Jun 082015
 
 June 8, 2015  Posted by at 11:10 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  9 Responses »


Unknown Army of the James, James River, Virginia. 1865

The Troika Is Supposed To Build Greece Up, Not Blow It Apart (Guardian)
Greece Updating Proposals It Sent To Lenders (Kathimerini)
Young Greek Radicals Don’t Just Want Power – They Want To Remake The World (PM)
VAT Rate Hikes Always Reduce State Revenues (Thanos Tsiros)
Juncker Vents Fury Over Greek Bailout Talks At G7 Summit (Guardian)
If You Think Greece’s Crisis Will End Any Time Soon, Think Again (Bloomberg)
103 Years Later, Wall Street Turned Out Just As One Man Predicted (Zero Hedge)
Obama Sidelines Kerry On Ukraine Policy (Eric Zuesse)
Masked Attackers Break Up Tent Camp On Kiev’s Maidan (RT)
Literally, Your ATM Won’t Work… (Bill Bonner)
Banks’ Post-Crisis Legal Costs Hit $300 Billion (FT)
Will China’s Stock Market Explode On Wednesday? (MarketWatch)
China Imports Fall 17.6%, Exports Decline 2.5% (AFP)
Deutsche Bank CEO’s Forced to Resign Over Imminent Derivatives Melt-Down? (Doc)
The Bristol Pound Is Giving Sterling A Run For Its Money (Guardian)
Max Keiser’s Bitcoin Capital Continues to Attract Investors (NBTC)
Canada to Train Ukrainian Police as Russia Conflict Worsens (Bloomberg)
Greek Island Gateway To EU As Thousands Flee Homelands (Irish Times)

A voice of reason, but the troika is not about reason.

The Troika Is Supposed To Build Greece Up, Not Blow It Apart (Guardian)

The phrase “trench warfare” comes to mind. On Friday evening the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, lobbed some choice words at his foes in Brussels, calling their proposed debt deal “absurd”. Days earlier, the IMF had joined its allies in Brussels to fire a volley of criticism at Athens. The Greeks already had “significant flexibility” to get out of their budget mess, IMF boss Christine Lagarde said, as she urged Athens to repay the €300m instalment of its bailout loan due on Friday. This could go on for several more weeks: Greece told the IMF it will have to wait until the end of the month to get its money, when it will “bundle” four payments together. And should the sides become more entrenched, this long-running war could still end in the disaster of Greek default.

In Washington, where the IMF is hunkered down, and in Europe’s finance ministries, the Greek stance is considered wilfully unreasonable. The Syriza government’s demand for the return of national pay bargaining, a relaxed timetable for pension reform and a lower budget surplus than that demanded by the EU, the IMF and the European Central Bank are all but ridiculed in Berlin, Helsinki and Riga. As Greece’s chief creditors, the EU and the IMF want Greece to adopt flexible labour markets, immediate restrictions on early retirement and a budget surplus big enough to accommodate some debt repayments.

While much of what the radical leftists want seems unreasonable – especially the slow pace of pension reform, which in effect would allow tens of thousands of people in their late 50s to grab early retirement – it is the demands being made by Brussels and the IMF that are unconvincing and, worse, untenable. Running a larger budget surplus is only going to destroy Greece, not build it up. As US economist Joseph Stiglitz and many others, including former IMF staffers, have pointed out, the troika of creditors badly misjudged the economic effects of the programme they imposed in 2010 and 2012. “They believed that by cutting wages and accepting other austerity measures, Greek exports would increase and the economy would quickly return to growth,” Stiglitz said last week.

“They also believed that the first restructuring would lead to debt sustainability. The troika’s forecasts have been wrong.” The current proposals repeat the same mistake. Seven years after the crash, the Greek economy is still 25% smaller than it was at its previous peak, 10% of households have no electricity and youth unemployment is running at more than 50%. Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, may specialise in needling their creditors, but the troika also need to take into account the fact that Syriza has formed a legitimate, democratically elected government and cannot be told that its electoral programme is irrelevant.

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826th edition.

Greece Updating Proposals It Sent To Lenders (Kathimerini)

The Greek government is redrafting the 47-page proposal it sent to lenders last week with the aim of securing an agreement that would allow the disbursal of €7.2 billion in bailout funding. Kathimerini understands that Athens is focussing its attention on adjusting the fiscal measures it proposed with the aim of getting closer to the revenue target set by lenders. However, the coalition is reluctant to adjust its VAT proposal, which sees three brackets (6, 11 and 23%) rather than the two proposed by lenders (11 and 23). Greece also seems prepared to raise slightly its primary surplus proposals from 0.6% of GDP this year and 1.5% next year. The institutions proposed 1% for 2015 and 2% for 2016.

The updated suggestion from the Greek side is not expected to reach these targets. While Athens is prepared to change the law regarding early retirement, saving 100 million euros, it does not seem willing to go as far as lenders are demanding in terms of pension reform. There are also substantial differences between Greece and its creditors on the issue of labour market regulations. The updated proposals are expected to be discussed between Greek officials and representatives of the institutions over the next few days, ahead of a meeting between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande in the Belgian capital on Wednesday.

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They want to make sure this sort of crisis will not happen again.

Young Greek Radicals Don’t Just Want Power – They Want To Remake The World (PM)

At some point, as the Greek crisis lurches to its crescendo, Syriza – the radical left party – will call a meeting of something called a central committee. The term sounds quaint to 21st-century ears: the committee is so big that it has to meet in a cinema. You will not be surprised to learn that the predominant hair colour is grey. These are people who were underground activists in a military dictatorship; some served jail time, and in 1973 many were among the students who defied tanks and destroyed a junta. But they think, speak and act in a way shaped by the hierarchies and power concepts of 50 years ago.

The contrast with the left’s mass support base, and membership, is stark. In the average Greek riot, you are surrounded by concert pianists, interior designers, web developers, waitresses and actors in experimental theatre. It is usually 50:50 male and female, and drawn from a demographic as handy with a smartphone as the older generation are with Lenin’s selected works. Like young radicals across Europe and the US, they have been schooled in the ways of the modern middle classes: launching startup businesses, working two or three casual jobs; entrepreneurship, loose living and wild partying are the default way of life. Of course, every generation of radicals looks different from the last one, but the economic and behavioural contrasts that are obvious in Greece are also present in most other countries.

And this prompts the question: what do the radicals of this generation want when they win power? The success of Syriza, of Podemos in Spain and even the flood of radicalised young people into the SNP in Scotland makes this no longer an idle question. The most obvious change is that, for the rising generation, identity has replaced ideology. I don’t just mean as in “identity politics”. There is a deeper process going on, whereby a credible identity – a life lived according to a believed truth – has become a more significant badge in politics than a coherent set of ideas.

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Just ask Abe and Kuroda.

VAT Rate Hikes Always Reduce State Revenues (Thanos Tsiros)

Greece’s value-added tax rates have been raised three times since 2010, all within the space of one year: in March and July 2010 and then in January 2011. The hike that the government is negotiating with the country’s creditors will be the fourth in five years. Already the low and very low VAT rates have gone up by 44% since early 2010 – i.e. from 4.5 to 6.5% and from 9 to 13% respectively – while the main rate has grown 22%, from 19 to 23% nowadays. Those hikes, intended to increase the state’s income takings, in fact reduced revenues by 20%: In 2014 VAT revenues dropped below €14 billion, to €13.6 billion.

For this year, the budget had provided for VAT revenues of €14.4 billion, but in the first five months there has already been a shortfall of 350 million compared with the target for that point of the year. In comparison with 2008, the year that the recession started, VAT revenues shrank by €5 billion in 2014 in spite of the major hike in the rates. Modern Greek economic history has shown that any indirect tax rate increase leads to a reduction in consumption and an increase in tax evasion, meaning that revenues go down instead of up.

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A rehearsed ploy.

Juncker Vents Fury Over Greek Bailout Talks At G7 Summit (Guardian)

European Union officials delivered a blistering attack on the Greek government at the G7 summit in Bavaria, and world leaders including Barack Obama sought to avoid a transatlantic split over Ukraine by agreeing to maintain sanctions against Russia. In a day of secluded talks in the Alpine resort of Schloss Elmau, the biggest drama was provided by a verbal attack on the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, by the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker. The summit’s host, Angela Merkel, had hoped to solve the Greek bailout crisis before the summit, but instead Juncker felt forced to open proceedings by staging a press conference accusing Tsipras of undermining negotiations over new terms for a bailout and of effectively lying to the Greek parliament.

A visibly angry Juncker said he had told Tsipras during a meeting last Wednesday evening that there was room to negotiate but said the Greeks had been unwilling to take part in in-depth discussions at the meeting. Instead, he said, Tsipras had promised to send him his proposals the following day, but he was still waiting for them on Sunday. “Alexis Tsipras promised that by Thursday evening he would present a second proposal. Then he said he would present it on Friday. And then he said he would call on Saturday. But I have never received that proposal, so I hope I will receive it soon. I would like to have that Greek proposal,” he said. He told reporters he had said to Tsipras that he continued to exclude the idea of a Grexit – “because I don’t want to see it” – but that he could not “pull a rabbit out of a hat”.[..]

Juncker, perceived until now as an honest broker in the crisis – taking a softer approach than the Germans, who are viewed in Greece as the architects of austerity – has rarely been seen in such an irate state, sources close to the EU in Garmisch-Partenkirchen said. They warned that Greece might have lost its closest ally in its long fight to secure a rosier deal. Juncker said he had been disappointed by a speech Tsipras had given to the Athens parliament on Friday. “He was presenting the offer of the three institutions as a leave-or-take offer. That was not the case … He knows perfectly well that is not the case.” Juncker said Tsipras had failed to mention to parliament his (Juncker’s) willingness to negotiate over Greek pensions. [..]

In Athens Mega TV reported that relations between Berlin and Washington over Greece had become increasingly frosty – despite the exhortation from Barack Obama at the G7 for a quick solution to the European debt crisis. The Greek television channel, citing a senior German official, described the US treasury secretary, Jack Lew, imploring his German counterpart Wolfgang Schäuble to “support Greece” only to be told: “Give €50bn euro yourself to save Greece.” Mega’s Berlin-based correspondent told the stationthat the US official then said nothing “because, as is always the case according to German officials when it comes to the issue of money, the Americans never say anything”.

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We have at least 3 weeks left. But after that, of course, Greece will have to plod on for many years.

If You Think Greece’s Crisis Will End Any Time Soon, Think Again (Bloomberg)

Frustrated by Greece’s cat and mouse game with its creditors? Get used to it. Even if PM Alexis Tsipras clinches the €7.2 billion that creditors are withholding, he’s going to need another cash infusion shortly thereafter. What will ensue is a renewed battle after almost five months of trench warfare. The beleaguered country requires a third bailout of about €30 billion, according to Nomura analysts Lefteris Farmakis and Dimitris Drakopoulos. Tsipras says any aid must be on his terms rather than those of governments whose taxpayers have forked out billions in the past five years to keep Greece in the euro. “Any plausible deal at this stage is unlikely to do enough and it’s unlikely to be the end of the matter,” said Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London.

“This could just play out again and again.” The latest episode in the five-year saga has focused on releasing the final tranche of Greece’s second bailout, which expires at the end of June. The amount at stake roughly equates to the bond repayments that Greece needs to make to the ECB in July and August. Here’s the problem for the policy makers struggling to avoid a default in Athens: Even if Greece muddles through until August, it faces a financing shortfall of at least €25 billion euros through the end of 2016. That’s likely to worsen as the economy slides deeper into recession and tax revenue shrivels. [..] “The dependence on our creditors will remain for two years in the best-case scenario,” said Aristides Hatzis, associate professor of law and economics at the University of Athens. “Greece is going to need cheap loans for the next two years.”

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It was all there right from the start.

103 Years Later, Wall Street Turned Out Just As One Man Predicted (Zero Hedge)

In 1910, three years before the US Federal Reserve was founded, Senator Nelson Aldrich, Frank Vanderlip of National City (Citibank), Henry Davison of Morgan Bank, and Paul Warburg of the Kuhn, Loeb Investment House met secretly at Jekyll Island in Georgia to formulate a plan for a US central bank just years ahead of World War I. The result of their work was the so-called Aldrich Plan which called for a system of fifteen regional central banks, i.e., National Reserve Associations, whose actions would be coordinated by a national board of commercial bankers. The Reserve Association would make emergency loans to member banks, and would create money to provide an elastic currency that could be exchanged equally for demand deposits, and would act as a fiscal agent for the federal government.

In other words, the Aldrich Plan proposed a “central bank” that would be openly and directly controlled by Wall Street commercial banks on whose behalf it would solely operate, instead of doing so indirectly, behind closed doors and the need for criminal probe of Yellen’s Fed seeking to find who leaked what to whom. The Aldrich Plan was defeated in the House in 1912 but its outline became the model for the bill that eventually was adopted as the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 whose passage not only unleashed the Fed as we know it now, but the entire shape of modern finance.

In 1912, one person who warned against the passage of the Aldrich Plan, was Alfred Owen Crozier: a man who saw how it would all play out, and even wrote a book titled “U.S. Money vs Corporation Currency” (costing 25 cents) explaining and predicting everything that would ultimately happen, even adding some 30 illustrations for those readers who were visual learners. The book, which is attached at the end of this post, is a must read, but even those pressed for time are urged to skim the following illustrations all of which were created in 1912, and all of which predicted just what the current financial system would look like. Or, in the words of Overstock’s CEO Patrick Byrne, “that’s uncanny”

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“..she also famously said “F—k the EU!” Obama is now seconding that statement of hers.”

Obama Sidelines Kerry On Ukraine Policy (Eric Zuesse)

On May 21st, I headlined “Secretary of State John Kerry v. His Subordinate Victoria Nuland, Regarding Ukraine,” and quoted John Kerry’s May 12th warning to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to cease his repeated threats to invade Crimea and re-invade Donbass, two former regions of Ukraine, which had refused to accept the legitimacy of the new regime that was imposed on Ukraine in violent clashes during February 2014. (These were regions that had voted overwhelmingly for the Ukrainian President who had just been overthrown. They didn’t like him being violently tossed out and replaced by his enemies.) Kerry said then that, regarding Poroshenko, “we would strongly urge him to think twice not to engage in that kind of activity, that that would put Minsk in serious jeopardy.

And we would be very, very concerned about what the consequences of that kind of action at this time may be.” Also quoted there was Kerry’s subordinate, Victoria Nuland, three days later, saying the exact opposite, that we “reiterate our deep commitment to a single Ukrainian nation, including Crimea, and all the other regions of Ukraine.” I noted, then that, “The only person with the power to fire Nuland is actually U.S. President Barack Obama.” However, Obama instead has sided with Nuland on this. Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, bannered, on June 5th, “Poroshenko: Ukraine Will ‘Do Everything’ To Retake Crimea’,” and reported that, “President Petro Poroshenko has vowed to seek Crimea’s return to Ukrainian rule. … Speaking at a news conference on June 5, … Poroshenko said that ‘every day and every moment, we will do everything to return Crimea to Ukraine.’”

Poroshenko was also quoted there as saying, “It is important not to give Russia a chance to break the world’s pro-Ukrainian coalition,” which indirectly insulted Kerry for his having criticized Poroshenko’s warnings that he intended to invade Crimea and Donbass. Right now, the Minsk II ceasefire has broken down and there are accusations on both sides that the other is to blame. What cannot be denied is that at least three times, on April 30th, then on May 11th, and then on June 5th, Poroshenko has repeatedly promised to invade Crimea, which wasn’t even mentioned in the Minsk II agreement; and that he was also promising to re-invade Donbass, something that is explicitly prohibited in this agreement. Furthermore, America’s President, Barack Obama, did not fire Kerry’s subordinate, Nuland, for her contradicting her boss on this important matter.

How will that be taken in European capitals? Kerry was reaffirming the position of Merkel and Hollande, the key shapers of the Minsk II agreement; and Nuland was nullifying them. Obama now has sided with Nuland on this; it’s a slap in the face to the EU: Poroshenko can continue ignoring Kerry and can blatantly ignore the Minsk II agreement; and Obama tacitly sides with Poroshenko and Nuland, against Kerry. The personalities here are important: On 4 February 2014, in the very same phone-conversation with Geoffrey Pyatt, America’s Ambassador in Ukraine, in which Nuland had instructed Pyatt to get “Yats” Yatsenyuk appointed to lead Ukraine after the coup (which then occured 18 days later), she also famously said “F—k the EU!” Obama is now seconding that statement of hers.

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Absolutely in chracter.

Masked Attackers Break Up Tent Camp On Kiev’s Maidan (RT)

Unidentified assailants wearing balaclavas assaulted and destroyed a tent camp set up on Sunday by protesters on Kiev’s landmark Maidan Square. Activists at the camp had been calling on the Ukrainian President to report on progress since taking office. The attack happened late Sunday evening, when a gang stormed the activist camp, forcefully removing tents and dispersing protesters. Police officers were reportedly stationed right next to the site and did nothing to stop the violent group. The organizer of the action, Rustam Tashbaev, was arrested, RIA Novosti reported. There were also blasts heard on Institutskaya Street near the Maidan. In Ruptly’s video, assailants are seen ripping through the camp, tearing everything apart, and dragging protesters out of the tents, while they can be heard screaming in the background.

“They took me and dragged me like I was in a sleigh. I screamed, thinking they would beat me up, but they quickly dispersed. It looked like a theater production because the police were nearby and did nothing,” one of the demonstrators told Ruptly video news agency. Earlier on Sunday, about 100 protesters set up several tents on Maidan, demanding President Petro Poroshenko and his cabinet report on what progress has been made in implementing the reforms which were promised last year. “We have launched this campaign, set up tents, and called this protest Maidan 3,” one of the organizers, Rustam Tashbaev, told Ruptly. “We demand these people perform the duties which they are obliged to perform.” Placards at the protest read “Out with [PM Arseny] Yatsenuk and his reforms” and “I’m on hunger strike against administrative dereliction.”

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“..it costs the banks almost nothing to create new credit. That’s why we have so much of it.”

Literally, Your ATM Won’t Work… (Bill Bonner)

While we were thinking about what was really going on with today’s strange new money system, a startling thought occurred to us. Our financial system could take a surprising and catastrophic twist that almost nobody imagines, let alone anticipates. Do you remember when a lethal tsunami hit the beaches of Southeast Asia, killing thousands of people and causing billions of dollars of damage? Well, just before the 80-foot wall of water slammed into the coast an odd thing happened: The water disappeared. The tide went out farther than anyone had ever seen before. Local fishermen headed for high ground immediately. They knew what it meant. But the tourists went out onto the beach looking for shells! The same thing could happen to the money supply…

Here’s how.. and why: It’s almost seems impossible. Hard to imagine. Difficult to understand. But if you look at M2 money supply – which measures coins and notes in circulation as well as bank deposits and money market accounts – America’s money stock amounted to $11.7 trillion as of last month. But there was just $1.3 trillion of physical currency in circulation – about only half of which is in the US. (Nobody knows for sure.) What we use as money today is mostly credit. It exists as zeros and ones in electronic bank accounts. We never see it. Touch it. Feel it. Count it out. Or lose it behind seat cushions. Banks profit – handsomely – by creating this credit. And as long as banks have sufficient capital, they are happy to create as much credit as we are willing to pay for.

After all, it costs the banks almost nothing to create new credit. That’s why we have so much of it. A monetary system like this has never before existed. And this one has existed only during a time when credit was undergoing an epic expansion. So our monetary system has never been thoroughly tested. How will it hold up in a deep or prolonged credit contraction? Can it survive an extended bear market in bonds or stocks? What would happen if consumer prices were out of control?

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Jailing them would be better for shareholders value. And who in their right mind can claim it’s time to go easy on the banks?

Banks’ Post-Crisis Legal Costs Hit $300 Billion (FT)

The total cost of litigation aimed at a group of the biggest global banks since 2010 has broken the £200bn ($306bn) barrier, according to a new study that challenges assumptions that banks are through the worst of post-crisis reparations. The annual study, carried out by the UK-based CCP Research Foundation, uses regulatory notices, annual reports and other public disclosures to tally the cost of fighting claims of misconduct over rolling five-year periods. In the latest report, which runs until the end of last year, the total for 16 banks stands at £205.6bn of fines, settlements and provisions — up almost a fifth from the previous year.

Despite that trend, many bank executives continue to act as if these are irregular charges from “legacy” issues, said Chris Steares, research director at the foundation. He noted that a recent flurry of settlements for currency manipulation cited abuses continuing until 2013. “If you ask the banks if their reputational risk is going to change, they’d have to say yes,” he said. “[But] with conduct costs continuing to be incurred, year after year, it does beg the question whether behaviours are being changed for the better.”

Some politicians in the US and UK have tried to draw a line under years of heavy lawmaking, taxes and fines, arguing that regulators should now go easier on the banks. Executives, too, have signalled that expenses have begun to fall, particularly after the resolution of cases linked to the mis-selling of residential mortgage-backed securities. Presenting earnings in April, for example, Bruce Thompson, Bank of America’s finance chief, noted two “much lighter” quarters of legal expenses which he hoped would allow the bank to hold less capital under international standards on operational risk.

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Not unlikely.

Will China’s Stock Market Explode On Wednesday? (MarketWatch)

Wednesday could be huge for Chinese stocks. On that day, about four hours before Shanghai opens for trade, MSCI will announce whether it will welcome China’s top yuan-denominated stocks into its extremely influential Emerging Markets Index, tracked by a mountain of roughly $1.7 trillion in assets worldwide. Such a move would be expected to ignite a significant rally in Shanghai blue chips, and a recent Wall Street Journal report cited major funds such as those of Vanguard Group Inc. planning to purchase Chinese equities ahead of the MSCI decision, which is due to be revealed Tuesday at about 5:30 p.m. EDT (Wednesday 5:30 a.m. in Shanghai) on the financial company’s website.

Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese companies – known as “H-shares” – are already a sizeable presence in the MSCI EM Index. Rival FTSE Group (owned by the London Stock Exchange) recently added the mainland-listed stocks – known as “A-shares” – into transitional global indexes, and may add them to its benchmark EM index this September, according to HSBC. The possible MSCI move has been making big headlines in China’s news media, but that said, many analysts are not so sure the index compiler will take the plunge into Chinese equities this week, suggesting it will wait a little longer for the country’s financial reforms to solidify further.

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Ironically, this means a huge increase in the trade surplus…

China Imports Fall 17.6%, Exports Decline 2.5% (AFP)

Chinese imports fell for a seventh straight month in May while exports also sank, according to official data, as the world’s second-biggest economy shows protracted weakness even in the face of government measures to stimulate growth. The disappointing figures, out on Monday, also come as leaders try to transform the economy to one where growth is driven by consumer spending rather than government investment and exports. Imports slumped 17.6% year on year to $131.26bn, the Chinese customs department said in a statement. The decline was much sharper than the median forecast of a 10% fall in a Bloomberg News poll of economists, and followed April’s 16.2% drop.

“The May trade data … suggest both external and domestic demand remain weak,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an analyst with the research firm Capital Economics. Exports dropped for the third consecutive month, falling 2.5% to $190.75bn, customs said, although that was better than the median estimate of a 4% fall in the Bloomberg survey. The sharp decrease in imports meant the trade surplus expanded 65.6% year on year to $59.49bn, according to the data. In yuan terms, imports fell 18.1%, exports decreased 2.8% and the trade surplus expanded 65%. The figures provided further evidence that frailty in the Chinese economy, a key driver of world growth, has extended into the current quarter despite intensified government stimulus measures.

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“Deutsche Bank is sitting on a powderkeg of derivatives dynamite..”

Deutsche Bank CEO’s Forced to Resign Over Imminent Derivatives Melt-Down? (Doc)

The co-CEOs of Deutsche Bank unexpectedly stepped down. Recall that Deutsche Bank is now the largest holder of derivatives in the world. The ONLY reason these resignations would have been unexpectedly coerced like this is if Deutsche Bank was having a potentially uncontrollable problem in its OTC derivatives holdings. Because of accounting rules, we have no possible way of knowing what DB’s OTC derivatives book looks like. Although Jain oversaw the build-up of the book, it’s likely that not only does he not know where all the bodies are buried, he has lied to the board of directors and shareholders about the riskiness of the bank’s holdings. I know Jain from personal experience with him right after Deutsche Bank acquired Bankers Trust for BT’s derivatives capabilities.

It instantly put Deutsche Bank in the forefront of the fraud-based OTC derivatives business. Jain has lost money wherever he worked. He was brought over to DB from Merrill when Edson Mitchell assumed the reigns at Deutsche Bank’s US unit. I just remember thinking Jain was about as sleazy as they come. His sole charge was to build Deutsche’s derivatives book of business into the biggest in the world. From there he sleazed his way into the CEO position, a few years after Mitchell went down in plane accident. He then proceeded to climb to the top of Deutsche Bank by conspiring to “shoot” then-CEO Josef Ackerman in the back. Deutsche Bank is sitting on a powderkeg of derivatives dynamite. DB is also the entity that has leased out most of Germany’s sovereign gold.

From a good friend of mine who worked at DB and still keeps in touch with former colleagues: “Deutsche Bank is sitting on a lethal amount of derivatives and everyone at the bank knows it.” [..] “Like I said many times over the past 6 months…the derivatives in Europe have gone SIDEWAYS and there is blood in the back rooms of the world’s biggest derivative traders! News yesterday that $6B in derivatives were being “internally investigated” at the world’s largest derivative holder, Deutsche Bank, is followed today by the resignation of BOTH of it’s CEO’s!! Anshu Jain has thus overseen the world’s largest arsenal of deadly financial derivatives. When Deutsche Bank goes down in flames, the Jain’s bank account should be the first source of funding the losses. May whatever Higher Power there may be up above help us all when the derivatives financial nuclear daisy-chain starts to blow…

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Moany spent locally is worth many times what is spent into box stores. Shopping at Wal-Mart impoverishes your economy, and ultimately you yourself.

The Bristol Pound Is Giving Sterling A Run For Its Money (Guardian)

When his firm was going up against national companies for contracts to manage waste, Jon Free needed an edge to win the pitches. The answer he found was in the sense of community that existed among small businesses like his. By using his local currency, the Bristol pound, he saw companies were more willing to give their business to him and keep money flowing in the area. Launched almost three years ago, the community currency aims to keep money circulating among independent retailers and firms by encouraging people to use the local ‘cash’ instead of sterling, an idea that has inspired other towns and cities to take up similar schemes in the UK and abroad. “To be able to drop in and create a link to make [the money] a circular thing is a big part of it,” the managing director of Waste Source said.

“To say that we are registered with the Bristol pound shows that we are more community based.” In use since 2012, the system operates as both notes and in electronic form with each Bristol pound equal to one pound sterling. Some 800 businesses in the Bristol area now use the community currency, with coffees, meals, council tax and even pole-dancing lessons paid for with it. “The practical vision was to get something which would connect local communities with their businesses in a way which kept money building up in their local communities,” the currency’s co-founder, Ciaran Mundy, said. “What happens is that if you spend it at a large supermarket chain, 80% of that will exit the economy very quickly.”

While community currencies have a history going back to Victorian times, there has been a resurgence in recent years, with Bristol emerging as the standard-bearer in the UK. The system works by people exchanging their sterling for paper Bristol pounds – in single, five, 10 and 20 denominations – or by opening an account at the Bristol Credit Union. The currency can then be spent in participating businesses, or between businesses, in return for goods or services. So far, some £1m has been issued in the community currency, according to Mundy, of which about £700,000 is still in circulation. As it is a voluntary scheme, the currency can switch between sterling and Bristol pounds, he said.

The thinking behind the creation of the new currency, said Mundy, was to make a minor change to allow for more money to be spent in local areas. “I was looking for a technological and cultural innovation which allows people to conduct themselves in a way which is more sustainable. A big part of that is being aware of the impact of your economic activity,” he said.

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Just did an interview with Max. Airs tomorrow on RT.

Max Keiser’s Bitcoin Capital Continues to Attract Investors (NBTC)

Bitcoin Capital, a venture capital fund initiated by the celebrated finance journalist Max Keiser, is hinting to close on a very optimistic note. According to the details available at BnkToTheFuture.com, the VC fund has already generated a little over $1 million upon receiving support from 580 backers (at press time), especially when there are still three days left to the curtain call. The reports also claim that each investor has injected over $1,000 into the Bitcoin Capital, for which they are offered a 50% equity in the fund. A third part of the generated funds are promised to be invested in Bitcoin Capital’s Bitcoin mining rig in Iceland, a place which will also make sure that investors get to receive daily dividends in the form of newly-minted Bitcoins.

This step is planned to ensure speedy investment returns for the investors, something that puts Bitcoin Capital’s plan in an altogether different category, as it seems. But more than its promises, the VC fund is riding high on its backer’s reputation in the market. Max Keiser is known to be one of the most celebrated faces in the finance sector, for his previous professional collaborations with BBC News, Al Jazeera, Resonance FM and Huffington Post. He currently works for the last two, and also hosts a self-branded financial program on RT, titled Keiser Report. His activism for the cryptocurrency sector however was something that earned him a reputation inside the Bitcoin sector. He supported the idea of decentralization when every government and bank was rubbishing it right away.

“I have been critical of the traditional financial system for many years on my show” Keiser said. “I was the first global news outlet to cover bitcoin when it was trading at $3, recognizing its potential to change the world. Many startups in the bitcoin space credit Keiser Report for getting them started in the business. Bitcoin Capital allows the founders and investors to experiment with new crypto financial business models and currencies to transform global finance.”

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Canada was once a nice country. Harper changed all that.

Canada to Train Ukrainian Police as Russia Conflict Worsens (Bloomberg)

Canada will send officers and provide funding to bolster the Ukrainian police force, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said in his latest show of support for Ukraine on the eve of a Group of Seven nations summit. Canada will never accept the Russian occupation of Crimea or parts of eastern Ukraine, Harper said after meeting Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko on Saturday in Kiev. Work continues between the countries on trade talks and visa restrictions. “I’m proud to be here with you again to demonstrate our continued resolve in the face of the enormous challenge you and all Ukrainians are confronted with,” Harper said after earlier announcing the funding to help train Ukrainian police.

The conflict with Russia is “very high on Canada’s agenda” heading into the G7 summit in Germany, which begins Sunday, Harper said. He called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw all troops, equipment and support for separatists in Ukraine. “Canada will not, and the world must not, turn a blind eye to the near-daily attacks that are killing and wounding Ukrainians here on their own soil, soldiers and civilians alike,” Harper said. Poroshenko thanked Canada, and said he spoke Saturday with the leaders of the U.S., Japan and Germany. “The support by Canada in this very difficult and decisive time is very important for every Ukrainian,” Poroshenko said. “The relentless violation of international norms will not stand without punishment.”

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Brussels lets others do its job and washes its hands.

Greek Island Gateway To EU As Thousands Flee Homelands (Irish Times)

“Excuse me. Is this Greece?” asked a 24-year-old Pakistani man, whose suit was soaked to his waist. Behind him, a group of young Somali men struggled to lift the sole woman passenger from the boat to her wheelchair, the only possession she managed to bring from the other side. Later, Riyan (30), would explain that she had been shot in the back 15 years previously. She said she was making the journey on her own, and her aim was to reach Germany where she hoped she could have an operation. This migrant vessel was one of four to land last Tuesday morning near the beautiful town of Molyvos, with its medieval hilltop fortress that can be seen from miles around.

Tourism is the lifeblood of the place and the permanent population of about 1,500 relies almost exclusively on the money they make during the summer to keep them going during the difficult winter months after the tourists have gone. For weeks, Kempson, a British painter and sculptor who made his home in Molyvos 16 years ago, and his wife Philippa have been daily witnesses to the rapid increase in the numbers of refugees and migrants arriving from Turkey. “It’s been a nightmare for the last few weeks. We really need some help. Only a few of us have been trying to help. This story needs to get out there and Europe really needs to send some help,” he says.

About 70% of those arriving on the boats are Syrian refugees, including many families with young children. They are fleeing the four-year civil war that has devastated their country and, according to the United Nations, triggered the largest humanitarian crisis since the second World War. An estimated 7.6 million people are now displaced within Syria, while almost four million have fled to neighbouring countries, mostly to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, where the vast majority have remained, often in appalling conditions. Syrians in Molyvos say only Europe – by which they usually mean Germany or Sweden – can offer them and their families the safety and opportunities they desperately seek.

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Jun 022015
 
 June 2, 2015  Posted by at 9:49 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  5 Responses »


Lewis Wickes Hine Berrie pickers, Seaford, Delaware. ‘Seventeen children and five elders live here’ 1910

Velocity of Money Below Great Depression Levels (Martin Armstrong)
From Whence Cometh Our Wealth – Labor Or Printing Press? (David Stockman)
Fed’s QE Policy Helped Most Where Needed Least (MarketWatch)
The Winners and Losers of the Fed’s QE
“The Fed Has Been Horribly Wrong” Deutsche Bank Admits (Zero Hedge)
Easy Access to Money Keeps US Oil Pumping (WSJ)
Rate Hike Needed To Pop Bubbles: Robert Shiller (CNBC)
“By Almost Every Measure Stocks Are Overvalued” Warns Goldman (Zero Hedge)
China Stocks Nearly A Quarter Overvalued: Credit Suisse (CNBC)
Don’t Trust Asia’s Booming Stock Markets (Pesek)
Four Recent Bubble Warnings That You Need To Worry About (Jesse Colombo)
Robert Shiller: ‘There Is A Bubble Element To What We’re Seeing’
Goldman Sachs Asked Two Famous Economists If Stocks Are in a Bubble (Bloomberg)
Greece Said To Offer Pension Reform As Debt Talks Near Crunch (Reuters)
Greek Crisis: 2,400 Hours Of Brinkmanship (CNBC)
Audit: Dutch and EU Taxpayers Likely To Lose All Money Lent To Greece (NLTimes)
In Conversation With John Nash On Ideal Money (Yanis Varoufakis)
Russia Accuses EU of Stirring Political Tensions Over Blacklist (Bloomberg)
New York City Task Force to Investigate ‘Three-Quarter’ Homes (NY Times)
At Least 3,900 Medicare Millionaires Revealed in U.S. Data
HSBC Poised To Unveil Thousands More Job Cuts (Sky)
US Supreme Court Hands Defeat To Struggling Homeowners (MarketWatch)
Germany Dominance Over As Demographic Crunch Worsens (AEP)
Let God Be A ‘She’, Says Church Of England Women’s Group (Guardian)

“This is the destruction of Capitalism, and I fear the response against the banks on the next downturn will lead to authoritarianism.”

Velocity of Money Below Great Depression Levels (Martin Armstrong)

The New York banks have been my adversary, to say the least. Alan Cohen, the court receiver put in charge of running Princeton Economics, was simultaneously on the board of directors of Goldman Sachs. When the SEC said the contempt should end, Cohen lied to the court to keep the contempt going, without even receiving a complaint or charges since the original charges were dropped. The New York banks destroyed banking when Robert Rubin of Goldman Sachs managed to get the Clinton Administration to repeal Glass-Steagall. Even Mario Draghi, head of the ECB who is taking interest rates negative, was a vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International and a member of the firm-wide management committee (2002–2005). So, the tentacles of NY spread wide and far.

The corruption in New York controlling Congress, the Justice Department, and the courts, has allowed the NY bankers to rise to the top of the world from a power elite perspective. They even control much of the media and Hollywood. This power that has transformed banking has been emulated by other banks around the world, insofar as Transactional Banking has displaced Relationship Banking as the “new” way to make money. However, the banks outside the USA do not control their governments as fully as they do in the USA. Who does Hillary run to for money? The NY bankers. Yet, the battle over the banking industry’s reputation is emerging everywhere but New York. It intensified last Friday in Australia when two of Australia’s top regulators took a simultaneous shot at the “culture” at the heart of the nation’s largest financial institutions.

The banking industry suffers from Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD), which typically only affects 1% of the population, but they all seem to be working at the top of the banks. NPD is when someone has unrealistic fantasies of success, power, and intelligence. That seems to be a qualification to be on the board of the major New York banks. Ever since the repeal of Glass-Steagall by Bill Clinton in 1999, this “new” way of making money by transforming banking from Relationship to Transactional Banking has destroyed the economy in ways we are soon to discover. The VELOCITY of money has fallen to BELOW Great Depression levels. This is the destruction of Capitalism, and I fear the response against the banks on the next downturn will lead to authoritarianism.

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Stockman comments on the Shorpy picture I posted yesterday in the Debt Rattle.

From Whence Cometh Our Wealth – Labor Or Printing Press? (David Stockman)

It is hard to believe that in these allegedly enlightened times this question even needs to be asked. Are there really educated adults who believe that by dropping helicopter money conjured from thin air, the central bank can actually make society wealthier? Well, yes there are. They spread this lunacy from the most respectable MSM platforms. And, no, I’m not talking about professor Krugman and his New York Times column. At least, he pontificates from a Keynesian framework that has a respectable, if erroneous, intellectual heritage. What I am talking about here is the mindless bunkum issued by so-called financial journalists who swish around Wall Street and Washington exchanging knowing tidbits with policy-makers, deal-makers and each other.

Call it the bubble finance “narrative”, and recognize that its gets more uncoupled from economic facts, logic and plausibility with each passing day in the casino. The estimable folks at The Automatic Earth put a bright spotlight on this crucial matter this morning, even if not by design. Their trademark daily vintage photo was a 1911 picture of a family including all the kids picking berries in the field; they were making GDP the old fashioned way. In the usual manner the site’s “debt rattle” list of links to timely reads followed, and the first was a Bloomberg View opinion piece called“QE For The People: Monetary Policy For The Next Recession” by one Clive Crook. It was actually a case for literally dropping central bank money from the skies to enable policy-makers to better “support demand and keep their economies running”.

In thoughtfully supplying a photo of a helicopter in full flight to accompany Crook’s discourse, the Bloomberg graphics department crystalized the essential economic issue of our times. Namely, whether wealth is made by the Berry Pickers or the Money Printers.

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That’s what it’s designed for.

Fed’s QE Policy Helped Most Where Needed Least (MarketWatch)

The first round of the Federal Reserve’s controversial bond-buying program helped most in parts of the country that needed it least, new research released Monday showed. Conversely, metro areas hit hardest by the recession received the smallest amount of Fed stimulus. At issue was the Fed’s desire with its first round of asset purchases to boost mortgage activity. Mortgage originations, mostly refinancing existing loans, did boom after the Fed announced in November 2008 that it would purchase $500 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities and $100 billion of direct obligations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

But the research, conducted by a team of economists from the University of Chicago and the New York Fed to be presented at a Brookings Institution conference, found mortgage refinancings increased mainly in parts of the country with the fewest underwater homeowners. Loan-to-value ratios varied widely across regions, the study found. Refinancing activity increased most in places where there were few mortgage holders with a loan-to-value ratio above 0.8%, areas including Buffalo, N.Y., and Philadelphia. Most places that experienced large declines in home prices had loan-to-value ratios well above that level, including Las Vegas, Miami and Orlando. So the smallest refinancing response for “QE1” took place in the locations that were hit hardest by the recession.

Areas where borrowers refinanced the most in early 2009 were the same areas in which car purchases increased the most. A separate paper to be presented at the Brookings conference said the Fed’s quantitative-easing programs did not exacerbate income inequality. Josh Bivens, research and policy director of the Economic Policy Institute, said it’s not even clear whether the Fed’s programs were slightly regressive or progressive. While stock-price gains benefited the top 1%, home prices increases helped the bottom 90%, he said. But Bivens warned that the Fed would foster inequality if it rushes to tighten monetary policy before the labor market returns to full employment. “The recent debate about the proper future path of Fed tightening in the next couple of years … is one in which distributional concerns should rightly be front and center,” Bivens said.

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Unbelievable: Carl Riccadonna, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg Intelligence: “You had equity markets benefit from QE, but eventually QE also jump-started the broader recovery..” “Ultimately everyone’s benefiting.”

The Winners and Losers of the Fed’s QE

The jury’s still out on how history will treat the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus program. After the central bank pushed its main policy rate to zero in December 2008, it started buying hundreds of billions of government debt and mortgage-backed securities to keep longer-term interest rates low. That became known as quantitative easing. The real punch of the strategy wasn’t in the quantity of money the Fed was putting in the banking system. It was in the amount of bonds it was taking out of the market, which forced yields down. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet today stand at $4.5 trillion compared with $891 billion at the end of 2007.

Some argue the policy brought the U.S. economy closer to full employment and helped stimulate growth. Others say it exacerbated inequality by inflating the prices of financial assets. At the very least, we can say it created some winners and losers, using data from a batch of papers released this morning from the Brookings Institution. (Ben S. Bernanke and Donald Kohn, the former Fed chairman and vice chairman, are both Brookings fellows.)

Who Wins
• Middle-aged, middle-class households, according to a paper by Matthias Doepke, Veronika Selezneva and Martin Schneider. These folks are more likely to have mortgages, and as borrowers they’d benefit from lower interest rates as well as policies that boost inflation. For example, a woman takes out a fixed-rate mortgage to buy a home. As inflation rises over time, the value of the house increases while the cost of the debt does not.
• The equity class. Households that owned financial assets, especially stocks, made out very well thanks to QE. Markets tend to react positively to expansionary policy, and lower interest rates also send more people into the stock market in search of higher returns. The stock market more than doubled from when the Fed started its first round of quantitative easing back in 2008 through the end of asset purchases in October. “Generally, the higher the income level, the greater the exposure to the financial markets in general and equity markets in particular,” said Carl Riccadonna, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg Intelligence. [..]

To be sure, the issue is nuanced. In the end, the record will probably be kind to quantitative easing, said Bloomberg’s Riccadonna. “You had equity markets benefit from QE, but eventually QE also jump-started the broader recovery,” he said. “Ultimately everyone’s benefiting.”

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Depends what you think the intentions were.

“The Fed Has Been Horribly Wrong” Deutsche Bank Admits (Zero Hedge)

The reason why Zero Hedge has been steadfast over the past 6 years in its accusation that the Fed is making a mockery of, and destroying not only the very fabric of capital markets (something which Citigroup now openly admits almost every week) but the US economy itself (as Goldman most recently hinted last week when it lowered its long-term “potential GDP” growth of the US by 0.5% to 1.75%), is simple: all along we knew we have been right, and all the career economists, Wall Street weathermen-cum-strategists, and “straight to CNBC” book-talking pundits were wrong. Not to mention the Fed.

Indeed, the onus was not on us to prove how the Fed is wrong, but on the Fed – those smartest career academics in the room – to show it can grow the economy even as it has pushed global capital markets into a state of epic, bubble frenzy, with new all time highs a daily event across the globe, while the living standard of an ever increasing part of the world’s middle-class deteriorates with every passing year. We merely point out the truth that the propaganda media was too compromised, too ashamed or to clueless to comprehend. And now, 7 years after the start of the Fed’s grand – and doomed – experiment, the flood of other “serious people”, not finally admitting the “tinfoil, fringe blogs” were right all along, and the Fed was wrong, has finally been unleashed. Here is Deutsche Bank admitting that not only the Fed is lying to the American people:

Truth be told, we think the Fed is obliged to talk up the economy because if they were brutally honest, the economy what vestiges of optimism remain in the domestic sectors could quickly evaporate.

But has been “horribly wrong” all along:

At issue is whether or not the Fed in particular but the market in general has properly understood the nature of the economic problem. The more we dig into this, the more we are afraid that they do not. So aside from a data revision tsunami, we would suggest that the Fed has the outlook not just horribly wrong, but completely misunderstood. … the idea that the economy is “ready” for a removal of accommodation and that there is any sense in it from the perspective of rising inflation expectations and a stronger real growth outlook is nonsense.

And the kicker: it is no longer some “tinfoil, fringe blog”, but the bank with over €50 trillion in derivatives on its balance sheet itself which dares to hint that in order to make a housing-led recovery possible, the Fed itself is willing to crash the housing market!

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Textbook: How QE distorts markets and ends up destroying them.

Easy Access to Money Keeps US Oil Pumping (WSJ)

Wall Street’s generous supply of funds to U.S. oil drillers helped create the American energy boom. Now that same access to easy money is keeping them going, despite oil prices that are languishing around $60 a barrel. The flow of money into oil has allowed U.S. companies to avoid liquidity problems and kept American crude production from falling sharply. Even though more than half of the rigs that were drilling new wells in September have been banished to storage yards, in mid-May nearly 9.6 million barrels of oil a day were pumped across the country, the highest level since 1970, according to the most recent federal data. Helped by a ready supply of money, the flow of oil from the U.S. could keep crude prices low for the remainder of 2015 and beyond.

It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. As crude prices began to plunge last year, many energy experts predicted a repeat of 1986 when U.S. oil companies lost their funding and the industry collapsed into a yearslong bust. Without money, companies had to slow or even stop drilling for the crude that helped create a global glut. Many were forced to sell out to rivals or go bankrupt. But the gloomy scenario of that downturn hasn’t played out on a large scale this time. That is because banks, private- equity firms and institutional investors have continued to pour money into the sector even as oil companies slashed billions of dollars in spending from their budgets and laid off more than 100,000 workers. “What makes this downturn different is there is a lot more capital available,” says Pearce Hammond at investment bank Simmons & Co.

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Bubbles pop anyway. They always do.

Rate Hike Needed To Pop Bubbles: Robert Shiller (CNBC)

The U.S. Federal Reserve should consider lifting interest rates sooner rather than later to tackle speculative bubbles in the housing and stock markets, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Monday. “I’m thinking they (Fed policy makers) ought to be considering that, because that is the mistake they made in the past,” the Yale University professor told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box” when asked whether he believed the Fed should raise interest rates soon or later on. “They didn’t deal with the housing bubble that led to the present crisis. There’s a suggestion in my mind that they should be raising rates now, (but) unfortunately the latest news looks a little weak on the demand side,” Shiller added.

Friday’s economic news painted a dim picture for the U.S. economy: gross domestic product declined at a 0.7% annual rate in the first quarter of the year compared with an initial estimate of 0.2% growth. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for May, meanwhile, marked a fall and the May Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index dropped unexpectedly. Against a weaker tone in economic data, markets have pushed back expectations for the first U.S. rate rise since 2006 from June to later this year. “If I was asked to testify before them (the Fed) I might reconsider, but there is a tendency for central banks to ignore speculative bubbles until it’s too late,” Shiller said, talking about the need for higher interest rates. “It may already be too late. Stock markets in the U.S. are quite high and prices in the real estate market are getting high.”

The Dow Jones hit a record high last month, lifted by a perception that disappointing economic news would encourage the Fed to keep interest rates low for longer than anticipated. Shiller said that some parts of the U.S. — such as San Francisco and California — were in “bubble territory,” with house prices growing rapidly. Shiller, who won the Nobel prize for economics two years ago for research that has improved the forecasting of long-term asset prices, said a recent boom around the world was driven by anxiety. “I call this this the ‘new normal’ boom – it’s a funny boom in asset prices because it’s driven not by the usual exuberance but by an anxiety,” said Shiller. “This is an anxiety driven world – the whole world is driven by anxiety. It is anxiety about the aftermath of the global financial crisis, it’s anxiety about inequality and about computers replacing jobs,” he added.

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Do you really need a hundred sets of numbers to figure that out?

“By Almost Every Measure Stocks Are Overvalued” Warns Goldman (Zero Hedge)

Over the weekend, we first reported that none other than Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller said that in his opinion, unlike 1929, this time everything – stocks, bonds and housing – was overvalued. Curiously, none other than Goldman’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin echoed this sentiment when in his latest weekly note to clients he said that “by almost any measure, US equity valuations look expensive. The typical stock in the S&P 500 trades at 18.1x forward earnings, ranking at the 98th%ile of historical valuation since 1976. For the overall index, the aggregate forward P/E multiple equals 17.2x, a rise of 63% since September 2011, compared with the median expansion of 48% during 9 previous P/E expansion cycles.

Financial metrics such as EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, and P/B also suggest that US stocks have stretched valuations. With tightening on the horizon, the P/E expansion phase of the current bull market is behind us.” Don’t tell that to the SNB, the BOJ or any of the other central banks once again buying Emini futures hands over fist with freshly printed money and a complete disregard to cost basis or downside and losses. Of course, for Goldman to say all of this, it means either the bank is already full to the gills with ES puts, or is just hoping to buy up the S&P to 3000 and above. Here is what else Kostin says on record valuation: US equity valuations are also historically extended when adjusted for the extremely low interest rate environment.

For example, during the past 40 years when the real interest rate (10-year Treasury less core CPI) was between 0% and 1%, the S&P 500 forward P/E multiple averaged 11.2x, well below the current level. Moreover, since 1921 (94 years) when real interest rates have been 0%-1%, the trailing P/E multiple has averaged 13.5x, which is 27% below the current trailing S&P 500 index multiple of 19x. Valuation looks even more striking in the context of current profit margins—the highest in history. Since 2011, margins for S&P 500 (ex-Financials and Utilities) have hovered around the current 9% level. Information Technology has been the driving force for the overall margin expansion.

Profits are highly sensitive to small changes in margins: every 50 basis point shift in S&P 500 margin translates into a roughly $5 per share swing in EPS. Given the current P/E multiple, a $5 shift in EPS would translate into a swing of nearly 90 points to the valuation of the S&P 500. The current P/E expansion cycle has lasted 43 months, the second longest since 1982, but will likely end when interest rates rise. After each of the three prior “first” Fed hikes, P/E multiples contracted by an average of 8%. In the meantime, we expect the 2% dividend yield to generate the entirety of the total return we forecast the S&P 500 index will deliver during the next 12 months. We expect the market will rise to 2150 around mid-year but fade after Fed liftoff in September and end the year at 2100.

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The opposite of sound.

China Stocks Nearly A Quarter Overvalued: Credit Suisse (CNBC)

Whether China shares are in a bubble depends on which data bit catches the fancy, but the market has outstripped its fundamentals and is 23% overbought, Credit Suisse said. “Margins, profitability and value creation continue declining as productivity growth lags real wage growth and product selling prices are eroded,” Credit Suisse said in a note Friday. “Moreover, equity market price momentum has decoupled away from earnings revisions which remain deeply embedded in negative territory.” Its models indicate the market is 23% overbought and has potential downside of 15% in U.S. dollar terms by year-end. The mainland’s shares have rallied sharply this year, despite a brief drop into correction territory last week.

The Shanghai Composite is up around 50% year-to-date, even after last week’s one-day 6.5% plunge. The Shenzhen Composite is up around 111% year-to-date. Credit Suisse attributes the rally to factors including the People’s Bank of China injecting liquidity through its easing measures, retail investors re-allocating assets to stocks and away from bank savings, wealth management products and property. Apart from some restrictions on margin trading, the securities regulator also appears to be letting the rally ride, the bank noted. But is it a bubble? “The evidence for is largely participation and technicals related,” the bank said. “The evidence against is principally valuation related.”

Supporting the bubble view, new share-trading account openings remain elevated and the markets’ average daily trading value has surged to records, it noted. In addition, technical indicators such as deviations from the 200-day moving average and the relative strength index are now comparable to the 2007 A-share bubble, it said. The Shanghai Composite hit its all-time high of 6124 in October of 2007, as the Global Financial Crisis was brewing. However, while the current relative valuation of the mainland-listed A-shares and Hong Kong-listed H-shares is elevated, it remains far below peaks hit in 2008, Credit Suisse noted. Other metrics, such as earnings yield-to-bond-yield, price-to-earnings and price-to-book, are actually significantly more favorable than their 2007 levels, it noted.

Some are more certain about which indicator will call a bubble. “Looking at the market cap to GDP (gross domestic product) ratio as a measure of risk in equity markets, it now seems to us that the recent sharp rise in the Chinese market is the first sign of a bubble without the support of fundamentals,” Societe Generale said in a note Monday. The ratio grew by 124% over the past 12 months, similar to the climb in 2006-2007, it noted. “The Chinese equity market should therefore be closely monitored this summer,” it said.

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“..everyone caught in the same crowded trades needs to get out fast.” And won’t.

Don’t Trust Asia’s Booming Stock Markets (Pesek)

Could a lack of liquidity soon cause Asia’s stock markets to crash? That question might seem fanciful at first glance. Central banks in Frankfurt, London, Tokyo and Washington, by keeping policy rates near or below zero, have been responsible for the arrival of unprecedented waves of cash on Asian financial markets. It’s no accident that Shanghai stocks are up 137% over the last 12 months even as the Chinese economy has slowed; that the Nikkei stock exchange is up 41% surge even as deflation returns to Japan; and that South Korea’s Kospi index is near record highs even as that country’s exports are slumping. But, as economist Nouriel Roubini recently pointed out, macro liquidity, of the sort created by central banks, can easily be accompanied by illiquidity on financial markets.

And when that’s the case, he writes, it creates a “time bomb” by intensifying traders’ tendency toward adopting a herd mentality. Consider last week’s sudden 6.50% drop on the Shanghai stock market. Those panicky hours resembled other “flash crash” moments of recent years: a 10% plunge in U.S. stocks in less than one hour in May 2010; the Fed “taper tantrum” in spring 2013; the Oct. 14 jump in U.S. yields; and last month’s mini meltdown in 10-year German bonds. The common thread between each episode was a sudden wave of fear among traders that, even with unprecedented liquidity injections from central banks, markets might still be too illiquid. And today’s fears about market illiquidity are, in fact, justified.

As Roubini pointed out, “many investments are in illiquid funds and the traditional market makers who smoothed volatility are nowhere to be found.” High-frequency traders and their algorithmic programs account for a growing share of transactions, as do open-ended funds that can exit markets quickly. Meanwhile, banks, which traditionally intervened to stabilize financial markets, are playing a reduced role in trading. These shifts are turbocharging investors’ natural tendency to herd mentality. For now, central banks are reducing stock market volatility by keeping bond yields low. But when surprises occur, Roubini argues, “the re-rating of stocks and especially bonds can be abrupt and dramatic – everyone caught in the same crowded trades needs to get out fast.”

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I don’t need a warning.

Four Recent Bubble Warnings That You Need To Worry About (Jesse Colombo)

I’ve been sounding the alarm in recent years about dangerous new bubbles that have been inflating since the Global Financial Crisis. As I wrote in a viral report last month, I believe that record low interest rates and central bank stimulus programs are the main fuel behind these bubbles and that they will lead to a crisis that is even worse than 2008. In the meantime, these bubbles are creating artificial economic strength and activity that is manifesting itself in the form of our economic recovery. While it often feels lonely and frustrating to warn about such a poorly understood truth, I’m not the only person who has made these observations. Here are four recent bubble warnings made by prominent economists and businesspeople:

\"CAPE\"
Source: VectorGrader.com

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Huh? “I’m not sure that the current situation is a classic bubble because I’m not certain that most people have extravagant expectations.”

Robert Shiller: ‘There Is A Bubble Element To What We’re Seeing’

There isn’t a full-on stock market bubble breaking out, but it sort of looks like it. In an interview with Goldman Sachs’ Allison Nathan this weekend, Yale professor and Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller was asked if the stock market is currently in a bubble. Shiller wouldn’t go so far as to say we’re definitely in a bubble, but said there are some things about today’s current market that look an awful lot like one. Here’s Shiller: “I define a bubble as a social epidemic that involves extravagant expectations for the future. Today, there is certainly a social and psychological phenomenon of people observing past price increases and thinking that they might keep going. So there is a bubble element what we see. But I’m not sure that the current situation is a classic bubble because I’m not certain that most people have extravagant expectations.”

On Saturday, Business Insider’s Henry Blodget argued that stock prices right now look awfully high and said he thinks returns going forward are going to be lousy. In that post, Blodget cites Shiller’s CAPE ratio, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years, which is currently at around its third-highest level ever. The only times Shiller’s CAPE ratio was higher was ahead of the 1929 and 2000 stock market crashes. The Shiller CAPE ratio is about equal where it was before the 2007 crash. In his comments to Goldman Sachs, however, Shiller again echoes something he’s said in the past, which is that the current stock market rally is driven in part by fear. And this behavior makes the current boom a bit different from a “classic bubble,” and is part of what keeps Shiller hedging when characterizing the current market environment.

Shiller again: “In fact, the current environment may be driven more by fear than by a sense of a new era. I detect a tinge of anxiety and insecurity now that is a factor in markets, which is quite different from other market booms historically.” In 2000, Shiller published the first edition of his famous book “Irrational Exuberance” right at the top of the Nasdaq bubble. And so when Shiller talks about bubbles people listen. It seems then, to Shiller, that though we’re not in a classic bubble, the US market is at levels where we should be worried, at least a little bit, about how expensive stock are right now.

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Because Goldman didn’t know?

Goldman Sachs Asked Two Famous Economists If Stocks Are in a Bubble (Bloomberg)

When asked how worried he is about the prospects for the market over the next six months, Professor Shiller says that his concern has risen with the market and that there could very well be a correction in the next year, although the timing of such market events is inevitably difficult. He advised people to both save more and diversify their investments because their portfolios probably won’t do as well as they had hoped — even over the longer-term. Next Goldman talks to Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel, who has continued to be on the bullish side with his buy and hold strategy.

Professor Siegel says he believes stocks are only slightly above their historical valuations today and the level is “completely justified” due to low interest rates. To those that claim the stock market is in a bubble, Professor Siegel says he is in complete disagreement. “In no way do current levels that are nowhere near those highs (of March 2000) qualify as a bubble,” he says. Professor Siegel adds that there isn’t much that would dissuade him from holding equities over the medium term and recommended investors allocate 50% of their portfolios to the U.S., 25% to non-U.S. developed markets and 25% to emerging markets.

Of course Shiller and Siegel are also well-known friends so there is at least one place where they are in agreement and that is the bond market. Both economists said it was fair to say bonds are overvalued and some concern is justified, although neither of them would commit to calling it a bubble. Shiller said that historically, the bond market doesn’t tend to crash like the stock market. Siegel steered away from calling it a bubble due to his expectation that both short- and long-term rates will remain low.

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Something tells me Moscovici hasn’t been paying attention. Or this serves to discredit Syriza. Either way, there’s nothing new on the table.

Greece Said To Offer Pension Reform As Debt Talks Near Crunch (Reuters)

Greece’s leftist government has put forward first proposals for pension reform as debt talks with international creditors reach a crunch point this week with Athens’ cash running out, the European Union’s economics chief said on Tuesday. The report came after the leaders of Germany, France, the EC, the IMF and the ECB agreed at an emergency meeting in Berlin on Monday night to work with “real intensity” to try to wrap up the long-running negotiations in the coming days. [..] EU Economy Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said in a radio interview the talks were making progress at last, citing what he said were new Greek proposals on pensions, a core issue for the creditors, who are demanding some cuts and a crackdown on early retirement to make the complex system financially sustainable.

“We are starting to work in depth on pensions. The Greek government has made some first proposals and the pros and cons are being considered,” Moscovici told France Inter radio. Greek officials played down talk of new pension proposals and EU officials close to the talks have said progress is very slow and they remain a long way from convergence. “Greece has been flexible for a long time on pension reform, willing to scrap incentives for early retirement and proceed with merging pension funds. This is what is still on the table,” a Greek government official said.

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2400 hours Greece could have spend improving its economy.

Greek Crisis: 2,400 Hours Of Brinkmanship (CNBC)

I frequently hear the point made that Tsipras’ support is dwindling. Support for his stance may have halved in recent polls, but we shouldn’t underestimate his popularity at home and the lack of appetite to accept further austerity. The opposition pro-Europe New Democracy party have not seen any gains in support even as the economy dwindles. Tsipras has got plenty of reasons to drag this out. European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Pierre Moscovici reiterated to CNBC that there is no Plan B. Maybe the European Commission don’t need to consider one but investors, governments and central banks do. Last week, ECB vice President Victor Constancio warned CNBC of the turbulence that will ensue if a deal isn’t reached quickly.

Even if you believe a Greek default or exit can be contained and the euro zone will survive, isn’t the greater fear here what this will mean for sentiment, risk assets and markets? U.S. equities are trading around record highs after a lackluster earnings season and as data on Friday confirmed U.S. GDP contracted by 0.7% in the first quarter. Second-quarter data is already showing signs of recovery but it follows Fed Chair Janet Yellen saying she’s still looking to raise rates this year in any case. We can’t rely on bad news being good news for stimulus any more. We should also consider whether Janet Yellen’s more afraid of potential market turbulence created by the start of rate rises or that something else like a Grexit blows any U.S. recovery off course and she’s not taken the opportunity to raise rates while she had it.

It isn’t just about the U.S. China’s Shanghai market snapped a seven-day winning streak on Thursday last week falling 6.5%. The tech-heavy Shenzhen Composite, which had more than doubled this year alone, lost 5.5% – its third-biggest fall in five years. The Chinese Central Bank providing liquidity to offset the growth slowdown with one hand and trying to temper enthusiasm with the other. Japanese equities meanwhile are also trading at 15 year highs despite the concerns regarding the efficacy of Abenomics. Japan’s central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda told CNBC last week he’s not concerned about brewing bubbles.

That’s just the equity markets. Never mind for the bonds markets. With all the liquidity sloshing around you’d be forgiven for questioning investors ability to gauge fair value any more. Even without the Greek woes it is enough to make any risk taker cautious. So while investors grapple with value, economic recovery and the calibration of extraordinary monetary policy the question is whether Greece could trigger a more significant reassessment of current pricing? Maybe, maybe not. But each day these negotiations drag on that risk becomes more likely and investors would surely be wise to expect decent volatility while we wait.

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Note: “Research shows that only 11% of the bailout money ended up in the Greek economy..” Ergo: taxpayers should blame the banks and EU politicians, not the Greeks.

Audit: Dutch and EU Taxpayers Likely To Lose All Money Lent To Greece (NLTimes)

Dutch taxpayers will probably not recover any of the money used for Greece’s financial rescue, said Kees Vendrik, chairman of the Court of Audit in the Netherlands. Dutch people should be realistic about repayment given the current situation, Vendrik told on a television program Radar Extra. “As it now stands, I have to be honest, it’s going to be very difficult,” Vendrik said. In 2010, the former Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager expressed full confidence in Greece repaying the money with interst that the Netherlands lent. Greece received emergency assistance twice. The country received €110 billion in 2010 and €130 in 2012.

The Dutch contribution to the amount was €11.9 billion, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Last year, Vendrik was chairman of the Dutch delegation that participated in an international program to support Greek investigators. In that role, he offered his Greeks colleagues assistance in audits there. Vendrik did not research the financial situation in Greece, but he understands the situation in which the country now finds itself, a spokesman for the organization said.

[From Algemeen Dagblad: Vendrik stated that in all likelihood the entire €240 billion in bailout money will not be paid back. Research shows that only 11% of the bailout money ended up in the Greek economy; the rest went to international banks who had loans outstanding in Greece]

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Behind the theory.

In Conversation With John Nash On Ideal Money (Yanis Varoufakis)

A conversation I was privileged to have with John Nash in June 2000 is posted below as a small tribute to a great man. (The conversation was motivated by a talk John Nash Jr gave in Athens in 2000 entitled IDEAL MONEY. The text of the conversation below was published in 2001 as a chapter in a volume, available only in Greek, entitled Game Theory: A volume dedicated to John Nash, edited by K. Kottaridi and G. Siourounis)

Yanis Varoufakis: Professor Nash, in your talk on Ideal Money, June 2000, at the Old Parliament House in Athens, you commented, in relation to the Eurozone, that membership of a club makes sense only if it is exclusive. (Greeks know this well enough since the earlier consensus among experts that Greece would not be allowed in, made the project of entry into the Eurozone particularly popular here.) Then you strengthened your claim by suggesting that if everyone joins an alliance, the alliance is absurd. But is it? Does a Grand Alliance not gain meaning if its establishment entails unanimous agreement by all members regarding its institutions? Is it not akin to a Grand Bargain over the precise mechanism for distributing gains? (Something like agreeing on the properties a cooperative solution should possess?) And if so, does a Grand Alliance not make sense as a framework for conflict resolution?

John Nash Jr: The words ‘club’ and ‘alliance’ do not have the same meaning. This is why in game theory we use a third word which also differs conceptually from the first two words: ‘coalition’ . It is of course true that it is possible to have a coalition between all the nations (or the states) of the world. The Universal Postal Union, with its Berne headquarters, is a good example. Mind you, it would be far fetched to refer to this union as a ‘club’ . I am not sure I can recall the precise phrase I used in my talk. Nevertheless, a truly Grand Coalition, that includes everyone , is an important and natural concept of game theory. It is the means by which an efficient (in the context of Pareto s definition) agreed resolution to disputes can be imagined following mutual concessions.

Yanis Varoufakis: Regarding your specific proposal (that is, a new Gold Standard based not on Gold but on a basket of suitably weighted material commodities), is your ‘ideal money’ meant as a proxy for transferable utility (such that the outcome of exchanges can become genuinely independent of the way payoffs are calibrated)?

John Nash Jr: The value of effective transferable utility is obvious. However, as far as contemporaneous transactions within the walls of a domestic economy are concerned, the transferability of values can be eased equally well by ideal and non-ideal money. But when it comes to inter-temporal, long-term transactions, e.g. mortgages, the difference between ideal money and typical European currencies would be somewhat intense, if not dramatic.

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Nothing new about the list. Political ploy.

Russia Accuses EU of Stirring Political Tensions Over Blacklist (Bloomberg)

Russia said it’s “deeply disappointed” by the EU’s response to being sent a blacklist of 89 people barred from entering the country. The list was sent “in confidence” to the EU’s permanent representative office in Moscow after “repeated requests” so that they could inform those banned after “several cases when we have been obliged to refuse entry,” Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Meshkov told reporters in Moscow on Monday. Russia began compiling the blacklist more than a year ago and “a separate decision was taken in each case, with concrete reasons,” Meshkov said. “The list was handed over at the technical level” through consular officials and “we didn’t consider it some sort of political step,” he said.

The European External Action Service, the 28-nation EU’s diplomatic arm, said in a statement on Saturday that Russia had responded to demands for transparency by providing the “confidential ‘stop list’” of 89 people barred from the country. The EEAS called the list “totally arbitrary and unjustified.” When the EU crosses “all boundaries” by its actions, “how can one trust such partners?” Meshkov said. The ban is in response to EU measures targeting officials from Russia imposed over the conflict in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, accusing the bloc of seeking confrontation over the issue. Russia showed compromise by sharing the list and she was “shocked” at European efforts to make political capital out of it, she said on her Facebook account.

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That’s a moral low alright.

New York City Task Force to Investigate ‘Three-Quarter’ Homes (NY Times)

Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Sunday he had formed an emergency task force to investigate so-called three-quarter houses in New York City for potentially exploiting addicts and homeless people by taking kickbacks on Medicaid fees for drug treatment while forcing them to live in squalid, illegal conditions. Mr. de Blasio’s announcement came a day after The New York Times published an investigation examining the abuses of the operator of some of the most troubled three-quarter houses. The mayor also called on the state to increase the shelter allowance it gives single people receiving public assistance. The allowance, which has been $215 a month since 1988, has left many homeless people with no options beyond three-quarter housing.

“We will not accept the use of illegally subdivided and overcrowded apartments to house vulnerable people in need of critical services,” Mr. de Blasio said in a statement on Sunday. Thousands of people live in three-quarter homes, which fall somewhere between regulated halfway houses and permanent housing. Also called sober or transitional homes, three-quarter homes are an offshoot of the murky world of outpatient substance abuse treatment for the poor. The number of such homes has grown over the past decade, as the administration of the previous mayor, Michael R. Bloomberg, pushed to reduce homeless shelter rolls. No one has an exact number of three-quarter homes, which are considered illegal because they violate building codes on overcrowding.

And no government agency regulates them, even though the city Human Resources Administration pays landlords the monthly $215 shelter allowance and the state Office of Alcoholism and Substance Abuse Services pays millions of dollars in Medicaid money for the residents’ outpatient treatment. The Times story focused on one landlord, Yury Baumblit, a two-time felon accused by tenants and former employees of treating poor people as instruments for bilking the government. Tenants said that reputable hospitals and nonprofit organizations had referred them to Mr. Baumblit’s operations, as had city shelters.

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Transparency is a good thing.

At Least 3,900 Medicare Millionaires Revealed in U.S. Data

A small group of doctors accounted for a large chunk of Medicare payments once again, data released today by the U.S. government show. Medicare paid at least 3,900 individual health-care providers at least $1 million in 2013, according to a Bloomberg analysis of data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Overall, the agency said it released data on $90 billion in payments to 950,000 individual providers and organizations. On average, doctors were reimbursed about $74,000, though five received more than $10 million. The U.S. has been increasing transparency for Medicare, which accounts for the largest portion of federal spending after defense and Social Security.

CMS also released information Monday about $62 billion in Medicare payments to hospitals and outpatient facilities in 2013, reflecting more than 7 million discharges. Monday’s data exclude the privately run program known as Medicare Advantage, which accounted for about 30% of beneficiaries last year, and the drug prescription benefits of Medicare Part D. Payments in the drug program were released for the first time earlier this year. Some payments were sent to organizations rather than individuals. There are about 897,000 active physicians in the U.S., according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

The two highest-paid doctors in 2013 are now under legal scrutiny. Cardiologist Asad Qamar, who was No. 1, has since been accused by the Justice Department of billing for unnecessary tests and cardiovascular procedures. He received about $15.9 million in payments in 2013. In a video released in January, Qamar called the government’s claims baseless. “I assure you that these accusations are a fiction,” he said.

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They will be free to seek honorable employment.

HSBC Poised To Unveil Thousands More Job Cuts (Sky)

HSBC will next week set out plans to cut thousands more jobs across its global workforce as it tries to reassure shareholders that its focus on costs remains undiminished after a series of reputational crises. Sky News understands that Stuart Gulliver, HSBC’s chief executive, will set out a revised target for headcount reductions that will be implemented by the end of 2017 at an investor day next week. The precise job cuts number that will be outlined by Mr Gulliver on June 9 was unclear on Monday, although insiders said that it was likely to be between 10,000 and 20,000. One source said the numbers were still being worked on and had yet to be finalised.

Europe’s biggest lender employed 258,000 people at the end of last year, but it has already abandoned a target set two years ago to reduce its employee base to between 240,000 and 250,000 by 2016 because of the fast-changing nature of bank regulation. It is understood that the headcount reductions figure announced next week will exclude the potential impact of the sale of HSBC’s operations in Brazil and Turkey, where the bank does not disclose how many people work for it. Sky News revealed in April that HSBC had hired Goldman Sachs to find a buyer for the Brazilian business, which is expected to be worth several billion dollars.

The new jobs figure will also not take account of a possible eventual separation of HSBC’s UK arm, which Mr Gulliver said last month was conceivable because of a requirement for big UK lenders to create separate ring-fenced entities by 2019. Shareholders will be anxious for an update next week on the methodology for reviewing the location of its headquarters, which will conclude by the end of the year. Hong Kong, where HSBC was domiciled until its takeover of the Midland Bank in the early 1980s, is seen by analysts as the likeliest destination if it does decide to relocate.

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“The true economic impact of the Supreme Court’s decision may not be seen until the next economic downturn..”

US Supreme Court Hands Defeat To Struggling Homeowners (MarketWatch)

Underwater homeowners who file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection are still on the hook for secondary loans tied to their properties, the Supreme Court said Monday. In a nine-to-zero decision, the court said in Bank of America, N.A. v. Caulkett that borrowers whose homes are completely underwater — debtors owe more on a mortgage than the home is worth — cannot void or “strip off” a junior lien when they file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. A junior lien, such as a home-equity loan, is taken after a first mortgage, and uses a home as collateral. In the case, two borrowers each had two mortgages on their homes, with Bank of America holding the junior liens. Both borrowers were underwater and filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy two years ago. The borrowers wanted to “strip off” the junior mortgages, shedding those debts.

On Monday the Supreme Court cited a decision from a prior case, Dewsnup v. Timm, finding that lenders still have a secured claim, “regardless of whether the value of that property would be sufficient to cover the claim.” The decision “is a clear victory for mortgage lenders” said Isaac Boltansky at Compass Point Research & Trading. “It clarifies the path to recoveries for second lien holders in bankruptcy,” “This decision will undoubtedly make the bankruptcy process more difficult for impacted borrowers.” [..] Given the current economy — home prices are rising and the labor market is strengthening — the court’s decision “is likely to be muted in the near-term,” Boltansky said. But that doesn’t mean that there won’t be consequences, he added. “The true economic impact of the Supreme Court’s decision may not be seen until the next economic downturn,” Boltansky said.

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Getting old fast. “The German government expects the population to shrink from 81m to 67m by 2060..”

Germany Dominance Over As Demographic Crunch Worsens (AEP)

Germany’s birth rate has collapsed to the lowest level in the world and its workforce will start plunging at a faster rate than Japan’s by the early 2020s, seriously threatening the long-term viability of Europe’s leading economy. A study by the World Economy Institute in Hamburg (HWWI) found that the average number of births per 1,000 population dropped to 8.2 over the five years from 2008 to 2013, further compounding a demographic crisis already in the pipeline. Even Japan did slightly better at 8.4. “No other industrial country is deteriorating at this speed despite the strong influx of young migrant workers. Germany cannot continue to be a dynamic business hub in the long-run without a strong jobs market,” warned the institute.

The crunch is aggravated by the double effect of a powerful post-war baby boom followed by a countervailing baby bust – the so-called “Pillenknick”. The picture in Portugal (nine) and Italy (9.2) is almost as bad. The German government expects the population to shrink from 81m to 67m by 2060 as depressed pockets of the former East Germany go into “decline spirals” where shops, doctors’ practices, and public transport start to shut down, causing yet more people to leave in a vicious circle. A number of small towns in Saxony, Brandenburg and Pomerania have begun to contemplate plans for gradual “run-off” and ultimate closure, a once unthinkable prospect. Chancellor Angela Merkel warned in a speech in Davos earlier this year that Germany will lose a net 6m workers over the next 15 years, shrinking gradually over the rest of this decade before going into free-fall.

The IMF expects the decline in the 2020s to be more concentrated – and harder to handle – than the gentler paces of decline seen in Japan so far. Britain and France are in far better shape, with an average of 12.5 births per 1,000 in from 2008-2013. The IMF expects both countries to overtake Germany in total GDP by the middle of century and possibly even by 2040, implying a radical shift in the European balance of power. Germany’s leaders are themselves acutely conscious that their current hegemonic position in Europe is largely a mirage, certain to fade as more powerful historical currents come to the fore.

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I’m all for it. A great idea. Male dominance leads to mayhem.

Let God Be A ‘She’, Says Church Of England Women’s Group (Guardian)

A group within the Church of England is calling for God to be referred to as female following the selection of the first female bishops. The group wants the church to recognise the equal status of women by overhauling official liturgy, which is made up almost exclusively of male language and imagery to describe God. Rev Jody Stowell, a member of Women and the Church (Watch), the pressure group that led the campaign for female bishops, said: “Orthodox theology says all human beings are made in the image of God, that God does not have a gender. He encompasses gender – he is both male and female and beyond male and female. So when we only speak of God in the male form, that’s actually giving us a deficient understanding of who God is.”

Stowell said discussions over terminology arose out of a Westminster faith debate on whether the consecration of female bishops would make a difference in the Church of England. The matter has been discussed within the transformation steering group, a body that meets in Lambeth Palace to “explore the lived experience of women in ordained ministry”. The group has issued a public call to bishops to encourage more “expansive language and imagery about God”. The Rev Emma Percy, chaplain of Trinity College Oxford and a member of Watch, said the effect of using both male and female language would be to get rid of “the notion that God is some kind of old man in the sky”. She said many people in the church had been having this debate for a long time. “It’s just the church moves slowly.

[The debate] caught the imagination now because we’ve got women bishops so in a sense the church has accepted that women are equally valued in God’s sight and can represent God at all levels. We want to encourage people to be freer, and we want to get the Liturgical Commission to understand that people are actually quite open to this and there is room for richer language to be used.” In her role at the university, Percy said she had noticed people had become more open to modern terminology. “In the last two or three years we’ve seen a real resurgence and interest in feminism, and younger people are much more interested in how gender categories shouldn’t be about stereotypes. We need to have a language about God that shows God can be expressed in lots of diverse terms,” she said.

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May 222015
 


NPC Dedication of Francis Asbury statue, Washington, DC 1924

The present Chinese leadership appears to be trying to gain (regain?) more -if not full- control over the country’s economic system, while at the same time (re-)boosting the growth it has lost in recent years.

President Xi Jinping, prime minister Li Keqiang and all of their subservient leaders – there are 1000’s of those in a 1.4 billion citizens country- apparently think this can be done. Yours truly doubts it.

As I’ve repeatedly said over the past years, I don’t think that they ever understood what would happen if they opened up the country to a more free-market, capitalist structure. That doing so would automatically reduce their political power, since a free market, in whatever shape and form, does not rhyme with the kind of control which the Communist Party has been used to for decades, and which the current leaders have grown up taking for granted.

I don’t think they’re fools or anything, just that their -preconceived- ideas of power don’t rhyme with the kind of economy Beijing, starting with Deng Xiao Ping, has created. In particular, they have allowed other segments of society to accumulate great wealth, and with wealth comes power.

And in fine Pandora’s Box fashion, it’s very hard, if not impossible, to reverse the process. This failure to grasp to what extent these ‘market liberation’ policies have had a Sorcerer’s Apprentice effect, may, if not must, lead to utter chaos and worse…

A closely related failure is that the rulers have allowed the shadow banking system to grow to ginormous proportions. Likely, in their eyes this ‘merely’ helped the economy grow at double digit speed for years, and they could stop it at will. But something else was growing along with it: the power of the shadow banks -and the people behind them-, both economic and political. Which is not acceptable in a one party rules all system.

And so there is a crackdown going on, presented as ‘reform’, and shadow bank loans have indeed diminished. But that is hurting the economy much more than it heals it. And so measures are reversed on the fly.

The official line is that China has to become a more consumer based economy, if only because exports are not what they used to be, due to lower living standards in the major customer economies in the western world.

The first part of the private citizens’ segment of this shift was the housing boom. Though the Chinese are traditionally strong savers, certainly compared to for instance Americans, they did borrow a lot, got into debt, to fund their real estate purchases. The first part of the problem is that not exactly all of that was borrowed from ‘official’ banks. The second is that home prices are now falling in most cities.

The Chinese are not only known as savers, they’re also notorious gamblers. That accounts for a substantial part of the housing boom, but it accounts even more for what came when that boom started fainting: stock market insanity. A craze that was fully encouraged by Beijing. As Bloomberg put it the other day:

[..] government officials and state media have encouraged the rally. China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported last week that the advance in stocks has further to go, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission has said that market gains reflect support for the economy.

Private investors, grandmas and teenage granddaughters, still believe Beijing controls the whole game. They undoubtedly must also think Xi and Li will make the housing sector rise from its ashes. This is a huge risk for the Communist Party. But they must have the illusion that they got it down. Government and citizens all believe.

The past few days have seen 2 notable companies, Hanergy Thin Film Solar and real estate/electronics conglomerate Goldin Group, lose about half their market cap within a day, for a total loss of some $50 billion. In Hanergy’s case, it reportedly took less than half an hour. And yesterday, Joyou, a Chinese branch of German bathroom giant Grohe, went straight from $400 million to just about zero.

It looks like all Beijing has left in its arsenal is extend and pretend. The question is, does it have the gunpowder to do that? While tons of people habitually point to Beijing’s $4 trillion sovereign bonds stock, they may not be a cure-all.

The same people might want to consider to what extent the Chinese growth ‘miracle’ has been funded by debt. By the printing press. And while they’re at it, they may want to ponder what’s going to happen to that debt, now growth has started sputtering.

There seems to be a consensus that Chinese debt is somewhere in the range of $28 trillion, which is almost twice US GDP, and almost three times Chinese GDP. And for all we know the debt may be much higher still. All we really have is official numbers, plus a few ‘indirect’ data. One thing we do know is that Beijing will always make everything look better than it is. Every politician does.

And we know that they have a substantial series of issues to deal with. In fact, there are so many it’s impossible to catch them all in one comprehensive essay. China’s not nearly as simple as Greece. Let’s try a few:

• China’s housing boom is deflating, with prices down up to 6% YoY in many places, though of course for now less severe in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai. As one comment said recently, paraphrased: ‘there are no more buyers, everyone around here already owns property.’

• China is in the grip of a stock mania, with millions who are losing out on their apartment investments trying to make up for their losses with stocks. Many borrow heavily for their ‘profits’ (and not always from official banks). The stock mania is already popping as well. It will probably rise a bit more at times and at places, but exchanges that skyrocket when economies flatline or worse, will be smacked down by fundamentals at some point. That is true on Wall Street and in Europe, and it’s also true in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

IPO’s are falling out of the deep blue skies like so many frogs, and people seem to think there’s all this pent-up demand for them, but the Hanergy and Goldin examples should serve as huge red lights flashing. And besides: what does pent-up demand mean when people borrow substantial parts of credit used for stock purchases?

When you read that at the Shenzhen exchange, rallies of more than 500% aren’t unusual, and the 103 stocks listed trade at an average 375 times reported earnings, you should know you’re looking at an ordinary slot machine, not an exchange that reflects any underlying real economy.

• Local governments are heavily in debt to the shadow banking system. Their liabilities may well exceed $6 trillion The crack down on the latter does not change that. Beijing has introduced a swap system, where paper can be swapped for bonds of much longer maturity at lower rates, but that leaves the question of who’s going to pay the debt to the shadow system.

Do local governments now need to borrow more from state banks just to pay off their loans to the shadow banking system? Or are the state banks themselves going to pay the debt after the swap? Or is perhaps the PBoC itself going to pay off the shadow banks directly? It looks as if the swap measures, which are pretty absurd in themselves since they encourage more borrowing, do not -or hardly at all- involve the ‘shadow debt’.

• Chinese factory activity is contracting. This is not growth slowing down, this is negative growth. Chinese consumers don’t help to avoid this, because they’re not consuming. They are doing one of three things: pay off housing -margin- debt as prices are falling, go nuts for stocks, or they are saving. No consumer based society is in sight.

• Capital outflow was $159 billion in Q1. This should be a major worry for Beijing. It hurts China’s international financial position. The country’s also stuck in its US dollar peg, and it dare not risk get out because of the potential losses on its Treasurys holdings. It’s all nice and stuff that the IMF considers including the yuan into its SDR basket, but it’s not a one way street to glory, or to the demise of the USD as some would have you think, for that matter.

Meanwhile, China keeps investing billions abroad. Untold billions in Africa. $50 billion in Brazil to damage the Amazon even more, $60 billion in the new Silk Road project.

But where does that money come from? Why is there so little scrutiny of that? Why do we all allow the Chinese to purchase our homes and our land and our industries, and make them all more expensive for ourselves?

Given that $28 trillion debt load, how is this not monopoly money, and why couldn’t we just as easily print that ourselves?

Is this a sign of how great the Chinese economy is, or is it perhaps a sign of how awful our own economies are really doing, and how indebted we are compared to Beijing? Is it because they caused our manufacturing sectors to all but vanish? How and why can a country blow a $28 trillion+ debt bubble in a decade and proceed to use that debt to buy the world? What does that say about that world?

As for China itself, and the losses on homes and stocks that are in the offing, I’ve long been on record stating I can’t see how it will not descent into civil war, and I still don’t. As I said above, Beijing never understood what forces it unleashed when it started ‘freeing’ its market, and from what I can see, it still doesn’t.

Or maybe it has, and got too scared to call a halt to what’s happening. That recent sudden permission for all 1.4 billion Chinese to open 20 stock trading accounts may be an act of desperation, as it came when real estate prices started tanking. But Xi and Li still must know, and fear, what awaits them if and when those stocks and apartments start their descent into hell.

May 222015
 


Harris&Ewing Oil for salads 1918

1 in 3 Americans Have Metabolic Syndrome (LiveScience)
France To Force Big Supermarkets To Give Away Unsold Food To Charity (AFP)
ECB Claims Austerity “Complements” QE (Zero Hedge)
Now The Bank Of England Needs To Deliver QE For The People (Guardian)
572 Rate Cuts Since 2008, One Every Three Trading Days (Zero Hedge)
David Stockman: The Morning After Will Be Nasty (CNBC)
There’s A Simple Way To Make Sure Bankers Don’t Rig Markets Again (Guardian)
Hanergy-Goldin’s Wild Rides are Nothing Next to Shenzhen Stocks (Bloomberg)
Draghi: Growth Is ‘Too Low Everywhere’ In Europe (AP)
EU Demands Greek Banks Revise Their Restructuring Plans (Kathimerini)
Greece Submerges as Crisis Fallout Worse Than Emerging Markets (Bloomberg)
Fight To Save Greek Pension Takes Centre Stage In Brussels, Athens (Guardian)
The Big Italian Pension Fight (Reuters)
Housing Crisis Will Halve Number Of Young Homeowners In Five Years (Guardian)
Saudi Kingdom Built On Oil Foresees Fossil Fuel Phase-Out This Century (FT)
Bank of Japan Keeps Massive Monetary Stimulus Intact (CNBC)
Dark Days For Western Australian Property Market (NewDaily)
Washington Asks Athens To Back Anti-Russia Sanctions (RT)
Ukraine Laws Ban Sympathy For Communism, Honor Nazi Collaborators (Guardian)
Washington Throws in the Towel on Ukraine, Shifts to ‘Plan B’ (Sputnik)

Say goodbye to your health care system. And your life expectancy.

1 in 3 Americans Have Metabolic Syndrome (LiveScience)

More than a third of adults in the U.S. have a condition called “metabolic syndrome,” which involves a combination of risk factors such as high blood pressure, diabetes and obesity, according to a new study. In the study, researchers looked at data from 2011 and 2012 and found that about 35% of U.S. adults had metabolic syndrome (also known as Syndrome X). The health conditions that are the components of metabolic syndrome may contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease and even premature death, the researchers said. “That’s a scary %age — that a third of adults have it,” said study author Dr. Robert J. Wong, of the Alameda Health System-Highland Hospital in Oakland, California.

Although the researchers knew that obesity affects more than a third of adults in the U.S., Wong said that before the new results, he thought that the%age of people with metabolic syndrome “would be a little bit less.” To have metabolic syndrome, a person must have at least three of the five conditions that are considered to be “metabolic risk factors,” according to the National Institutes of Health. The five conditions are: a large waistline, a high level of triglycerides (a type of fat found in the blood), a low level of “good” HDL cholesterol, high blood pressure and a high level of blood sugar after fasting.

In the study, the researchers examined data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey collected between 2003 and 2012. In the survey, data are collected from not only interviews with the participants, but also physical exams. The researchers also found that the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome increased with age. They found that 47% of people ages 60 and older had metabolic syndrome, compared with 18% of people ages 20 to 39. Among people ages 60 and older, more than 50% of women, and more than 50% of Hispanics, had the syndrome.

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Let’s make this an international initiative.

France To Force Big Supermarkets To Give Away Unsold Food To Charity (AFP)

In a rare show of unity France’s parliament voted unanimously Thursday to ban food waste in big supermarkets, notably by outlawing the destruction of unsold food products. “It’s scandalous to see bleach being poured into supermarket dustbins along with edible foods,” said Socialist member of parliament Guillaume Garot who sponsored the bill. Under the new legislation, supermarkets will have to take measures to prevent food waste and will be forced to donate any unsold but still edible food goods to charity or for use as animal feed or farming compost. All large-sized supermarkets will have to sign contracts with a charity group to facilitate food donations. French people throw away between 20kg to 30kg (44 to 66 pounds) of food per person per year costing an estimated €12bn to €20bn ($13-22bn) annually. The government is hoping to slice food waste in half by 2025.

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In fact, it does. QE makes the rich richer, austerity makes the poor poorer.

ECB Claims Austerity “Complements” QE (Zero Hedge)

The ECB’s move to front-load asset purchases effectively means that QE will be expanded in months when net supply is positive and tapered when negative, which underscores a feature of PSPP that sets it apart from QE in the US and Japan: Mario Draghi is buying at a time when European governments have been cornered into an austerity fixation by the troika, meaning in many cases, monthly asset purchase targets will be difficult to hit owing lackluster supply. This of course highlights something rather absurd about the ECB’s asset purchase program specifically, and about Brussels’ stance on fiscal discipline more generally.

Namely, there’s something quite contradictory about telling governments to tighten their belts while promising to buy any and every piece of paper their treasury departments care to issue. In fact, it’s probably fair to say that a €1.1 trillion QE program simply cannot peacefully coexist with a strict, currency bloc-wide austerity policy. [..] In other words, the ECB’s announcement in January has made it easier for EMU governments to borrow (the opposite of fiscal discipline), recent bond market turmoil notwithstanding. But the ECB is willfully ignorant (at least we hope it’s willful, although with central bankers, it’s hard to say what they might or might not understand) of the fact that its policies run counter to notions of fiscal restraint:

At the same time, a strong signal needed to be sent to euro area governments urging them to press ahead with structural reforms and to take measures to improve the business environment. Only with such complementary action could the full benefits of the monetary policy measures be reaped. Swift and effective implementation of appropriate reforms in the euro area would not only lead to higher sustainable growth in the medium to long term but also raise expectations of permanently higher incomes and encourage households to expand consumption …

It doesn’t get much more ridiculous than that. Coeure has just called fiscal reform “complementary” to a €1.1 trillion government bond buying program. But these two things aren’t complimentary at all, a fact which is on full display in Germany where the government does not need to borrow money, meaning that unless Bunds can be purchased in the secondary market, QE simply can’t be implemented in full under the capital key.

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“..to increase consumption by 1% of GDP, you would need a transfer of 3% of GDP. UK QE currently stands at about 20% of annual GDP.”

Now The Bank Of England Needs To Deliver QE For The People (Guardian)

Government policy is based upon a belief that now the crisis is over, the animal spirits of the private sector will awaken and interest rates gradually normalise. But this is policy-making based on hope. A genuinely responsible government needs a contingency plan in case hope fails us. And if the Bank is to be the leader, as well as the lender of last resort, we should at least give them the tools to do the job. With fiscal policy off the table, and existing monetary tools exhausted, we propose that the government legislates to empower the Bank of England with the ability to make payments directly to the household sector – QE for the people.

With this tool the Bank would be equipped to mitigate any sharp slowdown in the economy, caused by domestic or external factors, such as a deflationary shock from a Chinese or US recession, or a continued slump in the eurozone. The empirical evidence from analogous policies – such as tax rebates in the US – suggests that transfers to the household sector would have a far greater impact on demand at a fraction of the size of QE. Consumers appear to quickly spend between a third and a half of any cash windfalls. So to increase consumption by 1% of GDP, you would need a transfer of 3% of GDP. UK QE currently stands at about 20% of annual GDP. The Bank of England estimates this raised GDP by 3%. Further QE would likely have less effect.

So cash transfers to consumers are a far more effective stimulus than that provided by more QE for a lower spend. Consistent with operational independence of the Bank of England, the size of payments and their timing should be solely under its control, and subject to the inflation target. Parliament needs to equip the Bank with the infrastructure to administer payments, and determine in advance the recipients. An equal payment to all households is likely to be the least controversial rule. It would have an immediate impact on spending and it is transparent and fair – favouring neither borrowers nor savers, rich nor poor, nor one demographic over another.

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One more way to spell ‘insane’.

572 Rate Cuts Since 2008, One Every Three Trading Days (Zero Hedge)

If sometimes it feels like central banks have “have your back” when trading stocks every single day since the collapse of Lehman, you are wrong. They only have your back every third day, because according to Bank of America there have been a ridiculous 572 rate cuts around the globe since the fall of Lehman, one every three trading days!

Perhaps this explains why with 572 rate cuts in the rear view mirror, which have succeeded in pushing global stock markets to record highs and yet have failed to either unleash the “wealth effect” for the rest of us, to stimulate inflation, or send US GDP into a stable, 3%+ growth trend, in fact culminating with the most recent GDP contraction during the so-called recovery (at least until all negative data is revised positively), one can see why the Fed is just a little worried about breaking a trend that has been working… if only to create the illusion of paper wealth for a select few.

P.S. the number above of course does not account for the $13 trillion in direct liquidity injections central banks have conducted since 2008, which have flowed through directly into both the bond and the stock market, leading to unprecedented bubble in both asset classes.

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No doubt about it.

David Stockman: The Morning After Will Be Nasty (CNBC)

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“..the surest way to change incentives is to ensure crooked employees, rather than the banks, face criminal charges”

There’s A Simple Way To Make Sure Bankers Don’t Rig Markets Again (Guardian)

Life is looking up at Barclays, eh? The share price stands at a 15-month high, the new chairman promises more action, and one of these days the dividend might be lifted. What’s that? There’s a $2.4bn (£1.5bn) fine for rigging currency markets? Pah. It’s ancient history. Besides, it could have been worse. That, roughly speaking, was the market’s reaction to the forex fines and, strange to report, it was logical. Barclays had set aside £2bn and came away with a less bloody nose. The “spare” £500m might yet be absorbed in a related inquiry but Barclays shares rose 3%. Royal Bank of Scotland’s improved 2%. There is a sense that the high watermark for fines has passed. Naturally, the bank’s management treated us to another chorus of regret.

“This demonstrates again the importance of our continuing work to build a values-based culture and strengthen our control environment,” said Barclays chief executive Antony Jenkins. Yes, but the events also demonstrate the inadequacies of past stabs at reform. Remember, the forex fiasco was continuing while banks were being investigated for rigging Libor, a different market. Compliance departments should have been on red alert and traders in a state of fear. Instead, as the New York State Department of Financial Services notes, Barclays was alerted to potential misconduct in forex in mid-2012 but did not begin a full investigation “until the publication of a Bloomberg article in June 2013”.

Barclays and the others, no doubt, will succeed in ensuring there is no repeat in the forex and Libor markets. Indeed, devious traders would be dumb to try their luck in the same spot. But financial markets are deep and wide and those on the front line will continue to have better, and faster, information than their back office policeman. They will also be paid more. Meanwhile, a ban on multi-bank electronic chatrooms removes one venue for collusion and ripping off clients, but wine bars and corridors cannot be abolished. As with all these rigging scandals, there’s a simple conclusion: the surest way to change incentives is to ensure crooked employees, rather than the banks, face criminal charges. The authorities keep saying that’s the plan; it never seems to work out that way.

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A surefire way to go broke.

Hanergy-Goldin’s Wild Rides are Nothing Next to Shenzhen Stocks (Bloomberg)

In Shenzhen, home of China’s hottest stock market, rallies of more than 500% aren’t unusual. What’s become rare are the type of corrections that rocked Hong Kong this week. Hanergy Thin Film Power Group Ltd. and Goldin Financial Holdings Ltd. plunged more than 45% in Hong Kong after surging more than sixfold in the past 12 months. Across the border in Shenzhen, there are 103 stocks that rallied that much in a year, compared with only four in the former British colony. Among the 1,721 stocks on the Shenzhen Composite Index, four have declined this year. The Shenzhen benchmark jumped 12% this week, the most since 2008, as turnover topped trading in both Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Investors have piled into the non-state companies that dominate the Shenzhen bourse after the government pledged to support developing industries, including technology and health care, to shift the economy away from manufacturing and property development. “Hanergy and Goldin are a good reminder for investors in China,” Ronald Wan, chief executive at Partners Capital, said in Hong Kong. “They have a close similarity with many stocks in Shenzhen which have rallied based on speculation rather than fundamentals.” The 103 stocks in the Shenzhen 500% club trade at an average 375 times reported earnings, while their average market capitalization has risen to $3.5 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Many of them recently sold shares for the first time.

The best performer is Beijing Baofeng, a provider of online movie players, which has jumped 3,822% since its initial public offering two months ago and made its chairman Feng Xin a billionaire. Zhejiang Longsheng Auto Parts, which makes car-seat parts, has climbed about 1,600% in the past year to trade at almost 600 times profits. Wanda Cinema’s 1,047% rally since its January IPO turned it into a $22.1 billion company.

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Compared to what?

Draghi: Growth Is ‘Too Low Everywhere’ In Europe (AP)

ECB head Mario Draghi said that “growth is too low everywhere” in the 19-country eurozone despite a modest recovery. Draghi made the blunt remark as he opened a conference on the unemployment problem plaguing several of the EU member countries that share the euro currency. “Recently, economic conditions have improved somewhat in Europe,” he said at the ECB’s conference on inflation and unemployment in Sintra, Portugal. “But growth is too low everywhere.” He said that inflation was too low — a sign of economic weakness — and that “people in Europe are frustrated by the lack of growth they have witnessed in recent years.” Draghi’s remarks come as the eurozone shows increasing signs of recovery.

The economy grew 0.4% in the first quarter, and growth this year may be strong enough to start whittling down an unemployment rate of 11.3%, economists say. Still, it could take years to achieve a significant reduction in the jobless rate, which remains painfully high in the weaker member countries. Youth unemployment is 50% in both Greece and Spain. The eurozone also faces a challenge in Greece, where the government is struggling to pay its debts despite two rounds of bailout loans from other eurozone countries and the IMF. A default could lead Greece to leave, raising questions about the currency union’s permanence. Draghi’s growth call was echoed by a top U.S. Federal Reserve official at the conference.

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said the euro’s crisis has led to new institutions such as EU-level banking supervision and procedures to wind up bad banks to spare taxpayers the costs of bailouts. Fischer said the euro appeared to have weathered the current crisis but warned that “in the longer run,” the monetary union “will not survive unless it also brings prosperity to its members.” U.S. officials have pressed Europe to tackle its growth problem. The eurozone remains a key market for many U.S. firms and its health is an important factor for the global economy. The eurozone has struggled with a crisis over too much government and bank debt since Greece reported its deficit was out of control in 2009.

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More pressure.

EU Demands Greek Banks Revise Their Restructuring Plans (Kathimerini)

The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Competition is to ask Greek banks to revise their restructuring plans in light of the rapid deterioration of financial conditions in the country. Kathimerini understands that Brussels technocrats have already expressed to local banking officials their concerns regarding the existing restructuring plans, citing the need for an adjustment to the new macroeconomic data, the deterioration of liquidity conditions, the sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) and the general delays observed in the implementation of the plans owing to the political and economic uncertainty of the last few months. The forecasts on the course of the Greek economy, on which the stress tests of last year had been based, provided for 2.9% growth this year, rising to 3.7% in 2016. These estimates are now seen as unrealistic and the Commission has already revised its estimate for 2015 to 0.5%.

Banks have also received two more big blows: The dramatic deterioration of liquidity conditions and the spike in bad loans. Since the start of the year, the flight of deposits has exceeded €30 billion and the sole access lenders have to funding is emergency liquidity assistance (ELA). Greek banks have drawn over €120 billion from the Eurosystem, fully reversing the commitments they had made in their restructuring plans to reduce their dependence on ECB liquidity, as lenders have now slumped back to 2012 in dependence terms. On the bad loans’ front, the uncertainty of recent months, the inability of the government to reach an agreement with Greece’s creditors and the cultivation of expectations about more favorable repayment terms have led to an increase in NPLs. From an estimated 34.4% in end-December, the rate of bad loans is estimated to have reached 35% in end-March and has kept growing since.

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And that’s supposed to have happened because Greeks all lived beyond their means?

Greece Submerges as Crisis Fallout Worse Than Emerging Markets (Bloomberg)

The Greek economy risks being more a submerging market than an emerging market. As another round of aid talks between the Mediterranean nation and its creditors ends without a deal, its economy is faring even worse than a string of developing countries which suffered traumas in the last two decades. That leaves Commerzbank AG declaring the country is in little position to pare its debt and that default or a restructuring may loom. “Just as with emerging markets in the past there is a point in time where you need to move on to the next stage rather than being paralyzed,” Simon Quijano-Evans at Commerzbank in London said. “In Greece, we need to think of next steps and be innovative.”

To illustrate Greece’s pain, he published a report this month comparing how the economic fallout from its five-year-old crisis compared with the bouts of turmoil suffered in the last two decades by Turkey, Argentina, Latvia and Thailand. The result illustrates why Commerzbank sees a 50% chance of Greece ultimately leaving the euro area. While Athens has imposed the tightest fiscal squeeze of the five and pushed its budget balance excluding interest payments into surplus from a deficit of about 10% of gross domestic product in 2009, Turkey and Argentina were doing better at the same stage. Even worse, debt of around 175% of GDP is bigger than the 110% at the outset and surpasses those of all the other crisis-hit economies five years on. Turkey managed to cut its debt to 35% from 100% without defaulting.

The amount of lost output is also bigger in Greece than the other economies, all of which had begun to recover by now, and its 25% unemployment is higher. The IMF estimates the Greek economy will be 20% smaller this year than in 2009. To Quijano-Evans, such data reflect how Greece’s economy failed to improve with assistance and austerity. It also demonstrates the challenge of trying to revive an economy without a currency of its own. “Under normal circumstances, if a country adjusts its fiscal backdrop in a meaningful way and allows its exchange rate to float freely, one eventually sees that passing through into a stronger economic picture, coupled with a drop in debt/GDP,” said Quijano-Evans.

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“Only a fraction of the 1.4 million people out of work receive unemployment benefits.”

Fight To Save Greek Pension Takes Centre Stage In Brussels, Athens (Guardian)

Manolis Rallakis likes to take to the streets to fight for his rights. Battles have come and gone – but always been won. “The lost battle is the battle never fought,” says the retired metal worker, his eyes fixed in a steely glare – “and now we are fighting the battle of our lives.” Seated in his lounge adorned with prints on orange walls, the 75-year-old embodies the Greek trade unionist par excellence: Rallakis is general secretary of the federation of the country’s pensioners. His own pension has been cut by a third to €1,100 (£780) since Greece’s debt crisis began. But while some may view that as poor remuneration for 37 years of welding carriages in an Athenian factory, Rallakis counts himself lucky.

“It is enough just to cover the absolute essentials and is more than most,” he says on the day he led a protest march through Athens. “What we want is not only to retain the pensions we now have, but win back everything they stole from us.” Rallakis’s fighting spirit might have gone unnoticed if the row over pensions and the need for reform were not also at the heart of the prolonged standoff between Greece and the international lenders keeping the country afloat. In the five years that debt-stricken Athens has struggled to remain solvent – surviving on rescue loans issued by the EU, the ECB and the IMF – pensioners have disproportionately endured the austerity meted out in return for the bailouts.

Nearly 45% of Greece’s 2.5 million retirees now live on incomes of less than €665 a month – below the poverty line defined by the EU. Over half that number fell below the threshold at the start of the crisis in late 2009. Only a fraction of the 1.4 million people out of work receive unemployment benefits. A statement released by the office of Greece’s deputy prime minister, Yannis Dragasakis, recently declared: “After five years of recession and a ‘war-time’ cumulative loss of 25% of GDP, pensions have become the last social safety net preventing Greek society from completely falling apart. The elderly population is literally feeding the rest of the family.”

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In both Italy and Greece, pensions are a safety net for the entire society. Cutting pensions means either having to increase spending elsewhere or condemning your people to misery.

The Big Italian Pension Fight (Reuters)

Matteo Renzi seems to have won a tricky pension battle. But Italy’s prime minister has only skirmished with the real enemy. Italy has a toxic mix of a generous government-funded pension system, an ageing population and slow GDP growth. The distant future looks all right, thanks to the 2011 Fornero reform, which pushed up the retirement age for most current workers. However, that reform mostly spared existing pensioners, who are a burden on state finances and current workers. The European Commission estimates pension costs at 15.5% of Italian GDP in 2020, the second highest in the euro zone after Greece. In his first 14 months in office, Renzi had stayed away from proposing further reforms.

He was pulled in on April 30, when the constitutional court overturned one part of the Fornero package which did have immediate effect. The restoration of original payments for some high earners could have cost the state €18 billion. That number could have disrupted Rome’s relations with Brussels. It would bring the Italian fiscal deficit to 3.6% of GDP, too high for Italy to qualify for the fiscal leeway the Commission gives to firm reformers. However, Renzi has come back with a €2.2 billion “bonus” to some of the likely claimants. The move is sure to invite litigation, but the government has shrewdly pitched it as progressive and equitable, and so in keeping with the court’s demand. Besides, the court’s verdict was barely passed so a small settlement may be enough to appease the majority.

As for current costs, Renzi is in danger of moving in the wrong direction. He has suggested allowing more early retirements, to open up jobs for the country’s small army of unemployed young people. That shift could push up the state pension obligations even further. Universal pension cuts are always unpopular. But high pension expense drains government spending away from more productive areas, like education, while high worker and employer contributions discourage job creation and encourage black-market activity. Renzi presents himself as a fighter of vested interests and Italy’s gerontocracy. Pension reform is an opportunity to show he means what he says.

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Curious to blame it all on shortage, and none on speculation and foreign investors. So more houses are supposed to bring down prices. But is that what Cameron wants? Is it what the banks want?

Housing Crisis Will Halve Number Of Young Homeowners In Five Years (Guardian)

The number of young adults able to buy homes could fall nearly 50% within five years unless the government addresses the housing shortage, a report has claimed. Over the past decade, home ownership among 25-34-year-olds has dropped by a third, from 1.8m to 1.2m, and analysis by the housing charity Shelter published on Friday suggests that if current trends continue, the number of young homeowners will drop to about 616,600 by the end of this parliament. This would mean that less than 20% in that age group would have made it on to the property ladder, compared with nearly 60% a decade ago. In recent years, soaring house prices and problems with getting mortgages have pushed more young households into the private rented sector.

In 2004, just over 675,000 people aged 25-34 were tenants. However, by 2014, the number was 1.6m. As home ownership becomes increasingly difficult, Shelter said the number of renters could rise to 2.3m by 2020. In addition, it said, a “clipped-wing generation” of young adults living with their parents had emerged. The report followed government figures showing that the number of new homes built last year remained well below the level needed to meet demand. A total of 125,110 homes were built in England in 2014-15, up from 112,400 the previous year, but this is half the rate some experts say is needed. Those stuck in rented accommodation have seen rents rise by 4.6% over the past year, according to figures from letting agents Your Move and Reeds Rains.

The increase, the fastest recorded by the index since November 2010, pushed the average rent in England and Wales to a new high of £774 a month. In London, the average was up 7.8% year-on-year at £1,204. For homeowners and buyers, however, the mortgage price war is continuing to push rates down to record lows, with one leading lender unveiling the UK’s cheapest two-year fixed-rate home loan, priced at 1.07%. The new loan, from Yorkshire building society, trumps a 1.09% deal launched by Co-operative Bank earlier this month. However, the Yorkshire’s mortgage has a £1,369 product fee and is available only to customers able to stump up a hefty 35% deposit. Rachel Springall, at Moneyfacts.co.uk, said the new home loan was “the lowest ever fixed mortgage on record”, adding: “With the rate war ongoing, this is the perfect time for borrowers to secure a low fixed rate.”

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Funny. I see a whole different future for Saudi Arabia. Note the Export Land Model: “more than 25% of its total crude production — more than 10m barrels a day — is used domestically”

Saudi Kingdom Built On Oil Foresees Fossil Fuel Phase-Out This Century (FT)

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, could phase out the use of fossil fuels by the middle of this century, Ali al-Naimi, the kingdom’s oil minister, said on Thursday. The statement represents a stunning admission by a nation whose wealth, power and outsize influence in the world are predicated on its vast reserves of crude oil. Mr Naimi, whose comments on oil supply routinely move markets, told a conference in Paris on business and climate change: “In Saudi Arabia, we recognise that eventually, one of these days, we are not going to need fossil fuels. I don’t know when, in 2040, 2050 or thereafter.” For that reason, he said, the kingdom planned to become a “global power in solar and wind energy” and could start exporting electricity instead of fossil fuels in coming years.

Many in the energy industry would find his target of a 2040 phase-out too ambitious. Saudi Arabia is the largest consumer of petroleum in the Middle East, and more than 25% of its total crude production — more than 10m barrels a day — is used domestically. A 2012 Citigroup report said that if Saudi oil demand continued to grow at current rates, the country could be a net oil importer by 2030. But while acknowledging that Saudi Arabia would one day stop using oil, gas and coal, Mr Naimi said calls to leave the bulk of the world’s known fossil fuels in the ground to avoid risky levels of climate change needed to be put “in the back of our heads for a while”. “Can you afford that today?” he asked other conference speakers, including British economist, Nick Stern, author of a 2006 UK government report on the economics of climate change. “It may be a great objective but it is going to take a long time.”

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Barely breathing.

Bank of Japan Keeps Massive Monetary Stimulus Intact (CNBC)

The Bank of Japan on Friday kept its massive monetary stimulus program intact, as widely expected, and revised up its assessment of the economy, but analysts remain unconvinced the central bank is done with its easing campaign. In an 8-1 vote, the central bank pledged to increase base money at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($660 billion) through purchases of government bonds and risky assets. In a statement, the BOJ maintained that the world’s third-largest economy has continued to recover moderately.

“The (BOJ) economic assessment was more upbeat than at previous meetings. Policymakers no longer see a sluggish recovery in some areas of private consumption, but now judge consumer spending as ‘resilient’ without qualification,” Marcel Thieliant, Japan economist with Capital Economics, wrote in a note. The decision followed the latest growth data from Japan on Wednesday that showed the economy expanding an annualized 2.4% in the first quarter, better than expected and following the 1.5% annualized growth in the fourth quarter. “It came as no surprise that the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today, and the apparent strength in Q1 GDP suggests that additional easing in July is off the table,” said Thieliant.

Still, market watchers say further easing is inevitable down the line with the consumer inflation rate far from the BOJ’s target of 2%. Nationwide consumer inflation rate stood at 0.2% in March. Since embarking on the quantitative easing program in April 2013, the BOJ expanded the program just once, in October last year. “We continue to think that the BoJ will be forced to opt for additional easing into October as the board’s inflation rate forecast is turning out too optimistic. Triggers for additional easing moves will be downshifts in expected inflation rates and material softening of ex-energy CPI,” Hiromichi Shirakawa, managing director of Japan economics at Credit Suisse, wrote in a note.

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Crash of all crashes.

Dark Days For Western Australian Property Market (NewDaily)

Western Australia is facing serious problems. Plunging commodity prices are forcing iron ore mines to shut, mining companies to cut jobs, and tax revenue for the state coffers to plummet. But one of the big casualties in this painful process that hasn’t received a lot of attention is the WA property market. Many investors have been left high and dry by the drop in property values, which is having a flow-on effect in the capital. While property prices march forward in Sydney and Melbourne, it is a very different story on the ground in both Perth and the mining towns where many investment properties now lie empty.

Rental returns in mining towns have dropped by as much as 50%, according to the president of the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia, David Airey, with Karratha and Port Hedland among the biggest losers. Where they once commanded high rents and high sale prices, the towns are now struggling to attract either. “If you borrowed $1 million for a property in Karratha that used to be worth $1.2 million then you might be under water,” Mr Airey says. According to Richard Young, CEO of Perth-based Caporn Young Estate Agents, the situation is dire in some pockets. He recently heard of a house in Port Hedland that was bought a few years ago for $1.2 million and attracted a bid of $320,000 at auction recently. “That was the highest offer they could secure,” Mr Young says.

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What’s it worth to you?

Washington Asks Athens To Back Anti-Russia Sanctions (RT)

Greece has revealed it’s been asked by the US to prolong anti-Russia sanctions. However, Athens stressed Russia is a strategic ally and the ‘sanction war’ is causing it an estimated loss of €4 billion a year. “I was asked to support the prolongation of the sanctions, particularly in connection with Crimea. I explained the Ukrainian issue was very sensitive for Greece as some 300,000 Greeks live in Mariupol and its neighborhood, and they feel safe next to the Orthodox Church, ” Defense Minister Panos Kammenos is cited as saying on the Ministry of National Defense website on Wednesday. Russia is Greece’s ally and a friendly country, our countries have “unbreakable ties” of common religion, and we have economic ties as well, the Minister told Deputy US Defense Secretary Christine Wormuth in Washington.

Greece has lost more than €4 billion ($4.5 billion) as a result of the anti-Russia sanctions, he added. “Annually about 1.5 million Russian tourists visit Greece. We export agricultural products to Russia. I explained that the European Union does not reimburse losses to Greek farmers on these issues,” Kammenos said. Russia and Greece have been improving economic cooperation lately; last month Moscow invited Athens to become the sixth member of the BRICS New Development Bank. Greece said it was interested in the offer. The Greek government agreed a number of strategic deals with Russia during Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ visit to Moscow in April, including participation in the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project that will deliver Russian gas to Europe via Greece.

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Desperate measures.

Ukraine Laws Ban Sympathy For Communism, Honor Nazi Collaborators (Guardian)

Two new laws that ban communist symbols while honouring nationalist groups that collaborated with the Nazis have come into effect in Ukraine, raising concerns that Kiev could be stifling free speech and further fragmenting the war-torn country in the rush to break ties with its Soviet past. The first law “on the condemnation of the communist and Nazi totalitarian regimes” forbids both Soviet and Nazi symbols, making something as trivial as selling a USSR souvenir, or singing the Soviet national hymn or the Internationale, punishable by up to five years in prison for an individual and up to 10 years in prison for members of an organisation. It also makes it a criminal offence to deny the “criminal character of the communist totalitarian regime of 1917-1991 in Ukraine” in the media or elsewhere.

The second law recognises controversial nationalist groups – including the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) – as “independence fighters” and makes it a criminal offence to question the legitimacy of their actions. While these two groups at different times fought both Soviet and German forces, they also collaborated with the Nazis and took part in ethnic cleansing. One of the authors of the law is the son of UPA leader Roman Shukhevych. Supporters of the laws say they are a way to build a national identity and condemn totalitarianism, but the legislation has been roundly condemned by academics and human rights organisations, as well as Ukrainian activists. While other eastern European countries have also banned communist symbols, Ukraine’s law is more wide-reaching than previous measures.

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“..the mess that Obama’s people have created in Ukraine by their coup and subsequent ethnic-cleansing to eliminate the residents of Donbass, will take decades, if ever, to repair..”

Washington Throws in the Towel on Ukraine, Shifts to ‘Plan B’ (Sputnik)

International media have failed to highlight the ultimate failure of Washington’s policy in Ukraine, investigative historian Eric Zuesse emphasized, referring to remarks by US Secretary of State John Kerry in response to Petro Poroshenko’s oath to retake Crimea and the Donetsk Airport. “I have not had a chance – I have not read the speech. I haven’t seen any context. I have simply heard about it in the course of today [which would be shocking if true]. But if indeed President Poroshenko is advocating an engagement in a forceful effort at this time, we would strongly urge him to think twice not to engage in that kind of activity, that that would put Minsk in serious jeopardy. And we would be very, very concerned about what the consequences of that kind of action at this time may be,” John Kerry said during a press conference in Sochi, as cited by the historian.

Eric Zuesse stressed that the remark has clearly demonstrated that the Obama administration has thrown in the towel on Washington’s original plan for Ukraine, which was purportedly aimed at an all-out military invasion of the eastern regions. Victoria Nuland, who was responsible for the plan since the very beginning, is now sidelined, the expert underscored. According to Eric Zuesse, Obama has sent a clear message through Kerry to Ukrainian President Poroshenko, and indirectly to Nuland’s protégé Prime Minister Yatsenyuk as well as to outright Nazi Dmytro Yarosh, stating: “we’ll back you only as long as you accept that you have failed our military expectations and that we will be stricter with you in the future regarding how you spend our military money.”

So far, the Obama administration has shifted the goalposts and jumped at the opportunity to join the Normandy talks on Ukraine, the expert noted. “Merkel and Hollande thus won. Putin had decidedly won. Obama and the Nazis he had empowered in Ukraine have now, clearly, been defeated,” Eric Zuesse stressed. “But the mess that Obama’s people have created in Ukraine by their coup and subsequent ethnic-cleansing to eliminate the residents of Donbass, will take decades, if ever, to repair,” the expert added bitterly.

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May 082015
 
 May 8, 2015  Posted by at 11:11 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  Comments Off on Debt Rattle May 8 2015


Gottscho-Schleisner New York City views. Looking down South Street 1933

Why Are Stock Prices So High? Borrowed Money (MarketWatch)
Break Up Big Banks (Senator Bernie Sanders)
Violent Bond Moves Signal Tectonic Shifts In Global Markets (AEP)
Bond Yields, Not Political Fallout, Should Be Worrying Us Now (Independent)
Rising European Yields Are A Worry For US Stocks (CNBC)
Stocks May Find It Tough To Wiggle Out Of The Bond-Market Mess (MarketWatch)
The Great German Government Bond Sell-Off Mystery (Guardian)
98% Of Q1 US Consumer Credit Was Used For Student And Car Loans (Zero Hedge)
China Exports, Imports Fall Sharply In April (CNBC)
Varoufakis Says Greece Ready to Take EU Impasse Down to the Wire (Bloomberg)
Greece To Rehire Cleaners, School Guards Laid Off Under Austerity (Kath.)
Five Years On, Doctor and Patient Split on Greek Cure (WSJ)
Greece’s Biggest Brain Drain Since The Death Of Socrates (MarketWatch)
Greek Bank Bailout Fund CEO To Stand Trial, Asked To Resign (Kathimerini)
Greece and Britain Test the Union (Kathimerini)
Greece Sees Massive Increase In Refugees Arriving By Boat (Guardian)
Hedge Funds Aren’t Casino Capitalists. They’re Parasite Capitalists (Ind.)
The British Press Has Lost It (Politico)
Angela Merkel Under Pressure To Reveal All About US Spying Agreement (Guardian)
Chinese Warships To Join Russian Navy Drill In Black Sea, Mediterranean (RT)
Modern Slavery In Australia: Labour Exploitation Rife In Agriculture (RT)
Nepal Quake Victims’ Families Not Allowed To Leave Qatar For Funerals (Ind.)
How Climate Science Denial Affects The Scientific Community (PhysOrg)

“Despite all the claims that U.S. companies are awash with cash and have “never had it so good,”[..] in reality Corporate America has “overspent” in recent years to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.”

Why Are Stock Prices So High? Borrowed Money (MarketWatch)

Why are stock prices so high? Follow the borrowed money Maybe the bears and cynics and general party-poopers are all wrong. Maybe the stock market these days isn’t a giant Ponzi scheme. Maybe it’s a shell game. The cheerleaders on the Street of Shame won’t tell you this, but lurking behind the phenomenon of today’s skyrocketing stock prices is a surge in corporate borrowing. Companies have been borrowing money with both fists, and spend the money to buy back shares and in the process drive up their share prices. But what the stock market giveth, the bond market taketh away.

Despite all the claims that U.S. companies are awash with cash and have “never had it so good,” an analysis by investment bank SG Securities calculates that in reality Corporate America has “overspent” in recent years to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. Over the past five years, equity prices have almost doubled — but so has the net debt of nonfinancial companies. Both have outstripped a 60% rise in profits. Or, to put it another way, since March 2009, the cash pile of non-financial U.S. corporations has risen by $570 billion, but debt has risen by $1.6 trillion. Indeed over the past year net debt has risen about 20%,SG estimates — while gross cash flows have risen a more modest 4%. Indeed, “it is also those companies with the weakest sales growth that are buying back the most,” warns SG quantitative strategist Andrew Lapthorne in a new report for clients.

And that’s not all. The “net debt” figures for most of the stock market are even worse than many will tell you, for the simple reason that the overall figure is skewed by a handful of companies with big cash piles — such as Apple AAPL, +1.08% . When you remove those from the equation, the picture for the rest of the pack looks a lot worse. Many of those cash piles are sitting offshore, untaxed or lightly taxed. Net of tax, the levels are lower. And anyone who tries to give you comfort by pointing out that net debt levels aren’t too bad when compared to asset prices needs to offer a big caveat. Such ratios always look good during a boom, because asset prices get inflated. If or when the tide turns, the asset prices can tumble — but the value of the debt, alas, sticks around at its previous level.

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“The function of banking should be to provide affordable loans to businesses to create jobs. The function of banking should be to provide affordable loans to Americans to purchase homes and cars. Wall Street cannot be an island unto itself..”

Break Up Big Banks (Senator Bernie Sanders)

We don’t hear it discussed much in the media, but the reality is that the middle class of this country, once the envy of the world, is collapsing, 45 million Americans are living in poverty, and the gap between the rich and everyone else is growing wider and wider. Despite a huge increase in technology and productivity, median family income is almost $5,000 lower today than it was in 1999. There are 45 million people living in poverty and we have the highest rate of childhood poverty of any major country on earth. Half of the American people have less than $10,000 in savings and have no idea how they will retire with dignity. Real unemployment is not 5.5% – it’s close to 11%. Today, 99% of all new income goes to the top 1%.

During the last two years, the 14 wealthiest Americans saw their wealth increase by $157 billion, which is more wealth than is owned by the bottom 130 million Americans. In the midst of all this grotesque level of income and wealth inequality comes Wall Street.
As we all know, it was the greed, recklessness and illegal behavior on Wall Street six years ago that drove this country into the worst recession since the Great Depression. Millions of Americans lost their jobs, homes, life savings and ability to send their kids to college. The middle class is still suffering from the horrendous damage huge financial institutions and insurance companies did to this country in 2008. It seems like almost every day we read about one giant financial institution after another being fined or reaching settlements for their reckless, unfair, and deceptive activities.

In fact, since 2009, huge financial institutions have paid $176 billion in fines and settlement payments for fraudulent and unscrupulous activities. It should make every American very nervous that in this weak regulatory environment, the financial supervisors in this country and around the world are still able to uncover an enormous amount of fraud on Wall Street to this day. I fear very much that the financial system is even more fragile than many people may perceive. This huge issue cannot be swept under the rug. It has got to be addressed. Although I voted for Dodd-Frank, I did so knowing it was a modest piece of legislation. Dodd-Frank did not end much of the casino-style gambling on Wall Street. In fact, much of this reckless activity is still going on today. Yet, today, three out of the four financial institutions in this country (JP Morgan, BoA, and Wells Fargo) are 80% larger today than they were on September 30, 2007, a year before the taxpayers of this country bailed them out. 80%!

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“It is absolute pandemonium in the fixed income markets..”

Violent Bond Moves Signal Tectonic Shifts In Global Markets (AEP)

A wave of turmoil is sweeping through sovereign bond markets, setting off the most dramatic gyrations seen in recent years and threatening to spill over into over-heated equity markets. Yields on German 10-year Bunds spiked violently by almost 20 basis points to 0.78pc in early trading on Thursday as funds scrambled to unwind the so-called “QE trade” in Europe, with powerful ripple effects reaching Japan, Australia, Brazil and even US Treasuries. “It is absolute pandemonium in the fixed income markets,” said Andrew Roberts at RBS. “Everybody has been trying to get out of long-duration positions at the same time but the door is getting smaller.” German yields fell back just as fast to 0.58pc later, as bargain-hunters came back into the European debt markets, but are still unrecognisable from the historic lows of 0.07pc two weeks ago.

Ructions of this magnitude are extremely rare in government bond markets. Investors are nursing almost half a trillion dollars in paper losses in two weeks, a staggering sum in what is supposed to be a rock-solid repository for institutional investors. French, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds have all been sold off sharply over the past two weeks, obliterating the gains in yield compression since the European Central Bank unveiled a bond purchase programme of €60bn a month in January. “Anything over-populated is being cleared out. People got too exuberant and they’re coming back to reality,” said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. Peter Schaffrik, at RBC Capital Markets, said rising yields can be a healthy development if the global economy is picking up speed. It is a different matter if they suddenly jump at a time of sluggish growth and disappointing figures in the US.

“It is potentially dangerous. What worries me is that we don’t have a good macro-economic back-drop driving yields higher. We don’t see a reflationary recovery,” he said. Investors already face a changed world from early April, when deflation was still on everybody’s lips and Mexico was able to sell €1.5bn of 100-year bonds at a rate of 4.2pc. The worm turned two weeks later when bond king Bill Gross declared that Bunds had become unhinged and were the “short of a lifetime”, quickly followed by warnings from Warren Buffett that bonds were “very overvalued”. The sharp moves have been exacerbated by a lack of liquidity as traditional dealers withdraw from the market to comply with stricter rules. The Institute of International Finance said this week that thin liquidity had become the top issue in talks with central banks and regulators.

It said the new rules amounted to a “dramatic revolution” that had re-engineered the global financial system and pushed risk out into the shadows, storing up outcomes that are likely to be “pretty painful and certainly unknowable”.

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“..there is a timebomb ticking away in the bond markets, with the unwinding of QE, particularly in Europe, being more difficult and destructive than most people now appreciate.”

Bond Yields, Not Political Fallout, Should Be Worrying Us Now (Independent)

I am worrying about something. No, not what will happen in the UK in the next few days, though maybe that should be a worry. It’s that there is a timebomb ticking away in the bond markets, with the unwinding of QE, particularly in Europe, being more difficult and destructive than most people now appreciate. There are, as is usual after any long bull equity run, quite a few warnings around of a forthcoming crash in share prices, and there is in any case a good chance of a correction during the summer. But what has been happening in the bond markets is rather different. Bond prices are not as interesting as share prices: a 10-basis point move in 10-year German bund yields makes a worse headline than a 3% rise in the share price of HSBC when it says it may move its headquarters out of London.

But bund yields have an impact on the cost of mortgages across the eurozone (and to some extent here), whereas the price of HSBC shares really has not that much effect on anything. The easiest way to get one’s mind round what is happening is to start with 10-year government bond yields. US treasuries yielded 2.2% and UK gilts just under 2%. Many of us think these are far too low; what is inflation going to be over the next 10 years? Say 2%. So an investor would get no real reward at all. But while these are far too low, they are not ridiculously low. For that you look at German bunds. Yesterday they yielded just over 0.5%. At that level you are bound to lose money and would be far better with just about anything else: equities obviously, or maybe buying a flat in Berlin or even Athens, the latter being rather cheap right now.

Actually bunds yielding 0.5% represent some return to sanity compared with yields in the middle of last month. As you can see from the red line in the top graph, yields dipped to 0.1% for a short period. If you were nutty enough to buy at that level you would have lost quite a lot of money by now. You could argue that German yields make sense if you think the country will dump the euro and return to the deutschmark, for investors would make a currency gain. But that is some way off and in any case the argument would not apply to French or Italian bonds, yielding 0.9% and 1.9% respectively. So ask yourself this: which country is more likely to be able to pay its debt back in 10 years’ time, Italy or the US? Not many people would say Italy. Yet Italian yields are lower than US ones. This cannot be right. So why is this happening?

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“U.S. stocks will have to sing for their supper..”

Rising European Yields Are A Worry For US Stocks (CNBC)

Over the past three weeks, the yield on the 10-year German bund has more than tripled, albeit from incredibly low levels. And that’s sending up warning signs for investors, particularly in U.S. equities. “Low interest rates have supported global equity prices during a period of very slow macro growth,” Convergex chief strategist Nicholas Colas wrote in a note Wednesday to clients. “To hold stock prices constant—or see them rise—during a period of rising rates, you need to see tangible signs of economic growth and rising corporate earnings.” The basic issue is that low bond yields support rich stock valuations, as they reduce the attractiveness of alternatives to risk assets. But U.S. yields have risen alongside European ones lately, in a move than investors have long been anticipating. If rates continues to surge, stocks will need to show some serious earnings growth.

“U.S. stocks will have to sing for their supper,” Colas wrote. “It can be a nice tune about lower interest rates, sung in the European language of your choice. Or, it can be a robust march with verses promising a vigorous domestic economy.” Others also have some concerns. Technical analyst Todd Gordon sees the recent yield move as giving the Federal Reserve license to hike rates—which could be an issue for stocks. “Why are commodities rallying? Why are bonds selling off? Why is the dollar selling off? Everything from an intermarket point of view points to inflation. … So I wonder if the Fed’s going to be move sooner rather than later,” Gordon said. “I think that may be trouble for equities if we are in fact going to get a rate hike.” Forecasting inflation is a major departure from the market’s recent milieu: The big modern concern has been disinflation or deflation, rather than inflation.

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““The Fed are fully aware that ultra-low interest rates have been a huge factor behind U.S. equities hitting all-time highs..”

Stocks May Find It Tough To Wiggle Out Of The Bond-Market Mess (MarketWatch)

Look at it this way — someday, you’ll have some great financial war stories to tell. “The latter part of 2014 and the dawn of 2015 will probably represent one of those episodes in financial history when the fixed-income markets were gripped by a confluence of factors that is unlikely to be repeated over the next hundred years,” said Jefferies’s chief equity strategist, Sean Darby. There’s fodder for your future tales of battles past this morning, as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s assets-are-bubbly comments continue to rattle global markets, which have already been duly freaked out by plummeting global bonds. She’s hit us at a tough time. While some shout, “Off with her head!”, over at IG, analyst David Madden says Yellen was probably just trying to ready investors for an eventual hike.

“The Fed are fully aware that ultra-low interest rates have been a huge factor behind U.S. equities hitting all-time highs this year, and the last thing the U.S. central bank wants is a crash when rates start to rise,” he says. Or maybe she and the rest of her Fed minions are as confused as the rest of us. That’s the theory from Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, who notes that Fed officials have been pretty silent since the last meeting. He says they’re probably struggling to work backups in bond yields and oil prices into their policy-making decisions. Hang on until summer, he says, when the Fed will get less confused and less confusing.

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“..the market in German government debt is meant to be deep, liquid and populated by grown-ups.”

The Great German Government Bond Sell-Off Mystery (Guardian)

It’s a head-scratcher. Why have investors suddenly decided to dump German government bonds? The sell-off, seemingly on no news, has been extraordinary, affecting the entire European bond market. Yields, which move inversely to the price of the bond, briefly hit 0.8% on 10-year German debt on Thursday. Then they fell to 0.57%, but even that represents a surge from 0.1% only a few weeks ago. A glib explanation is to say that the ultra-low yields were wrong in the first place. Deflation is a worry, not a probability, so isn’t lending to any government for a decade for a near-zero return a surefire way to destroy your capital? But that doesn’t explain the suddenness of the move: the market in German government debt is meant to be deep, liquid and populated by grown-ups.

Greece doesn’t offer a plausible answer. Grexit – if anything – seems more likely than it did a month ago, in which case you’d expect a rush into German debt. “Supply indigestion,” ran another idea – in other words, lots of European governments issuing bonds, trying to take advantage of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying programme. Possibly. But what will happen when bond yields start to rise for reasons that are easier to explain – for example, a return of modest inflation and higher interest rates. On the evidence of Thursday’s brief wobble in stock markets, it won’t be pretty for share prices.

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A sign of bankruptcy.

98% Of Q1 Consumer Credit Was Used For Student And Car Loans (Zero Hedge)

By now everyone realizes that Q1 will be the second consecutive first quarter to see a negative GDP print. Wall Street’s weathermen formerly known as “economists” have been quick to scapegoat harsh weather once again for this unprecedented “non-recessionary” contraction in the US economy, however what the actual reason for the drop is irrelevant for this specific post; what is relevant is that even in a quarter in which US GDP is set to decline consumer credit, according to the latest update from the Federal Reserve, increased by just over $45 billion. But how is it possible that with such a massive expansion in household credit there was no actual benefit to the underlying economy? Simple: 98% of the credit lent out in the first quarter, or $44.3 billion, went to student and car loans!

The amount of credit that actually made it into the broader, consumer economy, i.e., credit card or revolving credit: a negative $600 million, despite a jump in revolving credit in March, when it rose by $4.4 billion to $889.4 billion. So $889.4 billion in credit card debt: as a reminder this is the key credit amount that has to keep growing for consumers to telegraph optimism about their wages, jobs, and generally, the economy. The problem is that as of Q1, this amount was lower than both car debt, at $972.4 billion, and certainly student debt, which in Q1 rose by another $30 billion to a record $1.355 trillion! In other words, virtually every dollar lent out in Q1 went to such dead-end uses as bailed out General Motors and student loans keeping an entire generation away from the harsh reality of the labor market.

But the most troubling discovery in Q1 is that as we reported last month, America’s consumer banks, i.e. depositor institutions, have shut down the lending spigot after seeing a jump in consumer bank lending in 2014. In fact, in the first three months of 2015, depository institutions saw a $32 billion decline in the total amount of credit lent out. So who did lend? Why the US government of course, which was the source of over $39 billion in consumer credit, or the vast bulk, lent out in the first quarter. In other words, the US government lends out cash, so US consumers can either buy cars from Government Motors in one truly epic circle jerk, or stay in the safe, ivory tower confines of college, and avoid the reality of what is really going on with the US economy.

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Exports down 15% in March, another 6.4% in April. Where oh where is the 7% growth going to come from?

China Exports, Imports Fall Sharply In April (CNBC)

China’s exports and imports tumbled in April, dashing hopes of a seasonal rebound and underscoring concerns over the soggy trade picture in the world’s second biggest economy. Exports fell 6.4% in April from the year-ago period, coming in worse than the 2.4% rise forecast in a Reuters poll and following a 15% plunge in March. Imports dived 16.2% on year, also missing the 12% expected drop and after falling 12.7% in March. This brought the trade surplus for the month to $34.13 billion, compared with the $39.45 billion forecast and March’s print of $30.8 billion. The news dampened prospects for Australia, one of the mainland’s major trading partners, and the Australian dollar fell to fresh session lows on the news, easing to $0.7859.

Markets had been hoping April’s trade numbers will rebound from the depressed levels in February and March blamed on the Lunar New Year holiday. “This [Lunar New Year] effect should have fully dissipated last month, so it is slightly surprising that export growth remained in negative territory,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist with Capital Economics, in a note. “The trade data suggest that both foreign and domestic demand has softened going into the second quarter.” Weak external and domestic demand has been a key factor behind the slowing Chinese economy, which Beijing expects will grow around 7% this year.

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Every day this lasts hurts Brussels more.

Varoufakis Says Greece Ready to Take EU Impasse Down to the Wire (Bloomberg)

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his government is prepared to go “down to the wire” in talks with its creditors as policy makers signal they’re losing patience with the country after months of brinkmanship. Varoufakis, who denies he’s been sidelined by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in the negotiations, said he expects an agreement in the next two weeks, though one is unlikely to be announced when euro-area finance chiefs meet on Monday. Greece has less than a week to prove to the European Central Bank that it’s serious about reaching an agreement with international lenders. Failure to make progress in bailout talks or repay about €745 million owed to the IMF on May 12 may prompt the imposition of tighter liquidity rules on its banks.

“Europe works in glacial ways and eventually does the right thing after trying all alternatives,” Varoufakis, 54, told BBC World on Thursday. “So we probably won’t have an agreement on Monday, but certainly we’re going to have an agreement in the next couple of weeks or so.” More than 100 days of talks between Europe’s most-indebted state and its creditors have failed to produce an agreement on the terms attached to the country’s €240 billion bailout. The standoff between Greece’s governing coalition and euro-area member states has led to an unprecedented flight of deposits from Greek banks and renewed concern over the country’s future in the single currency.

“To speak of Greek exit now is profoundly anti-European because it will begin a process of fragmentation in Europe that will actually be very detrimental to Britain, let alone Greece and Europe,” said Varoufakis. “The solution is to agree on a debt sustainability analysis and a fiscal consolidation plan that makes sense, unlike the ones in the past.” Varoufakis said that while there’s convergence between the two sides, the Greek government won’t bow to creditors’ demands for more austerity. “This cycle of debt deflation and insincerity has to end,” he said in the BBC interview. “We are prepared to go all the way down to the wire.”

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Good on them.

Greece To Rehire Cleaners, School Guards Laid Off Under Austerity (Kath.)

Greece’s parliament passed a law on Thursday paving the way for the government to rehire about 4,000 public sector workers who were laid off or earmarked for dismissal under austerity cuts imposed by international creditors. The move made good on a campaign promise by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who rode a wave of public anger against austerity measures to win January elections, and does not explicitly violate the terms of the EU/IMF bailout which allows Greece to hire one public employee for every five who leave. But the plan to rehire school guards, cleaning ladies and civil servants appeared to go against the spirit of the layoff scheme in the bailout, which says the firings were aimed at rejuvenating the public administration by bringing in new, motivated workers and ending the legacy of patronage hiring.

“This is an unorganised, irresponsible settlement of your party’s pre-election pledges,» opposition lawmaker Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the former administrative reforms minister who sacked many of those being rehired, told parliament. The previous government had intended for hirings this year to be focused mainly on the health and education sectors. Tsipras received a jubilant group of about 50 cleaning ladies – who protested against their dismissal outside the finance ministry for months – at his office on Thursday. “Even the Chancellor, in a meeting that we had and without me bringing it up, referred to how unfair what the previous government did to you was,” Tsipras told the group, in an apparent reference to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. “Your fight was known abroad because it was a fair fight.”

An official at the administrative reforms ministry said the reinstatement of the workers would have an annual cost of €33.5 million that was already included in the country’s 2015 budget plan approved with last year. The 3,928 workers to be rehired include 2,100 who were fired outright and another 1,900 in a so-called labour reserve where workers received partial salaries while they waited to see if they would be moved into new jobs. The state was already paying salaries for about 1,000 school guards in the reserve, limiting costs involved in their hiring, the ministry official said. Greece has pledged not to make unilateral actions reversing bailout reforms it opposes while talks with its international lenders continue.

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“Syriza ministers and lawmakers believe they have a duty to Greece and Europe to fight, even if the odds are against them.”

Five Years On, Doctor and Patient Split on Greek Cure (WSJ)

Greece and its creditors, deadlocked over fresh financing, agree on at least one thing about the country’s mammoth bailout, launched five years ago this month: It hasn’t worked as hoped. But Athens and its lenders—the eurozone and the IMF—disagree diametrically on why the bailout program has flopped. This dispute about the past five years helps explain why the players so often seem to be talking past each other today, and why reaching agreement on further aid is proving so hard. Lenders, led by Germany, believe that the bailout’s blueprint was and remains correct, but that Greece failed to follow it. Rapid deficit-cutting was the only way to cure Greece’s debt problem. The rollback of stifling regulation and unaffordable social benefits and an injection of free-market competition were unavoidable if Greece was to grow sustainably.

German leaders such as Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble see Greece as the patient that didn’t take its pills, unlike others in the same hospital, such as Portugal and Ireland, who swallowed the same medicine and recovered. To many Greeks, however, the eurozone seems more like the psychiatric ward in the Ken Kesey novel “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest,” where a domineering “Big Nurse” controls the inmates through punishment and humiliation. In this view, Greece under Syriza is Europe’s Randle McMurphy, the rebel inmate who rattles Big Nurse Merkel’s regimen with constant provocations, encouraging others to stand up for themselves, too. Syriza ministers and lawmakers believe they have a duty to Greece and Europe to fight, even if the odds are against them.

There is little doubt that major economic overhauls were overdue in Greece, and that painful fiscal austerity was unavoidable. Athens had lost control of its budget and nobody was prepared to finance its deficits. But most economists, and some officials on the creditors’ side, say the bailout program always suffered from at least three design flaws. Firstly, the scale and speed of austerity were unique, and proved to be an overdose, many economists say. Greek spending cuts and tax-revenue measures totaled over 30% of gross domestic product in 2010-14, according to Greek and EU data. That 30%-of-GDP austerity effort improved Greece’s primary budget balance, excluding debt interest, but only by 11 percentage points of GDP.

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Still, many, like Varoufakis, have returned recently.

Greece’s Biggest Brain Drain Since The Death Of Socrates (MarketWatch)

Ancient Greece was once a magnet for the world’s intellectual elite. Scholarly work out of Athens contributed to everything from logic and philosophy to the politics that formed the basis of modern civilization. But as the Hellenic Republic struggles to strike an agreement to repay more than €300 billion it owes international creditors, it is also facing the depletion of its most important asset: human capital. A devastating brain drain is luring away the best and brightest of Greece’s workforce, several reports showed, with estimates varying between 180,000 and 200,000 well-educated citizens leaving the cash-strapped nation. At that rate, the exodus translates to about 10% of the country’s total university-educated workforce, said Lois Lambrinidis, a professor of economic geography at the University of Macedonia.

On a macro level, this movement is a clear brain drain, said Nicholas Alexiou, a sociology professor at CUNY’s Queens College who studies Greek immigration patterns. What differentiates a brain drain from other types of migrant waves is the high percentage of skilled and educated people who leave the country, Alexiou said. In other words, Greece is losing its “youngest, best and brightest,” as a European University Institute study dated March 2014 noted. According to the study, of those who have left 88% hold a university degree, and of those, over 60% have a master’s degree, while 11% hold a Ph.D. According to the EUI report, 79% of those who left Greece during the crisis were actually employed but felt that there was “no future” in the country (50%) or no professional opportunities (25%).

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It takes time to fight a corruption so deeply entrenched.

Greek Bank Bailout Fund CEO To Stand Trial, Asked To Resign (Kathimerini)

Greece’s government late Thursday asked the chief executive of its bank bailout fund to resign, after prosecutors ordered her to stand trial for her role in bad loans issued by defunct state lender Hellenic Postbank. Anastasia Sakellariou has been chief executive of the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) since February 2013. She was charged last year with breach of trust for restructuring loans issued by the state lender from 2008 to 2012 and was told to stand trial on Wednesday, according to court officials. Sakellariou’s resignation means the fund is now headless after its chairman, Christos Sclavounis, stepped down in March. The new leftist government of Alexis Tsipras has not yet replaced him.

“(The government) asked Mrs. Sakellariou today to hand in her resignation,” a government official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. The HFSF, funded from Greece’s €240 billion bailout by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, has recapitalised the country’s banking sector and also used its funds to wind down non-viable lenders. The HFSF has said that, in 2012, Sakellariou was a member of a Hellenic Postbank committee that handled the restructuring of two loans. HFSF has remaining funds of €10.9 billion in European Financial Stability Fund bonds, which were handed over to the European Stability Mechanism.

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Brexit, Grexit, bring it on sooner rather than later.

Greece and Britain Test the Union (Kathimerini)

Two very different countries are challenging the European Union’s cohesion and the outcome of this test will determine the future of the greatest experiment in democracy that the world has known. Britain, a former superpower, once said that the sun never set on its imperial domain, and it is still the EU’s second-largest economy; Greece, which has been plagued by bankruptcies since its independence, is the Union’s most troubled economy. Both present problems that demand a radical shift in the way that the EU has operated over the past decades, in order to protect all that it has achieved.

Whereas Greece’s need for its partners’ support stems from the country’s inability to reform its economy, public administration and political system so as to be a viable competitor in the global economy, Britain is putting similar pressure on the EU’s cohesion in the belief that it has to insulate itself from its partners, to safeguard what it considers its special advantages. The two countries’ political systems and economies are vastly different, as is their geopolitical stature. Greece has been an enthusiastic member of the EU since it joined in 1981 and is part of its inner sanctum, the eurozone. Britain has always been at pains to opt out from too much union, avoiding the euro and abstaining from Greece’s bailout.

During the crisis, Greece has benefited from the support (with painful strings attached) of its partners, while Britain has gained enormously – from money fleeing the European periphery for what is seen as the safe haven of Britain, and from the Bank of England’s independence from the austerity dogma imposed on the rest of the EU. Both Greece and Britain have contributed to the EU in their own unique way, and each one’s relationship with the rest of the Union also shows the great tension at the heart of every association: Even as every member needs the advantages provided by the group, each fears being absorbed by the others, to the extent that it loses its independence, its special characteristics and the freedom to exploit its differences to its own advantage. Greece cannot function without financial support, yet it also cannot accept the loss of independence that this entails.

Britain, which has gained much from being “in and out” of the Union, is in danger of getting too far from the center of gravity. But a total break will leave it on its own, unable to influence EU policy. In the EU the great question today is whether countries can place the common good above their national interest. The Greek elections in January intensified the push and pull between the country and its partners, with results that are still unpredictable. Whatever the outcome of Thursday’s election, Britain, too, will test the limits of membership and the Union’s cohesion. All players should remember two simple facts: Thanks to ever closer union, Europe has enjoyed 70 years of unprecedented peace and prosperity; pulling too hard can break any bond.

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“In the first four months of the year, at least 21,745 migrants arrived in Greece by boat, compared with 33,951 in all of 2014..”

Greece Sees Massive Increase In Refugees Arriving By Boat (Guardian)

The scale of mass migration across the Mediterranean has been revealed by new figures showing that record numbers of migrants are now arriving by boat in Greece as well as Italy. Just four months into the year, the number of arrivals in Greece is already two-thirds as high as last year’s total, highlighting the volume of migration in not just the central Mediterranean, between Libya and Italy, but also at its eastern fringes. Even as the UN security council mulls using military force against smugglers in Libya, the figures suggest migrants are increasingly using other routes to break into Fortress Europe. In the first four months of the year, at least 21,745 migrants arrived in Greece by boat, compared with 33,951 in all of 2014, according to figures from the International Organisation for Migration, and compiled by the Greek coastguard.

The numbers are even higher than estimates released earlier in the year, and show almost as many migrants are arriving in Greece as in Italy. At least 26,228 have reached Italy since the start of 2015, fractionally down on last year’s equivalent level. Aid workers in the Greek islands, where most migrants travelling by sea arrive from Turkey, say the rises are all the more surprising because the peak smuggling season has not yet started. Stathis Kyroussis, head of mission in Greece for Médecins sans Frontières, which provides support to migrants, said: “It’s not just an increase, it’s an explosive increase. It’s already five times up on last year. In one island – the biggest, Kos – last year we had 72 entries in all of April. This year we had 2,110. In Leros last April we had zero. This year we had 900.”

Kyroussis said the increase in arrivals in Greece seemed to have been caused in part by a rise in Syrians making the trip. “There is a higher percentage of Syrians travelling to the Greek islands: last year it was 60%, this year it is 80%,” said Kyroussis. “So part of the increase is a change in the route of the Syrians. Instead of Italy, they’re coming through Greece.” This analysis appears to be corroborated by further IOM statistics, which show that Syrians account for only 8% of arrivals in Italy this year, compared with 25% in 2014. Theories for the rise include the civil war in Libya, which may have put Syrians off travelling there; and the worsening situation in Syria, which has persuaded many Syrian refugees in Turkey that there is no longer point in waiting for Syria’s chaos to be resolved.

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“It might not matter so much if what these funds did was socially useful. But it is not.”

Hedge Funds Aren’t Casino Capitalists. They’re Parasite Capitalists (Ind.)

Adair Turner coined a neat phrase for many of the banking industry’s activities during the financial crisis. In a biting critique he opined that they were “socially useless”. He was right. But it’s not just banking at which his criticism could be aimed. Consider the bastard child of investment banking and asset management: the hedge fund industry. It is a place where a portion of the elite of both have found homes. Multiple homes, in fact, funded by salary packages which make even the dizzying rewards on offer at the height of the big investment banks’ insanity look modest. According to a list published by Institutional Investor’s Alpha magazine, the top 25 collectively gorged upon $11.62bn (£7.6bn) in 2014.

Their bumper paydays came in a year when the industry produced returns averaging in the low single digits, even though the S&P 500 stock market index – the most reliable US benchmark – would have produced nearly 14% in dollar terms had you tracked it. The New York Times reports that just half of the top 10 earners managed to beat it. These massive rewards for mediocre performance were in part due to the industry’s structure: typically managers skim 2% of their investors’ funds every year and 20% of their profits. So when they do well the rewards are staggering. When they do less well the rewards are staggering. Just a bit less staggering.

It might not matter so much if what these funds did was socially useful. But it is not. It is true that some provide a certain Darwinian screening process by attacking under-performing companies and their complacent boards. Elliott Advisors’ assault on Alliance Trust is an example that may ultimately prove to be of benefit to a legion of small investors. However, for every Alliance Trust there is an ABN Amro. Activist funds delivered the Dutch bank to a consortium made up of Royal Bank of Scotland, Fortis and Banco Santander in a transaction which left only the latter unscathed and the taxpayers of three countries to pick up the pieces.

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Propaganda.

The British Press Has Lost It (Politico)

Fasten your seatbelt: it’s going to be a bumpy ride. With the two major parties, Conservative and Labour, neck and neck in the polls; and two new insurrectionary forces, UKIP and the Scottish National Party, set to disrupt the two-and-a-half party system that’s dominated British politics for 40 years, Thursday’s election night is going to be fought constituency by constituency, sometimes recount by recount. There will be unexpected triumphs, unforeseen disasters (“Were you up for the moment when so-and-so lost their seat?”). Only one thing is for sure. This is the election during which Britain’s press ‘lost it.’ The press just haven’t reflected reality, let alone the views of their readers. For months polls have put Conservatives and Labour close with about third of the vote each, and smaller parties destined to hold some balance of power.

But there has been no balance in the papers. Tracked by Election Unspun, the coverage has been unremittingly hostile to Ed Miliband, the Labour challenger, with national newspapers backing the Conservative incumbent, David Cameron over Labour by a ratio of five to one. Veteran US campaign manager David Axelrod finds this politicization of the print media one of the most salient differences with the US. “I’ve worked in aggressive media environments before,” he told POLITICO, “but not this partisan.” Axelrod may have ax to grind as he advises the Labour Party, but even a conservative commentator and long-serving lieutenant of Rupert Murdoch has been shocked. “Tomorrow’s front pages show British press at partisan worst,” Andrew Neil, former editor of the Sunday Times rued. “All pretense of separation between news and opinion gone, even in ‘qualities.’”

And that’s the difference. The whole newspaper industry seems to be affected by the tabloid tendentiousness trade-marked by Murdoch’s best-selling the Sun when it roared, in 1992, “It’s the Sun Wot Won It.” The Daily Mail specializes in political character assassination and the ‘Red Ed’ tag was predictable. But when the paper went on from attacking Miliband’s dead father to a hit-job on his wife’s appearance, the politics of personal destruction sank from gutter to sewer. In this precipitous race to the bottom, perhaps the Daily Telegraph had the steepest fall. Known as a bastion of the Tory thinking, it had long been respected for separating fact from comment. During this election cycle is was caught sourcing its front pages direct from Conservative Campaign HQ, seeming to confirm the parting words of its senior political commentator, Peter Oborne, that it was intent on committing “a fraud on its readership.”

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It would be quite something if she refuses to. End of credibility.

Angela Merkel Under Pressure To Reveal All About US Spying Agreement (Guardian)

Angela Merkel’s reputation as an unassailable chancellor is under threat amid mounting pressure for her to reveal how much she knew about a German-supported US spying operation on European companies and officials. The onus on her government to deliver answers over the spying scandal has only increased with the Austrian government’s announcement that it has filed a legal complaint against an unnamed party over “covert intelligence to the detriment of Austria”. EADS, now Airbus, one of the companies known to have been spied on by the BND – Germany’s foreign intelligence agency – is also taking legal action, saying it will file a complaint with prosecutors in Germany. The BND stands accused of spying on behalf of America’s NSA on European companies such as EADS, as well as the French presidency and the EU commission.

There are also suspicions that German government workers and journalists were spied on. The Social Democrats (SPD), Merkel’s government partners, along with Germany’s federal public prosecutor, Harald Range, are demanding the release of a list of “selectors” – 40,000 search terms used in the spying operations – the results of which were passed on to the NSA. “The list must be published and only then is clarification possible,” said Christine Lambrecht, parliamentary head of the SPD faction. Merkel has so far refused to allow its release. Her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said she would make a decision on whether or not to do so only “once consultations with the American partners are completed”.

Thomas de Maizière, the interior minister and a close Merkel confidante, is under even more pressure than the chancellor over allegations he lied about what he knew of BND/NSA cooperation. On Wednesday he answered questions on the affair to a parliamentary committee investigating the row, but only in camera and in a bug-proof room. Among other alleged shortcomings over the affair, he stands accused of failing to act when the BND informed him of the espionage activities in 2008 when he was Merkel’s chief of staff. He has repeatedly been portrayed in the tabloid media with a Pinocchio nose.

Responding to journalists during a break in the proceedings, he once again vehemently denied the allegations. “As chief of staff in 2008, I learned nothing about search terms used by the US for the purposes of economic espionage in Germany,” he said. But he acknowledged knowing about American efforts to intensify the intelligence swapping, calling it “problematic cooperation”, and said the requests had been turned down by the BND.

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Balance.

Chinese Warships To Join Russian Navy Drill In Black Sea, Mediterranean (RT)

Two Chinese missile frigates will enter the Russian Black Sea naval base of Novorossiysk for the first time in history. They will then conduct joint exercises with Russia in the Mediterranean. The Linyi and the Weifang will enter the port of Novorossiysk on May 8 to take part in Victory Day celebrations, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Each is a 4,000-ton vessel of the relatively new Type 054A (also known as Jiangkai II), which first entered service in 2007. They are accompanied by a support ship. This is the first time Chinese warships will have entered the Russian base. The ships will then head to the Mediterranean for joint drills with Russian forces.

“It is planned that the People s Liberation Army Navy warships will leave Novorossiysk on May 12 and relocate to the designated area of the Mediterranean Sea for the Russian-Chinese exercise Sea Cooperation-2015,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. The exercise will take place from May 11-21. Nine ships are scheduled to take part in total in the first drill of its kind to happen in the Mediterranean. The drills’ goal has been stated as deepening friendly cooperation between China and Russia and strengthening their combat ability in repelling naval threats. The exercise comes at a time when NATO and its allies are holding a massive wave of military drills all across Europe.

Collectively codenamed Operation Atlantic Resolve, NATO commanders and European leaders have said the training sends a message to Russia over its alleged aggression and the crisis in Ukraine. Some states are also conducting their own training maneuvers parallel to Atlantic Resolve. Russia has been conducting a series of military exercises within its territory throughout winter and in early spring, including massive drills in the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, the Arctic and the Far East.

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“Third-world bondage” down under.

Modern Slavery In Australia: Labour Exploitation Rife In Agriculture (RT)

The Australian investigative journalism program “Four Corners” has discovered that Australia’s biggest supermarkets and fast food chains are supplied with food from farms exploiting workers in slave labour-like conditions. According to Four Corners reporters, who used hidden cameras and undercover surveillance to reveal the “third-world bondage,” supermarkets such as Woolworths, Coles, Aldi, IGA and Costco and such fast food outlets as KFC, Red Rooster and Subway are implicated in the exploitative practice. The workers who are being abused are frequently migrants from Asia and Europe. They are being routinely harassed, forced to work and underpaid. Moreover, women workers are often propositioned for sex or asked to perform sexual favours in exchange for visas.

Underpayment for migrant workers gives the farms a competitive advantage over their contestants. Supermarkets prefer cheaper suppliers without paying attention to the labour conditions on their farms. This leads to a paradox: suppliers who play by the rules lose market share to those who don’t, according to ABC TV. For instance, SA Potatoes, one of the largest potato suppliers in Australia, says it has lately lost some of its contracts. “It’s gutting,” said the company’s CEO, Steve Marafioti, “They’re cheating the system…It’s not the correct thing. It’s not the right thing. It’s actually changing the shape of our industry.” Migrants come to Australia on the 417 working holiday visa system which gives them an opportunity to stay in Australia for 12 months and to work up to six months with a single employer.

However, the system is very often used to supply cheap labour in such low-skilled jobs as fruit and vegetable picking. The Four Corners investigation has prompted outrage across Australian society. “We will be known as a country that exploits vulnerable people who are looking for a better chance at life,” labour law and migration expert Joanna Howe told ABC News. She says the 417 visa should replaced with a new low-skilled work visa. “Successive governments, Labor and Liberal, have turned a blind eye to the fact that both international students and working holiday makers are being used as a low-skilled source of labour for farmers and other people across the country,” Howe said. A low-skilled work visa “would allow the whole system to be better regulated,” she added.

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More slavery.

Nepal Quake Victims’ Families Not Allowed To Leave Qatar For Funerals (Ind.)

Tens of thousands of workers on the 2022 football World Cup in Qatar cannot get home to see their families and attend funerals in the wake of last month’s Nepal earthquake. Qatar’s strict worker rules, known as kafala, mean that many of the 400,000 Nepalese workers in the country have their passports taken by employers and find it difficult to get permission to go home. The international campaign group Avaaz has written to Qatari authorities demanding compassionate leave for workers with families affected by the earthquake; it has yet to receive a response.

Sam Barratt, Avaaz’s campaign director, said: “We’re calling for these workers to be granted amnesty to go home. They are working on World Cup related infrastructure projects. Qatar was built with Nepal’s cheap labour; the least they can do is allow them to go home and grieve.” A Nepalese worker in Doha, who asked not to be named, said that his wife and children were now homeless: “My family lives in a village outside Kathmandu. Since the quake I have not been able to contact them… Two of my relatives in Kathmandu have died in the quake. My wife and two little children are sleeping on the road. I am desperate to go back… but I can’t leave because my employer won’t let me go. I can’t leave the job because I have to pay back the loan I had taken to get to Qatar.”

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“..the recent modest decrease in the rate of warming has elicited numerous articles and special issues of leading journals.”

How Climate Science Denial Affects The Scientific Community (PhysOrg)

Climate change denial in public discourse may encourage climate scientists to over-emphasise scientific uncertainty and is also affecting how they themselves speak – and perhaps even think – about their own research, a new study from the University of Bristol, UK argues. Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, from Bristol’s School of Experimental Psychology and the Cabot Institute, and colleagues from Harvard University and three institutions in Australia show how the language used by people who oppose the scientific consensus on climate change has seeped into scientists’ discussion of the alleged recent ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ in global warming, and has thereby unwittingly reinforced a misleading message.

The idea that ‘global warming has stopped’ has been promoted in contrarian blogs and media articles for many years, and ultimately the idea of a ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ has become ensconced in the scientific literature, including in the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Multiple lines of evidence indicate that global warming continues unabated, which implies that talk of a ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ is misleading. Recent warming has been slower than the long term trend, but this fluctuation differs little from past fluctuations in warming rate, including past periods of more rapid than average warming. Crucially, on previous occasions when decadal warming was particularly rapid, the scientific community did not give short-term climate variability the attention it has now received, when decadal warming was slower. During earlier rapid warming there was no additional research effort directed at explaining ‘catastrophic’ warming. By contrast, the recent modest decrease in the rate of warming has elicited numerous articles and special issues of leading journals.

This asymmetry in response to fluctuations in the decadal warming trend likely reflects what the study’s authors call the ‘seepage’ of contrarian claims into scientific work. Professor Lewandowsky said: “It seems reasonable to conclude that the pressure of climate contrarians has contributed, at least to some degree, to scientists re-examining their own theory, data and models, even though all of them permit – indeed, expect – changes in the rate of warming over any arbitrarily chosen period.” So why might scientists be affected by contrarian public discourse? The study argues that three recognised psychological mechanisms are at work: ‘stereotype threat’, ‘pluralistic ignorance’ and the ‘third-person effect’.

Read more …

Mar 242015
 
 March 24, 2015  Posted by at 10:02 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  9 Responses »


William Henry Jackson Tamasopo River Canyon, San Luis Potosi, Mexico 1890

About a month ago, Japan’s giant GPIF pension fund announced it had started doing in Q4 2014, what PM Abe had long asked it to: shift a large(r) portion of its investment portfolio from bonds to stocks. No more safe assets for the world’s largest pension fund, or a lot less at least, but risky ones. For Abe this promises the advantage of an economy that looks healthier than it actually is, while for the fund it means that the returns on its investments could be higher than if it stuck to safe assets. Not a word about the dangers, not a word about why pensions funds were, for about as long as they’ve been in existence, obliged by law to only hold AAA assets. This is from February 27:

Japan’s GPIF Buys More Stocks Than Expected In Q4; Slashes JGBs

Japan’s trillion-dollar public pension fund bought nearly $15 billion worth of domestic shares in the fourth quarter, more than expected, while slashing its Japanese government bond holdings as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prods the nation to take more risks to spur economic growth. The bullishness toward Japanese equities by the Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s biggest pension fund, boosted hopes in the Tokyo market that stocks have momentum to add to their 15-year highs.

GPIF said on Friday its holdings of domestic shares rose to 19.8% of its portfolio by the end of December from 17.79% at the end of September. Yen bonds fell to 43.13% from 48.39%. Adjusting for factors such as the Tokyo stock market’s rise of roughly 8% during the quarter, GPIF bought a net 1.7 trillion yen ($14 billion) of stocks in the period, reckons strategist Shingo Kumazawa at Daiwa Securities. GPIF’s investment changes are closely watched by markets, as a 1 percentage-point shift in the 137 trillion yen ($1.15 trillion) fund means a transfer of about $10 billion.

What economic growth can there be in shifting from safe assets to riskier ones? Isn’t economic growth in the end exclusively a measure of how productive an economy is? And isn’t simply shifting your money around between assets a clear and pure attempt to fake growth numbers? Moreover, doesn’t Abe himself indicate very clearly that there is risk involved here, that there is now a greater risk that pension money will have to take losses on its investments? Isn’t he simply stating out loud that he wants to turn the entire nation into a casino? And that without this additional risk there will and can be no economic growth?

It’s time for the Japanese to get seriously scared now. Like many other countries, Japan – and its political class – creates a false image of enduring prosperity by letting its central bank increasingly buy up ever more of its sovereign bonds. It’s a total sleight of hand, there is nothing left that’s real. There’s no there there. This is of course the same as what happens in Europe.

And it’s precisely because central banks buy up all these bonds, that their yields scrape the gutter. It’s a blueprint for killing off the last bit of actual functionality in an economy. All you have from there on in is fake, an artificial boosting of bond prices aimed at creating the appearance of a functioning economy, which can by definition only be a mirage. That it will temporarily boost stock prices in an equally artificial way only goes to confirm that.

But, evidently, artificially high stock prices carry a much greater risk than ones that are based on a free and functioning market and economy. So not only is there a shift from safe to risky assets, there’ s a double whammy in the fact that these large scale purchases boost stocks without having anything to do with the economic performance of the companies whose stocks are bought.

It may make Shinzo Abe look better for a fleeting moment, but for Japan’s pensioners it’s the worst option that is available.

And then last week, a group of smaller rising sun pension funds said they’d follow the example. The more the merrier….

Japan Public Pensions To Follow GPIF Into Stocks From JGBs

Three Japanese public pension funds with a combined $250 billion in assets will follow the mammoth Government Pension Investment Fund and shift more of their investments out of government bonds and into stocks. The three funds and the trillion-dollar Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s biggest pension fund, will announce on Friday a common model portfolio in line with asset allocations recently decided by the GPIF, the people told Reuters. Assuming, as expected, the three smaller mutual-aid pensions adopt the portfolio, that would mean shifting some 3.58 trillion yen ($30 billion) into Japanese stocks, a Reuters calculation shows.

The GPIF in October slashed its targeted holdings of low-yielding government bonds and doubled its target for stocks, as part of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to boost the economy and promote risk-taking. GPIF in October slashed its targeted holdings of low-yielding government bonds and doubled its target for stocks, as part of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to jolt Japan out of two decades of deflation and fitful growth and promote risk-taking. The shift to riskier investments by the 137 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion) GPIF has helped drive Tokyo Stocks to 15-year highs this week because of the fund’s size and because it is seen as a bellwether for other big Japanese institutional investors. The new model portfolio, part of a government plan to consolidate Japan’s pension system in October, will match the new GPIF allocations of 35% in Japanese government bonds, 25% in domestic stocks, 15% in foreign bonds and 25% in foreign stocks, the sources said.

Half of Japan’s pension money will be in stocks, domestic and foreign. And what do you think that means if and when there’s a major stock market crash – which is historically inevitable?

Never give a government any say in either your central bank or your pension fund. That’s a very sound lesson that unfortunately everyone seems to have forgotten. At their own peril. Sure, they’re looking like geniuses right now: look, the Nikkei is at a 15-year high! But it’s what’s going to come after that counts. For who believes that this situation can last forever? Or who, for that matter, believes that this head fake will the driver for real economic growth?

Sure enough, now the rest of the region has to follow suit: every pension fund in the region becomes a daredevil. But we know, don’t we, what the rising greenback is about to do to emerging markets that have huge amounts of dollar-denominated debt in their vaults. One thing this won’t do is boost stock markets; it will instead put many companies into either very bad financial straits or outright bankruptcy. And then you will have their pension funds holding a lot of empty bags. From the point of view of major banks this is ideal: this is how they get there hands on everyone’s pension funds, which I once labeled the last remaining store of real wealth.

Pension Funds Shun Bonds Just as Southeast Asia Needs Them Most

The biggest state pension funds in Thailand and the Philippines are shifting money from bonds to stocks, which could push up the cost of government stimulus programs. The Social Security Office and Government Service Insurance System said they’re increasing holdings of shares, while the head of Indonesia’s BPJS Ketenagakerjaan said he sees the nation’s stock index rising 14% by year-end. Rupiah, baht and peso notes have lost money since the end of January, after handing investors respective returns of 13%, 9.9% and 6.6% last year, Bloomberg indexes show.

“There has been frustration among domestic institutional investors about the falling returns on bonds,” Win Phromphaet, Social Security Office’s head of investment in Bangkok, said in a March 19 interview. “Large investors including SSO must quickly expand our investments in other riskier assets.” Appetite for sovereign debt is cooling just as Southeast Asian governments speed up construction plans in response to slowing growth in China and stuttering recoveries in Europe and Japan.

If Thailand and the Philippines, and many other nations in the region, want to speed up their infrastructure projects, their central banks, too, will have to buy up the vast majority of their sovereign bonds. They too will have to fake it. It’s fatally contagious.

And then a few days ago this passed by on the radar. The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund (Norway’s) joins the club. This may seem completely normal to some, either because they don’t give it much thought or because they work in this sort of field (people adopt strange ways of thinking), but for me, it just raises bright red alerts.

Biggest Wealth Fund Targets Tokyo for Next Real Estate Purchase

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is looking at Tokyo or Singapore for its first real estate investment in Asia as the investor expands globally. “That’s where we think we’ll start,” Karsten Kallevig, the chief investment officer of real estate at the Oslo-based fund, said in an interview after a speech in the Norwegian capital. “If we’re really successful there, then maybe we can add a third and a fourth and a fifth city at some point.” After in 2010 being allowed to expand into the property market, Norway’s $870 billion wealth fund has amassed about $18 billion in real estate holdings. It has snapped up properties in major cities such as New York, London and Paris, with a main focus on office properties. The fund is focusing on specific markets rather than sectors, Kallevig said.

“When we say Singapore and Tokyo, we mean the better parts” of those cities, he said. “My guess is office properties will be the main component, because that’s what’s for sale in those parts of town. There aren’t many shopping malls in the center of Tokyo or the center of Singapore.” Just as in earlier purchases in Europe and the U.S, the fund will also buy properties with partners, Kallevig said. The next trip in that area will probably be in the second quarter, he said. The property portfolio was 141 billion kroner ($17.5 billion), or 2.2% of the fund at the end of last year, compared to 1% at the end of 2013. Real estate returned 10.4% in 2014.

Kallevig has said he seeks to invest 1% of the fund in real estate each year until the 5% goal is met. The Government Pension Fund Global returned 7.6% in 2014, its smallest gain since 2011. The fund has warned it expects diminished returns amid record low, and even negative, yields in key government bond markets combined with slow growth in developed markets. Norway generates money for the fund from taxes on oil and gas, ownership of petroleum fields and dividends from its 67% stake in Statoil ASA. Norway is western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer. The fund invests abroad to avoid stoking domestic inflation.

Hmm. “The fund invests abroad to avoid stoking domestic inflation.” Really? In today’s zero percent world? Sounds curious. It may have been a valid objective in the past, but not today. What this is really about is chasing yield, just as in the pension fund case. Still, that was not the first thought that came to mind when reading this. That was: If Tokyo real estate were such a great investment, wouldn’t you think that Japan’s own pension funds would be buying? They’re chasing yield like crazy, but they would miss out on their own real estate assets which Norway’s fund thinks are such a great asset?

All this is not just the financial world on steroids, which is bad enough when you talk about someone’s pension, it’s the wrong kind of steroids too. The lethal kind. But then, without steroids the entire economic facade would be exposed as the zombie it has become. It’s insane for pension funds to buy stocks on a wholesale scale, because that distorts an economy beyond the point of recognition, it screws with price discovery like just about nothing else can, and it puts the pensioners’ money in grave danger. It’s equally insane for Norway to buy up property halfway around the world which giant domestic investors leave by the wayside.

Investing your pension money, and your wealth fund, into your own economy is such a more solid and soundproof thing to do, it shouldn’t even be an item up for discussion. Taking that money out of the foundation of an economy, and shifting it either to assets abroad, or into the casino all stock markets must of necessity be in the end, means abandoning and undermining the future strength of your own economy for the sake of a bit more yield today. At home, you could create infrastructure and jobs and resilience with it. All that is gone when you move it either abroad or into a casino.

Still, nothing really functions anymore the way it should. And that’s how you wind up in situations such as these. Central banks monetize debt to such extents, you could swear there’s a race going on. They do this to hide from view the debts that are out there, and that if exposed would make everything look much bleaker than it looks with various QEs and other steroid-based stimuli. In doing this, central banks kill bond yields, which chases pension- and wealth funds out of safe assets. A surefire way to create short term gains and long term losses, if not disaster. For the masses, that is. No losses in store for the few. They get only gains.

Mar 112015
 
 March 11, 2015  Posted by at 6:23 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  2 Responses »


DPC Grace Church, New York 1905

The Blistering Pace Of Dollar’s Rally Is Rattling Markets (MarketWatch)
EM Currency Turmoil As US Rate-Hike Jitters Bite (CNBC)
Here’s Why Draghi’s Inflation Bomb Could Prove to Be a Dud (Bloomberg)
Stronger Dollar Sends U.S. Stocks to Biggest Drop in Two Months (Bloomberg)
Get Ready For A Much Bigger Oil Shock (CNBC)
Thomas Piketty on the Eurozone: ‘We Have Created a Monster’ (Spiegel)
Why Understanding Money Matters in Greece (Rob Parenteau)
Varoufakis Unsettles Germans With Admissions In Documentary (Reuters)
Tsipras Says Will Pursue German War Reparations (Kathimerini)
Greece Got a ‘Deal’ in February, But Things Still Haven’t Calmed Down (Bloomberg)
Eurozone Central Bank Buying Crushes Yield Curves (Bloomberg)
Why Does America Continue To Subsidize Housing For The Wealthy? (Guardian)
China’s Solution to $3 Trillion Debt Is to Deal with It Later (Bloomberg)
Yellen Meets Senate Bank Chief With Fed Transparency in Focus (Bloomberg)
Chaos: Practice and Applications (Dmitry Orlov)
‘We’ll Buy Reverse Gas Supplies At $245’- Ukraine’s President (RT)
US Applies Pressure to States Opposing Anti-Russian Sanctions: Nuland (Sputnik)
It’s NATO That’s Empire-Building, Not Putin (Peter Hitchens)

The Blistering Pace Of Dollar’s Rally Is Rattling Markets (MarketWatch)

It’s probably not the dollar’s unrelenting march higher that is unsettling U.S. stock investors, but it might be the speed of the rally. “I think what people are concerned about is the pace of the dollar strength,” Douglas Borthwick at Chapdelaine said. “Countries can always adapt to currencies strengthening or weakening, but certainly as the dollar strengthens very, very quickly it leaves very little chance for others to adapt,” he said. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar remains far from its highs in the mid-1980s and early 2000s, but the pace of the rise over the past half year is the second fastest in the last 40 years, noted David Woo at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The ICE dollar index, a measure of the U.S. unit against a basket of six major rivals, is up 9% since the end of last year alone to trade at its highest level since late 2003. U.S. stocks dipped significantly, leaving the S&P 500 down 0.9% and within a whisker of erasing its 2015 gain after clawing back some of its earlier decline. The long-term correlation between the direction of the dollar and the S&P 500 is near zero, analysts note. But there have been periods when the dollar and stocks marched either in lock step or in opposite directions for significant periods. In the end, it all seems to come down to context. If the dollar rises because investors are confident about the future of the economy, then stocks can rise, too, as was the case in the late 1990s.

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“..currencies where countries have higher deficits or fiscal issues are under increased selling pressure..”

EM Currency Turmoil As US Rate-Hike Jitters Bite (CNBC)

Emerging market currencies were hit hard on Tuesday, while the euro fell to a 12-year low versus the U.S. dollar, on rising expectations for a U.S. interest rate rise this year. The South African rand fell as much as 1.5% to a 13-year low at around 12.2700 per dollar, while the Turkish lira traded within sight of last Friday’s record low. The Brazilian real fell over one% to its lowest level in over a decade. It was last trading at about 3.1547 to the dollar. Meanwhile, Europe’s single currency fell as low as $1.0731, its lowest level in 12 years, fueling talk of a move closer to parity against the greenback. A perception that a U.S. rate hike could come sooner rather than later has been building since the release of Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

Analysts said that concerns about fiscal issues were compounding weakness in some currencies. In the case of the euro, the massive quantitative easing (QE) program just unleashed by the ECB weighed. “It’s a case of broad-based dollar strength amid increased expectations of a U.S. rate hike this year,” Lee Hardman at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi told CNBC. “So currencies where countries have higher deficits or fiscal issues are under increased selling pressure, such as the South Africa rand, the Turkish lira and the Brazilian real. The euro is weakening on its own accord because of QE.”

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“..the higher the dollar goes the more likely investors will flee developing nations..”

Here’s Why Draghi’s Inflation Bomb Could Prove to Be a Dud (Bloomberg)

Mario Draghi’s inflation bomb could prove to be a dud. That’s because the weakness in the euro resulting from the European Central Bank’s €1.1 trillion quantitative-easing program risks being more than offset globally by the deflationary impact of a stronger dollar. Making that case as the euro trades around its lowest in 11 years against the greenback is David Woo, head of global rates and currencies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. He’s telling clients that pressure from a rising dollar threatens to rattle emerging markets, undermine U.S. stocks and curb commodities prices. Here’s how:

First, the higher the dollar goes the more likely investors will flee developing nations; that will make their borrowings in the U.S. currency more expensive, damaging their already-shaky outlook for growth. As Woo notes, the Turkish lira and Mexican peso have both reached or traded near all-time lows against the dollar in the past few days and Brazil’s real is at its weakest since 2004. China, which manages the value of its yuan against a basket of other currencies, may be forced to devalue to keep its products cheap in the international marketplace.

Next, because commodities are priced in dollars, the higher the greenback goes the more downward pressure will be applied to oil prices. Bank of America already says the likelihood is greater that crude falls rather than rises. Finally, Woo estimates the dollar’s rise is starting to undermine profits at home. U.S. companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index get 40% of their earnings from overseas and the index has fallen in 19 out of 27 trading days this year in which the greenback gained. “The obvious implication is that investors are becoming concerned about the ability of the U.S. economy to cope with the strengthening dollar,” Woo said in a report to clients Monday. “The decline of euro/dollar below 1.10 may be less benign than it may appear at first.”

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Pretty big losses.

Stronger Dollar Sends U.S. Stocks to Biggest Drop in Two Months (Bloomberg)

U.S. stocks fell the most in two months as the dollar strengthened to near a 12-year high versus the euro amid speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates. Intel and Cisco lost at least 2.4% as technology companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index led declines. United Technologies Corp., Goldman Sachs and Home Depot dropped more than 1.8% to pace losses among the biggest companies. The S&P 500 retreated 1.7% to 2,044.16 at the close in New York, falling below its average price for the past 50 days for the first time since Feb. 9. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 332.78 points, or 1.9%, to 17,662.94. Both indexes erased gains for the year. The Nasdaq 100 Index fell 1.9%. About 7.1 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 2.8% above the three-month average.

“A continuation of dollar strength and euro destruction is certainly raising some concerns,” Michael James at Wedbush Securities said in a phone interview. “I don’t think there was any one specific event or item that caused this, but the fact that it’s a trend that’s been going on for the last several weeks is concerning given the levels we’re at now.” Concern the Fed may start raising interest rates this year amid a strengthening economy has weighed on equities and helped boost the dollar. In his last speech as president of the Fed Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher said the central bank should begin to gradually raise rates before the economy reaches full employment to avoid triggering a recession.

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“..the Iran production growth story is just one but it makes factors such as Libya’s piddly production oscillation and rig count obsessions in the US pale into insignificance.”

Get Ready For A Much Bigger Oil Shock (CNBC)

So what’s the biggest trade in the markets right now? Could it be the one way bet on European fixed income with Draghi’s massive bond-buying program set to obliterate anyone who challenges ludicrously low bond yields? Or the tech bull position with the Nasdaq around year-2000 highs? For now let’s ignore the collapse in euro zone yield and the nose-bleeding valuations in tech and concentrate on my favourite trade – the brutal battle being fought in the oil market. Last week, InterContinental Exchange revealed that the hedge-betters and speculators were piling into the oil trade in levels not seen since the middle of last year. You remember the middle of last year, that was when crude was still at $110 per barrel, pretty much double where it is now. So are we setting ourselves up for another massive bout of volatility after a few weeks of relatively calm price action?

The longs are out in force, according to the data but are they too early in calling an end to the oil price rout? Brent may have had a fantastic rally in February, having plummeted to the low $40s region after last year’s rout. But was that a dead cat bounce ignoring the still dreadful near term fundamentals? Despite a lot of excitement about the falling rig count and the huge number of job expenditure cuts across exploration and production, there is still over-production not only in the US but also across the world. In fact, if you believe the bears, then the US will shortly run out of storage space above ground. The guys who’ve been in the industry and have seen cycle after cycle like this keep telling me that the cure for lower prices is lower prices. But when will we see supply and demand responses to $50-60 oil?

Well, many of the global wells just can’t afford to stop just yet, whether it is because of the need for Middle Eastern petro-dollars of the demanding Texan bank manager who still expects the oil well-related loan to be serviced. Surely the key factors in where we go next have still to come to the fore this year and we are still at the appetiser stage. For many, June will be the main event. That month is when the next scheduled OPEC meeting is due to take place and it is possibly the most likely time we will see a supply response from the group representing around a third of global production. The end of June just also happens to be the deadline for the Iran nuclear deal. If – and it’s a big “if” – Iran gets a framework agreement by the end of this month, the country will be desperate to ramp up production of oil as quickly as possible. And, believe me, it may take them months if not years but they really want to ramp it up.

Iran doesn’t just want to up its levels from the current 2.8 million barrels a day. It wants to first get to the 4 million barrels it was producing back in 2008 and then it wants to keep going on and on and on. That will set up Iran for a huge row with Saudi over OPEC production levels. Yes, the Iran production growth story is just one but it makes factors such as Libya’s piddly production oscillation and rig count obsessions in the US pale into insignificance. So for me the phoney war going on in the oil market at the moment may just result in a stalemate until the middle of the year. That is when we may get the real battle. The one that may just justify at least one side of the extreme calls from $20 to back up to $90 per barrel.

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A morally bankrupt monster.

Thomas Piketty on the Eurozone: ‘We Have Created a Monster’ (Spiegel)

SPIEGEL: You publicly rejoiced over Alexis Tsipras’ election victory in Greece. What do you think the chances are that the European Union and Athens will agree on a path to resolve the crisis?
Piketty: The way Europe behaved in the crisis was nothing short of disastrous. Five years ago, the United States and Europe had approximately the same unemployment rate and level of public debt. But now, five years later, it’s a different story: Unemployment has exploded here in Europe, while it has declined in the United States. Our economic output remains below the 2007 level. It has declined by up to 10% in Spain and Italy, and by 25% in Greece.

SPIEGEL: The new leftist government in Athens hasn’t exactly gotten off to an impressive start. Do you seriously believe that Prime Minister Tsipras can revive the Greek economy?
Piketty: Greece alone won’t be able to do anything. It has to come from France, Germany and Brussels. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) already admitted three years ago thatthe austerity policies had been taken too far. The fact that the affected countries were forced to reduce their deficit in much too short a time had a terrible impact on growth. We Europeans, poorly organized as we are, have used our impenetrable political instruments to turn the financial crisis, which began in the United States, into a debt crisis. This has tragically turned into a crisis of confidence across Europe.

SPIEGEL: European governments have tried to avert the crisis by implementing numerous reforms. What do mean when you refer to impenetrable political instruments?
Piketty: We may have a common currency for 19 countries, but each of these countries has a different tax system, and fiscal policy was never harmonized in Europe. It can’t work. In creating the euro zone, we have created a monster. Before there was a common currency, the countries could simply devalue their currencies to become more competitive. As a member of the euro zone, Greece was barred from using this established and effective concept.

SPIEGEL: You’re sounding a little like Alexis Tsipras, who argues that because others are at fault, Greece doesn’t have to pay back its own debts.
Piketty: I am neither a member of Syriza nor do I support the party. I am merely trying to analyze the situation in which we find ourselves. And it has become clear that countries cannot reduce their deficits unless the economy grows. It simply doesn’t work. We mustn’t forget that neither Germany nor France, which were both deeply in debt in 1945, ever fully repaid those debts. Yet precisely these two countries are now telling the Southern Europeans that they have to repay their debts down to the euro. It’s historic amnesia! But with dire consequences.

SPIEGEL: So others should now pay for the decades of mismanagement by governments in Athens?
Piketty: It’s time for us to think about the young generation of Europeans. For many of them, it is extremely difficult to find work at all. Should we tell them: “Sorry, but your parents and grandparents are the reason you can’t find a job?” Do we really want a European model of cross-generational collective punishment? It is this egotism motivated by nationalism that disconcerts me more than anything else today.

SPIEGEL: It doesn’t sound as if you are a fan of the Stability Pact, the agreement implemented to force euro-zone countries to improve fiscal discipline.
Piketty: The pact is a true catastrophe. Setting fixed deficit rules for the future cannot work. You can’t solve debt problems with automatic rules that are always applied in the same way, regardless of differences in economic conditions.

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Great read. h/t Yves.

Why Understanding Money Matters in Greece (Rob Parenteau)

As Greece staggers under the weight of a depression exceeding that of the 1930s in the US, it appears difficult to see a way forward from what is becoming increasingly a Ponzi financed, extend and pretend, “bailout” scheme. In fact, there are much more creative and effective ways to solve some of the macrofinancial dilemmas that Greece is facing, and without Greece having to exit the euro. But these solutions challenge many existing economic paradigms, including the concept of “money” itself. At the Levy Economics Institute conference held in Athens in November 2013, I proposed tax anticipation notes, or “TANs”, as a way for Greece to exit austerity without having to exit the euro.

This proposal is based on a deeper understanding of what money actually is, and the many roles that it plays in the economies we inhabit. In this regard, Abba Lerner captured the essence of modern fiat currencies, which are created out of thin air by modern states with sovereign currency arrangements. Lerner’s essential insight is contained in the following passage from over half a century ago (and, you will note, Lerner’s view informs much of the neo-chartalist view espoused by advocates of what is called Modern Monetary Theory):

The modern state can make anything it chooses generally acceptable as money…It is true that a simple declaration that such and such is money will not do, even if backed by the most convincing constitutional evidence of the state’s absolute sovereignty. But if the state is willing to accept the proposed money in payment of taxes and other obligations to itself the trick is done.

The modern state, then, imposes and enforces a tax liability on its citizens, and chooses that which is necessary to pay taxes. That means a state with a sovereign currency is never revenue constrained. In fact, the government has to first create the money before the private sector can find a way to get the money it requires to pay taxes and by government bonds. Taxes and bonds are therefore not really the source of government funding or finance. Wait, what? The government itself ultimately is the source of money required to pay for government expenditures. Taxes simply give value to money, as households and nonbank firms cannot create money – that is counterfeiting. Instead, they have to sell an asset or a product or a service to the government to get money, or they need to be beneficiaries of government corporate subsidy or household transfer programs to get money.

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Weird coincidence?

Varoufakis Unsettles Germans With Admissions In Documentary (Reuters)

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has described his country as the most bankrupt in the world and said European leaders knew all along that Athens would never repay its debts, in blunt comments that sparked a backlash in the German media on Tuesday. A documentary about the Greek debt crisis on German public broadcaster ARD was aired on the same day euro zone finance ministers met in Brussels to discuss whether to provide Athens with further funding in exchange for delivering reforms. “Clever people in Brussels, in Frankfurt and in Berlin knew back in May 2010 that Greece would never pay back its debts. But they acted as if Greece wasn’t bankrupt, as if it just didn’t have enough liquid funds,” Varoufakis told the documentary.

“In this position, to give the most bankrupt of any state the biggest credit in history, like third class corrupt bankers, was a crime against humanity,” said Varoufakis, according to a German translation of his comments. It was unclear when the program was recorded. Although strident criticism of the way Greece has been treated is typical for Varoufakis, a Marxist economist, the remarks caused a stir in Germany where voters and politicians are increasingly reluctant to lend Greece money. Bild daily splashed the comments on the front page and ran an editorial comment urging European leaders to stop providing Greece with ever more financial support. “The Greek government is behaving as if everyone must dance to its tune. But there must be an end to this madness. Europe must not be made to look stupid,” wrote a commentator.

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Syriza is not taking the attempts at humiliations lying down.

Tsipras Says Will Pursue German War Reparations (Kathimerini)

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras Tuesday expressed his government’s firm intention to seek war reparations from Germany, noting that Athens would show sensitivity that it hoped to see reciprocated from Berlin. In a speech in Parliament, launching a debate on the creation of a committee to seek war reparations, the repayment of a forced loan and the return of antiquities, Tsipras told MPs that the matter of war reparations was “very technical and sensitive” but one he has a duty to pursue. He also seemed to indirectly connect the matter to talks between Greece and its international creditors on the country’s loan program. “The Greek government will strive to honor its commitments to the full,” he said.

“But it will also strive to ensure all unfulfilled obligations toward Greece and the Greek people are fulfilled,” he added. “You cannot pick and choose on ethical issues.” Tsipras noted that Germany got support “despite the crimes of the Third Reich” chiefly thanks to the London Debt Agreement of 1953. Since reunification, German governments have used “silence, legal tricks and delays” to avoid solving the problem, he said. “We are not giving morality lessons but we will not accept morality lessons either,” Tsipras said. In comments to Parliament later PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos said it was important not to link the issue of reparations with Greece’s talks with creditors.

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Given the above, what’s that deal worth?

Greece Got a ‘Deal’ in February, But Things Still Haven’t Calmed Down (Bloomberg)

On February 20th, the Eurogroup came to an agreement with Greece on a way forward that would allow Greece access to further bailout funding. The agreement covered the way forward for Greece and consisted of three main elements.
• Greece would come up with a set of budgetary measures that would allow a successful review by the institutions.
• Greece would then implement these measures.
• The institutions would disburse funding to Greece as successful implementation progressed.

With this deal in place, it briefly seemed like things would quiet down for Greece, for a few months at least. Unfortunately, a sticking point has already emerged, which was highlighted at yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting. That sticking point is due to the very slow progress on meeting any of the elements of the February deal. The institutions are now going to take a larger role in formulating the measures Greece must undertake. The first meeting between Greece and the institutions is due to take place in Brussels tomorrow. If these meetings can produce measures that are acceptable to both sides, that will be a first step. But for Greece to access further funding it will have to also take the second step and start to implement those agreed measures. With time running out, there should be willingness on both sides to expedite this quickly. Recent events have shown, however, that each step forward in the process only happens at the last possible moment.

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Let’s all get sunk in a bottomless pit.

Eurozone Central Bank Buying Crushes Yield Curves (Bloomberg)

Euro-area government bonds with longer maturities surged as the region’s central banks bought sovereign debt for a second day, pushing yields closer to those on shorter-dated notes. That’s flattening so-called the yield curves of debt from Germany to Italy. Euro-system central banks were said to have purchased securities, including German five-year notes with a negative yield, under the ECB’s expanded quantitative-easing plan, according to three people with knowledge of the transactions. Belgian and Italian securities were also acquired, one of the people said. As the ECB and national members embark on purchases of sovereign debt designed to boost price growth in the region, rates on short-term securities are below zero in seven euro-area nations, meaning a buyer now would get less back than they paid if they held them to maturity.

That’s boosting demand for longer-dated bonds, particularly as the ECB’s rules preclude purchases of debt yielding below its deposit rate of minus 0.2%. German 30-year yields dropped the most in more than two months and touched an all-time low. “Nobody wants to fight the flow,” said Felix Herrmann, an analyst at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. “We have many investors who are desperately looking for yield. They are simply scaling into those bonds that yield some interesting pick up.” The yield premium investors demand to hold Germany’s 30-year bunds instead of two-year notes shrank to 100 basis points, or 1%age point, at 3:59 p.m. London time, the least since October 2008. The spread is down from 234 basis points a year ago. A yield curve is a chart of rates on bonds of varying maturities.

The Bundesbank may struggle to meet its buying quotas given the amount of German debt yielding less than the ECB deposit rate, SocGen analysts wrote in a client note. Germany’s seven-year yield dropped below zero for the first time since Feb. 27. “Without good purchases in the short-dated bonds, where outstandings are big, it is difficult to see how the Bundesbank is going to get its share of the program done,” the analysts wrote. Germany’s three-year note yields reached minus 0.24% Tuesday, while the four-year rate touched minus 0.197%, less than one basis point from the ECB’s deposit rate.

Longer-dated bonds are also being favored after policy makers last week failed to agree on how to share losses from buying bonds with negative yields. 78 of the 346 securities in the Bloomberg Eurozone Sovereign Bond Index already have rates below zero. “For me, as a fund manager, it doesn’t make sense to hold any bonds with a negative yield, so I’m happy to sell,” Christoph Kind, head of asset allocation at Frankfurt Trust, which manages about $20 billion, said Monday. “We are selling to the brokers, not directly to the ECB, but maybe in the end this will be bought by the ECB.”

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Because that’s the only way to keep the housing industry alive.

Why Does America Continue To Subsidize Housing For The Wealthy? (Guardian)

Many people in the US have given up on the American dream of owning a house: US homeownership rates have now dropped to the lowest point in almost 20 years. But the government shouldn’t be focusing on trying to raise that rate – for now, their priorities should lie with increasing affordable housing. For too long, well-off, high-income homeowners have benefited from generous government support. All the while, ordinary Americans are struggling to pay the rising rent. It is time to stop prioritizing home sales – increasingly out of reach for many Americans – and help everyday people attain a much more basic, and pressing need: affordable housing. Since the Great Depression, US housing policies have aimed almost exclusively at encouraging Americans to become homeowners.

Housing policies favor and heavily subsidize homeownership because it is said to help create strong communities and build family wealth. But it would be a mistake to continue with this approach now. Homeowners receive tax benefits for their housing expenses, mostly because of the enormously expensive mortgage interest deductions, which disproportionately benefits higher-income taxpayers. But no such support is offered to lower-income renters. The government should consider introducing housing tax credits or other tax benefits that would help those who are struggling to pay the rent. The federal government should also consider providing tax subsidies for land trusts or shared equity plans that help renters become homeowners but share the home’s appreciation with a third-party.

The old have policies have failed; we need to try a new approach. Though housing policies succeeded in encouraging renters to buy homes until the 1990s, homeownership has now become unaffordable for lower- and middle-income Americans largely because they do not have savings, and they have unstable and stagnated income – which has changed little (adjusted for inflation) since 1995. Because housing sales have been sluggish since the 2007-2009 recession, the US government has repeatedly tried to get people to buy houses, and keep existing homeowners in their houses. Yet programs like Hope for Homeowners program, the Home Affordable Modification Program and the Home Affordable Refinance Program all failed to achieve their goals of preventing owners from losing their homes, largely because of design flaws.

The homeownership problem is particularly acute in young adults, who entered the labor market at the time of the recession. Overall unemployment rates in 2007 were only 4.6%, but then soared to 9.3% by 2009. The jobs that have been created since the recession ended have mostly come from the low-wage retail, service and food/beverage sectors, making it harder even for young adults who have jobs to save money for a down payment – or even to pay rent. Student debt, which has skyrocketed, isn’t helping: average student loan balances increased by 91% from 2003 to 2012.

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Sounds sort of smart, but most debt is with the shadow banks, and that remains open.

China’s Solution to $3 Trillion Debt Is to Deal with It Later (Bloomberg)

China’s government has a creative solution to address repayment concerns hanging over more than $3 trillion in regional debt. It will deal with it later. The Finance Ministry issued a 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) quota for local governments to convert maturing high-cost debt into lower-yielding municipal notes to be repaid at a future date on March 8. Questions left unanswered include whether investors will be forced into the swap, how much transparency there will be over assets involved and whether the liabilities will strain the nation’s finances. China’s bond risk rose the most in a month on March 9 even as debt-rating companies welcomed the government’s plan to address regional debt, which Mizuho estimates may have reached 25 trillion yuan, bigger than Germany’s economy.

The ministry’s 500 billion yuan municipal bond trial and the auction of 100 billion yuan of special bonds is insufficient to meet local-government financing vehicle debt due this year while funding budgets, Moody’s Investors Service said. “It will buy time for the government to solve the local debt problem, as the transition period takes three to five years,” said Ivan Chung, a senior vice president at Moody’s in Hong Kong. “The 1 trillion yuan debt-swap plan will be able to cover the refinancing needs of the maturing bonds this year, as municipal bond issuance is not enough.” The government is seeking to rein in local-government borrowing while accelerating infrastructure spending to defend a 7% economic growth target. Regional authorities set up thousands of funding units to finance projects from sewage systems to subways after a 1994 budget law barred them from issuing notes directly. Their fundraising helped liabilities jump 67% from the end of 2010 to 17.9 trillion yuan as of June 2013.

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“That doesn’t jump out at me as a significant enough change.”

Yellen Meets Senate Bank Chief With Fed Transparency in Focus (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reached out on Tuesday to Republicans who want to shake up the central bank, meeting with the powerful head of the Senate Banking Committee who has called for more accountability from the Fed. Yellen declined to comment after her 25 minute-long meeting with Alabama Republican Richard Shelby at his offices in Washington. Shelby earlier told reporters that “what we are doing is trying to figure out exactly what we need to do legislatively to make the Fed more accountable to the people and to do a better job as a regulator.” Lawmakers from both parties have voiced concerns about the central bank and are narrowing their focus to the New York Fed, which is the target of proposals to either make its president subject to Senate confirmation or dilute its policy powers.

Republicans have complained about the Fed’s aggressive monetary policies and what they consider regulatory overreach. Democrats have accused the Fed of failing to police the largest banks to prevent the kind of excessive risk-taking that contributed to the financial crisis of 2008. Shelby previously said he’s looking “very strongly” at a proposal from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who is retiring next week, that would strip the New York Fed of its permanent vote on the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee.

Fisher’s staff has already responded to questions about his proposal from Shelby’s aides. Sherrod Brown, the senior Democrat on the Senate banking panel, said on Tuesday he favors a plan to make the president of the New York Fed a presidential appointment requiring Senate approval, like members of the Fed’s Washington-based Board of Governors. “The way we have the Fed structure, banks have so much influence over their regulator,” Brown, from Ohio, told reporters. “I don’t know if it should go any further than the New York Fed but it makes a lot of sense that the New York Fed be selected by the president and be confirmed.” While saying he would like to look more closely at the Fisher proposal, Brown said, “That doesn’t jump out at me as a significant enough change.”

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You can call it the Silly Empire, but that seems to ignore that chaos is the goal, rather than the means.

Chaos: Practice and Applications (Dmitry Orlov)

The term “chaos” has been popping up a lot lately in the increasingly collapse-prone world in which we find ourselves. Pepe Escobar has even published a book on it. Titled Empire of Chaos, it describes a scenario “where a[n American] plutocracy progressively projects its own internal disintegration upon the whole world.” Escobar’s chaos is tailor-made; its purpose is “to prevent an economic integration of Eurasia that would leave the U.S. a non-hegemon, or worse still, an outsider.” Escobar is not the only one thinking along these lines; here is Vladimir Putin speaking at the Valdai Conference in 2014:

A unilateral diktat and imposing one’s own models produces the opposite result. Instead of settling conflicts it leads to their escalation, instead of sovereign and stable states we see the growing spread of chaos, and instead of democracy there is support for a very dubious public ranging from open neo-fascists to Islamic radicals.

Why do they support such people? They do this because they decide to use them as instruments along the way in achieving their goals but then burn their fingers and recoil. I never cease to be amazed by the way that our partners just keep stepping on the same rake, as we say here in Russia, that is to say, make the same mistake over and over.

Indeed, Escobar’s chaos doesn’t seem to be working too well. Eurasian integration is very much on track, with China and Russia now acting as an economic, military and political unit, and with other Eurasian states eager to play a role. The European Union is, for the moment, being excluded from Eurasia because it is effectively under American occupation, but this state of affairs is unlikely to last due to budgetary problems. (To be precise, we have to say that it is under NATO occupation, but if we dig just a little, we find that NATO is really just the US military with a European façade hammered onto it Potemkin village-style.)

And so the term “empire” seems rather misplaced. Empires are ambitious undertakings that seek to exert control over their domain, and what sort of an empire is it if its main activity is stepping on the same rake over and over again? A silly one? Then why not just call it “The Silly Empire”? Indeed, there are lots of fun silly imperial activities to choose from. For example: arm and train moderate opposition to a regime you want to overthrow; find out that it isn’t moderate at all; try to bomb them into submission and fail at that too.

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Russia won’t stand for it.

‘We’ll Buy Reverse Gas Supplies At $245’- Ukraine’s President (RT)

Ukraine will pay $245 per thousand cubic meters for the gas it will get through reverse flow from Europe as the country diversifies its natural gas suppliers away from Russia, President Petro Poroshenko has said. Ukraine has significantly reduced its energy dependence on Russia, and will buy Russian gas through reverse flows from Europe at $245 per 1,000 cubic meters, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in a TV interview Monday. “We have lived through the winter; we bought only 2 billion cubic meters of gas with the last purchase at a price of less than $300 per 1,000 cubic meter. As a result, it all came down to the Russian Federation having had to apply for a pumping volume increase of 68%, which crashed the gas market. And today we will buy gas for $245 under reverse deliveries,” Poroshenko said.

Ukraine has increased the amount of gas collecting in its underground storage facilities to 23 million cubic meters per day compared with 8 million cubic meters in February, according to the data provided by the GSE association on Tuesday. Currently the country is accepting 10 million cubic meters of Russian gas daily at a price of $329 per 1,000 cubic meters. Ukraine claims it pays 15% more for Russian gas than Europe. Ukraine currently receives reverse deliveries of natural gas from Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. Gas supplies from Hungary have been reduced by Ukraine and stand at 715,000 cubic meters a day from March 7, which is almost 5 times lower than in February, according to reports from the TASS news agency. Capacity from Slovakia remains at 37.7 million cubic meters a day. Poland can deliver up to 717, 000 cubic meters a day compared with 840,000 cubic meters in February. Last week Ukraine imported 330 million of cubic meters of natural gas from Europe, and 81 million cubic meters from Russia.

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Send her home and keep her there.

US Applies Pressure to States Opposing Anti-Russian Sanctions: Nuland (Sputnik)

The United States government is applying pressure to European countries that oppose sanctions against Russia, US Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland said at a US Senate hearing on Tuesday. “We continue to talk to them bilaterally about these issues,” Nuland said of Hungary, Greece, and Cyprus, whose leaders have opposed anti-Russian sanctions. “I will make another trip out to some of those countries in the coming days and weeks.” Nuland noted that “despite some publically stated concerns, those countries have supported sanctions” in the European Union Council. Additionally, discussions between the United States and Europe have continued, Nuland said in her opening statements to the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee.

“We have already begun consultations with our European partners on further sanctions pressure should Russia continue fueling the fire in the east or other parts of Ukraine, fail to implement Minsk or grab more land,” she said. The United States, the European Union and their allies blame Russia for fueling the internal conflict in Ukraine and have imposed a series of sanctions against Russia targeting its defense, banking, and energy sectors. Russia has repeatedly denied the allegations and responded with targeted export bans. Some European nations including Greece, Hungary and Cyprus, have opposed further sanctions, and Spain has recently stated its opposition as well.

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Obviously.

It’s NATO That’s Empire-Building, Not Putin (Peter Hitchens)

Just for once, let us try this argument with an open mind, employing arithmetic and geography and going easy on the adjectives. Two great land powers face each other. One of these powers, Russia, has given up control over 700,000 square miles of valuable territory. The other, the European Union, has gained control over 400,000 of those square miles. Which of these powers is expanding? There remain 300,000 neutral square miles between the two, mostly in Ukraine. From Moscow’s point of view, this is already a grievous, irretrievable loss. As Zbigniew Brzezinski, one of the canniest of the old Cold Warriors, wrote back in 1997, ‘Ukraine… is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.’

This diminished Russia feels the spread of the EU and its armed wing, Nato, like a blow on an unhealed bruise. In February 2007, for instance, Vladimir Putin asked sulkily, ‘Against whom is this expansion intended?’ I have never heard a clear answer to that question. The USSR, which Nato was founded to fight, expired in August 1991. So what is Nato’s purpose now? Why does it even still exist? There is no obvious need for an adversarial system in post-Soviet Europe. Even if Russia wanted to reconquer its lost empire, as some believe (a belief for which there is no serious evidence), it is too weak and too poor to do this. So why not invite Russia to join the great western alliances?

Alas, it is obvious to everyone, but never stated, that Russia cannot ever join either Nato or the EU, for if it did so it would unbalance them both by its sheer size. There are many possible ways of dealing with this. One would be an adult recognition of the limits of human power, combined with an understanding of Russia’s repeated experience of invasions and its lack of defensible borders.

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Feb 062015
 
 February 6, 2015  Posted by at 11:44 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »


DPC Chamber of Commerce, Boston MA 1904

Deflation Risk in U.S. Seen Rivaling Euro Area (Bloomberg)
Stocks Will Be ‘Ripped To Smithereens’: Albert Edwards (CNBC)
Oil Heading For $30, Currency War Coming (CNBC)
Is China Preparing for Currency War? (Pesek)
China’s Monumental Debt Trap – Why It Will Rock The Global Economy (Stockman)
Conquering China’s Mountain of Debt (Bloomberg)
The Debt Write-off Behind Germany’s ‘Economic Miracle’ (France24)
Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold (Zero Hedge)
Time for #GreekLivesMatter (Naked Capitalism)
Greek Leaders Return Home for Rethink After Rebuff From Germany (Bloomberg)
ECB Said to Allow Greek Banks €59.5 Billion Emergency Cash (Bloomberg)
Greek Debt Drama Is ‘Theater,’ But Stakes Are High (CNBC)
Greece and Varoufakis Need Supporters Not Sympathisers (Guardian)
The Lazard Banker Shaping Greece’s and Ukraine’s Financial Fate (WSJ)
Banker to the Broke: Lazard Advises Greece, Ukraine (Bloomberg)
Abenomics Leaves Japan’s Poor and Elderly Behind (Bloomberg)
Is Denmark Facing A Speculative Attack? (CNBC)
Australia Central Bank Acting Like It ‘Just Woke Up’ (CNBC)
Oz PM Abbott Fights for Political Life as Colleagues Seek Ouster (Bloomberg)
Venezuela Oil Deal Hits Caribbean Hard (CNBC)
John Kerry Rated Worst Secretary Of State In 50 Years (MarketWatch)

“The scales will soon lift from the market’s eyes.”

Deflation Risk in U.S. Seen Rivaling Euro Area (Bloomberg)

Deflation would be as much of an issue for the U.S. as it is for the euro region if consumer prices were tracked the same way, according to Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale SA. The Chart Of The Day helps illustrate how Edwards drew his conclusion, presented in a report yesterday. He tracked changes in the core U.S. consumer-price index, which excludes food and energy, and the CPI for shelter. Core inflation in December was 1.6%, according to the Labor Department. That’s 0.9 percentage point more than the euro region’s comparable figure, as compiled by Eurostat. This gap disappears after bringing the U.S. figure into line with Eurostat’s definition of housing, Edwards wrote.

“The deflationary fault line on which the U.S. sits is every bit as precarious as that of the euro zone, but is being disguised,” the London-based strategist wrote. “The scales will soon lift from the market’s eyes.” Ten-year Treasury notes are headed for yields of less than 1% as the deflation threat grows, according to Edwards. The yield stood at 1.81% yesterday after ending last month at 1.64%. The adjusted U.S. data exclude owners’ equivalent rent, or the estimated cost borne by homeowners who live in their houses as opposed to renting them out. The euro region doesn’t have a similar category.

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“U.S. numbers differ because they are measured with “shelter inflation” which is derived from housing costs based on rent, not the price of homes.”

Stocks Will Be ‘Ripped To Smithereens’: Albert Edwards (CNBC)

Societe Generale’s notoriously bearish strategist, Albert Edwards, has warned that the deflation threat currently dogging the euro zone is greater in the U.S. and that equity markets will soon be “ripped to smithereens.” “The deflationary fault line on which the U.S. sits is every bit as precarious as that of the euro zone, but is being disguised,” he said in a new research note on Thursday. “The scales will soon lift from the market’s eyes.” Despite years of central bank easing, consumer price growth across the world has begun to stagnate with the euro zone recently falling into deflationary territory – when consumer price growth turns negative. An official flash figure for the 19-country region last week showed prices fell by 0.6% year-on-year in January.

Across the Atlantic, consumer prices increased 0.8% in the 12 months through December, the weakest reading since October 2009. The U.S. might be posting better figures than the euro zone, but Edwards argues that it’s not a like-for-like comparison. “My former esteemed colleagues Marchel Alexandrovich and David Owen pointed out to me that if U.S. core CPI (consumer price index) is measured in a similar way to the euro zone, then U.S. core CPI inflation is already ‘pari passu’ (on an equal footing) with the euro zone despite the former having enjoyed a much stronger economy,” he said. He adds that U.S. numbers differ because they are measured with “shelter inflation” which is derived from housing costs based on rent, not the price of homes.

This has been preventing U.S. core CPI from falling away sharply, to the extent that it has in the euro zone, according to Edwards. With this warning, Edwards now believes that there is “ample room” for global yields to fall further over the next two years. He believes that market participants will see sub-1% yields on the U.S. 10-year sovereign, down from its current level of 1.8015%. Edwards regularly touts the idea of an economic “Ice Age” in which equities will collapse because of global deflationary pressures. On Thursday he maintained his view that equities are likely to fall below 2009 lows. “I remain confident that the global equity markets will be ripped to smithereens in the next economic downturn which will, once again, show that the central banks have inflated another massive unstable financial bubble,” he said. “The market is far too convinced that the U.S. is in the spring of its economic recovery, whereas I believe we could well be in the autumn.”

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“Kilduff said that the industry had merely gotten rid of “the runts of the litter..”

Oil Heading For $30, Currency War Coming (CNBC)

So much for the rally. Oil will likely still head as low as $30, analyst John Kilduff told CNBC on Thursday. “I still believe we’re going to go to that $30 to $33 area, which is the low point from the financial crisis in 2008, 2009. What you saw over the past several days was technical in nature, a short squeeze. This volatility is a little crazy and I think that $30 target is a downside target is for technicians that are in this market,” the founding partner of Again Capital said in a “Squawk Box” interview. U.S. crude tumbled 9% on Wednesday to settle at $48.45, erasing nearly all of its gains in the previous two sessions. The benchmark commodity – West Texas Intermediate – had soared 22% from a nearly six-year low of $43.58 last Thursday, ending the day at $53.05 on Tuesday.

The rally’s sharp reversal spilled over into the stock market, with energy stocks leading the day’s decline in the S&P 500. Data on Friday that showed exploration and production companies had shut down 90 rigs in the prior week boosted the rally. Kilduff said that the industry had merely gotten rid of “the runts of the litter,” noting that U.S. production had not fallen and still stands at 9.1 million barrels a day. He said speculation that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, would agree to production cuts in order to reach a deal with Russia on the Syrian conflict also sent oil higher.

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It has no choice.

Is China Preparing for Currency War? (Pesek)

China has entered the global monetary-easing fray, along with more than a dozen other economies, after its central bank surprised investors by cutting reserve requirements 50 basis points to spur lending and combat deflation. But Beijing may be raring for an even bigger and more perilous fight – in the currency markets. Reducing the amount of cash that banks are required to set aside (to 19.5%), as China has just done, is largely symbolic – a don’t-panic-we’re-on-top-of-things reassurance to international markets and local property developers. Still, the move is also an inflection point. China is in all likelihood about to loosen monetary policy considerably to support economic growth. If global conditions worsen, China’s one-year lending rate, now at 5.6%, could head toward zero.

At the same time, something else is afoot in Beijing could have even greater global impact. The central bank is cooking up measures to widen the band in which its currency trades. People’s Bank of China officials say it’s about limiting volatility as capital zooms in and out of the economy. Let’s call it what it really is: the first step toward yuan depreciation and currency war. As China grapples with its slowest growth in 24 years, President Xi Jinping is under pressure to stimulate the economy. Yet that would run afoul of his pledges to curb runaway debt and credit (the latter jumped about $20 trillion from 2009 to 2014). What better way to gin up growth without adding to China’s bubbles than by sharply weakening the exchange rate?

A cheaper yuan would boost exports and buy Xi more time to recalibrate growth engines away from excessive investment and debt. “The real economy desperately needs a weaker yuan,” says economist Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research. The question is, does the rest of the world? Any significant drop in the yuan would prompt Japan to unleash another quantitative-easing blitz. The same goes for South Korea, whose exports are already hurting. Singapore might feel compelled to expand upon last week’s move to weaken its dollar. Before long, officials in Bangkok, Hanoi, Jakarta, Manila, Taipei and even Latin America might act to protect their economies’ competitiveness.

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David Stockman sent me a mail last night pointing out we had written on the same topic yesterday: “Perhaps there truly is such a thing as “great minds thinking”………..etc.” My inevitable reply: “That IS funny, yeah. You’ll never see me thinking of myself as a great mind, though (you, different story altogether), I’m just an outsider describing the crash to all the other outsiders.” See also: Debt In The Time Of Wall Street.

China’s Monumental Debt Trap – Why It Will Rock The Global Economy (Stockman)

Bloomberg News finally did something useful this morning by publishing some startling graphs from McKinsey’s latest update on the worldwide debt tsunami. If you don’t mind a tad of rounding, the planetary debt total now stands at $200 trillion compared to world GDP of just $70 trillion. The implied 2.9X global leverage ratio is daunting in itself. But now would be an excellent time to recall the lessons of Greece because the true implications are far more ominous. Today’s raging crisis in Greece was hidden from view for many years in the run-up to its first EU bailout in 2010 because the denominator of its reported leverage ratio – national income or GDP – was artificially inflated by the debt fueled boom underway in its economy.

In other words, it was caught in a feedback loop. The more it borrowed to finance government deficit spending and business investment, whether profitable or not, the more its Keynesian macro metrics – that is, GDP accounts based on spending, not real wealth—-registered a falsely rising level of prosperity and capacity to carry its ballooning debt. Five years later, of course, the picture is much different. Greece’s GDP has now shrunk by more than 25%. The abysmal picture depicted in the graph below explains what really happened. Namely, that the bloated denominator of GDP came crashing back to earth, exposing that Greece’s true leverage was dramatically higher than the 100% ratio reported in the years before the crisis.

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“They receive only about half of China’s total tax revenue, while they must pay for 80% of all government expenses..”

Conquering China’s Mountain of Debt (Bloomberg)

Close the back door, open the front door. That s the official slogan used to describe China s most ambitious reform of government finances in two decades, to be introduced later in 2015. The aim is to wean badly indebted local governments tens of thousands of cities, counties, and townships off their dangerous reliance on off-balance-sheet financing and backdoor borrowing, from both banks and the unregulated shadow finance sector. Funds to support China s rapid urbanization to build infrastructure, keep pension programs solvent, and more will come from a vastly expanded, newly legalized local bond market.

The development of a local bond market is a real milestone, says Debra Roane, senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service. Once local governments start issuing debt in their own name, it will be clear that they are responsible for it, and that will ultimately lead to more prudent decision- making. They will stay away from riskier projects. Ever since China’s last major fiscal reform in the mid-1990s, when then-Vice Premier Zhu Rongji restored control of public finances to the national government, local governments have faced a dilemma. They receive only about half of China’s total tax revenue, while they must pay for 80% of all government expenses, including schools, roads, and health care. The local governments are banned from borrowing directly from banks and from issuing bonds.

As a result, a vast, unregulated industry has sprung up in what many call local government finance vehicles. Some 10,000 of these for-profit finance companies raise funds for local needs. They also have enabled local authorities to commit acts of apparent folly. The finance companies, with the implicit backing of local governments, bankrolled entire new city districts that now sit largely empty. This has led to a very opaque and risky situation, with unclear accountability, Roane says. It s not clear who is responsible for all this debt. China’s officially stated deficit is about 2% of its gross domestic product. That’s a fiction, says Chen Long, China economist at researcher GavekalDragonomics in Beijing, because it doesn’t include any of this indirect local borrowing. Add it in and the deficit rises to about 5% of GDP, Chen estimates. The National Audit Office found that as of 18 months ago, local debt including indirect borrowing totaled 17.9 trillion yuan ($2.86 trillion), up 63% since the end of 2010, much more than the 40% expansion of the economy.

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As Tsipras said (paraphrased) : “And we didn’t even kill anyone”.

The Debt Write-off Behind Germany’s ‘Economic Miracle’ (France24)

When discussing Greece’s whopping $310 billion debt, the country’s new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras likes to recall a time when Europe’s great debt offender was not Greece, but Germany, today’s paragon of fiscal responsibility. The leader of the radical-left Syriza party refers in particular to an international conference held in London in 1953, during which West Germany secured a write-off of more than 50% of debt, accumulated after two world wars. Back then, with memories of Nazi atrocities still fresh, many countries were reluctant to offer such generous debt relief. But the US persuaded its European allies, including Greece, to relinquish debt repayments and reparations in order to build a stable and prosperous Western Europe that could contain the threat from Soviet Russia.

“Tsipras is right to remind Germans how well they were treated, with both debt relief and money from the Marshall Plan,” says Professor Stephany Griffith-Jones, an economist at Columbia University, referring to the US programme to help rebuild European economies after World War II. She believes Greece is justified in demanding a more generous approach from its creditors, despite obvious differences between its current plight and that of war-ravaged Germany. “In fact, Greece’s situation is perhaps more urgent because the pressure from markets and the financial sector is so much stronger than in the 1950s,” she says.

West Germany’s debt at the time was well below the levels seen in Greece today. But German negotiators successfully argued that it would hinder efforts to rebuild the country’s economy – much as Greek governments have in recent years, in vain. Under a crucial term of the London Agreement, repayments of the remaining debt were made conditional on West Germany running a trade surplus. In other words, the German government would only pay back its creditors when it could afford to – and not by borrowing even more money. Reimbursements were also limited to 3% of export earnings. This gave Germany’s creditors an incentive to import German goods so they would later get their money back, thereby laying the foundations of the country’s powerful export sector and fostering its so-called “economic miracle”.

“Germany’s resurgence has only been possible through waiving extensive debt payments and stopping reparations to its World War II victims,” economic historian Albrecht Ritschl told Der Spiegel in 2011, describing Germany as “the biggest debt transgressor” of the past century. “During the 20th century, Germany was responsible for what were the biggest national bankruptcies in recent history,” Ritschl said, pointing to the collapse of the German economy in the early 1930s, which sent shockwaves through global markets. “It is only thanks to the United States, which sacrificed vast amounts of money after both World War I and World War II, that Germany is financially stable today and holds the status of Europe’s headmaster. That fact, unfortunately, often seems to be forgotten.”

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“If DB is right, and if Europe folds, the question then is what concessions will the ECB and the Eurozone be prepared to give to Italy, Spain and all the other nations where anti-European sentiment has been on a tear..”

Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold (Zero Hedge)

The Greek situation summaries Greece by Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos have consistently been among the best in the entire sellside. His latest Greek update, which is a must read for anyone who hasn’t been following the fluid developments out of southeast Europe, which fluctuate not on an hourly but on a minute basis, does not disappoint. But while his summary of events is great, what is of far greater significance is his conclusion, namely that ultimately Europe will fold: “we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program” and “given that the current program expires this February the offer to negotiate a new Third program may provide political room for the government to sit on the negotiating table.

At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question. Developments overnight suggest that this has become less likely, imposing maximum pressure on the government to reach agreement within a matter of weeks.” If DB is right, and if Europe folds, the question then is what concessions will the ECB and the Eurozone be prepared to give to Italy, Spain and all the other nations where anti-European sentiment has been on a tear in recent months, and especially in the aftermath of Syriza’s stunning victory.

From Deutsche Bank: Greek Update

Over the last couple of weeks we have framed developments in Greece around three questions:
• First, under what conditions would the Troika be willing to continue negotiating with Greece?
• Second, does the Greek government accept these conditions?
• Third, how does the ECB link Greek bank financing to program negotiation?

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“The ECB’s kneecapping of Greece demonstrates how central banks act as powerful enforcers on behalf of lenders and investors. The ECB operates with no concern that it will be reined in by democratic governments..”

Time for #GreekLivesMatter (Naked Capitalism)

If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem. The Troika’s willingness to turn Greece into a failed state first, as a side effect of its “rescue the French and German banks” operation, and now, as part of its German hegemony protection racket, is killing people and in the longer term will only accelerate the rise of extreme right wing elements in the Eurozone. As Ilargi wrote last week:

In what universe is it a good thing to have over half of the young people in entire countries without work, without prospects, without a future? And then when they stand up and complain, threaten them with worse? How can that possibly be the best we can do? And how much worse would you like to make it? If a flood of suicides and miscarriages, plummeting birth rates and doctors turning tricks is not bad enough yet, what would be?

If you live in Germany or Finland, and it were indeed true that maintaining your present lifestyle depends on squeezing the population of Greece into utter misery, what would your response be? F##k ‘em? You know what, even if that were so, your nations have entered into a union with Greece (and Spain, and Portugal et al), and that means you can’t only reap the riches on your side and leave them with the bitter fruit.

[..] Please circulate this post widely and tweet it, using #GreekLivesMatter. If you live in a city where a central bank is located, get this idea in front of organizers. They can no doubt adapt and improve upon it. And above all, send it to all the Greeks you know, even those in Greece who might send it on to friends and family in the diaspora. If you are in the US, please contact your Congressman and express your dismay that the Fed is tacitly supporting the ECB in its reckless and destructive Eurozone policies and has the stature and the leverage to weigh in. Remember, many Republicans are as unhappy with the lack of transparency and undue concentration of power at the Fed. Even a small step supporting this effort is a step in the right direction.

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“We didn’t even agree to disagree from where I’m standing..”

Greek Leaders Return Home for Rethink After Rebuff From Germany (Bloomberg)

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is preparing to set out the most detailed account yet of his plans to revive the Greek economy after a diplomatic push ended with a rebuff from Germany and a warning shot from the ECB. Tsipras was greeted by the rare sight of a pro-government demonstration in downtown Athens on Thursday night after he vowed to stick to his anti-bailout campaign pledges, despite their rejection by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. The prime minister will lay out his policy plans on Sunday, in the opening speech of the three-day-long parliamentary debate leading up to a confidence vote to confirm his government.

Ministers met in Athens on Thursday to discuss the policy program and may reconvene on Saturday to assess Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’s feedback from his meeting with Schaeuble in Berlin. The first direct talks between Greece and Germany since Tsipras took power yielded no agreement on how to narrow their differences over Tsipras’s determination to end the German-led austerity regime. “We agreed to disagree” Schaeuble said after meeting Varoufakis on Thursday. “We didn’t even agree to disagree from where I’m standing,” the Greek responded.

A few hours before the Berlin encounter, the ECB heaped pressure on Tsipras by restricting Greek access to its direct liquidity lines, citing concerns about the country’s commitment to existing bailout pledges. The Greek government opted to “stop cooperating with the troika,” ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said in a speech in Venice on Thursday. The move leaves Greek banks reliant on €59.5 billion of Emergency Liquidity Assistance, extended by the Bank of Greece, which is subject to review by the ECB Governing Council every two weeks. Undeterred by the ECB reaction, which triggered a sell-off in Greek bank shares, Tsipras told lawmakers from his party, Syriza, that he intends to stick to his campaign promises. “The government will negotiate hard for the first time in years, and will put a final end to the troika and its policies,” Tsipras said.

As Tsipras was speaking, hundreds gathered outside the parliament building to protest against the ECB’s decision, labeling it “blackmail.” Unlike the riots which rocked the Greek capital in 2011 and 2012, the march was peaceful and evening news bulletins dedicated more time to the fact that Syriza lawmakers opt not to wear ties than to the market declines, which saw bank stocks lose 10%. Sakellaridis said that Tsipras’s visits to Nicosia, Rome, Paris and Brussels this week had yielded results and the government isn’t alarmed about the potential impact of the ECB decision. Central bank governor Yannis Stournaras said the ECB decision “can be reversed” and the outflow of banking deposits is “under control.” “It was a very quiet day today,” he said, after meeting Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis.

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Allow?! If it walks feudal, and quacks feudal…

ECB Said to Allow Greek Banks €59.5 Billion Emergency Cash (Bloomberg)

The European Central Bank will allow the Greek central bank to provide as much as €59.5 billion in emergency funding for the country’s lenders, a euro-area central-bank official familiar with the decision said. The measure is needed after the ECB shut off a key avenue for Greek banks’ funding on Wednesday, citing doubts that the country’s newly elected government will conclude its aid program. Greek stocks and bonds fell on Thursday after the ECB’s decision to end a waiver on the quality of Greek debt it accepts as collateral. The offer highlights how ECB officials are warning Greek politicians to keep to euro-area rules while striving to avoid a crisis in the financial system.

The ECB approved €50 billion in ELA as a replacement for its regular funding, plus an extra €9.5 billion, the official said, asking not to be identified because the proceedings aren’t public. German newspaper Die Welt reported earlier on Thursday that the ECB would allow the Greek central bank to offer about €60 billion in ELA. Under the measure, a nation’s central bank can provide liquidity to lenders at its own risk. The ECB will review ELA every two weeks to check whether the funds are being used in a way that doesn’t interfere with monetary policy. Should the ECB object, “the bank concerned cannot fund itself and that the bank concerned the same day or in the next couple of days would miss a payment and the counterpart will call a bankruptcy,” Governing Council member Klaas Knot said at the Dutch parliament in The Hague on Thursday. “So you have a credit event,” he said, while declining to comment specifically on Greece.

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“Everyone wants to live in fairyland and none of us want to go back to real economies [..] This is nice theater, but it’s not going to solve anything.”

Greek Debt Drama Is ‘Theater,’ But Stakes Are High (CNBC)

The ongoing drama surrounding Greece’s efforts to drum up support for a new debt deal is just “theater,” according to one analyst, who warned that Europe needs to wake up. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis met his German counterpart Wolfgang Scheuble in Berlin on Thursday, after a week of travelling across Europe to try and bolster support for a new debt deal and bailout conditions. The talks were a mixed success, however, with Scheuble saying that the ministers had “agreed to disagree,” but Varoufakis denying that this was the case. Satyajit Das, author of “Traders, Guns & Money” told CNBC Friday that the talks were symptomatic of a “make-believe world.”

“Everyone wants to live in fairyland and none of us want to go back to real economies,” he said. “This is nice theater, but it’s not going to solve anything.” With no apparent progress over a debt deal for Greece, despite a week of high profile meetings between Varoufakis and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and their fellow euro zone ministers, there is growing speculation over the eventual outcome. Das, an expert on financial derivatives and risk management, went on to stress that Greece’s “underlying dynamics” hadn’t changed. “They still can’t pay back their debt and we haven’t fixed anything. We still have to fix the basic economy,” he said. “The fundamental thing is that the Greeks want to be in the euro, they want to get this relief. The Germans want to save the German banks and the French want to save the French banks –they don’t want to have write-offs.” [..]

Panicos Demetriades, former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, told CNBC Friday that a “game of chicken” was being played out between the Greeks and Germans. And he added that an agreement over Greece was needed sooner rather than later in order to maintain confidence in the Greek financial system. “The Greeks have done everything possible to gain support for their positions, which are not unreasonable as the program doesn’t seem to be producing what was expected of it,” he told CNBC. “But they really don’t have the time that they think they do – that time isn’t there.” Demetriades, professor of financial economics at the University of Leicester, said that the ECB move was a symptom of deposit outflows in Greece. “Depositors are getting nervous. Even a small chance of the euro area breaking up would leave them in a mess,” he said. “It is important that the Greek government understands that if there is no agreement soon things will progressively get worse for them.”

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“Varoufakis’s plea for “space for all of us to come to an agreement” sounds no more than common sense.”

Greece and Varoufakis Need Supporters Not Sympathisers (Guardian)

What has Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, achieved during his grand tour of European capitals this week? Not much. He has collected a few rave reviews for his dress sense and sounded a model of sweet reasonableness in his press conferences. But on the substance? Yesterday in Berlin Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, said Greece’s European partners had already gone as far as they would go on debt relief. He invited Athens to help itself. Varoufakis was left in the odd position of disputing Schäuble’s assertion that the pair had agreed to disagree. Over in Frankfurt, the ECB cranked up the pressure on Greece by yanking its banks’ access to cheap funding: Greek government bonds will no longer be accepted as collateral.

The banks can still get emergency liquidity by going through Greece’s central bank. But they will pay a higher rate of interest for that dubious privilege. What’s more the central bank’s ability to keep the funds flowing is not endless because the ECB can impose limits. The message behind the ECB’s decision seemed clear: we will play hard; we are not about to change our rules of engagement; the time for Greece’s new Syriza government to face reality is fast approaching. Indeed, the end of this month now looms as a real, and dangerous, crunch-point. Syriza has said it wants to exit the bailout programme and argues for a three-month bridging loan to allow time for negotiations. The message from Shäuble was a firm no to the loan. A stand-off between Syriza and the eurozone powerhouses was always in the offing but the positions are now stark. Something has to give here – and quickly.

In a rational world, a bridging loan would be an excellent idea. Attempting to resolve the Greek mess via brinkmanship in the space of three weeks is madness. Remaining depositors in Greek banks will be fleeing. Varoufakis’s plea for “space for all of us to come to an agreement” sounds no more than common sense. Extending finance to Athens until the end of May would not cost much. If the ECB is restricted by its mandate, politicians could always find a pragmatic fudge; they have done so many times in the past. But that is not the way the winds are blowing. Even François Hollande in France and Matteo Renzi in Italy called the ECB’s move legitimate and said it was a way to force agreement. The eurozone’s big beasts seem determined to force a quick resolution, rather than accept Syriza’s timetable.

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Socialist punk banker.

The Lazard Banker Shaping Greece’s and Ukraine’s Financial Fate (WSJ)

Europe’s financial future may hang in the balance in an office on Paris’s Boulevard Haussmann that belongs to a French banker with a taste for punk rock. Matthieu Pigasse is a self-described pro-market socialist and fan of The Clash. The 46-year-old financier is also head of the government advisory arm at Lazard , the international investment bank hired in recent days by both Greece and Ukraine to help renegotiate their debts, according to people familiar with the matter. Mr. Pigasse “has been involved in some of the most important sovereign-debt restructurings in the last decade,” said Deborah Zandstra, a sovereign-debt partner at lawyers Clifford Chance LLP. “His appointment by the new Greek administration is a positive step.”

Both assignments are key to Europe’s political and economic health. Ukraine must negotiate with foreign creditors over as much as $20 billion of Eurobond debt. These efforts could be crucial in whether Ukraine is able to negotiate further loans and keep its budget afloat, bolstering an economy ravaged by the conflict with Russian-backed rebels in the east. In Greece, new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has promised to slash the country’s heavy debt burden. But other eurozone leaders have declared that any reduction in the face value of Greek debt would be unacceptable and the Greek finance minister is now proposing to swap debt for new growth-linked bonds. For Lazard, an advisory and asset management firm that listed in New York in 2005, counseling governments has become a steady and growing business.

A team of Lazard bankers, led by Mr. Pigasse, advised Greece in 2012 when it pushed through one of the largest debt restructurings of all time. Lazard has also been very active in Africa, where it has advised Egypt, Mauritania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon and Ivory Coast. Last year it helped Ethiopia with its debut $1 billion sovereign-bond issue. Advising governments is a relatively small part of Lazard’s business, with fees making up just a small fraction of total revenue. But government mandates are particularly prestigious and the work can be lucrative. In March 2012, Greece said it paid Lazard €25 million for its advice over the previous two years. The sovereign-advisory arm, run out of the Paris office, has increased head count by 50% to 30 over the past three years.

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“All their expenses are paid, and they have no capital at risk. This is as sweet as it gets.”

Banker to the Broke: Lazard Advises Greece, Ukraine (Bloomberg)

When the government goes broke, the broke call Lazard Ltd. While Lazard is best known for mergers and acquisitions, the firm has found lucrative work advising governments in two of the world’s current economic trouble spots: Greece and Ukraine.
The roles are in keeping with Lazard’s long – and not always successful – history as a top adviser to cash-strapped governments. Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Ivory Coast: all have turned to Lazard over the years. So did New York City, back in the 1970s. It’s nice work for Lazard, which gets to collect fees no matter how things play out for a government or its creditors. “This is a very high-margin business,” said William Cohan, a former Lazard banker and author of a book on the firm. “All their expenses are paid, and they have no capital at risk. This is as sweet as it gets.”

The Lazard team, led by Paris-based banker Matthieu Pigasse, advised a previous Greek government during the nation’s last major financial crisis, when an exit from the euro currency area loomed as a possibility if talks failed. Last week, the nation’s new government hired Lazard to help again as the country seeks to ease the pressure from a debt load of about €315 billion. Ukraine is also working with Lazard, according to people familiar with the situation. Based officially in Bermuda with major offices in Paris and New York, Lazard faces challenges with both of those assignments. The newly elected Greek government of Alexis Tsipras has pledged to increase wages, halt public-sector layoffs and cancel planned asset sales – all part of a package of structural reforms demanded by creditor states including Germany.

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is weighing plans to trade existing debt for new bonds pegged to economic growth, after a proposal to impose a loss of capital on creditors met opposition. Ukraine, for its part, was struggling to meet debt payments even before what the U.S. and European Union say is a Russian-backed rebellion in its eastern regions began last year. It’s now seeking to avert default after its economy shrank an estimated 7.5% in 2014 amid the fighting. Russia, which annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in March, denies involvement in the conflict. Payments to advisers are determined by the size of the debt reduction and the degree to which creditors participate, and Lazard earned as much as €25 million over two years for previous Greek work, the government said in 2012.

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it’s a pattern, not a design flaw.

Abenomics Leaves Japan’s Poor and Elderly Behind (Bloomberg)

Hiroyuki Kawanishi’s tiny two-room flat in Tokyo may not be much, but it’s home. With Prime Minister Shinzo Abe trimming benefits for the poor as he increases spending on the military and cuts corporate taxes, it may not be for long. “If the housing subsidy is cut, I’ll lose my apartment,” said Kawanishi, 42, who was born with cerebral palsy and can barely fit his wheelchair next to the single bed in his 40 square-meter (400 square-foot) flat. “I’ll have to go to a government nursing home with no freedom. There’ll be no point in living.” Since Abe took office two years ago, aggressive monetary easing devalued the yen, bolstering earnings at big companies and lifting the stock market 70%.

It’s been good for exporters and those who own shares and property, but not so good for those without assets. For them, Abenomics means higher prices and dwindling government support. “If inflation accelerates further under Abe’s policies, inequality will widen,” said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. “The socially vulnerable and low-income classes will be worst affected and a cut in livelihood subsidies deals them a double punch.” Abe is facing a problem that is dogging developed economies from the U.S. to Australia: how to sustain a recovery without widening the wealth gap. More than 30% of households in Japan have no financial assets, up from 26% in 2012, according to the Central Council for Financial Services Information in Tokyo.

Abe’s government is seeking to lower subsidies for housing and winter heating allowances for the poor as part of a three-step program that began in August 2013 to trim welfare costs, including for food, clothes and fuel. The move is part of the government’s efforts to contain rising social security costs as Japan’s aging society pushes up medical and other welfare expenses. The world’s third-largest economy is also the biggest debtor among the advanced economies, with borrowings projected by the International Monetary Fund to swell to more than 245% of gross domestic product in 2015.

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Every single currency is under threat.

Is Denmark Facing A Speculative Attack? (CNBC)

Denmark’s central bank is reaching for bigger bazookas to battle the speculators betting it will be forced to abandon its currency’s peg to the euro. “They’ve thrown the proverbial policy toolkit at defending the euro-Danish peg,” Kamal Sharma, a foreign currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told CNBC Thursday. “They will continue to intervene with the possibility of further rate cuts, even the tail risk of the recalibration of the trading range.” Bets that the krone will rise are building. Some of the flows have headed for Denmark’s stock market, with Danish-focused mutual funds and exchange-traded fund (ETFs) seeing $230 million in inflows over the past six weeks, according to data from Jefferies.

Barclays analysts called it “the slings and arrows of market speculation.” It bears similarities to the speculative attacks that led Thailand to abandon the baht’s peg to the dollar in the late 1990s — the “Lehman-moment” of the Asian Financial Crisis. Denmark’s peg is set for the krone to trade within a 2.25% band of 7.46038 to the euro, although it has been holding it in a 0.5% band. Although the euro has recovered somewhat this week, it has fallen around 17% against the greenback since the beginning of 2014.

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“The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is acting as if someone slipped tranquilizers into their drink 18 months ago..”

Australia Central Bank Acting Like It ‘Just Woke Up’ (CNBC)

Australia’s record low interest rates are about to head way lower, analysts tell CNBC, as the country’s central bank scrambles to play catch up in the race to the bottom for borrowing costs. “The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is acting as if someone slipped tranquilizers into their drink 18 months ago. They’ve just woken up and they’re looking [at] the world around them and they’re only gradually coming to terms with what they can see,” said Michael Every, head of Asia-Pacific markets research at Rabobank. The RBA chopped interest rates by a quarter-point on Tuesday to a historic low of 2.25%, surprising most economists but not the debt markets, which had priced in a 60% chance of a cut.

The central bank gave no hint that further easing is imminent, minutes from the meeting released Friday showed, although it did revise its 2015 growth forecast downwards to 1.75-2.75%, from 2-3% previously. Its less-than-dovish tone gave the Australia dollar a fillip against the U.S. dollar, rising to $0.7860. But Every believes the RBA will have no choice but the bring rates even lower, with central banks the world over going on a monetary loosening spree. China, India, Russia and Canada are just a handful of major economies that have surprised with rate cuts this year. This alongside Switzerland’s shock decision to remove its currency floor while moving interest rates into negative territory, and European Central Bank’s widely expected decision to finally embark on a bond-purchasing program, or QE, to revive the euro zone economy.

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He should just leave.

Oz PM Abbott Fights for Political Life as Colleagues Seek Ouster (Bloomberg)

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said he will fight to stop party lawmakers ousting him next week after just 17 months in power, as two colleagues sought a leadership ballot. vAbbott, 57, said he and his deputy, Julie Bishop, will try to defeat the so-called spill motion when their Liberal Party meets in Canberra Feb. 10. Under party rules, a leadership ballot will go ahead if more than half of the 102 Liberal lawmakers back the motion. “We will stand together in urging the party-room to defeat this particular motion,” Abbott told reporters in Sydney. The party should back “stability and the team that the people voted for at the election.” Less than half-way through his first term, Abbott is struggling to quell disquiet over his leadership amid a voter backlash against his spending cuts and a decision to bestow a knighthood on Queen Elizabeth II’s husband, Prince Philip.

Some senior Cabinet ministers have rallied around the prime minister, saying he should be given time to reverse the government’s flagging poll ratings and reset his policy agenda. “The question now is whether or not there is a willing challenger” to Abbott, said Haydon Manning, a politics professor at Flinders University in Adelaide. “Even if Abbott keeps the leadership, he’ll still be aware he’s just buying himself time to turn around the performance of the government.” Lawmaker Luke Simpkins sent an e-mail to party colleagues earlier Friday saying they must bring concerns about Abbott’s leadership to a head by holding a vote for a spill. His motion was seconded by Don Randall. Nobody has yet said they will challenge Abbott for the leadership. Both Bishop, 58, and Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull, 60, tipped by local media as potential successors to Abbott, have said they support the prime minister.

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Curious deal.

Venezuela Oil Deal Hits Caribbean Hard (CNBC)

For many countries, cheaper oil is helping boost economic growth. But if you’re a struggling Caribbean nation dependent on energy subsidies from Venezuela, the crash in oil prices is not welcome news. Venezuela’s heavily oil-dependent economy has been sent into a tailspin by the collapse of crude prices, which has starved the country for cash to pay for domestic energy subsidies and imported goods. With little foreign currency reserves left, the economy is contracting, inflation has soared and the government has resorted to rationing food and other consumer staples. And with no rebound in oil prices in sight, the country’s future is looking bleak.

To finance its budget, the government needs oil prices above $140 a barrel, putting generous subsidies for education, food and housing at risk of deep cutbacks.It has also jeopardized generous financing terms extended to more than a dozen Caribbean nations that rely on Venezuelan oil to fuel their own economies. Venezuela launched the so-called Petrocaribe accord in 2005 as it sought to become a low-cost energy provider and win political favor among small island economies heavily reliant on oil imports. But as oil prices have fallen, Venezuela’s energy blessing has turned to something of a curse. Under the terms of the Petrocaribe agreement, the drop in oil prices has—paradoxically—raised members’ oil import costs.

That’s because, as crude prices fall, they lose access to extremely generous financing terms that amount to subsidies. When oil was over $100 a barrel, Petrocaribe member countries paid just 40% of the upfront costs, and Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, covered the rest of the expense with a low interest rate loan payable over 25 years. Some have also paid their oil bills with bartered agricultural products or services. The extra cash from deferred payments helped some countries finance infrastructure projects and other spending programs. But those finance terms become much less generous as the price of oil falls, forcing member countries to pay more upfront, with payment in full when prices fall below $40 a barrel, according to RBC economist Marla Dukharan.

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Funny headline, but not entirely true.

John Kerry Rated Worst Secretary Of State In 50 Years (MarketWatch)

A new survey of scholars ranks Secretary of State John Kerry dead last in terms of effectiveness in that job over the past 50 years. Henry Kissinger was ranked the most effective secretary of state with 32.2% of the vote. He was followed by James Baker, Madeleine Albright, and Hillary Clinton, as judged by a survey of 1,615 international relations scholars. Kerry received only 0.3% of the votes cast. According to the survey, the three most important foreign-policy issues facing the U.S. are climate change, armed conflict in the Middle East and failed or failing states. The survey of 1,375 U.S. colleges and universities was conducted by Foreign Policy magazine and the College of William & Mary.

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Jan 192015
 
 January 19, 2015  Posted by at 11:13 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »


DPC The Arcade, Cleveland 1901

1% Own More Wealth Than The Other 99% (Guardian)
Shanghai Rally Faces Stress Test After 7.7% Market Tumble (FT)
Will China Be The Next Forex Peg To Break? (MarketWatch)
China Brokers Fall as Regulator Curbs New Margin Accounts (Bloomberg)
China Brokers Face Double-Whammy on 3-Month Margin Finance Ban (Bloomberg)
China December New Home Prices Slip, Somber Omen For 2014 GDP (Reuters)
Kaisa on Brink of Dollar Default Spooks World’s Money Managers (Bloomberg)
Kaisa Stress Spreads to Loans as Nomura Sees Big Selling Push (Bloomberg)
China Dream Ends for Handan as Steel Slump Spurs Property Losses (Bloomberg)
ECB’s Nowotny: Deflation To Have Dangerous Political, Social Impact (Reuters)
Bank Losses From Swiss Currency Surprise Seen Mounting (Bloomberg)
Switzerland Could Act on Currency Again, Central Banker Says (WSJ)
The Next Victim Of Crashing Oil Prices: US Housing (Zero Hedge)
OPEC’s Future Reflected in Mining Slump as Oil Price Pummeled (Bloomberg)
Oil Boss Says More Job Cuts Ahead (WSJ)
BOJ Puts Japan Bond Yields On Road To Nowhere (CNBC)
Banks Battle Speculation Denmark’s Euro Peg at Risk (Bloomberg)
Greece’s Syriza Party Widens Lead Over Ruling Conservatives (Reuters)
Kremlin Links Kiev’s ‘Massive Fire’ Order To Upcoming EU Council Meeting (RT)
Snowden: Hackers Stole 50 Terabytes Of Joint Strike Fighter Blueprints (RT)
Overuse of Nitrogen and Phosphorous Could Bring About Devastation of Earth (DSJ)

“We see a concentration of wealth capturing power and leaving ordinary people voiceless and their interests uncared for.”

Half of Global Wealth Held By The 1% (Guardian)

Billionaires and politicians gathering in Switzerland this week will come under pressure to tackle rising inequality after a study found that – on current trends – by next year, 1% of the world’s population will own more wealth than the other 99%. Ahead of this week’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in the ski resort of Davos, the anti-poverty charity Oxfam said it would use its high-profile role at the gathering to demand urgent action to narrow the gap between rich and poor. The charity’s research, published today, shows that the share of the world’s wealth owned by the best-off 1% has increased from 44% in 2009 to 48% in 2014, while the least well-off 80% currently own just 5.5%. Oxfam added that on current trends the richest 1% would own more than 50% of the world’s wealth by 2016.

Winnie Byanyima, executive director of Oxfam International and one of the six co-chairs at this year’s WEF, said the increased concentration of wealth seen since the deep recession of 2008-09 was dangerous and needed to be reversed. In an interview with the Guardian, Byanyima said: “We want to bring a message from the people in the poorest countries in the world to the forum of the most powerful business and political leaders. “The message is that rising inequality is dangerous. It’s bad for growth and it’s bad for governance. We see a concentration of wealth capturing power and leaving ordinary people voiceless and their interests uncared for.”

Oxfam made headlines at Davos last year with a study showing that the 85 richest people on the planet have the same wealth as the poorest 50% (3.5 billion people). The charity said this year that the comparison was now even more stark, with just 80 people owning the same amount of wealth as more than 3.5 billion people, down from 388 in 2010. Byanyima said: “Do we really want to live in a world where the 1% own more than the rest of us combined? The scale of global inequality is quite simply staggering and despite the issues shooting up the global agenda, the gap between the richest and the rest is widening fast.”

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“Almost no investors believe this is the end of the party ..”

Shanghai Rally Faces Stress Test After 7.7% Market Tumble (FT)

Fevered rallies and dramatic falls go with the territory of investing in mainland China. But even by Shanghai’s wild standards, Monday’s plunge was one to remember. By the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite had tumbled 7.7% — its biggest fall in five years — erasing all its January gains. Having been the best performing market in the world last year, China’s volatile streak has been swiftly exposed once more. The immediate trigger was a move by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to clamp down on margin lending at the big brokerages, which all saw their stocks down by the daily limit of 10%. Borrowing to invest in equities has been a key driver of Shanghai’s charge upwards, with margin financing almost tripling between June and December to hit Rmb767bn ($124bn) last week.

Hong Hao, strategist at Bank of Communications, described the curb on margin trading as a “nasty surprise”, and one that could send the market into a tailspin. “With less incremental liquidity flow into stocks and damped sentiment, the market will correct in the near term, and the move can be violent,” Mr Hong wrote in a note to clients. Separately on Friday, the banking regulator issued draft rules that would limit the use of intercompany loans. Loans between non-financial companies, in which a bank serves as intermediary, have exploded in recent years, with new loans hitting Rmb2.5tn in 2014. Local media reports say some of those funds have flowed into the stock market. The question now facing investors is whether the market can bounce back quickly without more credit-fuelled speculation.

Many remain bullish, seeing the new regulations as simply a stress test for the market. Jin Mi at China Merchants Securities, a top 10 brokerage by assets, said the CSRC was sending “a warning to the market against excessive optimism”. “Almost no investors believe this is the end of the party,” he wrote in a report. Many analysts believe Shanghai’s bull run is a government-induced phenomenon, designed to give Chinese savers an alternative to the wobbly housing market or risky shadow banking products . That has drawn in millions of retail punters, who have been opening new trading accounts at a record pace. “The government has been urging people to buy stocks, which gives people a sense of a put on the market,” says David Cui, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

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Deflation is a real threat in China now. The dollar peg makes that a lot worse.

Will China Be The Next Forex Peg To Break? (MarketWatch)

The surprise move by Switzerland to scrap its currency ceiling against the euro last week is a reminder there can be unexpected collateral damage from central banks waging currency wars. As markets digest last week’s turmoil, expect focus to turn to other fault lines on the global currency map. Here China stands out, as like the Swiss, it runs an implicit currency peg that is becoming increasingly painful to maintain. Due to its longstanding crawling peg to the U.S. dollar, the yuan has increasingly found itself pulled higher against just about every major currency. The world’s largest exporter has already had to endure two years of aggressive yen devaluation since the introduction of Abenomics and its accompanying quantitative easing. Now comes a new front, as the ECB looks ready to green-light its own QE next week. The move by Switzerland also means the Swiss National Bank ceases its purchases of euros needed to maintain its peg, again meaning the euro will all but certainly head lower.

Further currency strength is likely to be distinctly unwelcome for the Chinese economy. Later this week, gross domestic product figures for 2014 are widely expected to show growth at its slowest pace in 24 years if, as some predict, the government’s 7.5% annual growth target is missed. This comes at the same time that the economy is flirting with outright deflation and amid a new trend of foreign capital exiting China. Last week’s currency ructions present a new headwind to growth as exports will be harder to sell across Europe, China’s second biggest market after the U.S. The other danger looming for China is that a strong currency exacerbates deflationary forces. Producer prices have been falling for almost three years, and the plunge in crude-oil prices adds a further disinflationary bent. The property market looks as if it could also push prices decisively lower. Prices of new homes in big cities fell 4.3% in December from a year earlier, according to new government data released over the weekend.

The difficulty for Beijing is that these external movements in currencies are outside its control. If moves to depreciate the euro trigger another round of competitive deprecations, just how much more yuan appreciation can China withstand? While the policy actions of both the Swiss and European central banks last week appear quite different, they share a common feature: Both acted with reluctance only when the pain became too much to bear. The reason deflation is public enemy No. 1 for central banks is that debt becomes much harder to service and can stall growth and employment as consumers put off purchases and business put off investment. China certainly has debt levels that would make deflation worrisome. Total debt levels are now estimated to be in excess of 250% of GDP. Lower-than-expected bank loan growth in December also suggests demand in the economy is already weak.

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Beijing had no choice but to curb the mad influx in stocks.

China Brokers Fall as Regulator Curbs New Margin Accounts (Bloomberg)

Chinese brokerages’ shares plunged after the securities regulator suspended three of the biggest firms from adding margin-finance and securities lending accounts for three months following rule violations. Citic Securities, the nation’s biggest broker, fell 14% as of 9:35 a.m. in Hong Kong. Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan Securities were among others whose shares tumbled. The trio were suspended after letting customers delay repaying financing for longer than they were supposed to, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said on its microblog on Jan. 16, without giving more details. Regulators may have been concerned that stock gains, partly driven by margin financing, are too rapid, according to Hao Hong, a strategist at Bocom International in Hong Kong.

The move came after the Shanghai Composite Index surged 63% in six months and brokers including Citic and Haitong announced plans to raise more money to lend to clients.“Brokerage shares are likely to get hit,” Hong said before the market opened today. “After all, margin financing is one of the reasons for people to be bullish on brokerage stocks, and these stocks have run particularly hard.” Citic and Haitong, the nation’s biggest brokers by market value, announced plans for share sales that will help fund an expansion of businesses including margin financing. Those two and Guotai Junan were the three largest by assets in a 2013 ranking by the Securities Association of China. “The regulators are doing this to cool down the stock market,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core-Pacific Yamaichi in Hong Kong. “Stock market sentiment will definitely go down.”

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But did Beijing oversee what the effect would be? How about when the 3-month ban is over, what will happen then?

China Brokers Face Double-Whammy on 3-Month Margin Finance Ban (Bloomberg)

China’s biggest brokerages are getting squeezed on two fronts as regulators curb loans to equity traders. Not only does the three-month ban on new margin-trading accounts at Citic Securities and Haitong Securities reduce their potential earnings from lending to clients, it also curbs one of the biggest buyers of the firms’ own shares: margin traders. The brokerages are among the top five holdings of investors using borrowed money, according to Shao Ziqin, analyst for Citic, who cited calculations as of Jan. 15. Of the top 20, six were brokers and seven were banks. They all plunged today as the Shanghai Composite Index headed for the biggest drop since 2008. “Bank and brokerage stocks will definitely be the hardest hit since leveraged funds helped to push up their share prices in the first place,” said Zhang Yanbing, an analyst at Zheshang Securities in Shanghai.

Investors borrowed 32.6 billion yuan ($5.2 billion) to buy Citic Securities shares as of Jan. 15, accounting for about 3% of outstanding margin loans, according to Shao, who cited Wind Information data. Haitong purchases had attracted 14.8 billion yuan of margin loans. The total amount of shares purchased on margin has surged more than tenfold in the past two years to a record 1.1 trillion yuan, or about 3.5% of the nation’s market capitalization. In a margin trade, investors use their own money for just a portion of their stock purchase, borrowing the rest from a broker. The loans are backed by the investors’ equity holdings, meaning that they may be forced to sell when prices fall to repay their debt. Citic Securities said in an e-mail that its operations remain unchanged, including a plan to sell shares via a private placement in Hong Kong.

While shares of both brokerages tumbled by the daily 10% limit in mainland trading today, they’re still sitting on gains of more than 100% in the past 12 months. That compares with a 56% increase in the Shanghai Composite. Brokerage shares will remain under pressure in the next few days, according to Ryan Huang at IG Ltd. Regulators are concerned the world-beating gains in the country’s equity market have been too fast, he said. Citic and Haitong let customers delay repaying financing for longer than they were supposed to, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said on its microblog Friday, without giving more details. Guotai Junan Securities was also suspended from adding margin accounts, while the regulator punished nine other securities companies for offenses including allowing unqualified investors to open margin finance and securities lending accounts.

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China real estate is in deep doodoo.

China December New Home Prices Slip, Somber Omen For 2014 GDP (Reuters)

China’s new home prices fell significantly in December for a fourth straight month even as year-end sales volumes surged – a somber omen for fourth-quarter 2014 economic growth data due out later in the week. Sunday’s gloomy National Burea of Statistics’ data foreshadowed weak economic figures set for Tuesday, with expansion expected to slow to 7.2%, the weakest since the depths of the global financial crisis. Falling property prices are likely to keep pressure on policymakers to head off a sharper slowdown this year. The expected slowdown in growth of the world’s second-largest economy, from 7.3% in the July-September quarter, means the full-year figure would undershoot the government’s 7.5% target and mark the weakest expansion in 24 years.

If the GDP data proves worse than expected, some analysts say the People’s Bank of China could cut interest rates further or lower reserve requirement ratios (RRR) for all banks. A reserve ratio cut would give banks greater capacity to lend, but many market watchers question if they would be willing to increase their exposure as economic conditions deteriorate. With real-estate investment accounting for about 15% of China’s GDP growth, a 9% decline in new floor space under construction in the first 11 months of 2014 could take a heavy toll. “We expect China’s GDP growth to slow further in 2015 to 6.8%, as the ongoing property downturn leads to further weakness in construction and industrial production, and related investment,” Tao Wang, China economist at UBS, wrote in a note.

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“.. at risk of being the first Chinese real estate company to default on its dollar-denominated bonds.”

Kaisa on Brink of Dollar Default Spooks World’s Money Managers (Bloomberg)

As Europe grapples with terrorism and Switzerland scrapped a currency peg, the troubles of a Chinese developer that’s never reached $3 billion in market value became something investors from New York to London couldn’t ignore. A missed $23 million interest payment by Kaisa earlier this month puts it at risk of being the first Chinese real estate company to default on its dollar-denominated bonds. That may signal deeper risks for China’s already fragile and corruption-prone property market, which according to World Bank estimates accounts for about 16% of economic growth. Chinese companies comprised 62% of all U.S. dollar bond sales in the Asia-Pacific region ex Japan last year, issuing $244.4 billion of the $392.5 billion total, Bloomberg data show.

BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, owned Kaisa’s 8.875% securities due 2018 and the ones the subject of the missed coupon payment, the 10.25% 2020s, its latest filing on Jan. 14 shows. Funds managed by JPMorgan, Fidelity and ING also held some of Kaisa’s debt at the end of October, according to filings. Kaisa’s woes began late last year when the government in Shenzhen, less than 15 from Hong Kong, blocked approvals of its property sales and new projects in the city. It’s also being probed over alleged links to Jiang Zunyu, the former security chief of Shenzhen who was taken into custody as part of a graft probe, two people familiar with the matter said last week, asking not to be named because the connection hasn’t been made public.

Kaisa missed an interest payment due Jan. 8 on its $500 million of 2020 bonds. The notes were sold to investors at par, or 100 cents on the dollar, in January 2013. In December, when some of Kaisa’s projects were blocked and key executives quit, the debentures lost 40.1%. They continued to fall in January, slumping to 29.901 cents on the dollar on Jan. 7, a record low, however have since recovered to trade at about 34.6 cents. Concern is mounting that increasing financial stress among builders could spill over into a broader credit crisis in China. New-home prices fell in 65 of the 70 cities monitored in December and were unchanged in four, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement yesterday. Shenzhen recorded higher prices, the first city to see an increase in four months.

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“Loan investors are shunning Chinese property developers amid speculation the government will target more builders after pledging to step up anti-graft probes.”

Kaisa Stress Spreads to Loans as Nomura Sees Big Selling Push (Bloomberg)

Loan investors are shunning Chinese property developers amid speculation the government will target more builders after pledging to step up anti-graft probes. Loans from Shimao Property, Country Garden, Evergrande Real Estate and Greentown China, maturing within four years are at levels that indicate impending stress, according to offered prices compiled by Bloomberg from two traders. President Xi Jinping last week said there’ll be no let-up in his “fierce and enduring” battle against corruption, which has already embroiled thousands of senior officials. Kaisa, a homebuilder based in the southern city of Shenzhen, roiled credit markets after founder Kwok Ying Shing quit as chairman Dec. 31, triggering a loan default.

“There’s selling pressure coming from people who want to trim their portfolios to better manage any outsized concentration in developers,” Andrew Tan at Nomura in Singapore, said by phone on Jan. 15. “I haven’t seen such a big motivation to sell in Chinese property loans for some time.” Shimao’s June 2018 loans are currently pricing at about 90 cents on the dollar, with offers at between 85 and 95 cents, compared with 92 cents in December and 96 cents in November, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Country Garden’s December 2018 loans were also offered in the 88 cents to 95 cents range, versus about 95 cents a month ago, two traders said. Offers on Evergrande’s first-lien loan and Greentown’s loan signaled a 5-cent weakening from their levels in December, they said. While China’s banking system outlook is stable, asset quality metrics will likely deteriorate in the coming 12 to 18 months, in line with slower economic growth, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report today. Problem loans from the real-estate sector may start increasing from a small base if the property market downturn continues, it said.

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Set to be a classic line all over: “It was just like a dream: I had everything but when I woke up it was all gone.”

China Dream Ends for Handan as Steel Slump Spurs Property Losses (Bloomberg)

Five months ago, Hao Liwei was living the good life, funded by a 36% annual return on a property investment. Then her nightmare began. Interest payments ceased in August and attempts to recover her money failed. Her home town, the steel-production city of Handan, 450 kilometers (280 miles) southwest of Beijing in Hebei province, was grappling with plunging demand for steel and plummeting prices. Economic growth slumped to 5.5% in the first nine months of last year, from 10.5% in 2012. “The sky collapsed and I thought of killing myself,” said Hao, 40, now a taxi driver. “It was just like a dream: I had everything but when I woke up it was all gone.”

Hao is among the collateral damage as China reins in years of debt-fueled investment-led growth that’s evoked comparisons to the period preceding Japan’s lost decades. As policy shifts China toward greater consumption and innovation-led growth, Handan’s reliance on the steel industry for expansion has left it among cities feeling the brunt of adjustment pain. “Steel towns have been decimated many times before, in Pittsburgh, in the U.K., in France, in Belgium,” said Junheng Li, founder of researcher JL Warren Capital in New York. “Handan has a choice: cling to steel and suffer an inexorable decline or invest in the future, wherever it may be.”

Handan’s woes deepened in September, when local authorities sent work teams into 13 property developers to contain risks after a failure to repay funds raised illegally from the public sparked panic, Xinhua News Agency reported. Thirty-two homebuilders had raised a combined 9.3 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) in illegal fundraising or high-return deposits, causing police to detain 94 people, Xinhua reported. In freezing, pollution-darkened air that exceeded the World Health Organization’s safety limit by more than 14 times, Wu Ren waited last week outside a property development in downtown Handan in hope of recovering funds he invested in a developer named Century in Gold. Wu, in his mid-40s, said he invested 500,000 yuan for a return exceeding 18% a year. The developer’s boss disappeared in August, he said.

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“That would be linked to massive negative effects on the labor market.”

ECB’s Nowotny: Deflation To Have Dangerous Political, Social Impact (Reuters)

The European Central Bank has limited options left to counter long-term stagnation in the euro zone, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny was quoted as saying in an interview published on Monday. The ECB faces a crucial test of its resolve to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro when it decides this week on buying government bonds to combat deflation and revive the economy. Asked to what extent the ECB’s arsenal was exhausted and what it could still do, Nowotny told Austrian newspaper Tiroler Tageszeitung: “Our possibilities are limited.” He did not elaborate. Inflation in the euro zone is well below the ECB’s mid-term target of just under 2% but Nowotny said he did not expect a protracted period of deflation.

“We had negative inflation rates in December and perhaps we will have them in the first months of this year, but I do not believe we can expect deflation for 2015 overall. But the margin of safety has become smaller,” he was quoted as saying in the interview. Asked if it would be difficult to pull out of deflation if it set in, he said yes. “We see the danger from Japan, which for two decades has low growth, low inflation and low interest rates, thus long-term stagnation. For Europe, lasting low growth is not a (desired) prospect,” he said. “That would be linked to massive negative effects on the labor market. And it would certainly have dangerous political and social impact.”

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This will continue for a while yet.

Bank Losses From Swiss Currency Surprise Seen Mounting (Bloomberg)

The $400 million of cumulative losses that Citigroup, Deutsche Bankand Barclays are said to have suffered from the Swiss central bank’s decision to end the cap on the franc may be followed by others in coming days. “The losses will be in the billions — they are still being tallied,” said Mark T. Williams at Boston University. “They will range from large banks, brokers, hedge funds, mutual funds to currency speculators. There will be ripple effects throughout the financial system.” Citigroup, the world’s biggest currencies dealer, lost more than $150 million at its trading desks, a person with knowledge of the matter said last week. Deutsche Bank lost $150 million and Barclays less than $100 million, people familiar with the events said..

Marko Dimitrijevic, the hedge fund manager who survived at least five emerging-market debt crises, is closing his largest hedge fund, which had about $830 million in assets at the end of the year, after losing virtually all its money on the SNB’s decision… FXCM, the largest U.S. retail foreign-exchange broker, got a $300 million cash infusion from Leucadia after warning that client losses threatened its compliance with capital rules. FXCM, which handled $1.4 trillion of trades for individuals last quarter, said it was owed $225 million by customers. Shorting the franc was a popular trade and most firms would leverage their positions some 20 times or more, said Williams, who consults for hedge funds.

With such leverage a 5% move against the position wipes out all the value, yet the trades were seen as relatively low-risk by models used by financial institutions because volatility of the franc was reduced by the SNB’s cap, he said. Citigroup had reported an average total trading value-at-risk, a measure of how much the company could lose in trading in one day, of $105 million in the third quarter, of which $32 million was attributed to foreign-exchange risks. Deutsche Bank’s so-called stressed value-at-risk, which measures possible daily losses in market turmoil, averaged 109 million euros ($126 million) in the first nine months, with 27 million euros related to foreign-exchange risks.

Swiss banks, which haven’t announced any losses so far, will probably also suffer in the longer term, said Arturo Bris, a professor at IMD business school. “The negative effects for the Swiss banks come in two ways,” Bris said. “First, it will reduce the flow of assets from the outside and will encourage the exit of Swiss money to other countries. Secondly, they will be hurt by the negative impact on the Swiss economy.” Pain from wrong-way bets may not be limited to just the financial industry. “We’re just hearing about financial institutions now,” Philip Guarco at JPMorgan Private Bank, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Remember what happened back in 2009, when the dollar rallied? You actually had major corporates in Mexico and Brazil, where the treasury departments were taking positions in FX. So we haven’t heard the end of it yet.”

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“Mr. Jordan said the franc remains “greatly overvalued.”

Switzerland Could Act on Currency Again, Central Banker Says (WSJ)

The Swiss central bank is ready to intervene in the currency markets again to weaken the franc if necessary, the bank’s head said, just two days after the removal of a cap on the franc triggered a surge in the currency’s value. Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said the central bank was forced to scrap its policy of keeping minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs a euro due to divergent economic developments and mounting risk from its euro-buying operations. The bank will continue to monitor the situation and act if necessary, Mr. Jordan said in an interview with Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung.

“We have said goodbye to the minimum exchange rate,” Mr. Jordan said in the interview published Saturday. “But we will continue to consider the exchange-rate situation in our decisions and intervene in the foreign-exchange market if necessary.” The SNB’s surprise decision on Thursday to ax the minimum exchange rate roiled markets and caused the Swiss franc to gain around 30% at one stage before settling 15% higher against the euro to trade near one Swiss franc to the euro, from around 1.20 before the announcement. The Swiss stock market swooned and shares in companies such as food giant Nestlé and pharmaceuticals maker Novartis had billions wiped from their values as shareholders sought to cash in on the sudden appreciation of the currency.

Stocks in some Swiss companies including watchmaker Swatch slumped as analysts reduced their sales and profit forecasts as a result of the franc’s rise. The higher value of the Swiss franc reduces the value of sales made in the eurozone, which accounts for more than half of its exports. The minimum exchange rate had been in place since September 2011 and was intended to head off deflation and protect the competitiveness of Swiss companies. Mr. Jordan said the franc remains “greatly overvalued.” He said he expects negative interest rates introduced by the SNB to make the franc less attractive, but ruled out introducing capital controls to further weaken demand for the currency.

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“.. non-residential construction and specifically physical structures, which is where roughly 90% of energy capex is..”

The Next Victim Of Crashing Oil Prices: US Housing (Zero Hedge)

While a record amount of ink has been spilled praising the benefits of plunging crude price on the US consumer, so far this has manifested merely in soaring consumer confidence, if not in an actual boost to retail sales. In fact, as the Census Bureau reported last week, December retail sales were the biggest disappointment and suffered the steepest monthly drop since the polar vortex.

It appears that instead of doing what so many economists thought, and immediately using their “savings” to boost discretionary income, households are either i) saving the lower gas price windfall (and considering the unprecedented savings rate revision gimmick used by the US Department of Commerce to boost Q3 GDP to 5.0% this is completely understandable), or ii) as we explained some time ago, instead of spending on discretionary purchases, households are forced to spend more on far less pleasant, if just as GDP-boosting staples, such as soaring health insurance premiums courtesy of Obamacare (those who benefit from Obamacare most likely don’t have any work commute-related expenditures in the first place). Less has been written about the adverse side-effects of plunging oil, even though by now even the most “undisputed” permabulls have been forced to admit that the imminent collapse in capital spending is truly “unprecedented”, a phrase Goldman uses in the chart below.

So what does plunging CapEx actually mean for the economy, aside from a substantial haircut to 2015 GDP, and what other areas of the economy will be affected by the Saudi Arabian scorched earth war on the US shale industry? First, we look at the impact of plunging crude on non-residential construction and specifically physical structures, which is where roughly 90% of energy capex is — namely outlays for exploration and wells. Spending there tracked an annualized rate of $140bn in the first three quarters of 2014, a sum that accounts for a whopping 30% of total non-residential private fixed investment in structures, or about a 1% of GDP. So what about residential construction?

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Coal, iron ore output still rises and prices dive.

OPEC’s Future Reflected in Mining Slump as Oil Price Pummeled (Bloomberg)

Oil producers reluctant to curb output even as prices tumble to five-and-a-half year lows don’t need to guess what the future holds. They can ask a miner. In coal to iron ore markets, suppliers have raised volumes even as prices slumped, boosting global gluts and jeopardizing profits as the most dominant players seek to maintain revenue and squeeze out higher cost rivals. Prices of thermal coal, used to generate electricity, and metallurgical coal, a key ingredient in steel, have tumbled more than half since 2011 on supply additions and slowing demand in China, the biggest commodities consumer. With OPEC insistent that it won’t curb crude output, and U.S. production rising to its fastest weekly pace in more than 30 years, oil markets may be in line for similar prolonged pain.

“If OPEC every now and again looks over their shoulder at what is happening in other commodities you’d think it would be a warning,” said David Lennox at Fat Prophets. OPEC, which pumps about 40% of the world’s oil, agreed to maintain its production target at 30 million barrels a day at a Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna. The group is wagering that U.S. shale drillers will be first to curb output as prices drop, echoing a strategy played out by the largest miners. “The current prices are not sustainable,” Suhail Al Mazrouei, energy minister of OPEC member the United Arab Emirates said Jan. 14 in Abu Dhabi. “Not for us but for the others.”

Iron ore producers who predicted a swift exit by higher cost suppliers as their commodity entered a bear market last March were caught out as curbs to global output proved slower than anticipated, Nev Power, CEO of Australian iron ore producer Fortescue said in October. Coal exporters, too, have kept increasing supply as prices slid. Global output rose about 3% between 2011 and 2013 as prices declined, according to World Coal Association data. In Australia, the biggest exporter of metallurgical coal, production is forecast to rise again in the year to July, according to the nation’s government. “Oil will have more similarities to both thermal and metallurgical coal,” Morgan Stanley analyst Joel Crane said. “Those prices have been weakening for more than three years now, yet we’ve seen very little in terms of shutdowns.”

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“.. quarterly earnings for his firm that fell 82% on more than $1 billion in charges including those related to downsizing.”

Oil Boss Says More Job Cuts Ahead (WSJ)

Energy companies aren’t finished shedding jobs due to crude oil prices that are half what they were about six months ago, the world’s biggest oil-field-services provider warned soon after disclosing 9,000 job cuts. Paal Kibsgaard, chief executive of Schlumberger, said on Friday U.S. oil producers that focus on shale fields are worse off than rivals elsewhere because of their higher costs. “The new oil prices are clearly going to test the resilience of several North American land producers going forward,” he said, citing “their ability to get financing, their ability to continue to drive efficiencies and reduce costs and their ability to maintain production at current levels.”

Some of the largest U.S. oil-and-gas producers have cut 2015 capital spending budgets by 20% or more. Investment bank Cowen said international firms would cut spending by 20% this year and by another 10% in 2016. Schlumberger, Halliburton and Baker Hughes will need to shrink further as clients demand price cuts and dial back spending on wells, Mr. Kibsgaard said while discussing quarterly earnings for his firm that fell 82% on more than $1 billion in charges including those related to downsizing. The three companies help energy producers drill and frack their wells.

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“Yields have fallen so low that analysts no longer have any historical risk models to fall back on..”

BOJ Puts Japan Bond Yields On Road To Nowhere (CNBC)

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) massive asset purchase program has put government bond yields on a relentless slide into negative territory, and while some analysts insist a U.S. rate hike will reverse the trend later this year, others expect a slide into unchartered territory. “Yields have fallen so low that analysts no longer have any historical risk models to fall back on,” said Shinichi Tamura, Barclays’ Japan bank analyst, noting that rates strategists are going on blind faith that yields will stop falling. Japan’s short-term yields, of less than three years, turned negative last year, and last week the 5-year Japanese government bond (JGB) slipped close to zero several times. As of Monday morning Asian time, the yield was quoted at 0.018%, up from 0.005 basis points after market close on Thursday.

Most worrying, Tamura said, is the flattening of the yield curve with long-term government bond yields also on a relentless downward trend. On Monday morning, the 10-year was quoted at 0.242 basis points — above the historical low of 0.228% hit early last Friday -, and the 30-year is at 1.105%. “Bond investors are uncomfortable with what they see as an abnormal situation,” said Mana Nakazora, chief credit analyst at BNP Paribas. If the current levels hold, the price of new corporate bonds will be benchmarked against negative government bond yields. So, “they can’t see where they are going to secure returns after 2015 and beyond, or when the BOJ will end the current round of quantitative easing and stop buying up JGBs.”

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Let’s see when the euro reaches parity with the dollar.

Banks Battle Speculation Denmark’s Euro Peg at Risk (Bloomberg)

Banks in Scandinavia are joining the Danish government in trying to persuade offshore investors that the Nordic country isn’t about to copy Switzerland and drop its euro peg. SEB, the Nordic region’s largest currency trader, said it’s been fielding calls from hedge funds wondering whether Denmark might be next after the Swiss National Bank shocked markets by exiting a three-year-old euro cap on Jan. 15. Economy Minister Morten Oestergaard a day later sought to silence doubts surrounding Denmark’s currency peg, which he said remains “secure.”

Carl Hammer, chief currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm, says he’s been trying to make clear to callers that it’s “highly unlikely” Denmark will alter its exchange-rate regime. Speculation Denmark will follow the SNB has forced bankers across Scandinavia to provide offshore investors with a crash course in Danish monetary policy. Hedge funds calling SEB, Danske Bank and other Nordic banks have been urged to consider that Denmark’s peg has existed for more than three decades and is backed by the European Central Bank, unlike the SNB’s former system. “Obviously, we think it’s completely unrealistic” that Denmark will abandon its peg, Jan Stoerup Nielsen, an economist at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen, said by phone. “But that doesn’t seem to be stopping the speculation.”

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Not enough yet. Be brave, my Greek friends.

Greece’s Syriza Party Widens Lead Over Ruling Conservatives (Reuters)

Greece’s anti-bailout Syriza party is solidifying its opinion poll lead over the ruling conservatives eight days before the country’s election, a survey on Saturday. The survey by pollster Kapa Research for Sunday’s To Vima newspaper showed the radical leftists’ lead widening to 3.1%age points from 2.6 points in a previous poll earlier in the month. The national vote on Jan. 25 will be closely watched by financial markets, nervous that a Syriza victory might trigger a standoff with Greece’s European Union and IMF lenders and unleash a new financial crisis.

The survey, conducted on Jan. 13-15, showed that Syriza, which is running on a pledge to end austerity policies and renegotiate the country’s debt, would win 31.2% of the vote if the election was held now, versus 28.1% for Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ New Democracy conservatives. The centrist party To Potami (River) ranked third with 5.4%. The leading party must generally receive between 36 and 40% of the vote to win outright, though the exact threshold depends on the share of the vote taken by parties that fail to reach a 3% threshold to enter parliament. The electoral system automatically gives the winning party an extra 50 seats to make it easier to form a government.

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“.. such attempts coupled with the apparent provocation (similar to the situation with the Malaysian Boeing and the incident with a bus in Volnovakha) come, as a rule, on the eve of the European Union and other Western states meetings”

Kremlin Links Kiev’s ‘Massive Fire’ Order To Upcoming EU Council Meeting (RT)

Kiev resumed its military assault in eastern Ukraine on Sunday despite receiving a proposal Thursday night from the Russian president that both sides of the conflict withdraw their heavy artillery, Putin’s press secretary said. “In recent days, Russia has consistently made efforts to mediate the conflict. In particular, on Thursday night, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a written message to Ukrainian President Poroshenko, in which both sides of the conflict were offered a concrete plan for removal of heavy artillery. The letter was received by President of Ukraine on Friday morning,” president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said as cited by RIA Novosti news agency. “The latest developments in Ukraine connected with the renewed shelling of populated areas in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions cause grave alarm and put in jeopardy the peace process based on the Minsk memorandum,” Putin’s letter reads.

Putin suggested the immediate withdrawal of artillery with a caliber more than 10mm to the distance defined by the Minsk agreements.Russia is ready to monitor the fulfillment of these moves jointly with the OSCE, the letter concludes. However, Peskov stressed, the Ukrainian leader rejected the plan without offering alternatives and “moreover started military actions all over again,” resulting in an “absolute degradation of the situation in the southeast of Ukraine.” Russia’s Foreign Ministry accused Kiev of using the ceasefire to “regroup its forces, trying to take a course for further escalation of the conflict with a purpose to ‘settle’ it in a military way.” “We are deeply concerned by the fact that the Ukrainian side continues to increase its military presence in the southeast of the country in violation of the Minsk agreements,” the ministry said in a statement. [..]

Russia has expressed readiness “to use its influence on militia” in southeast Ukraine so they voluntarily agree to withdraw heavy armament from the frontline, so that its geographic coordinates correspond to Kiev’s demands “to avoid more victims among the civilian population.” The Foreign Ministry has linked the deadly attacks in Donetsk and Kiev’s “massive fire” order with the upcoming EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting on January 19. It has noted that “such attempts coupled with the apparent provocation (similar to the situation with the Malaysian Boeing and the incident with a bus in Volnovakha) come, as a rule, on the eve of the European Union and other Western states meetings, which deal with the situation in Ukraine.”

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“The humiliating 2007 incident saved China “25 years of research and development ..” Note: Snowden neither confirms nor denies that China is behind it.

Snowden: Hackers Stole 50 Terabytes Of Joint Strike Fighter Blueprints (RT)

The reported theft by Chinese hackers of blueprints for the US’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter amounted to 50 terabytes of classified information, documents leaked by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden have revealed. The hackers are believed by many US officials to be affiliated with the Chinese government. The humiliating 2007 incident saved China “25 years of research and development,” according to a US military official cited by The Washington Post in a 2013 article covering the breach. Previous media reports said “several terabytes” of data was stolen, but according to the new documents published by the German magazine Der Spiegel last week, the actual amount was far higher, at 50 terabytes –the equivalent of five Libraries of Congress.

The data – reportedly used by China to build their own advanced fighter jets – includes detailed engine schematics and radar design. F-35 blueprints are just a fraction of what Chinese hackers have allegedly stolen from the Pentagon’s data vaults over the years. The reported haul includes some two dozen advanced weapon systems, including the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense System, Littoral Combat Ship designs and emerging railgun technology, a classified report revealed in 2013.

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“It might be possible for human civilization to live outside Holocene conditions, but it’s never been tried before.”

Overuse of Nitrogen and Phosphorous Could Bring About Devastation of Earth (DSJ)

The Earth is on its way to become inhabitable owing to the increased use of artificial fertilizers like phosphorus and nitrogen which are exceeding the planetary boundaries. The fact has been confirmed by the director of the Center for Limnology at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, Professor Stephen Carpenter who also stated that “We’re running up to and beyond the biophysical boundaries that enable human civilization as we know it to exist.” At the beginning of Holocene period, the Earth was a much better place to live owing to the human activities that led to refined developments in social, political and religious aspects. Carpenter commented “Everything important to civilisation took place prior to 1914.”

Some of the best things then included development of agriculture, the rise and fall of the Roman Empire and the Industrial Revolution and following that era the human activities began the destruction of Earth. Prof. Carpenter and his team carried out a research regarding the impacts of carbon-driven global warming, including biodiversity loss and sea level rise. Explaining their findings the researchers stated “We’ve (people) changed nitrogen and phosphorus cycles vastly more than any other element. (The increase) is on the order of 200 to 300%. In contrast, carbon has only been increased 10 to 20% and look at all the uproar that has caused in the climate.” They also highlighted the unnecessary use of artificial fertilizers for boosting agriculture in the US as the land is already rich in nutrients.

Excessive use of fertilizers on a land already rich in nutrients is causing negative impacts and is pushing the civilization beyond safe boundaries. Some countries have land rich in nitrogen and phosphorous while many others have soil lacking these elements and they face difficulty in growing food without artificial fertilizers. Carpenter said “We’ve got certain parts of the world that are over polluted with nitrogen and phosphorus, and others where people don’t even have enough to grow the food they need.” To avoid upsetting the ecosystem, he has advised industrial farmers to cut down the overuse of phosphorus and nitrogen. He added “It might be possible for human civilization to live outside Holocene conditions, but it’s never been tried before. We know civilization can make it in Holocene conditions, so it seems wise to try to maintain them.”

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Jan 132015
 
 January 13, 2015  Posted by at 10:01 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , ,  11 Responses »


Unknown George Daniels Pontiac, Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco 1948

I was thinking about something along the lines of The Center Cannot Hold and Something’s Got To Give earlier, but then I thought there’s no way I haven’t used those titles before. And then it occurred to me that The Automatic Earth started 7 years ago this month. Just looked it up, it was January 22, 2008. Party next week!

Of course Nicole and I had been writing before that on the Oil Drum, who then didn’t want us to write about finance. They claimed we didn’t have the – academic, they were big on academic – credentials, as if that would ever stop me. Economists, the only people with the ‘proper’ credentials, are the last ones anyone should listen to, they engage in goal-seeked analysis only (no worries, Steve, you’re still no. 1 in our blogroll).

So we started The Automatic Earth, where we could write about what we wanted and thought needed to be addressed. In 2005 it may not have seemed important to the energy crowd, but they’ve all since seen that what we insisted on talking about back then was indeed a big event. 2007 brought Bear Stearns, and 2008 gave us Lehman. Not a minor trifle to write about in 2005. Plus, that means we’ve been doing this for 10 years already. No minor trifle either.

Meanwhile, peak oil has moved way back in the line of pressing events, the Oil Drum went so far south it’s out of sight and shale oil has just about everyone believing the peak oil theory was wrong all along. It wasn’t, not for conventional oil, which was all it addressed to begin with, but so things go. The financial casino trumped energy. But now those days seem over.

In January 2012, we were forced to move again, away from the Blogger platform, where the hacking and heckling and spamming had taken on absurd forms, from which Google refused to offer us protection. We made the mistake to move to Joomla, and it took a while to change – again – to WordPress, where we are now.

That last move cost us a lot of readers and – subscription – donors, something we’re still recuperating from today. It makes the work a lot harder, as Nicole’s long absences are testimony to. But that won’t end The Automatic Earth, and at the same time, that’s enough history. In the end, there’s nothing but forward. Best rock ‘n roll line ever, hands down: I Don’t Care About History, ‘Cause That’s Not Where I Wanna Be.

I was thinking today about Yeats’ The Center Cannot Hold when I saw European stock exchanges vs oil prices, and I wondered; are you sure about this, guys? France’s CAC40 and Germany’s DAX were up about 1.5% today, Greece even over 3%. While Europe’s Brent oil standard fell twice as fast as America’s West Texas Intermediate, diminishing the ‘normal’ $5 gap between the two to 50 cents or so. And stocks rise?

There is no way one can keep falling while the other rises. The Center Cannot Hold. I see stories about Texas homebuilders getting hit by the oil price drop, and it’s still very early innings. Sure, the price of oil will go up again at some point, but it’s the very reason it will that we should fear most, whatever it turns out to be.

It could be a war, proxy or not, it could be large scale lay-offs and defaults in the US shale patch, it could be severe civil unrest in one or more OPEC nations. None bode well for us, for the west, for its citizens. And if none of these things happen over the next year, oil prices won’t perform a Lazarus act. Or a phoenix.

That shouldn’t be all that much of a surprise. We’ve been living in cloud cuckoo land ever since the financial crisis we said back in 2005 would come, materialized. We live in a world of spin and propaganda and embellished numbers , and we’ve come to see them as a new normal. It’s the 55% drop of price of oil that is the first sign that central banks don’t control the universe, or the world, or even our own lives.

But, judging by those European exchanges, we’re still not listening, or keeping an eye out. We see signals, but we don’t recognize them, we don’t know what they mean. Like this little tidbit from CNBC:

Here’s Why Oil Is Such A Problem For Corporate Earnings

On December 1st, analysts anticipated that Energy earnings for Q1 2015 would decline 13.8% compared to Q1 2014, according to S&P Capital IQ. As of Monday, analysts expected Energy earnings for Q1 2015 to decline 41.0%. Think about that: in 5 weeks, earnings expectations for the entire Energy group have gone from down 13.8% to down 41.0%.

Q1 earnings for the Energy sector were cut by $7.7 billion from December 1 through today. The S&P 500 as a whole saw a cut of $9.1 billion during the same period. So Energy is $7.7 billion/$9.1 billion = 84% of the decline in the dollar value of the earnings decline we have seen in the past five weeks. See why the market is so focused on oil for the moment?

Methinks the market is not focused nearly enough on oil. Yet. Though numbers like that should be cause for pause. Especially combined with the knowledge that most other numbers, GDP, jobs, you name them, are nothing but shrewd spin jobs. And, lest we forget, that the Fed no longer supplies free lunch. That the Fed has a plan. A plan that will benefit its owner/member banks, not you and me.

In all likelihood, the oil mayhem will start blowing up in proxy territory, perhaps Turkmenistan, perceived as a possible wound to Putin, perhaps Bahrain, where the Saudis have been interfering militarily for quite some time.

Thing is, that whole line about how lower oil prices were going to be a boost for our economies was ignorant from the start. And there’s still plenty people believing just that. That may explain those EU stock exchange gains. That sort of thing all comes from people who don’t understand to what extent oil is pivotal to our societies.

That we would be lost without it. And that dropping its price by 55% and counting will make the machine run a lot less efficiently. Think of what you pay for oil and gas as the grease that keeps the machine running. Not the product itself, but what you pay for it. We just took away a lot of grease. And you know what that does to a machine. When oil drops, so do many people’s wages, and jobs. And then businesses start to close. And we enter deflation. And more businesses close. And more jobs are lost, and more wages squeezed. Ergo: more deflation.

It’s not yet too late, but ask yourself: can the machine run for, like, another year with this diminished amount of grease? Or with even less, what if oil falls to $40, or even $30? Bad for Texas, devastating for Alaska and North Dakota, and terrible for many Middle Eastern nations that have so far been our friends and allies (even if they don’t exactly espouse the ‘values’ we so proudly proclaimed at the #JeSuisCharlie promo events). What if they turn on us? The way ISIS did?

But that’s not our biggest, or most immediate, concern. We’re not in 2008 anymore, when an oil price drop actually helped us crawl out of a tight spot. We’re $50 trillion down the road, and there won’t be another $50 trillion, or another road. For all intents and purposes, we are the center today, and we cannot hold this way.