Sep 092026
 
 September 9, 2026  Posted by at 9:05 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,  33 Responses »


Mondriaan Amaryllis 1910


Massive Escalation: Iran Sends Ballistic Missile Salvo On Jordan Bases (ZH)
In Putin Call, Trump Seeks Swift End To Ukraine War (ZH)
EU Committing ‘Harakiri’ – Lavrov (RT)
Lavrov Says ‘Start Of Real War’ Emerging (ZH)
U.S. Emissary Missions to Russia and Ukraine (CTH)
Socialists Call for “War in the Streets” and the End of Capitalism (Turley)
Making the World Great One Nation at a Time (J.B. Shurk)
Wherefore Art Thou, Christianity? (Paul Craig Roberts)
Generation That Built America Was the Last of Its Kind (Victor Davis Hanson)
The Counterrevolution: Victor Davis Hanson Surveys Trump’s Fall and Rise (Rust)
President Trump Targets Canada Subsidized Bombardier Manufacturing (CTH)

 


 

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2096934391129715076?s=20 https://twitter.com/MAGAVoice/status/2097252592481087687?s=20

 


 


Not ideal. But Iran with nukes is worse.

Massive Escalation: Iran Sends Ballistic Missile Salvo On Jordan Bases (ZH)

State Tasnim reports: Iran has launched missiles at targets in response to US strikes, while unofficial sources cited by Tasnim noted that explosions were heard in Jordan following Iranian missile attacks. The below brief recap shows this new flare-up and tit-for-tat came in rapid succession… Senior US officials to FOX:


“US military has struck targets near Kharg Island and Jask. The targets include Iranian oil tankers. This is part of a larger effort to squeeze Iran economically. The strategy includes sinking and disabling Iranian crude oil tankers. -FOX” How many Patriot interceptor missiles are being plowed through this time? More unverified but widely circulating images out of the region overnight:

https://twitter.com/MoloWarMonitor/status/2097442661141455233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2097442661141455233%7Ctwgr%5Efd1370ed7440d45b27739c1c89f922937bc5fffa%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fhouthis-pummel-southwest-saudi-arabia-ballistic-missiles-yemen-air-ground-war-erupts


Iranian leaders have lately vowed to hit US bases and assets harder in all forthcoming rounds of fighting…

https://twitter.com/MoloWarMonitor/status/2097442661141455233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2097442661141455233%7Ctwgr%5Efd1370ed7440d45b27739c1c89f922937bc5fffa%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fhouthis-pummel-southwest-saudi-arabia-ballistic-missiles-yemen-air-ground-war-erupts


US Attacks Iran Tankers, After American Navy Ships Targeted IRIB reports that US forces attacked a commercial vessel in the coastal waters of Jask City MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS HEARD NEAR KHARG ISLAND ANCHORAGE, A KEY IRANIAN OIL EXPORT HUB; CAUSE, ORIGIN & ANY POTENTIAL DAMAGE REMAIN UNCONFIRMED. – MEHR NEWS AGENCY

US is currently attacking Iranian oil tankers, i24 news reports, citing a US source A small Iranian tanker was targeted by a missile attack from the US army 4 miles from Kharg Island, Tasnim reports.

IRAN LAUNCHED UNDISCLOSED SECOND ATTACK ON US SHIPS ON MONDAY: WSJ. NO AMERICAN SHIPS WERE STRUCK IN THE ATTACKS: WSJ.

Oil Climbs, Brent Near $100
Nothing official has yet to emerge, also amid unconfirmed reporting that Iran’s IRGC Navy has launched anti-ship cruise missiles from Jask toward the Strait of Hormuz. According to breaking Al Jazeera News:

“Several explosions have been heard on Iran’s Kharg Island, according to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency. No official information has been released on the cause or origin of the explosions.”

More from WSJ on the prior Monday attack incident: “No American ships were struck in the attacks, but Iran’s recent attempts to hit American naval assets are raising alarms that the regime is using more sophisticated weapons and could be getting assistance from China or Russia.”

Read more …

“.. & Restoration Of US-Russia Ties..”

Trump wants peace with Putin, as Europe seeks war.

In Putin Call, Trump Seeks Swift End To Ukraine War (ZH)

On Tuesday morning President Trump and his Russian counterpart President Putin held a “positive” phone call regarding finding an end to the Ukraine war, the Kremlin side has stated. Russian president aide Yury Ushakov has been the first to provide a readout, with little revealed from the US side in the immediate aftermath. The phone call was “constructive and frank” and lasted exactly one hour, but remains “strictly confidential.”


Likely the White House will also be equally scant in what information it chooses to release, given the sensitivity of the timing, coming just off the weekend shuttle diplomacy by Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Their rare, direct meeting with Putin on Saturday lasted than three hours, after which they traveled to Ukraine to meet with Zelensky, in what was a much more chummy atmosphere, naturally.

Ushakov in his fresh comments described of that prior meeting, “Overall, the visit of the aforementioned American representatives was assessed positively.” He further said “European narratives about a Russian threat” were discussed in the call – an issue now “being used to justify support for Ukraine and increased European military spending.” The readout indicates, “Putin supported Trump’s commitment to building a constructive Russia–US partnership and emphasized that Russia has no hostile plans toward Europe.”

Perhaps the most important part of the Russian readout is seen in the following: “Trump said he wants a breakthrough on Ukraine during his presidency and stressed that ending the conflict could open the way to a major restoration of Russia–US relations.” The only additional information that the Kremlin aide provided was that Trump and Putin agreed that work through direct contact as well as diplomatic channels would “continue”.

The Witkoff-Kushner trip had come a little under two weeks after CIA Director John Ratcliffe unexpectedly traveled to Moscow and reportedly floated a trilateral summit involving Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. U.S. President Donald Trump told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in a phone call that he wanted a swift end to the war in Ukraine, something that would allow U.S.-Russia ties to be fully restored, the Kremlin said.- Reuters.

The only additional information that the Kremlin aide provided was that Trump and Putin agreed that work through direct contact as well as diplomatic channels would “continue”. The Witkoff-Kushner trip had come a little under two weeks after CIA Director John Ratcliffe unexpectedly traveled to Moscow and reportedly floated a trilateral summit involving Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.

U.S. President Donald Trump told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in a phone call that he wanted a swift end to the war in Ukraine, something that would allow U.S.-Russia ties to be fully restored, the Kremlin said.

Despite the public-facing Washington rhetoric, the Iran quagmire… war… “excursion” has not been going so well as the US seems desperate for a final exit and end to the war. So Trump likely wants a “win” ahead of the November midterm elections, hence the sudden revival of pushing Ukraine talks.

Read more …

“The bloc is making its people suffer while Russia still has plenty of buyers for its energy, the foreign minister has said..”

EU Committing ‘Harakiri’ – Lavrov (RT)

Sergey Lavrov speaks at the MGIMO University in Moscow, on September 7, 2026.

The EU is effectively committing “harakiri” by abandoning Russian energy in an attempt to hurt Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said. Speaking on Monday to students at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Russia’s primary college for diplomats, Lavrov argued that European leaders are making their own voters bear the cost of their policies toward Russia.


The EU has committed to phasing out Russian fossil fuels completely by 2027, having drastically reduced Russian oil and gas imports since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. Energy costs have risen across much of the bloc, with the US-Israeli war on Iran adding further pressure. Germany, once considered the EU’s industrial powerhouse, has been particularly affected. Its economy contracted in both 2023 and 2024 – the first back-to-back annual decline in more than two decades – and is forecast to grow by just 0.5% this year.

“Europe is simply committing harakiri and proudly declaring that its people must suffer… for European values,” Lavrov said, referring to the Japanese ritual suicide also known as seppuku. “Apparently, by ‘European values’ they mean Nazism, burying Nazi criminals with honors, and banning the Russian language, Russian-language education, Russian culture and media, as well as the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church,” he added. Lavrov argued that the EU’s attempt to pressure Moscow has failed to deprive Russia of customers.

“There’s no panic here whatsoever. We’ve always had plenty of buyers,” he said, adding that Russian exporters have shifted toward “those who are more reliable.” “If Europe wants to pay $800-900 per thousand cubic meters for American liquefied natural gas, what can we do about it?” he asked. Russia has increasingly redirected its energy exports toward Asia amid Western sanctions.

Its seaborne crude shipments to China hit a record 1.86 million barrels per day in January, up 46% year-on-year. Russia has also remained India’s largest oil supplier, selling around 2.1 million bpd in August, or 45% of the country’s imports, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler. Lavrov said the shift should not be viewed as a sudden “pivot to the East,” arguing that Russia has long cultivated economic ties in both directions.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who survived an assassination attempt by a pro-Ukraine activist, similarly described the EU as a “suicide ship” in April, accusing Brussels of “ideological blindness and incompetence.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged last month that the loss of cheap energy imports had dealt a major blow to the bloc’s economy. Lavrov argued that the policies demonstrate that European leaders “don’t think about the voters that brought them to power.”

Read more …

Germany next. But not if the AfD can help it..

Lavrov Says ‘Start Of Real War’ Emerging (ZH)

More tit-for-tat between Russia and Germany amid a deepening diplomatic freeze related to the Ukraine war: the Kremlin announced on Monday that it is closing Germany’s consulate in St. Petersburg, with operations ordered to by suspended by September 18. “It was the German authorities who, once again, provoked a new round of escalation in bilateral relations,” the Foreign Ministry stated, charging that Berlin “bears full and complete responsibility” for the consequences.


A prominent German culture center which has long operated on Russian territory, the Goethe-Institut, is also getting the boot across all branches. All of this is a mirror image of the German government’s earlier move to shutter the Russian consulate in Bonn and Russia’s cultural center in Berlin, also as the EU blamed Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism”.

The harsh words and spiraling diplomatic crisis stems from the drone attack incidents at Germany’s Leipzign Airport last month. There were at least two reported incidents, possibly a third. On the night of August 4, an explosives-laden drone was found on the tarmac near a Ukrainian cargo plane.nThis prompted an urgent airport shutdown, as authorities believes saboteurs were seeking to blow up the plane.

On the following day there was another alleged incident, per German media and officials: Authorities discovered a drone fitted with explosives and a detonation mechanism on the evening of August 4 in the security area of Leipzig/Halle Airport between Ukrainian cargo aircraft and believe a second drone may have collided with a DHL aircraft nearby.

Last week, German media reported a third drone, also loaded with explosives, had also been discovered at the airport. German federal prosecutors described the incident as a “serious attack on Germany’s transport and logistics infrastructure.”

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul had said after initial investigations, “The means used — such as the drone configuration, components, explosives and detonation systems — are known to us from other hybrid operations by Russia and its war against Ukraine.”

The strongest words out of Moscow have come from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this weekend. While the US delegation of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were in Russia for a 3-hour meeting with President Putin, he said that a “real war” between Russia and the West is emerging.

He asserted to a Russian state TV reporter: “This is, by and large, the start of a real war. They expelled the consulate general from Bonn. They’re closing the Russian House in Berlin. I remember that before the start of the Second World War… They want war again.”


Added to this is that Western powers are assisting Ukraine with intelligence to help with its long-range drone strikes against Russia, often against oil refineries very far from the front lines, and even more frequently targeting Moscow of late. And in turn, Russia has been ratcheting its own major missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital and other cities, taking aim at ‘decision-making centers’ too. Zelensky has sought to ‘bring to war to Russia’ – but is really risking very severe escalation that might bring NATO powers into more direct war with Russian forces.

Read more …

“Moscow described detailed discussions of major U.S.-Russia economic projects, alongside claims that Bessent is choking off offshore and banking channels funding Ukraine via Europe, the UK, and Canada.”

U.S. Emissary Missions to Russia and Ukraine (CTH)

Susan Kokinda from Promethean Action PAC picks up on the nuance within the comments from Kirill Dmitriev upon the U.S. delegation meeting in Moscow.


Promethean Action – “The Kremlin released rare footage of a high-level meeting between Vladimir Putin and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, followed by their first trip to Kyiv this term and a comparatively restrained response from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, signaling revived U.S. diplomacy on Ukraine. The script argues Putin views the American team as a more trusted broker than European leaders and notes a recent sequence of engagements, including CIA Director Ratcliffe’s public Moscow visit and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s G20 outreach to Russia’s finance minister.

With Kirill Dmitriev present, Moscow described detailed discussions of major U.S.-Russia economic projects, alongside claims that Bessent is choking off offshore and banking channels funding Ukraine via Europe, the UK, and Canada. It then pivots to Argentina’s renewed Malvinas/Falklands push as Trump publicly and reportedly reconsiders automatic U.S. support for British sovereignty, recalling internal U.S. divisions during the 1982 war.”

Read more …

“Figures like Newsom have even campaigned on denouncing capitalism as “not working”..”

Socialists Call for “War in the Streets” and the End of Capitalism (Turley)

“You better get ready for … war.” Across the country, radicals are openly planning for the next stage of their movement, and notably, the Democratic establishment is not part of their plans. Despite the talk of a “Big Tent Party,” socialists are riding high on a surge of support and talking purges and revolution.


In Chicago, radicals gathered for a conference on Marxism during what many view as the heyday of socialism in the United States. The Democratic Socialists of America is now larger and more powerful than at any time in our history. Socialist candidates are winning elections across the country as Democratic establishment figures from Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) to Gov. Gavin Newsom pander to the movement.

Speakers in Chicago used the conference to push supporters to the next stage in the movement, including some openly calling for violence and the end to capitalism.

University of California Santa Barbara History Professor Butch Ware said Democrats “must be destroyed” and urged attendees to be ready for “war in the streets.” Notably, in postings on X, Ware has said that candidates such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed are too restrained and are being pushed by the establishment “to contain radicalism.”

The professor “of Africa and Islam” whose faculty page is appropriately found under “bware” is the latest radical to dismiss the “Big Tent Party” rhetoric of establishment figures like Schumer. He declared, “The Democrats cannot be reasoned with. They must be destroyed.” There is little subtlety in the message, Ware has explained: “You cannot call yourself a revolutionary and not be talking about training with weapons.”

It is another example of the delusion that establishment Democrats have that they will be able to use these radicals to destroy their political enemies but not themselves. After one election victory, socialists chanted “You’re Next!” when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’s image came on big-screen televisions.

Hasan Piker has called for a purging of moderates from the Democratic Party. Just last week, Darializa Avila Chevalier declared, “A big tent doesn’t pay your rent, lower your grocery bill, or take on the corporations bleeding our country dry. Democratic socialism does.”

In a video posted to X, Professor Ware called for violence, warning followers that “some of these clickety-clack revolutionaries have never been in a f*cking gunfight.” He menacingly added, “Y’all ain’t nowhere near ready for a war in the streets. You better get ready for both kinds of war if you stay ready, you ain’t got to get ready.”

This is just the latest example of the type of hate-spewing radical that university departments want to teach in higher education. While purging virtually all Republicans, conservatives, and libertarians from departments, faculty candidates cannot be too radical enough to secure positions on colleges and universities. UCSB pays Professor Ware over $211k to spread this type of lunacy.

Notably, this is the same university that saw a professor lead her students in physically assaulting pro-life advocates on campus years ago. Despite pleading guilty to criminal assault, she was not fired and later honored by the University of Oregon for her inspiring leadership.

In other events around the country such as “Socialism 2026 Conference,” City University of New York Professor Ruth Gilmore said in a video, “It’s capitalism we’re after,…There isn’t a capitalism that is somehow not racial. There isn’t a capitalism that does not produce and reproduce all kinds of sexual and gender boundaries.”

At my alma mater, University of Chicago professor Eman Abdelhadi, the half-sister of Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, has denounced the university and explained that she is only teaching there to bring down the system.

One year after the massacre, Professor Abdelhadi offered an “October 7th blessing” over an attack that murdered, raped, and tortured innocent men, women, and children. She was previously arrested for spitting on officers.

She added “I hope you know that we have a lot of work ahead of us and that we need each other to do that work. We have an imperative to not just imagine a better future, but to build one together. I’ll see you on the streets.”

What is so striking is that these radicals are not hiding their agenda or their hostility toward the Democratic Establishment. William Lawrence, who is running for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, previously called for the end of borders, the nation-state, capitalism, and told a leading moderate Democrat to “hurry up and die.”

In the meantime, some Democrats are admitting that, after using the socialists to retake power, they will marginalize them in actual governing decisions. Rep. Laura Gillen (D-NY) just explained that they will have to block the “crazy” DSA stuff from actually getting to the floor for a vote.

In Rage and the Republic, I discuss how these Democratic leaders are following the same self-destructive delusions of other establishment figures in history who thought that they could use mobs against their opponents while hoping that they could survive.

Figures like Newsom have even campaigned on denouncing capitalism as “not working” as candidates like Texas Democratic Senatorial candidate James Talarico have called to “dismantle” capitalism. Figures like former Vice President Kamala Harris have dismissed loyalty to our core institutions such as the Supreme Court as mere “nostalgia.”

It will not work. These figures are nothing more than “clickety-clack revolutionaries” who convince no one inside or outside the movement. By putting their elections above every other consideration, Democratic leaders are willing to endanger core institutions, values, and even capitalism itself to reacquire power. In so doing, they are embracing the very “mobocracy” that the Founders warned us against in laying the foundations of our constitutional system.

Read more …

“A nationalist revolution against globalism is brewing.”

Making the World Great One Nation at a Time (J.B. Shurk)

What we call “globalism” has been on the march for eighty years. A system that embraces centralized markets, bureaucratic regulation, international institutions, and so-called non-governmental organizations (predominantly funded by governments), globalism places significant power in the hands of a small collection of wealthy and powerful stakeholders from the planet’s top investment houses, corporations, law firms, universities, central banks, and government bodies.


Globalism speaks in the language of “democracy” while ignoring — or even criminalizing — the will of the people. Across the West, citizens have opposed open border policies that have flooded their nations with unassimilable, foreign immigrants. Globalists have categorized this dissent as “hate speech,” censoring — and even prosecuting — citizens for their social media posts and public speech. Globalists insist that there must be limits on free speech. They seek to punish “thought crimes.” They label opposing points of view “disinformation” or “misinformation.” In practice, globalists protect governments and institutions from public criticism.

Globalism also speaks in the language of “free markets” while heavily regulating industrial production, encumbering the use of private property, and manipulating currency valuation, stock markets, and trade. By effectively “printing money” and intervening in markets, central banks steal from citizens who save their cash earnings, inflate the prices of essential household goods, and protect privileged companies or industries deemed “too big to fail.”

By ginning up “global warming” fears among the public, lawmakers, bankers, and bureaucrats have justified the imposition of “carbon controls” that regulate energy use, economic production, and human activity. By expanding public welfare programs while weakening protections for property ownership, globalists tax citizens at increasingly higher rates, redistribute earned income and savings, confiscate real property, and even permit squatters (often foreign migrants) to occupy private residences.

Globalism falsely clothes itself in principle and tradition. Its proponents speak of “Western values,” while encouraging non-Westerners to migrate to and radically change the culture and demographics of Western nations. Its propagandists claim to represent “the people,” while doing the bidding of multinational corporations and investment banks. Its defenders pretend to respect public opinion, while mandating slavish devotion to “expertise.” Globalism seeks to end the nation state while demanding that citizens sacrifice themselves for government bureaucracies.

It wages war against Christians who refuse to worship government institutions as the highest authorities on “truth.” Globalists divide societies into “victims” and “oppressors,” so that citizens remain too busy fighting each other to notice the surveillance prison being built around them. Globalists criticize opponents by saying things such as, “That’s not who we are,” while taking a sledgehammer and blowtorch to Western identities.

In defiance of globalism’s steady advance since WWII, a revolution has been brewing. Although its messengers have appeared all over the world — including Pat Buchanan in the United States, Shinzo Abe and Sanae Takaichi in Japan, Marine Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Javier Milei in Argentina, Alice Weidel in Germany, and Nigel Farage in the United Kingdom — President Donald J. Trump is the unofficial leader of the rebellion.

What these men and women have in common is a strong sense of duty to their respective nations, a firm belief that culture matters, a preference for common sense, and a commitment to their countrymen over the international institutions, multinational corporations, and globalist NGOs (such as the World Economic Forum) that seek to eliminate national borders and condemn citizens to lives as disposable serfs.

President Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement has spawned similar campaigns around the world. Whether in El Salvador or Nigeria, Spain or Australia, Canada or India, there are locals who have appropriated that slogan as part of an effort to make their own nations great. While globalism diminishes the importance of culture and celebrates amorphous “multiculturalism” as an inscrutable ideal, nation-builders around the world know better:

Culture is the lifeblood of every society. It is the glue that binds a people together, fosters cooperation, and turns dreams of the future into reality. Just as members of a family help each other to succeed, members of a shared culture ensure their nation’s success. People who climb mountains do not plant flags from the United Nations, European Union, the World Economic Forum, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; they fly their national flags at the top.

Because no matter how much globalists lecture us about the evils of nationalism and the moral equivalence of all cultures, human beings know better. Our families, traditions, religious convictions, and historical memories matter. And when we ascend the icy peaks that few people have reached, we mark the moment, not as an achievement for “multiculturalism,” but rather as a testament to the inherent greatness of the places we call home.

For decades, globalism has been promoted as a “free market” ideal that would generate economic growth and foster international peace. But how has it operated in practice? Powerful corporations and lobbying groups have worked with governments to construct elaborate trade agreements that benefit the bottom line of political and financial elites.

Rarely are the interests of the common man considered, except in the context of labor unions, standards bodies, or trade groups that purport to represent the average worker. Instead, complex legal documents such as the North American Free Trade Agreement have assisted in the creation of large industry monopolies while squeezing out small businesses. After the creation of NAFTA and similar “free trade deals,” American corporations and investment firms became multinational conglomerates, while Main Street mom-and-pop shops disappeared.

Read more …

We need Christianity to defend against islam.

Wherefore Art Thou, Christianity? (Paul Craig Roberts)

The Episcopal Church has a Very Reverend Dean who trans-identifies as a maThe Dean is married to a woman who also trans-identifies as a man and is a Lutheran pastor. So, what do we have here? A marriage between two lesbians or a marriage between two homosexuals.I think we can see why Christianity, once a powerful force, is today so weak and left undefended. It stands for nothing, with the exception that Christian Zionists stand for Israel, not for Christ.


If a person can deny their biological gender and be accepted as the opposite by trans-indentifying, why can’t they do the same for their race, their nationality, or is this already happening? Democrats seem content for allowing immigrant-invaders declare themselves American citizens and grant them Constitutional protections based on their presence in America.

What is the reason that a person cannot declare themselves to be Napoleon or Genghis Khan without being regarded as crazy, but can be taken completely seriously when declaring themselves to be the opposite gender to what they are? Isn t this some kind of logical breakdown in Western civilization, a denial of fact? It does seem that trans-identifying is the beginning of the end of factual existence.

What kind of existence will a non-factual one be?

Read more …

Does he really mean his own generation? Not, say, the founders?

Generation That Built America Was the Last of Its Kind (Victor Davis Hanson)

Jack Fowler: Our friend, your friend, and I’m a great admirer of David Mamet, the playwright and screenwriter and author. He wrote a piece the other day in National Review. You were just talking about being uplifted by Hillsdale. Well, David is a little—he’s got a little bit of the Eeyore gene going on, and I know you can relate to that. And his essay was titled “America, History, and Futility.” And I just want to read its conclusion, and then, Victor, you can, you know, I’m giving you permission to expound on it. So, here’s what David Mamet wrote:


“A contemporary remarked that perhaps the pendulum will swing back, and that reason, courtesy, and patriotism will reemerge. But he was wrong, for he could only imagine their reemergence in those, our contemporaries, who understood these attributes as essential for a functional and prosperous society. But to the young, the American century is a disgrace and the American dream a shuck. Histories may be debated, but the irreducible core must be verifiable fact. And what a fact is determined only by Big Brother.”

And here’s his conclusion: “I don’t know if the United States will survive in a form recognizable to my generation. I can’t even describe the current form other than as a civilization split into two factions, one decrying and the other exploiting chaos. I don’t know if prophecy as prediction actually exists, but I know, like Cassandra, that if so, it will do so in no useful form. I don’t know if the sun can actually supply enough power to run our cities, but I know there is nothing new beneath it.” Kind of depressing there, Victor, but maybe he’s kind of realistic. Your thoughts?

Victor Davis Hanson: Well, I’m prejudiced because I’ve always admired David Mamet, and I like him, and I know him. He’s a very courageous guy. He was beloved by the Left. He was a man not of the hard Left, but he was a liberal. And he finally got sick of it years ago, and, of course, they turned on him, and they turned on him professionally. But he had such a talent and such a name that he persevered. And that essay is kind of a siren song. He’s also saying throughout that essay that the problem with getting old is that you get disconnected, and you become an observer rather than a participant because of the energy levels, physical and mental.

And then second, you get philosophical and you get angry because you know what was destroyed. One thing that’s a subtext, and I think it’s true of all of us, some of us in the boomer cohort actually knew people from the 19th century. And I was blessed because my paternal grandfather and my maternal grandmother and my maternal grandfather were born in 1890 and 1888, 1889. So, they came of age without electricity, without flush toilets, without tractors, using horses. Everything about them, from their worldview, was imprinted on their childhood in the late 19th century.

So, when I got to know them, when I was 5, say, to 20, when most of them had died, everything about them, their language, their accent, their comportment, was completely foreign to the modern world. If I wanted to go outside, my grandmother said, “Be careful out there yonder. Don’t go out yonder. I’ll give the dickens to you.” What did that mean? Or, “I’ll take a switch to you, ha ha ha.” “Ain’t funny, McGee.” She used to listen to Fibber McGee in the ’30s, I guess. And “There’s the sunset, Victor. It’s sinking in the far, far west tonight.” All this.

And they lived by nature. My grandfather would say, “The birds are nesting early. There’s a big wind stirring up in the south, and that can’t be good.” Or when he’d say something, a moral lecture: “And that’s all there is to it. Now, Victor, there’s two types of people in the world. There are those who pay interest and those who get it. You got to be on the right side of the ledger. I wasn’t. Now that’s all there is to it. And when you get a $20 bill you earned, it’s a lot easier to spend it than to put it in the bank, so put it in the bank.”

All of that parsimoniousness, shame culture, be careful. He would say, “When you got your license, I was worried. I don’t want to drive in and see you drive by me in town with a cigarette hanging out of your mouth or ink on your skin. You understand?” I said, “I do understand.” And then I had a Swedish grandfather who was really, really tough. They had that bad-seed notion. They didn’t believe in therapeutics.

There was a neighbor family that was kind of affluent, and every one of them had been in jail.

So, I said, “Why are they … Is it because they had a divorce, Grandpa? What happened?”

“Well, Victor, there’s a bad seed over there. There’s a bad seed. Now one of them’s no darn good. The other one, not much better. So it’s just a bad-seed family. That’s just all there is. They’re just bad seed.”

Read more …

“It’s fortunate that Hanson is a professor emeritus of classics at California State University, Fresno, in addition to a senior fellow in military history at the Hoover Institution at Stanford.”

The Counterrevolution: Victor Davis Hanson Surveys Trump’s Fall and Rise (Rust)

President Donald J. Trump is unique in American history. Never has a candidate or president suffered so many attacks — legally, politically, and physically — yet still kept rising and carrying on his fight.


To tell the story of what Victor Davis Hanson calls the “Trump Decade” (2015-2025) requires someone versed in the rise and fall of empires. It’s fortunate that Hanson is a professor emeritus of classics at California State University, Fresno, in addition to a senior fellow in military history at the Hoover Institution at Stanford.

Hanson’s newest book, The Counterrevolution: The Fall and Rise of Donald Trump and the MAGA Movement, which will be released on September 8, takes readers from the depths of MAGA despair after the 2020 election, through the wilderness years of the Biden presidency, to the resurgent campaign of 2024, and finally, to the fast-paced, counterrevolutionary second term we’re still living through today. The book ends in January 2026, but an afterword covers events through April 2026.

His erudition is evident, from chapter titles to quotes by Edmund Burke to classical allusions. He describes the Democrats as “The New Jacobin Democrats,” comparing their 21st-century excesses to the radicals of 18th-century France. Who else but a trained classicist could describe Donald Trump after a key figure in Greek literary satire?

The media never really minded all that much when prior Republican presidents called out their liberal bias. They usually either laughed off the mostly impotent charges or considered them welcome proof of their left-wing bona fides, given that the accusations were politely lodged and largely true. Yet Trump was a different sort, an uncensored, loud-mouthed populist out of an Aristophanic comedy. He answered their unprecedented effort to destroy him politically and personally with commensurate or even greater invective.

Each of the nine chapters is so dense with information that each one could serve as a college seminar. A history book club could meet for half a year, examining one chapter a week. I finally had to stop taking notes when I’d dog-eared every other page of chapter three.

Hanson does not emote; nor does he lavishly praise Trump the way an enthusiastic rally-goer would. He is as close to an objective observer as you can find in the world of commentary.

Part One covers the fall of Trump, from the 2020 election to the exhaustive lawfare. It will prove difficult for any Trump fan to relive the days covered in those four chapters: January 6 and the Pelosi commission afterward, as well as the endless lawfare. It wasn’t just the Democrats who were anti-Trump, but at least seven other entities: the media, the administrative state, the Washington political and military hierarchies, the Never Trump Republicans, popular culture, academia, and even other countries that formed what Hanson calls the “Armies of Anti-Trumpers.”

VDH takes us on a quick journey through all the stages of the four-year period of Joe Biden’s presidency, from the quick undoing of Trump executive orders to the failures of “Bidenomics” to the regrettable decision to hurriedly leave Afghanistan.

Consider what was thrown at private citizen and former president Donald Trump in that interim: five criminal and civil suits; a made-for-TV FBI raid on his home, Mar-a-Lago; the efforts in multiple states to remove Trump from the ballot; and, of course, two assassination attempts, one resulting in a death and two injuries, along with an injured Trump.

Part Two, “The Rise,” begins with a quote from Friedrich Nietzsche: “What does not kill me makes me stronger.” Hanson describes Trump as a Nietzschean man, one who survived everything thrown at him. The Aug. 8, 2022, Mar-a-Lago raid might have destroyed him. Yet almost immediately afterward, he moved up in the polls ahead of his primary opponents.

It’s fascinating to go back and look at the 2024 primary. On November 15, 2022, Trump formally announced his candidacy. On November 18, three things happened on the same day. Former Acting Associate Attorney General Matthew Colangelo resigned. He turned up working (at a pay cut) on Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s team prosecuting Trump. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith as special counsel “to investigate Biden’s 2024 opponent.” Fulton County special prosecutor Nathan Wade met with Biden White House counsel staff. Hanson drily recites these facts, leaving the reader to speculate on what, if any, coordination was happening at higher levels.

The rest of Part Two narrates the amazing change between Trump 1, 2017-2021, and Trump 2. In this current second term, Hanson believes that Trump truly is launching a counterrevolution to bring back what Trump views as common sense: “reciprocal fair trade, closed borders, legal-only immigration, progress in curbing or at least no increasing deficits and debt, and a fierce effort to end the recent DEI orthodoxy and the anti-prosperity boondoggles of the Green New Deal.”

Chapter 7, “The Road to a New Old America,” relives the glorious rush of the first 100 days of Trump’s second term. The administration used the tactic of “flooding the zone” to keep its opponents off-key and unable to focus on an attack. The next chapter covers foreign policy and how Trump is aiming at what Hanson describes as “Jacksonian deterrence.”

In the last chapter, Hanson looks at what it will take to keep the MAGA movement alive without Trump. He believes it can be done, thanks to the base Trump has built up, the way Trump’s legacy will “haunt and obsess” Dems, and the way the president has adopted “now-abandoned Democratic issues” such as reciprocal tariffs and tax cuts for the middle class. He warns Democrats that unless they can find a charismatic leader like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama — AND tack to the center — they “are likely to lose any election that pits them against a workman-like MAGA Republican candidate.”

Read more …

Bombardier used to make only ski-doos.

President Trump Targets Canada Subsidized Bombardier Manufacturing (CTH)

Bombardier airplane manufacturing sells approximately 55% of its products inside the United States. The company is based in Montreal and manufacturers the airliners mainly in Ottawa; however, component parts are made in the USA and also Mexico. The company has a history of being heavily dependent on Canadian government subsidies and bailouts.


Bombardier employs approximately 5,000 U.S. workers and 12,000 Canadian workers but is also heavily dependent on sales to the USA to maintain over half their business. On the eve of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S, President Trump is now recommending a boycott of the airliner. The U.S. airline builder Gulfstream has been blocked from sales in Canada by regulatory slow walking, a non-tariff barrier.

“NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES! Their products aren’t good enough! Over 50% of their revenue comes from the United States — They live off American Buyers, American Companies, American Airports, and American Service — All while Canada blocks our GREAT American Banks, and Companies, throughout the U.S.A. They even blocked Gulfstream Aerospace from doing business in Canada — Completely unjust and unfair! That Era is OVER! If they want our Market, they must build here, and stop treating America like a “piggybank.” BUY AMERICAN. FLY ON AMERICAN AIRLINERS. ENJOY AMERICAN LIQUOR AND BEVERAGES. SAIL ON LAKE AMERICA. AMERICA FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

There is a reciprocity justification for Bombardier sales restrictions in the USA considering the non-tariff barriers that U.S. company Gulfstream faces against their Canadian competition. It will be interesting to see if the Dept of Commerce or USTR enact a regulatory barrier.

Mark Carney has tariffed $50 billion in U.S. exports.

There are one thousand Billions in a Trillion.

The U.S. economy is 32 Trillion.

Put another way, the U.S. economy is thirty-two thousand billions, and Mark Carney has tariffed 50 of them.

Elbows up, I guess.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 282026
 
 August 28, 2026  Posted by at 9:01 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  30 Responses »


Rembrandt van Rijn Old Man Sitting 1631


Kuwait, Qatar Ramp Up Hormuz Oil, Oman-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears (ZH)
Iran and Oman Agree to Share Strait of Hormuz Revenue, Defying Trump (Jung)
Iran’s Most Dangerous Enemy: Administrative Collapse (Monty Donohew)
Secretary Marco Rubio Suspends all Visa Reviews and Interviews (CTH)
AfD Now Polls At 43% Across Eastern Germany (ZH)
The Disappearing Western World (Paul Craig Roberts)
Canadian PM Mark Carney’s Role in EU and Ukraine Friction (CTH)
It’s Always Cute When Canada Thinks It Matters (Kurt Schlichter)
Moscow Warns It Could Target British Military Facilities (ZH)
Monopoly Money: Why Meta “Likes” the $16 Billion Settlement (Turley)
Chipmaker Nvidia Arranges Funding For Its Own Clients (NOS)
Why August 1991 Failed To Bring Peace Between Russia And The West (Bordachev)

 


 

https://twitter.com/RealBaronTrump_/status/2092648747834523756?s=20 https://twitter.com/MAGAStorm47/status/2092998667808464972?s=20 https://twitter.com/MAGAVoice/status/2092789283023466550?s=20

 


 

 


 


Is Oman a US ally?

Kuwait, Qatar Ramp Up Hormuz Oil, Oman-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears (ZH)

Brent crude futures fell to an intraday low of $86.22 a barrel early Thursday before recovering above $88 by 0630 ET. The benchmark is down 6.3% this week as traders unwind part of the war-risk premium amid growing optimism that renewed diplomatic efforts involving Iran, Oman and Qatar could reduce the threat of drone attacks on tankers in the critical waterway. Bloomberg reported earlier that Kuwait and Qatar are restoring crude exports through the highly contested maritime chokepoint. Sources familiar with energy flows in the Gulf region say that both producers are shipping about 70% of the combined 2 million barrels a day they exported before the Iran war.


Total oil shipments via tankers have climbed to between 7 million and 8 million barrels a day, up from roughly 4 million barrels a day in mid-July and equal to about 75% of prewar levels, according to the outlet. London-based energy and freight analytics firm Vortexa told clients in a separate report that the estimated seven-day average for oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz has approached 10 million barrels a day. The recovery in the critical waterway helps explain why Brent crude retreated to $86 earlier this morning after surging above $120 in late April.

The Trump administration and Tehran remain deadlocked over finding another resolution, but Gulf exporters are increasingly finding ways around the disruption. The outlet noted that the United Arab Emirates was the first to transit crude through the strait before transferring it to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman. Maritime research firm TankerTrackers was the first to report the increase in ship-to-ship transfers on Tuesday.

“An Iran-Oman framework for a ‘temporary joint maritime corridor’ is pulling oil lower. It remains difficult to envision how the US would sign off on this given the concurrent ratcheting up of economic pressure,” UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst wrote in a note. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities, said on Wednesday, “It seems crude is now beginning to price in a sooner-rather-than-later peace deal.”

Beyond Iran and Oman’s diplomatic push to reopen the strait, Reuters reported that both countries are working to clear all naval mines from the waterway. President Trump said earlier this week that all mines had been removed. However, with disruptions to Middle Eastern refineries and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, the energy crisis has morphed into a crude-products crisis, with diesel crack spreads in the US still trading above $90 a barrel. Last week, the spread hit an unprecedented $100-a-barrel level as global diesel supplies dwindled.

Read more …

Oman makes a deal with the IRGC and bypasses the US?!!

Iran and Oman Agree to Share Strait of Hormuz Revenue, Defying Trump (Jung)

Iran and Oman have reached a joint agreement on sharing revenues associated with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). However, the strategically vital waterway, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, will remain closed until Tehran resolves its conflict with Washington.


The IRGC announced on August 26 that the two countries had finalized terms after a month of negotiations over the future management of the strait. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said the talks produced results acceptable to both sides, including agreements on each country’s share of the waterway and its revenues.

The announcement followed weeks of negotiations over an interim system for restoring commercial navigation. Under the proposed framework, vessels entering the Persian Gulf would use a route through Iranian waters, while outbound traffic would use Omani waters. The arrangement would allow the two countries to collect fees for maritime services and transit, although officials have not publicly disclosed the precise revenue split. Earlier proposals had contemplated voluntary fees, but the Trump administration has opposed any attempt to impose tolls on international shipping in the strait.

Despite the IRGC’s announcement, the terms of the agreement are not final. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran and Muscat were still working through technical details, including the permanent arrangement for shipping routes. The two governments had previously described their discussions as an “interim framework” for resuming navigation rather than a completed final settlement.

The IRGC also made clear that the agreement with Oman alone would not reopen the waterway. Mohebbi accused the United States of obstructing the negotiations and said that Tehran would restore passage only if Washington accepted the previously negotiated terms. He stated that if the White House rejected Iran’s conditions, the strait would remain closed.

The dispute comes as energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted following the beginning of the conflict in February. Before the crisis in the Gulf, the waterway carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Commercial traffic has fallen sharply since the conflict began, contributing to higher energy prices and forcing energy producers and shipping companies to seek alternative routes and workarounds despite major efforts by the U.S. military to clear passage for shipping.

Shipping also remains hazardous. Iran recently blacklisted 45 vessels in an apparent effort to disrupt ship-to-ship transfers that Gulf energy producers have used to circumvent its blockade. Several oil companies have subsequently considered avoiding vessels on the blacklist, further complicating efforts to restore normal commercial traffic. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will increase economic pressure to tank Iran’s already sinking economy and bring the ayatollah’s regime to heel.

The proposed Iranian-Omani framework may represent a significant change in how traffic through Hormuz is administered if it takes effect. Iran and Oman would coordinate commercial navigation and potentially collect substantial revenues from maritime services, while a temporary system could eventually give way to a permanent division of responsibilities.

For now, however, the agreement remains conditional. Iran says it has reached an acceptable understanding with Oman, while senior Iranian officials indicate that technical issues remain unresolved and the Trump administration continues to oppose Tehran’s proposals. The next stage of negotiations will determine whether the framework can translate into the reopening of one of the world’s most consequential shipping routes.

Read more …

“Can Iran’s mullah dictatorship govern the country while losing the war?”

Iran’s Most Dangerous Enemy: Administrative Collapse (Monty Donohew)

Nearly every dispatch from this Iran military action measures Iran in the currency of destroyed hardware: ballistic missiles, drone production lines, naval combatants. That accounting matters, but it may be measuring the wrong thing. The more consequential damage may not be to Iran’s arsenal at all. It may be to the regime’s capacity to function as a coherent government. This week supplied two pieces of evidence, in two entirely different domains, pointing at Iran’s underlying administrative fracture.


The first is political, and it is remarkable on its own terms. Kayhan, the hardline newspaper closely aligned with the regime’s most conservative faction, published a piece this week accusing President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Iran’s own negotiating team of “completing a puzzle” whose intended effect was to manufacture an image of surrender and make retreat seem necessary.

That’s not commentary on an external enemy, but a state-aligned publication publicly accusing a sitting president and the speaker of parliament of engineering their own government’s capitulation, in the middle of a war, in terms ordinarily reserved for traitors. The second is fiscal, and the numbers are not subtle. Iran’s rial hit a record low of roughly 2.02 million to the dollar this week as trading opened. The IMF projects Iran’s average annual inflation will reach 68.9 percent in 2026. The World Bank estimates the Iranian economy contracted 2.7 percent in the year ending in March.

None of this means Tehran is defenseless against its own currency.

Iran has spent years building buffers precisely for moments like this: a shadow fleet of more than 350 tankers moving 1.6 to 1.8 million barrels of crude daily to Chinese refiners via ship-to-ship transfers, a barter system that covered roughly a third of oil exports last fiscal year and is projected to cover more this year, a state-administered exchange rate that lets favored importers buy dollars far below the open-market price, and a central bank willing to finance deficits by simply creating money rather than borrowing it.

These are not improvised responses. They are an institutionalized sanctions-evasion architecture, built up over successive rounds of pressure since 2018, and they have kept Iran’s oil exports above nuclear-deal-era levels even through the current war’s opening months. What is changing is how well that architecture still performs. The discount Iranian crude must offer buyers has widened from roughly eight dollars a barrel in 2023 to fourteen or seventeen dollars now, as Washington’s secondary sanctions reach further into the Chinese “teapot” refineries and shell-company networks that make the evasion possible.

Tehran’s fiscal break-even price sits near $124 a barrel; the price it is actually realizing on exported crude is closer to $56. That gap is precisely why the government leans harder on money creation, and money creation is precisely what is driving the inflation and currency collapse visible in the rial’s exchange rate. The buffers have not failed. They have simply stopped being sufficient to close the widening distance between what the state needs and what it can extract from a shrinking, more heavily discounted revenue base.

There is a further complication worth stating plainly rather than glossing over, because it cuts against any simple “sanctions are working” reading. The same evasion architecture that keeps the state solvent is also concentrating economic power in the hands of the actors best positioned to run it, chiefly the IRGC, which has expanded its role in the shadow fleet, the barter arrangements, and the currency-exchange houses that move sanctioned banks’ money.

Sanctions pressure that squeezes ordinary importers and consumers, who pay the open-market rate, while leaving IRGC-linked networks to capture the rents from smuggling and preferential exchange access, does not necessarily weaken the regime’s core coercive apparatus. It may instead redistribute economic power inside the state toward the faction least interested in a negotiated settlement, which would cut directly against the administration’s stated goal.

This is also why the Soviet Union is a useful comparison only if handled carefully, and it is worth being precise about what the analogy does and does not claim. The Soviet collapse involved national independence movements, deliberate political liberalization under Gorbachev, elite defections, and a wholesale transformation of the state’s institutions, a far longer and more complicated sequence than currency instability alone. Iran shows no equivalent liberalization and no comparable elite defections yet.

What Iran may be experiencing is not a repeat of that sequence but a similar underlying mechanism: an authoritarian state whose administrative machinery for translating central authority into local control begins to fail once fiscal and currency instability outpaces the state’s capacity to paper over the gap through patronage. That mechanism can operate on very different political timelines and produce very different outcomes than it did in Moscow. It is the mechanism, not the history, that is being invoked here.

Read more …

“The move comes on the heels of U.S. District Judge Jeannette Vargas, a Biden appointee in Manhattan, striking down a prior State Dept ban on visas from 75 countries.”

Secretary Marco Rubio Suspends all Visa Reviews and Interviews (CTH)

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suspended all international visa reviews and interviews with applicants until all of the consulate staff undergo training on the appropriate review process. The intent is to proactively identify visa applicants who are seeking temporary visas with the intent of claiming asylum status or similar permanent migration. Each consular staff agent and officer is being tasked with scrutinizing applications to ensure the applicant does not become a “public charge” after entry.


WASHINGTON – The Trump administration has directed U.S. embassies and consulates around the world to postpone immigrant visa interviews while consular officers complete training on new public-charge guidance, temporarily stalling applications that have reached the interview stage. The State Department told diplomatic posts to reschedule immigrant visa interviews until consular officers complete the training on how to evaluate whether an applicant is likely to become a public charge.

A public-charge determination can make an immigrant visa applicant inadmissible under federal immigration law if officials determine the person is likely to become dependent on certain forms of public assistance after arriving in the U.S. “In early August, we launched a global training initiative at all of our embassies and consulates worldwide. To accommodate this in-depth training, appointments for visa services will be adjusted,” a State Department official said in a statement.

[…] The administration said Monday that it was preparing to revoke the business and tourism visas of up to 200,000 foreigners who have applied for or are seeking asylum in the U.S., a move that would represent the largest mass visa revocation in U.S. history. (read more)

The move comes on the heels of U.S. District Judge Jeannette Vargas, a Biden appointee in Manhattan, striking down a prior State Dept ban on visas from 75 countries. However, the judge’s decision does not invalidate visa denials overall, based on independent grounds of ineligibility. As a consequence, Secretary Rubio is ordering worldwide embassy and consulate retraining to enhance scrutiny of all visa applications carefully.

Read more …

France AND Germany looking good. Still efforts to ban Weidel and Le Pen?

AfD Now Polls At 43% Across Eastern Germany (ZH)

Building on Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak’s note from earlier this week, which forecasts that right-wing parties are positioned to make electoral gains across Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK over the next 18 months, new polling data from Germany further suggest that Alternative for Germany (AfD) is performing exceptionally well as citizens demand political change after years of failed progressive experiments that encouraged a Third World migrant invasion and nation-killing deindustrialization trends.


Weidel said, “According to a recent Forsa survey, the AfD is at 43% across the entire East, while the CDU is down to just 13%. The citizens want the political turnaround!” The key takeaway from the new survey is that the AfD is polling at more than three times the level of the center-right CDU/CSU and exceeds the combined support of the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens. German weekly newspaper Junge Freiheit commented on the new survey, saying, “The numbers are particularly interesting ahead of the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6th and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania two weeks later.”

The outlet continued, “The assessment of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s (CDU) performance remains abysmal across Germany. As in the previous week, only 13 percent of those surveyed expressed satisfaction, while 85 percent were dissatisfied.” Elon Musk has previously stated, “AfD is the only hope for Germany.”

One reason German citizens are particularly frustrated is that Europe’s economic engine is collapsing, with Volkswagen Group labor representatives warning earlier this week that as many as 140,000 jobs could be cut at the struggling automaker.Circling back to Szczepaniak, the Nomura analyst wrote, “Five years ago, financial markets would not have seemed so at ease with such a prospect. But then again, these populist right-wing political parties were previously not so fiscally prudent as they are perceived to be today.”

He added, “Now, if anything, financial markets are much more concerned about populist left-wing parties being elected due to their desire to increase spending, often paid for through higher borrowing or higher taxes, which are likely to shut the engine off of already stuttering economies.”.

Read more …

“.. is New York City, a city whose white ethnic population is only 16% of the population still an American city?”

The Disappearing Western World (Paul Craig Roberts)

It was 53 years ago that Jean Raspail wrote The Camp of the Saints in an attempt to wake up the French nation to the future challenge they would face. The French response was to dismiss Raspail’s effort as a dystopian novel and do nothing. Today five decades later Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s only French nationalist party, is the most popular political leader in France. A recent poll showed her and her party, National Rally, favored by 38% of those polled. Her nearest rival has 17%.


One of France’s many problems is that it has too many political parties, which indicates that France is more disunited than united. In the previous French election, Le Pen won in the sense of having the most votes. But to keep a French nationalist from power, other parties formed a coalition that represented a higher number of votes. The French Establishment then tried to imprison Le Pen and prevent her from again running for office. This scenario is likely to be repeated in the next French election.

So, after more than a half century of being overrun by immigrant-invaders, as Jean Raspail said they would be, the French still cannot rise to the defense of an ethnic French nation. Only Marine Le Pen’s political party represents a French nation instead of a multicultural tower of babel.

Today in Europe and in the US a political party that represents the essence of a nation–its historical ethnicity–is regarded as racist. To be clear, it means that any country that does not consist of a collection of races, cultures, languages, and disparate interests, thereby constituting a multicultural tower of babel, is racist. This indoctrination of the Western peoples is so successful that even today only 38% of the French people support an ethnic French nation. 62% of the French population are content to exist in a tower of babel.

Having observed the increasing takeover of the states of Michigan, Minnesota, California, and New York City by third world immigrant-invaders and Massachusetts’ new law requiring the state to recruit more Muslim immigrant-invaders into the state’s government, the rising Muslim communities in Texas demanding Sharia law, and the emergence of Hispanic Spanish as America’s second official language, the Unites States itself, once a melting pot of European and British ethnicities, has sold its soul to multiculturalism, an arrangement in which there are only disparate interests, a disparity inconsistent with the name of the country–United States.

According to university and community estimates, NY City alone has more than 350 Mosques. Several decades ago I noticed that NY city cab drivers were third world immigrants. Population studies have found that NY City’s population contains 750,000 to 1 million Muslims. 2.5 million Hispanics, 1.5 million Asians, and 2.2 million Africans, some American born and some recent immigrants. According to the latest US Census, 8.58 million people live in NY City of which 7.2 million or 84% are nonwhite.

In view of these numbers, is New York City, a city whose white ethnic population is only 16% of the population still an American city? Compare this Tower of Babel to NY City’s population in, say, 1950. Already a fifth of the US work force consists of foreign born people of color. Many are H-1B work visa holders, few of whom ever return to their countries. The Western World is disappearing. The peoples of the West have inhaled so much guilt from their indoctrination and brainwashing by white liberals that they are impotent to defend and to regain their immigrant-invader threatened nations.

How long before the only white ethnicities will be in zoos as specimens of white racist colonialists?

Read more …

All the little people.

Canadian PM Mark Carney’s Role in EU and Ukraine Friction (CTH)

Barbara Boyd does a solid job connecting the recent U.S-Canada trade friction to the globalist plans of Mark Carney in alignment with the European Union. The goal is to create and maintain broad opposition to the geopolitical reset underway as an outcome of President Trump s larger and nationalistic economic agenda.


This is worth the watch as many of the background happenings are interconnected, yet few people are putting it all together. Barbara Boyd argues that the most dangerous escalation is the proxy war with Russia, highlighting Russia’s warning that direct British involvement in strikes on Russian territory could make Britain a combatant.

She says the UK has long driven the πUkraine conflict and that Trump has sought peace while Britain and Europe resist, relying on war production amid failing economies. The episode focuses on Canada’s Mark Carney as a key spokesman for a permanent-warfare economic strategy, detailing his global financial roles and Canada’s creation of a Defense Security and Resilience Bank to fund defense mobilization without citizen involvement.

Boyd also describes Carney’s actions against the U.S., including trade disputes, deeper EU alignment, and Arctic defense plans. She claims a coordinated chaos and psychological warfare campaign targets U.S. voters ahead of the midterms.

There is little doubt European NATO countries, led by the U.K, France and Germany, are stimulating and supporting increased direct military conflict against Russia. We are beginning to see not-so-covert events happening in/around border nations with Russia -carried out by Ukraine- that continue to raise the stakes.

Moldova, Romania and now Finland are starting to become increasingly visible as launch regions for Ukraine drone attacks into Russia. Meanwhile the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad (between Lithuania and Poland) is surrounded by provocative NATO military activity. Keep watching.

Read more …

Only Trump stands up to globalism.

It’s Always Cute When Canada Thinks It Matters (Kurt Schlichter)

Just what the hell are the Canadians thinking? Do they think that if they cry enough, America’s going to roll over? We’re now in another trade war with them, and the Canadians are whining, and the Democrats — who never side with America — are whining right along with them. It’s about time to be done with the country that is touted as America’s best buddy but is actually tied for its most annoying next-door neighbor. They cry that America is being mean because it’s looking out for its own interests. How dare America expect Canada to pull its weight on its own defense?


How dare America not want to perpetuate unfair and unbalanced tariff and trade rules in perpetuity? And how dare America not recognize the moral superiority of a country that, if it were a stereotype, would be a fugly, sexually dysfunctional wine woman with a “Hate Has No Home Here” sign on the front lawn of the condo it shares with five cats, all named after characters in “Twilight.”

Americans don’t think much of Canada — literally. We didn’t have to, because for a long time Canadians were just pleasant, sturdy, and trustworthy neighbors who were different from us but shared enough in common that we managed to share the longest demilitarized border in the world. Canadians don’t want to be Americans, and that’s OK. It’s silly, because everybody should want to be Americans, but it’s all right. We didn’t take offense. We’d have to be thinking about them to take offense, and we weren’t. It’s nice to have a neighbor you don’t really have to think about, except when you need to borrow sugar.

But when we did think about them, they used to be kind of amusing. Now they’re actively annoying. And their obsessive loathing of the United States has morphed from a vaguely tiresome affectation into something genuinely grating. They are ripping us off on defense and trade, they are failing to back us up around the world, and they have become a petty dictatorship. They are still funny, but the Ralph Wiggum of nations is longer ha-ha funny.

They thought about us a lot, and you can’t really blame them. We’re economically successful, stubbornly free, and masculine — all the things that Canada either never was or no longer is. Canada has been taken over by the faculty-lounge left. It’s less a country than a giant, freezing college campus where the government will literally destroy your life if you do something like point out obvious truths about how a man is not a woman or that there was a giant scam involving allegedly dead Indian children — oh wait, we’re supposed to call them “First Peoples.” Of course, they have enshrined collective guilt over taming their vast lands as their national ideology. They despise us, but they also despise themselves. We have a glorious Constitution, and they have an endless land acknowledgment.

The Canadians harken back to their European roots in other ways too, such as a hatred of free speech and dissent. After all, they were never man enough to throw out the Brits or the French, and now they have fully embraced the same kind of supine and feminine national identity that focuses on crushing actual Canadians and importing the entire Third World to replace them. And like the Europeans, they won’t ever shut up about their free healthcare, bragging about it endlessly to us and complaining endlessly to each other about having to wait six months for a blood transfusion. Pro tip: When you’re in one of their clinics, if you can ever get in, just remember to keep smiling and appearing happy; otherwise, they’re going to recommend you for medical termination.

One of Donald Trump’s great qualities is that he refuses to obey the dictates of America’s foreign-policy elite consensus. That consensus was to let the Canadians keep drafting off us on defense, trade, and the Chinese communist infiltration that has corrupted their entire government. We’re supposed to ignore all that because Canadians are nice, but Trump’s not nice. Trump actually cares about America’s national interest, and it’s not in our interest to carry Canada’s rucksack any longer or to open our markets to it. At the same time, it closes its doors to ours and allows our great enemy a foothold on the frozen tundra above us. That’s why he has been hard on Canada, and that’s why Canada is whining like a little girl.

Canada has not been marching beside us, its allegedly closest ally, for a long time. It’s been half-stepping. Now, the argument you hear back is that Canada came to our aid after 9/11 and lost 158 soldiers in Afghanistan, so we should shut up and take whatever they give us, or not give us, as the case may be. Baloney. No one minimizes or belittles the death of those heroes. Their forces were studs, and you can’t say that about all the Allied forces by a long shot. Every American who’s worked with Canadians, including yours truly, respected them as tough and dauntless warriors. You talk bad about the Canadians who served with Americans overseas, and an American soldier will deck you.

But what happened yesterday doesn’t give a free pass for what needs to happen today. The last Canadian killed in Afghanistan died 15 years ago, when they pulled out of combat operations. That’s a decade and a half. That’s a long time. We appreciate that they came, but let’s be real. That was their obligation as a NATO ally when we, a NATO ally, were attacked. They didn’t do us a favor; they did their duty under the treaty. Moreover, those semi-human Islamist scumbags murdered 24 Canadian citizens — they were avenging their own as well as ours.

They deliberately chose to stop having a military and let us do it for them. Today, Canada has no real army, no real navy, and no real air force. The once-mighty Canadian military is now a micro-military more focused on DEI than making the enemy DOA. It shamelessly lets the United States defend North America, Europe, and the rest of the world alone. It has no capacity to project power. It’s not in the Red Sea, it’s not in the Persian Gulf, it’s not anywhere helping us do the heavy lifting of keeping the world free.

And that’s just the way Canada wants it, because it doesn’t want to spend the money and it doesn’t want to dirty its soft, girlish hands helping big, mean America. Moreover, its communist Chinese masters love having a disarmed and vulnerable pseudo-ally right next to the CCP’s main adversary. Canada has long failed to pay its share of NATO, and Trump isn’t going to tolerate that. No American should tolerate that. But the Democrats do, because if Trump wants it, they have to oppose it, even if it means opposing America.

Democrats call that a “win-win.”

Canada’s military free-riding is only surpassed by its fake free-trade free-riding. Not only do they restrict American imports to their own advantage, but they demand America open its markets to them. Worse, they allow Chinese commodities and products in and let them be transshipped into the United States to circumvent tariffs on China. Again, Trump doesn’t understand the idea that we are somehow morally obligated to allow lesser nations to take advantage of us. This is a right and proper attitude, but because it’s Trump, it has to be bad. That’s one reason Democrats are so eager to take the side of a foreign country screwing over the United States on trade. The other reason is Democrats despise America.

And let’s face it: Canada isn’t anything like a real democracy. It holds no moral high ground. It persecutes people for speaking. It murders those it deems a burden on society. It embraces every disgusting aspect of DEI, including having a justice system that treats different races differently. You can be destroyed for saying things in Canada — financially and maybe even placed in prison. You are also unable to enjoy the God-given right to keep and bear arms; the government keeps a monopoly on lethal force, meaning it keeps a monopoly on power, and those who should be citizens are merely subjects. It’s frankly disgusting, and a country like that is unworthy of our friendship.

Read more …

It’ll warn first.

Moscow Warns It Could Target British Military Facilities (ZH)

From the very start of the Ukraine war, the United Kingdom has consistently been among Kiev’s most open and ardent military supporters, time and again transferring heavy weaponry, including cutting edge long-range missiles like the Storm Shadow. At the start of this week, Britain announced it plans to provide Ukraine with classified technology to allow for the country’s own manufacturing of the British/French-designed SCALP air-launched cruise missile (which in the UK is known as the Storm Shadow). The allies expect to set up a production line in Ukraine as soon as year’s end.


Already, Ukraine has used its domestic-made and designed Neptune cruise missile to strike oil refineries and military sites deep inside Russian territory. A domestic-made SCALP would present the likelihood of Ukraine then using this Western-designed missile to directly attack Russia, which only increases the chances of an eventual Moscow-NATO clash. Ukrainian forces already appeared to have used the missile on Donetsk and other locations closer to front lines in the Donbass.

On Thursday the Kremlin has issued one of its strongest warnings and threats aimed at London to date, accusing the UK of “fully taking part in the war on Kiev’s side” – and thus thwarting any chance of peace talks while adding fuel to the fire. Moscow is now saying that the UK’s own military facilities could become fair game for direct attacks.

Kremlin spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a Thursday press briefing, “We have repeatedly warned that the response to Ukrainian strikes using British weapons against Russian territory could be directed against any British military facilities and equipment in Ukraine and beyond.” Zakharova urged “all residents of the United Kingdom to think about the inevitable, catastrophic consequences of the hostile steps taken by their own authorities.” She also laid out:

“We propose that the British leadership once again carefully analyze the situation and immediately, in the most resolute and unequivocal manner, abandon the hostile, aggressive line, which can only… create the risk of the conflict escalating to an entirely new level.” Ironically this comes just on the heels of a rare visit of the CIA Director to Moscow. US officials claim the Tuesday meeting between John Ratcliffe and top Kremlin intelligence officials was to convey a warning to President Putin to not attack any NATO member. However, many analysts are skeptical that this was the official reason.

Read more …

A demand of over $1.4 trillion bought off for 11.2 billion. What’s not to like?

Monopoly Money: Why Meta “Likes” the $16 Billion Settlement (Turley)

It is not every day that a company can settle a case for over $16 billion and celebrate. However, Meta’s settlement with 29 states is a remarkably good deal for a company facing a demand of over $1.4 trillion and years of litigation. In the end, it may not even take a loss from the litigation. The settlement ends the latest mass liability case, following similar settlements in tobacco, opiates, and other products. It will require Meta to make changes to its platform, though the company already appeared to be moving to make such changes.


The maximum payment of closer to $17 billion is tied to whether competing platforms (like TikTok and YouTube) adopt parallel protections for children. Otherwise, the company is on the hook for at least $12.1 billion over 10 years under the agreement. The company agreed to impose daily time limits for underage users as well as “nighttime blocks” from midnight to 6 am (as well as notifications linked to school hours).

It is doubtful that these “fixes” will actually fix the problem. Social media is enormously popular with adults and children alike. It is also ubiquitous and accessible, particularly for tech-savvy kids. The burden will remain with parents regarding access to and use of social media, not the company.

Meta was looking at a long slog in the courts. Some of us were skeptical of the legal basis for some of these claims. The line between a popular and an “addictive” product is fairly subjective. It was hard to see where the line would have been drawn in this litigation. However, Meta likely would have faced similar demands for changes to its platforms through legislation even if it prevailed in litigation.

Those legal questions will now have to wait for another test case. The settlement leaves other companies in a more exposed position. This massive settlement is like a dinner gong for plaintiff’s lawyers who will now fan out in packs in pursuit of companies like dusk on the Serengeti. Companies are already facing thousands of such lawsuits. Meta has already lost cases in California and New Mexico over consumer safety and negligence claims. The priority was to limit the potential damages rather than to make new law.

The actual damages are not as daunting as it may seem. The tobacco multistate settlement was over $206 billion, not counting separate state settlements worth tens of millions more. The opiate settlements resulted in damages of roughly $60 billion.

Even at $16 billion, for a company the size of Meta, this is like monopoly money (literally so, if you ask some critics). The value of settling the case alone can wipe out that loss through stock-market gains and other pricing changes. After the tobacco settlement, companies like Philip Morris enjoyed market gains that effectively washed out the loss. Moreover, these companies enjoyed a very inelastic market, so they internalized costs with price hikes that left smokers holding the bag.

Ironically, if social media is as addictive as claimed by litigants, the market is equally inelastic. Big media will be able to easily recoup these damages as did Big Tobacco. Much of these damages will ultimately be passed on to and borne by social media users, operating like a tax for states receiving the funds.

The platform will clearly make positive changes that will assist parents. These are straightforward changes that have long been needed. Hopefully, these states will not just take this money and run as many did with the tobacco windfall. Instead, it would be a great help if the money went to enhancing programs for child mental illness.

Social media remains one of the most transformative inventions in history, including a powerful tool for free speech and political discourse. That popularity comes at a price. It will remain part of our social fabric, as are alcohol and tobacco products despite their abuse.

Meta did not create these social costs alone. We all did. We found ourselves overwhelmed by a technology with endless applications and potential for expression. This settlement will not erase those social costs any more than the tobacco settlement erased cancer or the opiate settlement erased addiction. The ultimate child-protection regulation will remain parents monitoring and educating their own children.

Meta’s corporate slogan, “Meta, Metamates, and Me,” may capture the problem. It is often hard for people to separate themselves from their virtual selves. This is a technology that is both liberating and captivating. Ultimately, despite the progress under this agreement, no settlement will protect us from ourselves.

Read more …

From Dutch news. Crude machine translation.

Chipmaker Nvidia Arranges Funding For Its Own Clients (NOS)

The American chipmaker Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world, is engaged in something remarkable: ensuring that its customers have enough money so that they can buy (even more) Nvidia chips. Nvidia’s computer chips have made the company enormous, because they are necessary for developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The AI chips that Nvidia designs are purchased by large tech companies. They use the computing power to develop AI programs themselves, or rent out the computing power to smaller companies that cannot or do not want to buy the chips themselves.


Nvidia is very dependent on those large customers, says Dennis Vink, professor of corporate finance at Nyenrode Business University and holder of Nvidia shares. “If one of those major customers drops out, Nvidia immediately loses a large part of its revenue. That is why they want to ensure that more customers can buy their chips.” To achieve this, Nvidia is having investment firms raise 500 billion dollars (429 billion euros), as it recently announced. That money is intended for Nvidia customers: companies that also want to use AI chips, but have less money than the big tech companies.

Tens of thousands of euros per chip
“Nvidia wants the market for AI chips to grow,” says Arnout Boot, Professor of Corporate Finance at the University of Amsterdam. “So they ensure that their customers have the money to invest in Nvidia chips. These are not the Googles and Amazons of this world, but the companies that use computing capacity. That amounts to thousands of companies.”

Reson8 is one such company. “We build AI applications that convert speech to text, for example between a doctor and a patient,” says founder Thomas Kluiters. The Nvidia chips are needed to develop this type of program: the AI industry calls this ‘training’ the program.

[..] “At the moment, those chips cost between 20,000 and 60,000 dollars each,” he says. “You need many dozens of these types of chips, plus other equipment. That means we are quite dependent on Nvidia. They simply make the best chips. We cannot find an alternative for that anytime soon.”

Due to this role in the AI industry, Nvidia has grown very strongly in recent years and is earning enormous amounts of money. Last night, the company announced that it made a profit of 59.7 billion dollars (over 51 billion euros) over the past three months. Since 2024, it has recorded a total profit of more than 300 billion dollars.

Competition is a risk for NVIDIA
Nevertheless, Nvidia is not going to front that 500 billion dollar pot to its customers itself, if it materializes. It is the investment firms that raise the money and then lend it to companies that want to buy the AI chips.

A smart way to do it, according to Vink of Nyenrode University. “In the short term, the risks for Nvidia itself are limited,” he says. “That lies with the investment firms. They aren’t stupid either: they will take a close look at the financial standing of such a company. A bank doesn’t just lend you money without looking at your situation either.”

Nvidia can, however, play a role in the agreements an investment firm makes with such a company by acting as guarantor for part of the loan. That means Nvidia takes on part of the risk, giving investors a little more certainty that they will at least get part of their money back if something goes wrong, says UvA professor Boot. “Nvidia can do this because they have an exceptionally strong position.”

Despite the billions it earns, there is still a risk, says Boot. “Developments in the field of AI are very uncertain. Nvidia chips are still very important right now, but what exactly does the future hold? What is the competition doing? In this risky world, nothing is ruled out.”

“It is a serious risk for Nvidia if competitors develop AI chips that are just as good,” Vink also says. That is another reason why the company is securing funding to acquire new customers, he says. “They are trying to make them dependent on Nvidia chips, because they want to remain the absolute biggest in this market.”

Read more …

The West sees itself as the winner of the cold war. Russia does not see itself as the loser.

Why August 1991 Failed To Bring Peace Between Russia And The West (Bordachev)

Thirty-five years have passed since the dramatic events of August 1991 in Moscow which marked, more clearly than any later declaration or diplomatic ceremony, the end of the era we call the Cold War. The failed ‘August Coup’ attempt to preserve the Soviet Union made continuation of the old confrontation impossible given one of its principal participants had effectively left the battlefield. Everything that followed, including the formal dissolution of the USSR in December 1991, merely recorded a change that had already taken place.


The essential fact was that the Soviet Union, and subsequently Russia, could no longer sustain the material and political foundations required to continue the struggle. There were many reasons for this, but foremost among them was the exhaustion of the Soviet model of state governance. Moscow therefore chose to end the confrontation. This was historically unusual because Russia hadn’t been defeated on the battlefield or forced to surrender, and the Cold War ended because of internal political change and a voluntary decision by the Soviet leadership.

Paradoxically, this peaceful ending helped make a future confrontation more likely. The principal reason was simple: the Western powers, led by the United States, regarded the end of the Cold War as a victory, but Russia didn’t regard itself as a defeated country. That contradiction became one of the central problems of the post-Cold War order. Great nuclear powers such as Russia, the United States, and China cannot realistically be defeated militarily without risking mutual destruction, thus the greatest threats to such states therefore tend to come from within through political dysfunction, economic weakness, poor governance, and social instability.

We can see something similar today in the United States. It remains the strongest individual power in the international system, but domestic conflict increasingly limits the effectiveness of its foreign policy. Meanwhile, China places internal stability and development at the center of its strategic thinking precisely because its leaders understand that domestic cohesion ultimately determines external strength. The same logic shaped the Cold War because once Washington and Moscow accumulated enormous nuclear arsenals, direct military conflict became irrational.

The confrontation instead developed according to what George Kennan described as containment in restricting Soviet influence and applying pressure across numerous fronts while avoiding a direct war between the superpowers.But we shouldn’t romanticize this arrangement because the Cold War was still a war in the political sense and the objective of the Soviet Union’s adversaries wasn’t simply peaceful coexistence, rather it was the containment and ultimately neutralization of their opponent.

From Moscow’s perspective, this amounted to a struggle against Russia itself, which at that particular historical moment existed politically and economically in the form of the Soviet state. The relative stability created by nuclear deterrence certainly encouraged a degree of mutual respect as it forced both sides to search for peaceful solutions even during serious crises. However, none of this removed the fundamental Western strategic objective which was victory over the Soviet adversary.

When the Soviet Union disappeared, therefore, Western capitals naturally interpreted the event as the achievement of that objective, but the victory was incomplete. Russia had lost the geopolitical struggle but had not been defeated in the traditional sense. Its territory hadn’t been occupied and its armed forces hadn’t surrendered, so Russians could therefore reasonably believe that the changes of 1989-91 were the result of decisions taken in Moscow rather than terms imposed by a victorious enemy and that distinction proved enormously important.

It also explains why comparisons with France after 1815 or Germany after 1945 are misleading as both countries were militarily defeated before being incorporated into new international systems established by the victors. France was reintegrated into the European order after Napoleon because Russia, Britain, Austria, and Prussia quickly developed disagreements of their own so Paris could therefore play a useful balancing role within the Concert of Europe.

Nothing comparable existed after 1991 when the Western coalition was unusually united and organized around NATO under American leadership and there was no internal balance of power in which Russia could become an indispensable partner. The comparison with West Germany after 1945 is even less convincing. West Germany entered NATO and the emerging European institutions while foreign troops remained on its territory and its sovereignty was sharply constrained by the consequences of military defeat. No comparable arrangement could conceivably have been imposed upon Russia.

After 1991, the central problem was never resolved given that the West saw itself as the victor of the Cold War and wanted to construct a political order reflecting that victory. Russia, on the other hand, saw itself as a sovereign great power that had voluntarily abandoned the previous confrontation and expected to participate in the new order on that basis and these expectations were fundamentally incompatible.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/TRobinsonNewEra/status/2092661241315512654?s=20

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Apr 252026
 
 April 25, 2026  Posted by at 9:07 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  29 Responses »


Christopher Makos Andy Warhol piloting John Denver’s bi-plane 1977


US Sending Witkoff, Kushner To Pakistan As Iran Balks At Talks (ZH)
Trump Weighs Consequences For NATO Allies On ‘Naughty’ List (Politico)
Europe Bets On Newsom To Reverse Trump’s America – And Save Its Own Model (Kolbe)
Europe’s Hormuz Mission And The Illusion Of Geopolitical Power (Kolbe)
What CBS News’ Dinner to Honor Trump Means for the Future of News (Rivera)
Canada Pushes Closer to the FAFO Threshold (CTH)
In President Trump’s Mind There’s Not Going To Be a USMCA (CTH)
Globalism is a Series of Dependencies (CTH)
House Panel Orders SPLC to Turn Over Communications With Biden’s DOJ (ET)
I’m Part of America’s ‘Most Stressed’ Generation (Reagan Wilbanks)
UAE To Move 50% Of Government Services To AI By 2028 (ZH)
Google Deepens Anthropic Bet With Up To $40 Billion Investment (ZH)
China’s DeepSeek Debuts Flagship AI Model As Compute Race Intensifies (ZH)
Bruce Springsteen’s Land of Hope and Dreams No Longer Welcomes All (Perrotta)

 


 

https://twitter.com/XFreeze/status/2047383798472437951?s=20 https://twitter.com/BowTiedTrance/status/2046995211595792477?s=20 https://twitter.com/MAGAVoice/status/2047475540693840189?s=20

 


 


Trump hands Iran the noose to hang themselves. And they do.

US Sending Witkoff, Kushner To Pakistan As Iran Balks At Talks (ZH)

Confirming earlier speculation, CNN reported that President Trump is sending tdswo envoys for talks with Iran in Pakistan, even as Tehran sounded a more pessimistic tone on the prospects of further negotiations. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are set to participate in talks this weekend with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Yet according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported earlier, no talks are slated to take place between the two parties during the foreign minister’s trip. Vice President JD Vance, the lead negotiator for the US, isn’t currently expected to join the delegation, CNN said. According to the latest from the White House Press Secretary on Vance:


Vice President JD Vance will be on “standby” and is “willing to dispatch to Pakistan” for Iran talks if negotiations progress in a way that the White House determines is a “necessary use of his time,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says. Araghchi earlier said he was headed to Pakistan, but poured cold water on speculation that the US and Iran were close to a second round of negotiations to end the eight-week war, posting on social media that the purpose of his travel is to “closely coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments.”

Officials in Pakistan familiar with the matter said they expected a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran, while declining to say when the negotiations would happen or at what level. Oil fell by as much as 3.3% to trade near $93 a barrel on the latest sign that the elusive peace talks between the US and Iran may materialize after all, even if there are no assurances of a favorable outcome. Traders had been closely tracking the movements of both delegations for signals on whether negotiations would come to pass and offer some relief as the strait remains largely shut.

Iran FM Will Not Meet American Side in Pakistan; Tehran Denies Ghalibaaf Rumors …but he will travel to Islamabad, and is expected there by Friday evening, amid what’s being described as a multi-nation diplomatic tour to shore up support for Tehran, and to set the conditions for potential next round of negotiations with Washington.

“The date for the launch of the second round of US-Iranian negotiations has not yet been determined,” a Pakistani source told Al Hadath. In Islamabad all that’s expected is that FM Araghchi and his small team will engage with Pakistani mediators, and nothing more. There’s been no comment on all of this from the White House, which says Trump has “all the time in the world” regarding the Iran war and Hormuz standoff. Meanwhile Tehran has once again vehemently rejected as false the new Friday reports that Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaaf has been replaced as lead negotiator.

More Speculation on Ghalibaf Resigning Negotiations Team
Tehran on Thursday rejected widespread reports that Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf as resigned from leadership of Iran’s negotiating team. But these reports have persisted into Friday, with Saudi-funded, London-based Iran International ‘newly’ reporting: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, head of Iran’s negotiating team with the United States, has stepped down amid internal disagreements, Iran International has learned. According to information obtained by Iran International, Ghalibaf was reprimanded for attempting to include the nuclear issue in talks with Washington and was forced to resign.

Hardline figure Saeed Jalili could replace him, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is also seeking to take over the negotiations. And yet the fact remains that no talks are as yet scheduled, with regional media now saying Iran FM Araghchi is about to tour different countries, including Oman and even will make a stop in Russia – and that this may include Islamabad. If so, reports say it could just be part of a preparatory phase to engage Washington directly again. Latest via AJ: “No Iran-US talks to take place during FM Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Pakistan, only bilateral engagement,” citing senior Iranian source.

Hegseth Presser: Mine-Laying, Nuclear Sticking Point
A key line from the Pentagon chief on Friday morning: “All they have to do is abandon a nuclear weapon in meaningful and verifiable ways, or instead they can watch the regime’s fragile economic state collapse under the unrelenting pressure of American power, a blockade as long as it takes, whatever President Trump decides,” Hegseth said. He added that with the blockade continuing, “the clock is not on their side.” On this, Hegseth reiterated, “President Trump said it again yesterday. We have all the time in the world, and we’re not anxious for a deal.” And yet, he actually again made comparison to America’s forever wars in the region:

Still, Hegseth opened his remarks to reporters decrying what he called the “endless wars of the past that dragged on for years and for decades,” and he sought to draw distinctions between the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, the defense secretary argued that Operation Epic Fury has delivered a “decisive military result” in weeks, with a focus on the mission of keeping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. T

he defense secretary said the mission is continuing into a new phase, and Iran now has the opportunity to make a peace deal. “Iran has an important choice, a chance to make a deal. A good deal. A wise deal,” he said.nHe further referenced yesterday’s reports that Iran is still engaged in mine-laying activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and warned: “If Iran is putting mines in the water, or otherwise threatening American commercial shipping or American forces, we will shoot to destroy. No hesitation,” he said.nInadvertent admission of the leveling power of asymmetric warfare & geographic advantage: “Any one with a speedboat and a gun…”

Read more …

Trump wants to throw Spain out. Apparently that’s not easy.

Trump Weighs Consequences For NATO Allies On ‘Naughty’ List (Politico)

The effort is the latest sign President Donald Trump plans to make good on his threats against members not deemed “model allies.” The White House has developed something akin to a “naughty and nice” list of NATO countries, as the Trump administration looks for ways to punish allies who refused to back the Iran war.nThe effort, which officials worked on ahead of NATO head Mark Rutte’s visit to Washington this month, includes an overview of members’ contributions to the alliance and places them into tiers, according to three European diplomats and a U.S. defense official familiar with the plan.


It’s the latest sign that President Donald Trump plans to make good on his threats against allies who don’t adhere to his wishes. And it’s another pressure point on the increasingly frayed alliance, which has been battered by Trump’s attacks — from his push to annex Greenland to his warning of a complete withdrawal from the pact. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth floated the broad idea in December. “Model allies that step up, like Israel, South Korea, Poland, increasingly Germany, the Baltics and others, will receive our special favor,” he said. “Allies that still fail to do their part for collective defense will face consequences.”

One of the diplomats said the list appeared to reflect that concept. “The White House has a naughty and nice paper so I guess the thinking is similar,” the person said. The administration is keeping any details quiet as it plans options, according to the people. And officials have provided little clarity on what the favors or consequences might be. “They don’t seem to have very concrete ideas…when it comes to punishing bad allies,” said another European official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. “Moving troops is one option, but it mainly punishes the U.S. doesn’t it?”

The White House made its frustration with allies clear. “While the United States has always been there for our so-called allies, countries we protect with thousands of troops have not been there for us throughout Operation Epic Fury,” said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly, referring to the Pentagon’s name for the operation. “President Trump has made his thoughts on this unfair dynamic clear, and as he said, the United States will remember.”

Read more …

Europe hardly knows Newsom. It wants anyone who can stop Trump.

Europe Bets On Newsom To Reverse Trump’s America (Kolbe)

America remains a country of high social mobility and upward opportunity—something we no longer see on today’s European continent. It may sound kitschy to many Europeans, yet its vibrant economic centers, high geographic mobility, and the flexibility of its people still create the conditions for this unique phenomenon. Admittedly, the narrative of the “land of unlimited opportunity” may sound exaggerated today—something akin to self-promotion. Yet at its core, it still holds true. Can one still make something of oneself there? Donald Trump’s deregulation program, combined with tax cuts for businesses as well as small and medium incomes, has in any case helped to revive this promise of upward mobility.


Trump’s policies go hand in hand with the elimination of fiscal privileges and subsidies. His goal: the systematic dismantling of the fiscally secured and media-backed strongholds of power of a socialist apparatus that reflects the spirit of European regulatory policy. Put simply, under Trump, American nationalism and a rejection of ideological engineering have returned to the political agenda. With intense competition and market-driven policies at home, alongside a trade and tariff strategy reminiscent of presidents like Alexander Hamilton and William McKinley, this forms a clear countermodel to his predecessors. They had significantly advanced the European model of climate socialism as a tool of power consolidation.

For the record: it was President Barack Obama who, in 2009, identified carbon dioxide as a lever of power, integrated European regulatory frameworks, and began systematically undermining the traditional American values of individual liberty, mobility, free markets, and minimal government. The public outrage over Trump’s reversal in key questions of political power architecture stems largely from the fact that too many had grown comfortable in a world of subsidies, NGOs, and public sector employment. European climate socialists now pin their hopes on California Governor Gavin Newsom. In two and a half years, he is expected to enter the White House and initiate a return to the status quo ante.

In Berlin, Brussels, Paris, and London, they are likely already counting the days until a possible political shift in Washington. Trump has fallen out of favor with Europeans because his agenda of prioritizing American national interests mercilessly exposes the ideological contradictions and intellectual weakness of European socialism. Whether in foreign policy—where the U.S. asserts itself forcefully toward countries like Venezuela or Iran—or in its confrontation with the climate lobby and the left-wing NGO complex, Trump’s policies reflect the will of many Americans to finally address the consequences of globalist policies and draw the logical conclusion: dismantling this socialist overreach.

It is telling that his migration policy meets fierce resistance in the strongholds of Democratic Party power. Where migration and poverty industries have taken root, the immigration authority ICE encounters near civil-war-like resistance. Yet it is not Trump’s fault that the European social model lies in ruins. Europe suffers from a lack of self-criticism and a general unwillingness to confront its own ideological failures. Meanwhile, nuclear cooling towers are demolished, coal seams flooded, and gas infrastructure dismantled. The politics of ideological immaturity collide with Washington’s hard-nosed approach and the necessary repair work on a deeply damaged social and economic body.

No matter whom the Republican Party nominates as Trump’s potential successor—be it J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio—the German press has already made its choice. It longs for America’s return to European-style climate socialism: more comfortable, more predictable, and promising continued access to public funding—even for its own future. To underline this, the German weekly WirtschaftsWoche recently published a guest article by Gavin Newsom. Newsom seeks to persuade foreign governments to view California as an independent economic entity—the world’s fifth-largest economy, still embodying the spirit of boundless opportunity.

The implicit message is clear: California’s economic stagnation is not the result of high taxes or aggressive climate policies in the European mold—nor of its war on oil and gas—but solely the fault of Donald Trump’s tariff policy.California is Europe in miniature—a shadow of the Old Continent cast across the United States. It now finds itself exposed by Washington’s market-driven reforms, which throw its model into stark contrast. The results are increasingly visible: one system succeeds, the other falters.

In his guest contribution, Newsom naturally avoids addressing the consequences of California’s climate policies. As in Europe, CO2 costs are placing enormous strain on industry. Companies are leaving—just as they are in Germany—and relocating to states like Texas or Florida, where industrial production is still valued. Newsom’s socialist course, which began in 2019, is evident not only in rising public debt. More striking is the emergence of a full-fledged poverty management industry. Years of open-border policies enabled the development of a deeply corrupt system of dependency management. California has become a magnet for illegal migrants, drug addicts, and other lost individuals; at the same time, the political framework sustains an extraction economy similar to what we observe in Germany’s migration sector. The parallels are striking.

The Sunshine State, once a place of aspiration for so many, now resembles—especially in its urban centers—the kind of social decay familiar from Europe’s migration-driven slums. Hardly a model to be proud of—yet, for WirtschaftsWoche, seemingly the ideal form of postmodern urbanity.

Newsom frequently points to the success of Silicon Valley, the powerhouse of digital innovation. Yet this engine of growth quite literally fell into his lap; he has contributed nothing of substance to enhancing the state’s innovative capacity. Silicon Valley existed before Newsom—and it will exist after him, if necessary in a different location, in new form, after escaping the suffocating grip of bureaucratic overreach. A final word on those Europeans who hope for Trump’s failure: with Newsom and a return of the United States to European climate socialism and mass immigration, capital flight from the EU might temporarily slow. It is entirely possible that European leadership could buy time by pointing to a faltering America. But it would change nothing about Europe’s decline—only delay the inevitable.

Read more …

“The situation remains fragile: the currently stable ceasefire ends on Wednesday. And negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran are entering their final phase.”

“A US withdrawal from NATO would likely also mean a full retreat from the Ukraine conflict. This move would expose both Europe’s fragile finances and its non-existent security infrastructure.”

Europe’s Hormuz Mission And The Illusion Of Geopolitical Power (Kolbe)

The loss of Europe’s geopolitical power is the defining decline narrative of our time. As Europeans, we are condemned to become unwilling witnesses of continental decay. And in no field of politics does the toxic amalgam of eco-socialism, elite arrogance, and rampant infantilism become more visible than at the level of the European Union. What we are witnessing in Brussels and the leading capitals of the EU are desperate attempts at coordinated foreign policy – and the realization that the cooperation of powerless individual entities does not necessarily lead to better outcomes than bilateral cooperation.


That this realization must have reached the highest circles of European politics could be observed at the end of this week. The four “big ones” – Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy – called for a maritime alliance and the protection of the Strait of Hormuz. Fifty additional states – according to the initiators of this rather peculiar political camouflage – are expected to join the European alliance. Leadership claims are naturally being made by the former maritime powers Britain and France, above all France, whose aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle may stand as the last remaining symbol of Europe’s great naval tradition at the center of these activities – if one can even approach the Persian Gulf at all.

The situation remains fragile: the currently stable ceasefire ends on Wednesday. And negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran are entering their final phase. From a European perspective, our assumptions are once again confirmed: the EU and its slowly re-approaching partner the United Kingdom are staging a political cabaret. First came the wait-and-see approach until Americans and Israel had militarily decided the situation. Meanwhile, some NATO members refused cooperation with the United States, only to now, after everything has been decided, attempt to place themselves at the forefront of political forces seeking to guarantee the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

Through constant media overdrive, Starmer, Macron, Meloni, and Merz present themselves as the decision-makers of the moment – it is their harvest time, collecting cheap public dividends. But is that really the case? Do they seriously believe that the majority of Europeans are not fully aware of what is happening? That European power is essentially the product of media magic – permanent propaganda wrapped in moral excess? A shadow of past greatness, reduced to virtual impotence, ultimately dissolving into the very media theatre that we, as embarrassed Europeans, are forced to endure every day.

The German contribution to the mission, as announced by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is predictably modest: mine countermeasure vessels (eight available), one supply ship, and two P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft. No frigates – they are tied up in a NATO deployment in the North Atlantic. Germany does have a defense budget that exceeds all other Europeans by billions, yet even this money appears to vanish into the nirvana of bureaucracy and into the coffers of defense contractors, who are popping champagne corks thanks to the government’s debt-driven spending spree amid multiple conflict scenarios.

As for the possible German contribution. But as said: whether a military deployment will actually take place remains uncertain. Europe is already feeling the consequences of its energy dependency and its eco-socialist policy course, which hit like an icy wind. Yet this does not change the fact that policymakers continue to refuse to acknowledge the geopolitical vacuum, and instead begin trying to piece together diplomatically what they have shattered in recent years – especially in relations with the United States and Russia.

From poker we know: those who repeatedly bluff at the same table with empty hands and are exposed will be dismantled in future rounds. A US withdrawal from NATO would likely also mean a full retreat from the Ukraine conflict. This move would expose both Europe’s fragile finances and its non-existent security infrastructure. The EU faces economic and geopolitical problems it cannot manage alone.

Read more …

CNN to become pro-Trump.

What CBS News’ Dinner to Honor Trump Means for the Future of News (Rivera)

On its surface, a dinner in honor of the president of the United States isn’t exactly unusual — except when the president is Donald Trump and the dinner is being planned by one of Hollywood’s major movie studios. For decades now, Hollywood executives have been leading propagandists for far-left political groupthink. TV shows, movies, and even award ceremonies are little more than soapboxes for liberal disinformation. The relatively few creatives who dare openly lean right are often ostracized and left scrambling for work.


But now we have Paramount — led by David Ellison, son of Larry Ellison, the billionaire co-founder of Oracle and a staunch supporter of President Trump — who recently purchased CBS News, reportedly planning an invitation-only dinner this month in honor of Trump and CBS News’ White House correspondents. If there’s one thing more important to Tinseltown than adhering to progressive doctrine, it’s their bottom line. That’s why conservatives have reason to cheer Paramount’s latest pending acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which will result in the company acquiring the HBO Max streaming service, all of Warner Bros. And HBO’s legacy content, and even CNN.

It’s not a stretch to call CNN an enemy of conservatives. The original cable news network has long positioned itself as a champion of the radical left — from its heyday when it was mocked as the Clinton News Network, to the embarrassingly combative shenanigans of “reporter” Jim Acosta during the first Trump administration, to the consistent mocking of Trump supporters by former CNN talk show host Don Lemon (last seen getting arrested for disrupting Christian worship services in Minnesota).

Conservatives long ago created their own successful media channels, allowing them to circumvent liberal-controlled news platforms. But they also remained frustrated over how the legacy media was so corrupted by the far left. That’s why it’s encouraging that David Ellison and Paramount have emerged. A sign of the internal earthquake to come if the Paramount-Warner deal is approved is the panic already rippling through CNN. As the New York Post reports, “CNN staffers are freaking out after learning that their left-leaning network’s owner Warner Bros. Discovery will be acquired by Paramount Skydance — even as insiders confirmed that the new owners plan to take a more politically centrist approach to news.”

Experience demonstrates that “woke” doesn’t sell. Just ask Budweiser, Target, and Cracker Barrel, among plenty of other companies that learned the hard way. When companies try to flaunt their woke bona fides, most Americans drop their brands. It’s telling that even AMC Theatres’ chief executive, Adam Aron, has announced his support for the pending merger. Executives have realized that what’s good for conservatives is good for the entertainment industry’s bottom line.

First, social media and podcasts broke the mainstream media’s monopoly on thought and content. Now, conservatives are assuming control of traditional studios and streaming platforms. With the marketplace of ideas no longer controlled by radical left groupthink, American consumers once again have freedom of choice. Just when it’s needed most, democracy is on the rise.

Read more …

A long Sundance article that I cut into three pieces.

Trump loves Canada, but not the woke version. Not Trudeau or Carney. “Canada is positioned to be the first nation to discover the expressed power of the U.S. President as affirmed by the United States Supreme Court.”

U.S. media reports are blocked from Canadian social media sites. (I didn’t know that)

Canada Pushes Closer to the FAFO Threshold (CTH)

Following direct remarks from both Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, a triggered Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says the U.S. will not be permitted to dictate terms of the USMCA renegotiation, now scheduled for formal talks with Mexico only beginning May 25th. According to the Canadian leadership they do not need the United States in order to maintain their economy. The unfortunate people of Canada are very close to finding out exactly what that level of arrogance delivers.


USTR Jamieson Greer was just in Mexico meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and the Mexican trade delegation. Mexico s economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said on Monday that formal negotiations to review the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact, known as the USMCA, are due to begin the week of May 25. Tomorrow and this afternoon we will hear the U.S. side s views. Once that is done, we will move on to the next phase, which is formal negotiations. We expect formal negotiations to begin the week of May 25, Ebrard said following a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.


Meanwhile Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney continues talking to his domestic audience about fighting Donald Trump and refusing to accept any terms that do not meet his current pontifications: It s not a case that the United States dictates the terms. We have a negotiation, we can come to a mutually successful outcome it will take some time, he continued. In Washington, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said unless Canada engaged in talks about broadening the so-called rules of origin that allow goods to enter the United States tariff-free, Washington might have to impose other border controls.

Meanwhile Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney continues talking to his domestic audience about fighting Donald Trump and refusing to accept any terms that do not meet his current pontifications: “It’s not a case that the United States dictates the terms. We have a negotiation, we can come to a mutually successful outcome – it will take some time,” he continued. In Washington, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said unless Canada engaged in talks about broadening the so-called rules of origin that allow goods to enter the United States tariff-free, Washington might have to impose other border controls. As the rhetoric continues increasing, the possibility of a full block against the import of Canadian goods increases.

It is worth remembering, the recent Supreme Court decision that overturned the IEEPA tariffs also reinforced the unilateral power of the U.S. President to regulate any/all trade with any foreign country including a full block of trade if designated. Canada is positioned to be the first nation to discover the expressed power of the U.S. President as affirmed by the United States Supreme Court. One of the reasons why Canadians are oblivious to the potential collapse of their economy is because U.S. media reports are blocked from Canadian social media sites. One of the infringements within the USMCA is the Canadian Law Bill [C-18, the Online News Act] that blocks information to Canadian citizens that is not supported by the Canadian government.

The people of Canada are stuck inside an Orwellian government constructed echo-chamber unable to hear opposing viewpoints. They simply have no idea what is heading in their direction. Which is incredibly ironic considering how much Mark Carney rails against Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet Canada has more restrictions on information than Russia. Think about it. The need for control is a reaction to fear. This information control dynamic helps to explain why Canadians, in the aggregate, simply do not realize the nature of the trade conflict that has been created by their own government.

Perhaps a full 30-day blockade would help their eyes to open; perhaps not. However, something needs to happen in order for the Canadian people to have time to prepare for the economic collapse soon to fall upon them. On June 1st Jamieson Greer anticipates telling congress that the U.S. intends withdrawal from the USMCA (CUSMA), pending unilateral negotiations with both Canada and Mexico to resolve conflict. Greer described two different protocols within any negotiation to deal with the structural differences between both Canada and Mexico.

Those differences include a completely different import/export profile with each country, different sectors of goods, difference in the wage rates within each country and a structural difference in the way each country is establishing their own, independent free trade agreements with other third-party countries. These baselines form the reason to tell congress of the dissolution, and on July 1st inform both Canada and Mexico about it.

In the interim, the points of conflict are currently being negotiated with Mexico toward resolution. Hence Jamieson Greer in Mexico meeting with officials on Monday and Tuesday.mIt is not just Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer who are publicly warning the Canadian government about what lies at the end of this self-destructive path they have chosen, Deputy USTR Rick Switzer recently also sounded the alarm.

Read more …

“Canada is helping President Trump remove the congressional justification they could use to block him.”

In President Trump’s Mind There’s Not Going To Be a USMCA (CTH)

The Canadians have been talking to U.S. media looking for sympathetic ‘Orange man bad’ coverage. However, within the contacts between Canadian government officials and U.S. corporate allies, the sentiment from team Trump is very clear:“The key thing that has struck me, and I think it has struck all Canadians, is so many of these guys in the Trump administration, frankly, they just hate Canada,” said Brian Clow, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s deputy chief of staff who led Canada-U.S. affairs. {source} It’s not hatred, it’s annoyance. Years of compounding parasitic annoyances and sanctimonious, ‘holier-than-thou’ pontifications from the arrogant and uppity Canadian government.


The only time Canada has been honest with themselves and with President Trump was when Justin Trudeau was exiting office and admitted Canada cannot function without all of the one-way benefits it receives from the USA. When President Trump was asked about Prime Minister Mark Carney creating a new trade agreement with China, President Trump responded that he didn’t care – it was irrelevant to him. Yet, simultaneously inside the USMCA President Trump has the power to veto any trade agreement between Mexico or Canada and a non-member nation.

So, why didn’t President Trump care? Easy, because in President Trump’s mind there’s not going to be a USMCA; so, he really doesn’t care if Canada runs to violate it. In real terms, Canada doing bilateral deals with other countries, especially deals potentially detrimental to the USA, only strengthens his position on dissolving the USMCA. If Canada violates the terms and spirit of the USMCA, it makes dispatch of the unliked trade agreement even easier. Canada is helping President Trump remove the congressional justification they could use to block him. If Canada is violating the USMCA (CUSMA), Congress is kneecapped from interference.

Provoking Canada into a trade position, that puts them at a disadvantage trying to stop the dissolution of the CUSMA, stops Congress from opposing the fracture, and then opens the door to a bilateral trade agreement, is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that is entirely controlled by President Donald Trump. Both Canada and Europe are independently, out of necessity, taking action that takes apart the trade and economic system they created. At the core of the old trade system both Canada and Europe were exploiting the USA, exfiltrating wealth and skimming the independent entrepreneurial innovation that originates from within the U.S. economic system.

That necessary exploitation happened because the USA is innovative (freedom-based capitalism), while the CA/EU system is built on government control mechanisms. The CA/EU energy policy is just one impactful example of their pontificating inability to be insightful when it comes to consequences. The EU and Canada are now stuck looking for markets that will do the dirty jobs, provide them with core components, while simultaneously looking for markets for their finished products.

On the other side of the approach is President Trump, working to expand U.S. industrial dirty job capacity, create our own core components, then create finished goods entirely on our own. A complete revitalization of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing base. Our U.S. GDP is currently expected to grow north of 5%. This is not happening by accident.

Read more …

“The world leaders came because the process to keep USA wealth inside the USA is against their interests. That’s why they came, and that’s why President Trump left.”

Globalism is a Series of Dependencies (CTH)

SUMMARY: Some people have construed the bilateral trade preference of President Trump to be the elimination of globalism in favor of nationalism in trade agreements. While the outcome of Trump’s approach indeed aligns with that theme, it is not specifically the objective of President Trump to eliminate global trade, but rather to focus on specific interests in trade that benefit the unique nature of each party involved.


Canada can embrace China, and Europe can embrace India; in the bigger picture it really doesn’t matter. These relationships only create dependencies which are the natural outcome of globalism. From President Trump’s position, what really matters is what happens within our borders and how the United States economy is positioned. This is President Trump’s singular focus.

Do you remember President Trump leaving the 2025 G7 meeting in Canada early? The final day invitation list brought Australia, Mexico, Ukraine, South Korea, South Africa, India, the United Nations and the World Bank into the G7. President Donald Trump smartly exited the G7 assembly a day early, he departed before that crowd of interests arrived. The world leaders came because the process to keep USA wealth inside the USA is against their interests. That’s why they came, and that’s why President Trump left.

Globalism, in its economic construct, is a series of dependencies. However, the opposite is also true. If nations are not dependent, they are sovereign – able to exist without the need for support from other nations and systems. If nations are sovereign, then globalism is no longer needed. If each nation of the world is operating according to its individual best interests, the position of Donald Trump, then what happens to the governing elite who set up the system of interdependencies?

Read more …

“Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche alleged that the SPLC had used “paid operatives within extremist circles to incite and intensify racial tensions..”

House Panel Orders SPLC to Turn Over Communications With Biden’s DOJ (ET)

House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on April 23 gave the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) until April 30 to hand over documents regarding its relationship with the Biden–Harris Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI, as part of a federal prosecution of the civil rights group.


In a letter to Bryan Fair, SPLC interim president and chief executive, Jordan wrote that “publicly available documents revealed how the Justice Department partnered closely with the SPLC during the Biden-Harris Administration, including scheduling regular meetings, giving the SPLC early access to federal law-enforcement data, and allowing SPLC employees to train federal prosecutors.” The letter was also posted to social media. The chairman’s demand came two days after a grand jury in Montgomery, Alabama, returned an 11-count indictment alleging the SPLC had committed wire fraud, made false statements to a federally insured bank, and conspired to conceal money laundering.

The indictment accuses the SPLC of funneling more than $3 million between 2014 and 2023 to no fewer than eight paid informants in violent racist organizations, including the Ku Klux Klan, the United Klans of America, the National Socialist Movement, the National Socialist Party of America, the American Front, and the Aryan Nations-aligned Sadistic Souls Motorcycle Club. Prosecutors said the group set up accounts under fictitious names, such as “Fox Photography” and “Rare Books Warehouse” among them, to hide where the money came from.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche alleged that the SPLC had used “paid operatives within extremist circles to incite and intensify racial tensions,” arguing the civil rights organization “fostered the very threats it claimed to fight.” Jordan’s letter tells Fair that the committee is investigating whether the SPLC shaped federal policy during the Biden–Harris years, highlighting a now-withdrawn 2023 FBI Richmond Field Office memorandum, dating back to when Christopher Wray led the bureau, that treated “radical-traditionalist” Catholics as given to violence, citing the SPLC as a source.

The chairman requested that the organization provide by next Thursday all communications with any “field source,” or informant, dating to Jan. 1, 2017. He also asked for communications referring to fictitious entities used to pay any “field source,” also dating to 2017, as well as communications with the DOJ, FBI, and other federal agencies dating to Jan. 20, 2021.Fair said that the organization was “outraged by the false accusations” and will “vigorously defend ourselves, our staff, and our work.” He noted the informant program, since shut down, “saved lives.”

“Taking on violent hate and extremist groups is among the most dangerous work there is, and we believe it is also among the most important work we do,” Fair said. The SPLC disclosed the criminal probe ahead of the indictment, noting it faced a DOJ investigation over its use of “paid confidential informants” to infiltrate so-called extremist organizations. The indictment covers almost a decade of alleged misconduct and claims that donors were never told the real reason behind the solicited funds.

Read more …

More stressed than the people living through the Civil War? My, what a loser.

I’m Part of America’s ‘Most Stressed’ Generation (Reagan Wilbanks)

My generation is stressed. Overwhelmed by AI-generated content. Uncertain about the future. Lacking meaningful relationships. Those of us in Gen Z—young people ages 14-29—carry a level of stress no one prepared us for. April is Stress Awareness Month, and May is Mental Health Month. Our stress is soaring. Our mental health is struggling. One reputable survey showed that 40% of young people feel stressed or anxious “all or most of the time.” Is there any hope for Gen Z? My generation is earnestly searching for the answer to that question. We’re turning to religious teachings and faith in increasing numbers in our quest for a life of deeper meaning and belonging.


Interest in Christianity is rising on U.S. college campuses and drawing more young Americans to church. We’re not looking for soft sermons or cute videos on the big screen upfront. We crave something real. Something that grabs hold of us and won’t let go. A faith that gives our lives purpose beyond endless scrolling and digital media overload. My generation is pushing back against things that are fake, quickly generated, and automated. Instead, we want real community and belonging. Smaller, more personal connections rather than big brands. I’m hungry for authentic experiences — to feel the breeze on my face, to touch green grass, to know the God who created it all and who also made me.

Are we at the point of no return?
It’s clear that America is bitterly divided. We’re angry. We’re confused. Culturally and spiritually, our nation stands at the point of no return. My generation will decide the tipping point. Which way will we turn? It took a great spiritual awakening to give birth to our country. Now, as America celebrates its 250th birthday this year, I believe we’re on the edge of another great awakening—with my generation at the forefront. Watch this video to learn more: click here.

Pollster George Barna revealed 52% of U.S. teenagers are “very motivated” to learn more about Jesus Christ. Many young Americans are turning to established faith traditions that offer the stability and longevity that we crave. We’re looking for something with roots. We’re looking for a home. We’re also turning to prayer. And this gives me a burst of hope. The next Great Awakening will come when Christ’s followers pray. Humbly. United. In towns and cities from coast-to-coast — a movement of a million believers from Maine to Hawaii asking God to draw a million Americans to faith in Jesus.

This growing movement could change everything. Only God, through a new movement of the Holy Spirit, is able to awaken faith and revive hope across America. My generation — the “most stressed” yet earnest generation — stands at the precipice. Will you be one of the million to pray? Will you join the movement?

Read more …

What’s happening to personal contact?

UAE To Move 50% Of Government Services To AI By 2028 (ZH)

Finally a practical use of AI. In a world swimming in debt and overrun by government bloat and corruption, Dubai is taking a big step into the future. On Thursday, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, announced that in two years, 50% of UAE’s government sectors, services, and operations will run on Agentic AI, arguably the best use of the new technology yet. The new “government model” was launched under the directive of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. It will make the UAE the first government globally to operate at this scale through autonomous systems.


“AI is no longer a tool. It analyses, decides, executes, and improves in real time. It will become our executive partner to enhance services, accelerate decisions, and raise efficiency,” the Dubai Ruler said in a post on X. “This transformation has a clear timeline. Two years. Performance across government will be measured by speed of adoption, quality of implementation, and mastery of AI in redesigning government work,” he continued. “We are investing in our people. Every federal employee will be trained to master AI, building one of the world’s strongest capabilities in AI-driven government. Implementation will be overseen by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, with a dedicated taskforce chaired by Mohammad Al Gergawi driving execution.

“The world is changing. Technology is accelerating. Our principle remains constant. People come first. Our goal is a government that is faster, more responsive, and more impactful,” Sheikh Mohammed added. nThe project includes a phased implementation across ministries and federal entities, based on continuous performance and impact assessment. This will pave the way for wider rollout, ensuring optimal results across the federal government. Special attention is placed on developing national capabilities by training and empowering government employees to master generative artificial intelligence technologies and their applications. Which of course is reflexive, so in effect government employees are supposed to train their own replacements.

Accroding to Khaleej Times, the move to adopt Agentic AI across government operations builds on 20 years of digital transformation in the UAE’s government, from the early adoption of eGovernment and service digitalization to mobile government and integrated systems such as the UAE Pass identity verification system to full-service redesign and integration, supported by programs such as Government Services 2.0, which introduced proactive, data driven service delivery.

In 2017, the UAE became the first country in the world to appoint a Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence and launched the UAE Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2031 under the UAE Centennial 2071 vision. The establishment of the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy and Remote Work Applications in 2020 further strengthened this direction. The UAE is especially well suited for agentic implementation: the Gulf state has spent more than a decade building digital infrastructure that connects government entities, making it one of the most advanced public service ecosystems globally. Platforms developed under entities such as UAE Government and Digital Dubai already allow residents to access hundreds of services online, from paying fines to registering businesses.

The latest plan shifts the focus from digitizing services to redesigning them, allowing AI systems to manage entire workflows rather than just assisting at specific stages. For residents, this changes the experience from navigating systems to simply requesting outcomes, with the complexity handled behind the scenes. While the progression reflects a broader pattern seen across advanced economies, the UAE is moving faster than most. The first phase involved putting services online, which reduced paperwork and eliminated many in-person visits.

The second phase introduced mobile apps, automation, and AI tools, improving speed and accessibility while still requiring users to manage processes themselves. The next phase moves beyond interfaces, with systems designed to complete tasks independently, meaning the user defines the objective and the system handles execution. Back in the US, a recent attempt through Elon Musk’s DOGE to cut back on government inefficiency and corruption came to an abrupt halt last summer when it became obvious that the deep state would fight to the death (or at least hire assassins to effect the death of others) to prevent any change in the well-paid status quo. Perhaps AI will succeed where everyone else has failed.

Read more …

“Again, this is all positioned to take on Nvidia ..”

Google Deepens Anthropic Bet With Up To $40 Billion Investment (ZH)

The AI funding frenzy continues, with Google planning to invest $10 billion in Anthropic at a $350 billion valuation, deepening its relationship with the San Francisco-based AI company best known for building Claude. Bloomberg reports that Google’s deal with Anthropic includes an initial $10 billion investment at a $350 billion valuation, with the potential for another $30 billion if certain performance milestones are achieved. That would bring the potential deal size to as much as $40 billion. Part of the deal includes Google Cloud providing 5 gigawatts of computing capacity to the AI startup, founded in 2021 by former OpenAI employees, including Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei, over the next five years. Additional capacity could follow.


Earlier this week, Amazon committed another $5 billion to Anthropic at the same valuation, with the option to invest an additional $20 billion over time. Amazon’s scramble for compute was detailed earlier in a deal with Meta: “Scramble For AI Compute: Meta Inks Multibillion-Dollar Deal With Amazon For CPU Chips”Bloomberg pointed out that the Google-Anthropic deal is an “expansion of an agreement announced earlier this month between Anthropic, Google, and Broadcom.” For Google, the agreement with Anthropic strengthens demand for its cloud services and in-house TPU chips, which have become viable alternatives to Nvidia’s AI chip stack.

Earlier this week, Google unveiled two new chips for the agentic era, including the TPU 8t, designed for training AI models, and the TPU 8i, designed for inference, or running AI services once they are developed and deployed. Again, this is all positioned to take on Nvidia. There has been increased scrutiny around “circular” AI financing since we broke down the math and called it an epic “circle jerk” last fall.

Read more …

Into the lion’s den.

China’s DeepSeek Debuts Flagship AI Model As Compute Race Intensifies (ZH)

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has launched a preview version of its long-awaited V4 model, ending months of silence from one of China’s most closely watched AI labs and arriving a year after its R1 release sparked U.S. market turmoil and concerns across Silicon Valley AI firms. The rollout signals that DeepSeek is full steam ahead in the frontier-model race:

https://twitter.com/deepseek_ai/status/2047516922263285776


The open-source model comes in the V4 Flash and V4 Pro series, with DeepSeek saying its V4 “leads all current open models, trailing only Gemini-3.1-Pro.” In terms of reasoning, the startup said it “beats all current open models in Math/STEM/Coding, rivaling top closed-source models.”

https://twitter.com/deepseek_ai/status/2047516926432399791

Counterpoint Research Vice President Neil Shah told CNBC that “DeepSeek’s V4 preview is a serious flex.” According to Counterpoint Principal AI Analyst Wei Sun, V4’s benchmark profile suggests the model could deliver “excellent agent capability at significantly lower cost.” Ivan Su, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar, told CNBC that V4’s debut is unlikely to deliver the same market shock as R1 did a little more than a year ago, largely because Wall Street has already priced in the view that Chinese AI can be built and deployed at a lower cost. Goldman analyst Christopher Moniz commented on the market reaction in overnight trading in China, where “GPU and domestic chip stocks rallied after DeepSeek unveiled preview versions of its latest V4 AI model.”

Moniz continued, “News of DeepSeek’s latest AI model created weakness in AI application names – Minimax (100 HK) -9.4% and Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK) -9.1%. Conversely, China domestic chipmakers spiked – HHS (1347 HK) +15.2% and SMIC (981 HK) +10%. Tencent (700 HK) -0.4% on mixed feedback regarding its new Hy3 model release, with locals noting it is less efficient than Minimax M2.7 launched a month ago”One key question is the chip stack behind V4: which chips it was trained on and which hardware it runs on during inference. Huawei has already claimed that its latest AI computing cluster, powered by Ascend AI processors, can support V4, suggesting that Beijing’s domestic AI hardware ecosystem is powering DeepSeek’s ongoing frontier-model push.

Read more …

He changed when he got rich.

Bruce Springsteen’s Land of Hope and Dreams No Longer Welcomes All (Perrotta)

The first time I heard Bruce Springsteen play “Land of Hope and Dreams” during his reunion tour of 1999, I nearly wept. Summoning the spirit of Woody Guthrie’s “Bound for Glory” and The Impressions’ gospel-tinged “People Get Ready,” the soul-soaring number evoked America as a train, with “this train” welcoming “saints and sinners,” “losers and winners,” “whores and thieves,” “losers and kings.” All aboard. Nearly 30 years “down the tracks,” Springsteen has launched his “Land of Hope and Dreams Tour.” Except now, instead of “all aboard,” it’s “No MAGA is welcome.”


On what he has openly dubbed a “very political opens in a new tab” tour, Springsteen unleashes a nightly diatribe against what he calls the “corrupt, incompetent, racist, reckless and treasonous”opens in a new tab president, while touting “No Kings.” (As if any tyrannical king would allow a mere musician to call him corrupt and treasonous without being hauled to the tower.) Lost in the huffing is the reality that President Donald Trump was elected by a majority of the American people. Elected by people who see him as a champion against the entrenched powers and global elites who have spent decades running them into the ground. Elected, in fact, by the very people Springsteen has made a king’s ransom writing about.

The people—white, black, yellow, and brown—proud to live in this “American Land,” who wave the American flag … not the communist flags, rainbow flags, and the flags of Hamas seen at No Kings. The blue-collar workers in “Youngstown” whose factories and mills got shut down … that Trump is busting tail to reopen. Trump did not “forget their name.” The oil workers from “Seeds” whose jobs were “gone, gone, gone” … but are now booming, booming, booming thanks to “Drill, baby, drill.” The “Born in the U.S.A.” veterans who’d been abandoned by the nation … but are now a priority rather than sex change operations for soldiers. Those from his “City in Ruins” … whose streets are safer, whose businesses are less burdened, whose children are being rescued from trans ideology and falling test scores.

You could say he’s thrown Mary and Wendy and Madam Marie, even Rosalita, over for the likes of Jane Fonda and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No, the type of people Springsteen wrote about are no longer welcome in Springsteen’s world—certainly not at his concert tour, even if they could afford the astronomical prices. Like pal former President Barack Obama scoffing at those who cling to their guns and religion, he holds them out to be simpletons manipulated and duped by the evil Orange Man.

Take ‘Streets of Minneapolis’ … Please
It’s no secret Springsteen is a leftist. He railed against nuclear power in the ’70s, Ronald Reagan in the ’80s, performed benefits for radical leftist groups in the ’90s, and spent the Biden years doing podcasts and cruising around in yachts with Obama while “This Hard Land” crumbled and Americans suffered.But what makes his current actions so disappointing is his refusal to play straight. Take, for example, his recent protest song “Streets of Minneapolis.”

The song is a condemnation of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a deification of Renée Good—the woman who gunned her car at an ICE agent and lost her life. He wrote and recorded the song immediately after hearing about the incident.nExcept Springsteen didn’t rush to write a “Streets of Chicago” about the innocent 18-year-old Sheridan Gorman, recently executed in the Windy City by an illegal immigrant—precisely the kind of illegal immigrant ICE is trying to remove from our country. No “Streets of Fort Myers” for the mother of two, bludgeoned to death with a hammer by an illegal immigrant from Haiti on April 3.

The Boss’s ‘War’ With Himself
Another example: Springsteen’s opening-night concert in Minneapolis began with Barrett Strong’s Vietnam-era anthem “War.” This led to a tirade about the “illegal” and “unconstitutional” war against Iran. Factually untrue—but more to the point, where is Springsteen’s “Streets of Tehran”?

He’s hot and bothered about Good and Alex Pretti, both of whom interfered with and accosted ICE agents, who arguably acted in self-defense, but not a single chord or word for the 30,000 protesters slaughtered like sheep in Iran? Or the surviving protesters who—thanks to Trump—may actually soon hear the “Chimes of Freedom”? (Another cover on the set list.) For that matter, Springsteen wasn’t out there singing “War” when his BFF Obama was bombing Libya for months on end. Or orchestrating an overthrow of the Ukrainian government, which helped lead to the bloody, endless war they’re in today. Or mucking up the Middle East, giving rise to ISIS.

Principle seems to have no role in Springsteen’s public politics. More disappointing, his hypocritical dismissal of a majority of Americans breaks the unspoken promise Springsteen made from the start of his career to “Be True” to his loyal audience. Count me among them.As he sings in “The Promise”: “When the promise is broken, and the truth makes no difference, something in your heart grows cold.”Still, Springsteen built up a Jersey-sized cache of goodwill over his half-century in the spotlight. And while he’s burning through that goodwill like drag racers burn rubber on “the fire roads and the interstate,” one can hope The Boss puts aside the TDS and meet us again in this Land of Hope and Dreams.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Jul 152022
 


Pablo Picasso Guernica [Study] III 1937

 

Old Way, New Way (Dmitry Orlov)
Russia Continues To Earn More By Exporting Less Oil (ZH)
Germany To Halt Russian Coal Imports Next Month (ZH)
Lithuania To Allow Rail Transit Of Russian Goods To Kaliningrad (ZH)
Three More Countries Set To Join BRICS (RT)
Two More Gone (CTH)
Macron’s Minority Government Defeated on Vaccine Passports (SN)
Don Lemon: Republicans Must Be Treated As Danger To Society By Media (Fox)
Donald Trump on 2024: ‘I’ve Already Made That Decision’ (NYMag)
“Disgruntled” Chinese Homebuyers Refuse To Pay Their Mortgages (ZH)
High Inflation Figure Masks Even Higher Cost Hikes Of Necessities (ET)
Long Lines Are Back At US Food Banks (AP)
Dutch State Broadcasters Attack Coverage Of The Dutch Uprising (TCS)
It’s About Globalism, Stupid (Maajid Nawaz)
US Public Health Agencies Aren’t ‘Following the Science,’ Officials Say (CS)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Health care

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Syria, which refused to get the message too, asked the Russians for help. The Russians helped Syria, and now nobody is afraid of the US any more. Meanwhile, the US became spoiled by all this free money, grew fat, lazy, degenerate and weak and amassed the hugest pile of “debt”…”

Old Way, New Way (Dmitry Orlov)

The hardest part of living through a time of wrenching change is that nobody particularly bothers to inform you that the times have changed and that nothing will be the same again. Certainly not the talking heads on TV, who are often the last to know. You have to figure it out for yourself if you can. But I am here to help. It all has to do with energy. Not with technology—that’s incidental; not with military superiority—that’s fleeting and largely imaginary; certainly not with any sort of political or cultural self-righteousness—that’s delusional. There is no substitute for energy. If you run low, you can’t switch to running your industrial economy on fiddlesticks. It just shuts down. What’s worse, energy sources are not even particularly substitutable for each other. If you run low on gas, you can’t just switch to coal or to dried dung, even if you are up to your neck in it.

Modern industry runs on oil, natural gas, and coal, in that order, and they can be substituted for each other in very limited ways. Furthermore, energy has to be very cheap. Oil has to be about the cheapest liquid you can buy—cheaper than milk; cheaper even than bottled water. If energy isn’t cheap enough, then all the energy-hungry industry that runs on it becomes unprofitable and shuts down. That’s the stage at which we are now in much of the world. So, what happened? Once upon a time the US produced most of the oil in the world. But then the prolific wells in West Texas ran out and Saudi Arabia took over as the biggest oil producer. But the US wasn’t about to take that sitting down and hatched an ingenuous plan: Saudi Arabia will sell its oil for printed US dollars, then take most of those dollars and give them back to the US by “investing” it in US “debt”.

Everybody else who needed oil had to figure out a way to earn US dollars to buy it, and any US dollars they had left over after buying oil also had to be used to buy up US debt just because: “Nice economy you have there! Now we wouldn’t want anything bad to happen to it, would we?” Indeed, a few people didn’t get the message (Saddam of Iraq, Qaddafi of Libya) and got their countries bombed. And a whole lot of other defenseless countries got bombed just to keep the others scared. But then Syria, which refused to get the message too, asked the Russians for help. The Russians helped Syria, and now nobody is afraid of the US any more. Meanwhile, the US became spoiled by all this free money, grew fat, lazy, degenerate and weak and amassed the hugest pile of “debt” (in quotes because there is no question of ever repaying it) in all of human history.

In the meantime Russia, being the largest energy-producing country in the world, decided that it has had enough. Under the old scheme, Russia exported its resources cheaply, spend 1/3 of the revenue on imports and allowed 2/3 to leak out of the country, quite a lot of it also used to buy US “debt”. It couldn’t do anything about this right away, and so it spent the last decade developing its military to a point where now the US/NATO are afraid to go near it and its economy to a point where it doesn’t need much of the imports, at least not for a few years. And then a silly thing happened: the US confiscated Russia’s holdings of US “debt,” making everyone in the world take notice and start dumping it—even the Japanese!—sending the entire financial scheme into a tailspin.

Meanwhile, Russia has started to switch from selling its energy exports for dollars and euros, which then leave the country, where they can be confiscated, to selling them for rubles, which stay inside the country. Do you want to buy some Russian energy? Well, figure out how to earn some rubles! And if your own anti-Russian sanctions prevent you from doing so—well, la-di-da, whose fault is that? Also, given that there is now a worldwide energy shortage, the Russians asked themselves: Why sell lots of oil and gas for a little money when you can sell less of them for more money?

Read more …

As Dmitry writes: “Do you want to buy some Russian energy? Well, figure out how to earn some rubles!”

Russia Continues To Earn More By Exporting Less Oil (ZH)

Russian export revenues in June rose by $700m to the $20 billion mark, despite that oil exports fell by 250k b/d m/m to 7.4m b/d, the lowest since August 2021, Bloomberg’s Sherry Su reports citing the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report. Compared to a post-war peak level in April, total Russian oil exports in June were down 530k b/d, Or 7%, but export revenues were up by $2.3 billion, or 13%. Crude oil exports were down by 250k b/d in June to just above 5m b/d, still slightly higher than the pre-war average level according to Su. Shipments to the EU fell below 3m b/d for the first time since November 2020, bringing the EU share of Russian oil exports to 40%, compared to 49% in January-February.


Crude oil loadings to EU destinations fell 190k b/d m/m to 1.8m b/d, partly because of lower offtake on the Druzhba pipeline due to maintenance at a Hungarian refinery in June. Meanwhile, product loadings to the European Union fell by 135k b/d to 1.13m b/d, the IEA said. The fall in crude oil volumes came mostly from lower loadings on the Black Sea, as Rosneft’s 240k b/d Tuapse refinery reportedly came back online in June after a three-month shutdown. Total product exports out of Russia were relatively unchanged in June. Diesel exports increased slightly m/m to 825k b/d, 300k b/d lower than the pre-war average. Diesel Loadings to EU countries ticked up to 650 kb/d, returning to January-February average levels.

Read more …

Assisted suicide.

Germany To Halt Russian Coal Imports Next Month (ZH)

Germany will stop importing Russian coal from August 1 and crude oil from December 31, the country’s deputy finance minister, Joerg Kukies said today, as quoted by Reuters. “We will be off Russian coal in a few weeks,” Kukies said at the Sydney Energy Forum, which is taking place this week. “Anyone who knows the history of the Druzhba pipeline, which was already a tool of the Soviet empire over eastern Europe, ridding yourself of that dependence is not a trivial matter, but it is one that we will achieve in a few months,” he added. Kukies admitted, however, that replacing Russian hydrocarbons, not only in Germany, will be no easy task, citing the fact that together, the United States and Qatar could only supply some 30 billion cu m of natural gas equivalent to Europe, which imports more than 150 billion cu m of Russian gas annually.

Despite the challenge, Germany is in a rush to build LNG import terminals so it can replace at least part of Russian gas imports with liquefied gas from abroad. The problem here is, however, tightening supplies, with Freeport LNG in the U.S. offline until at least September, and Shell’s Prelude in Australia shut down amid industrial action. Demand for gas in Germany and Europe as a whole remains strong as governments seek to fill up their gas storage caverns ahead of the next heating season. Germany, specifically, is also on edge after Gazprom stopped the flow of gas via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline this week for regularly scheduled maintenance. Fears are that it will not turn the taps back on once the maintenance is done.


The suspension of coal and oil purchases from Russia is a result of sanctions the EU placed on Moscow earlier this year, providing buyers of the commodities with a temporal cushion of six months for each, so they could stock up on coal and oil before the respective embargos kicked in.

Read more …

The European Commission has a tail between its legs.

Lithuania To Allow Rail Transit Of Russian Goods To Kaliningrad (ZH)

It seems that saner minds are prevailing after ratcheting rhetoric coming from Moscow threateningly elevated Lithuania’s effective blockade of all overland trade and goods to an ‘act of war’ by the West… as the European Union is now refusing to back the full extent of Lithuania’s sanctions enforcement measures. The European Commission issued its legal guidance on the standoff Wednesday, which had over the past month resulted in some one million Russian citizens in the exclave remaining cut off from products brought by rail and road. “The transit of sanctioned goods by road with Russian operators is not allowed under the EU measures. No such similar prohibition exists for rail transport,” the European Union executive said, specifying that Russian goods should continue to be allowed by train.

“The Commission underlines the importance of monitoring the two-way trade flows between Russia and Kaliningrad … to ensure that sanctioned goods cannot enter the EU customs territory,” it added, emphasizing further that the rail exception doesn’t apply to weapons or munitions. The ban on transit still exits for freight brought by road, however. The EU said further this should be done through “targeted, proportionate and effective controls and other appropriate measures.” There was the additional caveat to the ruling that EU trade sanctions would not apply as long as Russia’s transport volumes do not exceed averages of the last three years, according to the “the real demand for essential goods at the destination.” It remains that food and humanitarian goods were reportedly never subject to the sanctions, nor was travel of citizens back-and-forth.


Lithuania’s government soon after the EU legal advice was issued said that it would adhere to it, albeit perhaps grudgingly: “Lithuanian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday the previous trade rules, which blocked many sanctioned cargos from transport between mainland Russia and Kaliningrad, were “more acceptable”. “Kaliningrad transit rules may create an unjustified impression that the transatlantic community is softening its position and sanctions policy towards Russia”, the statement said. On Monday Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko during a phone call agreed to a “possible joint response” to the blockade of transit to Kaliningrad by Lithuania. Without elaborating on details, but sounding ominous given threat of near future action, a Kremlin statement said of the call, “Emphasis was placed on the situation relating to the illegal restrictions imposed by Lithuania on the transit of goods to the Kaliningrad Region. In this context, some possible joint steps were discussed.”

Read more …

As western governments fail and fall, “the other side” unites.

Iran, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt add another 350 million people to the 3.2 billion already in BRICS.

Three More Countries Set To Join BRICS (RT)

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt plan to join BRICS, and their potential membership bids could be discussed and answered at next year’s summit in South Africa, Purnima Anand, the president of the organization, told Russian media on Thursday. “All these countries have shown their interest in joining [BRICS] and are preparing to apply for membership. I believe this is a good step, because expansion is always looked upon favorably; it will definitely bolster BRICS’ global influence,” she told Russian newspaper Izvestia. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) account for over 40% of the global population and nearly a quarter of the world’s GDP. The bloc’s stated purposes include promoting peace, security, development, and cooperation globally, and contributing to the development of humanity.


Anand said the issue of expansion was raised during this year’s BRICS summit, which took place in late June in Beijing. The BRICS Forum president said she hopes the accession of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt will not take much time, given that they “are already engaged in the process,” though doubts that all three will join the alliance at the same time. “I hope that these countries will join the BRICS quite shortly, as all the representatives of core members are interested in expansion. So it will come very soon,” Anand added. The news of the three nations’ plans to join BRICS comes after Iran and Argentina officially applied for membership in late June, with Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh touting the bloc as a “very creative mechanism with broad aspects.”

Read more …

Italian president has refused Draghi’s resignation. Here’s why:

“President Sergio Mattarella cannot accept the prime minister’s resignation without himself departing. Mattarella only agreed to remain so long as the Draghi coalition would stand….”

Two More Gone (CTH)

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned. Days later, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated. A few days passed and both the President and Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, resigned and fled the country. Today, with their ruling governments in a state of turmoil, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi have both tendered their resignations. The collapse of each of these national leaders is not necessarily connected; however, the global political system is reverberating with tremors directly connected to the post-pandemic economic turmoil. It would be naïve not to see these governing issues as consequences. The legitimacy of the governing class is slipping; perhaps it would be fair to say, some have ‘lost’ their legitimacy altogether.

Estonia is part of the EU and a member of NATO. Italy is a member of the G7, a part of the EU and a member of NATO. The parliamentary coalitions are fracturing. New alliances are being formed. One recent example that stunned everyone in the EU was the far-right and far-left in the French parliament joining forces to defeat the coalition government of Emmanuel Macron as he tried, and failed, to extend emergency COVID rules. The COVID rules in France are set to expire on July 31st. The first parliamentary goal for President Macron was to extend the COVID emergency and keep his powers. However, the legislative effort was rejected by 219 votes to 195, destroying the goals of Macron. Both populist groups joined forces to defeat the Macron coalition.


Yes, amid all of the economic damage created by western leaders and their Build Back Better efforts, the geopolitical world is having spasms as the rulers are being rejected by the ruled. In the parliamentary systems, the voices of the angry people are rising up. Those shouts are entering the halls of government through the direct representatives closest to the people. The ruling coalitions are no longer able to hold together as the people demand change. That is the connective tissue behind these resignations and departures. Western government leaders like Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson and Jacinda Ardern have the audacity to stand atop a two-year mountain of unilateral fiats, rules, regulations and mandates and then decry “autocracy” and threats to the “global order.” All of them have destroyed their own legitimacy by pretending to represent western democracy while carrying out two years of totalitarian power.

Read more …

Little man just got a little littler..

Macron’s Minority Government Defeated on Vaccine Passports (SN)

French President Emmanuel Macron suffered a humiliating setback in parliament after his vaccine passport scheme was defeated. Macron’s minority government wanted to extend the policy whereby anyone entering France has to show proof of vaccination or a negative Covid test. However, the right-wing populist National Rally (RN), the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) and the right-wing Republicains (LR) all united to vote against the policy. Macron’s government lost the vote by a margin of 219 votes to 195. “The bill’s defeat was met with wild cheering and a standing ovation from opposition lawmakers, in footage that was widely circulated on social media,” reports the Telegraph. The bill was one of the first put to parliament by the new minority government, highlighting how Macron will find it incredibly difficult to get new laws passed in the country.


Elisabeth Borne, the French Prime Minister, condemned the vote. “The situation is serious. By joining together to vote against the measures to protect the French against Covid, LFI, LR and RN prevent any border control against the virus. After the disbelief on this vote, I will fight so that the spirit of responsibility wins in the Senate,” she tweeted. As we previously highlighted, the French Minister of Health admitted that vaccine passports are a “disguised” form of mandatory vaccines, despite President Macron claiming vaccine mandates “will not be compulsory.” On the first day the new program was in place, police in Paris were visibly patrolling bars and cafes demanding customers show proof they’ve had the jab. It later emerged that many businesses were refusing to enforce the scheme.

Read more …

He’s calling it out over himself.

Don Lemon: Republicans Must Be Treated As Danger To Society By Media (Fox)

Appearing on CNN’s New Day Thursday morning, Don Lemon once again urged the media to hold Republicans to a different standard than Democrats in their media coverage. The primetime host tied the GOP to the threat of “growing extremism” on the right. He warned journalists to not give a “false equivalence” to both sides, and instead acknowledge Republicans were endangering America. “We sit around and we talk about these things and we want to give this false equivalence to Democrats and Republicans. That is not where we are right now. Republicans are doing something that is very dangerous to our society and we have to acknowledge that. We have to acknowledge that as Americans, we must acknowledge that as journalists because if we don’t, we are not doing our jobs,” Lemon declared.

A Pew survey of nearly 12,000 journalists found that a majority of journalists, 55%, reject the idea that both sides “always deserve equal coverage.” Lemon was referring to Republicans who continue to support former President Trump after the January 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol, as well as the recent Supreme Court ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade. “They have to answer for those questions if they come here on CNN, they must answer for that. If they go on MSNBC, they must answer for that. If they go on ABC, they must answer for that. And they cannot expect to be coddled when they go on to a news organization or if they step in front of a crowd of supporters or voters or Americans.” He made a similar plea in June, saying, “we cannot pretend as journalists” that both sides are “equal.”


Lemon referred to an interview he did with a former spokesperson for the Oath Keepers saying Republicans had become associated with “extremists.” He rejected any Republican opposition to that belief. “You have the inmates running the asylum basically. You have the extremists because I know there are Republicans sitting out there going, ‘Don Lemon that’s not what we are.’ Maybe it’s not what you are but it’s what party has become and what you have allowed to happen,” he lectured.

Read more …

Excuse me?! “..the House Select Committee on January 6 (whose hearings are the runaway TV-ratings hit of the summer)..”

The runaway TV-ratings hit that nobody watches…

Donald Trump on 2024: ‘I’ve Already Made That Decision’ (NYMag)

Donald Trump was impeached twice, lost the 2020 election by 7,052,770 votes, is entangled in investigations by federal prosecutors (over the Capitol insurrection and over the mishandling of classified White House documents and over election interference) and the District of Columbia attorney general (over financial fraud at the Presidential Inaugural Committee) and the Manhattan district attorney (over financial fraud at the Trump Organization) and the New York State attorney general (over financial fraud at the Trump Organization) and the Westchester County district attorney (over financial fraud at the Trump Organization) and the Fulton County, Georgia, district attorney (over criminal election interference in Georgia) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (over rules violations in plans to take his social-media company public through a SPAC) and the House Select Committee on January 6 (whose hearings are the runaway TV-ratings hit of the summer), yet on Monday, July 11, he was in a fantastic mood.

It was a beautiful day in Bedminster, New Jersey, where the former president maintains a golf club and private estate to which he decamps when the Palm Beach humidity and the habits of snowbirds shut down Mar-a-Lago for the Mother’s Day–to–Labor Day summer season, and it had been a beautiful weekend, too, one he said affirmed the choice he had made about his own future, the future of the Republican Party, and — whether he wins this time or if he loses as sorely as before — the future of the American experiment. At a rally in Alaska on Saturday, he told me by phone, his fans were adoring. “More love,” in his words, “than I’ve ever had before.” His voice was humming with excitement. He was still in awe.

After all of this time, after so many rallies, so many crowds, so many winding speeches and chants of “Lock her up” and “USA” and “Build the wall” and the familiar sounds of “Tiny Dancer” and “Memory” (from Cats) and “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” and “YMCA” and that goofy little dance and the delusion and the fervor so great that it built up to an attack on the Capitol and the democratic process at the center of the Republic itself, the novelty of this had not faded. As a technical matter, the Anchorage event was on behalf of Sarah Palin and Kelly Tshibaka, Trump-endorsed candidates for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, respectively, but like all such endeavors, it was for its star a means of discerning through a vibe check what traditional polls could not so reliably or completely tell him.

And what it told him this time, he said, is that his voters — a portion of the electorate that he insists amounts to a majority of the country, though it does not — want to, and will, bring him back to power. “Look,” Trump said, “I feel very confident that, if I decide to run, I’ll win.”

Read more …

The Chinese didn’t buy real estate as an investment, but as an insurance. Xi must beware.

“Disgruntled” Chinese Homebuyers Refuse To Pay Their Mortgages (ZH)

While US snowflakes are all too happy to talk the talk (which remains free, even despite Biden’s hyperinflation), Chinese residents are increasingly walking the walk. First, it was the violent outcry against mandatory covid vaccines that put an end to Beijing’s desire to forcibly innoculate all Beijing residents in just 48 hours – a feat not all of America’s armed militias have been able to achieve, and now it’s a grassroots push for what appears to be a debt jubillee as millions of homeowners suddenly stop paying their mortgages, a shocking move that has sent shockwaves across China’s capital markets and has sparked panic within China’s political leadership circles.

As Bloomberg reports overnight, a rapidly increasing number of “disgruntled Chinese homebuyers” are refusing to pay mortgages for unfinished construction projects, exacerbating the country’s real estate woes and stoking fears that the crisis will spread to the wider financial system as countless mortgages default. According to researcher China Real Estate Information, homebuyers have stopped mortgage payments on at least 100 projects in more than 50 cities as of Wednesday, up from 58 projects on Tuesday and only 28 on Monday, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analysts including Shujin Chen. “The names on the list doubled every day in the past three days,” Chen wrote in a note published Thursday.


“The incident would dampen buyer sentiment, especially for presold products offered by private developers given the higher risk on delivery, and weigh on the gradual sales recovery.” What’s behind this grassroot movement to halt mortgage payments altogether? Negative equity: “Analysts believe that a drop in home values may be another driver for the refusal to meet mortgage payments. “Investors are concerned about the spread of mortgage payment snubs to buyers, simply due to lower property prices, and the impact on property sales,” Chen wrote. According to Citi analysts, average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years. Meanwhile, it’s only getting worse as China’s home prices fell for a ninth month in May, with June figures set for release Friday.

Read more …

Here comes Sri Lanka.

High Inflation Figure Masks Even Higher Cost Hikes Of Necessities (ET)

The June inflation figure of 9.1 percent, up half a percentage point from May and the highest since 1981, doesn’t tell half the story of how expensive life has become for Americans. The overall figure hides the fact that not all prices have risen uniformly and that products that have become especially expensive also happen to be the ones people usually can’t do without, such as food, fuel, and energy, according to Consumer Price Index data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Among foodstuffs, margarine and egg prices hiked the most over the 12 months ending in June, up more than 34 and 33 percent, respectively. Trailing behind were butter (up more than 21 percent), flour (up more than 19 percent), and chicken (up more than 18 percent). Milk and coffee were up about 16 percent.

Regular gasoline hiked more than 60 percent, diesel about 76 percent, and fuel oil, which many Americans use to heat their homes, nearly doubled in price. Natural gas went up more than 38 percent and electricity nearly 14 percent. The White House, through President Joe Biden’s Twitter account, on July 13 called the inflation figures “not acceptable” but “outdated,” noting that the average gasoline price had declined about 40 cents per gallon (about 8 percent) over the past 30 days. The products with the most prominent price hikes tend to also suffer supply issues. Gasoline production is constrained by the policies of the Biden administration and the financial elites more generally as part of their efforts to curb carbon emissions.

Egg production has been constrained by the avian flu outbreak that cut the number of laying hens by about 8 percent in recent months. Grain production has been hit with sky-high fertilizer prices and herbicide shortages. Higher grain prices, in turn, show up not only in bakery goods and flour, but also in the cost of animal feed, which then hits meat and milk prices, too. Normally, consumers respond to higher prices by tightening their belts—consuming less—which in turn leads prices down. But because of the lavish federal spending packages during the COVID-19 pandemic, consumer demand has been artificially boosted. Prices will have to go up relatively steeply for another year or two before the productivity of the economy catches up with all the newly printed money, some economists have predicted.

Some prices, it appears, have already peaked. Beef steaks, for instance, hiked by more than 30 percent between October 2019 and October 2021 but are down about 5 percent since then. Similarly, car and truck rental prices went up more than 70 percent from July 2020 to July 2021 but have since dropped by about 11 percent.

Read more …

Those lines will get much longer.

Long Lines Are Back At US Food Banks (AP)

Long lines are back at food banks around the U.S. as working Americans overwhelmed by inflation turn to handouts to help feed their families. With gas prices soaring along with grocery costs, many people are seeking charitable food for the first time, and more are arriving on foot. Inflation in the U.S. is at a 40-year high and gas prices have been surging since April 2020, with the average cost nationwide briefly hitting $5 a gallon in June. Rapidly rising rents and an end to federal COVID-19 relief have also taken a financial toll. The food banks, which had started to see some relief as people returned to work after pandemic shutdowns, are struggling to meet the latest need even as federal programs provide less food to distribute, grocery store donations wane and cash gifts don’t go nearly as far.

[..] The Phoenix food bank’s main distribution center doled out food packages to 4,271 families during the third week in June, a 78% increase over the 2,396 families served during the same week last year, said St. Mary’s spokesman Jerry Brown. More than 900 families line up at the distribution center every weekday for an emergency government food box stuffed with goods such as canned beans, peanut butter and rice, said Brown. St. Mary’s adds products purchased with cash donations, as well as food provided by local supermarkets like bread, carrots and pork chops for a combined package worth about $75.

Distribution by the Alameda County Community Food Bank in Northern California has ticked up since hitting a pandemic low at the beginning of this year, increasing from 890 households served on the third Friday in January to 1,410 households on the third Friday in June, said marketing director Michael Altfest. At the Houston Food Bank, the largest food bank in the U.S. where food distribution levels earlier in the pandemic briefly peaked at a staggering 1 million pounds a day, an average of 610,000 pounds is now being given out daily. That’s up from about 500,000 pounds a day before the pandemic, said spokeswoman Paula Murphy said.

Murphy said cash donations have not eased, but inflation ensures they don’t go as far. Food bank executives said the sudden surge in demand caught them off guard. “Last year, we had expected a decrease in demand for 2022 because the economy had been doing so well,” said Michael Flood, CEO for the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank. “This issue with inflation came on pretty suddenly.” “A lot of these are people who are working and did OK during the pandemic and maybe even saw their wages go up,” said Flood. “But they have also seen food prices go up beyond their budgets.”

Read more …

Well, Rutte says in the Davos video at the bottom that he wants to buy the press.. Sorry the other video is mostly in Dutch.

Dutch State Broadcasters Attack Coverage Of The Dutch Uprising (TCS)

In a video entitled “The Great Reset: the recurring fabrications,” Nieuwsuur, a program produced by government broadcasters, claims that Bexte travelled to the Netherlands to perpetuate supposed conspiracy theories, saying that the WEF has “absolutely nothing” to do with the “nitrogen crisis” — by which they mean the nitrogen policy to cut emissions by 50% and destroy farmers’ livelihoods. “These bloggers from far-right websites have travelled to the Netherlands especially to see that image confirmed,” the host says before playing a clip of Bexte talking about the WEF’s support for the career-destroying nitrogen policy being protested. “But the WEF has absolutely nothing to do with the nitrogen crisis,” he continues. “It was the highest judge who ordered the Netherlands to comply with the nitrogen standards of the European Union.”


Yes, but where did the “nitrogen standards” of the European Union come from? The nitrogen policy that was introduced is just one of many policies being brought forth by the EU to better align with the UN’s radical Sustainable Development Goals to cut all emissions, which is itself part of the UN’s Agenda 2030. According to the European Commission’s website, “Sustainable development is a core principle of the Treaty on European Union and a priority objective for the Union’s internal and external policies. The United Nations 2030 Agenda includes 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) intended to apply universally to all countries.” Moreover, in an EU briefing entitled “European policies on climate and energy towards 2020, 2030 and 2050,” the European Parliament states the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals will impact European policy, specifically regarding climate policy:

“Within the framework of the commitments laid down in the Paris Agreement, in November 2018, the European Commission published a new long-term strategy which confirms Europe’s commitment to lead on global climate action and to achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, through a socially fair transition in a cost-efficient manner… The strategy does not intend to launch new policies, nor does the European Commission intend to revise the 2030 targets. It is rather meant to set the direction of transition of EU climate and energy policy, and to frame what the EU considers as its long-term contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement temperature objectives, in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which will further affect a wider set of EU policies.”

Now, who has been a core contributor in shaping the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals? Why, the World Economic Forum, of course. In 2019, the WEF and UN signed a strategic partnership “to accelerate the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.” “The new Strategic Partnership Framework between the United Nations and the World Economic Forum has great potential to advance our efforts on key global challenges and opportunities, from climate change, health and education to gender equality, digital cooperation and financing for sustainable development,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the time.


So, yes. If the Netherlands is abiding by the EU’s climate policies, and the EU’s climate policies are based on the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, and the WEF signed a partnership with the UN to control what these goals are, I think it’s safe to say that the WEF absolutely has something to do with the nitrogen policy being protested right now.

Read more …

People observe and interpret. Be careful with that.

It’s About Globalism, Stupid (Maajid Nawaz)

1) Framing is Everything – i) It is No Longer About Brexit – Contrary to what you will read, the UK leadership race is no longer about Brexit. Brexit is done. It will not be undone. Even Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has told his party that Brexit will not be reversed. This is not to say that Brexit is no longer relevant. It is relevant. It is to say instead that Brexit is not the main impetus for the domestic palace coup that has just unfolded against outgoing PM Boris Johnson.

ii) It is No Longer About Covid – This leadership challenge is also no longer about Covid. The Covid control mechanisms of emergency legislation, supply-chain disruption and the weaponisation of Big Pharma have already served their purpose. As with Brexit, the UK is unlikely to go backwards on Covid policy. Any intervention now from the authorities about Covid will again only serve to keep opponents stuck fighting our last battle, just as the state launches its next psychological war against its own population. This is not to say that Covid policy is no longer relevant. It is relevant. Rather, it is to say again that Covid is not the main impetus for the domestic palace coup that has just unfolded against outgoing PM Boris Johnson.

iii) It is No Longer About War in Ukraine – The UK leadership contest is also not about the war in Ukraine. A keen observer will already notice corporatist media spin turning against deeper involvement, as well as the establishment-liberal US outlets turning sour on Biden. The Ukraine war has served its purpose. Billions have been laundered. Global food and gas shortages have been precipitated. This is not to say that Russia and Ukraine are no longer relevant. They are relevant. This is to say instead that war in Ukraine is not the main impetus for the domestic palace coup that has just unfolded against outgoing PM Boris Johnson. And so what exactly is going on in Britain? Arriving at an answer is only possible if the globalist playbook is understood first.

2) The Global Uprising: Centralisation vs Decentralisation: – Division has been sown after Brexit. Civil norms has been crushed after Covid. The ‘means of production’ have been disrupted after war in Ukraine. What comes next is the purpose they all served: the Great Reset. Combined, these cumulative crises of monumental fiscal suicide, unprecedented supply chain disruption and food and energy shortages are in danger of causing the collapse of the global financial system, sparking truly unprecedented global uprisings. In fact, we are already witnessing this.

[..] The collapse of the global financial system now appears inevitable. It actually collapsed in 2008. What has proceeded since then is merely the execution of a carefully planned, if not vicious, controlled demolition. The demolition is orchestrated by WEF establishment globalists so that their own controlled opposition may steer this global reset towards further centralised tyranny, as opposed to allowing it to enable decentralised democracy. Popular resistance will now be used as a pretext to clamp down and suspend liberty by rolling out militarised forces to subjugate the very conveniently rebelling citizens. [..] This is how the global financial establishment seeks to ride the current global revolution in order to retain their power. We are at the end of a natural generational cycle: a historic turning. We are witnessing the ‘reset’ part of Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset. They have told us what they plan to do. After the reset they will seek to ‘Build Back Better’ in order to create their New World Order.

Read more …

Marty Makary M.D., M.P.H. and Tracy Beth Høeg M.D., Ph.D.

“I can’t tell you how many people at the FDA have told me, ‘I don’t like any of this, but I just need to make it to my retirement.’”

US Public Health Agencies Aren’t ‘Following the Science,’ Officials Say (CS)

The calls and text messages are relentless. On the other end are doctors and scientists at the top levels of the NIH, FDA and CDC. They are variously frustrated, exasperated and alarmed about the direction of the agencies to which they have devoted their careers. “It’s like a horror movie I’m being forced to watch and I can’t close my eyes,” one senior FDA official lamented. “People are getting bad advice and we can’t say anything.” That particular FDA doctor was referring to two recent developments inside the agency. First, how, with no solid clinical data, the agency authorized Covid vaccines for infants and toddlers, including those who already had Covid. And second, the fact that just months before, the FDA bypassed their external experts to authorize booster shots for young children.

That doctor is hardly alone. At the NIH, doctors and scientists complain to us about low morale and lower staffing: The NIH’s Vaccine Research Center has had many of its senior scientists leave over the last year, including the director, deputy director and chief medical officer. “They have no leadership right now. Suddenly there’s an enormous number of jobs opening up at the highest level positions,” one NIH scientist told us. (The people who spoke to us would only agree to be quoted anonymously, citing fear of professional repercussions.) The CDC has experienced a similar exodus. “There’s been a large amount of turnover. Morale is low,” one high level official at the CDC told us. “Things have become so political, so what are we there for?” Another CDC scientist told us: “I used to be proud to tell people I work at the CDC. Now I’m embarrassed.”

Why are they embarrassed? In short, bad science. The longer answer: that the heads of their agencies are using weak or flawed data to make critically important public health decisions. That such decisions are being driven by what’s politically palatable to people in Washington or to the Biden administration. And that they have a myopic focus on one virus instead of overall health. Nowhere has this problem been clearer—or the stakes higher—than on official public health policy regarding children and Covid. First, they demanded that young children be masked in schools. On this score, the agencies were wrong. Compelling studies later found schools that masked children had no different rates of transmission. And for social and linguistic development, children need to see the faces of others.

Next came school closures. The agencies were wrong—and catastrophically so. Poor and minority children suffered learning loss with an 11-point drop in math scores alone and a 20% drop in math pass rates. There are dozens of statistics of this kind. Then they ignored natural immunity. Wrong again. The vast majority of children have already had Covid, but this has made no difference in the blanket mandates for childhood vaccines. And now, by mandating vaccines and boosters for young healthy people, with no strong supporting data, these agencies are only further eroding public trust. One CDC scientist told us about her shame and frustration about what happened to American children during the pandemic: “CDC failed to balance the risks of Covid with other risks that come from closing schools,” she said. “Learning loss, mental health exacerbations were obvious early on and those worsened as the guidance insisted on keeping schools virtual. CDC guidance worsened racial equity for generations to come. It failed this generation of children.” An official at the FDA put it this way: “I can’t tell you how many people at the FDA have told me, ‘I don’t like any of this, but I just need to make it to my retirement.’”

Read more …

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Morales
https://twitter.com/i/status/1547604089705353218

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in virustime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

Jan 212021
 


Jackson Pollock Man with knife 1938-40

 

WHO Warns That PCR COVID Tests Are More Likely To Give False Positives (PM)
No Decline In Very High COVID Rates During 1st Week Of UK’s 3rd Lockdown (ITV)
France Issues Warning Over Use Of Homemade Masks Against New Variants (G.)
Biden To Sign 53 Executive Orders In First 10 Days (Hill)
Inaugural Display Symbolizing 56 US States, Territories (JTN)
Globalist “Manifesto” For Post-Trump Economic “Reset” (ZH)
Biden Will Recognize Guaido As Venezuela’s Leader – Blinken (R.)
US To Keep Embassy In Jerusalem – Blinken (AlJ)
John Brennan’s ‘List’ Of Ideologies Biden Intel Community Should Go After (ZH)
Call For New “Secret Police” Force to Spy on Trump Supporters (SN)
Silicon Valley CEOs Can’t Decide Laws And Rules – EU Commission President (RT)
Germany Enacts Major Overhaul of Its Competition Regime for the Digital Era (WSGR)
The Fed’s Inconvenient Truth: Inflation Is “M.I.A.” (RIA)

 

 

We went from 24/7 negative about Trump to 24/7 positive about Joe Biden. And then they’ll find out that 24/7 positive does not induce clickbait. And then what happens after that?

And really? J-Lo singing Woody Guthrie to celebrate the DC culture?

 

 

Here’s the state of your media for the next 4 years:

 

 

Today’s best meme:

 

 

They’re actually going to do it, they’re going to lower the PCR cycle threshold as soon as Biden comes in? That would be hilarious.

“The notice was released only one hour after President Joe Biden was sworn into office..”

WHO Warns That PCR COVID Tests Are More Likely To Give False Positives (PM)

The World Health Organization issued a notice on Wednesday warning medical professionals to follow instructions of PCR tests for coronavirus to avoid getting false positive results. The notice was released only one hour after President Joe Biden was sworn into office, leading some observers to question the timing of the release. If the PCR tests are resulting in false-positives, and that information is now used to mitigate the large positivity numbers, the number of case counts will begin to drop. The optics of a decreasing COVID-case count would be a boon for the launch of the Biden administration. The new guidance states that the “WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2).”


The notice reads: “This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.” Former President Donald Trump has been heavily criticized for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, with the United States leading the world in both total cases and total deaths, although not per capita, according to official statistics. A big problem for Trump had been the continuous increase in COVID-case counts. If many of those cases were established as extant with the help of PCR tests that were resulting in false-positives, that would mean that the case count for which Trump was criticized was not a factual number.

Read more …

In the UK, this will be a bitter fight.

No Decline In Very High COVID Rates During 1st Week Of UK’s 3rd Lockdown (ITV)

The spread of coronavirus did not decline during the first week of England’s third lockdown, a study has shown. The latest React study, from Imperial College London and Ipsos Mori, states that during the initial 10 days of the third Covid-19 lockdown in England, “prevalence of coronavirus was very high with no evidence of decline”. Researchers also found that the prevalence of Covid-19 across England increased by 50% between early December and the second week of January. After testing more than 142,900 volunteers in England between January 6 and 15, they found that one in 63 people were infected. The report, which researchers said does not yet reflect the impact of the national lockdown, also showed there were “worrying suggestions of a recent uptick in infections”.


National prevalence of the virus increased by half, from 0.91% in early December to 1.58%, the latest React study showed. While there was a rise in prevalence across all adult age groups, it was highest in 18- to 24-year-olds, and more than doubled in the over 65s age group. London saw the highest regional prevalence, jumping from 1.21% to 2.8%, while there were also rises in the south east, east of England, West Midlands, south west and north west. The only region to see a decrease was Yorkshire and the Humber, and prevalence remained stable in the East Midlands and north east, but the researchers warned infection numbers are still high even in these areas. Additionally, they found large household sizes, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and areas with higher numbers of black and Asian individuals were associated with increased prevalence.

Read more …

Better masks only make sense when a virus is more easily transmitted? None of the below makes sense.

France Issues Warning Over Use Of Homemade Masks Against New Variants (G.)

French health officials have advised people against wearing home-made fabric masks as they offer less protection against highly contagious new Covid-19 variants. The scientific committee, which reports back to the French government, says category 2 masks are unlikely to halt the spread of the “English variant” or new coronavirus strains from Brazil and South Africa. The experts’ advice, presented to ministers on Monday but not published, also suggested France double its social distancing rule from 1m to 2m. France’s Haut Conseil de Santé Publique (high council for public health – HCSP) decided over the weekend that many cloth masks, often preferred because they can be washed and reused, did not guarantee protection against the new variants. “Category 2 or material masks only filter 70%, while category 1 masks, like surgical masks, can go as high as 95% if worn properly.


As the variant is more easily transmitted, it is logical to use masks with the highest filtering power,” Daniel Camus, of the Pasteur Institute in Lille and a HCSP member told France Info. “We are not questioning the masks used up to now … but as we have no new weapons against them (new strains) the only thing we can do is to improve the weapons we already have,” Camus added. Home-made barrier masks made under Europe-wide established specifications are consider category 1. However, even though they are subject to making them more efficient filters, the HSPC said they may not guarantee the correct level of protection. Didier Lepelletier, the co-president of the committee’s Covid-19 working group, said everyone should now choose category 1 masks adding that home-made masks “have not been tested in terms of their performance”.

Read more …

“Restoring America’s Place in the World”

-Rejoin Paris accord
-Fortify DACA
-Undo Muslim ban
-Stop border wall
-Order unified Covid response
-Eviction/foreclosure freeze —> 3/31
-Extend student loan pause —> 9/30
-Rescind Trump’s 1776 commish
-Undo Trump EO on Census

Biden To Sign 53 Executive Orders In First 10 Days (Hill)

President Biden is poised to take action on 53 executive items over the next 10 days as he seeks to rapidly reverse some Trump administration policies and implement his own, according to a document outlining the schedule for Biden’s first two weeks in office. The document, which was circulated to individuals close to the administration and obtained by The Hill, shows that Biden will take executive action each weekday through the end of January, with each day centered around specific themes such as climate, economic relief, health care and immigration. The timetable lays out which days Biden is expected to act on anticipated items such as reversing the Mexico City policy, creating a task force to reunite separated migrant families and establishing a policing commission.

The schedule notes that the specifics of certain executive actions are to be determined, reflecting how the Biden team is still hashing out details as it takes office following delays in the transition after the November election. The themes are expected to extend into February, which has been designated around the idea of “Restoring America’s Place in the World,” according to the document. This week, Wednesday’s theme is focused on the inauguration and addressing “four crises” — the coronavirus pandemic, climate, the economy and equity. Among the items Biden will sign are an order mandating masks be worn on federal lands, an extension of eviction moratoriums, a repeal of Trump’s travel ban and a proclamation halting border wall construction.

Thursday’s theme will focus on the pandemic, according to the document. Biden is expected to sign off on executive orders to review the supply chain ahead of any use of the Defense Production Act and to implement public health measures on public transportation, airplanes and trains. Friday’s theme is economic relief, with two executive orders expected to be signed, according to the document. One will direct agencies to take action on Medicaid, Pell grants and unemployment insurance, while the other will restore collective bargaining rights to federal employees and initiate a rollback of a Trump administration rule on Schedule F. The theme for Monday is “Buy American,” and Biden will sign one executive order seeking to ensure agencies use U.S. suppliers.

Read more …

Or it may be nothing.

Inaugural Display Symbolizing 56 US States, Territories (JTN)

President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration decor touting 56 U.S. states and territories provokes new questions about whether Biden will push for new statehood for six U.S. territories, which could aid the Democratic Party in the Electoral College. Under the U.S. Constitution, statehood requires only a simple majority in Congress, which could be achieved if Democrats decide to remove the 60-vote filibuster threshold currently in place in the Senate. As part of the “Field of Flags” display at the National Mall ahead of Biden’s inauguration, the Presidential Inaugural Committee planted nearly 200,000 state and territory flags on Monday night, meant to represent the American people unable to travel to Washington, D.C., for Inauguration Day due to the COVID-19 pandemic and security threats.

Fifty-six pillars of neon blue light, representing the U.S. states and territories, were also lit up for 46 seconds to mark the inauguration of the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden. The prominent light beams were reminiscent of the grounds of the 9/11 Memorial in Manhattan. Biden has said he supports statehood for Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. Other U.S. territories with permanent civilian populations include Guam, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

[..] Historian Jason Steinhauer told Just the News on Tuesday that the National World War II Memorial “serves as a useful reference point for the Field of Flags display” because it contains 56 pillars representing each state and territory from its period, including the District of Columbia. Those 56 pillars represented a different assortment of states and territories from that time period: 48 states, plus the territories of Alaska and Hawaii, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Steinhauer noted that memorial opened in 2004, during the George W. Bush administration.

Read more …

In case you wondered who won.

Globalist “Manifesto” For Post-Trump Economic “Reset” (ZH)

Proponents of the QAnon “conspiracy theory,” which the NYT can’t seem to stop writing about, are going to love seeing this. A memo that has reportedly been circulating among policymakers on both sides of the aisle for weeks was finally released to the press on Tuesday when Dealbook editor and CNBC “Squawk Box” host Andrew Ross Sorkin got the scoop: a memo penned by a group of senior-level bureaucrats, including – who else? – Henry Kissinger and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has provided a kind of “blueprint” for the Biden Administration to undo all of President Trump’s trade-war tactics and other policies that didn’t exactly help promote free trade.

As Trump recounted in his farewell video published earlier Tuesday afternoon, his administration dramatically altered the American trade landscape, pulling the US out of the TPP, renegotiating Nafta into the USMCA, and – most consequentially, at things would turn out – the trade war with China, which inspired waves of hysterical lobbying by the Chamber of Commerce and special-interest groups from Big Tech to Wal-Mart and other major retailers, and others. So, as Biden prepares his first 100-day blitz of policy directives, many of the architects of the globalist system created by groups like the Trilateral Commission are joining with a gaggle of former cabinet-level officials (both Dems and GOP) along with the CEO of one of America’s largest banks, former British Labour Party Prime Minister Tony Blair and – who else? – Henry Kissinger, have essentially penned a manifesto that is being circulated among lawmakers, along with top-level officials in the cabinet and the West Wing, to help restore the globalist system that Trump helped to disrupt.

Who better to leak the story to than Andrew Sorkin, who first brought up the existence of the memo during an interview during Tuesday morning’s episode of “Squawk Box” on CNBC during a conversation with Harvard economist Austan Goolsbee. According to Sorkin’s column, “the memo comes from an under-the-radar group of global boldfaced names that act as a private advisory committee to JPMorgan Chase. They include Tony Blair, the former British prime minister; Condoleezza Rice and Henry Kissinger, two former secretaries of state; Robert Gates, the former secretary of defense; Alex Gorsky, chief executive of Johnson & Johnson; Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH; and Joseph C. Tsai, executive vice chairman of Alibaba, among others.” The group, which even Sorkin concedes is exclusively staffed with members of the “globalist part of the globalist establishment that fell out of favor during the Trump years, typically meets once a year in a far-flung location with JPMorgan’s chief, Jamie Dimon.”

Read more …

But we’ll keep the craziest stuff.

Biden Will Recognize Guaido As Venezuela’s Leader – Blinken (R.)

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s administration will continue to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the South American country’s president, Anthony Blinken, Biden’s nominee for secretary of state, said on Tuesday. Blinken told members of the U.S. Senate that Biden would seek to “more effectively target” sanctions on the country, which aim to oust President Nicolas Maduro – who retains control of the country. Blinken said the new administration would look at more humanitarian assistance to the country. The United States, along with dozens of other countries, recognized Guaido – the leader of Venezuela’s opposition-held National Assembly – as the country’s president in January 2019, arguing Maduro’s 2018 re-election was rigged.


“We need an effective policy that can restore Venezuela to democracy, starting with free and fair elections,” Blinken said. Guaido’s push to oust Maduro – who has overseen a collapse in the once-prosperous OPEC nation’s economy and stands accused of corruption and human rights violations – has stalled. Maduro calls Guaido a U.S.-puppet seeking to oust him in a coup. His allies have expressed a desire to engage in negotiations with the Biden administration after years of tensions and escalating U.S. sanctions.

Read more …

Remember the loud protests?

US To Keep Embassy In Jerusalem – Blinken (AlJ)

The incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden will keep the US embassy in Israel in Jerusalem, his nominee for secretary of state affirmed at his Senate confirmation hearing. “Do you agree that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and do you commit that the United States will keep our embassy in Jerusalem?” asked Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. “Yes and Yes,” said Antony Blinken in testimony on Tuesday. Outgoing President Donald Trump announced the US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017. The US moved its embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May of the following year.


Jerusalem remains at the heart of the decades-long Middle East conflict, with the Palestinian Authority (PA) insisting that East Jerusalem – illegally occupied by Israel since 1967 – should serve as the capital of a Palestinian state. “The only way to ensure Israel’s future as a Jewish, democratic state and to give the Palestinians a state to which they are entitled is through the so-called two-state solution,” Blinken said. “I think realistically, it’s hard to see near-term prospects for moving forward on that. What would be important is to make sure that neither party takes steps that make the already difficult process even more challenging,” he added.

Read more …

The scariest face of them all. And that’s saying something.

John Brennan’s ‘List’ Of Ideologies Biden Intel Community Should Go After (ZH)

Well this is alarming and ominous to say the least… Former CIA Director John Brennan told MSNBC in an interview on inauguration day that the intelligence community under newly sworn in President Biden is “moving in laser-like fashion” to try and uncover dangerous plots against the country. Naturally, there’s been much of this worrisome commentary about what political ideologies should be targeted and monitored coming out of NatSec hawks in the wake of the Capitol Hill mayhem of January 6. But this is the first time such a broad array of groups have been so bluntly lumped into a Pro-Trump “insurgency” by an influential media pundit and former spook. Brennan expressly said they are “violent” and remain a domestic threat.


He said in the MSNBC interview without the least concern for violation of Americans’ rights that intelligence agencies should look into “religious extremists, authoritarians, fascists, bigots, racists, nativists, even libertarians…”. He said these belief systems have come together under the umbrella of a supposed pro-Trump movement capable of committing violence. Ah yes, “even libertarians”… “I had white knuckles because of the nature of the threats,” he began by recalling his days as CIA Director. We’ve seen “the growth of this polarization in the United States and domestic violence and White supremacist groups,” he continued. Comparing this “threat” to a foreign insurgency which the US has lately battled overseas, he said it— “brings together an unholy alliance of religious extremists, authoritarians, fascists, bigots, racists, nativists, even libertarians.”

Read more …

“Neither the FBI nor the NSA has the culture of brutal hostility toward their own country’s population needed to efficiently repress dissidents in the unfolding police state.”

Call For New “Secret Police” Force to Spy on Trump Supporters (SN)

Perhaps channeling the spirit of the Soviet NKVD, leftists are now literally calling for a new “secret police” unit to be created at the federal level to spy on Trump supporters. In an article published by the Daily Beast, Jeff Stein argues that existing federal agencies like the FBI are ill-equipped to stop “white terror” because they missed signs of the the pre-planning of the Capitol building siege. The solution is to create a new “secret police” (yes, he literally uses those words) in order to “infiltrate and neutralize armed domestic extremists,” which according to the media’s latest narrative potentially includes 70 million Trump voters.

Stein even compares the Capitol breach to 9/11, an attack that killed nearly 3,000 people, and argues that a similar response to that should be directly inwardly against American citizens directed by a new “domestic spy agency.” “One response to the 9/11 tragedy may well get renewed attention after the Capitol assault—especially if armed white nationalists are successful in carrying out more attacks in the coming days and weeks: The call for a secret police,” he writes. The existence of a “secret police” force that subverts constitutional norms to repress the population is of course a hallmark of all dictatorial regimes, but that doesn’t appear to bother self-proclaimed “progressives.”

“Hundreds of Black Lives Matter/Antifa riots, some of which entailed firing mortars at, firebombing, or burning down police stations, did not qualify as domestic terrorism. But the Capitol Riot was terrorism, due to the usual double standard,” points out Dave Blount. He also hits the nail on the head about the real reason why the creation of a new secret police unit would be necessary. “Neither the FBI nor the NSA has the culture of brutal hostility toward their own country’s population needed to efficiently repress dissidents in the unfolding police state.”

Read more …

Told, you, they will regret the Trump ban. Genie’s out of the bottle.

Mind you, she also said: “After four long years, Europe has a friend in the White House.”

Silicon Valley CEOs Can’t Decide Laws And Rules – EU Commission President (RT)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has sent a message to US tech companies ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, warning that Silicon Valley CEOs can’t decide their own laws and rules.
During a speech delivered in the European Parliament, von der Leyen laid out a series of areas in which the European Union (EU) is hoping to work with the incoming Biden administration, including climate change and the regulation of American-based tech companies that have an international reach. The EU has been working to introduce global standards for digital companies that provide a clear set of rules and responsibilities for the way they operate and the content that is distributed via their sites. However, rebuffing suggestions from tech giants to allow them to moderate themselves, von der Leyen was clear that governments must now intervene.


“This kind of decision must be taken in accordance with laws and rules…not by an arbitrary decision in the power of Silicon Valley CEOs.” Citing the recent attack on the US Capitol and linking the behavior of those President Donald Trump supporters to division and disinformation that appeared online, von der Leyen said in a tweet that regulation must be imposed on social media sites to “ensure that hate & fake news can no longer spread unchecked.” This is not the first time that the EU has sought to control the power of social media companies and tech giants. Google has been a target of the EU’s antitrust body in recent years, with the search engine having been hit with over $9 billion of fines, and further investigations are underway.

Read more …

Germany does it “gründlich”.

Germany Enacts Major Overhaul of Its Competition Regime for the Digital Era (WSGR)

On January 18, 2021, the 10th amendment of the German Act against Restraints of Competition (ARC) entered into force. The so-called “ARC Digitization Act,” designed to modernize German competition law enforcement for the era of big-data, i) creates sweeping new powers for the Federal Cartel Office (FCO) to regulate digital platform companies; ii) expands prohibitions on abuses of market power by firms with “relative market power” and firms that refuse access to data, networks, or infrastructure; and iii) raises the thresholds for German merger control. Because of the potential that large technology companies could be required to make dramatic changes to their current business practices, the FCO is poised to become one of the most consequential competition agencies for large technology companies.

Indeed, FCO President Mundt has repeatedly emphasized the willingness and readiness of his authority “not to squander the head start” and to apply the new rules soon after their entry into force. Under the new Section 19a of the ARC, the FCO gains novel powers to designate certain companies as having “paramount significance for competition across markets.” Upon making such a designation, the FCO can then order such companies to cease engaging in prohibited types of conduct, such as self-preferencing. The ARC Digitization Act also introduces changes to the burden of proof and the appeals process, designed to enhance the FCO’s ability to take swift action. The FCO may issue a decision declaring an undertaking to be of paramount significance for competition across markets.

The factors the FCO may consider in making this determination include:
• its dominant position in one or more markets;
• its financial strength or its access to other resources;
• its vertical integration and its activities on otherwise related markets;
• its access to data relevant for competition; and
• the importance of its activities for third parties’ access to supply and sales markets and its related influence on third parties’ business activities.

The qualitative nature of these factors provides the FCO with considerable discretion in making Section 19a declarations. As clarified by the German legislators’ explanatory memo, only a small number of (digital) “ecosystems” is likely to fulfill the threshold of having such “paramount significance.”2 The intended targets of the new rules are large and “often dominant” digital platform companies “with the resources and strategic position to significantly influence the commercial activities of third parties or expand their own activities to new markets and sectors.”3 We expect that the FCO will initially target “GAFA” and a few other (mostly U.S.-based) digital platforms.

Read more …

An old favorite theme of mine: What if money doesn’t move?

The Fed’s Inconvenient Truth: Inflation Is “M.I.A.” (RIA)

“The amount of money in the US economy is 25% higher than it was at the start of 2020, eclipsing any pace of money growth seen since the Federal Reserve was established (1913)” RB Advisors Deputy CIO Dan Suzuki. In recent weeks we have seen a non-stop flow of ominous statements like the one above. The author is 100% factual and it should be a cause for deep concern. Historically, such surges in the money supply were often met with significant inflation. While the sharp increase in the money supply provides context to the depth of our economic problems, our inflation warning bells are not ringing, at least not yet. Here is why.


Inflation, or aggregate price increases, results from economic activity, along with the amount of money and its velocity. A famous economic formula called the Monetary Exchange Equation uses those factors to create a mathematical identity that precisely determines the inflation rate. We co-authored an article with Brett Freeze entitled Stoking The Embers of Inflation. The article went into great detail about the monetary exchange equation. We summarize a few key points here: Per the inflation identity, the rate of inflation or deflation (%P) is equal to the rate of money growth (%M), plus the change in velocity (%V), less the rate of output growth (%Q).

• %M – As noted earlier, the change in the monetary base is a direct function of the Fed’s monetary policy actions. To increase or decrease the monetary base, the Fed buys and sells securities, typically U.S. Treasuries and more recently Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). • %V – Velocity is nominal GDP divided by the monetary base (Q/M). Velocity measures people’s willingness to hold cash or how often cash turns over. Lower velocity means that people are hoarding cash, which usually happens during periods of economic weakness, credit stress, and fear for banking institutions’ going-concern.

So if we exclude GDP, inflation is dependent on money supply and velocity changes. Money supply data is published weekly and easily forecastable with the Fed’s QE schedule. Velocity, on the other hand, is posted once a quarter and much more challenging to forecast. As such, let’s dive into velocity. Velocity is a measure of how fast cash circulates in an economy. We consider two extreme examples of money printing and monetary velocity to appreciate the interaction of money supply and velocity. • The Fed prints $10 trillion and buries it in a hole. • The Fed prints $10 trillion, sends each American a $30,000 check, and tells them they have five days to spend it or lose it The two examples have polar opposite effects on prices, despite the same massive increase in the money supply.

In example 1, the Fed does not affect inflation. The $10 trillion is not fungible as long as it stays buried. In example 2, hyperinflation would result as the new money rapidly circulates through the economy and dwarfs the economic system’s production capacity. Essentially, the demand for goods and services outstrips the supply. The amount of money greatly matters, but equally important is how it moves through the economy. The graph below compares the money supply chart above with the velocity of money and inflation.

Read more …

 

 

We try to run the Automatic Earth on donations. Since ad revenue has collapsed, you are now not just a reader, but an integral part of the process that builds this site. Thank you for your support.

 

 

 

 

Medhurst – America Just Replaced One Monster With Another
https://twitter.com/i/status/1325622342370922496

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in 2021. Click at the top of the sidebars to donate with Paypal and Patreon.

 

Jul 302019
 
 July 30, 2019  Posted by at 9:28 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  11 Responses »


Odilon Redon The winged man (The fallen angel) 1880

 

Pound Worth Just 85 Euro Cents At UK Airports (Ind.)
Boris Johnson Refuses To Meet EU Leaders Unless They Scrap Backstop (G.)
EU Rejects Dominic Raab’s ‘Easier’ No-Deal Brexit Claim (G.)
Boris Johnson’s New Brexit Chief Wants To Scrap Workers’ Rights (Ind.)
Things to Come (Kunstler)
Fake Cash, Fake Accounting: China Regulators Halt 46 IPOs, Bond Offerings (WS)
US Firms See Little Clarity On Huawei As US-China Talks Resume (R.)
Capital One: Information Of Over 100 Million People In US, Canada Hacked (R.)
The World is Not Enough (Statista)
Lost Cities and Climate Change (SciAm)

 

 

In currency markets, sterling is still worth 10% more than the euro, not 15% less. Three years ago it was worth 25% more. Scary to think what a no-deal Brexit could do. Well, unless you’re a short seller.

Pound Worth Just 85 Euro Cents At UK Airports (Ind.)

The pound has sunk well below €1 at Britain’s biggest airports – while the dollar is at parity. At the ICE desk at Heathrow airport on Tuesday morning, The Independent was quoted £117 for buying €100 – making each pound worth just 85 euro cents. At Gatwick airport on Monday night, the rate was £1 = €0.90. With commission added to a €100 transaction, the cost in sterling was £116. The interbank rate at 7am sank below £1 = €1.09, as the downward pressure on the pound continued. The currency market has marked down sterling as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit appears increasingly likely. At the peak of the holiday season, prices for British travellers will be at a two-year high.


The best rates for the euro found by The Independent were for “click and collect” transactions at London bureaux de change: €1.08 at branches of Thomas Exchange Global or ICE at Waterloo station. The interbank rate for dollars was £1 = $1.21, but Moneycorp at Gatwick airport was quoting parity: £1 = $1. Anyone changing £1,000 into the US currency and immediately back to sterling would lose over one-third of their money, receiving just £648.

Read more …

I don’t see how they could scrap the backstop, Brussels must stand up for its member state, Ireland. No choice. For Brussels, Ireland is a full-fledged nation. For London, it still doesn’t appear to be.

Boris Johnson Refuses To Meet EU Leaders Unless They Scrap Backstop (G.)

Boris Johnson is refusing to sit down for talks with EU leaders until they agree to ditch the Irish backstop from the Brexit withdrawal agreement, despite invitations to meetings from the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron. His official spokeswoman said the prime minister had made clear that he wanted to strike a deal, but that there was no point in holding face-to-face talks unless the EU agreed to reopen the agreement. But on a visit to the Trident nuclear base at Faslane in Scotland on Monday, Johnson painted a more optimistic picture of the prospects for talks, telling reporters there was “ample scope” to achieve a new deal.

He said: “We are not aiming for a no-deal Brexit at all. What we want is to get a deal and I’ve had some interesting conversations with our European partners. I’ve talked to [the European commission president] Jean-Claude [Juncker] and Angela Merkel and we’re reaching out today to [the Irish prime minister] Leo Varadkar. The feeling is, yes there’s no change in their position, but it’s very, very positive.” But he added: “They all know where we are: we can’t accept the backstop, it was thrown out three times, the withdrawal agreement as it stands is dead and everybody gets that. But there is ample scope to do a new deal and a better deal.”

While Johnson has spoken to Merkel and Macron, there are no plans to accept their invitations to visit without a change in their position on the backstop. Irish officials are understood to view the delay in contacting Varadkar as indicative of an unwillingness to enter serious talks. Varadkar is adamant that the backstop must stay to prevent a return to a hard border on the island of Ireland and preserve the integrity of the single market.

Read more …

Blame Games ‘R’ Us.

EU Rejects Dominic Raab’s ‘Easier’ No-Deal Brexit Claim (G.)

European Union officials have rejected Dominic Raab’s claim that negotiating a free-trade deal would be “much easier” after a no-deal Brexit. While the foreign secretary contends that leaving the EU without an agreement would ease the way to solving the disputed Irish border question, European sources fear a no-deal Brexit would trigger an acrimonious blame game. “It would mean the complete breakdown of political relations and I don’t think there would be much trust on the EU side with the Tories, or with the prime minister,” a senior diplomat said. “Eventually we would get around it because we are pragmatic, but this would be really, really bad, because of all the rhetoric around blaming.”


A second diplomat, speaking before Raab’s intervention, argued that all contact would cease after a no-deal Brexit. “Our phones will not be connected at that time … I don’t think they will be connected to someone who has reneged on their obligations,” they said. European officials agree that a precondition of talks would be a British pledge to honour the three core parts of the withdrawal agreement – citizens’ rights, the Irish border and the financial settlement. At the weekend, the EU budget commissioner, Günther Oettinger, told Der Tagesspiegel the UK’s credit rating would be hit if Boris Johnson carried out his threat not to honour payments promised to the EU. Tanja Fajon, the Social Democrat member of the European parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said: “To negotiate a free trade agreement usually takes years and I believe the UK doesn’t have that time after a no-deal Brexit.”

Read more …

The UK has been instrumental in defining EU law for 40 years. Now they want to cherry-pick? That would put any future trade deals at risk. Unfair competition.

Boris Johnson’s New Brexit Chief Wants To Scrap Workers’ Rights (Ind.)

Boris Johnson’s new Brexit chief wants to scrap Theresa May’s commitment to protect British workers’ rights, and has suggested Brexit is an opportunity to escape the EU’s “heavy labour market regulation”, The Independent can reveal. Just two months ago David Frost said he was opposed to the approach advocated “by the leaders of both major political parties”, and argued that EU rights should not automatically be written into law after Brexit. Mr Frost, former chief executive of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, was appointed last week by Mr Johnson to replace Olly Robbins as Downing Street’s EU chief, a role that will see him leading any future talks with Brussels.

“Business organisations have often in the past criticised the EU’s drift towards heavy labour market regulation,” Mr Frost said in May 2019 in an article reproduced on the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry website. “So I will take some persuading it will be a good outcome if the EU is able to set new UK labour market rules without any UK say – as currently seems to be envisaged by the leaders of both major political parties.” Theresa May committed the government to maintaining the current level of European Union workers rights, and also went even further, legislating for parliament to automatically be given votes on staying aligned with the bloc’s rules when future legislation emerges.

The “dynamic alignment” plans were unveiled by the government in a failed bid to get Labour MPs to back the withdrawal agreement. Additionally, during the transition period included in the withdrawal agreement, the UK would have to accept rights with no say at all, as rejected by Mr Frost. Brussels has also suggested the UK would have to stay aligned with future EU workers’ rights, as well as environmental and social legislation, past the end of the transition period – if it wants a trade agreement. Chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said the bloc would seek non-regression clauses to ensure Britain does not backslide on rules and try to undercut its neighbours.

Read more …

“Now, there is just suspicion that we’ve reached the limits of borrowing. Soon it will be a fact and that fact will upend everything we’ve been doing. ”

Things to Come (Kunstler)

The economic contraction ahead will put this borderline psychotic country through some interesting ch-ch-ch-changes. Mr. Trump now fully owns the Potemkin status quo of record stock markets poised against a withering rot of human capital at the core of an industrial society in sunset mode. Leadership at every corner of American life — politics, business, media — expects an ever-higher tech magical updraft of fortune from an increasingly holographic economy of mere fugitive appearances in which everybody can get more of something for nothing. The disappointment over how all this works out will be epic.

Globalism is wobbling badly. It was never what it was cracked up to be: a permanent new plateau of exquisitely-tuned international economic cooperation engineered to perfection. It was just a set of provisional relations based on transient advantage. As it turned out, every move that advantaged US-based corporations blew back ferociously on the American public and the long-term integrity of the social order. Sinister as it seems, the process was simply emergent: a self-organizing evolution of forces previously set in motion. And, like a lot of things in history, it seemed like a good idea at the time.

“Off-shoring” US industry jacked up corporate profits while it decimated working class livelihoods. In return, that large demographic got “bargain shopping” at Walmart, a life of ever-upward revolving debt, and dead downtowns. The country got gigantic trade deficits and government debt loads. In effect, globalism compelled America to borrow as much as possible from the future to keep running things the way they were set up to run. Now, there is just suspicion that we’ve reached the limits of borrowing. Soon it will be a fact and that fact will upend everything we’ve been doing.

Read more …

What is real in China?

Fake Cash, Fake Accounting: China Regulators Halt 46 IPOs, Bond Offerings (WS)

On Monday, Jinhe Biotechnology and Liande Automatic Equipment disclosed in filings that they had been ordered by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to suspend their plans to sell bonds. On Sunday night, four companies — Hunan Baili Engineering Sci&Tech, Jiaao Enprotech Stock, MLS Co., and Woer Heat-Shrinkable Material Co. – disclosed in filings that they had been ordered by the CSRC to suspend their IPOs in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Regulators also stopped four IPOs on Shanghai’s Star Market, which itself debuted just last week with great fanfare. The 25 stocks listed on it gained 140% on the very first day, followed by steep declines the second day.


[..] On Sunday, two companies disclosed that their bond offerings were stopped by regulators, according to Yicai. On Friday, seven companies disclosed that their bond offerings have been halted. In total, regulators suspended 46 IPOs and bond offerings, based on filings made at the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, including Shanghai’s Star Market, as of Monday, according to the South China Morning Post. The reason: these companies had chosen Ruihua Certified Public Accountants as their auditors. Ruihua, the second largest audit firm in China, has been embroiled in scandals involving large amounts of fake data, including fake cash, on its clients’ books. The fakeness of this cash became obvious when these companies defaulted on debt that they could have easily serviced with the cash they claimed to have on their books but didn’t. And Ruihua had just signed off on those fake books.

Read more …

“..the department has yet to respond to any of a total of around 50 license requests from about 35 companies..”

US Firms See Little Clarity On Huawei As US-China Talks Resume (R.)

A month after President Donald Trump said he would allow U.S. companies to resume selling to blacklisted Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei HWT.UL, his administration has done little to clarify what sales will be permitted. The lack of clarity on what U.S. firms can supply to the world’s top producer of telecommunications equipment as long as it’s on a so-called “entity list” is likely to cast a shadow over this week’s U.S.-China trade negotiations in Shanghai. Trump had pledged to allow the sales as a goodwill gesture to President Xi Jinping when the two met last month and agreed to restart talks to try to resolve their year-long trade war.


China, for its part, agreed to restart large-scale agricultural purchases. U.S. chipmakers cheered Trump’s announcement, which administration officials clarified afterwards meant the government would issue export licenses in cases where there is no national security risk and where the items are “non-sensitive” and readily replaced by rivals. But the department has yet to respond to any of a total of around 50 license requests from about 35 companies, sowing uncertainty in the industry and in Beijing. “At this stage, there is mass confusion,” said William Reinsch, a former Commerce official, adding that the plan for case-by-case decisions “maximizes the uncertainty.”

Read more …

No information is safe.

Capital One: Information Of Over 100 Million People In US, Canada Hacked (R.)

Capital One Financial Corp said on Monday that personal information including names and addresses of about 100 million individuals in the United States and 6 million people in Canada were obtained by a hacker who has been arrested. The suspect, a 33-year-old former Seattle technology company software engineer identified as Paige Thompson, made her initial appearance in U.S. District Court in Seattle on Monday, the U.S. Attorney’s office said. According to a complaint filed in the District Court for the Western District of Washington at Seattle, Thompson posted information from her hack, which occurred between March 12 and July 17, on coding platform GitHub. Another user saw the post and notified Capital One of the breach.


Law enforcement officials were able to track Thompson down as the page she posted on contained her full name as part of its digital address, the complaint said. Capital One said it identified the hack on July 19. A representative for the U.S. Attorney’s office said it was not immediately clear what the suspect’s motive was. The incident is expected to cost between $100 million and $150 million in 2019, mainly because of customer notifications, credit monitoring and legal support, Capital One said. The hacker did not gain access to credit card account numbers, but about 140,000 Social Security numbers and 80,000 linked bank account numbers were compromised, Capital One said. Other personal information accessed included phone numbers and credit scores.

Read more …

Are we immune to this yet?

The World is Not Enough (Statista)

Earth Overshoot Day came on July 29 this year. This is the second time the day, which marks the time at which humanity has used up its allotment of natural planetary resources for the year, occurred in the month. It had occurred in August between 2010 and 2017. The day, whose existence is highlighted by the NGO Global Footprint Network, means that all humans on Earth for this year have already used up more natural resources than mother nature can reproduce annually. Emissions, but also of resources like wood or fish and the use of land for crops, are among the things counted in when calculating Earth Overshoot Day.


Industrialized nations have the biggest share in pushing its date forward, as seen in the organization’s country profiles. The U.S. is the biggest offender. If all nations lived like U.S. residents, the resources of five Earths would be needed each year in order for the natural environment to regenerate. The U.S. overshoot day is therefore on March 15. Australia, which had been ahead of the U.S. for some years, now had its overshoot day on March 31, with 4.1 “Earths” used annually. India was among the countries whose style of living would use up less than a whole Earth each year if practiced globally, which also has to do with poverty still being widespread in the country.

Read more …

“The scariest thing about climate change is what it will make us do to each other.”

Lost Cities and Climate Change (SciAm)

Not far from my grandmother’s house is a ghost city. At Angel Mounds on the Ohio river about eight miles west of Evansville, there are a few visible earthworks and a reconstructed wattle-and-daub barrier. There is almost nothing left of the people who build these mounds; in a final insulting erasure, the site is now named after the white settler family who most recently farmed the land. There are traces of other dead villages along the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, mounds scattered from present-day Indiana to Arkansas and Alabama. In southern Illinois, a few miles from the Missouri border, hidden among empty corn and soy fields, is the center of that dead civilization’s gravity: the lost city of Cahokia.

Cahokia was larger than London, centrally planned, the Manhattan of its day. Most people there would have come from somewhere else. There were defensive foundations, playing fields, and a magnificent temple. There would have been sacred ceremonies and salacious gossip. It must have been a very exciting place to live. And then, relatively abruptly, it ceased to exist. We know of the city only because of the physical traces left behind. Few stories of Cahokia have survived; it disappeared from oral tradition, as if whatever happened to it is best forgotten. The archaeological record shows traces of the desperation and bloodshed that almost always accompany great upheavals: skeletons with bound hands, pits full of strangled young women.

The North American Drought Atlas, a historical record of climate conditions pieced together from the rings of old trees, provides a hint of what might have happened. The tenth century CE, when the Cahokia civilization would have developed, marked a distinct shift in the regional climate from persistent drought to rainier conditions more suitable for agriculture, centralization, and civilization. But the good times were not to last. In the middle of the fourteenth century, the climate swung back toward drought. This shift was likely associated with shifting temperature patterns in the ocean that affected the jet stream, pulling cool air down from the Arctic and displacing rainfall patterns.

These changes are attributable to some combination of natural internal climate variability and externally forced changes from solar activity and increased volcanic eruptions. Their effects were profound. In Europe around the same time, a confluence of natural factors perhaps related and perhaps separate from the forces drying out the Mississippi Valley caused it to rain heavily in the summer of 1314. The rains continued into the winter, and then into the next year, and then the next. Crops rotted in the fields, and the entire continent went hungry. Contemporaneous historical records complain of rain and famine, villages forced to eat dogs and cats, the dead, and even each other.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 152019
 


Pablo Picasso Three women at the edge of the beach 1924

 

NBC Issues Latest Reminder That Mueller Report Might Disappoint (ZH)
Trump Will Sign Spending Bill, Declare Emergency Over Border – McConnell (MW)
Russians Told To ‘Prepare For The Worst’ As US Proposes New Sanctions (Ind.)
Theresa May Suffers Embarrassing Defeat As Tories Rebel Over No-Deal (Ind.)
Dutch PM On Brexit: UK Is A Waning Country Too Small To Stand Alone (G.)
German Economy Narrowly Avoids Recession As Weaker Exports Take Toll (G.)
BBC Producer’s Syria Bombshell: Douma “Gas Attack” Footage “Was Staged” (ZH)
As Amazon Drops New York City Project, Progressives Claim A Major Coup (R.)
White Supremacy Is a Key Driver of the Venezuela Coup (Palast)
How The US Has Hidden Its Empire (Immerwahr)
School Climate Strikes: ‘The Beginning Of Great Change’ (G.)
100s Of Endangered Animals At Risk Of Extinction Due To Wildlife Trade (Ind.)

 

 

They’re inventing a narrative as we speak that Mueller may have proof of collusion, but not enough for a criminal case, and therefore that proof may remain hidden. Which would give NBC plenty material for more empty allegations right up until the 2020 elections. In the media, it’s no longer about what you can prove, it’s about what wiggle room you have to smear and accuse. They’ll never give up: the Senate committee comes up nothing, and they prepare their audience for the Mueller probe doing the same, but somehow that means nothing. No matter what happens, the verdict is already there.

NBC Issues Latest Reminder That Mueller Report Might Disappoint (ZH)

“Millions of Americans may be sorely disappointed” by the Mueller report – or lack thereof, according to NBC News. Yes, after nearly three years of DOJ investigation, FBI spying, and what appears to have been a setup involving a mysterious Maltese professor who bragged about his ties to the Clinton Foundation – it looks like that “the public may never learn the full scope of what Mueller and his team has found.” The NBC report comes days after a bipartisan Senate investigation found no collusion between Trumpworld and Russia, and the same day as former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe admitted that he rushed to open the Russia probe out of fear of being fired.

Unless Mueller files a detailed indictment charging members of the Trump campaign with conspiring with Russia, the public may never learn the full scope of what Mueller and his team has found — including potentially scandalous behavior that doesn’t amount to a provable crime . The reason: The special counsel operates under rules that severely constrain how much information can be made public. -NBC News And while the Attorney General will be required to notify Congress of Mueller’s findings, those reports must amount to “brief notifications, with an outline of the actions and the reasons for them.” “Expectations that we will see a comprehensive report from the special counsel are high. But the written regulations that govern the special counsel’s reporting requirements should arguably dampen those expectations,” said former federal prosecutor Chuck Rosenberg.

[..] When asked about making the Mueller report public, newly minted Attorney General, William Barr, has said “My goal will be to provide as much transparency as I can consistent with the law,” adding “I can assure you that, where judgments are to be made, I will make those judgments based solely on the law and I will not let personal, political or other improper interests influence my decision.” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) said in January that her vote on Barr’s nomination is contingent upon whether he will release the report publicly. “My vote really depends on whether I believe that that report will come out as written,” said Feinstein. “I served for a long time on the Intelligence Committee, and I know redaction can be excessive.”

Read more …

TEXT

Trump Will Sign Spending Bill, Declare Emergency Over Border – McConnell (MW)

President Donald Trump will sign a spending bill to keep the government open and at the same time declare a national emergency at the border, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday. McConnell spoke from the Senate floor after Trump said on Twitter he was reviewing the bill with his team at the White House. Trump has discussed using an emergency declaration to build a proposed wall along the U.S. border with Mexico, a move that’s certain to provoke a brawl with Congress and perhaps in the courts.

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement that Trump would sign the bill and “take other executive action — including a national emergency — to ensure we stop the national security and humanitarian crisis at the border.” “The president is once again delivering on his promise to build the wall, protect the border, and secure our great country,” Sanders said. The measure passed the Senate on Thursday afternoon by an 83-16 vote, and the House approved it Thursday night with a 300-128 tally. Republicans including Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida voted against it.

Read more …

As RT states: “Even the most cursory observer will notice the bill treats alleged Russian meddling abroad and “illicit and corrupt activities” of the Russian president as established, proven facts (they are not).”

Russians Told To ‘Prepare For The Worst’ As US Proposes New Sanctions (Ind.)

Moscow has reacted to a proposed new package of United States sanctions with of mix of anger and resignation. As an influential former minister urged Russians to prepare for the worst, the Kremlin accused the US of “racketeering”. “We see clear symptoms of emotional Russophobia,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists. “But behind the emotions … is an entirely pragmatic, assertive trade calculation, and … nothing less than an attempt to engage in dishonest competition.” The new round of sanctions, proposed in the Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act on Wednesday evening, would target Russia’s security service, sovereign debt, and its financial and energy sectors.

The sanctions package is awaiting congressional approval. m According to the bill’s authors, the measures have been proposed in response to two developments: Russian “interference in democratic processes abroad” and its “aggression against Ukraine”, including the seizing of Ukrainian warships in the Kerch strait in November. On Thursday, the proposed sanctions were met with a predictably angry response by Russian state television and more media-hungry parliamentarians. Perhaps the most memorable response was filed by Frants Klintsevich, the prominent, if excitable, member of the Defence and Security Committee of Russia’s upper house. He described the new sanctions as a “dangerous habit” akin to “smoking a pipe before breakfast, poisoning all those around”.

Read more …

In the future, this headline will sow much confusion about the date it applies to. May suffers embarrassing defeats almost every day.

Theresa May Suffers Embarrassing Defeat As Tories Rebel Over No-Deal (Ind.)

Theresa May’s Brexit plans have been dealt a body blow following a “fiasco” in the House of Commons, which saw dozens of Tories inflict an embarrassing defeat on their leader. Eurosceptic Conservatives refused to back a motion reiterating support for the prime minister’s negotiating strategy, deeply suspicious that she might try and use it to rule out a no-deal Brexit. The loss brutally exposes how trust between Ms May and her backbenchers has hit rock bottom, with many still furious over comments made by her chief negotiator in a Brussels bar this week which also appeared to exclude a no-deal scenario. But the defeat has also laid bare the extreme fragility of parliamentary support for her approach, with her ministers having claimed only last week that she had secured a “strong mandate” from the Commons.

On another dramatic night in parliament, Ms May was nowhere to be seen as the result was read out to cheers from the Labour benches. The government motion was defeated by 258 votes to 303. One leading Tory described the night as a “fiasco”, Jeremy Corbyn said the country was heading for a “catastrophe”, and a senior source in Brussels said: “There goes the strong mandate.” The Brexit fault line also cut through Mr Corbyn’s party on Thursday, with a significant number of Labour MPs apparently defying their leader’s will in a separate vote amid suspicions that some are close to breaking away. But the spotlight was firmly on the prime minister’s ailing administration as it contorted in an attempt to avoid defeat on what did not have to be a difficult night for Ms May.

Read more …

Rutte is an all-out neo-liberal globalist. The kind that control Brussels today. But will that still be the case after the May EU elections?

Dutch PM On Brexit: UK Is A Waning Country Too Small To Stand Alone (G.)

Britain is a “waning country” and too small to stand alone on the world stage, the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, has claimed in a withering assessment of the UK’s exit from the EU. Rutte, who has emerged as a key player in the talks over the past two years, also warned in an interview that the UK looked to be sliding off the “precipice” towards a “devastating” no-deal Brexit. “Who will be left weakened by Brexit is the United Kingdom,” he said. “It is already weakening, it is a waning country compared to two or three years ago. It is going to become an economy of middling size in the Atlantic Ocean. It is neither the US nor the EU. It is too small to appear on the world stage on its own.”

Rutte, who also claimed the Dutch would replace the UK in the bloc as the pre-eminent voice for free trade, has been regularly consulted by Theresa May on progress in the Brexit negotiations. The Netherlands is one of the EU member states that will be most affected by the barriers to trade that will emerge after the UK leaves the bloc, although it has been the beneficiary of some relocations by big businesses. Figures released last week by the Dutch investment agency revealed 42 companies had relocated to the Netherlands in 2018, citing Brexit as a reason, resulting in the movement of 1,923 jobs. Asked whether a Brexit deal was likely, Rutte said in an interview with European media outlets, including the Spanish newspaper El País: “My impression is that the ball is heading towards the precipice and everyone screams to stop, but nobody does anything to stop it, at least, from the British side.”

Read more …

When is Berlin going to start pumping money in?

German Economy Narrowly Avoids Recession As Weaker Exports Take Toll (G.)

Germany narrowly avoided falling into recession in the second half of last year as weaker exports dragged Europe’s largest economy to stalling point during the final three months of 2018. The German economy recorded zero growth in the fourth quarter, managing to just avoid a technical recession after reporting a contraction of 0.2% in the third quarter amid a slump in industrial output. Several economists had previously warned that Germany was on the brink of recession because of consecutive monthly declines in factory output, with the country suffering from weaker levels of global demand and disruption at factories.

Tensions between the US and China have acted as a handbrake on global goods trade, while growth is slowing in the Chinese economy after years of rapid expansion. Sales of cars in China dropped last year for the first time in almost 30 years, affecting manufacturers across Europe. New vehicle emissions tests introduced after the VW emissions scandal have also caused disruption to factories across Europe, including in Britain. Manufacturing accounts for about a fifth of the Germany economy, about double the size of Britain’s industrial base. Overall growth for 2018 in Germany was 1.5%, marginally above the 1.4% expansion recorded in Britain.

Read more …

How things we’ve all know for years can still be bombshells.

BBC Producer’s Syria Bombshell: Douma “Gas Attack” Footage “Was Staged” (ZH)

Now approaching nearly a year after the April 7, 2018 alleged chemical attack in Douma, Syria — which the White House used as a pretext to bomb Syrian government facilities and bases throughout Damascus — a BBC reporter who investigated the incident on the ground has issued public statements saying the “Assad sarin attack” on Douma was indeed “staged”. Riam Dalati is a well-known BBC Syria producer who has long reported from the region. He shocked his nearly 20,000 twitter followers on Wednesday, which includes other mainstream journalists from major outlets, by stating that after a “six month investigation” he has concluded, “I can prove without a doubt that the Douma Hospital scene was staged.”

The “hospital scene” is a reference to part of the horrid footage played over and over again on international networks showing children in a Douma hospital being hosed off and treated by doctors and White Helmets personnel as victims of the alleged chemical attack. The BBC’s Dalati stated on Wednesday: “After almost 6 months of investigations, I can prove without a doubt that the Douma Hospital scene was staged. No fatalities occurred in the hospital.” He noted he had interviewed a number of White Helmets and opposition activists while reaching that conclusion.

He continued in a follow-up tweet: “Russia and at least one NATO country knew about what happened in the hospital. Documents were sent. However, no one knew what really happened at the flats apart from activists manipulating the scene there. This is why Russia focused solely on discrediting the hospital scene.” Dalati’s mention of activists at the flats “manipulating the scene there” is a reference to White Helmets and rebel activist produced footage purporting to show the deadly aftermath of a chemical attack inside a second scene — a bombed out apartment showing dozens of dead bodies.

Read more …

Yes, Amazon is the company that paid $0 in income taxes. And then people say progressives stand in the way of progress. Some progress.

As Amazon Drops New York City Project, Progressives Claim A Major Coup (R.)

U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wasted no time on Thursday in calling Amazon’s decision to scrap plans to build a major New York outpost with nearly $3 billion in city and state incentives a big victory for progressive politicians. The democratic socialist congresswoman has become the face of the Democratic Party’s ascendant left wing, thanks in part to her upset victory last year in a district near the proposed Amazon.com Inc development. “Anything is possible: today was the day a group of dedicated, everyday New Yorkers & their neighbors defeated Amazon’s corporate greed, its worker exploitation, and the power of the richest man in the world,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote on Twitter.

Amazon blamed local opposition for its abrupt reversal, which some saw as the latest evidence of the progressive movement’s surging influence ahead of the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination next year. “They have shown sufficient power to back off the largest corporation in the world,” Douglas Muzzio, a professor at Baruch College in New York and an expert on city politics and public opinion. “They killed Amazon, the biggest beast around.”

Read more …

“Guaidó’s supporters, like Carmona’s, know they can’t win an election given the overwhelming fact of the newly empowered Mestizo majority. So Guaidó has skipped the idea of an election altogether..”

White Supremacy Is a Key Driver of the Venezuela Coup (Palast)

Four centuries of white supremacy in Venezuela by those who identify their ancestors as European came to an end with the 1998 election of Hugo Chavez, who won with the overwhelming support of the Mestizo majority. This turn away from white supremacy continues under Maduro, Chavez’s chosen successor. In my interviews with Chavez for BBC beginning in 2002, he talked with humor about the fury of a white ruling class finding itself displaced by a man who embraced his own Indigenous and African heritage. In Venezuela, as in the USA, poverty and race are locked together. Why did so many Mestizo, poor Venezuelans love Chavez? As even the CIA’s surprisingly honest Fact Book states:

“Social investment in Venezuela during the Chavez administration reduced poverty from nearly 50% in 1999 to about 27% in 2011, increased school enrollment, substantially decreased infant and child mortality, and improved access to potable water and sanitation through social investment.” But, just as Maduro took office, the price of oil began its collapse, and the vast social programs that oil had paid for were now supported by borrowing money and printing it, causing wild inflation. The economic slide is now made impossibly worse by what the UN rapporteur for Venezuela compared to “medieval sieges.” The Trump administration cut off Venezuela from the oil sale proceeds from its biggest customer, the US.

Everyone has been hurt economically, but the privileged class’s bank accounts have become nearly worthless. So, knowing that the Mestizo majority would not elect their Great White Hope Guaidó, they simply took to the streets — often armed. (And yes, both sides are armed.) I’ve seen this movie before. When I look at today’s news reports of massive demonstrations against the so-called “dictatorship” of Venezuela’s left government, it looks awfully like 2002, when I was first in Caracas reporting for BBC Television. [..] In 2002, George W. Bush’s State Department cheer-led the coup. The plotters kidnapped Chavez and held him hostage. The coup was led by an oil industry leader and head of the Chamber of Commerce, Pedro Carmona, who had seized the nation’s White House, and, like Guaidó today, declared himself president.

Carmona told me proudly about the fancy inaugural ball held by the nation’s elite and attended by Bush’s ambassador. But the Bush/Carmona coup collapsed when a million mostly Mestizo, Indigenous and Black Venezuelans flooded the capital and forced the plotters to return their hero, the supposedly unpopular Chavez, to Miraflores, the presidential palace. “Presidente” Carmona fled. Today, Guaidó’s supporters, like Carmona’s, know they can’t win an election given the overwhelming fact of the newly empowered Mestizo majority. So Guaidó has skipped the idea of an election altogether, simply replacing running for office with the “recognition” from Trump and allies which Guaidó can’t get from Venezuelans.

Read more …

Wonderful summary of upcoming book.

How The US Has Hidden Its Empire (Immerwahr)

There aren’t many historical episodes more firmly lodged in the United States’s national memory than the attack on Pearl Harbor. It is one of only a few events that many people in the country can put a date to: 7 December 1941, the “date which will live in infamy,” as Franklin D Roosevelt put it. Hundreds of books have been written about it – the Library of Congress holds more than 350. And Hollywood has made movies. But what those films don’t show is what happened next. Nine hours after Japan attacked the territory of Hawaii, another set of Japanese planes came into view over another US territory, the Philippines. As at Pearl Harbor, they dropped their bombs, hitting several air bases, to devastating effect.

The attack on Pearl Harbor was just that – an attack. Japan’s bombers struck, retreated and never returned. Not so in the Philippines. There, the initial air raids were followed by more raids, then by invasion and conquest. Sixteen million Filipinos – US nationals who saluted the stars and stripes and looked to FDR as their commander in chief – fell under a foreign power. Contrary to popular memory, the event familiarly known as “Pearl Harbor” was in fact an all-out lightning strike on US and British holdings throughout the Pacific. On a single day, the Japanese attacked the US territories of Hawaii, the Philippines, Guam, Midway Island and Wake Island. They also attacked the British colonies of Malaya, Singapore and Hong Kong, and they invaded Thailand.

At first, “Pearl Harbor” was not the way most people referred to the bombings. “Japs bomb Manila, Hawaii” was the headline in one New Mexico paper; “Japanese Planes Bomb Honolulu, Island of Guam” in another in South Carolina. Sumner Welles, FDR’s undersecretary of state, described the event as “an attack upon Hawaii and upon the Philippines”. Eleanor Roosevelt used a similar formulation in her radio address on the night of 7 December, when she spoke of Japan “bombing our citizens in Hawaii and the Philippines”. That was how the first draft of FDR’s speech went, too: it presented the event as a “bombing in Hawaii and the Philippines”. Yet Roosevelt toyed with that draft all day, adding things in pencil, crossing other bits out.

At some point he deleted the prominent references to the Philippines. Why did Roosevelt demote the Philippines? We don’t know, but it’s not hard to guess. Roosevelt was trying to tell a clear story: Japan had attacked the US. But he faced a problem. Were Japan’s targets considered “the United States”? Legally, they were indisputably US territory. But would the public see them that way? What if Roosevelt’s audience didn’t care that Japan had attacked the Philippines or Guam? Polls taken slightly before the attack show that few in the continental US supported a military defense of those remote territories.


The Greater United States as it was in 1941

Read more …

Get them when they’re young. They dragged this girl over to Davos, letting her think that means something. Well, it did, it meant she became a puppet. Davos, Brussels; kids, you’re being used. You’re now part of a propaganda campaign that says ‘leaders’ actually give a damn. But they just want your future vote.

School Climate Strikes: ‘The Beginning Of Great Change’ (G.)

Greta Thunberg is hopeful the student climate strike on Friday can bring about positive change, as young people in more and more countries join the protest movement she started last summer as a lone campaigner outside the Swedish parliament. The 16-year-old welcomed the huge mobilisation planned in the UK, which follows demonstrations by tens of thousands of school and university students in Australia, Belgium, Germany, the United States, Japan and more than a dozen other countries. “I think it’s great that England is joining the school strike in a major way this week. There has been a number of real heroes on school strike, for instance in Scotland and Ireland, for some time now. Such as Holly Gillibrand and the ones in Cork with the epic sign saying ‘the emperor is naked’,” she told the Guardian.

With an even bigger global mobilisation planned for 15 March, she feels the momentum is now building. “I think enough people have realised just how absurd the situation is. We are in the middle of the biggest crisis in human history and basically nothing is being done to prevent it. I think what we are seeing is the beginning of great changes and that is very hopeful,” she wrote. Thunberg has risen rapidly in prominence and influence. In December, she spoke at the United Nations climate conference, berating world leaders for behaving like irresponsible children. Last month, she had similarly harsh words for the global business elite at Davos. She said: “Some people, some companies, some decision-makers in particular, have known exactly what priceless values they have been sacrificing to continue making unimaginable amounts of money. And I think many of you here today belong to that group of people.”

The movement she started has morphed and grown around the world , and, at times, linked up with older groups, including Extinction Rebellion, 350.org and Greenpeace. Next week she will take the train – having decided not to fly due to the high carbon emissions of aviation – to speak at an event alongside Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, in Brussels, and then on to Paris to join the school strikes now expanding in France. Veteran climate campaigners are astonished by what has been achieved in such a short time. “The movement that Greta launched is one of the most hopeful things in my 30 years of working on the climate question. It throws the generational challenge of global warming into its sharpest relief, and challenges adults to prove they are, actually, adults. So many thanks to all the young people who are stepping up,” said Bill McKibben, the founder of 350.org.

Read more …

Eh, school strikers?

100s Of Endangered Animals At Risk Of Extinction Due To Wildlife Trade (Ind.)

Hundreds of animal species are at risk of extinction because wildlife trade restrictions are taking too long to come into effect, a major new study warns. Over a quarter of animals on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list – the world’s most critically endangered – are not protected by Cites (the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora). Cites is regarded as the primary international framework for preventing species extinction due to international wildlife trade. It came into force in 1975 in order to coordinate and regulate trade in wildlife products, and can put into effect bans on sales of certain species or their body parts.

The research also revealed the long wait species have to gain recognition by Cites. Even among IUCN’s red-list species, 62 per cent of those protected by Cites had waited as long as 19 years for recognition or are still waiting to be listed up to 24 years after being first considered. “It’s absolutely critical that policymakers allow science to inform a speedy protection process,” said Eyal Frank, co-author of the study and an assistant professor at the University of Chicago. He said: “New trends in wildlife trade can develop quickly, with some species going from common to near extinction in just a few years.

Read more …

Dec 152018
 
 December 15, 2018  Posted by at 11:09 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  4 Responses »


Vincent van Gogh Road menders at Saint-Remy 1889

 

US Banks See Biggest Unrealized Losses On Securities Since Q1 2009 (WS)
European Banks’ €300 Billion Race To The Bottom (BBG)
Global Debt Hits All-Time High Of $184,000,000,000,000 (RT)
Act V: Yellow Vests Prepare For Massive ‘Macron Resign’ Protest (RT)
Senior Tories Tell May To Work With Corbyn To Save Her Brexit Deal (Ind.)
Theresa May’s Brexit Strategy Left Brutally Exposed By Brussels Failure (G.)
Affordable Care Act Is Ruled Unconstitutional By A Federal Judge (CNBC)
Clinton Foundation Oversight Panel Hears Explosive Testimony (RT)
The War Against Globalism (Giraldi)
Yanis Varoufakis’s Internationalist Odyssey (Nation)

 

 

EU banks are disasters. US banks are too.

US Banks See Biggest Unrealized Losses On Securities Since Q1 2009 (WS)

The FDIC just released the aggregated third-quarter performance metrics of the 5,477 banks and thrifts it insures. The amount of their combined assets ticked up to $17.7 trillion. These assets – mostly loans but also investments of all kinds – include $3.6 trillion in securities (not including the securities in their trading accounts). And banks got hit by the biggest quarterly losses on those securities since the first quarter of 2009. Banks designate these securities either as “held-to-maturity” securities (valued at “amortized cost” or book value) and “available-for-sale” securities (valued at “fair value,” such as market value). For Q3, these were their unrealized losses – meaning, banks have not yet sold the securities:

• Available-for-sale securities: $51.5 billion in unrealized losses, or 2% of their amortized cost, as the FDIC said, “the highest loss level since first quarter 2009.” • Held-to-maturity securities: $32.8 billion in unrealized losses. • Both combined: $84.3 billion in unrealized losses. Note the damage done in 2018, after years of big gains: $83.4 billion in Q3; $66.4 billion in Q2; and about $55 billion in Q1; for a total so far this year about $200 billion in unrealized losses.

Read more …

And Draghi went for negative rates. One for the history books.

European Banks’ €300 Billion Race To The Bottom (BBG)

As we approach the end of a dismal year for European stocks, the question is: which sector had the worst year of them all? With a few trading sessions left before the end of 2018, banks and autos are in a tight race to the bottom. As of Thursday’s close, lenders are the biggest losers, with a quarter of their market value down the drain, a wipeout of roughly 300 billion euros in shareholders’ money. Banks haven’t seen such a bad year since the heat of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis in 2011. As the final ECB meeting of the year confirmed, the central bank will keep rates unchanged at least until next summer and the grim outlook for the sector highlighted in one of our earlier Taking Stock columns remains valid.

Any attempt by the sector to break out from its downward trend in 2018 has so far failed. Perhaps it’s not a surprise as banks face a wall of worry from investors and nothing seems to be able to help them move forward. Repeated calls from some analysts that the sector is cheap hasn’t triggered any significant buying. A good example is Credit Suisse’s buyback and dividend announcement on Wednesday. That didn’t even raise investors’ interest with the stock hovering near its low. While any return of capital to shareholders is welcome, the dark clouds over its investment banking outlook seemed to weigh more.

Here’s the grim silver lining: …it doesn’t matter much to the rest of the market: Since the financial crisis a decade ago, the influence of banks over the broader European gauge has fallen dramatically, to a point where they now barely move the Stoxx 600. So what could help the shares regain their vigor? Although merger talk seems to find fruitful (speculative) ground, large cross-border deals remain a fantasy. But domestic love stories might be one theme to keep an eye on next year. Most prominent is the ongoing chatter about Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, the worst and third-worst performing stocks in the Stoxx 600 Banks index. While any merger is far from certain, market reaction shows that investors, or at least algos and punters, are betting on any consolidation as the last resort to improve bottom-lines.

And if you are gloating at the “fortress balance sheet” US banks, as BMO’s Brad Wishak notes, price and time are playing a familair hand in US bank stocks… Finally, BofAML strategists summed it all up very succinctly this week: “What we learned in 2018: That central banks trump everything, when global liquidity peaked in Q1, markets peaked; that we remain in a deflationary world which cannot handle a 10-year Treasury yield above 3%; That investors have no satisfactory answers to the existential questions of ‘If not stocks, what?’, ‘If not tech, what?’ ‘If not the U.S. dollar, what?'”…

Read more …

Sometimes you wonder if even a grand jubilee could change this.

Global Debt Hits All-Time High Of $184,000,000,000,000 (RT)

The world’s debt currently exceeds $86,000 per person on average, according to the IMF. The US, China, and Japan are the top three global borrowers, accounting for more than half of the global debt. The IMF has calculated that their share of debt exceeds that of output. It stated that the emergence of China among the top ranking is, however, a relatively new development. Since the beginning of the millennium, China’s share in global debt surged from less than three percent to over 15 percent, underscoring the rapid credit surge in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. According to the IMF, global debt has reached a record high of $184 trillion in nominal terms.

That’s the equivalent of 225 percent of the world GDP in 2017. The debt figure is $2 trillion higher than the estimated number released by the fund in October, because it includes the debts of several countries who had not previously reported their updated data. “By including both the sovereign and private sides of borrowing for the entire world, the GDD (Global Debt Database) offers an unprecedented picture of global debt in the post-World War II era,” said the IMF. GDD is a comprehensive dataset covering public and private debt for 190 countries dating back to the 1950s.

Read more …

As I write this, things seem to be quiet still.

Act V: Yellow Vests Prepare For Massive ‘Macron Resign’ Protest (RT)

Paris is bracing for yet another round of Yellow Vest protests, with demonstrators planning to take to the streets on Saturday. More than 10,000 people have already RSVP’d on Facebook to the ‘Acte 5: Macron Démission’ march. The demonstration is scheduled to take place in the French capital on the Champs-Élysées. The organizers, consisting of some 15 groups, have outlined their list of demands on Facebook, saying they will continue their action against Macron until all their demands are met. “Our organizations support the demands of tax and social justice brought by the movement of yellow vests.

They call for demonstrations Saturday, December 15, for social justice and tax, for a real democracy, for equal rights, for a true ecological transition…” the planners said in a statement, as quoted by Le Parisien. Similar demonstrations are also expected to take place in other cities across the country. Security officials are gearing up for the protests, with Paris Police Chief Michel Delpuech stating that tens of thousands of cops will be deployed across France, and some 8,000 in Paris. “We need to be prepared for worst-case scenarios,” he said. Delpuech told RTL that authorities are aiming to be in “better control” of the situation than they were last weekend, when more than 125,000 people hit the streets of France, 10,000 of whom protested in Paris.

Read more …

But why should he?

Senior Tories Tell May To Work With Corbyn To Save Her Brexit Deal (Ind.)

Senior Tories have told Theresa May to open talks with Labour as her only hope of salvaging a Brexit deal, after the EU’s outright refusal to renegotiate left her strategy in tatters. A badly bruised prime minister was urged to stop trying to “go it alone”, accept her proposed agreement is dead and that she needs the help of other parties to push through softer exit terms. Nicky Morgan, the former education secretary, told The Independent that “cross-party support and proper discussions” were now essential, while Nick Boles, another former minister, said Ms May “must open cross-party discussions”.

The calls came after EU leaders dealt a devastating blow by scrapping written commitments, designed to help Ms May pass her deal through parliament, after disastrous talks failed to achieve a breakthrough. Brussels’ frustration at the prime minister’s inability to set out clearly what she wanted was laid bare when Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, branded the UK approach “nebulous”. At a press conference, Ms May put a brave face on, insisting her Brexit deal remained on track and that talks in the next few days would achieve “further clarification”.

[..] Jeremy Corbyn said the prime minister had “utterly failed in her attempts to deliver any meaningful changes to her botched deal”, calling for a Commons vote to kill it off without delay “Rather than ploughing ahead and dangerously running down the clock, the prime minister needs to put her deal to a vote next week so parliament can take back control,” he said. Nevertheless, Mr Boles said the route to success for Ms May was cross-party talks to “deliver their support for the deal”.

Read more …

She fled to Europe because she could, not to get anything done. The result is no Commons vote until after Christmas.

Theresa May’s Brexit Strategy Left Brutally Exposed By Brussels Failure (G.)

Theresa May has come home from Brussels empty-handed and without hope of further negotiations over the Irish backstop, with the failure to achieve any kind of breakthrough leaving her brutally exposed. Plans to work over Christmas on a legal guarantee over the temporary nature of the backstop had run into a brick wall, EU officials said, despite May’s claim that she would be holding further talks “in the coming days”. Brussels sources claimed May was just keeping up a pretence that the legal guarantee she had promised rebellious Tory MPs during this week’s leadership challenge was still on the cards.

Without clear evidence that she has made progress, May faces mounting jeopardy in Westminster, with Labour seriously considering tabling a vote of no confidence before Christmas, if it believes the prime minister’s DUP partners might support it. Jeremy Corbyn accused May on Friday of “dangerously running down the clock”. “The last 24 hours have confirmed that Theresa May’s Brexit deal is dead in the water. The prime minister has utterly failed in her attempts to deliver any meaningful changes to her botched deal,” he said. One shadow cabinet member said the moment at which Labour would table a no-confidence vote was getting “much, much closer”, but said it would depend on the stance of the DUP. “We are watching like hawks,” he added.

Read more …

Set up a bipartisan commission and get this solved. The US is a tragic laughing stock.

Affordable Care Act Is Ruled Unconstitutional By A Federal Judge (CNBC)

A federal judge in Texas ruled on Friday the Affordable Care Act unconstitutional, potentially threatening health-care coverage for millions of Americans and setting up a new legal showdown over former President Barack Obama’s signature policy initiative. U.S. District Court Judge Reed O’Connor of Texas issued the decision, declaring that key portions of the legislation were inconsistent with the Constitution. O’Connor’s ruling argued that the health-care law can not stand on its own since Congress last December repealed the individual mandate, which imposed a tax penalty on consumers who went uninsured. The mandate, which remains in effect for 2018, was a key part of ACA legislation, otherwise known as Obamacare. The mandate is the greater of $695 person per adult, or 2.5% of household income.

The lawsuit was backed by the Trump administration, and is likely to be appealed — which could mean the legislation will heard anew by the Supreme Court, which upheld Obamacare in a narrowly divided 2012 ruling. Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Seema Verma told reporters earlier this month that CMS has a plan to protect pre-existing conditions if the law is struck down. A CMS spokesperson late Friday told CNBC, “The recent federal court decision is still moving through the courts, and the exchanges are still open for business and we will continue with open enrollment. There is no impact to current coverage or coverage in a 2019 plan.”

Read more …

Government investigators who refuse to share documents with the House. Not just insane, but by now years of insanity.

Clinton Foundation Oversight Panel Hears Explosive Testimony (RT)

Fraud investigators have exposed the Clinton Foundation’s alleged misdeeds in a Congressional hearing, describing it as a de facto “foreign agent” devoted not to charity but to “advancing the personal interests of its principals.” The Clinton Foundation acted as an agent of foreign governments “early in its life and throughout its existence,” according to testimony by former government forensic investigator John Moynihan, which, if true, would not only render it in violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act but also would violate its nonprofit charter, putting it on the hook for a massive quantity of unpaid taxes. Moynihan and fellow ex-government investigator Lawrence Doyle shared 6,000 pages of evidence with the IRS over 18 months ago, only to be met with silence.

They shared them with the FBI multiple times – ditto. Yet when the pair testified before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, they refused to turn over the documents, stating they did not want to interfere with any ongoing investigations. The committee chairman Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) said witnesses’ reluctance to share all the documents was hardly a “good foundation for truth and transparency,” while Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA) said he felt the duo was “using” the panel for their own benefit. “These are not our facts. They are not your facts. They are the facts of the Clinton Foundation,” said Moynihan, maintaining his interest in the case is purely financial – not political.

Testifying on their findings, Doyle highlighted the Foundation’s alleged “misuse of donated public funds,” explaining that it “falsely attested that it received funds and used them for charitable purposes which was, in fact, not the case. Rather the foundation pursued in an array of activities both domestically and abroad,” which included activities “properly characterized as profit-oriented and taxable undertakings of private enterprise, again failing the operational tests of philanthropy referenced above,” referring to the equally non-charitable pursuit of funding the Clinton Presidential Library. John Huber, appointed by former Attorney General Jeff Sessions to investigate the Clinton Foundation after Sessions recused himself from doing so, was conspicuously absent from the hearing, even though his job is to probe Clinton’s approval of the sale of US uranium assets to Russia.

Read more …

Globalism has been extremely destructive. Hard to defend.

The War Against Globalism (Giraldi)

The idea that republican or democratic government will eventually deteriorate into some form of tyranny is not exactly new. Thomas Jefferson advocated a new revolution every generation to keep the spirit of government accountable to the people alive. Call it what you will – neoliberalism, neoconservatism or globalism – the new world order, as recently deceased President George H.W. Bush once labeled it, characteristically embraces a world community in which there is free trade, free movement of workers and democracy. They all sound like good things but they are authoritarian in nature, destructive of existing communities and social systems while at the same time enriching those who promote the changes.

They have also been the root cause of most of the wars fought since the Second World War, wars to “liberate” people who never asked to be invaded or bombed as part of the process. And there are, of course, major differences between neoliberals and neoconservatives in terms of how one brings about the universal nirvana, with the liberals embracing some kind of process whereby the transformation takes place because it represents what they see, perhaps cynically, as the moral high ground and is recognized as being the right thing to do. The neocons, however, seek to enforce what they define as international standards because the United States has the power to do so in a process that makes it and its allies impossible to challenge.

The latter view is promoted under the phony slogan that “Democracies do not fight other democracies.” The fact that globalists of every type consider nationalism a threat to their broader ambitions has meant that parochial or domestic interests are often disregarded or even rejected. With that in mind, and focusing on two issues – wholesale unwelcome immigration and corrupt government run by oligarchs – one might reasonably argue that large numbers of ordinary citizens now believe themselves to be both effectively disenfranchised and demonstrably poorer as rewarding work becomes harder to find and communities are destroyed through waves of both legal and illegal immigration.

Read more …

I can still hope he succeeds, but it’s getting hard to see how.

Yanis Varoufakis’s Internationalist Odyssey (Nation)

Flanked by a dozen members of DiEM25, the pan-European movement launched in 2016 to “democratize” the continent’s institutions, Varoufakis announced that he would run for a seat representing Germany in the European Parliament. He would make his bid as a Greek, a European, and, you might even say, a Berliner—all to drive home a larger point about the necessity of thinking beyond borders. “No European people can be prosperous and free when other European countries are condemned to the permanent depression that eternal austerity creates,” he said. Persistent unemployment, cuts to welfare, and other suffocating economic policies across the continent help explain why Varoufakis chose Germany—a country he’s best known for antagonizing, precisely over its leaders’ support for austerity, in the fraught negotiations over Greece’s debt in 2015.

These circumstances are also the motivating force behind the Progressive International, an initiative that Varoufakis launched five days later in Burlington, Vermont, with DiEM25 and the Sanders Institute. Building broad-based coalitions takes time, and for now, the Progressive International is just a website with some inspiring language and a video. Its membership is also very Eurocentric. But Varoufakis hopes it will blossom into a global movement that helps leftists create coherent platforms, policies, and parties to defeat the “nationalist international” masterminded by Donald Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon. The logic is simple. Financiers have long had global networks; now, right-wing authoritarians do too, with coordinated social-media strategies and deep pools of dark money funding campaigns and disrupting elections around the globe.

It’s time for the left to go on the offensive and reclaim its tradition of internationalism: in Varoufakis’s words, to “mobilize workers, women, and the disenfranchised around the world” to prevent outright fascism from taking hold. This means local action, but it also means dreaming big. It’s a fuzzy plan, of course, and one that Varoufakis’s critics deem implausible. Aren’t ideas like “democratizing” the European Union and making global finance more “progressive” oxymorons? How will a ragtag group of leftists dream up a new monetary system and an ecological New Deal for the whole world when Goldman Sachs and ExxonMobil call the shots?

Read more …

Nov 122018
 
 November 12, 2018  Posted by at 8:26 pm Primers Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  9 Responses »


Ivan Kramskoy Christ in the desert 1920

 

If and when a former Rothschild banker starts telling us what the words in our respective languages actually mean, beware. Even if he has dozens of professional speech writers and spin doctors to do it for him. And even if the meaning and interpretation of words, though they may seem easily translatable, differ between English, French, German, Russian, Chinese to such an extent that Lost in Translation may appear to be an understatement.

But if you’re that Rothschild banker who became president of France through a process that nobody will ever understand, and you host the 100th commemoration of perhaps the worst war ever in history, to be ‘celebrated’ with ‘leaders’ none of whom have exhibited any memory through their actions of the ‘This must never happen again’ that the war ended with, you can expect to get away with bending both history and language.

Macron’s entire audience was ready for, and willing to absorb, a message that seemed so benevolent and sincere and loving, and that perhaps most of all was yet another jab at one of his guests, the American president. They were eating it up. As long as they can appear to stand together against Trump, they can make their people, their voters, and perhaps even each other forget how divided they themselves are.

It was nothing but one more circus, one more theater piece, albeit this one extremely carefully scripted for many months and by many of the finest directors and script writers France has to offer. The underlying theme: the EU is good, so is the UN, NATO is good etc. The list would include the IMF, World Bank and on and on. Big global institutions are good, the bigger the better, and criticism of them is not.

Macron’s spin doctors had come up with a few choice lines to express these sentiments. And since I couldn’t find anyone who had looked at those lines with anything but silent and blind admiration (undoubtedly only due to the solemn occasion) , please allow me. Here’s some of the things Macron said, the way they were translated into English, according to Anglo media:

 

“The old demons are rising again, ready to complete their task of chaos and of death.” “Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism. Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism.

“In saying, ‘Our interests first, whatever happens to the others’, you erase the most precious thing a nation can have, that which makes it live, that which causes it to be great and that which is most important: its moral values.”

 

Well, yes, the old demons are rising again. Or rather, they have been for years. French arms sales to countries and their often dictatorial leaders who one could classify as ‘nationalists’ have never really abated in the past 100 years. As a country, as a society, at least on the leadership level, nothing has been learned. The only ‘excuse’ Paris could provide for this is that all the other countries who sent away their young and strong to be slaughtered never learned a thing either.

But the spin doctors’ finest hour comes after this: “Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism. Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism.” I’m not a linguist, but I know enough about languages -and so do you- to know this is utter nonsense. You may attempt to find some differences between nationalism and patriotism, if you want, but they will never be each other’s opposite. Unless you either are Macron looking for a catchy line or you write his speeches for him.

Obviously, Macron said this because Trump declared himself a nationalist recently. And Macron could now claim that this means Trump is not a patriot. Which we all know is hollow talk. Because Trump said it while speaking about trade, about the US economy. Which does nothing to ‘prove’ he doesn’t love his country. But that is what Macron suggests. He claims patriots love their country, and since nationalism is the opposite of patriotism, Trump does not love America.

Also, and again referring to Trump without mentioning him (if only he had the guts), Macron alleged that nationalists don’t care one bit about what happens to anyone who’s not a citizen of their country. Whereas it is much more likely to mean -I’m treading softly here- that there are people who look out for their own people first, and others after, and they expect all countries to do the same. Macron does the same. A long way away from “whatever happens to others”.

 

Trump was elected because many Americans feel shortchanged, because jobs have disappeared, because they can’t make ends meet. Macron was elected for largely similar reasons: the existing political system failed to protect people. In many other countries, the exact same dynamics are playing out. Macron’s answer to this is to emphasize -make that celebrate- the importance of the exact institutions that have been instrumental in making it all happen.

Ergo: Macron is a globalist. Or maybe I should say he believes in globalism, before someone chimes in to link this to Judaism. Macron believes in global economies and global institutions, whereas Trump does not. The Donald recognizes that global banks and multinationals are responsible to a large extent for the loss of American jobs to low-wage countries. His tariffs, especially on China, address exactly that. Even if he’s clearly conflicted when it comes to US companies who profit from the exact same thing.

Still, that doesn’t mean Trump is not a patriot. But that is precisely what Macron insinuated on Sunday. According to him, one can’t be both a nationalist and a patriot. He might have done better to let the millions who died a 100 years ago, and whom he commemorated, have their own say on that. Did the unfortunate frail forms bleeding to death in the trenches see themselves as nationalists or patriots? Wouldn’t that have been the last thing on their minds? And doesn’t that question tell the entire story?

Doesn’t it put into perspective Macron’s veiled attacks on Trump while the latter was sitting right there? The wonderboy banker trying to gain some sort of moral superiority over the real estate mogul over the heads and rotten bodies and memories of the French and British AND American troops who died deaths the western world can no longer even imagine (while they actively help inflicting them on Yemen) ? And then the entire media run with how beautiful Macron’s words, nay dedications, were?

100 years after the ‘Never Again’, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and the US are still selling billions worth of arms to regimes they know will abuse them. As long as they get their cut, right? The suggestion that Trump is somehow worse than the rest is ludicrous. If anything Trump is a little better on the warmonger front. He still has to prove that, true. The rest have proven their role already though.

Last thought: Xi Jinping is going out of his way to claim China is opening up its economy. That makes him a globalist, right? And globalists can only be nationalists, according to Macron, never patriots? Can we get someone to ask Xi how he sees this? And what about Vladimir Putin? Russia’s been bounced off the global stage through sanctions and allegations, but perhaps he would still like to be a globalist. So is Putin a nationalist or a patriot? Asking for a friend.

Again, according to Macron, you can’t be both. You think about that. What are you?

 

 

Nov 122018
 


Vincent van Gogh Burning weeds 1883

 

Macron: Nationalism Is A “Betrayal Of Patriotism” (Ind.)
Putin Says Had Good Conversation With Trump In Paris (AFP)
Eastern Ukraine Elects Separatist Leaders As West Rejects Polls (AFP)
May Says Britain Open To ‘Different Relationship’ With Russia (R.)
Boris Johnson Says Britain On Verge Of ‘Total Surrender’ In Brexit Talks (R.)
May Shelves Crunch Brexit Talks With Cabinet (Ind.)
Alibaba Has Record $30.8 Billion In Sales In 24 Hours On Singles Day (CNBC)
Foreign Capital Has Propped Up China’s Currency. What If It Leaves? (CFR)
What Plunging Oil Prices Tell Us About The Stock Market And Global Economy (MW)
A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility (Mauldin)

 

 

As Macron nears record low approval rating for a French president, he lectures the world through a game of semantics. The ‘brilliance’ is that while not many could have told you the difference between nationalism and patriotism, Macron claims to have it down. Even if it has to be translated into dozens of languages, each of which may have slightly different interpretations of the -local- meaning of the words. Macron has good speech writers, but they don’t write in all the languages involved. So it’s merely semantics. The terms mean to everyone what they want them to mean.

The take-away: according to Macron, patriotism can exist along globalism, nationalism cannot. A jibe against Trump. Which also means that because Xi Jinping touts globalism all the time, we must accept, if we follow Macron, that he is not a nationalist, but a patriot.

Macron: Nationalism Is A “Betrayal Of Patriotism” (Ind.)

Emmanuel Macron has issued a hard-hitting warning about the dangers of nationalism and of countries that put their interests before the collective good – in front of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The French president denounced those who evoke nationalist sentiment to disadvantage others, calling it a “betrayal of patriotism” and moral values. The US and Russian leaders listened in silence as Mr Macron took a swipe at the rising tide of populism in the US and Europe, warning: “The old demons are rising again, ready to complete their task of chaos and of death.” During a gathering of dozens of world leaders to mark 100 years since the end of the First World War, the French president went on: “Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism. Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism.

“In saying, ‘Our interests first, whatever happens to the others’, you erase the most precious thing a nation can have, that which makes it live, that which causes it to be great and that which is most important: its moral values.” [..] In a speech lasting nearly 20 minutes, Mr Macron also called on fellow leaders to fight for peace. “Ruining this hope with a fascination for withdrawal, violence or domination would be a mistake for which future generations would rightly find us responsible,” he said. The French leader also defended the European Union and the United Nations, which he said guaranteed peace and enshrined “a spirit of cooperation to defend the common property of a world whose destiny is inextricably linked”.

Read more …

Okay, is Putin a nationalist or a patriot? He seems to like globalism, but he likes Russia better. And he’s been pushed out of globalism through sanctions and tall tales.

Putin Says Had Good Conversation With Trump In Paris (AFP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he had a brief but good conversation with US leader Donald Trump at World War I centenary events in Paris, Russian media reported. When journalists asked Putin whether he managed to speak to Trump on Sunday, he said: “Yes,” Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported. Asked how it went, Putin said: “Well.” He did not provide further details, but the French presidency said the pair had a wide-ranging discussion during lunch after the commemoration. Host and French President Emmanuel Macron was there and German Chancellor Angela Merkel took part in some of the exchanges, the presidency said.

Subjects discussed included the situation in the Middle East, notably Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and North Korea. White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said Trump had sat with world leaders including Putin, Macron and Merkel at lunch and the group had held “very good and productive discussions”. “The leaders discussed a variety of issues, including the INF (nuclear treaty), Syria, trade, the situation in Saudi Arabia, sanctions, Afghanistan, China, and North Korea,” she said. Expectations have been growing for a new Trump-Putin meeting as tensions pile up over the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and US sanctions against Moscow.

Read more …

Macron and Merkel: “These so-called elections undermine the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine..”

Wasn’t it John McCain and Vcitoria Nuland who undermined it back in 2014 on Maidan Square?

Eastern Ukraine Elects Separatist Leaders As West Rejects Polls (AFP)

People in Russian-backed areas of eastern Ukraine re-elected separatist leaders at the weekend, according to results released Monday of polls condemned as illegal by Kiev and Western countries. Elections in the Donetsk and Lugansk “People’s Republics”, controlled by separatists since breaking away from Ukraine’s pro-Western government in 2014, took place after the killing of the rebel Donetsk “president” in a bomb attack in August. Security was tight for Sunday’s vote with gun-toting, camouflage-clad guards deployed to ensure order. Denis Pushilin, the 37-year-old acting Donetsk leader, was elected with 61 percent of the vote with almost all ballots counted, the local electoral commission said. Leonid Pasechnik, the acting Lugansk leader, took 68 percent of the vote.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel branded the vote “illegal and illegitimate” following a meeting with Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of World War I commemorations also attended by Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Sunday. “These so-called elections undermine the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine,” the pair said in a joint statement. Washington and Brussels had asked Russia not to allow the polls to go ahead, arguing they would further hamper efforts to end a conflict that has killed more than 10,000 people since 2014. “The people in eastern Ukraine will be better off within a unified Ukraine at peace rather than in a second-rate police state run by crooks and thugs, all subsidized by Russian taxpayers,” tweeted Kurt Volker, the US special envoy to Ukraine, on the day of the polls.

Read more …

if only they confess to the narratives Britain has spouted without evidence.

May Says Britain Open To ‘Different Relationship’ With Russia (R.)

Prime Minister Theresa May will say on Monday Britain is “open to a different relationship” with Russia if Moscow takes a new path and stops “attacks” that undermine international treaties and security. Just a year ago, May used her annual speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet to accuse Moscow of military aggression and of meddling in elections, some of her strongest criticism even before the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Salisbury. This year, she will tell London’s financial center that the action taken since – including the largest ever coordinated expulsion of Russian intelligence officers – has deepened her belief in a “collective response” to such threats.

“We will continue to show our willingness to act, as a community of nations, to stand up for the rules around the world,” May will say, according to excerpts of her speech. Describing evolving threats, May will say the past year, including Salisbury, has “shown that while the challenge is real, so is the collective resolve of likeminded partners to defend our values, our democracies, and our people.” “But, as I also said a year ago, this is not the relationship with Russia that we want … We remain open to a different relationship – one where Russia desists from these attacks that undermine international treaties and international security,” she will say.

Read more …

Boris still wants to be King.

Boris Johnson Says Britain On Verge Of ‘Total Surrender’ In Brexit Talks (R.)

Former British foreign minister Boris Johnson accused Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday of forcing through a deal that would keep the country locked in the European Union’s customs union after Brexit in what he described as a “total surrender”. “I really can’t believe it but this government seems to be on the verge of total surrender,” he wrote in his weekly column in the Telegraph newspaper. “I want you to savour the full horror of this capitulation … we are on the verge of signing up for something even worse than the current constitutional position. These are the terms that might be enforced on a colony.”

Read more …

Unsolved issues.

May Shelves Crunch Brexit Talks With Cabinet (Ind.)

Theresa May has been forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit deal, after fresh opposition at home and abroad plunged her timetable into turmoil. The prime minister shelved the meeting, pencilled in for Monday, slamming on the brakes after fierce resistance in her cabinet and in Brussels threatened to derail the path to an agreement. A government source conceded that an outline deal might not be ready by Tuesday – making it increasingly unlikely that a special EU summit to sign it off can be held in November, as hoped.

That would leave the UK having to ramp up hugely expensive no-deal preparations and in danger of being unable to pass all necessary legislation before the Brexit deadline next March. At home, Ms May faced an open challenge to her plans from Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader, who vowed the UK “cannot be held against its will” by the backstop plan for the Irish border. Ms Leadsom became the second cabinet minister to insist on a unilateral power to escape being bound in the EU customs union – something explicitly ruled out by Brussels.

Read more …

1.35 billion packages delivered.

Alibaba Has Record $30.8 Billion In Sales In 24 Hours On Singles Day (CNBC)

Alibaba on Sunday tore through last year’s Singles Day sales record, racking up more than $30.8 billion in the 24-hour shopping event. Gross merchandise value (GMV), a figure that shows sales across the Chinese e-commerce giant’s various shopping platforms, surpassed last year’s $25.3 billion record at around 5:34 p.m. SIN/HK (4:34 a.m. ET) on Sunday, and kept marching higher through the rest of the day. In Chinese currency terms, GMV totaled 213.5 billion yuan, easily beating last year’s figure of 168.2 billion yuan and representing a nearly 27 percent year-on-year rise. That was, however, smaller than the 39 percent year-on-year growth recorded in 2017.

Alibaba’s Singles Day GMV beat last year’s figure in yuan terms earlier than it toppled the dollar record. The Chinese currency is weaker against the greenback from a year ago, which means more sales in yuan are required to get the same dollar amount. It was the 10th edition of the annual Singles Day event, which is also called the Double 11 shopping festival because it falls on Nov. 11. During the 24-hour period, Alibaba offered huge discounts across its e-commerce sites such as Tmall. Alibaba’s Singles Day sales haul easily exceeded the spending by consumers during any single U.S. shopping holiday.

Read more …

Wait! Shadows?

Foreign Capital Has Propped Up China’s Currency. What If It Leaves? (CFR)

“I think China’s manipulating their currency, absolutely,” President Trump said back in August. Yet the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was, and has been, intervening to keep the RMB up, and not to push it down, as Trump was alleging. And we believe such interventions are about to get much larger. Here is why. Over the past two years, as our left-hand figure below shows, foreign portfolio investors have piled prodigiously into Chinese assets, helping to support the RMB. But history suggests this trend is about to reverse. While inflows have been rising, Chinese stocks have been tumbling—they are down over 20 percent from their January peak. Dreadful performance like this typically drives funds out of emerging markets. We may be seeing the beginning of such outflows in China.

Repatriation of liquid foreign capital will make it far more challenging for China to keep its currency up. Of course, China could change course and let it fall, but that risks exacerbating the foreign-debt burden of its highly leveraged corporates. It could raise interest rates, but that would further slow a slowing economy. It could, to keep capital at home, demand higher returns on its foreign lending, but that would mean sacrificing its efforts to subsidize its companies operating abroad, as well those aimed at putting dollars to the service of geostrategic objectives—like Belt and Road. n short, then, there is every reason to expect that the PBoC will boost its support for the RMB by selling dollar reserves.

This is what it did back in 2015, when a plunging stock market scared away foreign capital. So in spite of President’s Trump’s repeated charges that China is manipulating its currency for competitive advantage in trade, all evidence suggests that it will continue to do the opposite. But if China were to sell reserves at the same pace as in 2015, its reserve levels would, by mid-2020, actually fall below the safety threshold implied by the IMF’s framework for reserve adequacy—as shown in the right-hand figure above.

Read more …

Not much for now. Oil rising this morning on Saudi cuts promised.

What Plunging Oil Prices Tell Us About The Stock Market And Global Economy (MW)

What the heck happened to oil prices? But more significantly, what does it mean for the broader stock market and the global economy? That is what has some Wall Street investors scratching their noggins, as crude futures and U.S. stocks staged a tandem tumble this week, just when investors thought the worst was over following a bruising October for risk assets. Now, oil futures are unraveling, down at least 20% after putting in a 52-week high early last month. And it isn’t so much the descent into bear-market territory—as the recent slump for crude can be characterized—as it is the celerity of the selloff that has market participants unsettled.

About five weeks: That’s all it took for bulls to pivot from cavalierly pondering if $100-a-barrel oil was a genuine possibility before the end of 2018 on the back of Iranian oil export sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Nov. 4, to wondering how ugly the current implosion in black gold could get before finding a bottom. On Friday, West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery lost 48 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $60.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, for the lowest front-month contract settlement since March 8, according to FactSet data. Prices lost 4.7% for the week, tallying their fifth straight weekly drop. The 10th session decline in a row matched the longest skid since 1984.

But beyond that, the most important question is this: What does oil’s decline really mean? That is the query that Yves Lamoureux, president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., posed to MarketWatch via email last week as the decline in oil was gaining steam. “Very large monthly down moves in crude oil has often heralded something more ominous,” he wrote on Nov. 1. “Most market observers think there is enough damage to see a bottom in stocks. Consensus therefore looks for new record highs or a solid bounce back. We strongly disagree with this perspective.”

Read more …

No doubt there. But it’ll start somewhere.

A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility (Mauldin)

Is debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.” Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash yet. Whether it’s wise or not depends on what you buy. Debt to educate yourself so you can get a better job may be a good idea. Borrowing money to finance your vacation? Probably not. The problem is that many people, businesses, and governments borrow because they can. It’s been possible in the last decade only because central banks made it so cheap. It was rational in that respect. But it is growing less so as the central banks start to tighten. Earlier this year, I wrote a series of articles predicting a debt “train wreck” and eventual liquidation. I dubbed it “The Great Reset.”

I estimated we have another year or two before the crisis becomes evident. Now I’m having second thoughts. Recent events tell me the reckoning could be closer than I thought just a few months ago. Central banks enable debt because they think it will generate economic growth. Sometimes it does. The problem is they create debt with little regard for how it will be used. That’s how we get artificial booms and subsequent busts. We are told not to worry about absolute debt levels so long as the economy is growing in line with them. That makes sense. A country with a larger GDP can carry more debt. But that is increasingly not what is happening. Let me give you two data points.

Lacy Hunt tracks data that shows debt is losing its ability to stimulate growth. In 2017, one dollar of non-financial debt generated only 40 cents of GDP in the US. It’s even less elsewhere. This is down from more than four dollars of growth for each dollar of debt 50 years ago. This has seriously worsened over the last decade. China’s debt productivity dropped 42.9% between 2007 and 2017. That was the worst among major economies, but others lost ground, too. All the developed world is pushing on the same string and hoping for results. Now, if you are used to using debt to stimulate growth, and debt loses its capacity to do so, what happens next? You guessed it: The brilliant powers-that-be add even more debt.

Read more …