the capacity of these states is limited. Faced with this influx, Jordan and Lebanon have closed their borders to new arrivals. But these people have to go somewhere to seek protection and, with few alternatives, increasing numbers are making the perilous journey across the Mediterranean to Europe. In this context, there are no easy solutions. Yet European politicians are taking the easy option of failing to understand the wider world of which Europe is a part. From early last week, Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, focused on proclaiming a “war on trafficking”. Politicians across Europe followed suit. Yet this fails to recognise that smuggling does not cause migration; it responds to an underlying demand. Criminalising the smugglers serves as a convenient scapegoat, but it cannot solve the problem. Rather like a “war on drugs”, it will simply displace the problem, increase prices, introduce ever less scrupulous market entrants and make the journey more perilous.

The proposals to emerge from last week’s emergency EU meetings in Luxembourg and Brussels have been similarly disappointing. They have focused on destroying the vessels of smugglers and committing to higher levels of rapid deportation, presumably to unstable and unsafe transit countries such as Libya. The humanitarian provisions of the plans have been vague and problematic. The EU has committed to triple funding for Operation Triton. Yet unlike the abolished Mare Nostrum, that operation has never had a search-and-rescue focus. As the head of the EU border agency, Frontex, has explained, it is primarily a border security operation with little capacity to save lives.

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Many of us wouldn’t have survived.

Five Billion People ‘Have No Access To Safe Surgery’ (BBC)

Two-thirds of the world’s population have no access to safe and affordable surgery, according to a new study in The Lancet – more than double the number in previous estimates. It means millions of people are dying from treatable conditions such as appendicitis and obstructed labour. Most live in low and middle-income countries. The study suggests that 93% of people in sub-Saharan Africa cannot obtain basic surgical care. Previous estimates have only looked at whether surgery was available. But this research has also considered whether people can travel to facilities within two hours, whether the procedure will be safe, and whether patients can actually afford the treatment.

One of the study’s authors, Andy Leather, director of the King’s Centre for Global Health, said the situation was outrageous. “People are dying and living with disabilities that could be avoided if they had good surgical treatment,” he said. “Also, more and more people are being pushed into poverty trying to access surgical care.” The study suggests a quarter of people who have an operation cannot in fact afford it. Twenty-five experts spent a year and a half gathering evidence and testimony, from healthcare workers and patients, from more than 100 different countries as part of this report.

They are now calling for a greater focus on, and investment in, surgical care. They say a third of all deaths in 2010 (16.9 million) were from conditions which were treatable with surgery. That was more than the number of deaths from HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined. The authors suggest the cost to the global economy of doing nothing will be more than $12 trillion between now and 2030.

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Apr 252015
 
 April 25, 2015  Posted by at 9:20 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  2 Responses »


Russell Lee South Side market, Chicago 1941

How The Stock Market Destroyed The Middle Class (MarketWatch)
The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Death of the Republic (Ellen Brown)
US Bridges Falling Down Get No Help From Record 2015 Muni Sale (Bloomberg)
Crash Boys (Michael Lewis)
Flash Crash Trader Sarao Is A ‘Hero’, Says Fund Manager (Telegraph)
Can The Hound Of Hounslow Really Be A Wolf Of Wall Street? (Telegraph)
Chances of Greek Deal ‘Virtually Nil’ (CNBC)
Greece’s Varoufakis Takes Hammering From Riled EU Ministers (Bloomberg)
The Greek Crisis Has A New Buzzword: Grimbo (CNBC)
Greece Said To Get Respite Until May 6 For Next IMF Payment (Bloomberg)
ECB Has Started Buying Covered Bonds With Negative Yields (Bloomberg)
China Bad Debt Spikes By More Than A Third (CNBC)
Sweden’s Debt Headache Grows More Painful as Court Blocks Curbs (Bloomberg)
Washington Started All Modern Military Conflicts – Russia’s General Staff (RT)
EU Allows Sale Of More GMO Food Crops (BBC)

“The ‘buyback corporation’ is in large part responsible for a national economy characterized by income inequality, employment instability, and diminished innovative capacity..”

How The Stock Market Destroyed The Middle Class (MarketWatch)

There’s something seriously wrong with an economy that nurtures a few billionaires but can’t sustain the middle class. Many factors have been blamed for the plummeting fortunes of the American middle class: globalization, technology, deregulation, easy credit, the winner-take-all economy, and even the inevitable tide of history. But one under-appreciated factor is a pervasive business model that encourages top managers of American corporations to loot their company for short-term gains, depriving those companies of the funds they need to build and enlarge, and invest in their workers for the long haul. How do they loot their company? By using large stock buybacks to manage the short-term objectives that trigger higher compensation for themselves.

By using those stock buybacks to manipulate the share price, which allows them to use inside information to time their own stock sales. By using buybacks to funnel most of the company’s profits back to shareholders (including themselves). They use the stock market to loot their companies. “The ‘buyback corporation’ is in large part responsible for a national economy characterized by income inequality, employment instability, and diminished innovative capacity,” wrote William Lazonick, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell in a new paper published by the Brookings Institution. Lazonick argues that corporations — which once retained a sizable share of profits to reinvest (including investing in their workforce by paying them enough to get them to stay) — have adopted a “downsize-and-distribute” model.

It’s not just lefty academics and pundits who think buybacks are ruining America. Last week, the CEOs of America’s 500 biggest companies received a letter from Lawrence Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, saying exactly the same thing. “The effects of the short-termist phenomenon are troubling both to those seeking to save for long-term goals such as retirement and for our broader economy,” Fink wrote, adding that favoring shareholders comes at the expense of investing in “innovation, skilled work forces or essential capital expenditures necessary to sustain long-term growth.”

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Somebody better challenge this as unconstitutional.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Death of the Republic (Ellen Brown)

“The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government.” — Article IV, Section 4, US Constitution A republican form of government is one in which power resides in elected officials representing the citizens, and government leaders exercise power according to the rule of law. In The Federalist Papers, James Madison defined a republic as “a government which derives all its powers directly or indirectly from the great body of the people . . . .” On April 22, 2015, the Senate Finance Committee approved a bill to fast-track the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a massive trade agreement that would override our republican form of government and hand judicial and legislative authority to a foreign three-person panel of corporate lawyers.

The secretive TPP is an agreement with Mexico, Canada, Japan, Singapore and seven other countries that affects 40% of global markets. Fast-track authority could now go to the full Senate for a vote as early as next week. Fast-track means Congress will be prohibited from amending the trade deal, which will be put to a simple up or down majority vote. Negotiating the TPP in secret and fast-tracking it through Congress is considered necessary to secure its passage, since if the public had time to review its onerous provisions, opposition would mount and defeat it. James Madison wrote in The Federalist Papers:

The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, . . . may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny. . . . “Were the power of judging joined with the legislative, the life and liberty of the subject would be exposed to arbitrary control, for the judge would then be the legislator. . . .”

And that, from what we now know of the TPP’s secret provisions, will be its dire effect. The most controversial provision of the TPP is the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) section, which strengthens existing ISDS procedures. ISDS first appeared in a bilateral trade agreement in 1959. According to The Economist, ISDS gives foreign firms a special right to apply to a secretive tribunal of highly paid corporate lawyers for compensation whenever the government passes a law to do things that hurt corporate profits — such things as discouraging smoking, protecting the environment or preventing a nuclear catastrophe. Arbitrators are paid $600-700 an hour, giving them little incentive to dismiss cases; and the secretive nature of the arbitration process and the lack of any requirement to consider precedent gives wide scope for creative judgments.

To date, the highest ISDS award has been for $2.3 billion to Occidental Oil Company against the government of Ecuador over its termination of an oil-concession contract, this although the termination was apparently legal. Still in arbitration is a demand by Vattenfall, a Swedish utility that operates two nuclear plants in Germany, for compensation of €3.7 billion ($4.7 billion) under the ISDS clause of a treaty on energy investments, after the German government decided to shut down its nuclear power industry following the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011.

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New new deal? Does the US need a Marshall Plan?

US Bridges Falling Down Get No Help From Record 2015 Muni Sale (Bloomberg)

The cheapest borrowing costs in five decades aren’t enough of an incentive for states and cities to address their crumbling bridges and roads. While municipalities have issued a record $130 billion of long-term, fixed-rate bonds this year, an unprecedented 70% of the deals have gone to refinance higher-cost debt, rather than fund capital expenditures, according to Bloomberg and Bank of America Merrill Lynch data. At about $40 billion, muni sales to finance projects are unchanged from the same period last year – even though the nation’s aging infrastructure has become a problem so dire and obvious that it was the subject of a feature by comedian John Oliver last month on HBO’s “Last Week Tonight.”

“Refunding has taken precedence over infrastructure financing,” said Phil Fischer, head of municipal research at Bank of America in New York. “It’s going to save state and local governments a lot on debt-service costs, and it’s going to help them catch up in terms of their pensions and other fixed obligations.” “That can’t go on forever,” he said. “Infrastructure projects are needed all over the country.” The country requires about $3.6 trillion of investment in infrastructure by 2020, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers. The group’s 2013 report gave the country a “D+” grade.

This year’s issuance mix shows state and local officials are reluctant to add debt even though the recession ended almost six years ago and yields on 20-year general obligations, at about 3.5%, are close to a generational low set in 2012. The $3.6 trillion municipal market shrank in 2014 for the fourth-straight year, the longest stretch of declines in Federal Reserve data going back to 1945. Municipalities often sell bonds that they can refinance after a set period, which is a windfall if interest rates decline. California lowered debt-service payments by about $180 million through a $1 billion refunding this week, according to the state treasurer’s office. Four of the five largest muni deals this year were for refinancing, including tobacco debt from California.

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Are the regulators going to claim incompetence?

Crash Boys (Michael Lewis)

The first question that arises from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s case against Navinder Singh Sarao is: Why did it take them five years to bring it? A guy living with his parents next to London’s Heathrow Airport enters a lot of big, phony orders to sell U.S. stock market futures; the market promptly collapses on May 6, 2010; it takes five years for the army of U.S. financial regulators to work out that there might be some connection between the two events. It makes no sense. A bunch of news reports have suggested that the CFTC didn’t have the information available to it to make the case. After the flash crash, the commission focused exclusively on trades that had occurred that day, rather than orders designed not to trade – at least until some mysterious whistle-blower came forward to explain how the futures market actually worked. But this can’t be true.

Immediately after the flash crash, Eric Hunsader, founder of the Chicago-based market data company Nanex, which has access to all stock and futures market orders, detected lots of socially dubious trading activity that May day: high-frequency trading firms sending 5,000 quotes per second in a single stock without ever intending to trade that stock, for instance. On June 18, 2010, Nanex published a report of its findings. The following Wednesday, June 23, the website Zero Hedge posted the Nanex report. Two days later the CFTC’s chief economist, Andrei Kirilenko, e-mailed Hunsader. “He invited me out to D.C. and I talked with everyone there (and I mean everyone – including a commissioner),” Hunsader says. “The CFTC then flew out a programmer to our offices where we showed him how to work with our data. Took all of a day. We sent him back with our flash crash data, and that was pretty much the last we heard about that project.”[..]

It would also be interesting to know how it occurred to Sarao that his trick might work. There’s a fabulous yet-to-be-told story here, about a smart kid in the U.K. who somehow figures out that the machines that execute the stock market trades of others might be gamed – and so he games them. One day while he is busy trying to trick the U.S. stock market into falling, the market collapses, more sensationally than it has ever collapsed. And instead of digging some hole in Hounslow in which he might hide for a decade or so, or fleeing to Anguilla, where he has squirreled away his profits, he stays in his parents’ home and keeps right on spoofing the U.S. stock market – and then is shocked when people turn up to accuse him of wrongdoing. He’s not some kind of exception to the standard operating procedure in finance. He’s a parody of it.

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“..a kid who is spoofing the market with a few thousand e-mini contracts and hence taken money from the front-running computers whose real goal is to rip you off.”

Flash Crash Trader Sarao Is A ‘Hero’, Says Fund Manager (Telegraph)

Navinder Singh Sarao has been hailed a “hero” who helps make financial markets “safe for ordinary investors” by a respected fund manager. Mr Sarao is accused of making bogus offers to trade on one of the world’s biggest financial markets, helping to bring about a market crash in 2010 from a house in Hounslow. He denies any wrongdoing. John Hempton, manager of Bronte Capital Management, said the trading methods allegedly used by Mr Sarao had actually helped to protect real investors and their clients. In a blog post, Mr Hempton said that it was “ludicrous” to say Mr Sarao could have brought about the crash through the trading of “a few thousand [futures] contracts”.

His comments echo those of former Barings trader Nick Leeson, who said that Mr Sarao may just be a scapegoat. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) does not directly blame Mr Sarao for the 2010 Flash Crash, but said that his “manipulative activities … contributed to market conditions that led to the flash crash”. The US watchdog listed “at least” 12 days on which Mr Sarao was using his “automated system”. However, there’s only been one flash crash. Mr Hempton said: “I probably will contribute to his [Mr Sarao’s] defence.” The Australian fund manager said that the so-called “spoofing” techniques employed by Mr Sarao helped to fend off high-frequency traders, which he claimed rip off “real investors”.

Many investors believe that spoofing, the practice of creating fake demand or supply in the market to influence prices, could be widespread. But Mr Hempton argued that the losers from this are “front running” high-frequency traders who attempt to capitalise from ordinary investors. High-frequency traders try to place their orders before conventional investors when they see their orders to make a profit. Mr Hempton said: “[Regulators] have arrested a kid who is spoofing the market with a few thousand e-mini contracts and hence taken money from the front-running computers whose real goal is to rip you off.”

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“Ultimately, there are two possibilities. Either Sarao’s role in the flash crash is being overstated and the real cause remains a mystery, or it is frighteningly easy to bring the world’s financial markets to its knees.”

Can The Hound Of Hounslow Really Be A Wolf Of Wall Street? (Telegraph)

You can almost hear the scriptwriters cracking their knuckles over their keyboards. The prospective film even has a catchy title. You’ve watched The Wolf of Wall Street, now meet The Hound of Hounslow. Want something pithier? How about Flash Crash? This story has everything, except (as far as we know) a love interest. A lone trader has been accused of illegally earning millions of pounds and bringing chaos to the world’s financial markets from a computer in his parents’ semi-detached home in Hounslow. US financial regulators claim that Navinder Singh Sarao’s actions contributed to the so-called “flash crash” in May 2010, when hundreds of billions of dollars were wiped off the value of stocks in a matter of minutes.

They believe Sarao may have made more than $40m (£27m) over the past five years, with nearly $900,000 on the day of the flash crash alone. The 36-year-old trader has been arrested on charges of fraud and market manipulation. If extradited to America and convicted, he will spend the better part of the rest of his life in a federal prison. For the US regulators, this is a story with a happy ending. They’ve been searching for answers to what caused the flash crash since it happened. Sarao’s arrest provides a neat denouement. But, for the rest of us, this week’s developments have raised more questions than answers. Art might benefit from ambiguity, but not financial regulation. Here are some of the many things we still don’t know.

How did Sarao contribute to the 2010 flash crash? First, we need to look at what Sarao was supposedly up to. The thing to realise is that traders have access to a huge amount of information. A company’s share price may be, say, $10. But traders can also see how many people are prepared to sell how many shares at $10.01 and $10.02 and so on, or how many people are prepared to buy how many shares at $9.99, $9.98 and so on. That’s because there are open orders in the market, which, in effect, say: “I’ll buy or sell shares in this company but only when the price hits X.” This is what is meant by the term “liquidity” – the sum total of all the different buy and sell orders at different prices in the market. It’s one of the ways that the market works out what something is worth.

But what if some of those orders aren’t what they seem? What if someone said they wanted to buy or sell stock but actually had no intention of doing so? The financial regulators claim Sarao flooded the market with fake sell orders (saying: “I’ll sell at x”, but systematically cancelling the orders as the price approached x). This convinced other market participants that the quoted price was too high and put downward pressure on the relevant securities. It’s called spoofing. The idea is to try to create small but predictable movements in the market from which you can make a little money lots of times. Most definitely not a lot of money once – that would (or should) attract the attention of regulators. Crashing the market would be the very opposite of what a spoofer would be aiming to do.

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Strong: “Our task is to convince our partners that our undertakings are strategic, rather than tactical, and that our logic is sound. Their task is to let go of an approach that has failed,..”

Chances of Greek Deal ‘Virtually Nil’ (CNBC)

Greece appeared no closer to a reforms-for-aid deal after the country’s finance minister met with his euro zone counterparts on Friday. After the talks, which took place in Latvia’s capital city of Riga, the president of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers issued a stark warning to Athens. “A comprehensive and detailed list of reforms is needed,” Jeroen Dijsselbloem, told reporters, according to Reuters. “A comprehensive deal is necessary before any disbursement can take place… We are all aware that time is running out.” According to Reuters, the discussion with Greece lasted little more than an hour, and Dijsselbloem warned that a remaining €7.2 billion in frozen funds would unavailable after June.

After the meeting, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis stated that Athens was willing to make compromises to reach a deal. Varoufakis added that “the cost of not having a solution would be huge for all of us, Greece and the euro zone,” according to Reuters. Finding a compromise between Greece and the bodies which have overseen its two bailouts—the IMF, ECB and European Commission—over required reforms is proving difficult, despite numerous meetings on the issue. Ahead of Friday’s meeting, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he did not believe there would be decisive progress on Greece in Riga, while his Austrian counterpart said he was “quite annoyed” with the lack of progress, Reuters reported.

Lenders want Greece to implement far-reaching pension and labor market reforms, as well as implement privatization programs and more cost-cutting measures. However, Greece’s leftwing government, which was elected in January in large part because of its opposition to austerity measures, is strongly resistant to doing so. Varoufakis said in in a regular blog post on Thursday that Greece’s partners needed to let go of an approach focused on austerity that had “failed.” “Our task is to convince our partners that our undertakings are strategic, rather than tactical, and that our logic is sound. Their task is to let go of an approach that has failed,” he wrote.

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And he does it with a smile.

Greece’s Varoufakis Takes Hammering From Riled EU Ministers (Bloomberg)

Euro-area finance ministers hurled abuse at Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis behind closed doors as they shut down his bid to find a shortcut to releasing financial aid. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch chairman of the euro-zone finance chiefs’ group, categorically ruled out making a partial aid payment in exchange for a narrower program of reforms after a stormy meeting in Riga, Latvia, in which Varoufakis was heavily criticized by his euro-area colleagues over his failure to deliver economic reforms. Euro-area finance chiefs said Varoufakis’s handling of the talks was irresponsible and accused him of being a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur, a person familiar with the conversations said, asking not to be named because the discussions were private.

“It was a very critical discussion and it showed a great sense of urgency around the room,” Dijsselbloem said at a press conference after the meeting. Asked if there was any chance of a partial disbursement, he said, “The answer can be very short: No.” Varoufakis said the two sides have come “much closer together” and Greece is aiming for a deal as soon as possible. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi added to the pressure on the Greek finance chief warning that policy makers may review the conditions of the emergency funding keeping his country’s banks afloat.

Euro-area governors will “carefully monitor” the haircuts imposed on Greek banks’ collateral when borrowing from the Bank of Greece, Draghi said, to take into account the “change in the environment.” “The higher are the yields, the bigger is the volatility, the more collateral gets destroyed,” he said. “Time is running out as the president of the Eurogroup said, and speed is of the essence.” The euro erased an advance against the dollar on the remarks. The single currency had gained earlier after Kathimerini newspaper reported that Greece secured €450 million from local authorities to boost government coffers.

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“Grexit in the next few months is not inconceivable, and it is certainly more likely if we consider Grimbo durations of a year or more..”

The Greek Crisis Has A New Buzzword: Grimbo (CNBC)

If you’ve been following the ongoing Greek solvency crisis, you have probably heard the terms “Grexit” – referring to Greece exiting the euro zone – and “Grexident” – if it accidentally leaves the bloc – being branded about. But now there’s a new term on the block to sum up the current impasse over reforms: a “Grimbo” – or Greece in limbo. The latest buzzword sums up the drawn-out negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors over its bailout program, which was extended by four months in February to give the country time to enact reforms. The word was coined by the same group of Citi economists – led by Chief Economist Willem Buiter – which thought up the now widely-used “Grexit” term in February 2012, when Greece leaving the euro zone first became a possibility.

In a note published this week, the term said “Grimbo” described a possible “drawn-out” process of negotiations between Greece and its lenders that could result in the country leaving the euro zone. “In our view, a last-minute agreement on a new program (and additional funding) without capital controls or a government default remains plausible. But it is similarly plausible that capital controls will be imposed in Greece or a government default takes place before an agreement is struck or that no agreement will be reached,” the economists said. If Greece did default on its debts and capital controls were issued, a Grexit would not necessarily be inevitable, the economists said. But they added that this could lead to a drawn-out process – a Greek limbo that could, if the gridlock persisted, lead to a Grexit. “Grexit in the next few months is not inconceivable, and it is certainly more likely if we consider Grimbo durations of a year or more,” Buiter and his colleagues remarked.

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That leaves May 9 open as a Grexit date, though it seems more likely that there’ll be more extend and pretend at the moment. Still, Athens must wonder what the use is of continuing on this path. And the election/referendum timing is a big one as well.

Greece Said To Get Respite Until May 6 For Next IMF Payment (Bloomberg)

The ECB prepares to debate on May 6 whether to make access to emergency cash for Greece’s banks more difficult if aid talks remain deadlocked, just as the cash-strapped country will be faced with yet another debt payment. While Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government struggles to pay pensions and salaries at the end of the month, Greece may get a brief respite in interest of about €201 million on its IMF loans due on May 1. As the deadline coincides with a holiday, followed by a weekend, the payment can be delayed until May 6, a person familiar with the matter said. The Fund will only send the payment notification on May 4, and Greece will have two days to make the payment, the person said.

The deadline for a principal repayment of about €766 million, which is due May 12, won’t change. The May 6 interest payment will be due on the same day that the ECB’s Governing Council will meet to discuss whether to extend funds from its Emergency Liquidity Assistance lifeline to Greek lenders. If the review of the country’s bailout remains stalled until then, euro area central bank governors may raise the haircut they apply on collateral they accept in exchange for the funds, which may eventually curb ELA access due to insufficient collateral, a separate person familiar with the matter said. Greek banks are being kept afloat thanks to €75.5 billion of ELA provision, subject to weekly review by the ECB. [..]

If talks over the disbursement of bailout funds reach a dead end, the government would consider the options of snap elections or a referendum, according to Greece’s deputy Prime Minister, Yannis Dragasakis. These alternatives are “at the back of our mind, as options to seek a solution, in case of deadlock” Dragasakis was cited as saying in an interview with To Vima newspaper, on April 19. A referendum on measures requested by creditors and euro membership looks to be the most likely way out of current impasse with a probability of 55%, Dimitris Drakopoulos and Lefteris Farmakis, analysts at Nomura said. If Greece were to act on one of these options, time is running short. The constitution dictates a minimum of three weeks after an election is called for the ballot to be held. This would mean that Tsipras would probably have to decide on this option by next week, or risk the country running out cash in the middle of the campaign trail.

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The absurdity intensifies.

ECB Has Started Buying Covered Bonds With Negative Yields (Bloomberg)

The European Central Bank started buying covered bonds with negative yields as its asset-purchase program reduces the supply of the highly rated debt, according to two people familiar with the matter. The central bank bought the debt in the past two weeks, said the people. The notes were from Germany, one of the people said. The ECB has bought €69.7 billion of covered bonds since October as part of its latest measures designed to stimulus growth in the euro area. The accumulation of assets is driving down yields and the central bank now holds about 15% of the market, according to ABN Amro.

“The ECB has caused this situation by being a big buyer and has exacerbated the already negative net supply of covered bonds,” said Joost Beaumont, a fixed-income strategist at ABN Amro in Amsterdam. “If the ECB buys more, yields will go still lower and that’s going to affect the ECB itself.” The ECB, which is also buying government bonds and asset-backed debt, has said it will buy negative-yielding securities up to its cash deposit rate of minus 0.2%. A negative yield means investors buying the securities now will get back less than they paid if they hold them to maturity. Investors are willing to hold the notes because of their relative safety and because they still offer higher rates than top-rated government bonds and the ECB’s deposit rate.

The central bank’s covered-bond purchase program is its third since the financial crisis and has prompted some of the biggest buyers of the notes from Union Investment to MEAG Munich to scale back holdings. Negative-yielding covered notes account for 20% of the €747.4 billion iBoxx Euro Covered Index, a benchmark used by investors in the debt, according to Credit Agricole. “Supply in positive yields is getting scarce and the ECB may have no other choice to fulfill its targeted purchase volume than to buy negative-yielding bonds,” said Tobias Meyer, an analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Hanover, Germany.

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Perhaps the biggest question concerning China: how does Beijing plan to eat all the bad debt?

China Bad Debt Spikes By More Than A Third (CNBC)

Chinese banks face a spike in bad loans amid slowing economic growth, PwC warns in a new report. “There are a variety of indications that credit risk exposure is accelerating,” said PwC China Banking and Capital Markets leader Jimmy Leung in a press release published on Thursday. Asset quality continues to worsen, while the average overdue loan period is constantly increasing, Leung said, noting there is growing pressure on overdue loans to be downgraded to the non-performing loan category. Slowing growth in the world’s second largest economy prompted the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to stimulate lending, but that has seen the quality of loans deteriorate.

China’s economy expanded at its slowest full-year pace in 24 years in 2014, undershooting the government’s target for the first time since 1998. The economy continued to lose momentum in the first quarter of 2015 with on-year growth marking its slowest pace in six years. The PBoC has undertaken easing measures to prevent the economy from slowing further. Most recently, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by 100 basis points on April 19 to stimulate lending – the second RRR cut in as many months. As the economy slows, the loan books at China’s 12 biggest listed banks are growing, but the quality of their loans appears to be deteriorating.

Banks’ combined loan balance grew 11.49% on-year in 2014 to 52.31 trillion yuan ($8.44 trillion), according to PwC. But NPL, or bad loans, rose at a much higher rate of 38.23% to 641.5 billion yuan, the report said. Loans that could turn bad increased at an even faster pace; overdue, but not NPL loans, jumped 112.65% on-year. “The banks need to get to grips with credit asset quality pressures,” said PwC’s Leung. At the same time, interest rate liberalization, the introduction of deposit insurance and the stock market rally “will affect the stability of [banks’] liabilities,” he said.

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Housing bubbles tend to bite.

Sweden’s Debt Headache Grows More Painful as Court Blocks Curbs (Bloomberg)

Sweden’s central bank abandoned its efforts to cool household debt growth and the financial regulator’s plan was killed by a court. That’s left the new government with the responsibility of coming up with an answer no matter how unpalatable it may be for voters. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Thursday there’s a need for broad talks in parliament to address Sweden’s household debt headache. Measures could include lowering tax deductions on interest payments, a step that’s likely to be unpopular with voters. So far, most politicians, including Andersson, are rejecting such a move even as the subsidy cost could almost double by 2019.

The government was left holding Sweden’s macroprudential hot potato after the Financial Supervisory Authority dropped a plan to force Swedes to pay down their home loans faster after a key court said the proposal could be illegal. “It’s central that we have talks with the right-wing parties, because we need stable conditions,” Andersson said in an interview after a speech in Stockholm. “It’s important that everyone takes responsibility in this area.” The watchdog said the government now needs to act. It’s seeking to protect the economy after household debt rose to a record as home prices surged over the past decade. It has previously capped mortgage lending at 85% of property values and raised bank capital requirements.

Its preference is for tools that affect households directly over using measures such as raising banks’ capital requirements, already among the world’s highest. It also doesn’t want to lower a cap introduced in 2010. “The government and parliament must give us a clearer mandate,” acting Director-General Martin Noreus said, backed up by both the central bank and debt office. “But the government and parliament can also deal with this in other ways, there are also other tools.” “The FSA still thinks the amortization requirement is relevant, but we also need to look at other alternatives,” including the mortgage deductions, Financial Markets Minister Per Bolund told reporters. “If changes are to be made to mortgage interest deduction, it needs to be done at a slow pace that households can handle.”

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Not something you’ll see written in the western press.

Washington Started All Modern Military Conflicts – Russia’s General Staff (RT)

The US is the sole initiator of all modern military conflicts, maintains Russia’s top brass, adding that Washington and its allies have used military force against third parties over 50 times in a matter of just one decade. The central focus of the American administration has been consistent containment of Russia to prevent alternative center of power emerging, said Lieutenant General Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Main Operation Directorate of Russia’s General Staff. In January, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the support that Washington provides to the Kiev authorities and Ukrainian army is aimed at “achieving the geopolitical goals of restraining Russia.” Now the US has deployed hundreds of military instructors to Ukraine to train troops.

Yet Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov accused Washington of sending its soldiers not to training ranges, “but directly in the combat zone near Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Artyomovsk and Volnovakha.” “The US appears to be the ultimate instigator of all military conflicts in the world. The Western countries have begun to hold themselves out as ‘architects’ of the international relations system, leaving to the US the role of the world’s only superpower,” Kartapolov said at a military-scientific conference dedicated to the 70th anniversary of Russia’s victory in WWII. In September 2014, RT reported that although the US has not declared war since 1942, Syria became the seventh country that Barack Obama, the holder of the Nobel Peace Prize, has bombed in the years of his presidency.

Since that recent campaign, US allies in the Persian Gulf, Sunni monarchies armed primarily with American-made weapons, launched a military offensive against Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, bombing out country’s military depots and infrastructure. Kartapolov stressed that this position of the west has been officially spelled out in the US national security strategy, presented to American Congress by Obama on February 6. The course being pursued by the White House is determined by strategic ambition to keep the leading geopolitical and economic positions, Kartapolov said.

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But the US is still ‘disappointed’.

EU Allows Sale Of More GMO Food Crops (BBC)

The EU has approved the sale of 17 more genetically modified crops – mostly used in animal feed – and two types of GM carnation. The European Commission’s authorisation process is controversial. The latest approvals were condemned by Green MEPs and Greenpeace environmentalists. 58 GM crops are already used in food and animal feed in the EU. But cultivation is restricted to just one – a type of maize. US biotech firms want the rules eased. The 17 new crop authorisations consist of: soybean (five types), cotton (seven types), maize (three types) and oilseed rape (two types). Cottonseed meal and oil is used in animal feed. GM crops are used widely in the US, South America and Asia, but many Europeans are wary of their impact on health and wildlife.

In the EU, 60% of animal feed is imported. The protein-rich soya in that feed comes overwhelmingly from countries that plant GM soybeans – Brazil, Argentina and the US, the Commission says. GM in food is one of the toughest issues at the EU-US talks on a free trade deal, known as TTIP. Green MEP Bart Staes, a food safety specialist, accused the Commission of ignoring widespread opposition to GMOs among EU citizens. “This gung-ho approach to GMOs also has to be seen in the context of the EU-US TTIP negotiations and the long-running US campaign to force their GMOs on to the EU market,” he said. On Wednesday, the Commission proposed a new law allowing individual EU countries to restrict or ban imported GM crops, even if those crops have been authorised EU-wide by the European Food Safety Authority (Efsa).

A country would have to justify its opt-out from a certain GM crop type, stating specific national or regional grounds for the restriction. Social or environmental impact could be cited as justification for a national ban, rather than purely health concerns. US Trade Representative Michael Froman said the proposal left the US “very disappointed” and he called it “hard to reconcile with the EU’s international obligations”. The only GM crop cultivated in the EU – Monsanto’s maize variety MON 810 – is banned in several EU countries. Spain is by far the biggest grower of MON 810 in Europe, but the crop accounts for just 1.56% of the EU’s total maize-growing area. The UK government is among several countries, including Spain and Sweden, calling for the EU’s GM rules to be eased. However, there is strong opposition in many other countries, including in Austria, France and Germany.

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Apr 182015
 
 April 18, 2015  Posted by at 10:06 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  7 Responses »


George N. Barnard Atlanta, Georgia. View on Marietta Street 1864

US Is ‘World Leader’ In Child Poverty (Alternet)
‘This Is Far From Over’, ‘We’re All Frogs In Boiling Water’ (Zero Hedge)
US Should Write Laws Of Global Economy, Not China – Obama (RT)
Greece’s Main Creditors Said to Be Unwilling to Allow Euro Exit (Bloomberg)
Let’s Face Reality, Greece Is Bankrupt: Marc Faber (CNBC)
Greek Crisis Comparable to Great Depression: Blanchflower (Bloomberg)
IMF’s Lagarde To Greece: Pay Us Or Else (Forbes)
Quarantine For Greek Bank Subsidiaries In Neighboring Countries (Kathimerini)
Obama Calls For Flexibility In Brief Exchange With Varoufakis (Kathimerini)
IMF Urges EU To Slim Down Its Demands On Greece (Guardian)
ECB Examines Possible Greek IOU Currency In Case Of Default (Reuters)
Greece’s Binary Outlook Gives Markets a Headache (WSJ)
New Zealanders Make More On Their Homes Than They Earn At Work (NZ Herald)
Rock-Star Economy Loiters At Rocky Road To Recession (NZ Herald)
NATO Activity Near Russian Borders Increased By 80% in 2014 (RT)
Hillary Clinton’s Fake Populism Is a Hit (Matt Taibbi)
Ben Bernanke Isn’t the Problem, the System Is (Atlantic)
EU -Under TTIP Pressure- Clears Path For 17 New GMO Foods (Guardian)
Dry Wells Plague California as Drought Has Water Tables Plunging (Bloomberg)
Global Temperature Records Just Got Crushed Again (Bloomberg)

Well done, America.

US Is ‘World Leader’ In Child Poverty (Alternet)

America’s wealth grew by 60% in the past six years, by over $30 trillion. In approximately the same time, the number of homeless children has also grown by 60%. Financier and CEO Peter Schiff said, “People don’t go hungry in a capitalist economy.” The 16 million kids on food stamps know what it’s like to go hungry. Perhaps, some in Congress would say, those children should be working. “There is no such thing as a free lunch,” insisted Georgia Representative Jack Kingston, even for schoolkids, who should be required to “sweep the floor of the cafeteria” (as they actually do at a charter school in Texas). The callousness of U.S. political and business leaders is disturbing, shocking. Hunger is just one of the problems of our children. Teacher Sonya Romero-Smith told about the two little homeless girls she adopted: “Getting rid of bedbugs, that took us a while. Night terrors, that took a little while. Hoarding food..”

America is a ‘Leader’ in Child Poverty The U.S. has one of the highest relative child poverty rates in the developed world. As UNICEF reports, “[Children’s] material well-being is highest in the Netherlands and in the four Nordic countries and lowest in Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and the United States.” Over half of public school students are poor enough to qualify for lunch subsidies, and almost half of black children under the age of six are living in poverty.

$5 a Day for Food, But Congress Thought it was Too Much. Nearly half of all food stamp recipients are children, and they averaged about $5 a day for their meals before the 2014 farm bill cut $8.6 billion (over the next ten years) from the food stamp program. In 2007 about 12 of every 100 kids were on food stamps. Today it’s 20 of every 100.

For Every 2 Homeless Children in 2006, There Are Now 3 On a typical frigid night in January, 138,000 children, according to the U.S. Department of Housing, were without a place to call home. That’s about the same number of households that have each increased their wealth by $10 million per year since the recession.

The US: Near the Bottom in Education, and Sinking The U.S. ranks near the bottom of the developed world in the percentage of 4-year-olds in early childhood education. Early education should be a primary goal for the future, as numerous studies have shown that pre-school helps all children to achieve more and earn more through adulthood, with the most disadvantaged benefiting the most. But we’re going in the opposite direction. Head Start was recently hit with the worst cutbacks in its history.

Children’s Rights? Not in the U.S. It’s hard to comprehend the thinking of people who cut funding for homeless and hungry children. It may be delusion about trickle-down, it may be indifference to poverty, it may be resentment toward people unable to “make it on their own.” The indifference and resentment and disdain for society reach around the globe. Only two nations still refuse to ratify the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child: South Sudan and the United States. When President Obama said, “I believe America is exceptional,” he was close to the truth, in a way he and his wealthy friends would never admit.

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Hunt’s a smart dude.

‘This Is Far From Over’, ‘We’re All Frogs In Boiling Water’ (Zero Hedge)

Global debt has expanded by $35 trillion since the credit crisis and as Lacy Hunt exclaims, “that’s a net negative, debt is an increase in current consumption in exchange for a decline in future spending and we are not going to solve this problem by taking on more and more debt.” Santelli notes that debt will actually keep growth “squashed down” and points out the low rates in Europe questioning the ability of The ECB’s actions to save the economy which Hunt confirms as “longer-term rates are excellent economic indicators” and that is not a good sign for Europe. “This process is far from over,” Hunt concludes, “rates will move irregularly lower and will remain depressed for several years.” Santelli sums up perfectly, “we’re all frogs in boiling water,” as we await the consequences of central planning.

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“The laws of the global economy should be written by the United States and not by the likes of China..”

US Should Write Laws Of Global Economy, Not China – Obama (RT)

The laws of the global economy should be written by the United States and not by the likes of China according to President Obama, as concern over China’s influence is growing. Washington hopes a Pacific free trade pact will curb Beijing’s investment bank. “When 95% of our potential customers live abroad, we must be sure that we are writing the rules for the global economy, not a country like China,” Obama said in his special message to Congress on Thursday, RIA reports. The statement comes after an agreement by US lawmakers to fast-track international trade bills earlier on Thursday. The White House is now looking forward to completing the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement this year to remove trade barriers between the participating nations which account for 40% of the global economy and more than a third of global trade.

“Our exports support more than eleven million jobs, and we know that exporting companies pay higher wages than others. Today we have the opportunity to open even more new markets to goods and services backed by three proud words: Made in America,” Obama added. Meanwhile, the US and Japan are the largest economies in the 12 Pacific nations bloc and view it as a strategic economic partnership. The two countries have been voicing concerns over China’s increasing influence in Asia and did not join the Chinese Investment bank (AIIB). The AIIB is expected to challenge the Washington-based World Bank and rival Japan’s Asian Development Bank. It currently has 57 countries from 5 continents as founding members including the biggest European nations. International trade and investment institutions are the latest contest issues between Beijing and the Washington-Tokyo alliance for influence in Asia.

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They want to keep them aboard as feudal servants?!

Greece’s Main Creditors Said to Be Unwilling to Allow Euro Exit (Bloomberg)

Greece’s major creditors are not ready to let the country drop out of the euro as long as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shows willingness to meet at least some key demands, according to two people familiar with the discussions. Chancellor Angela Merkel will go a long way to prevent a Greek exit from the single currency, though only so far, one of the people said. Every possibility is being considered in Berlin to pull Greece back from the brink and keep it in the 19-nation euro, the person said. For all the foot-dragging in Athens, some creditors are willing to show Greece more flexibility in negotiations over its finances to prevent a euro exit, the second person said. The red line is that the Syriza-led government shows readiness to commit to at least some economic reform measures, said both people, who asked not to be named discussing strategy.

“Our view is that Greece is not going to exit the euro,” Stephen Macklow-Smith at JPMorgan Asset Management in London, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Friday. While both sides have “very entrenched positions” in the negotiations, “if you look at the way the euro-zone crisis has developed, in every case what you’ve seen is in return for firm action you get concessions.” The brinkmanship has sent Greek government bonds heading toward their worst week since Tsipras’s election in January at the head of an anti-austerity coalition. While the public rhetoric has escalated amid a standoff over releasing the last tranche of aid, creditors are willing to cut Greece some slack, the second person said.

Euro-area finance ministers are next due to discuss progress on Greece at their meeting on April 24 in the Latvian capital, Riga. Greece’s government remains confident an interim agreement with its creditors allowing disbursement of bailout funds can be reached by the end of April, a Greek official told reporters in Athens on Friday. “We’re of the view that Greece will hold to the commitments it made to the institutions,” Georg Streiter, Merkel’s deputy spokesman, said when asked about the chancellor’s stance. A deal won’t be ready by April 24 and could come together in the following weeks, Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters in Washington. “I don’t believe in this game-of-chicken rubbish,” Dijsselbloem said. “We don’t know what the risks are.”

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“If they don’t want to pay what are you going to do, invade and hang them all up?”

Let’s Face Reality, Greece Is Bankrupt: Marc Faber (CNBC)

Greece is bankrupt and should default, well-known investor Marc Faber told CNBC Friday, arguing that a “geopolitical game of chess” was being played out in the region. The comments by Faber, the editor of the “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” came at a time of heightened tensions between Greece and its international creditors. The organizations overseeing the country’s two international bailouts – worth a combined €240 billion – have said the country will not receive a last tranche of aid, worth 7.2 billion euros, until it makes far-reaching reforms. But Faber, a bearish investor known as “Dr. Doom,” said the country’s fiscal situation was unsalvageable. “Even if Greece grows at 10%per annum for the next ten years, it will not be able to pay its debts back,” he told CNBC.

“It’s bankrupt. We better face the reality and not kick the can the can down the road. Greece should default.” Faber said that while Greece could leave the euro zone and adopt a parallel currency, there that geopolitics were coming in to play and there was no appetite in Europe to let the country exit from the single currency bloc. “I personally think it’s not so much of an economic issue as a political issue,” he told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box.” “Europe, and in particular NATO and the U.S. do not want Greece to leave (the euro zone) because if they do, other people are going to knock on Greece’s door – like the Russians or the Chinese maybe. It’s very much a geopolitical game of chess that’s being played.” Greece and its creditors disagree on which reforms should be implemented, however, and as such the much-needed aid remains under lock and key.

T his has prompted speculation that the country could soon run out of money and default on its forthcoming debt repayments to the IMF and ECB, which could, in turn, result in the country leaving the euro zone. Greece denies this is the case and ECB President Mario Draghi said earlier this week that he has not even considered a default. On Friday, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis will meet Draghi and IMF officials in Washington. The ECB stands to lose a lot if Greece does default, Faber argued, and thus Greece was in strong position to negotiate better terms for its bailout program and debt repayments. “I think that the ECB and European banks will have to take huge losses on their loans to Greece and bond purchases they have made (if it defaults),” he said. “I think Greece is in a very strong negotiating position. If they don’t want to pay what are you going to do, invade and hang them all up?”

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Blanchflower can’t stop laughing about the whole thing.

Greek Crisis Comparable to Great Depression: Blanchflower (Bloomberg)

Dartmouth College’s Danny Blanchflower discusses the Greek debt crisis with Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox on “Taking Stock.”

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“We’re not actually in a rules based world here, we’re in a politically determined one. If the other eurozone members think that keeping Greece solvent , in the euro and functioning is sufficiently important then they will do that.”

IMF’s Lagarde To Greece: Pay Us Or Else (Forbes)

It’s long been true that welshing on debts to the IMF is just something that a civilised country just doesn t do. Thus there’s little surprise when Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, points out to Greece that there’s really no mileage in that country thinking about not paying the IMF back the money it s owed. Because, you know, that s just not something that civilised countries do. There is however a sting in the tail here. For there’s no formal method of dunning a country that does fail to repay the IMF on time. It takes at least a month after the payment doesn t appear for the IMF to go through its own internal reporting processes and then another couple of weeks for it to declare actual default.

And there’s politics in there as well: they can, quite happily, say that, well, they re trying to pay, they ve paid a bit perhaps, so we ll not actually say that they are in default. The point being that the rules aren’t hard and fast. What really matters is what other people think of a skipped IMF payment and here it’s the ECB that is most important. Here’s Lagarde:

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned that she wouldn’t let Greece skip a debt payment to the lender, shutting down a potential avenue to buy the Greek government some financial leeway. We never had an advanced economy actually asking for that kind of thing, delayed payment, Lagarde said in an interview Thursday in Washington with Bloomberg Television. And I very much hope that this is not the case with Greece. I would certainly, for myself, not support it.

It’s almost ritualistic, her saying that of course. But that it has been said does bind in a way future actions. Having gone public with said statement then the IMF can’t really turn around and say Well, it doesn’t matter if Greece is late with a payment.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, said the IMF is worried about the liquidity situation in Greece but made it clear that the institution would not give the country any leeway on ¨ 1bn of debt repayments coming due in early May.

This is almost like the Kremlinology of old of course, looking for the runes in such remarks, but by the standards of these things it’s a fairly firm statement. But it’s really the ECB that matters here. Assume that Greece did delay the IMF payment (as one minister has said they would, if faced with a choice of paying the bank or paying the country s pensions). Not a great deal would happen immediately as a direct result. What would actually matter is what the ECB did:

With Greek sovereign yields blowing wider on Thursday (and pretty much staying there), it s worth revisiting what exactly might happen if, say, May 1 arrives and Greece fails to pay the €200m due to the IMF that day. Received wisdom has it that the ECB will withdraw the ELA emergency liquidity assistance currently propping up the Greek banking system, which will promptly collapse; Tsipras and Co would then be forced to bring back the Drachma (or similar) and Greece would exit the eurozone. But what do the rules here say?

Well, actually, the rules are written in such a flaccid manner that the ECB could do anything it liked. They could conclude that it’s temporary, no biggie, and keep supporting the Greek banks. Or they could conclude that it’s not, it is a biggie, and close them down and thus force default and Grexit. But the point is that a putative default to the IMF doesn’t really change that situation. Because the rules are sufficiently flaccid that pretty much anything can be interpreted as being a reason to withdraw EULA support: or nothing. We’re not actually in a rules based world here, we re in a politically determined one. If the other eurozone members think that keeping Greece solvent , in the euro and functioning is sufficiently important then they will do that. If they don’t they won’t: there’s really no rules here that can insist that they go either way.

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“This quarantine was deemed necessary after the aggressive rhetoric of the new Greek government..”

Quarantine For Greek Bank Subsidiaries In Neighboring Countries (Kathimerini)

Neighboring countries have effectively quarantined Greece in a bid to minimize the consequences on their credit systems in case of a Greek “accident.” Kathimerini understands that the central banks of Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania, Serbia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia have all forced the subsidiaries of Greek banks operating in those countries to bring their exposure to Greek risk (bonds, treasury bills, deposits to Greek banks, loans etc.) down to zero in order to shield themselves and minimize the danger of contagion in case the negotiations between the Greek government and the eurozone do not bear fruit. This quarantine was deemed necessary after the aggressive rhetoric of the new Greek government – particularly in the first few weeks after the election – regarding a debt restructuring, the non-completion of the creditors’ assessment and so on.

Special care was taken for the subsidiaries of Greek lenders, which have a major presence in neighboring states, to make sure that they would not proceed to new positions in Greek bonds, T-bills, deposits in Greek banks or interbank funding. The Greek government recently put press pressure on banks to think how they could get around the ECB’s ban on the acquisition of more T-bills. Another concern for local bank groups is the threat of a reduction in the Greek element of their subsidiaries in neighboring countries in case of turmoil in Greece. Don’t forget that the Cypriot-owned bank branches in Greece changed hands virtually overnight in March 2013 during the Cyprus bank bail-in process.

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“But we are not going to end up ‘being’ compromised. This not what we were elected for.”

Obama Calls For Flexibility In Brief Exchange With Varoufakis (Kathimerini)

US President Barack Obama spoke with Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis on the sidelines of an event at the White House honoring Greece’s Independence Day with the former stressing the need for flexibility from all sides in ongoing reform negotiations between Greece and its creditors, according to sources. The conversation between Obama and Varoufakis lasted for around 12 minutes, according to sources who said Varoufakis asked Obama to keep pressing European leaders so that a solution is found to Greece’s problem. Varoufakis agreed with Obama that all sides need to show flexibility and also highlighted the need to remain focused on the goal and on the process that Greece is involved in with its creditors. The event at the White House was also attended by US Vice President Joe Biden and Greek Archbishop Demetrios.

Varoufakis is to meet on Friday with US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew at 10.30 p.m. Greek time following a scheduled meeting at 6 p.m. with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. On Thursday, in a speech at the Brookings Institution, Varoufakis underlined the difficulties in Greek negotiations with its creditors but said Greece was more keen than anyone for a deal to be reached. Nevertheless, Greece will not approve more austerity, he said. “We will not sign up to targets we know our economy cannot meet by means of policies that our partners should not wish to impose,” he said. “We will compromise, we will compromise and we will compromise in order to come to a speedy agreement. But we are not going to end up ‘being’ compromised. This not what we were elected for.”

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“..the reforms being demanded from Athens in exchange for a vital €7.2bn in rescue funds should be simplified and slimmed down.”

IMF Urges EU To Slim Down Its Demands On Greece (Guardian)

The IMF has urged EU negotiators to slim down their list of demands in debt talks with Greece amid fears that time is running out to reach a deal. The intervention by one of the country’s three main lenders came as the UK chancellor, George Osborne, said the impasse posed the biggest immediate threat to the global economy. Poul Thomsen, head of the IMF’s European department, said the reforms being demanded from Athens in exchange for a vital €7.2bn (£5.2bn) in rescue funds should be simplified and slimmed down. European finance ministers and senior officials have warned that Greece is running out of time to secure the payment and avert a disorderly exit from the eurozone. Osborne said the situation in Greece was “the most worrying for the global economy”.

Speaking at the IMF’s spring meeting in Washington,he said discussions about Greece had “pervaded every meeting” and that “the mood is notably more gloomy than at the last international gathering”. He added: “It’s clear now to me that a misstep or a miscalculation on either side could easily return European economies to the kind of perilous situation we saw three to four years ago.” Osborne’s German counterpart, Wolfgang Schäuble, repeated his criticism of the radical left Syriza government’s negotiating tactics and warned that it was harming the economy. He said Greece was in a “very difficult situation” after Syriza demanded a new deal with its creditors – the IMF, the EU and the ECB – which had delayed reforms and hit the country’s already struggling economy.

Schäuble said it was unlikely that next week’s deadline for Athens to submit reform proposals would be met. The reforms are scheduled to be discussed at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Riga, Latvia next Friday, followed by a further gathering in Brussels on 11 May that is being seen as the crunch point for Athens. Greece is scheduled to make a €747m repayment to the IMF on 12 May and there are fears that Athens will be unable to meet the deadline as cash runs out of state and domestic bank coffers.

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“..the so-called adverse scenarios group.”

ECB Examines Possible Greek IOU Currency In Case Of Default (Reuters)

The ECB has analysed a scenario in which Greece runs out of money and starts paying civil servants with IOUs, creating a virtual second currency within the euro bloc, people with knowledge of the exercise told Reuters. Greece is close to having to repay the IMF about €1 billion in May and officials at the ECB are growing concerned. Although the Greek government has repeatedly said that it wants to honour its debts, officials at the ECB are considering the possibility that it may not, in work undertaken by the so-called adverse scenarios group. Any default by Greece would force the ECB to act and possibly restrict Greek banks’ crucial access to emergency liquidity funding.

Officials fear however that such action could push cash-strapped Athens into paying civil servants in IOUs in order to avoid using up scarce euros. “The fact is we are not seeing any progress… So we have to look at these scenarios,” said one person with knowledge of the matter. A spokesman for the ECB said it “does not engage in speculation about how specific scenarios regarding Greece could unfold.” One Greek government official, who declined to be named, said there was no need to examine such a scenario because Athens was optimistic it would reach a deal with its international lenders by the end of the month. Greece has dismissed a recent report suggesting it would need to tap all its remaining cash reserves across the public sector, a total of €2 billion, to pay civil service wages and pensions at the end of the month.

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“But if Greece leaves, all bets are off.”

Greece’s Binary Outlook Gives Markets a Headache (WSJ)

The conundrum that Greece presents for most investors is simple, but troubling. It is either mostly irrelevant, or one of the biggest threats to markets this year. The war of words over Greece and its attempts to strike a deal with its partners in recent days has deepened. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble warned that time was “running out” for Greece to strike an accord over its bailout program. European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said talks were nowhere near the point where money could be disbursed. And IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Thursday advised Greece to “get on” with fixing the economy. Greece has so far kept up with debt service, and retained access to very short-term market funding. But some very chunky payments come due in the summer months.

Standard & Poor’s this week cut Greece’s rating to triple-C-plus, warning that without deep reforms or further relief, Greece’s obligations would become unsustainable. Fears of a eurozone exit are building again. Financial markets are beginning to feel the jitters. Thursday, Greek bonds fell sharply, with two-year yields rising above 26%. Yields on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds rose, widening the gap with Northern Europe. German bond yields fell to record lows, partly due to the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program, but partly due to nerves about Greece. As long as Greece stays in the eurozone, most investors can afford to pay it little attention. It accounts for just 1.8% of the currency bloc’s economic output.

The lowly rating on Greece’s bonds means they are off-limits for most funds; the volatility of Greek stocks will have deterred others from dipping into the market. The bigger factors affecting markets have been the ECB’s actions, the pickup in eurozone economic data, and the moves in currency markets. But if Greece leaves, all bets are off. The initial impact is probably containable, again due to Greece’s relatively small size economically. The ECB’s bond-purchase program should help stem financial-market contagion. But the second-round effects and political fallout are unknowable. UBS’s economists, for instance, warn that the apparent lack of bond-market concern over Greece is an unreliable indicator of calm; they argue that the real risk would come from bank runs in other highly-indebted countries. Undoubtedly, the remaining members of the eurozone would seek to circle the wagons and declare Greece unique once more, but the credibility of that effort might fall short.

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How to destroy an economy. “God help New Zealand.”

New Zealanders Make More On Their Homes Than They Earn At Work (NZ Herald)

A three-bedroom North Shore “do-up” has earned its owner nearly $1000 a day – just shy of the salary of a High Court judge – in Auckland’s red-hot property market. A Weekend Herald investigation into soaring house prices comes amid warnings from the Reserve Bank about the housing market and calls for immediate action by the country’s chief human rights watchdog. Stuart Duncan sold his 1982 fibre-cement home at 116 Oaktree Ave in Browns Bay in November 2013 for $751,000. Now the new owners have on-sold for $1,205,000 – despite doing little work on the property – giving them a 16-month profit of $454,000 – about $940 a day. “I’m still in shock,” Mr Duncan said after learning how much his old property fetched. “It’s just disbelief. “It was an 80s house, three-bedroom do-up. Where is the market going? God help New Zealand.”

The Weekend Herald has analysed annual house sale figures and compared them to wages earned in the country’s 12 regional council areas to calculate whether people’s homes are earning them more than they get from working. In Auckland, the average house earned nearly $230 a day in the past year – about twice the average worker’s pay. That’s about the same as an entry-level doctor or high school head of department with responsibility for 10 teaching staff. The one-bathroom Browns Bay property has a CV of just $800,000 and comes with a garage and carport. It sits on 1043sq m freehold and is zoned for Rangitoto College. Barfoot & Thompson agent Eve Huang said though the vendors had done little work on the property, they had obtained resource consent for the large section to be subdivided into two lots, which increased its value.

Mr Duncan said he couldn’t believe how the market had taken off, and blamed foreign buyers with deep pockets for what was fast becoming a housing crisis. “Every auction you go to, if they want it they just don’t give up. It’s a bottomless pit. It just doesn’t seem right. We’re going to end up with a generation that don’t own property.”

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An economy on the verge of implosion. How can these people not have learned from the US et al? They do have TV and papers here after all. Oh, wait, that is the very problem..

Rock-Star Economy Loiters At Rocky Road To Recession (NZ Herald)

A much-anticipated return to surplus somehow metamorphoses into yet another unwelcome deficit; dairy prices slump ever lower; the New Zealand dollar keeps rising ever higher; the overheated Auckland property market makes the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s look like an exercise in financial probity. Is this the so-called rock-star economy? Or the rocky road to recession? It is not raining on John Key and his colleagues. It is pouring. Still smarting at the mass defection of erstwhile supporters which the party took for granted in the Northland byelection, National is currently exhibiting the self-absorbed demeanour of someone who cannot quite work out what is happening to himself or herself and is not sure what to do about it.

Not that National can do much anyway to halt the rise in the currency or stimulate the international milk market. In the past week the Prime Minister and his Finance Minister have also appeared to accept they will fail to meet their long-established target date this year for a resumption of Budget surpluses. As for Auckland house prices, well, the warning from the Reserve Bank on Wednesday of a potential downward, disruptive correction in prices could not have been blunter. The Reserve Bank’s worry is that the trading banks, which have 60% of their lending in residential mortgages, could find themselves in dire straits such that credit dries up with the result that the economy goes into a severe downturn.

Key’s response was literally “crisis, what crisis?” But that hellish scenario ought to chill Key and Bill English to the bone. But the Reserve Bank has not stopped there. It is strongly urging the Government to give “fresh consideration” to ways and means of shutting property speculators attracted by untaxed capital gains out of the Auckland market. Key’s difficulty is that he has long ruled out a capital gains tax. His one consolation is that Labour leader Andrew Little has effectively done likewise. But Little is not in Government. Key is.

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We need to stop our own war mongerers, not someone else’s.

NATO Activity Near Russian Borders Increased By 80% in 2014 (RT)

There was a sharp increase the intensity of the training of NATO troops near the borders of Russia last year, Russian General Staff said. “In 2014, the intensity of NATO’s operational and combat training activities has grown by 80%,” Lieutenant General Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Main Operation Directorate of General Staff. The leadership of NATO made no effort to hide the clear anti-Russian orientation of these activities, he added. “During this period, NATO created a grouping of its member states’ forces in the Baltic States, consisting of over 10,000 troops, about 1,500 armored vehicles, 80 planes and helicopters and 50 warships,” Kartapolov said during the IV Moscow Conference on International Security.

According to the Lieutenant General, strategic bombers from the US Air Force were used to perform strategic tasks during those exercises. He also said that the US plans to supply its Eastern European allies with JASSM-ER long-range aviation cruise missiles, which will enable NATO warplanes to hit targets 1,300 kilometers inside the Russian territory. “In the case of a military conflict, critical facilities on the territory of almost the entire European part of Russia will be vulnerable to NATO’s air attack, with the flight time of the missiles reduced by half,” Kartapolov warned.

The General Staff official also spoke about increased intelligence activity by NATO in the Black Sea. He said that US Global Hawk drones were spotted in Ukrainian air space in March, with the UAVs increasing “the depth of reconnaissance on the territory of Russia by 250-300 kilometers.” Since Russia’s reunion with Crimea and the start of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine last spring, NATO forces have stepped up military exercises along the Russian border – in the Baltic States and Eastern Europe.

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I know, I said no more Hillary, but I’ll make an exception for Taibbi.

Hillary Clinton’s Fake Populism Is a Hit (Matt Taibbi)

Hillary Clinton ran onto the playing field this week, Rock and Roll Part 2 blaring in the background, and started lying within minutes of announcing her entry into the presidential election campaign. “There’s something wrong,” she told a crowd of Iowans, “when hedge fund managers pay lower taxes than nurses or the truckers I saw on I-80 when I was driving here over the last two days.” Oh, right, that. The infamous carried interest tax break, the one that allows private equity vampires like Mitt Romney and Stephen Schwartzman to pay a top tax rate of 15% while all of the rest of us (including the truckers Hillary “saw” – note she didn’t say “hung out with Bill and me over chilled shrimp at the Water Club”) pay income taxes.

The carried interest loophole is an absurd, completely unjustifiable handout to the not merely well-off but filthy rich, and it’s been law in this country for about three decades. Raise your hand if you really think that Hillary Clinton is going to repeal the carried interest tax break. We’ll come back to that in a minute. In the meantime, the reaction to Hillary’s campaign announcement went exactly according to script. Newspapers and news sites ever-so-slightly raised figurative eyebrows at the tone of Hillary’s announcement, remarking upon its “populist” flair. This is no plutocrat who plans to ride to the White House upon a historically massive assload of corporate money, the papers declared, this is a candidate of the people!

“Hillary’s Return: Her Folksy, Populist Re-Entry,” proclaimed Politico. “Populist Theme, Convivial In Tone!” headlined the Los Angeles Times. “Hillary Lifts Populist Spirits,” commented The Hill, hook visibly protruding from its reportorial fish-mouth. Having watched this campaign-reporting process from both the inside and the outside for a long time now, I knew what was coming after the initial wave of “Hillary the Populist!” stories. In presidential politics, every time a candidate on either the left or the right veers in a populist direction – usually with immediate success, since the American populace is ready to run through a wall for anyone who makes the obvious observation that they’re being screwed by someone up above – it takes about two or three days before the “Let’s let cooler heads prevail!” editorials start trickling in.

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As I said this week, they want the Bernank not for what he knows, but who he knows: “..it’s fairly clear that what Citadel wants is inside information..”

Ben Bernanke Isn’t the Problem, the System Is (Atlantic)

So Ben Bernanke wants to make a buck. Who can blame him? The guy is one of the most esteemed economists of his generation. He served his country admirably; his term as chairman of the Federal Reserve was probably the single most stressful term in that role in history. He resigned from his tenured professorship at Princeton when he joined the Fed board. What else is the guy going to do? This is, of course, how systemic problems work—few individual cases are obviously unacceptable, but the whole is horrifying. In this case, it’s the “revolving door” of movement between government positions and the financial sector—that is to say, from modestly paying positions in the public sector, overseeing financial firms, to higher-paying jobs in the private sector.

Bernanke is going to work for Citadel, a $25 billion hedge fund that is one of the country’s largest. While Bernanke is a talented economist, he has also never worked in the industry, so it’s fairly clear that what Citadel wants is inside information—either things he knows because he remains close with people in positions of authority, or his insight into ongoing negotiations. That’s why he’s been in high demand by financial-industry powers ever since stepping down last February. For example, The New York Times noted that he analyzed the Fed’s true feelings about inflation at a dinner with hedge funders in Las Vegas—allowing several to make profitable moves. Another lamented that he didn’t pay closer attention: “He gave this stuff out, but I didn’t realize what he was saying at the time, so I didn’t do a great trade.”

Quantifying the revolving door is difficult—it involves a series of subjective choices about what constitutes the revolving door, what level of employees should be counted, and so on. (One study from Notre Dame found a double-digit increase between 2001 and 2013.) But there’s ample anecdotal evidence. In fact, Bernanke isn’t even the first Federal Reserve alum to jump to a hedge fund in the last month. Jeremy Stein, a former governor, was hired by BlueMountain Capital Management in late March. And as Rob Copeland notes, this is just the latest in a stream of prominent government officials: Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and ex-Reagan economic adviser Martin Feldstein accepted paid roles on a now-disbanded economic advisory board at John Paulson’s hedge-fund firm that started in 2008.

More recently, former Obama administration chief of staff William Daley joined Swiss hedge fund Argentiere Capital, while former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and former CIA chief David Petraeus took posts at private-equity firms Warburg Pincus and KKR, respectively. And just this week, former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick was introduced as a new managing director at Bain Capital. That doesn’t even include non-hedge-fund and private-equity moves. Peter Orszag, who led President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget, took a job with Citigroup when he left. The Obama administration had been closely involved with Citi in the aftermath of the financial collapse, and the bank received nearly $500 billion in bailouts.

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Nobody wants GMO, nobody wants the TTIP. So what do we get? And have we forgotten how long DDT was considered safe? Declaring GMO safe is not science. Wait a hundred years.

EU -Under TTIP Pressure- Clears Path For 17 New GMO Foods (Guardian)

Seventeen new genetically modified food products will be authorised for import to Europe before the end of May in a significant acceleration of biotech trade, the Guardian has learned. An announcement could be made as early as next week, sources said, when a meeting of EU commissioners has been pencilled in to review adoption of new rules for approving GM imports. Europe currently imports around 58 GM products from abroad, mostly US maize, cotton, soy bean and sugar beet. But Greenpeace said that the US has raised the issue of a large logjam in biotech authorisations in talks over a free trade deal known as TTIP. “With transatlantic trade talks ongoing, pressure has been mounting from the biotech industry and the US government to break open the EU market to GM imports and to speed up authorisation procedures,” Marco Contiero, Greenpeace EU’s agriculture director, told the Guardian.

“The possible authorisation of 17 GM crops by the commission in the next few days is a likely result of this pressure.” “The timing is still being discussed but it is just a question of internal procedure now,” a source familiar with the discussions told the Guardian. “It is clear that the 17 strains will be authorised at the same time as the review meeting or just after. I would say it will happen before the end of May for sure.” Under proposed new GM import rules seen by the Guardian, future authorisations would automatically follow approval of new strains by the European Food and Safety Agency (Efsa). Individual countries would be given a similar opt-out to the one agreed for GM cultivation in a law passed earlier this year.

“It will be up to each member state wanting to make use of this ‘opt-out’ to develop this justification on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the GMO [genetically-modified organism] in question, the type of measure envisaged and the specific circumstances at national or regional level that can justify such an opt-out,” the draft said. Opposition from some EU states to draft GM authorisations is “usually not based on science but on other considerations reflecting the societal debate existing in the country,” the commission argues. So opt-outs will not be granted to EU states who seek it on health or environmental grounds, after Efsa has deemed a product safe. “The scope for the exceptions [opt-outs] will probably be less than in the cultivation proposal because we are talking about the internal market here,” an informed source said. “You will have to have a really solid reason. Otherwise it would be attacked as a disruption to the market.”

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“When you’re 400 yards from the lake and you have no water, you’re in trouble..”

Dry Wells Plague California as Drought Has Water Tables Plunging (Bloomberg)

Near California’s Success Lake, more than 1,000 water wells have failed. Farmers are spending $750,000 to drill 1,800 feet down to keep fields from going fallow. Makeshift showers have sprouted near the church parking lot. “The conditions are like a third-world country,” said Andrew Lockman, a manager at the Office of Emergency Services in Tulare County, in the heart of the state’s agricultural Central Valley about 175 miles north of Los Angeles. As California enters the fourth year of a record drought, its residents and $43 billion agriculture industry have drawn groundwater so low that it’s beyond the reach of existing wells. That’s left thousands with dry taps and pushed farmers to dig deeper as Governor Jerry Brown vorders the first mandatory water rationing in state history.

“The demand we’re placing on the aquifer and the deep bedrock drilling, which is going on at an alarmingly fast pace, is really scary,” said Tricia Blattler, executive director of the Tulare County Farm Bureau. “Folks are really concerned we’re not going to be able to find water in the groundwater system much longer. We are tapping it way too quickly.” Nowhere has lack of rain been felt more than in Tulare County, in a valley dotted with dairy farms and walnut orchards at the foot of the Sierra Nevada mountains. With 458,000 residents, it’s home to 1,013 dry wells, accounting for more than half of those that have failed in the state since January 2014.

Outside Porterville, in a dusty, unincorporated hamlet populated by many Latino citrus-farm workers, some residents use donated bottled water to drink and cook. About 40 people a day wash in the 26 showers set up in trailers next to the parking lot of Iglesia Emmanuel church. They lug nonpotable water home from county tanks for their toilets. Annette Clonts began bathing at friends’ homes or sneaking middle-of-the-night showers at Lake Success’s recreation area after the well near her trailer ran low two years ago. When the lake showers started sputtering in November, she turned to those at the church. “When you’re 400 yards from the lake and you have no water, you’re in trouble,” said Clonts, a 57-year-old retired cook.

[..] “We’ve got to find a way to survive, to hold on,” said Gallegos, who lives with her husband and two daughters. “Right now, we don’t have the money to drill a deeper well. You’re talking about $15,000.” That’s the starting price for residential wells, which range from 30 to 150 feet (9 to 46 meters) and can cost as much as $45,000, said Blattler, the official with the county’s farm bureau. Agricultural wells, which are about 1,000 to 1,800 feet, run $250,000 to $750,000, she said. There are so many customers, they’ll have to wait as long as two years.

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With an El Nino yet to come.

Global Temperature Records Just Got Crushed Again (Bloomberg)

It just keeps getting hotter. March was the hottest month on record, and the past three months were the warmest start to a year on record, according to new data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s a continuation of trends that made 2014 the most blistering year for the surface of the planet, in to records going back to 1880. Thirteen of the 14 hottest years are in the 21st century, and 2015 is on track to break the heat record again. Results from the world’s top monitoring agencies vary slightly. NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency both had March as the hottest month on record. NASA had it as the third-hottest. All three agencies agree that the past three months have been the hottest start to a year.

The heat was experienced differently across the world. People in the U.S. and Canadian Northeast had an unusually cool March. But vast swaths of unusually warm weather covered much of the globe, and records were broken from California to Australia. The sweltering start to 2015 may be just the beginning. The National Weather Services predicts that a pattern of unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean, known as El Nino, will most likely persist well into the second half of the year. And this El Nino could be a big one. El Nino conditions transfer heat that’s been building in the ocean into the atmosphere, affecting weather around the world. A strong El Nino could possibly bring relief to California’s unprecedented drought in the form of heavy rains, but would likely add yet another year to a pile of broken temperature records.

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Feb 222015
 
 February 22, 2015  Posted by at 11:22 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  12 Responses »


DPC “Car ferry Michigan Central turning in ice, Detroit River” 1900

Yellen Confronts Economists’ Ignorance (Bloomberg)
How The Eurozone Could Tear Apart (Telegraph)
Greece, The Euro And Solomon’s Wisdom (Kathimerini)
Greece Says Eurozone Deal Won Time As Cash Bled From Banks (Reuters)
The Real Battle Over Greece Still Lies Ahead (Bloomberg)
From Greek Warriors To Battered Soldiers – In A Week (Observer)
Germany Set To Approve Greek Deal If Promises Met: Merkel Ally (Reuters)
What Would Happen if Greece Leaves the Euro Zone? (Spiegel)
The 1 Reason Pope Francis Is The World’s Top Capitalist (Paul B. Farrell)
Russians Rally Against Kiev ‘Coup’ (BBC)
Poroshenko Bruised By Ukraine Army Retreat (BBC)
NATO Must Prepare For Russian Blitzkrieg, Warns UK General (FT)
Kerry Warns of More Russia Sanctions as Ukraine Simmers (Bloomberg)
Ousted Ukraine Leader Aims To Return As Rockets Threaten Peace Plan (Observer)
Ukraine, Rebels Swap Dozens Of Prisoners (Reuters)
Modi Bets On GMO Crops For India’s Second Green Revolution (Reuters)

What were ya thinking?

Yellen Confronts Economists’ Ignorance (Bloomberg)

Productivity is probably the most important measure of economic health that policy makers know the least about. Its pace will help determine how soon Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues increase interest rates and how far rates ultimately will rise. A quicker advance would argue for a later lift-off because the economy would have more room to run before bumping up against capacity constraints. It also eventually would require a higher ending point to prevent the more-vibrant expansion from overheating. Slower productivity would call for the opposite strategy. The trouble, according to former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, is that economists – including those at the Fed – don’t have a good idea of how fast productivity will grow in the next few years.

The long-run trend is “hugely important,” but “it can take years” to recognize any changes, he said in an interview. Yellen will lay out the central bank’s views of the economy and policy when she testifies before Congress next week. At their Jan. 27-28 meeting, officials discussed the timing and pace of potential rate increases. Many were inclined to keep the benchmark federal fund rate near zero “for a longer time,” according to minutes of the gathering released Feb. 18. John Fernald, a senior research adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pegs the trend growth rate of productivity at 1.8% a year for U.S. businesses and 2.1% for the economy as a whole.

Such projections are consistent with the Fed raising rates this year for the first time since 2006, said Dale Jorgenson, a professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and former chairman of its economics department. The margin of error around Fernald’s forecast is wide, though, as he is the first to acknowledge. “There’s basically an 80% chance over the next 10 years that productivity growth will average between 1 and 3%,” the Fed official said. Productivity measures the overall efficiency of the economy and matters beyond the central bank. It governs how fast the economy can expand, how much companies can earn and pay their workers, and how much the government can increase its budget. That is why economists put in a lot of time trying to parse it out.

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a 10000 ways.

How The Eurozone Could Tear Apart (Telegraph)

The eurozone was never designed with an exit plan in mind. The Maastricht Treaty’s 112 pages make no mention of a way for a country to pull out of the euro project. At the height of the eurozone crisis in 2011 and 2012, policymakers refused to countenance the idea of a splintered euro bloc. When pressed on the issue in late 2011, Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, would only say the possibility “is not in the treaty”. He was discussing the chance of a Greek exit – or Grexit – from the euro, a risk that has come back to haunt the project’s architects in recent weeks. The rise of populist anti-austerity parties across the continent – including Syriza in Greece – threatens to tear apart the bloc. Last week analysts warned that the risk of a euro breakup was greater than at the height of the last crisis. The odds on a Grexit offered this Friday – before a deal between Greece and its creditors was struck – gave it a more than a one-in-three chance by the end of the year.

A breakup of a currency union such as this would have been without recent precedent. The classic example of a union breaking apart – in the absence of violent conflict – is the Austro-Hungarian empire in 1918. It provides a crucial lesson: changes in currency need surprise. Anyone with assets will attempt to move them to safe havens, wary of a sharp devaluation. To work well, as few people as possible should know about the planned switch. Michael Spencer, an economist, told NPR’s Planet Money that while in principle it can be done: “It is much more likely that people see this coming.” The most likely suspects for a euro exit all have weaker economies than the area as a whole. Wary that whatever new currency is issued is likely to suffer a sharp devaluation, anyone with assets will attempt to move them to safe havens. To work well, as few people as possible should know about the planned switch.

In 1918, it became apparent that a breakup was imminent. Mr Spencer said that people took “boxcar loads of currency” across borders to where, upon conversion, their money would have greater worth. The process of conversion then involved stamping currency with ink, as almost all money was held in a physical form. Now, most savings are held electronically, and could be converted in an instant. So as long as word doesn’t get out, most cash can be dealt with. If it does, then capital can flee even more quickly than before, as shuffling currency to a different currency no longer relies upon the maximum speed of a horse. In Greece this deposit exodus has already begun. Capital outflows have reached €1bn a day. JP Morgan warned a week ago that capital flight would leave lenders without collateral within 14 weeks. By Friday, fears that a compromise would not be found led deposits to fall by a further €1bn in just two days, Reuters said citing sources.

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“It doesn’t take the wisdom of Solomon to see that the defeat of one is the defeat of all.”

Greece, The Euro And Solomon’s Wisdom (Kathimerini)

Today we will see who cares more for the future of the Greek people and for the eurozone’s stability, and which government places its own prestige above all else. Will Athens give more ground? Will Berlin remain unyielding? The 19 finance ministers of the Eurogroup face a paradox: they know that what is good for the Greeks is good for the common currency and vice versa – but the clumsy handling of the issue by the protagonists of the drama has created division which harms both Greece and the euro. How can the rift be bridged so that Greece can return to its efforts for economic recovery and Europe can move toward greater union? The Greek government has covered a lot of ground from its initial promises to halve the public debt, reject the austerity program in whole, roll back many reforms and turn its back on the troika of creditors.

On Wednesday, Athens asked the Eurogroup for a six-month extension of the aid agreement and accepted many of its partners’ demands – to the point that this was widely seen as capitulation. Of course, the proposal was murky on several points, so that the government could save face but also implement at least parts of its policy. This was quickly noted by the German Finance Ministry, which rejected the Greek proposal. It is significant that Greece made major concessions whereas Germany remained fixed in its position. We could argue, of course, that Greece had to cover a greater distance because it had strayed so far from the bailout agreement it had reached with its partners, whereas Germany was simply insisting on the restoration of order. But it is also clear that Berlin needs to show some flexibility in order to achieve progress – given the weaknesses, mistakes and many injustices of the program implemented in Greece.

The rigid imposition of the agreements (with only some unclear promises of future flexibility in the program) mirrors the initial rigidity of the Greek government, which put its utopian promises above the need to come to an honorable compromise with its partners. Athens started off by drawing red lines across existing agreements and commitments, presenting any effort at compromise as an effort to blackmail it into surrender. Fortunately, the German “no” did not derail today’s Eurogroup meeting and there is still some hope for an agreement that will allow both sides to work toward the stability of the Greek economy and of the euro. If both sides move a little closer they may just achieve this. Then Greece will be able to turn toward problems that need urgent attention and the EU will have shown that with some flexibility – in a show of leadership and not vengeance – it can keep alive the spirit of communal progress. It doesn’t take the wisdom of Solomon to see that the defeat of one is the defeat of all.

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The Greek economy and the Greek government weren’t strangled, as was perhaps the original political plan by centers abroad and within the country..”

Greece Says Eurozone Deal Won Time As Cash Bled From Banks (Reuters)

Greece’s left-wing government insisted on Saturday it had avoided being “strangled” by the eurozone, which agreed in principle to extend a financial rescue deal as nervous savers pulled huge sums from Greek banks. Athens said the deal struck late on Friday in Brussels should calm Greeks who had feared capital controls might be imposed as a prelude to leaving the euro. But some weary voters questioned what their new leaders had achieved in weeks of testy exchanges with euro zone hardliners led by EU paymaster Germany. After often ill-tempered negotiations, Greece secured late on Friday a four-month extension to euro zone funding, which will avert bankruptcy and a euro exit, provided it comes up with promises of economic reforms by Monday.

“We won time,” said government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis. “The Greek economy and the Greek government weren’t strangled, as was perhaps the original political plan by centers abroad and within the country,” he told Mega TV, without naming the euro zone hawks who forced the government into a climbdown at the Brussels talks. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has won wide support at home for what Greeks see as their leaders finally getting tough instead of going to Brussels cap in hand and taking orders from Berlin. But it was also under intense pressure at home. About €1 billion flooded out of Greek bank accounts on Friday, due to savers’ fears that the talks would fail and Athens might have to halt such withdrawals or prepare to reintroduce a national currency.

This added to an estimated €20 billion euros that Greeks have withdrawn since December, when it became clear that the radical SYRIZA party of Tsipras was likely to win power in last month’s parliamentary elections. Faced with the risk of a chaotic bank run on Tuesday after a long holiday weekend, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis stressed that the deal should calm savers. “It is quite clear that the reason why we had a deposit flight was because every day, even before we were elected, Greeks were being told that if we were elected and we stayed in power for more than just a few days the ATMs will cease functioning,” he told reporters in Brussels on Friday. “Today’s decision puts an end to this fear, to the scaremongering.”

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“Syriza’s “red lines won’t be violated, that’s why they’re called red.”

The Real Battle Over Greece Still Lies Ahead (Bloomberg)

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras claimed an initial victory after emergency talks with creditors gave the country a reprieve from the prospect of insolvency, as he began the task to sell the deal domestically. “Yesterday we won a battle, but not the war as the difficulties, the real difficulties, not only those related to the discussions and the relationship with our partners, are ahead of us,” Tsipras said in a televised speech on Saturday. Talks in Brussels between officials from the 19 euro-area countries concluded late Friday with an agreement to extend bailout funds to Greece for four months. Tsipras’s government must submit a list of economic measures it will undertake on Monday. Finance chiefs will then decide whether his proposals go far enough.

While the agreement potentially frees up some money to meet at least some of the pledges made by Tsipras before last month’s election, the outcome may still prove politically bruising for him. Even after last night’s agreement, his policies are subject to validation by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, the institutions collectively known as the troika from which Tsipras vowed to break free. “While Greece secured some ability to rewrite the terms of its current program, the sense is that the combination of pressure on its banking sector and on state cash flows has forced the bulk of concessions to come from their side,” Malcolm Barr, economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a client note. “This may place some degree of strain within Syriza itself.”

Tsipras said the deal “cancels austerity” and pledges by the previous government to cut wages, pensions and public sector employees and increase sales taxes. The list of reforms will be “based on the current arrangement,” the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers said in a statement. That will include corruption fight, public administration and tax system changes, government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis said on Mega TV on Saturday. Syriza lawmakers would approve the list of measures even if they didn’t fully meet pre-election promises, George Stathakis, Greek minister for economy, shipping, tourism and infrastructure, said in an interview in Kathimerini. Still, Environment and Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis said in an interview with Real News that Syriza’s “red lines won’t be violated, that’s why they’re called red.”

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Not getting the idea.

From Greek Warriors To Battered Soldiers – In A Week (Observer)

Greece’s people have undergone hardship on a scale not seen in a developed country since the 1930s. At the same time, Athens was effectively forced to subcontract economic policymaking to the troika, with its budgets pored over line by line by unelected foreign officials. And as the Jubilee Debt Campaign recently pointed out, more than half of the bailout funds went not to keep schools and hospitals open, but to repay the private sector speculators, in many cases German and French banks, that lent recklessly to Greece in the runup to the crisis, charging the government in Athens little more to borrow at the time than they asked of the parsimonious Germans. Tsipras and Varoufakis were right to question the virtue of austerity as a catalyst for economic recovery, too. The ECB’s recent decision to unleash a €60bn-a-month quantitative easing programme underlines the fact that demand in the eurozone economies remains weak and the recovery fragile.

Yet once Varoufakis and his colleagues were in the harsh spotlight of the world’s media in Brussels, they appeared ill-equipped for the brutal battle. For one thing, they appeared to give away many of their strongest cards almost as a starting point. Debt forgiveness, much talked about during the campaign, seemed to be off the agenda; “Grexit”, which should have been Varoufakis’s nuclear option, seemed ruled out from the start. While extremely risky, default and devaluation could have offered the Greek economy a re-set; and the market chaos that would inevitably follow would exact a high price for other eurozone members. Varoufakis should surely have left that possibility hanging like a sword over last week’s talks, instead of insisting in his long-winded introductory remarks – later leaked to the press – that “Greece is a permanent and inseparable member of the European Union and our monetary union”.

Perhaps it was a tactic, but there was a lot of bluster and very few numbers in Greece’s initial proposals. Wolfgang Schäuble also has a democratic mandate and he was always going to want to see how Athens would make the sums add up. In the end, when Friday night’s deal was announced, it was hard to see what Varoufakis had salvaged. Admittedly no one used the word “bailout”, instead referring to “the Master Facility Agreement”. But Greece will accept the supervision of the troika (without calling it such), submitting detailed reform proposals for review by the end of Monday; it will refrain from “rowing back” on reforms where they might endanger “fiscal sustainability”; and it will seek an extension of financial support, “on the basis of the conditions of the current arrangement”. What’s more, instead of the six-month bridging loan it had asked for, it will get just four months’ grace.

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Merkle will prove to be useless in peacetime.

Germany Set To Approve Greek Deal If Promises Met: Merkel Ally (Reuters)

The German parliament is likely to approve a four-month extension to euro zone funding for Greece, on condition Athens presents a list of reforms as promised, a senior ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel was quoted as saying. “The Greeks have to do their homework now,” Volker Kauder, leader of Merkel’s conservatives in parliament, told Welt am Sonntag newspaper, according to excerpts of an interview published on Saturday. “Then, an extension of the aid program can be approved by the German Bundestag.” Kauder added: “Greece has finally realized that it cannot turn a blind eye to reality.”

Greece late on Friday secured its four-month funding extension, averting bankruptcy and a euro exit, provided it comes up with promises of economic reforms by Monday. However, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Saturday the agreement struck with euro zone ministers cancelled austerity commitments made to international creditors by a previous conservative-led government. Other German conservative lawmakers welcomed the agreement cautiously, but also stressed there was still work to do. “We’ve taken an important step forward, but we’ve not reached the finishing line yet,” said Ralph Brinkhaus, deputy parliamentary floor leader for Merkel’s conservatives.

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“..companies, banks and governments all prepare for the kind of worst case scenario that isn’t even addressed in euro-zone statutes..”

What Would Happen if Greece Leaves the Euro Zone? (Spiegel)

On Wednesday of this week, 30 top managers at a large German bank all received a text message and an email at the exact same time. A short time later, their mobile phones rang with an automated voice giving them all passwords and a number to call at exactly 8:30 a.m. to join a teleconference with the board of directors. The communication blast was the initial step of the bank’s emergency “Grexit” plan, a strategy laid out in a document dozens of pages long detailing exactly how managers should react in the event that Greece leaves the euro zone. Each of the 30 bank managers were required to work through the emergency measures pertaining to his or her division. Information was to be transferred to the supervisory board and public officials were likewise to be kept informed as was the German Finance Ministry.

The plan also called for large investors to be put at ease. Questions pertaining to potential bank losses from Greek bond holdings were to be addressed as were changes in monetary transactions with Greece once it was no longer part of the common currency zone. The response also extended to internal bank communication, with instructions to employees for dealing with the new situation posted in the financial institution’s intranet. Customers and stake holders were also to be kept informed. At exactly 6 p.m., the crisis came to an end, as did the work day. Plan “Grexit” was just a dry run, nothing more. At least not yet. Such scenarios are being acted out across Europe these days as companies, banks and governments all prepare for the kind of worst case scenario that isn’t even addressed in euro-zone statutes: the exit of one of the common currency area’s member states.

On Thursday, Greece’s new government under Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras finally applied for an extension to its bailout program. But, from the perspective of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, he failed to fulfill the conditions laid down by the Euro Group. Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke on the phone with Tsipras and negotiations have continued, with the next major round scheduled for Friday night. But even if a compromise is found in the end, the game of high-stakes poker will not be over. Both sides would have to agree to a new plan for nursing the country back to financial health.

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Farrell going astray…

The 1 Reason Pope Francis Is The World’s Top Capitalist (Paul B. Farrell)

Yes, Pope Francis really is a capitalist. Forget his anticapitalist, anticonsumerism rhetoric. Unless he reverses Catholicism’s outdated and destructive dogma on population control, Francis is destined to help capitalists take absolute control of the global economy …. and do more damage to Planet Earth’s climate than the “poison of consumerism.” Yes, thanks to Pope Francis and his dogma on population control, marriage and contraception, capitalists have a steady supply of new consumers fueling their growth. And they’ll get far richer as this supply of new consumers grows to 10 billion by 2050. Why is this so crucial? Because the pope’s failure to reverse the Catholic Church’s historic religious policies on birth control is fueling population growth … guaranteeing explosive consumer growth for capitalists … strengthening capitalism.

Will Pope Francis ever change? Unlikely, certainly not in time to save the world from capitalism’s guaranteed self-destructive trajectory. Why? Because Francis is handicapped by his all-male army of more than 200 cardinals, 5,000 bishops and 450,000 priests all committed to celibacy, against artificial birth control, all driven by perpetual population growth policies also essential to economic growth in today’s capitalist economy, while also accelerating climate change disasters that will eventually decimate human civilization, self-destruct the planet, and even destroy their precious capitalism! Can’t save the world? Well actually there is one way Francis could save the world, if he chose to. He could reverse the Catholic dogma fueling out-of-control global population growth.

Yes, that’d ne a start, but not enough. The pope would then have to convince more than his 1.2 million Catholic faithful. He’d also have to nudge all heads of state, and the world’s seven billion humans, especially young parents making babies, that they’d have cut back their family expectations. But that isn’t going to happen, in time. Climate disasters? You bet, demographic experts like The Earth Institute’s Jeff Sachs, who warns that by the end of this century the planet not only can’t feed 10 billion, we cannot even feed five billion. What a dilemma: Parents love babies. Families thrive on children. Capitalists also love babies, but for a different reason. Babies are consumers, fuel businesses, increase revenues, profits, wealth. It’s a simple economic equation, capitalists just see babies as new consumers. It’s all about money, period. Later, those babies grow up. The cycle continues.

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Wow, BBC even!

Russians Rally Against Kiev ‘Coup’ (BBC)

A rally has taken place in Moscow to condemn the “coup” in neighbouring Ukraine, a year after the downfall of its pro-Russian president. Russian state media heavily promoted the rally and march with the slogan “We won’t forget! We won’t forgive!”. Ukraine’s protests ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Speaking on Russian TV, the ex-leader condemned “lawlessness” in Ukraine, saying the situation there had caused him “very many sleepless nights”. Since Mr Yanukovych’s departure, Russia has annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and is accused of backing rebels in eastern Ukraine. A ceasefire plan agreed this month in Minsk has appeared close to collapse since taking effect just over a week ago. The Ukrainian government, Western leaders and Nato say there is clear evidence that Russia is helping the rebels in eastern Ukraine with heavy weapons and soldiers. Independent experts echo that accusation. Moscow denies it, insisting that any Russians serving with the rebels are “volunteers”.

Nearly 5,700 people have died since the fighting erupted last April and some 1.5 million people have fled their homes, according to the UN. Groups of demonstrators gathered in central Moscow on Saturday under patriotic Russian banners. Police estimated that about 35,000 people in total took part. The Moscow event was styled as an “anti-Maidan” march – a reference to Ukraine’s pro-EU protests that started on Kiev’s central Independence Square, widely known as the Maidan. The BBC’s Sarah Rainsford, at the scene, says the event was highly organised, with flags and banners distributed and buses laid on from some provinces. The marchers included Cossacks in full uniform and young women in anoraks emblazoned with pictures of Russian President Vladimir Putin, she says.

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Legal status please?

Poroshenko Bruised By Ukraine Army Retreat (BBC)

The question is not whether the fall of the strategically important road and rail hub of Debaltseve was a blow to Ukraine’s political and military leaders. It was. The question is how big the impact will be. President Petro Poroshenko is portraying the retreat of thousands of Ukrainian government forces as an “orderly” tactical withdrawal. However, initial reports indicate it may have been just the opposite. It is still possible that the retreat avoided a larger, more catastrophic defeat – something along the lines of the Ilovaysk debacle last summer, when Ukrainian forces were encircled by insurgents and possibly regular Russian forces, and were ambushed as they attempted to escape, with untold numbers killed. Much of the political fallout will depend on how big the Debaltseve losses were. So far, the government is saying at least 13 soldiers were killed, 157 wounded, 90 captured and 82 missing.

But the actual figures might be much higher. Also potentially damaging could be the reportedly slapdash, chaotic manner in which the evacuation was carried out, with soldiers escaping on foot after their vehicles were destroyed, and large amounts of armour and ammunition left behind. Already there are rumblings of public discontent. “I have seen this with my own eyes, on the battlefield and in the army headquarters, how military action is planned and executed,” Semyon Semenchenko, commander of the volunteer Donbass battalion, told the BBC. “I can assure you that we lost Debaltseve not because of the Russian military advantage, but because our generals refuse to take responsibility,” he said. Mr Semenchenko has proposed a “parallel” co-ordinating structure for the volunteer battalions fighting in the east. So far 13 battalion leaders have signed up, including Dmytro Yarosh of the nationalist Right Sector.

Mr Semenchenko insists this is not to replace, but to help, the army’s general command in “information exchange, planning, logistical assistance and facilitating mobilisation.” Still, his announcement raised concerns. Eight battalion commanders have refused to join the body, calling on Mr Semenchenko to “end his daily populist and PR statements”. President Poroshenko seems to have a firm grip on power, and many Ukrainians believe he is doing his best in a horrible political and economic situation. Nonetheless, his popularity is slipping. A recent poll showed his approval rating had decreased from 57% to 45%, with 46% saying he was doing a bad job. The “don’t knows” were 9%. Debaltseve has not helped matters at all. And it is possible that the defeat – should the truth be worse than what is being presented at the moment – could significantly damage the Ukrainian president..

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Stupid is as stupid does.

NATO Must Prepare For Russian Blitzkrieg, Warns UK General (FT)

Nato forces must prepare for an overwhelming Blitzkrieg-style assault by Russia on an eastern European member state designed to catch the alliance off guard and snatch territory, the deputy supreme commander of the military alliance has warned. Openly raising the prospect of a conventional armed conflict with Russia on European soil, the remarks by Sir Adrian Bradshaw, second-in-command of Nato’s military forces in Europe, are some of the most strident to date from Nato. They come amid a worsening in relations with the Kremlin just days into a second fragile ceasefire aimed at curbing continued bloodshed in Ukraine’s restive east between Kiev’s forces and Russian-backed separatists.

Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London on Friday, Sir Adrian warned that as well as adapting to deal with subversion and other “hybrid” military tactics being used by Russia in Ukraine, allied forces needed to be prepared for the prospect of an overt invasion. “Russia might believe the large-scale conventional forces she has shown she can generate at very short notice — as we saw in the snap exercises that preceded the takeover of Crimea — could in future not only be used for intimidation and coercion, but could be used to seize Nato territory,” he said.

Sir Adrian is a former commander of British land forces and the most senior UK officer in the alliance. He added: “After which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity — this use of so-called escalation dominance was, of course, a classic Soviet technique.” Deploying overwhelming force at short notice has become a hallmark of recent Russian military exercises. Russia’s 2013 “Zapad” (“West”) war game involved the rapid mobilisation of 25,000 troops in Belarus and the enclave of Kaliningrad for a conflict with a Nato state.

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The Heinz tool box.

Kerry Warns of More Russia Sanctions as Ukraine Simmers (Bloomberg)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that further sanctions may be imposed against Russia over the next few days if further breaches of a truce in Ukraine continue. “Some additional steps will be taken in response to the breaches of this cease-fire,” Kerry told reporters at the U.S. Embassy in London after talks Saturday with U.K. Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond. “There are some yet very serious sanctions that can be taken which have a profound, increased negative impact on the Russian economy.” Ukraine accused Moscow of sending more troops into eastern Ukraine, contravening a European-brokered truce that was reached in Minsk and took effect Feb. 15. U.S. officials said at the time they wouldn’t rule out imposing tougher sanctions on Russia or giving more security assistance to Ukraine if the Minsk deal isn’t fully implemented.

“We know to a certainty what Russia has been providing and no amount of propaganda is capable of hiding these actions,” Kerry said. Moscow has denied accusations that its forces are fighting in Ukraine. The Russian economy is already swaying as households are hit by a 44% slump in the ruble in the past year and prices soar. “We are not seeking to hurt the people of Russia who regrettably pay a collateral price as a result of these sanctions,” Kerry said, but “increasingly there will be an inevitable, broader impact as the sanctions ratchet up.” Kerry travels to Geneva Sunday for two days of talks with senior Iranian officials on Tehran’s disputed nuclear program before a March 24 deadline for a framework agreement.

The Ukrainian cease-fire agreement brokered last week has been tested by persistent clashes near the cities of Donetsk and Mariupol. Ukraine’s pro-Russian rebels and the government prepared to exchange prisoners in a move toward meeting the terms of the agreement.
Ukraine, the U.S., the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization say Russia is backing the separatists with hardware, cash and troops – accusations leaders in the Kremlin deny. Russia says Ukraine is waging war on its own citizens and discriminates against Russian speakers, a majority in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. EU President Donald Tusk said Friday he’d start consultations on new steps “to increase further the costs of aggression on eastern Ukraine” in response to continued “ruthless attacks” by the rebels.

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Ok, well, that’s a bit much maybe.

Ousted Ukraine Leader Aims To Return As Rockets Threaten Peace Plan (Observer)

Ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych has controversially spoken out from self-imposed exile in Russia, promising, exactly a year after he fled Kiev, to return to Ukraine to ease people s lives and help stop the war. Yanukovych’s interview with Russia’s state-owned Channel One was his first public appearance since he gave two bizarre press conferences in Rostov-on-Don in February and March 2014, claiming he remained Ukraine’s president. I regret that I was unable to do anything, Yanukovych said. As soon as it s possible, I will come back and do everything in my power to ease people’s lives. The main task now is to stop the war. In the year since he fled, Russian president Vladimir Putin has annexed Crimea, Russia-backed rebels have established breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine, and at least 5,600 people have died in the conflict.

Yanukovych is despised across much of Ukraine, viewed as a corrupt Russian puppet by the pro-western protesters that forced him from office, and as a coward in the pro-Russia east. As he spoke, a fragile peace plan remained in the balance, with a prisoner exchange proceeding on Saturday amid continued shelling. Meanwhile thousands assembled in Moscow for an anti-Maidan rally . Veterans, Cossacks, prominent pro-Putin bikers and others waved signs denouncing Kiev, and banners reading, We don t need western ideology and gay parades, and Putin is our president.

Rows of buses parked nearby and the rapid departure of attenders after the rally raised suspicions that hired protesters had been brought in from other regions, a common tactic at pro-Kremlin rallies. In Kiev, Petro Poroshenko, the oligarch who publicly backed the EuroMaidan protests last winter and was elected president in May, blamed Russia for inciting conflict at an anniversary vigil in memory of more than 100 demonstrators killed at the height of the unrest. Commemorations continued on Saturday with a display by the defence ministry of grenade-launchers, drones and other weaponry seized in eastern Ukraine, which it claimed was from Russia.

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Without the CIA f%#ing things up..

Ukraine, Rebels Swap Dozens Of Prisoners (Reuters)

Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists have exchanged dozens of prisoners in east Ukraine, a Ukrainian Security Council aide confirmed on Sunday, a step toward implementing an internationally brokered peace deal. Reuters reporters in the village of Zholobok, 20 km (12 miles) west of the rebel stronghold of Luhansk, saw more than 130 Ukrainian servicemen being released late on Saturday evening in exchange for 52 rebel fighters. The exchange is one of the first moves to implement the peace deal reached on Feb. 12 in the Belarussian capital Minsk after the French, German, Russian and Ukrainian leaders met. The Security Council’s Markian Lubkivskyi, in a post on his Facebook page early on Sunday, published a list of the 139 released Ukrainian servicemen and said the government would do its utmost to free those remaining in rebel captivity.

Fighting has eased in many areas since a ceasefire came into effect a week ago, but the truce was badly shaken by the rebel capture on Wednesday of the strategic town of Debaltseve, forcing a retreat by thousands of Ukrainian troops. The Ukrainian military said rebels had launched 12 separate attacks on government troop positions overnight, using artillery and mortar fire. The town of Pesky near Donetsk had seen the most intense fighting, while separatist groups had attempted to “storm” Ukrainian positions in Shyrokyne, east of the strategic port city of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov, it said on Facebook.

Kiev accuses separatists of building up forces and weapons in Ukraine’s southeast and has said it is braced for the possibility of a rebel attack on Mariupol. Nevertheless, rebel leaders said on Saturday they had signed a document detailing a plan for the withdrawal of heavy weapons, as required by the Minsk agreement, a sign they may be prepared to halt their advance, having achieved their main military objective by seizing Debaltseve. The rebel press service DAN said Ukrainian troops had been shelling parts of Donetsk, reporting that artillery fire could be heard in the city at around 0730 GMT.

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That’s all Monsanto needs: an idiot in charge of 20%+s of the world population, and who can be bought.

Modi Bets On GMO Crops For India’s Second Green Revolution (Reuters)

On a fenced plot not far from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home, a field of mustard is in full yellow bloom, representing his government’s reversal of an effective ban on field trials of genetically modified (GM) food crops. The GM mustard planted in the half-acre field in the grounds of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute in New Delhi is in the final stage of trials before the variety is allowed to be sold commercially, and that could come within two years, scientists associated with the project say. India placed a moratorium on GM aubergine in 2010 fearing the effect on food safety and biodiversity. Field trials of other GM crops were not formally halted, but the regulatory system was brought to a deadlock. But allowing GM crops is critical to Modi’s goal of boosting dismal farm productivity in India, where urbanization is devouring arable land and population growth will mean there are 1.5 billion mouths to feed by 2030 – more even than China.

Starting in August last year, his government resumed the field trials for selected crops with little publicity. “Field trials are already on because our mandate is to find out a scientific review, a scientific evaluation,” Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar told Reuters last week. “Confined, safe field trials are on. It’s a long process to find out whether it is fully safe or not.” Modi was a supporter of GM crops when he was chief minister of Gujarat state over a decade ago, the time when GM cotton was introduced in the country and became a huge success. Launched in 2002, Bt cotton, which produces its own pesticide, is the country’s only GM crop and covers 95% of India’s cotton cultivation of 11.6 million hectares (28.7 million acres). From being a net importer, India has become the world’s second-largest producer and exporter of the fiber.

However, grassroots groups associated with Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have opposed GM crops because of the reliance on seeds patented by multinationals. The Swadeshi Jagran Manch, a nationalist group which promotes self-reliance, has vowed to hold protests if GM food crops are made commercially available. “There is no scientific evidence that GM enhances productivity,” said Pradeep, a spokesman for the group. “And in any case, why should we hand over our agriculture to some foreign companies? A handful of agrichemical and seeds companies dominate the global market for GM crops, including Monsanto, DuPont, Dow and Syngenta. Largely agricultural India became self-sufficient in foodgrains after the launch of the Green Revolution in the 1960s, when it introduced high-yielding seed varieties and the use of fertilizer and irrigation. The challenge now is to replicate that success in edible oils and vegetables, which are increasingly in demand.

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Feb 152015
 


DPC Madison Street east from Fifth Avenue, Chicago Sep 1 1900

‘Finance Is The New Warfare’ Michael Hudson: Has the IMF Annexed Ukraine? (NC)
Ron Paul: ‘Get NATO, Foreign Countries Out Of Ukraine To End Civil War’ (RT)
In Ukraine, The New World Disorder Enters Europe (Observer)
Contrarian US Bond Manager Braces For Big Ukraine Losses (FT)
The War Next Door: Can Merkel’s Diplomacy Save Europe? (Spiegel)
Russia Shrugs Off US Envoy’s ‘Evidence’ Of Russian Troops In Ukraine (RT)
New Anti-Russia Sanctions to Enter Into Force Monday (Sputnik)
Igor Sechin: The Oil Man At The Heart Of Putin’s Kremlin (Independent)
Greece And Creditors Continue Talks Ahead Of Eurogroup Meeting (AFP)
Do Derivatives Make The World Safer? (Guillaume Vuillemey)
Derivatives No Longer Used For Hedging But For “Alpha Generation” (Zero Hedge)
Goldman Warns Over-Supply Means Oil Prices Will Be Much Lower (Zero Hedge)
Libya Warns of Complete Oil Shutdown as Attacks Escalate (Bloomberg)
Start Saving Those Pennies Now, Robert Shiller Warns Investors (CNBC)
UK Tories Told To Shun Wealthy Donors To Avoid Scandal (Guardian)
New York’s Streets Are Suddenly Safer. Why? (Guardian)
GMO Apples Win Approval For Sale In US (Reuters)
Germany Moves To Legalise Fracking (Guardian)
South Africa Bars Foreigners From Owning Land (Reuters)
Planet Earth Is The Titanic, Climate Change The Iceberg (Paul B. Farrell)
Punxsutawney Phil Wanted By Police, Offered Asylum At Ski Resort (ExpressTimes)

“There is no excuse for making this error – except that the error is deliberate, and is intended to lead to failure..”

‘Finance Is The New Warfare’ Michael Hudson: Has the IMF Annexed Ukraine? (NC)

Michael, in a recent interview published in The National Interest magazine, you said that most media covers Russia as if it is the greatest threat to Ukraine. History suggests the IMF may be far more dangerous. What did you mean by that?

HUDSON: First of all, the terms on which the IMF make loans require more austerity and a withdrawal of all the public subsidies. The Ukrainian population already is economically devastated. The conditions that the IMF’s program is laying down for making loans to Ukraine is that it must repay the debts. But it doesn’t have the ability to pay. So there’s only one way to do it, and that’s the way that the IMF has told Greece and other countries to do: It has to begin selling off whatever the nation has left of its public domain; or, to have your leading oligarchs take on partnerships with American or European investors, so that they can buy out into the monopolies in the Ukraine and indulge in rent-extraction. This is the IMF’s one-two punch.

Punch number one is: here’s the loan – to pay your bondholders, so that you now owe us, the IMF, to whom you can’t write down debts. The terms of this loan is to believe our Guiding Fiction: that you can pay foreign debt by running a domestic budgetary surplus, by cutting back public spending and causing an even deeper depression. This idea that foreign debts can be paid by squeezing out domestic tax revenues was controverted by Keynes in the 1920s in his discussion of German reparations. There is no excuse for making this error – except that the error is deliberate, and is intended to lead to failure, so that the IMF can then say that to everyone’s surprise and nobody’s blame, their “stabilization program” destabilized rather than stabilized the economy.

The penalty for following this junk economics must be paid by the victim, not by the victimizer. This is part of the IMF’s “blame the victim” strategy. The IMF then throws its Number Two punch. It says, “Oh, you can’t pay us? I’m sorry that our projections were so wrong. But you’ve got to find some way to pay – by forfeiting whatever assets your economy may still have in domestic hands. The IMF has been wrong on Ukraine year after year, almost as much as it’s been wrong on Ireland and on Greece. Its prescriptions are the same as those that devastated Third World economies from the 1970s onward. So now the problem becomes one of just what Ukraine is going to have to sell off to pay the foreign debts – run up increasingly for waging the war that’s devastated its economy.

One asset that foreign investors want is Ukrainian farmland. Monsanto has been buying into Ukraine – or rather, leasing its land, because Ukraine has a law against alienating its farmland and agricultural land to foreigners. And a matter of fact, its law is very much the same as what the Financial Times reports Australia is wanting to do to block Chinese and American purchase of farmland. The IMF also insists that debtor countries dismantle public regulations againstforeign investment, as well as consumer protection and environmental protection regulations. This means that what is in store for Ukraine is a neoliberal policy that’s guaranteed to actually make the situation even worse. In that sense, finance is war. Finance is the new kind of warfare, using finance and forced sell-offs in a new kind of battlefield.

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“There will be less of a civil war going on there because they will have to worry about their debt. This is an economic matter too. You have to realize that the country is totally bankrupt.”

Ron Paul: ‘Get NATO, Foreign Countries Out Of Ukraine To End Civil War’ (RT)

The best thing for Ukraine is to force NATO, the US, and regional players out of the country, former US congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul said. Without foreign meddling in the civil war, Kiev will focus on the nation’s economic collapse. “Get the foreigners out of there [Ukraine], get the Europeans out, the US out, get NATO out, and get the Russians out,” Paul said at the International Students for Liberty Conference in Washington on Friday. “There will be less of a civil war going on there because they will have to worry about their debt. This is an economic matter too. You have to realize that the country is totally bankrupt.”

Paul’s speech followed the NSA surveillance whistleblower Edward Snowden’s presentation. “I’m not pro-Putin, I’m not pro-Russia, but I’m pro-facts,” Paul stressed when defending his stance. “Crimea is not exactly a foreign country, according to the Russians. But I’m neutral on that,” the former presidential candidate stated. Paul – a 79-year-old retired doctor who spent nearly three decades in the US Congress representing the state of Texas – reiterated his previous statements, noting that what happened in Ukraine last year was a “coup” that was planned by “NATO, EU” and western Ukrainians. “One thing for sure that we do know, is we [US] had the conversations between our State Department and our ambassador before the coup – who will we put in place. And they planned part of the coup.”

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“..in the foreseeable future there will be no common security system on the continent of Europe, no commonly agreed-upon norms and no rules of behaviour.”

In Ukraine, The New World Disorder Enters Europe (Observer)

After the ceasefire negotiated in Minsk, a peace settlement in eastern Ukraine remains distant. Most of the points in the agreement, including Ukraine’s constitutional reform and the resumption of Kiev’s control over the entire Ukrainian-Russian border, will probably never be implemented. The most one can hope for is that the conflict is frozen and people stop dying. Even that, however, cannot be taken for granted, as continued fighting ahead of the ceasefire’s formal entry into force suggests. If the truce sticks, it will be the first negotiated arrangement in a newly divided Europe, leaving Russia almost alone on the east, with much of the rest of Europe supporting Ukraine. This split can grow much worse if the conflict in Donbass continues. But even if it stops, reconciliation is not on the cards.

This means that in the foreseeable future there will be no common security system on the continent of Europe, no commonly agreed-upon norms and no rules of behaviour. The world disorder has entered the recently most stable and best-regulated part of the globe: Europe. The idea that a combination of western sanctions and the low oil price can bring a change in Kremlin policies, or a change in the Kremlin itself, has so far not been borne out by the facts. Putin remains defiant, the elites do not turn against him, and his popularity among the bulk of the Russian people, despite the hardships they have begun to feel, is at record levels.

These people are not ignorant of the dangers a continued conflict over Ukraine can pose to them, but lay the blame for these on Kiev, Washington and the European leaders. Putin, whether as war leader or a peacemaker, is their champion. At Minsk, he has achieved his minimal goal. Kiev has conceded the failure of its efforts to wipe out the Donbass rebels backed by Moscow. If the ceasefire becomes permanent, the “people’s republics” will be physically safe and can start turning themselves into functioning entities on the models of Transnistria. Russia will need to supply them with more than weapons and humanitarian assistance, straining its resources even more, but there’s hardly an alternative. For Putin, and most Russians, these are “our people”.

Yet, in Minsk, Putin reaffirmed Russia’s official position that Donbass should remain part of Ukraine. This is not a concession. Within a formally unified Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk are a protected centre of resistance to the political leadership in Kiev. The situation in the rest of the country permitting, they can expand their influence beyond Donbass and link up with those who, a year after the triumph of the Maidan, have become disillusioned with their government, which is woefully unable to tame corruption and improve the lives of ordinary Ukrainians. Indeed, if the truce in the east of the country holds, the future of Ukraine will depend on how it manages reform and popular discontent.

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Meanwhile, inside the casino…

Contrarian US Bond Manager Braces For Big Ukraine Losses (FT)

Ukraine is widely expected to impose a haircut on private sector creditors under the terms of a forthcoming bailout from the International Monetary Fund. If so, then one investor stands to lose more than any other: Michael Hasenstab, the fund manager renowned for taking unpopular bets on government debt. Through vehicles at Franklin Templeton, the big US money manager based in California, Mr Hasenstab owns more than $7bn of Ukrainian debt, making him the country’s biggest private bondholder. He has previously scored big rewards for his contrarian moves, which included a large purchase of Irish debt in the midst of the eurozone crisis and investments in Hungary and Uruguay.

But as the crisis in Ukraine has escalated his position has suffered, leaving his $69bn Templeton Global Bond Fund and others down approximately $3bn on the investment, according to Bloomberg data, encouraging a flood of client money to leave the fund at the end of last year. Alongside Mr Hasenstab, investments in Ukraine’s eurobonds are split between household financial names, including BlackRock, Allianz and Fidelity, most of which hold no more than 2.5% of any individual Ukrainian bond. In addition to its publicly traded bonds, Ukraine also owes $3bn to Russia, which is due to mature in December. But Mr Hasenstab, who began investing in Ukraine in 2010, clearly has the most at stake.

He was originally drawn by the country s relatively low level of debt to gross domestic product, its promising agricultural sector and high yields available on bonds. Over the years he has topped up his position, reiterating his belief in the long-term potential of Ukraine, thanks in part to its strategic position, geographically and geopolitically, at the crossroads of Europe and the east. In an interview with the Financial Times in June, he said the difficulties that the country faced were political, not economic, and he felt comfortable that tensions would be resolved. ‘Ukraine should have linkages with Europe .. but it should also have linkages with Russia and I think the Nato inclusion was probably one of the largest motivations of Putin’s military aggression and now that is taken off the table’, he said.

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“The situation in Debaltseve plunged the Ukrainian army into a desperate, almost hopeless, position, as the negotiators in Minsk well knew. Indeed, it was the reason the talks were so urgently necessary.” Note that on the map, Der Spiegel pits the Unrainian army vs the Russian one, not the rebels.

The War Next Door: Can Merkel’s Diplomacy Save Europe? (Spiegel)

The problem has four syllables: Debaltseve. German Chancellor Angela Merkel can now pronounce it without difficulties, as can French President François Hollande. Debaltseve proved to be one of the thorniest issues during the negotiations in Minsk on Wednesday night and into Thursday. Indeed, the talks almost completely collapsed because of Debaltseve. Ultimately, Debaltseve may end up torpedoing the deal that was worked out in the end. Debaltseve is a small town in eastern Ukraine, held by 6,000 government troops, or perhaps 8,000. Nobody wants to say for sure. It is the heart of an army that can only put 30,000 soldiers into the field, a weak heart. Until Sunday of last week, that heart was largely encircled by pro-Russian separatists and the troops could only be supplied by way of highway M03. Then, Monday came.

Separatist fighters began advancing across snowy fields towards the village of Lohvynove, a tiny settlement of 30 houses hugging the M03. The separatists stormed an army checkpoint and killed a few officers. They then dug in – and the heart of the Ukrainian army was surrounded. The situation in Debaltseve plunged the Ukrainian army into a desperate, almost hopeless, position, as the negotiators in Minsk well knew. Indeed, it was the reason the talks were so urgently necessary. Debaltseve was one of the reasons Merkel and Hollande launched their most recent diplomatic offensive nine days ago. The other reason was the American discussion over the delivery of weapons to the struggling Ukrainian army.

Debaltseve and the weapons debate had pushed Europe to the brink of a dangerous escalation – and the fears of a broader war were growing rapidly. A well-armed proxy war between Russia and the West in Ukraine was becoming a very real possibility. A conflict which began with the failure of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and the protests on Maidan Square in Kiev, and one which escalated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of the Crimea Peninsula, has long since become the most dangerous stand-off Europe has seen in several decades. It is possible that it could ultimately involve the US and Russia facing each other across a line of demarcation.

Given the intensity of the situation, Germany and France together took the initiative and forced the Wednesday night summit in Minsk, Belarus. The long night of talks, which extended deep into Thursday morning, was the apex of eight days of shuttle diplomacy between Moscow, Kiev, Washington and Munich. With intense focus during dozens of hours of telephone conversations and negotiations across the globe, the German chancellor helped wrest a cease-fire from the belligerents. It is a fragile deal full of question marks, one which can only succeed if all parties dedicate themselves to adhering to it. Whether that will be the case is doubtful. The Minsk deal is brief respite. Nothing more. But it is a success nonetheless.

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“It’s no secret to anyone that fakes like this are made by a group of US counselors staying in the Kiev building of the Security Council, led by General Randy Kee..”

Russia Shrugs Off US Envoy’s ‘Evidence’ Of Russian Troops In Ukraine (RT)

The Russian Ministry of Defense has branded new claims by the US ambassador to Ukraine as “crystal ball gazing.” The ambassador tweeted pictures of what he said were Russian armed forces in Debaltsevo, eastern Ukraine. On Saturday, the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, posted on Twitter what he says are satellite photos proving there are Russian artillery systems stationed near the town of Lomuvatka, about 20 kilometers northeast of Debaltsevo. The images could not be immediately verified. Under the tweet, he said: “We are confident these are Russia military, not separatist systems.” The photographs were commissioned by the private Digital Globe satellite company.

“We have failed to understand how those grainy dark patches in the photos published by US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt on his Twitter feed could prove anything,” Major General Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, told journalists later in the day. “Unlike the American intelligence services, Russia’s military [has] never considered crystal ball gazing a good way to check and confirm data.” Konashenkov also disregarded an earlier allegation by State Department spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki, saying he has not heard “anything new.” On Friday, Psaki declared that in addition to the artillery systems and multiple rocket launchers, Russia had also deployed air defense systems to the area near the surrounded railway hub.

“This is clearly not in the spirit of this week’s agreement. All parties must show complete restraint in the run up to Sunday,” Psaki told reporters. In late July, the Russian Ministry of Defense spoke out against images posted by Pyatt on his Twitter account, which alleged that Ukraine had been shelled from Russian territory. “These materials were posted to Twitter not by accident, as their authenticity is impossible to prove – due to the absence of the attribution to the exact area, and an extremely low resolution. Let alone using them as ‘photographic evidence,’” Konashenkov said at the time. “It’s no secret to anyone that fakes like this are made by a group of US counselors staying in the Kiev building of the Security Council, led by General Randy Kee,” he noted.

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Craziness.

New Anti-Russia Sanctions to Enter Into Force Monday (Sputnik)

Maja Kocijancic, European Commission’s spokesperson for foreign affairs, confirmed Friday that the EU will add 19 individuals, including five Russians, and nine entities to the list of sanctions over Ukraine on February 16. The statement was made a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin, together with the leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine, brokered a new deal on the crisis reconciliation in Minsk. “The political decision of additional listings has been taken on January 29. The [EU] Foreign Affairs Council on Monday adopted a legal act so it made it fulfilled this political commitment and has set to give the diplomatic efforts a chance that entering into force will happen on February 16, which is this coming Monday,” Kocijancic said.

The European Union, the United States and other countries have imposed several rounds of sanctions against Russia over its alleged role in the Ukrainian conflict. The restrictions target the country’s defense, energy and finance sectors, as well as a number of individuals. Moscow has repeatedly stressed that it is not militarily involved in Ukraine’s internal affairs. Following the Minsk talks, EU leaders convened for an informal meeting but a new-wave of anti-Russia sanctions was not on the agenda, European Council President Donald Tusk announced. Meanwhile European leaders agreed that the implementation of Thursday’s deal will become a touchstone for further relations with Russia.

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“..The EU imposed a ban in the European Court on accepting claims from Russian entities and individuals that have been subjected to sanctions. [This] has severe consequences, including for European democracy. Is there an independent rule of law?“

Igor Sechin: The Oil Man At The Heart Of Putin’s Kremlin (Independent)

Igor Sechin, the boss of Russian oil behemoth Rosneft and one of the most powerful men in Russia, has declared European sanctions against his giant state-controlled organisation are an illegal affront to democracy. In a rare interview, the man widely seen as being Vladimir Putin’s closest adviser said the world economy faced “severe consequences” as a result of the sanctions, which he said were “absolutely illegal and illegitimate”. He also spoke of how Rosneft – 20% owned by Britain’s BP – will cope with the collapse in the oil price, revealing that the company will be cutting its capital expenditure programme for this year by “approximately 30%”. That will represent a savage reduction on 2014’s spend, said in October to be $14bn-$16bn.

It follows cuts announced recently by other major firms around the world totalling $65bn. Although predicting continued volatility and saying he did not want to get into a “guessing game”, he said the oil price could start to rise again in the final quarter of this year. This was because the current oversupply of oil was insignificant compared with previous oil crises like 1985, so the fundamental supply and demand equation did not justify the current price slump. Moreover, demand is rising, primarily in Asia, and not falling like it was in 1985, he said. He repeatedly expressed his concerns that there could be a global shortage of oil if companies did not return to investing in production and output. If investment levels recovered, next year’s price would be $60-$80 a barrel, he said.

However, if they do not, and the supply-demand equation was not rebalanced, it could bounce back to $100-$110 as the lack of investment in drilling caused a shortfall in production. He talked for the first time of his close bond with the senior management of BP, particularly Bob Dudley, the US-born chief executive who famously fled Russia in fear of his safety during BP’s battle with the oligarch partners of its BP-TNK joint venture. And, speaking after Rosneft’s legal case against EU sanctions was sent from the High Court in London to the European Court of Justice, he declared: “We are fighting: the knot will be untied.” Mr Sechin said Rosneft was prepared for a long haul in its battle to overturn the sanctions, placed on both him and the company by the US and EU authorities in response to the Ukraine conflict.

Asked about the prospects of the time extension of the case’s move from London to the European Court, he said wryly: “Instead of three years, the case may be a year and a half… What can you do? I don’t know if the case will be tried on merit and our claims will be justly reviewed and evaluated.” He attacked the European authorities for the way the sanctions were applied in such a way to ban legal appeals against them: “That is what concerns me most… The EU imposed a ban in the European Court on accepting claims from Russian entities and individuals that have been subjected to sanctions. [This] has severe consequences, including consequences for European democracy. Is there an independent rule of law?”

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It doesn’t look good ahaed of tomorrow’s meeting.

Greece And Creditors Continue Talks Ahead Of Eurogroup Meeting (AFP)

Greek and EU officials met for talks Saturday ahead of a high-stakes show-down over Athens’ demands for a radical restructuring of its massive international bailout programme. “It is not a negotiation but an exchange of views to better understand each other’s position,» an EU official said of the final huddle before next week’s crunch meeting. “The talks are ongoing and the institutions are expected to report at the Eurogroup on Monday,» the official said, without giving further details. No discussions are scheduled for Sunday, with the parties reporting back to their governments to complete preparations for Monday’s meeting of the 19 eurozone finance ministers. The consultations began Friday after new hard-left Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras laid out his plans to his peers, including Europes sceptical paymaster German Chancellor Angela Merkel, at his first EU summit.

Merkel recognised the need for compromise on all sides, but also called for Greece to respect the conditions of the bailout – a position that neatly encapsulated both sides in the stand-off. Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said Friday he was «pessimistic» of any quick deal. “The Greeks have sky-high ambitions. The possibilities, given the state of the Greek economy, are limited”, Dijsselbloem said in describing the difficulties in finding common ground. “I don’t know if well get there by Monday,” he added. The EU and the International Monetary Fund bailed Greece out in 2010, and then again in 2012 to the tune of some €240 billion, plus a debt write-down worth more than €100 billion euros.

The rescue may have kept Greece in the eurozone, but it also left Athens with a mountain of debt worth about €315 billion that most analysts do not believe will ever be fully repaid. In return for the bailouts, the then centre-right Greek government agreed to a series of stinging austerity measures, and the much-resented oversight by the EU, IMF and ECB ‘troika to make sure Greece stuck to the terms. Tsipras campaigned and won elections last month on promises to ditch the programme, which he said had wrecked the economy, not helped it, and sent the jobless rate soaring. In a more conciliatory move, however, Athens also said it could live with 70% of the current programme, but that Greece must be allowed leeway on the rest so it can do more to boost the economy, including through additional spending.

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Sure.

Do Derivatives Make The World Safer? (Guillaume Vuillemey)

The interest rate derivatives market is the largest market in the world, with an aggregate notional exposure of 563 trillion USD as of June 2014. Its fast growth over the past 15 years (shown in Figure 1) has raised concerns from policymakers. Currently, no theory provides guidance regarding the effect of the use of derivatives on other decisions by financial intermediaries. In a recent paper, I develop a framework to show how hedging using interest rate derivatives affects:

• Risk management in banking,
• The response of bank lending (both to interest rate and real shocks), and
• The occurrence of bank defaults.

What are interest rate derivatives? Interest rate derivatives are contracts by which two parties commit to exchange future interest rate cash flows, computed as%ages of a given amount – the notional amount. The most popular of these contracts is the interest rate swap, which makes it possible to exchange a fixed rate against a floating rate until the maturity of the contract is reached. Derivative contracts have hedging properties: they make it possible to insure against some future realizations of the short rate, which would otherwise induce losses. One reason why banks are active in the interest rate derivatives market is because most of the cash flows they receive (e.g. loans) or pay (e.g. interbank borrowing) are interest rates whose maturities do not match: they tend to ‘borrow short’ and ‘lend long’. As a consequence of maturity mismatch, changes in interest rates either increase or decrease a bank’s profitability and possibly induce default.

Derivatives and risk management In my framework, hedging is motivated by the existence of financial constraints (as in Froot et al. 1993). Banks aim to manage internal funds so that they have sufficient resources at times profitable lending opportunities arise. A shortage of funds would imply turning to costly external financing sources. Banks optimally engage in risk management either by

• Preserving debt capacity – i.e. by not borrowing up to their collateral constraint and instead keeping cash – or
• Using derivatives to transfer resources to future states where large lending outlays will be optimal.
• My framework features two risks faced by a bank, which give rise to two opposite motives for risk management.

On the liability side, the risk is that the cost of debt financing will be high precisely in states where lending opportunities will be large. This risk gives an incentive to transfer resources from future states where the short rate is low to states where it is high. On the asset side, the risk is that for a given cost of debt financing, the bank will be unable to seize lending opportunities arising from a low short rate, as such states are typically associated with greater optimal lending. This risk gives an incentive to transfer resources from future states where the short rate is high to states where it is low. From the existence of these two opposite forces – which I call respectively the ‘financing’ and the ‘investment’ motives for risk management, – it follows that both pay-fixed and pay-float swaps may be used for hedging. In previous discussions, the fact that banks use pay-float positions – i.e. they get exposed to interest rate spikes – was usually considered a puzzle or as evidence of speculation. I show it is also consistent with genuine hedging.

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CDS are meant to hide losses and wagers.

Derivatives No Longer Used For Hedging But For “Alpha Generation” (Zero Hedge)

Maybe the pervasive “this time is always different” meme has been perpetuated to the point that the market actually believes it, or maybe it’s just old fashioned greed, but whatever the case, market participants (and this means central banks, retail investors, and everyone in between) have an extraordinary inclination towards Einsteinian insanity. Never mind, for instance, that the Fed’s attempts to “smooth out the business cycle” (breaking it in the process) have everywhere and always served only to create bigger and bigger bubbles that have led, invariably, to crashes that are ever more spectacular/devastating – what we need is more intervention by central planners bankers. Forget the fact that throughout the course of human history, minting endless amounts of fiat currency always fails – in the words of new BOJ board member Yutaka Harada, “we just need to print more money.”

And certainly pay no attention (despite the tendency for these types of discrepancies to self-correct) to the divergence between the S&P and trivial things like the U.S. macro picture and/or forward earnings estimates… … the U.S. economy is the cleanest dirty shirt and Jeremy Siegel is probably contemplating Dow 40K as we speak, so just hold your nose and buy.

Given this steadfast refusal to learn from yesterday’s mistakes, it isn’t any wonder that when Citi recently surveyed 43 banks, 29 asset managers, and 31 hedge funds regarding their outlook for the credit derivatives market in 2015, the consensus was that “there seems to be plenty of room and enthusiasm to use derivatives to take leveraged risk.” Phew: for a minute there it looked like leveraged risk taking with derivatives might go the way of the Dodo in the post-crisis world, making Bruno Iksil the last great example of how much fun one can have stomping around in off-the-run CDS indices with depositors’ money.

It’s also comforting to know that among those Citi surveyed, the general consensus was that “…there seems to have been a shift from using derivatives as a hedging tool, to using them more for alpha generation [as] most products are now used more for adding risk and directional views.” So investment professionals and sophisticated market participants are quite eager to take leveraged risk with derivatives with an eye not towards “hedging” (i.e. mitigating risk), but towards “alpha generation” and expressing “directional views” (i.e. gambling). In fact, nearly two-thirds of those surveyed listed either “alpha generation” or “adding risk” as the primary reason for trading single-name and index CDS

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Supply shock.

Goldman Warns Over-Supply Means Oil Prices Will Be Much Lower (Zero Hedge)

Via Goldman Sachs’ Sven Jari Stehn: US Daily: Oil Supply versus Demand: A Market Perspective:
• We use statistical techniques to explore the drivers of the sharp drop in oil prices since last summer. The idea behind our approach is to use the behavior of oil and equity prices to disentangle demand from supply shifts. Intuitively, we would expect that positive demand shocks should push both equity and oil prices up, while positive supply shocks should push equities up and oil prices down.

• Our model suggests that the vast majority of the decline in oil prices until November 2014 was driven by perceptions of improved supply. The continued sell-off in December and January was driven by perceptions of both improving supply and slowing demand. The latest rebound in oil–which started in late January–appears to be driven by a mix of demand and supply.

• Although our approach is subject to a number of caveats, the main conclusion is consistent with our commodities team’s views, who have argued that the decline in oil has been driven by an oversupplied global oil market.

Oil prices have fallen substantially since last summer. Crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for example, fell by about 60% between June and January, before starting to rebound somewhat in February. In today’s comment we use statistical techniques to explore the drivers of these changes in the oil price. The idea behind our approach is to use the behavior of oil and equity prices to disentangle demand from supply shifts. Intuitively, we would expect that positive demand shocks should push both equity and oil prices up, while positive supply shocks should push equities up and oil prices down. We therefore call anything that pushes oil and equities in the same direction a “demand” shock and anything that pushes them in opposite directions a “supply” shock.

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“Libya’s state-run oil company warned that it would shut production at all fields..” No it won’t.

Libya Warns of Complete Oil Shutdown as Attacks Escalate (Bloomberg)

Libya’s state-run oil company warned that it would shut production at all fields if authorities in the divided nation fail to contain an escalation of attacks on facilities that has cut crude output to a year-low. “If these incidents continue, National Oil Corp. will regrettably be forced to stop all operations at all fields in order to preserve the lives” of employees, the company said in a statement on its website. “National Oil Corp. urges the Ministry of Defense and the Petroleum Facilities Guard to take the appropriate measures to protect oil sites.” The North African nation’s oil production was reduced by 180,000 barrels a day after a fire at a pipeline that carries crude to the eastern Hariga port, National Oil spokesman Mohamed Elharari said by phone in Tripoli.

Hariga, near Tobruk, has oil left in storage for exports and the last ship to load there was the Greek-flagged Minerva Zoe, he said. Libya, holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, was producing 350,000 barrels a day in January, Elharari said at the time. The nation may be producing less than 200,000 barrels a day after the pipeline fire. The previous lowest daily average was in March 2014, at 150,000 barrels. A member of OPEC, Libya was producing 1.6 million barrels a day before the 2011 rebellion that ended Muammar Qaddafi’s 23-year rule. National Oil Corp., or NOC as the company is known, has a majority stake in all of Libya’s oil and gas producing ventures. It has a 59% stake in the company that operates Bahi, an oil field that came under attack on Friday, with Marathon Oil, ConocoPhillips and Hess holding the remaining 41%, according to an NOC statement about the attack.

NOC has said it was neutral in the conflict, which is pitting the Islamist-backed government that captured Tripoli last year against the internationally-recognized government that fled to the eastern region. The Petroleum Facilities Guard is loyal to the internationally-recognized administration of Abdullah al-Thinni. The bombing of the pipeline followed attacks on fields in central Libya that Ali al-Hasy, a spokesman for the guards, blames on a local branch of Islamic State, the militants that have proclaimed a caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria and is being fought by a U.S.-led coalition of Arab and Western nations.

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“Americans will have to rely more heavily on the piggy bank.” Whatever that means. And that’s still provided they have one.

Start Saving Those Pennies Now, Robert Shiller Warns Investors (CNBC)

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller has a grim message for investors: Save up, because in the years ahead, assets aren’t going to give you the type of returns that you’ve become accustomed to. In his third edition of “Irrational Exuberance,” which will drop later this month, the Yale professor of economics warns about high prices for stocks and bonds alike. “Don’t use your usual assumptions about returns going forward.” Shiller recommended to investors in a Thursday interview on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” He says that stock valuations look rich.

In fact, Shiller’s favorite valuation measure, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which compares current prices to the prior 10 years’ worth of earnings) is “higher than ever before except for the times around 1929, 2000, and 2008, all major market peaks,” he writes in his new preface to the third edition. “It’s very hard to predict turning points in markets,” Shiller said on Thursday. His CAPE measure of the S&P 500 “could keep going up. … But it’s definitely high. By historical standards, it’s up there.” Meanwhile, Shiller said that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, “can’t keep trending down” and “could [reach] a major turning point in coming years.” It’s no surprise, then, that Shiller expects little in the way of asset returns—meaning Americans will have to rely more heavily on the piggy bank.

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That’ll be the day.

UK Tories Told To Shun Wealthy Donors To Avoid Scandal (Guardian)

The Conservative party needs to break its dependence on millionaires, the former Tory chancellor Ken Clarke has told the Observer, amid a growing furore over the tax affairs of the party’s donors. After a week of some of the most intense fighting between the parties in recent years, Clarke said the Conservatives would be strengthened by loosening the hold of rich men on their financial survival. He called on David Cameron to cap political donations and increase state funding of political parties to put an end to damaging scandals and rows. The Conservatives have been rocked in the past week by a potentially toxic combination of allegations of tax evasion by clients of the HSBC bank, whose chairman, Lord Green, became a Tory minister; tax avoidance by party donors; and leaked details of the secretive black and white fundraising ball.

On Saturday, Green stepped down from a financial services lobby group, TheCityUK’s advisory council, in order to avoid “damaging the effectiveness” of its efforts “in promoting good governance”. Clarke said that while he believed the current row over donors and tax avoidance was “artificial and bogus”, such episodic rows over the funding of political parties were feeding into the growing cynicism and distrust of the British political system. He defended Cameron’s decision to attend the fundraising black and white ball in Mayfair, where guests included a series of controversial donors, but said the time had come for the prime minister “to put on his tin hat” and secure further state funding of parties, whatever the short-term public outcry.

Clarke, who was a cabinet minister until last July, said: “I think the Conservative party will be strengthened if it is less dependent on having to raise money from wealthy individuals. But there is no way any leader can avoid raising funds from large gatherings of that kind. “What happens is that the Conservatives attack the Labour party for being ever more dependent on rather unrepresentative leftwing trade union leaders, and the Labour party spends all its time attacking the Conservative party for being dependent on rather unrepresentative wealthy businessmen. In a way both criticisms are true. And the media sends both up. “The solution is for the party leaders to get together to agree, put on their tin hats and move to a more sensible and ultimately more defensible system.”

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Remarkable.

New York’s Streets Are Suddenly Safer. Why? (Guardian)

It is 15 below zero – using what US meteorologists call RealFeel temperature – in Brooklyn’s notorious Marcy Projects. The cold has driven the drug dealers off the streets; police, who have taken to patrolling in fours since two officers were gunned down in a police car last December, are scarce; and at the Ponce Funeral Home the trade is all of the natural-causes kind. Although there was an attempted murder in Queens on Friday that left a man on life-support, New York has enjoyed an almost unprecedented 12-day streak without a homicide. While many pointed to the weather, the embattled New York mayor, Bill de Blasio, sought to improve his strained relationship with the police department, attributing the lull to its hard work.

After months dominated by allegations that US law enforcement is reckless in the use of deadly force, especially when it comes to African-American men, there’s a new criminal-justice narrative: US crime rates are falling, often dramatically, even as incarceration rates begin to level off. The changes are apparent even in Marcy Projects, the neighborhood made famous by homeboy Shawn Carter, aka Jay-Z, who used to describe it in songs such as Murda Marcyville. “Thirty-some odd years ago I’d find dead people on my corner when I came to work,” recalls a community guard who gave her name only as Deborah. In 1990 there were 71 murders here; in 2012 there was just one. “It’s calmed down a lot. Mostly that’s ’cause of the police. They’re more present now.”

The fall in crime in this part of the Bedford-Stuyvesant district is mirrored across the metropolis. In 2014 there were 333 murders in New York City, half the number committed in 2000 and a quarter of the 1,384 recorded in 1985. While crime statistics are difficult to interpret – violent crimes such as rape and assault have not reduced so markedly – the trend overall is repeated across the US. From its peak in 1991, violent crime is down 51%; property crime 4% lower; and murder down 54%. During that same time, incarceration nearly doubled. The US prison population now stands at 2.4 million – up 800% since 1980 – or roughly a quarter of the world’s total. The cost? About $80bn a year. The overall cost of the US criminal justice system is placed at $240bn, or about half of the federal deficit.

But according to What Caused the Crime Decline?, a study published last week by the Brennan centre for justice at New York University school of law, there is no definitive link between falling crime and mass incarceration. The finding runs counter to previous studies claiming that incarceration accounts for as much as a third of the fall in crime. Once violent criminals were taken off the streets in the 1990s, the study claims, an additional 1.1 million low-level or non-violent offenders were jailed without any further benefit. “The rate of incarceration has passed even the point of diminishing returns and now makes no effective difference,” said Oliver Roeder, one of the study’s three authors.

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“This whole thing is just another big experiment on humans for no good reason..”

GMO Apples Win Approval For Sale In US (Reuters)

US regulators have approved what would be the first commercialised biotech apples, rejecting efforts by the organic industry and other GMO critics to block the new fruit. The US Department of Agriculture’s animal and plant health authority, Aphis, approved two genetically engineered apple varieties designed to resist browning that have been developed by the Canadian company Okanagan Specialty Fruits. Okanagan plans to market the apples as Arctic Granny and Arctic Golden, and says the apples are identical to their conventional counterparts except the flesh of the fruit will retain a fresh appearance after it is sliced or bruised. The company’s president, Neal Carter, called the USDA approval “a monumental occasion”.

“It is the biggest milestone yet for us and we can’t wait until they’re available for consumers,” he said. Arctic apples would first be available in late 2016 in small quantities but not widely distributed for some years, Carter said. The new Okanagan apples have drawn broad opposition. The Organic Consumers Association (OCA), which petitioned the USDA to deny approval, says the genetic changes that prevent browning could be harmful to human health and pesticide levels on the apples could be excessive. The OCA would pressure food companies and retail outlets not to use the fruit, said its Director Ronnie Cummins. “This whole thing is just another big experiment on humans for no good reason,” he said.

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Those pesky green Germans do it again…

Germany Moves To Legalise Fracking (Guardian)

Germany has proposed a draft law that would allow commercial shale gas fracking at depths of over 3,000 metres, overturning a de facto moratorium that has been in place since the start of the decade. A new six-person expert panel would also be empowered to allow fracks at shallower levels Shale gas industry groups welcomed the proposal for its potential to crack open the German shale gas market, but it has sparked outrage among environmentalists who view it as the thin edge of a fossil fuel wedge. Senior German officials say that the proposal, first mooted in July, is an environmental protection measure, wholly unrelated to energy security concerns which have been intensified by the conflict in Ukraine. “It is important to have a legal framework for hydraulic fracturing as until now there has been no legislation on the subject,” Maria Krautzberger, president of Germany’s federal environment agency (UBA), told the Guardian.

“We have had a voluntary agreement with the big companies that there would be no fracking but if a company like Exxon wanted, they might do it anyway as there is no way to forbid it,” she said. “This is a progressive step forward.” The draft law would only affect hydraulic fracturing for shale oil and tight gas in water protection and spring healing zones. The tight gas industry made up around 3% of German gas production before the moratorium, and, under the new proposals, could resume fracking in the Lower Saxony region where it is concentrated. Commercial fracking for shale gas and coal bed methane would be banned at levels below 3,000 metres, but allowed for exploration purposes at shallower levels, subject to the assessment of the expert panel.

Environmentalists, however, were alarmed that half of the experts belong to institutions that signed the Hanover Declaration, calling for increased exploration of shale gas in Germany as a way of increasing energy security. “It is clear what these people are going to say,” José Bové, the French Green MEP, told the Guardian. “The panel is not going to be independent, but exactly what the companies are looking for. You don’t need a panel to tell you that shale gas is dangerous. We can see the problems with water pollution, earthquakes and methane emissions. We need people to protest about it before the exploration begins.”

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Nobody should ever be allowed to own land in a foreign country. The land belongs to the people.

South Africa Bars Foreigners From Owning Land (Reuters)

Foreigners will be barred from owning land in South Africa and no individual will be able to own more than 12,000 hectares, the equivalent of two farms, under legislation currently in the works, President Jacob Zuma said on Saturday. Giving more details of a Land Holdings Bill announced this week in a State of the Nation address, Zuma said foreign individuals and companies would be restricted to long-term leases of between 30 and 50 years. If any South Africans owned more than 12,000 hectares, the excess would be liable for seizure by the state, Zuma said, in comments that are likely to upset the large – and still predominantly white-owned – commercial farming sector. “If any single individual owns above that limit, the government would buy the excess land and redistribute it,” he said in a statement.

However, the law will not be applied retroactively for fear of falling foul of the constitution. The legislation would be sent to cabinet for approval soon, after which it will be opened for public consultation and then submitted parliament, Zuma added. Land remains a highly emotive issue in South Africa, where 300 years of colonial rule and white-minority government have left the vast majority of farmland in the hands of a tiny, mainly white, minority. Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ruling African National Congress has tried to redress the balance through a ‘willing seller, willing buyer’ scheme, but has fallen well short of its target of transferring a third of farmland to blacks by last year.

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“The Koch Empire’s already pledged $889 million to win 2016 election for GOP lobbyists, backed by “No Climate Tax Pledges” that GOP members in Congress must sign to get Koch campaign cash in 2016..”

Planet Earth Is The Titanic, Climate Change The Iceberg (Paul B. Farrell)

Yes, the world is sinking. And the band keeps playing: On the Titanic, first violinist, Big Oil’s Koch Empire. For them capitalism is the solution to everything. Second chair, world’s moral authority, Pope Francis warning that capitalism is the “root cause of the world’s problems.” No harmony. And playing a mean solo flute, Mother Nature, she doesn’t care what the Kochs do, nor what Francis says. Abandon ship? Surrender to the Koch-GOP siren song? Maybe. Pope Francis’s tune is not persuasive enough to win the fight for climate change. True, the pope is the world’s moral authority. But morality — doing what’s right — will never trump the Koch Bros $100 billion bankroll in time to avoid the icebergs we’re all denying. The Koch Empire’s already pledged $889 million to win 2016 election for GOP lobbyists, backed by “No Climate Tax Pledges” that GOP members in Congress must sign to get Koch campaign cash in 2016. They’ve got a winning hand.

Yes, money always trumps morality in today’s raging capitalist society. Yes, your democracy really is for sale to the highest bidder. And yes, everyone has a price … especially senators. But can’t Pope Francis, the world’s moral conscience, lead a resistance movement against Big Oil and the Koch Empire? Save the world? True, he does lead a powerful army of 1.2 billion Catholics worldwide … and, yes, he will soon issue a historic warning in his papal encyclical, making official his position that climate change and global warming are indeed manmade … that capitalism is the root cause of all the world’s deteriorating physical and social environment … that humans are killing their planet.

In recent months the pope has travelled the world warning us capitalism is the enemy of Planet Earth: In capitalism the “worship of the ancient golden calf has returned in a new and ruthless guise in the idolatry of money … lacking a truly human purpose” … our “constant assaults on the natural environment” are “the result of unbridled consumerism” … having “serious consequences for the world economy” … capitalism is morally destructive of the world’s soul and your soul … capitalism will eventually self-destruct the planet and itself.

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“He told several people that Winter would last 6 more weeks, however he failed to disclose that it would consist of mountains of snow!”

Punxsutawney Phil Wanted By Police, Offered Asylum At Ski Resort (ExpressTimes)

Pennsylvania’s most famous forecaster appears to be a controversial figure in New Hampshire, but his supporters are stepping up. The tongue-in-cheek drama appears to have started with a Facebook post Tuesday from police in Merrimack, N.H., saying there is a warrant out for Punxsutawney Phil’s arrest. “We have received several complaints from the public that this little varmint is held up in a hole, warm and toasty,” says the post, which has been shared more than 9,000 times. “He told several people that Winter would last 6 more weeks, however he failed to disclose that it would consist of mountains of snow!”

Merrimack Police Chief Mark Doyle said the joke campaign to get Phil was an attempt to lighten the mood after a series of snowstorms that have buried New England, according to The Associated Press. Others are playing along. Gunstock Mountain Resort in Gilford, N.H., issued a news release Saturday offering asylum to Phil, saying the resort is “thrilled” with snowy conditions it describes as “some of the best snow New Hampshire has seen in years.” “We are concerned with the sensationalist attack on one of America’s true winter heroes,” the release says, adding the resort will work with local authorities to secure the groundhog’s safe passage.

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 January 31, 2015  Posted by at 11:15 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  5 Responses »


DPC The Manhattan landmark Flatiron Building under construction 1902

Crude Settles Up 8% At $48.24, Best Day Since June 2012 (Reuters)
OPEC Oil Output Rises In January (Reuters)
The Oil Collapse Isn’t Stopping America’s Investment in Energy (Bloomberg)
BEA Estimates 4th Quarter 2014 US GDP Growth To Be 2.64% (CMI)
Fed’s Bullard Warns of Asset Bubble Risk If Rates Are Kept Too Low (Bloomberg)
Investors Wrong Not to Expect Mid-Year Rate Rise: Bullard (Bloomberg)
Varoufakis, Keynes and the ‘Global Surplus Recycling Mechanism’ (Guardian)
No ‘Grexit’ From Euro, EU’s Moscovici Vows (BBC)
Eurozone Breakup Threat Reaches All-time High (Telegraph)
Greek Finance Minister Vows To Shun Officials From Troika (Guardian)
Germany Warns Greece Against Isolation as Tsipras Shunned (Bloomberg)
Greek Cleaners Show Dichotomy of Tsipras as Markets Tumble (Bloomberg)
Greece: Will Syriza Or Its Creditors Blink First?
German Anti-Euro Party: ‘Pigs Might Fly; Greece Might Pay Its Debt To EU’ (RT)
Greece Should Ice The Troika! (StealthFlation)
The Middle-Class Voters Who Can’t Resist Karl Marx (BBC)
Italy Vote: Why Keep It Simple When You Can Complicate It (Bloomberg)
Brazil’s Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse (Zero Hedge)
Ukraine Chief Of Staff Admits No Russian Troops Involved in Donbass Battle (RT)
DuPont Employees Pay Price for Monsanto’s Growth in Seed Sales (Bloomberg)
China’s Rules Smother GMOs, Researcher Says (WSJ)
Scientific Consensus On GMO Safety Stronger Than For Global Warming (GLP)

Grown men in shorts.

Crude Settles Up 8% At $48.24, Best Day Since June 2012 (Reuters)

Crude oil settled up 8%, or $3.71, at $48.24 on Friday, its best day since June 2012, after data showed U.S. drillers were slamming the brakes on the shale drilling boom. The commodity still ended the month lower, for a seven-month decline. Oil spiked $3 heading into the close on Friday as products were set to expire on the last day of the month and after oil companies made further cuts to capital expenditures and took more rigs offline. Traders told CNBC they were acting on buy signals that technicals were showing heading into the weekend. The number of U.S. rigs in operation fell by another 94 in the past week through Friday, while Canadian producers took 11 rigs offline, oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported on Friday. Rig counts have been steadily falling as the price of crude collapses. The rig count drop was the most since 1987. With drillers having idled about 24% of their oil drilling rigs since the summer, some traders may be betting that an anticipated slowdown in U.S. oil production is nearer than expected.

Two weeks of relatively stable oil prices have helped shift sentiment after months of decline, setting the stage for the violent rebound on Friday afternoon. Short traders raced to cover their positions on fears that the rout was nearing its end. “The rig count number sparked the rally late,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Some traders were not convinced that the selloff in oil, which has taken Brent down from a June high above $115 a barrel, was over. “There was a lot of short-covering before the month end from people wanting to take profit from the $40-odd lows, so it’s not surprising that we rallied, said Tariq Zahir at Tyche Capital Advisors. ”But this doesn’t change the fundamental outlook in oil. We are still about 2 million barrels oversupplied.”

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“Supply from OPEC has averaged 30.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up from a revised 30.24 million bpd in December,”

OPEC Oil Output Rises In January (Reuters)

OPEC’s oil supply has risen this month due to more Angolan exports and steady to higher output in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers, a Reuters survey showed, a sign key members are standing firm in refusing to prop up prices. OPEC at a November meeting decided to focus on market share rather than cutting output, despite concerns from members such as Iran and Venezuela about falling oil revenue. Supply from OPEC has averaged 30.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up from a revised 30.24 million bpd in December, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants. At the Nov. 27 meeting, OPEC retained its output target of 30 million bpd, sending oil prices to a four-year low close to $71 a barrel. Crude since fell to a near six-year low of $45.19 on Jan. 13 and was trading above $49 on Friday.

OPEC Secretary General Abdulla al-Badri, speaking in London on Monday, defended the no-cut strategy and said prices may have reached a floor, despite oversupply. Other OPEC delegates have since echoed this message. “Prices are stabilising,” said a delegate from a Gulf producer. “But the world economy is not very strong and stocks are too high.” The largest boost this month has come from Angola, which pumped 1.80 million bpd and exported about 57 cargoes, up 160,000 bpd from December. Output would have been higher without some cargo delays, including of new crude Sangos. OPEC’s other West African producer, Nigeria, also managed to boost exports, the survey showed, although the increase was restrained by outages of the Forcados and Nembe Creek pipelines. Smaller increases have come from Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

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“So if the epic slump in crude isn’t enough to stop American oil companies, what might?”

The Oil Collapse Isn’t Stopping America’s Investment in Energy (Bloomberg)

After an epic collapse in crude prices, U.S. oil companies still aren’t blinking. Investment in drilling rigs and wells actually improved in the closing months of 2014. Outlays for rigs and wells climbed at an 8.9% pace in the fourth quarter after an 8.3% increase from July through September, today’s Commerce Department report on gross domestic product showed. Those figures are a slight slowdown from numbers in the first half of 2014, but are definitely no halt. That increase is even more impressive when you look at what happened to equipment spending across all businesses in the world’s largest economy.

That fell by the most since the recession, taking some of the luster off the consumer-driven economy. Spending on oilfield machinery is more difficult to decipher. That’s because the figures are included in the “other equipment” category in the government’s breakdown of non-residential investment. The Commerce Department lumps together equipment such as drill pipes and bits with agriculture, construction and service-industry machinery. Purchases of “other equipment” fell at a 0.1% rate in fourth quarter after a decline of 4.1% in the previous three months – not exactly a big hit to GDP. So if the epic slump in crude isn’t enough to stop American oil companies, what might?

Prices could slide even further, or fail to rebound the way the industry’s executives are surely hoping. Crude has already dropped another 14% since the end of last year. “Business investment is the trickiest” component of GDP to predict right now, said Aneta Markowska, Societe Generale’s chief economist. “Obviously the low oil prices are likely to depress investment among energy producers,” she said. “This is at least partly offset by a better outlook for investment from those non-energy producing companies,” she said. In the end, “I wouldn’t completely throw in the towel on business investment on the back of this energy story – it’s very mixed.”

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5% was just a blip.

BEA Estimates 4th Quarter 2014 US GDP Growth To Be 2.64% (CMI)

In their first estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.64% annualized rate, down -2.32% from the much celebrated +4.96% growth rate reported for the prior quarter. The growth was nearly halved by substantial changes in a number of its components: imports took -1.55% from the quarter’s growth rate, exports pulled another -0.24% from the number, contracting governmental spending took another -1.20% off the top, and plunging fixed investment removed yet another -0.84% from the headline. Inventories and consumer spending were the only bright spots. Inventory growth added +0.85% to the headline. Increased spending on goods added +0.14% to the headline number, while spending on household services added 0.52% to the headline. The increased consumer spending came from both improved disposable income and reduced savings.

Households had an additional $279 in real annualized per capita disposable income (now reported to be $37,775 per annum). This is still down $94 per year from the 4th quarter of 2012. The household savings rate dropped another -0.1% for the quarter to 4.6%. As mentioned last quarter, plunging energy prices are likely playing havoc with many of the numbers in this report. US “at the pump” gasoline prices fell 33% quarter-to-quarter – pushing all consumer oriented inflation indexes firmly into negative territory. During the fourth quarter (i.e., from October through December) the seasonally adjusted CPI-U index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was solidly dis-inflationary at a -2.47% (annualized) rate, and the price index reported by the Billion Prices Project (BPP – which arguably more fully reflected the “at the pump” impact on American households) was significantly more dis-inflationary, dropping a full -2.14% quarter-to-quarter (an astounding -8.30% annualized rate during the quarter).

Yet for this report the BEA still assumed a very mildly dis-inflationary annualized deflator of only -0.09%. The disparity between the BEA’s and the BLS’s “deflators” raises some serious consistency issues. Over reported inflation (or under reported dis-inflation) will result in a more pessimistic growth data, and if the BEA’s “nominal” numbers were corrected for inflation using the line-item appropriate BLS CPI-U and PPI indexes, the economy would be reported to be growing at an implausibly high 7.17% annualized rate. Clearly the BEA’s deflator is troubling, but using the more reasonable deflators from the BLS generates nonsensical growth rates when applied to the BEA’s nominal data – suggesting that the BEA’s initial nominal data may be more overstated (or guesstimated) than reasonable deflators can handle.

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“I don’t think there’s anything on the scale of the housing bubble or the Internet bubble right now. The only candidate is bonds, government debt and other kinds of debt,” he said. “I’m not counting that, I guess, because that’s us..”

Fed’s Bullard Warns of Asset Bubble Risk If Rates Are Kept Too Low (Bloomberg)

U.S. central bankers risk inflating another asset-price bubble if they keep interest rates too low as unemployment falls, said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Bullard said the “die is already cast” for the jobless rate to drop below the Federal Open Market Committee’s estimate for full employment of 5.2% to 5.5% regardless whether the Fed raises rates. “You are already talking about a policy that is going to be slow moving over the next couple of years, against an economy that is going to run hot,” Bullard said in an interview Friday in New York. William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, last year said the economy may need to run “a little hot” to lift inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Bullard, despite his wariness, said didn’t see any evidence of an obvious bubble at the moment.

“I don’t think there’s anything on the scale of the housing bubble or the Internet bubble right now. The only candidate is bonds, government debt and other kinds of debt,” he said. “I’m not counting that, I guess, because that’s us,” he said, referring to the Fed’s own-bond buying campaign that more than quadrupled its balance sheet to $4.5 trillion. The Fed ended purchases in October. The last two times unemployment dove below economists’ estimates of full employment was in the late 1990s and in the mid-2000s. The first occasion became associated with very high valuations in technology stocks, and the second coincided with strongly rising home prices.

Both episodes ended with the bubbles bursting and the U.S. economy in recession, Bullard noted, with the real-estate bust spiraling into a global financial crisis. “The wisdom of going forward here and really pushing hard on this, given the recent history is, I think, one of the elephants in the room about American monetary policy,” he said. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in April 2000 and to 4.4% in May 2007. It was 5.6% in December of last year, and economists forecast a report next week will show it slid to 5.5% in January. Bullard argued for the central bank to raise interest rates from near zero as lower oil prices provide a strong boost to the economy this year.

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“Markets should take it at face value”

Investors Wrong Not to Expect Mid-Year Rate Rise: Bullard (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said investors are wrong to expect the Fed to postpone an interest-rate increase beyond midyear, with the U.S. economy leading global growth and unemployment dropping. “The market has a more dovish view of what the Fed is going to do than the Fed itself,” Bullard said in an interview Friday in New York. “Markets should take it at face value” from the Fed’s rate projections, and it’s “reasonable” to expect an increase in June or July. Unemployment could fall below 5% by the third quarter, he said, adding that both policy makers and private economists have been overly pessimistic in their forecasts for joblessness. The jobless rate was last below 5% in February 2008, when it fell to 4.9%.

The Federal Open Market Committee said two days ago it would be “patient” in its plans to raise rates, which Chair Janet Yellen said in December meant no tightening “for at least the next couple of meetings.” The central bank described the expansion as “solid,” while cautioning that inflation could decline further “in the near term.” The “patient” language could be removed at one of the next two meetings, setting up a discussion on rate increases by midyear, said Bullard, who isn’t a voting member of the FOMC this year. “Zero is not the right number for this economy,” Bullard said in a reference to the benchmark federal funds rate, which has been kept near that level since December 2008. “It is hard to rationalize a zero policy rate” because the economy has “a lot of momentum.”

Investors see only a 15% chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark federal funds rate in June, down from 30% a month ago, according to fed funds futures. The odds that the Fed will have raised rates by December are 55%, down from 58% a month ago. Fed officials expect the benchmark funds rate rise to 1.125% by the end of 2015, according to the median estimate of their quarterly forecasts in December. These will be updated at the FOMC meeting on March 17-18. Bullard said low oil prices and low interest rates are “two important tailwinds” for the U.S. economy. He said the European Central Bank’s decision on Jan. 22 to embark on a €1.1 trillion bond purchase program is also a plus, because it helps to keep borrowing costs low in the U.S. “It’s lower rates that are just coming over to us for free,” he said of the impact of ECB policies on the U.S.

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“The purpose of studying economics is to learn how not to be deceived by economists.”

Varoufakis, Keynes and the ‘Global Surplus Recycling Mechanism’ (Guardian)

Since Syriza’s victory in the Greek elections on Sunday, it is the new Essex-educated finance minister Yanis Varoufakis who has been grabbing most of the headlines. Much of his appeal lies in his iconoclasm: in his 1998 book Foundations of Economics, a kind of bible for the growing alternative economics movement, he cites the British Keynesian Joan Robinson: “The purpose of studying economics is to learn how not to be deceived by economists.” But what can we expect from this reluctant economist and reluctant politician intellectually? Announcing his decision to run for a parliamentary seat on Syriza’s ticket on his personal blog, Varoufakis stressed that he never wanted to run for office, preferring to channel his policy ideas across the political spectrum. But he grew tired of seeing his policies ignored. Above all he wants to draw attention to an idea that was first conceived by one of his major intellectual influences: John Maynard Keynes.

It’s an idea that even ardent Keynsians often neglect; an idea that Keynes dramatically announced to a group of sceptical listeners at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference; an idea that runs diametrically counter to the current policies of Germany’s government. That idea is a global surplus recycling mechanism. In his recent book The Global Minotaur, Varoufakis claims that the notion of a surplus recycling mechanism is simple in theory and revolutionary in its implications. It was first devised by Keynes while working as an unpaid policy adviser to the British Treasury during the early 1940s. The proposal was an outgrowth of Keynes’s frustration with the limits of the gold standard during the 1920s. At that time there was an outflow of gold from Britain to the US to pay for Britain’s trade deficit. Logically the inflow of gold should have expanded the money supply in the US, increasing the competitiveness of UK exports. But the US adopted policies to offset inflationary pressures.

As the economist Marie Christine Duggan has suggested, the harsh lesson for Keynes was that the gold standard was ineffective at forcing creditor nations to increase domestic prices or reinvest their surpluses. Creditor nations were free to hoard as they liked, placing the burden of action on debtor nations who had very little choice but to act in ways that tended to depress their domestic economies. Keynes’s proposal for curbing the problem was to create global rules that would place equal pressure on both creditor and debtor nations to adjust their respective trade imbalances, helping to ease the burden shouldered by debtor nations. He suggested that any nation that failed to ensure its trade surplus did not exceed a particular%age of its trade volume would be charged interest, compelling its currency to appreciate. These interest payments would help to finance the second arm of Keynes’s proposal: the creation of an International Clearing Union. The ICU would act as a sort of automatic “global surplus recycling mechanism,” to use Varoufakis’s term.

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“..a committee built on rotten foundations..”

No ‘Grexit’ From Euro, EU’s Moscovici Vows (BBC)

Greece belongs in the eurozone and the single currency depends on there being no “Grexit”, the EU economic and financial affairs commissioner says. Pierre Moscovici told the BBC’s Hardtalk “we will do everything” to prevent Greece leaving the eurozone. But he said the Greek government had to respect previous commitments. The new finance minister has meanwhile said he will not negotiate bailout terms with the “troika” – the global institutions overseeing Greek debt. The left-wing Syriza party won last weekend’s election on an anti-austerity platform, promising to have half of Greece’s debt written off, and to roll back on deep cuts to jobs, pay and pensions. “We believe that the place of Greece is in the eurozone, the euro needs Greece and that Greece needs and wants to be in the eurozone,” Mr Moscovici, a former French finance minster, said.

He added: “We feel that it’s very important for the stability of the eurozone and for the credibility of the euro that there is no ‘Grexit’. This is why we will do everything that is needed to avoid it.” But the commissioner said that while Europe had to respect the will of the Greek people, following last Sunday’s election that swept Syriza to power, the commitments made by the previous Greek government also had to be taken into account. “We must address these issues in a quiet, peaceful and serene way. This [new] government has to say exactly what it intends to do,” Mr Moscovici said. After meeting with the head of eurozone group of finance ministers, the new Greek finance minister said he would not work with the troika – the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund – calling them “a committee built on rotten foundations”.

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Yeah, why not bring in the bookies?

Eurozone Breakup Threat Reaches All-time High (Telegraph)

The formation of a new left wing Greek government has elevated the risks of a eurozone breakup to levels “significantly higher than at any point in 2012”, according to Barclays. 2012 is widely viewed as the height of the eurozone crisis. A cocktail of political populism across the continent and the prospect of a deflationary spiral has now elevated the risks of a breakup even higher in 2015. “The risks have also risen as the periphery, especially Spain, is aligning itself with the views of several countries in the core of granting few concessions to Greece on a new programme,” Francois Cabau of Barclays said. Syriza leaders view the burden of debt imposed on Greek shoulders as far too heavy to pay, and have sought some form of relief. They will clash with the so-called “troika” – the EU, IMF, and ECB – on the matter. Jan von Gerich, a strategist at Nordea, has described the coming confrontation as an “unstoppable force meeting an immovable object”.

The new government has implemented new policies in a matter of days that run contrary to the structural reforms they have been required to implement. Measures have included an increase of the minimum wage and the cancellation of privatisation plans for a power company and ports. “Greece has very tough negotiations ahead,” Mr Von Gerich said. “If Syriza is seen to be able to change the terms of Greece’s adjustment programmes, the spill-over effects could be sizeable in many other countries, which would add to euro area political risks.” If neither party is willing to blink, then a ‘Grexit’ may result, which economists fear could add momentum to populist parties in other eurozone states. Bookmaker Paddy Power offers 6/4 odds on a Greek exit by the end of 2016.

“The fear is that [left wing] Podemos, polling first in Spain, would get a boost if Syriza is able to negotiate easier policy conditionality for Greece,” Mr Cabau continued. He said that a hypothetical exit is “likely to imply increased volatility in peripheral risk assets”. Greek stocks have suffered a torrid week in the aftermath of Syriza’s stunning victory on Sunday. Banking sector shares were some of the most exposed, as political uncertainty knocked €8bn (£6bn) off their value in three days. There was some respite for the sector on Thursday, as bank stocks rebounded by 12.9pc after comments from Daniele Nouy, a European Central Bank official. She attempted to downplay concerns that banks would be unable to survive the current turbulence in financial markets. “They will go through this crisis like they went through the previous ones,” she said.

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“..the logic of austerity had been repudiated by voters when the far-left Syriza party stormed to victory..”

Greek Finance Minister Vows To Shun Officials From Troika (Guardian)

The battle lines between Greece and its creditors were drawn in Athens as the Greek finance minister announced that the new government would refuse to engage with representatives of the country’s hated troika of lenders. Standing his ground after talks in the capital with Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the eurogroup of EU finance ministers, Yanis Varoufakis said Greece would not pursue further negotiations with the body of technocrats that has regularly descended on the country to monitor its economy. Nor would it be rowing back on election-winning pledges by asking for an extension to its €240bn (£180bn) bailout programme. “This platform enabled us to win the confidence of the Greek people,” Varoufakis said, insisting that the logic of austerity had been repudiated by voters when the far-left Syriza party stormed to victory in Sunday’s election. Greece has lost more than a quarter of its GDP, the worst slump in modern times, as a result of consecutive waves of budget cuts and tax rises enforced at the behest of creditors.

Varoufakis and the new Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, who also met Dijsselbloem on Friday, are adamant that the government will deal only with individual institutions and on a minister-to-minister basis within the EU. They have vowed to shun auditors appointed by the troika of the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. “Our first action as a government will not be to reject the rationale of questioning this programme through a request to extend it,” quipped Varoufakis. “We respect institutions but we don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” he said, referring to auditors who run the rule over Greece’s books on behalf of the three lenders. An internationally renowned economist, Varoufakis has been an outspoken critic of the austerity measures demanded in exchange for the aid that has bolstered Greece since its economic meltdown.

But on Friday the eurogroup president also held his ground. Visibly tense, Dijsselbloem – the Dutch finance minister – said it was imperative that Athens did not lose the headway that had been achieved. He reiterated that the creditor group expected Greece to honour the terms of its existing bailout accords. “I realise the Greek people have gone through a lot. However, a lot of progress has been made and it is important not to lose that progress,” he said. [..] “It is of utmost importance that Greece remains on the path of economic recovery. Taking unilateral steps or ignoring previous agreements is not the way forward.” Dijsselbloem ruled out an international conference being held to discuss ways of reducting Greece’s €320bn euro debt pile, saying the Eurogroup of euro area finance ministers “is that conference”.

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“Varoufakis plans to visit London, Paris and Rome next week for talks, according to a ministry statement that didn’t list Berlin on his itinerary.”

Germany Warns Greece Against Isolation as Tsipras Shunned (Bloomberg)

Greece’s government risks isolation in the European Union by threatening to break ranks on sanctions against Russia and ditch its bailout deal, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s minister for European affairs said. “Greece is firmly anchored in the mainstream of the European Union,” Michael Roth, who’s also deputy foreign minister, said in an interview. “I can only hope that this is where it wants to stay.” Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government, sworn in Tuesday, is putting Greece’s financial lifeline at risk, the German Finance Ministry said. Greece’s bailout terms mean his government needs to undertake further reforms by the end of February. Extending the deadline would only make sense if Tsipras showed willingness to implement agreed reforms, and “the announcements from Athens go in the opposite direction,” ministry spokesman Martin Jaeger said Friday.

The warnings reflect Merkel’s tactic of waiting Tsipras out as he mounts a full-court challenge to German-led austerity in his first week in office. It also shows her refusal to engage in a public shouting match over his demands as he portrays her as the main source of Greece’s woes. Insisting that Tsipras has to deliver on reforms unites Merkel’s Christian Democrats and Roth’s Social Democrats, her junior coalition partner. Merkel told a closed meeting of her bloc’s lawmakers in Berlin on Tuesday that it’s up to Tsipras to make the first move, according to a party official. She said his government has to make clear it’s committed to the terms of the aid program, the official said. Merkel has no immediate plans to meet Tsipras one-on-one, German government spokeswoman Christiane Wirtz said Friday.

“We have to wait and see which offers of dialogue we get from the Greek government, what their ideas are,” she told reporters in Berlin. “You have to ask Mr. Tsipras why he isn’t approaching us for an invitation to Berlin.” Greece isn’t negotiating with Germany but with the EU as a whole, and the German Finance Ministry’s views “are known,” government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis said in Athens. Greeks voted on Sunday “to exit the dead end of toxic austerity,” he said. “The Greek government will continue negotiations to find a common, beneficial solution.” Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis plans to visit London, Paris and Rome next week for talks, according to a ministry statement that didn’t list Berlin on his itinerary.

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They fired external financial advisors to hire back their cleaners. Kudos.

Greek Cleaners Show Dichotomy of Tsipras as Markets Tumble (Bloomberg)

On a sunny Wednesday morning in Athens, two days after Alexis Tsipras became Greek prime minister, workmen dismantled the barricades that had protected the Parliament and its ceremonial guards for three years from angry protesters. The riot bus stationed by the side of the building in Syntagma Square was gone. Cleaners camped outside the Finance Ministry to protest the loss of their jobs embraced and cried after hearing they had been reinstated. “Not even 30-year-olds can get jobs nowadays, much less a 58-year-old grandmother like me,” said Evangelia Alexaki, who picketed the ministry for months to get back her job cleaning tax offices on the island of Corfu.

As financial markets took the opposite view of a government promising to end austerity and restore the country’s dignity, Greeks at least were certain of one thing: They had a 40-year-old leader who had won a decisive mandate to pursue something different, from tossing out the old political order to taking on the euro region and its bailout agreements. By midday on Wednesday, as Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis handed over the reins to his successor, Yanis Varoufakis, dark clouds hovered over the Parliament. Some said it was a bad omen for Tsipras who had promised in his victory speech to raise the sun above Greece again. Others disagreed. “When you’ve been through snow and heat, a little rain isn’t going to hurt you,” Alexaki said.

In the five years since the government of George Papandreou revealed deficit figures four times those allowed for countries using the euro, Greece’s economy has shrunk by a quarter, more than a million people joined the search for employment, and pensions, wages and jobs were cut so the country could receive a €240 billion bailout. That all paved the way for Syriza, Tsipras’s party, to come to power on Jan. 25 on a promise to seek get rid of more of Greece’s debt, currently about €320 billion. The day after the election, Tsipras confounded skeptics by forming a government by midday, teaming with what appeared to be his party’s alter-ego, the conservative Independent Greeks. Then his newly minted ministers made statements. The Athens General Index sank to its lowest level since 2012, the year that Greece’s status as a euro member was last in question, before recouping some of the loss later this week. The yield on three-year bonds surged to more than 17% and was at 16.82% on Friday.

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“The cash flow of Greek pension funds fell from €2.155 billion in November 2013 to just €435 million in November 2014..”

Greece: Will Syriza Or Its Creditors Blink First?

The first financial tests of Syriza’s audacious new policies for Greece loom – as it is still unclear who will concede ground on its debt pile first. Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek Prime Minister, may end up banging his head off a wall of opposition from Germany, the biggest single contributor to Greece’s bailout, who is staunchly against any debt relief for the struggling country. On Friday, Reuters cited a source saying that Greece planned to refuse to allow a planned visit from its bailout supervisors in the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The country’s finance minister announced during the day that Greece would not be seeking to extend its bailout program. The biggest bones of contention will be whether Greece can secure a nominal debt haircut, or even some further aid, and the halting of its privatization program, imposed by the troika of international bodies which oversee its bailout, agreed upon a few years ago.

The halting of the privatization program was seen as an early signal of intent by Tsipras, and caused shares of Greek banks to plummet this week. On Friday, the country’s new energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, told Reuters that the government would cancel plans to sell a state-owned natural gas utility. This came after the sale of the lucrative Port of Piraeus, as well as shares in Greece’s biggest refinery, Hellenic Petroleum, were scrapped. “These announcements (on privatization) will satisfy the unions but scare away new investors,” Miranda Xafa, CIGI senior scholar and chief executive of E.F. Consulting, warned CNBC. If a deal is not reached soon, the consequences for ordinary Greeks could be severe. Giorgos Romanias, an economist from Syriza’s right-wing coalition partner Independent Greeks, who is Greece’s new secretary for social security, said on television Thursday that pension payments could be “a little tight” in March.

Demographics are not in Greece’s favor. As a result of the country’s poor economic situation, pensioners have often supported unemployed children and grandchildren, as well as themselves – so any threats to their payments will have a wide-ranging impact. More Greeks were either unemployed or drawing a pension than in employment in 2012 and 2013, according to government statistics. And as the crisis has deepened, the birth rate has fallen, meaning that there will be even fewer young tax-paying workers to support an aging population over the next few decades. The cash flow of Greek pension funds fell from €2.155 billion in November 2013 to just €435 million in November 2014, according to figures from the Greek government, flagged by ekathimerini.com.

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“The only position they have – to renegotiate.”

German Anti-Euro Party: ‘Pigs Might Fly; Greece Might Pay Its Debt To EU’ (RT)

Greece will inevitably get a debt haircut as it’s not able to cope with the €240 billion bailout loan given by the EU, said Hugh Bronson from the Alternative for Germany party. No national structure is able to cope with that amount of debt, he added. Greece refused to back the EU’s statement on Ukraine on Tuesday. Following the move, Athens was accused by the EU of diverting from the block’s official stance on that issue. European Parliament President Martin Schulz said that he “was appalled to see Greece abandon the joint position of the EU.” On Thursday, EU foreign ministers voted to extend the anti-Russian sanctions over the situation in Ukraine till September.

RT: Greece wants a chunk of its debt cancelled, but would that be fair given that billions of taxpayers’ money has been sent there, particularly from your country?
Hugh Bronson: I believe [German Finance Minister] Wolfgang Schauble and the Troika, and everyone else involved have no chance but to negotiate a new deal with Mr. [Alexis] Tsipras. There will be a haircut, there is no question about it, and the only question is when. If you look at Greece and just the figures, you have a country of 11.5 million people, who managed a GDP of €208 billion in 2013. They are burdened with a national debt of 175%. That country was given a bailout loan totaling €240 billion. No national structure is able to cope with that amount of debt. This money is a write-off. Pigs might fly; we can say good-bye to this loan, there’s no question about this.

RT: Greece with a new government doesn’t want to follow EU policy on sanctions anymore. Where do you stand with that fact?
HB: I believe Greece right now has much more serious problems than joining in on sanctions, which are very questionable. They are looking at rebuilding their economy. They want to regain their competitive advantage in the global market. That is the number one priority. Also the main party [which is] in power right now, Syriza, certainly will look twice before it agrees on sanctions against Russia. First of all, they have to deal with their own national problems before they join in any big mashes on an international level.

RT: You are talking about a haircut and the fact that they can’t pay off this money because they simply don’t have it. However, EC President Jean-Claude Juncker has ruled out forgiving Greece’s debt. What do you make of that?
HB: Of course he is going to say that. What else is he going to say? But on the other hand, there are other serious people, serious experts. Take Philippe Legrain, the former economic adviser to the president of the European Commission who quite clearly said [that] Greece needs a haircut. Greece’s debts are unsustainably large. What is the Troika, what is the eurozone is going to do? If Mr. Tsipras and the government simply refuse to continue with the austerity measures, if they, what they’ve started already, if they are rehiring fired public sector workers, and simply ignore the demands from the eurozone.The only position they have – to renegotiate.

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But they already have?!

Greece Should Ice The Troika! (StealthFlation)

Dear Yanis, As an ardent admirer, with the utmost respect for what you have put forward and accomplished to date, I humbly offer my thoughts for your consideration. In my measured estimation, requesting substantive forbearance from the TROIKA on a purely rational and fair minded basis, as you have suggested, in the anticipation of a desirable outcome, is likely a proposition which will disappoint. There obviously exist significant and powerful vested financial interests adamantly opposed to you on the other side of the table, not to mention the even more considerable, and now intensifying, European periphery precedent concerns which are clearly raising the ante.

Your adversaries obtuse position continues to remain implacable for the most determined of self-seeking reasons, and the collateral damage that is Greece, obviously matters far less to them then the well defined and established course they have set for themselves. Remember, they have not done the right thing previously, they don t do the right thing presently, and thus, will likely not do the right thing in the future given the opportunity. Don’t kid yourself, these adversaries are just that, lethal opponents. Considering they were able to stomach the desolation Greece has so desperately endured throughout this period, there should be little to no expectation that they will now suddenly magnanimously change their stripes, simply because it’s been determined by newly elected, more reasoned and humane men, that it’s the right and sound thing to do.

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Misleading headline.

The Middle-Class Voters Who Can’t Resist Karl Marx (BBC)

To give you an idea of how fractured and confused politics is in Greece right now, let me recount a conversation I had with a Greek journalist before the election who was explaining to me why he wasn’t planning to vote Syriza. The reforms imposed upon Greece by the IMF and the EU – while painful – were a necessary step, he said, to shake the country out of a state of moribund corruption. “You probably think I’m really right wing,” he added, apologetically. “I’m not, honestly, I’m very centrist. I love Marx.” In that context, can it be surprising that Syriza has chosen as its coalition partner not the communists – who you’d think might be their natural bedfellows – but a group called Independent Greeks? They’re a centre-right anti-immigration party whose only common ground with Syriza is their shared opposition to the policies of austerity.

On pretty much everything else they disagree. But Syriza needs to move fast, and a fractious coalition is going to be the least of their worries. Greece is about to start negotiations with its creditors. Neither side knows what the rules are anymore. But in essence, here’s the deal – a coalition of radical left groups that believes capitalism is a bad thing now runs a country that owes around €280 billion to institutions that are wedded to the economics of the free market and whose credo is austerity. For each side to come out of this confrontation intact, both will have to compromise. Failing that, one of the two will break. And the EU could be the one to crack. In other European capitals, that thought fills many with dread. But not all.

Athens has become a beacon for thousands of leftists, who are flocking to Greece to be part of what they hope is the beginning of a revolution. On the square – as Polly, Yanis and their fellow Greek voters waited for the new prime minister – a group of 200 Italians unfurled a bright red banner. “L’altra Europa con Tsipras,” it read – “An alternative Europe with Tsipras.” Mingling among them were dozens of young men and women in purple T-shirts emblazoned with the Podemos logo. Podemos is Spain’s answer to Syriza, and they believe their country could be next when they hold general elections later this year. British Marxists, French socialists, they all joined in the celebrations, as Patti Smith’s anthem People Have the Power blared over the loudspeakers.

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“The election of the president of the Republic, just like that of the pope, is totally unpredictable, but unlike a conclave, it’s not even assisted by the Holy Spirit..”

Italy Vote: Why Keep It Simple When You Can Complicate It (Bloomberg)

As Italian lawmakers huddle to elect the country’s next president, observers can’t help but wonder why the process needs to be so complicated. In an exercise that could drag on for days, more than 1,000 lawmakers and regional delegates have gathered in Rome for a special session of parliament reminiscent of a papal conclave, the method by which the Roman Catholic pope is chosen. The voting is by secret ballot and will involve multiple rounds to pick a successor to 89-year-old Giorgio Napolitano. The first three votes need a two-thirds majority, while from the fourth an absolute majority of 505 electors will suffice. The second round of voting is under way in Rome.

“The election of the president of the Republic, just like that of the pope, is totally unpredictable, but unlike a conclave, it’s not even assisted by the Holy Spirit,” Luigi La Spina, editorialist for daily La Stampa, wrote in a tongue-in-cheek commentary earlier this month. Reflecting the contorted nature of some of the steps in the process, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said his party will put in blank ballots for the first three rounds and will only vote for its chosen candidate, Constitutional Court Judge Sergio Mattarella, from round four on Saturday morning. The first of the votes started Thursday. Renzi’s move is dictated by both practical and strategic reasons. He doesn’t have the votes to get his choice through in the first three rounds. He also wants to give the opposition time to decide whether or not to back him. While some presidents, like Francesco Cossiga in 1985, were chosen in a day, the election of Giovanni Leone in 1971 took 23 rounds of voting.

The longest election in post-war history was Giuseppe Saragat’s in 1964, which went on for a record 12 days, took 21 rounds, and included a vote on Christmas day. The voting process itself is elaborate. There are generally only two votes held each day. Each of the 1,009 electors walks down to the floor of the parliament and disappears into one of several wooden voting booths with red curtains set up for the occasion, and mockingly called “catafalques,” in a reference to the supports used to hold coffins up in state funerals. After emerging from the booths, electors put their ballot inside a large wicker urn lined with light green satin known as “the salad bowl. Once the voting is over, the president of the Chamber of Deputies reads out the names on the ballots one by one. At the end, the numbers are tallied and results announced. The secrecy is often an opportunity for parties to test the strength of alliances, and for party leaders like Renzi to see how many loyal supporters he really has among his own.

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Dire straits.

Brazil’s Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse (Zero Hedge)

Back when the BRICs were the source of marginal global growth, the punditry couldn’t stop praising them. However, in the past year, now that China’s housing bubble has burst and its shadow banking system has imploded, those who remember what BRIC actually stood for are about as rare as those who recall what it means for the Fed to hike rates. Which is precisely why nobody in the mainstream financial media has commented on the absolutely abysmal economic update reported earlier today out Brazil. We are happy to do so because today’s data follows up quite well to our article from a month ago “Brazil’s Economy Just Imploded” and as the earlier article on the crashing Brazilian Real hinted, things for the Brazilian economy how gone from imploding to, well, worse because not only did the twin fiscal and current account deficits rise even more, hitting a whopping 11% of GDP – the worst since August 1999, but its government debt soared to 63.4% in 2014, up from 56.7% a year ago, and the highest since at least 2006.

In short – the entire economy is now on the verge of total collapse. This is what happened in a few bullet points:
• The fiscal picture has deteriorated very sharply since 2011 at both the flow (fiscal deficit) and stock (gross public debt) levels. The primary and overall nominal fiscal surpluses at year-end 2014 were at levels last seen in the late 1990s.
• The steady decline of the public sector savings rate is leading to a wider current account deficit despite weaker growth and low investment. In fact, the twin fiscal and current account deficits are now tracking at a combined, very troublesome 10.9% of GDP, the worst picture in 15 years (since August 1999). Repairing the severely unbalanced macro picture would require a deep, structural and permanent fiscal and quasi-fiscal adjustment and a significantly weaker BRL.
• The new economic team faces, among other things, the very significant challenge of repairing the severely deteriorated fiscal picture.
• The steady erosion of the fiscal stance pushed net and gross public debt up. Furthermore, fiscal and quasi-fiscal activism undermined the effectiveness of monetary policy, contributed to keep inflation very high and drove the current account deficit to a very high level despite weak growth.

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“..his statement is a legal fact, which thwarts numerous accusations made by NATO and Western states..”

Ukraine Chief Of Staff Admits No Russian Troops Involved in Donbass Battle (RT)

The Ukraine army’s chief of staff has admitted that Kiev troops are not engaged in combat with Russian units, thereby thwarting all Western allegations of Moscow’s “military invasion,” said Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov. “Yesterday afternoon the Chief of the General Staff – Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – Viktor Muzhenko officially acknowledged during a briefing for foreign military attachées that Russian troops are not involved in the fighting in the country’s southeast,” Konashenkov said on Friday. Given the fact that Muzhenko directly supervises military operations in the southeast, “his statement is a legal fact, which thwarts numerous accusations made by NATO and Western states” concerning Russia’s alleged “military invasion” in Ukraine, the spokesman added.

The Russian Defense Ministry, however, was puzzled by a statement from Muzhenko’s subordinate, Sergey Galushko, made several hours later. According to Galushko – an employee of the Department of Information Technology – Russian troops are located in the so-called “second echelon.” On Thursday, Muzhenko said “the Ukrainian army is not engaged in combat operations against Russian units.” He added, however, that he had information about Russian individuals fighting in the country’s east. He also said the Ukrainian army has everything it needs to drive off armed units in Donbass. His speech was aired by Ukraine’s Channel 5 television, owned by President Petro Poroshenko. Commenting on Muzhenko’s statement, Galushko said that reporters were only allowed at the open part of the meeting. He said that later, during the closed part, the chief of general staff said that Russian units are “in the second tier.”

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The devil has competition.

DuPont Employees Pay Price for Monsanto’s Growth in Seed Sales (Bloomberg)

DuPont’s Pioneer seed unit took it on the chin from Monsanto this year, and now salaried employees are taking a hit in the wallet. DuPont is cutting 2014 bonuses and delaying 2015 salary increases until July 1, according to an internal memo distributed Tuesday, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. The company saved $175 million from reduced bonuses, with half the reduction coming at the expense of agriculture unit employees, DuPont said in a presentation this week. “We set our targets and objectives, and our compensation is tied to the achievement of those targets,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ellen Kullman said in the memo. “It is important to recognize that in 2014, we did not meet all of our targets.”

Operating profit in agriculture, DuPont’s biggest business, fell 5.3% last year as the Pioneer unit lost market share to Monsanto, which increased operating income 14%. Agriculture along with the nutrition unit would be the focus of a smaller DuPont under a plan by activist investor Trian Fund Management to split the company in two. Most of DuPont’s recent success in agriculture has come from selling pesticides, rather than genetically modified seeds, Jeffrey Zekauskas at JPMorgan said in a Jan. 28 note. DuPont trails in developing second- and third-generation seeds engineered to fight insects and tolerate weed killers, helping Monsanto gain share in North America corn and soybeans and Brazil corn, he said.

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We can’t have a precautionary principle, can we?

China’s Rules Smother GMOs, Researcher Says (WSJ)

China’s government has too many rules restricting the adoption of genetically modified food, and that’s ultimately hurting its long-term competitiveness in the sector, according to a leading Chinese researcher on the topic. While Beijing keeps most foreign GMOs out, it is keen to develop its own genetically modified products. However, Huang Dafang, the former director of the country’s Biotechnology Research Institute – and a strong GMO advocate — says that the government is going about it the wrong way. “The approval process for GMOs is too lengthy, there are too many steps,” Mr. Huang, also a professor at the state-backed Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said Wednesday at an industry conference.

Beijing does not allow the commercial production of GMO food, apart from papayas. While the government permits a handful of GMO crops to be imported for animal consumption and, in the case of soybeans, to be processed into edible oil, even that extent of permission has stirred public controversy. So far, agriculture officials have not given any indication on when they might give the green light on GMOs for human consumption in China. Some analysts have suggested that the government is keen to make sure that the China is prepared to master the technology to such an extent that the market won’t be swamped by foreign competition from biotechnology giants like Monsanto and DuPont once Beijing permits domestic commercial production of GMO food.

They say the situation is similar to Beijing’s filtering of the Internet, with the government wanting to ensure its companies can develop in the absence of other competition. The agriculture ministry requires three years of further tests from the time a food item receives biosafety certification. But Mr. Huang pointed out that the government has exceeded even its own time frame on this front. The ministry gave out its first biosafety certifications for a handful of GMO rice and corn strains in 2009, but only renewed the certification late last year after they briefly lapsed.

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At the very least, GMO food hasn’t been around long enough to conclude it’s safe. That ends the discussion. Calling it safe is turning all of mankind into guinea pigs.

Scientific Consensus On GMO Safety Stronger Than For Global Warming (GLP)

A Pew Research Center study on science literacy, undertaken in cooperation with the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), and released on January 29, contains a blockbuster: In sharp contrast to public skepticism about GMOs, 89% of scientists believe genetically modified foods are safe. That overwhelming consensus exceeds the%age of scientists, 88%, who believe global warming is the result of human activity. However, the public appears far more suspicious of scientific claims about GMO safety than they do about the consensus on climate change.

Some 57% of Americans say GM foods are unsafe and a startling 67% do not trust scientists, believing they don’t understand the science behind GMOs. Scientists blame poor reporting by mainstream scientists for the trust and literacy gaps. The survey also contrasts sharply with a statement published earlier this week in a marginal pay-for-play European journal by a group of anti-GMO scientists and activists, including Michael Hansen of the Center for Food Safety, and philosopher Vandana Shiva, claiming, “no scientific consensus on GMO safety.”

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Jan 222015
 
 January 22, 2015  Posted by at 11:59 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  8 Responses »


DPC Steamer Tashmoo leaving wharf in Detroit 1901

Today is The Automatic Earth’s 7th anniversary!

China’s Millions Of Government Workers To Get Huge 60% Pay Raise (Caixin)
Oil Interests Clash Over Price Collapse (Reuters)
Davos Oil Barons Eye $150 Oil As Investment Slump Incubates Future Crunch (AEP)
OPEC Secretary General: Oil To Remain At Low Levels For A Month (CNBC)
BP Boss Bob Dudley: Oil Prices ‘Low For Up To 3 Years’ (BBC)
An Oilfield Turf War for Market Share Is Brewing (Bloomberg)
ECB to Inject Up to €1.1 Trillion Into Economy in Deflation Fight (Bloomberg)
Lagarde On European QE: It’s Already Working (CNBC)
Mario Draghi May Need To Get A Bigger (QE) Boat (CNBC)
Watch Europe Fumble QE (Bloomberg)
German Opt-Out Could Fatally Weaken Eurozone QE (MarketWatch)
Market Will Be Disappointed By Draghi: Dennis Gartman (CNBC)
The Eurozone Can’t Afford A Greek Exit (Guardian)
Populist Parties: Kryptonite For Europe’s Leaders? (CNBC)
Revenge of Disaffected Europe Risks Crisis Sparked in Greece (Bloomberg)
As Central Banks Surprise, Fed May Have To Throw In The Towel (MarketWatch)
Is Canada’s Rate Cut A Race For The Bottom? (CNBC)
Manager ‘Truly Sorry’ For Blowing Up $100 Million Hedge Fund (CNBC)
The Davos Oligarchs Are Right To Fear The World They’ve Made (Guardian)
‘Safer GMOs’ Made By US Scientists (BBC)

Incredible.

China’s Millions Of Government Workers To Get Huge 60% Pay Raise (Caixin)

China’s 39 million civil servants and public workers will get a pay raise of at least 60% of their base salaries as part of pension plan overhaul. Hu Xiaoyi, a vice minister of human resources and social security, said at a press conference Tuesday that government agencies and public institutions have been notified of detailed plans for the salary increase. The pay raise “will make sure that the overall incomes for most of these workers will not decrease after the reform, and some of them could actually earn a bit more,” he said. Hu did not provide details of the plan, which will cover civil servants and public workers, such as teachers and doctors. Copies of documents obtained by Caixin show that top civil servants, including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, will see their monthly base salaries rise to 11,385 yuan from 7,020 yuan (to $1,833 from $1,130), starting in October.

The base salaries of the lowest civil servants would more than double to 1,320 yuan. It is unclear if the plans Caixin saw are final. Data from the State Administration of Civil Service show that China had nearly 7.2 million civil servants and more than 31.5 million public-sector workers employed by institutions such as schools and hospitals at the end of 2013. Those workers do not contribute to their pension fund, meaning taxpayers fund their retirements. A reform announced on Jan. 14 by the State Council, China’s cabinet, will see civil servants and public workers start to contribute to the pension program in October. They will make contributions similar to those private-sectors workers, who have been paying in since the late 1990s. Government agencies and public institutions will pay 20% of their workers’ base salaries to the pension fund on behalf of their employees. The employees will contribute 8% of their salary.

The reform plan says government agencies and public institutions should also introduce an income annuity program for employees. That change will see employers contribute 8% of their employees’ salaries to an annuity fund, while employees pay 4%. The annuity program will provide retirees with another monthly payment. Hu Jiye, a professor in Beijing, said the annuity program and pension scheme will ensure government employees and public workers enjoy the same level of benefits after the reform. That assurance will help the reform make smooth progress, Hu said. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook show that in 2011 the average government pension paid 2,175 yuan a month per retiree. A private-sector pension paid 1,508 per month.

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Forecasts are all over the place.

Oil Interests Clash Over Price Collapse (Reuters)

OPEC defended on Wednesday its decision not to intervene to halt the oil price collapse, shrugging off warnings by top energy firms that the cartel’s policy could lead to a huge supply shortage as investments dry up. The strain the halving of oil prices since June is putting on producers was laid bare when non-member Oman voiced its first direct, public criticism of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ November decision not to cut production but instead to focus on market share. Oil prices have collapsed to below $50 a barrel as a result of a large supply glut, due mostly to a sharp rise in U.S. shale production as well as weaker global demand. The rapid decline has left several smaller oil producing countries reeling and has forced oil companies to slash budgets.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the heads of two of the world’s largest oil firms warned that the decline in investments in future production could lead to a supply shortage and a dramatic price increase. Claudio Descalzi, the head of Italian energy company Eni Spa, said that unless OPEC acts to restore stability in oil prices, these could overshoot to $200 per barrel several years down the line. “What we need is stability… OPEC is like the central bank for oil which must give stability to the oil prices to be able to invest in a regular way,” Descalzi told Reuters Television. He expected prices to stay low for 12-18 months but then start a gradual recovery as U.S. shale oil production began falling. But both OPEC and Saudi Arabia, the group’s largest producer, stuck to their guns.

“If we had cut in November we would have to cut again and again as non-OPEC would be increasing production,” OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said in Davos. “Everyone tells us to cut. But I want to ask you, do we produce at higher cost or lower costs? Let’s produce the lower cost oil first and then produce the higher cost,” Badri said. “Prices will rebound. I saw this 3-4 times in my life.” Al-Badri said the policy was not directed at Russia, Iran or the United States.

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Talking one’s book.

Davos Oil Barons Eye $150 Oil As Investment Slump Incubates Future Crunch (AEP)

Rampant speculation by hedge funds and a rare confluence of short-term shocks have driven the price of oil far below its natural clearing level, coiling the springs for a fresh spike this year that may catch markets badly off-guard once again. “The price will rebound and we will go back to normal very soon,” said Abdullah Al-Badri, OPEC’s veteran secretary-general. “Yes, there is an over-supply, but fundamentals don’t justify this 50pc fall in price.” xperts from across the world – from both the West and the petro-powers – said the slump in fresh investment in 2015 is setting the stage for a much tighter balance of supply and demand, and possibly a fresh oil crunch. Mr Al-Badri said he had been through price swings before but recovery may be swifter today than in past cyclical troughs. “This time we have to be very careful to handle this crisis right. We must keep investing, and not lay off experienced people as we did last time,” he told the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Claudio Descalzi, chief executive of Italy’s oil giant ENI, said the last phase of the price crash from $75 a barrel to around $45 was driven by wild moves on the derivatives markets. Traders with “long” positions effectively capitulated once it became clear that OPEC was not going to cut output to shore up prices. This led to abrupt switch to massive “short” positions instead. “These contracts are 15 or 20 times the physical market,” he said. Mr Descalzi said the roller coaster move in prices is destructive for the oil industry and is leading to investment cuts that may store up serious trouble for the future. “What we need is stability: a central bank for oil. Prices could jump to $150 or even $200 over the next four or five years,” he said. Khalid Al Falih, president of Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil producer, said the mix of financial leverage and the end of quantitative easing had “accelerated” the collapse in prices but the slide has lost touch with reality.

“We’re going to see higher demand this year. Investors are shaken and will now be more careful about committing money to mega-projects in the oil and gas industry,” he said. Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency, said the dramatic crash since June has been caused by a unique set of events. Supply surged by 2m barrels a day (b/d) last year – the highest in 30 years – at exactly the same moment that China slowed sharply, Japan fell back into recession and Europe’s recovery stalled. “Oil at $45 is a temporary phenomenon, so don’t get too relaxed. We see upward pressures on prices by the end of this year. Oil investments are going to fall by 15pc or about $100bn dollars this year,” he said.

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Sure.

OPEC Secretary General: Oil To Remain At Low Levels For A Month (CNBC)

The secretary general of OPEC told CNBC on Wednesday that oil prices were likely to remain around their current levels for around a month before rebounding. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Abdullah al-Badri said it was hard to predict oil price movements given the ongoing fluctuations. “It will stay for another month at this low price, but I’m sure the price will rebound,” he told CNBC. Brent crude oil prices have dropped almost 50% since last year in the biggest annual fall since 2008, amid weakening demand and a refusal by OPEC to cut production in November. But al-Badri insisted that the group, which provides about a third of the world’s supply, “knew what it was doing.” “We know that there is over-supply in the market, that there is a lower demand—and we decided to keep production as it is,” he said.

If OPEC was going to reduce supply, it had to be alongside production cuts by non-OPEC members, such as U.S. shale producers, al-Badri said. If OPEC was going to reduce supply, it had to be alongside production cuts by non-OPEC members, such as U.S. shale producers, al-Badri said. He insisted that the group was not playing a “game of chicken” with its rivals, as some analysts have claimed, over who can absorb the dip in prices and not cut back on production. “This is a collective decision. It is agreed by all the ministers. … There is a pure economic decision. It is not targeted at anybody. … Whatever you hear is nonsense,” he said. “We are more united than ever. … We are a very strong group.”

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“Companies like us, at BP, we’re going to need to rebase the company based on no guarantees at all that the price will come back up..”

BP Boss Bob Dudley: Oil Prices ‘Low For Up To 3 Years’ (BBC)

The boss of oil giant BP Bob Dudley has said that oil prices could remain low for up to three years. He added that could send UK petrol prices below £1 per litre. He told BBC Business editor Kamal Ahmed in Davos BP was planning for low oil prices for years to come. That is expected to lead to job losses and falling investment in the North Sea oil industry and elsewhere, curbing supply and eventually forcing the price back up. Italian oil group Eni has said the next spike could be around $200 a barrel. Eni’s chief executive, Claudio Descalzi, said the oil industry would cut capital spending by 10-13% this year because of slumping prices. He said that would create longer-term shortages and sharp price rises in four to five years’ time, if the OPEC cartel fails to cut supplies.

Mr Dudley said historically world oil prices have fluctuated, and sometimes have remained low for a number of years. He expects to see current low prices for at least a year, and that BP has to plan for that. “Companies like us, at BP, we’re going to need to rebase the company based on no guarantees at all that the price will come back up,” he said. “We have go to plan on this [price] being down, and we don’t know exactly what level, but certainly a year, I think probably two and maybe three years.” From 2010 until mid-2014, oil prices around the world were fairly stable, at around $110 a barrel. However, since June prices have more than halved. Brent crude oil is around $48 a barrel, and US crude is around $47 a barrel. Mr Dudley said lower oil prices could mean UK petrol could fall below £1 per litre. This kind of petrol price was “not far off”, despite taxation forming a part of the fuel price. “If prices keep going down, I’m sure you will [see £1 per litre],” he added.

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Oil service companies are also expanding.

An Oilfield Turf War for Market Share Is Brewing (Bloomberg)

An oilfield brawl is taking shape between Halliburton and Schlumberger as the world’s two biggest energy service companies vie to grab more market share during a prolonged industry slump. Both companies have chosen to expand operations with an eye toward emerging from the downturn bigger and stronger than before. Schlumberger agreed Tuesday to pay $1.7 billion for a stake in a Russian drilling business, and Halliburton reaffirmed its commitment to buying rival Baker Hughes Inc. for $34.6 billion. The combined companies will be about half the size of Schlumberger. “There’s going to be some market share battles between the two of them,” James West, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said in a phone interview. “Both will attempt to take market share from companies that can’t provide very high efficiency, very high technology products and services.”

A backlog of work provided Halliburton, Baker Hughes and Schlumberger with one last growth spurt in the fourth quarter as the companies turned the corner into a year where they’re expected to have to cut prices for their work by as much as 20%. Amid tens of thousands of industry job cuts, some oil producers have already slashed budgets by as much as 30%, Dave Lesar, chief executive officer at Halliburton, said on a conference call with analysts. The three oilfield service giants are taking their own steps to conserve cash as they brace to weather one of the deepest industry slumps since the 1980s oil bust. U.S. Crude prices have collapsed more than 55% since last year’s high of $107.26 in June.

Fourth-quarter earnings, excluding certain items, exceeded analysts’ expectations for each of the big three service companies. Schlumberger, excluding a $1.77 billion one-time charge that included severance costs, reported a profit of $1.94 billion. Halliburton boosted profit 14% to $901 million, while Baker Hughes more than doubled earnings to $663 million. Schlumberger is buying a stake in Eurasia Drilling, with an option to purchase the rest of the Russian rig contractor’s shares three years after the deal closes. The world’s largest oilfield contractor is betting that economic sanctions in the country will be lifted “sooner or later” in order to gain from a growing Russian oil services market, Alexander Kornilov, an analyst at Alfa Bank, said in an e-mail.

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We’ll see later today.

ECB to Inject Up to €1.1 Trillion Into Economy in Deflation Fight (Bloomberg)

Mario Draghi called on the European Central Bank to make its biggest push yet to fend off deflation and revive the economy by unleashing a debt-buying spree of €1.1 trillion ($1.3 trillion). The ECB president and his Executive Board proposed spending €50 billion a month through December 2016, two euro-area central-bank officials said. The plan still faces a tense debate in the Governing Council and may change before the final decision on Thursday, the people said, asking not to be identified as the talks are private. An ECB spokesman declined to comment. By urging Fed-style quantitative easing, Draghi is remodeling the ECB as an aggressive central bank that will take risks even against the wishes of Germany, the region’s biggest economy.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger have argued QE isn’t needed and reduces the incentive of governments to make structural reforms. The proposal “looks larger than implied by the ECB’s previous comments about the size of its balance sheet,” said Riccardo Barbieri Hermitte, chief European economist at Mizuho in London. “A lot will depend on the risk-sharing features of the program.” Draghi’s intention is to expand the ECB’s balance sheet to the level seen in early 2012, or about €3 trillion. While the central bank has assets of about €2.2 trillion currently, that may shrink as €200 billion of outstanding long-term loans mature in coming weeks.

The ECB chief is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Frankfurt on Thursday to announce the Governing Council’s decision. The council’s debate will be complicated by arguments over whether the risks incurred in the new bond-buying plan should be shared across the region’s 19 central banks or kept within national boundaries. Dutch central-bank Governor Klaas Knot has said any decision to mutualize risk should be taken by elected politicians, not unelected central bankers. The tension over that issue surfaced this week at a conference in Dublin. Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said having national central banks buy government bonds would be “ineffective” – drawing a response from ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure.

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As goal-seeked as you can get.

Lagarde On European QE: It’s Already Working (CNBC)

The World Economic Forum in Davos has many different topics on the agenda but this year it coincides with an hotly anticipated announcement by Mario Draghi, the president of the EC). As part of the ECB’s attempts to stimulate the deflation-hit euro zone, Draghi’s press conference at 13:30 GMT, with a rate decision due at 12:45 GMT, is widely expected to be the moment the Governing Council launches some form of government bond-buying. And with the some of the most powerful people on the planet all meeting in a conference center in Switzerland, QE was the hottest topic of the week Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said on Wednesday that expectations of a bond-buying program in Europe had already had an effect.

“To a point you can say that it has already worked,” Lagarde said on a panel in Davos. “If you look at currency variation and where the euro is at the moment, you can’t deny that there is expectations there that QE is about to come and is announced and will be significant.” European laggard economies were poised to benefit from the higher inflation expectations which would come with quantitative easing, Lagarde added. Official figures released earlier this month revealed that the euro zone slipped into deflation in December for the first time since 2009. “If there is some re-anchoring of inflation in the euro area, those emerging European markets, which are pegged to the euro, will have the benefit of that,” she said.

“Those that are at the moment, importing the inflation so to speak from the euro area will also benefit from that. If there is more growth, more jobs in the euro area, the emerging markets in Europe will benefit from that, because half of their trade actually goes to the euro area.” Speaking on the same panel as Lagarde, Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, added: “I am all for European QE.”

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The big issue is whether Draghi can find enough bonds to purchase – by no means a given – and what their emptying the market of available bonds will do to bond markets.

Mario Draghi May Need To Get A Bigger (QE) Boat (CNBC)

If Mario Draghi wants to have a significant market impact after Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, he better not think small. The financial world’s collective gaze will be focused on the ECB president after the session, during which policymakers are expected to launch a U.S.-style quantitative easing program aimed at injecting liquidity into the sputtering euro zone economy, and goosing asset prices in the process. History, at least that generated by the Federal Reserve’s historically ambitious three rounds of QE, would suggest that the initiative would boost stocks, commodities and bond yields and, hopefully, generate some real economic growth.

However, that’s likely dependent upon how aggressive Draghi wants to get with the ECB’s version of QE, and specifically whether it can shock a market that already is well aware of the plan. “Our view is that the extent to which the ECB will surprise markets depends on size (well above market expectation of €500 billion) and the extent to which markets will perceive QE as being open-ended,” Gilles Moec, European economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a report for clients. “ECB communication will be the key.” The latter part of the remark refers to the post-meeting news conference Draghi will hold.

Indications from him that the ECB continues to plan a “whatever it takes” approach to easing could spark markets, while anything less would be a disappointment. Moec figures the program will entail government bond buying of between €500 billion and €700 billion ($580 billion and $810 billion) over the span of 18 months, a close-to-consensus expectation that likely already is priced in. When headlines leaked of what the ECB was considering, the euro briefly sold, then rebounded and eventually settled slightly higher against the dollar. The trading action was an indication of “how baked-in expectations are to current market prices,” said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX.

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“..investors’ willingness to buy government debt without expecting any profit is indicative of how little they trust corporate lenders.”

Watch Europe Fumble QE (Bloomberg)

Tomorrow, the European Central Bank is almost certainly going to start a quantitative easing program, buying up government debt to provide money to banks so they plow it into European economies and thus boost demand and growth. So the theory goes, but the practice of European QE will probably prove it wrong. ECB President Mario Draghi has no other option after months of political pressure fueled by the panicky fear of deflation. In a way, the ECB painted itself into a corner by targeting headline inflation, not core inflation, which excludes food and energy. When the oil price halved in the last months of 2014, there was no way for the ECB to fulfill its mandate of keeping price growth close to 2% a year. My Bloomberg View colleague Mark Gilbert has pointed out that deflation hasn’t undermined consumer confidence in Europe as economists warned it would, and people haven’t really been delaying purchases. Yet, according to Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a different danger still exists:

In general, falling prices of specific goods or services do not deter economic activity. The prospect of lower prices of computers does not, for example, keep consumers from purchasing them now. A greater risk to economic growth is that euro area employers, suspecting that deflation will boost real wages, may insist on minimum or even zero nominal wage increases in upcoming negotiations, reducing their purchasing power and dampening growth prospects.

The question is whether the injection of freshly minted euros from the ECB’s government-debt purchases will somehow make employers more amenable to raising wages and stimulating demand. For that to happen, the new euros first need to filter down to businesses. There are two ways that can happen: through the capital markets and through banks. The first path depends on driving down interest rates on sovereign debt so that lenders become more interested in other types of bonds, generated by businesses, and borrowing costs fall. Sovereign debt, however, already yields next to nothing. Germany today sold €4 billion ($4.7 billion) of zero% five-year bonds. Unless the QE drives yields on European sovereign debt deep into negative territory, it’s hard to see how the relative attractiveness of corporate bonds could increase by much. In fact, investors’ willingness to buy government debt without expecting any profit is indicative of how little they trust corporate lenders.

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“The ability of Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank president, to promote his well-known concerns about risk-sharing into powerful conditions for a sovereign-bond program will astonish many who believed Mario Draghi could push through full-scale QE..”

German Opt-Out Could Fatally Weaken Eurozone QE (MarketWatch)

In the shadowy world of European Central Bank decision-making, all central banks are equal — but some are more equal than others. Important concessions have been offered to the German Bundesbank to facilitate an announcement on sovereign-debt purchases after the ECB’s meeting on Thursday. But those concessions could open further divisions within the 19-member economic and monetary union, without guaranteeing the effectiveness of the attempt to overcome the eurozone’s low inflation and rebuild political cohesiveness. The QE program that ensues looks set to fall well short of the across-the-board quantitative easing that many financial-markets practitioners had been expecting. A significant additional factor in the complex ECB discussions on full-scale quantitative easing is last week’s Swiss National Bank decision to end its unilateral peg, in force since September 2011, between the Swiss franc and the euro.

That decision led to a sharp revaluation of the Swiss currency. The revoking of the earlier Swiss pledge to buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency to depress the Swiss franc has lowered the general credibility of central-bank statements on exchange rates and removed a major source of euro support. It exposes the SNB to heavy currency write-downs on its end-2014 foreign-exchange holdings of more than 475 billion francs, built up through unprecedented intervention to hold down the franc. Switzerland’s official reserves, up 10-fold since 2008, are now among the highest in the world. However, they will almost certainly be a major loss-maker for the Swiss state in 2015, with big political repercussions in Switzerland that will have an influence in Germany too. Further, the Swiss climb-down revealed the full extent of euro-bloc strains.

The mechanism of the single currency has depressed the real (inflation-adjusted) value of the “German euro” by at least 20%, compared with its theoretical level outside EMU. Whatever happens on Thursday, the fragility, hesitancy and politicization of the ECB’s decision-making are likely to drive the euro still weaker, without necessarily helping equity markets. The ability of Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank president, to promote his well-known concerns about risk-sharing into powerful conditions for a sovereign-bond program will astonish many who believed Mario Draghi, the ECB president, could push through full-scale QE without accepting German strictures. The effective German opt-out from comprehensive support for other EMU countries rekindles memories of the Bundesbank’s surprise revelation in September 1992, when it said it would no longer intervene to shore up the Italian lira in the exchange-rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, the EMU’s forerunner.

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“..at least let’s say he’ll give it a good college try..”

Market Will Be Disappointed By Draghi: Dennis Gartman (CNBC)

The market will likely be a bit disappointed by whatever economic stimulus European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announces Thursday, noted investor Dennis Gartman told CNBC on Wednesday. The ECB is expected to start a quantitative easing program it hopes will provide a boost to the European economy. “We’re going to end up seeing that Mr. Draghi will not be able to do what the market really wants him to do. He needs to get the balance sheet of the ECB back to $3 trillion, where it was several years ago. The problem that he has is that he doesn’t have the ammunition or he doesn’t have the capability to get it there,” the editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter said in an interview with “Closing Bell.”

While the U.S. has broad federal debt securities, the ECB has 19 different treasury securities from which to buy. “He would like to get it done. Size counts. Size matters. But I’m not sure he can get the size accomplished. So it will probably be a bit of a disappointment but at least let’s say he’ll give it a good college try,” Gartman said. The markets are anticipating about 500 billion euros ($580 billion) in bond purchases, but some economists think it could be higher. On Wednesday, sources confirmed to CNBC that the central bank is planning to announce it will purchase 50 billion euros of bonds a month. The Wall Street Journal first reported that figure.

“Let’s give him credit for being able to accomplish anything. This is a very tendentious group of people, of countries, that he has to try to get together,” Gartman said. Whatever Draghi can get done will help the European economy, he said, and will also put downward pressure upon the euro two to three weeks from now. “But you’re likely to get a small bounce. Any bounce that you get on the euro predicated upon disappointment … in tomorrow’s action … should be sold into,” Gartman added.

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“Europe can’t afford a Greek exit.”

The Eurozone Can’t Afford A Greek Exit (Guardian)

Eurozone officials have spent the last four years building a financial buffer big enough to cope with a Greek exit. Ever since 2010 when Athens found itself unable to refinance its foreign loans and asked for a €120bn bailout, Brussels has sought to prevent another collapse and repeat of the crisis that swamped all ideas of recovery. Today a Grexit would weaken German and French banks, and cost the German government up to €77bn and the International Monetary Fund a slug of its loans, but would be unlikely to frighten global markets or undermine the 14-year-old currency bloc. In the last few weeks eurozone government bonds, which reflect the stability of a country’s finances, have remained steady while the leftist Syriza party’s polling has jumped.

In part, analysts say the €440bn European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) amassed by Brussels is a big enough buffer. They have also scrutinised Syriza’s stance and reasoned that leader, Alex Tsipras, has given himself enough wriggle room to soften his previously hardline stance. Still, there are fears that the binding that holds the eurozone together will be loosened, especially if Greece is allowed to default while remaining inside the zone. The Bruegel Institute in Brussels is not the only thinktank to believe the estimated €250bn cost of a Grexit, while covered by the bailout funds, would cripple the eurozone and delay recovery for a decade. Zsolt Darvas, one of the institute’s economists said: “I am convinced that Greece will need new funding from European partners, but its volume should be a few dozen billion euros, say €20bn-€30bn.

“Compare the inconveniences of these additional funds to the losses on the existing approximate €250bn share of official lenders in Greek public debt (Greek Loan Facility, EFSF loans, IMF loans, money owed to the ECB and national central bank holdings of Greek bonds) and on various kinds of European Central Bank claims on Greece in the case of a Grexit.” Darvas said Greek loans can be extended to help Athens delay payments and use the money for reconstruction. Joachim Poss, the German Social Democratic party’s deputy finance spokesman in the German parliament, said earlier this month the total was unaffordable. “Europe as a whole would pick up a very, very large bill and Germany the biggest part – let there be no mistake,” he said, concluding: “Europe can’t afford a Greek exit.”

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“Syriza could embolden other anti-establishment parties challenging the mainstream political elite and their policies.”

Populist Parties: Kryptonite For Europe’s Leaders? (CNBC)

Elections in Greece this weekend could prove a test bed for anti-establishment, populist parties throughout Europe which continue to make their plague mainstream parties in the opinion polls, general elections and on the streets. If Greek opinion polls are anything to go by, the Sunday’s snap election could be a nasty shock for Europe as the anti-establishment, anti-bailout party Syriza looks poised to win. Apart from concerns that Syriza would try to renegotiate Greece’s bailout terms with international lenders, reverse austerity measures and seek debt forgiveness – reasons enough to destabilize markets within the euro zone’s fragile, inter-connected economy – Syriza could embolden other anti-establishment parties challenging the mainstream political elite and their policies.

Among those that could stand to gain the most is Spain’s anti-establishment party “Podemos” (We Can). Despite being set up only one year ago, Podemos is leading opinion polls ahead of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party. Crucially, a general elections are due in Spain later this year — giving Podemos a real shot at power. “The rise of Syriza to power will represent an important test for the ability of an anti-establishment party to secure a better deal from Greece’s international creditors that will be closely watched by similar political movements, like Podemos,” Wolfango Piccoli, managing director of risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence told CNBC.

Anti-establishment movements such as the U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have spread throughout Europe over the last few years, accompanying a period of economic stress and unpopular austerity programs that have led voters to seek an alternative to the old political elite. “Behind the success of anti-establishment parties across Europe these days is the economic vulnerability in a growing subset of national electorates. From Syriza to UKIP, populist forces try to cash in on this insider-outsider politics, but each in their own national contexts,” Piccoli added.

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“Our homeland unfortunately is taking us backwards – paltry wages, miserable pensions – and we’re looking for something better.”

Revenge of Disaffected Europe Risks Crisis Sparked in Greece (Bloomberg)

They speak different languages, they come from different backgrounds, yet all have the same message of frustration that’s threatening to redraw the European political map over the next year. Starting with elections this Sunday in Greece and heading west to Ireland via Britain and Spain, polls show Europeans will vent their anger over issues from widening income disparities and record unemployment to unprecedented immigration. For Athens pensioner Irini Smyrni, the moment she’d had enough was when her younger daughter lost her job with the government last year. For Dublin florist Nicola Johns, it was when her business fell behind on rent. “We pay, we pay, we pay,” said Smyrni, 73. “Our homeland unfortunately is taking us backwards – paltry wages, miserable pensions – and we’re looking for something better.”

English electrical technician David Liddle wants someone to stick up for people like him rather than immigrants and “scroungers.” Virginia Sanchez, an unpaid university researcher in Madrid, said she just grew tired of being failed by the usual politicians unable to improve her prospects. “I keep going because there’s nothing else to do,” said Sanchez, 23, who graduated in biology last year. Disaffection with what is seen as a ruling elite and a sense of being left behind in an increasingly globalized world are complaints heard across Europe on varying points of the political spectrum as the continent struggles to recover from successive waves of financial and economic crises.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi today is expected to announce the latest efforts by his monetary policy makers to foster economic growth in the euro region by injecting money into the financial system. It’s unlikely to make enough of a difference to deter people from protesting at the ballot box. “Political elites have lost track of their citizens, who feel insecure amid all the economic and social pressures,” said Daniela Schwarzer, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Europe program in Berlin. “There’s a growing questioning of the political establishment across Europe.” The result is that people are abandoning parties used to being in government, those deemed safe to lead by creditors, investors and European bureaucrats.

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My bet is still they won’t.

As Central Banks Surprise, Fed May Have To Throw In The Towel (MarketWatch)

The surprises coming out of the Swiss National Bank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada spell tectonic shifts occurring in the global economy that inevitably will hit these shores. The Swiss of course unearthed the biggest surprise last week, by ending their policy of buying up euros, but on Wednesday there were at least three further surprises as well. The surprises started as Bank of England minutes revealed that two hawks no longer supported rate hikes. That’s particularly newsworthy as the U.K. economy, along with the U.S., has been one of the strongest performers of industrialized nations. Then came news leaks on the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing plans.

That the ECB is about to start buying bonds is not a surprise, but the reports that they’ll do so each month is. While some in the market may be disappointed the headline size of 50 billion euros per month is not blockbuster, an open-ended campaign makes it easier for the ECB to continue the purchases and ramp them up. The Bank of Canada then shocked the market with a quarter-point rate cut, to 0.75%. The Bank of Canada is concerned that the sharp drop in oil prices will not just mute inflation but dampen growth in the export-intensive economy. The central bank even reported concerns that the oil-price collapse will have on foreign demand, exports, investment and jobs growth. With this backdrop, it seems almost ludicrous that the Fed will just stick to the plan it had in the fall, to start a rate-hike campaign in the middle of 2015.

In order for the Fed to do so, the U.S. economy will not only have to be resilient to some of the overseas pain, and its own domestic energy sector, but the inflows into government bonds and the dollar will have to slow. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says the reason yields on U.S. Treasurys are so low is due to overseas investment and not fears over weak domestic growth. But even if right, that’s almost irrelevant. If the Fed starts hiking in this turbulent global environment, it will only accelerate overseas investment here — further dampening already-muted inflationary pressure and making life difficult for exporters, and possibly furthering risky behavior that some on the Fed want to clamp.

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Why the question mark?

Is Canada’s Rate Cut A Race For The Bottom? (CNBC)

Commodity currencies may face a race to the bottom as the Bank of Canada’s surprise rate cut sent the Canadian dollar to five-year lows and could pressure Australia’s central bank to follow suit. “The reason [the Bank of Canada] cut rates is largely weaker oil prices. Australia is also a commodity exporter. The market could be excused for anticipating the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) would adopt a similar viewpoint,” said Greg Gibbs, senior foreign-exchange strategist at RBS. Discussions among market participants of whether successive rounds of central bank easing are making for a “tacit currency war” are increasing, he said.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BOC) cut its benchmark rate to 0.75% from 1%, its first rate change since late 2010, and cut its inflation and growth forecasts, citing the more than 50% decline in oil prices since mid-2014. The Canadian dollar, also known as the loonie, tanked, shedding as much as 4% against the dollar compared with Tuesday’s levels. The U.S. dollar was fetching levels not seen since 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis. Other central banks have also moved to weaken their currencies, with the Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing partly aiming for a weaker yen and Australia’s central bank trying to talk down its dollar.

The ECB’s likely move to announce plans Thursday to start buying assets set to further dent the euro, already at its weakest against the U.S. dollar since 2003. “Every central bank is trying to get rates down to zero, if not lower than zero,” Kumar Palghat at bond manager Kapstream told CNBC. “The only question is, you take rates down to zero, you depreciate your currency, you buy as much bonds as you want, if it doesn’t work, then what else are they going to do?” Energy and commodity exporters have particularly felt the heat. “Oil extraction now comprises roughly 3% of Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) and crude oil about 14% of Canadian exports,” Wells Fargo Securities said in a note Wednesday.

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“My only hope is that you understand that I acted in an attempt—however misguided—to generate higher returns for the fund and its investors..”

Manager ‘Truly Sorry’ For Blowing Up $100 Million Hedge Fund (CNBC)

A hedge fund manager told clients he is “truly sorry” for losing virtually all their money. Owen Li, the founder of Canarsie Capital in New York, said Tuesday he had lost all but $200,000 of the firm’s capital—down from the roughly it ran as of late March. “I take responsibility for this terrible outcome,” Li wrote in a letter to investors, which was obtained by CNBC.com. “My only hope is that you understand that I acted in an attempt—however misguided—to generate higher returns for the fund and its investors. But even so, I acted overzealously, causing you devastating losses for which there is no excuse,” he added.

Li is a former trader at Raj Rajaratnam’s Galleon Group, which collapsed amid insider trading charges. Rajaratnam is now in prison for the illegal activity, but Li was never accused of wrongdoing. Li’s lieutenant at Canarsie is Ken deRegt, who joined in 2013 after retiring as the global head of fixed income sales and trading at Morgan Stanley. His son Eric deRegt also worked at Canarsie, according to filings with the SEC as of March 2014. Li said in the letter that he made a series of “aggressive transactions” over the last three weeks to make up for poor returns in December. He said he bet on stock price options, predicated on the broader market rising. But stock indexes fell, causing the huge losses along with several undisclosed direct investments, according to the note.

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“Just 80 individuals now have the same net wealth as 3.5 billion people – half the entire global population.”

The Davos Oligarchs Are Right To Fear The World They’ve Made (Guardian)

The billionaires and corporate oligarchs meeting in Davos this week are getting worried about inequality. It might be hard to stomach that the overlords of a system that has delivered the widest global economic gulf in human history should be handwringing about the consequences of their own actions. But even the architects of the crisis-ridden international economic order are starting to see the dangers. It’s not just the maverick hedge-funder George Soros, who likes to describe himself as a class traitor. Paul Polman, Unilever chief executive, frets about the “capitalist threat to capitalism”. Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, fears capitalism might indeed carry Marx’s “seeds of its own destruction” and warns that something needs to be done. The scale of the crisis has been laid out for them by the charity Oxfam.

Just 80 individuals now have the same net wealth as 3.5 billion people – half the entire global population. Last year, the best-off 1% owned 48% of the world’s wealth, up from 44% five years ago. On current trends, the richest 1% will have pocketed more than the other 99% put together next year. The 0.1% have been doing even better, quadrupling their share of US income since the 1980s. This is a wealth grab on a grotesque scale. For 30 years, under the rule of what Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, calls “market fundamentalism”, inequality in income and wealth has ballooned, both between and within the large majority of countries. In Africa, the absolute number living on less than $2 a day has doubled since 1981 as the rollcall of billionaires has swelled.

In most of the world, labour’s share of national income has fallen continuously and wages have stagnated under this regime of privatisation, deregulation and low taxes on the rich. At the same time finance has sucked wealth from the public realm into the hands of a small minority, even as it has laid waste the rest of the economy. Now the evidence has piled up that not only is such appropriation of wealth a moral and social outrage, but it is fuelling social and climate conflict, wars, mass migration and political corruption, stunting health and life chances, increasing poverty, and widening gender and ethnic divides. Escalating inequality has also been a crucial factor in the economic crisis of the past seven years, squeezing demand and fuelling the credit boom.

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It would still mean Monsanto et al own the rights and patents on our food, and that is as wrong as it can be.

‘Safer GMOs’ Made By US Scientists (BBC)

US scientists say they have taken the first step towards making “safer” GMOs that cannot spread in the wild, using synthetic biology. They have re-written the genetic code of bacteria to use only synthetic chemicals to grow. The GM bacteria would die if they escaped into nature. The research, published in Nature, is proof of concept for a new generation of GMOs, including plants, say Harvard and Yale university experts. Genetically engineered micro-organisms are used in Europe, the US and China to produce drugs or fuels under contained industrial conditions. Scientists want to build in safety measures so that their spread could be controlled if they were ever used in the outside world, perhaps to mop up oil spills or to improve human health.

“What we’ve done is engineered organisms so that they require synthetic amino acids for survival or for life,” Prof Farren Isaacs of Yale University, who led one of two studies, told BBC News. He said the future challenge was to re-engineer the code of other lifeforms. “What we’re seeing here is an important proof of concept that re-coding genomes and engineering dependence on synthetic amino acids is technically feasible in not just E coli but other micro-organisms and multicellular organisms such as plants.” GMOs have a number of potential practical uses, including the production of drugs and fuels, and removing pollutants from contaminated areas. However, strict containment measures would be needed to use them in open spaces to stop them spreading in the wild.

The US researchers describe their research, published in Nature journal, as a “milestone” in synthetic biology. Prof George Church of Harvard Medical School, who led the other study, said in order to protect natural ecosystems and address public concern the scientific community needed to develop robust biocontainment mechanisms for GMOs. “This work provides a foundation for safer GMOs that are isolated from natural ecosystems by a reliance on synthetic metabolites.”

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Jan 142015
 
 January 14, 2015  Posted by at 11:18 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  4 Responses »


Frances Benjamin Johnston Edgar Allan Poe’s mother’s house, Richmond, VA 1930

Commodities Tumble to 12-Year Low as US Futures Slide (Bloomberg)
Oil at $40, and Below, Gaining Traction on Wall Street (Bloomberg)
Oil Fall Could Lead To US Capex Collapse: Jeff Gundlach (Reuters)
The Stock Market Is Overvalued Any Way You Look At It (MarketWatch)
Slide in Oil Means Tighter Budgets and Fewer Perks for Gulf Arabs (Bloomberg)
OPEC’s Squeeze On US Oil Independence Could Succeed (Satyajit Das)
Low Prices Spark Biggest Surge In Chinese Crude Imports Ever (Zero Hedge)
EU Top Court Finds ECB’s Bond Buying Plan ‘May Be Legal’ (Zero Hedge)
Court Decision Could Narrow ECB’s Quantitative Easing Options (FT)
QE In Europe Will Be Even More Inefficient Than It Was In The US (CNBC)
Tsipras Says ’Fiscal Waterboarding’ Holding Greece Back (BW)
Cheap Gas Makes US Only Place Where Export Makes Sense (Bloomberg)
Oil Collapse of 1986 Shows Rebound Could Be Years Away (Bloomberg)
As Oil Slips Below $50, Canada Digs In for Long Haul (WSJ)
Arctic Explorers Retreat From Hostile Waters With Oil Prices Low (Bloomberg)
Prepare For The Largest Wealth Transfer In History (MarketWatch)
Germany Balances Budget For First Time Since 1969 (Guardian)
Half The World Covets The UK’s Precious Inflation (AEP)
Plunging Oil Prices, Rising Debt Leaves Asia Staring at Deflation (Bloomberg)
For China, Even Good Numbers Don’t Add Up (Bloomberg)
China’s $300 Billion Errors May Mask Illicit Outflows (Bloomberg)
Standard Chartered Loses $4.4 Billion On Commodities, Must Raise Cash (Reuters)
Middle Eastern Governments Are on Shopping Spree for Former Congressmen (Vice)
EU-US TTIP Trade Talks Hit Investor Protection Snag (BBC)
EU Changes Rules On GMO Crop Cultivation (BBC)
Melting Glaciers Imperil Kathmandu, Perched High Above Rising Seas (Bloomberg)

Getting ugly. Just getting started.

Commodities Tumble to 12-Year Low as US Futures Slide (Bloomberg)

Commodities (BCOM) tumbled to a 12-year low, led by copper’s biggest decline in almost six years, as slowing global growth curbs demand. Stocks fell around the world, while the yen rose with Treasuries. The Bloomberg Commodities Index slid 1% by 8:24 a.m. in London as copper tumbled 6%. Nickel fell to an 11-month low as crude oil declined. The MSCI All Country World Index fell 0.4% as benchmark gauges in Europe and Asia declined and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.6%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries matched a 20-month low and German and U.K. bonds rallied. The yen rose a fourth day.

Commodity prices are tumbling as a supply glut collides with waning demand, reducing earnings prospects for producers and increasing the appeal of government bonds as inflation slows. The World Bank cut its global growth outlook, citing weak expansions in Europe and China, the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials. Data today is projected to show a gain in U.S. oil inventories. “Oversupply and falling demand are dragging down commodities beyond oil,” said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, which oversees $325 billion. “There are a lot of uncertainties and it’s hard to see a reversal in sentiment for the time being. As an investor it’s hard to proactively take on risk at the moment.” [..] “The news everywhere is doom and gloom,” said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “Prices are going to keep sinking.”

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Now they tell us 😉

Oil at $40, and Below, Gaining Traction on Wall Street (Bloomberg)

Brace for $40-a-barrel oil. The U.S. benchmark crude price, down more than $60 since June to below $45 yesterday, is on the way to this next threshold, said Societe Generale and Bank of America. And Goldman Sachs says that West Texas Intermediate needs to remain near $40 during the first half to deter investment in new supplies that would add to the glut. “The markets are continuing to price in huge oversupply in the first half of 2015,” Mike Wittner, head of research at SocGen, said. “We’re going to go below $40.” Oil is seeking a “new equilibrium” as OPEC abandons its role of keeping supply and demand aligned, according to Goldman. Prices are poised to drop further, testing the ability of U.S. shale drillers to keep pumping.

WTI has dropped 14% this month, extending a 46% plunge last year that was the worst since the 2008 financial crisis. OPEC is trying to maintain its share of the global oil market against the rise of U.S. output. United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei reiterated yesterday that shale producers will capitulate before OPEC to lower prices, the latest in more than a dozen comments from Gulf members aimed at hastening oil’s slide and lowering non-OPEC supply. The rout may continue to $35 a barrel in the “near term” because both oil supply and demand will have a delayed reaction to falling prices, Francisco Blanch at Bank of America said in a report on Jan. 6.

The U.S. is pumping oil at the fastest pace in more than three decades, helped by a drilling boom that’s unlocked supplies from shale formations including the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota. U.S. output expanded to 9.14 million barrels a day in the week ended Dec. 12, the most since at least 1983, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. With Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations no longer fine-tuning supply, reductions in investment in new production will be the instrument for removing excess output, Jeffrey Currie at Goldman said. This means the collapse will be deeper and the recovery slower than in previous slumps, he said.

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“.. there is a possibility of a “true collapse” in U.S. capital expenditures and hiring if the price of oil stays at its current level.”

Oil Fall Could Lead To US Capex Collapse: Jeff Gundlach (Reuters)

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach said on Tuesday there is a possibility of a “true collapse” in U.S. capital expenditures and hiring if the price of oil stays at its current level. Gundlach, who correctly predicted government bond yields would plunge in 2014, said on his annual outlook webcast that 35% of Standard & Poor’s capital expenditures comes from the energy sector and if oil remains around the $45-plus level or drops further, growth in capital expenditures could likely “fall to zero.” Gundlach, the co-founder of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, which oversees $64 billion in assets, noted that “all of the job growth in the (economic) recovery can be attributed to the shale renaissance.” He added that if low oil prices remain, the U.S. could see a wave of bankruptcies from some leveraged energy companies.

Brent has fallen as low as just above $45 a barrel, near a six-year low, having averaged $110 between 2011 and 2013. Gundlach said oil prices have to stop going down so “don’t be bottom-fishing in oil” stocks and bonds. “There is no hurry here.” Energy bonds, for example, have been beaten up and appear attractive on a risk-reward basis, but investors need to hedge them by purchasing “a lot, lot of long-term Treasuries. I’m in no hurry to do it.” High-yield junk bonds have also been under severe selling pressure. Gundlach said his firm bought some junk in November but warned that investors need to “go slow” and pointed out “we are still underweight.”

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Everything is overvalued.

The Stock Market Is Overvalued Any Way You Look At It (MarketWatch)

No matter how you slice it, the stock market is overvalued. In fact, based on six well-known and time-tested indicators, equities are more overvalued today than they’ve been between 69% and 89% of the past century’s bull-market tops. To be sure, overvaluation doesn’t immediately doom a market. A year ago, the stock market was almost as overvalued as it is now, and it nevertheless turned in a decent year. But valuation indicators’ inability to forecast the market’s short-term direction doesn’t justify ignoring them altogether. Their longer-term forecasting record is impressive, which means that — sooner or later — the market will succumb to their gravitational force. Consider six widely used valuation indicators. To put their current readings into context, I compared them to where they stood at all bull-market tops since 1900 (using the definition employed by Ned Davis Research). Five of the six indicators show today’s market to be more overvalued than at between 82% and 89% of those previous peaks.

• The price/book ratio, which stands at an estimated 2.6 to 1. The book value dataset I was able to obtain extends only back to the 1920s rather than to the beginning of the century, but at 23 of the 28 major market tops since then, the price/book ratio was lower than it is today.
• The price/sales ratio, which stands at an estimated 1.1 to 1. I was able to put my hands on per-share sales data back to the mid 1950s; at 16 of the 18 market tops since, the price/sales ratio was lower than where it stands now.
• The dividend yield, which currently is 2.0% for the S&P 500. At 30 of the 35 bull-market peaks since 1900, the dividend yield was higher.
• The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, which currently stands at 26.8. This is the ratio championed by Yale University’s Robert Shiller. It was lower than where it is today at 30 of the 35 bull-market highs since 1900.
• The so-called “q” ratio. Based on research conducted by the late James Tobin, the 1981 Nobel laureate in economics, the ratio is calculated by dividing market value by the replacement cost of assets. According to data compiled by Stephen Wright, an economics professor at the University of London, and Andrew Smithers, founder of the U.K.-based economics-consulting firm Smithers & Co., the market currently is more overvalued than it was at 31 of the 35 bull-market tops since 1900.
• The sixth valuation indicator is the one that is least bearish: The traditional price/earnings ratio. According to data on as-reported earnings compiled by Yale’s Shiller, and based on S&P estimates for the fourth quarter, this ratio currently stands at 18.7 to 1. It is higher than it was at 69% of past bull-market peaks.

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Timebombs.

Slide in Oil Means Tighter Budgets and Fewer Perks for Gulf Arabs (Bloomberg)

Gulf Arabs are gradually losing perks from free water to cheap fuel as governments hit by the slump in crude prices seek to trim their budgets. Kuwait, Oman and Abu Dhabi reduced subsidies on diesel, natural gas and utilities this month. The plunge on oil markets has added to pressure on the region’s rulers to implement spending cuts that were under discussion before the drop. Countries in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council have used subsidies to mollify citizens and keep unrest at bay. The subsidies will be gradually removed “as long as there is no major blowback from citizens,” said Jim Krane at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston. “Governments have genuine fiscal pressure that adds punch to their call for everyone to tighten their belts.” Spending on subsidies in the GCC surged in the past four decades to reach as much as 10% of economic output in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, according to the World Bank.

Gasoline sells at 45 cents a gallon (12 cents a liter) in the kingdom, the cheapest after Venezuela among 61 countries tracked by Bloomberg. Cheap energy has led to a surge in consumption, which risks reducing the oil available for export. State-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co. warned in May that it will have “unacceptably low levels” of oil to sell in the next two decades if domestic power use keeps rising at 8% a year. “With energy demand in the GCC doubling every seven years, these countries can no longer afford to keep subsidizing domestic consumption of their chief export,” Krane said. The Middle East and North Africa accounted for about 50% of global energy subsidies in 2011, according to the IMF, a year when Brent crude averaged $111 a barrel. It was trading at below $47 yesterday. Even if oil recovers to average $65 a barrel this year, the GCC nations will post a combined budget deficit of 6% of gross domestic product, according to Arqaam Capital, a Dubai-based investment bank.

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“OPEC, the industry cartel through which Saudi Arabia traditionally exerts its influence, is in decline. OPEC’s market share has fallen from more than 50% in 1974 to around 40% currently. ”

OPEC’s Squeeze On US Oil Independence Could Succeed (Satyajit Das)

The price of crude oil, adjusted for inflation, is at 1979 levels, having fallen by more than 50% since June 2014. Weak demand contributes perhaps 30%-40% of the fall. In 2014, oil demand grew by around 500,000 barrels per day, below the 1.3 million barrels of growth projected earlier, reflecting slack economic activity in Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, especially China. Increased supply accounts for 60%-70% of the decline. High prices and strong demand encouraged new sources of oil to be brought on stream. The U.S. alone has added 3 million barrels a day of new supply in just the past three years, the equivalent of adding another Kuwait to the world oil market. The increased supply has been exacerbated by the refusal of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to cut output for strategic and geopolitical reasons.

OPEC, the industry cartel through which Saudi Arabia traditionally exerts its influence, is in decline. OPEC’s market share has fallen from more than 50% in 1974 to around 40% currently. Compounding OPEC’s problems are efforts to diminish the role of oil as a transport fuel. The poor financial condition of some OPEC members makes it hard for them to reduce production, exacerbating the decline of the cartel’s power and its ability to dictate prices. From the Saudi perspective, the primary benefit of high oil prices has accrued to non-OPEC members. A cut in Saudi or OPEC production to support prices would only further benefit these oil producers. The Saudis are mindful of history. In the mid-1980s, Saudi Arabia cut its output by close to 75% to support weak prices. The Saudis suffered a loss of both revenues and market share.

Other OPEC members and non-OPEC producers benefitted from higher prices. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has regained market share, benefitting from the disruption to suppliers such as Iran, Iraq and Libya. The Saudis are reluctant to cut production, preferring to maintain market share rather than prices. The strategy is to allow oil prices to fall to levels below production costs of high-cost producers and non-traditional oil sources. The average breakeven cost currently is probably between $60 and $70 per barrel. Importantly, U.S. shale oil may not be economically viable below those levels. Perhaps as much as 80% of shale reserves are uneconomic at prices below $80 per barrel, at least based on current technology. In the short run, producers may continue to produce and sell at below breakeven prices. If oil prices stay low for a sustained period, then producers will cut production, with marginal- or higher-cost firms forced to close or declare bankruptcy.

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China has actually kept oil prices up.

Low Prices Spark Biggest Surge In Chinese Crude Imports Ever (Zero Hedge)

Despite the collapse of several key industries (cough Steel & Construction cough), Chinese crude oil imports surged by almost 5 million barrels in December – the most on record. This 19.5% surge MoM (and 13.4% YoY) indicates significant efforts to fill the nation’s strategic reserve but – absent this ‘artificial’ demand – spells problems for an already over-supplied global oil market (and its near record contango). A record surge in crude imports in December…

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Back to the German courts.

EU Top Court Finds ECB’s Bond Buying Plan ‘May Be Legal’ (Zero Hedge)

Almost a year ago, the German top court found that ECB’s OMT is “illegal”, then promptly washed its hands of the final decision, kicking the ball in the court of the European Court of Justice. Moments ago, the Advocate General Pedro Cruz Villalon of the EU Court of Justice in Luxembourg delivered the non-binding opinion on issue of Mario Draghi’s “unconditional” OMT. Here are the details from Reuters and Bloomberg:

• EU COURT ADVISER SAYS OMT PROGRAMME IN LINE WITH EU LAW SO LONG AS CERTAIN CONDITIONS MET

The conditions:

• EU COURT ADVISER SAYS OMT LEGITIMATE SO LONG AS THERE IS NO DIRECT INVOLVEMENT IN FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME THAT APPLIES TO STATE IN QUESTION
• EU COURT ADVISER SAYS ECB MUST OUTLINE REASONS FOR ADOPTING UNCONVENTIONAL MEASURES SUCH AS OMT PROGRAMME

[..] Basically, the court has allowed the ECB to drive down borrowing costs using the OMT but it can’t fund bailouts. How the two will be “separated” in a world of fungible money is unclear and will likely be the basis for another court appeal. Bottom line: Draghi’s “unconditional” bazooka just became conditional, but it is still a bazooka, albeit one that will never actually be used since well over two years after it was revealed following Draghi’s famous “whatever it takes” speech, it still has no legal termsheet or basis, and no definition on its pari passu or burden-sharing status. And it never will: after all it was merely meant as a precautionary device designed to scare away the bond vigilantes, and never to be actually implemented.

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“..the burden for part of the losses could fall on national central banks. That would land quantitative easing in the same murky waters as its emergency liquidity assistance for crisis-riddled banks — a policy that lies far beyond the realms of standard monetary policy.”

Court Decision Could Narrow ECB’s Quantitative Easing Options (FT)

Splits on the European Central Bank’s governing council had already left Mario Draghi facing tough choices on how to design a quantitative easing package for the eurozone. The European Court of Justice may impose more limits on the ECB president’s options on Wednesday. One of the ECJ’s advocates-general, Pedro Cruz Villalón, will issue an interim ruling on whether an earlier promise to save the region from economic ruin by buying government bonds in potentially unlimited quantities overstepped the ECB’s mandate. Any suggestion that elements of the Outright Monetary Transactions programme, unveiled at the height of the region’s crisis in the summer of 2012, contravene EU law may raise the risk that the ECB’s forthcoming QE package will underwhelm markets.

The chasm between the pro- and anti-QE camps, as well as resistance towards more monetary easing in Germany, are clearly weighing on Mr Draghi’s thinking. He has championed quantitative easing as a way to prevent the eurozone from falling into a damaging spell of deflation. But of the governing council’s 24 members, six last month voted against a decision to increase the ECB’s balance sheet by €1,000bn — a key step to prepare the bank for bond buying. Half the opposition came from the ECB’s internal executive board. The council’s two Germans, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and board member Sabine Lautenschläger, remain opposed to the policy.

For the ECB to embark on a policy as controversial as government bond buying, it could not tolerate such a high level of dissent. The issue is all the more charged because of Greece, and the growing fears that its bonds may ultimately be subjected to some form of restructuring, implying losses for whoever ends up holding them. The ECB is already considering breaking one of the most sacrosanct principles of monetary union to appease the hawks. Its chief economist, Peter Praet, has raised the prospect that the burden for part of the losses could fall on national central banks. That would land quantitative easing in the same murky waters as its emergency liquidity assistance for crisis-riddled banks — a policy that lies far beyond the realms of standard monetary policy.

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All that matters: “.. there is no demand in Europe”

QE In Europe Will Be Even More Inefficient Than It Was In The US (CNBC)

The market is expecting confirmation of a quantitative easing (QE) plan from European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi very soon. Indeed, CNBC learned yesterday that the ECB will more than likely base its highly-anticipated sovereign bond buying on the size of contributions made by national central banks. But whatever form it takes, it will almost certainly be the most inefficient bout of QE seen by global markets since the onset of the financial crisis. We already know that yields in Europe are extraordinarily low, and that these have not yet fed through to the broader economy. Further, whether based on gross domestic product (GDP), bond market size, central bank contribution, or sovereign rating, bond buying will be focused towards the core of Germany, Italy and France.

This will likely have little incremental effect in spurring consumers and firms to borrow. We won’t know if U.S. QE worked for at least another few years. If – and I stress if – it did, it will have been because it Fed through to companies due to a well-developed bond market, and because the U.S.’s consumption-led economy has strong multiplier effects. It is unlikely that the ECB’s bond-buying program will be so lucky. Why does the average investor or business borrow money? It is either to increase capital spending to expand, or for financial engineering in order to purchase an existing cash flow (where its value is higher than the cost of debt required to own it). The former increases capital stock, the latter just transfers its ownership.

There is no doubt that U.S. QE has led to both taking place – arguably far more financial engineering than capital generation. The same will be true in Europe, but the balance will be even further towards the financial engineering side. The process by which QE (may have) worked in the U.S. saw banks sell bonds in exchange for “cash” held at the Fed paying minimal interest rates. Essentially, their net interest income (NII) was diluted in return for more profitable core lending. But which euro zone bank, most of which are already struggling for any level of meaningful profitability, is going to sacrifice NII for a negative deposit rate at the ECB when they won’t be able to lend the released capital as there is no demand in Europe?

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Great metaphor.

Tsipras Says ’Fiscal Waterboarding’ Holding Greece Back (BW)

Anti-austerity leader Alexis Tsipras said Greece can’t repay its debt as long as its creditors enforce “fiscal waterboarding” and signaled he’ll boost government spending if his Syriza alliance wins power. In an op-ed article in Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper today, Tsipras said the notion that Greece’s economy has stabilized is an “arbitrary distortion of the facts.” He said that while the economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, the recession isn’t over because inflation was a negative 1.8%. “We’re facing a shameful embellishment of the statistics to justify the effectiveness of troika policies,” said Tsipras, whose alliance leads Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s party in polls for parliamentary elections on Jan. 25. Tsipras’s comments addressed audiences in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel has led Europe’s austerity-first response to the debt crisis that spread from Greece in 2010.

The German Finance Ministry declined to comment yesterday on the possibility of a Greek debt cut, one of Tsipras’s demands. “German taxpayers have nothing to fear from a Syriza government,” Tsipras said. “Our goal is not to seek confrontation with our partners, more credits or a blank check for new deficits.” Instead, Syriza would seek a “new deal within the framework of the euro zone” that allows the Greek government to finance growth and restore the nation’s debt sustainability,’’ Tsipras said. Greece’s election hinges on whether voters are willing to accept an extension of the conditions attached to the country’s international bailouts. Greek bond yields declined yesterday by the most since October as concern eased that a Syriza election victory would result in Greece leaving the euro. “The truth is that Greece’s debt cannot be repaid as long as our economy is subjected to constant fiscal waterboarding,” Tsipras said in Handelsblatt.

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Bad news for Oz.

Cheap Gas Makes US Only Place Where Export Makes Sense (Bloomberg)

While plunging prices tied to oil have derailed natural gas export projects from Australia to Africa, U.S. plans to build new terminals are getting a boost from a pricing system that charges a set fee to liquefy and ship the gas. The U.S. model is based on how much gas is bought, not on the price of Brent, the global crude oil benchmark. Linking the price of liquefied gas, or LNG, made sense when Brent was above $100 a barrel. Now, it’s priced at less than $50 after losing more than half its value in six months. That means new LNG facilities whose output remains tied to crude prices will struggle to make money even as more capacity comes online.

U.S. suppliers, meanwhile, can be expected to deliver deliver some profits even as energy markets slump, said Chris McDougall at Westlake Securities in Austin, Texas. “Oil prices have dropped but U.S. LNG still looks good,” McDougall said in a telephone interview. “There are enough buyers that are willing to commit to paying some fee for the ability to access U.S. gas pricing.” The deals that link crude and LNG prices are widely used in Asia, at a cost of about 14% of the value of a barrel of Brent for every million British thermal units of gas. Falling oil prices mean cheaper LNG, making the fuel from the region more competitive with U.S. exports and more attractive to buyers. For sellers, sliding prices threaten profit for LNG terminals.

Projects in Australia, for example, would get less than $7 per million Btu of LNG; they need at least $14 to make a profit, according to a study from Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs. Those figures put U.S.-based suppliers in a winning position, said Leonardo Maugeri at the Belfer Center. At the same time, the U.S. has lower labor and capital costs than Australia, where LNG construction has strained a limited workforce and sent salaries soaring. LNG plants in the U.S. “have the best economics,” said Mauger, a former executive at Italian oil producer Eni SpA, in a telephone interview. “Projects still on paper in Australia for sure will be postponed or will die, and that’s it.”

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Not sure such comparisons are overly useful.

Oil Collapse of 1986 Shows Rebound Could Be Years Away (Bloomberg)

The last time excess supply caused a plunge in oil, it took almost five years for prices to recover. The CHART OF THE DAY shows how West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, tumbled 69% from $31.82 a barrel in November 1985 to $9.75 in April 1986 when Saudi Arabia, tiring of cutting output to support prices, flooded the market. Prices didn’t claw back the losses until 1990. Oil has dropped 57% since June and OPEC members say they’re willing to let prices sink further. Surging prices in the 1970s led to the development of the North Sea and Alaska oil fields. OPEC members also increased capacity, leaving the Saudis to trim output when demand softened. In the 1980s, Saudi Arabia “was tired of the other members cheating and just opened the spigots,” Walter Zimmerman at United-ICAP who predicted last year’s drop, said.

After the plunge in prices “the Saudis lost their nerve and they resumed the role of swing producer. If they hadn’t lost their nerve, we wouldn’t be seeing the shale oil boom today and North Sea production would be substantially lower because investment would have been less,” he said. Investment in new production surged as futures averaged $95.77 a barrel in 2011 through 2013. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked supplies from shale formations, sending U.S. oil output to the highest level in three decades. Russian oil production rose to a post-Soviet record last month and Iraq exported the most oil since the 1980s in December. “If they had allowed prices to stay lower they would have saved themselves many problems in the long run,” Zimmerman said. “Many reserves we take for granted would have never been developed.”

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Who do they think they’re fooling?

As Oil Slips Below $50, Canada Digs In for Long Haul (WSJ)

In the escalating war of attrition among top oil-producing nations, Canada’s biggest oil-sands mines have a message for the market: Don’t look to us to cut production. Long the unloved stepchild of so-called unconventional crude production, the oil sands have lured some of the world’s top energy producers to a remote corner of Northern Alberta where the heavy oil deposits are richest. There, they have plowed billions of dollars into building up a sprawling industrial complex amid the surrounding forests. And even as oil prices settled below $50 a barrel Monday for the first time in nearly six years, those companies are unlikely to shut off the tap anytime soon thanks to those huge upfront costs, combined with long-term break-even points and lengthy production lives.

Unlike shale oil, which requires constant drilling of new wells to maintain output levels, once an oil-sands site is developed it will produce tens or hundreds of thousands of barrels a day, steadily, for up to three decades. On Monday, major producer Canadian Natural became the latest to underscore the resilience of oil-sands growth. The company said lower oil prices will force it to trim investment on new projects and curtail its growth forecast—but it still expects overall output to grow about 7% over 2014 levels, and it vowed to keep spending on expanding output at its biggest oil-sands mine over the next two years. Oil prices tumbled to fresh lows Monday as two major banks slashed their price forecasts for crude amid a global supply glut. U.S. oil for February delivery fell 4.7% to $46.07 a barrel.

Brent, the global benchmark, dropped 5.3% to $47.43 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both are at their lowest point in almost six years. Canadian Natural will continue expanding production because it expects higher volume will cut operating expenses at its mainstay Horizon mine, currently at 37.13 Canadian dollars a barrel, by at least another CAN$10 dollars a barrel. “A lot of the costs are fixed in nature,” Chief Financial Officer Corey Bieber said in an interview Monday. “You don’t necessarily increase your workforce in a corresponding ratio [with production]. If you can increase your denominator and manage your numerator effectively, you wind up with a lower cost per barrel.”

Canadian crude exports to the U.S. exceeded 3 million barrels a day in 2014, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a record volume that helped displace other imports, and producers here are looking to tap European and Asian markets. Moves such as those by Canadian Natural ensure the oil sands will continue adding to the global oil glut for a long time to come, regardless of the price of crude. That has implications for spot prices, other major oil producers around the world and the future of key infrastructure plays like the Keystone XL pipeline.

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Dead in the water.

Arctic Explorers Retreat From Hostile Waters With Oil Prices Low (Bloomberg)

When Statoil acquired the last of three licenses off Greenland’s west coast in January 2012, oil at more than $110 a barrel made exploring the iceberg-ridden waters an attractive proposition. Less than two years later, the price of oil had been cut by almost half and Norway’s Statoil, the world’s most active offshore Arctic explorer in 2014, relinquished its interest in all three licenses in December without drilling a single well, Knut Rostad, a spokesman, said. Statoil’s decision shows how the plunge in oil, with Brent crude trading at about $45 a barrel, has dealt another blow to companies and governments hoping to tap the largely unexplored Arctic. That threatens to demote the importance of a region already challenged by high costs, environmental concerns, technological obstacles and, in the case of Russia, international sanctions.

“At $50, it just doesn’t make sense,” James Henderson at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said. “Arctic exploration has almost certainly been significantly undermined for the rest of this decade.” The Arctic – spanning Russia, Norway, Greenland, the U.S. and Canada – accounts for more than 20% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas resources, including an estimated 134 billion barrels of crude and other liquids and 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That’s almost as much oil as Iraq’s proved reserves at the end of 2013 and 50% more gas than Russia had booked, BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy shows. Yet, explorers seeking a piece of the Arctic prize have been tripped up for years.

After spending $6 billion searching for oil off Alaska over the past eight years, Royal Dutch Shell in October asked for an extension of licenses as setbacks including a stranded oil rig and lawsuits risk delaying drilling further. Cairn Energy spent $1 billion exploring Greenland’s west coast in 2010 and 2011 without making commercial discoveries, and Gazprom has shelved its Shtokman gas field in the Barents Sea indefinitely on cost challenges. Environmental group Greenpeace has occupied oil rigs from Norway to Russia, arguing a spill would cause irreparable damage to ecosystems that sustain animals from polar bears to birds and fish. The possibility that economically marginal fields such as Arctic deposits might be stranded as governments adopt stricter climate policies has also shaken some investors.

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“The expectation has been that every generation will do better than the last, but this may not be the case with those who bought homes during the economic boom.”

Prepare For The Largest Wealth Transfer In History (MarketWatch)

While most of us are struggling to regain our net worth after the Great Recession, the richest Americans are preparing to transfer $6 trillion in assets over the next three decades. According to a new report by global wealth consultancy Wealth-X, $16 trillion of global wealth will be transferred over that time — mostly to family members — and 40% of that, or $6 trillion, will be transferred within the U.S. Of that $16 trillion, $6 trillion will be liquid assets and philanthropic bequests comprise $300 billion of this upcoming wealth transfer, Wealth-X found. Ultra-high net worth individuals who are 80 years old or above are on average five times wealthier than those under 40. “This will be the largest wealth transfer in history from one generation to the next,” says Wealth-X President David Friedman.

And many of those passing on their wealth are self-made individuals. Only 25% of those on the Forbes list of the 400 richest Americans were self-made billionaires in 1984, compared with 43% last year. The wealth of the Forbes 400 has soared 1,832% since 1984, from $125 billion to $2.29 trillion last year. Upper-income Americans have also fared well over the last three decades. The wealth gap between America’s upper-income and middle-income families has reached its highest level on record, according to the Pew Research Center. In 2013, the median wealth of the nation’s upper-income families ($639,400) was nearly 7 times the median wealth of middle-income families ($96,500), the widest wealth gap seen in 30 years.

Middle-class Americans won’t be so fortunate when it comes to transferring wealth, however. The expectation has been that every generation will do better than the last, but this may not be the case with those who bought homes during the economic boom. All American households since the recovery have started to reduce their ownership of key assets, such as homes, stocks and business equity, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center. From 2007 to 2010, the median net worth of American families decreased by 40%, from $135,700 to $82,300. Rapidly plunging house prices and a stock market crash were the immediate contributors to this shellacking. “Such a large transfer of wealth [among the ultra-wealthy] will exacerbate wealth inequality,” says Signe-Mary McKernan at the Urban Institute. “African-American and Hispanic families are about five times less likely than white families to inherit money and when they do inherit money they inherit less than white families.”

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“The underlying lack of confidence in the eurozone remained “and that really doesn’t depend very much on whether Germany digs a few more holes and fills them in afterwards again”

Germany Balances Budget For First Time Since 1969 (Guardian)

Germany has balanced the federal budget for the first time in more than 40 years, helped by strong tax revenues and rock-bottom interest rates, but the extra leeway is unlikely to translate into spending that could boost weak eurozone growth. Berlin had been aiming to achieve a schwarze Null – a balanced budget or one in the black – this year but the finance ministry announced on Tuesday it had got there in 2014, a year ahead of schedule. It is the first time since 1969 that Germany has achieved the feat and is a domestic and European political fillip for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government, which wrote the goal into a coalition agreement in late 2013 and has preached budget discipline to Greece and other indebted eurozone countries.

Peter Tauber, general secretary of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party (CDU), said the budget was a historic success and sent a clear signal to the rest of Europe that Berlin was leading by example and only spending money in its coffers. “This marks a turning point in financial policy: We’ve finally put an end to living beyond our means on credit,” he said. But while Europe’s biggest economy is under pressure from European partners to spend more, some Germans have harboured deep-seated fears of inflation since the hyperinflation of the 1920s that wiped out an entire generation’s savings and many have an aversion to debt.

Christian Schulz, economist at Berenberg Bank, said the government had staked a lot of credibility on balancing the budget and would reap a political dividend from voters “who are very keen on the German government not borrowing more”. But although more spending could boost domestic demand in Germany and imports from the rest of Europe, Schulz said it was unlikely to be at levels that could significantly affect euro zone growth. The underlying lack of confidence in the eurozone remained “and that really doesn’t depend very much on whether Germany digs a few more holes and fills them in afterwards again”, he said.

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According to Ambrose, all Brits are geniuses. I doubt that.

Half The World Covets The UK’s Precious Inflation (AEP)

Inflation is now the most precious commodity in the developed world. The great economic powers are almost all trying to steal a little from each other by currency warfare. Perfidious Albion got there first. We are good at the game. Britain still has an emergency reserve, thanks to the good judgement of the Bank of England. The Monetary Policy Committee ignored the howling commentariat and the hard money populists when headline inflation spiked above 5pc. “The MPC should not be obsessive about bringing inflation back to target as rapidly as possible,” was how they nonchalantly put it in the minutes from January 2008. The Bank of England ploughed on with full-blown quantitative easing even through the inflation scare of 2011. That showed courage. Historians will judge this to have been a masterful decision.

The effect was to erode the real debt stock, slash the ratio of household debt to disposable income from 170pc to 147pc, and broadly stabilize the overall debt trajectory. It ensured that the recovery reached “escape velocity” despite the headwinds of fiscal tightening. The UK revived the successful reflation formula of the mid-1930s. It eschewed the failed deflationary formula of the 1920s, which merely pushed debt ratios even higher. The shock fall in CPI inflation to 0.5pc does not yet put Britain at risk. Inflation expectations remain at safe levels. They are not close to becoming “unhinged” – with all kinds of nasty self-fulfilling consequences – though the experience of Japan and now the eurozone tells us how suddenly if can happen if you let your guard down.

The beauty of having a safety buffer is that you can enjoy the benefits of an oil-price crash – a “positive supply shock” in the jargon – without sliding into a debt-deflation trap. It acts as a tax cut. Enjoy it. It is no great mystery why the world is edging from “lowflation” to deflation. It lies in the structure of globalisation over the last quarter century. Above all it lies in China. Chinese factory gate prices are falling at a rate of 3.3pc. There is massive spare capacity. The country’s fixed investment was $8 trillion last year, more than in Europe and North America combined. The country is exporting deflation worldwide. And so is Japan. As I wrote in last week’s column, there is an excess of global capital. The world’s savings rate keeps rising and has hit a record 26pc of GDP. One culprit is the $12 trillion accumulation of foreign reserves by central banks, money that is pulled out of consumption and instead floods the bond market. Large parts of Pacific Rim and central Europe have reached a demographic tipping point. Call it worldwide “secular stagnation” if you want.

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“Debt to GDP ratio in the region excluding Japan rose to 203% in 2013 from 147% in 2007, with most of the increase coming from companies ..”

Plunging Oil Prices, Rising Debt Leaves Asia Staring at Deflation (Bloomberg)

Asia’s rapid accumulation of debt in recent years is holding back central banks from easing monetary policy to fight the risk of deflation, endangering private investment needed to boost faltering growth, according to Morgan Stanley. Debt to GDP ratio in the region excluding Japan rose to 203% in 2013 from 147% in 2007, with most of the increase coming from companies, analysts led by Chetan Ahya wrote in a report yesterday. The ratio is close to or has exceeded 200% in seven of 10 nations including China and South Korea, they said. Deflation risk is spreading from Europe to Asia as oil prices plunge, raising the specter of companies and consumers postponing spending and threatening a recovery in the global economy.

Asia could take its cue from the U.S. where a policy of keeping real rates low after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis encouraged private-sector investment and boosted productive growth, the analysts said. “When real rates are high, only the public sector or government-linked companies will take on leverage,” the Morgan Stanley economists wrote in the report. The key concern with an approach of keeping real rates at elevated levels is that the private sector will remain hesitant to take up new investment, which is critical for reviving productivity, the report said. Asia’s policy makers are balancing the need to support domestic demand and curbing debt and asset bubbles. While China cut its one-year lending rate in November, officials have held off on broader easing measures as they sought to avoid exacerbating a build-up in nonperforming loans.

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“We’ve got the biggest debt bubble that the world has ever seen and credit is continuing to grow twice as fast” as output ..”

For China, Even Good Numbers Don’t Add Up (Bloomberg)

The improving U.S. economy has brought some welcome cheer to officials in Beijing, which reported an unexpectedly high 9.7% jump in December exports on Tuesday. If those numbers continued in months ahead, they’d also be good news for a global economy that’s running short on viable growth engines. Not all analysts are convinced they will; many predict that China will have to loosen monetary policy soon in order to ensure that GDP growth stays above last year’s target of 7.5% (it’s currently around 7.3%). That’s worrisome because of a different number entirely: 251. That, in percentage terms, is Standard Chartered’s working estimate for China’s debt-to-GDP ratio. Already worryingly high compared to where Japan was 25 years ago when its own bubble burst, the number will only rise further with additional stimulus.

The more China gins up growth in 2015, the more irresponsible lending it will have to service in the decade ahead. The math simply doesn’t work out. Even if China could somehow return to the heady days of 10%-plus GDP growth, its debt mountain would by then be nearly unmanageable. “We’ve got the biggest debt bubble that the world has ever seen and credit is continuing to grow twice as fast” as output, Charlene Chu, a former Fitch Ratings analyst, said. Those who believe China can somehow grow its way out of this problem are fooling themselves. “Mathematically, that’s impossible when something is twice as big as something else and growing twice as fast,” as Chu noted. From Japan to Argentina to Greece, recent decades offer many examples of governments thinking 1+1=3.

It took Japan more than a decade after its bubble burst in 1990 to create the Resolution and Collection Corporation, modeled after America’s Resolution Trust Corporation, to dispose of bad loans. China can’t afford to wait that long to head off a full-blown crisis. It’s one thing for a $24 billion economy like Argentina to blow up; it would be quite another if the world’s second-biggest plunged into turmoil. Yet for all the official talk about curbing borrowing and adjusting to a “new normal” of lower growth, Xi’s government still hasn’t shown the stomach necessary to bring China’s debt problems out into the open and deal with them. Even one of the first defaults on an offshore bond by a Chinese developer last week ended happily. Kaisa Group missed a $23 million interest payment, but quickly received a waiver from HSBC. Since all property companies won’t get last-minute reprieves, these kind of maneuvers just delay a reckoning.

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Much of this is Communist Party members and their families.

China’s $300 Billion Errors May Mask Illicit Outflows (Bloomberg)

China’s balance of payments figures are suggesting a pickup in covert fund outflows, which may spur the central bank to keep the yuan stable, according to Goldman Sachs. Errors and omissions, an accounting practice used by nations to balance numbers when official records of cross-border flows don’t match, were equivalent to net outflows of more than $300 billion since 2010, Goldman Sachs economists MK Tang and Maggie Wei wrote. That included a record $63 billion in the third quarter of 2014, a year in which yuan sentiment soured and President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive widened. “Such outflows probably have an illicit nature, occurring through opaque channels and falling outside of effective regulatory oversight,’” Tang and Wei wrote.

“Illicit flows are probably harder to control and hence could represent a more worrying source of risk to financial stability.” President Xi’s campaign to rein in corruption has ensnared more than 480 officials spanning all of China’s provinces and largest cities. Cash outflows may tighten funding conditions at a time when the government is attempting to lower borrowing costs to boost an economy estimated to have grown at the slowest pace since 1990 last year. One-year interest-rate swaps, the fixed payment to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, have risen 18 basis points to 3.32% since the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates in November for the first time since 2012. The yield on the five-year government bond has risen four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 3.52%.

As falling confidence in the yuan will exacerbate any hidden outflows, the PBOC may aim to maintain a stable exchange rate, according to the Goldman Sachs economists. The U.S. lender expects the authority to weaken its daily fixing for the yuan only slightly to 6.16 a dollar in three months and to 6.20 in a year, compared with 6.1195 today. It is not in the authority’s interest to allow the yuan to decline because that could lead to capital outflows and increase financial risk, Australia & New Zealand Banking economists Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao said. The currency is unlikely to drop sharply in 2015, they wrote.

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Carnage awaits. Everything is overvalued thanks to QE.

Standard Chartered Loses $4.4 Billion On Commodities, Must Raise Cash (Reuters)

Asia-focused bank Standard Chartered could need $4.4 billion of extra provisions to cover losses from commodities loans, potentially forcing it to raise billions of dollars from investors, analysts said on Monday. Credit Suisse analysts said the losses could force Standard Chartered to raise $6.9 billion to improve its core capital ratio to 11% by the end of the year. “We think the needed provisioning could be large enough to require further capital measures, such as further equity raisin, and/or dividend reductions,” analyst Carla Antunes-Silva said in a note. A jump in Standard Chartered’s bad debts in the third quarter has prompted concern that it could face heavy losses from commodities loans after the fall in the price of oil and commodities.

Credit Suisse’s estimate was based on an “adverse” scenario that would see the bank need $4.4 billion to maintain its capital ratio, based on a potential $2.6 billion of pretax provisioning for commodities loans that sour and a higher risk-weighting on the loans. It said the bank could announce a rights issue or cut the dividend at its 2014 results, due on March 4. “We believe the last two years of de-rating have been driven largely by weaker revenue and that the asset quality deterioration leg is now setting in,” said Credit Suisse, maintaining its “underperform” rating on the stock.

Analysts at JPMorgan and Jefferies also cut their target prices on the stock on Monday, saying that credit quality could deteriorate. Standard Chartered CEO Peter Sands is under pressure after a troubled two years in which profits have fallen, halting a decade of record earnings. Some investors have said that Sands should go or the bank should set out succession plans. Sands last week announced plans to close the bulk of the bank’s equities business and axe 4,000 jobs in retail banking as part of a turnaround plan to cut costs and sharpen its focus.

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Here’s your democracy, America.

Middle Eastern Governments Are on Shopping Spree for Former Congressmen (Vice)

For ex-congressman and GOP strategist Vin Weber, Christmas came a few days early and from an unlikely source: the Qatari government. In December, three days before the holiday, the former Minnesota lawmaker and his lobbying firm, Mercury, signed a lucrative lobbying contract with the Gulf State,receiving a $465,000 advance for the first few months of work. Weber isn’t alone. Over the past year and a half, regimes throughout the Middle East, from Turkey to the United Arab Emirates, have gone on what appears to be a shopping spree for former members of Congress. Compared to the rest of the world, Middle East governments have accounted for more than 50% of the latest revolving door hires for former lawmakers during this time period, according to a review of disclosures by VICE. It’s not out of the ordinary for special interest groups to enlist retired lawmakers-turned-lobbyists to peddle influence in the U.S. Capitol.

What’s unique here is that most special interests aren’t countries home to investors accused of providing support to anti-American militants in Syria or engaged in multi-billion dollar arms deals that require American military approval, as is the case with Qatar and some of its regional neighbors. What’s also striking about the latest surge in foreign lobbying is that many of these former lawmakers maintain influence that extends well beyond the halls of Congress. Former Michigan Representative Pete Hoekstra, who used to chair the House Intelligence Committee, appears regularly in the media to demand that the US increase its arms assistance to the Kurds in northern Iraq. Writing for the conservative news outlet National Review, Hoekstra argued that, “the United States needs to immediately provide [the Peshmerga] with more than light arms and artillery to tip the scales in their favor and overcome the firepower of the Islamists.”

In that instance and in others, Hoekstra has often not disclosed that since August 12th, he has worked as a paid representative of the Kurdistan Regional Government, which relies on the beleaguered Peshmerga militia for safety against ISIS. The same goes for former US Senator Norm Coleman, a lobbyist who serves on the board of the influential Republican Jewish Coalition, and whose Super PAC, American Action Network, spent over $12.3 million to help elect Republicans last year. Since July, Coleman has been a registered lobbyist for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, hired in part to work on sanctions against Iran, a key priority of Saudi Arabia’s ruling family. Shortly after signing up as a lobbyist for the Saudis, Coleman, introduced only as a former Senator, gave a speech on Capitol Hill imploring his congressional allies to realize that Israel and Saudi Arabia have many shared policy priorities, and that the United States “should be hand in glove with our allies in the region.”.

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Throw it out already!

EU-US TTIP Trade Talks Hit Investor Protection Snag (BBC)

EU-US talks aimed at clinching a comprehensive free trade deal have run up against “huge scepticism” in Europe, the European Commission says. The Commission has published the results of a public consultation on investor protection – one of the most contentious areas under discussion. There were many objections to the idea of using independent tribunals with power to overrule national policies. A lot of work is needed on future investment rules, the Commission says. The talks on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) are continuing, but the important area of investor protection has been suspended for now. There are widespread fears in Europe that EU standards might be weakened in some areas, in a trade-off to satisfy powerful business lobbies and revive Europe’s struggling economies.

A Commission study estimates that a TTIP deal could boost the size of the EU economy by €120bn (£94bn; $152bn) – equal to 0.5% of the 28-member bloc’s total GDP – and the US economy by €95bn (0.4% of GDP). But the Commission acknowledges public concern about court cases in which powerful companies have sued governments over public policy. Swedish energy giant Vattenfall brought a claim against the German government over its move to decommission nuclear power plants. And US tobacco giant Philip Morris sued the Australian government over the introduction of plain packaging for cigarettes. In the UK concern has focused on the National Health Service and the possible involvement of US firms in healthcare services. Of the total responses in the consultation 35% came from the UK – the largest share – and Austria was second.

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“Under the new law, the grounds for a ban on any GM variety will be expanded. National governments will in future be able to cite factors such as protection of a particular ecosystem or the high cost of GM contamination for conventional farmers.”

EU Changes Rules On GMO Crop Cultivation (BBC)

The EU has given governments more power to decide whether to plant genetically modified (GM) crops, which are highly restricted in Europe. The European Parliament has passed a new law giving states more flexibility by a big majority. A type of maize – MON 810 – is the only GM crop grown commercially in the EU. Although Euro MPs and ministers have agreed to give states more flexibility, EU scientists will still play a key role in authorisations. GM crops are used widely in the US and Asia, but many Europeans are wary of their impact on health and wildlife. It is one of the toughest issues at the EU-US talks on a free trade deal, as farming patterns in Europe – including GM use – differ greatly from North America. The new law only applies to crops and does not cover GM used in animal feed, which can still enter the human food chain indirectly.

Last July the new EU Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said the legal changes were necessary because under current rules “the Commission is legally obliged to authorise the import and processing of new GMOs [genetically modified organisms], even in cases where a clear majority of member states are opposed to their use”. Spain is by far the biggest grower of MON 810 in Europe, with 137,000 hectares (338,000 acres), the European Commission says. Yet the EU total for MON 810 is just 1.56% of the EU’s total maize-growing area. MON 810 is marketed by US biotech giant Monsanto and is modified to be resistant to the European corn borer, a damaging insect pest. The maize variety is banned in Austria, Bulgaria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary and Luxembourg. Under the new law, the grounds for a ban on any GM variety will be expanded. National governments will in future be able to cite factors such as protection of a particular ecosystem or the high cost of GM contamination for conventional farmers.

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“Diesel vehicles that would have been phased out in Europe years ago choke its narrow lanes, making cloth face masks indispensable.”

Melting Glaciers Imperil Kathmandu, Perched High Above Rising Seas (Bloomberg)

A month’s walk from the nearest sea, Kathmandu – elevation almost a mile – is as vulnerable to climate change as the world’s coastal megacities. The capital of the poorest Asian country after Afghanistan already is feeling the effect: Rising temperatures are crimping power and food supplies as rural migrants stream to a city of 1 million that’s among the world’s most crowded. “Kathmandu is the country’s production and consumption center,” said Mahfuzuddin Ahmed, an adviser in the Manila-based Asian Development Bank’s regional and sustainable development department. “Any climate-related hazards that spill into the national economy will be amplified there.” The mountainous Himalayan nation may have crossed a tipping point of irreversible damage. Its glaciers have lost about a third of their ice reserves since 1977.

Just like giant icebergs in the ocean, those glaciers play a critical role in the high-altitude jet streams that can delay monsoons, prolong droughts or spawn storms. “It’s affecting daily life,” says Ram Sharan Mahat, Nepal’s finance minister. He calculates the economy will grow half a percentage point slower this fiscal year because of an erratic monsoon that hit crops, the mainstay of the economy. “I’m sure that’s largely attributable to climate change.” Ahmed led a June study projecting Nepal could lose 10% of its annual gross domestic product by 2100 because of climate change. That makes it the second-most vulnerable in the region after the Maldives. There’s something a mountain city like Kathmandu – some 600 miles (966 kilometers) from the Indian Ocean – shares with an atoll threatened with extinction from rising seas: a spectacular incapacity to do much about it.

An acrid brown smog shrouds the metropolis, obscuring the snow-capped Himalayan peaks in the distance that beckon trekkers worldwide. Diesel vehicles that would have been phased out in Europe years ago choke its narrow lanes, making cloth face masks indispensable. Residents shop for vegetables and spices by candlelight amid blackouts lasting most of the day in the winter, when hydropower plants sputter as snow-fed rivers dry up. Garbage has turned the city’s sacred Bagmati River into a sewer, too filthy for fish to survive, though Hindu worshipers still bathe in its waters.Economists and environmental experts warn that climate change will hurt those who have the least because they don’t have the resources or capacity to minimize the threats.

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Nov 252014
 
 November 25, 2014  Posted by at 10:47 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  3 Responses »


Taylor Deluxe Kauneel auto trailer, Bay City, Michigan May 1936

“We Are Starting To Break Down”: Why So Many Americans Feel Traumatized (Salon)
Buy the All Time High (James Howard Kunstler)
The Dismal Economy: 148 Million Government Beneficiaries (Lance Roberts)
The Mystery Of America’s “Schrodinger” Middle Class (Zero Hedge)
Overvalued, Overbought, Overbullish, Extremely Vulnerable Markets (Hussman)
Canada Moving Toward American-Style Inequality (CTV)
Oil Seen Dropping Another $30 by ICAP on Commodity, Dollar Cycle (Bloomberg)
Market Manipulation Of Oil Prices Backfires On Those That Start It: Putin (RT)
Global Growth To Get $200 Billion Kick From Oil Price Crash (Telegraph)
How The Fed Has Boxed US Into An Easy-Money Corner (Satyajit Das)
The Week That Shook the Fed (Gretchen Morgenson)
Eurozone Yields Hit Record Lows: Is ECB Trumping Reality? (CNBC)
Bundesbank’s Weidmann Warns Of ‘Legal Limits’ On Further Moves By ECB (Reuters)
German Bond Yields To Trump Japan As ECB Battles Deflation (AEP)
Greece Bailout Talks Resume Amid Concerns Over Exit (Reuters)
Britain’s EU Retreat Means German Hegemony Warns Prodi (AEP)
BOJ Minutes Show Bazooka Is All About The Message (CNBC)
Kuroda Tells Japan Inc. to Stop Hoarding Cash as Costs to Rise (Bloomberg)
Hedge Funds Lose Money for Everyone, Not Just the Rich (Bloomberg)
Dudley Defense Leaves Senators Unimpressed as Fed Scrutiny Rises (Bloomberg)
Even Brazil’s President Is Involved In The Petrobras Scandal (CNBC)
Summit of Failure: How the EU Lost Russia over Ukraine (Spiegel)
In Wake Of China Rejections, GMO Seed Makers Limit US Launches (Reuters)

An absolute must read by Lynn Stuart Parramore.

“We Are Starting To Break Down”: Why So Many Americans Feel Traumatized (Salon)

Recently Don Hazen, the executive editor of AlterNet, asked me to think about trauma in the context of America’s political system. As I sifted through my thoughts on this topic, I began to sense an enormous weight in my body and a paralysis in my brain. What could I say? What could I possibly offer to my fellow citizens? Or to myself? After six years writing about the financial crisis and its gruesome aftermath, I feel weariness and fear. When I close my eyes, I see a great ogre with gold coins spilling from his pockets and pollution spewing from his maw lurching toward me with increasing speed. I don’t know how to stop him. Do you feel this way, too?

All along the watchtower, America’s alarms are sounding loudly. Voter turnout this last go-round was the worst in 72 years, as if we needed another sign that faith in democracy is waning. Is it really any wonder? When your choices range from the corrupt to the demented, how can you not feel that citizenship is a sham? Research by Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page clearly shows that our lawmakers create policy based on the desires of monied elites while “mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence.” Our voices are not heard.

When our government does pay attention to us, the focus seems to be more on intimidation and control than addressing our needs. We are surveilled through our phones and laptops. As the New York Times recently reported, a surge in undercover operations from a bewildering array of agencies has unleashed an army of unsupervised rogues poised to spy upon and victimize ordinary people rather than challenge the real predators who pillage at will. Aggressive and militarized police seem more likely to harm us than to protect us, even to mow us down if necessary. Our policies amplify the harm. The mentally ill are locked away in solitary confinement, and even left there to die. Pregnant women in need of medical treatment are arrested and criminalized. Young people simply trying to get an education are crippled with debt. The elderly are left to wander the country in RVs in search of temporary jobs. If you’ve seen yourself as part of the middle class, you may have noticed cries of agony ripping through your ranks in ways that once seemed to belong to worlds far away.

[..] A 2012 study of hospital patients in Atlanta’s inner-city communities showed that rates of post-traumatic stress are now on par with those of veterans returning from war zones. At least 1 out of 3 surveyed said they had experienced stress responses like flashbacks, persistent fear, a sense of alienation, and aggressive behavior. All across the country, in Detroit, New Orleans, and in what historian Louis Ferleger describes as economic “dead zones” — places where people have simply given up and sunk into “involuntary idleness” — the pain is written on slumped bodies and faces that have become masks of despair. We are starting to break down.

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Brilliant piece by buddy Jim: “All of these evil systems have to go and must be replaced by more straightforward and honest endeavors aimed at growing food, doing trade, healing people, traveling, building places worth living in, and learning useful things.”

Buy the All Time High (James Howard Kunstler)

Wall Street is only one of several financial roach motels in what has become a giant slum of a global economy. Notional “money” scuttles in for safety and nourishment, but may never get out alive. Tom Friedman of The New York Times really put one over on the soft-headed American public when he declared in a string of books that the global economy was a permanent installation in the human condition. What we’re seeing “out there” these days is the basic operating system of that economy trying to shake itself to pieces. The reason it has to try so hard is that the various players in the global economy game have constructed an armature of falsehood to hold it in place — for instance the pipeline of central bank “liquidity” creation that pretends to be capital propping up markets.

It would be most accurate to call it fake wealth. It is not liquid at all but rather gaseous, and that is why it tends to blow “bubbles” in the places to which it flows. When the bubbles pop, the gas will tend to escape quickly and dramatically, and the ground will be littered with the pathetic broken balloons of so many hopes and dreams. All of this mighty, tragic effort to prop up a matrix of lies might have gone into a set of activities aimed at preserving the project of remaining civilized. But that would have required the dismantling of rackets such as agri-business, big-box commerce, the medical-hostage game, the Happy Motoring channel-stuffing scam, the suburban sprawl “industry,” and the higher ed loan swindle.

All of these evil systems have to go and must be replaced by more straightforward and honest endeavors aimed at growing food, doing trade, healing people, traveling, building places worth living in, and learning useful things. All of those endeavors have to become smaller, less complex, more local, and reality-based — rather than based, as now, on overgrown and sinister intermediaries creaming off layers of value, leaving nothing behind but a thin entropic gruel of waste. All of this inescapable reform is being held up by the intransigence of a banking system that can’t admit that it has entered the stage of criticality. It sustains itself on its sheer faith in perpetual levitation. It is reasonable to believe that upsetting that faith might lead to war.

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The numbers are getting insane.

The Dismal Economy: 148 Million Government Beneficiaries (Lance Roberts)

.. the Federal Reserve has stopped their latest rounds of bond buying and are now starting to discuss the immediacy of increasing interest rates. This, of course, is based on the “hopes” that the economy has started to grow organically as headline unemployment rates have fallen to just 5.9%. If such activity were real then both inflation and wage pressures should be rising – they are not. According to the Congressional Budget Office study that was just released, approximately 60% of all U.S. households get more in transfer payments from the government than they pay in taxes.

Roughly 70% of all government spending now goes toward dependence-creating programs. From 2009 through 2013, the U.S. government spent an astounding 3.7 trillion dollars on welfare programs. In fact, today, the percentage of the U.S. population that gets money from the federal government grew by an astounding 62% between 1988 and 2011. Recent analysis of U.S. government numbers conducted by Terrence P. Jeffrey, shows that there are 86 million full-time private sector workers in the United States paying taxes to support the government, and nearly 148 million Americans that are receiving benefits from the government each month.

Yet Janet Yellen, and most other mainstream economists suggests that employment is booming in the U.S. Okay, if we assume that this is indeed the case then why, according to the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the U.S. Census, are well over 100 million Americans are enrolled in at least one welfare program run by the federal government. Importantly, that figure does not even include Social Security or Medicare. (Here are the numbers for Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare: More than 64 million are receiving Social Security benefits, more than 54 million Americans are enrolled in Medicare and more than 70 million Americans are enrolled in Medicaid.) Furthermore, how do you explain the chart below? With roughly 45% of the working age population sitting outside the labor force, it should not be surprising that the ratio of social welfare as a percentage of real, inflation-adjusted, disposable personal income is at the highest level EVER on record.

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This is how you can pretend to have a recovery.

The Mystery Of America’s “Schrodinger” Middle Class (Zero Hedge)

On one hand, the US middle class has rarely if ever had it worse. At least, if one actually dares to venture into this thing called the real world, and/or believes the NYT’s report: “Falling Wages at Factories Squeeze the Middle Class.” Some excerpts:

For nearly 20 years, Darrell Eberhardt worked in an Ohio factory putting together wheelchairs, earning $18.50 an hour, enough to gain a toehold in the middle class and feel respected at work. He is still working with his hands, assembling seats for Chevrolet Cruze cars at the Camaco auto parts factory in Lorain, Ohio, but now he makes $10.50 an hour and is barely hanging on. “I’d like to earn more,” said Mr. Eberhardt, who is 49 and went back to school a few years ago to earn an associate’s degree. “But the chances of finding something like I used to have are slim to none.” Even as the White House and leaders on Capitol Hill and in Fortune 500 boardrooms all agree that expanding the country’s manufacturing base is a key to prosperity, evidence is growing that the pay of many blue-collar jobs is shrinking to the point where they can no longer support a middle-class life.

In short: America’s manufacturing sector is being obliterated: “A new study by the National Employment Law Project, to be released on Friday, reveals that many factory jobs nowadays pay far less than what workers in almost identical positions earned in the past.

Perhaps even more significant, while the typical production job in the manufacturing sector paid more than the private sector average in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, that relationship flipped in 2007, and line work in factories now pays less than the typical private sector job. That gap has been widening — in 2013, production jobs paid an average of $19.29 an hour, compared with $20.13 for all private sector positions. Pressured by temporary hiring practices and a sharp decrease in salaries in the auto parts sector, real wages for manufacturing workers fell by 4.4% from 2003 to 2013, NELP researchers found, nearly three times the decline for workers as a whole.

How is this possible: aren’t post-bankruptcy GM, and Ford, now widely touted as a symbol of the New Normal American manufacturing renaissance? Well yes. But there is a problem: recall what we wrote in December 2010: ‘Charting America’s Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society:”

.. one of the most important reasons for lower pay is the increased use of temporary workers. Some manufacturers have turned to staffing agencies for hiring rather than employing workers directly on their own payroll. For the first half of 2014, these agencies supplied one out of seven workers employed by auto parts manufacturers. The increased use of these lower-paid workers, particularly on the assembly line, not only eats into the number of industry jobs available, but also has a ripple effect on full-time, regular workers. Even veteran full-time auto parts workers who have managed to work their way up the assembly-line chain of command have eked out only modest gains.

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“QE only misallocates capital toward more speculation and low-quality debt .. ”

Overvalued, Overbought, Overbullish, Extremely Vulnerable Markets (Hussman)

.. iwhen concerns about default are rising, default-free, low-interest rate money is not considered to be an inferior asset, and as a result, its increased availability does not provoke risk-seeking behavior. If we observe narrowing credit spreads and stronger uniformity in market internals, we will be able to infer a shift toward risk-seeking (and in turn, a greater likelihood that monetary easing will provoke further speculation). That won’t make stocks any cheaper, and downside risk will still need to be managed, but our immediate concerns would be less dire. At present, current market conditions and the lessons of history encourage us to be aware that very untidy market outcomes could unfold in very short order. [..] QE only misallocates capital toward more speculation and low-quality debt (primarily junk and leveraged loan issuance), without much impact on real growth. [..]

The upshot is this. Quantitative easing only “works” to the extent that default-free, low interest liquidity is viewed as an inferior holding. When investor psychology shifts toward increasing risk aversion – which we can reasonably measure through the uniformity or dispersion of market internals, the variation of credit spreads between risky and safe debt, and investor sponsorship as reflected in price-volume behavior – default-free, low-interest liquidity is no longer considered inferior. It’s actually desirable, so creating more of the stuff is not supportive to stock prices. We observed exactly that during the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 plunges, which took the S&P 500 down by half in each episode, even as the Fed was easing persistently and aggressively. A shift toward increasing internal dispersion and widening credit spreads leaves risky, overvalued, overbought, overbullish markets extremely vulnerable to air-pockets, free-falls, and crashes.

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It hurts to see Canada become so much like the US in so many ways.

Canada Moving Toward American-Style Inequality (CTV)

A prominent U.S. political economist says Canada is moving toward American-style inequality, and believes austerity economics and tax cuts for corporations are making the problem worse. Robert Reich, the secretary of labor during Bill Clinton’s presidency, now writes extensively on income equality and was in Canada this week speaking at an event for the Broadbent Institute. “The United States economy and the Canadian economy are going on parallel courses,” Reich said in an interview on CTV Question Period. With Japan moving into an official recession and much of Europe still mired in a slowdown, there’s still an idea that countries need to cut government spending during the recovery.

That kind of thinking, Reich says, has the effect of worsening the ratio of debt to the total economy. “Austerity economics does not work,” Reich said. “If you slow down the economy because government is cutting down so much that there’s not enough demand to keep the economy going, then you end up with a worse ratio of debt to GDP.” The U.S. and Canadian economies are growing too slowly, he says. And many wealthy people or corporations, he said, are putting their money in places where they can get the highest return – but that kind of investment isn’t what creates jobs. “Without customers, businesses are not going to create jobs,” he said.

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“The long-term cycle points to the dollar moving higher and the euro declining into 2016, while commodities move lower through 2016 and 2017.”

Oil Seen Dropping Another $30 by ICAP on Commodity, Dollar Cycle (Bloomberg)

New York-traded crude oil will probably drop another $30 in the next two years as long-term cycles in commodities and currencies converge, no matter what happens at this week’s OPEC meeting and Iran nuclear talks, according to brokerage United-ICAP. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, has collapsed five times since the contract’s introduction in 1983, said Walter Zimmerman, chief technical strategist for United-ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey. The plunges in 1986, 1991, 1998, 2001 and 2008 coincided with an OPEC price war, recessions and financial crises, and were also tied to cycles in commodities or the dollar, said Zimmerman, who was calling for a drop in oil prices as early as April. “This time we have both.”

“Crude is heading lower, with the high $40s or low $50s being touched by 2017,” Zimmerman said. The long-term cycle points to the dollar moving higher and the euro declining into 2016, while commodities move lower through 2016 and 2017, he said. The average drop during the previous five major declines was about 62%, according to Zimmerman. Oil prices have dropped 32% from the year’s high in June amid slower economic growth and surging production in the U.S. and OPEC members. The Bloomberg dollar index is up 10% since the low in May and the euro is down 12%. The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped 17% to a five-year low this month.

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“What is the profitability of this production like? It’s from $65 to $83 per barrel. Now when the price of a barrel of oil has fallen below $80, shale gas production becomes unprofitable.” said Putin.”

Market Manipulation Of Oil Prices Backfires On Those That Start It: Putin (RT)

The modern world is interdependent and there is no guarantee that sanctions, a sharp fall in oil prices, or the depreciation of the ruble won’t backfire on those who provoked them, says Russian President Vladimir Putin. “If undercharging for energy products occurs deliberately, it also hits those who introduce these limitations. Problems arise, they will continue to grow, worsening the situation, and not only for Russia but also for our partners, including oil and gas producing countries,” said Putin in an interview to TASS. The Russian leader suggested that the fall in oil prices is due to the sharp increase in the production of shale oil and gas by the United States, but questioned its commercial viability. “What is the profitability of this production like? It’s from $65 to $83 per barrel. Now when the price of a barrel of oil has fallen below $80, shale gas production becomes unprofitable.” said Putin.

The President said he sees objective reasons for the decline in oil prices. “The supply has increased from Libya, surprising as it may seem it produces more, Iraq as well, despite all the problems … ISIS sell oil illegally at $30 per barrel on the black market, Saudi Arabia increased its production and consumption decreased due to a period of stagnation or, say, a decrease compared with the forecasts of global economic growth,” he said. Talking about the Russian economy and the weakening ruble, Putin said the situation with oil prices doesn’t hit the budget as hard as expected. “…we are confident in solving social issues. Including the ones of the defense industry. Russia has its own base for import substitution,” he said. “Thank God, we’ve received a lot from previous generations, and that we’ve done much to modernize the industry over the past decade and a half. Does it damage us? Partly, but not fatally,” Putin concluded.

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SocGen is way off target here, any benefits will vanish along the way. The biggest problem all around today is deflation. Lower oil prices will exacerbate the problem, not solve it. People are simply not going to drive twice as much.

Global Growth To Get $200 Billion Kick From Oil Price Crash (Telegraph)

Global economies are set for a lift of more than $200bn (£127.4bn) within the next year, thanks to a “once in a generation downturn” in oil prices. Brent – an oil classification that serves as a global benchmark – has already plummeted by as much as 30pc from a peak of $115 a barrel in June. The decline of oil, and the effect that has on lower energy costs, will serve to boost growth and keep inflation contained, according to French bank Societe Generale. The lender’s economists have calculated that a $20 a barrel fall in oil prices could increase global output by an extra 0.26 percentage points after the first year of the shock, with producers in North America and Asia reaping much of the benefit.

This decline in oil has been “a major correction” said Michael Haigh, head of commodities research at the French bank. The downturn differs from previous falls because of its root cause – an oversupply of oil that “is not temporary in nature”, Mr Haigh argued. “We believe that we’re in the middle of a very fundamental change in the oil markets – the type of change that only happens every decade or two”, he added. Oil’s recent fall to around $80 a barrel has been driven “by both weak demand and increased supply”, said Michala Marcussen, Societe Generale’s global head of economics. A marked increase in Libyan oil production alongside a structural rise in US volumes, as a result of the shale boom in North America, have contributed to higher supply. With energy accounting for approximately 9pc of global inflation, a reduction in oil prices should also result in more subdued price growth.

If Brent Crude fell as low as $70 a barrel, this would reduce Societe Generale’s forecast for UK inflation by 0.3 percentage points for the whole of next year. But gains from weaker prices are unlikely to act as a panacea for nations suffering from lower growth. “Policy makers hoping that low oil prices will salvage growth should think twice,” Ms Marcussen cautioned. “In particular euro area leaders would do well to act resolutely on the European Central Bank’s calls for structural reforms at an accelerated pace.”

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” .. a 3% increase in government bond rates would result in a change in the value of outstanding government bonds ranging from a loss of around 8% of GDP for the U.S. to around 35% for Japan.”

How The Fed Has Boxed US Into An Easy-Money Corner (Satyajit Das)

Despite the Federal Reserve ending its purchases of Treasury bonds, U.S. monetary policy remains accommodative — and will be for a long time to come. The downside is too great. Withdrawing fiscal stimulus would slow economic activity. Reduction in government services and higher taxes hits disposable incomes, especially when wage growth is stagnant. In turn, this leads to a sharp contraction in consumption. Slower growth, exacerbated by high fiscal multipliers, makes it difficult to correct budget deficits and control government debt levels. Accordingly, the Fed’s ability to reverse an expansionary fiscal policy is restricted, at best, corroborating economist Milton Friedman’s sarcastic observation: “There is nothing so permanent as a temporary government program.”

The Fed is basically stuck. Its ZIRP and QE policies are difficult to change. Normalization of interest rates, reducing purchases of government bonds, and the reduction of central bank holdings of securities, all risk risks higher rates and reduced available funding for economic expansion. Low rates, meanwhile, allow overextended companies and nations to maintain or increase borrowings. Central banks also cannot sell government bonds and other securities held on their balance sheet. The size of these holdings means that disposal would lead to higher rates, resulting in large losses to the central bank as well as commercial banks and investors. The reduction in liquidity would tighten the supply of credit, destabilizing a fragile financial system.

In 2013, the Federal Reserve’s tentative “taper,” in effect a slight reduction in bond purchases, triggered market volatility. Resulting higher mortgage rates slowed the rate of refinancing of existing mortgages and the recovery of the housing market. A 1% rise in rates would increase the debt-servicing costs of the U.S. government by around $170 billion. A rise of 1% in G-7 interest rates would increase the interest expense of the G-7 countries by around $1.4 trillion. Higher interest rates would also affect indebted consumers and corporations. In the U.S., for example, a 1% increase in interest rates, according to a McKinsey Global Institute Study, would increase household debt payments collectively to $876 billion from $822 billion, a rise of 7%. According to the Bank of International Settlements, a 3% increase in government bond rates would result in a change in the value of outstanding government bonds ranging from a loss of around 8% of GDP for the U.S. to around 35% for Japan.

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“But it was a good week for anyone interested in understanding how this secretive institution works. Or doesn’t.”

The Week That Shook the Fed (Gretchen Morgenson)

The Federal Reserve Board prefers to operate in a shroud of secrecy, and its officials really don’t like having to answer to anybody. So it was fascinating to learn last week that the Fed is embarking on a soul-searching campaign. Its inspector general will take up the astonishing questions of whether the Fed’s big-bank examiners have what they need to do their jobs and whether they receive the support of their superiors when they challenge bank practices. Or, as the Fed put it, whether “channels exist for decision-makers to be aware of divergent views” among the Fed’s bank examination teams. Asking such questions is an about-face for the Fed, whose officials have long maintained that it is the most sophisticated and enlightened of financial regulators. And given that the Fed received extensive new regulatory powers under the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, it is troubling indeed that it may not be certain that its bank examiners have what they need to do their jobs.

The Fed announcement looks an awful lot like damage control. It came late Thursday afternoon, directly after one Senate hearing that was critical of Fed practices and before another on Friday. It also came after a bill proposed by Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, that would change the way the head of the most powerful of the 12 district banks — the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — is appointed. Currently, the president of the New York Fed is selected by its so-called public board members — those not affiliated with financial institutions. Senator Reed’s proposal would give the president of the United States, with Senate approval, responsibility for naming the president of the New York Fed. Clearly, last week was not a good one for the Fed. But it was a good week for anyone interested in understanding how this secretive institution works. Or doesn’t.

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The periphery is loaded with zombies.

Eurozone Yields Hit Record Lows: Is ECB Trumping Reality? (CNBC)

It’s hard to believe it’s just a few years since countries like Ireland and Spain had to go cap-in-hand to international lenders – at least if you look at their bond yields. Ireland’s 10-year bond yield, usually reflective of a country’s economic performance, hit a record low of 1.477% Monday, while Spanish 10-year bond yields fell below 2% for the first time ever. Ireland is expected to have one of the strongest economic rebounds in the euro zone, with 3.7% growth in GDP this year, according to Deutsche Bank forecasts. Yet it is also facing plenty of headwinds. There are increasing concerns that the current administration may not last for its maximum five-year term, as disputes over water charges and the recording of phone calls to police stations have destabilized the coalition.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael party would get just 22% of the vote now, down from 36% in the 2011 elections, according to a Red C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll published at the weekend. Polls suggest a large swing towards Sinn Fein, formerly better known as the political wing of the Irish Republican Army but now a growing voice of dissent from the main parties in Dublin. Independent candidates, often campaigning in direct opposition to a single government policy, have also been boosted by the waning popularity of the two traditionally dominant parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. The troika of the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and ECB, who bailed-out Ireland and its banks during the credit crisis, warned on Friday that its current budget “makes less progress than desirable” towards reducing its budget deficit – and that its recovery is at risk if there is a further slowdown in the euro zone.

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“This would be a radical change in the structure of the global financial system.”

German Bond Yields To Trump Japan As ECB Battles Deflation (AEP)

German bond yields are to fall below Japanese levels and plumb depths never seen before in history as Europe becomes the epicentre of global deflationary forces, according to new forecast from the Royal Bank of Scotland. “We are seeing `Japanification’ setting in across Europe,” said Andrew Roberts, the bank’s credit strategist. “We expect 10-year Bund yields to cross the 10-year Japanese government bond and we are amply positioned for such an outcome.” Mr Roberts said it is a “weighty win-win” situation for investors. If the European Central Bank launches full-blown quantitative easing, it will almost certainly have to buy large amounts of German Bunds, and these are becoming scarce. “Net supply in Germany is zero since they are in budget surplus this year and next, and they have written a balanced-budget amendment into their constitution. There are simply fewer and fewer Bunds to buy, and everybody wants them,” he said.

It is assumed that if the ECB buys sovereign bonds, it will have to buy them evenly in accordance with its capital “key”. This implies that 28pc would have to be German debt. Yet if the ECB fails to deliver on hints that it will expand its balance sheet by €1 trillion, the damage would be so enormous that Europe would be sucked into a depressionary vortex, according to the bank. Bund yields would fall for different reasons, as debt markets began to reflect a Japanese-style deflation trap. The bank’s credit team is betting that the ECB will act more quickly and on a greater scale than widely assumed, launching purchases of corporate bonds as soon as early December and full sovereign QE in February once the European Court has ruled on a previous debt rescue plan (OMT). “We think Germany will be dragged to the table, kicking and screaming all the time,” said Mr Roberts.

Japanese yields are just 0.45pc, which is steeply negative in real terms now that ‘Abenomics’ is driving up Japan’s inflation rate. This is a deliberate strategy to whittle away a public debt that has reached 245pc of GDP. German yields are 0.78pc. RBS expects the two bonds to cross as Japanese yields rise while German yields fall. This would be a radical change in the structure of the global financial system.

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Some German court at some point will strike Draghi down.

Bundesbank’s Weidmann Warns Of ‘Legal Limits’ On Further Moves By ECB (Reuters)

The European Central Bank could encounter “legal limits” if it pursued additional steps to combat low inflation, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank said on Monday, calling for a focus on growth rather than any government bond buying. “Instead of focusing on the purchasing program, we should focus on how you find growth,” Jens Weidmann told an audience in Madrid, when asked about the possibility of the ECB buying government bonds, a step known as quantitative easing. He warned that it would be difficult to pursue such steps to tackle low inflation. “Of course there are other measures which are more difficult, because they are untested, because they are less clear … and of course they hit the legal limits of what you can do,” said Weidmann, who sits on the ECB’s Governing Council. “This is why discussions are so intense,” he added.

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There is nothing good left for Greece in the eurozone. It’s as simple as that.

Greece Bailout Talks Resume Amid Concerns Over Exit (Reuters)

Greece’s government will resume stalled talks with EU/IMF lenders in Paris on Tuesday, as Athens pushes to conclude a crucial review by inspectors so it can make an early exit to an unpopular bailout programme. Athens had set a 8 December deadline to complete the review. But talks floundered over a projected budget gap for next year and EU/IMF inspectors did not return as expected to Athens this month, leading to concerns that a delayed review would derail Greece’s plan to quit its bailout by the end of the year. The two sides will meet in Paris “to advance the review and examine the framework for the day after”, the bailout ends, the Greek Finance Ministry said in a statement. A ministry official declined to say if the talks would continue beyond Tuesday, but said the bailout would not be extended past the end of the year.

Greece’s government has staked its own survival on abandoning the €240bn (£190bn) bailout programme, which has entailed unpopular austerity measures, ahead of schedule. Prime minister Antonis Samaras needs to push through his candidate in a presidential vote in February to avoid being forced to call early elections; he is is hoping that leaving the bailout will help win him enough support to survive the vote. But the final bailout review, like most reviews before it, has struggled amid rows over reforms and austerity cuts. Athens and its foreign lenders have been at loggerheads over the projected deficit for next year, with the lenders arguing Greece will miss the target of 0.2% of gross domestic product because of a new payback plan for austerity-hit Greeks who owe money to the state. The Greek government, however, has so far resisted changes demanded by the inspectors, going so far as to submit its 2015 budget to parliament last week without the approval of lenders.

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You guys

Brexit or Grexit, if one leaves more will follow.

Britain’s EU Retreat Means German Hegemony Warns Prodi (AEP)

Britain is already a lame duck within the EU’s internal governing structure and is losing influence “by the day” in Brussels, even before David Cameron holds a referendum on withdrawal. This self-isolation has upset the European balance of power in profound ways, leading ineluctably to German hegemony and a unipolar system centred on Berlin. It is made worse by the near catatonic condition of France under Francois Hollande. Smaller states no longer form clusters of alliances around a three-legged diplomatic edifice made up of Germany, France, and Britain. They are instead scrambling to adapt to a new European order where only one state now counts. So too is the EU’s permanent civil service and the institutional machinery in Brussels and Luxembourg. Such is the verdict of Roman Prodi, the former Italian premier and ex-president of the European Commission.

I pass on his thoughts because the Brexit debate in the UK invariably dwells on what the consequences might or might not be for Britain, while taking it for granted that Europe itself would somehow sail on sedately as if nothing had changed. But everything would change, and we can already discern it. “France is ever more disoriented and Britain is losing power by the day in Brussels after its decision to hold a referendum on EU membership,” he said. “All the countries that previously maintained an equilibrium between Germany, France, and Britain (from Poland, to the Baltic States, passing through Sweden and Portugal) are regrouping under the German umbrella,” he told the Italian newspaper Il Messaggero. “Germany is exercising an almost solitary power. The new presidents of the Commission and the Council are men who rotate around Germany’s orbit, and above all there is a very strong (German) presence among the directors, heads of cabinet and their deputies. The bureaucracy is adapting to the new correlation of forces,” he said. [..]

The EU is either a treaty club of democracies and equals, or it is nothing.

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As Abe said at some point last year: all it takes for Abenomics to succeed is for people to believe in it. Well, they don’t. So now what, Shinzo?

BOJ Minutes Show Bazooka Is All About The Message (CNBC)

Latest minutes from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released Tuesday reveal that the central bank’s surprise move in October to expand its already-massive stimulus program was about sending the message that it will do whatever it takes to “conquer deflation.” “The BOJ intended to send a strong message, beyond the financial markets, to jolt the wider economy,” said Shun Maruyama, Chief Japan Equity Strategist at BNP Paribas. “Consumer and business leaders remain unmoved by monetary policy.” Consumer inflation looks set to stall at around 1%, half of the BOJ’s stated target, he added, noting capital investments are picking up but not by enough to boost economic growth.

The BOJ’s commitment to pull the country out of two decades of deflation remains “unshakable”, according to the minutes from its policy meeting on October 31, when the central bank expanded its asset purchase program by 30 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen. “If no policy action was taken at this meeting, this could be understood as a breach of the commitment (to achieve its inflation target of 2%), thereby possibly impairing the Bank’s credibility significantly,” said one board member. The members that supported further monetary easing argued that the BOJ needed to “convey the bank’s unwavering resolve to conquer deflation.” In a tight ballot, five members backed the latest measures, and four voted against.

The BOJ kept its goal to boost the inflation rate to 2% by next year, but falling oil prices could put the target in question. When stripped of the effect of April’s consumption tax hike, Japan’s core inflation rate rose 1% in September from the year-ago period, its lowest pace in nearly a year. “The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) was likely to be at around 1% for some time, mainly due to the effects of the decline in crude oil prices,” board members said.

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The hoarding meme in economics is a red flag. Bernanke’s Asian ‘savings glut’ all over again.

Kuroda Tells Japan Inc. to Stop Hoarding Cash as Costs to Rise (Bloomberg)

Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda urged business leaders to use profits more productively, saying hoarding cash will become costly as the central bank stamps out deflation. Companies could boost investment in facilities and jobs, taking advantage of a weaker yen, Kuroda said today in a speech in Nagoya. At the same time, the BOJ will continue to spur price gains, adjusting its unprecedented easing policy as needed to achieve its inflation goal, he said. Japanese companies are headed toward their highest profits ever as a weaker yen resulting from the BOJ’s stimulus boosts Toyota and other exporters. Japan Inc. holds near-record cash while capital spending in the second quarter was more than 50% lower than a peak in the first three months of 2007. “Kuroda is making it clear it’s companies’ turn to act,” said Mari Iwashita, an economist at SMBC Friend Securities.

“Capital spending, wages and price settings are all vital for the BOJ but are out of its hands. Kuroda must convince companies the economy will get better and deflation will end.” Kuroda last week secured a wider board majority for easing that the BOJ boosted on Oct. 31, and warned the central bank’s key gauge of inflation could fall below 1% after the world’s third-largest economy slid into recession. Falling prices over two decades of stagnation made holding cash a viable option for companies looking for safety and real returns on capital. The BOJ has been making steady progress in shaking a “deflationary mindset,” Kuroda said. Kuroda called on business leaders to take “action” that looks toward an economy that has overcome deflation. “As a corporate strategy, using their profits in a more productive manner is imperative,” Kuroda said. “I have great interest in developments in wages and price settings through spring of next year.”

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“Guess what the hedge fund firms are doing now? Hunting for new, less skeptical customers.”

Hedge Funds Lose Money for Everyone, Not Just the Rich (Bloomberg)

When Douglas Kobak was an adviser at a large brokerage firm, he suggested his wealthiest clients buy a hedge fund promising to be “a very conservative alternative to bonds.” Then the credit crisis hit in 2008, the fund imploded and investors got 45 cents on the dollar — as long as they promised not to sue. Since then, mediocrity is more common than blow-ups. Hedge funds have lagged behind stocks while still charging fees of up to 2% of assets and 20% of gains. For the rich and their advisers, “the sex appeal of hedge funds has worn off,” says Kobak, now head of Main Line Group Wealth Management. Guess what the hedge fund firms are doing now? Hunting for new, less skeptical customers.

While only those with at least $1 million are allowed to invest in hedge funds, anyone can buy a mutual fund with a hedge fund strategy. Unfortunately, these “alternative” funds come with the same disadvantages hedge funds have: high fees, inconsistent performance and strategies that take a PhD to decipher. By starting alternative funds, mutual fund companies get a chance to bring in revenue they’re losing to cheap index funds and exchange-traded funds. In a deal announced Nov. 18, Blackstone Alternative Asset Management is coming up with hedge-fund-like products for mutual fund company Columbia Management. They’ll join 11 other U.S. mutual funds and ETFs classified by Bloomberg as “alternative,” which together hold $68 billion in assets. One in five of those assets is held by the largest fund, the MainStay Marketfield Fund. Started in 2007, it’s one of the oldest alternative funds, and one of the most disappointing.

After a good start from 2007 to 2009, the fund mostly matched the stock market in 2010 and 2011, and then lagged behind it in 2012 and 2013. This year, it has dropped almost 11%, a mirror image of the S&P 500’s 11.6% gain. Unreliable and disappointing performance is getting to be as common among alternative funds as among hedge funds. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Hedge Fund index is up 2% year-to-date. The average return of an alternative fund open to all investors is 1.1%, behind the inflation rate. High-quality corporate bonds have returned 70% more than the median alternative fund over the last three years. The stock market has brought in eight times as much as alternatives. And these blah results don’t come cheap. The MainStay Marketfield Fund has been losing money while charging an expense ratio of 2.6% per year. That’s pricier than 99% of all funds, though it’s not as extreme among alternative funds. They charge an average of 1.74% per year, 20 times as much as the cheapest index funds.

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“Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street bank where Dudley was chief U.S. economist for a decade.”

Dudley Defense Leaves Senators Unimpressed as Fed Scrutiny Rises (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley’s defense of his record on financial supervision is unlikely to appease lawmakers seeking to tighten their oversight of the central bank. In a tense exchange with Senator Elizabeth Warren at a Nov. 21 hearing, Dudley rejected her assertion that there had been a “long list” of regulatory failures at the New York Fed. Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, suggested that if Dudley doesn’t fix a “cultural problem” at the bank, “we need to get someone who will.” While the Senate doesn’t have the authority to appoint or remove Fed presidents, the exchange was a sign of growing frustration among Republicans and Democrats alike. Republicans, who have been critical of the Fed’s loose monetary policy, will take control of the Senate in January, adding to pressure on the Fed from Democrats who see the central bank as too close to the Wall Street banks it supervises.

“The Fed is as vulnerable as any time since the 1980s,” when then-Chairman Paul Volcker drew the ire of politicians for driving up interest rates to levels that threw the country into a recession, said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics. The next Congress will be “really challenging for the Fed.” Last week’s hearing before a subcommittee of the Senate Banking Committee was prompted by allegations made by a former New York Fed bank examiner, Carmen Segarra, who said her colleagues were too deferential to Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street bank where Dudley was chief U.S. economist for a decade.

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She headed the board of directors as the money laundering and organized crime (those are the charges) were going on. And of course now says she had no idea. Which makes one wonder what she has no idea of now she leads the government. Ignorance doesn’t come high on a president’s list of job qualifications.

Even Brazil’s President Is Involved In The Petrobras Scandal (CNBC)

Energy giant Petrobras is engulfed in a corruption scandal that could prove to be Brazil’s biggest, threatening to engulf the country’s most senior politicians—including its president. Even the company is not downplaying the events. In a news release last week to explain why it had delayed its upcoming financial report, Petrobas said it was “undergoing a unique moment in its history, in light of the accusations and investigations of the “Lava Jato Operation” (Portuguese for “Operation car wash”) being conducted by the Brazilian Federal Police, which has led to charges of money laundering and organized crime.” CNBC takes a look at the facts behind the scandal and the implications for other oil companies and Brazil itself. [..]

Petrobras executives are alleged to have paid politicians for contracts, using money skimmed from company profits. The head of the country’s budget watchdog, Joao Augusto Nardes, has said the kickbacks may total as much as 4 billion Brazilian reais ($1.6 billion), according to the WSJ. The company has neither confirmed nor denied the allegations. It has hired independent auditors to investigate further, in addition to the official investigation by the Brazilian Federal Police. The country’s most senior politicians are implicated, including recently re-elected President Dilma Rousseff, who previously headed the Petrobras board of directors.

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Der Spiegel provides a lengthy history of how failure decided the future of Ukraine, and the German magazine doesn’t spare Merkel.

Summit of Failure: How the EU Lost Russia over Ukraine (Spiegel)

One year ago, negotations over a Ukraine association agreement with the European Union collapsed. The result has been a standoff with Russia and war in the Donbass. It was an historical failure, and one that German Chancellor Angela Merkel contributed to.

Only six meters separated German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych as they sat across from each other in the festively adorned knight’s hall of the former Palace of the Grand Dukes of Lithuania. In truth, though, they were worlds apart. Yanukovych had just spoken. In meandering sentences, he tried to explain why the European Union’s Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius was more useful than it might have appeared at that moment, why it made sense to continue negotiating and how he would remain engaged in efforts towards a common future, just as he had previously been. “We need several billion euros in aid very quickly,” Yanukovych said. Then the chancellor wanted to have her say. Merkel peered into the circle of the 28 leaders of EU member states who had gathered in Vilnius that evening. What followed was a sentence dripping with disapproval and cool sarcasm aimed directly at the Ukrainian president.

“I feel like I’m at a wedding where the groom has suddenly issued new, last minute stipulations.” The EU and Ukraine had spent years negotiating an association agreement. They had signed letters of intent, obtained agreement from cabinets and parliaments, completed countless diplomatic visits and exchanged objections. But in the end, on the evening of Nov. 28, 2014 in the old palace in Vilnius, it became clear that it had all been a wasted effort. It was an historical earthquake. Everyone came to realize that efforts to deepen Ukraine’s ties with the EU had failed. But no one at the time was fully aware of the consequences the failure would have: that it would lead to one of the world’s biggest crises since the end of the Cold War; that it would result in the redrawing of European borders; and that it would bring the Continent to the brink of war. It was the moment Europe lost Russia.

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Even Reuters cheerleading can’t prevent this.

In Wake Of China Rejections, GMO Seed Makers Limit US Launches (Reuters)

China’s barriers to imports of some U.S. genetically modified crops are disrupting seed companies’ plans for new product launches and keeping at least one variety out of the U.S. market altogether. Two of the world’s biggest seed makers, Syngenta and Dow AgroSciences, are responding with tightly controlled U.S. launches of new GMO seeds, telling farmers where they can plant new corn and soybean varieties and how can the use them. Bayer CropScience told Reuters it has decided to keep a new soybean variety on hold until it receives Chinese import approval. Beijing is taking longer than in the past to approve new GMO crops, and Chinese ports in November 2013 began rejecting U.S. imports saying they were tainted with a GMO Syngenta corn variety, called Agrisure Viptera, approved in the United States, but not in China.

The developments constrain launches of new GMO seeds by raising concerns that harvests of unapproved varieties could be accidentally shipped to the world’s fastest-growing corn market and denied entry there. It also casts doubt over the future of companies’ heavy investments in research of crop technology. The stakes are high. Grain traders Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland, along with dozens of farmers, sued Syngenta for damages after Beijing rejected Viptera shipments, saying the seed maker misrepresented how long it would take to win Chinese approval. In the weeks since Cargill first sued on Sept. 12, Syngenta’s stock has touched a three-year low. ADM in its lawsuit last week alleged the company did not follow through on plans for a controlled launch of Viptera corn. Syngenta says the complaints are unfounded.

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